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Apollo Chief Economist Delivers Scathing Rebuke Of AI, Finds Zero Margin Boost Outside Of Tech

In his market note published this morning, Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok delivers a scathing review of the failure of AI to boost profit margins outside of tech... which of course is what AI is supposed to do since it is meant to boost productivity across the entire economy, not just a select group of chipmakers. 

As Slok shows in the chart below, so far there are no signs of profit margins rising outside the tech sector. He notes that "this is ultimately what we are waiting for, because the value of AI companies today rests entirely on the promise that margins in the S&P 493 will eventually climb."

As Slok notes, the promise of higher margins for all is the link to current (soaring) market prices, since implicit in the valuations of AI companies are assumptions about future earnings. That's why the current debate about token costs, model routing and token marketplaces is important. If token costs converge toward zero for most AI use cases, then there is not enough revenue for all hyperscalers even in a situation where compute demand surges higher, Slok cautions stomping all over the now traditional "but Jevon's paradox" counterargument. (for more discussion, Slok recommends reading this piece from his colleagues in Apollo Thematic Investing).

Going back to the matter at hand, the key issue is the length of the ROI runway outside the tech sector. In a handful of sectors, software and tech above all, implementation is nearly immediate, since these firms can fold AI into their own products and processes overnight (ironically, it is the same software sector that has been crushed in 2026 due to doubts over the terminal values of ventures which may well be made obsolete by the same AI that is meant to boost their margins).

But that is the exception. Across most of the economy, and especially in capital-intensive, heavily regulated sectors, deep process re-engineering and data governance requirements could delay structural productivity gains well beyond what the market currently projects. The list of slow-moving sectors is long, spanning health care, banking and insurance, energy and utilities, defense and aerospace, pharma and life sciences, manufacturing, transportation and logistics, construction and real estate, education, legal and the public sector.

This, according to Slok, creates a dangerous divergence between aggressive, front-loaded valuations today and a much slower cash flow reality, since equity markets priced for instant earnings growth will face a painful repricing if the productivity hockey-stick takes five years rather than five months.

Put differently, companies will slow their AI spending if they don't see ROI quickly, and the current focus on token optimization is an early warning that AI implementation could be a bumpier, slower road than expected.

Slok's bottom line is that a mismatch between current earnings expectations and the actual time firms need to generate ROI on AI investments could have significant implications for many AI company valuations today

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 13:00

Oman Is Playing Word Games On Iranian Tolls Through Strait: 'Service, Environmental Fees'

Iran has remained on message in the last several weeks despite a few serious flare-ups in tit-for-tat fighting and missile and drone exchanges with US forces, also including Iranian strikes on at least two foreign shipping vessels which refused to heed Tehran's 'rules'.

Hormuz will not return to its pre-war status, Iranian officials insist, even as negotiations are still happening, but are stalled in terms of direct interactions with the American delegation led by Witkoff and Kushner in Qatar. Tehran’s position is that US-Israeli war on Iran forever changed the rules of passage. Safe navigation can no longer be treated as a free service, when Iranian infrastructure is threatened, Tehran has maintained.

The Iranians have been in high level talks with Oman, the coast on the other side of the Hormuz chokepoint passageway, even while Washington brings immense pressure on its southern Arabian ally not to comply - threatening punishment and repercussions.

via Reuters

Concerning the (nuanced, shall we say) Omani position, its Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi has sought to clarify in a new interview that the Sultanate opposes imposing transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, saying it will uphold international maritime law.

However, it seems Oman is still largely in Iran's corner when it comes to jointly collecting "fees" of some kind, and like with much that we've seen of Iran-focused international statements and negotiations, some word games are being played - and wrangling over definitions:

FM Al-Busaidi said Oman opposes tolls on transit itself, which he said are “prohibited” under international law, but drew a “clear distinction between transit fees and maritime, environmental, and navigational services that may be discussed voluntarily with the benefiting states and companies,” the same distinction Iran has invoked to justify proposed “service fees.”

So the word "toll" might be nixed and replaced by talk of "environmental" and "navigational services" fees. It's akin to hotels in various Western cities charging hidden and ambiguous "city" and an "admin/hotel tax" or other ambiguous hard to nail down "fees" - which are often hefty and leave patrons confused and outraged.

The Omani FM claimed that Oman and Iran have agreed that any future arrangements for the strait will remain within international law and the "rights" of the coastal states. So clear enough 'legal loopholes' are being established here - enough to drive a truck through and raise the ire of Washington.

The fuller outline of the Omani plan:

Hormuz Scoop: Oman recently delivered a formal proposal to the United States and other Western allies that outlined a plan in which shipping companies would pay service fees to use the strait, according to the Iranian official and a regional diplomat.https://t.co/bjjgK1KjYk

— Vivian Nereim (@viviannereim) June 30, 2026

But it could be that the Trump administration, eager to end the war - or that is, this little 'excursion' in the Middle East and thus bring oil prices back to permanent pre-war levels, might in the end play ball with the Iranians and Omanis on the issue.

After all, the alternative is resumption of full war and thus escalating crude and energy prices globally - and that's precisely the kind of economic and political leverage the Iranians are counting on. There might be plenty of US willingness to look the other way to get energy transit flowing once again.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 12:40

Deutsche Bank: Tesla's Q2 Vehicle Deliveries Tracking Above Consensus Expectations

Tesla could be on track to deliver a stronger than expected second quarter, according to a new research note from Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu and his automotive team.

The firm now expects Tesla to report approximately 416,000 vehicle deliveries during the second quarter of 2026. That estimate is about 10,000 vehicles above the company compiled consensus and sits modestly ahead of most Wall Street expectations, which generally range between 413,000 and 420,000 deliveries.

If Deutsche Bank's forecast proves accurate, Tesla would post delivery growth of 16% from the first quarter and 8% from the same period a year ago. The results would mark a meaningful rebound following a weaker start to the year. According to the analysts, international markets are doing most of the heavy lifting.

Europe is expected to be Tesla's strongest region, with deliveries rising nearly 40% from a year ago. Deutsche Bank believes improving demand across the region is the primary reason the company is on pace to outperform expectations.

China is also expected to contribute to the stronger quarter, although growth there is forecast to be much more modest at roughly 3% year over year. Registration data through May tracked close to 74,000 vehicles, while the bank estimates total second quarter deliveries from China will reach approximately 133,000 units. June order activity has also remained solid, with roughly 40,000 orders recorded through June 21. Deutsche Bank believes there is enough time left in the quarter for deliveries to reach its estimate.

North America remains the weakest part of Tesla's business. The bank expects deliveries in the region to decline about 21% from the same quarter last year. Even so, volumes are still projected to improve about 7% compared with the first quarter, suggesting conditions have stabilized somewhat despite softer demand.

Beyond the quarter itself, Deutsche Bank remains constructive on Tesla's full year outlook. The firm believes the company can deliver roughly 1.63 million vehicles during 2026, which would keep annual deliveries essentially flat even without a meaningful contribution from any new vehicle models.

The report suggests Tesla may not need a major product launch to stabilize sales this year. Instead, stronger demand in Europe combined with resilient performance in China could be enough to offset continued weakness in North America.

Investors will now be watching Tesla's official delivery report to see whether the company's international strength is enough to produce another quarter that comes in ahead of expectations.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 12:00

Trump Suggests He May Not Sign Bipartisan Housing Affordability Bill

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump indicated on June 29 that he may not sign a bill that Congress passed that aims to make housing more affordable.

Trump told reporters at the White House in Washington that he has not decided whether to sign the housing bill, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which Congress approved in a bipartisan fashion earlier in the month and targets permitting times, boosts financial incentives, and aims to make it easier to obtain mortgages.

“I think it’s so unimportant compared to the Save America Act,” Trump said.

“To me, compared to the Save America Act, just about everything is a big yawn.”

Trump had been poised to sign the housing legislation, but canceled those plans so as to try to force Congress to pass the Save America Act, which would require voters to prove they are American citizens to vote in federal elections.

The House of Representatives has passed the act, but it has stalled in the Senate, where Democrats oppose it over concerns that it could exclude voters who meet the standards but lack the necessary documents.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said over the weekend that the housing bill would be transmitted to Trump on Monday and that he was confident it would become law.

Johnson said the bill was a priority for Republicans because it would bring down housing costs and reduce regulation.

Trump has said that concerns about affordability are overblown.

“They say, ‘Oh, he doesn’t realize prices are high,’” he said in a speech in December 2025.

“Prices are coming down very substantially. But they have a new word. They always have a hoax. The new word is affordability.”

He said more recently that he does not consider the financial situation of Americans when deciding on next steps in the war with Iran.

Trump said Monday at the White House, where he signed a directive expanding Americans’ ability to repair their own vehicles, that the housing bill had not yet been sent to him.

“It’s coming, I understand,” he said. “And then I'll make a decision.”

Once Trump receives the bill, he has 10 days, excluding any Sundays, to veto or sign the legislation.

If he does not act within that period, the bill will become law automatically. If Trump vetoes the legislation, Congress can override the veto with a two-thirds vote in each chamber.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 11:40

Democrat-Led States Sue Trump Administration Over Medicaid Work Requirement Rules

Via American Greatness,

A coalition of 25 Democrat-led states and the District of Columbia filed a lawsuit Monday challenging the Trump administration’s rules implementing new Medicaid work requirements. The suit claims the work regulations unlawfully restrict exemptions for medically vulnerable recipients.

The lawsuit, filed in federal court in Massachusetts, seeks to overturn the administration’s rule governing eligibility exemptions tied to the work requirements.

The states contend the rule conflicts with congressional intent by making it more difficult for individuals with illnesses to qualify for exemptions.

According to the complaint, the Trump administration’s policy will “cause immediate and irreparable harm” to state Medicaid programs.

The lawsuit argues the rule “will further strain safety net providers, lead to more uncompensated emergency care, and raise other costs associated with newly uninsured, medically frail residents.

And it will cause rural hospitals to be even more likely to shutter.”

The legal challenge was brought by 23 Democratic attorneys general along with the Democratic governors of Kentucky and Pennsylvania, both of which have Republican attorneys general.

The states also allege the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) violated administrative procedure laws by adopting a rule that differs significantly from earlier guidance provided to states on implementing the work requirements.

The Trump administration has defended Medicaid work requirements as part of an effort to ensure public assistance programs are directed toward eligible recipients while encouraging workforce participation.

Under the policy, Medicaid beneficiaries must complete at least 80 hours of work or other approved activities each month to maintain coverage no later than Jan. 1.

States must begin notifying Medicaid recipients by Aug. 31 about how they can comply with the new requirements.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 11:05

AeroVironment Erupts On "Asymmetric Warfare Boom"

AeroVironment shares surged the most in nearly two decades in early trading after the defense contractor - best known for its loitering munitions and unmanned systems - reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results and issued fiscal 2027 revenue guidance that topped Wall Street estimates tracked by Bloomberg.

