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Fetterman Condemns Socialism In Surprise Video Message To GOP Convention

Pennsylvania's Democratic senator made a surprise video appearance in Dallas on Wednesday night in front of a sea of Republicans at the GOP midterm convention.

In a short video message, Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) condemned the rise of socialist politicians in the United States and welcomed his Republican counterpart, Sen. Dave McCormick, as the next speaker for the event.

"Yes, I'm a Democrat. Why am I here talking to you today? Because, well, I'm a common sense Democrat," he told the crowd.

"I'm always going to stand with America. I'm always going to reject the extremes of socialism and that anti-American way of life."

As Troy Myers reports for The Epoch Times, Fetterman has, for years, distanced himself from socialist policies promoted by people in his own party. His Wednesday appearance stoked further speculation that he may leave the party altogether. Democrats and Republicans are vying for the majority in Congress in the midterm elections on Nov. 3.

If the Democrats wish to achieve that, they will need to flip four seats in the Senate and hope that Fetterman doesn't vote with Republicans or switch parties before he is up for reelection in 2028.

Fetterman described his close relationship - both professionally and personally - with McCormick, despite their being from opposite parties.

"Dave McCormick is the kind of senator that gets the job done, and he's going to fight for Pennsylvania," Fetterman said. "I'm proud to count him as my friend."

Standing in front of a Pennsylvania steel mill in his video, the Democratic senator reaffirmed his and McCormick's combined goals in working together, along with President Donald Trump, to boost the steel industry in their state.

"That's exactly the kind of thing that will work together and will work with President Trump to fight and defend: the steel way of life right here in the Steel Valley," Fetterman said.

As the notoriously casually dressed senator has distanced himself from his fellow Democrats in Congress, he's seen a boost in support from Republicans in his state.

In fact, a recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll found that Fetterman has more support among Pennsylvania Republicans than McCormick does.

The rift between Fetterman and his Democratic colleagues from other states has widened in recent years over his support for Israel. The Pennsylvania senator has maintained a staunch support for the country since the horrific Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas.

He has said he will leave the Democratic party if it ever officially adopts an anti-Israel position.

"If they put that in our platform - no aid for Israel - and officially become the anti-Israel party, then yeah, that's a red line for me," Fetterman told NBC News July 16. "Democrats, we always should support Israel. That's our special ally."

On July 27, he specifically distanced himself from progressives and socialists in the party's far-left wing.

"These people aren't Democrats. That's not a big tent situation," he told reporters.

Fetterman has also repeatedly voted with Republicans on major issues such as rejecting a war powers resolution on July 23 and July 30 to end U.S. military operations in Iran. On this topic, he was the only Democrat to join the majority on the other side of the aisle.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 15:40

Charlie Kirk Built A Conservative Institution. Can It Survive Him?

Authored by Brigham Tomco via Deseret News,

Just inside the Turning Point USA Freedom Center in Phoenix, Arizona, there is a gold-framed painting, about three feet tall, glowing in a warm spotlight mounted on the wall.

Captured mid-throw is Charlie Kirk, lobbing red and white MAGA caps into a mass of ecstatic students, cheering against the brilliant-blue backdrop of a September afternoon.

His outstretched arm pulls taut the word "FREEDOM" across his white T-shirt. Rendered in commemorative brushstrokes: the moment Kirk's "American Comeback Tour" arrived in Orem, Utah.

The same wall previously featured the faces of 36 Turning Point USA staffers who had showcased Kirk's signature "grassroots humility," "warrior spirit" and "persistent innovation."

Four of them were in attendance at Utah Valley University on Sept. 10, 2025, when their role model was ripped away in one of the most public acts of political violence in U.S. history.

Kirk's shocking absence continues to fill all six buildings at Turning Point headquarters.

His leather seat on the set of "The Charlie Kirk Show" sits permanently empty. On the glass table by his microphone rests a plush hand puppet and plastic moose positioned there by Kirk less than a month before he died so his two toddler-aged children would know he was thinking of them as they watched with their mother, Erika.

Charlie Kirk, Turning Point USA founder and president, answers interview questions on the set of The Charlie Kirk Show at Turning Point headquarters in Phoenix, Ariz., on Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025. | Kristin Murphy, Deseret News

Most days, the children still come by to play. Team members help with childcare while Erika works from the office her husband once used; his chair, again, intentionally left vacant.

For a while, Kirk's kids, now ages 4 and 2, got a new toy during every visit, chosen from a collection of gifts sent by well-wishers, affectionately called "daddy's friends," that took up entire rooms.

When I returned to Turning Point's campus in August the makeshift tribute had been moved for remodeling. A new eight-foot fence circled the perimeter of the nonprofit company's campus.

It was a year to the day since my first visit to Turning Point. In some ways it felt like entering a place frozen in amber. Enshrined memories converted every shelf into a time capsule.

As I came around a corner, I saw where Kirk stood a year ago after our interview beside a pair of front-page newspaper stories announcing the failed assassination attempt against President Donald Trump.

Now each department displays news clippings of Trump delivering Kirk's eulogy.

A museum-like reverence hung in the air. But around Kirk's empty chairs, team members pulsed with a restless determination to do everything they could to keep their founder's vision alive.

Tyler Bowyer, Turning Point Action chief operating officer, answers interview questions in his office at Turning Point headquarters in Phoenix, Ariz., on Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025. | Kristin Murphy, Deseret News

"You've got to prove that you can actually make an impact, that you can do things that we were working towards prior to his assassination," Turning Point Action COO Tyler Bowyer told me.

At Erika's insistence, Kirk's producers Andrew Kolvet and Blake Neff emerged from behind the scenes to take over his daily program, doing their best to opine on the issues as Kirk would if he were here.

Meanwhile, the political infrastructure Kirk told me was Turning Point's "lifeblood" has expanded at a pace Bowyer and Turning Point USA COO Justin Streiff are struggling to match amid maximum turnout at chapter leadership summits, record-breaking renewals for school chapters and a landslide GOP primary win in Arizona's gubernatorial election.

While Turning Point's activist machine remains a vehicle for the conservative empire Kirk built, it also finds itself at the nexus of forces tearing the American right apart in the wake of his death.

