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Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: Jobs, Warsh In Sintra, ISM, ADP

Global attention this holiday-shortened week,will center on the US labor market, with the June employment report due on Thursday ahead of the Independence Day holiday. A reminder that the US will be 250 years old this week. Alongside that, central bank communication will be in focus at the ECB’s Sintra forum (today through Wednesday), while inflation data across Europe and activity indicators in Asia—notably China’s PMIs and Japan’s monthly data—round out a busy global calendar.

In the US, DB economists expect payroll growth on Thursday to slow to +75k (from +172k previously), with private payrolls rising by around +90k. There is some risk of seasonals pulling down the numbers as they have in recent years around this time. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are seen unchanged at +0.3% month-on-month. Hours worked are also expected to remain steady at 34.3, leaving nominal income growth broadly stable.

Ahead of that, today brings the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, while tomorrow sees the May JOLTS report, where markets will watch for any shifts in hiring, quits and layoffs amid a still subdued hiring environment. Wednesday then features the ADP employment report alongside the ISM manufacturing index (forecast 53.9 vs 54.0 previously). These releases should help set expectations going into Thursday’s payrolls. Beyond the labor market, tomorrow also sees the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index (economists expect 94.4 vs 93.1 previously).

On policy, attention will turn to Wednesday, when Fed Chair Warsh speaks at the ECB’s Sintra forum. DB economists continue to expect a relatively hawkish policy path, with two rate hikes pencilled in later this year. However, near-term guidance is likely to remain limited, leaving markets to take their cues primarily from incoming data.

Looking beyond the US, Europe’s main event is the aforementioned ECB’s annual Sintra conference, which begins today and runs through Wednesday, featuring remarks from major central bank leaders. In parallel, inflation data will be a key focus, with Spain and Belgium reporting today, followed by Germany, France and Italy tomorrow, and the Eurozone aggregate on Wednesday. DB economists expect inflation of 2.46% YoY in Germany, 2.30% in France, 3.23% in Italy, and 2.95% for the Eurozone. Switzerland will also release CPI on Thursday. In the UK, the BoE publishes its credit conditions surveys on Thursday and the DMP survey on Friday.

In Asia, China releases various PMIs in the first half of the week. In Japan, today’s retail sales (out earlier) is followed by industrial production tomorrow, where economists expect a +1.4% month-on-month increase. The highlight, however, will be the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey on Wednesday, which is expected to show broadly steady sentiment and may reinforce the case for further gradual policy tightening.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day by day calendar of events

Monday June 29

• Data: US June Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, UK May net consumer credit, M4, Japan May retail sales, Eurozone May M3, June economic confidence
• Central banks: ECB forum on central banking in Sintra (through July 1), ECB's Lagarde speaks, BoE's Pill speaks
• Earnings: Prosus, AeroVironment

Tuesday June 30

• Data: US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, MNI Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed services activity, May JOLTS report, April FHFA house price index, China June official PMIs, UK June Lloyds Business Barometer, Q1 current account balance, Japan May jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, industrial production, housing starts, Germany June CPI, unemployment claims rate, May retail sales, import price index, France June CPI, May PPI, consumer spending, Italy June CPI, May PPI, Canada April GDP
• Central banks: ECB's Vujcic, Elderson, Schnabel, Cipollone and Lane speak, BoE’s Breeden speaks
• Earnings: Nike

Wednesday July 1

• Data: US June ISM index, ADP report, May construction spending, China June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, Japan Q2 BoJ’s quarterly Tankan survey, June consumer confidence index, Italy June new car registrations, budget balance, Q1 deficit to GDP, Eurozone June CPI
• Central banks: Fed's Warsh speaks, ECB's Lagarde, Vujcic, Cipollone and Lane speak, BoE’s Bailey speaks, BoC’s Macklem speaks
• Earnings: General Mills
• Other: Ireland takes on the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU

Thursday July 2

• Data: US June jobs report, May factory orders, initial jobless claims, Japan June monetary base, France May budget balance, Italy May unemployment rate, Eurozone May unemployment rate, Canada June manufacturing PMI, Switzerland June CPI
• Central banks: ECB's Cipollone speaks, BoE's Mann speaks, BoE’s Q2 bank liabilities, credit conditions surveys
• Other: US bond markets close early

Friday July 3

• Data: China June RatingDog services PMI, UK June official reserves changes, France May industrial production, Italy May retail sales
• Central banks: ECB's Lagarde, Nagel and Makhlouf speak, BoE's Bailey speaks, BoE’s June DMP survey
• Other: US Independence Day holiday (all markets closed)

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Thursday. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to speak at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal on Wednesday. 

Monday, June 29 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 

Tuesday, June 30 

• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, April (consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%)
• 09:00 AM Case-Shiller home price index, April (GS -0.1%, consensus -0.1%, last -0.2%)
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, June (GS 95.5, consensus 94.6, last 93.1)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, May (GS 7,100k, consensus 7,288k, last 7,618k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings declined to 7.1mn in May based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp.

Wednesday, July 1 

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, June (GS +120k, consensus +119k, last +122k)
• 09:00 AM Fed Chairman Warsh speaks: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will participate in a panel discussion with the President of European Central Bank Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. A moderated Q&A is expected. The event will be livestreamed. In his press conference following the June FOMC meeting, Chairman Warsh said, "The Committee thought that the labor markets were stable. There were some people around the Committee who thought that it was trending better than that, [and] trends matter more than data points." He also reiterated language from the post-meeting statement, saying, "Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy... but to be clear, the Fed will deliver price stability."
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, June final (consensus 55.7, last 55.7)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, June (GS 54.0, consensus 53.9, last 54.0): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index was unchanged at 54.0 in June, reflecting a slight decline in regional manufacturing surveys—our manufacturing survey tracker declined by 0.6pt to 54.4 in June—that is offset by a tailwind from residual seasonality.
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%)
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, June (GS 16.1mn, consensus 16.1mn, last 16.1mn)

Thursday, July 2 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, June (GS +130k, consensus +115k, last +172k); Private payroll employment, June (GS +95k, consensus +118k, last +120k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Unemployment rate, June (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 130k in June. On the positive side, we estimate that the World Cup could boost payroll growth by 40k in June. Additionally, June payrolls have exhibited a consistent positive bias in initial prints over the last decade. The bias has become particularly pronounced in state and local government educational services payrolls: over the last three years, the category has been revised down by an average of 45k between the first and third releases. On the negative side, we expect a 10k decline in government payrolls outside of state and local government educational  services. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month in June, reflecting negative calendar effects. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.3% in June, reflecting the stabilization in continuing claims.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 27 (GS 215k, consensus 220k, last 215k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 20 (consensus 1,813k, last 1,821k)
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, May (GS -1.7%, consensus -2.0%, last +4.8%)

Friday, July 3 

• US Independence Day holiday observed. There are no major economic data releases scheduled. NYSE will be closed, SIFMA recommends bond markets remain closed.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 10:20

Str-Eye-ke For A Str-Eye-ke

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

This weekend’s events cast fresh doubts over the value of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding.

On Friday, President Trump condemned the drone attack on a container ship that was transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had shot down three other drones, adding that “obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement.”

What followed was a series of eye-for-an-eye strikes. The US targeted Iranian military sites in retaliation for the attack on the container ship. And on Saturday, the US hit Iran again after the country attacked a tanker transporting Qatari oil.

Both sides have since agreed to halt their attacks and have said that further peace talks in Doha must go on. Or, that is what US officials believe, at least: “Our understanding is that both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely.”

That news seems to be sufficient to reassure financial markets today, with US equity futures indicating a moderately positive opening of the week. But will this new pinky swear to cease all aggression be enough to convince shipping companies, insurers, and ships that passage through the strait is once again safe?

Firstly, we would ask whether the US’ understanding is the same as Iran’s? Recall that both sides were already at odds over what “safe passage” meant in the first place, after Iran warned that only ships following the routes sanctioned by the IRGC are guaranteed safe transit. And “for now” does a lot of heavy lifting in that US statement too. Is that for the duration of the memorandum of understanding? Is it until the talks in Doha this week have concluded? Or just until either side decides otherwise?

Israel’s war against Hezbollah remains another potential trigger for renewed escalation in the strait. Hezbollah has rejected the framework agreement signed by Israel and Lebanon as a “surrender of sovereignty.”

Even if a number of ships is willing to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, the likely presence of sea mines limits the capacity of the strait. The CEO of NYK Lines told the FT that “the routes available for navigation are extremely limited,” adding that traffic will not return to normal “for months.”

The war between Russia and Ukraine may exacerbate global fuel shortages. Putin admitted that Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure are having effect. The Russian president acknowledged that businesses and motorists are facing fuel shortages, and he indicated that problems are likely to persist due to refinery outages: “the right type of gasoline isn’t always available right now.” The government is discussing measures, including a possible ban on diesel exports.

So, uncertainty about fuel supply remains high. Together with concerns about new US import tariffs, that’s driving shipping costs to new highs.

Last month, the US administration unveiled plans for new tariffs on a range of trading partners, after the Supreme Court annulled part of Trump’s original tariff scheme. So, US companies are trying to build inventory ahead of these tariffs. Just like the frontloading seen ahead of the “Liberation Day” tariffs, this stockpiling is putting pressure on shipping costs. According to data from Drewry, the freight rate for a 40-foot container has surged to the highest in about two years.

And so, new import tariffs –or the anticipation thereof– will probably continue to put upside pressure on US inflation, thereby delaying Fed Chair Warsh’ rate cutting campaign. In fact, some policymakers are considering a rate hike as their next move. Kashkari indicated which dot in the Fed’s dot plot is his: he said that he has pencilled in one rate hike in for this year, and that he expects rates to stay on hold in 2027. The central banker then added “we’re going to have to see how no forward guidance works.” Well, not like this?

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 10:00

"Bitcoin Is Capital": Saylor's Strategy Says May Sell Up To $1.25 Billion Crypto To Fund Dividends

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR), the world’s largest bitcoin treasury company, announced a sweeping capital management overhaul earlier today, introducing what it calls a Digital Credit Capital Framework. The announcement sent MSTR shares up 6% in pre-market trading and pushed bitcoin above $60,000.

The framework has five parts:

1. a board-approved USD reserve policy,
2. a dividend rate increase on one class of preferred stock,
3. a $1 billion buyback program for digital credit securities,
4. a $1 billion buyback program for common stock,
5. and a bitcoin monetization program that authorizes the sale of BTC to fund company obligations.

Strategy’s bulked up USD Reserve

At the center of the framework is a $2.55 billion USD reserve, cash and cash equivalents held to cover dividend payments and interest expense on the company’s debt. Strategy carries roughly $1.76 billion in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations, which means the current reserve represents 17.4 months of coverage.

The board has set a floor: the reserve must stay at a minimum of 12 months of coverage at all times. Any reduction below that threshold requires explicit board authorization. The reserve can only be used for two purposes — paying preferred stock dividends and servicing interest on debt. Any other use of those funds also requires board approval.

Beyond the cash reserve, Strategy is counting its bitcoin monetization capacity as part of its liquidity cushion. Combined, the $2.55 billion reserve and $1.25 billion in authorized BTC monetization capacity give the company $3.80 billion in total coverage — the equivalent of 25.9 months of preferred dividend and interest obligations.

STRC dividend increase

Strategy raised the dividend rate on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, known as STRC, by 50 basis points to 12% per year. The increase takes effect for dividend periods with record dates on or after July 1, 2026. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point, so the increase moves the rate from 11.5% to 12%.

The company said its target is for STRC to trade between $99 and $100 over time, close to its $100 stated value. STRC has risen 9% on the news. Strategy said it will evaluate the STRC dividend rate on a monthly basis, taking into account trading levels, credit spreads, bitcoin price and volatility, and the overall state of its balance sheet.

Two buyback programs

The board authorized up to $1 billion in repurchases of its Digital Credit Securities — a category that includes STRC, STRF, STRK, and STRD, four series of preferred stock the company has issued.

It also authorized up to $1 billion in buybacks of its Class A common stock.

Neither program obligates the company to purchase any specific amount of securities, and both can be modified, suspended, or canceled at any time. Repurchases under both programs can be made through open-market purchases, block trades, private negotiations, or tender offers.

CEO Phong Le framed the buyback programs as a shift in how Strategy operates. “Strategy is evolving from one-way capital issuance to active capital management,” he said. “We intend to move between issuing securities when capital is attractive and repurchasing securities when our instruments trade at levels that make buybacks accretive.”

Neither buyback program will draw from the USD reserve. If Strategy funds buybacks through bitcoin sales, those sales fall under the BTC Monetization Program.

The Bitcoin Monetization Program

The Bitcoin Monetization Program authorizes Strategy to sell BTC for three specific purposes:

1. to build or replenish the USD reserve (up to $1.25 billion),

2. to fund preferred dividends and interest payments when management judges BTC sales more favorable than issuing new stock,

3. and to fund buybacks of preferred or common stock.

Any sale outside those three purposes requires a new board vote.

We’re gonna need more charts. pic.twitter.com/xVASOEnSw8

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) June 28, 2026

The program does not obligate the company to sell any bitcoin.

CFO Andrew Kang said the program gives Strategy a tool to use part of its bitcoin reserve without abandoning its core thesis.

“Bitcoin is capital,” Kang said.

“This program gives Strategy the flexibility to use a portion of its BTC Reserve to strengthen Digital Credit, fund dividend payments and interest expense, and fund accretive repurchases when BTC monetization is more favorable than issuing common equity.”

Founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said bitcoin remains the company’s primary treasury asset.

