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California Declares State Of Emergency Ahead Of Strong El Niño

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on Sept. 21 as the state prepares for what he described as the strongest El Niño storm season on record.

Newsom said the emergency declaration would allow state agencies to act more quickly for potential severe weather, including securing roads and critical infrastructure, positioning emergency supplies, and helping local partners to mitigate flood, landslide, and coastal risks.

"That is what this action is about. Giving communities the support they need, giving first responders the tools to do their jobs, and giving families the confidence that their state is ready," he said in a statement.

The proclamation directs state agencies to take measures to reduce flood risks and pre-position food-fighting supplies such as sandbags and pumps.

It prepares the California National Guard to assist flood response, search-and-rescue efforts, engineering, and logistics missions when needed, according to the governor's office.

The governor also instructed state environmental and natural resources agencies to expedite permitting for projects that are focused on addressing flooding, landslides, and debris flows in the state.

"Through the governor's state of emergency, we're cutting red tape and fast-tracking the flood-protection and broader preparedness work communities need now," California Natural Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot said in a statement.

El Niño is a climate pattern marked by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

Newsom's office said California could experience repeated rounds of heavy rain, strong winds, landslides, debris flows, and coastal flooding in the coming months due to El Niño.

"We are preparing for this El Niño early because every Californian deserves to be safe in their home, connected to their community, and protected when severe weather comes," the governor said.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast a 75 percent chance that this year's El Niño, expected to occur between October and December, could become a historic event exceeding the strength of previous events recorded in 1950.

"With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed," the weather agency said in a Sept. 10 advisory.

NOAA said there is more than a 90 percent chance that El Niño could reach "very strong" levels during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

California has already experienced coastal flooding this year attributed to the phenomenon, as El Niño-driven "Kelvin waves" raise sea levels and offshore Pacific hurricanes send strong waves that batter the California coast, according to the governor's office, which called on residents to prepare for potential severe weather.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 18:25

The Riots Never Came: Has The Protest Machine Stalled, Or Is It Regrouping

Summer has ended without riots.

In Part One, we examined whether Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's crackdown on NGOs was having an effect. We now revisit that question, examining the far-left groups and subversion networks involved in mounting a revolution against the U.S.

The National Network on Cuba released a "National Rapid Response Plan" that called for nationwide actions against U.S. bases, ICE, and other federal facilities. Nothing happened. Black Alliance for Peace published an interactive map of U.S. military bases, urging their followers to use the map to find facilities in their communities and "strategize how and where to organize and agitate." Again, Nothing happened.

The Marxist Neville Roy Singham network, which has become the primary driver of the protest-industrial complex nationwide, also seems to have lost its momentum despite opening up Liberation Centers across the country to organize protests. Despite their deep pockets and extensive infrastructure for mobilization, they also seem to be unable to mobilize large crowds of their comrades as they used to post-October 7th. ANTIFA, which was designated by the Trump administration as a domestic terrorist organization in September of 2025, also appears to be on its back heels and unable to take control of public space in the way they did in Portland during the Summer of Love riots of 2020.

So we must ask ourselves, why?

It is not as if Democrats have actually gathered the courage to oppose the rising extremist networks in their own party. Quite the opposite. Congressman Jerry Nadler even went on the record once and stated that ANTIFA is only an idea. Party leaders have had no choice but to embrace the far-left, such as DSA, even calling their party a "big tent." 

Gavin Newsom tacitly welcomes the DSA into the Democratic Party, saying he wants "a big tent party":

Gavin Newsom tacitly welcomes the DSA into the Democrat Party, saying he wants "a big tent party":

"I'm one of those Democrats that deeply believes in addition, not division and so, I want a big tent party. I want to win." pic.twitter.com/3rBVN4jdcG

— Julia 🇺🇸 (@Jules31415) July 13, 2026

The reason that the violent Marxist revolution against the West might be on its back heels is that the Cuban regime is on its back heels. This would prove Secretary Rubio's State Department correct in the theory that all revolutionary activist networks in the U.S. are in fact deeply connected to the Cuban regime and its intelligence service, all of whom have recently been sanctioned.

We laid this all out in December 2025:

In July, the State Department released a report titled "Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism." The report outlined a sprawling 60-plus years of history between American far-left revolutionaries and how they were all influenced, trained, and working in coordination with the Cuban intelligence service and their front group, ICAP. In the beginning of the Castro regime, Students for a Democratic Society made a pilgrimage to Cuba, which marks the beginning of the Venceremos Brigade. Upon their return to America, the most radical members of SDS split off to form the Weather Underground, which would soon become America's most prominent domestic terrorist organization, who Cuba covertly supported during their campaign of violence.

It is hard for people today to imagine America experiencing regular bombings by left-wing radicals, but as per the State Department's report: "In one 18-month period between 1971 and 1972, the FBI counted some 2,500 bombings on American soil – a rate of nearly five a day."

The State Department has recently sanctioned the Cuban president, their intelligence service, ICAP, and ICAP's president Fernando González. And since this has happened, the "calls for revolution" by the Singham network and the National Network on Cuba - over 60 organizations - have not stopped, but have gone unanswered. The actions against Cuba and ICAP appear to have disrupted the revolutionary pipeline. 

As video evidence posted by Stu Smith of the Manhattan Institute has shown: everything the NNOC does is per the direction of ICAP. And now that ICAP is on their back heels, the revolution against America, capitalism, and democracy doesn't seem to be gaining ground anywhere except in politics, where the DSA - also partnered with ICAP - is supporting the Cuban regime and their ideology politically, but not via violent Marxist revolution.

Earlier on Tuesday, President Trump told the United Nations General Assembly in New York that Cuba has spent decades coordinating with far-left revolutionaries and subversion networks into the U.S. Trump said the State Department has worked to uncover Havana's ties to subversive and radical groups such as the Communist Party USA, Antifa, and the DSA. 

.@POTUS: The Cuban regime has also spent decades coordinating with left-wing radicals and Communist networks here in the United States. As our State Department has detailed, they have cultivated ties to subversive and radical groups such as the Communist Party USA, Antifa, and… pic.twitter.com/Bopz3W6sXz

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 22, 2026

The New York Post recently reported that Treasury officials are drafting a framework to audit NGOs suspected of exploiting their 501(c)(3) status for political activity, illegal conduct, or support of radical groups, which has only put left-wing billionaire foundations and donor-advised funds on notice. 

The question is whether the federal government's war on the radical left and the foreign subversion network that seeks to sow chaos has shaken that protest-industrial complex to its core. A source told the New York Post that officials were "like a dog with a bone" and reckoned that many NGOs and their donor bases could be "on borrowed time."

Also, the dismantling of USAID might have been another reason funding for riots is drying up, alongside the federal government's pressure on donor-advised funds and large left-wing foundations that are now thinking twice before funding riots and chaos as their 501(c)(3) status comes into the crosshairs. 

Then there's the complete fall of socialism across almost the entire South American region, as right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro could defeat socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva early next month in the Brazilian election and cement the entire continent's shift to the right. Shifting to Europe, the continent is set to "lurch right" according to Normua analysts. 

The riots never came, and the torching of small businesses seen during the BLM unrest was not repeated. The question now is whether that reflects diminished mobilization capacity, a shift in tactics, or a temporary lull. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 18:00

The Big State Monetary And Fiscal System Is Over

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via dlacalle.com,

In 2021, The Economist ran an entire number hailing "The Return of Big Government" as the end of the so-called - but inexistent in practice - "austerity" paradigm and the evidence that more spending and a big state was the solution to the post-covid world, delivering economic growth, social spending, and sustainability.

In 2025, the same publication ran a number called "The Coming Debt Crisis." The outcome of the return of big government was the return of persistent inflation, stagnation, and unsustainable debt. Who would have guessed it? Anyone doing the numbers and everyone who understands that government stimulus and so-called public spending multiplier effects are simply myths of statism.

For more than two decades, the dominant policy assumption in the developed world was that there were no meaningful limits to government spending, public debt, monetary intervention, or regulation. Interest rates were near zero, central banks absorbed government bonds, and politicians concluded that budget control was an obsolete idea.

That illusion is over.

The rise in unison of sovereign bond yields across developed economies is not simply a market move. It is the financial system's verdict on a model that has exhausted its credibility, even for those bond investors accustomed to believing all that governments and central bankers say as if it were the truth revealed. Permanently expanding government, structurally unbalanced budgets, central-bank financing of fiscal excess, and the political belief that every economic problem can be solved with another "stimulus" package seemed like a comfortable solution, but it delivered the same results, including persistent inflation, high deficits, and economic stagnation.

The state-led monetary and fiscal regime surpassed all its limits many years ago, but some still believed that it could all be disguised by central banks' quantitative easing. They were wrong.

First, we saw central banks enter losses. No one seemed to care. Then we saw bonds slump on fears of persistent inflation. No one seemed to care. Now we see that all sovereign bond yields rise even when central banks maintain all the liquidity measures, and when they hike rates, the relief only lasts a couple of market sessions.

The choice now is not the fake austerity of 2008-2012, which basically perpetuated big government and raised taxes. It is between a return to sound money, fiscal balance, lower taxation, deregulation, and a smaller state. Unless citizens start demanding their governments for more freedom and less intervention, the result will be a larger and prolonged period of stagnation, inflation, debt accumulation, and declining living standards.

Many will blame geopolitical events and say that the solution is socialism.

If socialism was the answer, France would not be in stagnation, with an enormous fiscal problem and rising social discontent.

The answer to the economic stagnation and affordability crisis is not more socialism. More subsidies, price controls, redistribution, and direct state intervention have always delivered the opposite of what the politicians promise.

