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Kylian Mbappe knows ‘s–t’ is coming after France’s World Cup flameout

NY Post
1 month ago
The fury began quickly.
Justin Tasch

Goldman Sachs’ ex-top lawyer tells Congress claims Jeffrey Epstein used her

NY Post
1 month ago
Ruemmler resigned as Goldman's top lawyer earlier this year after previously undisclosed communications with Epstein became public.
Ariel Zilber

Heroes reveal horror they saw as they dragged boaters from ocean near Alcatraz, three still missing

NY Post
1 month ago
Rescuers in the catastrophic San Francisco Bay boat sinking near Alcatraz described a chaotic scene when they arrived to help the drowning boaters on Tuesday.
Ross O'Keefe

Tom Cruise pulls back curtain on wild transformation for ‘Digger’ character

NY Post
1 month ago
After the actor shared the movie poster on his social media, fans refused to believe the outlandish character was him.
mliss1578

Tom Cruise pulls back curtain on wild transformation for ‘Digger’ character

NY Post
1 month ago
After the actor shared the movie poster on his social media, fans refused to believe the outlandish character was him.
Jolie Zenna

Timothée Chalamet catches up with David Beckham at Spain vs France World Cup game and more star snaps

NY Post
1 month ago
Shawn Mendes and Bruna Marquezine share a kiss, Julia Roberts braves the NYC heatwave and more snaps...
mliss1578

Timothée Chalamet catches up with David Beckham at Spain vs France World Cup game and more star snaps

NY Post
1 month ago
Shawn Mendes and Bruna Marquezine share a kiss, Julia Roberts braves the NYC heatwave and more snaps...
Nicole Mazza

Subaru recalls 540K SUVs after federal regulators flag error that could increase crash risk

NY Post
1 month ago
Subaru is recalling more than half a million SUVs due to an incorrect weight limit label that could lead drivers to unintentionally overload their vehicles and increase the risk of a crash, federal safety regulators announced.
Fox Business

Crime reporter reveals tactics burglars use to vet homes before breaking in — including one common trap homeowners fall for

NY Post
1 month ago
Veteran crime reporter Lori Fullbright divulged the surprisingly common phrases burglars use while scoping your house.
Ben Cost

Amazon tacks on sneaky fees for the upcoming ‘peak season’ — advising customers to buy early

NY Post
1 month ago
The e-commerce behemoth added the extra rates as a short-term measure to help offset the increased operating costs it was experiencing.
Aurielle Weiss

Man shot, 160 arrested as riots erupt across France following World Cup loss

NY Post
1 month ago
Paris and Lyon have both been hit by riots, with fire burning and heavily armed police deployed.
News.com.au

Archaeologists unearth city’s earliest Christian church beneath former fish market

NY Post
1 month ago
Archaeologists believe the discovery represents the earliest known Christian place of worship in ancient Oderzo.
Fox News

NY refuses to give up ‘orphan tax’ that steals from the most vulnerable in foster care

NY Post
1 month ago
The Trump administration has persuaded a 30th state to stop using the “orphan tax” after Melania Trump pushed a program that helps set up children in the foster care system for success later in life.
Emily Goodin

The Nordstrom Anniversary Sale has great deals on the Dr. Dennis Gross peel pads and red light mask stars love

NY Post
1 month ago
Emily Ratajkowski even said the peel pads made "a huge improvement" in her skin.
mliss1578

The Nordstrom Anniversary Sale has great deals on the Dr. Dennis Gross peel pads and red light mask stars love

NY Post
1 month ago
Emily Ratajkowski even said the peel pads made "a huge improvement" in her skin.
Erica Radol

Warren Buffett says Bill Gates’ Epstein ties were ‘distasteful,’ but everybody makes mistakes: ‘Life goes on’

NY Post
1 month ago
The “Oracle of Omaha,” who has been friends with Gates for roughly 35 years, on Tuesday announced his donations of $6 billion in Berkshire shares this year – notably excluding the Gates Foundation.
Taylor Herzlich

We Have The Tools/Tolls To Do It

Zero Rss
1 month ago
We Have The Tools/Tolls To Do It

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Markets were delighted by US CPI data. Against a backdrop of oil up nearly double digits they instead got a number closer to a future trimmed mean measure without that nasty volatility, even if it was a fall in gasoline prices that resulted in the -0.4% m-o-m headline and 0.0% core prints.

Warsh modelled the New Model Army he wants to see central bankers being: he refused to say ‘mission accomplished’ on inflation: “We have the tools to do it” is perhaps being the new “Whatever it takes.” However, he didn’t want to talk about what he thought on rates: markets had to do that themselves, and they took CPI to mean less Fed tightening.

The Middle East’s new models of arms will get a big say on that. In Hormuz, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports is now back in effect, with enforcement of sanctions, and the two sides are trading blows across the strait, if not the deadliest they are capable of. Yet President Trump is again threatening to hit Iranian power plants and bridges next week if no deal is reached; Axios reports that Trump just held a Situation Room meeting on massive new strikes that are wide enough in scope to force Tehran to back off in Hormuz; the Houthis might threaten the Red Sea after announcing Saudi airspace is not safe for overflight; and Israeli PM Netanyahu warned Iran if his country is attacked, the response will be a “decisive blow.”

There are more positive signs too. Israel-Lebanon talks continue in Rome, along with a surprise Trump press conference call for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon and Syria that is unlikely to mean much on the ground. Trump also just hosted Iraq’s PM for talks on a final US troop withdrawal set for end-September, Iran, and oil - where the US is supporting efforts to revive an Iraq-Syria crude oil pipeline as another Hormuz workaround.

