Zero Rss

Key Events This Week: Trump-Xi Meeting, Fed Speakers, PMIs And Durables

After an extremely busy week for central bank decisions, the week ahead brings a mix of economic data, even more central bank decisions, lots of Fed speak, and geopolitical events.

The first read of the September PMIs across the major economies on Wednesday should provide the most timely update on global growth momentum, while investors will also be watching policy decisions from the Norges Bank, Riksbank and SNB on Thursday with their hike probabilities according to futures at 62%, 21% and 5% respectively, according to Deutsche Bank.

Attention will also turn to the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi on Thursday which will likely garner a lot of headlines. We also have opening week of the UN General Assembly debate in New York.

In the US, the focus will increasingly shift towards next Friday’s payrolls report, which will be the most important data release before the October FOMC meeting. Ahead of that, markets will be very keen to hear from a heavy schedule of Fed speakers throughout the week. These comments will frame last week’s FOMC meeting, where policymakers delivered a widely expected rate increase but signalled a more hawkish policy outlook. The updated projections showed a strong majority of officials anticipating further tightening, while Chair Warsh emphasized that the Committee still sees limited evidence that policy is meaningfully restrictive.  

Fed communication begins today with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee alongside the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Tomorrow, investors receive the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. On the policy front, Fed Vice Chairs Williams and Jefferson are due to speak. Williams is viewed as one of the four officials who are still expected to see the Fed easing by the end of next year, so any hints on that outlook will be closely scrutinized.  

Wednesday’s main event will be the September flash PMIs. Economists expect the US manufacturing PMI to edge down to 53.6 from 53.9, while the services gauge is forecast to ease slightly to 55.9 from 56.5. Given the recent focus on AI-related investment and broader capex trends, these surveys will be watched closely for signs that business activity remains resilient. Fed Governor Barr is also due to speak. Investors will also be watching Wednesday's Treasury buyback announcement ahead of Thursday's 20-30yr operation, particularly after last month's decision to at least double the size of long-end buybacks.  

Thursday sees August new home sales and initial jobless claims. Last week continuing claims hit their lowest since January 2024. Fed speakers include Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson, offering further opportunities for markets to assess where officials stand after last week’s hawkish meeting. Friday’s US durable goods report will be particularly important from a growth perspective. Our economists expect headline orders to rise by 0.6% month-on-month, with orders excluding transportation and core capital goods both expected to increase by 1.1%. The data should provide one of the clearest indications yet of whether the recent strength in business investment is being sustained. Williams and Hammack are also due to speak on Friday.  

Here is a day-by-day calendar, courtesy of DB

Day-by-day calendar of events

Monday September 21

• Data: US August Chicago Fed national activity index, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates
• Central banks: Fed's Goolsbee speaks, ECB’s Kazimir and Dolenc speak, BoC’s Macklem speaks

Tuesday September 22

• Data: US September Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, UK August public finances, Eurozone September consumer confidence
• Central banks: Fed's Williams, Jefferson and Barkin speak, ECB's Nagel and Sleijpen speak
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)
• Other: General debate of the UN’s General Assembly in New York (until September 28)

Wednesday September 23

• Data: US, UK, Germany, France and Eurozone September PMIs
• Central banks: Fed's Barr speaks, ECB's Vujcic, Zigman and Lane speak
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)
• Other: OECD’s interim economic outlook

Thursday September 24

• Data: US August new home sales, September Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, Q2 current account balance, initial jobless claims, Japan September PMIs, Germany September Ifo survey, France September consumer confidence, business confidence, EU27 August new car registrations, Canada July retail sales, Australia labour force survey
• Central banks: Central bank decisions in Norway, Sweden and Switzerland, Fed's Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson speak, ECB’s economic bulletin, BoE’s Dhingra, Breeden and Lombardelli speak
• Earnings: Costco
• Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)
• Other: US President Trump and China’s President Xi meeting in the US

Friday September 25

• Data: US August durable goods orders, September Kansas City Fed services activity, UK September GfK consumer confidence, Germany October GfK consumer confidence, Eurozone August M3
• Central banks: Fed's Williams and Hammack speak, ECB's Vujcic speaks

Looking at just the US, The key economic data release this week is the durable goods report on Friday. There are many speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Barr on Wednesday, President Paulson on Thursday, President Hammack on Thursday and Friday, and President Williams on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday.

Monday, September 21 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 06:30 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak about monetary policy at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On August 28, Goolsbee said, “As I look at the inflation data, we were above the target, then it was going the wrong way, then we got a couple of months of more benign readings but that certainly doesn’t feel like we’re out of the woods.”

Tuesday, September 22 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
• 10:05 AM New York Fed President Williams speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks during the New York Fed’s Treasury Market Conference. Speech text is expected. On September 2, Williams explained that “we are neither seeing second-round effects, nor unusual broadening of the effects of higher energy prices, and we are seeing well anchored inflation expectations,” though his comments came prior to September’s warmer CPI print.
• 10:20 AM Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak at the New York Fed’s Treasury Market Conference on discount window modernization and Treasury market functioning. Speech text is expected.
• 01:00 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver a speech to the CFA Society Baltimore. Speech text and Q&A are expected.

Wednesday, September 23 

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, September preliminary (consensus 53.5, last 53.9); S&P Global US services PMI, September preliminary (consensus 56.0, last 56.5)
• 10:05 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on housing at the Chicago Fed Community Development Summit. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On September 1, Barr said, “A series of shocks—from tariffs and then the conflict in the Middle East, as well as from the rapid AI buildout—has pushed us off course. And core non-housing services inflation remains elevated.” He also added that “with inflation above target for a protracted period, there is a risk of broader price pressures taking hold, a risk I am watching closely.”

Thursday, September 24 

• 04:10 AM New York Fed President Williams speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion during the London Macro Policy Forum. Q&A is expected.
• 08:00 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will participate in a fireside chat at The Economic Club of Washington D.C. Q&A is expected.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 19 (GS 200k, consensus 200k, last 196k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 12 (consensus 1,750k, last 1,730k)
• 08:50 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks at the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the European Central Bank. Speech text is expected. On September 4, Hammack stated, “Both the hard data and the anecdotes are telling me the same thing: policy is not restrictive. Inflation is too high—and the longer it stays above our objective, the harder it will be to bring it back down…Right now, what I’m hearing is that it is time to act.”
• 10:00 AM New home sales, August (GS +0.7%, consensus +1.3%, last -10.5%)
• 10:10 AM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak about the economic outlook at the Tenth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Philadelphia Fed. Speech text is expected. On August 4, Paulson explained that she sees “two plausible scenarios for how current policy is affecting inflation.” One is that “the current setting of the federal funds rate is mildly restrictive and this will bring inflation to 2 percent in an acceptable time frame” and the other is that “current policy is not restrictive enough to deliver our target rate of 2 percent inflation.”

Friday, September 25 

• 05:15 AM New York Fed President Williams speaks: New York Fed President Williams will participate in a policy panel during the 6th Monetary Economics Conference in Oxford, UK. Q&A is expected.
• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, August preliminary (GS -1.0%, consensus -0.3%, last +1.1%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, August preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, August preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.7%, last flat); Core capital goods shipments, August preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.7%, last +1.2%): We estimate that durable goods orders declined 1.0% in the preliminary August report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) based on our tracking of commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.5% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting continued strength in the new orders components of manufacturing surveys in August—and a 0.3% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, September final (GS 47.5, consensus 47.5, last 47.8): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, September final (GS 3.4%, last 3.4%)
• 2:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a policy panel discussion at the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the European Central Bank. Q&A is expected.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 10:55

Another Tanker Struck In Strait Of Hormuz As Iran's President Heads To NY

Just as the Iranian delegation of President Masoud Pezeshkian is set to fly to New York City for this week's UN General Assembly, where it's expected that the Iranians could be engaged in some sideline diplomacy with the White House, another tanker incident has unfolded off in the Persian Gulf area.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency is reporting Monday that an oil tanker has been "struck by an unknown projectile" while on an inbound transit route in the Strait of Hormuz.

As a result of the attack under as yet unknown circumstances two crew members suffered "minor injuries". But the vessel is reportedly in good enough shape to continue on to its next port of call.

It may have been the result of a small drone, given what appears to only be light damage or an incident not significant enough to put the vessel out of commission. Tehran is seeking to keep its leverage and 'control' over the vital energy transit waterway.

"Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO," the reiterated. 

But oil prices have slid to their lowest in 11 days amid optimism that Iran's Pezeshkian could hold talks with US officials, or else could engage in renewed diplomacy via mediators on the UN sidelines.

Trump in a Sunday Fox News interview actually indicated openness to a meeting with Pezeshkian, in a first of the war. Trump was asked about the high level UN meeting and surprisingly he went so far as to say he would "probably be open" to meeting with the Iranian president.

Still, this was all coupled with threats. In Trump's mind, there seem to be three options on the table, or as he put it--"to obliterate Iran, letting it rot economically or reach a deal."

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, has observed, "It seems that a degree of risk premium is being removed from oil prices on hopes that a diplomatic path to de-escalate the US-Iran war may arrive this week."

Meanwhile, a regional US commander has claimed that oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the the Strait of Hormuz have reached their highest level in six months. This is being hailed as a sign that US naval protection and mine-clearing efforts could finally be paying off.

Iran has meanwhile over the weekend once again warned US allies in the region that they'll be considered "complicit" if the US resumes it military assault on the Islamic Republic. The Iranian military HQ stated that "any mistakes will result in painful attacks."

Iran’s President Will Enter the U.S. DURING the War for the UN Meeting

This is VERY RISKY

President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to travel to New York in the coming days to address the UN General Assembly and meet world leaders.

The security situation is extraordinary. Dr.… pic.twitter.com/AtY24KDYEd

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) September 20, 2026

Tehran further indicated Sunday that it is still awaiting Trump's response to its conditions for ending the war. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf confirmed to AFP that Iran's demands were sent to Washington via the Qataris. The US could decide to convey its counter offer while the Pezeshkian delegation is in town.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 10:45

Is Trump Secretly Pushing For A Deal When Iran's President Arrives In NY

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

 All The News That Is Not Fit To Price

Political and geopolitical developments again stole the headlines over the weekend, with attendant market implications. Active European gasoil futures are lower this morning despite news that Ukraine had launched a “massive” drone attack against Moscow that had damaged a major refinery. Brent crude oil prices are also lower despite news that Donald Trump had cut short a trip to Camp David to return to Washington, reports that Iran had activated its highest military readiness alert amid claims that the US is preparing to resume attacks, Houthi attacks on the Saudi capital Riyadh, and Pentagon Pizza Report activity suggestive of something afoot. Asian stocks are broadly higher this morning and US equity index futures are pointing towards a positive open.

President Trump announced late last week that Denmark and the United States had struck a deal to provide the US with military access to the Greenland in perpetuity. Trump said that the agreement bars non-NATO countries from establishing bases and gives the US the right to refuse third party nations from holding economic interests in the territory. Aside from its strategic value adjacent to the Arctic and lying between the United States and hypothetical ballistic missile paths from Russia, various media outlets have also pointed towards Greenland’s deposits of rare earth minerals as an important factor in the US’s interest in the territory. Trump said that the US would commence the work of beefing up its military presence in Greenland immediately. 

That was far from being the only major development on transatlantic security over the weekend. Social media was teeming with speculation over Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call French party leaders and presidential hopefuls to a closed-door briefing at the Elysee regarding the worsening international security situation. Attendees were reportedly briefed by senior intelligence officials on intensifying threats from Russian hybrid warfare, including cyberattacks, sabotage, drone strikes, assassinations and grey-zone tactics. Macron warned that the threat has expanded from state and military targets and could now result in civilian casualties. 

Concurrently, Polish PM Donald Tusk warned citizens that there are difficult times ahead and said that Russia is planning further drone and missile attacks on NATO territory. Meanwhile, Britain’s BBC asks the question “War may be coming. Are we psychologically ready?” Perhaps a more interesting question is at what point are grey zone attacks sufficient for NATO’s article 5 to be invoked? And what would actually happen if it was? 

The answer to that question suddenly seems less clear after Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that he would not allow Slovakia to be pulled into a military conflict with Russia because of NATO’s collective defence clause. Such an ‘all the benefits, none of the costs’ approach does nothing to dispel American criticisms of a mentality of free-riding on the continent and again highlights the lack of political cohesion at the supranational level, even as Canada under Mark Carney seeks deeper trade and security ties with a European bloc that still hasn’t seen fit to fully ratify the CETA trade agreement.

