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US May Halve Canada Metals Tariffs As Friday Deal Deadline Looms
Summary:
- US-Canada Trade Deal Would Cut Metals Tariffs to 25%: Report
- Trump: "It's good for everybody, but our farmers are going to be thrilled. Our manufacturers are going to be thrilled."
- Trump Pauses 50% Canada Tariffs At 11th Hour, Declares "We Have A Deal"
Sources told Bloomberg that a tentative trade deal would cut US tariffs on certain Canadian steel and aluminum exports to 25% from 50%.
The report continued:
The details have yet to be finalized and are not expected to apply across the board. Different rates could apply to some derivative products that include those metals, said some of the people, who requested anonymity to discuss terms of the agreement before it is announced.
US and Canadian trade advisers continued negotiations Wednesday, less than 24 hours after President Donald Trump paused planned 50% tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods for three days.
The metals concessions could help the two countries reach a broader agreement before the pause expires Friday.
President Trump earlier nodded to US concessions in the trade talks.
🚨 BOOM: President Trump just confirmed he's reached a deal with CANADA, the tariffs are paused
Keystone XL pipeline is also set to be REVIVED 👏🏻
"We've come to a deal with Canada. As you know, the 50% tariffs across the board were going on against Canada today, and they called…
"Got to give something, and we're doing certain things. We're paying a high number. We're reducing it a little bit," Trump told reporters. "It's good for everybody, but our farmers are going to be thrilled. Our manufacturers are going to be thrilled."
Trump Pauses 50% Canada Tariffs At 11th Hour, Declares "We Have A Deal"The Canadian dollar climbed against most of its Group-of-10 peers after President Trump delayed 50% tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods for three days, claiming on Truth Social that a trade deal was pending. The last-minute reprieve will ease trade tensions in North America.
"I have paused the 50% Tariffs against Canada, that were scheduled to kick in tomorrow morning for a three day period, based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL! The great Keystone XL Pipeline, long ago killed by Sleepy Joe Biden, may be awoken from the grave!" Trump wrote on Truth Social late Tuesday night.
The United States Trade Representative wrote on X, "The deal will include comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers, along with our Canadian partners."
Congratulations Mr. President. The deal will include comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers, along with our Canadian… https://t.co/YSQ4rNmKAv
— United States Trade Representative (@USTradeRep) August 19, 2026A White House proclamation explained that the tariffs were suspended after Canada committed to removing discriminatory treatment across US automobiles, dairy products, and alcohol.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney released a statement offering a more cautious view and stopped short of confirming that a final deal had been reached.
"Substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done," Carney said in the statement. "While we continue this work, Canada remains focused on building a stronger, more independent, and more competitive economy at home."
Analysts at Jefferies added more color:
Trump says U.S., Canada have trade deal, pauses new tariffs for three days Globe and Mail reported that U.S. President Donald Trump announced a tentative trade deal with Canada and paused planned 50% tariffs for three days, less than two hours before they were due to take effect.
Trump said the agreement remains subject to final documentation and did not disclose specific terms or confirm whether the tariffs would be permanently withdrawn.
The announcement followed intense negotiations between Canadian and U.S. officials, including multiple discussions between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump.
Sources indicated negotiators believed they had developed a proposal capable of resolving the impasse, but the final decision rested with political leaders. The threatened tariffs, under Section 338, would have applied to about US$20B of Canadian exports including electronics, dairy, alcohol and wood products. Talks also covered existing Section 232 tariffs on autos, metals and forest products.
Reports suggest the U.S. may reduce, but not fully remove, some tariffs in exchange for Canadian concessions such as lifting provincial bans on U.S. alcohol and removing certain countertariffs.
Key sticking points remained auto and lumber tariffs, with Canada seeking exemptions for North American auto content and provinces demanding meaningful lumber relief.
The outcome represents a significant political test for Carney, who has balanced pressure to protect Canadian interests with business demands for greater trade stability.
Scotiabank's Derek Holt provided his first take:
Great, there's a possible deal. What's in the deal? Dunno. Do I trust there is a deal because Trump said so? Not really. Do markets trust there is a deal? Not so much, as CAD only appreciated by about a quarter cent since Trump's social media post last night, CGBs are flat, and so are TSX futures. All he did was to go TACO and postpone the 50% tariffs for three days just 1¾ hours before they were to have been applied against $20 billion of imports from Canada sans CUSMA exemption. Canada's retaliation is similarly postponed. That's a positive for now, since otherwise everything would have skidded off into the ditch, but the rest is still uncertain.