Charlie Kirk, Turning Point USA founder and president, talks with employees at Turning Point headquarters in Phoenix, Ariz., on Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025. | Kristin Murphy, Deseret News

In interviews with the Deseret News, the leaders at Turning Point recognized Kirk as irreplaceable. His influence was unique, they said, because it ran so much deeper than the political fights that made him famous. They hope his legacy will be quieter; a movement of strong marriages, big families and full churches; something akin to a revival.

It is not lost on them that this effect might be impossible to replicate. The void Kirk left can only be filled one way, they agreed: young people putting down their phones, and picking up the mic.

The Day Everything Changed Charlie Kirk speaks before he was shot during Turning Point USA’s visit to Utah Valley University in Orem on Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025. | Tess Crowley, Deseret News

It was an unusually warm 90 degrees in Orem as Kirk sat down beneath his trademark "prove me wrong" tent at the bottom of an outdoor amphitheater overflowing with around 3,000 fans and curious onlookers.

Back in 2018, when Kirk first decided that college debates would form the core of his youth outreach, he could barely turn out 300 students. By 2025, scenes of Kirk scoring viral clips on the quad were ubiquitous.

Kirk had just finished lowering his mic after clarifying a question from his interlocutor about gun violence when a "pop" rang out. The blood, and the chaos that followed, were immediately uploaded across the internet.

Read the rest from Deseret here... Meanwhile, as the Epoch Times notes further... 

Impact Reverberates

For many, Kirk’s death became the modern-day equivalent of the 1963 assassination of U.S. President John F. Kennedy - an unforgettable moment of intense personal and national significance.

“It was traumatic, I think, for the entire country - of all ages, but really for Gen Z and millennials,” Kolvet said. Those groups born after 1981 grew up watching Kirk’s videos on the internet, logging billions of views.

“After his death, it was almost like round two,” Kolvet said. “Everybody rediscovered all the videos again - and a wider audience did.”

Through debates and public speeches since early adulthood, Kirk became a driving force in U.S. politics. He was credited with lassoing young voters for Trump’s election wins in 2016 and 2024. He also had contact with foreign leaders, such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

His regular themes were faith in Jesus Christ, advocacy for traditional marriages and parenthood, and his belief that America is the greatest nation to ever exist.

The crowd reacts after Charlie Kirk was shot during Turning Point’s visit to Utah Valley University in Orem on Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025. | Tess Crowley, Deseret News

But Kirk’s blunt declarations about race, gender, and politics also stoked controversy. Defenders say Kirk debated passionately but civilly, and they alleged that some critics misconstrued his remarks.

Challenges loom for those continuing Kirk’s crusade. High on their list is building TPUSA further and educating younger voters about the dangers of socialism.

At the same time, pursuing justice and the truth about Kirk’s assassination have become part of the organization’s mission, too, Kolvet said.

TPUSA tries to ignore the conspiracy theories that still swirl, he said, dismissing those as “distractions.” But questions, as well as wild speculation, continue to be raised with each stage of the criminal case against alleged gunman Tyler Robinson.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance, a friend of Kirk, said during an Aug. 20 podcast that it “enrages” him when people make accusations implicating people close to Kirk such as his widow, who now heads TPUSA.

Prosecutors allege that Robinson, 23, assassinated Kirk over political differences. Yet Kirk had once stated: “We heal our divides by talking to people we disagree with. ... You heal the country when you allow disagreement.”

Turning Point Surges

Within weeks of Kirk’s slaying, 120,000 students inquired about starting a new Turning Point chapter, according to TPUSA.

Following that initial surge, growth has continued at a more manageable rate, Kolvet said, while still tallying large increases.

TPUSA reported a 300 percent jump in church partnerships, a 200 percent increase in Club America groups at high schools, and 64 percent more college chapters, he said.

More than 3,500 schools are represented, according to the group’s website.

A TPUSA women’s gathering drew 3,000 attendees to San Antonio in June.

The next month, a chapter leadership gathering in Washington attracted 2,500 young people. That was double the previous year’s total, Kolvet said, noting that two-thirds of those participants became involved with TPUSA after Kirk’s death.

More than 1,200 employees and 1 million donors - 95 percent of whom gave $1,000 or less - support the group’s activities, he said.

Kolvet cited other indirect trends that could reflect Kirk’s influence: surges in church attendance, baptisms, and Bible sales.

And across the nation, young people emulating Kirk’s “happy warrior” style sometimes make headlines. In Indiana, an angry woman confronted a 17-year-old girl who was sitting at a TPUSA table and handing out plain red, white, and blue bracelets.

Despite the woman hurling profanity and insults, the teen didn’t back down.

“There’s story after story like that,” Kolvet said. “It’s really inspiring. ... That’s an amazing legacy that just continues rolling on.”

Concerns as Midterms Approach

Longtime Florida political analyst Susan MacManus, a retired professor, said the aftermath of Kirk’s death did seem to “turn down the temperature” in politics—at first.

However, the atmosphere seems to be getting uglier again, she said, as the crucial Nov. 3 midterm elections approach.

All 435 U.S. House districts and 33 of the 50 Senate seats are up for grabs. Republicans now hold a slim majority in both chambers. If they lose too many races to Democrats in November, Trump’s second-term agenda could be greatly hampered.

“I’m fearful that we’re moving away from people trying to get along - and back toward the nastiness,” she said.

On one side, MacManus said, she sees people who “glorify” political violence or vitriol; on the other, people in “Kirk mode” are calling for “a more peaceful environment and dialog.”

She senses a strong commitment in the people who want to follow Kirk’s example and his “life model,” as well as his views on what constitutes good governance.

Many fans of Kirk adopted the slogan “I am Charlie,” showing that they were stepping up to fill the void left by his death.

“[They seem dedicated to] making sure that our voice is heard and that our way of doing politics is heard,” MacManus said. “And we won’t back down.”

Opposition Still Obvious

Try as they might, people who try to spread positive messaging have their work cut out for them in an election year, when inflammatory language seems to be on the rise, she said.

And TPUSA still sometimes encounters violent or disruptive opposition at its events.

At the June women’s summit in San Antonio, TPUSA’s video journalists documented police clashing with protesters outside the venue. They also reported that one person dressed like Kirk was mimicking his assassination.

Meanwhile, legislative attempts to honor Kirk have at times become political hot potatoes.

