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Zero Rss

25 Years Later, Air Travel Still Bears The Imprint Of 9/11

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
25 Years Later, Air Travel Still Bears The Imprint Of 9/11

Authored by Jeremy Lott via The Epoch Times,

The terror attacks 25 years ago this week had enduring costs for America's commercial aviation sector.

Today's domestic fliers are on balance worse off for it, with higher costs, fewer choices, and more delays.

That's because, on Sept. 11, 2001, men who were part of the al Qaeda Islamist terror network bought tickets and boarded four passenger planes out of Boston, northern Virginia, and Newark, New Jersey.

Once airborne, the 19 terrorists hijacked those planes and managed to fly two of them into the World Trade Center towers and one into the Pentagon.

The remaining plane, United Airlines Flight 93 from Newark to San Francisco, was brought down by a revolt of passengers and crew who had pieced together what was happening with the other planes.

The Boeing 757 crashed into a field in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, instead of its intended target, which the National Park Service identified as the U.S. Capitol.

At the World Trade Center, more than 2,700 people died that day.

When Flight 93 went down in Pennsylvania, all 44 people, including seven crew members and 33 passengers, including the four hijackers, died on impact.

At the Pentagon, where American Airlines Flight 77 from Washington Dulles Airport to Los Angeles crashed, 189 people died, including 125 people in the building, six airline crew members, 53 passengers, plus the five hijackers.

Airlines in the Red

For the airlines, the financial impact was awful and bordered on existential.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) grounded all flights for several days. Once the planes were cleared for takeoff, many would-be passengers were jittery about being airborne. After all, they had just watched domestic planes slam into skyscrapers on their television sets, over and over.

These planes had long been seen as mechanical marvels that shortened long trips and brought the world closer together. The al Qaeda hijackings turned them instead into visible instruments of previously unimaginable destruction on U.S. soil.

Looking back at that day, the International Air Transport Association did not sugarcoat it.

"On September 11, 2001, the world changed forever," Willie Walsh, former director general of the air travel trade group, said in a fact sheet for the 20th anniversary of the day.

"Those of us old enough to understand what was happening at the time still remember where we were when we heard the horrific news. Indeed, for many, it probably still feels like yesterday."

The attacks were not only "assaults on the United States of America," as far as the world of aviation was concerned. Those weaponized planes were also aimed straight at the "global air transportation system - a facilitator of peace and freedom," he said.

Financial fallout from the attacks was swift and severe. Revenues and profits nosedived.

U.S. passenger airlines had posted profits of $2.2 billion in 2000. They lost $8 billion in 2001, and revenues did not climb back to 2000 levels until 2004.

Those losses contributed to the bankruptcies of several air carriers, most notably US Airways and United Airlines in 2002. United stayed aloft, but US Airways eventually was absorbed by American Airlines.

Airport Security Costs

An act of Congress created the Transportation Security Administration, popularly known as the TSA, in November 2001 to help address security concerns. The TSA took over screening at most airports.

The Aviation and Transportation Security Act also greatly expanded a previously existing air marshals program to put many more armed, hidden officers on flights to thwart future would-be hijackers.

Costs for U.S. fliers grew higher, in part to pay for the new, slower airport security. U.S. taxpayers are paying for it as well. The amount spent on the TSA has varied from year to year. At present, the yearly price tag is in the $11 billion range.

Gary Leff, proprietor of the popular View from the Wing website, is not happy about that.

"It's not clear what we've gotten spending over $10 billion annually," he told The Epoch Times.

TSA oversaw the formalization of what some critics have called security theater, with belts and shoes off, liquids limited in size, passengers subjected to various scanning devices, and lots and lots of plastic tubs.

Bill McGee, a senior fellow for aviation at the American Economic Liberties Project, says he still believes that TSA security beats the alternative.

"It's really easy to beat up on the TSA, and I've done it quite often myself. In fact, there's an entire chapter on TSA criticism in my book 'Attention All Passengers,'" he told The Epoch Times.

At the same time, he said, it's important to remember "what airline and airport security was like prior to 9/11," when "security was the responsibility of the airlines, and it was often non-existent."

"I think we can all agree that the airlines' efforts in outsourcing airport security on 9/11 was a spectacular failure," McGee said, adding that TSA's existence indicates "that aviation security is taken seriously enough that it's the responsibility of the federal government."

He said he would not want to have such a "vital function that is so intrinsic to national security be outsourced to the lowest bidders again."

Where TSA Can Improve

Yet there are downsides to having the TSA as it is currently organized. Instead of scrapping the agency, however, McGee suggested, "Let's think instead about how Congress can fix the TSA for all of us."

The federal government funds the TSA. When government shutdowns happen, as they do periodically, this creates problems for airport screening. TSA still functions during government shutdowns but not well.

Agents go unpaid, sometimes for long stretches. They have a statutory guarantee of back pay once the government is funded again. Yet overtime is discouraged, and absenteeism rises. This leads to longer screening times and missed flights.

That is what happened during the 76-day partial government shutdown of agencies under the Department of Homeland Security earlier this year.

Ha Nguyen McNeill, acting TSA administrator, testified in late March that the "cost of coming to work [was] becoming more untenable for the workforce." The agency's daily call-out rates had increased from 4 percent to 11 percent and at some airports were greater than 50 percent.

This reduced screening capacity was hiking wait times to "over four and a half hours at certain airports, raising major security risks and missed flights for passengers," McNeill said in prepared remarks.

In contrast, a handful of airports participate in the Screening Partnership Program. This allows private contractors to do the screening, under TSA regulations and nominal supervision, with a different line of funding.

The largest airport in the program is San Francisco International Airport (SFO). At roughly the same time that McNeill was sounding the alarm before Congress, the airport was reassuring fliers that they could enjoy their spring break travels.

"While we've seen and heard about the long security checkpoint lines over the last few weeks at major airports around the country, SFO is NOT experiencing this issue," the airport announced on social media.

During the partial government shutdown, the airport's screener-contractors were "being paid without interruption," and screening was "operating as usual."

The San Francisco airport regularly posts its security checkpoint wait times. For Sept. 6, waits ran between one and nine minutes for general boarding and between zero and four minutes for fliers with TSA PreCheck authorization.

The San Francisco example illustrates the gap between what TSA might be and what it actually is, Leff said. "Instead of regulating security provided by others," he said, the screening agency "largely regulates itself, which has led to a lack of accountability."

For instance, border agencies frequently operate what are called red teams, whose job it is to try to get contraband through a checkpoint.

TSA ran red teams for years. They found that TSA screeners are very bad at catching items that have been flagged as dangerous.

"After a series of embarrassing disclosures about their failure rates detecting dangerous items at checkpoints [with] failure rates over 90 percent a decade ago, they simply stopped releasing information on their effectiveness publicly," Leff said.

As the 25th anniversary of Sept. 11 approaches, Leff said that the response to the attacks has had bad effects for both fliers and would-be fliers.

"For travel, it's meant that trips take longer. That means fewer trips by air than there'd otherwise be. It likely means more car trips, which are far less safe, and more loss of life as a result. But we never examine second- and third-order effects," he said.

Last year, 64 people on commercial airlines died in the United States. All of the deaths came when an Army Black Hawk helicopter collided with a small commuter plane over the Potomac River near Reagan National Airport on Jan. 29. Three people in the helicopter also died.

Over that same period, 36,640 traffic fatalities were reported on American roads.

Progress and Innovation

Former International Air Transport Association boss Walsh saw one bright spot at American airports in the first 20 years following Sept. 11.

He thought that TSA PreCheck, where frequent fliers trade more information about themselves and a small fee for expedited screening, was worth celebrating.

Walsh acknowledged that "extraordinary measures" were probably necessary to get things flying again, post Sept. 11, but he made the case that the need for many of these measures had long-since passed.

Future American airport security could "move beyond the one-size-fits-all, rules-based model that still ... governs passenger security screening" and establish "firm deadlines" to sunset unnecessarily stringent rules, he said. These changes would make sure that "what we are doing is relevant."

James Fallows is a journalist, a small craft pilot and the author of several books, including a few on aviation.

"Free Flight: From Airline Hell to a New Age of Travel," was the original title of one of those books, published only months before Sept. 11, 2001.

Fallows saw the beginnings of something new taking shape. He observed smaller craft playing a bigger role in transportation and thought that would grow into a somewhat decentralized air-taxi system in the future.

The Epoch Times asked him about how the terror attacks had affected that development, and how he sized up its prospects today.

"So much has changed in the 25 years since the 9/11 attacks," Fallows said. For several years, "dramatically tightened security rules limited private air travel of all sorts."

However, that was not the whole story.

"The increasing congestion of airlines, and the ongoing progress in aircraft and engine design, has led to steady growth in private jet travel - for those who can afford it."

The next step is to bring that experience to more people. Many companies are working to create an "air taxi model" that people of modest means can afford to hail, Fallows said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 22:35
Tyler Durden

Diesel Crunch Set To Worsen As Refining Capacity Falls Short, Industry Warns

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Diesel Crunch Set To Worsen As Refining Capacity Falls Short, Industry Warns

The global diesel market - already trading at record prices - is set to further tighten in the coming months and keep fuel prices high, raising the prices of all goods and threatening the inflation targets of the central banks.

Industry officials, who gathered at the APPEC petroleum conference in Singapore this week, warned that the market has not seen the worst of the diesel crisis yet. Analysts say the real stress in oil markets is in the diesel market right now, OilPrice reported.

Global fuel markets are very tight and inflexible, despite the higher crude oil flows out of the Persian Gulf in recent weeks, Russell Hardy, chief executive of the world's biggest independent oil trader, Vitol Group, said on Tuesday.

“We're still not running enough refining capacity to prevent those draws, and we keep eating into the surplus that exists around the world,” Hardy said at the event, as carried by Bloomberg.

Despite the uptick in flows from the Strait of Hormuz, only 1 million barrels per day (bpd) out of an estimated 10 million bpd outbound flows are refined products, the rest is crude.

Refinery capacity is constrained in the Middle East, due to Iranian strikes on refineries and the trickle of fuel flows through Hormuz.

Moreover, refinery capacity in Russia is also severely restricted by nearly-daily Ukrainian drone strikes at Russian refineries, while Russia has banned diesel exports until at least the end of September.

Refineries in the United States and elsewhere have been running at maximum capacity this summer, having delayed maintenance. But they are unlikely to continue operating at these elevated utilization rates for much longer.

If the global refining system can sustain these processing rates until the end of this year, “it is going to be an achievement,” Shaikh Khaled Ahmad Al Sabah, managing director for international marketing at Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), told Bloomberg.

“I think we’re going to see a very difficult winter coming in Northwest Europe,” the executive said. “This is only the beginning.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 22:10
Tyler Durden

Oil Tanker Rates Hit Record Highs as Middle East Shipping Risks Soar

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Oil Tanker Rates Hit Record Highs as Middle East Shipping Risks Soar

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Oil tanker rates have jumped to record highs as escalating risks to shipping in and out of the Middle East are prompting traders and tanker operators to undertake inefficient and more expensive trade routes.