AeroVironment's fiscal fourth-quarter revenue jumped 31% to $642 million, well ahead of the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $556.4 million, driven mostly by its autonomous systems unit and soaring demand for Switchblade, Red Dragon, and Titan.

Switchblade

Adjusted EBITDA of $140.1 million and adjusted earnings of $1.84 per share also beat expectations. Initial fiscal 2027 guidance was broadly in line, with revenue projected at $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion, implying about 10% organic growth.

A quick look at AeroVironment's fourth-quarter earnings, courtesy of Bloomberg:

• Revenue $641.6 million vs. $275.1 million y/y, estimate $556.4 million
• Adjusted EPS $1.84 vs. $1.61 y/y, estimate $1.41
• Income from operations $56.9 million vs. $13.8 million y/y, estimate $39.4 million
• Adjusted Ebitda $140.1 million vs. $61.6 million y/y, estimate $126.1 million
• Gross profit $202.6 million vs. $100.3 million y/y, estimate $175.6 million

... and 2027 year forecast:

• Sees revenue $2.13 billion to $2.23 billion, estimate $2.16 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Sees adjusted EPS $3.02 to $3.34, estimate $3.79
• Sees adjusted Ebitda $305 million to $325 million, estimate $346.2 million

Stifel analysts noted AeroVironment's strength in the drone and counter-drone space:  

AeroVironment is a leader in several key areas in new defense, namely loitering munitions (Switchblade family of drones) that we believe will be critical as the entire industry undergoes a transformation.

The company's merger with BlueHalo provides exposure in space, counterdrone, and missiles, all of which are priorities for the DoD.

We anticipate a steep ramp in organic EBITDA in the legacy AVAV portfolio and BlueHalo.

Our Buy rating reflects AeroVironment's positioning as a pure-play new defense tech company with rapidly growing sales and earnings driving increased investor enthusiasm and multiple expansion.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Will Lee noted:

AeroVironment's fiscal 2027 sales targets seem achievable, fueled by expectations of robust demand across its loitering munition, drone and counter-drone, or C-UAS, portfolio. Still, sales are skewed toward 2H, and US budget delays might push them further out into 2028.

KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Michael Leshock noted:

AeroVironment is positioned to capitalize on the proliferation of UAS/cUAS and increased government spending in defense and space-related programs. Should geopolitical tensions intensify, AVAV is positioned among the top beneficiaries.

In early trading, AeroVironment shares were up nearly 31%, which would mark the stock's largest one-day gain on record if the move holds into the cash session. Year to date, shares are down 42.5% as of Monday's close. Short interest remains elevated, with about 13% of the float sold short, equivalent to roughly 4.8 million shares.

Perfect timing on AeroVironment. We recently laid out for readers how to capitalize on the accelerating "asymmetric warfare boom," a theme that appears poised to gain momentum in the quarters ahead. Read the full note here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:55

Another JOLT: Jobs Opening Smash Expectations, Despite Another Drop In Number Of Hires

Another month, another whopping beat by the BLS JOLTS job openings report.

One month after the April JOLTS report came out with a whopping 9-sigma beat to estimates, when it showed that in April the US added a whopping 731K job openings to 7.618 million (and up 520K from a year ago), smashing estimates of 6.9 million, moments ago the BLS reported that in May, the number of total job openings printed at 7.594 million, almost as if it was designed to post another improvement from last month's downward revised 7.585MM (from 7.618MM), and once again smashed estimates of 7.296MM.

While not as historic as last month's record 9-sigma beat, today's print was still a solid 2-sigma beat to the median estimate.

It was also the 5th consecutive beat of estimates and 8th in the past 10!

Where did the openings come from? According to the BLS,the notable increase came from an increase in wholesale trade (+71,000), but as can be seen from the table below, there were also increases in manufacturing and leisure and hospitality; on the other side, openings dropped in financial services, and private education.

Notably, unlike last month's record increase in Professional and Business service job openings in April, May's increase for the category was a tame 12K to 1.485 million. Also of note, Federal government dropped by 14K to 83K, the second lowest print of 2026 and not much above the record low hit last August, even as the total number of government job openings rose driven by an increase in state and local.

The continued strength in job openings prints, coupled with the modest increase in unemployed workers means that after 9 months of labor surplus, we now have a second consecutive month of more job openings than unemployed workes, and in May the surplus was 287K, the biggest surplus since Jan 2025, and a reversal to the "deficit" regime observed since last July.

The latest JOLTS report also means that after falling back to 0.9x in March, in April the ratio of job openings rose over 1.0x and was the highest since January 2025.

But while the job openings number was very strong for another month, this month we saw continued weakness in hires and barely any improvement in quits, In May, the number of Quits dropped to 5.170MM from 5.215MM, again approaching the post covid lows; quits - or the "take his job and shove it" indicator - rose modestly to 3.065MM from 3.043MM, and followed the 183K plunge in March. 

It goes without saying that a surge in job openings while hires are dropping, and few people are voluntarily leaving their jobs, while payrolls are growing (as we will find out on Thursday), leads one to scratch their head just what is going on here, besides data massaging of course.

In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the May payrolls report surged by 172K, even if the JOLTS implied number is barely a third as strong.

Overall, this was a very strong JOLTS report, and shows that after some significant weakness in late 2025, US labor market has continued to stabilize throughout 2026. Of course, the report also lags the payrolls report by a month, which is why it gives us little insight into what Thurday's jobs report will be, although if the hires less separations dataset is any indication, it suggests that the June print will come well below expectations. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:35

Supreme Court: States Can Ban Trans Athletes From Girls' Sports

The Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that states can block biological transgender males from competing in girls' sports. In a 6-3 ruling, the court gave an iron-clad answer to the question. 

Writing for the majority in West Virginia v. B.P.J. (consolidated with Little v. Hecox), Justice Brett Kavanaugh held that neither Title IX nor the Equal Protection Clause requires schools to carve out an exception for transgender athletes who've undergone hormone therapy or never experienced male puberty. States can draw the line at biological sex, full stop - no judge-administered athlete-by-athlete fairness hearings required. The ruling reverses both the Fourth Circuit (which sided with West Virginia's B.P.J.) and the Ninth Circuit (which sided with Idaho's Lindsay Hecox), and lands squarely in the wake of last year's Skrmetti decision, extending its "this is a sex classification, not a transgender classification" framework from medical care straight into the locker room.

Background

Roughly half the states - approximately 27 - have enacted laws in recent years restricting participation in girls' and women's school sports to those whose biological sex, as determined at birth, matches the team category. These measures, often titled "Fairness in Women's Sports" acts or similar, reflect concerns over competitive fairness, safety, and the preservation of opportunities for biological females amid rising participation by transgender athletes.

The two cases before the Court arise from Idaho and West Virginia.

Idaho's law (enacted 2020) categorically bars transgender girls and women from girls' and women's teams in public elementary, secondary, and postsecondary schools. It defines eligibility based on biological sex and requires sex verification (often involving invasive procedures) for athletes on girls' teams but not boys' teams.

West Virginia's law (enacted 2021) similarly requires that participation on teams designated for girls or women be based on biological sex.

Lindsay Hecox, a biological male, challenged Idaho's law after seeking to compete on Boise State University's women's track and cross-country teams - and later participated in club sports. Hecox's lawsuit alleged violations of the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment, claiming the law discriminates on the basis of sex and transgender status and imposes unequal verification burdens.

B.P.J., another biological male who has identified as a girl since third grade and has taken puberty blockers and estrogen, challenged West Virginia's ban after competing on their high school's girls' track and cross-country teams. The suit claims violations of both the Equal Protection Clause and Title IX (the federal law prohibiting sex discrimination in federally funded education programs).

Lower federal courts blocked enforcement of both laws. The 9th Circuit found Idaho's measure likely violated equal protection by intending to exclude transgender girls/women and by imposing sex-based verification only on girls' teams. The 4th Circuit held West Virginia's law likely violated Title IX by discriminating against B.P.J. on the basis of sex.

At oral arguments on January 13 of this year, the states and supporting parties (including the Trump administration) argued that the laws classify on the basis of biological sex - a classification long accepted in sports to ensure fairness and safety given average physiological differences in strength, speed, muscle mass, bone density, and cardiovascular capacity that emerge after male puberty. They contended that sex-separated teams are permissible and even required under Title IX regulations, that states need not create perfect individual accommodations, and that allowing transgender girls/women (even those on hormone therapy) into female categories undermines the very purpose of sex-segregated sports. They emphasized that transgender boys can generally compete on boys' teams, so the laws do not single out transgender status per se.

Challengers countered that the bans discriminate on the basis of transgender status and sex, that many transgender girls/women (especially those who never experienced full male puberty or who have undergone hormone suppression) lack meaningful competitive advantages, and that categorical exclusion stigmatizes transgender students, deprives them of athletic opportunities, and violates both constitutional equal protection and Title IX's promise of equal access. They urged individualized assessments rather than blanket rules.

Justices' questioning suggested a likely majority inclined to uphold the state laws, with conservative members emphasizing biological differences, state authority over education and athletics, and deference to longstanding sex-based categories in sports. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:20

Conference Board Consumer Survey Signals Ugly Job Market, Weakest 'Present Situation' In Over 5 Years

Amid a plethora of revisions (lower), The Conference Board's measure of Americans' Consumer Confidence rose very modestly in June (from 90.6 to 91.2 - a big miss on the headline print's expectation of 94.4).

However, while Expectations rose to their highest level of the year, the Present Situation tumbled to its lowest since March 2021...

“Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

“Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month.

However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%).

Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now.

This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.”

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations were less elevated...

Among age groups, confidence for consumers under age 35 remained the highest, but confidence for all age groups trended downward on a six-month moving average basis.

By income, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence was mixed or little changed across all categories.

By generation, confidence fell the most for the Silent Generation but was stable or lower for others on a six-month moving average basis.

By political affiliation, confidence among Independents and Democrats rose while Republicans were somewhat less positive on a month-over-month basis.

Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism in June.

References to prices and oil and gas eased in frequency but remain elevated. Mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict eased, reflecting some easing of consumer concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:16

Today Will Or Won't See A US-Iran Meeting In Doha Which Will Be "Perhaps Important, Perhaps Not"

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Build 'em up or Burnham down?

In typical form, today will or won’t see a US-Iran meeting in Doha; which will be ‘perhaps important, perhaps not’; and either discussing the MoU or unfreezing $6bn of Iranian assets. So, the ‘peacefire’ continues, as expected, but with little chance this holds permanently. Likewise in Lebanon, where the US is pushing to disarm Hezbollah --which refuses-- and Israel won’t leave until that happens. And Gaza, where the Board of Peace is finalising its plans as the IDF warns Hamas is readying for war. And Iraq, which just set a September 30 deadline for pro-Iran militias to disarm. And Libya, where Marco Rubio is fighting another crisis. To give an early Christmas present to Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene, Israel also says it’s developing space lasers.

