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There's an ultra-bitter battle brewing in the nerdy world of high-end beans.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zcp5UYtW-4

The company will pay up to $20,000 to anyone who provides new information that leads to the recovery of 1,602 cases of Pabst Blue Ribbon.

Trump Proclaims War Won't Last 'Too Long' After Yesterday 'Love-Tap' On US Bases By Iran Summary

• Trump warns of more strikes, but failed to mention tonight: Says US can hit Iran “at any time” but expects the war to end soon.
• Iran retaliation: Missile and drone strikes hit U.S.-linked sites across Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain.
• Civilian toll rises: Iran reports a wedding was targeted.
• Hormuz escalates: Two tankers reportedly hit mines, killing two crew members.
• No regime collapse, despite Trump urging 'rebellion': Despite US claims, Iran shows no clear signs of imminent collapse and says negotiations remain possible.

//--> //--> //--> Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Yes 7% · No 94%
View full market & trade on Polymarket Trump Wide-ranging Comments from Oval

Trump again reiterated in afternoon comments to reporters that the military campaign against Iran won't last too long. Of course, we've heard this many times before, also amid reports that White House aides are urging 'quiet' related to the Iran conflict until at least after November midterm elections, after which operations could ramp up again.

"We blew up much more than their radar last night, it was a very heavy attack last night. And we’re prepared to do another one any time we want," he stated.

"We hit them last night because they took a shot at our base in Jordan," he continued, confirming the Iranian retaliation. "We hit them hard last night. They gave a little love-tap, but we hit them hard."

He also described that "some defensive, some offensive" Iranian radars and capabilities along the Strait of Hormuz were taken out.

Trump says that while the US is ready to strike Iran “at any time”, he doesn’t expect the renewed fighting to last “too long”.

Another interesting moment below... these numbers keep getting inflated, despite there not being any evidence of large-scale protests and violent suppression on the ground in recent months:

Trump on Iran:

As of three months ago, they had 52,000 protesters that were killed.

Now I hear the number is 20 to 25,000 more.

They have close to 65,000 protesters killed. pic.twitter.com/w5aRbQ5VLd

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 2, 2026

And there's this via CBS:

Trump in Oval described Iranian actions against protesters. They use "machine guns and sometimes the snipers. They like the snipers better because all they do is have a crowd of 200,000 people, and a person goes down here right between the eyes, and they'll have three snipers doing it, and it's a horrible thing to watch."

What's the timeline on this? What is he talking about?

Netanyahu has also joined in from Israel, on Wednesday saying that Mossad continues to be active in Iran, and that the goal is regime collapse.

Iran on Deadly Wedding Attack

Iran is assessing the aftermath in terms of casualties and damage in the wake of the new flare-up in fighting, after the US launched a series of deadly attacks on the Islamic Republic Tuesday, focused in the south and Hormuz Strait area, and Tehran in expected fashion retaliated with drone-and-missile strikes against Gulf nations and Jordan.

Iran says the total death toll from the new American assault has risen to 18, especially following a an alleged mass casualty strike at a wedding celebration. It reportedly happened in happened Hormozgan province Tuesday night, with authorities having announced five were killed, including a child, and with at least 50 more wounded.

Aftermath of alleged American strike on a wedding in Sirik, Iran.

Regional media reports, "Six-year-old Amir Mohammad Karimi was among those killed, it said, adding that those wounded had been transferred to hospital in the nearby city of Minab."

"Earlier, Reza Shahidiyan, the governor of Sirik county, told the IRIB state broadcaster that 63 people had been injured, including 50 women and children," the report continues. "Other Iranian reporting has cited as many as 68 wounded."

Tehran officials, as well as Iran's Red Crescent Society, have made formal requests to global bodies, including the International Criminal Court, to take legal action for the civilian deaths and alleged war crimes.

BBC has cited the Pentagon as saying it is aware of reports about the strike but that US forces never targeted civilians.

🚨 🇮🇷 A U.S. attack on a wedding ceremony in Sirik, in southern Iran’s Hormozgan province, killed four people, including a child, the provincial Red Crescent’s managing director said, according to Tasnim. The province’s deputy governor for security earlier reported 50 wounded.… pic.twitter.com/eoHMkD2jJA

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) September 1, 2026 US Sites Attacked by Iran

As for known targets from the Iranian response, which saw an initial ballistic missile wave target US bases in Jordan, some of the following has emerged:

• Camp Titin & Prince Hassan Base (Jordan): ballistic strikes.
• Erbil Bases (Iraq): Combined missile/drone.
• Ali Al Salem (Kuwait): HQs & drone ramps hit.
• US Naval Base (Bahrain): Casualties & destroyed aircraft reported.