Elsewhere in Europe the far-right AfD followed up its recent win in Saxony-Anhalt by recording a strong result in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania elections to finish with the highest vote share (38.2%), just ahead of the left-wing SPD (35.5%), while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU slumped to just 4.9% of the vote – its worst result in any state election since the formation of the Federal Republic of Germany. That figure is low enough to see the CDU ejected from the state parliament altogether. Merz called the result a “disaster”. 

While the far right was making ground, so was the far left. The Die Linke party won 25.7% of the vote to finish first in the Berlin elections. Nevertheless, a deal between other parties may still see it barred from capturing the Berlin mayoralty, which would likely stymie efforts to enact its program of nationalizing privately owned property in a bid to lower rents.

Despite the poor electoral results, Chancellor Merz is saying that he will stay on in an effort to deliver on a program of economic and security reforms that he said could be “the antidote to authoritarianism”.

US ten-year treasury yields closed 6.5bps higher on Friday while two-year yields rose by almost 8bps to see a modest bear flattening of the curve. That’s as Scott Bessent met with Chinese Vice Premier Hi Lifeng on Sunday ahead of a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in Washington later this week. Discussions reportedly centerd around trade, artificial intelligence and rare earths. 

Further discussions will be held later today to lay the groundwork for Trump-Xi summit which will now occur in the context of China having been cut off from cheap oil supplies from Venezuela and Iran, having energy supplies from Russia pressured by Ukrainian strikes, chased out of the Panama Canal, seeing its Arctic ambitions challenged by an increased US presence in Greenland, and watching sympathetic governments in South America fall like dominoes to US-aligned right wing challengers. On the latter, Polymarket now has Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula by 62-41 for the October 5th Presidential election.

News over the weekend that Saudi Arabia had quit China’s mBridge digital currency program that US critics have said subverts the role of the US dollar in the global monetary system coincided with news that the US State Department had approved the sale of 48 F-35 fighter jets to the Kingdom. Saudi leaving the Chinese payments initiative may be just as strong a signal as the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ about the US’ determination to play a much more aggressive brand of the Great Game to secure its own enduring interests. 

With Iranian President Pezeshkian set to arrive in New York for the UN General Assembly this week – and Donald Trump expressing willingness to meet with him – rumors of Gulf states preparing to sign on to the Abraham Accords continue to swirl.

Could we see a deal done? Or could all the news that the market has not seen fit to price suddenly show up in the price action?

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 10:30

Media TV Pool Won't Cover Trump As CNN, MS NOW, Politico To Sue Over White House Ban

CNN, MS NOW and Politico notified the federal government on Monday that they intend to sue the Trump administration to get their White House credentials back, three days after the president announced from Truth Social that he was barring all three from the building.

President Donald J. Trump makes an announcement on health care in the Oval Office at the White House in DC on Sept. 18. (Evan Vucci, Reuters)

The outlets have retained First Amendment lawyer Ted Boutrous, who beat the administration on this exact question in 2018, and are seeking emergency relief in federal district court in Washington.

The Ban

Trump announced the ban on Friday, writing that outlets "shouldn't be able to constantly write or report FICTION and LIES when they're covering the President." He later added that "there's something wrong with a country that can allow people to write purposely negative stuff."

The order was enforced at the White House gates the next morning. On Saturday, journalists arriving to cover the administration were stopped by the Secret Service at the West Wing security checkpoints. CNN's Betsy Klein, MS NOW's Akayla Gardner and Politico's Cheyenne Haslett were turned away; an agent told Gardner her press pass had been deactivated.

By Monday, CNN was removed from pooled coverage duties - the rotating assignment under which one network's crew feeds video to every other outlet - and CNN and MS NOW were blocked from using their television equipment and camera positions on the grounds. 

On the pool itself: Fox News Washington bureau chief Bryan Boughton, who chairs the TV pool (ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC, Fox rotate), emailed pool subscribers that there would be “no replacement pool put in place” after the White House blocked CNN from its assigned duties. The other major networks declined to fill in. Essentially collective action by the networks, including Fox.

https://t.co/h78fUx200J pic.twitter.com/20CHMpdTw3

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 18, 2026

Jacqui Heinrich, Fox News senior White House correspondent and current White House Correspondents’ Association president, issued the WHCA statement standing “in defense of our colleagues at CNN, MS NOW, and Politico who are being singled out for doing their jobs.” She said the action violates the First Amendment, that protections “do not depend on whether the president likes a news organization’s coverage,” and called for immediate restoration of access. She also discussed it on Fox News Sunday.

The Filing

In a joint statement, the three outlets said: "Without notice or process, the White House revoked our journalists' credentials because it objected to our reporting." They called the ban "a more direct assault on the First Amendment" than anything that preceded it, and "a more blatant violation of our most fundamental constitutional principles."

All three said they would keep covering the administration either way. Politico global editor-in-chief Jonathan Greenberger told staff in a memo that the outlet would "vigorously defend our First Amendment rights."

What The Courts Have Already Said

The administration has lost this argument twice before.

In 2018 the White House pulled the hard pass of CNN's Jim Acosta after a hostile press conference. Timothy Kelly, a Trump appointee, ordered it restored within days, finding the network likely to win on Fifth Amendment due process - the White House had given Acosta no notice and no chance to respond.

In 2025 the administration barred the Associated Press from the Oval Office and Air Force One after the wire service declined to adopt "Gulf of America." A district judge ordered full access restored. An appeals court then let the administration keep the AP out of small, restricted spaces, ruling only that it could not bar reporters from areas "generally open to the press," such as the briefing room.

Neither case went as far as this one. Acosta was one reporter and the AP kept its briefing-room seat. Three outlets barred from the entire complex is a larger question than any court has answered.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 10:15

Warner Bros, Paramount Jump After Settling Lawsuits With California And Other States

Update: (10:05am ET).

Well, that was fast: following a Friday leak that a settlement was imminent, moments ago, Bloomberg reported that Paramount Skydance has reached a settlement with California and other states suing to block its proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing a person familiar with the matter.

Settlement talks came to fruition over the weekend after four states that had opposed terms of a deal outlined with California conceded. The settlement, which is expected to be announced later today, paves the way for one of the largest mergers in Hollywood history.

Lawyers for the states worked all night on the agreement, the person said. Four states — Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut and Minnesota — had been holdouts on a possible settlement, but ultimately concluded the expense of the legal battle was not justifiable without California at the helm, the person said.

The states that held out longer did succeed over the past week in securing independent editorial boards for CBS and CNN as part of the deal, the person said.

The terms, summarized below, are said to include a financial penalty if the company fails to make good on a promise to distribute 30 films per year in theaters.

If the final terms are approved, the agreement would spare Paramount from having to pay late fees to Warner Bros. of $7 million a day, which were to begin on Oct. 1.

* * *

Earlier

Shares of Warner Bros. (WBD) are up 7% and Paramount Skydance (PSKY) gains 6% after the WSJ reported Friday that Paramount was in advanced settlement talks with the California AG Rob Bonta aimed at settling the California-led antitrust lawsuit that would block the company's proposed merger with Warner Bros. Discovery.

According to the report the two sides met over the weekend and discussed several potential concessions including

• $1.5bn investment by Paramount for production in California
• Maintain both studio lots & stay in California
• Potential sale of cable channels and creation of a board to maintain CNN’s editorial independence
• Financial penalties for producing less than 30 films per year. 

Bonta, a consortium of 12 states, and the Writers Guild of America, sued to block Paramount's $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. in July. Since then, the two sides have been locked in discussions to resolve the matter. The suing states fear further consolidation in the entertainment industry would reduce jobs and competition. Meanwhile, Paramount, led by CEO David Ellison, argues the combination will create a company large enough to successfully compete with the tech giants that have encroached on the entertainment industry.

The merger would bring the two eponymous Hollywood studios and under one roof, alongside the Paramount Plus and HBO Max streaming services and a slew of cable channels such as CNN, MTV, and TBS, among others.

One of the proposals in the negotiations includes establishing an oversight board to ensure CNN retains editorial independence. Other possibilities include the sale of certain cable channels, according to IBD

Another proposal would impose, according to Bloomberg, a $30 million fine on Paramount for each film that falls short of its previously pledged goal of releasing 30 movies per year in theaters. Ellison and Paramount originally made the pledge to get theater operators to support the merger. However, Bonta had been wary of Paramount's promise because he considered it difficult to enforce. The fine would seem to address that.

Under the terms of the discussions, Paramount would also be forced to sell its stake in the studio Miramax, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 10:00

South Korea Gives Almonty's Major Tungsten Mine Final Green Light To Supply The West

Bloomberg reports that Almonty Industries has secured final administrative approval from South Korean authorities to commercially process tungsten at its Sangdong mine. The approval positions Sangdong to begin supplying major Western customers and accelerate supply chain decoupling from China for the critical industrial metal. As Beijing restricts tungsten exports, the West's looming rearmament cycle adds urgency to securing conflict-free supplies.

South Korea granted Almonty inspection certificates last Thursday that authorize commercial operation of Sangdong's processing plant and crushing facilities. The approvals allow Almonty to turn mined ore into saleable tungsten concentrate for domestic customers and, more importantly, for Western buyers struggling to procure supplies amid a year and a half of China choking off global supplies.

Much of the Sangdong mine's output already has a buyer.

Almonty's long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, a member of Austria's Plansee Group, covers more than 90% of Sangdong's Phase I production. A news release in July announced an extension of the agreement to 21 years from first delivery and increased total contracted volume to 4.41 million metric tonne units (MTU), with minimum annual volumes of 210,000 MTU following ramp-up.

"With more than 90% of our Phase I production already contracted for 21 years from first delivery, the task in front of us is a simple one: operate the plant safely, ramp it steadily and deliver," CEO Lewis Black wrote in a press release.

Almonty noted in the press release, "The certification is the final step in Sangdong's transition from facility construction, trial operation and commissioning to commercial production."

Black continued, "The timing is not lost on us. Tungsten prices are at historic highs, China has tightened its grip on the material the Western industrial base depends on, and commencing January 2027, United States defense procurement rules will look all the way back to where the ore was mined."

"Sangdong is one of very few assets anywhere that can answer that question with a Western address and the scale to matter," Black added.

In its most recent presentation, Almonty describes itself as becoming the leading Western tungsten producer following Sangdong's Phase II expansion and an extension at Portugal's operating Panasqueira mine.

Almonty is pursuing that higher-value processing opportunity through Sangdong with an initial annual capacity of 4,000 tons, later expanding to 6,000 tons.

Last week, Almonty struck a deal with Rwanda's government, securing a foothold in Africa's largest tungsten-producing nation, while the miner also tapped its Spanish mine waste. These two moves show the fastest way to bring new supplies online, since waiting years for a new mine conflicts with the need to address supply troubles today. In other words, the West doesn't have time, and it needed new supplies yesterday.

Almonty shares have pulled back to around $14 after their latest rally stalled near $19. The stock remains roughly 40% below its April peak near $23.5 and has slipped into the $15 - $20 range.

In premarket shares are up 3.3%. 

Companies that can bring supply online sooner could capture a crucial early market advantage, such as Almonty, as it ramps up tungsten production at its South Korean mine and is now set to export to the West. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 09:15

Trump Pushes Zelensky To Halt Russia Refinery Attacks Amid High Diesel 

President Trump continues to seek to pressure Ukraine's Zelensky to halt long-range drone strikes on Russia's refineries, in a bid to calm rising diesel prices especially while the parallel Strait of Hormuz crisis persists.

Financial Times reports Monday that the US president just held a fresh phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart over the matter, where Zelensky was pressed over the strikes as Washington wants "Russian supplies to be able to reach the global market to provide relief" - also as cited in Bloomberg. News of the call broke just before Trump issued the following Truth Social statement early Monday:

The Truth Social words seem geared toward deflecting criticism that he's curtailing Ukraine's ability to fight and inflict pain on Russia. Trump says the Kremlin has "lost control of its Diesel Oil Industry" as a result of the war with Ukraine.

The president had starting on Sept.13 called on Kiev to de-escalate the oil infrastructure attacks, which have become so frequent as to be happening multiple times a week.

Zelensky "has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia," Trump told reporters while in Ireland over a week ago. "There are plenty of other targets. Don’t hit diesel fuel, because that’s hurting, that’s hurting the world."