That’s as South Korea announced a $1.3 trillion AI and IT investment plan to maintain an edge vs. China over the next decade – which is showing footage of a 6G fighter jet and conducting tests of a hypersonic ramjet that can change shape in flight; China has restricted dual use exports to Mitsubishi, Hitachi, Komatsu units; Supermicro’s Taiwan offices were raided in a chip smuggling probe; and a Rakuten-led group is set for state subsidies to build Japan's answer to Starlink. In short, what we see around us is as about massive, urgent investment in defence and AI as much it is about related energy (i.e., Hormuz), broader commodities, and supply chains.

That’s unbelievably expensive to address. For example, the US is pushing for a $1.5 trillion defence budget, while keeping up with South Korea alone would require Europe to invest $14 trillion to match it equivalently. Tellingly, the UK will today unveil its new defence strategy, which shifts to cheap drones from larger platforms --guided missile destroyers and frigates are cut-- as outgoing PM Starmer presides over a plan that will only reach 2.7% of GDP by 2030, not the promised 3.0%; some say he wants to run NATO next (to tell his successor he must reach 3.5%).

So, we may soon require:

• Creative book-keeping: Hungary’s new PM claims his predecessor hid half of the budget deficit, which is actually 8% of GDP.
• Spending cuts: and good luck with that.
• New taxes: France is now looking for EU-wide taxes to fund a planned €2 trillion commission budget, with the idea that foreign firms, like US tech and polluters, could pay more.
• Tariffs: last week, US Treasury Secretary Bessent cited Hamiltonian economic statecraft; yesterday, White House macro-maven Miran penned a WSJ op-ed arguing for US tariffs. The EU just gave China an October deadline to address their huge --and predictable-- trade imbalance, kicking the can down the road, but pointing to a trade war and/or Hamilton (and Trump) moment ahead, which could prove transformative. Even Paul Krugman is telling the EU to tariff China.
• Industrial policy: which is very much back in vogue, even if what this means is vague for many.
• A compliant central bank: There, the Supreme Court just overturned precedent to allow the White House to remove heads of federal agencies, greatly empowering the executive. It kept FOMC member Cook in her seat for now until due process plays out but did not address whether “for cause” removals at the Fed are also constitutional or not, allowing Trump to restart the process of trying to fire her over allegations of mortgage fraud and, in time, to potentially relitigate if the Fed is a special case or not.

The ECB’s Lagarde, who years ago said the Bank should work hand-in-hand with governments to overcome geopolitical crises, just stated Europe is getting better at coping with economic shocks due to a better financial framework and the green transition. European refineries’ flexibility on jet fuel helped; but China did more by not importing as much oil, and the US and Japan by draining their SPRs, all due to *their* economic statecraft. Now the risk is rising of a China cut-off of rare earths to Europe, which account for half its total (and Russia a quarter), and of more expensive Chinese imports across the board. What if that transpires from October onwards – and if we get more war vs. Iran after the US midterms?

In the UK, the question is ‘Build ‘em up or Burnham down?’ as the soon-to-be UK PM just called to “rewire” the UK economy. He’s talking about devolution - which hasn’t boosted growth in Scotland; equalisation across regions – which most countries want but fail to achieve; (expensive?) public control of utilities; and reindustrialisation – in a period of protectionism and bloc-based realignment. In short, is the UK going to tariff everybody, or the US, or Europe, or China? Logically, one should start from there, not locally, only to then hit a low tariff ceiling on the attempted way back up.

In short, political economy remains in flux. Markets don’t think things through in such detail or depth: whatever happens is an input into the ‘up or down from here’ binary. However, the scale on which things can move up or down based on how political-economy transforms shouldn’t be understated. JPY is at a 40-year low vs. the dollar at time of writing: where will other crosses go as things unfold?

Yet even as politicians --and central bankers-- try to relearn things from first principles, revolutionary change can reshape the architecture which they think they are operating in. For example, regular readers may recall that years ago I floated the idea of letters of marque as a way to channel private sector energies and capital into national security without busting budgets or political constraints like no boots on the ground. On that note, see the following proposal taken from X and think about it seriously:

“A durable solution to the Iran problem is pretty easy:

1. Form the American Persian Energy Company (APEC)
2. Give 25% to Exxon and Chevron, who will capitalize it and provide expertise
3. Ground invasion of Iran, but only with volunteer troops who will be compensated with APEC stock
4. US military provides air cover and logistical support
5. Defecting Iranian generals will also be compensated with a quantity of APEC stock dependent on their rank and the number of soldiers they bring with them
6. All oil and gas rights in Iran are granted to the APEC
7. New $2 trillion American company is created out of thin air
8. Iran temporarily governed by APEC CEO while a transition to a suitable civilian government is negotiated”

If you think this kind of thing doesn’t happen (anymore: it used to) then you haven’t noticed how 18th and 19th century thinking is not just back in vogue but is actively winning vs. the post-Cold War political establishment consensus; or how modern mercenaries like Blackwater operate.

Political economy is changing; it will change much, much more; and markets will change with it. The volatility we are seeing in the Hormuz ‘peacefire’ is just a taste of what’s to come. Some assets will be built up. Others will be burned down.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:00

"Right Above The Cockpit": Drone Strikes JetBlue Plane On Final Approach To JFK

JetBlue Airways Flight 948 reportedly struck a small drone while the narrow-body aircraft was in the traffic pattern on final approach to John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City.

JetBlue pilots reported striking a drone earlier today as they approached New York - JFK Airport at ASALT, the waypoint in the center of the video, about 11:16:45 UTC. JetBlue #B6948 landed safely from Las Vegas moments later. The FAA is investigating. https://t.co/6p9iO8nCVv pic.twitter.com/aWdCiJSVJ1

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) June 29, 2026

A JetBlue pilot could be heard talking with Kennedy Tower about the drone strike. The pilot said the jet collided with a drone during a turn about two miles before landing. When the controller asked for confirmation, the pilot said the object struck "right above the cockpit."

"Just quickly, I couldn't talk to approach, but we collided with a drone back there in the turn," the pilot said.

"You said you collided?" the air traffic controller asked.

"Yep, it hit us right, right above the cockpit," the pilot said.

This morning, JetBlue Airbus A321-231 (N979JT) operating flight B6948 from Las Vegas to New York JFK reported a drone strike while on approach to JFK.

According to the crew, the drone struck the aircraft just above the cockpit at approximately 3,000 feet around 7:15 a.m. The… pic.twitter.com/VJNVOoBrW5

— Turbine Traveller (@Turbinetraveler) June 29, 2026

The FAA released a statement shortly after the mid-air incident:

The pilot of JetBlue Airlines Flight 948 reported striking a drone at approximately 3,000 feet altitude while on final approach to John F. Kennedy International Airport around 7:15 a.m. local time on Monday, June 29. A post-flight inspection did not reveal any damage to the aircraft. The FAA will investigate. Contact the airline for more information.

FAA Statement
The pilot of JetBlue Airlines Flight 948 reported striking a drone at approximately 3,000 feet altitude while on final approach to John F. Kennedy International Airport around 7:15 a.m. local time on Monday, June 29. A post-flight inspection did not reveal any…

— The FAA ✈️ (@FAANews) June 29, 2026

The incident is yet another warning that even some of the most heavily monitored and defended airspace in the country remains highly exposed to small, low-cost drones. It also underscores the urgent need for counter-UAS deployments at major airports and other critical infrastructure nodes, including power grids and data centers, before a devastating drone attack becomes a national story across every front page.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 09:45

US-Iran Have Delegations In Qatar, But No Direct Talks; Hormuz Energy Transit Rebounds - Oil Down Near Prewar Levels

The Witkoff-Kushner delegation is now confirmed to be in Doha, and yet in its latest official statement Iran's foreign ministry has made clear the Iranian side has no plans to meet US officials "at any level in the next few days."

"What will probably be done in Doha tomorrow is a discussion on the implementation of clauses of the Memorandum of Understanding, including the clause related to the release of Iran’s restricted assets with the Qatari parties," spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says. "Therefore, I emphasize that we have not planned any meeting with the American side at any level for the next few days," Baghaei added. Meanwhile:

Iran’s Ghalibaf: If They Do Not Want To Fulfil Their Commitments In The Talks, We Are Ready For War

Tehran is expecting that $6 billion of Iranian frozen funds in Qatar will be transferred back by week's end, but Qatar's foreign ministry indicated Tuesday this had yet to happen. Up for discussion among mediators currently in Qatar is precisely the fate of Iran's frozen funds, and implementing agreed-upon transfers. However, Washington has for days accused Iran's military of violating the ceasefire and its commitments under the MoU - a charge that Tehran has fired back in turn.

via AFP

On Monday President Trump had claimed that Iran "requested a meeting" following the exchange of strikes last week, but no such meeting appears to be materializing - at least not a direct one in Doha. But according to the latest from Al Jazeera Tuesday:

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman also said that US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are in the country’s capital, Doha, despite having no meetings with Iranian officials scheduled.

Iran remains defiant, insisting that it will not concede anything - especially regards to its control over the Strait of Hormuz, vowing it's ready to return to armed conflict if things can't be resolved at the negotiating table.

Tehran is asserting its 'right' to manage the strait under its own protocol, and while Oman's cooperation has been sought, Iranian officials have said they will proceed with or without Oman's help and that this will include tolls, towards partically funding the reconstruction of Iran.

Part of this entrenched position is Iran wants its frozen assets before peace talks, while the US said is saying it must demonstrate it is worthy first. Fox has cited Baghaei, who "told reports that clauses in Tehran’s interim deal with the U.S. must be implemented before talks on a final agreement can begin."

"Baghaei also said the communication channel between Iran and the U.S. is based on political factions, not military ones," the report said.

Still, despite the apparently unbending positions of the warring sides, oil is responding favorably, as the Trump administration no doubt wants to be on message going into the July 4th holiday:

Oil prices were on track Tuesday for their steepest quarterly decline since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, as investors watched for potential U.S.-Iran talks in Doha amid a strained interim ceasefire in the 4-month-old war.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was headed for a second monthly decline of roughly 19%, while Brent crude was on pace for a third consecutive monthly drop, down about 20% in June.

Both Brent and WTI have fallen sharply this quarter and are trading near pre-war levels as more ships move out of the Gulf, easing some supply concerns.

Hormuz will not return to its pre-war status. Tehran’s position is that the unlawful US-Israeli war on Iran changed the rules of passage. Safe navigation can no longer be treated as a free service imposed on Iran while its waters, coast, and security infrastructure are…

— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) June 30, 2026

This is also amid a rebound in shipping traffic to kick off this week, after tit-for-tat weekend attacks:

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded Tuesday morning, with eight crossings so far after 40 vessels moved through the critical waterway Monday, according to Kpler data.

The rebound comes after some days of declining traffic following attacks on commercial vessels in the region due to renewed strikes between the U.S. and Iran late last week. Crossings fell from 76 on Wednesday, June 24, to 59 on Thursday, when the Ever Lovely was attacked.

Traffic then dropped to 50 crossings Friday, 39 on Saturday, when the Kiku was attacked, and just 24 on Sunday before recovering to 40 on Monday.

