Zero Rss

Robocalls Are Increasing In US As Report Lists Worst-Impacted Area Codes

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

A new report found that Americans are continuing to get bombarded by robocalls, with more than 4 billion recorded in July, according to blocking service YouMail.

A smartphone displays the icons of some of the main artificial intelligence based apps, including Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, Perplexity, DeepSeek, and ChatGPT, in Saint-Mande, France, on July 15, 2026. Martin Lelievre/AFP via Getty Images

There were 4.3 billion robocalls received across the United States last month, said YouMail in a news release.

On average, July saw 139.3 million robocalls per day and 1,612 robocalls per second, which is slightly lower than the 141.8 million robocalls per day, and 1,642 calls per second recorded in June.

Unwanted robocalls also increased by nearly 6 percent in July 2026 as consumers received more than 2.1 billion such calls that month, it said.

According to the report, about 51 percent of robocalls were likely wanted, and 49 percent were likely unwanted.

"Monthly robocall volumes have been slowly creeping upward, and we're more than 15 percent above the lowest levels we saw last October," said YouMail CEO Alex Quilici in a statement, noting "the dangers of scam calls" despite robocall activity being "much lower than historic levels."

YouMail said that the "most problematic robocall campaigns" in July revolved around pre-approved loan officers that claim to inform a consumer that they have qualified for a loan with relatively low monthly payments.

"Hi, this is Cornelius about your recent personal loan inquiry," said an example of a robocall on loans, provided by the company.

"I'm happy to share that you've qualified for up to $45,000 with monthly payments around $575. I want to take a few minutes to go through the details with you and answer any questions before we get the paperwork started."

That campaign, YouMail said, originated from thousands of separate phone numbers and used a "small set of recurring caller names" with different loan amounts, payment terms, and contact numbers.

More than 40 million calls were generated from the campaign last month, according to YouMail.

Consumers, meanwhile, have reported the loan-related calls as likely spam and said they never asked about or applied for a loan.

According to YouMail, area codes in the United States that saw the largest increases in robocalls in July were: area code 346 in Houston, Texas; area code 470 in Atlanta, Georgia; area code 229 in Albany, Georgia; area code 765 in Indianapolis, Indiana; area code 901 in Memphis, Tennessee; area code 812 in Evansville, Indiana; area code 720 in Denver, Colorado; area code 870 in Jonesboro, Arkansas; area code 931 in Clarksville, Tennessee; and area code 254 in Killeen, Texas.

"As with similar campaigns, this appears to be, at a minimum, illegal telemarketing at scale," the company said. "Based on consumer reports and the behavior of the calls, it's likely to be a scam."

Earlier this month, a bill to reduce robocalls passed in the Senate that cracks down on calls originating from outside the United States.

"As foreign robocallers step up their efforts to exploit and prey on vulnerable people, we need to do more to combat this unlawful practice and protect Americans from scams," said Sen. Peter Welch (D-Va.) in a statement.

Consumers can opt into the National Do Not Call Registry, a federal government database that lists phone numbers of people who have requested that telemarketers not contact them.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 17:40

US Attorney Makes Rare Move By Convening Special Grand Jury in Washington

D.C. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro has taken the rare step of convening a 'special' grand jury in Washington, according to the Washington Post.

US Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro walks outside the White House, September 2, in Washington. Mark Schiefelbein/AP

It will be overseen by Steven Vandervelden, a key Pirro lieutenant, the Post said. Vandervelden has run some of the office's most contentious investigations - including the failed probe of then-Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and an inquiry into whether D.C. police tampered with their own crime statistics.

Unlike a regular grand jury, a special grand jury can issue a potentially scathing report on the target of an investigation even when prosecutors ultimately decide there isn't enough evidence to bring charges.

"They are very unusual," said Niki Kuckes, a professor at Roger Williams University. "Sometimes they can issue a report, which a regular grand jury can't do."

"It's a very protective scheme. A majority of the grand jurors have to decide to issue the report," Kuckes added. "And a special grand jury has to be set up to investigate some criminal wrongdoing. You can't just have one to issue a report."

The Post notes:

A special grand jury has several unique characteristics. The 23 members focus only on a single case - or a string of cases that prosecutors present as related - instead of juggling a variety of matters like most grand juries. And a special grand jury's ability to issue a report at the end of an investigation sets it apart.

That report can name specific individuals even if prosecutors do not find enough evidence to bring the people to trial, as long as the report shows that there is a "preponderance of evidence" of wrongdoing. That is a significantly lower standard than the "guilt beyond a reasonable doubt" that is needed to convict someone.

What this one is investigating is not known. Legal experts told the Post there is no known recent precedent for a special grand jury in Washington; they are typically reserved for large jurisdictions where organized crime is presumed, or for major matters like Georgia's 2020 election interference case and the federal Enron probe.

The disclosure lands in the middle of an open feud between Pirro and the president who appointed her.

On July 31, Pirro's office moved to drop felony vandalism charges against former Olympic canoeist David Hearn, one of four defendants accused in connection with damage to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. Her filing directly contradicted Trump's repeated claim that the pool was vandalized, concluding the damage resulted from a botched installation rushed to completion ahead of the America 250 celebrations. Pirro said her prosecutors had been misled by the Interior Department.

Trump unloaded from the Oval Office on Aug. 3. "The judge was extremely unfriendly to Jeanine, and frankly, I think she choked because the judge was really vicious," he told reporters. "And I guess she choked. I don't know what the hell happened." Minutes later he added that Pirro had "folded like an umbrella."

Judge Todd Edelman formally dismissed the case on Aug. 6. The following day, Trump demanded Pirro "revisit her hastily made decision," posting photos he said showed knife cuts in the pool's liner.

Asked whether Pirro would keep her job, Trump said he had not "made a determination yet."

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 17:20

WHO Defends Childhood Vaccination Schedules After Trump Order

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The World Health Organization (WHO) on Aug. 11 defended its immunization guidelines after President Donald Trump issued an order to change the childhood vaccination schedule to space out the shots.

A health worker prepares a vaccine in Texas in a file image. Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images

On Aug. 10, Trump signed an order to recommend administering the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine in three shots during separate visits. The combined MMR shot is commonly given to children, and some states mandate the vaccine for attendance at day care, schools, and summer camps.

Tarik Jasarevic, a spokesperson for the United Nations' health body, referred to the Trump administration's changes during a press briefing on Tuesday, saying that WHO's vaccine recommendations are "based on years of research across the world on how the immune system develops, when a person is most susceptible for a disease and how to keep protection strong."

"This is the advice we give to all countries, and we hope that all countries will use this best scientific evidence that we have," Jasarevic said, adding, "we have to always stress that the science does evolve to make their immunization programs for their citizens."

During Monday's signing event, Trump also called for only 11 key vaccines, and argued that spreading out the shots was critical for a child's health. Children should receive their shots in one year with five separate visits, he added. Previously, the Department of Health and Human Services had recommended 17 vaccines, which was revised down to 11 by the agency earlier this year.

Kush Desai, a Trump spokesperson, told media outlets on Aug. 10 that the president is "one of countless parents who have voiced questions and concerns about the combined MMR vaccine" and said that with the change, parents are provided "more options on timing and frequency for their children" and that this would increase vaccine uptake.

In January, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended vaccines for measles, mumps, rubella, polio, pertussis (whooping cough), tetanus, diphtheria, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), pneumococcal disease, human papillomavirus (HPV), and varicella (chickenpox).

When the vaccine total was revised, several groups, including the American College of Physicians, sharply criticized the Trump administration's decision.

"Abandoning the U.S. evidence-based process is a dangerous and potentially deadly decision for Americans," said Jason M. Goldman, MD, the head of the American College of Physicians, in a Jan. 5 statement. "The evidence is clear that vaccines prevent deaths, hospitalizations, and spread of disease."

In explaining the decision for Monday's order, which comes as students across the United States will soon be returning to classrooms, Trump wrote that the administration is committed to ensuring that Americans can receive "the best scientifically supported medical advice in the world, as well as to protecting religious liberty and parental authority."