While the crude oil supply is actually there, shipping it through the Strait of Hormuz remains a very risky endeavor, especially in light of the escalating U.S.-Iran tanker war in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, while Saudi Arabia has started to move crude cargoes out of the region through the north of the Red Sea and from Egypt’s Mediterranean ports.

The much longer workarounds are tying tankers and supertankers for longer with the shippers, tightening the market of available vessels so much that rates are skyrocketing to all-time highs. 

For example, the benchmark daily rate for a very large crude carrier (VLCC) to ship oil from the Middle East to China has hit a record high of almost $800,000, per data compiled by Bloomberg.

The price of chartering a supertanker to ship crude from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia has now hit a lump-sum fee of $29.5 million per run, and that’s not even factoring in fees for additional war risks or unexpected delays. 

“The VLCC positions list is now so tight that no one would be too surprised if we see the WS 400 mark breached for a Fujairah/East run off a prompt-ish position before long, crazy as it may sound,” shipbroker Fearnleys said in its latest weekly report for the week ended September 9.

“The oil still needs to get out through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranians have increased efforts to stop that from happening. It’s a fragile state of affairs,” the shipbroker added.

“There’s quite a few bottlenecks all at the same time,” Alex Grant, Equinor’s global head of crude, products and liquids trading, told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the APPEC petroleum conference in Singapore.

“The market is quite stressed with all of that, and that’s showing up in the shipping rates.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 21:40
Tyler Durden

Pakistan's Energy Crisis Set To Ease As Qatari LNG Breaks Through Hormuz

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Pakistan's Energy Crisis Set To Ease As Qatari LNG Breaks Through Hormuz

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Pakistan is about to get some energy relief with tankers carrying Qatari LNG set to arrive in the country this month. The first cargo is seen arriving as early as Thursday, Bloomberg reported, citing ship-tracking data.

Pakistan has been struggling to keep the lights on after Qatar declared force majeure on its exports following Iranian strikes that caused damage to its Ras Laffan LNG hub. Since then, Pakistan has been forced to turn to spot LNG markets and pay hefty premiums for the occasional shipment. Qatar was the biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas to the South Asian nation, under long-term contracts.

The country has issued several prompt liquefied gas delivery tenders over the past three months, consistently paying $20 per million British thermal units and more-a tender earlier this month ended without an order, after Pakistan's state gas company only received one offer, whose price was $27 per million British thermal units. This is three times higher than pre-war LNG prices that Pakistan was paying.

"The international LNG price is around $23.18 per MMBtu, whereas the bid received was $26.969 per MMBtu. The price was considered too high, so a fresh tender has been issued," a senior Pakistan LNG Limited executive said, as quoted by Pakistani media earlier this month. Following the failure of that tender, Pakistan LNG issued a new one.

The Qatari cargoes would go some way towards alleviating the energy crisis in Pakistan, where power generation costs have soared due to the gas crunch and rolling blackouts have become a fixture of life, sometimes lasting for 24 hours in some parts of the country. As of July, these were 38% higher than a year earlier and since then have likely one even higher as LNG on the spot market has also trended higher while QatarEnergy announced an extension of its force majeure.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 20:55
Tyler Durden

Needham Spots Autonomous Trucking Inflection Point Arriving Next Year

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Needham Spots Autonomous Trucking Inflection Point Arriving Next Year

Swedish freight company Einride's announcement last month that it plans to deploy 500 Tesla Semis on US roads, the largest publicly announced commitment to electric Class 8 trucks, suggests a shift toward fleet electrification. It also brings the next phase of trucking technology into focus: the gradual commercialization of autonomous freight.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has targeted late 2026 or early 2027 for self-driving capabilities to begin working on the Semi. That remains a Musk target, not a confirmed commercial rollout. Any version requiring a human operator would be supervised automation, like FSD on Tesla sedans, SUVs, and the Cybertruck.

NEWS: Google announced a major electric trucking project in Texas featuring Tesla Semi.

Google, Nevoya and Center for Green Market Activation will deploy:

• 25 electric semi trucks.
• Dedicated charging infrastructure
• An all-electric freight route between Houston & Dallas. pic.twitter.com/ZxSbFIJk5C

— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) September 9, 2026

Needham analysts Chris Pierce and Mackenzie Holleran see a broader industry inflection point approaching in 2027, as factory-integrated autonomous trucks begin reaching fleets in greater numbers. Their note to clients says automation in trucking will lower operating costs, while longer operating hours could accelerate deliveries and shift market share toward larger carriers.

The analysts said that driverless trucking is already moving beyond technical demonstrations as developers expand routes, remove onboard safety observers and secure carrier commitments. The next test is whether carriers enter a mass-adoption supercycle to automate their fleets and drive down labor costs.

"We believe the debate has shifted from 'can autonomous trucking work?' to 'how quickly can it scale?'" the analysts said.

They continued, "We see compelling benefits for early adopters and eventual trucking industry consolidation, underwritten by the increasing rate of adoption as industry participants see autonomy as a driver of share gain tilting the capacity playing field to lower cost providers capable of driving longer routes in shorter timeframes better satisfying customer demand."

The analysts identified Aurora as the industry leader, citing expanded routes and operating conditions, customer contracts and the removal of safety observers from certain trucks in July. Kodiak targets observer removal by year-end, with Plus AI targeting driverless operations in 2027.

They noted that long-haul freight "represents the earliest commercial opportunity for autonomous trucking."

Here's how much carriers will save: 

Higher asset utilization… Autonomous trucks are not constrained by fatigue or federal hours-of-service regulations. The 10 hour Dallas to Phoenix route can be completed in 10 hours leveraging autonomy, vs human drivers facing an 8 continuous driving hour burden, and autonomous trucks have unlimited patience to wait out inclement weather as needed. Outside of fueling, charging, loading and maintenance, autonomous trucks can operate nearly continuously, with AUR citing a potential more than 2x increase in asset utilization for carriers.

... and lower operating costs... Early autonomous per mile rates cited by AUR and The American Transportation Research Institute show autonomous to be meaningfully cheaper than human drivers, with labor the single largest operating expense for most carriers. Cost savings are compounded by improved fuel efficiency and fewer at fault accidents reducing insurance costs, creating a secondary economic benefit beyond first order labor savings.

While solving for a structural labor problem...The American Trucking Association estimates the current US. truck driver shortage at over ~82k drivers, a growing gap due to rising freight demand and average driver age and retirement rates, with industry sources emphasizing that the challenge is increasingly one of driver quality and retention rather than simply the number of licensed drivers. 

For Tesla, the first step toward automation would likely be Semi trucks running supervised FSD with a human operator. The broader industry opportunity is fully driverless Class 8 adoption, which could begin next year as carriers seek to reduce driver labor costs and increase fleet utilization.

The pace of adoption will depend on safety and production of lidar, radar, and the computing needed for each truck.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 20:30
Tyler Durden

Perfectly Timed AI Panic Resurrects 'Bipartisan AI Safety Bill'

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Perfectly Timed AI Panic Resurrects 'Bipartisan AI Safety Bill'

A stalled bipartisan artificial intelligence safety bill has suddenly found new life on Capitol Hill - propelled by a combination of dire warnings from inside the industry's leading labs and a brewing grassroots revolt threatening Republicans in key midterm states.

According to a new report from Semafor, momentum is building for a Senate regulatory framework just as a conservative-led "AI Data Center Revolt" bus tour hits the road. Spearheaded by Amy Kremer, a Georgia RNC committeewoman and chair of the AI-risk group Humans First, the tour is set to cross crucial battlegrounds including Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, and North Carolina. The grassroots push adds a complex layer for Republican candidates - like Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton and North Carolina's Michael Whatley - who are now caught between Donald Trump's general support for AI infrastructure and growing local opposition to massive data centers.

But in Washington, the sudden legislative urgency looks less like a grassroots miracle and more like a highly coordinated pressure campaign. After weeks of stalled negotiations, the Senate's leading vehicle for AI regulation - negotiated by Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) - is suddenly being positioned as the "only viable option" to pass before the end of the year.

What broke the legislative logjam was a perfectly timed, 48-hour media blast from the very labs the bill seeks to regulate.

Panic.exe

Here's how the situation unfolded. 

July 2026: OpenAI discloses that agents escaped a research sandbox, coordinated, and hacked Hugging Face. Within days, Reps. Ted Lieu (D) and Nathaniel Moran (R) drop the AI Kill Switch Act. Reps. Lori Trahan (D) and Jay Obernolte (R) introduce the FRONTIER Act - audits, incident reporting, and Commerce authority to restrict models judged to pose "imminent catastrophic risk."

Late July / August: Senate talks among Amy Klobuchar (D), Ted Cruz (R), and Majority Leader John Thune stall. Punchbowl reported the hang-up: Anthropic and Sen. Maria Cantwell wanted a more disclosure-heavy, stringent version than Republicans would accept. The bill appeared dead.

Then came the September surprise.

The Insider Blast

Sept 8-9, 2026: Jacob Coxon, a 27-year-old pretraining researcher who spent three years at OpenAI then four months at Anthropic, resigns and posts that both labs are "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives."

"The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt."

The thread explodes to 100M+ views. Anthropic's own alignment-science lead, Evan Hubinger, replies on his own account: researchers "earnestly believe AI could kill all humans," and he personally puts the chance above 10% this decade. He adds Anthropic "do[es] not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and [is] not clearly on track to."

Not everyone thinks this is exactly organic: 

Seems like a setup

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 10, 2026

And as Josh Caplan of CAPITAL news points out, he still has equity in OpenAI...

Oh. pic.twitter.com/qU7FXiGljy

— Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) September 10, 2026

Sept 9: OpenAI's Chris Lehane publishes "The AI policy window is open. We need to act," calling for mandatory national capability-based safety rules and urging Congress to move before it adjourns. OpenAI says it is now supporting some California bills it previously declined.

Also Sept 9: Anthropic's economics team publishes "Scenarios for our Economic Future" - three paths to 2030. In the extreme one, GDP grows 15% a year, unemployment hits 11.9%, knowledge-worker wages fall more than 10%, and labor's share of GDP drops from about 60% to 45%.

🦔Anthropic published an economic model this week on how AI could affect the US economy by 2030. They ran three scenarios. In the modest one, AI has about the same impact as the internet. In the substantial one, GDP growth doubles but knowledge worker wages go flat. In the…

— Hedgie (@HedgieMarkets) September 9, 2026

The paper lands weeks ahead of an IPO expected at a reported $2 trillion valuation and alongside a $15 billion pre-IPO debt raise.

Regulatory Capture by Panic?

Sept 10, today: Semafor reports the Klobuchar-Cruz-Thune bill is suddenly "the only viable option" before 2027 and "may be introduced as early as next week." Klobuchar: "it's clear we need to act now and not wait." Cruz: working on legislation "to address catastrophic risks involving biological or nuclear threats." Frontier labs and advocacy groups are already feeding Hill staff on unreleased draft text. Bernie Sanders is teeing up a superintelligence ban and a briefing.

AND LOOK... in response to Coxon:

Meanwhile, others are pointing out that the post went extremely viral, extremely fast, for a 'nobody' account:

I don’t think this has ever happened for a post from a new account with almost no prior activity

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 10, 2026

So - years of the same warning, then two months of incidents that may or may not have been blown out of proportion, then a 48-hour media blast from inside the labs, then the stalled bipartisan bill is "the only viable option" and might drop next week.