Reuters in a fresh report observes: "Oil prices slid to their lowest in 11 days on Monday as investors ‌hoped for diplomatic progress on the Iran war due to this week's UN meeting, and eyed a partial recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia." The Iranian president and his delegation have (somewhat surprisingly) been issued visas and are expected to be present in New York City this week.

The report continues, "Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate crude touched their lowest since September 10 earlier on Monday. The Brent contract for November was at $101.75 a barrel at 0859 GMT, down $2.12, or 2%."

We noted previously that the IEA indicated US diesel prices surpassed $200 per barrel in early September, which was 94 percent above their pre-war level. Diesel and other similar fuels account for nearly 30 percent of global oil demand.

On Sunday we reported Ukraine Pounds Major Moscow Refinery As Global Diesel Crisis Threatens Economic Shock - which involved Ukrainian drones pounding Gazprom Neft-owned Moscow Oil Refinery, about 16 miles from the Kremlin. The facility has a processing capacity of around 245,000 barrels a day and supplies fuel to the surrounding metro area.

Zelensky had then boasted on X, "One of Russia's key oil industry facilities and the aggressor’s logistics facility were hit. These are billions of dollars that sustain the war machine. The systems used included FP-1, RZ-100, MICH-2000, Palianytsia, Vendetta, Liutyi, Bars, Flamingo, Sichen, and Pelican."

Insane video of a Russian air defence system Pantsir being deployed right above Moscows busiest highway right next to an oil refinery. pic.twitter.com/q6XebQV0A6

— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) September 21, 2026

It seems Trump will have an uphill battle trying to rein him in, especially given that European capitals may at the same time quietly be advising him the opposite. From Kiev's point of view, Washington is seeking to hobble the one aspect of its war strategy that's having a serious impact inside Russia.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 08:45

US Futures Rise, Near All-Time High, As Oil, Yields Drop On US-China Diplomacy Optimism

US futures are higher driven by Trump / Xi optimism around AI, Middle East, and trade with Middle East kinetic headlines over the weekend reflecting a pause to escalation. Sentiment was lifted by signs of progress on geopolitical issues: it’s a big week for talks, with Trump set for a summit with China’s Xi Jinping on Thursday and a possibility of talks with Iran’s president at the UN General Assembly. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.7%, rising to 7,770 and less than 1% from all time highs, as Nasdaq futures gain 1.1%, with tech strength on full display in APAC trade and also leading in premarket US trading with broad-based strength across Semis, Memory, and Mag7. Cyclicals ex-Energy are leading Defensives with the AI theme boosting Tech / Industrials within Cyclicals. Within Defensives, both healthcare and staples have pockets of strength as today looks like a broad-based rally in both the SPX and within Tech. WTI is below $100, dropping for a fourth day, fuel prices are lower, while bond traders reckon the Fed will succeed in its fight against inflation helping drive bond yields lower as the yield curve bull flattens, as the USD drops to session lows. This is bidding up risk assets with Equities leading. The Fed’s Goolsbee speaks 6.30am with previous speakers Fri / Sun offering a hawkish view which reiterates Warsh’s key points. According to JPM, given the macro and earnings strength, the market may be underpricing the number of hikes through YE27. There is little on today's calendar: we get the Aug Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (est. -0.04) at 8:30am ET.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher: Meta climbs about 2% after shares in the social media giant sold off on Friday. Tesla +1.5%, Alphabet +0.3%, Nvidia +0.8%, Amazon +0.7%, Microsoft +0.4%, Apple unchanged.

• Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rallying as Bitcoin trades above $84,000, near an eight-month high.
• Accenture (ACN) gains 4% after Anthropic partnered with the technology consulting company to test the safety of its advanced artificial intelligence models.
• Alkermes (ALKS) climbs 8% after announcing positive Phase 1b results for ALKS 7290 in adults With attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder.
• Arhaus (ARHS) rises 2% after Jefferies upgraded the furniture company to buy, writing that it has “newfound optimism on the retailer’s strategy to elevate brand awareness” and improve market share.
• Candel Therapeutics (CADL) gains 6% after BofA upgraded the biotech company to buy, citing optimism about a prostate cancer treatment.
• Ciena (CIEN) rises 5% after Evercore ISI raised the recommendation to outperform, citing the way data centers are boosting demand for optical networking equipment.
• Critical Metals (CRML) soars 24% after President Donald Trump said the he reached an agreement with Denmark over Greenland that would give the US “permanent control over security” of the Arctic island. In April, Critical Metals agreed to acquire European Lithium Ltd., giving it full ownership of a rare earth project in Greenland.
• Securitize (SECZ) rises 8% after Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with a recommendation of overweight as it sees the tokenization company benefiting from recent Securities and Exchange Commission guidance.
• Warner Bros. (WBD) is up 7% and Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is up 6% as the latter is in settlement talks with California officials over its planned acquisition of the former.

In other corporate news, settlement talks between Paramount Skydance and California officials over the planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery are said to include a financial penalty if the company fails to make good on a promise to distribute 30 films per year in theaters. Nscale, a developer of AI data centers that counts Nvidia and Microsoft among its partners, filed for an IPO. Novo Nordisk shares fell after the maker of Ozempic and Wegovy outlined its 2030 strategic ambitions, targeting revenue CAGR in line with industry peers. SoftBank is seeking the equivalent of more than $11 billion in what would be one of the biggest junk bond deals ever to fund OpenAI investments in OpenAI

Global markets are firmer across the board, helped by lower energy prices despite heightened geopolitical tensions over the weekend. Brent is down about 2% as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are parsed, while oil and LNG flows through Hormuz hit a six-month high. The Houthis said they attacked sensitive sites in Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Yanbu over the weekend, while US President Trump reportedly said that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran. One source of potential optimism is the commentary following US-China trade talks, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent describing talks as "successful" on trade and AI, while they agreed to hold another meeting on AI dialogue. For the Trump-Xi meeting - which is Xi’s first trip to the US in three years - trade, AI, critical minerals, industrial capacity, Taiwan, Ukraine and the Middle East are all on the bingo card.

The “feedback from the talks between China and the US is feeding a positive narrative as the week begins,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris. “That said, for me oil prices remain the key driver.”

“The market doesn’t really need any grand bargain,” says Panmure Liberum’s Mark Taylor, who thinks signs of “amicable agreement to manage tensions” will be enough to support risk appetite. “However, if fresh tariff threats, tech restrictions or hostile commentary resurface, it could quickly revive the trade-war risk aversion,” he adds.

For today, oil is also a major risk-on driver. In a sign that US naval protection and mine-clearing efforts in the Strait of Hormuz were paying off, a regional US commander said oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the waterway reached their highest level in six months, which almost helped push Brent below $100. Trump told Fox News he would “probably” be open to meeting his Iranian counterpart on the sidelines of the UN assembly this week.

Meanwhile, as BBG notes, the AI debate continues to rumble on, with the narrative to positive over the weekend, despite some news reports of a looming drop in memory prices. South Korea’s chip exports surged nearly 260% year-on-year in the first 20 days of September, to a record $34.1 billion. Accenture shares surged after it was chosen by Anthropic to test the safety of AI models, and SocGen said AI could help it make substantial cost savings.

But there’s still a lot of caution. Citi’s CEO said companies are racing to build up their defenses as AI models become more powerful and risk spurring cyber attacks. Today’s Big Take looks at how AI risk is making CIOs nervous. Elsewhere, opposition to data centers continues to mount: Data Center Watch said some 45 projects worth $68 billion were blocked or delayed by local pushback during the second quarter.

“AI is clearly becoming the next major area of strategic competition, but the fact that both sides are at least discussing a mechanism for dialogue is constructive,” said Mohit Mirpuri, senior partner at SGMC Capital Pte. “Markets don’t necessarily need Trump and Xi to resolve all their differences on Thursday, they mainly need reassurance that those differences remain manageable and don’t spill back into another trade or technology shock.”

And then there is inflation: price pressures continue to show up, with US retail diesel prices topping $6.50 a gallon for the first time, copper holding gains and food shock risks making headlines. Fed’s Kashkari said inflation remains too high and that pressures have broadened beyond the oil-price shock of the Iran war.

European shares gain as cooling oil and gas prices ease inflation concerns, while optimism ahead of this week’s China-US summit also lifts sentiment. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.9% with tech outperforming while healthcare falls after Novo Nordisk disappointed investors who were hoping to see more robust sales targets at the company’s capital markets day. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Kuehne+Nagel shares rise as much as 6% following the freight transportation firm’s collaboration with US tech behemoth Amazon, which will include providing assistance on logistics services and infrastructure for Amazon Web Services.
• Lundbeck gains as much as 4.6% after UBS raised its recommendation to buy from neutral, saying the company is potentially on track to turn around its R&D activities, and notes several upcoming key trial readouts.
• Lotus Bakeries gains as much as 6.2% after UBS raised its recommendation to buy from neutral, saying the company is potentially on track to turn around its R&D activities, and notes several upcoming key trial readouts
• Huber+Suhner shares rise as much as 5.6%, recouping the losses booked on Friday after the maker of telecommunication products held its capital markets day.
• Industrie De Nora shares rise as much as 5.9%, extending a rally after Italy agreed to cover full costs for its Gigafactory project, according to a statement.
• Novo shares fall as much as 7.7% after the Danish firm outlined its 2030 strategic ambitions at its Capital Markets Day in London.
• Ayvens shares drop as much as 6.2% after the fleet management company outlined its new 2029 strategic plan. Jefferies said the new targets are “more realistic than ambitious.”
• VW shares fall as much as 2.6% after Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded the German carmaker to hold from buy citing a profit warning that offset positives from a restructuring program.
• Craneware shares fall as much as 25% after the healthcare software company cut its revenue guidance for FY27 amid disruption caused by a cyber security incident.
• Ipsen drops as much as 7.8% after Amneal Pharmaceuticals received FDA approval for its generic version of somatuline.

Asian stocks advanced as an extended rally in semiconductor shares and a decline in oil prices supported investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose more than 1%, heading for a fourth straight session of gains. Samsung Electronics, TSMC and MediaTek were the top contributors to the gauge’s increase. South Korea’s Kospi was the best performer in the region. Markets in Japan were shut for a holiday. “Friday’s Wall Street session has aided sentiment in the AI names early, with the US semiconductor index rising close to 3%, led by the memory names as contract prices keep rising,” said Josh Gilbert, lead APAC analyst at Etoro. “Korea and Taiwan carry the most exposure to that, which is why we’ve seen buyers return to Asia, with flows coming back into the region after a run of selling.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up about 23% so far this year. However, the gauge has risen just 0.3% so far in September as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate hike, persistent inflation concerns, elevated bond yields and growing unease over the

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is near unchanged. USD/JPY is back on a 157 handle after Friday’s reported rate check.

In rates, treasuries trade near session highs in early US session, supported by steeper gains across European bond markets as oil prices slide, leaving Brent crude on track for the longest run of declines since June. Energy prices are easing amid diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war and signs cargoes are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury coupon auctions of 2-, 5- and 7-year notes commence Tuesday. US yields are 3bp to 4bp richer across the curve with front-end lagging slightly, flattening 2s10s and 2s5s spreads by ~1.5bp. 10-year is around 4.955% with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 1.5bp and 3.5bp. In Europe, French bonds outperform, moving the French-German 10-year yield spread back below 100bp; 105bps spread reached Friday was the widest since 2012. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few deals already.  Dealers expect around $40 billion of new issuance this week, possibly including Sysco Corp., which is preparing a roughly $17 billion bond sale. This week’s Treasury note auctions include $69 billion 2-year Tuesday, $70 billion 5-year Wednesday and $44 billion 7-year Thursday.

are on the decline with the US 10-year borrowing cost down 4bps at 4.96% - note, cash trade was closed overnight due to the Japanese market holiday. Yields in the UK and Germany are also lower, with the pullback in energy outweighing mounting political risks for the latter. French 10-year bonds are outperforming after being trounced on Friday and the OAT-bund yield spread is back below 100 basis points.

In commodities, WTI crude futures are down almost 3%, Brent is down more than 2% as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are parsed, while oil and LNG flows through Hormuz hit a six-month high. Spot gold is down 0.8%. The crypto rally is extending with Bitcoin up 4.7% and at levels not seen since January. 

