Upward momentum in agricultural prices, as tracked by the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, should be ringing inflationary alarm bells. The breakout comes just one week after JPMorgan analyst Nora Szentivanyi warned that the next global food crisis could materialize as early as next year.
Multiple shocks are converging all at once across the global food complex, including continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, rising El Niño risks, and adverse weather across the US agricultural belt.
This note focuses on another emerging chokepoint: Europe's breadbasket, where intensifying attacks in the Russia-Ukraine war have shuttered critical Black Sea grain export terminals.
Reuters reports that global wheat importers are preparing for tighter supplies and higher prices as tit-for-tat attacks on Black Sea ports and bulk carriers continue to disrupt shipments during the region's peak export season.
Those attacks have shuttered grain terminals and forced shippers to delay or cancel dozens of cargoes. Ukraine reported 35 attacks on vessels in port, 22 at sea, and 67 against port facilities in July, compared with just 14 such incidents during all of 2025.
Ukraine has damaged Russia’s grain export terminals in an attack on the Novorossiysk port, while Russia has struck grain infrastructure in Ukraine's Odesa region. Tit-for-tat attacks between the world’s major grain exporters threatens food security in import-dependent countries. pic.twitter.com/YxwIQApNYI
— Shogri (@shogri786) August 14, 2026Asian processors booked between 2 million and 2.5 million tons of Black Sea wheat for delivery from July through September, representing about 30% to 50% of regional import demand, according to Singapore-based traders. Traders are fretting over some grain shipments won't arrive in time because of the widespread disruptions.
At the importer level, Egypt and Indonesia are among some of the top countries exposed to Black Sea shipments. Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, sourced more than 82% of its first-half imports from Russia and Ukraine. Indonesia contracted for roughly 600,000 tons from suppliers in the region for delivery in July to September.
One Singapore-based trader who sells Black Sea wheat to millers in Asia told the outlet, "The cargoes were due to start arriving from mid-August, but many ships could not go in to load. Buyers are thinking about replacing some of these cargoes with other origins, such as Australia, North America and Argentina."
Maxence Devillers, a grain analyst at Argus Media, said buyers facing delayed or entirely canceled shipments from the region "will have to find other solutions by the end of the month."
🌾 #Ukraine and #Russia dropping out of the market could trigger a new global #grain #crisis
Further escalation of attacks on Ukraine’s and Russia’s port and grain logistics could sharply reduce Black Sea supplies.
Read more 👉https://t.co/g4GuYe7TZA pic.twitter.com/yHgfFSnk0G
Separately, Bloomberg pointed out that Russian attacks on Odesa have nearly halted Ukraine's grain exports this peak harvest season. Total grain shipments from Ukraine have amounted to about 500,000 tons since the start of August, equivalent to roughly 20% of the country's potential exports. The Greater Odesa ports normally handle about 90% of Ukraine's grain shipments.
The escalating Black Sea attacks across Europe's breadbasket have pushed Chicago wheat futures to a two-year high.
A broader gauge of agricultural commodities, the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, is also breaking out, signaling real-time inflationary pressure building at the raw-material level of the food system.
A must-read: "Won't Be Short-Lived": JPMorgan Warns Next Global Food Crisis Could Erupt Next Year
Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 15:20CNN political contributor and nationally syndicated radio host Scott Jennings just dropped a full-throated defense of Natalie Harp after reports surfaced that the conservative commentator is angling to replace outgoing White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, according to Politico's Playbook.
"I just don't think that's what you sign up for when you're someone like Natalie Harp, who never put her name on a ballot. She's not the White House press secretary. She's not a household name, and I just find it to be appalling," Jennings told Playbook. "Somebody needs to defend her honor."
Harp, the 35-year-old special assistant to President Donald Trump, has spent years flying under the radar as one of the president's most constant aides. Insiders call her the "human printer" because she packs a portable printer everywhere, churning out hard copies of news articles, social-media posts and anything else Trump wants to see on paper, according to the anti-Trump publication The Bulwark.
That low profile shattered this week when Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) name-dropped her at a Georgia campaign rally, accusing the Trump of preferring to "build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the Emir of Qatar" rather than fully attend to his official duties.
Harp first caught Trump's eye in 2019 when she publicly credited his Right to Try legislation with opening the door to experimental treatment for bone cancer, the New York Times reports.
Meanwhile, no decision was made and no offer extended an offer to Jennings to take the podium. A report from NOTUS on Wednesday paraphrased Trump as saying he is "not quite sold" on Jennings for the role. The report did note, though, that the president would prefer a man to succeed the outgoing Leavitt.
Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 15:00Michael Cohen - Donald Trump's former 'fixer' who once vowed to take a bullet for him, only to flip after he was raided by the FBI in 2018 in the Stormy Daniels hush-money probe - says that Trump has agreed to appear on his New York City-area radio show this week.
Cohen wrote on X on Wednesday to confirm that Trump would appear on “the radio show I’m hosting tomorrow night at 6pm and the rest on my Sunday” show on 770 WABC Radio.
It’s not for the podcast…it’s the radio show I’m hosting tomorrow night at 6pm and the rest on my Sunday 5pm est radio show on 77WABC radio called “When You Know…You Know”. https://t.co/ap68IAlrcJ
— Michael Cohen (@MichaelCohen212) August 19, 2026Cohen told CBS that this will be "the first public conversation between the president and myself in eight years," adding "You know, there have been private conversations that have, of course, been reported. But this is the first public conversation."
As the Epoch Times notes further, Cohen also linked to a Substack article that served as a recollection of the public feud the two had, which included Cohen testifying against Trump in his New York City criminal trial in 2024. Cohen served as one of the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office’s star witnesses, alleging the president was intensely involved in a plan to pay off a former adult film actress during his 2016 campaign.
“Eight years of silence. Hundreds of thousands of headlines. Fifteen years of history fractured in an instant, and somehow, against almost every expectation, here we are. Since yesterday’s announcement broke, my inbox has once again become a digital battlefield. It has been flooded with hatred, anger, disbelief, and some of the most spectacularly vicious things imaginable,” Cohen wrote.
He later wrote that “apparently, quite a few are ready to personally escort me to the gates of hell for daring to share a microphone with Donald Trump again.”
Speaking to Politico on Wednesday, Cohen answered a question about whether he would seek a presidential pardon.
Cohen in 2018 was sentenced to three years in federal prison after pleading guilty to campaign finance violations, tax evasion, bank fraud, and lying to Congress. He completed his sentence and supervision requirements in November 2021.
“We’ll see,” he said in response. “Will I make that request down the road? I don’t know. Maybe maybe not.”
Referring to the upcoming interview, Cohen told the outlet that listeners will be “interested to hear two individuals that were friends for a decade and a half who have not publicly spoken in eight years” talk about their past.
Trump, who was convicted in a jury trial on 34 counts of falsifying business records, denied the charges against him and pleaded not guilty. He has long said that the Manhattan district attorney’s case and cases that were brought against him in Georgia, Washington, and Florida were a “political witch hunt.”
The judge who oversaw the case, Juan Merchan, sentenced Trump to an unconditional discharge in January 2025, coming about two months after Trump won reelection.
In his first term, Trump often criticized Cohen in response to claims his former lawyer made about him, writing on X in 2018: “If anyone is looking for a good lawyer, I would strongly suggest that you don’t retain the services of Michael Cohen!” Cohen would often appear on then-MSNBC and CNN to criticize the first Trump term.
Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 14:40