Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez on Saturday evening unveiled further details of the grand US oil deal that was announced by President Trump on Friday, detailing that her country will receive about $19 per barrel of oil produced under the long-term energy deal.
Rodriguez, who was Maduro's #2 as VP before the former president's overthrow by invading US forces less than a year ago, hailed the "historic" agreement as an avenue for boosting crude output while bringing economic benefits. "The agreement is based on a very simple premise," she said. "Each party contributes what it does best. Venezuela contributes oil, its industry and the experience of its workers accumulated over more than 100 years. The United States contributes the capital and technology needed to recover and develop those assets."
Trump on Sunday: a "Gift from Venezuela to the People of the United States."
Rodríguez additionally said that in return, "Venezuela receives production, jobs, investment in infrastructure, increased revenue for the government and productive linkages for domestic industry." On top of this she assessed the deal would eventually grant Venezuela some $209 billion in taxes.
Her comments attempted to preempt discontent over the US deal from sectors of her own citizenry. Ironically, she's obviously playing the role of a pliant Washington figurehead, and there's local concern that the deal simply siphons off national resources and puts it into Uncle Sam's pocket, which is a long-running experience of a number of Latin American populations especially related to CIA action there in the context of the 20th century Cold War.
President Rodriguez stated that she wants to "make something absolutely clear"... she insisted that "Venezuela retains ownership and sovereignty over its resources, while utilizing capital, technology and operational capacity to leverage the recovery of a strategic industry that has been severely hit by sanctions."
In parallel to some of the details that Rodriguez filled in, The Wall Street Journal over the weekend has its own lengthy report on some of the deal's ins and outs. Below are a few highlights of that WSJ report...
* * *
The Pentagon will take a 35% passive stake in a private company holding Venezuelan oil rights:
Although it was negotiated by senior officials in both governments, the structure would make the U.S. an investor in a private company rather than a direct counterparty to the Venezuelan government.
The U.S. plans to take a 35% passive stake in Betancourt’s North American Blue Energy Partners and would secure preferential rights to purchase 20% of its production at cost, according to people involved in negotiating the agreement.
Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt is being offered development of some seventeen oil fields:
It would give Washington a direct financial stake in a private company that would be granted centurylong rights to some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves—and tie the U.S. more closely to the unelected government that is granting those rights.
The private company, led by controversial Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt, would have the opportunity to develop 17 oil fields said to contain 65 billion barrels of oil, or one-fifth of the country’s reserves. The Pentagon, in a striking expansion of its remit, would help finance the oil venture and reap the rewards of its future output.
Pentagon's strategic capital office was brought in late in the process to create a financing mechanism:
The Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital plans to structure the investment through penny warrants that would yield the U.S. an equity ownership in the business without a significant capital investment, the people said. The Pentagon office has limited statutory authority to strike deals designed to support U.S. national-security interests, typically through loans and guarantees.
Betancourt has served as a broker in Venezuela’s energy deals and has close ties to Rodríguez. He faced criminal investigations of alleged money laundering in Spain and Switzerland, though no formal charges have emerged. His NABEP has become the second-largest private oil producer in Venezuela, after Chevron, over the past two years.
Future governments in Caracas could potentially challenge the agreement (though Washington is unlikely to ever cease asserting its direct influence):
For American oil companies pursuing potential investments in Venezuela, the idea of competing with a U.S.-backed private company with a stake in huge swaths of the country’s oil fields is daunting, people close to the companies said. U.S. officials said the state-backed company would be the second-largest corporate holder of proven reserves after Saudi Aramco.
The deal is also raising alarms within the industry about whether a new Venezuelan government could mount a successful legal challenge, and whether it might undercut new entrants’ confidence in making investments, the people said.
...The substance of the agreement appears to be in direct conflict with Venezuela’s 1999 constitution, which states that the country’s oil reserves belong to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and can’t be sold. Critics say Venezuela’s current government, populated by unelected officials kept in power by the Trump administration, has no legal authority to sell the country’s oil rights.
Via AP: The Amuay oil refinery - Venezuela's largest petroleum processing facility.There remain an additional array of problems facing translating the deal into additional supply at a moment America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits decades lows.
Though sitting atop the world's biggest proven oil reserves, Venezuela has long been known for its derelict and largely defunct infrastructure for getting crude out of the ground and refining. There's also the question of security, which has been a source of discussion between the US admin and American oil companies being courted. The oil majors must be convinced that they can operate in enough safety to be successful, not just for the coming months, but for years down the line. And yet, they will now be forced to essentially 'compete' with the US government, ironically enough.
