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Uranium Awakens From Five-Month Slumber As UBS Warns Market Is "Tightening Structurally"
Bloomberg's continuous front-month uranium futures contract (UXA1 Comdty) briefly surged above $100 a pound in late January, driven by tightening supplies, renewed government support for nuclear power, and rising electricity demand from the AI infrastructure boom.
Uranium futures then retreated and remained range-bound between $84 and $87 for five months. But momentum has returned in August, with prices approaching $89 a pound, the highest level since early February.
The ongoing theme is that years of underinvestment have limited mine supply growth despite rising reactor demand. New uranium projects can take a decade to develop, leaving producers unable to respond quickly to higher prices. Output is also concentrated among a handful of miners, such as Cameco.
Goldman analysts have routinely pointed back to these charts, which show that the uranium market has entered a deficit and that the gap will only widen as new reactor demand comes online in the years ahead.
China is firmly leading the global expansion and is expected to become the world's largest nuclear power market by the end of the decade.
UBS analyst George Eadie noted earlier this month, "Continued strength in term pricing and signs of accelerating utility procurement offer further evidence that the uranium market is tightening structurally."
Regular readers know that nuclear power sits at the intersection of several of our highest-conviction themes: powering up America, reindustrializing the nation, and meeting the massive new electricity demands of the AI buildout.
Related:
- Nano Nuclear Energy Signs Commercial Framework With Tillman To Enable Nuclear Power For Data Centers
As hyperscalers accelerate data-center construction, electricity availability is emerging as a critical bottleneck. Nuclear is the only scalable, low-carbon energy source capable of delivering reliable, around-the-clock baseload power, turning the nuclear renaissance into a theme that will last for years to come.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 05:45The surprising way GLP-1s could be slimming down violent crime in America
Details Of Iran's First Known Successful Cyberattack Against A UK Energy Facility
Iranian hackers shut down a British power plant for four days in an unprecedented cyber attack, the Sunday Telegraph reported.
According to the newspaper, the incident appears to mark the first time Iran-linked hackers have successfully shut down such a British facility.
AFP: Members of the US Air Force prepare munitions at RAF Fairford in south-west England, March 10, 2026.The incident occurred alongside an alleged series of attacks on US water infrastructure last month, which affected at least 12 states and caused concern in the White House.
The Telegraph said that British officials have refused to disclose which facility was affected, citing security concerns.
A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said that the attack impacted a "small-scale energy generator", posing no "risk to the wider energy system".
No outages were reported following the incident, according to the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), which deals with attacks on critical infrastructure.
The British government subsequently briefed chief executives of power companies and wrote to businesses with advice, direction and next steps.
The attack appears to mark an escalation following the UK's decision to grant the US permission to launch "defensive operations" against Iran from British bases.
In March, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government had granted permission to the US military to use the Royal Air Force base in Fairford and the joint facility on Diego Garcia, for limited operations against Iranian missile facilities that "directly threatened British personnel", regional allies, or sovereign assets.
The authorization was subsequently expanded, allowing the US to launch strikes against active Iranian missile infrastructure targeting commercial oil shipping channels in the Strait of Hormuz.
In June, an Iran-linked hacker-activist group, Handala, claimed responsibility for a cyber intrusion targeting water facilities in California, saying the action was carried out in retaliation for alleged US strikes on water infrastructure in southern Iran.
The group said it had obtained data from the systems and described the breach as a warning to Washington.
In a statement, Handala said it had the capability to disrupt water supplies but "stopped short of actually cutting off water to American cities", citing a different ethical code than its adversaries.
The group also said it had published five gigabytes of data as evidence of the intrusion.
In April, the group said it obtained at least 19,000 sensitive files after targeting the personal phone of former Israeli army chief of staff, Herzi Halevi.
"All your top-secret facilities, crisis rooms, maps, and even the tiniest details of your command centers have long been like an open book to us," the group said in a statement posted on its website.
BREAKING: Iran-linked hackers reportedly shut down a small UK power facility for four days in an unprecedented cyberattack, according to The Telegraph.
The incident is believed to be the first known successful cyberattack of its kind against a UK energy facility. It reportedly… pic.twitter.com/srUcgc5QsZ
The files, some of which were seen by Middle East Eye, showed Halevi meeting with Arab officials.
In one undated photo taken in Qatar, Halevi could be seen attending a meeting with former US Central Command (Centcom) chief Michael Kurilla.
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Goldman Sounds Alarm: Europe May Need €100 NatGas Shock To Refill Winter Storage
We have warned that Europe is approaching a twin energy crisis, with the Northern Hemisphere winter now just three months away.
Dutch front-month gas futures, Europe's benchmark contract, surged Monday morning to 67 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest level since early 2023.
Goldman Sachs commodities expert Samantha Dart warns that EU NatGas prices may need to more than double from her base-case forecast if LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained.