Although lawmakers in 20 states - chiefly Republicans - proposed Kirk-inspired laws, a designated “Charlie Kirk Day,” or physical memorials, many of the measures hit snags. While Democrats often joined Republicans in condemning Kirk’s assassination, they typically opposed honoring him.

Some of the proposals did succeed, such as a Kansas law allowing students to sue schools over interfering with free speech and a Tennessee law urging “the positive impacts of religion” to be taught in American history courses.

Carolina Estevez, a New Jersey psychologist, explained why pro- and anti-Kirk factions could both become more entrenched in their views.

“His death changed him from a political communicator to a political symbol, and symbols frequently last longer than arguments,” she said.

A political assassination such as Kirk’s “may increase in-group solidarity,” she said, noting that the victim may be seen as a symbol of “perceived threats” to the whole group.

Wildaliz Caro, a licensed clinical psychologist in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, said, “The continued influence of Charlie Kirk may well rely on collective memory.”

“After a leader dies, movements tend to simplify their image,” she said. “Complex individuals are now simply symbols of something much bigger: grievance, identity, or cause ... supporters respond not just to what he said, but to what he has come to mean.”

As a result, the opposing factions may have an even harder time relating to each other, Caro said.

Socratic Method

However, Kirk knew how to connect with different types of people.

“Charlie was a bridge-builder with the generations,” Kolvet said. “He could speak ‘Boomer,’ but he could speak Gen Z. ... He understood how to speak to donors and to the political class, but he understood how to speak to kids, too.”

Kirk decided against going to college. Instead, he schooled himself in religion, history, politics, and philosophy—forming the foundation for the way he lived and the way he approached debates.

“He created a model, a way to think about things, the way to argue through things, a way to defend our values in America, unapologetically, courageously, full-throated,” Kolvet said.

Kirk explained his methods in podcasts, including during an episode of The Charlie Kirk Show on Aug. 18, 2025—less than a month before he was killed.

A listener wanted to know how conservatives can talk to liberals without devolving into name-calling.

Kirk advised: “Always make sure they’re the ones freaking out ... and use the Socratic method.”

The method is named after the ancient Greek philosopher Socrates. After a person made an assertion, he would ask questions that eventually could reveal contradictions in the responder’s own logic.

Some people will refuse to change their minds no matter what. But others who seem to be staunch can be persuaded by using the Socratic method persistently “to get toward some approximation of truth,” Kirk said.

And, Kirk said, debaters ought to remember: “You’re not just debating a person. You’re performing for the audience of everyone else. And I try to do that at our prove-me-wrong events.”

Kirk seemed to have a special ability to inspire people who were open-minded and free thinkers, Kolvet said. Those people would walk away with “a fire in [their] belly that was just so contagious.”

Opposing Spread of Socialism

Through its Pick Up the Mic initiative, TPUSA is moving its founder’s legacy forward.

“Charlie Kirk built a movement from under a tent with one table, one mic, and a line of students stepping forward to debate. Now the tent is back, and a new generation of TPUSA chapters is bringing that presence to the center of campus,” the group’s website says, calling this “free speech in action.”

Kolvet predicted that 40 years from now, the “crop of young leaders that he inspired are going to go on and do great things, and they will be the firewall for freedom that this country needs.”

Before he died, Kirk made it clear to those leaders-in-training that they must stand firm against the spread of socialism.

“We’re doing our part to tell young people that free market capitalism is the most moral, proven, and effective system,” Kolvet said. “It’s lifted more people out of poverty across the world than any other economic system has.”

In contrast, socialism leads to stagnation, despair, and seizure of private property under communist rule—the antithesis of the American bedrock of “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”

“It’s tempting to go down this other path, but it doesn’t work, and that’s the problem,” Kolvet said. “And so, we are winning that debate with our people, but there’s a lot of people that still need to be reached and still need to hear that message.”

Justice for Kirk

Another important objective for TPUSA is fighting against “Charlie Kirk trutherism” - the rejection of officials’ accounts about what happened the day he was killed.

A “cottage industry” has sprung up around that skepticism, Kolvet said.

The antidote is for the justice system to handle the alleged gunman’s case properly and in the open, he said, noting, “Getting justice for Charlie is actually really, really important for the country.”

While it’s healthy to question government, “there has to be a foundation of rule of law, of justice, of facts, evidence, logic that undergirds all of our institutions,” he said.

Pursuing justice for Kirk “feels like a battle for truth itself,” Kolvet said.

“It’s part of a larger mission of fighting for the country. ... We want to make sure that we don’t lose all faith in our institutions, right?” he said.

Balancing all those considerations is challenging, but Kolvet said he believes that “God is doing a work through Charlie’s life.”

“Charlie’s life will continue to be one of the most important and pivotal expressions of God’s providential hand on this country for years to come,” he said.

“And I believe, on some level, I’m comforted by the fact that, yes, we can choose to be a part of that.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 15:20

Melania Trump's Team Finally Breaks Silence On Natalie Harp Frenzy

A key advisor to First Lady Melania Trump has broken his silence against the nonstop media frenzy surrounding President Donald Trump and loyal White House aide Natalie Harp.

Evan Vucci/Reuters/Aaron Schwarz/Getty Images

The speculation, circulating for weeks across mainstream and tabloid outlets, concerns whether Trump's working relationship with the 35-year-old aide exceeds professional norms - fueled by Harp's near-constant presence at his side in the Oval Office, at public events and on weekend golf outings, and by the first lady's own scarcity. Melania has appeared in public on roughly 40 days this year, regularly skipping events her husband attends.

Marc Beckman, exclusive senior advisor to the first lady, didn't mince words in an interview released Wednesday, Sept. 9 on host Stella Escobedo's YouTube show, the Daily Mail reports.

Escobedo set up the question by accusing the press of being "endlessly obsessed with garbage tabloid gossip of Natalie Harp, who, by the way, is a hardworking White House aide to President Trump, a cancer survivor who POTUS helped get off label treatment for and saved her life."

"The liberal media is ridiculous," Beckman said. "They don't know anything about the first lady's personal and private life. They don't even take the time to put us on air to cover these incredible achievements that our first lady has accomplished."