Socialism never works because it is a system of control, not progress. It destroys the incentives to generate wealth and creates a dependent and submissive population unable to defend itself. Socialists know that their promises do not work, but by the time citizens find out, they are already hostages of a powerful state machine.

Across Europe, governments that have continually expanded public spending, taxation, transfers, and regulation have not produced prosperity or relief from living costs. They have instead accumulated debt, weakened growth, raised the economy's cost base, and deepened social discontent. Governments do not reduce prices; they increase them.

The political appeal is easy to understand. Subsidies and transfers seem to offer immediate, visible relief. The government makes you blame the person or business that puts the price tag, not the one that destroys the currency's purchasing power, which is the government itself. Thus, those "subsidies" are always paid with units of currency that are constantly losing value. They do not address the reason prices rise in the first place. Price increases are a consequence of monetary inflation, which is created when governments print more currency than the private sector demands through spending and debt.

Big corporations do not increase prices; governments do.

Socialism has one objective: control. Subsidies leave recipients dependent on political discretion while denying them the opportunities that come from productive employment, rising real wages, investment, and a dynamic private sector. At the same time, taxpayers are asked to finance an ever-larger state with less disposable income and fewer incentives to save, invest, hire, or start businesses.

Politicians then blame "the rich," corporations, or markets for an affordability crisis that their own policies have created. Furthermore, no government can redistribute wealth from a private sector that is being steadily weakened by higher taxes, punitive regulation, inflation, and rising borrowing costs.

Affordability is not created by government control or by shifting existing income from one group to another. It is created when the private sector thrives, real wages rise alongside productivity, competition lowers prices, investment expands supply, and housing, energy, transport, health care, and essential services can be provided more efficiently and abundantly.

When governments confront structural supply constraints with redistribution, subsidies, price intervention, and debt-financed spending, they also undermine the incentives to invest, build, innovate, and improve productivity. The result is always a more expensive economy, greater dependency, and fewer opportunities.

For years, governments could disguise fiscal fragility because central banks repressed yields. Quantitative easing was presented as a magic wand and a technical monetary-policy tool, but in practice it became a mechanism through which governments financed unsustainable spending at artificially low rates, crowding out the private sector and making the public finances unsustainable.

The consequences were predictable. When the price of debt is manipulated downward, politicians borrow more. Quantitative easing was never a tool to give time for governments to reduce debt and spending, but to justify higher expenses.

Now the market is imposing the discipline that policymakers tried to avoid. However, politicians refuse to cut spending and, instead, pass the rising interest cost to taxpayers.

Monetarily sovereign states do not have an unlimited capacity to issue currency or accumulate debt. They can postpone adjustment for a time if their debt is denominated in their own currency and domestic institutions remain credible. However, they cannot abolish the limits imposed by economic reality.

Since 2021, developed economies have gone over their three limits.

The economic limit occurs when each additional unit of government debt produces progressively less growth. Governments can inflate headline GDP through deficit spending, transfers, and public consumption, but the result is not the same as creating wealth. In the developed world, the expansion of government expenditure has coincided with weak productivity growth, anemic private investment, and a rise in living costs.

The fiscal limit is when interest costs and entitlement obligations displace productive investment. Governments may attempt to delay this moment through financial repression, artificially low interest rates, regulatory pressure on domestic financial institutions, and central-bank purchases of sovereign debt. As debt stocks grow and bonds have higher rates, interest expenses consume a larger share of public budgets. Governments borrow more simply to finance existing commitments.

The inflationary limit is reached when repeated monetary financing and persistent fiscal deficits undermine confidence in the purchasing power of fiat currency. Inflation is not only an annual change in a price index. Families suffer its cumulative effect in food, energy, housing, transport, insurance, and essential services. More money creation and debt-financed public spending do not resolve that crisis. They risk prolonging it by weakening the currency, distorting capital allocation, and transferring resources from savers and wage earners to the state.

Government bond yields have risen across the G7. In September, the average ten-year yield of the G7's largest economies reached 4.285%, its highest level since mid-2008. US ten-year Treasury yields moved above 5%. However, these were not the worst performers. Long-term yields rose faster in Japan, France, and the United Kingdom.

The synchronized nature of this rise is important. Japan faces rising yields despite decades of yield-curve control and massive central-bank intervention. Germany, despite a lower debt burden than many peers, has seen yields rise to their highest levels since 2011. US thirty-year Treasury yields have reached their highest point since 2007.

Markets are repricing fiscal risk, inflation risk, and the declining credibility of monetary institutions at the same time.

Investors no longer assume that high-debt governments can inflate away their liabilities without consequences, nor that central banks can endlessly monetize debt without damaging the purchasing power of money.

The fiscal model of the past fifteen years depended on a false premise, built on the idea that government debt was virtually free. As long as interest rates stayed close to zero, governments could claim that debt ratios did not matter because debt-service costs remained manageable. The "Japan is a model, not a cautionary tale" recommendation given by Stiglitz proved to be very attractive for governments. It also proved to be awfully wrong.

Debt does not become sustainable merely because a central bank suppresses its price.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that global public debt rose to 94% of GDP in 2025 and will reach 100% of GDP by 2029. The world's major economies are driving the trend, as high deficits, rising interest burdens, and structurally higher spending demands destroy fiscal space.

The interest-cost problem is becoming critical. Global government interest spending is estimated to have risen from about 2% of GDP in 2020 to 2.9% in 2025. It is expected to continue increasing through the end of the decade. This is the deadweight cost of believing that Japan's Keynesian excess is a model.

Every additional unit of taxpayer revenue devoted to interest payments destroys money in the economy. Governments will inevitably respond by raising taxes, borrowing more, and demanding further monetary accommodation. Each of these responses weakens growth and affordability.

The modern welfare state has been unsustainable for years and has become dependent on low borrowing costs that no longer exist.

The predictable political response will be to call for another, even larger, round of quantitative easing, larger fiscal transfers, massive public-investment plans, industrial subsidies, and "strategic" spending programs.

This will be a massive mistake... Again.

Quantitative easing only disguises imbalances for a short period of time. It cannot solve a solvency problem.

Central banks can purchase government bonds, but they cannot create real savings nor productive money. They can expand their balance sheets, but they cannot increase productivity, restore competitiveness, or create the capital necessary for a sustainable recovery.

Printing money does not make a nation richer. It is a massive transfer of wealth from savers and wage earners to the state and the first recipients of new money. It distorts the price of capital, encourages malinvestment, and eventually feeds inflationary pressures.

Artificially low interest rates send a false signal to markets. They make unsustainable spending, borrowing, and investment appear viable. Furthermore, the newly created money is used by governments for current spending. The eventual slump is not caused by capitalism or market failure. It is caused by the prior distortion of money and credit.

The same principle applies to public finances. Governments have treated zero-rate policies and QE as a substitute for reform. They have used monetary intervention to preserve spending structures that taxpayers cannot sustainably finance. They have delayed necessary adjustments in pensions, public administration, subsidies, entitlement programs, and regulatory burdens.

The result has not been robust growth. It has been an unstable combination of weak productivity, high debt, elevated inflation risks, financial repression, and social frustration.

Advocates of ever-larger government frequently argue that fiscal stimulus creates growth. The evidence from developed economies is the opposite.

After years of extraordinary deficits, public spending programs, central-bank asset purchases, and industrial-policy initiatives, most advanced economies face low trend growth, weak private investment, declining productivity, unaffordable housing, high tax burdens, and increasingly poor public finances.

The problem is not just that governments spend too much. It is that governments spend resources in the worst possible way, worse than private actors, and direct capital according to political priorities rather than consumer demand, profitability, or long-term productive value. Governments are exceptionally bad at picking winners and even worse at picking losers.

The problem is also in the economics world. GDP accounting treats public spending as an addition to output. But real prosperity depends on whether resources are used productively. A government can borrow and spend billions while leaving the economy poorer in productive terms as that spending crowds out private investment, raises taxes, sustains unproductive activities, or fuels inflation.

The solution is not to borrow more in hopes the next stimulus will succeed where the last failed. The solution is to remove the obstacles that prevent private-sector growth.

Developed economies need a policy reversal based on four principles.

First, they need sound money. Central banks should shut down. However, since this will not happen, they must return to their mandate: protecting the currency's purchasing power. Monetary policy should not be used to fund deficits, manipulate sovereign-bond markets, or protect governments from the consequences of fiscal irresponsibility.

Second, governments must balance their budgets through durable spending reductions, not cosmetic measures, tax hikes, or optimistic growth assumptions. Spending cuts should focus on eliminating inefficient subsidies, duplicative administration, corporate welfare, politically directed investment schemes, and entitlement commitments that cannot be financed.

Third, policymakers must cut taxes, particularly those that penalize work, investment, savings, entrepreneurship, and capital formation. A tax-increase strategy is politically convenient because it avoids confronting the expenditure problem. However, it reduces incentives to produce, invest, hire, and innovate precisely when economies need more dynamism.

Fourth, advanced economies need an ambitious deregulation agenda. Lower barriers to business formation, energy production, housing construction, labor-market flexibility, and investment would do more for sustainable growth than another decade of deficit spending.

The big-state monetary and fiscal system is over because it is no longer credible financially, economically, or politically. The bond market is making clear that there is no permanent escape from fiscal arithmetic.

The reader may say that governments will choose more intervention, more debt, more monetary distortion, and more stagnation. However, for the first time, we are seeing citizens all over the world rejecting these promises. Governments and large political parties may have to change their policies because the failure is evident and the voter base simply says enough is enough. That is why the cultural battle is so important. The goal is to make voters understand that the solution is not more government, but less. A lot less.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 17:40

Bessent Emerges As "AI Czar" Frontrunner

Fresh off his recent spat with "Doomsday Dario", whom he scolded for his apocalyptic essay (which was attempted regulatory capture in all but name) and warned that the US government will not serve as a "liability shield" to the frontier AI company,  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears to be one step closer to directly taking AI matters into his own hands. 

