Aggregator
Labor Shock: US Adds 162K Jobs In August, 4-Sigma Beat And Above Highest Forecast
In our jobs report preview we quoted JPM's Market Intel desk which said that today's August payrolls number will be a case of "good news is bad news", and sure enough futures are sliding and yields surging after moments ago the BLS reported that in August, the US added a whopping 162K jobs, up from an upward revised 21K (July is no longer negative -23K), and the second highest monthly increase of 2026 (only March was higher)...
... and printed not only above the median estimate of 50K but above the highest Wall Street estimate of 125K (from Pantheon). In fact, this was a a 4-sigma beat to expectations.
Understandably, today's blowout print was the biggest beat of estimates going back to March.
For once, revisions were quite favorable, with June numbers revised up by 11,000, from +20,000 to +31,000, and July revised up by 44,000, from -23,000 to +21,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 55,000 higher than previously reported.
Remarkably, unlike previous months when jumps in payrolls were met with declines in employment, in August we saw a surge of 569K employed workers from 162.177MM to 162.746MM alongside the 162K increase in payrolls.
This meant that after steadily declining for the past year, and diverging with the number of payrolls, the number of employed Americans posted a sizable jump as shown below.
The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.1%, and in line with expectations. Among major groups, the unemployment rate for people who are Asian declined to 3.2%, The rate for teenagers edged up to 14.1% over the month, mostly offsetting a decline in the prior month. The jobless rates for adult men (4.0 percent), adult women (3.5 percent), and people who are White (3.7 percent), Black (6.0 percent), or Hispanic (4.8 percent) showed little change in August.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM, in line with expectations, and 3.1% YoY. In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $32.53. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in August. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.5 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.8 hours.
Some more details from the report:
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in August. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.0 percent of all unemployed people.
The labor force participation rate edged up to 61.6 percent in August but is down by 0.5 percentage point since January. The employment-population ratio, at 59.1 percent, changed little over the month and since January.
The number of people employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 414,000 to 4.4 million in August. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
In August, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 5.7 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.7 million in August. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little in August at 441,000.
Taking a closer look at the composition of jobs per the Establishment survey we find the following:
- Employment in food services and drinking places increased by 59,000 in August, well above the average monthly gain of 12,000 over the prior 12 months.
- Local government education added 42,000 jobs in August, largely offsetting a decrease in the prior month. Local government education has shown little net change since January 2025.
- In August, employment in manufacturing continued its upward trend (+16,000) and is up by 58,000 since a recent low in December 2025. Employment in machinery manufacturing (+6,000) and in fabricated metal product manufacturing (+6,000) continued trending up in August.
- Employment in health care continued to trend up in August (+13,000) but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+32,000). Over the month, home health care services (+11,000) and hospitals (+8,000) added jobs.
- Information employment declined by 23,000 in August, following losses that had averaged 8,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In August, job losses occurred in computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services (-8,000), in publishing industries (-7,000), and in broadcasting and content providers (-5,000).
- Construction employment changed little in August (+22,000). Employment in nonresidential specialty trade contractors continued to trend up (+8,000), similar to the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+6,000).
Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; financial activities; professional and business services; social assistance; and other services.
Remarkably, unlike previous months where the data was gamed to cover up underlying weakness, this time we saw a very powerful increase in qualitative components, as full-time jobs surged by 735K to 134.288 million, while part-time jobs dropped by 223K!
The unexpectedly strong print has understandably sent Sept rate hike odds spiking and has hammered risk assets, although the real decider whether we get a rate move this month will be next week's CPI print. As a reminder, according to JPM, a print above 95K will lead to a 0.5% to -1.25% down day for the S&P.
Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 10:30
Putin Says There's A Chance Of Ukraine Peace Deal, Wants To Restore Full US Relations
Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times,
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sept. 3 that there was "a chance" of achieving peace with Ukraine and expressed a desire to rekindle relations with the United States.
Putin was speaking at a session of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok when he made the comments.
On the subject of Ukraine, the Russian president said Moscow was "grateful to everyone who is trying to contribute to resolving this issue," and he said that in his opinion there is "a chance" of peace, according to Russian state news agency TASS.