US economic data slate includes August Chicago Fed national activity index at 8:30 a.m. Fed speaker slate is blank for Monday.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Oil prices slid to their lowest in 11 days on Monday as investors ‌hoped for diplomatic progress on the Iran war due to this week's UN meeting, and eyed a partial recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia. Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate crude touched their lowest since September 10 earlier on Monday. The Brent contract for November was at $101.75 a barrel at 0859 GMT, down $2.12, or 2%. RTRS
• The Iran war has created a new shortage on the oil market. This time the scarce commodity isn’t just crude—it is the ships that carry it. Drone attacks that shut Saudi Arabia’s bypass pipeline earlier this month have forced more crude back through the Strait of Hormuz and onto a tanker fleet already stretched thin. WSJ
• The US and China have agreed to set up an AI dialogue ahead of a high-stakes summit on Thursday in Washington between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said the two sides had negotiated the creation of an AI dialogue mechanism, which was floated when Trump met Xi in Beijing in May, in talks with Chinese vice-premier He Lifeng in New York on Sunday. FT
• China is more than halfway toward its pledge to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans this year, but a commitment to purchase at least another $17 billion of American farm products has largely stalled. BBG
• OpenAI projects it will burn through almost $280bn by the end of 2030, highlighting its huge long-term funding needs as the AI company pushes for a valuation of more than $1.2tn in fresh investment talks. The company expects negative free cash flow of $278bn over five years from 2026 to 2030 as it invests aggressively to expand its access to computing power. FT
• Friedrich Merz vowed to stay on as German chancellor after his CDU suffered heavy losses in state elections. The party won just 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, shutting it out of a regional assembly for the first time in the country’s postwar history. BBG
• SoftBank’s seeking the equivalent of over $11 billion for AI investments in what would be one of the biggest junk bond deals ever, people familiar said. BBG
• Wall Street banks are expecting the US to borrow up to $1tn over the next year by selling short-term Treasury bills as part of a growing dependence on quick-maturing debt that leaves Washington vulnerable to rising interest rates. FT
• The Fed’s Austan Goolsbee warned the central bank cannot ignore repeated and persistent supply shocks, and must respond in a way that may cause economic hardship. BBG
• Investors are betting on a Fed win the inflation fight, turning bullish on front-end Treasuries. Two-year yields remain well above the central bank’s range, offering scope for the securities to rally if inflation eases or rate hikes are less than priced. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with cautious gains seen for most of the region ahead of this week's key meetings in the US, including the UN General Assembly and the Trump-Xi summit, while there are also thinned conditions with the closure of Japanese markets through to Wednesday. ASX 200 was uneventful amid mixed M&A related headlines and further RBA rate hike calls, with CBA bringing forward its rate hike call to September from November, while ANZ expects hikes in both September and November. KOSPI outperformed as tech stocks took impetus from the advances in the Nasdaq last Friday. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mildly higher ahead of the Trump-Xi summit this week and after US and Chinese officials held talks in New York ahead of the leaders' meeting, with China's top trade negotiator describing the discussions as 'not bad', while state media noted the sides had frank, in-depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues of mutual concern, as well as holding dialogue on AI-related issues.

Top Asian News

• Japan's government will work with major machinery manufacturers to collect machine-learning data for physical AI applications such as autonomous robots and assigning unique IDs to factory equipment to enable cross-vendor data aggregation, according to Nikkei.
• Japan is poised to ease restrictions on regional bank loans for AI and energy projects, Nikkei reported.
• China's CPC Politburo met to discuss draft documents to be submitted to the Fifth Plenary Session (26th-29th October), with Chinese President Xi presiding.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.0%) are firmer across the board, helped by lower energy prices despite heightened geopolitical tensions over the weekend. The Houthis said they attacked sensitive sites in Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Yanbu over the weekend, while US President Trump reportedly said that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran. One source of potential optimism is the commentary following US-China trade talks, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent describing talks as "successful" on trade and AI, while they agreed to hold another meeting on AI dialogue. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Tech tops the sector pile, with Industrials and Basic Resources following closely behind. To the downside is Health Care, with Optimised Personal Care and Energy rounding out the sector laggards. Explaining the underperformance in Health Care is the downbeat reaction in Novo shares (-5%) after they announced their 2030 ambitions. The drugmaker plans to launch over 5 blockbusters by the end of 2030 and targets pipeline sales of over DKK 150bln in 2035.

Top European News

• German Chancellor Merz vowed to stay on despite a ‘disaster’ in regional elections with partial results showing his CDU at just under the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while the centre-left SPD is projected as 35.5% of votes and the far-right AfD is expected to get 37.0% of votes, according to exit polls. Merz's conservatives are projected at 20% of votes in the Berlin state election, while the Left Party is seen at 24.5%, SPD is seen at 12%, and AfD is seen at 16% in Berlin.
• Scope downgraded France’s long-term ratings to 'A+' from 'AA-' and revised the outlook to stable; DBRS affirmed France at 'AA', lowered the French outlook to negative.

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are mixed against a flat USD this morning. The Antipodeans are mildly firmer, benefiting from the risk tone, whilst the Loonie and JPY are the marginal laggards.
• DXY currently holds within 100.20 to 100.37 range, and towards the highs made post-FOMC last week. Newsflow for the Dollar has been lacking this morning; oil prices are slipping off highs, despite ongoing supply disruptions, as attention turns to the UN General Assembly Council this week, alongside the summit between President Trump and Xi. The current mood between the two is positive; Trump recently suggested that he and Xi get on “very well”, whilst Treasury Sec Bessent suggested they had a very successful engagement with the Chinese on trade and AI.
• JPY is a touch lower this morning, giving back some of the strength made last Friday. The Nikkei reported that the BoJ conducted a “rate check” on that Friday, which helped curtail some of JPY pressure seen following the Bank’s dovishly perceived rate decision. This makes evident that the Japanese officials remain ready and active in the market to keep USD/JPY from approaching the 160.00 mark once again. If market expectations of a Fed-BoJ divergence continue to grow, then it may prove to be difficult for Japan to significantly prevent another bout of upside in the pair. Do note that Japan is away on holiday and returns on Thursday; as such, the lower-volume environment could provide a decent opportunity for the MoF to enact some intervention.
• EUR is essentially flat vs USD, despite political uncertainty from within the region. Firstly, two regional elections were held in Germany over the weekend; the ruling CDU party performed terribly, falling short of the 5% threshold to enter state parliament in one state. There is now mounting pressure on current Chancellor Merz to resign, though he announced that he will stay in office and “fight on”. The state election results point out the issues the German population is currently facing, but for now, it will remain a regional problem. It will likely have little impact on the federal government itself; as such, the EUR is little changed.

Fixed Income

• USTs (+8 ticks) are stronger this morning, benefiting from 1) falling energy prices and 2) markets awaiting the US-China meeting at the White House on Thursday. On the first point, supply disruptions remain, and Trump recently said he is thinking of “blowing up” all of Iran. It seems as if markets are shifting their attention to the UNGA this week, with Trump reportedly set to meet Gulf leaders and then President Xi. There may be growing hopes that a framework agreement/deal can be ironed out; recent reports have noted that Pakistan’s Interior Minister has travelled to Iran.
• Yields are lower across the curve, with very slight underperformance at the belly. The US 10-year (4.96%) has now slipped below the key 5.00% mark, given the aforementioned energy dynamics. A constructive UNGA mood and/or geopolitical progress could help the 10-year continue to slip to near-term lows, with 4.92% a likely area of support (low from 18 Sep).
• Gilts (+72 ticks) outperform vs peers, and currently hold towards the upper end of an 85.28 to 85.76 range. UK-specific news flow has been focused on pre-budget speculation around housing and CGT, but with action in UK paper today ultimately driven by energy dynamics. On trade relations, UK PM Burnham is set to meet US President Trump this week. Reports suggest that the talks between the pair will focus on the Middle East, energy costs and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• EGBs dominate the fixed income space this morning. Bunds after the latest state parliamentary elections, and OATs after sovereign updates and the latest fiscal disclosure. However, despite these points, EGBs are firmer with the marked energy pullback providing relief and some caveats/points to look to with reference to Bunds and OATs specifically.
• For Germany, the Grand Coalition’s CDU had a disaster in the two elections, while their SPD partner fared somewhat better. Within Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU are set to come in below the 5% threshold to enter state parliament, while AfD won with 38.2% but PSD a near second on 35.5%; a point that provides some relief, as there is no appetite to work with AfD, and thus SPD will likely lead a SPD-Green-Die Linke combination of some description in the region. For now, we await the final results of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania to confirm if CDU has missed the threshold. Thereafter, we look for signs of more pressure on Chancellor Merz and whether the Grand Coalition may look for an alternative to him, a ‘Kanzlertausch’, given the September regional election outcomes and his personal low approval rating.
• Turning to OATs, firstly digesting the trend cut to negative from stable at DBRS, due to “the risk of the government failing to address fiscal imbalances is increasing, leading to a continued rise in the government debt ratio over the medium term”. Additionally, Scope cut France to A+ (prev. AA-), primarily due to the deteriorating fiscal outlook.

Commodities

• WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are softer after initially advancing at the open on weekend escalation, including a Houthi attack on a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu and Trump reportedly saying he was considering “blowing up” Iran. Prices subsequently reversed as the immediate escalation failed to develop further and Trump also signalled openness to meeting Iran’s President. Further, there may be some hopes that the Trump-Xi meeting this week may help simmer down some geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This morning’s picture remains mixed in terms of newsflow: the IRGC said it shot down a US MQ-1 drone over Hormuz and warned the war “is not over”, while Pakistan’s Interior Minister is heading to Tehran, with conflicting reports over whether the trip involves US-Iran mediation. WTI Nov trades close to the bottom of a USD 93.46-97.22/bbl range, while Brent Dec nearer to the lower end of a USD 96.97-100.22/bbl range. Dutch TTF is sharply softer (-3.8%) alongside the broader pullback in the energy complex within a EUR 76.85-80.55/MWh range.
• Precious metals are softer as the Dollar remains firm in the face of lower oil prices. Spot gold trades around USD 4,350/oz within a USD 4,342-4,383/oz range, and with the 100 DMA at USD 4,319/oz today. Spot silver similarly trades flat on either side of its 100 DMA (USD 66.40/oz) in a narrow USD 65.73-67.05/oz parameter.
• Base metals are firmer despite the cautious broader backdrop, extending some of last week’s gains. COMEX copper trades near the upper end of a USD 6.60-6.66/lb range, and 3M LME copper trades towards the top end of a USD 14,540.50-14,688.00/t parameter, with the complex supported by the generally positive tone across Chinese markets ahead of the Trump-Xi summit and after constructive US-China trade discussions in New York.
• Kazakhstan oil shipments to Ust-Luga were recorded at 200k metric tons in August, according to Interfax.
• French Finance Minister Lescure said France’s strategic oil stocks are full.
• Naftogaz said ORLEN (PKN PW) will supply up to USD 500mln of petroleum products to Ukraine to stabilise the market and deliver three LNG cargoes in Q1 2027.
• South Africa's Pretoria is reportedly looking to leverage its role as a platinum supplier to help integrate into the US and China, Semafor reported.

Trade/Tariffs

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they had a very successful engagement with the Chinese on trade and AI, while they agreed to hold another meeting on AI dialogue and the US suggested a notification system between the two countries. Bessent separately commented that he is likely to meet the Chinese delegation in two months and they discussed extending the trade truce, although no pact was reached, according to FT citing an interview following Bessent's meeting with Vice Premier He Lifeng.
• USTR Greer said they implemented a board of trade, with the US and Chinese teams to continue working on a board of trade agreement, while the board of trade from the Chinese side is likely to include consumer goods and low-tech items.
• China's top trade negotiator Li said trade talks are ‘not bad’ and that talks will continue on Monday among the working group, while he confirmed that both sides discussed AI along with trade and investment.
• Chinese state media noted that China and the US conducted frank, in-depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues of mutual concern, while they held dialogue on issues related to AI.
• US and China were reported on Friday to be discussing cutting tariffs on US LNG ahead of Xi's visit, with potential USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cuts, while the visit could bring broader energy and agricultural deals.
• China reportedly purchases more US soy cargoes ahead of the President Trump-Xi meeting.
• Indian Trade Minister said a trade agreement with New Zealand will provide duty-free access to New Zealand for 100% of India's exports.

