The US Climate Prediction Center has warned that the weather phenomenon El Niño, which only recently emerged across the Pacific, could become the most powerful in more than 75 years. This raises the risk of adverse weather conditions across the US, Asia, Australia, and South America. The stronger the weather event becomes, the greater the threat to critical food supply chains, which are already vulnerable to drought, flooding, export restrictions, and rising protectionism.
The CPC, a NOAA/National Weather Service unit that issues official US government climate outlooks, wrote in its report that sea-surface temperatures at least 1C above normal have spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with an 81% chance the event becomes "very strong" and ranks among the largest on record since 1950. Some parts of the Pacific were 2.7C above normal last week.
A negative El Niño Southern Oscillation Index indicates pressure patterns consistent with El Niño, typically associated with weaker Pacific trade winds and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. The SOI is now at levels not seen since 2005.
"Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to typical impacts everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes," the Climate Prediction Center said. El Niño "will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will last through early spring 2027."
Goldman Sachs commodities research analyst Lina Thomas provided further insight into the looming El Niño threat, warning that global agricultural supply is "highly concentrated geographically," leaving crop markets "highly vulnerable to localized weather, geopolitical, or policy shocks."
Thomas warned about weather, geopolitical, and/or policy shocks that may put a bid under food prices:
Global agricultural supply is highly concentrated geographically. Across key crops such as soybeans, corn, rice, sugar, and palm oil, the top three exporting countries account for 60-90% of global trade (Exhibit 1), leaving agricultural markets highly exposed to localized weather, geopolitical, and policy shocks.
Because major agricultural exporters increasingly prioritize domestic food and energy security through export restrictions and biofuel mandates, even modest disruptions—or the fear of disruptions—can trigger policies that reduce exportable supply. In highly concentrated markets, the resulting loss of exportable supply can be much larger than the original production shock, amplifying price volatility. Import-dependent countries may in turn respond by stockpiling and pursuing greater self-sufficiency, often accepting higher domestic production costs in exchange for supply security. While these measures are ultimately aimed at improving resilience locally, they also fragment trade, reduce market liquidity, and increase the sensitivity of prices to future shocks.
We view the risk of protectionist policy responses as a key source of upside risk to crop prices and agricultural volatility, as three near‑term supply concerns could trigger precautionary measures even if the underlying disruptions ultimately prove limited.
Already seeing rising vegetable oil prices...
El Niño coverage:
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Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2026 - 18:50Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is calling on Senator Mitch McConnell to publicly disclose more about his health after the longtime Republican lawmaker remained out of public view for nearly three weeks following his hospitalization in Washington.
In a letter released Wednesday, Beshear said Kentuckians deserve more information about McConnell’s condition and his ability to continue serving in office.
“Kentuckians have grown increasingly concerned about the current state of your health and well-being, and ability to hold office,” Beshear wrote.
McConnell, 84, was hospitalized June 14 and has not released a public statement, photo or video since then.
His aides have provided few details beyond saying last week that he “continues to improve, and is working closely with his staff on Kentucky and Senate matters while the Senate is out of session.”
The lack of public updates has fueled speculation over whether the former Senate Republican leader will return when the Senate reconvenes next week.
Republican leaders sought to tamp down those concerns Tuesday.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota and Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming both said they had spoken with McConnell and described him as alert and engaged in discussions about current events.
President Donald Trump said Wednesday he had not spoken with McConnell since the senator’s hospitalization.
“I have no idea how he’s doing,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One while returning from the NATO summit in Turkey.
McConnell has announced he will retire when his current term expires in January, but questions about his health have intensified interest in what could happen if he is unable to complete the remainder of his term.
Kentucky law no longer allows the governor to appoint a temporary replacement to the U.S. Senate.
Republican lawmakers changed the state’s succession process in 2021 and again in 2024, removing the governor’s appointment authority and instead requiring a special election if a vacancy occurs.
Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2026 - 18:25