Trump also dropped his 20% Hormuz toll in favor of GCC FDI pledges into the US. Take Trump seriously (the US is not going to fight for free) not literally (the toll was impractical short of a full state-press vs the private sector); and will those who fight alongside the US see their FDI contribution commensurately lower? A more obvious carrot and stick is the Wall Street Journal underlining the UAE was rewarded with coveted US AI chips for supporting the war.

At a more meta level than the Financial Times -- opining Trump has no clear path to victory vs. Iran -- sees, stop to Hor-muse over this idea for a moment too:

  1. The US national security strategy openly calls for control of maritime chokepoints.
  2. That must include Hormuz and its energy flows.
  3. That’s very expensive --and hard-- to achieve and maintain.
  4. Yet someone else controlling Hormuz is even more expensive, geostrategically.
  5. So, if the US starts a war to control Hormuz but can’t, even if it gains during fighting as an LNG and helium exporter, why not then ensure the strait is not a chokepoint?
  6. How better to achieve that than to ensure Hormuz remains in on-off chaos long enough that friends’ pipelines and new oil supply eventually reduce it to more of a sideshow?
  7. Seen that way, though the US went into this war wanting ‘Venezuela 2.0’, within limits, it has rolling optionality on other outcomes that suit its geostrategy - and it “has the tolls to do it.”

Brent is still stable at $85-86, in line with our energy analyst Joe Delaura’s expectations, following the aggressive short squeeze just seen. For more from him, and Florence Schmit on LNG, see here.

There is also more recognition of the incredible success of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s Sea of Azov fleet, which Moscow is calling terrorism. Imagine that transplanted elsewhere…

Meanwhile, President Macron used Bastille Day to showcase Europe's defense ambitions and will allow Ukraine to build French defense systems there; but the head of Germany’s Luftwaffe warned Europe has “no time” to counter Putin without US weapons. Somebody who should know thinks that Europe doesn’t have the tools to do it.

US Under Secretary of War Colby had a blunt social media message in a related regard, not just for Europe, but for Australia and Canada, among others: “There is a great deal of hubbub about a collective “middle powers” strategy these days. At the Department of War, we are not concerned that this is a serious possibility. Rather, we are more concerned that a few allies and partners will *think it is* and waste valuable time, money, and political capital on a distraction.”

Just before that, UK Chancellor Reeves gave an annual Mansion House speech which sounded like an interview to keep her job under PM Burnham by focusing on devolution, postcodes, “economic security is national security,” “securonomics,” and “industrial strategy.” Yet she didn’t mention tariffs as the tools to do it when statecraft logic, which she implies is being embraced, says this cannot happen without them. Then again, Reeves also sounded like she would like to rejoin the EU if possible, so that tariff decision hypothetically wouldn’t be any UK government’s to make anyway.

For its part, Europe will look at yesterday’s China-EU trade data, with the Chinese surplus surging yet again, and the report that China is targeting strategic sectors in the Netherlands as Dutch technology and companies offer Beijing outsize influence over value chains, and thinking about what it needs to do re: trade come October.

Likewise, Chinese Q2 GDP today was 4.3% y-o-y, lower than the 4.5% consensus, but 0.9% q-o-q expectations, and the y-o-y year-to-date (YTD) figure was 4.7% vs. 4.8%. Within that, retail sales for June were 1.0% y-o-y and 1.3% y-o-y YTD, while industrial production was 5.3% y-o-y vs. 4.6% consensus and 5.4% y-o-y YTD. Fixed asset investment was -5.7% y-o-y YTD, worse than -5.0% expected. In short, consumers are spending little, investment is declining (with property investment -18% y-o-y YTD and new house prices -0.3% m-o-m), yet industry is booming: that either means stockpiles are building or exports are flooding the world.

It’s the latter, clearly, as China’s economic statecraft has the tools to do it: for example, it now not only makes the tools Germany used to, but the tool-making machines it used to. Now let’s all say “securonomics” or “strategic autonomy” again and see what happens next.

Aside from tools and tolls, markets can also note that China just increased its holdings of US Treasuries, as Japan’s Finance Ministry is floating JGBs in tax-free accounts amid a GPIF portfolio review to incentivise its vast funds to keep more cash at home not abroad. What if (or when) other major economies follow suit to try to deal with the vast bills looming for a true “securonomics”?

In the meantime, enjoy headlines such as ‘Wall Street Traders Seize on Fervour and Fear to Set Records’ and ‘IBM Acting Like a Penny Stock Is a Sign of Times’ on your Bloomberg screen.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/15/2026 - 10:00
Tyler Durden

You Can Watch Joe Keery’s ‘Cold Storage’ Movie Streaming on MGM+, But Will ‘Cold Storage’ Be on Amazon Prime for Free?

NY Post
1 month ago
Stranger Things star Joe Keery is back to fight more monsters.
mliss1578

Contractor goes to war with LAX over mega-project fiasco, accuses airport of cover up

NY Post
1 month ago
The legal gloves are off over LAX’s never-ending people mover fiasco. The company behind LAX’s long-delayed $3.3 billion SkyLink train is suing the City of Los Angeles and accusing airport officials of covering up the real reasons the mega-project keeps going off the rails. The lawsuit is the latest black eye for the troubled transit...
Daniel Farr

These Nordstrom Anniversary Sale Longchamp deals are bound to sell out

NY Post
1 month ago
Bag these deals before they disappear.
mliss1578

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News feeds

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  • The Six Nooses: How Interventionism Is Strangling The Family's Will To Reproduce
  • Assistant U.S. Attorney Found Dead Inside Federal Building
  • Wealth Exodus: Australians Flock To Property Investment Over Business
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  • Let Americans Keep The Savings They Find
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