According to Semafor, Bessent is emerging as a frontrunner for President Donald Trump’s new "AI czar" position, after long playing a central role in the Trump administration’s AI policy. This week Bessent held an early dialogue with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, ahead of Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Among the topics discussed, Bessent and He spoke about a potential US-China “notification mechanism” to facilitate communication about AI incidents that pose threats to national security, as part of what Bessent said were talks about a formal US-China dialogue on AI.

Other names in the mix for the czar position include White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios, a longtime Trump ally on tech, and Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Kupor, who left VC giant a16z to join the government.

“When President Trump talked about appointing an AI czar, I think it is to put context, shape and contours around these questions, and they’re very important,” Bessent told CNBC earlier this week, adding that he thought humans are ultimately responsible for what AI does.

"What did they try to do last week? It was, well there's a 10 percent chance that we destroy the world, but we want the government to give us a liability shield and that's good business for them, bad business for the American people."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed… pic.twitter.com/zCzUdCJx19

— CNBC (@CNBC) September 21, 2026

The Treasury chief became an active participant in AI policymaking earlier this year after financial institutions told him advanced AI systems could make their systems vulnerable.

As Semafor cautions, Trump’s decision on his AI point person is not final, and he is known to ultimately favor dark-horse candidates. But if Bessent were to ultimately get tapped, his Cabinet job wouldn’t be a barrier — Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has simultaneously held the “energy czar” moniker.

“Any reporting about personnel decisions that have not been officially announced by the administration should be regarded as baseless speculation,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 17:20

Foreign Actors Disrupt 2 Colorado Water Systems: Governor's Office

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

Foreign actors gained access to computer systems at two small private water utilities in Colorado in late August, changing equipment controls before operators restored normal operations, according to the governor's office.

Ally Sullivan, a spokeswoman for Gov. Jared Polis, said the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment followed up with the providers to confirm the issues had been resolved. The governor's office said it was unable to confirm which foreign actors and did not identify the utilities.

"The two water utilities impacted are small, private water providers that serve fewer than 200 people," Sullivan said in a statement to media outlets.

"The providers acted promptly and there was no impact to public safety or water services. We cannot confirm what foreign actors may have been involved, but we are aware of ongoing efforts across the nation by an Iranian-backed group to access drinking water and wastewater systems, as per the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency."

Sullivan did not immediately return a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

Treatment processes and water quality were not affected at either provider, according to the governor's office.

The Colorado incidents occurred weeks after a series of cyberattacks impacted water and wastewater systems in multiple states. Federal agencies had already flagged the threat.

In an Aug. 19 advisory, the FBI, National Security Agency, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and other agencies warned of an active cyber threat to Siemens S7 Series programmable logic controllers (PLC) used in water systems and other critical infrastructure.

The advisory said unnamed threat actors were conducting reconnaissance and capability development against the U.S.-based Siemens PLC installations, using AI-generated exploitation scripts disguised as legitimate monitoring tools. It noted that the hackers sought internet-connected PLCs running outdated software or that were otherwise poorly protected.

"The U.S. critical infrastructure sectors most targeted by this threat activity include Critical Manufacturing, Energy, Water and Wastewater, Chemical, Food and Agriculture, and Commercial Facilities," the advisory stated.

"This is not a theoretical risk - it is an active threat."

The advisory came amid reports of incidents targeting local water systems in several states in the preceding weeks. The FBI said that from July 27 to July 30, water and wastewater utility companies in seven states reported security-related incidents.

Michigan was among those states. Dale George, director of communications for the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy, said that the state received the FBI's notice warning of attempts to tamper with operational technology at water systems.

"All systems continued to operate safely, issues were addressed by local operators, and there are no known impacts that posed a public health concern," George said.

Earlier in July, more than 30 community water systems in Minnesota reported a coordinated cyberattack. CISA urged water entities of all sizes to protect operational technology against activity targeting PLCs.

Attackers had targeted internet-facing Rockwell Automation and Allen-Bradley MicroLogix controllers, changing passwords and IP addresses. Some effects included loss of pressure. Federal officials warned that a significant pressure drop can allow untreated groundwater to enter drinking water pipes.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 17:00

Man At Risk Of Losing $95,000 Plane For Transporting Unopened Six Pack Of Beer Takes His Case To SCOTUS

The Supreme Court will consider whether Alaska went too far when it confiscated a pilot's $95,000 airplane over an attempt to bring beer into a dry community, according to Yahoo News.

The case dates to 2012, when longtime Alaska charter pilot Ken Jouppi agreed to fly a passenger from Fairbanks to Beaver, where alcohol was prohibited. The passenger had 72 cans of beer in her luggage. Most were boxed, but a six-pack was visible in a grocery bag.

Troopers found the alcohol before takeoff. Jouppi was convicted of a misdemeanor after a court determined he had been willfully blind to the beer. He received three days in jail and a $1,500 fine, but Alaska law also required forfeiture of his airplane, worth about $95,000.

The Alaska Supreme Court upheld the seizure, reasoning in part that illegal alcohol imports contribute to the broader problems caused by drinking in rural communities. The U.S. Supreme Court agreed to review the decision and will hear arguments in Jouppi v. Alaska on December 1.

Yahoo writes that the Cato Institute, backing Jouppi, argues that the state's approach gives too little weight to what Jouppi himself actually did and how severe the punishment was relative to his offense. Its brief points to a legal tradition stretching back to the Magna Carta, which held that punishment for a "trivial offence" should reflect the seriousness of the conduct and should not be so large as to destroy someone's livelihood.

Cato also cites the Supreme Court's 1998 ruling in United States v. Bajakajian. There, the Court rejected the forfeiture of $357,144 from a man who failed to report that he was carrying the money overseas. The money was legally obtained, the offense caused little direct harm and the Court found the forfeiture excessive.

Jouppi, now 83 and an Air Force veteran with no prior criminal record, argues the same principle applies to his case. His airplane was worth more than 60 times the criminal fine he actually received.

The case could also determine whether a person's financial circumstances should factor into an excessive-fines analysis. As Justice Clarence Thomas wrote in a separate 2019 forfeiture case, treating identical property seizures as equal punishment would create a fiction "that taking away the same piece of property from a billionaire and from someone who owns nothing else punishes each person equally."

A ruling for Jouppi could give courts clearer guidance on when property forfeitures cross the Eighth Amendment's line from punishment into an excessive fine.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 16:40

Soros-Linked Political Groups Pour Millions Into Democratic Efforts Ahead Of Midterms

Via American Greatness,

Political committees tied to the Soros family have directed tens of millions of dollars to Democratic-aligned organizations during the 2026 election cycle, including a group spending heavily in Michigan's closely watched U.S. Senate race.

Democracy PAC and Democracy PAC II had distributed more than $40 million to Democratic-aligned organizations as of the end of June, according to campaign finance records.

Recipients include Senate Majority PAC, House Majority PAC and J Street Action Fund.

Federal Election Commission records show Democracy PAC II alone reported more than $6 million in total disbursements through June 30.

The spending has drawn attention in Michigan, where Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed is running against Republican Mike Rogers.

Senate Majority PAC, which received $9 million from Democracy PAC this cycle, has committed $30 million to supporting El-Sayed in Michigan, according to recent reports.

The outside support comes as El-Sayed has made reducing the influence of wealthy donors a prominent campaign theme.

"The fundamental corruption of our politics has been the system that allows corporations and would-be oligarchs and billionaires to buy politicians," El-Sayed said in a 2025 interview.

Republicans are highlighting the contrast between that rhetoric and outside spending supporting his candidacy. Alyssa Brouillet, a spokeswoman for Rogers, accused El-Sayed of being inconsistent on political money and criticized his connections to wealthy donors.

The Soros network has also supported organizations involved in congressional races, environmental issues, voting efforts and campaigns for progressive prosecutors.

George Soros transferred control of his philanthropic and political organization to his son, Alex Soros, in recent years. Additional disclosures could provide a more complete picture of the family's political spending during the 2026 election cycle.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 16:20

AI & The Same Old Politicized Hysteria

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

The midterm elections are six weeks away.

Suddenly, a debate has erupted over the existential dangers of artificial intelligence. Jacob Coxon, a little-known Silicon Valley researcher who worked at OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned and went public with a dire warning: AI now threatens the future of the world.

Shortly beforehand, news broke of the Hugging Face episode, in which OpenAI's advanced AI "agents" autonomously hacked another company's computers.

Bedlam followed.

Weaponizing AI

Almost on cue, Democrats seized on the alarm as a new cause célèbre, accusing Donald Trump and the MAGA movement of recklessly courting Armageddon.

The Left demanded international treaties, ignoring the dismal record of such globalist projects: the League of Nations, the Kellogg-Briand Pact, the Washington Naval Treaty, the Versailles Treaty, the Munich Agreement, the Paris Climate Accord, and the UN Human Rights Council.

Panicky AI executives soon joined the chorus, speaking as though they could neither control their companies nor monitor their own research.

Their conduct casts doubt on this safety rhetoric. Just yesterday came news that Anthropic had built a fully automated, AI-controlled biolab, even though AI-generated plagues are a staple of the doomsday case. OpenAI, meanwhile, is resisting legal liability for harm caused by its products.

The familiar political script followed.

Democrats in Congress demanded hearings. They are unlikely to use them to ask tech executives or administration officials serious questions. More likely, they will spend their allotted time shouting, wagging their fingers, displaying their ignorance, and spinning wild conspiracy theories.