“Digital Credit requires liquidity, discipline, and active capital management,” he said. “This framework is designed to strengthen credit quality and enable the Company to reduce expected preferred stock dividend payments when accretive.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 09:40

Watch: Giant Explosion Rocks Lebanon As IDF Destroys Hezbollah's Underground Drone Complex

In a move bound to test the limits of the fragile Washington-brokered regional ceasefire, Israel has unleashed massive ordinance on southern Lebanon, saying it has utterly destroyed a huge underground complex built and used by Hezbollah.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have freshly announced that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) completely demolished a massive Hezbollah underground fortress embedded deep beneath the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Zoun. The village itself was leveled, with the IDF having released footage showing an unusually strong explosion:

Israel says its military destroyed a 200+ meter-long underground Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/XajqdpePGW

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 29, 2026

The military revealed the subterranean complex spanned roughly 200 meters and plunged more than 25 meters deep - serving as a critical hub where Hezbollah allegedly assembled, stored, as well as launched Iranian-sourced suicide drones.

Notably, Israel had previously postponed the demolition following intense pressure from the Trump administration to halt all kinetic activity in southern Lebanon. However, either Israel's patience just ran out, or else Washington is secretly still giving the greenlight to move against such infrastructure.

Ahead of the detonation, Netanyahu and Katz noted that Israel did provide a courtesy heads-up to the Trump administration and to US officials representative in Lebanon.

"Troops of the 551st Brigade Combat Team and Yahalom forces, under the command of the 91st Division, destroyed an underground route located in the village of Majdal Zoun, in the security zone in southern Lebanon," the IDF spokesperson announced. 

A chief allegation is that "The compound was built using technology and knowledge from the Iranian terror regime," the IDF statement continued.  Also, as cited in Reuters, "The ⁠Israeli statement said the tunnel contained hundreds of weapons and ​launchers."

While the IDF has yet to issue its official post-operation briefing, it took the unusual step of warning residents in northern Israel to expect a massive, earth-shaking blast.

The military had actually escorted journalists on a propaganda tour of the complex earlier this month to showcase the scale of the threat, amid the ongoing Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon.

⭕️ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said the Israeli military destroyed what they described as a Hezbollah tunnel and underground infrastructure in the Majdal Zoun area of southern Lebanon.

🔹 They said Israel notified the United States… https://t.co/atvK4kLqmJ

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) June 28, 2026

Despite the nominal ceasefire, Israel is clearly signaling that it will not tolerate a Hezbollah reconstruction phase on its border, also wishing to permanently secure a security 'buffer zone' to prevent Hezbollah missiles and drones from being fired into northern Israel, something which has been happening for years spanning back to the Gaza war.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 09:20

Futures Rise As Dip-Buyers Lift Tech Stocks

US equity futures are higher led by Tech as Mag7 leads the group higher and points to a reversal of last week’s profit-taking, as traders position for the end of the first half. A shortened week will likely focus on a speech from the Fed’s Warsh on Wednesday and payrolls on Thursday.  As of 8:30am, S&P futures are 0.9% higher as traders bought the dip after a rotation out of this year’s top-performing stocks sent the US benchmark to its second-worst week of the quarter; Nasdaq futures gain 1.2%, with both Software and Semis higher, which may be more driven by period-end reshuffling than a shift in sentiment. A mix of space, software and artificial-intelligence infrastructure names led premarket gains. Comcast Corp. jumped 23% on a plan to split its business. Cyclicals ex-Materials are leading Defensives ex-HC with the AI theme bid up across sectors. Bond yields are +1-2bp higher with the Dollar down a touch. Commodities are lower but the Energy complex is bid following another series of attacks between US / Iran; WTI back above $70/bbl, and Brent climbed 0.8% to $72.59 a barrel following weekend flare-ups between the US and Iran. While the two sides have since agreed to halt the attacks, the pace of shipments through the chokepoint has slowed, with shipowners likely to remain wary of crossing the strait. Gold / silver are down 1-2%, base metals with a slight bid, and Ags mostly lowers. Today’s macro data focus is on the June Dallas Fed activity with the balance of the holiday-shortened US week including June jobs report Thursday and ISM-Mfg, JOLTS and ADP.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are all higher (Alphabet +1%, Amazon +1%, Apple +0.1%, Meta +1.5%, Microsoft +1.7%, Nvidia +1%, Tesla +0.8%)

• Chip stocks are rebounding following a 5.3% decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index on Friday, with equipment stocks leading gains after South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix set out plans to build two chipmaking plants.
• Comcast (CMCSA) is up 22% after the company said it plans to separate its media businesses from its cable-TV and internet operations, spinning off NBCUniversal and Sky into a new publicly traded company in a bid to increase value.
• Doximity (DOCS) falls 4% after BofA double downgraded the healthcare software company to underperform from buy, citing limited clarity on the near-term trajectory of margins as well as execution risks related to the pivot to AI.
• Iridium (IRDM) climbs 20% after Rocket Lab agreed to buy the company for $54 a share in a cash-and-stock transaction that puts the satellite communications company at about $8 billion in enterprise value.
• Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) slips 3% after agreeing to combine with building materials supplier Lhoist North America in a transaction valued at $13.5 billion, including debt.
• Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) jumps 14% after the biotech said the FDA had approved its drug for treating an inflammatory disorder that affects the tissues around eyes.

In other corporate newsoOnline spending across all retailers in the US hit $26.4 billion during Amazon’s annual Prime Day sale, according to Adobe, narrowly beating the firm’s earlier estimate of $26.3 billion. The FDA approved AbbVie’s Skyrizi as the first IL-23 inhibitor approved in the US for pediatric patients six years of age and older weighing less than 40 kilograms.

In AI news, Anthropic won US approval to restore some access to its Mythos 5 model after resolving Trump administration concerns about the technology’s potential threats to national security. Google has placed limits on Meta’s use of its Gemini AI models because it could not provide as much computing capacity as the social media company wanted, according to the Financial Times. China is said to have matched Anthropic in cybersecurity, resetting the AI race, according to the WSJ. 

As the S&P 500 heads for its best quarter since 2020, one of the biggest debates is how much further high-flying chipmakers can push markets higher after an almost one-way rally turned more volatile in recent weeks. US equities are likely to enjoy another robust earnings season on the back of a “solid macro backdrop” and the AI investment boom, according to Goldman strategists. RBC Capital Markets strategists raised their 12-month target for the S&P 500 index to 8,150 points.

“It wasn’t a full-blown selloff, but more a rotation of the kind that we saw many times in the last 12 months,” said Guy Miller at Zurich Insurance. “There are strong fundamentals in terms of super-normal profits. In semiconductors in particular, there’s still clearly a supply-demand imbalance.”

As we reported over the weekend, hedge funds dumped global TMT stocks last week, with the combined total reaching its highest level in over 10 years, according to Goldman Sachs’ Prime desk. 

Deutsche Bank strategists confirmed that tech funds saw record outflows, as investors trimmed their aggregate equity positioning last week with overall equity positioning now slightly below neutral. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson notes market breadth is improving as earnings recover beyond megacap tech, crude prices fall and crowded AI momentum trades in hyperscalers and semiconductors come under pressure. 

Still, US equities are likely to enjoy another robust earnings season on the back of a “solid macro backdrop” and the AI investment boom, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. And RBC strategists raised their 12-month target for the S&P 500 index.

A strong first half for stocks has historically been a good sign for the rest of the year in the market. Whether that holds again is the question in light of all the wild cards on the horizon. Despite the “chip wreck” last week, the sector is on track to post the best first half performance versus the S&P 500 ever.

The surge in market leverage, stemming in part from the massive growth of levered ETF products, retail margin accounts and hedge fund deposits at prime brokers, is stoking worries that it may exacerbate the next crisis. And an AI bust, inflation and fiscal stress are among the most alarming threats to global prosperity at present, the BIS warned in its annual report published on Sunday.

Traders will shift their focus this week to the annual gathering of central bankers in Portugal, where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will make his public debut outside the US. Aside from hints on interest rates, questions over financial stability, including those linked to the artificial-intelligence boom, will be among the themes under discussion. Another prominent event will be the monthly US jobs report on Thursday, the culmination of the usual flurry of labor data that opens each month.

“After the hawkish pause of the Fed earlier in the month, one would have expected market exuberance to stall, but that doesn’t seem to be the case,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. “That means the market believes that US exceptionalism is there to stay. It also means that the rally will likely broaden toward other corners of the market.”

Fed’s Barkin warned that inflation is too high, though he sees tentative signs that price pressures may moderate soon. The calendar for this week includes the annual central bankers’ gathering in Portugal, with an appearance by new Fed Chair Warsh, and US June jobs report on Thursday — likely to be a third straight extremely strong print, according to Bloomberg Economics.

“Our economists continue to expect a relatively hawkish policy path, with two rate hikes penciled in later this year,” noted Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank AG. “However, near-term guidance is likely to remain limited, leaving markets to take their cues primarily from incoming data.”

Europe's Stoxx 600 is edging lower, with tech outperforming in Europe too but being offset by declines for health care and consumer stocks. Tech and media stocks rise most, while construction shares lag. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Bridgepoint gains as much as 12%, the most since April, after the UK private equity firm announced it has agreed to buy Florida-based Kayne Anderson Real Estate in the group’s first push into the US property market
• Nagarro shares rise as much as 92% to €77.50 after Galaxy Germany, a holding company for Persistent Systems, said it plans to offer €81 per share to buy the IT services firm
• Prosus shares rise as much as 4% after the company reported strong results for fiscal year 2026 that were in line with expectations. Analysts welcome a 40% increase in the dividend
• Elmera rises as much as 3.2% after the Norwegian electricity provider agreed to sell itself to Finnish rival Fortum, which beat an earlier bid from Spain’s Audax. Fortum shares gain as much as 1.1%
• Ipsen shares climb as much as 1.9%, making them among the biggest gainers in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Monday. The French company’s deal to buy Kartos Therapeutics is “strategically sensible,” according to Barclays
• Gerresheimer shares fall as much as 5.8% after the German firm lowered its guidance for the 2026 financial year, citing a challenging economic environment, some project delays on the part of customers and operational challenges
• Novo Nordisk shares drop as much as 2%, underperforming the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Monday morning, with JPMorgan noting an expected guidance raise is already reflected in current consensus figures

Asian markets traded higher on Monday after South Korean stocks recouped most of their losses following massive investment plans by heavyweight chipmakers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2% after falling as much as 1% earlier in the session. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix slumped more than 6% before erasing the bulk of their declines, leading to a similar move in the Kospi. In an ambitious plan aimed at cementing South Korea’s status as a technological powerhouse, the nation is planning investments of at least 1,350 trillion won ($880 billion) from companies including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix into chips and data centers. Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 0.2% higher while benchmarks in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand climbed. In geopolitics, the US and Iran agreed to stop attacking each other before peace talks resume this week over the Strait of Hormuz and other issues. 

“At this point, the market appears to be driven much more by sentiment than fundamentals,” said Kim Dojoon, chief investment officer at Zian Investment Management. “Price action has been concentrated in the large electronics names,” with developments in semiconductor pricing dynamics weighing on the outlook over time.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed, with the euro holding around $1.14 and sterling hovering just above $1.32.

In rates, bond yields in the US, Europe and the UK are higher, with gilts slightly underperforming and yields up by two or three basis points across the curve ahead of a speech by would-be prime minister Andy Burnham. Treasuries are mixed, keeping yields within a basis point of Friday’s closing levels, as oil futures stabilize near four-month low with US and Iran halting attacks, while dip buyers emerge in US stocks, following a rotation out of this year’s top performers. Front-end and belly yields are slightly higher on the day, long-end tenors slightly richer, flattening 5s30s spread by around 1bp; 10-year near 4.37% is little changed, similar to bunds and gilts in the sector. IG dollar issuance slate includes five names so far; supply this week is expected to slow, with dealers forecasting $10 billion to $15 billion of sales. Treasury coupon issuance resumes next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year tenors

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures, off session highs, remain more than 1% higher; Brent climbed 0.8% to $72.59 a barrel following weekend flare-ups between the US and Iran. While the two sides have since agreed to halt the attacks, the pace of shipments through the chokepoint has slowed, with shipowners likely to remain wary of crossing the strait. Gold is down by about $40/oz to around $4,050/oz.

US economic data calendar includes only Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30am; ahead this week before Thursday are June consumer confidence, May JOLTS job openings, June ADP employment change and June ISM manufacturing. Fed speaker slate empty for the session. Chairman Warsh participates in an ECB panel event on Wednesday in Sintra

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The U.S. and Iran have agreed to end days of back-and-forth fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and resume peace talks, said officials from the U.S. and other countries involved in the negotiations.
• Commercial shipping continued to move through the Strait of Hormuz at a reduced level after recent attacks on two vessels. A handful of vessels made open transits over the weekend, according to tracking data. BBG
• China’s central bank set the interest rate on its new overnight liquidity tool at a level that was below expectations, according to people familiar with the matter, in what some economists see as a de facto rate cut that could push down market borrowing costs. The PBOC said it conducted 300 billion yuan ($44 billion) of overnight reverse repurchase agreements in open market operations on Monday. BBG
• China has expanded the list of Japanese companies and organizations on its export control list in Beijing’s latest move to curb what it describes as a “new type of militarism” from the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. FT
• Vladimir Putin expects US negotiators to visit Russia for Ukraine talks once Washington shifts focus from Iran, but rejected a proposal to halt long-range strikes. He acknowledged fuel supply problems and said he’s considering a full ban on diesel exports. BBG
• Investors have never been more eager to ratchet up their stock returns through margin loans and funds that amplify gains and losses. U.S. margin debt, or what investors borrow from their brokerages to buy securities, rose 54% to a record $1.4 trillion in May from a year earlier, according to Finra data. Meanwhile, high-risk leveraged exchange-traded funds that produce double or triple the daily move of underlying stocks are growing rapidly, as is trading in options tied to them. WSJ
• Comcast shares jumped premarket (CMCSA +24%) after it announced plans to separate into two companies with a tax-free spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky. BBG
• The Supreme Court is set to rule on two of Trump’s most audacious gambits: his bids to oust Fed governor Lisa Cook and to roll back automatic birthright citizenship. The judges will release the final seven rulings of their term this week, starting today. BBG
• Private credit’s latest bet is Buy Now, Pay Later loans. Supporters say the consumer assets offer attractive returns, but critics worry about parallels to the subprime mortgage crisis. BBG
• Financials will kick off the Q2 2026 earnings season the week of July 13th. By the first week of August, roughly 75% of S&P 500 market cap will have reported results. Nvidia (NVDA), the largest stock in the market, will report on August 26th. GIR
• US House Speaker Johnson said he will send the Housing Bill over to President Trump on Monday: Fox News.
• S&P affirmed the US at AA+; Outlook Stable.