He said that for hostilities to end between Moscow and Kyiv, "Russia and Ukraine must first reach an agreement" between themselves, and he acknowledged that "all other countries are ready to support and assist" in achieving that.
The Russian leader also revealed that contact between Moscow and Kyiv was ongoing via the two nations' intelligence services, but he said that it was difficult for him to say "to what extent these contacts are leading to a peace agreement."
Regarding Russo - American relations, Putin confirmed that Moscow was still in contact with Washington and said he hoped that such contact would continue.
Alluding to the recent trip by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow for meetings on Aug. 25, the Russian president said that everyone was aware of the cooperation between American and Russian intelligence agencies and administration officials appointed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
He said that the collaboration was "working" and expressed a hope that it will "ultimately lead to a positive outcome."
He further stated, "[Moscow is] in favor of restoring relations with the United States in full, but this does not depend solely on us; it depends on the American side."
However, he stressed that he believed that Trump is "determined to engage in such positive, constructive work."
On Aug. 26, Trump confirmed Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow for meetings on Aug. 25.
The president, however, dismissed all rumors about the purpose of Ratcliffe's trip, denying that he was sent to warn the Kremlin against testing NATO's resolve, striking England, or disregarding Iranian sanctions.
"John Ratcliffe is a fantastic guy. He's the head of the CIA, and he is not in there for any of the things that you said. Now, something may come out, you know, out of it. We're working very hard to get that war ended, and frankly, they both want to see it ended at this point," Trump said.
On the topic of meeting with Putin, Trump said on Sept. 2 that such an occasion would occur only after peace was achieved between Moscow and Kyiv.
"We'd do it if I wanted it, but I want to do it when we're ready to do a peace deal," he told reporters in the Oval Office.
He said that the United States wanted to have good relations with both warring parties, saying it would be "great for business."
"They ought to stop that stupid war," he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that his country wanted peace but wouldn't surrender, in an Aug. 24 speech in Kyiv marking Ukraine's Independence Day.
On Sept. 1, Zelenskyy said Ukraine supports "every step toward peace," in a post on X.
"The war needs to end, and leaders are right to tell Putin this. So, for the sake of diplomacy and negotiations, whenever our partners approach us about this, we will ensure that Russian skies are cleared of drones for specified periods of time and along specified routes," he said.
"Safety will return to Russia's skies when there is real movement toward peace. For now, the skies over Russia are for drones - not for civilian aviation."
Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 10:30Spain Gasses Its Own People; Police Probe Migrant/Soros NGO Acid Buys In Ceuta
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
Spanish National Police have been examining a bulk purchase of hydrochloric acid and aluminium foil in Ceuta after supermarket staff flagged a large group of migrants, reported as mostly Moroccan, buying the two products together.
Spanish outlets citing police sources identified activists from the NGO No Name Kitchen as accompanying those buyers.
Investigators have been trying to establish whether the materials were meant for homemade "acid bombs" - plastic bottles packed with acid and foil that produce a small blast, gas and corrosive spray - and whether anyone helped hide what was bought.
Spanish police are investigating after a large group of illegal migrants, mainly Moroccans, accompanied by members of an NGO funded by George Soros, bought large quantities of hydrochloric acid and aluminum foil from a supermarket in Ceuta, that could be intended to make homemade... pic.twitter.com/YfrFXcyMLS
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 3, 2026The devices match the bottles of corrosive liquid already thrown at Spanish soldiers and at local protesters in the days around the shop run.
The chemistry is crude and already in the open record. Police sources, describe aguafuerte - hydrochloric acid, also sold as salfumán - plus aluminium foil, sometimes with acetone, going into plastic bottles.
Thrown, the mix over-pressurises, pops and throws irritant gas and corrosive liquid. That is the device Spanish media say has been used against army patrols and against residents marching through Villajovita.
No Name Kitchen denies any role. Its coordinator, Ric Fernández, says the group packs 1,200 to 1,300 hot meals a day, buys foil for food and kitchen lining, and uses small amounts of solvent for cleaning, not "industrial quantities" for weapons.