What's in the deal? Haven't a clue. Is it good for both Canada and the US? Dunno. Trump's post merely says the two countries have a deal while intimating that the Keystone XL pipeline is back on. We'll see about that, given a guarded industry toward the pipeline that has moved on given the wild unpredictability of successive US administrations, the long project timelines and the varied competing interests.
We also have this post from the USTR that claims "comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers, along with our Canadian partners." We'll be the judge of that, not the White House.
Canadian PM Carney's post was much more measured. It noted that "substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done." On that count, massive shout-outs to the Canadian team for working so tirelessly and on something so mindless as zero-sum beggar-thy-neighbour trade policies out of the US that divert precious management time by leaders and businesses away from more meaningful pursuits. You've served your country well so far.
And so we need details. What's in the agreement, what are the enforcement mechanisms, what are the timelines for implementation, and of course, how exactly comprehensive is this? Is it a meaningfully comprehensive CUSMA extension, or just the opening salvo? How much did PM Carney give away from a salability standpoint at home? The provinces will need to be briefed and their reactions and cooperation will be important. And is Trump's signature going to actually mean anything on this 'deal' given his pattern of not honouring much of what he commits to doing?
Throughout all of this I have stuck to a cautious optimist line that Canada would get a trade deal before the midterms or before the new US Congress convenes in January. The odds of this happening just went up. That has been part of a macro narrative for improved growth and modest tightening by the Bank of Canada as the case for last Fall's insurance cuts to persist would be removed at a minimum. I hope that's true, but I'll jump on the 'Let's Make a Deal' stage when I see something meaningful. Until then, post on to your heart's content, we want details!!
If a deal that extends CUSMA and lowers uncertainty in a meaningful way were to be achieved, then it would be positive for Canadian economic growth and negligible for US growth. It would buoy market and business sentiment toward Canada. It could put at ease consumer worries.
And be wary toward the possible confirmation bias in gloomier quarters. I wouldn't want talk to see some of the research gloomsters who were adopting a negative stance on trade and how damaging it could be to Canada's economy and markets while making rate cuts more likely then turn around and say a deal doesn't mean much. Nothing to see here. Don't want to see it because it goes against all of their other views that deliberately excluded the cautious optimists. #accountability. The BoC wouldn't dismiss a deal; amid multiple uncertainties, removing or materially dropping trade uncertainty would be another step toward modest tightening.
Trump's announcement signals possible progress ahead of the review of the North American trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico. The US and Canada traded $900 billion in goods and services last year.
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Prosecutors In Charlie Kirk Slaying Case Say Evidence Supports Death Penalty
Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,
Prosecutors on Aug. 18 urged a Utah judge to uphold all charges, including one carrying a potential death sentence, in the case against Charlie Kirk’s accused killer.
In their 19-page filing in Utah County’s Fourth District Court, prosecutors rebutted an Aug. 11 memo from lawyers representing the defendant, Tyler James Robinson, 23.
Robinson’s defense team had argued that evidence presented during a preliminary hearing last month failed to support the death penalty. They said that the evidence also did not establish “probable cause”—a reasonable belief that their client committed the alleged offenses. Under Utah law, that standard must be met for the case to proceed to trial.
Prosecutors counter-argued that defense lawyers ignored important facts damning to their client while misconstruing legal standards to favor him.
Further, prosecutors said evidence clearly shows that others besides Kirk were at great risk of being killed—an “aggravating” circumstance that supports a death-penalty-level charge, they argued.
A gunman, alleged to be Robinson, fatally shot Kirk in the neck on Sept. 10, 2025, as he spoke to a crowd of about 3,000 people in a courtyard at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Some attendees were “in the line of fire,” while other people were near Kirk, putting them in the “zone of danger,” prosecutors said.
Those basic facts show that other people’s lives were imperiled, they argued.
Defense lawyers had said, “The State has failed to show that the actual conduct created a ‘high probability’ that someone other than Mr. Kirk would be killed.”
