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Copper Hits All-Time-High As Physical Economy Reprices Scarcity

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Copper Hits All-Time-High As Physical Economy Reprices Scarcity

Copper futures in London reached a record high on Tuesday as expectations of US tariffs drew record volumes from the seaborne market into US warehouses, tightening availability elsewhere despite subdued demand. As we highlighted on Monday, deteriorating conditions across global mining operations are adding to supply woes.

Benchmark three-month futures on the LME gained nearly 1% to reach $14,533 a ton, exceeding January's peak before trimming some of those gains.

Dr. Copper is breaking out...but this isn’t mainly a growth signal.
Tariffs sparked the squeeze. AI power demand could extend it.
Here’s what drives the next leg and what breaks it.https://t.co/tWrYrRYWxy

— The Market Ear (@themarketear) September 8, 2026

The industrial metal, critical for AI and power grid buildouts, has climbed 17% this year and 47% over the past 12 months, according to Bloomberg data.

Veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie reiterated his warning on X that the "physical economy is repricing scarcity in the real world."

Currie, the former Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs and now co-chair of Abaxx Markets, expanded on that idea:

Copper's record-breaking run above $14,500/ton should get everyone's attention. It is the latest sign that the physical economy is repricing scarcity in the real world.

Yes, part of yesterday's move reflects tariff front-running and metal being pulled into US warehouses. But that doesn't paint the whole picture.

Metal stranded in one part of the world is unavailable to everyone outside it. Scarcity is not just about how many tonnes exist, it is about having the tonnes in the right place at the right time.

You cannot build data centres, expand grids, electrify industry or duplicate supply chains without copper. Yet supply cannot respond quickly enough because of the same constraints I have highlighted in the thread below.

This is the latest rotation of the commodity cycle. Last month it was grain. Last week it was diesel. Today it is copper.

Weather, war and policymaking are the three horsemen that have combined against underinvestment (the revenge of the old economy) to create a scarcity problem that shows no signs of being solved. The bears will say the metal exists. Fine. But if it is locked in a warehouse, it is just a pile of metal.

Just two weeks ago I said the next phase of this cycle would bring "higher highs across more markets". Copper is now doing exactly that.

Copper’s record-breaking run above $14,500/ton should get everyone’s attention. It is the latest sign that the physical economy is repricing scarcity in the real world.

Yes, part of yesterday’s move reflects tariff front-running and metal being pulled into US warehouses. But… https://t.co/6eFZDXlDQv

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) September 7, 2026

Adam Gillard, managing director in commodity sales at Goldman, wrote in a note overnight:

LME copper makes a new all-time-high on 80% YTD adv. Despite the catchy headline we don't think there is anything new today; vol is offered as flat price moves higher and we think option positioning is 3/10 max. Think the franchise has 4/10 futures length to play a grind higher as LME continues to tighten on strong US imports. We have modest length mainly via LME spreads. As stated previously, the damage has been done; the threat of a US tariff was enough to shift all surplus metal to the US. Current dynamic of high imports, financed be Wall Street, without an inflationary tariff, is optimal from the administrations perspective; if imports drop off think tariff rhetoric changes given continued Critical Mineral security concerns.

Gillard continued:

Side-note: Never in my career did I think we'd see both (global) inventory and price on the highs together. No shortage of copper, just all in the wrong place (CMX). Regional deficit trading gtc.

Mine supply: Running negative y/y but this is not new; with global inventory up YTD hard to argue against being in a (global) cathode surplus. TCs a red herring. Frankly none of this matters; think we'll be trading regional deficits for the foreseeable.

US Imports: Remain firm; August should be ~200k MT whilst MTD September is already tracking at 77k MT basis ship-tracking data. We think the US has over-imported 730k MT YTD.

Source: Goldman Sachs 

LME Spreads: Which is why LME term structure keeps flaring; smelters can't run concentrate related shorts to prompt anymore to compensate for the lower headline TC given there is so little available metal outside of China / US.

Source: Goldman Sachs 

Chinese Positioning: Not stretched despite low domestic inventory; think they struggle adding length on the ATH with relatively tepid end-demand

Source: Goldman Sachs 

Scrap: Remains tight with secondary rod production still contracting by 50% y/y which is supporting cathode / apparent demand (& continued outperformance vs end demand)

Source: Goldman Sachs 

Chinese Inventory: Continues to draw, both upstream (-41% y/y) and downstream (-8% y/y), in part due to scrap-related tightness

Source: Goldman Sachs 

Michael Cuoco, head of metals at StoneX Financial, said the combination of strong demand growth and supply challenges "should bring about a tighter future market balance supporting higher prices."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 08:20
Tyler Durden

We're Living In A Tragicomic Parody

Zero Rss
1 month ago
We're Living In A Tragicomic Parody

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

We're blessed/cursed to be living in a very peculiar era in which parodies are taken with the utmost seriousness, an absurdist state of affairs captured by the classic line from the 1959 film North by Northwest: "So horribly sad. How is it I feel like laughing?"