Identified activists were not arrested because the products are legal to buy.
Interior officials, speaking to RTVE, have also denied that police or the Civil Guard are investigating "any NGO" for supplying explosive materials. That official line sits next to days of Spanish crime reporting in which officers are described identifying NNK members after the purchase.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's government has repeatedly insisted Ceuta is back under control. Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares has said "practically the entirety of those who entered Ceuta have already returned to Morocco." Video from the enclave a month later shows tents, wrecked beaches and a city that looks like an earthquake has hit it.
When they told you Ceuta was sorted it was a lie
It's hell on Earth
African illegal migrants have destroyed that city
When will Europe wake up and realise this insanity must stop pic.twitter.com/08xjLvWj3Q
No Name Kitchen, which campaigns against European border enforcement, was already in trouble before this. On 23 August two of its activists, a Canadian and a German, were detained at Benítez beach. Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska said they had encouraged "violent groups" - illegal migrants - to respond aggressively to police and had resisted officers.
The NGO says the pair were filming. El Faro de Ceuta separately reported a French activist detained in the same neighbourhood after clashing with police. Viral clips accused volunteers of handing out pepper spray. Fernández told Newtral that was a "hoax to discredit us" and that the group has never bought pepper spray or "any device that could incite violence."
Conservative Spanish media and accounts across X pointed to DevelopmentAid listings that name George Soros' Open Society Foundations among No Name Kitchen's funding agencies, and to the group's old place inside Border Violence Monitoring Network, which has taken OSF money.
NNK says it does not take direct Open Society money for Ceuta and that any OSF link ran through an older network.
Meanwhile, native Spaniards continue to rise up in revolt against the government's facilitation of mass migration.
On Wednesday, protests were recorded in more than 200 towns and citie. In Ceuta itself around 20,000 marched. They chanted "Ceuta is not for sale, Ceuta must be defended" and "expel the invaders." Placards read "SOS. Europe, save us from our traitor government." Outside Congress later that night the line was shorter still: "It's not immigration, it's invasion."
Maria Sánchez, a 47-year-old housewife, told AFP in Ceuta: "We are Spanish, we don't want any government to abandon us again like they've abandoned us."
David Hernández, a 45-year-old teacher, told Reuters: "The response has been inadequate, late and, to top it all, has involved a complete dereliction of duty on the part of the government. We cannot be second-class citizens, and our border must not be sidelined."
Another resident, who gave only the name Lola, said the situation was "spiralling out of control" and that "there's a point where this will become a powder keg."
Protests in Spain over government's handling of Ceuta migrant crisis https://t.co/MKlrPpFf0T
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) September 2, 2026In Madrid, an eatimated150,000 matched through the streets chanting "Sánchez to prison" and "Invaders - go home."
PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo stood in that crowd and said: "A Spanish city has been invaded, occupied and, unfortunately, this happened with the knowledge of the Government of Spain." He and Vox leader Santiago Abascal both accused Sánchez of lying to Spaniards and of being a "traitor to Spain" and a "lackey of Morocco."
Madrid mayor José Luis Martínez-Almeida said: "Ceuta is Spanish and will not be abandoned." Regional president Isabel Díaz Ayuso said the government had "done nothing but lie since they arrived" and that "they have abandoned us, not only the people of Ceuta, but the whole of Spain before the eyes of the world."
?BREAKING: Millions are out on the streets right now in towns and cities across Spain in a mass protest against Pedro Sánchez and the invasion of Ceuta
THE FIGHT BACK IS ON!? pic.twitter.com/gdOKyljr9d
Spain has spoken ??
Millions of Spaniards take to the streets to protest their Government's betrayal.
Remove the corrupt Socialist party for Treason. pic.twitter.com/6cEVJ8a3uY
As a section of the protesters continued to march toward Congress, police reportedly fired rubber bullets and tear gas.
??? SPANISH POLICE FIRE TEAR GAS AT ANTI-MIGRATION PROTESTERS IN MADRID
Spanish police have fired tear gas and rubber bullets at demonstrators in Madrid, as tens of thousands took to the streets against the government's handling of the Ceuta migrant crisis.