Iran Conflict

• US CENTCOM announced that it conducted strikes against multiple Iranian targets on Saturday, on the orders of US President Trump, "in direct response to continued Iranian aggression against commercial shipping." In retaliation, Iran's IRGC responded by hitting 8 US military installations at the Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait and the US Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, according to IRNA. However, in the early hours of Monday, a US official said technical talks with Iran are slated to continue on all areas of the MoU, while the official added that both sides will stand down for now and that vessels can move freely.
• US official said Iranian drone and missile attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain failed and that all Iranian projectiles were intercepted or missed, according to ABC News.
• Iran cancelled technical talks with the US scheduled on Sunday and cited recent attacks on the country and a failure to meet conditions outlined in the MoU with the US. However, it was separately reported that the US and Iran agreed to halt strikes and meet this week, according to Axios citing a senior US official. Furthermore, US and Iran technical talks that were scheduled to be held on Tuesday in Switzerland, which would focus on nuclear and other issues, have reportedly been changed and will now be held in Doha on Tuesday and will focus on the Strait of Hormuz and recent escalation.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said the US and Israel have violated the MoU, particularly the first clause, which hinders the restoration of regional security, while he also stated that Iran seeks to implement the MoU in good faith in accordance with the principle of commitment for commitment and that they will act decisively against contract breaches.
• Mediators have reportedly set up communication channels to de-escalate any incidents with technical talks set to continue, according to reports.
• Iran's President said they will get USD 6bln from Qatar of the USD 12bln of Iranian funds that were frozen due to US restrictions within Qatar, journalist Mallick reported.
• Israeli army said it attacked 3 Hezbollah headquarters in southern Lebanon last night.
• Israeli military has received no orders to withdraw from Lebanon, according to Al-Jadeed and Haaretz, citing an Israeli military source.
• Instructions have been given to the Israeli army to reduce the destruction of homes and infrastructure in areas of southern Lebanon it controls, Al Hadath reported citing Israeli media.
• Israel destroyed a Hezbollah underground tunnel in southern Lebanon, while Israeli forces reportedly shelled a Syrian village near the Golan Heights.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz said the IDF will remain in the southern Lebanon "security zone" after destroying a Hezbollah underground facility.
• Iran and Oman held the first meeting on the Strait of Hormuz, within the framework of Article 5 of the MoU, Mehr reported.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mixed, heading closer to month- and quarter-end, while participants reflected on the geopolitical developments over the weekend, in which the US and Iran conducted tit-for-tat strikes. Although, the sides have since agreed to halt attacks and will meet for talks this week. ASX 200 traded rangebound with the index kept afloat by strength in tech, telecoms, healthcare and the consumer sectors, while utilities, industrials and real estate lagged. Furthermore, price action was contained in the absence of any pertinent data and with the ACCC announcing that the excise tax cut on fuel is to be lowered from July 1st to August 2nd. Nikkei 225 continued its pullback from recent record highs and slipped beneath the 69,000 level amid tech-related weakness, although the index is off today's worst levels as participants also digested strong Retail Sales data. Moreover, reports that the government is to call for “appropriate” monetary policy in its basic policy guidelines, in an apparent effort to dissuade the BoJ from further hiking rates, also boosted sentiment. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are positive, albeit to varying degrees, with outperformance in Hong Kong amid strength in biotech and a rebound in hyperscalers. Baidu was boosted as its AI chip unit Kunlunxin targets a USD 50bln Hong Kong listing. However, the mainland was contained after somewhat mixed industrial profits data, and despite the PBoC conducting overnight reverse repo operations as flagged.

Top Asian News

• South Korea announced a new AI and chip spending package, which includes huge investment from the likes of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS). 
• PBoC injected CNY 157.5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.40%, while it announced CNY 300bln in overnight reverse repos with the overnight reverse repo rate said to be 1.25% vs exp. 1.35%, according to Bloomberg.
• Japan’s government is expected to call for “appropriate” monetary policy in its basic policy guidelines, in an apparent effort to dissuade the BoJ from further hiking rates, according to Bloomberg citing a document.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) started the day tentatively, but have gradually edged off best levels. The latest US-Iran flare up has had little impact on trade this morning, with traders ultimately focusing more on any potential disruptions to the Strait rather than fresh strikes. Focus in the APAC session was on South Korea, where it announced a new KRW 1,350tln AI and chip spending package. The total plan includes promoting a semiconductor fab worth KRW 800tln, 81tln in a packaging hub and 550tln to build AI data centres. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are to be heavily involved, with the two Cos planning to build two chipmaking plants each for KRW 800tln. Even though the announcement helped reverse the earlier losses (Samsung Electronics -4.8%, SK Hynix -1.7%), analysts at Morningstar think that, if the new commitments are standalone investments, they could imply material oversupply risk over the next decade.

Top European News

• Spanish Economy Ministry said the Government expects the economy to grow by 2.6% in 2026 (prev. 2.2%).

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the USD and to varying degrees. The Kiwi slightly outperforms vs peers, whilst the GBP and EUR follow closely behind. The JPY resides at the bottom of the list. Outside of the G10 space, the KRW is weaker this morning after South Korea unveiled a USD 1tln chip/AI investment plan. Potentially on fears surrounding a) how Korea aims to finance the government's portion of the investment, b) pressure in SK Hynix/Samsung shares, which leads to outflows in domestic markets, c) heightened geopolitical risk, and the associated inflationary impacts on the region.
• DXY is incrementally weaker against the USD, and currently holds within a 101.15 to 101.39 range. Focus for the index over the weekend was on the increased geopolitical risk, which ultimately highlighted the uncertain nature of the current US-Iran MoU. As a reminder, the US and Iran conducted tit-for-tat strikes; thereafter, the pair agreed to halt strikes and resume meetings this week. It seems to be the case that markets are happy to ignore the short-term flare-ups, and broadly focus on whether there are any material disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
• GBP is slightly firmer, holding within a narrow 1.3191 to 1.32282 range. Really not much driving the action this morning for the GBP, but focus ahead will be on commentary from likely PM Burnham. He is expected to announce plans to devolve powers and money from the central government to England’s regions. This would mark his first major policy speech since announcing his intention to stand for leadership of the ruling Labour Party.
• That aside, speculation around the next UK Chancellor continues. The Sun reports that current Work and Pension Secretary McFadden is a contender, under the belief he would steady the market. However, Miliband remains a contender, with a source to the Sun remarking that it is now between McFadden and Miliband. The latter remains the worst option for markets.
• JPY remains the slight underperformer this morning. USD/JPY currently holds towards near-term highs at 161.95, and within a 161.72-161.88 range. Speculation surrounding intervention remains heightened, particularly heading into US Independence Day. Japan favours intervention during periods of low volume, given the improved effectiveness when attempting to strengthen the JPY.

Fixed Income

• Fixed income benchmarks initially started the week on the backfoot as energy prices opened higher on renewed US-Iran strikes over the weekend, but have since come off lows as crude benchmarks fall from highs. This came after the US and Iran agreed to halt strikes, and meet on Tuesday.
• Gilts (-23 ticks) are slightly softer, ahead of MP Burnham's speech at 11:30BST/06:30EDT. It is to last around 20 minutes, focusing on his economic plans. We do not anticipate a Q&A. He is also expected to focus on expanding the devolution of control away from London, and could also touch on nuances around tax levels, housing stock, defence spending and within that, possibly war bonds. Welfare reform will also feature as part of the move to give local authorities more control. The UK benchmark currently trades in the lower part of a 89.24-89.58 range.
• Bunds (-8 ticks), likewise, are rangebound (127.35-127.51), despite a hotter-than-expected inflation print from Spain. HICP Y/Y printed at 3.6% vs exp. 3.4%, well above the ECB's 2% target, while the core figure ticked lower to 2.9% from 3.0%. If the trend of lower core figures follows through to other EZ economies, with France, Italy and Germany set to release their inflation figures later this week, this could signal that the ECB would be willing to look through higher headline figures. The lower core figures would also support the view put forward by ECB President Lagarde, in which she said, "We see no evidence yet of de-anchoring of inflation expectations or second-round effects that would warrant a more forceful policy response at this stage."
• USTs (-2+ ticks) follow their European counterparts, lacking any clear direction, with an appearance by Fed Chair Warsh at Sintra on Wednesday and the US jobs report on Thursday going to be the key driver for Treasuries. Warsh is likely to maintain a slightly hawkish tone and give little in terms of guidance. Ahead of the jobs report, economists at Capital Economics said further downside in yields could lose momentum, with the June report due to be strong again. The economist states that the increasingly strong labour market is not a reason to delay tightening, which could be the biggest near-term risk to USTs.

Commodities

• A choppy morning for crude as we digest the initial escalation and then the easing of tensions between the US and Iran over the weekend, with the near-term focus now on Tuesday’s technical talks in Doha.
• Just after the open, WTI and Brent hit highs of USD 70.97/bbl and USD 73.39/bbl respectively. While firmer by over USD 1.50/bbl on the day at the peak, the move failed to test Friday’s respective USD 71.86/bbl and USD 75.13/bbl tops, and by extension numerous levels thereafter.
• Benchmarks pulled back in acknowledgement of the initial Axios scoop that the side would be meeting this week, and, ahead of that, have agreed to stop strikes. Nonetheless, there still appears to be conflict occurring in Gaza and Lebanon. As the European morning proceeded, WTI and Brent have clambered off lows and trades firmer by USD 0.92/bbl and USD 0.66/bbl respectively.
• Spot gold picked up at the end of last week, reacting to the initial US strikes in the Hormuz area. The yellow metal ended the week at USD 4091, just off Friday’s USD 4096/oz best, though markedly shy of that week’s USD 4198/oz peak. For today, as above, geopolitical tensions have moderated somewhat and as such, XAU has lost some of its haven allure, slipping into the red by around USD 30/oz, with the US equity tone also bid and tech-led after the huge Korean AI and Chip spending plan, alongside confirmation that SPCX is to join the Nasdaq.
• Base metals are mixed, despite the firmer US tone. Instead, reflecting the mixed APAC handover and acknowledging the marginal deterioration in the European tone across the morning. 3M LME Copper is just about in the green, but in a thin and familiar range, shy of the mid-May peak.
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) said operations at its oil refinery and petrochemical plant in northwest France were impacted by a power outage on Friday.
• Spain’s Bilbao Port Executive President urged the EU to delay the 2027 ban on Russian LNG or risk becoming overdependent on the US, according to FT.
• Oman LNG's first LNG carrier has reportedly departed the nation, Oman News Agency reported.
• US Agriculture Secretary Rollins said the US and Mexico opened a sterile fly production facility in Metapa, Mexico, which is expected to produce up to 100mln sterile flies a week.

Trade/Tariffs

• China's MOFCOM said 20 Japanese firms were added to the export control list for links to Japan's military. MOFCOM stated that measures only target some Japanese entities and apply only to dual-use items, while they do not affect normal economic and trade exchanges between China and Japan.

Central Banks

• Fed Chair Warsh is reportedly set to announce task force details in the coming few weeks, NYT reported citing sources,
• Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) said inflation is too high, but he sees some signs that price pressures could moderate soon, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB's Kazaks said there is currently no need for multiple ECB hikes in a rushed way, according to Econostream. Probabilities of the negative scenarios have fallen massively, with the shock and persistence being smaller while a smaller shock reduces the risk of non-linearities and second-round effects.
• BoE's chief economist Pill said the BoE is still experimenting with scenarios and external presentations.

Geopolitics

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine targeted the Slavyansk-na-Kubani oil refinery in the Krasnodar region and a refinery in the Yaroslavl region of Russia, as part of Kyiv’s “long-range sanctions” campaign against Russia.
• Ukraine's air force said a UAV was detected in the Dnipropetrovsk region, while explosions were reported in the suburbs of Kharkiv.
• Russian President Putin said Russia has proposed that both sides stop striking each other’s deep targets and warned that if such strikes continue, Russian strikes on Ukraine will become more powerful with more severe consequences.
• Russian President Putin said Russia is expecting US negotiators once the US is less busy with Iran, while he also stated that Russia is ready for talks with the US, according to AFP.

US Event Calendar

• 10:30 am: June Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 1, prior 0.4

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We have published our quarterly global markets survey, which includes a range of fascinating insights—from expectations around events in Iran and where bubbles may be forming in financial markets, to how AI is being used at work and views on its potential to replace jobs. It also covers our regular questions and, perhaps most importantly, predictions for the World Cup. You 

Tensions in the Iran conflict have continued to escalate since Friday, with a series of tit-for-tat strikes around the Strait of Hormuz despite a fragile ceasefire framework. The latest flare-up began with attacks on commercial shipping, prompting successive US strikes on Iranian-linked targets, while Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on US-linked sites in the Gulf, including bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Over the weekend, the conflict intensified further with additional strikes on vessels and military targets, leading to heightened maritime security risks and the Joint Maritime Information Center raising the threat level in the Strait to “substantial.” However, overnight developments suggest a tentative de-escalation, with the US and Iran reportedly agreeing to halt further attacks ahead of renewed technical talks in Doha this week. Both sides are said to be standing down for now, allowing shipping flows to continue, although disputes over key provisions of the memorandum of understanding—particularly around control and potential costs for transit through Hormuz—mean the situation remains fragile and risks to regional stability persist. Brent is up +0.71% this morning.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning. Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are providing some support, though fresh regional trade frictions are weighing on sentiment after China imposed tighter export controls on 20 Japanese entities, requiring government approval for shipments. Beijing said the move reflects concerns over Japan’s military posture. The KOSPI (-2.24%) is the weakest performer, with technology stocks still under pressure following last week’s semiconductor volatility, while the Nikkei (-0.88%) is also lower. In contrast, the Hang Seng (+2.12%) is outperforming, with the CSI (+0.08%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) posting modest gains, and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.35%) edging higher. US equity futures are firmer, with both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures up +0.57%, while 10yr UST yields are +1.2bps at 4.38%.