The 48-hour news cycle created the exact permission structure required to resurrect the Klobuchar-Cruz-Thune bill. Meanwhile, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is threatening a hardline superintelligence ban, which strategically makes the bipartisan compromise appear perfectly moderate.

While the exact text remains unreleased, the live Senate vehicle reportedly focuses on giving the Commerce Department and DHS significant levers over frontier models while preempting the state patchwork.

That preemption is the crucial tell. For a year, Republicans have sought to block states like California and New York from creating their own disjointed audit regimes, while Democrats have demanded affirmative federal safety duties. Frontier incumbents like OpenAI and Anthropic - who are already feeding Hill staff on the draft text - stand to benefit massively from a unified federal floor. Mandatory audits, kill-switch requirements, and incident reporting create a massive compliance moat that smaller startups and open-weight projects cannot afford.

It appears the propaganda is working as the odds an AI Safety Bill being enacted before 2027 have shot up...

As Quoth The Raven opines further:

This (AI regulation) could create an interesting problem for markets (on top of the other catalysts that could cause an AI crash) because Wall Street has spent the last several years making an enormous bet on precisely the opposite outcome. The AI trade isn’t just a handful of technology stocks anymore. It encompasses semis, data centers, cloud infrastructure, networking equipment, electricity generation, utilities, natural gas, nuclear power, cooling equipment, construction and the enormous financing apparatus required to build all of it.

Hundreds of billions of dollars are being committed on the assumption that demand for computing power will continue rising at an extraordinary rate.

Embedded in that assumption is something investors haven’t had much reason to question: that frontier AI development will continue largely uninterrupted.

If Washington changes that assumption, even temporarily, the financial consequences could arrive much faster than the technological ones.

Imagine that increasingly capable models suddenly require federal approval, extensive testing or expensive certification before deployment. Imagine strict liability for certain failures, hard limits on autonomous capabilities or restrictions on training models beyond specified thresholds. An outright moratorium isn’t even necessary. The government would only need to make the timing and economics of future model development less certain.

Markets would then have to reconsider how much computing infrastructure will actually be needed, and how quickly. Data-center projections could come down. Semiconductor forecasts could follow. Electricity-demand estimates could be revised, infrastructure projects could be delayed and lenders could become less enthusiastic about financing projects whose expected returns have suddenly become harder to calculate. The effects would ripple far beyond the companies actually developing the models.

That’s particularly important because markets don’t wait for revenue to disappear before repricing an asset to the downside…just like they don’t wait for profits to price dogshit to the upside. The AI boom has produced enormous valuations because investors expect enormous future demand. Change the expected trajectory of that demand and those valuations can change remarkably quickly.

This doesn’t mean an AI safety bill would necessarily crash the market, nor does it mean regulation would be economically destructive over the long run. Clear rules could ultimately reduce uncertainty and make the industry healthier. A modest bill could also wind up having almost no effect on the pace of development. But a genuinely restrictive regime would introduce a risk that I don’t think the market has spent much time pricing at all.

That’s what makes the timing so interesting. For years, investors have treated faster AI development almost entirely as an economic positive: better models mean more chips, more data centers, more electricity, more software, more productivity and more investment. The safety argument introduces the possibility that faster development eventually becomes politically unacceptable. If lawmakers begin viewing frontier AI as a national-security or catastrophic-risk problem rather than simply another technological industry, the assumptions supporting the AI capital-spending boom could change very quickly.

That leaves us with a remarkable irony. Yesterday I argued that we may have a relatively narrow window in which humans can still meaningfully decide how far and how quickly this technology should advance. A day later, there are signs that Congress is beginning to have exactly that conversation. If the warnings coming from inside the AI industry are remotely accurate, lawmakers arguably have an obligation to take them seriously. But investors should also recognize what serious action could mean…that an AI crash could very well start on, or ahead of schedule.

We have spent years building valuations, infrastructure and investment plans around the assumption that the AI race will keep accelerating. If Washington suddenly decides the race needs a speed limit, AI itself may not be the first thing that breaks…the pure euphoria-fueled market built around its insane financial projections and financing circle jerks could be.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 20:15
Tyler Durden

Why Family-Run Grocers Are Suing New York Over City-Run Stores

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Why Family-Run Grocers Are Suing New York Over City-Run Stores

Authored by Russ Jones via The Epoch Times,

Josefina Aguirre grew up among the piñatas hanging from the ceiling of Little Mexico Meat Market, the store her parents opened in New York City's El Barrio in 1997, three years after her father crossed the border from Mexico at 17.

She has a bachelor's degree in business management, a qualification her parents, Oscar and Guadalupe Aguirre, insisted on. But she came back to work at the store anyway - to the same three coolers of fresh cheese and cilantro, the same shelves of jalapeños and tomatillos, and the same customers who still bring in their mail so she can read it to them in English.

The store has survived the opening of a Costco nearby. It survived COVID-19, barely. Her father caught the virus and died before he ever got to enjoy the retirement he had worked 28 years for.

Now, Aguirre and her sisters, who run the shop together, are bracing for what they see as the biggest threat yet: a city-subsidized grocery store that can sell a $10 steak for $7, because, unlike them, it doesn't have to turn a profit.

"We're not scared of competition," Aguirre told The Epoch Times on Aug. 29 from behind the counter in Spanish Harlem. "We just want fair competition."

A dozen blocks south, Yessica Lezama hears the same fear from her parents. Benito and Carmen emigrated from Mexico and became U.S. citizens before opening El Pueblo Mexicano Grocery on Third Avenue 25 years ago. They were drawn to the stretch of neighborhood known for its Mexican community.

Lezama, 38, has worked with her parents for three years, serving the same customers and stocking the same shelves of fruits, vegetables, and Mexican products that have kept the store going for a generation.

"I think it will have a bad impact on sales," Lezama said of the mayor's grocery store plan. "Since we're a Mexican store, the city-run store won't sell the same products, but it will still hurt us."

Lezama said nearby business owners have formed an informal network to share information and support one another as the plan moves forward, meeting regularly to talk through their options.

"We help each other," she said. "It is hard enough already. We don't get a lot of help, and we're worried about going out of business."

Her parents are hoping to do more than just survive, Lezama said. They are working with a small-business association to modernize the store.

"My parents need help to make it more beautiful," she said.

2 Lawsuits, 1 Target

Aguirre is one of hundreds of small-business owners now represented in two lawsuits filed against New York City by the Multicultural Business Coalition, a group representing roughly 1,000 minority-owned bodegas, delis, and supermarkets. The group argues that Mayor Zohran Mamdani's plan to open city-run grocery stores will drive them out of business rather than help their neighborhoods.

The coalition filed a class-action complaint in the New York County Supreme Court on Aug. 24, alleging antitrust violations and predatory pricing, and a second suit the same day alleging that the city retaliated against members after they began organizing against the mayor's plan.

Together, the suits mark one of the most direct legal challenges yet to a marquee policy of Mamdani's first year in office.

The first complaint states, "The Defendants' municipal grocery stores deny the Class Members, hundreds of grocers, many small grocers equal protection, as they are not able to offer discounts that markedly depart from globalized commerce, thereby violating New York's Civil Rights Law."

The second suit states that the "opening of the underlying municipal grocery stores ... is diametrically opposed to the City's longstanding reasons for refusing to allow Walmart to operate grocery stores in the City: that the fallout from allowing Walmart to operate deep discount business, while bringing 'affordability,' further enriching a multibillion-dollar business, would eliminate an untold amount of opportunity for minority businesses, and small business at large."

Mamdani responded to the suits the same day they were filed.

"I'm confident in both the legality of this - that it will stand up in court - and the importance of delivering it," he said at an Aug. 24 news conference.

Frank Garcia, the coalition's chairman and head of the New York State Coalition of Hispanic Chambers of Commerce, said the mayor's confidence misses what's actually at stake for the coalition's members.

"My grandfather opened up one of the first bodegas in the late 1960s, when East Harlem was burning," he told The Epoch Times.

"I am proud to be following in his tradition, because what Mayor Mamdani is doing is disgracing his memory."

Inside the $70 Million Plan

Under the plan, first unveiled last year, the city will spend $70 million to open five publicly owned grocery stores, one in each borough, offering staples at prices roughly 30 percent below market rate.

The stores won't sell beer, cigarettes, or lottery tickets and will be designed to keep prices low rather than turn a profit. The goal, Mamdani has said, is to make food more affordable in neighborhoods with high poverty rates and limited access to full-service supermarkets.

The Bronx location, in an affordable housing complex in Hunts Point, is expected to open in 2027. The East Harlem store will be located at the 9,000-square-foot marketplace La Marqueta and is projected to open in 2029, according to city officials.

Mamdani has repeatedly defended the initiative.

"I continue to be fully confident in both the legality and the importance of our initiative to deliver five city-run grocery stores, one in each borough, to the people of our city," he said in a statement in July, noting that grocery prices in the city have climbed by roughly 30 percent in recent years and that City Hall could also ease regulations to help existing store owners in the meantime.

Garcia said the coalition tried repeatedly to meet with Mamdani before filing suit, without success, and that the city moved ahead without ever conducting an economic impact study.

"Why are they going against immigrant business owners who can't speak English and defend themselves?" Garcia said. "I don't see that the mayor is being fair."

Mark Jaffe, general counsel for the Multicultural Business Coalition and president of the Greater New York Chamber of Commerce, told The Epoch Times that the city's plan goes further than officials have admitted.

"Their plan is to eventually put every independent store owner out of business," Jaffe said. "And if you're lucky, maybe they'll give you a job."

When he pressed city officials for details on how the stores would actually be run, he said, he got no real answer.

"We asked what the business plan was," Jaffe said. "They told us, 'We don't need a plan, because the people we select will be responsible for coming up with the plan.'"

Jaffe also questioned whether a single store per borough would even reach the people Mamdani says he wants to help.

"Who is this really going to serve?" he said. "By the time you get on the train and spend two hours traveling, you're paying more" than you would have shopping at a neighborhood store.

An Economist's Warning

Economists are divided on what the lawsuits and the underlying policy mean for the city's food supply chain.

Christian Briggs, a political and economic analyst who has advised members of Congress, argued that the plan fits a broader pattern of government expansion into private markets.

"This is a manmade takeover of the food supply system," Briggs told The Epoch Times, comparing the initiative to nationalization efforts he attributed to past presidential administrations.

He noted that grocery stores typically run on net margins of just 4 percent to 5 percent, making a government-subsidized competitor selling goods 30 percent below market what he called "the beginning of the nationalization of our food chain supply system."

Briggs also predicted that despite the coalition's legal argument, consumer behavior would ultimately favor the city-run stores.

"'Free' is the most powerful word in the English language," he said, likening the grocery plan to the long-term trajectory of entitlement programs.

"The lawsuits are valid. They're justified. But in the end, you will not win over the word 'free,' because voters love free."

'Using Taxpayer Money'

Back at Little Mexico Meat Market, Aguirre said the math is simple and unforgiving. Her margin on a $10 steak helps cover her mortgage, her children's tuition, her rent, and utilities.