The parodies are now so extreme they are self-parodies that cannot be parodied. How do we parody a world gone mad with parodies? Every attempt to parody "the news" today is trumped by reality.

We're inhabiting a travesty of a mockery of a sham of smug overlords and obsequious politically correct grifters, left and right, claiming the high moral ground while they pillage with a money-grubbing avarice so blatant that it's impervious to parody.

Their hypocrisy is so comically obvious that we can no longer tell if it's comic by design or the grifters are so shallow and superficial that they're blind to the irony of their self-parody.

At any moment, we might be instructed to wear our underwear on the outside of our clothing, and the Supreme Court would rubber-stamp this parody of serious policy with its usual cowardice, a cowardice that is now so blatant that it's also beyond parody: the Supreme Court is a parody of a functioning system of justice.

All this will be reported with great seriousness, as if it isn't a punchline in a joke nobody gets.

The irony of all the euphoric claims about AI is powerful enough to melt thick steel containment doors. The AI euphoria is itself an irony, wrapped around an even deeper irony: there is no way to tell the difference between an AI parody of "intelligence" and what AI presents as "legitimate intelligence."

A parody of AI hallucinations is impossible, because the reality of AI hallucinations already exceeds any parody. A parody of runaway AI mischief is also impossible, because the reality of AI mischief already exceeds any parody.

Then there's the parodies that are so systemic, they're the punchline nobody gets: the economy is a parody of a functional economy - here is total debt:

And the the stock market casino run by The Gamesters of Triskelion is a parody of a functional financial system:

Star Trek fans know the The Gamesters of Triskelion episode is a parody in which a society of supposedly great intelligence has decayed into a debased casino in which gambling and gaming the betting action is the sole focus of these supposedly intelligent Masters of the Universe.

Isn't it obvious that the US financial system / stock market is now such an absurd parody of a functional financial system that it can no longer be parodied, as it's a full-blown self-parody?

Ultra-Processed Life - everything is "innovative," "new," a novelty everyone must have, profitable glop presented as amusement and distraction not nourishment - is a self-parody not just of a functioning socio-economic system but of an authentic value system.

It's hard to take a joke when our entire economy and financial system is the joke. The comedian delivers the punchline and the audience is silent: they won't get the joke until it's too late to laugh, except through tears, for we're living in a tragicomic parody.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 08:05
Tyler Durden

UCLA football already making heck of run for it under Bob Chesney

NY Post
1 month ago
When in doubt, run. That could be the UCLA offense’s motto given what happened Saturday. A run game that went nowhere last season covered nearly as much ground as Bruins fans who drove to Berkeley from Los Angeles. UCLA’s 277 rushing yards against Cal were its most against a Football Bowl Subdivision opponent since 2023....
Ben Bolch

Who’s Clippers executive at center of Kawhi Leonard scandal?

NY Post
1 month ago
When the NBA announced the findings and penalties from the investigation into the Clippers’ alleged salary cap circumvention for star forward Kawhi Leonard, the summary report prepared by Wachtell Lipton had a clear statement toward the end of the 36-page report. Clippers owner Steve Ballmer, President of Basketball Operations Lawrence Frank and President of Business...
Khobi Price

Bolsonaro Leads Socialist Lula As "Huge Bet" On Right-Wing Victory Fuels Brazil ETF Options Frenzy

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Bolsonaro Leads Socialist Lula As "Huge Bet" On Right-Wing Victory Fuels Brazil ETF Options Frenzy

Summary:

  • "Explosive Surge" in iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) call open interest
  • BTG Pactual/Nexus Survey Shows Bolsonaro Leads Over Socialist Lula 
  • UBS Calls Brazil Election "Extremely Close" - Bolsonaro Win Would Cement LatAm's Political Shift

The BTG Pactual/Nexus survey released earlier today puts right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, though within the margin of error, as a deepening Supreme Court scandal strengthens the conservative challenger's campaign.

🇧🇷‼️ | El Candidato Presidencial, Flávio Bolsonaro, lideró una masiva concentración de personas durante las celebraciones por el día de la independencia de Brasil. Bolsonaro afirmó que la voz del pueblo es la voluntad divina y aseguró que en las elecciones de octubre desplazará a… pic.twitter.com/UQkdjNQDyh

— UHN Plus (@UHN_Plus) September 7, 2026

At the center of the political turmoil is Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case that sent former President Jair Bolsonaro to prison for plotting a coup. Newly published private messages, according to Bloomberg, suggest closer ties between Moraes and Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of failed lender Banco Master, which is under investigation for fraud.

