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Inside Global Aerospace & Defense Boom: 12 Takeaways From World's Most Important Airshow
The Farnborough International Airshow is coming to a close in the UK, marking the end of one of the aerospace and defense industry's top gatherings. Institutional research desks have had boots on the ground, tracking commercial-aircraft orders, defense procurement and other industry trends.
A team of Citi analysts led by John Godyn attended Farnborough earlier this week and reported back to clients Thursday morning.
Their findings pointed to accelerating missile demand and a wave of new aircraft orders that could fuel a stronger and more robust growth cycle for aerospace and defense companies.
Godyn highlighted the event's key takeaways, giving clients a clearer picture of the aerospace and defense industries heading into fall and 2027:
1) Aftermarket channel checks across multiple companies extend recent strength.
We spoke with a wide range of aftermarket exposed companies including engine manufacturers, parts/component manufacturers, MROs, and aircraft lessors. Consistently, across all meetings, companies expressed the view that the key themes driving aftermarket continue including: (1) low retirement rates, (2) high lease renewals and tight secondary market trends for AC/engines, (3) strong demand for lift from global airline customers, (4) capacity constrained MROs, and (5) no impact from the conflict in the Middle-East. Given how strong recent trends have been, companies did caution that mean reversion to long term growth rates, which GE described as LDD revenue growth and many non-engine aftermarket players described as HSD revenue growth, was inevitable. We view the read-through as clearly positive across multiple stocks in our aftermarket coverage (GE/RTX/VSEC/LOAR/HEI) and EU analyst Conor Dwyer echoed that sentiment for Safran's 2026. To be fair, we note that investor expectations are already set for continued beats in this category of stock so the bar isn't obviously low.
2) M&A heating up?
Multiple companies we spoke to described an M&A backdrop that is much more active with many deals coming to market. Management teams described multiple drivers with notable emphasis on self-help activities at corporates focused on ramping production leading to non-core assets or underperforming suppliers being put up for sale, as well as PE-owned assets coming to market. We get the sense from most of our companies that the Aero M&A pipeline remains robust and multiple companies expect M&A to be a larger driver of growth. Valuations were regularly cited as reasonably full, but there remain opportunities to find deals at reasonable prices.
3) Airbus Next-Gen has been a dominant theme throughout the week.
The next generation Narrowbody Jet on the part of Airbus has been a ubiquitous theme throughout the week. GE indicated CFM collaboration with Airbus was very active on the RISE program (meeting 2x per month). Other component manufacturers expressed similarly heightened activity and discussion around the next generation Narrowbody Jet. Suppliers described conversations with BA on similar topics to be far earlier stage and having less consistent cadence.
4) GE emphasized more upside on CFM56 aftermarket $ profit and a quicker ramp on LEAP aftermarket $ profit than investors may appreciate.
GE noted that LEAP:CFM56 $ profits should be roughly equal by 2030. GE expects CFM $ profits to continue to grow until 2028 before flattening out, while LEAP $ profits continue to catch up until 2030. LEAP % margin will lag CFM56 even in 2030 and will continue to move higher as the LEAP installed base ages. We see a similar shape in our above-consensus expectations and see the possibility of additional upside as the belief that the aftermarket cycle lasts ultimately proves to be more robust than even GE management expects.
5) GE engine read-through positive.
The aforementioned CFM56:LEAP view is similar to Conor Dwyer's assumed split for Safran within the next 5 years (he is 45:55 in 2030, reaching 49:51 in 2031). Conor notes that GE was quite relaxed about the threat of rising retirements in the coming years to the CFM56 program, but did note it is managing the risk of rising USM (used serviceable materials) already with slightly slower price increases on the CFM56 vs the LEAP and acknowledged the possibility of risk in 2029-31 (this is a risk Conor highlighted here in 2028).
6) Bullishness on emerging engine technologies was palpable.
Although we did not speak to RTX, we felt that GE upped the volume on its RISE engine and is increasingly and more loudly making the case for the innovative technology. Separately, multiple EVTOL players we met with showed evidence of progress on hybrid-electric engines punctuated by a GE/BETA hybrid-electric engine which was demonstrated live and recently was the first such engine to be tested above 30,000 feet.
7) Demand for accelerating missile production was a frequent topic of conversation.