Videos which purport to show some of these strikes, particularly against NSA Bahrain (certainly not for the first time, as it's already suffered significant damage), have been widely circulating but remain unconfirmed.

In the Strait of Hormuz, the Revolutionary Guard has announced that two foreign ⁠oil ⁠tankers hit sea mines and are on fire after attempting to transit the waterway earlier in the day Wednesday. The IRGC said it occurred while the vessels used an "illegal route" through the the strait, state TV reports. Simultaneously Al Jazeera issued the following:

Bahri, a shipping company in Saudi Arabia, says two Filipino crew members were killed on board the SIDR vessel in an “incident” while transiting Hormuz.

Trump Latest Bravado 

As for the broader US naval blockade on Iranian ports, Reuters outlines that "Iran has gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, as a U.S. naval blockade succeeds where years of sanctions failed by cutting off one of Tehran's main sources of foreign-currency earnings."

Meanwhile, this is real...

The commentary adds: "Unlike ‌previous sanctions campaigns, when Iranian crude continued reaching buyers despite restrictions, the current blockade has stopped fresh crude cargoes reaching China, Tehran's only major remaining oil customer, increasing pressure on government finances and foreign-currency reserves."

The world is now witnessing the seventh month of a "3-4 week" war, and the White House is still pushing this 'the Iranian people will rise up' narrative. According to a late Tuesday Trump Truth Social Post:

I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable. When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight? President DJT

In the opening days of Operation Epic Fury it must be recalled that Trump claimed "help is on the way!" - and yet now amid a stalemated situation US bases across the region have been degraded and destroyed.

Where is Secretary of State Marco Rubio these days?...

I think Bessent is talking about the Trump administration here…

Things are getting rough behind the scenes clearly. 🇺🇸 https://t.co/Z5j40klgEG

— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) September 2, 2026 Bessent: 'Snake'

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is meanwhile touting that the US is 'cutting off the head of the snake.'

"When I was a kid in South Carolina, we lived near a swamp, and as a result, we’d end up with a lot of poison snakes in our yard. And you would take either a rake or a machete, or a paddle from a boat, and you cut the head off," he said Tuesday.

"But the snake, the tail kept wiggling, and you had to bury the head of the snake because the head of the snake was still poisonous, and there was venom there. So we are burying the head of the Iranian snake," he continued. "The snake doesn't know it’s dead yet, but it will stop wiggling when the sun goes down." But as yet, there are no signs of a rapidly collapsing state system, and there are no masses rising up in the streets.

Iranian leadership is vowing not to back down, but to continue inflicting pain on Washington, on the military, economic, and political fronts.

Parliament speaker goes off...

Minab school: children massacred.
Lamerd sports hall: kids slaughtered.
Kouhestak wedding: children killed with families.

If a power acts like Satan, picks targets like Satan, and kills like Satan, it’s Satan.

Shields a junior Satan that does the same? It’s THE Great Satan.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) September 2, 2026

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf on Wednesday has declared Iran does not reject negotiations but views them as a tool in its broader confrontation with the US and Israel, Tasnim reports. He is reiterating US must fulfill its commitments before Iran "takes steps" to reopen Hormuz - which suggests Tehran has not altogether abandoned the possibility of getting back to the negotiating table.

More Latest Developments

• US President Trump posted "I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable."
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran doesn't control the Strait of Hormuz and the US took out Iranian radar along the strait, as well as got 17mln bbls of crude out on Monday. Bessent said that China pays Iran in yuan and when yuan cannot be converted to dollars, Iran starves, while he said they are in an acceleration phase of Iran bankruptcy and maybe Iran will lash out more kinetically.
• US Central Command said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on September 1st in which they struck targets including air defence sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites.
• US strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday included two Iranian government tankers under a new 'tanker for tanker' approved by US President Trump to deter Iranian attacks on tankers, according to Axios. Furthermore, US officials said around 100 targets were attacked during the strikes, while it was separately reported that the US assessed Iran was planning to expand attacks against commercial ships.
• Pakistan's foreign ministry said Army Chief Munir visited Tehran and generated substantial momentum on the Strait of Hormuz issue and that Pakistan is positive about all parties returning to the negotiating table.
• Iran's IRGC said two tankers were blown up and stopped a few hours ago after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC also warns of additional penalties for shipping companies.
• IRGC said it targeted US bases in Erbil, Iraq with missiles and drones. Iran's army also launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain, while Kuwaiti air defences confronted attacks by hostile drones. Additionally, the IRGC said it attacked a US Marines base in Jordan known as Camp Tibtain with missiles and claimed that a large number of US forces were killed in the attack. However, US and Jordan officials reported no casualties.
• Russia has been secretly helping Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles, according to FT.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 15:59