Dart said reduced Qatari LNG loadings have forced Europe to compete more aggressively with Asia for available cargoes.
"We have argued that, in the absence of an improvement in LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) (Exhibit 1), European gas prices (TTF) would need to rise to discourage Asia LNG demand, thereby freeing incremental cargoes to be sent to Europe to help manage European gas storage levels," she said.
Dart warned that the most alarming scenario would emerge if Persian Gulf energy exports recovered only gradually through 2027. Under that scenario, she estimates December 2026 TTF may need to exceed 100 euros per megawatt-hour, more than double the previous 50-euro base case, while Asian JKM prices could approach $35 per million British thermal units.
She noted, "However, because LNG prices have only been this high once, during the 2022 European energy crisis, our conviction in the scale of demand response at such price levels is low, and we would see it more as a price-discovery process."
Dart also pointed out that there "hasn't been enough yet to steady European gas storage injections, with Aug storage injections thus far widening the miss relative to our expectations."
Current NatGas storage levels for the energy-stricken continent stand at just 61.68%, well below the 15-year seasonal level of 72.5%.
The conflict in the Gulf area has severely constrained LNG flows to Europe, but it is not just the gas market that is constrained. The products market is also under pressure, as evidenced by the worsening diesel crisis.
On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held a press conference to announce the "single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary."
There was good news over the weekend, as the newly opened, US military-supervised shipping corridor off Oman saw a 400% surge in commercial transits, raising further questions about whether Tehran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz has eroded. TotalEnergies' CEO was quoted early Monday as saying crude is moving through the critical waterway "very quietly."
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 04:15Nashville HS student shot dead after attending football game as Clay Travis triples reward money to help catch killer
Norway Takes Oilfield Climate Battle To Supreme Court
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com,
The Norwegian government is asking the country’s Supreme Court to overturn lower-court rulings that invalidated the development permits of three new oilfields in Norway’s North Sea.
The case was brought to court three years ago by environmental organizations Greenpeace Nordic and Nature og Ungdom (Nature & Youth). In 2023, the campaigners challenged three administrative decisions of the Norwegian Energy Ministry, which had approved the plan for the development and operation of the oil and gas fields of Breidablikk, Yggdrasil, and Tyrving in the North Sea.
Breidablikk, operated by Equinor, and Yggdrasil, developed and operated by Aker BP, are already producing oil and gas. Tyrving, another Aker BP development, is expected to start up later this year.
The campaigners argued that the environmental assessments and reviews by the Norwegian authorities granted the development and operation licenses without considering the Scope 3 emissions of the customers’ burning of the oil and gas produced at these fields.
In November 2025, the Norwegian government lost an appeal to have the invalidated licenses overturned. However, the court of appeal allowed production at the two producing fields to continue and gave the state of Norway six months to rectify the shortcomings in the assessment of the plans for field development.
“The state will argue that the additional assessments of foreign emissions now clearly satisfy all the requirements," the Office of the Attorney General said, as carried by Reuters, as the Supreme Court begins hearings on the case on Monday.
The Supreme Court will hear arguments for four days until August 27, with the ruling expected later this year.
The Norwegian government is fighting for the new oilfields as it strongly supports the country’s oil and gas industry, a major contributor to GDP and jobs, as well as to the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund with $2.3 trillion in assets.
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Iran Unveils Huge New Gas Discovery Amid US Economic Pressure
Iran announced a huge new gas discovery in the southern province of Fars, with the oil ministry reporting estimates of 7.5 trillion cubic feet of gas, of which 73% is recoverable, or 5.7 trillion cu ft, OilPrice reported.
Iran has the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, after Russia.
“This amount of gas is equivalent to one block of South Pars, which can supply gas for 15 years,” oil minister Mohsen Paknejad said, as quoted by Iranian media. “This volume of gas has the special characteristic of being sweet, which reduces both development and operating costs,” Paknejad also said.
The Iranian oil ministry also said over the weekend that repairs at the South Pars gas field continue, with 70% of operations now restored. The field was damaged by U.S. and Israeli strikes in the early days of the war. It is the world’s largest gas field, shared by Iran and Qatar, which calls it the North Field and which grew into a top-three world liquefied natural gas exporter thanks to the field’s reserves.
However, restoring 100% of operations at South Pars would take at least three years, the chief executive of the company operating the field told SHANA news agency. He added that “intensive planning and alternative execution methods are being used to bring some trains back online by the end of the year and complete the overall reconstruction within two years.”
The news of the new Iranian discovery comes as the United States threatened to slap more sanctions on Tehran. President Trump called them “draconian”, saying “Well, we have things that we could sanction. We have very draconian sanctions, and we'll see what happens.”
Separately, in an op-ed for the Financial Times, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened Iran with “an economic D-Day — the single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary.” No details about the nature of the sanctions were revealed.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 02:45