At face value, this is no surprise, but channel checks emphasized 3 interesting points: (1) targets of 3-10x growth in production by program are likely to prove low because these forecasts do not incorporate international demand, so as 'framework agreements' are definitized, the supply chain is already being asked to ramp even higher to satisfy allies' needs, (2) solutions for scalable hypersonic missile production are being requested, and (3) supplying into emerging affordable mass designs may be a bigger opportunity than initially thought. We continue to believe that Missile Defense/Munitions Replenishment are themes that will exceed expectations for years to come.
8) Positive secondary market trends supportive of aircraft lessors.
In particular: (1) a continued, favorable supply/demand mismatch in the secondary market driving lease rates higher across a wide range of aircraft types, (2) among narrowbodies, notable strength in the A321neo and 737MAX, (3) among widebodies, even greater strength in the A330neo and 787 families of aircraft, (4) a belief among lessors that existing production outlooks across the OEMs are unlikely to be a meaningful headwind to secondary market trends until the end of the decade, and (5) the view that a lack of customer support will dissuade airframe OEMs from pursuing new clean sheet designs this decade. In totality, these channel checks were not only positive for AER, but also much of our aerospace coverage.
9) Are 737 -7 and -10 certifications imminent?
Suppliers to whom we spoke expressed a tremendous amount of confidence in rate increases at BA in the short/medium-term. Suppliers also felt that events supportive of BA's case for raising rates, namely the -7/10 certifications, were likely to happen sooner rather than later.
10) ETN mentioned that Aero could be in a historic "feast" cycle.
ETN Aero Management mentioned that it expects 16 new Aero-focused platforms launching over the next ten years vs. the last big Aero cycle in the 2000s where only five were launched. The majority of the new expected platforms will be military, and ETN Management seems confident that the company can enjoy considerable content on these platforms. We sense Management is particularly excited about the Bell MV-75 Helicopter program and the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program (CCA), although these programs are still in the early stages in terms of ramp up for ETN.
11) Aero supply chain slowly healing but will be tested with further rate increases.
In general, nearly every company we spoke to described the current aerospace supply chain as healthy and struggled to identify any major problem areas. In fact, being part of the solution was cited as an opportunity by many, such as VSEC, DCO, and HEI. Separately, both PH and ETN mentioned an increased focus on dual/multi-sourcing, which is leading to greater supply chain resiliency. Anecdotes of supply chain issues don't seem widespread, and we also think Aero suppliers are increasingly leaning on improved software, electronics, and even additive manufacturing to further support the Aero manufacturing food chain. That said, the topic of defense orders using DPAS at some point in the future did come up as a risk factor that was cited as a realistic scenario that could disrupt the aero supply chain.
12) Aerospace suppliers' ability to price still strong.
Suppliers throughout the A&D supply chain described negotiations as much more focused on availability, performance, quality, and on-time delivery rather than price and margins. We get the sense that A&D suppliers will continue to outpace inflation with solid pricing and likely expanding margins without much pushback. Pricing muscle seemed to improve substantially during the COVID supply chain "crunch"" and that has allowed suppliers to continue to rea
Another potential tailwind for the defense industry emerged Wednesday, when House Republicans narrowly passed the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, authorizing a record $1.15 trillion in military spending.
The measure passed 216-212, largely along party lines. While it is below President Trump's $1.5 trillion budget request, it still is a jump from the roughly $900 billion last year.
🚨 JUST IN: The US House has just PASSED the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) — with the SAVE AMERICA ACT ATTACHED — sending it to the Senate before it heads to President Trump's desk
Final vote: 216-212
7 Republican NAYs, while 6 Democrats voted YEA pic.twitter.com/LrNfKVGBZL
The NDAA faces an uncertain future in the Senate, where Democrats are expected to oppose its cost and several controversial policy provisions.
Related coverage:
If passed in the Senate and signed by Trump, the spending surge would provide tailwinds for defense stocks.
The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) has moved up and to the right, reflecting the boom in military spending as multiple wars rage across Eurasia. The global boom in defense spending has a lot more room to run.
ITA's next leg up will require a sustained upside break above the $250 level.
Professional subscribers can read military trends notes at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
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India's Fuel Exports Set To Soar In July As Refining Margins Jump
By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,
India is on track to export the highest volume of refined petroleum products in months as refining margins have jumped with the re-escalation of the Middle East conflict.