"Anyone who votes for Lula is voting for Alexandre de Moraes," Bolsonaro recently told supporters.

Polymarket odds for next month's Brazilian election show the gap between Bolsonaro and Lula narrowing dramatically.

Overnight, we ​​​​​​showed an "explosive surge" in iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) call open interest.

And someone appears to be making a huge bet on just that: explosive surge in EWZ call OI https://t.co/nqFaGgms4R pic.twitter.com/uen9bXmqBw

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 8, 2026

"The Brazil FOMO is real," The Market Ear wrote on X. 

EWZ call open interest just hit record highs. The Brazil FOMO is real.https://t.co/23lNn352mk

— The Market Ear (@themarketear) September 7, 2026

A Bolsonaro victory would reinforce South America's broader shift from unhinged left-wing regimes toward the common sense right.

UBS Calls Brazil Election "Extremely Close" - Bolsonaro Win Would Cement LatAm's Political Shift 

Socialist Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's polling lead over right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has eroded in recent weeks, leaving both statistically tied in UBS' latest runoff polling average. 

Arend Kapteyn, UBS' global head of economics and strategy research, described the upcoming election in early October as "extremely close" in a note to clients on Monday.

Lula (Left); Bolsonaro (Right)

Kapteyn's note today puts Bolsonaro at 50.4% in a hypothetical runoff, against 49.6% for Lula, adding that the narrowing spread leaves the candidates statistically tied. 

Kapteyn continued:

On 4 October, Brazilians will vote for a president, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate. Brazil currently has one of the highest real interest rates in the world, contributing to increasingly adverse debt dynamics. In our view, an election outcome that delivers a credible fiscal consolidation program could significantly improve the macroeconomic outlook. Relative to our baseline, real interest rates could fall by at least 2.5 percentage points (to around 5% from 7.5%), potential growth could be 1pp higher (2.5% rather than 1.5%), and inflation could be around 1pp lower (3.5% rather than 4.5%).

Our poll aggregator currently shows first-round voting intentions of 42.5% for Lula and 36.0% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Given the historical polling error of approximately 3 percentage points, the candidates' confidence intervals overlap. Rejection rates are elevated for both candidates, while other contenders collectively attract 21.5% of voting intentions. If no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round, a runoff will be held on 25 October.

The second round appears even tighter. Lula currently polls at 49.6% of voting intentions versus 50.4% for Flávio. Compared with our poll update a week ago, the lead has effectively changed hands. Importantly, these surveys were conducted before the latest controversy involving a Supreme Court justice, who is alleged to have advised an individual under fraud investigation, a case that could potentially implicate key allies within Lula's inner circle.

Historically, incumbent presidents have generally secured re-election when their "good or great" approval rating exceeded 40%. Lula currently stands at 37% on this measure. Conversations with two political consultants also suggest that momentum may be shifting in Flávio's favor. Nevertheless, prediction markets continue to assign Lula a modest advantage. Polymarket implies odds of roughly 55%-43% in Lula's ffavor while Kalshi places the race at approximately 55%-44%.

Polymarket Odds:

Read:

The election may determine whether Brazil moves further left or right politically. Across the continent, the latest country to shift right was Colombia. Many others have followed:

By mid-2026, South America had already flipped. Argentina (Milei), Chile (Kast), Colombia (de la Espriella), Peru (Keiko Fujimori), Ecuador (Noboa), Bolivia (Paz), and Paraguay (Peña) sit on the right.

The remaining large left-wing governments are Brazil and Uruguay. Brazil accounts for about half of South America's GDP and population. If Brazil goes right, the region would be entirely aligned with the Trump administration and would be on track to rid itself of nation-killing socialism and other failed progressive experiments.

In Germany on Sunday, right-wing Alternative für Deutschland delivered its strongest election result ever in Saxony-Anhalt, dealing a sharp blow to the political establishment. Nomura analysts indicate that Europe may be in the early stages of "lurching right" (read the report).

Putting this all together, Western voters are rejecting nation-killing left-wing regimes that have done nothing more than allow mass migration, pursue progressive experiments, and neuter the West's industrial and power grids with climate change policies, which has only given China a leg up in the AI and weapons race. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 07:50
Tyler Durden

Europe's Von der Leyen Wants To Put Private Bank Deposits Under State Direction

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Europe's Von der Leyen Wants To Put Private Bank Deposits Under State Direction

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

How will we deal with private property in Europe in the future?