Central Banks

• Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) said inflation remains too high and that price pressures have expanded beyond the oil-price shock from the Iran war and are affecting the broader economy.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US President Donald Trump reportedly said on Sunday that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran as he left the Camp David retreat a day early to return to the White House, while Fox News reporter Yungst said Trump told him during a phone call that "very big things are going to be happening" soon. Furthermore, Trump said his options are ‘wiping out’ the regime, letting it ‘rot economically’ under naval blockade, or striking a deal, according to Fox News and The Telegraph.
• US President Trump said on Friday that the Iran War will end soon, adding that once the war ends, US gasoline prices will revert to prior levels and could even fall further. US President Trump confirmed on Friday the US is talking to the Houthis, saying they want a deal, while adding "we'll see" on whether to annihilate Iran.
• US CENTCOM commander Cooper said oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two weeks reached the highest levels in six months. More US troops had reportedly died amid the Iran war than the Pentagon disclosed publicly, according to a report on Friday in the Washington Post.
• Pakistani Interior Minister travelled to Iran today, IRNA reported. Tasnim later reported that the trip is unrelated to Iran-US matters and will focus on bilateral relations and cooperation, with the report adding that Pakistan is not carrying a message between Iran and the US.
• Iranian officials conveyed their conditions to mediators for re-engaging in negotiations for ending the war with the US, while the conditions include ending the war on all fronts and the naval blockade, as well as unfreezing Iranian funds and they also want an end to the war between Saudi Arabia and Yemeni Houthis.
• IRGC spokesman said all of the US' superior technologies pale in comparison to Iran's offensive and defensive capabilities, adding that Tehran are defining the new regime in the region, not America, and the war is not over and continues. The spokesman added that the IRGC has prepared itself for a long-term war and that they have new targets and weapons ready if the US launches a new attack.
• IRGC said it shot down a US MQ-1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
• UKMTO received a report of an incident involving a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, reported at 07:30 UTC. A tanker conducting an inbound transit was struck by an unknown projectile.
• Qatar's PM Al-Thani said Gulf states need to cooperate to restore regional stability and help reach a settlement between the US and Iran. It was separately reported that Qatar's Energy Minister said US Treasury Secretary Bessent is "wrong" in saying that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will be worthless in two years.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Press Secretary Peskov said there have been no progress in negotiations on Ukraine yet but remains open to further talks, IFX reported.
• UK Burnham hopes to build bridges with US President Trump at their first meeting and wants to press the case for the US to help Ukraine with air-defence systems.
• Moscow Oil Refinery was hit during a drone attack that was part of Ukraine's largest barrage this year.

Geopolitics: Other

• US, Denmark and Greenland reached a security agreement that expands the US’s role on the Arctic island to end the row that threatened NATO.
• North Korea launched two missiles off its eastern coast on Sunday. It was also reported that North Korea rejected an IAEA resolution on its nuclear program and vowed to keep its status as a nuclear-armed state.
• Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi and US Defence Secretary Hegseth agreed in a phone call to further strengthen security ties.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Aug Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.04, prior -0.08

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For 2026 standards, its been a relatively quiet weekend news wise but yesterday saw more, albeit expected, heavy defeats for the ruling CDU in two German state elections with a surge in support for the far right AfD in one and the far left Die Linke in the other. Chancellor Merz called the early results "a disaster" but vowed to press on with reforms. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD won 38.3% of the vote, roughly double its support from the previous election in 2021 and enough to make it the largest party in the state even if a coalition to keep them out of power is likely. The shock was that the CDU didn't even make the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the first time in the country’s post-World War II history. So this will create huge amounts of political pressure on the Chancellor and raise questions about the reform agenda.  

Meanwhile, in Berlin, the Left Party (Die Linke) emerged as the biggest force with 25.3%, ahead of the CDU and Greens. The mainstream parties seem to be caught in a continued pincer movement. On the far-right the AfD continues to gain support on anti-immigration and anti-establishment themes, particularly in eastern Germany, while the Left appears to have capitalised on concerns over housing affordability, living costs and social inequality. For markets, the immediate implication is not a change in national policy, but a further weakening of Germany’s political centre and another reminder that the forces driving political polarisation across Europe remain alive and well.

Also over the weekend, President Trump announced that the US, Denmark and Greenland had reached an agreement that would allow a significant expansion of the US military presence on the island, with Trump describing the deal as giving the US “permanent control over security” in Greenland. The agreement falls well short of Trump’s earlier ambitions to acquire Greenland, while Danish and Greenlandic leaders stressed that it explicitly recognises Greenland’s right to self-determination and Danish sovereignty. Taken at face value, if this agreement holds it actually reduces event risk, as the Greenland issue could easily have come back to be a high tension hotspot in the months ahead.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets are advancing led by technology shares supported by optimism from US-China trade talks ahead of the much anticipated summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping later this week. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.79%) is outperforming with Japanese markets closed for the three-day Silver Week holiday. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.57%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.55%) and the CSI 300 (+0.42%) are all trading moderately higher. S&P 500 (+0.41%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.54%) and Stoxx (+0.55%) futures are all higher. Brent is -2.21% lower at $101.65/bbl which is helping. It's been above $100/bbl again since September 9th, and although US cash Treasury trading hasn't commenced due to the Japanese holiday, US and European bond futures are all notably higher this morning.  

Moving on, the week ahead brings a mix of economic data, central bank decisions, lots of Fed speak, and geopolitical events. The first read of the September PMIs across the major economies on Wednesday should provide the most timely update on global growth momentum, while investors will also be watching policy decisions from the Norges Bank, Riksbank and SNB on Thursday with their hike probabilities according to futures at 62%, 21% and 5% respectively. Elsewhere, attention will turn to the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi on Thursday which will likely garner a lot of headlines. Indeed they already have overnight as discussed above. See our Geopolitics team's preview of the summit here. We also have opening week of the UN General Assembly debate in New York.  
In the US, the focus will increasingly shift towards next Friday’s payrolls report, which will be the most important data release before the

October FOMC meeting. Ahead of that, markets will be very keen to hear from a heavy schedule of Fed speakers throughout the week. These comments will frame last week’s FOMC meeting, where policymakers delivered a widely expected rate increase but signalled a more hawkish policy outlook. The updated projections showed a strong majority of officials anticipating further tightening, while Chair Warsh emphasised that the Committee still sees limited evidence that policy is meaningfully restrictive.  

Fed communication begins today with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee alongside the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Tomorrow, investors receive the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. On the policy front, Fed Vice Chairs Williams and Jefferson are due to speak. Our economists view Williams as one of the four officials who are still expected to see the Fed easing by the end of next year, so any hints on that outlook will be closely scrutinised.  

Wednesday’s main event will be the September flash PMIs. Our economists expect the US manufacturing PMI to edge up to 54.0 from 53.9, while the services gauge is forecast to ease slightly to 56.1 from 56.5. Given the recent focus on AI-related investment and broader capex trends, these surveys will be watched closely for signs that business activity remains resilient. Fed Governor Barr is also due to speak. Investors will also be watching Wednesday's Treasury buyback announcement ahead of Thursday's 20-30yr operation, particularly after last month's decision to at least double the size of long-end buybacks.  

Thursday sees August new home sales and initial jobless claims. Last week continuing claims hit their lowest since January 2024. Fed speakers include Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson, offering further opportunities for markets to assess where officials stand after last week’s hawkish meeting. Friday’s US durable goods report will be particularly important from a growth perspective. Our economists expect headline orders to rise by 0.6% month-on-month, with orders excluding transportation and core capital goods both expected to increase by 1.1%. The data should provide one of the clearest indications yet of whether the recent strength in business investment is being sustained. Williams and Hammack are also due to speak on Friday.  

Recapping last week now and it was a story of two halves that left most assets little changed from where they started the week. The first half saw a fresh rise in energy prices that led to renewed fears of stagflation, and we even saw the 10yr Treasury yield close above 5% for the first time since 2007. But on Wednesday, the Fed delivered their first rate hike since 2023, which seems to help ease inflation fears with a delay but the reality was that energy price falls were the more important theme reversing the yield spikes.  

Brent crude oil prices were down -0.71% on the week (-0.91% Friday), closing at $103.87/bbl after approaching $110/bbl in the first half of the week. That marked a reversal after a +17.1% jump over the previous two weeks. While oil prices stabilised, sovereign bond yields still extended their rise overall. For instance, the 10yr Treasury yield reached an intraday peak of 5.04% last Tuesday, before ending the week at 5.00%, up +2.9bps on the week (+6.5bps Friday). Meanwhile in Germany, the 10yr bund yield also hit an intraday peak of 3.57% on the Wednesday, before ending the week -1.4bps overall at 3.52%. French bonds underperformed, with the 10yr spread over bunds closing above 100bps on Friday for the first time since 2012. In absolute terms, the 10yr French yield also hit a post-2008 high on Friday of 4.56%.  

This backdrop meant equities saw modest losses last week, with the S&P 500 down just -0.08% (+0.17% Friday). The index was boosted by some of the big tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 up +1.05% last week, marking its 4th consecutive weekly gain. However, small cap stocks struggled by comparison, with the Russell 2000 down -1.50% last week. After the AI doomerism of the previous weekend, the Philly Semiconductor index (SOX) closed up +0.73% after being down nearly -6% on Monday. Meanwhile in Europe, there were slightly larger declines, with the STOXX 600 down -0.57% (-1.11% Friday).

Elsewhere, there were some sizeable moves in FX last week, with the dollar index up +1.11% after the Fed’s hike, marking its biggest weekly gain since June. Conversely, the Japanese Yen weakened -2.08% against the US Dollar last week, which marked its biggest weekly decline since October 2025. That followed the BoJ’s 25bp rate hike, but the move was already priced in and two members voted against the hike, so markets interpreted the decision in a dovish light.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 08:36

Same Crowd, New Apocalypse...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

They received a new brief. The instant the AI-doom circuit kicked into gear the same 'protesters' who spent years on climate, oil and "Palestine" are back on the street with fresh banners declaring 'the end is nigh'.

The clips looping across X could be any march of the last decade. Same wardrobe. Same slogans. Same dead-eyed rhythm.

Only the monster changed.

And just like that the Retard Brigade has moved on from "Palestine" and onto the robots.

It's actually hilarious.... pic.twitter.com/SToBv9kE4B

— Dave Rubin (@RubinReport) September 18, 2026

Yesterday, dozens of them marched from OpenAI's Mission Bay headquarters to Anthropic's offices beside Salesforce's Dreamforce crowd, then on to San Francisco City Hall. 'Stop the AI Race' wanted Mayor Daniel Lurie to declare a local "AI state of emergency." Chalk on the pavement read "Extinction is on the table." Staff at both labs were told to quit.

Organiser Michaël Trazzi said industry leaders had asked Washington to regulate and been turned down. Fellow organiser Hunter Glenn told reporters, "I was pretty scared about the possibility of extinction for awhile," and called AI safety a bipartisan cause.

Other demonstrations dubbed 'PauseAI' and 'Pull The Plug' assembled outside Downing Street in London after Anthropic alignment lead Evan Hubinger said he personally believed there was a greater than 10 percent chance AI could "kill all humans" within a decade.

Their line: "10% chance of extinction? 100% chance of resistance."

I wish they'd make their minds up -

I thought climate change was going to wipeout the world !

— LindaTG1810 (@ltg1810) September 18, 2026

??Suddenly, Gaza is out and AI doomsday is in for the professional protest class. Which of course means all the leftwing billionaire and Chinese money has switched causes.

Funny how this all works, huh? pic.twitter.com/47kY2pkvnZ

— ??David Blackmon?? (@EnergyAbsurdity) September 18, 2026

These groups are full of pliable, already-petrified people who need the next extinction story the way some people need a weather report. Climate was going to cook them. A virus was going to finish them. Oil was going to drown them. "Palestine" was going to moralise them. Now the robots will delete them. They are desperate to believe anything will wipe them out, because a life without a scheduled apocalypse leaves them with nothing to virtue chant about.

That is why the propaganda works. They live wracked with fear and stay wide open to scaremongering on every topic conceivable. Hand them some dodgy stats and a Netflix documentary and they will screech into the streets. The content of the threat is secondary.

?.?.

The retards are on the march. As usual.

The Commies have made this "the current thing."

And, for them, the issue is never the issue. The issue is the revolution. pic.twitter.com/ok4UXDSvCJ

— GuardAmerican? (@GuardAmerican) September 18, 2026

Braindead protestors at it again. Look at the profile for this @Channel4News in the UK. It's literally ALL fear mongering.

