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Betting Against The House?
By Bas van Geffen, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank
Brent futures broke through $100 per barrel after a series of attacks in the Middle East raise concerns that the conflict could intensify again. Iran said that it is ready to escalate its counterstrikes if the US continues to attack its territory and infrastructure. Parliament speaker Ghalibaf warned that Iran’s next targets are US oil and gas company assets in the region. The Houthis already struck energy facilities in Saudi Arabia in a direct response to the US attacking several Iranian oil tankers.
Adding to the energy price pressures, the European gas benchmark briefly surpassed €80/MWh. Ukrainian drones forced closures at Russian ports. Moreover, Russia’s TASS news agency reported a fire at the Yamal energy site. TTF futures receded to €79 on reports that the LNG terminal was not damaged in the strikes.
Nonetheless, the fact that Ukraine is now targeting gas facilities deep inside Russia’s territory creates substantial risks for the European energy outlook. The Yamal facility is a major LNG production and liquification plant, and a key supplier to Europe. It shipped almost 10 million tons of LNG to the EU in the first half of the year.
These renewed energy price pressures add to the inflation concerns that have been weighing down global fixed income. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.83% and the 30-year bond touched 5.30%, testing Treasury Secretary Bessent’s pain threshold ahead of a bond auction today. When the 30-year yield surpassed 5.30% in August, Bessent announced an expansion of the Treasury buyback operations, which effectively changes a liquidity management tool into a potential instrument for market interventions.
However, this week’s operation disappointed. Yesterday, the US Treasury announced that it will buy back $6 billion in longer-dated Treasury notes today. Although that is three times the normal size, the operation is at the lower end of the $5-8 billion that the market had expected. So, Bessent may have warned yen traders that “he is the house now […] and you can bet against me if you want,” but fixed income traders are still testing how deep the house’s pockets are, and if he is willing to spend it all.
The White House, meanwhile, seems more than willing to spend. President Trump promised a $5,000 “dividend” to every adult US citizen if the Republican party retains control of both houses of Congress. The plan emphasises the pressure that Trump –who denies voters face an affordability crisis– is under ahead of the midterm elections.
Based on Census Bureau population estimates, this promise would cost upwards of $1 trillion. Not only would that add to the $40 trillion in existing debt, but it could also exhaust all the room left until the US hits the debt ceiling – adding to the default risks. However, Congress would have to approve Trump’s plan and his previous “tariff dividend” also failed to gain support on Capitol Hill.
Indeed, Republican senators are already trying to modify Trump’s plan.
So, investors largely shrugged off Trump’s idea as unlikely to happen. Yet, the uncertainty may still add to US term premia at the margin, at a time when markets are already testing the Treasury Secretary’s resolve.
Rising yields are forcing difficult decisions everywhere, as governments face higher interest bills and deteriorating public finances. Choices can be politically expensive, but not making any choices will cost hard currency.
UK Prime Minister Burnham told said that “national security cannot come at the expense of social security.” Yet, it must be paid for somehow. The prime minister suggested he would get the welfare costs down “the Labour way,” that is, by reforming and changing the system instead of simply cutting benefits.
Burnham promised to present a sound plan, but the added fiscal uncertainty weighed on Gilt yields, at a time when global yields are already rising. This is not quite a Liz Truss moment, but the 30-year yield rose 7 basis points on the day.
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Existing Home Sales Slump (Again) In August, Supply Hits 10 Year High
Existing home sales tumbled for the 3rd straight month in August, falling 2.0% MoM, sparking its biggest annual decline since January...
This implied an annualized rate of 3.98 million in August, marking one of only two times since the fall of 2024 that sales have dipped below 4 million...
“Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions, so it's not surprising to see a mild dip in home buying activity due to high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
“Still, home prices are rising, and existing home sales are actually up 1.6% year-to-date through the first eight months of the year..." Yun noted.
"Homebuying demand, despite higher interest rates, is no doubt being supported by rising wages, which grew 3.1% in August, along with 643,000 net new jobs added since the start of the year. Job creation and wage growth typically drive housing demand.”
The median sales price rose 1.6% from a year ago to $429,100, extending a streak of annual price increases dating back to mid-2023.
Finally, and more ominously, Yun continued, “The number of months it would take to exhaust the total inventory at the current sales pace has grown to 4.9 months’ supply - its highest level in over ten years. The ample supply of homes for sale on the market is giving homebuyers better opportunities to negotiate.”
A rate-hike is just what the housing market wants (or will Warsh's credibility be regained and lower the long-end?)
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After AfD Victory In Saxony-Anhalt, Merz And Weidel Trade Blows During Intense Debate In Bundestag
Three days after the Alternative for Germany's (AfD) landslide in Saxony-Anhalt, the Bundestag's general budget debate turned into a verbal battle between AfD co-chair Alice Weidel and Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with the two battling it out over mass immigration, democracy, crime, Ukraine, and the future of Germany.
Heckling filled the chamber. Bundestag President Julia Klöckner repeatedly intervened. The exchange was the first direct parliamentary clash between the two leaders since Sunday's vote, in which the AfD took 43.8 percent and the CDU collapsed to 17.2 percent.
Weidel opened the debate and treated the election results as a verdict on the ruling federal government coalition led by Merz. "The voters in Saxony-Anhalt have made it abundantly clear to you, in the language of the democratic sovereign: the Black-Red coalition is over," she said. Citizens wanted "a change of policy," she added, "and they do not want more of the same."