First Lady Melania Trump’s exclusive senior advisor, @MarcBeckman, responds to tabloid gossip about White House aide Natalie Harp.

MSM would rather focus on gossip than cover our First Lady’s real achievements helping America’s youth. pic.twitter.com/FXl1HQzRPK

— Stella Escobedo (@StellaEscoTV) September 9, 2026

Beckman then defended Harp and blasted the press for its obsession with tabloid-style rumors about the Trump family instead of real reporting.

"What they need to do is look in the mirror because they're all attacking this hardworking, very talented, very intelligent person in Natalie Harp," he said. "And they're obsessed with the gossip about this first family. And I can tell you firsthand that it's time for them to become journalists and stop looking at the gossip."

Harp, the 35-year-old special assistant to President Trump, has spent years flying under the radar as one of the president's most constant aides. Insiders call her the "human printer" because she packs a portable printer everywhere, churning out hard copies of news articles, social-media posts and anything else Trump wants to see on paper, according to the anti-Trump publication The Bulwark.

Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

That low profile shattered last month when Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) name-dropped her at a Georgia campaign rally, accusing Trump of preferring to "build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the Emir of Qatar" rather than fully attend to his official duties.

"The media doesn't know about the first lady's private life. Period. The media doesn't know about the first family's life. Period," Beckman added. "And what they do is they harp on the issues of gossip rather than going ahead and covering the substantial achievements that this First Lady and the President also have conducted during this past year and a half."

It is the second time in three weeks Beckman has been deployed to answer for the first lady. Last month he went on "Fox & Friends" to explain why Melania had publicly denied any connection to Jeffrey Epstein, saying she had decided "enough is enough" and had "debunked all of the lies surrounding her and Epstein." The pitch was the same then as now: cover the accomplishments, drop the rumors.

Harp first caught Trump's eye in 2019 when she publicly credited his Right to Try legislation with opening the door to experimental treatment for bone cancer, the New York Times reports. She spoke at the 2020 Republican National Convention, worked at One America News from 2020 to 2022, and joined the campaign before moving to the White House staff.

Beckman's remarks come after Trump gave sizable holiday gifts to four White House aides, including Harp, according to new financial disclosures released by the administration.

The gifts of $45,000 each to Harp, communications adviser Margo Martin, and deputy director of Oval Office operations Chamberlain Harris - as well as a $20,000 gift for director of Oval Office operations Walt Nauta - were noted in the staffers' annual financial disclosure forms published by the administration last week. The payments have drawn ethical and legal scrutiny over whether a president can make personal cash gifts of that size to his own employees.

Watch the entire interview below:

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 15:00

Trump Warns 'Activity' Seen At Iran's Pickaxe Mountain Nuclear Site: 'Don't Get Cute'

This week there's been more mainstream reporting and chatter centered on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain. The nuclear development site has been of special interest and focus to the Trump administration due to how immensely fortified it is, meaning the Iranians can conduct uranium enrichment activities deep under the mountain if they so desire.

The US and IAEA are essentially operating blind on this, and that's exactly how the Iranians want it of course. A Thursday Bloomberg report begins: "The United Nations atomic watchdog said it’s observed construction activity at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, a heavily-fortified site suspected of housing nuclear-related activities."

Vantor/Reuters

It should be noted that Tehran has long complained that IAEA officials have leaked sensitive information to Israeli spies and leaders. The Iranians see it as a compromised organization.

Bloomberg continues, also referencing its own prior reporting: "The International Atomic Energy Agency has yet to inspect inside the tunnel complex but remote imagery indicates new movement at the site just south of Tehran’s main uranium-enrichment plant, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg Television."

President Trump has on at least two occasions drawn attention to the new reporting this week.

"We notice there’s a little activity at Pickaxe. I would advise Iran not ‌to get ‌cute because we ‌will have to hit them very hard," Trump said in a speech at Wednesday night's midterm Republican convention.

Before this, Trump has threatened major attack on the mountain, though some pundits and analysts have speculated that it would take nothing less than dropping a tactical nuke in order to destroy or at least severely damage the fortification.

Some crazy hawks appear to lately be calling for just such a nuclear escalation from Washington, amid persisting frustration over fierce Iranian resistance and lack of 'options' the Trump administration has left itself with, also with negotiations at this point appearing totally abandoned.

Pentagon build Iran NUCLEAR PICKAXE MOUNTAIN in New Mexico

'ONILY NUKE can damage facility' — Iran Observer pic.twitter.com/M0H6oBlepx

— RT (@RT_com) September 10, 2026

Trump's Wednesday warning to Tehran was coupled with this surprising statement about the war extending to after the November midterm elections: "I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer," the president told reporters.

He has continued to warn - amid growing public pushback over an unpopular extended war - that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. However even the CIA has long assessed that there's no clear or high-level evidence that Tehran is actually bent on achieving weapons status. But if anything, the war itself may have pushed the country in the direction of getting a nuke.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 14:20

Head Of Blackstone's Real Estate Group Abandons Ship After Less Than A Year

 Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

The Incentive To Stay, The Psychology Of Leaving

Head of Real Estate Nadeem Meghji is leaving Blackstone less than a year after taking sole control of its real-estate business, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal.

The official explanation is a desire to spend more time with family. That may be entirely true. But when the head of one of the world’s largest real-estate investment businesses decides to leave after nearly two decades, and less than a year of becoming the boss of real estate, I think investors are entitled to wonder whether the timing tells us something.

His departure follows that of former co-head Kathleen McCarthy in 2025 and comes amid a broader turnover of senior real-estate executives over the past several years. Blackstone has named David Levine and Giovanni Cutaia as his successors, emphasizing the depth and continuity of its leadership bench.

Now that the corporate line is out of the way, the question the ole’ Q-Man finds interesting is this: why leave now, after just being promoted to a position you’ve ostensibly worked your entire career for? Surely when Meghji began low on the totem pole at Blackstone the goal was to find himself at the top of management, reaping all the perks that come with it. So why stay for less than a year?

The company line could be all there is to it. He could just want to spend more time with family. That’s a commendable aspiration as well. But just from a human psychology standpoint, people generally do not leave extraordinarily lucrative jobs when they believe the next few years are about to be the best few years of their careers. They can, and there are legitimate personal reasons to do so. But the financial incentives at this level are enormous.