"I am taking further action to reaffirm that it is the policy of the United States that the core childhood vaccine recommendations should be aligned with scientific evidence and best practices from peer, developed countries while preserving access to vaccines currently available to Americans," he said.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Aug. 11.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 17:00

Two Leftist Fantasies That Collide With Reality

Authored by Kathleen Dynan via AmericanThinker.com,

Many want to live with fantasies that contradict facts as their reality.

But facts can’t be ignored, and we are not required to accept their fantasies as our truth and reality.

Here are two such fantasies: that a man can become a woman or vice versa, and that Marxism is good for citizens of the country.

Let us examine biology and medical science facts to disprove the first fantasy.

Sex chromosomes are packages of DNA found inside most of our approximately 30 trillion cells that have a nucleus. There are two different kinds of these chromosomes, X and Y. When an egg is fertilized, the egg itself always contributes an X chromosome, while sperm can contribute either an X or a Y. Sex chromosomes are the genetic elements that define a person’s biological sex. Females have XX and males have XY chromosomes. Chromosomes themselves are made up of proteins and DNA that carry our genetic information from cell to cell. In addition to biological gender and the resulting reproductive systems, they determine other physical traits, e.g., eye color.

The reproductive systems of men and women are distinctly different. The male reproductive system mostly exists outside of the body. The external organs include the penis, scrotum and testicles. Internal organs include the vas deferens, prostate and urethra. The male reproductive system is responsible for sexual function and urination. The female reproductive system is a group of organs that enable reproduction, pregnancy, and childbirth. It also produces female sex hormones, including estrogen and progesterone. The system consists of organs and tissues inside the body and some that are visible outside the body.

Medically, it is not possible to transplant reproductive systems into the opposite sex. Drugs and mutilating surgeries change a person’s appearance, but do not change the biological gender.

To dispel a related fantasy, women are physically weaker than men because of a combination of factors rooted in this biology. Women have: less total muscle mass, different muscle fiber profiles, lower testosterone levels, higher essential body fat, and smaller, lighter bones. These differences are significant. In upper body tasks, women produce roughly 56% of the force men do; in the lower body, that figure rises to about 72%. The average gap is real, measurable, and driven by physiology that diverges sharply at puberty.

So, factual biology shows it is impossible for women to successfully compete against the strength of men in physical tasks and sports.

Now, let us look at history to disprove the second fantasy.

The Democratic Socialists of America is claiming Americans’ lives would be better under Marxism. Both socialism and communism are based on the principles of Marxism. The claim is that both are better for citizens than our form of government, a constitutional republic with an economy based on capitalism. But history shows this false claim is just a desperate attempt to seize control of Americans.

They claim Marxism would provide: a classless society; peace for all; and less labor required, meaning more leisure time. They consider the last the true measure of wealth. Capitalism, not any form of Marxism, delivers leisure time. Below are some results of living that fantasy.

 

Millions more citizens were stripped of all wealth and property, captured, debased and tortured under these governments. If they were able to escape these madmen, citizens fled their homelands.

 

To date, 11 countries have tried socialism. All have failed.

The sole equality for all was the anguish and suffering of citizens. Only the elites running those governments prospered.

The far left is trying to buy control of us by offering the same eight “free programs” they offered in 2019. These include: Universal Child Care; Guaranteed Income; Reparations to Blacks and Illegals; Affordable Housing; Medicare for All; Student Loan Forgiveness; Free Public College; and a Green New Deal. Their desperate attempt to pretend to have programs for all Americans was and is a sick joke. They can’t ever happen.

In 2019, the total world wealth was estimated to be $360.6 trillion; and the United States’ wealth (assets minus liabilities) at about 29% of that total, $106 trillion. The far left was promising to spend an estimated $81.9 trillion for these “freebies.” That was 77% of our wealth on “free stuff.” Common sense and logic said what facts proved, that none of those would materialize. (2019 Credit Suisse Report) Both wealth and costs have increased in the last 7 years, but that total wealth and costs comparison is still viable.

Unlike Marxist governments, American citizens are represented in our government. Do not let that change in the United States. Marxists can’t improve your life, but history shows they will destroy or end it.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 16:20

Tanker Data Contradicts US Claim That Middle East Oil Flows Have Normalized

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Oil flows from the Middle East have normalized, with Sunday traffic alone above pre-conflict averages, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said on Tuesday in a claim that appears not to be backed by ship-tracking data.

On Tuesday, Secretary Wright posted on X that “Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day.”

Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day.

When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly…

— Secretary Chris Wright (@SecretaryWright) August 11, 2026

He went on to add that “When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day.”  

According to the top US energy official, “On Sunday alone, over 20 million barrels left the Arabian gulf region, which is above the pre-conflict average.”

However, analysts and tanker traffic monitoring services cannot fathom how the U.S. Administration has arrived at these numbers, considering that traffic at the Strait of Hormuz is severely constrained, even according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

“We have increased our estimates of Middle East shut-in crude oil production in the coming months compared with our July forecast due to continued severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits, which we assume persist through August,” the EIA said on Tuesday in its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

“It is not possible to reconcile the disparity between what we see and what he is quoting,” Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, told CNN, commenting on Wright’s claim.

Kpler data showed earlier this week that vessel traffic at the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline as last week’s hopes of negotiations of a U.S.-Iran deal began to fade, yet again.  

On Monday, only six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in either direction, down from 11 ships in the latest 10-day average, according to shipping data from Kpler cited by Reuters on Tuesday. The number down to just 1 on Wednesday. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 15:40

Ukraine Defies Vance Warning With Massive Strike On Russia's Key Black Sea Port, Shuttering Grain Terminals

Did President Zelensky and the Ukrainian armed forces not listen to US Vice President JD Vance's warnings and request after all?

On Wednesday a "massive" Ukrainian drone and missile strike was unleashed on Russia's port city of Novorossiysk, which badly damaged grain export terminals at what also constitutes the the last major Russian naval base on the Black Sea.

via Retuers

Three were killed, including an eight-year-old child, and also 24 people were injured in the Wednesday nighttime attack.

Zelensky acknowledged the rocket and underwater drone attack in what he hailed as a "unique operation" to strike the Russian naval base at Novorossiysk.

It seems Zelensky is distinguishing this instance as a hit on a purely 'military target' given he did not mention the grain export terminal aspect to the destruction.

"The occupying fleet and all the infrastructure that supports it will not be safe as long as Russian aggression continues," Zelensky said.

Many Russian assets previously docked at the longtime Russian fleet's home base of Sevastopol were forced to vacate during earlier phases of the war, given the frequent prior targeting of the historic Crimean naval hub. Some ships have even been relocated as far away as the Caspian Sea in order to protect them.

The attack could seriously impact global food supplies, particularly in the African continent.

Reuters has said shutdowns resulted: "Two of Russia's biggest grain terminals at the southern port of Novorossiysk have suspended operations as a result of overnight Ukrainian drone strikes, four industry sources told Reuters on Wednesday."

"Russia is the world's ​largest wheat exporter and most of those exports are shipped via its Black Sea ​ports like Novorossiysk. Russia's main grain lobby group warned last month that Ukrainian ⁠drone attacks could shut down grain exports via the Black Sea in the near future, ​pushing up prices and causing hunger in Africa and the Middle East," the report added.

Novorossiysk is also home to vital oil export ​infrastructure. Kiev has essentially declared open season on Russian oil exports, arguing that proceeds fuel Russia's military machine.

A state of emergency has been declared in Novorossiysk after a Ukrainian drone attack

Due to the rupture of two water mains, the city’s water supply system has been damaged, and water delivery to residents has been restricted.

The Novorossiysk port area is covered in thick… pic.twitter.com/nWpeIfcf5Q

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 12, 2026

We reported earlier that at the urging of Vice President Vance, Ukraine indicated that it has suspended attacks on oil tankers using Novorossiysk. The request was made in late July, but first reported today by the Financial Times, citing Ukrainian officials. 