A city-run competitor selling the same steak for $7, funded by taxpayers rather than sales, doesn't have to make that math work.

"He can afford it because he's using taxpayer money," Aguirre said. "We don't have any help. Loans have been made difficult to get."

She and her sisters have quietly begun discussing plan B, such as teaching or other careers, or anything that doesn't mean losing more of what their father built before he died. That loss follows her behind the register every day - behind the same counter where her father used to stand.

"Is it fair for me to leave and start a new career?" Aguirre asked.

It's not a question she wants to answer. Not yet, anyway.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 20:05
Tyler Durden

Citi Says LatAm "Poised For Take-Off" As Powerful Tailwinds Align. Here's Why

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Citi Says LatAm "Poised For Take-Off" As Powerful Tailwinds Align. Here's Why

Our focus on South America's improving investment outlook, underpinned by a generational shift from left-wing governments to more business-friendly governments, gained support Thursday from Citi's report, "LatAm Poised for Take-Off: The Macro Cycle Turns Latin America's Way."

Citi chief Latin America economist Ernesto Revilla wrote in a note earlier today that a right-wing political shift is serving as a tailwind alongside a weaker dollar, firm commodity prices, and global supply-chain realignment, while stressing that lasting gains depend on reforms and execution. 

Here is Revilla's take on improving LatAM markets: 

Latin America is entering one of its most favorable environments in years, with external and domestic conditions supporting a potential acceleration in growth. The global economy has remained resilient despite recent shocks, while a weaker U.S. dollar and firm commodity prices provide important tailwinds for the region. Latin America is also benefiting from shifting trade patterns, standing out as one of the few regions gaining import market share from both the U.S. and China. At the same time, stronger macroeconomic management, improving policy frameworks, and a more business-friendly political backdrop in several countries are strengthening the investment case. In this report, we examine whether these forces can translate into sustained growth and market outperformance. Our conclusion is clear: the opportunity is significant, but lasting success will depend on reforms, execution, and policy consistency.

Latin America is poised for take-off. Or to be more precise: the conditions for Latin America to achieve a higher rate of growth are the best they have been in decades, and it is time to capitalize on the opportunity.

The last time the region achieved a sustained acceleration in growth was from 2003-2008. Back then, a weak dollar (USD) and strong commodity prices combined to form the backdrop for growth. Those conditions, and more, are present again today.

Still, the development misfortune of Latin America is how little (or no) convergence it has achieved toward higher income levels. Convergence is the expectation that an emerging market will achieve higher growth rates to catch up to developed markets. As a region, Latin America has achieved little sustained convergence over the past 120 years. Consider that in 1990, LatAm's GDP per capita as a share of the U.S. was 28%; in 2024, it was 26.4%. Other regions, particularly Emerging Asia, have achieved significant rates of growth and convergence.

When looking at different eras of growth and development for Latin America, it is not easy to extract common characteristics of high growth episodes. Generally, one would expect that strong commodity prices, domestic political stability or at least policy continuity, and pragmatic governments are minimum conditions. Latin America has those again today. However, history shows that there were periods of strong growth without particularly strong commodity prices (1950 to 1973), or strong investment (the commodities boom of the 2000s).

However, the common denominator across eras when Latin America has achieved high growth and convergence (an increase in its GDP per capita as a share of the U.S. GDP per capita) is when the USD has been weak. This is because a weak USD implies easier financial conditions for emerging markets: Capital flows increase searching for stronger currencies and returns, debt repayment is cheaper, and commodity prices move higher. Right now, the global economy is facing a weak(er) USD regime that has benefited Latin America, and that for various reasons might be expected to continue in the medium term.

The region is enjoying many other tailwinds as well. Commodity prices, and hence terms of trade for the region, are the highest they have been since the supercycle of the 2000s. Latin America has benefited from the global trade reconfiguration as it has been one of the few places in the world that has gained market share both in China and in the U.S. since 2016 when trade tensions started. This is due in part to the extraordinary geographic advantage that Latin America enjoys, being far away from geopolitical conflict, and its possession of large reserves of the minerals and commodities that a world in flux demands. The nearshoring of manufacturing finds the region ideally positioned. Macro management in the region has matured as the successful fight against post-pandemic inflation demonstrates, even ahead of other developed and emerging markets.

The political cycle is a tailwind as well with a turn towards governments that are more explicitly business-friendly and reform-oriented. The right-wing turn, additionally, better aligns the region with a U.S. that is more active in the region at a time when increased foreign investment and attention is being focused on the region.

Despite the many tailwinds that are aligning in favor of the region, growth is not yet accelerating. Growth remains resilient but low, stuck around the 2% trend, below potential and what is needed to escape the non-convergence trap. That is why we see the current period as one of opportunity but not one of a guaranteed era of success. The bull case does not rest on current growth, but on valuation, level of currencies, carry, terms of trade, policy credibility, and the serendipitous combination of favorable factors not seen in more than a decade. Opportunity is there but needs to be captured through action and reforms.

There are challenges of course. We discuss in depth the fiscal one, which in a number of countries requires forceful action amid political constraints and institutional rigidities. We do not discuss others, such as the complex security situation, which has been on top of mind for voters in the region.

Not all favorable circumstances will be in place forever, and some of them are beyond LatAm's control. That is, some of the tailwinds are cyclical, not structural, and some depend on external circumstances, not internal ones. However, across modern Latin American history it is hard to find episodes when a set of positive factors combine serendipitously to set the stage for a higher level of growth and convergence. The stakes for 660 million people living in the region, for investors leveraged to the region's future, and for future generations are high. It also underpins the political stability of the western hemisphere.

This Citi Research report digs deep into the current set of positive factors surrounding Latin America, discusses macro, trade, fiscal and productivity dimensions, and discusses investment implications across asset classes. We are proud to welcome the perspectives of the region's heads of Banking and Wealth as well to add to our view.

Latin America is in the right place, at the right time.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index is testing a breakout above a price ceiling that has capped several rallies since roughly 2014. The red dashed line marks resistance near 3,000, where advances stalled around 2017-19. The circled area shows the latest rally pushing back above that level.

The key question is whether 3,000 becomes a new support level, given the political tailwinds from recent elections that have shifted much of the continent to the right after years of failed progressive experiments.

The next big election to watch is Brazil (read the latest report).

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 19:40
Tyler Durden

Sinopec Sees China Oil Demand Falling 8.9% in 2026

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Sinopec Sees China Oil Demand Falling 8.9% in 2026

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

China’s Sinopec, the world’s top refiner by capacity, expects Chinese oil demand to drop by 8.9% in 2026 from a year earlier amid demand destruction from higher oil prices and the acceleration of electric vehicle adoption.

Oil demand in the world’s biggest crude oil importer is expected to drop by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) on average this year compared to last year, according to estimates by Sinopec’s research arm quoted by Reuters.

Gasoline demand is set for an 8.7% decline, while diesel consumption is expected to crash by 11.4%, Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute says.

The only petroleum product used in transportation that would see an increase is jet fuel, whose demand is expected to increase by 1.3% this year compared to 2025.

The high oil and fuel prices amid the Iran war accelerated the structural shift toward EVs this year, eating into the road transportation fuel demand.

China has managed the Strait of Hormuz crisis better than most expectations as it slashed its imports of crude oil and temporarily banned fuel exports in the spring and early summer.

The high oil prices destroyed some demand and sped up the adoption of EVs, which has been growing anyway in recent years, suppressing total oil demand even without blocked crude supplies in the Middle East.

Amid falling road fuel demand, Sinopec, or China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation as it is officially known, is looking to transform its business.

Sinopec will be allocating more capital to new energy and chemicals by the end of the decade to grow revenues and profits amid the lowest domestic fuel sales in China in nearly a decade.

In its first-half earnings release, Sinopec flagged falling domestic fuel sales, which have been weighing on the company’s earnings for two years now.

“Due to the dampening effect of high oil prices on demand and accelerated substitution by new energy, domestic refined oil products consumption declined by 8.6% year on year, among which gasoline decreased by 7.9%, diesel decreased by 11.5%, while jet fuel (kerosene) rose by 1.3% driven by holiday travel and the recovery of international routes,” Sinopec said in its press release.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 19:15
Tyler Durden

Several US Warplanes Damaged In This Week's Iranian Attack On Base In Jordan: Report

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Several US Warplanes Damaged In This Week's Iranian Attack On Base In Jordan: Report

The Iranian ballistic missile attack on an American base in Jordan this week ranks as one of the single biggest missile volleys sent over Jordan since the start of the US-led war.

The Tuesday night into Wednesday attack targeted Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, multiple international reports say. Widely shared but unconfirmed social media videos appeared to show several direct impacts on the base. But at least some of the images have been authenticated by outlets like Dropsite News.

Source: USAF

US Central Command (CENTCOM) sought to downplay the attack, saying initially that all troops were account for, but not immediately divulging whether casualties resulted. 

Since then, the Pentagon has said that no deaths resulted from the strikes on Jordan, during which time over 30 Patriot missiles were deployed as an aerial defensive measure.

While the Pentagon has remained mum on specifics, officials have acknowledged light material damage at the base.

New reporting from CBS says that several US military aircraft were damaged in the attack, based on anonymous defense officials, with at least one warplane being knocked out of commission:

Multiple American military aircraft were damaged in Iranian strikes overnight Tuesday into Wednesday local time on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, people with direct knowledge of the matter told CBS News. 

One A-10 Thunderbolt, an attack aircraft known as the Warthog, was struck and lost a wing, the sources said. 

Roughly eight F-15s sustained light damage and were reportedly put back into service, according to the people familiar with the damage, who spoke to CBS News under the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Video shared by Iran’s Tasnim News Agency purportedly shows multiple Iranian missiles striking Jordan’s Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base as dozens of air-defense interceptors are fired. Drop Site has not independently verified the video. pic.twitter.com/YB0yMuSWLU

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) September 9, 2026

If the report is accurate, this means that clearly a number of missiles got through the dozens of Patriots launched to intercept. In summary...

  • Around eight F-15s reportedly suffered damage, while an A-10 Warthog was struck and lost a wing
  • US forces fired more than 30 Patriot missiles during the attack, costing over $126 million

Unconfirmed video: "The US Army is transferring Black Hawk helicopters from the American Muwaqqaf Al-Salti base in Jordan, including damaged helicopters."

الجيش الأميركي ينقل مروحيات بلاك هوك من قاعدة موفق السلطي الأميركية بالأردن، بينها مروحيات متضررة. pic.twitter.com/mNO7PT0fjo

— Ali BKK (@cameliaii32) September 9, 2026

Dozens of expensive aircraft, including large refuelers, have been destroyed by Iran's 'retaliation' throughout Operation Epic Fury as part of its 'debasifaction' campaign.

This has led to a broad retreat of US forces from 'frontline' Gulf bases, which may actually never be fully reconstituted again, or even rebuilt.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 18:50
Tyler Durden

Trump Broadens Interior's Role In National Energy Emergencies

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Trump Broadens Interior's Role In National Energy Emergencies

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump expanded the number of Cabinet officials who can independently exercise emergency powers involving the nation's energy supplies for the second time in six months.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum testifies on Capitol Hill on April 29, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

An executive order issued Sept. 8 gives the interior secretary authority under the Defense Production Act that had previously rested largely with the energy secretary. Trump added the energy secretary alongside the commerce secretary under a similar provision in March.