If an executive believes the business is about to enter a spectacular upswing, with compensation and equity awards potentially worth millions more, walking away becomes a much more expensive decision. Look, family is important….so is millions more in compensation you can use to take care of said family.

I am not suggesting Meghji is forfeiting a specific amount of money. I have no knowledge of his personal finances or the terms of his departure. The point is simply that basic human psychology dictates to me that senior executives understand the value of staying through a major recovery. If they believe the next leg higher is right around the corner, the incentive to remain is usually substantial. BREIT’s investor material suggests there is a long track ahead of recovery for real estate:

There is another reason the timing catches my attention: executives also tend to find it difficult to leave during the absolute worst moments of a crisis. Departing while a business is visibly on fire can look like abandoning ship, particularly when employees, investors and clients are looking for leadership.

The more natural window is often after the immediate emergency has passed, when conditions have stabilized enough that a departure can be presented as an orderly transition.

It could be argued that this “eye of the storm” is where Blackstone’s real-estate business is today. BREIT, the firm’s giant nontraded real-estate investment trust, endured a prolonged redemption crisis beginning in late 2022. Investors wanted their money back faster than the fund could comfortably provide it, and withdrawals were restricted for more than a year.

Those pressures have since eased. According to the Journal, BREIT began meeting all redemption requests in early 2024, recorded its first positive quarterly net inflow in four years during the second quarter of 2026, and delivered an 11% net return over the past 12 months.

Those are meaningful improvements. Why leave at a point where BREIT appears to finally have stabilized and potentially be on an upswing?

I have to ask: what if BREIT is sitting in the eye of the storm rather than safely on the other side of it. The first phase of the real-estate problem was obvious: rates rose, property values came under pressure, financing became more expensive and investors wanted liquidity. The next phase could be more complicated, particularly if interest rates remain elevated and the private-credit problems I have been writing about begin to feed back into commercial real estate.

Real estate is a leveraged asset class. Higher financing costs do not disappear simply because a fund reports a positive return or redemption requests normalize. Loans still mature. Properties still need refinancing. Borrowers still have to justify valuations against a cost of capital that may be materially higher than the one prevailing when many of these investments were made. And now we’re talking about rate hikes instead of rate cuts (though tomorrow’s CPI report will give us more clarity on that).

And then there’s the fact that days ago it was reported that Blackstone’s BCRED private credit fund had to limit redemption requests at 5% of shares outstanding after receiving repurchase requests for ~10% of its shares outstanding.

Private credit, which has been falling apart for the better part of the last 12-18 months, is not some unrelated corner of the financial system. It is increasingly part of the machinery financing businesses and assets across the economy. If credit conditions tighten, lenders become more selective or investors begin demanding liquidity from private vehicles, the consequences can spill into real estate through refinancing availability, transaction volumes and asset prices.

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That does not mean BREIT is about to experience another redemption crisis. It does mean that a period of relative calm should not automatically be confused with a durable recovery. And it means that the private credit portion of Blackstone’s business is worth watching closely.

Blackstone, of course, has enormous resources and a long history of making money during dislocations. The firm manages more than $600 billion in real-estate assets, and its investing BREP funds have substantial capital available. A difficult market can create opportunities for a manager with that kind of scale. But there is a difference between saying Blackstone can eventually profit from distress and saying the next couple of years will necessarily be easy for its existing portfolio.

That distinction matters when evaluating the departure of the person who has been running the business. I am not claiming Meghji is leaving because he sees something bad coming. I do not know that, and the publicly reported facts do not establish it. His stated personal reasons may be exactly what they appear to be. The departure does not, in and of itself, prove anything about BREIT’s valuations, liquidity or future returns.

But I’ll reserve my right to not reflexively dismiss the timing as meaningless. And I’ll also reserve my right fall back on the basics of incentives and psychology.

Whether it means something or not, a senior executive leaving after a long career, shortly after assuming sole leadership, following a period of industry distress and amid an uncertain refinancing environment is a development worth a second mention. The fact that the business has recently stabilized makes the timing more interesting, not less.

Maybe Meghji simply decided he had made enough money and wanted to enjoy his life. Good for him if that is the case. But if I were an investor trying to decide whether commercial real estate was about to enter a new golden age, I would not look at the departure of Blackstone’s real-estate chief and conclude that it was an obvious vote of confidence.

I’ll pass on one thing I’ve learned in my two decades following Wall Street, including a decade working on short/skeptical research. Sometimes the most important thing an executive tells you isn’t what the PR/IR team writes for him or her to say in an official statement on the way out. It’s that they decided now was the time to leave in the first place.

*  *  *

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 14:00

Record-Breaking 30Y Auction Sees Huge Stop Through, 2nd Highest Foreign Demand On Record

One day after a blowout 10Y auction, which saw massive buyside demand thanks to the surge in yields earlier after the Bessent buyback disappointed which led to a huge concession into yesterday';s 10Y auction, moments ago we got the week's final coupon auctio when the Treasury sold $22BN in 30Y paper in an auction that was on the verge of blowing away many records.

Starting at the top, the auction priced at a high yield of 5.308%, up from 5.212% in August and the 5th consecutive 30Y auction pricing above 5%. It was also the highest yield going back all the way to August 2001. Just as notably, the auction stopped through the When Issued 5.335% by a whopping 2.7bps, the second highest stop through on record!

The bid to cover was likely impressive, surging to 2.612 from 2.392, the highest going back to February. 

The internals were even more impressive: Indirects were awarded a whopping 79.5%, up from 66.9% in August and the second highest on record (only Oct 2024 was higher).

And with Directs roughly in line at 18.3%, down from 21.6% (and below the 22.1% recent average), Dealers were left holding just 2.21%, down from 11.51%, and the lowest on record by a huge margin.

Overall, this was not only a stellar auction, but was perhaps the 2nd strongest 30Y auction on record. And yet, while yields across the curve did dip after the blockbuster auction results hit, the selloff has promptly resumed and 10Y yields are once again pushing wider, set to take out a new multi-year high as they near Bessent's red line of 5.00%

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 13:36

Tate Brothers To Remain In Custody As They Fight Extradition To UK, Judge Rules

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

Social media influencers and brothers Andrew and Tristan Tate will remain in U.S. custody, a magistrate judge ruled on Wednesday, as they continue to fight their extradition to the United Kingdom on rape and sex trafficking charges.