Vance's plea sprang from the Trump administration's worries that Ukraine's attacks were creating dangerous instability in global fuel markets. There were also concerns that strikes on vessels transporting Kazakhstan crude oil to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal at Novorossiysk were detrimental to American companies. 

So it will be interesting to see if in the wake of this latest Wednesday attack, Washington ramps up the pressure on its Ukrainian ally - or whether such attacks will continue and be met with US silence.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 15:20

AI Hyperscalers Are Pricing Bitcoin Miners Off The Grid. Here's Why Its A Massive Win-Win...

Authored by Nick Ward via BitcoinMagazine.,com,

If you’ve scanned headlines over the last year, you’ve likely seen the prevailing market narrative: Bitcoin miners are abandoning their operations and pivoting to AI data centers, signaling a retreat from proof-of-work.

To casual observers, this looks like a surrender.

Proof that Bitcoin was just a temporary placeholder until a “better” compute workload arrived.

However, if you look through the lens of power infrastructure and thermodynamics, that story gets the reality completely backwards. The migration isn’t a sign of bitcoin weakness; but a long-overdue, structurally bullish rebalancing of global energy pricing.

Here is the underlying reality that the market completely misunderstood.

AI vs. Bitcoin: Why Big Tech and Bitcoin Rigs Need Totally Different Data Centers

The misconception stems from assuming all digital workloads are created equal. In reality, Artificial Intelligence and Bitcoin Mining require completely opposite physical and digital environments:

An AI training cluster is fragile. If a 100-megawatt facility drops power mid-run, millions of dollars of training state are destroyed. It demands high-grade baseload power, ultra-low latency fiber, and 99.999% continuous uptime.

Bitcoin mining, by contrast, is completely indifferent to latency, location, or uptime. ASICs can operate in a remote desert, next to a stranded hydro dam, or on an off-grid flare gas pad. If grid power prices spike, a miner can shut down in seconds without losing data or damaging its hardware.

The Power Grid Eviction: How AI Is Pushing Bitcoin to Stranded Off-Grid Energy

For the past decade, Bitcoin miners operated on major electrical grids simply because that was where power substations already existed. But using prime, grid-connected baseload electricity to run an interruptible, location-agnostic program was always an economic inefficiency.

Now, AI hyperscalers are running into a massive bottleneck: getting new 100+ megawatt grid interconnections approved by utilities can take 3 to 5 years.

Hyperscalers are buying up every megawatt of prime, grid-tied power real estate they can find. In doing so, AI is pricing Bitcoin off the main electrical grid.

Far from destroying Bitcoin, this eviction restores it to its ideal thermodynamic role. Pushed off the grid, miners are forced to seek out energy that no one else can use: stranded wind in West Texas, flared natural gas in remote oil fields, or off-peak hydro in mountain ranges.

AI takes the expensive grid power; Bitcoin captures the world’s wasted energy at the edge, and acts as the buyer of last resort for stranded, wasted, or curtailed energy sources.

Eliminating the Miner Sell Pressure

The primary structural weakness of pure-play Bitcoin mining companies has always been balance sheet volatility during bear markets. When hash price drops, debt-heavy miners are forced to dump their mined Bitcoin reserves onto the open market just to pay electricity bills and corporate overhead. This forced liquidating creates artificial downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

The AI pivot fundamentally fixes this balance sheet flaw:

1. Fixed USD Cash Flow: Multi-year hosting leases signed with AI companies generate steady, high-margin dollar income.

2. Eliminating Forced Sales: With corporate overhead and debt service fully covered by AI lease revenue, operators no longer need to liquidate their Bitcoin treasury at market bottoms.

3. The “Mullet” Data Center: Forward-thinking operators run a hybrid model, using high-margin AI workloads on grid-tied power to pay fixed bills, while maintaining flexible Bitcoin operations to monetize off-peak power and balance local grid loads.

The Big Tech Paradox: Why AI Hyperscalers Will Eventually Hold Bitcoin

The final piece of this puzzle is a paradox that tech hyperscalers are only beginning to confront.

Big Tech is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to build an AI infrastructure that makes intelligence and digital content infinitely abundant. But when a digital good becomes infinitely abundant, its marginal cost trends toward zero.

How do you protect a multi-trillion-dollar tech balance sheet when your primary product, digital output, is unconstrained?

While AI makes digital intelligence infinite, Bitcoin imposes absolute, unalterable digital scarcity (capped strictly at 21 million units). Furthermore, Bitcoin is the only monetary asset whose issuance is directly bound to the same thermodynamic laws of work and energy that run data centers.

Consider the staggering opportunity cost already compounding on hyperscaler balance sheets. Data from Bitcoin for Corporations reveals that if Amazon (AMZN) had allocated its $123.03B cash reserve to Bitcoin over a 3-year period instead of cash and short-term Treasuries, its treasury productivity would have surged from 12.21% to 119.55%—a 10x increase in capital efficiency representing over $132 billion in unrealized gains.

(Try the Bitcoin Treasury Simulator with any stock ticker)

Just as a tech company signs a long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) to lock in electricity costs, holding Bitcoin operates as a PPA for monetary value. By sitting on massive cash stockpiles that yield nominal paper returns while spending billions fighting for physical energy, Big Tech leaves hundreds of billions in value on the table.

The shift taking place across data centers isn’t a trade-off where one technology wins and the other loses. It is a market optimization.

AI gets the high-speed, grid-connected real estate it needs to build synthetic intelligence. Bitcoin gets pushed further into the wilderness to capture cheap, wasted energy, backed by miners who no longer have to sell their coins to keep the lights on. And as the opportunity cost of holding depreciating fiat cash becomes too massive to ignore, hyperscalers will realize that securing the power grid is only half the battle: the ultimate reserve asset for an empire of infinite compute is physical digital scarcity.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 15:00

Global Oil Deficit To Hit 1.8 Million Bpd This Quarter, IEA Forecasts

The IEA slashed its 2026 global oil supply forecast, with output now expected to plunge 4.3 million barrels per day this year as the failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushes the market deeper into deficit, OilPrice reported.

The latest forecast is considerably worse than the 3.7-million-bpd decline the agency projected just last month and would leave global supply at 102.02 million bpd, its lowest forecast for 2026 yet.

Supply is now expected to fall 1.27 million bpd short of demand for the year, compared with an 860,000-bpd deficit implied by the IEA’s July forecasts.

The squeeze will be even more severe this quarter. The IEA now expects a 1.8-million-bpd deficit between July and September, a 1-million-bpd downward revision from July and the deepest quarterly oil deficit since the fourth quarter of 2021.

According to the IEA, Middle East oil flows briefly returned to pre-war levels in early July, with loadings reaching 20 million bpd, before falling to 12 million bpd later in the month. Middle East production remained 8.3 million bpd below pre-war levels in July.

The IEA cited the Hormuz shutdown, the U.S. blockade of Iranian exports, attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and reduced Kazakh CPC Blend exports among the forces keeping global supply below demand.

The supply shock is also destroying demand, with the IEA now expecting global oil consumption to contract by 1.6 million bpd this year, compared with a roughly 1-million-bpd decline forecast in July, as high prices and restricted supplies of refined fuels force consumers to cut consumption, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.

Refining is also becoming a major constraint, with global crude processing falling 5 million bpd year-over-year in July, while Russian refinery runs remained near a 20-year low of 3.9 million bpd following Ukrainian drone attacks. Russian fuel exports plunged to 1.4 million bpd, nearly half their July 2025 level.

The prolonged shortage is eating away at inventories. The IEA estimates global stocks have fallen by 410 million barrels since the Iran war began, while observed inventories dropped below 7.9 billion barrels in July for the first time since April 2025.

The agency forecasts supply could exceed demand by 4.61 million bpd in 2027, but that outlook assumes Middle East hostilities de-escalate and disrupted oil flows recover.