India is estimated to ship as many as 1.55 million barrels per day (bpd) of light and middle distillates in July, per data by commodity analysts Kpler cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell.
The July volumes would be nearly double the fuel export volumes of just 866,000 bpd in May, when the Strait of Hormuz crisis hit crude supplies to India and the rest of Asia. In May, India saw its lowest fuel exports in four years.
The tightening fuel markets in Asia and the rest of the world added to a renewed rally in refining margins after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed two weeks ago. This has encouraged Indian refiners to ramp up refined petroleum exports.
The expected volumes in July would be the second-highest level in Kpler’s data series dating back to 2017.
Earlier this month, Kpler estimated that India’s refined petroleum exports would hit in July the highest level since September 2025 as refiners race to capture soaring margins amid tight Asian fuel markets.
India’s high export levels in July could ease some of the pressure on the Asian fuel market, but not all of it, as crude supplies from the Middle East are once again at high risk of delay.
Asian refiners that had bet on a flood of crude supply from the Middle East in August are now faced with potential delays in deliveries amid the re-escalation of hostilities, which could thwart their plans to ramp up crude processing rates in the coming weeks.
Refiners in the U.S. and Europe are operating at near capacity, but those in Asia may not see the expected increase in throughput now that the July and August loadings and delivery schedules have been upended by the re-escalation of the Middle East conflict.
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Deaths Now Outnumber Births In 17 US States
Natural population growth is slowing across much of America.
According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimates, 17 states recorded more deaths than births between July 2024 and July 2025, up from only four states during much of the 2010s.
Using U.S. Census Bureau data, Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld created this map showing natural population change in every state.
Because the measure excludes domestic and international migration, it highlights where population growth increasingly depends on people moving in.
Natural Population Change by StateThe table below ranks every state by natural population change between July 2024 and July 2025, highlighting where births continued to outpace deaths—and where they no longer did.
State Natural Population ChangeJul 2024–Jul 2025 Pennsylvania -10,708 West Virginia -7,887 Maine -5,019 Michigan -4,998 Oregon -3,764 Mississippi -2,607 Alabama -2,188 New Hampshire -2,167 New Mexico -1,885 Vermont -1,769 Florida -1,333 Arkansas -1,224 Ohio -729 Delaware -554 Rhode Island -304 Montana -90 Kentucky -83 Missouri 177 Wyoming 295 South Carolina 564 Wisconsin 1,161 Hawaii 2,024 Connecticut 2,283 District of Columbia 2,516 Oklahoma 2,559 South Dakota 2,605 North Dakota 2,630 Louisiana 2,774 Iowa 2,949 Nevada 3,051 Alaska 3,308 Tennessee 3,597 Kansas 4,951 Nebraska 6,136 Idaho 6,900 Massachusetts 8,419 Indiana 8,561 Illinois 10,903 Maryland 11,444 Minnesota 12,071 Virginia 13,817 North Carolina 15,129 Washington 17,230 Colorado 20,608 Utah 24,961 New Jersey 26,023 Georgia 28,631 Arizona 20,914 New York 42,815 California 109,715 Texas 157,711
Pennsylvania recorded the nation’s largest natural decline (-10.7K), followed by West Virginia, Maine, and Michigan. Most states with natural decreases were concentrated in the Northeast and Appalachia, regions that include several states with some of the country’s oldest populations.
Florida also recorded more deaths than births, yet remained one of America’s fastest-growing states because of migration.
The South remained the engine of natural population growth. Texas (+158K), Georgia (+29K), and North Carolina (+15K) posted strong gains. California (+110K) and New York (+43K) also recorded far more births than deaths despite slower overall population growth.
America’s Population Is Increasingly Shaped by MigrationNatural population change tells only part of the story.
Several states with more deaths than births, including Florida, Maine, and Pennsylvania, can still grow overall when migration offsets their natural decline. Others continue losing population even after attracting newcomers.
Meanwhile, states such as Texas, North Carolina, and Arizona benefit from both natural population growth and migration, helping drive some of the country’s fastest population gains.
As America’s population ages and birth rates remain historically low, natural population growth is becoming less common. For a growing number of states, migration—not births—is now the primary driver of population growth, making migration trends increasingly important to their long-term demographic outlook.
To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on immigration’s role in U.S. population growth by state.
Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 05:45