However, prosecutors pointed out that defense lawyers made no challenge to evidence showing that Robinson “was the person who crawled to the sniper’s perch ... fired the fatal shot ... hid the rifle in a wooded area, got rid of some of the clothing he was wearing, and told his roommate to delete their texts about the shooting.”
Robinson is accused of aggravated murder, a capital offense, in the highly publicized assassination case.
Kirk was a 31-year-old father of two who founded Turning Point USA, a conservative youth political movement that spread internationally.
Prosecutors allege that Robinson targeted Kirk because he opposed Kirk’s political and religious stances.
The defendant also faces six other charges: two counts of obstructing justice, two counts of witness tampering, and a count each of causing serious bodily harm by discharging a firearm and committing violence in the presence of a child.
The next step in the case is set for Sept. 1, when the lawyers will make oral arguments to Judge Tony Graf Jr. in his courtroom in Provo, Utah.
Graf is tasked with deciding whether prosecutors provided sufficient evidence of probable cause.
In a July 28 court filing, prosecutors told the judge that a four-day preliminary hearing earlier that month produced clear-cut evidence against Robinson.
“This is likely as straight-forward a bind-over decision as this Court will ever see,” they wrote, adding: “This isn’t a close case. The State presented more than enough evidence to support a probable cause finding on all seven charges.”
Prosecutors said that the defendant admitted to “several friends, including his roommate and romantic partner, that he assassinated Charlie Kirk.”
Robinson surrendered to police following those alleged admissions, and DNA evidence links him to gun parts and other items found near the shooting site, in addition to eyewitness testimony and surveillance, they pointed out.
It is unclear whether Graf will rule immediately after the Sept. 1 hearing. Attorneys representing Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk, requested that Graf issue his decision no later than that date.
If Graf finds probable cause, he must “bind over” the case for trial; otherwise, the judge is required to dismiss the charges—although prosecutors could resubmit the case.
Felony criminal cases may bypass a preliminary hearing when prosecutors present evidence directly to a grand jury and secure an indictment.
However, Robinson was charged under a prosecutor’s “information.” That requires prosecutors to present evidence at a preliminary hearing and obtain a judge’s probable-cause ruling unless the defendant waives that right.
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Ugly, Tailing 20Y Auction Prices At 2nd Highest Yield On Record; Would Have Been Highest If Bessent Hadn't Panicked
After today's stunning announcement by the Treasury it was doubling the size of long-end buyback operations to boost liquidity in the space, many were closely watching today's 20Y auction - which is viewed as the proximal catalyst to trigger Bessent's panic as it was going to price at the highest yield in the history of the 20Y auction - to see how much demand there was for this key paper. As it turns out: not a whole lot.
The auction priced at a high yield of 5.204%, up materially from 5.163% a month ago, and like in July today's auction tailed the When Issued by 0.5bps which is the first red light: despite today's massive intervention by the Treasury, demand was still at best lackluster.
But looking closer at today's 20Y yield moves, we can see why Bessent panicked: had he done nothing, today's high yield would have been the highest in 20Y history... and following the recent ugly 30Y auction, this is not what the bond market would have wanted to see. So to make sure the August 2026 auction priced inside the record high set in October 2023 with a 5.245% yielding auction, Bessent announced the buyback boost, which was enough to send 20Y yields 8bps lower, or enough to make today's auction yield the second highest on record.
The bid to cover of today's 20Y auction was 2.53, down from 2.64 in July and down sharply from 2.75% in June. It was also the lowest since February and one of the lowest on record.
The internals were also a mess: foreign buyers (Indirects) were awarded just 62.9%, down sharply from 69.1% and the lowest since February (also well below the recent average of 66.7%). And with Directs taking 24.6% of the auction, or the highest since February (oddly enough, Directs now surge whenever Indirects tumble and vice verse, almost as if they have a direct mandate from the Treasury), Dealers were left holding 12.5%, down from 14.7% but in line with the recent average of 11.5%.
Overall, this was a very lousy 20Y auction, but it could have been much worse had the Treasury not stepped in this morning. The flip side, of course, is that even with the Treasury's intervention, this was a barely passable auction and suggests that just like Bessent's yentervention, the half-life of his latest attempt to stabilize the bond market will be measured in weeks if not days.
Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 13:40