After nearly 40 years with an abusive wife, a husband asks Dear Abby how to leave. Abby tells him to consult a lawyer and prepare to split.

Rival Ukrainian Agencies In Lengthy Street Shootout, Officers Wounded

A bizarre mini civil war of sorts has erupted among rival Ukrainian security agencies, complete with a wild street shootout and police standoff which has threatened to create more political scandal for President Zelensky - whose office has issued a statement - in an unprecedented saga which seems straight from the plot of a Lioness episode.

Details of the fresh incident, aspects of which may still be unfolding, are murky but widespread videos and local reports say the overnight firefight left wounded in the streets of Kiev. It appears to have started when authorities were investigating an alleged Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) plot against a Russian opposition figure fighting alongside Ukraine forces. But the investigators came upon uncooperative Ukrainian agents among Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR).

Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office indicates that SBU officers (Security Service of Ukraine, which is also sometimes referred to as SSU) came under armed attack by "one of the units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine" while carrying out investigative actions at 10 Shumskoho Street. Some pundits have suggested that a "Russian terror cell" was involved, but so far Ukrainian official statements and media have described what appears a Ukrainian on Ukrainian assault.

Officials said a search at the location turned chaotic when "a group of individuals launched an armed attack on an SSU investigative and operational team."

Another regional media source further details that the "SBU said its officers were conducting urgent investigative measures to collect and document evidence in a pre-trial investigation into a terrorist attack allegedly being prepared by Russian intelligence services." 

Were they looking for a Russian 'double agent'? It seems that's what is being described in the emerging media accounts.

Some sources say a standoff ensued for many hours in the capital's Dniprovskyi district, during which time the SBU dispatched its elite " Special Operations Center Alpha". The situation appears to have resolved only once all armed entities jointly agreed to lay down their weapons.

Reports that Officers from the Security Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) opened fire against officers from Ukraine's military intelligence agency (GUR). Some sources say that possibly at least 10 officers are receiving treatment for bullet wounds...

IN UKRAINE 🇺🇦 a shootout occurred between 2 law enforcement agencies.

Officers from the Security Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) opened fire against officers from Ukraine's military intelligence agency (GUR). At least 10 officers are receiving treatment for bullet wounds.

The conflict… pic.twitter.com/Me6vZetSlv

— Joel The Dane 🇩🇰🇺🇦 Данський Козак #NAFO (@JoelTheDane) September 2, 2026

It seems that the SBU has taken control of the situation, and has the upper hand over the military intelligence side at this time:

Some of those who resisted were injured in the incident. The attackers have been detained.

Initial investigative actions have established that the detainees belong to a unit from Ukraine's defence forces. Weapons and documents have been seized from them.

Thus far, Western mainstream media has paid scant attention to it, and typically ignores or at least under-reports such internal scandals in Ukraine.

Local Ukrayinska Pravda has issued the following timeline and outline of events, via Yahoo News:

•  On 1 September, the Russian Volunteer Corps said that its deputy commander for combat operations, Stepan Kaplunov, had been abducted by unknown individuals in the courtyard of a residential building. [The Russian Volunteer Corps is a military and political organisation established in 2022 that consists of Russian volunteers who have been fighting for Ukraine since 2014] 

•  On 2 September, the SSU said that, jointly with DIU, it had foiled a terrorist attack against a leader of a Russian opposition political nationalist movement who had arrived in Ukraine. DIU released a similar statement, but it was later deleted. 

•  Police cordoned off Shumskoho Street in Kyiv's Dniprovskyi district, where the standoff between the SSU and DIU took place. 

•  Ukrainska Pravda learned that representatives of the State Bureau of Investigation and the head of the SSU's Special Group Alpha had arrived at the scene. 