Around 50,000... pic.twitter.com/st7OxBbmaK
The state that could not keep 70,000 people from pouring into a Spanish city unimpeded found the resources to gas citizens who object.
Thursday, Sánchez went to Congress to insist the executive "has nothing to hide." Claiming that it is "absurd to think that the government knew and did nothing." He claimed more than 90 percent of arrivals were returned within 72 hours - "one of the fastest return processes in European history" - and blamed social-media rumours plus a misread Supreme Court ruling that stopped immediate sea pushbacks.
He again said he had no indication Morocco organised the surge. Ceuta and Melilla, he added, will remain Spanish "until the end of time."
The Council of Ministers has now waved through a €309 million emergency package - housing, services, extra police - about 16 percent of Ceuta's output for the rest of the year.
Critics charge that tent camps for 1,500 adults do not house 5,000 to 10,000 people who have already learned that staying in place works. Asylum claims, minor-protection rules and "ordinary return procedure" are how a surge becomes a settlement.
A government that treats border defence as a branding exercise, then gasses the public for noticing and objecting, is asking for more unrest and more chaos.
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Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 10:25The Rush To Pull Gold Out Of The US
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
It was reported yesterday that the Netherlands just shifted approximately 86 tonnes of its gold reserves from New York and Ottawa to London, explicitly citing “increasing geopolitical unrest” and the need to prepare for severe crises.
The Dutch central bank says gold held in London can be accessed and traded more quickly during an emergency than gold stored in New York or Canada.
That is some wonderfully sanitized central-bank language to deliver a message that seems to me to be “confidence in the U.S. holding the world’s gold…and likely being a cornerstone of the global economic machine…is dwindling.”
Either way, it means the Netherlands has effectively decided that if the world goes sideways, it would prefer substantially less of its ultimate crisis reserve sitting in North America.
Before the move, 31.3% of Dutch gold was in New York, 19.7% in Ottawa and 18.1% in London. Now New York and Ottawa each hold 18.5%, while London has jumped to 32.1%. The Netherlands owns 612.4 tonnes of gold altogether.
Technically, all 86 tonnes weren’t loaded onto planes and flown across the Atlantic. DNB sold roughly 59 tonnes in New York and bought equivalent market-standard gold in London. More than 27 tonnes were physically moved from the U.S. and Canada to the Netherlands, while a similar quantity moved from the Netherlands to London.
The distinction matters operationally. Economically, not so much. The result is fewer Dutch reserves in New York and considerably more in London.
And we’ve seen this before. In 2014, the Netherlands physically brought 122.5 tonnes home from New York. Germany later completed the relocation of 300 tonnes from New York to Frankfurt. And between July 2025 and January 2026, France eliminated its remaining New York gold position, replacing 129 tonnes held there with market-standard bars now stored in Paris. France says that decision was about trading efficiency, not politics, which is fair enough. The bars nevertheless wound up in Paris instead of New York.
India has also dramatically reduced the portion of its gold stored overseas, although most of that repatriation involved gold held in London rather than America.
This seems to be me to be a very obvious trend toward central banks wanting greater control over the one reserve asset that is nobody else’s liability.
Gold doesn’t require Washington to pay you back. Funny how attractive that feature becomes when Washington owes more than $40 trillion.
As I have droned on about for a decade, the entire modern financial system is ultimately held together by confidence and fiat. The dollar works because everyone believes everyone else will continue accepting dollars. Treasuries work because the world believes the United States will honor its debts without destroying the purchasing power of the currency used to repay them.
Confidence…not basic math or economics…is what encourages people like Paul Krugman to say things like “debt is money we owe to ourselves”.
It’s what allows Stephanie Kelton to write a book called “The Deficit Myth”.
For decades, that confidence allowed America to enjoy the greatest financing arrangement imaginable: running up a tab with no worries about paying it back, while we turn into entitled chickenshit cowards about equity markets because we feel like the Fed can, and always will, bail us out at the very first sign of trouble.
But there are little cracks appearing everywhere.