In a surprise move during a custody hearing on Aug. 27, both brothers took the stand to argue for their release, claiming they were suffering egregious conditions in a Miami holding facility while denying the allegations against them. The Tates face similar accusations in Romania.

U.S. Magistrate Judge Lauren Louis presided over that August hearing and issued the ruling Wednesday.

"There is a well-established presumption against bond in extradition proceedings, reflecting among other interests the value the United States places on fulfilling its obligations under international law to a country requesting extradition," she wrote in her order.

One of the Tates' attorneys, Joseph McBride, said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times that the brothers have not been convicted of any crime nor has Britain formally requested their extradition, yet they are being treated as criminals left to "rot" in federal custody.

"The process is the punishment," McBride said.

"This is the cold machinery of extradition: rules and deadlines move forward with deliberate indifference to the human lives caught inside them."

According to extradition law, the UK is allowed 60 days from the time of the Tates' arrest to formally submit an extradition request and supporting evidence to the alleged crimes. The time limit expires next week.

When hearing extradition cases, circuit and district courts apply the "special circumstances" test to determine whether a defendant should be granted release.

Unlike in a U.S. criminal case, where the government has the burden of proving a defendant is a flight risk, that task falls to the accused in foreign extradition proceedings. This means the Tate brothers and their lawyers had to prove they are not a flight risk, not a danger to the community, and that special circumstances exist to warrant their release.

The Tates testified, alongside their legal team, which argued the brothers are not flight risks because of their "perfect" track record for complying with their Romanian release conditions.

Department of Justice (DOJ) prosecutors pushed back on this argument, claiming that a perfect track record of compliance with criminal proceedings is not an impressive feat - rather, it's expected and should not be considered as a special circumstance.

The brothers also claimed their vast wealth has been seized by the Romanian government, which they said has taken everything down to their children's toys.

The Tates said on the stand about their viral online comments, referencing their self-proclaimed billionaire status, ownership of luxury cars and a super-yacht, and access to unrestricted funds, that it's all merely part of the characters they portray on social media for clicks.

Andrew called his online statements "hyperbolic exaggerations for comedic effect." Tristan referred to his brother's "Top G" persona simply as an alter ego as a means to make a living.

"My brother is the only person in the world held accountable for a character he portrays," Tristan testified about Andrew.

Louis appeared to accept in her order the Tates' claims that they are not billionaires, but said it does "little to dispel the concerns" that they are still a flight risk.

"While [the brothers] may not in fact possess what extravagant holdings they portray themselves as possessing online, the record reflects that they possess an exceptional capacity to flee the jurisdiction," Louis wrote.

The judge pointed to the testimony of Andrew's romantic partner, Natasha Sesay from the Aug. 27 hearing, when she credited both Andrew, who has three children and a fourth on the way, and Tristan, who has eight children, for generously funding their upbringing.

Sesay told DOJ prosecutors upon cross-examination that Andrew has purchased her luxury accessories and ensures she has everything she needs, such as clothing, food, a home, and sometimes expensive gifts or vacations. She said these gestures are what make Andrew stand out as a kind, protective man, proving he is not the brash persona he portrays online that has previously bragged about being "above the law."

But this seemingly heartfelt testimony into the brothers' character was turned upside down by the prosecution, which elicited a response from Sesay that confirmed some of these luxury purchases were made during the time period when Romanian authorities supposedly had seized all of the brothers' assets.

Louis pointed out this contradiction in her order.

"Her testimony, in sum, belied the intimation that [the Tates'] lack of billionaire status renders them incapable of procuring the means by which to undertake flight," Louis said. "It further belied Respondents' insistence - including when testifying at the August 27 hearing - that Romania had foreclosed their access to wealth."

The judge also pointed to the fact that both brothers' children reside abroad, largely in Romania and Dubai.

The Tates' only tie to Miami, the jurisdiction they would have been released into, is their arrest there.

"Their lack of ties to this jurisdiction, and strong foreign ties, demonstrate a risk of flight that has not been overcome," Louis said.

As for the brothers' burden of proving they are not a flight risk, the judge ruled that they failed to do so.

Louis, referring to historical case law, reasoned that the accusations alone against the Tates was enough to indicate that they "do indeed pose dangers to the community."

The brothers' legal team listed several purported examples of special circumstances, which the judge rejected, during the Aug. 27 hearing that they claimed should be enough for their release.

One of those included the fact that the UK warrant and complaint are supported by anonymous witness statements and therefore constitute hearsay, meaning they are not relevant to the matters of their custody hearing.

British authorities have until Sept. 16 to submit their formal extradition request and further supporting evidence for the accusations against the Tates.

[ZH Update: The UK has formally submitted its extradition requests for Andrew Tate and Tristan Tate to the US.]

The formal UK charges are:

Andrew Tate: 42 charges

• 10 counts of rape
• 7 counts of assault occasioning actual bodily harm
• 2 counts of arranging or facilitating travel with a view to exploitation
• 3 counts of arranging or facilitating travel with a view to sexual exploitation
• 1 count of controlling prostitution for gain
• 7 counts of distributing an indecent photograph of a child
• 8 counts of making an indecent photograph of a child
• 4 counts of possessing extreme pornography

Tristan Tate: 17 charges

• 5 counts of rape
• 6 counts of assault occasioning actual bodily harm
• 2 counts of arranging or facilitating travel with a view to exploitation
• 3 counts of arranging or facilitating travel with a view to sexual exploitation
• 1 count of penetrative sexual assault

Total: 59 charges

🚨 BREAKING: The UK has formally submitted its extradition requests for Andrew Tate and Tristan Tate to the US.

The formal UK charges are:

Andrew Tate: 42 charges

• 10 counts of rape
• 7 counts of assault occasioning actual bodily harm
• 2 counts of arranging or… pic.twitter.com/9ToHeclGxp

— Murdered By Crayons 🖍️ (@CrayonMurders) September 10, 2026

The Tates' lawyers further accused the United Kingdom of jumping the line ahead of the Romanian legal proceedings, and that their continued U.S. detention will significantly impact their ability to participate in Romania.