The latest IEA assessment adds to evidence challenging U.S. claims that Middle East oil flows have returned to normal. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Tuesday that total regional oil flows were averaging about 15 million bpd and exceeded pre-war levels on Sunday. Kpler said its vessel-tracking data could not be reconciled with those figures, while the EIA said Hormuz transits remain severely constrained.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 14:40

Nature Is Healing: Most S&P100 Companies Dump DEI Criteria From Board Selection

To be clear, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives drew heavily on radical Marxist theory and systematically displaced merit-based standards with unproductive, identity-driven politics. What corporate America marketed as a governance priority proved to be a short-lived ideological fad. Most S&P 100 companies are now dumping explicit diversity criteria from their board-selection policies amid growing recognition that mandates conceived in far-left academic institutions prioritized social engineering over productivity, competitiveness, and preserving America's economic dominance.

Bloomberg News cited a new report from research firm ESGAUGE that showed that 61 S&P 100 companies have removed explicit diversity requirements from their director-selection policies, marking a sharp reversal from three years ago.

This means these companies have removed explicit references to gender, race, ethnicity, and underrepresented groups from their board-selection criteria. Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Starbucks, and Wells Fargo are among those that eliminated the woke provisions.

The reversal suggests that DEI's cancer-like spread across corporate America during the Marxist riots of 2020 was less a durable governance reform and more an act of corporate self-sabotage.

The retreat signals growing recognition that policies rooted in radical Marxist ideology weakened merit-based decision-making and proved more destructive to corporate cohesion, productivity, and competitiveness.

Beyond corporate America, the Trump administration has stripped toxic DEI programs from federal agencies, the military, universities, and government contractors.

The very people who pushed this radical Marxism in corporate America are much of the same activists aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America who quite literally say they want to "destroy the nation from within."

The United States has successfully confronted Marxist attempts to derail it from its historic path of economic success, liberty, and order. Right now marks yet another point in history when the far left is attempting to systemically dismantle the nation. It is not just us saying this...

...DSA leaders say it in their own words.

And even in their own agenda, in which they want to seize power of the largest corporations. 

Should make sense now. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 14:00

Trump Admin Ends Medicaid Funding For Sex-Change Procedures On Kids

Via American Greatness,

The Trump administration announced Tuesday that Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program will no longer pay for sex-change procedures for minors, ending the use of federal taxpayer dollars for treatments officials say carry potentially irreversible health risks without sufficient evidence of clinical benefit.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said the new rule applies to puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones and sex-change surgeries for children. Mental health treatment for gender dysphoria and other conditions will remain eligible for coverage under Medicaid and CHIP.

CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz said the policy reflects the administration’s effort to protect children from medical interventions whose long-term effects remain uncertain.

“Children deserve our protection, not experimental interventions that pose serious risks and convey no proven benefits,” Oz said.

“By cutting off federal funds for these sex-rejecting procedures, we’re following the science, saving taxpayer dollars, and, most importantly, protecting children from potentially irreversible harm so they can truly flourish.”

The decision marks a significant reversal of federal policy on transgender medical procedures for minors and follows years of conservative opposition to using taxpayer money to finance medical transitions for children.

The Department of Health and Human Services said the affected procedures can cause lasting consequences, including infertility, impaired sexual function, reduced bone density and other physiological effects.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the administration’s decision followed a review of domestic and international research into medical interventions for minors experiencing gender dysphoria.

“Today, we are ending federal taxpayer funding for sex-rejecting procedures on children,” Kennedy said.

“These interventions carry serious risks and can cause irreversible harm.”

The administration said its review found substantial gaps in the evidence supporting the treatments, along with safety concerns that officials concluded did not justify continued taxpayer funding.

CMS cited the United Kingdom’s Cass Review as part of the evidence underlying its decision. The independent review, led by Dr. Hilary Cass and published in 2024, found limited evidence concerning the use of puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones for minors and concluded that medical practices had developed faster than the supporting evidence base.

“The Trump Administration is drawing a clear line: America’s children will not be subjected to life-altering interventions on the taxpayer’s dime without reliable evidence of safety and clinical benefit,” HHS Press Secretary Emily Hilliard said.

The funding restrictions will not take effect immediately for children already receiving hormone treatments. CMS will provide a six-month transition period after the rule takes effect, allowing Medicaid and CHIP funding for existing hormone treatments to be gradually phased out.

The policy represents the administration’s latest effort to restrict federal support for medical gender transitions involving minors while preserving coverage for mental health care.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 13:40

Tailing 10Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since 2007

When discussing yesterday's stellar 3Y auction, we said that the impressive demand for 3 year paper indicated that nobody was worried about today's CPI print... and as we learned this morning, that was justified, since the CPI came in right as expected. And since inflation is tame, and the labor market is not overheating, virtually nobody were worried that today's 10Y auction would have any issues finding new holders. Well, they were right: moments ago the US sold $42 billion in 10Y coupons, the week's second refunding auction. It priced at a high yield of 4.683%, up from 4.586% a month ago, and just wide of the 4.682% When Issued, translating to the first tail since May. Perhaps more notably, today's 10Y auction priced at the highest yield since 2007.

The bid to cover was virtually unchanged from last month, and in line with where it has been for much of the past decade: plus or minus 25bps of 2.50%. Sure enough, at 2.532, the bid to cover was a bit lower than the 2.592 a month ago, but above the six auction average of 2.47.

Internals were also solid, if hardly great, with Indirects awarded 76.73%, down from 81.49% in July - one of the highest ever - but above the recent average of 71.33, as foreign buyers once again park their excess cash in the US. And with Directs awarded 14.67%, up from 10.73% in July and the highest since May, Dealers were left holding 8.6%, one of the lowest on record.

Overall, this was a solid auction, and following yesterday's impressive 3Y, we expect tomorrow's 30Y sale to have no problems finding buyers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 13:26

US Now Expects Iran War Oil Supply Disruptions To Last Through End Of 2027

At first, the Hormuz lockdown was supposed to last a few weeks, tops. Not any more: the US now expects oil supply disruptions stemming from the US-Iran war to reach about 600,000 barrels per day through the end of next year as the conflict continues to crimp shipments via the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Oil transported through the waterway averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, according to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. That compares to an average of 21.6 million in the last quarter of 2025, before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran.

The figures indicate that a brief intermission in fighting, when a so-called memorandum of understanding was signed, did little to blunt the impact of one of the worst disruptions to global energy markets in history. A deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the strait remains elusive, though officials indicate talks are progressing.

"The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices continue to weigh on oil consumption," the Paris-based IEA said.

As the conflict extends into a sixth month, consumers around the world are once again facing the prospect of higher fuel prices and inflation. The EIA hiked gasoline and diesel price forecasts for 2026 by 3.7% and 5.4% respectively and increased its 2027 forecast for retail gasoline prices by 6.5% from its estimates a month earlier.

The volume of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to pin down in real time, as vessels going dark obscure shipping activity, leading to discrepancies in estimates among market participants. About 9 million barrels of oil a day exited the strait on average over the past week, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright, however independent tanker tracking services put the number far lower. 

The agency also estimates that Middle East production shut-ins eased to average about 5.5 million barrels a day in July, compared to 7.5 million barrels a day in June. The volume of oil shut in is expected to swell again to 6.6 million barrels a day in the third quarter.

Multiple Middle Eastern countries have been forced to curtail output as limited access to global markets strains available storage capacity.

The report assumes that recent threats to vessels carrying Saudi Arabian crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not resulted in additional production shut-ins. If that assumption holds, the agency expects most production and trade flows to take until early 2027 to return to pre-war levels.
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 13:20

Venezuela & Israel Restore Consular Ties After 17 Years Of No Diplomatic Relations

Venezuela and Israel have agreed to restore consular relations, in a major historic shift, following the US orchestrated overthrow of longtime leader Nicolas Maduro back in January.

Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, who was Maduro's VP, is at the head of a state system that is still fundamentally the same - which can be summed up as Chavismo Socialism - except the government now serves to do Washington's bidding from opening up oil access to foreign policy realignment. 

via Reuters

This external realignment has been seen most on the world stage on issues where Caracas was once among the most outspoken Global South countries condemning 'Western hegemony'.