🇩🇪🔴JUST IN: After AfD's landslide victory, Weidel tells Merz that "the voters in Saxony-Anhalt have communicated to you in the language of the democratic sovereign with all clarity: Black-Red (CDU-SPD ruling coalition) is over."
She slammed the government's new budget during a… pic.twitter.com/i9JCrhBDin
Addressing Merz directly, she said he had failed to hear that message.
"That is not especially relevant, because your time has run out anyway. Citizens want a change of policy, and they will get it," she said.
She turned next to the draft federal budget. Weidel called it a "declaration of surrender" and accused Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of "unserious budget management."
"Despite record tax revenues, you are incapable of managing the public's money wisely. Why? Because you are unwilling to free yourselves from the shackles of green ideology, left-wing mass migration, and socialist redistribution."
She said the CDU-SPD government planned more than €1 trillion in new borrowing over its term, a figure she described as unprecedented in the Federal Republic. The result, she argued, would destroy future room for maneuver and leave "scorched earth."
"You are driving Germany into national bankruptcy in record time," she said.
Weidel also continued to slam Merz on mass migration, a sore spot for the ruling government.
"You declare the migration crisis to be over. Yet, every year, a six-figure number of migrants enters the country through the back door of asylum, plus another major city through family reunification - most of them from Muslim tribal cultures," she stated, adding: "More than a million refugees live whose asylum application has been rejected more than once. What are these people actually still doing in this country? They should be deported!"
Weidel accused the coalition of declaring the crisis over while still admitting large numbers of people through asylum procedures and family reunification. She claimed more than a million people whose asylum claims had already been rejected remained in the country and should be deported. Ordinary workers, she said, were paying the price.
"Because [Germans] have to deal daily with the consequences of mass migration, with the hatred of foreign groups toward their own, with hatred of Christians, with hatred of Germans, with hatred of Germany, and you are even providing financial support to these people. This must finally come to an end!"
🇩🇪🔴 After AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt, Alice Weidel takes Chancellor Merz to task during a raucous debate.
"Because [Germans] have to deal daily with the consequences of mass migration, with the hatred of foreign groups toward their own, with hatred of Christians, with… pic.twitter.com/lBjLNPt9hM
Energy policy drew the sharpest interjections from the government benches. Weidel called the energy transition "the greatest millstone dragging our economy into the abyss" and "lost, burned money." Germany, she said, was facing a possible winter gas shortage after the destruction of Nord Stream 2 while still sending billions to Ukraine. She demanded renewed Russian gas deliveries, a return to nuclear power, and peace talks.
"While the United States is making another attempt to end the murderous Ukraine war, you are stepping up the war propaganda and the confrontation with Russia," she told the chancellor. When SPD deputies laughed, she snapped: "Do you find that funny? Voters out there can see that the SPD finds deindustrialization funny. So stop laughing."
Merz respondsMerz came out swinging against Weidel, conceding the Saxony-Anhalt result was "remarkable," but said the AfD had missed its actual goal: an absolute majority of seats.
"Fifty-six percent of voters in Saxony-Anhalt did not vote for you," he said. "And you will not achieve that anywhere in Germany with this policy." He accused Weidel of having pushed lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund, within hours of the polls closing, to seek a governing majority after having promised before the election to govern only with an absolute majority.
"You are, and you will remain, Ms. Weidel, a destructive force," he accused.
The sharpest attack from Merz concerned remigration. He said the concept is "nothing other than a synonym for ethnic cleansing based on origin and skin color."
🇩🇪Germany
The anti-immigration AfD party is pursuing a plan of "ethnic cleansing based on skin color and origin," said Chancellor Friedrich Merz during a Bundestag debate.
Follow: @RMXnews pic.twitter.com/2BFmeSXztH
If that program were carried out, he claimed, skilled trades, nursing homes, hospitals, and restaurants would cease to function, because one in six workers in the crafts already holds a foreign passport and millions of people with a migration background keep essential services running. The coalition, he said, agreed on deporting people without a right to stay, but distinguished between those who work and contribute and those who must leave. AfD deputies erupted. Several shouted that the claim was false.
On Ukraine, Merz accused the AfD of reversing perpetrator and victim. Neither NATO, the European Union nor Germany had threatened Russia, he said.
"The only thing that truly threatens Russia and Putin is the radiance of democracy." The AfD, he added, still stood with Moscow. "Right there runs the deep rift between you and us, in foreign policy, in European policy, in social policy and in peace policy," he said.
He also charged that Weidel had said nothing about a failed drone incident at Leipzig Airport, a hacking attack on Berlin infrastructure, or this year's fires and weather extremes.
"Not a word from you, Ms. Weidel, about what has been going on in this country this year, he accused her.
At one point in Merz's speech, Klöckner told the AfD that heckling is part of parliamentary life, "but it is not part of constantly interrupting a speaker. You also have to accept that there are other opinions."
When the noise continued, she warned one deputy: "We are not on the football pitch here right now. Save this for the weekend." Later she threatened MPs with expulsion. Merz thanked her and said the interruptions themselves showed the AfD's "contempt for the German Bundestag," adding that "listening is not your strong suit."
With the battle brewing over who controls Saxony-Anhalt still to be decided, and with Merz's CDU crashing below 20 percent in the latest poll, political tensions are set to rise in the coming month.
Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 10:00