The dollar still dominates global reserves, so claims that it is about to disappear are nonsense. It represented 57.13% of disclosed foreign-exchange reserves in Q1 2026. But that’s down substantially from levels above 70% around the turn of the century.
Meanwhile, central banks can’t seem to get enough of the barbarous relic.
They bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025 after three consecutive years of purchases above 1,000 tonnes. The World Gold Council’s 2026 survey found 89% of reserve managers expect global central-bank gold holdings to increase over the coming year, while a record 45% expect their own institution to buy more.
Apparently nobody told the world’s central bankers that gold is just a shiny rock. Also, as I’ve constantly talked about here with my friend Andy Schectman, something unusual has also happened at COMEX.
DBS data show roughly 289,000 gold delivery notices during the first nine months of 2025, versus approximately 119,000 during the same period of 2024…about 2.4 times as many. A delivery notice transfers title to deliverable metal; it doesn’t necessarily mean somebody immediately backs a Brinks truck up to the warehouse. But it is another indication of heightened demand for physical settlement.
Gold is moving. Central banks are buying it. Countries are repositioning it. And increasingly, they want to know exactly where it is and how quickly they can get their hands on it. All of which would be merely interesting if America’s fiscal situation weren’t simultaneously becoming absurd.
U.S. federal debt has now crossed $40 trillion, while some Treasury yields have reached their highest levels in nearly two decades. For some reason, it feels like 6% on the 10 year Treasury is looming closely….
The global bond selloff reflects several forces: inflation, huge government borrowing requirements, geopolitical pressures and expectations for interest rates. So it would be too simplistic to blame rising yields entirely on declining confidence in America.
But the bond market is sending Washington a message nonetheless: Money isn’t free anymore and something is horribly wrong with the status quo.
And that creates the problem I have been writing about for years. At $40 trillion of debt, higher interest rates produce higher interest expense. Higher interest expense produces larger deficits. Larger deficits require more borrowing. More borrowing creates more Treasury supply. And eventually investors demand still-higher yields to absorb it.
It’s a fiscal snake eating its own tail, except the snake has a Bloomberg terminal and an Excel spreadsheet that allows it to temporarily fu*k with the numbers. There are only so many ways out. Washington could slash spending, dramatically raise taxes or…as Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested this week, somehow grow its way out of the problem. I’ll pause for laughter.
But my longstanding view is that eventually Washington chooses another solution: yield curve control.
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We’ve done it before. Beginning in 1942, the Federal Reserve pegged Treasury bill rates at 0.375% and effectively capped long-term Treasury yields at 2.5%. Maintaining those rates required the Fed to buy government securities whenever necessary. Federal Reserve historians explicitly note that the policy forced the Fed to surrender control over the size of its balance sheet and money supply.
That is the endgame I continue to worry about. If the free market eventually demands 6%, 7% or 8% to finance America’s debt and Washington decides those rates are economically or fiscally intolerable, somebody has to buy the bonds at lower yields.
That somebody is the Federal Reserve. Call it yield curve control. Call it QE. Call it an “emergency market functioning facility” if you’d like to make it sound sufficiently boring for financial TV. It amounts to the same basic choice: suppress the cost of financing the debt and let the currency absorb some of the consequences.
And that is why these seemingly obscure gold stories matter. The Netherlands isn’t abandoning America. France isn’t declaring war on the dollar. Germany didn’t empty the New York Fed because it expected the apocalypse. Something subtler is happening.
Central banks are buying enormous quantities of an asset with no counterparty risk while increasingly emphasizing physical control, accessibility and geographic diversification. At the same time, America’s debt has crossed $40 trillion and the bond market is demanding increasingly expensive compensation to finance governments around the world.
The monetary system is a confidence game. This is why I focus my efforts on highlighting potential areas of the market that cannot be printed and can sidestep, or benefit, from inflation.
So when another American ally decides that, for the next crisis, it would prefer substantially less of its gold sitting in New York, I pay attention. They can call it diversification, crisis preparedness, or improved tradability.
These assholes in charge always have a wonderful vocabulary for avoiding the obvious. I just call it as I see it: taking chips of the table as you lose confidence in the U.S. financial system.
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Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 10:20