Venezuela’s minister of foreign relations, Felix Plasencia Gonzalez, announced on X on Tuesday: "The Governments of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and the State of Israel report that they have agreed to continue bilateral technical cooperation derived from the emergency and recovery efforts following the double earthquake, as well as to establish a coordination mechanism for the provision of consular services to their respective citizens residing in both countries."

Caracas had severed ties 17 years ago in light of Israeli bombardment of Gaza at the time. Venezuela had also very openly aligned itself with America's longtime foe Iran, in addition to Russia and China. 

The former Maduro government had even pursued military cooperation with these countries, and hosted some of their military deployments over the years.

For its part, the Israeli government announced on X on its Spanish-language account that "both governments recognize the importance of the bond between the State of Israel and the Jewish community residing in Venezuela, which constitutes an important historical bridge of friendship between the two countries."

And a group called the Confederation of Jewish Associations of Venezuela announced that "After 17 years without consular relations, Venezuela and Israel are advancing in a confidence-building process that began with the various Israeli and Jewish organizations that came to Venezuela on the occasion of the double earthquake that struck the country on June 24, and which on that occasion provided great technical and humanitarian aid in the face of the tragedy and devastation."

Consulates are expected to open up in each country, to facilitate travel and help deepen relations to between the countries, now that relations are moving toward normalization again.

Venezuela and Israel have agreed to start offering consular services for each other's citizens.

There is still no talk of sending diplomats or opening permanent missions, however. pic.twitter.com/zuOQS5UEz5

— Elias Ferrer (@FerrerBreda) August 11, 2026

Since the Spring, American consular activity has been up and running, along with presumably the Caracas CIA station, also as even the Pentagon has held military drills in and around the Venezuelan capital.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 12:40

Ceuta Migrants Reach Mainland Spain Despite Government Denials; Report

Via American Greatness,

Dozens of migrants who entered the Spanish territory of Ceuta during last month’s massive border surge have reportedly reached mainland Spain, contradicting the socialist government’s insistence that none had left the North African enclave.

Sky News reported Tuesday, citing Spanish police sources, that about 75 migrants who entered Ceuta in late July had reached Andalucía in southern Spain.

“Spanish sources in Andalucía said that around 75 migrants out of the estimated 72,000 who entered Ceuta illegally in a mass rush to the border at the end of July had reached the mainland,” Sky News reported.

The report directly conflicts with assurances from the government of socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

“Nobody has left the city towards the peninsula, nor can they do so,” Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares said Tuesday during a visit to Ceuta.

Tens of thousands of mostly male North African migrants entered Ceuta on July 30, overwhelming the territory’s law enforcement, migrant processing facilities and other public services. Estimates have placed the number of arrivals between 60,000 and 80,000, approaching Ceuta’s normal population of about 80,000.

The surge followed a Spanish judicial ruling preventing authorities from immediately returning migrants who reach Spanish territory by land and requiring a longer legal process before removal.

Ceuta President and Mayor Juan Jesús Vivas has sharply criticized Madrid’s response and disputed the government’s portrayal of the crisis as under control.

“Ceuta has suffered and continues to suffer an invasion,” Vivas said Tuesday.

“We calculate that 10,000 immigrants are still in Ceuta and this creates an unsustainable situation.”

“The reaction of the government has not been on par with the demands of what occurred,” he added.

“A violation of the territorial integrity of Spain has occurred.”

The numbers provided by Madrid and local officials have also raised questions about the whereabouts of thousands of migrants. El País reported that the Sánchez government says 70,000 people entered Ceuta and 7,000 have been deported. El Mundo reported Monday that local officials estimate about 11,000 remain in Ceuta out of roughly 80,000 who entered.

Police sources told Sky News the crossings to mainland Spain represented a “worrying reactivation” of the migration route across the Strait of Gibraltar.

Albares nevertheless maintained Tuesday that the government would ultimately remove those who entered illegally.

“Up to the last person who entered irregularly into Spain will return to Morocco,” he said.

El País noted that Albares did not provide a specific timetable or mechanism for carrying out those removals.

The reports that migrants have reached mainland Spain add to mounting questions over Madrid’s handling of the crisis and whether the Sánchez government has accurately accounted for those who entered Ceuta.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 12:20

Putin Threatens Seizures Of European Ships Over EU's "Piracy & Banditry"

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday addressed the persisting issue of European governments and navies seizing what they deem Russian 'shadow fleet' vessels off Europe's coast.

The past year alone has seen several examples, sometimes involving French or Swedish commandos descending onto a tanker's deck from helicopters and arresting crew members. The seized vessels are then taken to nearby European ports.

The latest European Union sanctions package passed last month stipulates that EU members can sell the oil or any seized cargo obtained from these 'shadow fleet' vessels.

Putin has reiterated Kremlin outrage at this scheme, condemning it as "piracy and banditry". This after Sweden has lately declared its intent to hand seized Russian grain over to Ukraine.

Pool Sputnik Kremlin via AP

The Russian leader's patience has reached its limit, apparently, as he is now putting European governments that their own ships become at risk of seizure in return.

"We will be forced to respond in kind," Putin said while overseeing naval drills in Russia's Far East, aboard the Russian cruiser Varyag off the island of Sakhalin.

Russian forces will act "wherever we ourselves deem necessary and appropriate — anywhere," he added.

According to some of his fuller remarks as translated and presented in Reuters:

"We can see that the authorities of certain countries, in violation of international maritime law, are attempting to restrict the movement of our economic operators’ vessels..., and ​have recently gone so far as to consider the possibility of seizing our vessels and selling off ⁠the ⁠property they have plundered from ⁠us," said Putin.

"Naturally, ​this is nothing less than piracy and robbery. And if this begins to be put into ​practice, we shall be forced ⁠to respond in kind. And not necessarily in those waters where raids on our ships and vessels are planned, but wherever we ourselves deem it necessary and appropriate."

So while Russia would not likely act in European waters, such a scenario would be more likely to go down in places like the Black Sea or Baltic region, or perhaps the faraway Indian Ocean.

Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens to seize ships belonging to European countries in retaliation for plans to intercept and seize Russian vessels suspected of being part of Moscow’s “shadow fleet.” pic.twitter.com/k6Dig6bvni

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) August 12, 2026

Putin also took the opportunity to address broader tensions with NATO and spillover from the Ukraine conflict, but also as it specifically impacts the Pacific and Arctic regions...

"We can see that, unfortunately, the potential for conflict is growing here; NATO is making inroads here; new military-political blocs are being formed; and new weapons systems are being deployed here, or are planned for deployment, which ​also pose a threat to our country," the president said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 12:00

Trump Mulls Capital Gains Relief As Midterm Sweetener

President Donald Trump is looking for new policy pledges to put before voters ahead of November, and two of them involve cutting capital gains taxes, according to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former NEC chief Larry Kudlow, who discussed the proposals on Fox Business Tuesday.

Kudlow, who ran the council during Trump's first term and remains close to the president, said he had raised two ideas with Trump directly. The first is indexing capital gains to inflation, so investors would be taxed only on real gains rather than on the portion of an increase that simply reflects the dollar losing value. The second is exempting home sales of $2 million or less from capital gains taxes entirely.

"I spoke to him, he liked the idea of the indexing, he liked the idea of a bigger exemption," Kudlow said, adding that "the boss is very interested."

Hassett confirmed the broader effort and was unusually direct about the political strategy behind it. "He wants to hit people with the things that are promises that we're going to do if the Republicans have power in the future," he said. "So you can expect a lot more policy between now and the midterms."

The catch

Neither idea can happen without Congress, which means neither is likely to take effect before November. These are campaign commitments contingent on Republicans retaining power, a point Hassett effectively made explicit.

There is a potential workaround, and it has been tried before. Trump's first administration considered indexing capital gains through executive action, without legislation, but ultimately abandoned the effort. The obstacle is that the tax code's definition of an asset's "cost" has long been interpreted to mean the nominal price paid, making any change a matter for Congress rather than Treasury. Kudlow was pushing the unilateral approach as far back as 2018. It didn't happen then, either.