On the policy front, the PBOC has introduced an overnight reverse repo facility, setting the rate at 1.25%. This marks another step in modernising its monetary policy framework and improving short-term liquidity management. The new rate sits 15bps below the existing seven-day reverse repo rate of 1.40%, which remains the main policy benchmark.

In Japan, early data showed retail sales rose 5.3% YoY in May, well above expectations of 3.0% and up from April’s downwardly revised 2.8%.

Global attention this week will centre on the US labour market, with the June employment report due on Thursday ahead of the Independence Day holiday. A reminder that the US will be 250 years old this week and Peter and Henry have written a piece explaining how it's continually prospered over the period and the likelihood of it doing so going forward. 

Alongside that, central bank communication will be in focus at the ECB’s Sintra forum (today through Wednesday), while inflation data across Europe and activity indicators in Asia—notably China’s PMIs and Japan’s monthly data—round out a busy global calendar.

In the US, our economists expect payroll growth on Thursday to slow to +75k (from +172k previously), with private payrolls rising by around +90k. There is some risk of seasonals pulling down the numbers as they have in recent years around this time. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are seen unchanged at +0.3% month-on-month. Hours worked are also expected to remain steady at 34.3, leaving nominal income growth broadly stable.

Ahead of that, today brings the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, while tomorrow sees the May JOLTS report, where markets will watch for any shifts in hiring, quits and layoffs amid a still subdued hiring environment. Wednesday then features the ADP employment report (our economists expect +110k) alongside the ISM manufacturing index (forecast 53.8 vs 54.0 previously). These releases should help set expectations going into Thursday’s payrolls. Beyond the labour market, tomorrow also sees the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index (our economists expect 94.1 vs 93.1 previously).

On policy, attention will turn to Wednesday, when Fed Chair Warsh speaks at the ECB’s Sintra forum. Our economists continue to expect a relatively hawkish policy path, with two rate hikes pencilled in later this year. However, near-term guidance is likely to remain limited, leaving markets to take their cues primarily from incoming data.

Looking beyond the US, Europe’s main event is the aforementioned ECB’s annual Sintra conference, which begins today and runs through Wednesday, featuring remarks from major central bank leaders. In parallel, inflation data will be a key focus, with Spain and Belgium reporting today, followed by Germany, France and Italy tomorrow, and the Eurozone aggregate on Wednesday. Our economists expect inflation of 2.46% YoY in Germany, 2.30% in France, 3.23% in Italy, and 2.95% for the Eurozone. Switzerland will also release CPI on Thursday. In the UK, the BoE publishes its credit conditions surveys on Thursday and the DMP survey on Friday.

In Asia, China releases various PMIs in the first half of the week. In Japan, today’s retail sales (out earlier) is followed by industrial production tomorrow, where our economists expect a +1.4% month-on-month increase. The highlight, however, will be the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey on Wednesday, which is expected to show broadly steady sentiment and may reinforce the case for further gradual policy tightening.
Recapping last week now, and markets were rocked by a global tech sell-off, even as oil prices declined amid increasing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. So both the S&P 500 (-1.95%, -0.05% on Friday) and the Nasdaq (-4.60%, -0.24% Friday) declined, whilst the Magnificent 7 (-5.46%, +1.47%) entered correction territory, down -12.6% from its May 28 peak. A large part of the tech weakness was driven by chipmakers, as the Philly Semiconductor Index dropped by -7.94% (-5.29% Friday), despite a brief reprieve midweek after Micron beat revenue estimates for Q4. In Asia, the Kospi (-5.81%, -7.08% on Friday) and Nikkei (-2.65%, -4.15%) also slumped.

The equity sell-off came despite Brent crude prices (-10.65%, -4.34% on Friday) falling back to below their pre-war levels at $71.99/bbl, as flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to ramp up. The oil price decline has eased fears about an inflation shock and aggressive rate hikes. That was also helped by some positive US data last week, including Thursday’s PCE inflation which showed headline PCE up only +0.4% on the month (vs. +0.5% expected).

So investors dialled back expectations of Fed rate hikes, with the amount of hikes priced by December down -7.3bps to 32bps over the week. In turn, that led the 2yr Treasury yield -8.7bps lower over the week (-3.1bps on Friday), whilst the 10yr yield (-8.4bps, -2.3bps on Friday) fell to 4.37%. Pricing of ECB rate hikes by December also fell -12.8bps over the week to 24bps. Germany’s 2yr (-12.9bps, -1.1bps on Friday) and 10yr (-13.4bps, -0.6bps on Friday) declined in response.

Finally, in Europe UK assets outperformed as Prime Minister Starmer’s resignation announcement on Monday helped ease political uncertainty with Andy Burnham so far unchallenged as Starmer’s successor. Yields on 10yr gilts (-11.1bps, +3.2bps Friday) fell, while the FTSE 100 rose +1.40% (-0.21% on Friday). That helped keep the STOXX 600 stable over the week (+0.04%, -0.68% Friday), even as the DAX (-1.26%, -1.29% Friday) and CAC 40 (-0.55%, -0.43% Friday) fell after Friday’s slump.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 08:48

US Boosts Venezuela Earthquake Aid To $300 Million As 50,000 Remain Missing

Summary:

• US Increases Earthquake aid
• Aftershock rattles Caracas on Monday morning 
• +50,000 people remain missing according to independent monitoring platform
• US Military Begins Humanitarian Operation In Quake-Ravaged Venezuela

US Increases Earthquake Aid

The US has increased its financial commitment to Venezuela's earthquake response to more than $300 million, according to the State Department.

We reported this past weekend that U.S. military personnel were, in fact, on the ground and had begun search-and-rescue operations.

The latest pledge includes an additional $50 million in funding for partner operations, on top of previously announced humanitarian funding.

The money is intended to support life-saving relief efforts as hospitals, emergency responders, and aid groups struggle to manage the fallout from last week's twin quakes.

The death toll is expected to climb in the days ahead, as 50,000 people remain missing, according to an independent monitoring platform. The official death toll stands at around 1,500.

 

Earlier this morning, a 4.6-magnitude quake rattled Caracas.

Meanwhile... 

The devastating earthquakes in Venezuela exposed exactly how the socialist government built housing for their people. Look at this video from La Guaira.

The buildings in the Misión Vivienda program were constructed using expanded polystyrene (EPS) panels coated with a thin layer… pic.twitter.com/N4qLX7W3Xa

— Maila Maria Rosa (@MailaMariaRosa) June 28, 2026 Boots On The Ground? US Military Begins Humanitarian Operation In Quake-Ravaged Venezuela 

At least 1,400 people were killed and 3,360 injured after two powerful earthquakes struck Venezuela on Wednesday evening, officials said.

Google ha revelado hoy los detalles sobre cómo funcionó su sistema de alertas de sismos durante los terremotos dobletes del día 24 de junio de 2026 en Venezuela.

La alerta le fue enviada a un total de 11.4 millones de dispositivos que tienen el sistema operativo Android en… pic.twitter.com/lF47EqxZWU

— HevercastroB (@HeverCastroB) June 28, 2026

The coastal state of La Guaira, near Caracas, suffered the worst damage, with entire condo towers reduced to rubble.

The death toll is expected to climb in the days ahead, as 64,500 people remain missing, according to an independent monitoring platform.

U.S. Southern Command has deployed a large package of naval and aviation assets, including Navy warships, transport aircraft, and helicopters, to support humanitarian assistance operations on the ground in Venezuela. The scale of the deployment suggests the Trump administration is moving quickly to establish command-and-control nodes for humanitarian operations.

The U.S. government account, USA en Español on X, says that U.S. Marines from Littoral Combat Force-24 and U.S. sailors from the USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD 28) delivered critically important humanitarian aid supplies to the port of La Guaira on Saturday night.

Entrega de ayuda vital en Venezuela

Anoche, infantes de marina estadounidenses de la Fuerza de Combate Litoral-24 y marineros estadounidenses del USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD 28) entregaron suministros de asistencia humanitaria de vital importancia a bordo de una lancha de… https://t.co/lUpv4UVX5k

— USA en Español (@USAenEspanol) June 28, 2026

SOUTHCOM reports that the MV-22B Osprey and UH-1Y Venom helicopters are now conducting search-and-rescue operations in La Guaira.

International partners working together to save lives in Venezuela:@USMC MV-22B Osprey and UH-1Y Venom crews are providing vital transport support to get U.S. and partner nation search and rescue teams on scene to save lives. Pictured here are Marine crews airlifting Argentine,… pic.twitter.com/Ihug4BlwnV

— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) June 28, 2026

There have been around-the-clock shipments of supplies from the U.S. via a vast network of C-17 Globemaster and C-130 Hercules aircraft.

The @usairforce has been working around the clock to accelerate the delivery of vital, life-saving help to Venezuela.

C-17 Globemasters and C-130 Hercules aircraft are airlifting critically needed aid, teams of first responders, disaster experts, and heavy equipment to power… pic.twitter.com/qZcUymNatd

— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) June 28, 2026

The Miami-based news outlet UHN Plus pointed out that the quake-ravaged region of La Guaira was home to socialist housing projects built by the Maduro regime using "low-quality materials," which may be one of the reasons so many structures collapsed.

🇻🇪‼️| A comienzos del 2011, Hugo Chávez y Nicolás Maduro lanzaron el proyecto “La Gran Misión Vivienda”. Allí se construyeron millones de casas para los venezolanos en situación de pobreza. La mayoría estaba en La Guaira y contaban con materiales de baja calidad. El proyecto… pic.twitter.com/iJGL7WCr4K

— UHN Plus (@UHN_Plus) June 27, 2026

Earlier this year, U.S. Delta Force operators removed socialist leader Nicolás Maduro from power to reset Venezuela's politics and install a U.S.-friendly regime.

No U.S. occupation was needed for the regime change operation, but now, under the guise of a humanitarian effort, there are U.S. boots on the ground. This raises questions about how long the new U.S. presence will remain in Venezuela.

President Trump has joked about turning Venezuela into America's 51st state.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 08:48

The Last Word On Kernen Vs. Grantham

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Last week, CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin and Joe Kernen interviewed legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham, and for about six minutes the conversation turned into one of the better moments I’ve seen on financial television in a long time.

Grantham, the 86-year-old co-founder of GMO, whose case for the market being overvalued I highlighted last week, built one of the world’s most respected institutional asset management firms. Over the course of his career, he became famous for identifying some of the largest financial bubbles in modern history, including the Japanese asset bubble of the late 1980s, the dot com boom, and the housing bubble that culminated in the 2008 financial crisis.

During the interview, Grantham reiterated his long-held skepticism of Bitcoin, calling it “a useless speculative” asset that will eventually “dwindle away... not with a bang, but a whimper.”

Kernen wasn’t having it. He fired back that anyone who had listened to Grantham over the last decade had missed one of the greatest-performing assets in history, later broadening the criticism to Grantham’s generally bearish market outlook over the last fifteen years. The clip immediately spread across social media, where half the internet accused Kernen of bullying one of Wall Street’s most respected investors, while the other half applauded him for holding a famous skeptic accountable.

After watching it a couple of times, I think both sides were right.

Let’s start with Kernen. If you come on CNBC and tell viewers Bitcoin is eventually going to zero, it’s sadly probably only one of the times on the network you should expect to get challenged. It’s the opposite of the consensus view on a network that does nothing but offer pie-in-the-sky forecasts for crypto and usher in crypto-friendly guests all day. For specific examples, see this compilation of Tom Lee price targets.

I wish more financial interviews included challenging the guest. I wrote about this last week at length. The only problem is the real challenges…the dickish sounding ones like Kernen’s, only seem to be lobbed at skeptics or bears. As I’ve said, financial media desperately needs accountability. If you’ve been bullish for fifteen years, defend it. If you’ve been bearish for fifteen years, defend it. If you’re a CEO who has repeatedly missed guidance or has been accused of serious misdeeds, defend it.

If you’re a Wall Street strategist who has spent years chasing momentum and changing price targets after the fact, defend it. Nobody should get a free pass.

Kernen’s argument on Bitcoin was straightforward. I mean, I think arguing “past performance is indicative of future results” is a bit of a fool’s errand, but at least Kernen made his points clear: namely, you’ve been wrong so far.

Regardless of whether you think Bitcoin has intrinsic value, it has created extraordinary wealth for many.

It has gone from essentially nothing to becoming an institutional asset held through ETFs, corporate treasuries, family offices and investment funds. Millions of people who ignored critics like Grantham became substantially wealthier for doing so. That’s a perfectly fair point.

Kernen then expanded the discussion beyond Bitcoin and questioned Grantham’s broader market record, arguing that investors who had followed his cautious stance since roughly 2010 would have dramatically underperformed one of the strongest bull markets in history. Kernen even asked whether Grantham had ever become bullish during that period, suggesting he’d spent most of the last decade warning about valuations while the S&P 500 kept marching higher.

Again, that’s a legitimate question. Grantham’s response is where I think the discussion became much more interesting. He pushed back on the idea that he’d simply been a permanent bear, noting that he’d written extensively about the possibility of a speculative “melt-up” late in the cycle. In other words, he wasn’t arguing markets couldn’t continue rising. He was arguing they were becoming increasingly overvalued even as they did. Those are two different statements.

Saying an asset is overpriced isn’t the same thing as saying it has to collapse tomorrow. That’s a distinction people constantly miss. I’ve dealt with the same thing myself. And it’s why I’m constantly trying to determine whether being overvalued in the age of quantitative easing means anything anymore.

