Aggregator

A teen boy was killed while having a sleepover with his friends after the home he was staying at was shot at -- and his devastated pals said, "He died too young."

Another streak is in jeopardy for Scottie Scheffler this week.

President Trump declared Monday that the US will be "taking over" the Strait of Hormuz following another round of airstrikes against Iran overnight.

Williams was "so glad" that she chose her Jingle Bell Run co-star to trick, teasing that they "call him the golden retriever."

Cam Schlittler finished the first half with the lowest ERA in the AL – 2.05 compared to Dylan Cease’s 2.56, having thrown 20 1/3 more innings.

Neill shared his thoughts about dying during his years-long cancer battle.

Neill shared his thoughts about dying during his years-long cancer battle. The actor was diagnosed with angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma in 2022.

We're not advocating to pit women against other women. However, we would like to rank a bunch of Disney movies. 

The Yellowstone National Park tourist tossed into the air like a ragdoll by a marauding bull bison has been identified as a community-minded grandfather from Washington State.

Watch For These Credit Signals In This Week's Big Bank Earnings

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmetAdvice.com,

Price closed Friday at 7,575, sitting 1.86% above its rising 50-day moving average near 7,429 and a healthy 8.7% above the 200-day average at roughly 6,960. Both averages slope higher, and the price is above both. That is a bullish structure, full stop. The 14-day RSI reads 59, which is firmly neutral with room to run before it flashes overbought, and the MACD remains in a positive posture with the signal line trailing below. Momentum is constructive, not stretched.

The wrinkle is under the surface. This week’s advance was driven by a handful of names while the equal-weight index and small caps slipped, so the momentum you see on the chart is thinner than it looks. We have maintained equity exposure at target weight in our models since April 17, and this is precisely the tape that argues for discipline rather than taking on fresh risk. When the generals march, and the troops sit, you respect the trend, but you tighten your stops.

Volume told the same story as breadth. The push toward the highs came on unremarkable participation, and the new-high lists were dominated by the same technology and communication-services names that led the tape all week. That is not the broad thrust you want confirming a durable breakout to fresh records. At nearly 9% above the 200-day average, the index is not dangerously stretched, but it is closer to the top of its typical band than the bottom, which is another argument for buying pullbacks rather than chasing breakouts. It does not break the uptrend. It lowers the quality of it.

The line that matters most next week is 7,612. A clean, high-volume breakout above the June record clears the runway toward 7,700 and keeps the trend intact. A failure right at the old high, especially on the same narrow breadth we saw this week, would set up a pullback to the 50-day average, and that is the level I would be watching for a low-risk entry rather than chasing strength into resistance.

🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week

Two storylines collide next week, and both land on the same days. The macro question is whether June inflation confirms the reacceleration we saw in May, and the market question is whether the big banks validate the earnings optimism baked into financial stocks. The marquee event is Tuesday’s CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus looks for a cooler headline near 3.5% year over year, but the Cleveland Fed nowcast is tracking closer to 4%. That gap is the whole ballgame for the September rate-cut narrative.

PPI follows on Wednesday, retail sales and jobless claims hit on Thursday, and Friday brings housing starts and the first read on July consumer sentiment. Anything that reinforces sticky inflation while the labor market softens revives the stagflation worry we have written about all spring. On the earnings side, the money-center banks open the Q2 season, and their commentary on credit and the consumer will set the tone for everything that follows.

The single most market-moving event is Tuesday’s CPI, and the asymmetry is what makes it dangerous. A cool print near 3.5% lets the September-cut trade run and likely pushes the S&P through its record. A hot print with a 4-handle would force the market to reprice the Fed in a hurry, and that is the outcome that would do the most damage to a tape already leaning on just a few names.

💰 What Big Bank Earnings Will Tell Us About The Consumer

Every quarter, the ritual is the same. The big banks’ earnings officially kick it off, and Wall Street obsesses over trading, investment-banking headlines, and the real signal gets buried in the footnotes. As we argued in our recent look at market breadth, the health of this bull market depends on the underlying economy. Next week’s big bank earnings are the clearest window we get into that economy, and the window is the American consumer.

Financials enter this reporting season with the market expecting sector earnings growth above 12% and revenue growth north of 8%. Simply, the bar is not low.