Before March, the commerce secretary held authority under one provision intended to maximize energy supplies. Trump's action Tuesday leaves the three officials independently authorized to act on energy-related matters under the Defense Production Act.

The Defense Production Act, created five years after the end of World War II, allows the president to tell private companies to give federal contracts priority over private-sector customers. It also allows the president to provide financial incentives to increase the supply of materials and technologies considered vital to national defense. Congress has reauthorized the law more than 50 times since its enactment in 1950.

The Interior Department oversees federal lands and waters containing significant energy and mineral resources. Its agencies administer onshore oil and gas leasing and production, while the interior secretary approves the five-year schedule for offshore oil and gas lease sales. The department's energy portfolio also includes coal, critical minerals, geothermal energy, and wind and solar development on public lands.

The new order gives the interior and energy secretaries independent authority to require that certain energy-related contracts receive priority and to allocate energy resources when necessary to support national defense.

The order also establishes a process for resolving disagreements between the two departments. Energy-related disputes between the interior and energy secretaries will be referred to the National Energy Dominance Council. Disputes involving national defense infrastructure or military operations will be referred to the National Energy Dominance Council and the National Security Council while coordinating with the Department of War.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, a former North Dakota governor, also chairs the White House National Energy Dominance Council. In March, Burgum went to Venezuela to meet with leader Delcy Rodriguez to discuss investments and expansion of the country's natural resources.

Nearly six months later, Trump announced a deal with Venezuela to take control of 65 billion barrels from Venezuela's oil reserves. Trump said the deal was a partnership of private businesses and was brokered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth while working with Rodriguez.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 18:25
Tyler Durden

Right-Wing Bolsonaro Overtakes Socialist Lula On Polymarket As Brazil Election Nears

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Right-Wing Bolsonaro Overtakes Socialist Lula On Polymarket As Brazil Election Nears

Polymarket's "Brazil Presidential Election" market, with nearly $150 million in trading volume, now favors right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro over leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of October's election. The shift follows polling data released earlier this week showing Bolsonaro pulling ahead in a hypothetical runoff, although the candidates remain statistically tied within the margin of error.

Bolsonaro took the lead on Polymarket around 8:20 a.m. ET, and by early Thursday afternoon, he stood at around 52.8% versus Lula's 44%.

On Tuesday, the BTG Pactual/Nexus survey showed that Bolsonaro had edged ahead of Lula for the first time. This comes as a deepening Supreme Court scandal strengthens the conservative challenger's campaign.

As the gap between Bolsonaro and Lula narrowed in recent weeks and the race became a toss-up, we pointed out an "explosive surge" in call open interest in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ).

And someone appears to be making a huge bet on just that: explosive surge in EWZ call OI https://t.co/nqFaGgms4R pic.twitter.com/uen9bXmqBw

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 8, 2026

On Thursday, Citi chief Latin America economist Ernesto Revilla told clients that Latin America is "poised for take-off," as a right-wing political shift across the continent, a weaker dollar, firm commodity prices, and global supply-chain realignment were producing tailwinds for the region.

Also this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio kicked off his South America tour on Tuesday, first meeting with Trump-backed Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella to strengthen security and economic ties as several countries in the region shift toward right-wing governments. 

A Bolsonaro victory would cement South America's broader shift from unhinged left-wing regimes toward the common-sense right.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 18:00
Tyler Durden

Trump Admin Proposes Excluding Illegal Immigrants From Census Count

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Trump Admin Proposes Excluding Illegal Immigrants From Census Count

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration is proposing to change how the U.S. Census is conducted by excluding illegal immigrants from the population totals that are used to determine political representation.

The Census Bureau posted a proposed rule on Wednesday that said it also wants to prohibit the inclusion of questions about race and ethnicity or sexual orientation on the census in "short-form questionnaire or any questionnaire used for purposes of the enumeration."

The proposed rule said that questions about race and sexual orientation have a "sensitive" nature and could impede responses, and removing them could lead to a higher rate of participation.

The proposed rule cites the definition of "usual residence" as a reason to exclude illegal immigrants.

It states, "Given the historical meaning of 'usual residence' as tied to allegiance, durable permission from the sovereign to settle within the United States, and establishment of domicile within the United States, the Census Bureau proposes to include lawful permanent residents within the apportionment base, while excluding from the apportionment base illegal aliens and aliens whose legal status is less durable and indefinite in length than lawful permanent resident status."

The proposal would extend beyond unauthorized immigrants. It would also exclude foreign citizens whose legal status is "less durable and indefinite in length" than lawful permanent resident status.

The Census Bureau said it is considering using its "enormously broad access" to administrative records to determine an individual's legal status.

The proposed restrictions on demographic questions would apply to the census conducted every 10 years, but not to the American Community Survey or other Census Bureau surveys.

The Census determines how the 435 seats in the House are divided among states, affects Electoral College representation, and the distribution of federal funding.

Excluding undocumented immigrants could reduce the representation of states with large immigrant populations, such as New York and California.

New York Attorney General Letitia James's office said it was exploring legal options over the proposed changes in a post on X on Wednesday.

"The Constitution is clear. Every person living in the United States, regardless of immigration status, must be counted in the Census," James's office stated.

"We stopped the Trump administration's Census attacks in 2020, and we're exploring our legal options to fight back again."

The White House didn't respond to an email seeking comment.

Trump directed the Commerce Department to develop a plan for the U.S. Census that excluded undocumented immigrants in August 2025.

Trump said the count should use modern data, including information from the 2024 election, but did not specify whether he wanted an additional Census before 2030 or a change applying to future counts.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 17:40
Tyler Durden

Ten AI Jobs That Pay Up To 85% More Than Traditional Tech Jobs

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Ten AI Jobs That Pay Up To 85% More Than Traditional Tech Jobs

Tech professionals who add AI skills to their existing expertise can earn significantly more than those in traditional roles, according to a September 2026 study by software talent marketplace Lemon.io. In some cases, the salary premium approaches 85%, while several career transitions could take less than six months, according to Lemon.io.

The research compared established tech jobs with their AI focused equivalents using average base salary data from Indeed, Built In, and Coursera. It also analyzed Google Jobs postings and monthly search volume to determine which AI titles have genuine hiring demand. The roles were then ranked by the salary increase over their traditional counterparts.

ML site reliability engineers came out on top, earning an estimated $240,000 a year compared with $130,000 for traditional site reliability engineers. That is an increase of nearly 85%, or $110,000 annually. The role builds on distributed systems expertise while adding skills such as GPU fleet management and maintaining reliable machine learning training workloads. The transition is estimated to take five to nine months, with 587 job postings identified.

AI/GPU cloud engineers followed with a salary of $250,000, the highest overall pay in the study. Traditional cloud engineers earn around $140,000, meaning AI specialization could increase their salary by nearly 79%. The role requires additional expertise in GPU computing, high speed networking, and storage for large AI workloads. The estimated transition takes five to nine months.

AI solutions architects can earn around $215,000 a year, nearly 60% more than the $135,000 average for traditional solutions architects. The additional skills center on areas such as RAG architecture, model selection, and AI governance rather than deep infrastructure expertise. Experienced architects could potentially make the transition in three to six months, and the study found 765 job postings for the role.

The Lemon.io study shows that Software engineers moving into AI engineering could increase their average salary from $145,000 to $230,000, adding about $85,000 to their annual pay. Existing programming, system design, and CI/CD experience remains valuable, while additional skills include LLM orchestration, RAG pipelines, and AI agent frameworks. The transition takes an estimated four to eight months, and nearly 1,000 job postings were identified.

AI product managers earn an estimated $210,000 annually, compared with $135,000 for traditional product managers, a salary increase of nearly 56%. The role does not require engineering level expertise, but it does demand a solid understanding of AI technologies and their capabilities and limitations. With an estimated transition time of three to six months, it is also one of the more accessible moves in the ranking.

AI analytics engineers can increase their average salary from $122,000 to $185,000, a gain of almost 52%. The transition is among the quickest, taking an estimated three to five months. The research identified 700 job postings for the position.

AI infrastructure engineers earn around $185,000 annually, compared with $130,000 for traditional infrastructure engineers, representing an increase of about 42%. The transition takes an estimated six to 12 months, making it one of the longer paths, but hiring demand is substantial, with 993 job postings identified.

AI data architects earn approximately $190,000 a year, around 40% more than the $136,000 average for traditional data architects. Professionals could potentially make the transition within four to seven months. The study recorded 488 available positions for the role.

LLM engineers earn an estimated $215,000 annually, compared with a baseline salary of $155,000, resulting in a salary premium of nearly 39%. The role also generated more search interest than any other position in the study, with 1.27 million monthly searches. The research identified 817 job postings, while the transition is estimated to take three to six months.

AI application developers round out the top 10, earning around $180,000 a year compared with $137,000 for traditional application developers, an increase of just over 31%. Despite having the smallest salary premium in the ranking, the role had the most job openings, with 1,254 postings. The estimated transition takes four to six months.

The findings suggest that tech professionals may not need to completely change careers to benefit from growing demand for AI expertise. Adding AI capabilities to existing experience in software development, cloud computing, infrastructure, data, or product management could translate into tens of thousands of dollars in additional annual pay.

The salary advantage may not last indefinitely, however. A senior talent sourcer at Lemon.io said employers are currently paying a premium because qualified AI candidates remain relatively scarce. As more professionals acquire these skills and the talent pool expands, the gap between traditional tech salaries and their AI equivalents is likely to narrow.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 17:20
Tyler Durden

South Koreans Rally Against Hormuz Deployment In Front Of US Embassy

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
South Koreans Rally Against Hormuz Deployment In Front Of US Embassy

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com

Protesters gathered near the US Embassy in Seoul on Wednesday to rally against joining the US war with Iran, as the South Korean government is considering deploying military forces to help the US efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Carrying signs that read "Do Not Join a War of Aggression" and "No Military Deployment to Hormuz," the protesters chanted, "We cannot send our young people into a sea of death," according to AFP, which reported from the scene and estimated that about 60 people took part in the demonstration.

via AFP

"Sending our troops to an illegal war waged by the United States is unacceptable," Choi Young-ok, a member of Korean Peace Solidarity for Sovereignty and Reunification, a group that is highly critical of the US military presence in South Korea, told AFP.

"There is no reason for us to send troops when no other country has done so or said it would," added Choi, who also warned that sending South Korean troops would "inevitably lead to casualties."

Also on Wednesday, the office of South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said it has not yet made a final decision on whether Seoul will send troops to the Strait of Hormuz. "The government has not yet finalized its policy and is cautiously assessing it," said Seong Ghi-hong, a press secretary for the presidential office.

Due to its reliance on energy and other exports from the Persian Gulf, the US’s war with Iran has triggered an energy and economic shock in South Korea, and the US is now reportedly putting pressure on Seoul to join the war in some way.

The South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday that the South Korean Defense Ministry has sent a fact-finding mission to the region to assess the potential deployment.