Sen. John Kennedy, who has proposed reasonable AI regulation for years alongside Republicans like Sen. Josh Hawley, recently observed that "the Democrats clearly are trying to politicize this."

The reaction to a June administration decision offered still stronger evidence. Both purportedly worried AI companies and Trump-hating AI-risk advocates objected when the administration barred Anthropic from giving foreign nationals access to its Mythos and Fable 5 models - models whose cybersecurity risks the company itself had publicized.

With the trans delirium and the demonization of ICE losing force, however, the Left apparently needs a new existential crisis to blame on Trump before the midterms.

This tactic - never letting a crisis go to waste - is hardly new.

A Litany of Political Panics

Baby boomers grew up hearing dire warnings about the "population bomb," the title of Stanford professor Paul Ehrlich's 1968 bestseller predicting that unchecked population growth would lead to global catastrophe.

Ehrlich and others argued that rising affluence would swell populations, producing famine, pestilence, war, and ultimately global catastrophe.

The thesis collapsed, but not before it produced a pervasive "Spaceship Earth" mentality. Guilt-ridden Americans were told to remain childless or, at most, to have one child.

Other countries followed. The existential danger now facing Western societies is the reverse: the citizens of these countries are now having far too few children. Their populations are shrinking and aging, while a dwindling cohort of young taxpayers must support ever-growing entitlements.

Green apocalypticism followed this. The science of ecology gave way to radical environmentalism, and legitimate concern about industrial pollution and acid rain became propaganda that the Earth was doomed unless the West renounced capitalism. Even heat was redefined as pollution. When "global warming" proved insufficiently terrifying, it became "climate change."

The new phrase was a brilliant catch-all. Rain and drought, snow and heat, calm seas and hurricanes could all be cited as proof that modern, fossil-fueled Western consumerism had doomed the planet.

European Union countries nearly wrecked their economies by subsidizing inefficient wind and solar power while abandoning nuclear energy and fossil fuels.

The 1980s brought another panic: nuclear war would soon incinerate the cities, and the resulting dust would blot out the sun.

Politics drove much of the frenzy. The Left despised Ronald Reagan and saw no other way to prevent his reelection in 1984.

For years, the United States had responded weakly as the Soviet Union deployed mobile, intermediate-range nuclear missiles aimed at European cities. Reagan finally answered by stationing Pershing II launchers and ground-launched cruise missiles in Western Europe. The Soviets eventually withdrew their nuclear-tipped missiles.

No matter. A manufactured epidemic of fear swept the West regardless.

The popular scientist Carl Sagan toured the country promoting his terrifying theory of a "nuclear winter" after what he treated as an inevitable Soviet-American nuclear exchange.

Hollywood joined the campaign in 1983 with The Day After, a grim portrayal of a nuclear strike on the United States and its gruesome aftermath. Some 100 million Americans watched this movie, which depicted mushroom clouds rising over Kansas.

The psychodrama did not stop Reagan's reelection. Soon afterward, he negotiated a missile treaty with the Soviet Union, proving that he was hardly the deranged warmonger that his opponents delusionally imagined he was.

By the turn of the millennium, America was lurching from one amplified panic to another. Al Gore became a centimillionaire and a Nobel laureate by warning that internal-combustion engines would boil the planet, bringing both lethal drought and catastrophic coastal flooding.

Polar bears would die, coral reefs would disintegrate, icebergs would menace shipping, and coastal homes would disappear beneath the sea.

Only a Marshall Plan-scale replacement of gasoline and diesel engines with wind turbines, solar farms, and batteries, we were told, could save humanity.

The planet survived. Al Gore grew wealthier, and Goreism then quietly receded into the shadows.

#MeToo began with legitimate accusations against Hollywood predators such as Harvey Weinstein, who had long coerced young actresses into sex in exchange for roles - the old casting couch revived.

Before long, however, the movement had become a new Salem witch trial, treating almost any allegation of rude conduct between the sexes as the equivalent of rape.

Insinuation and rumor damaged the reputations of men ranging from Garrison Keillor and Sen. Al Franken to Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, often with little or no evidence. A legitimate campaign against sexual harassment had deteriorated into character assassination.

Millions of men began searching their memories for an off-color joke, an overlong hug, or a kiss that might resurface years later to ruin their careers while advancing those of their accusers.

The McCarthyite frenzy subsided only when liberals realized that their Frankenstein monster had turned on its creators and threatened too many of their own political icons.

They had no wish to derail the likely presidential candidacy of the handsy Joe Biden, whom several women accused of inappropriate touching and hugging and one even accused of violent sexual assault.

Nor did they wish to revive the sordid record of former president Bill Clinton's many brief and exploitative sexual encounters.

As #MeToo faded, COVID hysteria took its place. The initially virulent virus warranted serious concern; more than a million Americans would die from it. Yet concern became madness once defeating Trump took precedence over fighting the disease.

Officials closed schools even though the virus posed little danger to young people or children. The first nationwide lockdown in American history devastated the economy.

Officials presented the new mRNA vaccines as ironclad protection against infection and transmission. Those who resisted were treated as near-outlaws, fired, or ostracized, although the shots had not been proved to guarantee lasting immunity or perfect safety and often carried with them serious side effects, many or most of which were denied or swept under the rug.

The government expelled 8,500 service members who refused vaccination even as, with liberal approval, 10,000 unvaccinated and unvetted illegal immigrants crossed the border each day.

Teachers' unions kept public schools closed, inflicting lasting harm on a generation of students. Quarantines and shelter-in-place orders contributed to domestic violence, drug abuse, and alcoholism. Millions missed heart and cancer screenings. The shuttered economy destroyed hundreds of thousands of small businesses and upended millions of lives.

Still, shyster "experts" predicted years of mass death comparable to the plagues that ravaged ancient Athens and Constantinople.

They grossly misrepresented or caricatured the classical medical understanding of acquired natural immunity. Dr. Fauci and his circle of "authorities" also failed to disclose their role in funding gain-of-function research at the Communist Chinese laboratory in Wuhan that had created the mysterious virus.

What ended the panic?

As a few sober - and therefore demonized - health experts had predicted, the virus evolved into less virulent strains while prior infections increased natural immunity.

COVID eventually receded to the level of a severe flu. By then, this hysterical, manufactured response to it had wrecked the economy, destroyed the final year of the Trump administration, and inflicted incalculable physical and psychological harm on the American people.

The lockdowns helped ignite an even greater panic after George Floyd died in Minneapolis police custody. A video showed an officer restraining the resisting Floyd with a knee on his neck, using what was then considered a more or less standard protocol; within moments of its release, the country erupted.

False claims spread that police disproportionately killed unarmed black men. Murals portrayed Floyd as a haloed martyr with angel wings, although he was a career felon detained for passing counterfeit currency who resisted arrest, was high on drugs, and suffered from cardiovascular disease and the effects of a recent COVID infection.

No matter - riots soon swept the country. More than 35 Americans were killed, roughly 2,000 police officers were injured, and about 14,000 people were arrested. Property losses reached some $2 billion. Rioters torched a police precinct and a federal courthouse and tried to storm the White House grounds.

Universities dropped SAT requirements. "Black" was given a sacral form of capitalization; "white" was conspicuously left lowercase.

New racial quotas sharply reduced white male admission rates at elite schools. Institutions hired tens of thousands of DEI commissars. Campaigns to defund the police, release habitual felons, and decriminalize theft spread nationwide.

Then the George Floyd frenzy abruptly subsided.

Black Lives Matter's founders were exposed as grifters who had misappropriated funds while acquiring plush homes and expense accounts.

Data showed that, relative to annual police encounters, unarmed black men were not fatally shot at a higher rate than white men.

After abandoning admissions standards, universities found themselves inflating grades, adding remedial courses, and lowering academic expectations for students who had not met requirements the institutions had deemed indispensable only a year earlier.

The post-Floyd frenzy finally ebbed as the public recognized that tribalism and attacks on meritocracy were themselves racist and nihilistic.

What, then, does today's Democratic embrace of AI alarm share with these earlier mass frenzies?

First, each began with a legitimate concern that politics and a profit motive soon warped the problem beyond all recognition. The Left appropriated the underlying issue to gain political advantage and power.

Worry about overpopulation goes back to Malthus, but The Population Bomb appeared in the election year of 1968. Its political subtext blamed Western consumerism, capitalism, religion, and traditional pronatalism for civilization's supposed approaching end.

The danger of nuclear war had been real since the start of the atomic arms race. Nuclear-winter paranoia, however, was promoted to damage Ronald Reagan during his reelection campaign.

Al Gore's book Earth in the Balance converted tentative scientific speculation about climate change into partisan dogma. It blamed capitalist consumer culture for destroying the planet and, in the 1992 election year, reinforced the Clinton-Gore campaign's attack on the Bush status quo.

#MeToo reached its political peak during the Kavanaugh hearings. Democrats repurposed a movement against Hollywood abuse to derail Trump's Supreme Court nominee with unfounded claims that Kavanaugh had assaulted a teenage girl decades earlier. Democratic operatives coached the now-troubled adult before she appeared on national television.

COVID began with legitimate fear of an escaped, artificially enhanced virus that killed millions - a fear the Left initially dismissed as anti-Chinese racism. It, too, was soon politicized. We now know that Anthony Fauci, his associates at the National Institutes of Health, and other presidential advisers despised Trump and understood that shutting down his booming economy could end his presidency.

The Biden campaign then blamed Trump for the economic damage caused by the lockdown.

George Floyd's death was genuinely shocking on video, especially without the surrounding context. But the 2020 campaign transformed it into the catalyst for months of rioting and a weapon against the supposedly racist Trump and MAGA movement. As cities burned, the Left argued that Trump was powerless to stop the violence - and a Nazi if he tried.