I’ve been called a “permabear,” even though anyone who actually reads this blog knows I’m constantly looking for opportunities. My annual list of stocks to watch is almost all long-only. I write tons of long-only ideas here. In fact, my 26 Stocks to Watch for 2026, measured on an average, equal-weighted basis, is now estimated to be up +26.1% year-to-date, beating the S&P 500 by roughly +18.7% so far in 2026. Last year, my 25 Stocks To Watch For 2025 torched the S&P by more than +50%.

What’s permanently bearish about getting long winners that outperform the index? Just because I’m not guzzling down the batshit insane valuations, backwards logic and nefarious loopholes that have been fueling most of this market rise higher? Because I point out risks in crypto and equities that nobody else appears to be talking about?

In March of 2020, when the entire world was panicking about the Covid crash that I had warned about months prior, I appeared on the SNN Network to talk about why I liked financial stocks and airlines. What’s permanently bearish about being a sole voice saying Covid was not a systemic financial problem and looking at Goldman Sachs at $150 when its now at $1,000?

The point applies to Grantham: Being skeptical of broad market valuations doesn’t mean you’re incapable of making money. As best I can tell, over the last two decades, Grantham’s investing approach has modestly underperformed simply buying and holding the S&P 500, but it hasn’t been the catastrophic miss that many of his critics suggest.

His firm’s flagship allocation strategy has delivered respectable long-term returns while deliberately sacrificing some upside during one of the strongest U.S. equity bull markets in history. Grantham would also argue that judging his record solely by annualized returns misses the point. Part of his philosophy appears to be centered on avoiding permanent capital impairment and the psychological toll of major drawdowns.

Investors who lived through the dot-com crash or the financial crisis know that recovering from a 50% loss isn’t just a math problem, it’s years of waiting simply to get back to even. Grantham’s case has never been that he’ll win every bull market, but that preserving capital during the inevitable busts leaves investors in a stronger position when the cycle eventually turns.

But I see Kernen’s point, too. As I’ve written countless times, our responsibility isn’t to sit around predicting the precise date the system falls apart. Our responsibility is to understand the system we’re investing in.

That brings me back to what I think was the most important exchange of the interview. Grantham argued that Bitcoin “hasn’t outlived a general bull market.”

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I actually agree with him. Bitcoin has experienced violent corrections, but it has never lived through the kind of prolonged, grinding secular bear market that hasn’t been instantly rescued by the Fed. Most of its existence has coincided with an era defined by quantitative easing, extraordinary liquidity, massive fiscal deficits and repeated central bank intervention.

That’s not a criticism of Bitcoin. It’s simply an observation. We don’t know how it behaves if we enter a multi-year environment where liquidity isn’t constantly expanding and policymakers can’t, or won’t, ride to the rescue. Whether or not this will ever happen again is the multi-trillion dollar question of our era: whether traditional measures of valuation even matter anymore in a world dominated by quantitative easing, passive investing, options-driven flows and central bank intervention.

That’s the real debate. Grantham believes valuations still matter.

They may not matter next quarter or next year, but eventually they matter.

Kernen is essentially asking whether investors have spent fifteen years waiting for history to repeat while the rules of the game have fundamentally changed.

Neither question has been answered and frankly, nobody knows.

That’s why I think people are making too much out of this interview. It wasn’t a scandal. It was a genuine disagreement about one of the biggest questions in investing today: do historical valuation frameworks still work in a world reshaped by central banks and perpetual liquidity, or have markets permanently evolved into something different?

That’s a conversation worth having. The only criticism I’d make of Kernen is that he didn’t always need to make it so dickish and personal sounding. Comparing Grantham to a broken clock and repeatedly talking over him didn’t strengthen the argument. It distracted from it. A CNBC host being a dick to a market skeptic he didn’t agree with is, after all, one of the key reasons I started this blog.

But in general, financial television needs more debates like this, not fewer.

It just needs more of them directed at everyone, not just the bears and skeptics.

Challenge the Bitcoin bulls, too. Challenge the CEOs overseeing controversy. Challenge the strategists. Challenge the analysts who’ve been wrong for years. If accountability is the standard, apply it equally: No Accountability

Let’s see that same energy the next time a CEO comes on after missing guidance for the fourth straight quarter. Or the next strategist who has spent five years telling investors to buy every dip regardless of valuation. Or the next analyst who upgrades a stock after it’s already doubled and quietly disappears when it falls 70%.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 08:40

"Entering The Mega Investment Era": JPM Breaks Down South Korea's Plan To Double Memory-Chip Production

Any hope that the memory-chip shortage would ease this year was upended Monday morning, as South Korea's two memory giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, prepare a massive capacity expansion that will unfold over the next five years rather than provide near-term relief. That means the supply squeeze rippling through consumer electronics, from Apple MacBooks to Microsoft Xbox consoles, is likely to keep driving prices higher  for the foreseeable future.

The Korea Economic Daily reports that South Korea plans to steer at least 1,350 trillion won, or about $880 billion, of private investments into expanding semiconductor manufacturing and AI data centers.

Samsung and SK Hynix plan to build four chipmaking plants in the country's southwest at a combined cost of 800 trillion won, while companies including Naver will invest another 550 trillion won to develop 8.4 gigawatts of AI data-center capacity by 2029.

"We're entering an era where the page turns in the blink of an eye," President Lee Jae Myung said, adding the country must accelerate faster than rivals, calling speed "the only way to survive" in the AI era.

South Korea's industry ministry wrote in a statement that the move aims to double the country's memory chip production capacity within five years and to secure its lead in chip production amid competition from China and Taiwan.

The memory crunch worsened last week when Apple and Xbox were forced to raise prices on MacBooks and gaming consoles. Then, a weekend story reported that Apple plans to tap China for memory, given the shortage that will persist through this year and next as AI demand soaks up memory supply.

Samsung shares fell nearly 5% Monday, while SK Hynix declined 1.7%.

JPMorgan analyst Jay Kwon provided clients with a first take on news from South Korea, calling the country's AI investment push the start of the "Mega Investment Era" and a move to strengthen its lead in memory chips, data centers, and physical AI.

The plan centers on three growth pillars: semiconductors, AI robotics and physical AI, and AI data centers, Kwon noted.

Here's more color:

Entering the Mega Investment Era. The Korean government (Presidential office and multiple cabinet members) and major AI ecosystem C-level executives (incl. Samsung/SK group chairmen) attended a national briefing today and shared the long-term AI mega project vision.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources ("MOTIR") announced the "Three Mega Project Plans" establishing 1) semiconductors; 2) AI robotics and physical AI; and 3) AI datacenters as the three major growth pillars (link). The genesis of the investment stems from retaining the current AI leadership (especially in AI semiconductors) and leapfrogging as an AI export country through nurturing and developing various AI-derivative businesses including robotics and AI datacenters. Within the semiconductor business, MOTIR highlighted 3S (Speed + Stronghold + Spearhead) + 1F (Full Support) as growth strategies: 1) Speed: MOTIR expects memory capacity to double in the next five years and pull-forward the advanced Yongyin fab ramp timeline by 7-12 years (From 2045-2047 to 2033-2040); 2) Stronghold: W800T investment in the Southeast region (four fabs in total) and W81T HBM backend fab investment in the Chungcheong region; 3) Spearhead: W30T investment over the next 15 years in R&D and labor to support the pathway from R&D to full production; and lastly 4) Full Support from the government backed by MOTIR. Other investments include fostering Robotics as the next growth engine and W550T investment in AI DC split between two phases (1st phase: 8.4GW and 2nd phase: W10GW investment by 2035).

Samsung Group: W2,655T investment of which W2,100T in semiconductors. Samsung Group announced a W2,655T investment in Korea (link) and SEC announced a W2,450T investment throughout 2026-2040 (W2,100T investment in semiconductors) (link). Combining the two investment announcements, SEC is expected to invest: 1) W1,650T in Yong-in fab cluster and existing semiconductor fabs; 2) W400T in Gwangju potentially as a new manfuacturing hub; 3) W56T in HBM backend packaging line in Cheonan/Onyang; 4) W67T in next-gen display and micro display in Asan; and 5)

SK Group: W2,100T investment (W1,100T in memory and W1,000T in AI infrastructure). SK Group explained the role of the datacenter is transistioning from storage to token generation and emphasized AI factory as the next growth engine of the group (link). The SK Group announced to invest W1,000T in AI infrastructure equating to 15GW by 2035 split between two phases (1st phase of 5GW ramp split between a mix of 0.5GW/1GW projects and an additional 10GW ramp by 2035). SK Group also announced that it will invest W1,100T in memory split between W600T in Yongin (pulling forward the ramp time from 2045 to 2033), W100T in NAND in Cheongju, and W400T for the next semiconductor cluster, potentially in the Southeast region.

JPM view: W4,755T (or US$3.1T) includes more than a dozen of~400k WSPM fab investments on a scale which is 2x that of the current installed DRAM WSPM capacity, implying the pace of building 1mn additional DRAM capacity (from 1H16- 1H26) will be multiple times faster than in the past after the tipping point in late2020s. Within the US$3.1T long-term investment plan, we estimate 60-70% to be allocated to front-end wafer equipment spending, 20-30% for infrastructure and cleanroom construction, and the rest for back-end packaging facilities. We expect to hear more details on specific timelines for investment (fab and investment plan in multiple stages and timeline) in the upcoming result season and follow-up corporate events

Investment Details:

The planned spending underscores South Korea's preparation for physical AI, but also shows that any immediate relief for memory chips won't happen anytime soon.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 08:20

Bursting Of AI Bubble, Collapse Of Circular Deals Are Among Top Risks To Global Financial System, BIS Warns

An artificial-intelligence bust (and thus bubble), inflation and fiscal stress are the three the most alarming threats to global prosperity at present, the Bank for International Settlements warned. In its annual report published on Sunday, the Basel-based institution - better known as the central banks' central bank - cited those on a list of “pressure points” that currently “demand attention,” with underlying financial vulnerabilities lurking that could amplify any shock.

“The global economy remains caught in the crosscurrents of progress and peril,” Basel officials said in the report. “Resilience is being increasingly tested and strained.”

The assessment highlighted AI-led risks prominently in a report that arrived on the eve of the ECB’s three-day annual symposium in Sintra, where a host of global policymakers will also scrutinize such stability dangers closely.

“Disappointment in returns could trigger a sudden pullback in financing and turn the capex boom into a protracted investment bust, with potential knock-on effects on financial conditions,” the BIS said, before observing that “a major equity-market correction could have larger macroeconomic consequences today than in the past.” 

Besides AI, the Basel officials went on to note that other assets could face similar dangers, and highlighted credit in particular.

“Repricing of risk this time, whether triggered by higher interest rates or an AI bust, has the potential to be similarly disruptive” in that segment to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the BIS said. 

On AI specifically, officials highlighted vulnerabilities linked to funding, including complex arrangements such so-called “circular financing” deals that can mix equity and debt with supplier-client contracts (as discussed here "The $1.8 Trillion Off-Balance Sheet Time Bomb At The Heart Of The AI Supercycle"). 

For instance, chipmakers and hyperscalers take stakes in AI labs or neocloud providers, who in turn commit to multi-year purchases of chips or computing power, the BIS said. Data center construction is more frequently outsourced to third parties that lease facilities back to hyperscalers on long-term contracts with embedded exit clauses.

Source: Morgan Stanley

“The terms of such deals are typically poorly disclosed, with risks of the same asset being pledged multiple times,” officials wrote.

The BIS’s separate warning of a possible return of inflation jars with some initial optimism that the current energy shock caused by the Middle East crisis might recede. Signs of progress over a peace deal this week brought the oil price down to levels below where they were when the Iran war broke out in late February.

BIS officials, in tune with peers at institutions such as the ECB, also worry that the disruption to energy supplies may not be over, that infrastructure will take time to rebuild, and that existing impacts could linger. 

That followed US data last week showing prices rising at the fastest pace in more than three years, and precedes numbers in coming days that may show euro-zone inflation still far above officials’ 2% target.

The last cost-of-living shock in 2022 “is still in the memory of economic agents,” BIS chief Pablo Hernandez de Cos told reporters, intending no puns with the whole "memory" thing, and noting that this can mean a “higher probability of second-round effects.”

The BIS also highlighted what has become a familiar warning about how fiscal dangers posed by high sovereign debts still loom large, with added complications given the other risks. Echoing counterparts such as the Paris-based OECD, it pointed to how hedge funds have become much more prominent as buyers of government bonds, often using funding that can quickly unwind when conditions deteriorate as part of their massively levered basis trades.

“These hedge funds employ highly leveraged strategies that rely on short-term financing on favorable terms, creating risks of fire sales and de-leveraging feedback loops,” the BIS said. “Financial stresses can now propagate quickly and broadly through funding markets, across borders and between banks and non-banks.”

This year has already seen moments of bond-market tension, with broad selloffs on the UK gilt market summoning memories of the country’s 2022 crisis, and similar developments in Japan causing global ripples that extended to US Treasuries. 

“Market reactions can emerge in any moment, depending on sometimes political events or economic events,” de Cos said. “It will be important to reduce these vulnerabilities before these market reactions might take place.”

In its capacity advising global central banks, the BIS said that a strict focus on monetary discipline remains essential, ensuring that inflation expectations don’t become unhinged on the back of the recent energy price spikes and other supply shocks, Bloomberg reported, yet as we noted earlier, the US has been above the Fed's 2% inflation target for about 5 years now, making a mockery of the central bank's core pillar. Officials shouldn’t shirk from raising interest rates if needed, even if that harms growth in the short term, BIS said, knowing fully well nobody would do anything that harms growth in the short term.

“Policies reinforce each other,” the officials wrote. “Disciplined fiscal policy underpins monetary credibility and financial stability. Robust regulation strengthens market resilience, preserves fiscal space and limits the need for frequent central bank interventions. Credible monetary policy anchors inflation expectations.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 07:35

Comcast Shares Jump Most Since 2008 On Plans To Separate Units

Comcast shares jumped the most in nearly two decades on news that it plans to split NBCUniversal and Sky into a separate publicly traded company through a tax-free spin-off.

The transaction, expected to close in about one year, would leave Comcast shareholders owning stakes in both.