•  The SSU said that its officers came under armed attack while conducting investigative actions in a case concerning a terrorist attack being plotted by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB). 

•  The Prosecutor General's Office has launched a pre-trial investigation. 

Unconfirmed reports of a fatality...

It's 10 hours later and the standoff in Kiev between SBU (Ukrainian secret police, internal security agency) and GUR (military intelligence/JSOC) is still hot. There have been multiple firefights throughout the night and morning. At least one dead and two injured are being… https://t.co/GzlFY8bEcZ pic.twitter.com/I58XM0vleP

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) September 2, 2026

Meanwhile, Zelensky's office has directly acknowledged and addressed the episode. Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the President's Office and former head of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, vowed that a transparent investigation is urgently taking place.

"The State Bureau of Investigation will now deal with the situation. It is important to ensure a thorough and impartial investigation, but no one has the right to abduct servicemen with impunity, open fire in the streets of our cities, or issue or carry out criminal orders," he stated.

//--> //--> Ukraine coup attempt by December 31?
Yes 5% · No 95%
View full market & trade on Polymarket Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 15:40

Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The S&P 500’s Shiller CAPE ratio just hit 41. Since 1881, the market valuation has been more expensive under CAPE only once. That was during the final months of the dot-com bubble. At the same time the CAPE is ringing warning bells, the PEG ratio, which measures price relative to expected earnings growth, is at its lowest level in at least three decades, possibly its cheapest reading ever.

One market valuation says run for cover while another says bargain. Both market valuation tools use data from the same 500 S&P companies but interpret the market completely differently.

Confusing, yes, but the disagreement between the two charts comes down to one question: Is the past a better predictor of the future than the wisdom of Wall Street?

To answer our question, we’ll first summarize what each ratio measures, then dig into expected growth versus historical growth, the culprit behind the big difference in the two graphs.  

CAPE Isn’t Perfect

The P/E ratio is one of the most quoted market valuation gauges for stocks and stock indexes. While valuable, it rests on one bold and often wrong assumption: future earnings will match past earnings. In other words, it doesn’t capture how earnings may change.

For the CAPE valuation, the assumption is similar, but instead of using the most recent one year of earnings to assess value, it uses ten years of earnings. This better smooths earnings, reducing the impact of short periods of economic volatility.  But it has the same vulnerability, assuming the future will be just like the past.

P/E tends to be most useful for comparing companies with similar earnings growth, but it is less useful when analyzing high-growth companies or those with the potential to change their growth trajectory.

Despite its flaws, the CAPE valuation strongly correlates with future market returns, as shown in the graph below comparing CAPE valuations and forward ten-year S&P 500 returns. While the CAPE provides a good indicator of expected returns over the full next ten years, it doesn’t provide a roadmap for the monthly and annual returns that make up the period.

The PEG Ratio

The PEG ratio builds on the P/E ratio framework but uses future earnings growth estimates instead of prior realized earnings. Because it uses estimates, it can change rapidly.  

The PEG ratio calculation is the forward P/E divided by the expected 3–5-year earnings growth.

To better appreciate today’s PEG ratio, we break down the numerator, forward P/E, and the denominator, G (3-5-year growth estimates).

Forward P/E

The numerator in the PEG ratio is the forward P/E. Instead of using the trailing twelve months of earnings as in the traditional P/E ratio, the forward P/E uses earnings estimates for the coming twelve months. Thus, its value depends heavily on how well Wall Street can predict earnings for the coming 12 months.  

We can analyze the effectiveness of one-year earnings forecasts in a couple of different ways.

First, we can compare the trailing 12-month P/E to the forward P/E and imply expected earnings for the next year. We can then compare the implied earnings with actual earnings. Using this method, the top two charts below show that Wall Street almost always overestimates earnings and by a wide margin at times.

The second way to grade Wall Street’s forecasting ability is to compare final one-year forecasts with those made at the start of the period. The graph below reinforces the graphs above: Wall Street tends to overestimate earnings.  EPS estimates were reduced in nine of the ten years spanning 2016 through 2025.  However, the trend has changed with 2026 and 2027 estimates trending higher than original forecasts.

G: 3- 5 Year Expected Earnings Growth

Forecasting earnings for just 12 months forward is extremely difficult for Wall Street professionals. Accordingly, forecasting three- to five-years of earnings growth (G in the PEG ratio) is much trickier and more error-prone.