The legislative route isn't dead, but it is expensive. Republican Senators Ted Cruz and Tim Scott introduced an indexing bill earlier this year that was estimated to reduce federal revenue by roughly $200 billion. Indexing has never commanded unanimous Republican support, and versions of the idea have repeatedly failed since the Reagan years. Congress passed one in 1995, only for Bill Clinton to veto it as a tax cut for the rich.

Home Sale Exemption

The home-sale exemption may have better bipartisan prospects, for a reason that goes beyond either party's talking points. The current exclusion - $250,000 for single filers and $500,000 for married couples - was set in 1997 and has never been indexed for inflation, even as the median US home price has nearly tripled. A $500,000 exemption in 1997 dollars would be worth more than $1 million today.

The National Association of Realtors estimates that roughly 34% of American homeowners - about 29 million people - could already exceed the $250,000 single-filer cap, while about 10%, or 8 million, are above the $500,000 joint threshold. The group expects both figures to rise by 2030 and has warned of a "capital gains cliff" that can discourage homeowners from selling, further constraining supply and putting upward pressure on prices.

Midterms

The party holding the White House typically loses ground in midterm elections, and this cycle is not shaping up as an obvious exception. Republicans are contending with voter dissatisfaction over the economy and the war in Iran, while a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll reportedly gave Democrats an edge when voters were asked which party they trusted more to manage the economy.

White House spokesman Kush Desai kept his distance from the specifics. Trump is "always exploring new ideas to Make America Wealthy Again," he said, "but any policy announcements will come from the Administration directly."

Which is to say: two proposed tax cuts, no clear legislative path, and eleven weeks until the election.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 11:20

Lacy Hunt Turns Bearish Bonds: Studying His Reversal

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Economist Lacy Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most money managers have been in the business.

Recently, he made a surprising U-turn on his bullish stance. The following paragraph opens his Second Quarter Review and Outlook.

The structural backdrop for U.S. inflation increasingly suggests that the long-run equilibrium range is migrating from roughly1.5–3.5% toward 3.5–4.5%, with a significant risk of episodes of inflation above 5%. An important core reason is the steady erosion of the disinflationary architecture that dominated the 1990–2020 period, even as various cyclical pressures also play a role.

For nearly four decades, Lacy Hunt has been pounding the table for lower yields. As chief economist of Hoisington Investment Management, Hunt bought long-term bonds, betting that globalization and excessive debt impede economic growth, keeping a lid on inflation and interest rates. Despite the extraordinary monetary efforts to stem the 2008 financial crisis, the decade of extremely loose monetary policy following the crisis and even through the pandemic-related surge in the money supply and high inflation, Hunt held his deflationist line.

So, when Lacy Hunt and his partner Van Hoisington posted their Second Quarter Review and Outlook titled “Capital Scarcity and the End of Globalization’s Disinflationary Era,” heads turned. Backing their words with action, Hoisington Investment Management, managed by Hunt and Hoisington, sharply reduced their clients’ bond duration and put the proceeds in Treasury bills.

That reversal of such long-held opinions deserves serious attention. We provide a summary of their new views and some counterpoints to help you assess their new stance.

Our objective in this article is not to support Lacy Hunt or rebut his work, but to present his case and accompanying data to help you better assess his warning.

A Broken Production Function

Lacy Hunt’s basic bond bullish thesis for the last thirty-plus years rested on the core economic framework that economic output is a function of labor, capital, technology, and resources. Thus, anticipating changes to those four factors is paramount to forecasting output and inflation.

Hunt argues that the collapse of the Iron Curtain and China’s entry into global trade, along with economic globalization involving many other countries, introduced “One of the largest positive supply shocks in modern economic history.”

Hundreds of millions of low-cost workers entered the global economy, with manufacturing concentrating in the regions that could do so most cost efficiently. Simply, those countries that could produce at the cheapest costs did so to the benefit of the global economy. From the US perspective, outsourcing production resulted in cheaper goods.

Moreover, with enhanced global trade, global capital flows increased, and resources became more abundant. Further, because of the dollar’s reserve status, steadily increasing global trade boosted demand for US dollars and dollar investments like US Treasury debt.

Deflationary Debt

Hunt claims that the macroeconomic environment of the last 30 to 40 years helped explain why increasing debt levels were disinflationary. Per Hunt:

Diverted income away from consumption, restraining aggregate demand growth, while expanding global productive capacity absorbed liquidity and credit expansion without generating broad pricing pressure.

Further to his case, monetary velocity fell. Velocity calculates how often a dollar circulates through the economy. Inflation is a function of the supply of money and, often overlooked, the velocity of money. For the better part of the last 40 years, velocity declined as money was increasingly parked in financial assets rather than investments in plant and equipment or consumption. Corporate executives increasingly favored financial engineering, like stock buybacks, over capital investments. This inflated financial asset prices while doing little for the economy’s underlying productive capacity.

Hunt’s Shift

Hunt’s new stance appears to be predominantly based on three factors.

First, in his opinion, globalization is reversing. Tariffs, reshoring and friendshoring, alongside security-related trade protectionism, replace the “lowest-cost producer” model with a more expensive “secure and resilient producer” model.

Second, labor supply growth is slowing. The combination of lower birth rates, an aging population, and reduced immigration is decreasing the supply of labor, thus raising wage costs. Furthermore, with deglobalization, less outsourcing forces corporations to use more expensive labor domestically.

Third is capital scarcity. AI data centers, electrical grid modernization, and semiconductor fabs are all vying for the same scarce pool of capital, commodities, and skilled labor. At the same time, government deficits require significant capital, and it comes at a time when the national savings rate is near historic lows.  

Hunt’s Argument Versus Data

While Hunt makes a very convincing argument, we must analyze recent and historical data to see if the trends he envisions are starting to play out.

Inflation Expectations

The market isn’t buying into Hunt’s inflation forecast.  As we share below, the 5-, 10-, and 30-year breakeven inflation rates, as determined by TIPS and nominal Treasury securities, are at the same level they have been for the last four years and not that different from the post-financial crisis era. For context, Hunt is forecasting a 3.5-4.5% equilibrium range, and “episodes above 5%” which he flags as a real risk.

While expected long-term inflation hasn’t budged, long-term real yields have risen appreciably as shown below.

Given that Treasury yields are a function of expected inflation, current inflation, and the term premium, the graphs suggest that the term premium is largely to blame for higher interest rates. Investors are demanding higher yields as they are likely worried about the government’s growing borrowing needs alongside the massive capital being allocated to AI. This feeds into Hunt’s scarcity-of-capital argument, which we discuss next.

Capital Scarcity- Savings Rate

The United States appears to be entering a period in which the demand for capital is rising far faster than the domestic supply of saving.

Debt must be financed by domestic saving, foreign capital, or government intervention like quantitative easing (QE). A low domestic savings rate, shown below, means a greater reliance on the other funding sources. Hunt warns that expanding the money supply via increasing the Fed balance sheet (QE) can help the scarcity problem, but it can also drive inflation higher.

The U.S. has operated with a low net national saving rate for most of the last twenty-five years. This shortfall of an important funding source for US Treasury debt has in part been financed by foreign capital requiring dollar assets and QE at times. Despite the recent bout of higher inflation, poor bond returns, large fiscal deficits, and recent policy actions like tariffs, the international inflow of capital to the US Treasury has continued to grow, offsetting the low saving rate.

Whether we can continue to depend on foreign investors depends heavily on the dollar’s reserve-currency status, a variable Hunt’s letter doesn’t directly address.

We view the military actions in Venezuela and Iran, as well as some recent trade deals, as viable attempts to strengthen the dollar’s reserve currency status, thus bolstering foreign demand for US debt.

Furthermore, forcing crypto stablecoins to hold US Treasury securities as collateral should provide a multi-trillion-dollar source of new funding for the Treasury.