Louis did not find any of the proposed special circumstances convincing.

The brothers were arrested on July 18 in Miami, where they were attending a boxing event, and have remained in custody since, fighting their extradition to the United Kingdom.

Andrew faces 42 charges, and Tristan is facing 17.

While on the stand on Aug. 27, both brothers testified about abuses in Miami solitary confinement, claiming they only get a few hours outside each week. Tristan likened it to "physical and psychological torture."

In the interim between the custody hearing and Louis's Wednesday decision, Romanian authorities indicted on Sept. 4 the brothers on new sex trafficking charges. DOJ prosecutors submitted this to the court as further reasoning for why Andrew and Tristan should remain in custody.

The brothers' Romanian legal representation had submitted a court filing to the judge last week, stressing the importance of Andrew and Tristan's presence there to face charges and review evidence. The DOJ filed a reply, stating that all accommodations for video meetings could be provided in the Miami prison, which Louis appeared to accept in her order.

"This morning, my clients tried. The connection failed. You cannot defend a 30-terabyte criminal case across an ocean through a jailhouse connection that does not work," McBride said in his statement.

He noted that releasing the Tates would not acquit them, but it would simply allow them to help their lawyers prepare their defense.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio will have the final say on whether to order Andrew and Tristan's extradition.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 13:20

Trump Floats $5,000 "Stimmy" Checks For Every US Adult Citizen If GOP Holds Congress

During a speech Wednesday night at the GOP's midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, President Trump proposed sending every adult American citizen a $5,000 "Trump dividend" if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress in November.

"If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them," Trump said, "I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000."

He continued, "It will be called the Trump dividend," adding, "Now all we have to do is win."

NEW: President Trump makes a major promise at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas: $5,000 for every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans win both the House and Senate in the midterms.

“I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for… pic.twitter.com/XqiphY7y8a

— Fox News (@FoxNews) September 10, 2026

Trump told the audience at the American Airlines Center: "Your vote will decide whether our country stumbles at the starting gate of our next 250 years or surges forward and never looks back."

Quick math: A $5,000 payout to 270 million adults would cost the US government approximately $1.35 trillion. The proposal comes as US public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time in recent weeks.

Bloomberg strategist Mark Cudmore warned that a large fiscal injection could intensify existing market pressures, including weaker Treasuries, dollar depreciation, and demand for commodities and other real assets.

"The general reaction from markets is very muted precisely as everyone sees almost zero chance of this happening. The US economy is strong and already at risk of running too hot, so pumping in so much extra fiscal stimulus when under funding pressure will exacerbate all the dynamics we're already focused on in markets: weaker Treasuries, a depreciating dollar and a rush to commodities and real assets," Cudmore said.

The proposal also arrives as Trump acknowledges that significant fuel-price relief may not come until after the midterms. The national average for gasoline remains above the politically sensitive $ 4-per-gallon level, while diesel prices are at record highs. Trump also indicated that the Iran conflict could continue beyond the elections.

President Trump's approval rating is around 38%, according to reporting by The Guardian.

Vice President JD Vance said that these proposed post-election direct payments to Americans could be funded by revenue from Trump's wide-ranging tariff program.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 13:00

Emergency Slide Accidentally Deployed On New Qatari-Gifted Air Force One Before Trump Flew To Texas

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times,

The new Air Force One's emergency slide was accidentally deployed on Sept. 9 before President Donald Trump boarded to attend the first-ever 2026 Republican Midterm Convention.

The inflatable slide popped out shortly before the president was scheduled to board the plane and fly to Dallas for the high-profile GOP event.

When Trump was asked by a reporter if he was confident the plane was safe to fly, the president responded, "Yeah, I am, or I wouldn't be on it."

"As the President has said, the slide was checked out to make sure everything works perfectly," White House communications director Steven Cheung told The Epoch Times via email on Wednesday.

"Air Force One is on its way to Dallas so he can deliver his much-anticipated speech to a raucous and sold-out crowd."

Trump was scheduled to give the keynote address during the first night of the 2026 Republican Convention around 9:00 p.m. ET. The president will speak on Thursday to close out the event too.

A White House official separately told The Epoch Times that "military personnel accidentally triggered the slide" ahead of boarding.

The emergency slide was taken away before Trump boarded the jet, which is worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Trump started flying on the jet in July after the government accepted the plane from Qatar as a gift in 2025.

Days after the plane started transporting the president, the Secret Service made Trump switch planes first to the old Air Force One plane, and then secretly to an unmarked C-32A military jet, to depart for a two-day NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.

White House communications director Steven Cheung revealed on July 9 that the switch-up was part of a "distraction and misdirection" strategy intended to address threats against the president.

The plane is being used as the interim presidential aircraft while the White House waits for the fully equipped VC-25B planes, which are expected to arrive at the end of Trump's second term.

The Boeing VC-25B planes were supposed to arrive in 2024 but have been delayed for years and aren't expected to be ready for flight until mid-2028.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 12:45

Trump Open To Pardoning Cohen After Former Attorney Says He Was Pressured

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he would consider giving his former personal attorney Michael Cohen a pardon after Cohen said he felt he was "pressured and coerced" while testifying against Trump in a criminal trial.

"If everything is checking out, it's something I would consider," Trump told reporters when asked if he would pardon Cohen.

"I appreciate that at least he came out, although late, he came out and rectified the situation."

A presidential pardon forgives a federal offense but does not declare the recipient innocent or erase the conviction from the criminal record, according to the Office of the Pardon Attorney. It can remove certain civil restrictions resulting from the conviction, potentially restore federal firearms rights, and improve the recipient's ability to obtain employment, professional licenses or bonding.

Cohen was a prominent critic and a prosecution witness in Trump's 2024 New York criminal trial. Cohen testified that Trump was involved in arranging a payment to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential campaign.

Cohen pleaded guilty in 2018 to campaign-finance violations, tax evasion, bank fraud, and lying to Congress. He received a three-year federal sentence and completed his prison term and supervision requirements in November 2024. Asked whether he might seek a presidential pardon, Cohen said he did not know but might consider it later.

Trump was convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records and denied wrongdoing. In January 2025, he received an unconditional discharge, meaning he was guilty but would face no penalty.