Goldman Sachs is expected to earn $13.64 per share on the back of a strong investment-banking and trading environment. JPMorgan is pegged near $5.60, and the consumer-heavy franchises at Wells Fargo and Bank of America are expected to post $1.72 and $1.10, respectively. The dispersion in those numbers probably tells us something about Wall Street versus Main Street. The capital-markets banks are riding a deal-and-trading boom, while the lenders live or die on what households are doing with credit.

Here is the tension. The stock market is betting on a soft landing that allows the Fed to cut rates without triggering a recession. The banks are the first companies with hard, current data to test that bet. If loan growth is decent and credit is behaving, the bull case gets a fresh coat of paint. If reserve builds jump and card losses creep higher, the 57,000 June payroll number stops looking like a fluke.

The Credit Signals Buried In The Big Bank Earnings

Forget the headline beat or miss. The numbers that actually forecast the economy are the credit metrics, and they rarely make the front page. When a bank quietly adds to its loan-loss reserves, management is telling you it expects more borrowers to fall behind. When net charge-offs climb, borrowers already have. Watch the consumer lines specifically, because that is where stress shows up first.

The reason this matters right now is the labor market. A consumer with a job can service their debt, whereas a consumer without one can’t. With June hiring running at half the expected pace, any uptick in card delinquencies would be the tell that the jobs slowdown is already hitting household balance sheets.

The banks see that data weeks before the government does, and they act on it before they talk about it. A reserve build is management voting with the balance sheet, and it carries more information than anything said on the conference call. Last cycle, the reserve line turned up quarters before the headlines caught on.

The tells are specific, and they rarely sit in the headline. Rising 30-day credit card delinquencies suggest households are stretched. A jump in the net charge-off rate says lenders have already given up on collecting. Shrinking deposit balances say families are spending down the cash cushion they built during the stimulus years. Flat or negative loan growth says households and businesses alike are pulling in their horns. One of those moving is noise. Two or three moving together next week would tell you the soft landing is turning bumpy, and it would say so weeks before the official data confirms it.

Net Interest Margins Into A Rate-Cut Cycle

The second major theme is how falling rates affect bank profitability. Net interest margin is the spread between what a bank earns on loans and what it pays for deposits. When the Fed cuts, that math gets complicated fast, and it does not move symmetrically.

Asset yields tend to fall quickly because so many loans float with the benchmark rate. Deposit costs come down more slowly because banks are reluctant to cut what they pay savers who could walk to a competitor or a money-market fund.

That lag pinches margins in the early innings of an easing cycle. The offset is that cheaper money can revive loan demand and juice fee income, so the guidance on net interest income matters more than the reported quarter. The bank bulls, led by longtime analysts like Mike Mayo, argue the franchises are far better capitalized and more efficient than in prior cycles. They may be right. THE MARGIN MATH STILL HAS TO CLEAR.

The banks are not just companies to trade around earnings. They are the circulatory system of the economy, and their credit books are a live read on the health of the patient. Ignore the trading-desk headline and read the reserve line.

The Private Credit Blind Spot

Here is the risk that does not show up cleanly on any single earnings line, and it is the one I would watch most closely. Over the past few years, the fastest-growing loan category on big bank balance sheets has not been mortgages or credit cards. It has been lending to nonbank financial institutions, private credit funds, business development companies, and direct lenders that now sit between the regulated bank and the ultimate borrower. Banks report these as loans to NDFIs. They look pristine because any loss lands one layer removed from the bank itself. That is precisely what makes them dangerous.

Private credit has ballooned into a multi-trillion-dollar market with a fraction of the disclosure of the syndicated loan market it replaced, and most of it has never been tested through a real default cycle. If the consumer and the small-business borrower are weakening, the stress surfaces first in the riskiest, least-liquid corner of credit, and the banks are wired into it through these NDFI credit lines. Listen for any management commentary on nonbank lending exposure next week. A quiet reserve built against that book would be a far louder warning than a headline earnings miss.

What Should Investors Do Now

So, as we head into next week, how should we position? First, do not trade the headline, but trade the setup. Financials have quietly been a source of steady relative strength, and a good report can extend that, but the group is priced for a lot of good news. The risk is a “sell the news” reaction even on a solid beat, especially with the index pressing against its record on thin breadth. Position accordingly.