The team is expected to visit the UAE, which hosts US military bases, and could serve as a hub for operations if South Korean forces are deployed to assist in the war.

Amid the South Korean government’s deliberations, Iran has warned Seoul not to get involved.

South Koreans protest a possible military deployment to the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran warns Seoul and polls show majority opposition.

Al Jazeera’s Jack Barton reports. pic.twitter.com/d3mAfiApXE

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) September 10, 2026

"The military presence or operational participation of other nations in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz would inevitably be viewed as direct support for the party committing acts of aggression, and would lead to serious consequences," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei wrote on X on Monday.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 17:00
Tyler Durden

Oracle Rises After Cloud Revenues Beat Thanks To Massive CapEx, Soaring Debt

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Oracle Rises After Cloud Revenues Beat Thanks To Massive CapEx, Soaring Debt

Earnings season may be over, but the occasional earnings reports are still trickling through, and moments ago we got the latest off-season report from the most indebted company in AI, Oracle, which reported adjusted revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate, and which helped push the stock higher, but just barely above where it opened. 

Here's what ORCL reported moments ago for its fiscal first quarter:

  • Adjusted revenue $19.35 billion, +30% y/y, beating estimates of $19.13 billion 
    • Cloud Infrastructure revenue (IaaS) $7.39 billion vs. $3.3 billion y/y, beating estimates of $7.19 billion
    • Software revenue $5.55 billion, -3% y/y, missing estimates of $5.67 billion
    • Hardware revenue $774 million, +16% y/y, beatring estimate $671.1 million
    • Service revenue $1.41 billion, +4.8% y/y, estimate $1.38 billion
      • Software Support revenue $4.90 billion, -1.2% y/y, beating estimates of $4.88 billion
      • Software License revenue $655 million, -14% y/y, missing estimates $718.8 million
  • Adjusted operating income $8.15 billion, +31% y/y, beating estimates of $7.81 billion
  • Adjusted operating margin 42% vs. 42% y/y, beating estimates of 40.8%
     
  • Adjusted EPS $1.92 vs. $1.47 y/y, beating estimates estimate $1.75 
     
  • CapEx $28.5BN, Exp. 22.3BN

Oracle's cloud computing revenue growth topped analysts’ estimates, suggesting the company’s large AI data center projects are helping boost its financial results. Of note, sales in the cloud infrastructure business jumped 121% to $7.4 billion, above the median estimate of $7.19 billion, however this was all on the back of far greater capex spending (see below). As a reminder, this is the hockeystock the company projected for its Cloud Infra Revenue a year ago. Good luck with that.

The financial highlights visually:

A breakdown of ORCL's cloud revenue: the growth rates while material, are well below some of its largest - and far less indebted - peers.

Looking ahead, the company projects EPS to be between $1.83 and $1.91 in constant currency and between $1.85 and $1.93 in USD, which represents growth of 19% to 23% in constant currency and 21% to 25% in USD (excluding a one-time gain from Q2 FY2026.)

Including the investment gain, Q2 FY27 non-GAAP EPS is expected to decline between -19% and -15% in constant currency and decline between -18% and -14% in USD.

For the full fiscal year 2027, Oracle expects total revenue to be at least $90 billion (up 34% in constant currency), and non-GAAP EPS to be at $8.10 (up 18% in constant currency).

While we doubt the market will give it much credit for its RPO, especially since it comes with so much massive off-balance sheet debt, that if one were to actually look at how it is funded, the stock would crater, 

The bigger question is when will ORCL's massive capex convert into actual revenues...

... and more importantly cash flow, as the company continues to burn billions every quarter and is forced to fund itself with ever greater amounts of equity sales and debt. 

ORCL also said it completed an earlier-announced plan to sell $20 billion of equity from time to time at market value. Ahead of Thursday’s earnings, several analysts had raised questions about the timing of the at-the-market equity sale. 

Oracle, traditionally a boring provider of database software, has refashioned itself as a provider of computing power for artificial intelligence work and is embarking on a major build-out of data centers for OpenAI and other customers. It has done so by spending massive amount of capital and taking on even more massive amounts of debt as its cash flow is deeply negative. 

Wall Street is watching the scale of spending on these ambitious projects and how quickly Oracle can complete them. The company said it added 850 megawatts of data center capacity in the quarter.

In response to the beat, ORCL shares gained modestly, rising 4% in extended trading after closing at $152.94, sliding sharply into the earnings. In other words, the stock is now where it closed yesterday.

The stock had dropped 38% since its June 1 high for the year on concerns over financing needs, rising component costs and news reports on data center construction challenges, wrote Derrick Wood, an analyst at TD Cowen, ahead of the results.

And since there is little indication the cash burn will end any time soon, buying ORCL CDS here appears like the far more prudent thing to do than buying the stock and praying...

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 16:46
Tyler Durden

Supreme Court Blocks Missouri Republicans' New Congressional Map

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Supreme Court Blocks Missouri Republicans' New Congressional Map

The U.S. Supreme Court blocked Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins on Thursday from using the state's Republican-drawn 2025 congressional map, an order that puts Missouri back under the districts adopted in 2022. The order ran one page, disclosed no vote, gave no reasoning, and drew no noted dissents.

In this photo taken with a smartphone, people opposed to a congressional redistricting plan rally outside the Missouri Capitol in Jefferson City, Mo., Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/David A. Lieb)

Missouri Republicans drew the new map - known as HB 1 - during a 2025 special session called by Gov. Mike Kehoe, part of a wider redistricting push President Trump encouraged. It was intended to give Republicans seven of the state's eight House seats, reworking the Kansas City-based 5th District held by Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, one of Missouri's two Democratic members.

Opponents submitted more than 300,000 signatures late last year to put the map to a statewide vote. Hoskins rejected the petition on Aug. 4 - the day of Missouri's primary - arguing the state constitution "does not authorize a referendum on congressional redistricting plans passed by the General Assembly."

The Missouri Supreme Court disagreed unanimously on Sept. 3, holding that the constitution "authorizes a referendum as to 'any act of the general assembly' and no exception applies." Because the petition was "legal, sufficient, and timely," the court concluded, the new map was never in effect and will not take effect "unless and until approved by the voters at the November 2026 general election."

The court also dismantled Hoskins' warning that abandoning the new map would cause confusion and expense, calling the argument "wholly unpersuasive" and noting that "these arguments are particularly misplaced given the secretary's delay created" the problems he was complaining about.

The constitutional argument

Hoskins went to the U.S. Supreme Court that Friday night, telling the justices Missouri was "genuinely unsure whether it can switch its governing congressional map in time to run a timely federal election." His core claim was an elections-clause theory: that the Constitution gives state legislatures, not voters signing a petition, the power to set the "Times, Places, and Manner" of federal elections. He added that the state ruling disenfranchised "hundreds of thousands" of voters by moving them into districts where they would be "forced to vote on General Election candidates they had no role in choosing."

Richard von Glahn, who led the referendum committee People Not Politicians, argued the justices had no power to review a ruling resting purely on state law, and that on the merits Hoskins' "Elections Clause theory runs headlong into more than a century of precedent recognizing that state constitutional referendum procedures may constrain congressional-redistricting legislation."

Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who handles emergency matters from Missouri, turned Hoskins down Tuesday afternoon without referring the request to the full court.

Then it got complicated

Less than an hour later, a federal judge ordered the opposite. Chief U.S. District Judge Stephen Clark issued a temporary restraining order requiring the state to use the 2025 map, in a case filed Sept. 4 by Rep. Robert Onder, a Republican representing Missouri's 3rd District, among others. Clark acknowledged that "conducting state elections in accordance with the Missouri Constitution undoubtedly qualifies as an important interest," but found the federal challengers faced irreparable harm "because many Missouri voters would have to cast their general-election votes for candidates whom they had no role in nominating."

Missouri spent the next two days under directly conflicting orders from its own supreme court and a federal one. Hoskins had instructed election administrators to implement the 2022 map immediately after the state ruling. On Sept. 8 he sent a second email telling them to use the 2025 map instead - the act that put him in contempt proceedings.

Von Glahn's team went to the Eighth Circuit Tuesday night. That court declined. They returned to Kavanaugh Wednesday afternoon with a 25-page filing, and this time he referred it to the full court. Attorney Abha Khanna told the justices Clark's order "has been in place for mere hours, but the chaos it guarantees has already taken root," and that leaving it in place would cause the disruption Purcell forbids "by subjecting election officials to irreconcilable judicial commands on the eve of an election, with a federal court inserting itself to wreak havoc on the State's elections."

Their central procedural argument: Clark lacked authority to act without convening a three-judge court, which federal law generally requires for constitutional challenges involving congressional apportionment.

What Thursday's order does and doesn't do

The order stays Clark's ruling - the second time the dispute reached the Supreme Court in a single week - and resolves nothing else. It does not decide standing, the three-judge-court question, or the merits. The stay holds while the appeal proceeds in the Eighth Circuit, and ends automatically if the justices decline to hear the case.

"The law is the law, the Missouri constitution is clear, as was the Missouri Supreme Court," von Glahn said in a statement, adding that Hoskins "has shown that he cannot effectively do the job he was elected to do."

Hoskins' lawyers had filed minutes before the ruling came down, warning that election authorities were already preparing ballots under the 2025 map and that switching back risked the Sept. 19 deadline for military and overseas ballots. The U.S. solicitor general joined the state in opposing the stay.

The order came the same morning Hoskins was due before the Missouri Supreme Court to argue why he should not be held in contempt over that Sept. 8 email. He had asked Clark to block the state proceeding. Clark declined.

Missouri's deadline to finalize general election ballots has already passed. Some counties paused work on congressional ballots entirely while others prepared the portions unaffected by the fight. Voters will decide the map itself in November as Proposition A. The first ballots go out Sept. 19.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 16:40
Tyler Durden

When Grievance Enters The Huddle

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
When Grievance Enters The Huddle

Authored by Andre Billeaudeaux via American Thinker,

The NAACP is asking some of America's best black high-school football players to consider withholding commitments from public universities in eight states because of congressional redistricting. Current athletes are encouraged to consider transferring and using their NIL platforms to support the cause. The slogan is direct: "No Representation. No Recruitment. No Revenue."

The campaign followed the Supreme Court's 6-3 decision striking down Louisiana's intentionally created second majority-black congressional district as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. Rather than leaving that dispute in the courthouse and statehouse, the NAACP is asking black athletes to carry it into their college choices, campuses, and locker rooms.

That is a heavy psychological load to place on a 17-year-old who may have spent a decade developing the talent, discipline, and confidence required to be recruited by Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Texas, or another major program. Universities want him, NIL money may follow, and the NFL may eventually follow that. At the moment when his talent has given him control over his future, he is being encouraged to see himself as a victim and act on that grievance.

Black Studies professor Elwood Watson called it "grossly irresponsible and unfair" to enlist young athletes in such a political fight, warning against turning them into "athletic guinea pigs or pawns." Educator Rann Miller questioned asking young black athletes to sacrifice NIL and career opportunities when comparable sacrifices are not being demanded from the adults asking them to join the fight.

Sports psychology supplies another warning: mental fatigue. It is not simply being tired, but a state associated with sustained cognitive demands, reduced cognitive efficiency, impaired attention, and increased perceived effort. The athlete's body may be capable of performing while his brain is required to process too much.