Of Monday’s 40 crossings, 10 vessels used the southern Omani route, which the U.S. Navy is helping coordinate. Thirty-two of the 40 vessels were large tankers and bulk carriers.

In fresh comments on the status of energy transit in the Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said in a fresh media interview reported in Bloomberg that only China has bought Iranian oil since the US lifted sanctions.

Strong signaling out of Israeli defense establishment, following Monday remarks by Katz...

'Israel is preparing for the immediate resumption of military operations against Iran.'

Senior Middle East Correspondent @ariel_oseran joins @benitalevin on #TheRundown pic.twitter.com/8c7YfNgaMP

— i24NEWS English (@i24NEWS_EN) June 30, 2026

"Iranians thus far have not been able to sell their oil, because the buyers are a little weary of, will it be resanctioned?" Bessent posed on Fox, noting that it's still trading at a discount to China.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 09:30

Obamacare Enrollment Drops By 3 Million; Experts Disagree On Cause

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

Obamacare enrollment declined by nearly 3 million in 2026, sparking renewed debate about the affordability of healthcare in America.

National politicians and policy experts disagreed on the reasons for the dip in enrollment, with some saying that it was driven by rising premiums. 

Others said the decline was evidence that program integrity measures taken by the Trump administration were successful in rooting out fraud and waste. 

The program grew significantly during the declared National Health Emergency from 2021 through 2024, when eligibility verification requirements were relaxed and participants were automatically reenrolled.

Enrollment peaked at 22.1 million last year and dropped to 19.2 million as of February, according to federal data released June 26.

Though that’s still higher than in any year except 2025, some analysts interpreted the decline as a massive loss of coverage resulting from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025.

“One year later, the Trump administration’s policies are bleeding the revenue of the American tax system and have left millions of Americans without health coverage and food assistance,” Amina Khalique and Natasha Murphy wrote in a June 25 article for Center for American Progress, writing on the anniversary of the bill’s passage.

Others including Brian Blase, president of Paragon Health Institute, say that the changes mostly reverted to pre-pandemic coverage and policy rules, which had been an incentive for fraud. 

“Excessive subsidies and zero-premium plans created unusually strong incentives for improper enrollment, while weak verification systems, permissive enrollment pathways, and insufficient oversight allowed those incentives to be exploited at scale,” Blase wrote in a June analysis.

The Trump Administration has focused on program integrity, preventing about 2.9 million enrollees from receiving Obamacare subsidies that they didn’t qualify for, according to a statement from the assistant secretary for Health and Human Services.

The government estimates that 2.6 million fraudulent enrollments remain in the program, down from an estimated high of 5.6 million last year.

Either way, the changes left millions uninsured, according to some experts. 

About 9 percent of 2025 Obamacare enrollees became uninsured as of March, according to a survey conducted by health research group KFF.

“While the Trump administration attributes this drop in enrollment to their attempts to address fraud, this coverage loss happened at the same time millions of people faced steep increases in their premium payments,” Cynthia Cox, a senior vice president at KFF, wrote on social media on June 29.

“Real people lost their health insurance or are now paying more,” Cox said.

The average monthly premium for 2026 is $178, compared to $113 in 2025, according to KFF. However, the 2026 premium is lower than the 2021 premium after adjusting for inflation.

The benchmark silver premium, which is used to set subsidy rates, increased by about 25 percent in 2026, according to KFF.

Democrats seized on the enrollment data to criticize President Donald Trump and Republicans over healthcare affordability. 

“Trump and congressional Republicans let healthcare premiums explode and now millions of Americans can’t afford coverage,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) wrote on social media on June 29.

“That’s not right,” said Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, responding to the argument that premium increases have forced people off of the program. 

“The reality is we have a lot of fake people on the policies,” Oz told Fox News on June 29. 

Oz cited that 40 percent of enrollees never use the policies as proof that many either do not want the coverage, do not realize they have it, or were fraudulently enrolled.

Prior to the introduction of the enhanced subsidies in 2021, Obamacare enrollment had declined for four years.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 09:15

US Home Prices Drop For 3rd Straight Month

Home prices in America's top 20 cities were expected to fall MoM for the 3rd straight month in April (the latest reported data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller) and they did... but only marginally.

Prices fell 0.04% MoM in April (less than the 0.10% decline expected), but the annual change rose modestly from +0.88% YoY to +1.14% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

"Monthly price movements show seasonal strength masking underlying softness," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The oddly tight coupling with Fed Reserves suggests the path is lower...

"Geographic dispersion remains pronounced," Godec continued.

"Midwest and Northeast markets are still leading moderate growth, while many Sun Belt and Western metros see ongoing declines.

Chicago was again the strongest market with a 6.5% annual gain, trailed by New York (3.8%) and Cleveland (3.2%).

Seattle’s 2.3% year-over-year drop was the steepest in April, with Denver (-1.8%), Tampa (-1.8%), Dallas (-1.6%), and Phoenix (-1.7%) also among the notable decliners.

The nearly 9 percent performance spread between Chicago and Seattle highlights how localized housing trends remain.

On a YoY basis, Chicago reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.5% increase in April, followed by New York and Cleveland with annual increases of 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively.

Seattle posted the lowest return in April, falling 2.3%.

The chart below compares year-over-year returns for different housing price ranges (tiers) in Chicago.

"The affordability pinch remains a key headwind," Godec concluded.

"After dipping below 6% earlier this year, 30-year mortgage rates climbed back to 6.3% in April, keeping financing costs elevated. In this higher-rate environment, home price growth remains constrained, with housing largely treading water in nominal terms and falling in real terms."

Finally, with inflation accelerating to 3.8% in April, U.S. home values have now declined in real terms for an 11th straight month, further eroding inflation-adjusted housing wealth.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 09:09

Stock Futures Flat As S&P Closes Out Best Quarter In 6 Years

US index futures erased an earlier gain following some belligerent Iran headlines, but are still set to end a quarter that is set to be the S&P 500’s best in six years with markets behaving as though period-end dynamics have now completed. As of 8:30am, the S&P 500 was flat, pointing to a calm finish for the index that has surged 14% since the beginning of April. Nasdaq futures rose 0.1% erasing a sizable gain earlier, but on pace to close the quarter with a staggering 24% gain; In premarket trading, semis are mixed, Mag7 are flat, Cyclicals are generally leading Defensives with exceptions being Energy (lower) and Healthcare (higher). European stocks rallied, with gains led by Abivax SA after a clinical-trial update soothed investor concerns. Chipmakers drove Asian shares higher. JPM says with the major US holiday coming up, keep an eye on low liquidity moves in the region. Bond yields reversed an earlier drop to trade higher by 1bp pushing the 10Y yield to 4.39%. The USD is stronger, looking to erase all of yesterday’s losses. Commodities are stronger with crude flat into today’s US / Iran discussions, Metals seeing a bid, and Ags outperforming the other commodities complexes. Today's economic data calendar includes April Case-Shiller home prices (9am), June MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers), June consumer confidence and May JOLTS job openings (10am) and June Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session. Chairman Warsh participates in an ECB panel event on Wednesday in Sintra

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Alphabet +0.3%, Amazon +0.1%, Apple unchanged, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Microsoft +0.4%, Nvidia +0.8%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.9%).

• AeroVironment (AVAV) soars 30% after the defense company reported fourth-quarter results that topped expectations and forecast 2027 revenue that at the midpoint exceeds estimates. Analysts note strength in its drones business.
• Aevex (AVEX) climbs 12% after winning a $50 million contract from the US Air Force to continue expanding unmanned mission‑support capabilities for current operations.
• Block (XYZ) inches about 1% higher after Piper Sandler upgraded the digital payments company by two notches to overweight, citing earnings potential.
• Concentrix (CNXC) tumbles 23% after the call-center company slashed its full-year outlook. The company’s forecasts for reported revenue and adjusted earnings per share also undershot Wall Street’s expectations.
• Patrick Industries (PATK) and LCI Industries (LCII) announced plans to combine in an all-stock merger. LCI shares are up 7%, while Patrick shares are halted.
• Replimune (REPL) gains 6% after BMO Capital Markets upgraded the drug developer by two notches to outperform from underperform, citing a clearer regulatory path for the firm’s experimental treatment of advanced melanoma.
• Space stocks were among the biggest US premarket gainers. Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. eased after Monday’s rally as Bitcoin dipped below $60,000. Microsoft Corp. was firmer, but still on course for its worst month since December 2000.

In other news, biotech company Abivax reported positive ABTECT maintenance part two results for experimental bowel disease drug Obefazimod. Susquehanna is attempting to identify individuals it claims made at least $100 million trading on inside information about a Chinese government crackdown on cross-border brokerages. Millennium will back a new quant hedge fund firm led by former Citadel researcher Paul Dou. Taiwan government agencies raided the offices of Super Micro Computer and several local affiliates as part of an investigation into the alleged smuggling of Nvidia chips into China. Blackstone is selling its stakes in a trio of data centers across Northern Virginia for $3.5 billion, cashing out of part of a bet it made less than three years ago.

Global stocks cemented gains ahead of another strong earnings season that analysts say will be driven by the debt-fueled investment boom in artificial intelligence. A strong macro backdrop will offer added support as falling oil prices help keep worries about inflationary pressures in check.

“US futures are being supported by renewed demand for tech, with investors returning to the view that IT offers one of the few strong and reliable earnings-growth stories,” said Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. “That makes any jitters in tech look like a buying opportunity, and I think that is what we are seeing after last week’s wobble."

Investors will keep a close watch on peace talks scheduled for Tuesday after Iran reiterated its determination to control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remain an important part of the inflation outlook, with the Federal Reserve expected to hike interest rates as soon as September.

“The decline in oil prices suggests concerns around energy-driven inflation are largely behind us, but if AI-driven inflation from memory costs starts to materialize over the next two to three months, that will be important,” said Paisley Nardini at Simplify Asset Management. “The other risk is whether cracks start to emerge in the consumer.”

Elsewhere, US technology shares are at risk of declines as overall investor exposure to the cohort is extremely elevated, according to Citigroup strategists. Following last week’s price hikes by Microsoft and Apple, rising costs and component shortages are said to be leading to China’s smartphone brands slashing targets, according to the Nikkei. 

“So far there are no signs of profit margins rising outside the tech sector. This is ultimately what we are waiting for, because the value of AI companies today rests entirely on the promise that margins in the S&P 493 will eventually climb,” noted Torsten Slok, chief economist of Apollo Global Management, referring to S&P 500 stocks beyond the Mag 7. 

The outlook for US earnings momentum, according to a recent Citigroup indicator, remains positive. AI continues to make an outsize contribution with 44 AI companies projected to contribute around 60% to overall S&P 500 earnings growth across calendar 2026, growing earnings at roughly 40.7% — triple the rate of the rest of the S&P 500, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Nathaniel T Welnhofer recently noted. 

In politics, Trump refused to commit to signing a major bipartisan housing bill, heightening uncertainty over the fate of the legislation. The Supreme Court has given Trump the power to fire the heads of independent agencies, overturning a 91-year-old precedent that said agencies must be independent of the president. Billionaire venture capitalist Marc Andreessen got a spot on a top Pentagon advisory board. 