A highly complex debate follows from this question, one that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen interpreted in her own very particular way on Friday. In a speech to French business leaders at the MEDEF’s La Rencontre des Entrepreneurs de France in Paris, the former defense minister talked about using EU citizens’ bank deposits to get the ailing eurozone, the European economy, back on its feet.

An unmistakable message: In the view of the EU’s chief Eurocrat, private property as a protective wall shielding citizens from an overreaching state has served its purpose as a pillar of civilization.

Central planning, subsidy madness – this is Brussels under the magnifying glass.

Certainly: In the face of towering government debt and capital flight from the old continent, in whose wake thousands of patents and tens of thousands of highly qualified professionals are being swept away, citizens’ wealth is bound to awaken political appetites. A ruthless expropriation or the decreed redirection of cash, as the finest bureaucratic German puts it, is supposed to solve the problems Brussels itself has caused through its stubborn climate policy, its overregulation and its continuing insanity of interventionism.

Von der Leyen was explicit before the business leaders: Europe has savings, she said, but unfortunately those savings are sitting on the sidelines. Ten trillion euros are sitting as cash savings in the hands of private households in bank accounts, lectures von der Leyen in the manner of a classic central planner who can no longer take her eyes off citizens’ wealth. The European economy must now put this capital to work for its companies, the chief bureaucrat decreed.

None of this merely sounds like Erich Honecker. Von der Leyen is increasingly turning into a socialist sister in spirit to this disastrous regime.

Von der Leyen is following the path of the German chancellor. Friedrich Merz, too, discovered the cash holdings of Germans as political capital for himself more than a year ago – thoroughly socialist, indeed almost dictatorial, the chancellor also pointed to the possibilities opened up by what he called an activation of this money.

Ursula von der Leyen and Friedrich Merz reveal not merely an ethical and ideological abyss; they are contemplating dictatorial control over the private wealth of citizens who are still sovereign.

Almost tragically comical is the economic ignorance of these two political protagonists of an EU that is now openly turning toward an illiberal ideology.

Bank deposits are by no means useless cash. From the perspective of the banking sector, customer deposits are a central source of refinancing and liquidity, embedded in the money and credit cycle and enabling the provision of loans. Bank credit in the modern monetary system does not simply arise from passing on existing deposits. Commercial banks create new bank money through lending, although this process cannot simply be understood as a mechanical “leveraging” of existing deposits. Customer deposits thus fulfill numerous functions, from private liquidity planning and cash holdings to the financing and management of banking processes.

Such a massive intervention in the highly complex and fragile liquidity and credit structure of the banking sector would not merely be a barbaric act of socialism – it would be a frontal assault on the functionality of the banking system as such.

Nevertheless, the EU will resort to massive interventions – financially, after all, they have run into a wall.

Starting in 2028, repayment of the €800 billion Eurobond “NextGenerationEU” will come due. Von der Leyen’s speech before business leaders was ostensibly directed at the private sector, but in reality it concerned the financing of the European debt club, which is now moving toward tapping every financial source that can help keep the Ponzi scheme of European credit alive – the activation of cash appears to be one of those sources.

France is caught in a debt spiral, with new borrowing amounting to 5.7% of GDP this year and a parliamentary deadlock that rules out any form of fiscal consolidation.

Germany, too, will post new borrowing of more than 5 percent next year if the municipal deficit, the special funds and the social insurance funds are included – making common financing through Eurobonds, the consolidation of the mountain of debt under the roof of the European Commission and under the active liquidity assistance of the ECB increasingly likely.

And here the circle closes.

While capital is leaving the old continent through every remaining, every still-open channel, the financial needs of the EU’s ideological grand experiment and its nation-states are growing beyond measure.

The green subsidy machine alone destroys billions year after year. The final push over the economic cliff, however, will come from Europe’s rediscovered appetite for militarism. Military Keynesianism is not, however, an economic alternative to the free market. It is merely another fiscal grave that the political leadership is digging in its panic in these months.

The following final chapter is essentially known: Brussels will opt for massive capital controls.

The framework for this is already taking shape: In two years, the digital euro is to be introduced, initially as a pilot phase and, almost certainly at a later stage, as a monetary standard that will allow Brussels to exercise complete control over transfers abroad.

A ban on foreign bank accounts for EU citizens is also on the table and is being introduced step by step, just like the digital ID and the harsh regulation of the crypto sector. Slowly but steadily, the gates are closing.

Basically, this is how it always works in socialism: One day, the central planners will run out of other people’s money. Only then does the grinding machinery of repression by the powerful central authority begin.

* * * 

About the author:  Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 07:20
Tyler Durden

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