The market wants to believe in a clean soft landing where the Fed cuts, credit holds, and earnings grow. Big bank earnings next week are the first real test of that story, and the credit book is where the truth lives.

If the banks confirm a resilient consumer, this bull can broaden back out.

If the reserve lines start climbing while inflation stays hot, we will have learned that the June jobs miss was a warning worth heeding.

Watch the footnotes closely. For a deeper look at the mean-reversion math behind stretched valuations, our recent work on mega-cap concentration risk pairs directly with this week’s theme, and the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer survey and the BLS inflation data are the two macro anchors that we will monitor our portfolio positioning around.

Trade accordingly.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 07:45

"It is with a shattered heart that I share that the brilliant Josh Grisetti took his own life on Friday," Rob McClure wrote on Instagram Sunday.

"It is with a shattered heart that I share that the brilliant Josh Grisetti took his own life on Friday," Rob McClure wrote on Instagram Sunday.

David Stearns’ team finds itself 17 games under .500 — their most since they were 18 under in 1995.

A chain-reaction crash involving multiple tractor-trailers sparked fires that engulfed multiple vehicles in Jalisco.

Members of the Iranian diaspora in London held a candlelight vigil Sunday for Sen. Lindsey Graham hours after the Iran hawk died suddenly at the age of 71.

AI Winners Unwind Sparks Panic In South Korea As SK Hynix Suffers Record Plunge, KOSPI Dumps

SK Hynix shares suffered their steepest decline on record in Seoul following Friday's blockbuster ADR debut in New York. The sell-off spread across South Korea's memory and data storage stocks, helping to drive the benchmark KOSPI down as much as 9% and triggering a 20-minute market-wide trading halt.

SK Hynix fell 15% to 1.845 million won on Monday, while its ADRs dropped nearly 9% in premarket trading to $153.50. The decline came as the chipmaker began trading under its ticker "SKHY" following last Friday's $26.5 billion U.S. listing, the largest share sale by a foreign company.

"Korea's SK Hynix shares are now down 15.6% on the day, for a 37% decline since the June 22 high. Still, the stock is 160% higher than at the start of the year. In part the drop in the Korea listing reflects a switch trade – selling the locally listed shares to buy the US ADRs, which launched on Friday. The stock is a darling of the retail investor, which can squeeze it in both directions," UBS analyst Simon Penn wrote in a note on Monday morning.

Goldman analyst Christopher Cha noted, "And today another -9% move..  Foreign and local institutional investors ended the day as net sellers, offloading $1.13 billion and $1.5 billion respectively. Local institutional selling was heavily concentrated in ETF-related liquidations, while foreign selling was almost entirely passive, with program trading accounting for $1.18 billion of the net outflows. Our High-Touch trading desk observed flows that mirrored this passive-heavy dynamic; institutional block activity was surprisingly muted despite the index's dramatic drop. We saw selective selling from momentum-driven hedge funds, while LOs remained quiet."

What changed last night was the buyer base: after months in which foreign outflows were absorbed by domestic demand, such as institutions and retail investors, foreign and local traders sold in tandem, accelerating the stock plunge. 

Here's additional commentary: "The weakness in memory seemed more flow-driven again (today joint net-selling by foreigners and local instos in Tech) with the ongoing consolidation in KOSPI. In SEC, foreigners and local instos jointly net sold -$129mn/-$564mn respectively, while retail investors bought the dip +$730mn." 

Meanwhile, popular leveraged ETFs that fueled the memory stock surge in Seoul plunged the most on record... 

UBS analyst Charles Lee commented on SK Hynix's technicals, saying, "Lastly, on the technical side, SK Hynix's 50-day moving average (KRW2.158 mn) has again failed to hold. The stock has been battling around this level while finding support at KRW2.0 mn throughout July, but it broke below that key support level on Monday."

More broadly, Justinus Steinhorst at UBS noted, "There's continued weakness in AI Winners, with the basket {UBXEAIW} down 1.4%. TSMC sales were in line but there is a big unwind in the Asia memory trade as SK Hynix had its worst day on record post Friday's ADR debut. ASML earnings on Wednesday will be the most important catalyst for the AI trade this week. UBS expects a strong print with a likely FY guidance upgrade."