Second, every panic was exaggerated. The planet was neither overpopulated nor running out of food and fuel. Nuclear war was not imminent, and Earth did not face destruction within a decade. Women were not experiencing an epidemic of sexual assault. The lockdowns likely caused more harm than the virus, and police were not conducting a mass slaughter of black men.

The underlying dangers were not equally imaginary. Nuclear war, for example, came terrifyingly close in 1962 and again in 1983.

Among genuine threats, AI most resembles nuclear weaponry. That assessment may change, but AI has so far proved to be an extraordinarily powerful and therefore potentially dangerous tool. Its moral character depends on the people who build and control it.

That is why the United States can neither entrust AI regulation to international bodies with dismal track records nor permit Communist China to monopolize the technology.

Trump, who is a much more skillful diplomat than his globalist critics admit, has instead pursued bilateral negotiations with China over the real dangers both countries face. Those dangers were illustrated just yesterday, when an AI hallucination reportedly almost prompted a U.S. attack on a Chinese cargo ship.

In the end, Americans must rely on their own people, constitutional government, and open culture to harness AI for the public good - and to deter hostile powers from using it for evil.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 15:45

Have You Seen The Surge In US Rough Rice Futures

America's rice harvest is forecast to fall to its lowest level in 33 years. CBOT rough rice futures, the benchmark for US long-grain rice before milling, are surging higher at the end of summer after rising 69% so far this year.

USDA forecasts total production at 158.2 million hundredweight, roughly 23% below last year's 206.7 million. Harvested acreage is projected at just 2.057 million acres, the lowest since the 1972/73 season. 

"While beginning stocks are raised 4.6 million cwt to a 40-year high of 58.4 million cwt, production is reduced 0.2 million cwt to 158.2 million, a 33-year low, as a reduced forecast for harvested area more than offsets a higher yield," USDA wrote in a report.

The good news is that a meaningful supply buffer remains, with the year beginning with 58.4 million hundredweight in inventories, a 40-year high. This will provide a cushion against any lost production.

Even with that buffer, USDA expects ending inventories to shrink to 40.4 million hundredweight, down 31% from a year earlier. Its forecast for the all-rice season-average farm price is $14.90 per hundredweight, about 20% above the previous year.

USDA said there was a "notable shift to a relatively tight U.S. supply situation" from last year's harvest to this year's.

That is being reflected in CBOT rough rice futures, which have jumped 69% so far this year to $16 per hundredweight and could be on track to test the $19.65 high reached in the summer of 2023.

CBOT tracks US long-grain rough rice. International prices, especially in Thailand, have also risen.

Goldman analysts estimate this El Niño could push global food commodity prices up more than 15%.

It is not a great sign when the grain that feeds the world is soaring in price in multiple regions, suggesting further food inflation pressure on household budgets.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 15:25

Mullin: DHS Investigating 1,620 Non-Citizen Voter Fraud Cases

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

The Department of Homeland Security is investigating 1,620 cases of alleged voter fraud involving noncitizens and reviewing hundreds of thousands of additional cases, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin said.

Mullin told Fox News that DHS has made 151 arrests and is examining another 300,000 cases based on information compiled from state voter rolls.

"We're scrubbing them. We're comparing them to those that are in the country illegally, those that are legal permanent residents and those that are citizens" to determine whether they voted legally, Mullin told Fox News contributor Kayleigh McEnany.

The investigation puts renewed attention on election integrity and the participation of noncitizens in U.S. elections, an issue President Donald Trump has repeatedly raised.

According to Mullin, the cases uncovered by DHS support Trump's longstanding contention that election fraud has occurred.

"We continue to see that. Every single vote, Kayleigh, that we talk about, that was at the hands of an illegal canceled out a citizen that was legally registered and able to vote," Mullin said.

DHS is examining the additional cases to determine whether individuals identified on state voter rolls were citizens, legal permanent residents or in the country illegally, according to Mullin.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 15:05

Copper Nears Record High As Shanghai Inventories Tumble, Fueling Scarcity Fears

Copper has almost retraced the selloff sparked earlier this month, following Reuters' report that the White House's "copper tariff plan stalls amid affordability concerns." Prices are back near record highs in London as Bloomberg reports tightening supplies in China's physical market, reinforcing scarcity concerns.

Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange rose .7% to $14,763 a ton, putting the industrial metal within striking distance of its September 10 record of $14,875.

The driver, according to the outlet, is new Shanghai Metals Market data showing shrinking Chinese inventories. Those inventories fell to 43,900 tons, the lowest since 2023.

This year's rally follows a volatile stretch of upside price action, as uncertainty over potential US import tariffs on copper sent record inflows into US warehouses and tightened availability elsewhere.

We have highlighted how deteriorating conditions across global mining operations are adding to supply woes in the physical market for the industrial metal.

Copper, critical for AI and power grid buildouts, has climbed 18% this year and 70% since its April 2025 lows, according to Bloomberg data.

Veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie has warned repeatedly that "physical economy is repricing scarcity in the real world."

With copper approaching record highs, The Market Ear's latest technical analysis report examines the price levels to watch for confirmation of a breakout (read here).

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 14:45

Trump Calls For Diesel Export Ban After 3-Hour 'Very Productive' Iran Talks Summary

• US-Iran talks: Unnamed US admin representatives held 3-hour talks with Iranian officials on sidelines of UN General Assembly.

• Trump's UN address ultimatum: Touts possible deal 'after' US midterm elections, but also says: "Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival?"

• Diesel export ban: Trump said he had discussed a potential ban on U.S. diesel exports with his team, as lawmakers push for measures to address elevated domestic fuel prices.

• Signs historic Greenland security deal: Trump signs the security agreement with Denmark and Greenland.

• Trump addresses AI challenges in speech: He promoted a more permissive approach to AI, referring to it as "super intelligence." He said "The United States leads the world in super intelligence, and we'll continue to do so safely and responsibly."

//--> US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Yes 16% · No 85%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

3-Hour Iran Meeting; Proposed Diesel Export Ban

Trump administration officials have held a long meeting with the Iranian delegation on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, with the president hailing it as a "very good" meeting. He further called it "very productive" and that "they have another one scheduled in the very near future."

As for who represented the White House, no specific names were given, but President Trump while addressing reporters appeared to reference his special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as they sat near him. "It was a meeting that lasted for three hours," Trump indicated.

Confirmed: Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met with the Steve Witkoff, US special envoy, and Jared Kushner on the sidelines of the General Assembly at U.N headquarters in New York, according to NYT, citing two Iranian officials

Not confirmed: A high-ranking source told Al Arabiya: The New York meeting between the American and Iranian delegations broke the deadlock in the negotiations; A breakthrough between America and Iran is possible, but it requires multiple steps.

Iran's armed forces: says Trump's statements on Iran at the UNGA are "tools are domestic propaganda."

In his big UN address earlier in the morning, Trump warned that he could "annihilate" Iran and "send them to hell" - but also held out hope that Tehran would be willing to make a deal, which would likely come after the US midterm elections.

The same afternoon Trump spoke in a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, saying that he has called for a ban on diesel exports. Oil prices pressed lower immediately on the headlines, but soon after began rising again. However, some sources have warned that the controversial proposal could backfire.

Trump said he has discussed a potential diesel export ban with his team, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the administration is examining the possibility of such a ban.

Trump endorses a ban on diesel exports: "I've called for that too. I've said, let's not send out the diesel." (Trump has in fact called for other nations to buy energy from the US!) pic.twitter.com/GVYILw1ou4

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 22, 2026 Trump on Iran, Oil & Midterm Elections

Standing before the United Nations General Assembly, President Trump told the world: "While others have talked, I have acted. While others have spoken of peace, I have made peace."The focus quickly turned to the Islamic Republic of Iran, which Trump charged as responsible for spreading "death and carnage and chaos." He claimed: "They were the bully of the Middle East, but they are the bully no more."

In listing out what have become the admin's typical talking points, Trump issued an even bigger than before number of Iranian citizens he claims were recently killed by their own government, stating without evidence that over 72,000 Iranian citizens had been slaughtered. This number just keeps on and keeps on growing.

Addressing the war itself, Trump hailed that Iran's navy ships now lie "at the bottom of the sea," and their economy is completely gone, and with many capabilities like radar utterly non-existent. Yet, the nuclear threat is still front and center. Reaffirming his red line to "never allow a nuclear weapon," Trump turned to boasting of how his Operation Epic Fury "obliterated their nuclear program beneath mountains of rubble." But again he still holds Iran out as an atomic threat.

One of the more interesting lines came when Trump said Tehran had built a missile capable of hitting Europe, and that the Iranians openly boasted of this. He called on Europeans (who have so far rejected the urging to join a Hormuz military mission) to take note of this. "I have a big decision to make... will a deal be made with Iran, or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and 'do it quickly'? Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival?"

President Trump says Iran deal will be made after the midterm elections, and says he has decision between a deal with Iran or destroying them: "Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again?" pic.twitter.com/Y5K6v4B326

— CSPAN (@cspan) September 22, 2026

He talked about potentially annihilating them, and this key line:

“I believe we’ll make a deal right after the election because it doesn’t make sense for them not to,” Trump said. “They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election.”

Trump in this Iran section of the speech made some provocative remarks on the US midterm elections. He indirectly invoked the dilemma of high oil prices and how the GOP might do. "I give no credence to the election; I am not running... it doesn't even enter my mind." Instead, a global ultimatum was issued: a call on all nations to join the United States in enforcing the total isolation of Iran, driven by the absolute promise that "It's gonna be done, it's gonna be done fast" - in reference to this decision of achieving either peace or Iran's final destruction.