European stocks rallied in early Tuesday trading, poised for their best quarter since late 2020 as investors bet on an improved outlook for economic growth, with the Stoxx 600 benchmark set for a jump of nearly 10% in the past three months.  Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Abivax shares jump as much as 32%, the most since January, after a clinical-trial update soothed some investors’ concerns about whether cancer could be a potential side effect of the French biotech’s most promising experimental drug
• Genmab shares rise as much as 7.9% after the Danish biotech company reported positive late-stage trial results for its Epkinly drug combination in patients with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma
• Siemens gains as much as 3.3%, the most in two weeks, as analysts updated their estimates ahead of the German industrial group’s third-quarter earnings, due on Aug. 6, expecting a strong print from the company
• ITM Power shares rise as much as 19% after Berenberg raised its price target on the green-hydrogen equipment maker by 82%, citing a “significant growth opportunity” in its partnership with Rheinmetall
• Truecaller gains as much as 13% as DNB Carnegie reiterated its buy recommendation and raised its price target on the caller-ID company, saying its upcoming second-quarter report “should mark another step in Truecaller’s recovery”
• Maersk shares gains as much as 5.4%, the most in almost three weeks, after the Danish shipping group upgraded its full-year outlook. While the news is a positive, its seen as broadly anticipated by analysts
• Sainsbury’s shares rise as much as 3.5%, the most in seven months, after the British retailer reported 1Q sales that were in line with consensus expectations, avoiding the underperformance of its peer Tesco
• Kering shares slid as much as 5.4% on Tuesday, as analysts caution the luxury goods maker’s 1H earnings report is likely to show the turnaround at key brand Gucci remains gradual
• Teleperformance shares fall as much as 13% after Concentrix, a US peer of the French call-center operator, slashed its full-year outlook, with forecasts for reported revenue and adjusted EPS missing expectations
• Logitech shares fall as much as 4.9% after Bank of America downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, seeing “demand destruction” for the Swiss firms’ computer peripherals due to price increases in consumer electronics

Asian stocks rose for a second day, driven by gains in technology shares as investors rebalanced portfolios at the end of the quarter. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.5%, bringing its gain for the three months through June to 21%, the strongest quarterly advance since 2009. Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei 225 marked its biggest ever quarterly advance, while South Korea’s Kospi index posted its best three-month period since 1998. In contrast, the MSCI China index has fallen for a third quarter. Taiwan’s Taiex index was among best performers in the region on Tuesday, with TSMC and MediaTek leading gains after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.8%. Stocks in Japan and South Korea rose. Offshore Chinese stocks continued to lose momentum, with the Hang Seng Index near a technical bear territory. MSCI China has tumbled about 15% this year, amid concerns over a sluggish economy, weak earnings from internet giants and investors’ preference for chipmakers elsewhere in Asia. 

The region’s stocks continue to outperform global peers this year, underpinned by the enthusiasm in artificial intelligence. Chipmakers and hardware suppliers across markets such as Taiwan, Japan and South Korea have rallied as investors chase earnings growth and visibility to the AI buildout, while markets like India and China continue to struggle due to the lack of AI exposure. 

“Asia is ending the first half with a selective risk-on tone: Taiwan and Japan are carrying the optimism built over the past few months, while weakness in China, Hong Kong and India shows investors are still cautious about markets without a clear AI, earnings or policy-support catalyst,” said Hebe Chen, a market analyst at Vantage Global Prime in Sydney.

In FX, the yen slid to its weakest level against the dollar since 1986, extending its recent losses to weaken beyond 162 against the dollar, a milestone that will generate unease in Japan and put traders on alert for authorities intervening in the market. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan will respond to developments in foreign exchange at any time.

In rates, treasuries are mixed ahead of a reading of US job openings for May. Bloomberg Economics expects the JOLTS report to show declining vacancies and a low quits rate. While hiring is supporting personal income growth, wage pressures are likely to remain rather muted. Yields were within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels, after plying small ranges during Asia session and London morning. European bonds provide support after German state inflation gauges slowed in June. US 10-year yields around 4.37% are marginally richer on the day, and curve spreads are likewise little changed; bunds and gilts trade broadly in line with Treasuries. WTI crude oil futures, little changed, also support Treasuries as they head for biggest quarterly decline since the pandemic. IG dollar issuance slate includes four names so far. Four Yankee banks led a $17.2b US investment-grade new issue docket Monday. Borrowers paid about 3bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.5 times oversubscribed. Treasury coupon issuance resumes next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year tenors. Focal points of US session include a swath of economic data headed by consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings. 

“The next validation point is now macro,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “JOLTS, consumer confidence, ISM and payrolls need to show enough labor resilience to keep the earnings momentum up, but not so much strength that the real-yield ceiling comes back immediately.”

In commodities, oil is headed for the biggest quarterly decline since the pandemic. Brent crude fell 0.3% to about $73 a barrel as flows through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated. Morgan Stanley analysts cut their oil price forecasts for the second time in about two weeks on a faster-than-expected supply rebound, while strong US supply and weak Chinese demand raise the risk of a glut.

Today's US economic data calendar includes April FHFA house price index and S&P Cotality CS home prices (9am), June MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers), June consumer confidence and May JOLTS job openings (10am) and June Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session. Chairman Warsh participates in an ECB panel event on Wednesday in Sintra

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• US and Iranian officials are set to hold peace negotiations in Doha today, but uncertainty hangs over the meeting. Donald Trump declined to say whether he expected a breakthrough and Iran has yet to confirm it’ll attend. Iran reiterated its determination to maintain control over maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. BBG
• The unexpectedly rapid retreat in energy prices in the past week has further taken pressure off European Central Bank policymakers ‌to lift interest rates next month but the case for a small hike later on remains firm, four sources told Reuters. RTRS
• China’s manufacturing activity expanded in June after remaining flat last month, thanks in part to resilient exports amid robust global demand for artificial-intelligence and green products. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index edged up to 50.3 this month from May’s 50.0. WSJ
• China has lifted some restrictions on oil-product exports in the past week, rolling back measures introduced to safeguard domestic supplies shortly after the war began in the Middle East. BBG
• Political pressure on the BoJ to slow its interest rate hikes is growing amid a push by Sanae Takaichi's government to restore dovish policymakers to the bank, a shake-up that could change its long-term policy direction. RTRS
• French and Italian inflation cooled more than expected in June, suggesting price pressures are beginning to soften amid falling energy costs due to easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. WSJ
• US retailers have brought forward orders from China by four-to-six weeks to secure their inventories for Black Friday and Christmas holiday sales before expected tariff hikes later this year, shipping executives said. RTRS
• Companies investing most heavily in AI are adding workers faster than their peers, according to new research that challenges predictions of broad AI-driven job losses. FT
• ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said knock-on effects from higher energy prices will take a while to show up and that policymakers won’t lock themselves into a rates path. BBG
• US House Speaker Johnson said no veto is expected for the housing legislation and that the housing bill will become law, while he noted that President Trump has yet to decide on signing the bipartisan housing package: POLITICO.

Iran News

• US President Trump's envoys Kushner and Witkoff are flying to Doha for talks, while Iran said the Doha mission is focused on ceasefire compliance and is not there for talks with the US, according to NYT.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said at a Congress briefing that there is a possibility the nuclear talks with Iran may fail, while he also stated that Iran has not yet received any funds under the MoU.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said "Understanding is a bilateral matter. If the American side adheres to the memorandum of understanding, we will also fulfil our obligations", while he said their approach to unreasonable boasting and unfounded threats is to rely on rationality and human dignity in decision-making and to defend themselves decisively and fearlessly when taking action.
• Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said if they do not reach an understanding with Oman on the routes and arrangements of the Strait of Hormuz, they will, in any case, implement Iran's new sovereignty and policy in the Strait of Hormuz, while he added that they do not guarantee the safety and security of ships passing through parallel routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran's acting Defence Minister al-Reza said we do not trust the enemy and our hands are on the trigger in the event of any ceasefire violations, will take appropriate and necessary action.
• The framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon has reportedly caused a rift in Iran-Lebanon relations, with Iranian FM Araghchi refusing to visit Lebanon, according to Kan's Kais citing a Lebanese newspaper.
• An explosion was reported in southern Lebanon, which was carried out by Israeli forces, while it was also reported that Israeli forces conducted a strike on town of Deir Sryan in southern Lebanon and that Israeli attacks on Gaza left 48 dead and wounded, according to Tasnim and Mehr News Agency.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed with choppy price action seen overnight heading into quarter-end, despite the gains in the US, where the DJIA notched a record close, and the Nasdaq outperformed amid strength in tech and communications. ASX 200 traded little changed amid mixed performances of its sectors and after the RBA minutes from the June meeting continued to affirm a hawkish stance. It stated that policy needed to remain restrictive and the RBA will do what is needed to achieve price stability, including raising rates if necessary. Nikkei 225 ultimately rallied, but initially swung between gains and losses, with the index fluctuating through the 70k level, amid a weaker currency, FX intervention risks, and disappointing Industrial Production. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged as a rebound in tech stocks was counterbalanced by losses in miners and energy majors, while they also failed to benefit from better-than-expected PMI data and another PBoC overnight repo operation.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama won't comment on specific effects levels, but said they will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed, while she added that action could include decisive action as agreed in the joint statement with the US.
• Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said he won't comment on FX levels, but added that they are always ready to take necessary action on FX.
• Decision on reducing Japan's consumption tax on food products has been postponed until July due to pushback from the opposition parties, according to TBS.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.8%) begin the last day of Q2 entirely in the green, with outperformance in the DAX 40 (+1.1%) and AEX (+0.7%). Many indices are set to have their biggest quarterly gain since the end of 2022, with the STOXX 600 just shy of 10% gains for Q2. Focusing on Germany's DAX, analysts see possible continued underperformance, with any flare-up in EU-China tensions posing a further headwind. Its auto sector has been particularly affected in recent months, with China playing a key role in that narrative.- European sectors highlight the positive bias. Basic Resources (+2.1%), Technology (+1.3%) and Industrial Goods & Services (+1.6%) are the outperformers, while Consumer Products & Services (-0.9%), Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-0.4%) and Telecoms (-0.3%) are the only sectors printing modest losses.

Top European News

• UK Government announced a GBP 15bln defence package.