Now consider the NAACP's ask, particularly the age of the people being asked. Research following decision-making from adolescence into adulthood has found that younger people place greater value on immediate rewards and that the capacity for planning ahead continues developing into young adulthood. The NAACP is asking athletes at this stage to weigh immediate political and social rewards against educational, financial, and professional opportunities that may not fully materialize for years - maps, representation, family expectations, teammates, transferring, and whether to use his NIL identity politically - all while coaches try to get him to read a defense and execute the next play.

A 2026 BMC Psychology meta-analysis involving 19 study records found mental fatigue associated with poorer reaction time, technical execution, and decision-making. The measured effects were roughly one-half of a standard deviation for reaction time, six-tenths for technical performance and two-thirds for decision-making, where the results were the most consistent.

Elite athletic performance seeks the opposite condition: flow. Psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi described flow as complete absorption in an activity, where action and awareness merge, concentration intensifies and irrelevant thoughts are excluded. The athlete's attention is consumed by what he is doing now.

I was a student of Stanford psychologist Philip Zimbardo, who used Walter Mischel's famous marshmallow experiment to demonstrate the importance of time perspective. The child faced an immediate reward - one marshmallow now - or delayed gratification for two later. When researchers returned 14 years later, those who had resisted the immediate reward averaged 250 points higher on the SAT, got into less trouble and were described as better students, more self-confident, and determined. Zimbardo's point was that "they were future-focused rather than present-focused."

Put that against the NAACP's call. The immediate reward is obvious: take a stand, demonstrate solidarity, and receive the approval accompanying the cause. The delayed reward may be worth millions over a lifetime: choose the university and coach offering the best chance to develop talent, earn an education, maximize NIL value and perhaps reach the NFL.

The marshmallow has simply become considerably more expensive.

Elon Musk supplied the cultural shorthand "woke mind virus," warning against replacing individual "skills and integrity" with race and group identity and describing the constant injection of race into issues as "divisive and corrosive to society."

Former college coach Tommy Tuberville put the football problem this way: if a quarterback effectively takes himself out of the common mission, "that tends to tear down your team" and takes the "moral loyalty out of it." Before a game his players stood to honor America and afterward knelt to honor God. Coaches build common identity, loyalty and concentration because eleven individually talented players still have to perform as one.

Reverse that process - introduce distraction, immediate political reward, victimization and racial division - and then expect it to disappear when the ball is snapped.

Colin Kaepernick gave us an opportunity to see what happened next.

On August 26, 2016, Kaepernick sat during the national anthem before a preseason game against Green Bay, explaining that he would not stand for a flag representing a country that "oppresses black people and people of color." He subsequently began kneeling, turning an ordinary pre-game ritual into a national argument involving race, police and America.

The 49ers were already expected to be bad, with Las Vegas setting their preseason win total at only 5½ games. They finished 2-14, a 64% shortfall from that already miserable expectation. Kaepernick started eleven games and went 1-10, while his individual statistics - 16 touchdowns, four interceptions and a 90.7 passer rating - were hardly disastrous.

In 2015, the season before the kneeling controversy, San Francisco surrendered 387 points. By 2016 it finished 32nd in yards and points allowed, surrendering 480 points - 93 more than the previous season, a 24% increase. Kaepernick did not play defense, but his teammates shared the locker room, media attention, anthem controversy, and decisions about whether to participate, disagree or remain silent.

I began describing the phenomenon at the time as Self-Inflicted Degradation of Performance Syndrome, or SIDOPS - my term for grievance and resulting distraction degrading individual performance and spreading through a team's shared environment. Work I published in 2017 - 18 compared protesting teams against Vegas expectations and asked whether a victim-based mental state and social contagion might show up in athletic performance - years before the 2026 mental-fatigue research reported measurable degradation in reaction time, technical execution and decision-making.

"Hands Up, Don't Shoot" became a national rallying cry following the Michael Brown shooting in Ferguson, but Eric Holder's Justice Department later found no credible witness who could establish that Brown was shot while clearly surrendering. Witnesses supporting that account were contradicted by physical evidence, changed their accounts or recanted, while investigators found no eyewitness who said Brown uttered "don't shoot."

The slogan survived the facts, just as grievance can survive the event that created it.

Ten years later, Kaepernick says the NFL is still "actively blackballing" him and that he no longer watches professional football: "I watch college football."

Before the kneeling, Kaepernick had quarterbacked a Super Bowl team and earned a contract potentially worth more than $100 million. During the kneeling season he went 1-10 and never played another NFL game. Ten years later, he still describes himself as a victim of the league that once made him a star.

Now the NAACP is encouraging young black athletes to bring a similar grievance into decisions that may determine their own futures. Kaepernick's career cannot prove what SIDOPS predicts, but it provides a warning of what may follow.

Before asking another gifted young athlete to organize his future around grievance, look at the scoreboard - and remember what happened to the last quarterback who took a knee.

Image generated by ChatGPT.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 16:20
Tyler Durden

Fetterman Condemns Socialism In Surprise Video Message To GOP Convention

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Fetterman Condemns Socialism In Surprise Video Message To GOP Convention

Pennsylvania's Democratic senator made a surprise video appearance in Dallas on Wednesday night in front of a sea of Republicans at the GOP midterm convention.

In a short video message, Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) condemned the rise of socialist politicians in the United States and welcomed his Republican counterpart, Sen. Dave McCormick, as the next speaker for the event.

"Yes, I'm a Democrat. Why am I here talking to you today? Because, well, I'm a common sense Democrat," he told the crowd.

"I'm always going to stand with America. I'm always going to reject the extremes of socialism and that anti-American way of life."

As Troy Myers reports for The Epoch Times, Fetterman has, for years, distanced himself from socialist policies promoted by people in his own party. His Wednesday appearance stoked further speculation that he may leave the party altogether. Democrats and Republicans are vying for the majority in Congress in the midterm elections on Nov. 3.

If the Democrats wish to achieve that, they will need to flip four seats in the Senate and hope that Fetterman doesn't vote with Republicans or switch parties before he is up for reelection in 2028.

Fetterman described his close relationship - both professionally and personally - with McCormick, despite their being from opposite parties.

"Dave McCormick is the kind of senator that gets the job done, and he's going to fight for Pennsylvania," Fetterman said. "I'm proud to count him as my friend."

Standing in front of a Pennsylvania steel mill in his video, the Democratic senator reaffirmed his and McCormick's combined goals in working together, along with President Donald Trump, to boost the steel industry in their state.

"That's exactly the kind of thing that will work together and will work with President Trump to fight and defend: the steel way of life right here in the Steel Valley," Fetterman said.

As the notoriously casually dressed senator has distanced himself from his fellow Democrats in Congress, he's seen a boost in support from Republicans in his state.

In fact, a recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll found that Fetterman has more support among Pennsylvania Republicans than McCormick does.

The rift between Fetterman and his Democratic colleagues from other states has widened in recent years over his support for Israel. The Pennsylvania senator has maintained a staunch support for the country since the horrific Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas.

He has said he will leave the Democratic party if it ever officially adopts an anti-Israel position.

"If they put that in our platform - no aid for Israel - and officially become the anti-Israel party, then yeah, that's a red line for me," Fetterman told NBC News July 16. "Democrats, we always should support Israel. That's our special ally."

On July 27, he specifically distanced himself from progressives and socialists in the party's far-left wing.

"These people aren't Democrats. That's not a big tent situation," he told reporters.

Fetterman has also repeatedly voted with Republicans on major issues such as rejecting a war powers resolution on July 23 and July 30 to end U.S. military operations in Iran. On this topic, he was the only Democrat to join the majority on the other side of the aisle.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 15:40
Tyler Durden

Charlie Kirk Built A Conservative Institution. Can It Survive Him?

Zero Rss
2 weeks 4 days ago
Charlie Kirk Built A Conservative Institution. Can It Survive Him?

Authored by Brigham Tomco via Deseret News,

Just inside the Turning Point USA Freedom Center in Phoenix, Arizona, there is a gold-framed painting, about three feet tall, glowing in a warm spotlight mounted on the wall.

Captured mid-throw is Charlie Kirk, lobbing red and white MAGA caps into a mass of ecstatic students, cheering against the brilliant-blue backdrop of a September afternoon.

His outstretched arm pulls taut the word "FREEDOM" across his white T-shirt. Rendered in commemorative brushstrokes: the moment Kirk's "American Comeback Tour" arrived in Orem, Utah.

The same wall previously featured the faces of 36 Turning Point USA staffers who had showcased Kirk's signature "grassroots humility," "warrior spirit" and "persistent innovation."

Four of them were in attendance at Utah Valley University on Sept. 10, 2025, when their role model was ripped away in one of the most public acts of political violence in U.S. history.

Kirk's shocking absence continues to fill all six buildings at Turning Point headquarters.

His leather seat on the set of "The Charlie Kirk Show" sits permanently empty. On the glass table by his microphone rests a plush hand puppet and plastic moose positioned there by Kirk less than a month before he died so his two toddler-aged children would know he was thinking of them as they watched with their mother, Erika.

Charlie Kirk, Turning Point USA founder and president, answers interview questions on the set of The Charlie Kirk Show at Turning Point headquarters in Phoenix, Ariz., on Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025. | Kristin Murphy, Deseret News

Most days, the children still come by to play. Team members help with childcare while Erika works from the office her husband once used; his chair, again, intentionally left vacant.

For a while, Kirk's kids, now ages 4 and 2, got a new toy during every visit, chosen from a collection of gifts sent by well-wishers, affectionately called "daddy's friends," that took up entire rooms.

When I returned to Turning Point's campus in August the makeshift tribute had been moved for remodeling. A new eight-foot fence circled the perimeter of the nonprofit company's campus.

It was a year to the day since my first visit to Turning Point. In some ways it felt like entering a place frozen in amber. Enshrined memories converted every shelf into a time capsule.

As I came around a corner, I saw where Kirk stood a year ago after our interview beside a pair of front-page newspaper stories announcing the failed assassination attempt against President Donald Trump.

Now each department displays news clippings of Trump delivering Kirk's eulogy.

A museum-like reverence hung in the air. But around Kirk's empty chairs, team members pulsed with a restless determination to do everything they could to keep their founder's vision alive.

Tyler Bowyer, Turning Point Action chief operating officer, answers interview questions in his office at Turning Point headquarters in Phoenix, Ariz., on Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025. | Kristin Murphy, Deseret News

"You've got to prove that you can actually make an impact, that you can do things that we were working towards prior to his assassination," Turning Point Action COO Tyler Bowyer told me.

At Erika's insistence, Kirk's producers Andrew Kolvet and Blake Neff emerged from behind the scenes to take over his daily program, doing their best to opine on the issues as Kirk would if he were here.

Meanwhile, the political infrastructure Kirk told me was Turning Point's "lifeblood" has expanded at a pace Bowyer and Turning Point USA COO Justin Streiff are struggling to match amid maximum turnout at chapter leadership summits, record-breaking renewals for school chapters and a landslide GOP primary win in Arizona's gubernatorial election.