QE

Hunt mentions QE as another possible source of future deficit funding. He views this as inflationary. To wit, he provides recent evidence:

Substantial liquidity injections occurred from mid-December 2025 through June 2026. In this period, the Federal Reserve purchased approximately $290 billion of Treasury securities, igniting a surge in bank deposits and loans. ODL rose at a torrid 8.9% annualized rate in this year’s first six months—more than 1.6 times faster than its ten-year compounded growth rate… This Fed-driven liquidity event, along with the recovery in velocity, may explain a sharp February reacceleration in inflation prior to the latest geopolitical energy shock.

Hunt assumes that a recent seven-month bout of QE was inflationary. It may have been, but the graph below shows a weak but negative historical correlation between QE and inflation.

Hunt does concede that QE may not be an inflationary concern. He credits Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s balance-sheet restraint as “an important monetary offset to fiscal expansion.”

Warsh, a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, was arguably the Fed’s most consistent skeptic of asset purchases, and after his term ended, he became one of the most vocal outside critics. Warsh as the Fed chair, on its face, is a bet against the QE playbook Hunt says just reignited inflation. Hunt’s 3.5 – 4.5% inflation range may hold water if fiscal and market pressures overwhelm Warsh’s instincts.

Global Trade

President Trump has imposed tariffs and other protectionist measures on many imported products. He has also incentivized domestic companies to shift production back home. While the actions may appear to have an anti-globalization impact, the data so far tell a different story.

Global trade, exports plus imports relative to world GDP, climbed to an estimated 68.5% in 2025, the highest level in 46 years, per the World Bank. Moreover, despite Trump’s trade policies, 2025’s 68.5% was a big jump from 56.7% in 2024. If tariffs and reshoring were meaningfully unwinding globalization, that ratio would be flat or falling. Similarly, the US trade deficit is bouncing around the same levels as it was under President Biden and worse than any reading before 2020.

AI And Productivity

Moving on to AI and productivity, Hunt rightly blames the capital intensity of building data centers and the resulting upgrades to the electrical grid for making capital scarcer and pushing interest rates higher. However, he gives little weight to the possibility that AI-driven productivity gains show up sooner rather than later and act as a disinflationary force, much as prior technology waves eventually did.

In our opinion, it is unknown when the productivity benefits of AI, including lower inflation, will ease the capital scarcity argument. History shows that the benefits could accrue rapidly or they could take time.

Summary

None of the recent evidence we share indicates Lacy Hunt will be wrong. He is forecasting a regime change to the macroeconomic environment that recent data trends haven’t picked up on. 

Hunt also acknowledges his forecast is not necessarily that of higher interest rates. He writes:   

The result is not a simple forecast of continuously rising interest rates, but rather a more volatile interest-rate regime.

He notes that a recession, a favorable supply shock, or successful balance-sheet restraint under Chairman Warsh could still deliver lower inflation and falling rates. His Treasury Bill purchases appear to be not just a bet on higher inflation and a sustained high term premium, but equally a desire to avoid volatility in the long end of the curve.

While we have the utmost respect for Lacy Hunt, we must remember that he is making a forecast, an educated guess. His warnings may prove correct. But he is forecasting a big change in the way the global economy operates and its impact on capital flows. Further, he is making assumptions about one of the greatest technological innovations that is just in its infancy.

Might the Covid echo be coming to an end and the historical disinflationary trends of the last forty years be reasserting themselves, or are we in the early innings of the macroeconomic regime change Hunt is calling for?

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 11:00

WTI Dips After Massive Crude Inventory Build, Big SPR Drain, Surge In Imports

Oil prices are marginally lower this morning as OPEC again cut its forecast for global oil-demand growth for this year, but stalled talks to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway and risks in the Red Sea prolong disruptions to global supplies.

Physical disruptions are spreading beyond Hormuz. Refinery attacks and fires have hit Russia and Libya, while the Houthis claimed another attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan complex. The Red Sea has become a key alternative export route for the Kingdom, and Houthi attacks are putting that release valve under pressure.

Overnight saw API report a huge crude inventory build and 

API

• Crude +9.1mm

• Cushing +1.6mm

• Gasoline -1.5mm

• Distillates -600k

DOE

• Crude +17.4mm (-1.4mm exp) - biggest build since Jan 2023

• Cushing +1.61mm

• Gasoline -968k

• Distillates -10k

After API's reported large build, the official data showed an almost unprecedented 17.4mm barrel build in crude stocks (the biggest since Jan 2023), Cushing saw another build while products saw draws for the second week in a row...

The massive oil stock build was driven by imports which rose to the highest level since November 2024. The US imported over a million barrels a day of oil last week, in part driven by a rise in Venezuelan imports and a return of Saudi Arabian oil. This is a sharp reversal from only a few months prior when oil was flowing abroad in massive quantities.

Net Imports at their highest since June 2025 (thanks in addition to a big slump in US crude exports to the lowest since Nov 2025) ...

Stocks at the critical Cushing Hub are limping off 'tank bottoms'...

As we detailed here, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw drawdowns re-accelerate last week (with 6.1mm barrels leaving the caves of salt), back below $300 million barrels to its lowest level since January 1983. Nevertheless, total commercial crude stocks rose 11.3mm barrels last week - the largest since February...

A total of 117 million barrels of crude has been taken out of the SPR since late March under a program to release 172 million barrels as part of a relief plan coordinated by the IEA aimed at lowering energy costs.

US Crude production also limped higher near record highs as the rig count continues to rise...

The oil stock build comes even as refiner runs rose and are sitting at the highest seasonal level since 2019. Fuel makers have signaled they intend to run harder-than-usual through the third quarter, a time when plants typically go down for maintenance.

WTI dipped back below $83 after the official data, holding gains from Friday's close around $77...

Interestingly, Bloomberg points out that US gasoline demand continued to remain resilient in the face of elevated gasoline prices. US retail gasoline prices are averaging over $4 per gallon, almost $1 per gallon (29%) higher than last year’s level at this time, according to data from the American Automobile Association. However, this week’s gasoline demand is only 36,000 barrels per day -- 0.4% lower compared to last year. 

Finally, as we noted yesterday, quoting Bloomberg macro strategist, Michael Ball, market structure reflects that stress better than outright prices. Brent and WTI curves remain backwardated and refining cracks are elevated, signaling near-term scarcity. Options are less aggressively bullish, with 25-delta call skews in both benchmarks dropping to their least bullish levels since July 10.

That points to a market vulnerable to spot disruptions while increasingly pricing a path toward de-escalation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 10:39

Speaking Loudly And Leaning On A Big Schtick

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday saw the regular schtick where the Middle East situation remains worrying, but markets reacted to more positive narratives. After four crew and two rescuers were killed in a Houthi Red Sea attack on a ship and the US struck another in the Gulf of Oman’ trying to break its Iran blockade; Iran said Hormuz will stay closed unless the US meets its over-reach conditions; Trump doubled down on economic warfare vs Tehran because he thinks it’s “bleeding badly” -with the other option still being to “hit them really hard”; yet the Wall Street Journal reported ‘Iran Is Defying US Pressure by Becoming a ‘Survival Economy’; Pakistan claimed a US-Iran deal is close, and US Energy Secretary Wright said far more oil is flowing through Hormuz than others estimate, suggesting the US doesn’t really need to act.

This routine will likely continue through to the US midterms – and then we will see what happens. The old presidential adage is that one should speak softly and carry a big stick. Speaking loudly and leaning on a big schtick is not going to work for ever. On which, recent reports that the US is ‘out of munitions' are true for precision varieties, not more traditional types that need to be used in greater proximity. If the US isn’t ultimately prepared to take those kinds of risks in a war against Iran, it will carry a geopolitical message that will not speak softly at all.

What the US (and allies) are running low on is Patriot missile defences. Yet just after the Pentagon gave US military industries 21 days to submit plans for “significantly faster” weapons production, Boeing has unveiled a cheap radar seeker built from off-the-shelf parts. They say necessity is the mother of invention; just not of higher margins, perhaps. (Then again, as I have repeatedly stressed, wars are won with bullets, not profits.) Yet much broader structural shifts in economics, not just economies, is evident on the ground and the Establishment intellectual level.