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are lower against the USD to varying degrees. The CHF, EUR and JPY are all the laggards this morning, to the tune of c. 0.3%, whilst the Antipodeans are faring a little better vs peers.
• DXY is firmer this morning and trades at the upper end of a 101.12 to 101.42 range. No real driver this morning for the index, but comes amidst a tense geopolitical risk-tone and ahead of key US data. The slight strength today can also be explained as a bit of a bounce back, after recent USD strength has faded a touch off recent highs. The high from Monday (101.07) was breached this morning, whereby another bout of strength could see a test of Friday’s high (101.57) and Thursday’s best (101.74).
• EUR/USD is amongst the worst performers this morning, as markets digest the sheer amount of ECB speakers at Sintra. Overall, the bias has been hawkish; namely, President Lagarde and Chief Economist Lane have highlighted that the oil price curve remains elevated, and that could suggest higher costs for the economy. Nonetheless, policymakers have broadly reiterated data dependency and avoided any pre-commitment to July/September. On that front, Reuters sources suggested that given recent energy dynamics, September is now seen as more likely than July for another hike; the source clarified that a rate hike is not off the agenda. As it stands, money markets assign a 32% chance of a hike in July and a 70% chance of a move in September.
• On the data front, the EUR has had dovish German State CPI metrics to contend with. Broadly speaking they are indicative of a cooler Y/Y print, despite mainland consensus for the headline remaining at 2.6%.
• JPY is also amongst the laggards. Overnight, the pair jumped above the 162.00 mark, amidst commentary from Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara. He initially suggested that he would not comment on FX, which saw the pair breach 162.00. However, a few minutes later, he stated that they are always ready to take necessary action on Forex. The move largely unwound on that jawboning attempt. Thereafter, Finance Minister Katayama also commented. She warned that they will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed, while action could include decisive action as agreed in the joint statement with the US. USD/JPY currently holds within a 161.89-162.41 range.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed income benchmarks are firmer across the board, helped by softer energy prices, but also supported by cooler inflation prints in the EZ.
• Bund (+13 ticks) upside initially came following the French inflation data, in which HICP softened to 2%, below the expected 2.4% and from the prior 2.8%. This followed the Spanish print on Monday, which came in slightly hotter-than-expected, but saw relief after the core figure cooled. The German state CPIs can give further relief for the ECB, after prices broadly cooled in all states. This comes ahead of the nationwide figure later today; HICP is expected to hold at 2.7%.
• Many ECB policymakers were also on the wires this morning at the sidelines of Sintra. President Lagarde kicked off the Sintra conference on Monday. Even though her comments sounded slightly hawkish, it seemed to be an unwind of her dovish stance when she spoke last week in a way to keep all options on the table. Lane was the first GC member to speak today, in which he highlighted that the oil price curve is seen elevated in the coming years, which suggests higher economic costs.
• USTs (+2+ ticks) follow its German counterpart higher, albeit to a lesser extent, with focus this week being on comments by Fed Chair Warsh at Sintra on Wednesday and the US jobs report on Thursday.
• JGBs (-3 ticks) traded on the softer side in the Asia-Pac seen, however there was some relief following the 2-year JGB auction. The b/c was 4.82x, which was higher than the prior 3.70x and above the 12-month average of 3.74x. The strong auction was also backed by a small price tail. Despite the strong auction, investors remain concerned about further BoJ hikes, and perhaps more aggressively, to stabilise the Yen (USD/JPY recently topped 162.40).
• Japan sells JPY 2.15tln 2-year JGBs b/c 4.82 (prev. 3.70), average yield 1.407% (prev. 1.369%).

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are firmer, posting gains of around USD 0.10/bbl at highs of USD 70.88/bbl and USD 74.08/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively.
• In brief, we await any information relating to or stemming from the Doha talks. US envoys Kushner and Witkoff are travelling to Doha. However, Iran has made clear it will not be holding talks with the US “at any level” in the next few days, with the Doha gathering to only discuss ceasefire compliance. Albeit, sources via Pakistani journalist Mallick suggest that talks could occur via Pakistani/Qatari mediators.
• Spot gold firmer, but only marginally so. Overnight, pressure was seen alongside a jump in USD/JPY (see FX/morning JPY update for details), action that was exacerbated by a breach of the USD 4000/oz mark to the downside. Sending XAU to a USD 3942/oz base.
• In the first part of the European morning this unwound, with XAU climbing back above USD 4k/oz and hitting a USD 4037/oz peak in short order. There wasn’t a specific or fresh fundamental driver behind this, though the move did take place alongside a modest uptick in the fixed income space, marginal downside in energy and a moderation of the performance of both European and US equity futures.
• Base metals in focus after the EU increased tariffs on steel. The move will reduce the duty-free import level by an average of 47%. Following the move, an official cited by the FT outlined that the EU hopes to create a “steel club” with the US and others, in order to reduce trade barriers. Broadly, base metals are firmer, reflecting the risk tone and despite the firmer USD.
• US President Trump posted "Gasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY! They’re too high considering that Oil is now at $68 a Barrel, and heading south. The Retailers must quickly react to this statement, and do what they know is right".
• Shell (SHEL LN) expects LNG demand to increase by around 65% by 2050, largely driven by APAC nations.
• China is said to be easing some refinery fuel export restrictions as domestic supply is ample, according to reports.
• Morgan Stanley slashes its Q3 dated Brent forecast by USD 15 to USD 75/bbl as supply returns through Hormuz.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR posted that the US welcomes Switzerland’s progress in implementing elements of a historic Framework Agreement, while it was stated that they will continue to work towards the conclusion of an agreement on fair, balanced, and reciprocal trade that will further remove non-tariff barriers.
• China and the EU agreed to maintain global supply chain stability, continue consultations on trade, and solve some intellectual property issues, while China and the EU exchanged market access lists.
• EU declared new rule to protect EU steel. The EU's steel measure, which enters into application on 1 July 2026, reduces duty-free imports of 26 categories of steel products into the EU by an average of 47% as compared with the quotas under steel safeguard.
• White House announced temporary suspension of duties on fertilizer from Morocco, according to a Fact Sheet

Central Banks

• ECB's Lane said there has been some improvement in confidence, but not at pre-war levels. He added that the oil price curve sees elevated levels in the years coming, which suggest higher cost for the economy. On the ECB's rate path, he said July vs September is too narrow a debate but aiming to keep options open by not boxing themselves into a specific meeting.
• ECB's Nagel said it is too early make rate hike calls but rate policy has to stay vigilant as inflation may stay significantly above target.
• ECB's Wunsch said we might need another hike and would rather move quickly if the ECB needs another hike. A quick ECB move does not necessarily mean a July move.
• ECB's Sleijpen said while oil prices have come down, there is still a lot of uncertainty and reiterated the ECB's data-dependent approach.
• ECB sources said a rapid oil price retreat eases pressure on the ECB to hike in July and September is seen as more likely, although a June inflation surprise could reignite talk of a July hike, while sources added that a rate hike is not off the agenda even though it may be delayed, according to Reuters.
• BoJ's Sato said the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict is a welcoming move but uncertainty remains on outlook.
• RBA Minutes from the June meeting stated that policy needed to remain restrictive and it will do what is needed to achieve price stability, including raising rates if necessary. The Board saw merit in using the room created by earlier hikes to assess how the economy was faring and noted that leaving rates unchanged would best balance inflation and jobs objectives. Furthermore, it stated that the economy was operating with excess demand and broad-based price pressure, as well as noted that the Middle East conflict still posed material upside risks to inflation and downside risks to activity.

Geopolitics

• Russia reported it shot down 419 Ukrainian drones overnight.

US Event Calendar

• 9:00 am: Apr FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.15%, prior 0.1%
• 9:45 am: Jun MNI Chicago PMI, est. 55.1, prior 62.7
• 10:00 am: Jun Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 94.4, prior 93.1
• 10:00 am: May JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7295.5k, prior 7618k

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we hit the last day of the first half of the year, markets in Asia are largely continuing trends seen in the year and quarter to date. The KOSPI (+3.23%) is leading gains and remains on track for an impressive quarterly rise of over 65% and exceeding 105% YTD. Japan’s Nikkei (+1.70%) is also notably higher, now more than 37% higher for the quarter. Elsewhere the CSI (+1.12%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.20%) are also up but the Hang Seng (-1.19%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.08%) are lower. Minutes from the RBA’s June meeting indicated that policymakers remain cautious about inflation and will continue to evaluate incoming data before making policy adjustments. S&P (+0.14%) and Nasdaq (+0.44%) futures are higher as I type.  

In China, manufacturing activity in June slightly exceeded forecasts, supported by strong export demand and continued investment in artificial intelligence. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, above expectations of 50.1, and up from 50.0 in May. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI improved to 50.2, surpassing the 49.9 forecast and edging up from 50.1 previously, signaling modest improvement in services activity despite overall subdued demand.

The Japanese yen has weakened further overnight even with officials commenting that intervention could happen at any time. Over the last 24 hours it's fallen to its lowest level against the US dollar since 1986, closing at 161.94 last night and now trading at 162.40 this morning. So historic times for Japan.  

Ahead of all this, markets saw a decent risk-on move yesterday, as a recovery in tech stocks helped to lift US equities more broadly. So the Magnificent 7 (+2.58%) bounced back, which meant the S&P 500 (+1.18%) finally ended a run of 5 consecutive declines. Indeed, with just one day of Q2 left, the S&P is on the verge of its best quarterly performance in six years, back when the index was bouncing back sharply from the pandemic slump. Those moves yesterday included a big advance for Tesla (+8.46%), Alphabet (+4.79%) and Amazon (+3.20%). And the Philly semiconductor index (+3.83%) rebounded after posting its worst week since the post-Liberation Day sell-off last April. It was a more mixed day for the rest of the US stock market, but both the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.18%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.01%) still inched up to new record highs. And over in Europe, equities were basically flat, with the STOXX 600 up +0.04%. European futures are around +0.6% higher this morning.  

Perhaps the biggest story yesterday was news on Fed independence, as the US Supreme Court voted 5-4 that Fed Governor Lisa Cook could remain in post while fighting Trump’s attempt to remove her over allegations of mortgage fraud, ruling that the President could not remove her without proof of wrongdoing. It’s worth noting that’s not the end of the story, as they didn’t rule on whether Trump could fire Cook if the allegations were found to be true, but it means she can stay in post for now.

On the broader legal backdrop, the Court also ruled separately that the President can remove senior officials at other independent agencies without needing to meet the longstanding “for cause” standard, effectively overturning a 91-year precedent. In practical terms, that tilts the balance of power back towards the executive, giving the White House greater scope to replace officials across much of the regulatory apparatus. The carve out for the Fed therefore looks quite deliberate, reinforcing its unique independent status, but it also raises the stakes around how durable that distinction proves over time. If anything, it points to a more uncertain institutional backdrop, where independence can no longer be taken as a given across the wider policy framework—even if the Fed remains insulated for now.  

Elsewhere, oil prices picked back up yesterday as they reacted to the weekend strikes that took place between the US and Iran, even if the weekend ended in a better place than it started with a halt to tit-for-tat strikes agreed by both sides late on Sunday night. So Brent crude (+1.61%) rose from its 4-month low on Friday, closing at $73.15/bbl, with WTI (+2.20%) back up to $70.75/bbl. That oil move also came as Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said that Tehran will control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with or without Oman. Otherwise, further meetings are set to take place today, with Trump posting that Iran had requested a meeting that would take place in Doha. And separately, Axios reported that the US’ Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would be travelling to Doha to meet today with the Qatari PM and other officials. They also reported that the US and Iranian technical teams would meet separately with the Qatari and Pakistani mediators.
That uptick in oil prices meant inflation concerns crept back in a bit yesterday on both sides of the Atlantic. So the US 1yr inflation swap (+4.5bps) was back up to 2.14%, from a 20-month low on Friday. And in turn, investors priced in a more hawkish path for the Fed, with the amount of hikes priced by the December meeting up +1.4bps on the day to 33bps. So that led to another rise in Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield (+1.4bps) up to 4.11%, whilst the 10yr yield (+0.5bps) moved up to 4.38%.  