While Turning Point's activist machine remains a vehicle for the conservative empire Kirk built, it also finds itself at the nexus of forces tearing the American right apart in the wake of his death.

Charlie Kirk, Turning Point USA founder and president, talks with employees at Turning Point headquarters in Phoenix, Ariz., on Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025. | Kristin Murphy, Deseret News

In interviews with the Deseret News, the leaders at Turning Point recognized Kirk as irreplaceable. His influence was unique, they said, because it ran so much deeper than the political fights that made him famous. They hope his legacy will be quieter; a movement of strong marriages, big families and full churches; something akin to a revival.

It is not lost on them that this effect might be impossible to replicate. The void Kirk left can only be filled one way, they agreed: young people putting down their phones, and picking up the mic.

The Day Everything Changed Charlie Kirk speaks before he was shot during Turning Point USA’s visit to Utah Valley University in Orem on Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025. | Tess Crowley, Deseret News

It was an unusually warm 90 degrees in Orem as Kirk sat down beneath his trademark "prove me wrong" tent at the bottom of an outdoor amphitheater overflowing with around 3,000 fans and curious onlookers.

Back in 2018, when Kirk first decided that college debates would form the core of his youth outreach, he could barely turn out 300 students. By 2025, scenes of Kirk scoring viral clips on the quad were ubiquitous.

Kirk had just finished lowering his mic after clarifying a question from his interlocutor about gun violence when a "pop" rang out. The blood, and the chaos that followed, were immediately uploaded across the internet.

Read the rest from Deseret here... Meanwhile, as the Epoch Times notes further... 

Impact Reverberates

For many, Kirk’s death became the modern-day equivalent of the 1963 assassination of U.S. President John F. Kennedy - an unforgettable moment of intense personal and national significance.

“It was traumatic, I think, for the entire country - of all ages, but really for Gen Z and millennials,” Kolvet said. Those groups born after 1981 grew up watching Kirk’s videos on the internet, logging billions of views.

“After his death, it was almost like round two,” Kolvet said. “Everybody rediscovered all the videos again - and a wider audience did.”

Through debates and public speeches since early adulthood, Kirk became a driving force in U.S. politics. He was credited with lassoing young voters for Trump’s election wins in 2016 and 2024. He also had contact with foreign leaders, such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

His regular themes were faith in Jesus Christ, advocacy for traditional marriages and parenthood, and his belief that America is the greatest nation to ever exist.

The crowd reacts after Charlie Kirk was shot during Turning Point’s visit to Utah Valley University in Orem on Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025. | Tess Crowley, Deseret News

But Kirk’s blunt declarations about race, gender, and politics also stoked controversy. Defenders say Kirk debated passionately but civilly, and they alleged that some critics misconstrued his remarks.

Challenges loom for those continuing Kirk’s crusade. High on their list is building TPUSA further and educating younger voters about the dangers of socialism.

At the same time, pursuing justice and the truth about Kirk’s assassination have become part of the organization’s mission, too, Kolvet said.

TPUSA tries to ignore the conspiracy theories that still swirl, he said, dismissing those as “distractions.” But questions, as well as wild speculation, continue to be raised with each stage of the criminal case against alleged gunman Tyler Robinson.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance, a friend of Kirk, said during an Aug. 20 podcast that it “enrages” him when people make accusations implicating people close to Kirk such as his widow, who now heads TPUSA.

Prosecutors allege that Robinson, 23, assassinated Kirk over political differences. Yet Kirk had once stated: “We heal our divides by talking to people we disagree with. ... You heal the country when you allow disagreement.”

Turning Point Surges

Within weeks of Kirk’s slaying, 120,000 students inquired about starting a new Turning Point chapter, according to TPUSA.

Following that initial surge, growth has continued at a more manageable rate, Kolvet said, while still tallying large increases.

TPUSA reported a 300 percent jump in church partnerships, a 200 percent increase in Club America groups at high schools, and 64 percent more college chapters, he said.

More than 3,500 schools are represented, according to the group’s website.

A TPUSA women’s gathering drew 3,000 attendees to San Antonio in June.

The next month, a chapter leadership gathering in Washington attracted 2,500 young people. That was double the previous year’s total, Kolvet said, noting that two-thirds of those participants became involved with TPUSA after Kirk’s death.

More than 1,200 employees and 1 million donors - 95 percent of whom gave $1,000 or less - support the group’s activities, he said.

Kolvet cited other indirect trends that could reflect Kirk’s influence: surges in church attendance, baptisms, and Bible sales.

And across the nation, young people emulating Kirk’s “happy warrior” style sometimes make headlines. In Indiana, an angry woman confronted a 17-year-old girl who was sitting at a TPUSA table and handing out plain red, white, and blue bracelets.

Despite the woman hurling profanity and insults, the teen didn’t back down.

“There’s story after story like that,” Kolvet said. “It’s really inspiring. ... That’s an amazing legacy that just continues rolling on.”

Concerns as Midterms Approach

Longtime Florida political analyst Susan MacManus, a retired professor, said the aftermath of Kirk’s death did seem to “turn down the temperature” in politics—at first.

However, the atmosphere seems to be getting uglier again, she said, as the crucial Nov. 3 midterm elections approach.

All 435 U.S. House districts and 33 of the 50 Senate seats are up for grabs. Republicans now hold a slim majority in both chambers. If they lose too many races to Democrats in November, Trump’s second-term agenda could be greatly hampered.

“I’m fearful that we’re moving away from people trying to get along - and back toward the nastiness,” she said.

On one side, MacManus said, she sees people who “glorify” political violence or vitriol; on the other, people in “Kirk mode” are calling for “a more peaceful environment and dialog.”

She senses a strong commitment in the people who want to follow Kirk’s example and his “life model,” as well as his views on what constitutes good governance.

Many fans of Kirk adopted the slogan “I am Charlie,” showing that they were stepping up to fill the void left by his death.

“[They seem dedicated to] making sure that our voice is heard and that our way of doing politics is heard,” MacManus said. “And we won’t back down.”

Opposition Still Obvious

Try as they might, people who try to spread positive messaging have their work cut out for them in an election year, when inflammatory language seems to be on the rise, she said.

And TPUSA still sometimes encounters violent or disruptive opposition at its events.

At the June women’s summit in San Antonio, TPUSA’s video journalists documented police clashing with protesters outside the venue. They also reported that one person dressed like Kirk was mimicking his assassination.

Meanwhile, legislative attempts to honor Kirk have at times become political hot potatoes.

Although lawmakers in 20 states - chiefly Republicans - proposed Kirk-inspired laws, a designated “Charlie Kirk Day,” or physical memorials, many of the measures hit snags. While Democrats often joined Republicans in condemning Kirk’s assassination, they typically opposed honoring him.

Some of the proposals did succeed, such as a Kansas law allowing students to sue schools over interfering with free speech and a Tennessee law urging “the positive impacts of religion” to be taught in American history courses.

Carolina Estevez, a New Jersey psychologist, explained why pro- and anti-Kirk factions could both become more entrenched in their views.

“His death changed him from a political communicator to a political symbol, and symbols frequently last longer than arguments,” she said.

A political assassination such as Kirk’s “may increase in-group solidarity,” she said, noting that the victim may be seen as a symbol of “perceived threats” to the whole group.

Wildaliz Caro, a licensed clinical psychologist in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, said, “The continued influence of Charlie Kirk may well rely on collective memory.”

“After a leader dies, movements tend to simplify their image,” she said. “Complex individuals are now simply symbols of something much bigger: grievance, identity, or cause ... supporters respond not just to what he said, but to what he has come to mean.”

As a result, the opposing factions may have an even harder time relating to each other, Caro said.

Socratic Method

However, Kirk knew how to connect with different types of people.

“Charlie was a bridge-builder with the generations,” Kolvet said. “He could speak ‘Boomer,’ but he could speak Gen Z. ... He understood how to speak to donors and to the political class, but he understood how to speak to kids, too.”

Kirk decided against going to college. Instead, he schooled himself in religion, history, politics, and philosophy—forming the foundation for the way he lived and the way he approached debates.

“He created a model, a way to think about things, the way to argue through things, a way to defend our values in America, unapologetically, courageously, full-throated,” Kolvet said.

Kirk explained his methods in podcasts, including during an episode of The Charlie Kirk Show on Aug. 18, 2025—less than a month before he was killed.

A listener wanted to know how conservatives can talk to liberals without devolving into name-calling.

Kirk advised: “Always make sure they’re the ones freaking out ... and use the Socratic method.”

The method is named after the ancient Greek philosopher Socrates. After a person made an assertion, he would ask questions that eventually could reveal contradictions in the responder’s own logic.

Some people will refuse to change their minds no matter what. But others who seem to be staunch can be persuaded by using the Socratic method persistently “to get toward some approximation of truth,” Kirk said.

And, Kirk said, debaters ought to remember: “You’re not just debating a person. You’re performing for the audience of everyone else. And I try to do that at our prove-me-wrong events.”

Kirk seemed to have a special ability to inspire people who were open-minded and free thinkers, Kolvet said. Those people would walk away with “a fire in [their] belly that was just so contagious.”

Opposing Spread of Socialism

Through its Pick Up the Mic initiative, TPUSA is moving its founder’s legacy forward.

“Charlie Kirk built a movement from under a tent with one table, one mic, and a line of students stepping forward to debate. Now the tent is back, and a new generation of TPUSA chapters is bringing that presence to the center of campus,” the group’s website says, calling this “free speech in action.”

Kolvet predicted that 40 years from now, the “crop of young leaders that he inspired are going to go on and do great things, and they will be the firewall for freedom that this country needs.”

Before he died, Kirk made it clear to those leaders-in-training that they must stand firm against the spread of socialism.

“We’re doing our part to tell young people that free market capitalism is the most moral, proven, and effective system,” Kolvet said. “It’s lifted more people out of poverty across the world than any other economic system has.”

In contrast, socialism leads to stagnation, despair, and seizure of private property under communist rule—the antithesis of the American bedrock of “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”

“It’s tempting to go down this other path, but it doesn’t work, and that’s the problem,” Kolvet said. “And so, we are winning that debate with our people, but there’s a lot of people that still need to be reached and still need to hear that message.”

Justice for Kirk

Another important objective for TPUSA is fighting against “Charlie Kirk trutherism” - the rejection of officials’ accounts about what happened the day he was killed.

A “cottage industry” has sprung up around that skepticism, Kolvet said.

The antidote is for the justice system to handle the alleged gunman’s case properly and in the open, he said, noting, “Getting justice for Charlie is actually really, really important for the country.”

While it’s healthy to question government, “there has to be a foundation of rule of law, of justice, of facts, evidence, logic that undergirds all of our institutions,” he said.

Pursuing justice for Kirk “feels like a battle for truth itself,” Kolvet said.

“It’s part of a larger mission of fighting for the country. ... We want to make sure that we don’t lose all faith in our institutions, right?” he said.

Balancing all those considerations is challenging, but Kolvet said he believes that “God is doing a work through Charlie’s life.”

“Charlie’s life will continue to be one of the most important and pivotal expressions of God’s providential hand on this country for years to come,” he said.

“And I believe, on some level, I’m comforted by the fact that, yes, we can choose to be a part of that.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 15:20
Tyler Durden

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