Protestors in 2026:
-No Kings
-Free Palestine
-Reflecting pool
-ICE
-It's OK to kill your kids

Now: AI is going to kill us. pic.twitter.com/juDOWLlaXU

— Topher (@TopherGotWifi) September 18, 2026

They really are NPC robots getting a new chip inserted.

— Neal Asher (@nealasher) September 18, 2026

"Ima feeling hela cute today, gonna protest the future!"

— baranoww (@WBaranowski) September 18, 2026

Yup.... https://t.co/H6Zvy22Ype pic.twitter.com/IxqDtixC8a

— Tim J Baxter. Get Off My Beach! (@TJ69B) September 19, 2026

A U.S. pause would hand China the century's defining technology and freeze the labs already winning. Sam Altman went to Congress in 2023 asking for tighter rules after OpenAI already held a commanding lead - regulatory capture with a halo. OpenAI withheld GPT-2 in 2019 as too dangerous. It was fully out months later. No measurable harm.

Every AI doomsday call since the 1950s has missed. Europe sold GDPR as privacy and now hosts none of the world's dominant labs, because the rules decide who gets to build.

Computer science professor Pedro Domingos noted, "Europe actually passed this AI Act some years ago that puts draconian restrictions on AI," he said. "Europe is now out of the AI race. I hope we're not gonna let the same thing happen in America."

On the labs driving the panic: "I am much more worried about Anthropic than I am worried about AI." And: "These people think the apocalypse is coming... There's an AI god that's being born and they are the parents of that god."

WATCH: Professor @pmddomingos: "Europe actually passed this AI Act some years ago that puts draconian restrictions on AI.... Europe is now out of the AI race. I hope we're not gonna let the same thing happen in America." https://t.co/xfAkAu7pNN pic.twitter.com/sslfJEkvew

— Innovation Council (@innovationcncl) September 18, 2026

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang gave the extinction industry a simpler number. There is a "0% chance" the world ends in 2030, however the risks are framed. "2030 is not going to be the end of the world." The man selling the chips that power the boom is not losing sleep over the apocalypse.

Jensen Huang is giving the AI doomsday crowd a reality check.

The Nvidia CEO says there's a "0% chance" the world ends in 2030, regardless of how people frame the risks of artificial intelligence.

"2030 is not going to be the end of the world."

Apparently, the man selling the...

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 19, 2026

Scott Jennings had already mapped the rotation. "It's always the same apocalyptic crowd moving from one issue to the next. Responsible guardrails are one thing, but handicapping American innovation while China speeds ahead with zero regulation isn't sound policy - it's just foolish."

If the U.S. wins the AI race, this will be President Trump's greatest legacy. What I see right now is a lot of people trying to slow him down who don't want him to have that legacy. pic.twitter.com/vP6nhbnLNM

— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) September 16, 2026

Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale told Jesse Watters the scare is not civic caution. It is a coordinated campaign. "These guys don't believe in God. They're atheists, but they've created something they believe is God," Watters said, laying out Lonsdale's point.

"This is their Messiah, and this is their end of the world." Lonsdale urged, adding "There is a coordinated campaign to make the American people afraid."

Lonsdale outlined how an industrial revolution is coming that would be "amazing for America if we get it right." The people trying to stop it, he said, "hate America."

Speaking of which, Bill Gates is also back on the emergency circuit calling AI an "alien intelligence."

"I don't think any government is nearly as deep on this as they have to be," he told Reuters. "Governments are way behind on this one."

Then the Hollywood script: "There's all sorts of movies where some aliens are coming, and magically the US and China and everybody comes together to solve the problem. AI is kind of like this alien intelligence. It's here, and we better do like it shows in those movies."

On a podcast he went further: "It's not the role of the industry to self-regulate or understand the whole-of-society impact that comes out of AI."

He wants a permanent cross-border watchdog stitched from nuclear inspections, aviation rules and ozone treaties - and a meeting with Xi Jinping.

His foundation pledged $1 billion over two years to spread AI through schools, clinics and farms in the same news cycle. Alarm in one hand. Pipeline in the other.

Bernie Sanders appeared at the Future of Life Institute's "Pro-Human Assembly" in Washington. Obama's orbit told Democrats to get "on top of" a technology "moving very fast in private hands." Netflix dropped an AI-doom documentary a producer compared to "An Inconvenient Truth" or "The Social Dilemma." Same template. New monster.

President Trump has already rejected the slowdown. "We're leading China in AI," he said. "Whoever wins AI, wins." A lot of the horror stories being shopped around, he added, "won't happen."

The protest addicts started marching the minute the fear campaign was turned up because they were already waiting for the next wipeout. The malleable mob arriving right on schedule - to demand Washington park a still-American lead under a global committee while Beijing keeps training.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 08:20

Westinghouse Eyes $50 Billion IPO As America Builds Valuations Faster Than Reactors

Westinghouse, the nuclear business that helped blow a hole in Toshiba’s balance sheet, is preparing for a different headline: a potential valuation above $50 billion.

Bloomberg reports that the American nuclear king could publicly file for an IPO as soon as October. It submitted confidential paperwork in July, and while nothing is set in stone yet, the proposed valuation would crown a wild rehabilitation.

The collapse came in 2017, when Toshiba-owned Westinghouse filed for Chapter 11 under the weight of cost overruns at the miserably managed Vogtle and Summer projects in Georgia and South Carolina. Brookfield Business Partners and institutional investors bought it out of bankruptcy in 2018 in a $4.6 billion deal.

Brookfield spent the next several years rehabilitating the company and bolting on new acquisitions. Westinghouse acquired Rolls-Royce’s systems and services business, Laveer Engineering, BHI Energy and Spain’s Tecnatom. By 2022, Brookfield counted eight completed acquisitions since 2019.

The revamped business emphasized technology and services, instead of emphasizing project management, which came with the construction risks that sank it under Toshiba.

Cameco arrived through a second transaction in 2023. It paid $2.1 billion for 49% while Brookfield and friends took the other 51%. The final enterprise valuation was $8.2 billion, including $3.8 billion of debt retained by Westinghouse.

At $50 billion, the headline valuation would be roughly eleven times the 2018 deal.

Recall the October 2025 agreement between Cameco, Brookfield and the US government that brought up the IPO idea in the first place. The program contemplated up to ten AP1000 reactors and at least $80 billion of investment, supported by federal financing and permitting assistance.

Everything seems to be moving along swimmingly, however, the whole point was to start putting some steel in the ground, which seems to have been forgotten about at this point...

We have just recently exceeded 1,000 days since the US pledged to contribute to the effort of tripling global nuclear capacity

Unfortunately, America is leading in only one category: nuclear-grade talk

The structure of the US arguably makes this one of the most challenging… https://t.co/qXJIyvV6nK pic.twitter.com/oJb7ndG6A2

— Steffan Szumowski (@UnoMasReactor) September 8, 2026

When the deal was originally announced back then, the USG’s participation interest would vest after a final investment decision and binding agreements committing it to at least $80 billion of reactor projects. Once vested, it would receive 20% of cumulative cash distributions above $17.5 billion.

An IPO would convert that interest into a five-year warrant to acquire equity equivalent to 20% of the company’s public value above $17.5 billion, measured at exercise.

With the interest vested, Washington could require an IPO on or before January 2029 if the opening valuation reached at least $30 billion. Nothing's been discussed yet to indicate that specific trigger was pulled to instigate the current IPO.

Questions still remain as to the exact ownership structure of Westinghouse post-IPO, but on their 2026Q2 call, Cameco CEO Tim Getzler indicated ownership will still stay with them and Brookfield: “We and Brookfield control Westinghouse today; we don't expect that to change”

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 07:45

Investor Day Bust: Novo Nordisk Plunges As Wall Street's Turnaround Hopes Fade

Novo Nordisk shares tumbled as much as 7.7% in Copenhagen trading after Wall Street analysts questioned the Danish drugmaker's turnaround efforts amid the loss of its GLP-1 lead to Eli Lilly & Co.

At its capital markets day earlier in London, Novo outlined plans for more than five blockbuster launches and over $23 billion in new sales in the coming years. But that comes as its obesity-market lead has been surrendered to Eli Lilly, and analysts were hoping for more commentary from management about turnaround efforts as the stock is down 18% on the year.

"Investors are selling the shares because they are not seeing concrete news that could drive the stock higher," Nordnet investment economist Per Hansen wrote.

CEO Mike Doustdar told analysts, "We need to work harder, and we will." However, much of the optimism from capital markets a few years ago about Novo leading the GLP-1 race has all but faded.

Much of Novo's medium-term outlook rests on CagriSema, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Michael Shah and Christos Nikoletopoulos. That treatment has already disappointed Wall Street multiple times, including failing to match Lilly's Zepbound in a head-to-head trial. Other potential growth drivers remain earlier in development and carry a higher risk of failure

From the peak of the GLP-1 craze in mid-2024, Novo shares in Copenhagen have plunged a staggering 74%, with shares stabilizing since August 2025.

"The event came amid mounting investor pressure for clarity beyond obesity drugs Wegovy and Ozempic as Novo's semaglutide patent expiries approach in the early 2030s. Investors were increasingly focused on Novo’s next growth drivers following setbacks for obesity candidate CagriSema. Novo said it expects revenue growth between 2026 and 2030 to be in line with industry peers," UBS analyst Nana Antiedu wrote in a note.

Novo has been pursuing a turnaround effort this year, already leading to substantial restructuring. Doustdar has cut as many as 9,000 jobs and removed several management layers, with total cuts reaching about 13,000. Novo is also pursuing new therapeutic areas and using AI to accelerate drug development.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 06:55

Ukraine Pounds Major Moscow Refinery As Global Diesel Crisis Threatens Economic Shock

Military conflicts, economic wars, and resource wars are converging ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Export restrictions on critical materials and energy products are adding economic pressure worldwide, raising the risk that supply disruptions and retaliatory measures widen existing conflicts. With no clear path to de-escalation, the potential for spillover from active war zones remains top of mind.

The most pressing news so far this morning is that Ukraine launched a major overnight drone strike on Russia, hitting a Moscow refinery despite President Trump's request for Ukraine to stop striking Russian energy infrastructure as a global refining crisis deepens.

Bloomberg reports that the Gazprom Neft-owned Moscow Oil Refinery, about 16 miles from the Kremlin, was struck by drones. The facility has a processing capacity of around 245,000 barrels a day and supplies fuel to the surrounding metro area.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on X, "One of Russia's key oil industry facilities and the aggressor’s logistics facility were hit. These are billions of dollars that sustain the war machine. The systems used included FP-1, RZ-100, MICH-2000, Palianytsia, Vendetta, Liutyi, Bars, Flamingo, Sichen, and Pelican."

Our long-range responses had a very significant impact in the Moscow region last night. One of Russia’s key oil industry facilities and the aggressor’s logistics facility were hit. These are billions of dollars that sustain the war machine. The systems used included FP-1, RZ-100,… pic.twitter.com/ka5mlDSgb7

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 20, 2026

Last week, diesel futures and refining spreads climbed to record highs as worsening supply disruptions in the Gulf and Russia tightened availability of the industrial fuel that powers the global economy.

Potential export restrictions, or extensions of existing restrictions, are compounding the squeeze. A report on Tuesday said Moscow was considering extending its diesel export ban, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters that day he was "open to exploring" a US diesel export ban.

The squeeze was even more severe in refining spreads. The US heating oil crack, which measures the difference between fuel and crude prices, surged to $117 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest level in Bloomberg data going back to 2009.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has warned that the diesel price shock echoes similar moves in gasoline during the 2008 energy shock.

* * *

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 06:45

VW Supervisory Board Recommends Another 4,100 Job Cuts At Porsche

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The hailstorm of bad news from Germany’s auto industry simply refuses to end. Again and again, heavy hailstones from corporate press offices crash down on anxious workforces at the automakers, ruining politicians’ election campaigns and destroying the last hopes of those still clinging to the promise of an electric car made in Germany.

The latest impact: According to a report by Handelsblatt, citing an internal recommendation by Volkswagen’s Supervisory Board, the personnel scalpel is once again being applied to the “Sport Luxury” division, meaning Porsche. Another 4,100 jobs are to be eliminated at Porsche, after it had already become clear that a total of 9,000 positions would disappear over the coming years. Porsche currently still employs 41,800 people.