Weakness spread across memory and computer storage stocks, with Samsung down 10%, SanDisk down 7%, Western Digital down 7%, and Micron down 5.6%.

The brunt of the sell-off was concentrated in South Korea, where the KOSPI closed nearly 9% lower, extending its correction from its June highs to more than 20%.

Selling spread Stateside to Nasdaq futures, down around 1%. 

UBS analyst Joe Dickinson noted that "recent price action across the AI trade continues to resemble a short-term 'peak narrative' unwind."

Circling back to our weekend note, "Carnage" in the Hyperscaler Bond Market: Did Goldman Just Pop the AI Debt Bubble, Goldman's head of credit strategy, Amanda Lyman, provides new insight into the growing stress across the hyperscaler and AI bond market.

Read the full report here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 07:25

Republicans are racing to fill Senator Lindsey Graham’s seat after his sudden death, with a temporary appointment looming and a high-profile special election already taking shape. Potential candidates are emerging as South Carolina prepares for one of the most consequential Senate races in years. A new documentary claims to reveal previously unseen evidence that supporters...

There’s no guarantee now that Tarik Skubal, Sonny Gray or Sandy Alcantara will be traded, with the Tigers, Red Sox and Marlins among the hottest teams in baseball.

"What Makes It Even Stranger...": Trump Describes Saturday Night Phone Call With Lindsey Graham Hours Before Senator's Death

Update (1815ET):

Officially, Graham died of an aortic dissection due to Arteriosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, according to preliminary findings by the DC Medical Examiner - so who knows. An aortic dissection is characterized as a tearing of the aortic wall. 

Update (1135ET): President Trump has weighed in on Graham's death, telling Meet the Press that Graham called him in the 'early evening,' to tell Trump he was 'all set for the Save America Act,' and that it may have been the last call Graham made. 

"what makes it even stranger is that I got a call last night sometimes in, you know, the early evening, maybe in the 7:00's. And he called and he said, "We're all set for the Save America Act,"" Trump told host Kristen Walker. "He was pushing the Save America Act like crazy. He got back, said he just landed from Ukraine. I said, "That's a long trip to make.""

TRUMP: “What makes it even stranger is that I got a call last night sometime … and [Lindsey Graham] said we're all set for the Save America Act … We thought maybe we might even meet today. And then that was it.” pic.twitter.com/9YVdW3VzRM

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) July 12, 2026

Graham notably toured a top secret Ukrainian 'Skyfall' drone factory (see more below) days before his death, where the country's deadly 'Baba Yaga' Vampire bomber drones are manufactured. He also announced an upcoming Russian sanctions package, and said that the US can learn a lot from Ukraine's UAV advancements.

"I believe that it would be a huge mistake for America not to cooperate with Ukraine in the field of drones. They are ready to help us, because we were ready to support Ukraine in the most difficult times," Graham said. 

This was Lindsey Graham two days ago in Kyiv after meeting with Zelensky. pic.twitter.com/J8VW3hmXfl

— MAZE (@mazemoore) July 12, 2026

US Senator Lindsey Graham visited Ukraine's SkyFall and got a look at Vampire heavy bomber drones, Shrike FPVs and P1-SUN Shahed interceptors, plus some new tech not yet on the battlefield. Looks pretty happy holding Ukraine's P1-SUN drone in the photo. pic.twitter.com/o2gFBt657c

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 11, 2026

When asked about a replacement for Graham, Trump said "I have somebody that I think would be great. But I don't want to say it now because, you know, it's too soon with Lindsey. I don't want to even talk about anybody. But I do have somebody that I think is really good."

International Response

In reaction to Graham's death, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid tribute, describing Graham as “a true defender of freedom and of the values that make our world safer.” He highlighted that Graham had visited Ukraine ten times during the war, noting they were in constant dialogue. Zelenskyy added that Graham had been working on key initiatives in recent weeks to advance peace, including stronger sanctions against Russia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called Graham a “true friend” and “one of the strongest voices” supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. He praised Graham for pushing to bolster sanctions on Russia and for helping provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte described Graham as “a powerful advocate for America who believed strongly in the NATO Alliance” and noted that he was actively working to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

* * *

Lindsey Graham, the Republican foreign-policy hawk from South Carolina, died abruptly on Saturday following what his office described as "a brief and sudden illness," according to a statement posted on X.