Comcast would remain centered around broadband, wireless, business services, and entertainment platforms, backed by a network that reaches more than 65 million homes and businesses.

NBCUniversal, which will also include Sky, will house Universal’s film and TV studios, NBC, Telemundo, Peacock, Bravo, sports, news, and the company’s theme parks business.

Comcast said the standalone media company will have the scale, content library, and intellectual property needed to compete with leading streaming platforms.

Mike Cavanagh will become CEO of NBCUniversal, and former Comcast CFO Michael Angelakis will return as CEO of Comcast.

Comcast expects to retain up to a 19.9% stake in NBCUniversal for up to one year after the spin-off and plans to monetize that position over time in a tax-efficient manner. The company said both businesses are expected to have strong investment-grade balance sheets.

Shares of Comcast in pre-market trading soared 23% on the news, the largest intraday gain since the 24.5% gain on October 28, 2008. On the year, shares are down 17%, as of Friday's close.

Goldman Sachs and PJT Partners are advising Comcast on the tax-free spin-off, with Davis Polk serving as legal counsel.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 07:20

Amazon Prime Day Sales Rise 9% Year Over Year, Topping $26 Billion

Americans spent a record $26.4 billion during Amazon's four-day Prime Day sales event, a 9.3% increase from a year earlier, per Adobe Analytics and according to Reuters. 

The gains were fueled by heavy promotions across categories including electronics, appliances, clothing, toys, personal care products, and household necessities, as consumers looked to maximize savings amid ongoing cost pressures.

Industry analysts said several factors contributed to the stronger spending, including larger tax refunds and early back-to-school purchases, which gave many households extra flexibility to buy items they had been postponing.

Reuters writes that rather than spending freely, however, shoppers appeared to be concentrating purchases around major discount events to get the best value.

The data also suggests consumers remain selective. While overall sales climbed, retailers relied on promotions that were similar in size to last year's to generate demand, raising questions about whether deep discounts will remain necessary through the holiday shopping season.

Separately, Numerator reported the average Prime Day order fell to $47.66 from $53.34 last year, indicating many shoppers are still keeping a close eye on their budgets despite higher overall spending.

If there's one takeaway from this year's Prime Day, it's that the American consumer isn't necessarily getting stronger—they're getting more tactical. People aren't throwing money around because they feel flush; they're waiting for the biggest sale of the year to buy things they need anyway.

When households have to time purchases around deep discounts, larger tax refunds, and promotional events just to make the math work, it's another reminder that years of inflation have quietly eroded purchasing power, even if headline retail spending continues to look healthy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 06:55

Record 1 In 16 People Worldwide Now Use Drugs, UN Report Says

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

One out of every 16 people in the world uses drugs, the highest level at any point in human history, the United Nations said in a June 26 post on X.

“While cannabis remains the most widely used drug, the global cocaine market has reached record levels,” the U.N. stated in the post. In the 10 years between 2014 and 2024, global production of cocaine has surged by more than 370 percent.

The numbers come from the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime’s (UNODC) World Drug Report 2026, released on June 26.

In total, 331 million people worldwide used drugs in 2024, up by 34 percent over the previous 10 years. Cannabis was the most used narcotic with 256 million users, followed by opioids with 63 million, amphetamines with 32 million, cocaine with 25 million, and ecstasy with 21 million users.

There were about 63 million people with drug use disorders, with one in 12 undergoing treatment.

Among women with drug use disorders, one in 23 was receiving treatment. This figure was higher among men at one in nine. 

Out of the 14 million who used drugs via injections, almost 7 million had hepatitis C, 1.7 million were living with HIV, and 1.5 million had both.

The report observed that one of the “biggest reckonings with drug use in recent years occurred in Canada and the United States, which were rocked by an opioid crisis in the first two decades of this century that caused nearly a million deaths.”

However, the peak of the crisis “appears to have passed,” with 2024 figures showing a decline in opioid deaths involving fentanyl.

In a January 2026 report, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that drug overdose death rates involving synthetic opioids other than methadone fell by 35.6 percent between 2023 and 2024.

While opioid deaths have declined, the vast majority of such deaths took place in the United States and Canada, the UNODC report said, adding that fentanyl opioids continued to account for the largest share of such deaths.

The agency also highlighted the impact of nitazenes—synthetic opioids that are more potent than fentanyl—in the United States. In 2024, 409 deaths were attributed to nitazenes in 43 U.S. jurisdictions.

In a June 26 statement, UNODC said that drug manufacturers are inventing new synthetic drugs in a bid to avoid detection and bypass regulations. In 2024, five times more drug types were found in drug seizures than prior to 2000.

Monica Juma, executive director of UNODC, said there has been an “unprecedented spike” in new drug types entering the market, some of which are more potent or dangerous than existing ones.

“We are already suffering the impact: millions of premature deaths and healthy years of life needlessly lost; drug trafficking networks that are distorting economies; the destruction of lives, communities, and livelihoods; and the compounding of insecurity and violence,” Juma said.

“The imperative to focus on stopping organized crime groups has never been greater. We must surge deterrence efforts, increase intelligence-sharing, and coordinate joint operations, while investing more in prevention and treatment.”

Tackling US Drug Addiction

Last month, the Trump administration’s drug czar, Sara Carter, released the 2026 National Drug Control Strategy, detailing the roadmap that the United States plans to use to tackle the drug crisis.

While the strategy involves several measures, such as securing global supply chains from transnational criminals behind the influx of drugs into the United States, one of the key focus areas is the treatment provided to counter addiction.

Carter said authorities will “work tirelessly” to eliminate the demand for drugs in the United States.

“We will build a culture of resilience where living drug-free is the norm. We will empower educators, faith leaders, and families to protect our children from this chemical assault,” she said.

“And we will ensure that compassionate, effective treatment and recovery support are available to every American who is courageously fighting to reclaim their life from addiction.”

According to the strategy, the administration will seek to ensure that treatments for drug addiction are “more accessible than continued drug use.”

In a May 7 statement, Libby Jones of the Global Health Advocacy Incubator raised concerns about the Trump administration’s fiscal year 2027 budget request that cut funding for some addiction programs.

The request cuts $261 million from the Substance Abuse Prevention program and $576 million from the Mental and Behavioral Health subtotal.

“A strategy that says treatment should be easier to obtain than illicit drugs must have the infrastructure to make that real,” Jones said.

Meanwhile, in a June 19 statement, the Department of Homeland Security said that the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) seized 32 percent more cocaine, methamphetamine, fentanyl, heroin, and marijuana nationwide in May compared with two years back.

“CBP has seized 56 percent more drugs this fiscal year through May than it seized during the same period of FY 2024,” the department said. FY refers to fiscal year.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 06:30

EU Watchdog EBA Details Big Crypto Fines As Landmark Laws Bite

Authored by Robert Lakin via CoinTelegraph.com,

The European Banking Authority on Friday unveiled a sweeping framework to penalize cryptocurrency issuers that violate the European Union’s digital-asset laws, signaling a tougher enforcement stance as the trade bloc finalizes its historic regulatory architecture.

The consultation paper published June 26 establishes a standardized playbook for hitting non-compliant issuers of what the EBA considers “significant” tokens with potentially multimillion-euro penalties. Under the proposal, the Paris-based watchdog will deploy a strict two-step process to determine fines, assessing the baseline severity of an infraction before factoring in aggravating or mitigating behavior.

The move represents the sharpening of teeth for the EU’s landmark Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation. Introduced to bring order to a historically freewheeling sector, MiCA is the world's first comprehensive regulatory regime for digital assets, forcing token issuers and crypto service providers to operate with bank-like compliance, consumer protections and capital reserves if they want access to the single European market.

The stakes for non-compliance are explicitly designed to be punitive. According to the EBA's consultation paper, final penalties could reach statutory ceilings of 12.5% of annual turnover for issuers of significant asset-referenced tokens and 10% for significant e-money tokens, or two times the profits generated by the violation, caps meant to deter even the largest global digital-asset operators.

Cover screenshot of European Banking Authority's 14-page consultation paper.
Source: EBA

The roll-out of the penalty framework comes at a critical juncture for Europe's digital asset industry, landing just days ahead of a crucial July 1 deadline. By the start of next month, cryptocurrency firms must have secured formal licenses from national regulators to legally offer their services or market stablecoins within the 27-nation bloc, ending a transitional grace period that allowed many operators to function under looser local rules.

Firms that fail to secure their regulatory passports by July 1 face the prospect of being forced to halt operations entirely or risk triggering the exact infractions, such as unauthorized public disclosures or organizational failures, that the EBA’s new framework is built to penalize.

Binance pushes “pause” on EU operations after license fail

The world’s biggest exchange operator, Binance, last week notified European Union users that access to key services will be restricted after the exchange failed to secure MiCA authorization from a member state before the July 1 deadline after it withdrew its MiCA license application in Greece.

Those restrictions include halting the onboarding of new EU users and limiting certain services for EU-based accounts effective July 1, according to exchange notices shared by users on social media.

Notice sent by Binance to customers in Poland. Source: IT_Tech_PL

The notices said users will still be able to withdraw their assets after that date, stating that “all digital assets are still available for withdrawal,” in line with applicable regulatory requirements.

Binance recorded $1.96 billion in daily net outflows on Wednesday, following its withdrawal announcement, according to DefiLlama data viewed by Cointelegraph on Sunday. The exchange then saw another $2.52 billion and $1.46 billion in net outflows over the following two days.

EU move shows sharp contrast with US enforcement approach

The timing underscores the European Union's broader strategy to position itself as the dominant global standard-setter for digital finance, contrasting sharply with the regulation-by-enforcement approach seen in the United States. By laying out clear financial penalties right as the licensing mandate takes effect, authorities in Brussels are telling the market that the era of leniency is officially over.

The industry now has a three-month consultation window ending September 28 to lobby for changes to the EBA's penalty methodology. However, with the July 1 licensing cliff edge just days away, executives will have to navigate an unforgiving compliance environment long before the final fining guidelines are formalized under law.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 05:00

GM Replaces 1,000 Factory Zero Workers With 50 Robots

General Motors is once again under the microscope after expanding automation at its Detroit-based Factory Zero plant, installing about 50 collaborative robots not long after cutting more than 1,000 positions, according to Yahoo Finance.

The decision reflects a broader shift across the auto industry as manufacturers lean more heavily on robotics and AI to improve efficiency while labor groups warn about the impact on employment.

Factory Zero, where GM builds the GMC Hummer EV and Chevrolet Silverado EV, was originally marketed as the centerpiece of the company's electric vehicle ambitions. Instead, inconsistent EV demand has forced production adjustments, temporary downtime, and workforce reductions, even as GM continues pouring money into advanced manufacturing technology.

The newly installed Fanuc cobots assist employees with attaching body panels during assembly. GM says the machines are intended to reduce repetitive, physically taxing work and improve safety—not eliminate workers. Even so, their arrival shortly after significant layoffs has sparked concern on the factory floor.

The Yahoo Finance article notes that the United Auto Workers' Local 22 has challenged the rollout, filing grievances over the new equipment and arguing that employees have good reason to question what expanded automation means for future staffing levels. GM maintains that robotics complement, rather than replace, human workers by allowing employees to focus on more skilled tasks.

The investment fits into GM's long-term manufacturing strategy. The company has spent the last several years highlighting artificial intelligence and automation as key parts of its future, including a partnership with NVIDIA to develop AI-powered factory systems. CEO Mary Barra has repeatedly said advanced technology is critical to improving productivity and keeping GM competitive.

The trend extends well beyond GM. Companies including Toyota and BMW are accelerating their own investments in robotic manufacturing as rising labor costs and competitive pressures push the industry toward greater automation. Following the UAW's 2023 contract, GM estimated the agreement would add roughly $500 to the cost of every vehicle it builds.

With automation becoming more sophisticated each year, the debate over where robots end and human workers begin is only likely to intensify. As the next UAW negotiations approach in 2028, the role of AI and robotics on factory floors is shaping up to be one of the industry's biggest labor issues.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 04:15

Is There Any Point In Getting To Know Andy Burnham?

Authored by Joanna Gray via DailySceptic.org,

The best way to approach Andy Burnham, our new Prime Minister-in-waiting, is like the latest girlfriend of a desirable but emotionally damaged philanderer.

We should be polite but there’s no real point in spending too much time getting to know her, because she’ll be replaced with a new model in a matter of months.

Let’s call this philandering gentleman Mr Great Britain. He’s the dashingly handsome lothario with daddy issues (in this case loss of Empire). We all know the type: the rakish uncle who’s still smoking at Christenings. He’s a sort of Hugh Grant chap with emotional baggage who can’t resist flirting with everyone, from the great aunt to the minx who’s just finished her A-Levels and all the waitresses. In spite of his obvious flaws (the NHS, insane energy and welfare policies), Mr Great Britain is still a deeply desirable thoroughbred with excellent breeding, ancestry, land and property. The problem is, he just keeps hooking up with all the wrong girls.

Mr Great Britain’s ancestors have made some outstandingly successful marriages that have expanded and solidified the family fortunes (Pitt, Disraeli, Liverpool, Salisbury, Baldwin, Thatcher). Sadly our current Mr Great Britain, when a young man, got into bed with a certain Anthony Blair who, as Mr Great Britain sobs into his drink with his next hook up: completely broke his heart. “I thought she was the one,” Mr Great Britain cries, “She had everything a young man could want: an ability to smile, a catchy slogan. But it turns out she was an absolute cow. She made me go to war and changed all the funny institutions in the old manor.”

Add this early heart break to his loss of Empire daddy issues, and poor old Mr Great Britain doesn’t know whom to settle down with. He flails around from one type of woman to another thinking they will solve his problems. In a pique of revenge, he seduced Anthony Blair’s severe best friend Gordon. Friends hoped Gordon would steady Mr GB, but instead she just shouted at everyone and sold the family gold. Thankfully this relationship didn’t last long and people were delighted when Mr Great Britain brought home the elegant Dave Cameron. She was just the right sort, a handsome filly with breeding and a pretty face. Alas like many willowy Sloanes, Dave turned out to be a sopping wet drip.