According to the Supervisory Board’s proposal, Porsche is supposed to improve its operating profit by €3.8 billion by the end of the decade. In overhead costs alone, the Supervisory Board’s calculation shows a gap of around €700 million. That gap is to be closed through the additional job cuts. Volkswagen’s austerity program now seems to be updated almost weekly.

The notion that Volkswagen’s luxury brand Porsche could shield itself from the group-wide restructuring — or, better put, the clear-cutting — is now finally gone. The crisis runs deep, it is comprehensive, and it has already cost 150,000 jobs across the automotive sector. For consulting firm Roland Berger, there is still no end in sight. Berger expects another 200,000 jobs to disappear from Germany’s automotive sector by 2030. Entire value chains — and with them purchasing power, knowledge and prosperity — are disappearing.

A catastrophe for suppliers, for entire regions and for municipal treasuries that had relied so heavily on revenues from what was once Germany’s flagship industry. But that is what happens when you become ideologically entrenched …

Stuttgart is the blueprint for industrial locations across the republic that until recently threw themselves with fervor into the warm, ecologist current. The home of Porsche and Mercedes-Benz closed the last fiscal year with a deficit of €712 million — and the comfortably wealthy city could become a poorhouse if nobody pulls the emergency brake. Residents of these regions will have to prepare for public services — well-equipped schools, municipal sports facilities, swimming pools and recreational centers — to become luxury goods. The automotive industry is leaving; it is leaving behind empty coffers and high unemployment. A German Rust Belt is emerging before our eyes.

The downward spiral has engulfed every segment of Germany’s automotive industry: intense competitive pressure from China, tariff tensions with the United States, towering energy costs at home and an endless regulatory frenzy are all battering the business. It was therefore only a matter of time before even a luxury brand like Porsche would come under the wheels. And the company’s communications strategy seemed strangely familiar: In a kind of salami tactic, common in politics, the company has been announcing since 2024 that Porsche would initially allow temporary production contracts to expire. Around 1,500 employees were affected that year. In February 2025 came the announcement that around 1,900 jobs in Zuffenhausen and Weissach would be eliminated by 2029. Another 500 temporary contracts were not to be renewed.

In May 2026, it continued: Porsche announced the closure of its subsidiaries Cellforce, eBike Performance and Cetitec. More than 500 jobs were lost. At the end of July this year, the future package was finally presented: Another 5,000 jobs are to be eliminated by 2035, naturally in a socially responsible manner. So much should the future be worth.

Taken together, that amounts to around 9,000 jobs — meaning that more than one in three positions at the home location will disappear. Now another 4,100 new job cuts are being added — the company is being ground down further and further.

Volkswagen’s decline is accelerating. A look at its compressed margins is more than alarming: Originally, management had calculated on an operating margin of between 4 and 5.5 percent this year. It has now shrunk to 1 percent. A €10 billion special effect is weighing on the result. The ailing group is in intensive care.

What is happening at Volkswagen is the great mirror image of German industry: poor domestic conditions and excessively high energy costs following disastrous political decisions are making industrial production at home almost impossible. Since 2018, around 15 percent of German industrial production has disappeared. Around 420,000 jobs in manufacturing have been lost since 2019. With these jobs, engineering expertise is disappearing as well — expertise that is indispensable to a society. Disastrous construction projects such as Berlin Brandenburg Airport, Stuttgart 21 or the Hamburg Opera, where costs and schedules regularly spiral out of control, loudly testify to Germany’s brain drain.

Germany in 2026: Some are no longer capable of organizing infrastructure projects, while others, representatives of business and labor unions, are incapable of anticipating trends in global markets. Together, in their hour of need, they strike up a hymn to moralism, in a green overtone, always self-assured and arrogant toward dissenting criticism. A melody of decline.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a graduate economist, has worked for or over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 06:30

Venezuela's Oil Revival Faces "Decade Or Two" Climb Back To Record Output, Piper Sandler Warns

President Trump's "Donroe Doctrine" positions energy security in the West as a key pillar of US national security. 

The removal of socialist Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent massive Venezuelan oil deal represent the opening act in a longer-term effort to rebuild production and secure supplies closer to the Gulf of America. 

Piper Sandler global energy strategist Jan Stuart's view, however, highlights the time required for these new Venezuelan supplies to ramp up: any meaningful recovery in Venezuelan output could take years, with a return to historic production highs potentially requiring a decade or two. That timeline clashes with the view that additional Venezuelan barrels could provide near-term relief to US refiners amid the global diesel crisis.

"We'll stay tuned but suspect that reaching the old record highs will take a decade or 2 and oodles of good fortune," Stuart wrote in a note. 

Trump described the US-Venezuela deal as the "biggest oil deal in history" and said it would amount to control of 65 billion barrels of oil reserves.

North American Blue Energy Partners is set to develop the oil fields, with the Department of War holding a 35% stake in the venture and rights to a portion of its production. Venezuelan royalties and taxes could total roughly $200 billion over 25 years.

A Reuters report last week said ExxonMobil was negotiating a return to Venezuela's Orinoco Belt for the first time in nearly two decades.

Venezuelan bonds have rallied around these developments but the risk to investors is for a prompt revival. 

Beyond energy supplies, Venezuela reportedly prepared its first aluminum shipment to the US in years last week: 15,000 metric tons from state-owned Venalum, facilitated by Mercuria Energy Group and Heeney.

The cloud hanging over Venezuela's resources revival is the outcome of the US midterms. Stuart questioned whether US military backing for the oil deal would survive the next US election. Rebuilding production could take a decade or two. Investors now have to ask whether Trump's commitment can last that long.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 05:45

Utah Valley University Faculty's Sickening Post-Assassination Emails About Charlie Kirk Exposed

New public records indicate that faculty members at Utah Valley University sent hostile messages regarding Charlie Kirk to the university's administrators in the weeks following his assassination on the UVU campus, even though the university had previously issued public statements advocating civility and free expression.

Utah Valley University campus

Judicial Watch obtained the 133 pages of emails and text messages through a Utah Government Records Access and Management Act request. The records went to then-UVU President Astrid S. Tuminez and other administrators.

Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA, was assassinated on the UVU campus while launching a nationwide campus speaking tour. University administrators spent the following months talking about healing and dialogue. Some of the correspondence flowing into the university president's inbox tells a different story.

On September 22, 2025, a UVU instructor wrote to Tuminez, framing Kirk as a threat to "students we are trying to educate." Kirk "appealed to the worst of us," the instructor wrote, adding that he "spoke his prejudices openly, not to test free speech, but to shape minds," and that he "targeted impressionable youth, feeding on their fears and anxieties."

The email continued:

The hidden message in his rants was clear: hate is natural, and to resist it is to deny who you are. Hate masquerading as justice is nothing of the sort. True justice seeks fairness, accountability, and protection for all, while hate targets, divides, and destroys....

That is why we must resist any effort to memorialize him or turn him into an icon.... Charlie Kirk did not stand for civility, compassion, or truth. There was nothing civil about him.

The instructor closed by warning that "to memorialize him would be a grave mistake."

A second email, dated November 4, 2025 and signed as a "faculty member," escalated the anti-Kirk venom.

I've had a hard time dealing with the aftermath of the shooting on our campus, and in particular, I cannot understand how people could support or mourn someone who was so divisive and spewed such vituperation in his "debates." I regret that he was invited to UVU at all, and wish you had rethought the decision to allow him a forum on our campus.

That faculty member then turned to the proposed campus memorial, warning administrators that the Utah legislature holds "enormous power" and predicting a mass faculty exodus if UVU honored Kirk.

"Should a memorial to him be erected on our campus, I fear you will lose many faculty members, including myself," the email said. The same faculty member closed with a threat dressed as principle, writing, "I would not work at a university that supports Charlie Kirk's ideals in any way."

Nine days after the assassination, someone whose name Judicial Watch redacted from the release pitched the university on a different project. The pitch called for a $1 million fundraising drive named "Our Better Selves for a Better America."

"I would like to raise $1 million for this proposal," it read. "I have one pledge for $100k. I would like to raise the other $900k quickly."

UVU ran with it. The university launched Our Better Selves for a Better America as an official presidential initiative built around civil dialogue, conflict navigation, and peacemaking.

"The killing of Charlie Kirk on September 10, 2025, was a grievous tragedy that reverberated through the Utah Valley University (UVU) community and nation. It challenged civility, respectful disagreement, and freedom of speech - core freedoms written in the United States Constitution," the university's webpage about the initiative reads. "In the wake of this tragedy, UVU President Astrid S. Tuminez, Ph.D., asked, 'What is this moment asking of us? Of UVU? Of the nation?'"

While the university publicly promoted civility and open discourse, the correspondence landing in its president's inbox ran the other way.

"Charlie Kirk was assassinated while exercising his right to speak on a college campus," Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton said in a statement. "These records reveal that, even as Utah Valley University publicly called for free expression and civil discourse, some faculty members were making hateful and vicious comments about him, objecting to his invitation to campus, and threatening to leave if his memory were honored."

Charlie Kirk's family moved this month to put Utah Valley University and state officials on notice that it intends to sue, accusing the school of security failures that let his assassination happen.

"Placing a politically controversial figure like Charlie Kirk in an outdoor event in the quad surrounded by tall buildings and other elevated observation platforms is accurately described as walking him into a fishbowl," the notice of claim read.

🚨🚨🚨NEW this morning: Charlie Kirk’s family has filed a notice of claim against UVU, the state of Utah and some current and former university leaders over security failures that they allege allowed Charlie’s murder to happen.

Among the allegations is that campus TPUSA… pic.twitter.com/jj9k77yLqi

— Michael Ruiz (@mikerreports) September 16, 2026

"Through a series of stunning failures and reckless decisions, the UVU Parties created a foreseeable danger to Charlie," the document continued. "Those decisions ultimately rendered Mr. Kirk helpless to the rooftop shooter in an assassination that could have been avoided had the UVU Parties only taken reasonable steps to plan and oversee a safe event, steps outlined below that have been standard practice for other universities hosting controversial speakers."

* * *

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 05:15

European Central Bank President Blocked Binance's EU Entry: Report

Authored by Mathew Di Salvo via Bitcoin Magazine,

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stopped Binance from operating in the European Union, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The newspaper on Thursday reported that the top crypto exchange was on the cusp of operating in the trading bloc but then was told it couldn't after the central bank chief waded in.

EU law requires that local Crypto-Asset Service Providers (CASP) have a MiCA license.

Binance does not.

Binance in June withdrew its MiCA application in Greece.

"Lagarde wanted to keep the controversial crypto exchange, which pleaded guilty to financial-crime violations in the U.S., out of the European Union," the newspaper report said, citing interviews with officials.

Lagarde has long been anti-Bitcoin and pro-central bank digital currencies. Back in 2021, Lagarde said that the leading cryptocurrency was "a highly speculative asset" used for money laundering. She also criticized cryptocurrencies as a whole and said central banks would never hold bitcoin.

On CBDCs, though, Lagarde takes a different approach.

A CBDC is a digital form of fiat money, like the US dollar or euro; nations around the world are in different stages of researching and releasing them.

The EU under Lagarde is fast moving forward with a digital euro. Lagarde has described the digital euro as key to Europe's financial autonomy while taking aim at privately issued stablecoins.

CBDCs have been criticized by bitcoiners and others in the crypto industry who think they could be used to surveil citizens.

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning CBDCs when he took office.

The WSJ report added, citing various interviews, that Lagarde was worried Binance would embed the dominance of dollar-based stablecoins in Europe, instead of encouraging euro counterparts.

Binance is the world's biggest crypto exchange and billions of dollars in stablecoins are traded on its platform daily.

A controversial company, Binance and its CEO, Chanpeng Zhao, in 2023 pleaded guilty to anti-money-laundering violations and paid a record $4.3 billion fine.

Binance in June said it was still working to pursue MiCA authorization in another EU Member State.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 05:00

These Are The Countries Where Bond Yields Are Rising Fastest

The 10-year Treasury briefly poked above 5% this week - peaking at 5.04% on Bloomberg's tape, the highest since 2007 - before backing off. It's the first time it has been there since the October 2023 spike, and this time it arrived with company: Japan's 10-year is above 3% for the first time in three decades, Bunds are at their highest in a decade and a half, gilts are at a post-2008 high, and a Bloomberg gauge of G7 sovereign debt started the month yielding its highest on average since 2000.