👀Iranian delegation began to walk out as Trump started the Iran portion of his speech, saying that he has a choice to make about whether to annihilate the country or make a deal with them.

One lower level staff member remains. pic.twitter.com/iFtL9ntfkv

— Farnoush Amiri (@FarnoushAmiri) September 22, 2026

The address then got broader, outlining Trump's foreign policy 'successes' driven by leverage, special relationships, and the persistent threat of tariffs. Pointing to Venezuela, his narrative emphasized how combining Venezuelan and US resources - accounting for "60% of the world's oil" - would help drive down energy prices worldwide.

He openly boasted after the US military invasion of Venezuela and overthrow of Maduro, "To the victor belong the spoils."

Trump on Venezuela:

When you add the United States and Venezuela together, we have more than 60 percent of the oil in the world. So, it’s perhaps the biggest deal.

It was a war, but it’s perhaps the biggest deal ever made.

To the victor belong the spoils. You’ve all heard… pic.twitter.com/Hrqu9knMtO

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 22, 2026 Trump on Ending Ukraine War, Greenland Security Deal, & AI

On Ukraine War:

Trump claimed ending the war between Russia and Ukraine will happen "faster than people understand." He said Washington is working closely with both leaders, asserting both countries are exhausted by the conflict.

On Greenland:

"No US. adversary will ever be permitted to establish a military presence in Greenland anymore or make sensitive investments there without our express written approval. We will immediately begin the process of developing a large military presence in the appropriate locations. We’ll be building two very major military bases."

On AI:

Calling it “super intelligence”, Trump said the US rejects a “globalist scheme” to control AI.

“The use of the word artificial makes intelligence sound fake, and it is not fake,” Trump explained. “It’s actually amazing.” And then: “All of US documents will be changed to use the much more accurate term ‘super’, instead of ‘artificial’,” he said. “Welcome to the new world of super intelligence slash SI.”

Trump said the US would encourage rather than rein in the technology. “The United States leads the world in super intelligence, and we’ll continue to do so safely and responsibly,” he said. “Americans have never been a nation that retreats from a frontier or shrinks from a challenge, no matter how great or how daunting that challenge may be,” he added.

And within less than an hour after Trump walked off the UN stage: Trump signs the security agreement with Denmark and Greenland.

*  *  *

President Donald Trump is set to deliver a highly anticipated speech to the United Nations General Assembly today, set for 9:55 Eastern Time, or around 10am - though things are already running late. He's expected to address the Iran war and the "importance of ensuring that Iran never has a nuclear weapon" - according to UN Ambassador Mike Waltz, along with a other foreign policy issues like his 20-point peace plan in Gaza, as well as recent US actions closer to home in the Western Hemisphere.

Watch Trump's Full UNGA Address

High on everyone's mind is whether the US will engage in direct diplomacy with the Iranians on the UNGA sidelines.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the White House remains open to this.

"We’re open to that. I don’t think anything is scheduled at this point, but we’re certainly open to something like that, especially if it has the prospects of leading to something positive and ultimately achieving the goal of what this is all about," Rubio told NBC's :Today" show Tuesday morning.

"And that is the fact that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. They just simply can’t."

A senior White House official has further previewed of Trump's speech: "He'll include many of the issues, frankly neglected by past administrations, that he’s not going to kick the can on." From there and intense, meeting-packed day will ensue, starting with:

Following his speech, Trump will join a signing ceremony with the leaders of Greenland and Denmark on an agreement that the president touted as giving the U.S. “total control” over the Arctic island’s security. Greenland and Denmark, which owns the self-governed island, framed the agreement as strengthening security and said they will need to have their parliaments ratify the terms before it goes into effect.

According to White House and UN previews of Trump's busy schedule, a series of bilateral meetings will ensue:

• First bilateral meeting: Face-to-face meeting with U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

• Second bilateral meeting: A "fulsome" meeting with Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

• Third meeting: A discussion with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

• Special event: Participation in the "Shield of the Americas" event with Latin American leaders.

More on anticipated Trump talking points:

BREAKING: President Trump's UN speech to make the case for how he uses America's power to confront Iran, cartel violence and other threats, reshaping the world to help the US, White House official tells Fox News' @WardDPatrick pic.twitter.com/oCn655rK83

— Fox News (@FoxNews) September 22, 2026

Another key meeting to be held on the sidelines will be crucial direct engagement with officials from Washington's Gulf allies, at a moment of deep wartime uncertainty lingering over the whole region. Trump has warned he could starting hitting Iran again, or else strike a deal "at any time".

Investors will be keeping an eye on US President Donald Trump’s address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, as well as his meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later in the week. Beijing is expected to offer additional rare earth export licenses as a bargaining chip at the summit, Bloomberg News reported.

Gulf leaders are also anxious over the expanding war with the Houthis in Yemen. The Saudi coalition has over the last two weeks been beaten back rapidly, impacting overland oil transit - particularly after the East-West pipeline was hit in a drone attack - and Riyadh is looking for urgent military help from its partners. So far Trump has resisted directly joining the expanded conflict.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 14:28

MAHA Leaders Warn Trump, RFK Jr. Over Inaction On mRNA Vaccines

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Some leaders in the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement on Sept. 21 warned President Donald Trump and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over their inaction regarding messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccines, including vaccines against COVID-19.

"While the centerpiece of the MAHA and health freedom agenda has been removal of mRNA shots, you have failed to take decisive action on this front despite overwhelming credible evidence to the harm of this technology," the activists said in an open letter to Trump and Kennedy.

"Instead, your policies related to mRNA technology are neutered and self-defeating, putting pregnant women and children at risk, misleading parents and eroding their rights, and failing to help those harmed by vaccines."

They added, "If you continue to ignore our central issue of removing the mRNA platform, the MAHA and health freedom movements will withdraw their support of you, and you will face the political consequences."

The letter came after Kennedy told supporters that it takes time to make change inside the government, and that officials under him are carrying out vaccine safety studies that will inform future developments.

Dr. Mary Talley Bowden, a Texas doctor, organized the letter. She has criticized several actions by Kennedy and the officials he oversees since he became health secretary in 2025 and heads Americans for Health Freedom.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), and commentator Tucker Carlson, all one-time Trump allies who have fallen out of favor with the president, signed the letter.

Other signatories include Dr. Joe Varon, president and chief medical officer at the Independent Medical Alliance; Dr. Robert Malone, who was chosen by Kennedy to advise the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on vaccines; Leslie Manookian, founder and president of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, which has fought vaccine and mask mandates in court; and Dr. Joel Wallskog, who was injured by a COVID-19 vaccine and serves as co-chair of the vaccine injury advocacy group React19.

The coalition took exception with how mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, which Kennedy once described as the deadliest vaccines on the market, remain available for Americans. They also raised concerns about how the administration recently cleared an mRNA vaccine against influenza even though it was not tested against a placebo, which ran counter to a promise made by Kennedy that no new vaccines would be approved absent placebo-controlled trials. And they said there has been an "absence of meaningful help for those injured from the mRNA shots."

"The man who spent years warning America about mRNA vaccines now presides over a department that has approved another one," Malone and his wife, Jill Glasspool Malone, wrote in a blog post on Monday.

That is not a minor detail. It is the sort of contradiction that the medical freedom movement once would have torn apart."

Proponents of mRNA vaccines, including CDC Director Dr. Erica Schwartz, say data show they are safe and effective.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication.

A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services told news outlets in a statement that Kennedy "has been clear that he believes mRNA products warrant heightened scientific scrutiny."

The spokesperson added: "HHS continues to support mRNA research where the science shows promise, including for hard-to-treat cancers. At the same time, HHS wound down investments in mRNA vaccines for upper respiratory viruses because the technology does not effectively protect against infection from rapidly mutating viruses such as COVID and flu."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 14:25

Goldman Warns Nightmare Refining Crisis Could Prolong Diesel, Gas Price Pain Through 2027

Goldman energy analyst Nikhil Bhandari warned in a note on Monday that the global refining system is too stretched to support a full recovery in fuel demand while inventories rebuild. This suggests that fuel prices will remain elevated into next year.

Bhandari told clients that refining margins must remain elevated to restrain consumption and limit restocking, keeping demand within the industry's ability to supply diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. 

On an ex-China basis, Bhandari expects 300,000 barrels a day of refining capacity additions in 2026 to be offset by 600,000 barrels a day of closures, leaving another year of net capacity losses. 

Bhandari said if demand rebounds to 1% above 2025 levels while buyers attempt to replace half of this year's inventory draws, refinery utilization would have to reach unprecedented levels. This is a territory that he said, "We do not view as operationally realistic."

To keep utilization near the highest level seen this decade, the analyst says one possible combination would require demand to remain 1% below 2025 levels and no inventory rebuilding in 2027.

In other words, an uncomfortable reality is setting in: fuel prices need to stay high enough to keep consumption subdued. 

He provided clients with three scenarios spanning different recovery paths for refinery operations and global oil demand but warned global refined-product inventories could fall even more by the end of the year, possibly to 2015 levels measured in days of consumption during the fourth quarter of 2026. 

Bhandari expanded on his refining supply-demand framework: 

Scenario 1 assumes global refinery runs back to normal levels by March 2027, followed by the resolution of Middle East refinery outages by June 2027 and Russian disruptions by December 2027, paired with a robust 2.9 mb/d recovery in global oil demand in 2027.

Scenario 2 models a prolonged disruption, delaying the normalization of global refinery runs to October 2027. Under this scenario, Middle East and Russian refinery outages remain elevated at 5.0 mb/d above seasonal norms through the remainder of 2026 and 2027, paired with a sluggish global demand growth of 0.5 mb/d. 