Time was ticking on and Mr Great Britain turned his wandering eye to a rather forgettable older woman who had an improbable interest in shoes. This petered out when Mr Great Britain remembered his deep seated predilection for fun times. He dumped Theresa and leaped into the willing arms of good time girl Boris Johnson. A knockout blonde who’d been round the block with plenty of other chaps, Boris was surely the girl to revive Mr Great Britain’s vim and vigour. Alas there was nothing more to her than her hair. Boris failed in all fundamental aspects of family care: she locked up the children, spaffed the family money and invited millions of people over to the family estate. She had to go.

Things then took a turn for the worse for poor old Mr Great Britain. He had the audacity to bring another ridiculous blonde to his grandmother’s funeral. She had a strange way of talking and everyone was convinced Liz was quite mad.

He then went through his exotic phase and a dated a small polite woman of Indian extraction who did lovely things with candles at Diwali but wasn’t at all suited to the English rain.

Most recently Mr Great Britain has dumped his latest squeeze, a rather terrifying lawyer who bored everyone to tears.

Rumour has it that Mr Great Britain is in the early stages of a relationship with a Northern Woman called Andy.

She has a Northern accent so might be good with the staff but is unlikely to stick.

Friends of Mr Great Britain know that time is running out.

He’s getting a bit too old and craggy and will soon go entirely to seed unless a good woman grips him. Again, we all know the type: the gorgeous stud who finally settles down at the age of 52 with a charming and competent wife. She solves his daddy issues and gives him a sense of belonging and purpose. They create a wonderful family home and have a quiverful of children. We also know the other type: the gorgeous stud who continues dating a series of inappropriate women well into his dotage. Whenever there’s a social event, we old friends think: who will the old rogue bring this time? Shall we bother to get to know her? Oh dear, we mutter, he’s looking shabbier and shabbier; it’s too late, no-one will want him now, he’s entirely broke, lost his estate as well as his looks.

Which path will our Mr Great Britain take? For now, I wouldn’t waste too much time in getting to know the new northern lass. She’ll be gone in a matter of months. Will the next honey be another embarrassing disaster or the one who sets Mr GB on the right path to fulfil his neglected potential? If I were a matchmaker, my wife of choice for Mr Great Britain would be that lovely Christian woman Danny whose mother is a tremendous cook.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 03:30

Did The World Cup Just Start A War In Europe Over Air Conditioning?

The World Cup has triggered one of the most surprising global cultural awakenings in decades and almost no one saw it coming.  The establishment media had been running negative propaganda for months, claiming that the event was going to be a disaster because it was being held in the US.  The machine had already decided that the World Cup in 2026 was going to be sold as a disaster from start to finish. 

Rumors were spinning that because Americans don't care about "soccer" that the tournament would be mismanaged, that America was "racist", the players would be treated poorly, and that the US is such a dangerous place it would deter travelers from going overseas to attend the games.

The anti-American sentiment being generating by western journalists is staggering.  However, all it took was a few weeks and around 1.2 million foreign visitors per city coming to see the World Cup at the same time.  Suddenly, Europeans have realized they've been lied to about everything.

The US hosted event is now being called one of the most successful in history.  The propaganda spell has been broken.  Europeans are going on social media to apologize for the hate their countrymen have been dumping on the US over the years.  And, most importantly, they've discovered air conditioning.

Strangely, it's not American gun rights that are sparking mass debate.  Rather, it's the air conditioning issue that's causing the most friction with political leaders back in Europe, and the elites are not happy. 

Americans have trouble understanding the angst.  Only 19% of all Europeans have air conditioning in their homes, compared to 90% or people in the US.  In Britain, 14% of people have cold indoor air.  In France it's 25% and in Germany it's 19%.  Keep in mind, these are high rates compared to only 10 years ago.  Europe's love affair with air conditioning is a very recent phenomenon; they've been burning up in silence for decades.  

But now, travelers visiting America are wondering why a technology created in 1902 is not more common in their home nations?  They're starting to ask questions, and they're finding out that their own governments simply don't want them to have it.  In other words, air conditioning is a luxury for politicians and the wealthy, not for the peasants.  How else can the west save the world from "climate change"?

France has banned drinking alcohol in public to counter dehydration. Residents are stampeding stores and fighting each other for fans and the few air conditioning units they can find.  EU leaders are facing increasing demands for a reexamination of "Net Zero" policies. 

WATCH: Fights are breaking out inside stores across France as shoppers scramble to buy fans and air conditioners amid the country’s extreme heat wave. pic.twitter.com/7HaZ3oro83

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 25, 2026

The French Environment Minister says she is "horrified" by the rising calls for air conditioning, suggesting that the peons need to worry less about the heat and more about global warming, if that makes sense.  The debate is being presented as a matter of "selfishness" on the part of common citizens who want to stay cool.

🇫🇷‼️🚨 “WE AGREE THAT PEOPLE MUST NOT SUFFOCATE - BUT”

French Minister of Ecology Monique Barbut rants about air conditioning:

"I'm horrified by people who tell me we just need to put AC everywhere …

Do you think that by air-conditioning everything we're going to prevent… pic.twitter.com/rUyJYmv55X

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) June 28, 2026

“I’m going to tell you how I see it: I’m horrified by the people who tell me, ‘We just need to put air conditioning everywhere.’ Do you think that’s going to prevent forest fires? Do you think that’s going to stop a crop from disappearing? Do you think that’s going to prevent the death of the animals we’re seeing? Do you think that’s going to prevent anything? Nothing! Of course, people shouldn’t suffocate, but this isn’t adapting to climate change — it’s just an emergency measure.”

In response, governments across Europe are cracking down even more on air conditioning in order to send a message.  The EU commission is shutting down air conditioning in their Brussels HQ to set an example, but only for the bottom seven floors where all the lower wage employees work.  The top floors where the important people reside still get cool air.

In Britain, local councils are being instructed to force residents to remove air conditioning appliances from their homes or face fines.  They assert that the devices create too much "carbon emissions" and should only be used as a last resort.  Climate change fanatics are taking to British media to admonish people who dare to purchase one of the evil appliances.

Is it selfish to get air con in the heat wave?

Air conditioner units are selling out as Brits struggle with the soaring temperatures, but with around 4% of total global greenhouse gas emissions attributed to air con, should we be using them when we know they're heating the… pic.twitter.com/h2XIXaPL93

— Good Morning Britain (@GMB) June 25, 2026

Europe is in the midst of a rare summer heat wave.  Over 1300 deaths have so far been linked to the rising temps.  The temperatures are climbing to ranges common in the US but shocking by European standards.  One would think that this would be a perfect rationale for air conditioning, but globalist leaders in the region are testing the will of the public and seeing how much they can take away.

In reality, the Earth has been much hotter many times over the course of millions of years and it had nothing to do with carbon emissions or air conditioners. 

The concept of man-made climate change is a farce, which means all of this discomfort and potential death is pointless.  Americans discovered this a long time ago, and thanks to the World Cup and social media, Europeans are finally catching on. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 02:45

Turkey Bans Protests Across Many Provinces Ahead Of Major NATO Summit

Via Middle East Eye

Rights groups have condemned a protest ban imposed by Turkey ahead of a Nato summit, as well as the arrest of hundreds of people in a sweeping crackdown.

Last week, the Ankara Governorate announced a 13-day province-wide ban on all public assemblies from Sunday, citing "national security" and security measures around the conference.

Protesters hold a banner reading 'Turkey should leave Nato, Nato bases should be closed' during a demonstration in Ankara on 27 June 2026, ahead of the Nato summit. via AFP

A total of 225 people were also arrested, including alleged supporters of the leftist Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C) and the Islamic State group.

Other detainees included academic Emel Memis, gay rights activist and journalist Yildiz Tar, environmental NGO Tema Foundation representative Nevzat Ozer, independent labour union Umut-Sen spokesperson Burcu Arikan, and Progressive Lawyers Association lawyers Semra Demir and Kursat Bafra.

The state-run Anadolu news agency said that 178 suspects taken into custody were formally arrested, while 34 others were released under judicial supervision.

In a statement, Amnesty International condemned the ban and the arrests as an "unjustifiable attack on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and expression".

"All the excessively broad and disproportionate restrictions that prevent the exercise of the right to peaceful assembly must be lifted," said Esther Major, Amnesty International’s deputy director of research for Europe.

“In addition, Nato’s decision to deny accreditation to some journalists and media outlets from Turkey is a blow to media freedom. We call on Nato to reverse its stance and enable those who have been excluded to cover the event.”

Journalists denied access

The Nato summit is scheduled to take place on 7-8 July and is expected to be attended by leaders from all 32 member states. US President Donald Trump is among those expected to attend.

Turkey has been a member of Nato since 1952 and has the second-largest land army in the alliance.

Leftists and some Islamist groups have long criticized Turkey's membership, saying it has kept the country under US dominance and suppressed socialist and anti-imperialist movements in Turkey. US support for Israel's genocide in Gaza, as well as its attacks on Iran, has further provoked anger towards the summit in Turkey.

Dozens of journalists have been denied accreditation for the summit, including those from respected independent outlets such as Cumhuriyet, Sozcu, Anka, T24 and Medyascope.

On Friday, a range of media freedom bodies issued a joint statement condemning Nato's decision to deny the journalist's access.

🇹🇷Turkish people protest; "NATO must be disbanded" pic.twitter.com/8wm2SUggRi

— S p r i n t e r (@SprinterPress) June 28, 2026

"Given Nato’s own accreditation criteria, which lists editorial independence as a core eligibility requirement, rejection of outlets defined by that very quality is difficult to reconcile," the statement said.

"Should a governmental institution with a documented track record of restricting press access have played any role in this process, Nato risks allowing domestic media pressures to influence what should be an independent credentialing framework." Middle East Eye contacted Nato for comment, but had received no response at the time of publication.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 02:00

250 Years Ago: South Carolina Defeats The British Empire

Authored by Alan Wakim via The Epoch Times,

On the morning of June 28, 1776, Thomas Jefferson and the Committee of Five presented a draft of the Declaration of Independence to John Hancock, president of the Second Continental Congress. Although immortalized by John Trumbull’s famous painting, the historic moment unfolded with quiet parliamentary precision and strict protocol rather than fanfare.

The attack on the fort on Sulivan's Island the June 28, 1776, painted by Henry Gray. Drawing shows British ships firing on Fort Sullivan on Sullivan's Island. Library of Congress. Public Domain

That same morning, a drastically different scene was unfolding at the vital port city of Charles Town, South Carolina, now known as Charleston. A British invasion force of up to 3,000 soldiers and marines, supported by Royal Navy warships and transports, had been sent to suppress the growing independence movement and restore royal authority in the southern colonies. For weeks, the armada had been poised to strike the city and the surrounding fortifications.

On the northeast shore of Sullivan’s Island, Col. William Moultrie and Col. William “Old Danger” Thomson were inspecting earthen batteries and entrenchments when a sentry posted nearby caught movement out at sea—British warships unfurling their sails and weighing anchor—and shouted the alarm. Moultrie immediately galloped his horse back to Fort Sullivan as the enemy ships began their slow approach. Upon arrival, he ordered the drummer to beat the “long roll”—the urgent alarm signal commanding soldiers to their battle stations.

A portrait of Col. William Moultrie, by Charles Willson Peale. National Portrait Gallery. Public Domain

The rhythmic thud of the drum could be heard four miles away in Charles Town. Large crowds gathered along the waterfront and crowded the upper floors of the city’s buildings for a clear view of what many expected would be an intense artillery duel. Among those watching was South Carolina President John Rutledge, standing on the second floor of the Exchange Building. Observing the scene unfold with his spyglass, Rutledge could see naval gunners loading their heavy cannon.

On the very day Congress received Jefferson’s draft, more than 6,500 Continental soldiers, militiamen, enslaved laborers, and warriors from the Pee Dee, Waccamaw, Cheraw, and Catawba tribes prepared to defend South Carolina in what history remembers as the Battle of Sullivan’s Island.

South Carolina Mobilizes

In December 1775, Patriots intercepted British dispatches revealing plans to strike the southern colonies. Those fears were confirmed the following February when British Gen. Henry Clinton, while visiting New York City, indicated that his destination lay somewhere in the South before departing for North Carolina on Feb. 28.

A portrait of Gen. Henry Clinton, 1762-1765, by Andrea Soldi. Public Domain

Alarmed by these developments, Congress created the Southern Department on March 1 and appointed Gen. Charles Lee as its commander. Lee, who had been overseeing the defenses of New York under Gen. George Washington, departed the city on March 7 for his new command.

Rumors of an impending British attack swept through the Charles Town Harbor, prompting extensive defensive preparations. Within the city, workers erected barricades, breastworks, and heavy artillery batteries. Ringing the harbor, strategic outposts including Fort Johnson, Haddrell’s Point, and Mount Pleasant—along with scattered coastal redoubts—strengthened their lines with palmetto logs, sand, and powerful artillery.

Strategic outposts, forts, and locations of the British and Continental armies along the Charles Town Harbor. Markings by Alan Wakim on a 1776 map of Charles Town, S.C. Public Domain

The harbor’s defense was focused on Sullivan’s Island—at the time, a roughly four-mile-by-quarter-mile strip of land positioned by the harbor’s entrance. Shallow sandbars dotted the area inside and outside the harbor, forcing deep-draft ships to navigate past Sullivan’s Island to avoid running aground. Because of the island’s position as a strategic bottleneck, work began on the construction of Fort Sullivan with palmetto logs and sand. Moultrie was given command of the fort.

In North Carolina, Clinton met with the royal governor, Josiah Martin, when he learned that the Loyalist army had been defeated at the Battle of Moore’s Creek Bridge. Patriot militias now had exclusive control of the coastal regions. By the time Commodore Sir Peter Parker and Gen. Lord Charles Cornwallis rendezvoused with Clinton, North Carolina was unfeasible as a base of operations. Charles Town was now their best option.