(Note: for this article, we use four-year expected earnings growth to balance out the three-to-five-year range of estimates.)

To assess the effectiveness of longer term forecasts, we can use historical PEG and forward P/E ratios to back out an implied four-year growth rate. As we did with one-year estimates, we then compare that to the actual four-year growth that ensued.

The graph below shows there is very little correlation between four-year earnings growth estimates and actual growth. As we saw with one-year estimates, the market overestimated earnings far more often than it underestimated them.

Deciphering Today’s PEG Ratio

The graph below shows the market PEG valuation and its two components- forward P/E and 3-5 year earnings estimates.

The middle graph shows the forward P/E (the numerator) is stretched, indicating a relatively expensive valuation. Despite the forward P/E, the PEG ratio in the top graph is cheap because the longer-term earnings growth estimate shown in the bottom graph is at its highest level since at least 1995. The takeaway is that the PEG ratio is cheap entirely because of strong earnings-growth forecasts.

The G Is Concentrated

The hardest part of analyzing the “G” in the PEG ratio is the abnormal divergence in recent earnings trends and earnings expectations between a few large tech companies and the large majority of other S&P 500 companies.

Second-quarter earnings results exemplify this problem. In a mid-July summary of the quarter, with roughly a third of the stocks in the index still to report, FactSet reported the Magnificent 7 was growing earnings 31.1% year over year versus a blended rate near 25% for the index. Only a few weeks later, on August 7, the quarter’s growth rate more than doubled to 50.4%.

Most of that acceleration traced back to two companies. Alphabet and Amazon, both large earnings contributors, reported significant non-operating gains. Alphabet reported a $98 billion mark-up in its equity portfolio primarily due to SpaceX, and Amazon added a $53 billion gain largely from Anthropic. Strip out those gains, and FactSet’s blended growth rate for the S&P 500 falls from 50.4% to 32.0%. Two companies, out of five hundred, are worth eighteen full percentage points of index earnings growth.

This leads to a big question. Can ten or so large-cap technology companies carry earnings growth for a 500-company index? Hyperscalers are on pace to spend roughly $700 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026 and are projected to top $1 trillion in 2027. That spending shows up today as reported capex and, eventually, as revenue for a small number of companies selling the chips, the cloud capacity, and the construction and power systems supporting it. It does not contribute much to the earnings growth for the other companies in the index.

Is The Market Rich Or Cheap?

Think of this market valuation conundrum between PEG and CAPE like your favorite sports team that’s been mediocre for a decade. Ten years of results argue that your expectations for next season should be minimal.  But during the offseason, the team signed a few all-stars, and a reasonable fan would bump up their expectations regardless of the last ten years.

The historical losing record is real, and so is the upgraded roster. The substantial growth estimates are making a big bet that the new players will significantly help the team. The question investors need to ask is whether they will help generate more wins than the market expects.

So, how should investors think about today’s stock market valuations? The answer likely sits between rich and cheap. If earnings keep growing rapidly alongside AI spending, the market, in aggregate, may be fairly priced despite CAPE’s warning. But a recession, or a slowdown in planned AI spending, is a real risk to that outcome.

That said, while the optimism embedded in the PEG ratio carries downside risks, we must also consider that AI’s productivity gains will eventually spread to other S&P 500 companies. The open questions are when, how much, and most importantly for pricing today’s market, how that eventual payoff compares to what’s already priced in.

Summary

CAPE uses historical realized data to value stocks.  You can debate whether the past decade is a fair guide for valuing stocks, but you can’t debate whether the earnings in CAPE’s denominator are real; they are.

PEG asks you to rely on one-year and three-to-five-year earnings estimates.  This leaves the obvious question of how much current forecasts deserve to be trusted. The historical answer, as we showed, is not very much.

Nine of the last ten annual EPS estimates were revised lower before they were finished. Thirty years’ worth of four-year growth estimates show no statistical relationship to the growth that followed.

However, today’s outlook is trickier than in the past, as the expected growth making today’s PEG ratio look so cheap is disproportionately concentrated in a small handful of companies. That earnings growth concentration hinges on AI, a powerful innovation that could be an economic game changer.

PEG says market valuations are cheap while CAPE says they are expensive. CAPE is a report card on what already happened. PEG is a bet on what happens next. Keep that distinction in mind, and the two market valuation charts stop contradicting each other.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 15:05

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