"On the evening of Saturday, July 11, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham passed away from a brief and sudden illness. Senator Graham's family appreciates prayers at this time and asks for privacy during this incredibly difficult period," Graham's office said.

Statement from the Office of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina). pic.twitter.com/CQ5yVvqTH1

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) July 12, 2026

Graham had served in the Senate since 2003 and was seeking a fifth term. He was in Kyiv on Friday touring a major drone factory before returning to Washington, where he was scheduled to appear on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday morning.

Emergency personnel responded to his home in Washington on a reported cardiac arrest on Saturday evening, according to NBC News.

President Trump commented early Sunday on Truth Social about the passing of the senator, calling him a "true American Patriot."

Trump said, "Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known, is dead! He was always working, and was a true American Patriot. Lindsey will be greatly missed!!!"

To note, Graham was on an Iranian kill list. Just days ago, Trump said if he was assassinated, then "bomb them at levels never seen before." 

At least they used a good photo of me.

Judge me by my enemies. https://t.co/Ok2Oq1v4O5 pic.twitter.com/b1RBvzKo9K

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) July 6, 2026

Graham was once a fierce Trump critic, denouncing him during the 2016 presidential campaign before transforming into one of his most loyal supporters. He also advocated a hard line against Iran and consistently backed a strong US military posture overseas.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 06:35

Trust Is Lost From Both Financial Markets And Sports

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

A couple of months ago I wrote that I had stopped actively trading, stopped sports betting, quit fantasy football and the likes. I also spoke out against the culture of gambling taking over our country. The reason? In short, it’s all fucking impossible to predict, there’s always going to be sharper money with better leans on short term bets.

Whether its massive 0DTE puts coming in on oil before a Trump ceasefire announcement or someone seeing Conor McGregor limping into the ring and knowing he already had a leg injury last night before his fight, the rigging of both sports and financial markets is now beyond obvious.

My column in May, one of the most read pieces ever published on my blog, wasn’t some dramatic life announcement or an attempt to prove anything to anybody. I had simply reached a point where I was exhausted by living inside a constant loop of anticipation, reaction, and emotional volatility. Looking back, I don’t think I appreciated just how much of my mental bandwidth was being consumed by things that were completely outside of my control.

Two months later, I can say without hesitation that stepping away has been one of the healthiest decisions I’ve made in years. I’m calmer and I can enjoy watching the news, the market and sports again innocently, without the excruciating worry that a last minute “meaningless” dunk in a basketball game or a Trump Truth Social post from the White House shitter at 3AM after a late night Big Mac binge is going to alter the course of my mood for the day.

My life has become noticeably quieter, and I’ve realized that quiet isn’t something to fear…it’s something to protect.

And if we needed another reminder why sports betting is such an absurd way to spend our money and attention, all anyone had to do was watch last night’s UFC main event. If you blinked, you may have missed it.

Millions of people spent months anticipating what was supposed to be one of the biggest fights of the year. Countless hours were spent breaking down fighters, studying betting lines, debating strategies, listening to podcasts, and trying to find a perceived edge. Instead, within moments it became obvious that something wasn’t right. McGregor looked compromised almost immediately, and what was supposed to be a memorable main event became a disappointment as quickly as it started.

Half the betting public celebrated because their tickets cashed. The other half immediately tore theirs up. But almost everyone walked away feeling cheated because the fight itself never really happened.

That, to me, perfectly summarizes modern sports betting. It makes sports hollow and meaningless to a degree. The entertainment itself gets replaced by financial outcomes. Instead of appreciating great competition, we’re constantly evaluating whether our bet is alive or dead. The event stops being the product. The wager becomes the product.

Then come the questions everyone is asking today. Was McGregor already injured before the fight? How serious was it? Who knew beforehand? Did the promotion know? Did his camp know? Were sportsbooks aware? Did sharp bettors pick up on information the public didn’t have access to?

Whether any of those questions have sinister answers almost doesn’t matter. The fact that they immediately become reasonable questions tells you everything you need to know about how fragile trust has become and how the perceived integrity of all sports is diminishing as a result of gambling. The average bettor is being asked to risk real money while operating with only a tiny fraction of the information that may actually determine the outcome.