Scenario 3 mirrors the refinery runs and outage normalization timeline as Scenario 1, but assumes a more modest global oil demand growth of 1.5mb/d. 

Across all 3 scenarios, we assume refinery utilization of the operating fleet returns to the highest 3-month average seen over the past 5 years post refinery runs normalization (Exhibit 4-Exhibit 5). 

We note total global product inventories could fall below the lowest days-of-use levels since 2015 in 4Q26 across all 3 scenarios (Exhibit 6), and OECD product inventories (inclusive of strategic reserves) in 2Q27 could fall below their historical minimum days-of-use level last seen around 2003 (Exhibit 7).

For refiners with access to steady crude flows, tight global refining capacity could create perfect conditions of strong margins and substantial cash generation. Bhandari highlights Valero and Marathon Petroleum in the US, S-Oil and Thai Oil in Asia, and Repsol, Neste and Helleniq Energy in Europe as potential beneficiaries.

Diesel and jet fuel remain at the epicenter of the global supply squeeze. Bhandari's warning of a global refining system "stretched for longer" suggests those favorable refining economics could come alongside elevated fuel costs that would pinch consumers' pocketbooks. 

Last week, Goldman commodity experts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven warned that the diesel crisis is setting up the next squeeze: gasoline. 

Professional subscribers can read the full note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 14:10

Libya's Largest Oilfield Hit By New Armed Group Blockade

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Crude oil production at Libya’s largest oilfield, Sharara, has slumped over the past day after an armed military group closed a valve on the pipeline that carries crude oil from the field to the Zawiya port for exports, in yet another global supply scare amid ongoing disruptions in the Middle East.

An armed group has closed Valve n.7 on the pipeline, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said, adding that the closure caused a pressure buildup within the crude oil pipeline, leading to a significant reduction in production at the Sharara field.

The field is operated by Akakus Oil Operations, and its production is being shipped through the pipeline to the Zawiya port for exports.

The Libyan state oil firm warned that “the continued closure of Valve No. 7 will inevitably halt production, transportation, and export operations at the Sharara field.”

If the shutdown continues, NOC said it may be compelled to declare force majeure on Sharara output and exports.

“This would directly harm the national economy by reducing state revenues, especially given rising global oil prices, and would expose the oil transport system and its facilities to technical and operational risks,” NOC said.

The Sharara oilfield is estimated to have produced about 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil before the incident.

Following the closure of the valve and the forced reduction of production, crude output at Sharara has now slumped to about 120,000 bpd, according to various estimates.

Libya’s fresh supply scare comes amid squeezed global oil supply as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain uneven and uncertain, and the Yanbu exports out of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast are still offline, following the drone attack on the East-West pipeline on September 10.

Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Tuesday, following two days of declines, as the market weighs diplomacy hopes against supply-side risks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 13:40

2Y Auction Tails As Foreign Demand Slides Despite Highest Yield In Over 3 Years

Ahead of today's auction, with yields sliding early in the day tracking the drop in oil tick-for-tick, some speculated that participants in today's sale of $69BN in 2 year notes would need a modest concession to show enthusiasm for the auction. And even though yields did push wider until the 1pm stop, it appears it was not enough and the auction was notably on the weak side.

Starting at the top, the high yield was 4.787%, a big jump from last month's 4.204% and the highest since June 24, largely thanks to last week's rate hike. To be sure, there is still some room before the 2Y takes out the generation high of 5.06% hit in 2023, but that was cold comfort to auction participants, and the auction tailed by 0.2bps the When Issued of 4.785%.

It wasn't all bad: the bid to cover was 2.627, better than last month's 2.599 and above the recent average of 2.606%. 

The internals were a touch weaker, with Indirects sliding from 66.01% to 57.79%, below the six-auction average of 58.6%. And with Directs rising to 29.0% from 23.1%, just above the recent average of 28.3%, Dealers were left with 13.2% of the auction, the highest Dealer allocation since March.

Overall this was an average auction, and while the internals were not too bad, the small tail suggested that the concession was not enough to inspire too much excitement.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 13:24

Turkish Airlines, Pegasus & AJet Cancel Iran Flights As US Sanctions Bite

Via Middle East Eye

Turkey's national carrier, Turkish Airlines, and budget airlines AJet and Pegasus have cancelled flights to and from Iran from September 21 as US sanctions take effect, a review by Middle East Eye indicates.

The Turkish Airlines and AJet websites have no flights to Iran until March, while Pegasus appears to have removed all flights to the country from its booking system for the foreseeable future.

via AFP

Iran International reported that a Turkish Airlines representative told the channel there was no guarantee flights would resume even after March 2027.

A person familiar with the issue told MEE that US Treasury sanctions on Iran's aviation sector were so severe that Turkish carriers had been forced to suspend their flights.

The person said that while restrictions on US-manufactured aircraft, such as Boeing planes, were understandable, the new sanctions also prevented Airbus aircraft from flying to Iran because they contained American-made components. The carriers had no other choice, the person added.

A Turkish official said that as of Monday, Mahan Air was the only Iranian carrier barred from flying to Turkey, leaving other Iranian airlines free to maintain services between the two countries for now.

Turkey and Iran have maintained a stable relationship and extensive energy and commercial ties despite successive rounds of US sanctions on Tehran.

However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken a different approach since US President Donald Trump moved to tighten economic pressure on Iran.

Over the weekend, Turkey revoked the banking license of Iran's Bank Mellat, which had operated in the country for decades.

US sanctions from September 23 could cut Iranian airlines off from global aviation services, threatening flights, fuel access and airport support. https://t.co/U2USXZwjRV pic.twitter.com/2E6e57tF4F

— Gulf News (@gulf_news) September 21, 2026

Turkey's banking regulator also took over Golden Global Investment Bank last week after the US imposed sanctions on the institution for allegedly transferring funds to the Iranian government.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 13:10

Bank Stocks Slide On Resurgent Agentic Fears

It used to be software that was the first casualty of fears of AI disruption. Today, it's the banks.

In a generally flat (and higher for tech stocks) market landscape, banks are conspicuously underperforming today, prompting questions what's the reason for the underperformance.  

According to some traders, the reason is the market's newfound obsession with the latest shiny agentic models that are taking the world by storm.

As Goldman trader Gaelle Jarrousse writes, she is noting the agentic hit on bank and insurance stocks. She lays it out as follows: 

I took a close look at INSTINCT, the ready to use personal agent with simple chat interfaces incl what's app integration. The other one is MUSE in the US. You can ask INSTINCT pretty much everything you want from find a bottle of wine and buy it for you, gym class, restaurants bookings, travel bookings but also find an insurance products and buy it for you, ie this is a one step ahead vs Moneysupermarket for example as INSTINCT does everything for you (5 min process vs a few hours). It is like having a personal assistant. And it will find the best available deal on the market.

She notes that the pushback is do you trust it to give your email address and credit card details to buy things but as time goes by, trust will increase especially with arrival of Muse.

One month ago, the WSJ did a profile on Instinct, calling it the "Latest Viral AI Assistant Rocketing Across Silicon Valley."

A new AI assistant is rocketing across Silicon Valley.

Months after OpenClaw, the viral AI-powered assistant, captured the attention of the technology industry, a company called Instinct appears to be gaining traction among early-adopting techies.

The startup began testing Instinct in private beta in February and quickly generated substantial interest among venture capitalists, who are among its earliest users. Its popularity surged earlier this month, as users began posting about what they saw as a highly capable AI assistant that worked fairly seamlessly, a goal technologists have long considered a holy grail.

Users of Instinct can call or text the AI bot and ask it to respond to emails, manage calendars, book a ride to the airport, arrange a handyman and more. Some users have reported using it to shop for homeowners insurance or order custom merch for a wedding.

“We saw someone buy a house on the platform. A lot of our younger users are using it to find apartment rentals,” Shinn said. “It’s a one-stop shop to do almost everything.”

Going back to Goldman, Jarrousse writes that we saw some early sell off in Telcos on the theme at the end of last week and we are seeing US banks and insurers down on the same theme today.

"I will pay attention to this and i started to get questions yesterday as a potential trigger for some profit taking in insurance esp when looking at the high valuation of Allianz which is a sector proxy."

She shares some additional color below: 

See table below, which is our best estimates based on company data, of Motor and non-motor exposure. The Nordics screen the highest on P&C exposure with Sampo, Tryg and GJEN at the top of the table. Admiral is the one of the pure play on the theme although we can argue that the UK is already very competitive. Amongst the multi liners Generali is at the top given retail P&C exposure followed by Allianz.

Looking at banks, KBC is the biggest P&C with about 20% of insurance revenues. Caixa and Intesa have 3-4% of P&C insurance exposure and I would argue that Italy and Spain are ripe for disruption on other products as well from deposits to asset management given high upfront fees, low betas. Historically the Irish have been weak each time agentic/ deposits competition kicks in and ING can come in the debate too given high L/D, deposits structure, positioning and NII expectations.  Outside of agentic, I am also bearish on Caixa given risk of short term NII disappointment due to deposits repricing vs time lag in asset repricing and a valuation at 2.5x P/TE. So overall I will be cautious on rates sensitive banks here  and Greece and Lloyds/ Natwest are now my only longs. On the Platforms, we have some constructive feedback from Italian trip and Munich conference on FINECO and FLATEX (see below) and I feel less concerned about those from an agentic disruption angle as they are the disruptors to incumbents and cash sitting on those platforms is meant is to be deployed/ invested. 

Goldman's US Financials specialist, Christian Degrasse, also confirmed that while he was seeing plenty of debate & inbounds coming in on sectors where price action is more muted today, a common starting point appears to be interaction with the consumer... with AGENTS are the primary focus...