The pro-free trade Economist argues China’s neo-mercantilist, Leninist trade model is so effective that no form of western capitalism can withstand it. Stop looking at your screen for a moment and contemplate what that implies both right now and going forwards.

The sine qua non free trade academic Paul Krugman just admitted two hundred years of positive-sum free-trade thinking has been a ”sunny view… based on the assumption that we care about economic prosperity, not national power” – which is not true. War is raging and economies, currencies, and commodities have been weaponised. He admits we now need to look at ‘geoeconomics’ instead, which is the history of zero-sum economic statecraft and neo-mercantilism.

Foreign Affairs (‘The Right Way to Balance Trade: What Comes After the Neoliberal Order’) attacks Trump’s tariffs but argues for a West+ bloc common tariff against China and any trans-shipment, with low intra-bloc trade restrictions for those who also don’t run large trade surpluses, and industrial policies. Regular readers might recall this is what we have previously argued was the logical US grand macro strategy – and that attacks on Canada and Europe, etc., could be attempts to force them into accepting the common external tariff over the heads of vested interests vociferously against them. (If so, would a carrot not be better than a stick? Perhaps: but this wasn’t a normative call, just a descriptive one.)

Some also point out that even as Europe warms up for a potential trade war with China, it does not grasp the scale of the change in the world economy is lives in.

In particular, the Chinese industries the EU will likely take aim at are now mature, so require few direct subsidies that the EU will be looking for; the Leninist Chinese model helps supersize future industries so they can then stand on their own two feet. What policy framework, and working with whom, will Europe ultimately put in place within a ‘rules-based approach’ to try to retain its mature industries and to ensure that it develops new ones? (The same question also applies to the US, of course.)

As a signal, Vietnam -- a GDP growth star via a low valued-added, FDI-based, export-driven economic model-- is pivoting: it now wants to grow its own Korean-style ‘chaebol' conglomerates to boost productivity and growth longer term on its terms. Is it wrong to do so when it could instead be focusing on quarterly earnings reports and outsourcing everything that it can?

Football provides an analogy to what the above may mean for us all in time: the world’s Beautiful Game --which recall isn’t actually big in India, China, or the US, the three most populous and first-, second-, and fifth-largest economies-- might split.

Trump backs FIFA President Infantino, under furious attack over a World Cup sale plan dreamed up during a hydration break. UEFA, with some other federations, are developing a new rival framework for running world game. Might we end up with World Cups with different rules, sponsors, and participants?

If so, note what was a medieval mob game took a long time to grow into the rules-based one played first by English gents before then becoming a globalized money-making behemoth; and that there were early splits between those who wanted to play only with feet and those who wanted to also handle the ball – which ultimately became other sports.

In short, the West needs to relearn the Beautiful Great Game. But are its universities teaching geoeconomics or neo-mercantilism to allow the next generation of leaders to think up, and the bureaucrats to implement, such policies? Are its economists really capable of adapting to that reality rather than giving the same old advice under a new label? Are its analysts capable of projecting the dots of what it all implies?

Notably, the ECB’s annual conference in September will be held under the title ‘Geoeconomics and the International Trading System’, but the participants are still economists rather than the likes of Edward Luttwak, who coined the phrase geoeconomics in 1990 to describe how the "logic of conflict" merges with the "grammar of commerce.”

Today, of course, we can put that all aside to focus on US CPI, as if it isn’t intimately tied up with the above backdrop. Here is an ugly game all of its own – and one where the ‘rules’ change all the time.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 10:20

Hasan Piker's "Touch Of Death"? Far-Left Francesca Hong Loses Wisconsin's Dem Primary For Governor

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly won Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary on Tuesday night, defeating far-left state lawmaker Francesca Hong despite her backing from Marxist streamer Hasan Piker.

David Crowley, who reentered the Wisconsin governor’s race after securing the endorsement of Gov. Tony Evers, won the battleground state’s Democratic primary, defeating democratic socialist Francesca Hong. https://t.co/lrN1X3dlXK pic.twitter.com/4eJKC1BhbQ

— The Associated Press (@AP) August 12, 2026

BREAKING: Polymarket projects Francesca Hong has been defeated by David Crowley — 99% chance. https://t.co/vhzxuK0tI2

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 12, 2026

Hong's loss raises a broader question for the democratic socialist movement: Has Piker's support become a political liability?

Francesca Hong is campaigning with Hasan Piker pic.twitter.com/7DtvJk9hKV

— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) August 2, 2026

His incendiary, anti-American rhetoric, including calls to "kill capitalists," has handed Republicans a potent line of attack against the socialist and Marxist candidates he promotes. In addition, leaders of the Democratic Socialists of America routinely call for undermining the nation and collapsing capitalism.

Wisconsin Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong: “I'd say it's about f***ing time we 86 Trump.” pic.twitter.com/HrqL1uT0bp

— America (@america) August 4, 2026

It increasingly appears that the DSA's ultimate goal is not affordability, opposition to data centers, or whatever issue its members happen to be promoting that day to rile up fellow Marxists. It is really about ending the American empire.

Hong's loss is a major sigh of relief for the Democratic Party establishment, which initially welcomed socialists and Marxists into their "big tent" DEI kingdom, but that has since turned out to be a terrible idea as the far-left seizes political power from establishment candidates in several primaries across the country this summer. 

Politico wrote earlier, "The far left hits a wall," adding, "After hot DSA summer comes the fall."

Democrats are desperately trying to distance themselves from Piker, socialists, and Marxists. Republicans have been handed a political gift because far-left soundbites, such as Hong repeatedly calling to defund the police and cancel Thanksgiving, are unpopular with the majority of Americans. That's because defund the police was already tried during the Marxist BLM riot days and entirely failed, leading to more violent crime and murders. 

Francesca Hong, 2020: Cancel Thanksgiving.

Hong, Two Days Ago: Thanksgiving is a time that's incredibly painful for many people in our communities.

Hong, Today: My favorite holiday is Thanksgiving. I love it. pic.twitter.com/cA5Qg9Lm4S

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) August 5, 2026

Yet these DSA candidates are hell-bent on running on nation-killing policies and an anti-American agenda that risks branding the entire Democratic Party as far-left and radical.

She also supports:

• Abolishing the police
• Abolishing prisons
• Abolishing borders
• Raising taxes to fund government-run grocery stores

🚨 Socialists are targeting Wisconsin.

Their leading candidate for governor, Francesca Hong, wants to:

• Abolish the police
• Abolish prisons
• Abolish borders
• Raise your taxes for government-run grocery stores

This isn’t “progressive” — it’s radical, dangerous, and… pic.twitter.com/3wnP8nOvnK

— GRANDPA’s FREE ADVICE (@GOP_is_Gutless) July 16, 2026

Some of Hong's comments are pure comedy because her worldview is fundamentally flawed. This remark is also racist: describing having a half-white son as "being in proximity to whiteness."

Francesca Hong describes having a half white son as "being in proximity to whiteness." pic.twitter.com/Ix0j0nisnF

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) August 3, 2026

Translation:

Whiteness means capitalism

— Karlyn Borysenko, anti-communist cult leader (@DrKarlynB) August 4, 2026

Piker melted down overnight over Hong's loss:

Hasan Piker ends off his stream by melting down over Francesca Hong’s defeat and threatening the establishment

“The knives will be out” pic.twitter.com/Gzd4KUO81B

— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) August 12, 2026

Related:

• Even Lefty Joe Scarborough Goes Nuclear On Dems For Refusing To Disavow Democratic Socialists
• Bombshell Report Exposes Lefty NGOs Funding A Children's Charity Tied To Terror Network
• California Orders NGO Serving As "Financial Backbone" For Singham-Linked Marxism Causes To Cease Operations

DSA is far-left; let's not forget that. 

Understand here:

Honestly, let Piker and the rest of the socialists and Marxists keep talking. Their inflammatory soundbites are gold mines for opposition research.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 10:11