The British Arrive

British vessels were spotted in late May taking soundings and gathering intelligence. On May 31, a Patriot horseman arrived at Rutledge’s headquarters to inform him that a massive fleet had been spotted on the horizon.

On June 1, the British armada arrived and dropped anchor outside the harbor. For the next several days, they searched for accessible crossing channels among the shallow sandbars.

On June 4, Lee arrived with his staff and assumed command. When he inspected Fort Sullivan, he called it a “slaughter pen” and predicted its destruction by naval artillery within half an hour. He ordered the fort to be abandoned and for the men to fall back to the mainland. Rutledge, however, instructed Moultrie to disobey those orders and to continue working on the fort.

On June 8, Clinton issued a formal proclamation to the city, demanding its immediate surrender. His timing proved unfortunate because Lee’s vanguard of roughly 2,000 Continental soldiers from Virginia and North Carolina arrived on the same day.

After his proclamation was ignored, Clinton deployed more than 2,500 redcoats onto Long Island, now known as Isle of Palms. The island was one mile northeast of Sullivan’s Island, separated by a waterway known as Breach Inlet. Lee responded by redeploying Thomson and 780 men to fortify the beaches facing the waterway.

The Isle of Palms (Long Island) across Breach Inlet. Taken from Sullivan's Island. Alan Wakim

A coordinated assault of Sullivan’s Island was planned. Parker’s warships would batter the fort while Clinton’s men crossed Breach Inlet and attacked from the rear. However, flawed intelligence doomed the operation before Clinton ever set foot on Long Island. Early scouting reports mistakenly indicated that the inlet was an easily fordable sandbar measuring just 18 inches deep at low tide. In reality, Clinton’s men discovered a treacherous, 7-foot-deep channel driven by a ripping current that made a crossing by foot impossible.

Unfavorable winds and adverse tides further stalled the British operation for several days. Clinton used the delay to abandon the infantry march and organize an amphibious assault using flatboats. Meanwhile, Moultrie used the time to feverishly reinforce the fort’s defenses with his force of 435 men.

June 28, 1776

On the morning of June 28, Parker found sea and weather conditions ideal for an attack. He signaled the fleet to weigh anchor, loosen their sails, and begin their advance, setting in motion Moultrie’s frantic dash back to the fort.

HMS Thunder dropped anchor and fired the opening shots. Within minutes, all nine warships unleashed a thunderous cannonade at the unfinished fort.

The bombardment, however, produced an unexpected result. Instead of splintering into deadly shards, the soft, sponge-like palmetto logs absorbed the cannon’s impact. British officers later acknowledged that the unusual construction made the fort far more resilient than anticipated.

Palmetto logs, such as these, were used to fortify outposts during the Battle of Sullivan's Island. Alan Wakim

Moultrie’s men fired slowly and deliberately to avoid using up the fort’s limited supply of powder. Their carefully aimed shots inflicted heavy damage on the attacking ships, especially Parker’s flagship, HMS Bristol, which suffered extensive casualties. Nearly every officer on its quarterdeck was killed or wounded. Parker was among the wounded when an American shot tore away part of his uniform, leaving his backside exposed.

Also wounded aboard Bristol was Lord William Campbell, South Carolina’s deposed royal governor, who had volunteered to serve with a gun crew. Struck by flying splinters, Campbell never fully recovered from his wounds, dying in England two years later.

Enemy fire severed the fort’s flagstaff during the battle. Sgt. William Jasper climbed over the ramparts, recovered the fallen colors under fire, and fastened them to a sponge staff, raising them once more above the fort. His actions became one of the enduring images of the entire war.

An image of Sgt. Jasper raising the battle flag of the colonial forces over present-day Fort Moultrie on June 28, 1776 during the Battle of Sullivan's Island. New York Public Library. Public Domain

Parker attempted to reposition three frigates to attack exposed areas of the fort. The vessels—Sphinx, Syren and Actaeon—ran aground on a shoal. Sphinx and Syren eventually escaped, but Actaeon remained stranded.

Clinton attempted to force a crossing using flatboats, but Thomson’s men unleashed a devastating barrage of musket and artillery fire from behind their entrenchments, forcing the British to abandon the attempt and leaving Clinton powerless to support Parker’s fleet.

For nearly 10 hours, the two sides exchanged artillery fire beneath a blazing June sun. As evening approached, the battered British fleet withdrew. The crew of the stranded Actaeon abandoned the ship and set her ablaze.

Aftermath

A British engineer's map made following the engagement. Library of Congress. Public Domain

Residents in Charles Town had spent the day anxiously awaiting news. When word arrived that Fort Sullivan still stood, celebrations erupted throughout the city. Even Lee, who had doubted the fort’s chances, praised the defenders. He visited the fort during the battle, observed the men’s calm bravery, and fired several rounds himself before returning to the mainland.

Americans suffered 37 casualties. British casualties approached 220.

Fort Sullivan, now called Fort Moultrie. Alan Wakim

The fort was later renamed Fort Moultrie in honor of its commander. The palmetto tree eventually became a symbol of the state, giving rise to its nickname “The Palmetto State.”

The victory provided a powerful boost to the Patriot cause and delayed major British operations in the South until December 1778.

Six days later, on July 4, 1776, Congress approved the Declaration of Independence.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/28/2026 - 23:20

Speculation Nation

Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,

Americans are natural risk takers. This trait goes back to the country’s founding stock.

Many of our ancestors decided to leave their homelands and set off to the New World.

In search of freedom, land, meat, and prosperity, these pioneers laid the foundation for a bold nation.

As a result, Americans have always excelled in the entrepreneurial arts. We aren’t afraid to take the risk of starting a business. This is surprisingly rare throughout the world. It’s one of the prime reasons our nation is so exceptional.

But today, our risk-taking nature is being taken advantage of.

Gambling EVERYWHERE

You can’t watch sports these days without the inevitable gambling ads. TV hosts offer up their suggested bets and plug the sponsor’s gambling app.

This was absolutely unheard of even 10 years ago. But in 2018, the Supreme Court ruled that sports gambling had been improperly banned by the federal government.

The rest is history. The chart below shows legal sports gambling volume since 2018:

Source: Author

From $4.6 billion in 2018 to $166 billion in 2025! It’s a disturbingly bullish chart. That’s a lot of money being flushed down the drain every year.

According to the largest study of online sports betting, about 96% of people lose money. That’s based on tracking digital payments. Only 4% ever withdrew winnings.

The odds are shockingly bad. And the crazy thing is, even if you do manage to beat the system, the gambling apps will limit your bets to tiny amounts. It’s rigged.

The study also found that lower-income people are hardest hit. They gamble more of their income, and lose more.

Investors are increasingly using “parlay” bets in an attempt to hit it big. You can bet on the outcome of 10+ different events, and depending on their probability, win 100x or more your money. But these parlays almost never hit. And the house makes a lot more money from these bets.

Too many people today view parlays as a retirement plan. There are much better ways to speculate available, like the stock market.

But even parts of the stock market have turned into a casino.

Stocks, Too

Citadel Securities is a firm you may not have heard of. But they handle about 25% of all retail trading in the U.S. Stocks and options.

And their latest data is shocking. In February 2026, 39% of all options volume was on “zero-day” contracts. In other words, options that expire the same day. We call these “ODTE” options. Incredibly risky.

Source: Citadel Securities

This is day trading on steroids. Note how in 2021, 0DTE volume was just 12% of the total.

Many Americans are struggling. Housing is unaffordable, food prices are ridiculous, and the job market is rough. So they’re trying to use 0DTE options to strike it rich.

For the vast majority of traders, this strategy will end in tears.

Prediction Markets – Bet on Anything

And now, the next evolution in gambling. Prediction markets.

The name sounds respectable. Honey, I’m not gambling. I’m predicting.

Same difference.

On sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, you can bet on almost anything.

• Will it rain in New York City today?
• Will Trump say “Dumbocrats” in his speech tonight?
• Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0.25% in October?
• Who will win the UFC fight?

You can even bet on where Taylor Swift’s wedding will take place. New York, or Rhode Island? A few bold bettors say it’ll be in Pennsylvania (3% chance, make 33x your money!).

Source: Kalshi

The suspense is killing me…

Naturally, there is a huge insider trading problem in prediction markets. Someone on Taylor Swift’s team probably knows where the wedding will be. They could bet themselves, but then they might get caught. So they might tip off friends, and share the winnings.

Insider trading is becoming a major problem in prediction markets. We’ve already seen a U.S. soldier get busted for betting on Nicolas Maduro’s removal from power in Venezuela. He won $400,000, but got caught.

Source: DOJ

Of course, there are going to be productive uses of prediction markets. But for most people, it’s really just gambling under a fancier name.

What’s The Solution?

Pandora’s box is open. Gambling has become a big part of our culture and economy.

It’s unlikely to be outlawed or restricted anytime soon. There’s too much money to be made.

But gambling is draining the savings of Americans. And preventing many from investing their money where it should be, in the stock market. Or a small business.

So we should encourage our kids, grandkids, and friends to steer clear of gambling. Many people are developing serious gambling addictions in this new world.

Many have come to see reckless speculation as their only “way out”. This is understandable, but it almost never works.

Sports gambling is not a path to riches. Quite the opposite. And 0DTE options and prediction markets may seem more sophisticated, but the result will be similar for most people.

Instead of making a deposit in the sports book, people should be opening a Roth IRA, or contributing to a 401k. These legal tax shelters offer incredible benefits, and over a long period you will make money with a well-thought out portfolio.

Sports betting was $166 billion last year. Total U.S. investment into 401ks is about $600 billion per annum. And gambling is growing much faster.

Compared to sports gambling, where only 4% win, the choice is clear. Take advantage of the most powerful force in the universe: compounding. And the only way to do that with a high probability is by owning quality stocks.

Be sure to put as much as you can in retirement accounts. Or if you’re already retired, encourage your kids/grandkids to do so. Compounding works best when the government isn’t constantly taking a cut.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/28/2026 - 22:10

Baghdad's Green Zone Locked Down As Officials Arrested In Corruption Sweep

Beyond Sunday's Iranian drone and missile attacks targeting Bahrain and Kuwait, launched in response to earlier U.S. airstrikes, Hormuz shipping traffic remains stable but well below last week's peak, when 57 vessels transited the strait on Wednesday. With maritime flows stable through the critical waterway, attention now shifts to Iraq, where a widening corruption sweep inside Baghdad's Green Zone could become the next area of focus.

Iraq's state-run Iraqi News Agency reported that several political figures were arrested in a corruption probe tied to testimony from former Deputy Oil Minister Adnan al-Jumaili, who was detained last month.

Update: The arrest of former Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister for Refining Affairs, Adnan Mohammed Hamoud al-Jumaili, has so far led not only to a wave of high-profile arrests, but also to the seizure of what may become one of the largest corruption stockpiles uncovered in post-2003… https://t.co/zkvFZSgAuX pic.twitter.com/BK9YWPZmhl

— Basha باشا (@BashaReport) June 28, 2026

Security forces locked down Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone and carried out raids inside the government and embassy district that sits on the west bank of the Tigris River. It contains key Iraqi state institutions, including parliament and government offices, as well as foreign embassies, most notably the U.S. Embassy.

Video footage on X showed security forces in tanks and other heavily armed vehicles locking down the Green Zone.

Iraq's Green Zone in Baghdad has been placed under lockdown as military forces deploy, with reports of raids targeting the residences of government officials, according to The New Region. pic.twitter.com/1i3eKPsTEZ

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 28, 2026

Special forces helicopters shake US embassy Green Zone https://t.co/E1MZhvISxG pic.twitter.com/3jQfT2gY5L

— RT (@RT_com) June 28, 2026

Video: The Green Zone right now—continued security deployment and inspections of vehicles with government license plates. pic.twitter.com/VlMCP317DA

— Wladimir van Wilgenburg (@vvanwilgenburg) June 28, 2026

#العراق
لا أحد يجرؤ على هذا العمل الكبير من دون غطاء أمريكي

📍دخول دبابات جهاز مكافحة الارهاب إلى المنطقة الخضراء في العاصمة بغداد وتطويق جميع مداخلها

📍اعتقالات بالجملة طالت نواب ومسؤولين واصحاب نفوذ في بغداد

📍جهاز مكافحة الارهاب يشتبك مع الفوج الرابع التابع للقصر… pic.twitter.com/cYadoVFx6z

— Raymond Hakim (@RaymondFHakim) June 28, 2026

According to a security report obtained by AP News, seven people were arrested, including five members of Parliament whose immunity was revoked. Some were reportedly linked to the political bloc of former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

🔻A photo of a number of officials and bodyguards who were arrested in the Green Zone. pic.twitter.com/EzCfIfk7ag

— S p r i n t e r (@SprinterPress) June 28, 2026

"Al-Sudani's bloc won the largest share of seats in November's parliamentary elections, but he ultimately stepped aside amid a deadlock in the Coordination Framework — a coalition of Shiite parties allied with Iran that brought al-Sudani to power — over their preferred candidate for premier," AP News noted.

JUST IN: 🇮🇶 Gunfire heard across Baghdad Green Zone as Iraqi forces raid and arrest high profile officials for corruption. pic.twitter.com/orTUPdyKNI

— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) June 28, 2026

The outlet added, "He was replaced by Ali al-Zaidi, a businessman and political newcomer, who emerged as a consensus candidate and received the blessing of the United States."

Iraqi police have released picture of some of the money (dollars) they found in the home of the pro-Iranian Shiite MP Aliya Nassif last night.

She has long been one of the more famous MP’s in the Iraqi Parliament’s anti-corruption committee.

🇮🇶 pic.twitter.com/1gwqP0tfew

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 28, 2026

The immediate read is that this anti-corruption sweep appears aimed at Iraq's political class aligned with Iran. The timing is also critical, coming just after Iran targeted Bahrain and Kuwait with drones and missiles in response to U.S. strikes. That suggests Baghdad, with US influence, may be moving to eliminate Iran-linked networks inside Iraq before they can become a more worrisome pressure point.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/28/2026 - 21:55