...largely on businesses with Consumer Touch points as the market prices in risk that agents narrow the ability for companyies to monetize the consumer, and also change the landscape re lead generation & marketing .. this all comes amidst greater excitement around Muse + other agent products - and GS' Consumer Inertia basket (GSXUSWCH) is one of our most actively traded baskets in recent sessions .. 

There was some chatter yesterday on personal insurance (ALL), with focus today broadening out to Personal Insurance peers (PGR, TRV etc), Lead generators (investors have pointed to a couple of small cap insurance lead generators down HSD % - LDD %), Insurance Brokers (GSHD u/p peers 2 days in a row), Wealth Managers & Retail brokers (SCHW LPPA AMP RJF).. Banks are also trading heavy, and feedback here is debated – but focus does remain on banks with business mix geared towards the Consumer (Consumer deposits, wealth management) – which may explain from a high level the relative outperformance in smid banks (which in aggregate have less fee businesses like wealth + greater mix in commercial deposits) vs large banks – though positioning & liquidity may also potentially playing a part in todays volatility.

Payments … entered today where convos were very comfortable around V MA’s positioning on Agentic, and how integrated card was into present agent capabilities … Some questions here around whether the late morning underperformance is either 1) flow of funds driven (ie selling of liquid & owned financials) or 2) any worries around more direct wallet integration following announcement of a PYPL partnership (most feedback thinks #1 so far but welcome to views)

As we move into the afternoon – price action is somewhat indicative of investors in fins broadly pulling back & getting incrementally more defensive (with positioning starting to play a greater role in dispersion) … Signs = CBRE & JLL underperforming peers by ~2% (two popular names in real estate among Financials specialists), 2) large/liquid & defensive names viewed as (per feedback) having good tech (JPM) and/or well positioned on agentic (V MA), or more weighted towards commercial exposure (ie insurance brokers) trading heavy, 3) choppy underperformance across various sectors without direct agent reads (ie exchanges) ... In our view, this is all indicative of 1) the market pricing in a ‘uncertainty discount’ as investors potentially try to get up to speed on implications (risk/reward) on fundamentals, and 2) the market’s cognizant that in past choppy tapes that dealt with AI, it was better to be more patient rather than defending day 1 …

on that note, Mitola highlights volumes are High and we’re seeing 1) an uptick in thematic trading and a willingness to press names where an "agentic economy" presents a potential headwind & 2) a complete buyers strike with no signs of defense across the sector, similar to previous episodes YTD (AI risk, Perpetual Futures, etc) .. 

For now software, where shorts got badly burned after the recent surge, is insulated but as agents make a fresh push for attention - and disintermediation of traditional applications, how long before the pain returns? 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 12:55

Texas Governor Orders Halt To New Data Centers Weeks After Issuing Moratorium

One month after Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered a pause on Texas data center approvals pending an audit, overnight the governor doubled down and ordered the state’s environmental watchdog to withhold permits for new data centers until an audit of risks to the power grid is complete.

No authorizations can be given until the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or Ercot, completes its review, Abbott said in a statement on Monday.

Gov. Abbott directed the TCEQ to halt any new permits authorizing data center projects until ERCOT completes its audit.

No state agency shall move forward with approvals related to the development of data centers until that information is acquired. pic.twitter.com/MG2s0EKf8x

— Governor Abbott Press Office (@GovAbbottPress) September 21, 2026

This matters a lot for the US data center rollout because as the chart from Apollo below shows, Texas is home of one-fifth of the US’s data center pipeline in terms of IT power capacity, by far the largest of any single state.

In his statement, Abbott said that data center projects must prove they can cover all electrical infrastructure costs, use no water needed by local communities, and result in lower bills for households. The governor also said he would work with state legislators to eliminate any financial incentives for the hubs.

The governor is doubling down on an effective moratorium on new AI hubs amid concern that the vast sites are compromising the state grid and water resources. The proliferation of data centers is set to be a key issue in midterm elections in November, with President Donald Trump’s enthusiasm for expansion coming up against mounting public concern, mostly due to soaring power bills.

The permitting halt comes amid growing opposition to data centers across the US. Some 45 projects, worth $68 billion, were blocked or delayed by local pushback between April and June, according to research group Data Center Watch. Trump, meanwhile, has sought to drive the industry forward, warning that a slowdown could offer China an advantage in the AI race.

Texas, the biggest US energy powerhouse, has until now been at the forefront of the AI boom, but it has also struggled to connect data centers to the grid. As we reported at the time, Abbott last month ordered Ercot, along with the Public Utility Commission of Texas, to audit all data centers in the grid queue before issuing further approvals. Regulators subsequently set a mid-December deadline for project reviews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 12:40

Ed Dowd: The Fed Hiked Interest Rates Into A Supply Shock

Authored by Ed Dowd: Beyond the Narrative via Substack,

September FOMC Meeting: First Rate Hike Since July 2023

The FOMC did what the front end of the Treasury market (3-month T-bill) had been telegraphing for two weeks prior. On September 16 they voted unanimously to raise the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent. Kevin Warsh's press conference was short, blunt, and deliberately light on forward guidance. He said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, job gains are keeping up with the workforce, unemployment is little changed around 4.1 percent, and inflation remains elevated. He argued the hike "will support a timelier return" to the 2 percent goal and "This Committee will deliver price stability." He did not submit his own dot. The rest of the Committee's median projection for fed funds now sits at 4.1 percent at year end and stays there through 2027. They mentioned inflation risks are to the upside and that labor risks are roughly balanced. Geopolitical shocks and commodity prices got a mention, but they hiked anyway.

Why Did They Hike?

The day before the meeting I posted on X that starting September 2 the 3-month T-bill yield had moved above our simple Fed-funds-rate/T-bill model. Historically the Fed follows the market more than the market follows the Fed. The signal pointed to a minimum 25 basis-point move, with 50 not being out of the question. Politics could have intervened, after all this is right before the midterms, but the Committee chose to follow the tape. They chose 25 but the T-bill market yield of 4.09 said 50 would have been the cleaner signal. The market two weeks before the decision, in my opinion, was starting to discount the energy and commodity shock as something more durable than a temporary disruption. The war is not wrapping up on a convenient political calendar. The Iranians have little incentive to resolve it before November. A war sold as a two-week excursion will be 8 months old by the beginning of November. When a supply shock starts looking structural, the front end prices a higher terminal rate even if the underlying demand picture is deteriorating. That is exactly what happened. Essentially the market priced in a very high probability that there is almost no chance of a deal until after November with energy prices remaining higher and going up.

Was Hiking The Right Move?

Hiking into a supply shock is rarely the right medicine. Rate policy cannot produce more oil or more shipping capacity. It can only crush demand. The Committee knows this...Warsh even said they cannot control individual relative prices. They hiked anyway because they decided they were not yet confident that underlying inflation was moving toward 2 percent "clearly and at sufficient speed." Fair enough as a credibility statement. The problem is the data they are using to measure the other side of the mandate.

Payroll numbers have been inaccurate for years. We have been documenting this. BLS initial prints systematically overstated job growth; the QCEW and subsequent revisions have been carving hundreds of thousands of phantom jobs out of the record. The composition of the remaining "gains" is even more telling. Healthcare has been doing the heavy lifting while manufacturing, information, finance, professional services, and retail have been losing ground. That is not a robust, broad-based labor market. That is an economy being papered over by one sector and by earlier distortions that are now fading.

Housing is already rolling over. Starts and permits plunged again in August. Homebuilder confidence is near COVID lows. Months of supply are sitting near the 2006 peak. Real house prices are declining, led by multi-family. The border tightening removed a floor that illegal inflows had put under rents and home prices. Housing is a huge chunk of CPI and of household balance sheets. It does not look like a strong demand story. Layer on the AI complex: AI and AI-adjacent names are now 40-45 percent of S&P market cap, with massive public and private debt issuance behind the buildout. Institutional investors cannot diversify away from it. Private credit is growing its defaults in the dark and seeing outflows. Enterprise buyers are starting to ask about ROI. The MSM is starting to notice all the risks. Finally China is another risk sitting in plain sight with construction output collapsing, decades of housing supply, fixed-asset investment falling, and no clean export valve left. That does not stay contained.

The Table Is Set

So we now have a Committee that just removed a dose of accommodation into a supply-driven inflation impulse while the demand side of the economy is already softer than the headline payrolls suggest. Housing is weak. The AI trade is crowded and levered. China is an acute problem. That combination has a name: policy error. Not because they raised 25 instead of 50 but because they are treating a supply shock as if it were a classic overheating demand problem and they are doing it with lagging, revised, and compositionally misleading labor data. The market has provided false signals in a rate cutting cycle before and in my opinion the Fed should have looked through the supply shock and past the blatant unwillingness of the Iranians to come to the table before the midterms. They will likely hike again another 25 bp but holding rates steady and waiting would have been more prudent.

The cycle has not changed. Easy-money periods juice activity...sometimes with genuine investment and sometimes with fraud. Tightening and then the eventual easing cycle is when the previous juice gets exposed. We have seen the movie. The current episode has its own flavor: government deficit spending, labor-force distortions, an unprecedented illegal alien sugar high, speculative AI capex boom, an opaque private credit shadow banking complex and now a geopolitical supply shock layered on top. The Fed is late, as usual. Once they reverse course and start cutting again it will be into an accelerating slowdown. It will be too late as anything they do from here will take 12-18 months to hit the real economy. The next year is going to be tumultuous.

Ultimately rates are coming down, not because Warsh suddenly turns dovish, but rather because the real economy is already weaker than the official series admit and the lagged effects of tighter policy will show up in employment, housing, and credit. When that happens the Committee will discover, yet again, that they were fighting the last war with the wrong map.

* * *

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 12:20