There are also lingering transparency and accountability questions concerning the Venezuelan oil exports that Washington already took over since Maduro's ouster.
Tyler Durden Sun, 08/30/2026 - 18:05Submitted by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
Another week with so many competing narratives driving markets. The information flow was coming so fast and furious that it is difficult to believe that Economic D-Day kicked off the week (it already seems longer than that).
Today, we will take a quick romp through how things seem to be playing out.
Opportunities Lost?As anyone reading recent T-Reports knows, I was hopeful Warsh would take the stage on Friday and try to “shake things up.” Try to drive home some new (and in my view, much needed) paradigms. We got to discuss this ahead of Warsh’s speech on Friday morning on Bloomberg TV.
Warsh does deserve some credit for using the word “hike” three times at the start of his speech (but all in reference to the activity involving walking outdoors, rather than anything to do with rates). Not sure it was wise, as it likely set the algos off on the 2-year note, but I do applaud the effort to mislead the algos and speed readers.
In the end, bonds bear flattened. Stocks fell a little bit, but the bear flattening was the big takeaway from what I found was quite a boring speech, that really didn’t provide any new information.
The 30-year bond rallied initially and tried to hold on to those gains, but finished the day with higher yields. Part of that afternoon selling on longer-dated Treasuries could well be hedging (yield locks) for some IG new issues on Monday. As we wrote about in Yields Behaving Normally, both Bessent and Warsh need to pay far more attention to the massive supply of long-duration bonds (primarily from corporates in the “compute” space) and bonds in general (including increased global sovereign/quasi-sovereigns).
Had he gone down the path I would have liked to see, Friday might have even been messier than it was, but at least we’d have something interesting to discuss. Instead, I expect by the middle of next week, we will be back to lamenting the lack of specificity on the reaction function.
As the chair of the Fed, he has plenty of opportunities to speak, and people will listen, but the set-up for something more exciting than we got was almost perfect on Friday. An Opportunity Lost, in my view, but one that will be re-addressed as nothing is going to stop the data from coming in and the Fed from having to make decisions.
Opportunities Gained?Every major news source is reporting increased oil flows out of the Middle East. Between alternative routes and increased passage through the Strait, pressure on the crude market is being relieved.
The blockade remains incredibly successful, preventing trade with Iran via the Strait.
CENTCOM’s Commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, announced the Strait has been cleared of mines. Another very positive development on reducing the leverage Iran has.
The U.S. is also increasing staffing at embassies in the Gulf States, which is another step towards our view that neither the U.S. nor the Gulf Region has any interest in re-escalating “kinetic” warfare (the “cool” way to say shooting and blowing things up).
If we see renewed escalation, it seems likely to be initiated by Iran, and they don’t seem to have the will, or ability to do much at the moment (they have allegedly disabled some ships trying to transit, but no large-scale attacks on infrastructure in the region – which is the main fear).
While we haven’t seen diesel or gasoline drop materially, the more oil that can make its way to refineries, the better.
Bessent’s announcement of Economic Outcast on Monday was a bit disappointing. Well, disappointing from launching concrete, obvious effects, that would really pressure the regime to give up (really needs to be tough on China to do that). But that also soothed markets which have less to worry about if we aren’t ramping up the rhetoric with China. A bit of a catch-22.
Basically, Bessent saying that we’ve put everyone on warning/high alert (and they have some time to change their behavior before we come down with the hammer) seems logical. It will take longer that way, but if the threat of the “hammer” works, then it will have accomplished the mission.
On the other hand, what happened to “Sanctioning a Major Financial Institution” on Friday? Maybe it is taking longer to get the legal side of things right, before implementing the sanctions? Maybe the “guilty party” has come to the table to negotiate a deal favorable to the U.S.? Those would be good outcomes and are plausible. But why make such a “direct statement” and not live up to it? On that topic, why didn’t this press conference happen the prior week, which seemed to be the initial target for launching the Economic Armageddon?
As a whole, the direction of travel on the issue of oil and energy products in the Middle East is heading in the right direction (less clear on nuclear deals and change of regime behavior).