Meanwhile in the Euro Area, there was a similar pickup in bond yields across the continent. That was partly because of the oil move, but we also started to get the flash CPI prints for June, with Spain’s release surprising on the upside yesterday. It showed CPI unexpectedly remaining +3.6% (vs. +3.4% expected), which added to concerns that the other prints might come in on the stronger side too, and that the ECB would need to keep hiking rates. Indeed, market pricing moved in a slightly hawkish direction, with 27bps of hikes now priced by the December meeting, up +2.6bps on the day. And in turn, yields on 2yr bunds (+2.1bps) moved higher, while those across 10yr bunds (+0.7bps), OATs (+0.5bps) and BTPs (-0.4bps) were more stable.   

Here in the UK, gilts were a relative outperformer, with the 10yr yield falling -1.5bps to 4.72%. That came as the favourite to be next PM, Andy Burnham, delivered a speech outlining some of his plans, which included a commitment to stick to the current fiscal rules. So that reassured investors who were concerned about looser fiscal policy, and there was also some underwhelming UK data as well. For instance, mortgage approvals for May fell more than expected to 56.2k (vs. 63.0k expected), which is their lowest since December 2023.  

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the flash June CPI prints from Germany, France, and Italy, along with German unemployment for June. Meanwhile, US releases include the JOLTS report for May, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for June, and the FHFA’s house price index for April. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Vujcic, Elderson, Schnabel, Cipollone and Lane, along with the BoE’s Breeden. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Nike.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 08:38

Manhunt After Monaco Bombing Severely Wounds Ukrainian Oligarch In 'Attempted Assassination'

Monaco has been shaken by an apparent assassination attempt on a Ukrainian-born business tycoon by parcel bomb on Monday - something unprecedented in the normally ultra-safe principality.

Authorities have described that a suspect, who is now on the run, had left a mail package in the lobby of a residential building that detonated around 9pm on Monday, unleashing what police called a "powerful explosion".

via EPA

The victims have since been identified as Vadym Iermolaiev, his wife and their 13-year-old child. They all survived the bombing, with Iermolaiev and his wife having sustained serious injuries and are being treated in the hospital. Both are in critical condition with reports saying the woman sustained the most severe wounds.

The entrance to their luxury apartment building was shown seriously damaged, with emerging CCTV footage soon after showing a suspect fleeing toward the French border donned in a dark shirt and bucket hat.

Iermolaiev and his wife had been taken to hospital with serious injuries, while their child was also wounded, French authorities said.

Monaco's Minister of State Christophe Mirmand told AFP that the bomb contained bolts and pellets, clearly pointing to a device made for maximum killing of the target. He confirmed the government is not yet investigating it as a terror attack, but attempted murder or a targeted killing.

Mirmand told a French broadcaster on Tuesday the suspect "appears to have left for France". The man was observed fleeing towards the French commune of Beausoleil on foot, fleeing the scene of the crime.

🇲🇨 A bomb packed with bolts and metal shot tore through the lobby of a luxury building in Monaco tonight, injuring sanctioned Ukrainian oligarch Vadym Yermolaiev and his family.

A man was caught on CCTV dropping a backpack at the entrance around 9 PM before fleeing toward the… pic.twitter.com/pYgD8AHVOZ

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) June 29, 2026

The bombing is being reported as a first in all of Monaco history, and over 100 police and security personnel descended on the scene. BBC reports:

Harri Richie, who lives around 100m away from the targeted building, told the BBC she heard an "unbelievably loud explosion" at about 21:00 local time from the underground car park she was in.

She then went up to her 11th floor apartment, where she said she saw emergency services "dragging two people out [from the building] who looked badly injured".

Emergency services arrived around five minutes after the explosion, she said, adding that there was a helicopter overhead throughout Monday night. "This is the first time in history, to my knowledge, that such an act has taken place in the principality," Mirmand, the head of Monaco's government, said.

Monaco's Prince Albert II described the incident as a "heinous crime" and "a shock to the entire Monaco community".

As for who is Vadym Iermolaiev and who might be behind the targeted attack, the 58-year-old property tycoon is from Dnipro, Ukraine, and back in 2019 - long before the current conflict escalated - he quietly severed ties with his homeland, renouncing his Ukrainian citizenship in exchange for a Cypriot passport.

Amid the ongoing war, Iermolaiev has maintained massive interests in the wine and spirits industry in Russian-controlled Crimea, resulting in him being targeted for heavy sanctions from the Zelensky government by 2023.

Because he was already seen as an 'enemy' of the Ukraine government, most online commentators are pointing the Kyiv's intelligence services as the likely culprit:

Terrorist attack in Monaco as Ukrainian oligarch, sanctioned by Zelensky, is injured by bomb. Will this remain an unresolved mystery like Nord Stream and the Epstein files? pic.twitter.com/GO31DfuLqi

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) June 30, 2026

Forbes ranked Yermolaiev as the 39th richest Ukrainian in 2020, clocking his net worth at $230 million (£173.8 million). Many current international reports are referencing him as a billionaire, with some pundits suggesting he's involved in array of shady business dealings in eastern Europe.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 08:25

Maersk Lifts Outlook As Wall Street Questions Whether Freight Tailwinds Can Last

A.P. Moller-Maersk shares rose in Copenhagen trading after the world's second-largest container carrier surprised analysts by raising its full-year profit outlook, citing stronger-than-expected containerized demand, particularly across Asia. The upbeat guidance suggests the global container market has remained resilient despite earlier Hormuz-related chokepoint disruptions, with global shipping demand holding.

The Danish shipping and logistics giant now expects global container volumes to grow about 4% this year, up from its prior forecast of 2% to 4%. It also lifted guidance for EBITDA, EBIT, and free cash flow, with the new ranges coming in well above analyst expectations, as tracked by Bloomberg.

Here's a snapshot of the full-year guidance upgrade (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees underlying Ebitda $8 billion to $10 billion, saw $4.5 billion to $7 billion, estimate $7.33 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Sees underlying Ebit $2 billion to $4 billion, saw loss $1.5 billion to $1 billion, estimate $1.42 billion

Maersk's guidance matters because container shipping offers one of the clearest real-time reads on global demand for goods.

The stronger outlook reflects a recent surge in spot freight rates, resilient export volumes in Asian markets, and tighter effective capacity due to ongoing route disruptions. The key question for investors now is whether that momentum is strong enough to push Maersk shares back toward, or through, their 2021 highs.

Wolfe Research analyst Jacob Lacks noted:

Maersk is clearly benefitting from the recent surge in spot rates, and a key question in our minds for the stock is how long the current environment lasts. We continue to believe the recent tightness reflects at least some degree of a pull-forward and an early peak season. This is consistent with ocean freight futures which continue to show a meaningful normalization lower in ocean rates following July.

Deutsche Bank analyst Harishankar Ramamoorthy noted:

..but difficult to see rates momentum sustain over the medium-term.

We have revised our forecasts for 2026 to reflect the guidance above, but make little changes to estimates beyond 2026 (see Figure 2). Freight rates have been volatile in the past several months, given many "black swan" events, and it is difficult to argue that the current momentum in spot rates should continue structurally into the medium term. Nevertheless, as we noted in our monthly Transportation Leading Indicators note yesterday, markets are pricing in an easing in freight rates for Maersk driven by the peace deal in the Middle East (latest SCFI is still c. 140% higher than in end Feb); but they seem to be ignoring that bunker 380 has dropped c. 37% from its peak in March, now trading only 7% higher than at the end of Feb.

We have been arguing that the direction of travel for spot freight rates relative to bunker costs has been favourable for Maersk (see Figure 1), and it is indeed providing some near-term tail risk. Given the swing in EBITDA, FCF, and consequently net debt, while we haven't changed our valuation methodology or the multiples used, our price target stands revised from DKK 12,970 to DKK 14,030. Despite the near-term tailwinds to spot rates, the situation on overcapacity in the industry warrants caution over the medium term; retain HOLD.

Bernstein analyst Alex Irving noted:

This increase follows strong demand leading to strong freight rates. We see the increase in spot rates YTD as having two components. The initial rise in spot rates following the outbreak of war in the Middle East was likely largely, if not entirely, due to additional surcharges for higher fuel costs. However, rates continued to rise even as fuel prices started to decline as Q2 went on, reflecting strength in demand. What is not yet clear to us is how much is a pull-forward of demand, ahead of further surcharges and the risk of higher tariffs in Q3, vs genuinely greater demand. Maersk has increased its volume outlook for total container trade for the year from a range of 2-4% growth, to 4% growth. By implication, the answer is some of both.

The underlying threat to industry profitability of oversupply has not gone away, and in recent days we have seen reports of further mega orders (MSC just yesterday reported to be ordering up to 20 vessels of 20,000 TEU each, for delivery from 2029). Near term, the rate environment continues to support very strong earnings at container lines.

Last week, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told Bloomberg: "It has been strong throughout the first half of the year, despite the war and the disruption to energy markets," adding, "For us, the expectation is that this in all likelihood, right now looks like it's set to continue into the rest of the

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 07:45

Can We Have Our Humans Back? Companies Rethink AI

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times,

The artificial intelligence revolution may not be eliminating human jobs as quickly as some feared. Rising computing costs, operational headaches, and inconsistent results are prompting some companies to change course and bring workers back.

It’s a hard lesson learned in the throes of the early AI boom, in which bold claims of big savings have enticed many businesses to downsize their staff.

Many industry professionals now say that roles requiring sound judgment, creativity, customer interaction, and quality control need to keep humans in the driver’s seat.

A Careerminds survey of 600 human resources professionals who'd made layoffs in the previous 12 months revealed that nine out of 10 companies would rethink their AI-related terminations.

Three out of four human resources professionals who took the survey confirmed that their organization sacked employees because of technological advancements that replaced roles and responsibilities.

But only 8.4 percent of the survey pool said AI delivered the promised results.

“Over the past 12 months, we have seen a noticeable uptick in companies coming to us after pausing or scaling back AI tool rollouts,” James Calloway, chief operating officer at Stealth Agents, told The Epoch Times.

Calloway’s company provides executive-level virtual assistants, an area where the cost difference between human workers and AI agents is stark.

“One e-commerce client had budgeted for an AI customer service implementation and found the licensing, integration, and ongoing prompt engineering costs were two to three times their original estimate,” he said.

“They hired two of our [human virtual assistants] instead and cut their per-ticket resolution cost by nearly 40 [percent].