The drivers are familiar: oil-fed inflation impulse, massive deficits, and bondholders who have finally started charging for the privilege of holding the long end. The surprise is the geography: the US 10-year has repriced 97 basis points higher over the past twelve months, and that doesn't even make the top four - South Korea is up 178, Japan 145, Australia 114, France 102.

As Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld explains further, government bond yields are climbing across major economies as investors contend with higher oil prices, inflation pressures, and growing government borrowing needs.

This graphic compares 10-year government bond yields across major economies, based on Bloomberg market data as of September 15, 2026.

Borrowing Costs Reach Multi-Decade Highs

Long-term borrowing costs are reaching levels not seen in decades, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury briefly hitting 5.04% on September 15, its highest level since 2007.

Still, yields have risen faster in South Korea, Japan, Australia, and France than in the U.S. over the past year.

Country Sept. 2025 Sept. 2026 Change (bps) 🇰🇷 South Korea 2.81% 4.59% +178 🇯🇵 Japan 1.58% 3.03% +145 🇦🇺 Australia 4.27% 5.41% +114 🇫🇷 France 3.48% 4.50% +102 🇺🇸 U.S. 4.04% 5.01% +97 🇬🇷 Greece 3.33% 4.28% +95 🇮🇹 Italy 3.48% 4.42% +94 🇩🇪 Germany 2.69% 3.54% +85 🇵🇹 Portugal 3.09% 3.91% +82 🇨🇦 Canada 3.17% 3.96% +79 🇬🇧 UK 4.63% 5.40% +77 🇪🇸 Spain 3.24% 4.01% +77 🇳🇱 Netherlands 2.85% 3.61% +76 🇸🇬 Singapore 1.76% 2.51% +75 🇲🇽 Mexico 8.80% 9.54% +74 🇳🇿 New Zealand 4.30% 5.03% +73 🇧🇷 Brazil 13.74% 14.45% +71 🇨🇭 Switzerland 0.19% 0.55% +36

Japan's rise marks a significant shift from the ultra-low-rate environment that defined its bond market for decades. Its 10-year yield has crossed 3.0%, reaching its highest level in 30 years as markets anticipate further monetary tightening from the Bank of Japan. Higher yields could also add pressure to Japan's already large government debt burden.

The sell-off has also spread across Europe. Germany's 10-year yield reached its highest level since 2009 on September 15, while U.K. borrowing costs have climbed above 5.0%.

How Higher Yields Affect the Economy

Government bond yields act as benchmarks for borrowing costs across the economy. As they rise, financing can become more expensive for mortgages, corporate debt, and other forms of credit.

Governments face pressure as well. Higher yields make refinancing debt more expensive at a time when public debt levels are already elevated across many advanced economies.

The implications also extend to stocks.

With 10-year Treasuries yielding around 5.0%, investors can earn higher returns from relatively safe government debt, raising the hurdle for riskier assets such as equities. Global fund managers now rank turmoil in bond markets as their leading market risk.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 04:15

Meloni: Italy Set To Ban Face Coverings In School, Limit Foreign Students Per Class

Authored by T.J. Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Italy is moving to ban face coverings in schools and limit the number of foreign students per class, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced at a youth event on Sept. 19.

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits to welcome Austria's chancellor at the Palazzo Chigi in Rome on Feb. 10, 2025. Filippo Monteforte/AFP via Getty Images

The event was hosted by her political party, Brothers of Italy. It marks a push by her government to respond to the continuing influx of non-European immigrants, especially those from the Islamic world, with the goal of ensuring these children can better assimilate into Italian society.

"For us, anyone who comes to Italy and wants to build their future here must learn our language, understand our culture, and respect our rules," she said to a standing ovation. "It is the only serious way to welcome them."

One major element of this education reform will be making learning Italian mandatory.

"If there is only one child in a class who doesn't understand Italian, that child will likely be able to learn the language and integrate quickly with the help of classmates and teachers," she said. "However, if the number of children who don't understand the language becomes large - or even the majority - that is no longer integration; it is neglect."

Meloni declined to specify what that limit would be. But according to research institute Fondazione ISMU, currently 11.6 percent of students in Italian schools are foreigners, nearly 12 of every 100 students.

The banning of face coverings was included in the push for increased assimilation.

"You must go to school with your face uncovered, and in Italy no one, in the name of a real or supposed tradition, can decide that a young woman must hide herself," Meloni said.

She did not mention hijabs, traditional headscarves that do not cover the wearer's face, in her address.

If approved by the government, this measure will need parliamentary approval within 60 days.

Meloni's government has made an effort over the years to curb illegal immigration, winning legal battles to fast-track deportation and keep out illegal immigrants who may have entered Europe illegally through its territory but were caught outside of it

Italy has also taken measures against Spain, citing a "high risks to internal security" and a possible terrorist-infiltration threat, after tens of thousands of Moroccan nationals overran Spain's North African enclave, Ceuta, between July 30 and July 31.

Meloni recently reached a historic milestone by becoming the longest-serving uninterrupted Italian prime minister since World War II.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 03:30

America Spends More On Defense R&D Than Any Other OECD Country - By A Mile

On the OECD's yardstick - defense R&D budget allocations per $1,000 of GDP - the United States spends $3.64. The next country on the list, South Korea, spends $2.06, and nobody else clears a dollar.

Britain is third at $0.97, Germany fourth at $0.79, France fifth at $0.50. The average across the 20 countries ranked is $0.58; the median is $0.27. Greece, at the bottom, spends nine cents.

The gap is about to get wider: the Department of War's request for fiscal 2027 is $1.5 trillion, 42% above this year's funding.

As Visual Capitalist explains further, defense research and development is one way countries invest in future military capabilities, from advanced weapons systems to emerging technologies.

This visualization ranks selected OECD countries by defense research and development (R&D) budget allocations per $1,000 of GDP. The data comes from the OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2026 Issue 1, with figures covering 2024 or the latest available year as of August 2026.

Defense R&D has also historically played an important role in shaping civilian technologies. Research tied to national security has helped support breakthroughs in fields such as computing, aerospace, satellites, medicine, and advanced materials. However, the link between military spending and innovation is not automatic, as secrecy can impede knowledge diffusion, among other factors.

The U.S. Leads by a Wide Margin

The United States ranked first, with defense R&D budget allocations equal to $3.64 per $1,000 of GDP. In absolute terms, the U.S. is also the world's highest military-spending country by a wide margin, with 2025 spending totaling $954 billion and accounting for one-third of global military spending that year.

The U.S. allocation was nearly 1.8 times South Korea's and more than 3.7 times the United Kingdom's, which ranked second and third, respectively.

The table below shows defense R&D budget allocations per $1,000 of GDP for selected OECD countries:

Rank Country Defense Budget R&D Allocation per $1,000 of GDP 1 United States $3.64 2 South Korea $2.06 3 United Kingdom $0.97 4 Germany $0.79 5 France $0.50 6 Poland $0.49 7 Japan $0.42 8 Slovenia $0.35 9 Norway $0.30 10 Netherlands $0.28 11 Australia $0.26 12 Sweden $0.26 13 Spain $0.23 14 Estonia $0.19 15 Türkiye $0.19 16 Finland $0.18 17 Latvia $0.15 18 Belgium $0.10 19 Hungary $0.10 20 Greece $0.09

Although U.S. military spending as a share of GDP decreased in 2025 compared with the annual average between 2015 and 2022, the Trump administration's U.S. Department of War announced in April 2026 that its Fiscal Year 2027 (FY27) Defense Budget would request an unprecedented $1.5 trillion, a 42% increase compared with 2026 funding.

Included in that amount are plans to increase defense R&D spending from $16.6 billion in 2026 to $18.7 billion in 2027, with a stated focus on a general science and technology fund.

South Korea and Europe Round Out the Top Five

Allocating $2.06 per $1,000 of GDP to defense R&D, South Korea ranked second, making it the only other OECD country above $2.

South Korea has emerged as one of the world's fastest-growing arms producers and exporters, supported by sustained government investment in its defense industry.

Reflecting this growth, four South Korean companies appear in the SIPRI Top 100 list of global arms producers with the largest arms sales revenues in 2024. Their combined revenues increased by 30% from 2023 to 2024.

Following South Korea, the ranking drops quickly. The United Kingdom placed third at $0.97 per $1,000 of GDP. Between 2019 and 2024, the UK's Ministry of Defense tripled its net expenditure on R&D from £1.02 billion to £3.07 billion.

Germany followed in fourth place at $0.79 per $1,000 of GDP, while France ranked fifth at $0.50 per $1,000 of GDP. France and Germany are the European Union's largest and second-largest defense R&D spenders, respectively.

Most Countries Spend Far Less on Defense R&D

Across the 20 OECD countries shown, the average defense R&D allocation was $0.58 per $1,000 of GDP.

The median was much lower, at $0.27 per $1,000 of GDP, showing how much the top spenders skew the average.

Within the top 20, the drop-off is steep. The U.S. allocation of $3.64 per $1,000 of GDP was more than seven times fifth-ranked France's $0.50 and more than 40 times 20th-ranked Greece's $0.09.

Defense R&D intensity varies considerably among wealthy economies because countries may prioritize procurement, active personnel, operations, or research differently.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 02:45

All Eyes Are On Belarus Ahead Of The US' Reported European Military Drawdown

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The potential pullback of some US forces from the Baltic States upon the completion of its force posture review could be followed by European NATO if Russia agrees to pull back some of its forces from Belarus in order to then establish partial buffers in the post-war European security architecture.

NBC reported last week that the US is considering withdrawing up to half of its ~80,000 troops that are deployed to Europe along with large amounts of equipment. This coincides with European fearmongering led by Poland and France that Russia plans to ramp up its hybrid attacks against European NATO (E-NATO) into increasingly regular kinetic ones that it'll then deny. E-NATO is also undergoing rapid militarization led by Poland and Germany while deploying ever more forces to Russia's doorstep.

These sky-high NATO-Russian tensions might be reduced upon the US' potential drawdown of its forces in Europe depending on the success of the following creative diplomatic proposal. If some US forces are pulled from the Baltic States, then the US might coerce its E-NATO allies to follow suit if Russia does the same with at least some of its forces in Belarus, which they fear could be exploited by it as a launchpad into the Baltic States. The military-strategic logic behind this proposal requires some explanation.

Just as E-NATO fears that Russia could exploit Belarus as a launchpad into the Baltic States, so too does Russia fear that E-NATO could exploit the Baltic States as a launchpad into either Kaliningrad, Belarus, or "mainland Russia". E-NATO claims that its gradual military build-up in the Baltic States is to deter Russia while Russia's own regional build-up is arguably to deter E-NATO. The resultant security dilemma risks a major war by miscalculation or a (Ukrainian?) false flag and is why tensions must urgently be reduced.

The key to this proposal is Belarus, Russia's mutual defense and Union State ally with which the US is in the midst of a fast-moving rapprochement marked by phased sanctions relief in exchange for the release of so-called "political prisoners". President Alexander Lukashenko is receptive to Trump 2.0's outreaches in order to reduce multifaceted Western pressure on Belarus since the large-scale phase of the Ukrainian Conflict began nearly half a decade ago and to counterbalance disproportionate dependence on Russia.

They and Putin could thus agree to an arrangement whereby any planned American military drawdown from the Baltic States leads to a partial drawdown of Russian forces in Belarus, incentivized by more sanctions relief for both of them, conditional on E-NATO pulling back its forces from the Baltic States. Poland, where Trump is considering a permanent US military presence and which already commands E-NATO's largest army, could then become the bloc's military bastion if they redeploy their forces to there.

It was earlier explained why "Poland Would Be The Baltic States' Best Security Guarantor In NATO 3.0", namely due to geographic reasons, the aforesaid military factors, and its envisaged leadership of the Intermarium. If this arrangement is implemented, then it could turn the Baltic States and Belarus into partial buffers, both of which would remain under their allies' mutual defense umbrellas for deterrence purposes, which could spark progress on Ukraine's negotiated demilitarization for the same purpose.

If coupled with a Russian-American(-Polish?) mechanism for verifying compliance and addressing issues as they may emerge (e.g. Ukrainian drone flights over Belarusian and Baltic airspace), then tensions could be reduced and a basis for the post-war European security architecture would be established. All eyes are therefore on Belarus ahead of the US' reported European military drawdown since that country and its leader are the key to this vision for averting a major war in the most realistic way possible.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 02:00