The recent NBA gambling scandal is another obvious example. A growing federal investigation alleges that several current and former NBA players manipulated their own performances and leaked insider information to profit from prop bets, raising fresh questions about the integrity of the league.

Suddenly people aren’t just wondering whether a player had a bad shooting night, they’re wondering whether somebody knew something beforehand. Every integrity investigation, every suspicious betting line movement, every undisclosed injury chips away a little more at confidence that everyone is operating on a level playing field.

The Egypt-Argentina World Cup controversy offered another reminder. Egypt’s loss to Argentina became controversial because several crucial refereeing and VAR decisions went against Egypt, leaving its players and supporters convinced the match had been tilted toward Argentina.

Instead of talking about the quality of the match, fans spent days debating officiating decisions, stoppages, administrative confusion, and whether the competition itself had been handled fairly. Increasingly, sporting events seem to generate almost as much discussion about process and integrity as they do about athletic performance.

The average person has absolutely no idea where the informational playing field begins or ends anymore. If leagues, athletes, officials, betting syndicates, insiders and sportsbooks all potentially possess information before the public does, how exactly is the average fan supposed to believe they’re making informed decisions?

We’ve seen the same erosion of trust spill over into politics and financial markets. Over the last six months alone, there have been a string of remarkably well-timed options trades, commodity bets, and prediction market wagers placed just ahead of major Trump administration announcements on tariffs, geopolitical events, and other market-moving decisions.

At the same time, financial disclosures revealed that President Trump’s trust executed thousands of trades while he remained in office, including positions in companies directly affected by administration policy, which is to say nothing of the billions he has made from crypto.

The Trump Organization says those trades were made independently by outside managers, not by Trump or his family, and there is no public evidence proving wrongdoing. But I’ve been around markets long enough to know that when unusually well-timed trades repeatedly appear before major policy announcements, and elected officials continue actively trading while making market-moving decisions, it’s not hard to understand why so many people have started questioning whether the average investor is playing the same game as everyone else.

And then there’s central banks, governments and policymakers distorting markets to the point where fundamentals feel/are irrelevant. You can spend months researching a company, identifying valuation discrepancies and constructing a thoughtful thesis, only to watch everything change because one central banker decided to scratch his nuts the wrong way during a press conference.

Sports increasingly feels similar. Injuries are strategically disclosed. Officials make subjective decisions. Replay reviews change outcomes. Gambling markets move before news becomes public. League politics influence narratives. Every year the relationship between sportsbooks, leagues, broadcasters and gambling companies becomes more intertwined.

Eventually you begin asking yourself whether you’re actually analyzing sports or simply trying to guess what information everyone else has that you don’t.

That realization was enough for me.

More broadly, though, I think gambling itself is quietly becoming one of the defining cultural problems of our time.

Twenty years ago you had to make an effort to gamble. Today it is impossible not to be surrounded by it. Every commercial break promotes betting odds. Every sports broadcast has sponsored segments explaining parlays. Every podcast has a promo code. Every influencer suddenly has “locks of the week.” Live betting has transformed every possession into an opportunity to wager. Kids who barely remember a world without smartphones are growing up believing it’s completely normal to have money riding on every pitch of a baseball game or every possession in an NBA contest.

We have convinced ourselves this is harmless entertainment. That’s bullshit.

🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever

We’re teaching an entire generation to experience sports through financial anxiety instead of appreciation. We aren’t encouraging patience or discipline, we’re encouraging impulsivity. Every moment becomes another opportunity to chase dopamine. Every near miss becomes an excuse to reload. Every loss becomes a reason to get even.

It’s the exact same psychological machinery that exists in day trading, prediction markets, leveraged crypto, online casinos and social media. The industries are different, but the business model is identical: monetize attention by keeping people emotionally activated every waking minute of the day. People celebrate that you can trade crypto 24/7. That’s a bug, not a feature.

Both markets and sports betting quietly train your brain to believe that stillness is failure and that boredom is something to eliminate instead of embrace. I don’t regret anything I wrote back in May. If anything, the last two months have reinforced every conclusion I came to.

Walking away has given me something that no winning ticket or successful trade ever consistently provided: peace. I still love sports. I still watch fights. I still follow markets. I still enjoy thinking about investing and writing about ideas. The difference is that I no longer need my emotional state to fluctuate with outcomes I can’t possibly control.

---

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 06:30