“Human employees remain more cost-effective in client-facing communications that require empathy and judgment, tasks that require reading between the lines of what a customer actually needs, work involving proprietary context that cannot safely be fed into third-party AI systems, and any workflow where a mistake has real reputational or legal consequences.”

Big tech companies have also found this to be true. In April, Bryan Catanzaro, vice president of applied deep learning research at Nvidia, told Axios, “For my team, the cost of compute is far beyond the costs of the employees.”

Nickle LaMoreaux, senior vice president and chief human resources officer at IBM, argued that augmenting roles with AI is more essential to corporate growth than replacing human talent entirely, during a Wall Street Journal Leadership Institute summit in March.

LaMoreaux’s comments followed just weeks after IBM announced plans to triple its entry-level hires. When asked why so many companies aren’t taking a similar approach, he said, “It’s because they’re in this productivity mindset versus the growth mindset.”

A BCG analysis predicted that 50 percent to 55 percent of all jobs in the United States will be “reshaped” by AI within the next couple of years.

Visitors crowd an IBM exhibition stand at the 2026 Hannover Messe industrial trade fair in Hanover, Germany, on April 20, 2026. This year's trade fair included an increased emphasis on industrial AI. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Unforeseen Expenses

Jon Hill, CEO of The Energists, said there’s a misconception that generative AI is just “software with a subscription fee.” He has personally witnessed how AI buyer’s remorse can lead to staff rehires.

“Many of our clients aggressively pursued generative AI initiatives, thinking they would reduce labor costs,” Hill told The Epoch Times, “but we’re increasingly seeing those clients circling back to human employees after discovering the real-world costs of AI systems.”

Hill gave the example of one company that he worked with that planned to automate some of its compliance reporting and technical support. The company found that while the projected savings initially looked promising, those gains evaporated when taking into account the costs of cybersecurity, human oversight, and application programming interface usage.

The client chose to pause AI deployment because “human staff provided more predictable output at a lower long-term cost,” he said.

Hill said there are multiple costs that organizations can overlook. Cloud compute costs alone can be “a six- to seven-figure annual expense,” depending on usage, Hill said.

People visit an AI data center at SK Networks during the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain, on March 3, 2025. A February survey of human resources professionals revealed that nine out of 10 companies would rethink AI-related terminations. Manaure Quinter/AFP via Getty Images

Matt Baharav, CEO of MKB Media Solutions, told The Epoch Times that the AI content assistant his team implemented ended up being both costly and inefficient.

“Last quarter, we decided to stop utilizing an [AI] automated content assistant for our outreach pitches. We realized the software was ineffective,” Baharav told The Epoch Times.

“The company we hired and paid thousands per month charged us licensing costs, as well as had my team spend countless hours rewriting generic paragraphs created by their tool.”

In this photo illustration, a screen shows the Deepseek app in Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 31, 2026. After the rapid rise of AI implementation in industrial settings, a growing number of businesses are bringing human workers back to the workplace. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

Baharav said he learned that “a good writer is less expensive than an expensive automated content assistant” when it comes to complex communications.

“We eliminated the software altogether and transferred the funds back into hiring competent, sharp writers,” he said.

Tech spending tracker Mavvrik, in its 2025 State of AI Cost Management report, observed that 80 percent to 85 percent of companies missed their AI infrastructure forecasts by more than 25 percent, while 84 percent reported “significant gross margin erosion” because of miscalculated AI costs.

The offices of Amazon Germany's new headquarters in Munich are pictured on April 16, 2026. The retail giant laid off 16,000 workers in January in its latest round of cuts, part of a multi-year wave of layoffs driven in part by the company's adoption of artificial intelligence. AFP via Getty Images

Luxury Component

Marcus Mossberger, chief market strategy officer at workforce intelligence platform LYTIQS, said he believes that AI could have its own niche within the workforce, so long as it’s not a situation that would be better served by human judgment.

“HR is a great example where AI can be used to field transaction questions like ‘what is the deductible on my health insurance plan,’ but not for more intimate requests, like ‘what should I do about a co-worker who is making me uncomfortable?’” Mossberger said.

He said some companies are likely to “over-rotate” toward AI and learn a hard lesson, but he thinks that there could be bigger consequences for companies than just having to hire new talent.

“I actually believe the biggest hidden ‘expense’ associated with implementing generative AI has been the disruption of trust between employee and employer. And let’s face it, this wasn’t exactly an area of strength to begin with,” Mossberger said.

A Microsoft AI booth is shown during the AI+Expo Special Competitive Studies Project in Washington on June 2, 2025. Many companies are feeling buyer's remorse, hiring industry insiders say, as they find that the cost of AI implementation is higher than anticipated. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

He pointed out that hard-working Americans are watching employers invest billions in AI infrastructure while laying off their co-workers and being asked to help train their own AI replacement.

“If you think these same individuals are giving you discretionary effort and taking innovative risks to improve your organization, you are badly mistaken,” Mossberger said.

He predicts that this will necessitate a need for companies to rebuild trust in their brand while training new hires. Mossberger said he thinks that many of the people laid off during the early days of the AI gold rush may refuse to come back.

The practice of a worker returning to the same company that initially laid them off has come to be known as a “boomerang employee.”

For Baharav, the decision to prioritize human talent has definitely paid off. “To date, we have actually ended up saving money,” he said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 07:20

Israeli Defense Chief Lashes Out At Trump Policy For Preventing Destruction Of Hezbollah

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz in a talk before reporters Monday ripped the Trump administration, blaming the US for giving into Iran's demands that a peace framework incorporate the Lebanon front.

Trump "exerted pressure" on Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu within several telephone calls "in the run-up to the signing of the memorandum of understanding" - and ultimately prevented Israel from disarming and destroying Hezbollah, he asserted.

Katz expressed "regret" at the US linking up Iran and Lebanon, saying: "The connection between the Iran and Lebanon fronts is an American interest; if there had been no connection between the fronts, Hezbollah would have collapsed." 

Israeli Defense Ministry

Katz suggested the Israeli army was then forced to go to a "Plan B," which he outlined as "pushing deeper into the 'Yellow Line' zone in southern Lebanon" - which extends nearly 10 kilometers into Lebanon, and mainly constitutes what the IDF currently occupies.

The Times of Israel bluntly put it as follows:

Briefing reporters, Katz claimed that had it not been for American pressure on Israel, the IDF would have caused Hezbollah's collapse in Lebanon. He said the IDF had planned a “massive” aerial campaign that, he claimed, “would have dismantled Hezbollah,” and that the terror group was “begging the Iranians to save it.”

The defense minister blamed US President Donald Trump’s linking of the US-Iran talks with Lebanon for preventing Israel from doing so. According to Katz, when Trump “linked Iran and Lebanon,” Israel had to stop “bringing down buildings in Beirut,” but could carry out “surgical strikes” on Hezbollah in the Lebanese capital.

Katz emphasized, "I’m sorry about that linkage, but it was an American interest. They very much wanted to advance the possibility of negotiations with Iran."

He also noted of recently strained US-Israeli relations, "when you enter into a partnership, it has advantages, but it also comes with certain constraints."

"People should not hold their breath wondering where the next place will be from which Israel will withdraw in Lebanon, because it will not happen until Hezbollah is disarmed. We have no territorial ambitions in Lebanon, but until Hezbollah is disarmed, we will not withdraw a millimeter," Katz added.

He also said, "When it comes to defending ourselves, there are no compromises, not in Lebanon and not in Iran."

The defense chief then made clear that Israel is preparing to go it alone regarding Iran if need be:

"If Iran attacks, that is the third Iran war. The situation is very clear. There is no reality in which Israel will allow missile fire at its territory without responding with force. It could happen within two days. My directive to the IDF is to prepare for a blue-and-white operation in Iran."

🚨Three remarkable comments from Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz today:

On the reported plan to topple the Iranian regime, originally prepared under former Mossad chief David Barnea:

"There were external actors who were supposed to join, but they did not allow it to…

— גיא עזריאל Guy Azriel (@GuyAz) June 29, 2026

The "blue-and-white" label is apparent reference to taking the war to Iran, but without external Washington help. However, it's also clear that the Iranians have in the past been able to inflict serious damage on Israel, even when it did have active and significant US military support.

The defense minister also again admitted that Israeli intelligence has had assets inside Iran all along, but that these ground elements were prevented from orchestrating full regime change in the Islamic Republic.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 06:55

German Feminist Activist Calls For White People To Stop Having Children And Accept Refugees

Via Remix News,

Germany’s Verena Brunschweiger, a self-described “radical feminist,” is promoting the slogan: “My lineage ends with me.” She says she hopes to encourage people, especially White people, to stop having children.

She claims that Western pro-natalists only want to “control women, and keep refugees out.”

The article on her views, from Australian broadcaster news.com.au, is entitled: “‘My bloodline ends with me’: Why feminist ‘childfree icon’ wants fewer ‘white babies’ and more refugees”

The report quoted her as saying: “We have a proud slogan, ‘My bloodline ends with me.’ I think this is a responsible choice.”

Brunschweiger said that Europeans are to blame for the poor quality of life in Africa, and she would invite the entire world to Europe.

🇩🇪German feminist Verena Brunschweiger promotes the slogan “My lineage ends with me.”

She calls for people, especially White people, to stop having children.

She claims that Western pro-natalists only want to “control women, and keep refugees out."

Brunschweiger said that… pic.twitter.com/8DGwDdQkQU

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 27, 2026

“So I would take all immigrants and refugees in because we ruined the world, so to speak.”

“We produce the climate change which makes life in Africa, for instance, miserable and horrible. So of course, why not invite [them] if they want to come?”

She said that in her home country, “populist nonsense” is being promoted by the German party Alternative for Germany (AfD).

In einem neuen Interview verkündet die kinderlose Verena Brunschweiger stolz, dass ihre Blutlinie mit ihr endet und das sei die verantwortungsvolle Entscheidung. Sie fordert weniger ‚weiße Babys‘ im Westen und attackiert Elon Musk sowie alle, die mehr Nachwuchs wollen, um die… pic.twitter.com/5Y7q3rpb2g

— Lexa 🇩🇪 (@rebew_lexa) June 29, 2026

She claimed the party wants Germans to have more babies so “they can say, ‘Oh, I’m sorry, dear refugees, go back and drown or die or starve or whatever, because we have so many of our own people and we have to care for them first.”

“They say we need our own kids because German white kids are better than other kids who immigrate into the country,” she added.

“All the white people go, ‘Wouldn’t it be so horrible if we lost the white people, the white majority?’ They always want white women to have more babies to in order to be able to say, ‘Oh, stay the way we are, we are already full,'” she added.

She says Western countries have a moral duty to accept refugees.

“Because we produce all the climate change and all those things which make them leave [their] country,” she said.

Despite immigrants producing children at a much higher rate than White people, especially African migrants, she dismisses any argument against restricting immigration.

She said that she “of course” targets Whites specifically to stop having children.

“My focus, and that’s what drives the AfD nuts, is we have to cut back our numbers,” she said.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 06:30