Stories are hitting the tape this weekend about a major deal between the U.S. and Venezuela. We continue to see success in working with Venezuela since Maduro has been captured. Having said that, it is difficult to tell from the details provided so far, what the real impact is with this potential “deal.” If it is as good as the Truth Social posts say it is, that could be very good (primarily in the medium to longer term). But as we discussed last week, in the section Done Means Done, we have seen social media pronouncements, or soundbites (even soundbites from the Oval Office), that don’t always materialize the way they were initially touted.
Would be a great win, and I do think Venezuela can be a hub for processing, refining, and smelting materials that the U.S. needs.
Opportunities Squandered?Since the trade negotiations fell apart (wow, that was only last Friday, that seems even longer ago), there has been a lot of discussion about who caused the deal to break down. Some argue that Carney views it as politically in his interests to not do a deal, even if he could have had a “good” deal. Others discuss last-minute demands on the U.S. side, which seems to fit in with the “art of the deal.” Where this all winds up, who knows.
We are going to lump this into the Opportunities Squandered section, though maybe not in the way you think this is going.
Let’s start with Canada. Let’s start a decade or so ago.
On Friday on Bloomberg TV (during the second segment), I say something that will probably get me in trouble, but once in a while you need to take that risk to get a soundbite across.
I argue that Canada cannot have BOTH a Green Economy and a Real Economy right now. I am not saying that over time you cannot achieve both a robust economy and one that is sustainable for your own nation and the world. I am saying that even if the ultimate end goal skews heavily towards sustainable and green, the priorities in the near term may have to be adjusted. You might never get to the “green” economy if you don’t survive long enough. We argued that the “energy companies of the future are the energy companies of today” during peak “Hopium.” By Hopium, I meant that the vision drove everything and ignored certain realities, that were really needed to turn that vision into reality. I’m not sure I’ve dug myself out of any hole I’ve dug myself into with this attempt at explaining my view, so I’ll just move on.
LNG exports. The U.S. has built a robust business around LNG. Not only is it bringing in revenue for America, and creating jobs, in America and abroad, but you could argue it is helping importers diversify away from LNG imports from less trustworthy, or reliable counterparties.
While there are a myriad of reasons why the U.S. can do better than Canada, and has done better, there is truth to the concept that Canada regulated themselves out of business. Or, more precisely, in this case, regulated themselves out of creating a new business.
This to me, is just another example of why ProSec needs to go global (and is going global).
As we’ve seen with the Strait, the bottlenecks occur primarily around the refined versions of oil. Yes, oil in itself is troublesome, but it is the refined products that are even more important.
Whether Canada listens to this wake-up call (and there are signs that they have been doing it — heck, we even have a tiny blip in the export line from Canada) is yet to be determined. As we’ve highlighted recently, Australia is planning on their first refinery in 60 years!
ProSec is going global. It is in every nation’s interest to ensure that their supply chains for things that are imperative to their existence are as stable, safe, reliable, and resilient as possible.
Having said that, we will discuss two other subjects in this section, even though I’m not sure they are squandered.
It will be interesting to see if I’m correct and ProSec truly moves global, or if countries will remain content to let others do the heavy lifting, even if it risks their economic future.
Bottom LineI continue to like owning “compute” bonds on a yield basis (no rate hedge).
The Treasury bear steepener likely has more room to run, but we did have downward revisions to the prior year’s worth of jobs data. Not as draconian as last year, but another hint that the job market might be something the Fed needs to keep an eye on (especially as I don’t see how hiking helps war-related inflation or compute-build inflation). Will want to be adding to the front end. I remain indifferent on the long end, but suspect the global supply of debt will outweigh what Bessent has announced so far, and ultimately, the Fed will need to implement some form of Operation Twist to really shift the pricing of the long end.
If oil keeps coming down, it will help rates and equities. I remain concerned how much (in either direction) equities are being driven by the semis where the number of leveraged ETFs astounds me (creating mechanical buying and selling, amplifying every move).
I do think even with oil prices coming down, energy companies, globally, should remain a key overweight in portfolios (XLE is up 42% YTD) and global demands to harness and deliver energy are only increasing!
I don’t think I “squandered” the summer, but have to admit it went by a lot faster with a lot more work and angst than I would have hoped for! Enjoy this last week of summer and hope you have great plans for Labor Day weekend! (which is a holiday both in Canada and the U.S. though it is spelt differently).
Tyler Durden Sun, 08/30/2026 - 17:30