Trump appeared on Cohen's radio show in August and praised Cohen for recanting previous statements. It was Trump's first public conversation with Cohen in eight years.

"They weaponized you. They weaponized a lot of people," the president told Cohen on the latter's 770 WABC radio program in New York. "I respect the fact that you recanted everything you said. You're going to go down as a man of courage, great courage, because you did something that a lot of people wouldn't have the guts to do."

Cohen worked for Trump for more than a decade before their relationship collapsed amid criminal investigations, public criticism, and legal battles.

A federal judge in March 2024 denied Cohen's fourth request to end supervised release early, citing concerns that Cohen had contradicted his 2018 guilty plea.

Judge Jesse Furman said Cohen denied committing tax evasion while testifying under oath in Trump's civil fraud trial, despite previously pleading guilty to that crime.

Furman said that either Cohen lied during his plea or committed perjury during the 2023 trial, demonstrating a continued need for supervision.

Cohen and his attorney called the ruling legally and factually wrong, arguing he never disputed his underlying conduct and had accepted a coercive plea deal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 12:15

WTI Tops $101 As Strategic Petroleum Reserve Nears Record Low

Following Brent's lead (which is following Shanghai's demand push), WTI topped $100 this morning for the first time since May, fueled by festering Middle East hostilities (with Saudi-Houthi attacks stealing the headlines) and the Saudis latest statement showing crude output at a 36-year low.

That suggests the market is transitioning to a regime where $100 Brent is the new floor.

"The economic dimension is crucial," said Andreas Krieg, a Gulf expert from King's College London.

"Saudi Arabia is already contending with disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi pressure on shipping in the Red Sea.

Attacks on Jazan and other vital economic infrastructure in the south place the Kingdom's export system under pressure from both ends."

Last night's API report showed de minimus product inventory moves withe a modest crude draw...

API

• Crude -2.6mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline +348k

• Distillates -265k

DOE

• Crude -391k (-300k exp)

• Cushing -684k

• Gasoline +1.27mm

• Distillates +2.087mm

Unlike the API report, refined products saw notable inventory builds last week while crude saw a tiny draw (the first time inventories have declined in back-to-back weeks since late June)...

Cushing stocks dipped and remain just off 'tank bottoms'...

The Trump admin drewdown a tiny 1.24mm barrels from the SPR last week - the smallest since the war began...

...now just 7mm barrels away from record lows...

US Crude production hit a new record high...

As Bloomberg's Tai Liu reports the 4-week moving average for US gasoline demand was 8.8 million barrels per day for the EIA week ended 9/4/2026, a week on week decline of 104,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, the more volatile weekly gasoline demand figure saw a more sizable decline of 371,000 barrels per day. US gasoline crack spreads remain elevated at $40 per barrel, not far from the recent peak of $45 per barrel. US gasoline demand should continue to decline seasonally in the weeks ahead, especially at these elevated price levels. 

WTI was hovering around the $100 level ahead of the official inventory data...

...and surged above $101 after the data...

Earlier this morning, we saw PPI driven by a rebound in crude in August. At this pace of rise in crude (and fuel) prices, we will see inflation surge again next month... dragging Warsh along with more hikes (which will do nothing to solve the supply constraint).

One word - stagflation!

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 12:10

Rate-Hike Odds Spike As Fuel Costs Push US Producer Prices Higher

In a relatively unusual turn around, US producer prices hit today ahead of tomorrow's CPI. Interestingly Consumer prices get all the headlines, it is PPI that offers the most read-throughs for Core PCE - The (old) Fed's favorite inflation gauge).

Headline producer pries were expected to rebound significantly from July's flatline as oil prices rebounded on re-escalations in the MidEast, and they printed right in line, up 04.% MoM in August (with July's revised up to +0.1% MoM. That lifted the annual PPI gain to +5.4% YoY (hotter than expected)...

Energy has flipped from deflation to re-inflation...

PPI final demand good rose 1.1% MoM, the most since May, while PPI final demand services rose 0.1%, the lowest since May.

Here are the details behind the breakdown:

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods advanced 1.1% in August following two consecutive decreases.

• Over three-fourths of the broad-based rise can be attributed to prices for final demand energy, which moved up 4.2%.The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods increased 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively.

Product detail: Over a third of the August increase in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for diesel fuel, which jumped 24.1%. The indexes for gasoline, jet fuel, home heating oil, candy and nuts, and tobacco products also advanced. In contrast, prices for residential electric power fell 0.5 percent. The indexes for fresh sausage and for aluminum mill shapes also decreased.

Final demand services: The index for final demand services edged up 0.1 percent in August, the third consecutive increase.

• The August advance can be attributed to a 2.3-percent rise in prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services. Conversely, the index for final demand trade services moved down 0.2 percent, while prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing were unchanged.

Product detail: Leading the August increase in the index for final demand services, prices for truck transportation of freight advanced 2.0 percent. The indexes for airline passenger services, legal services, hospital inpatient care, and automobiles retailing (partial) also rose. In contrast, margins for fuels and lubricants retailing decreased 11.3 percent. The indexes for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; machinery and equipment wholesaling; and portfolio management also moved lower.

Core PPI (Ex Food and Energy) rose a cooler than expected 0.2% MoM (+0.3% MoM exp), and pulled Core producer prices up 4.6% YoY (as expected)...

Energy was the biggest driver with Transportation and Warehousing costs jumped while Trade costs deflated...

Portfolio management costs declined as stocks stagnated...

Higher crude, higher PPI Energy...

Fuel costs were the biggest driver within Energy/Commodities with over a third of the August increase in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for diesel fuel, which jumped 24.1%.

And that has lifted rate-hike odds for next week, now at 75%...

Will Warsh deliver another major surprise (not hike)? Just wait for tomorrow's CPI to print cool...

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 12:00

Copper Stocks Hammered As White House Tariff Doubts Rattle Metals Trade

Copper future and related stocks plunged on Thursday morning after a Reuters report said that the White House's "copper tariff plan stalls amid affordability concerns." 

The Trump administration has yet to decide whether to impose tariffs on refined copper, sending copper prices around the world to record highs this summer as physical copper flooded US warehouses. 

The report from the outlet:

The White House has not yet made a decision on refined copper tariffs as officials juggle concerns that higher prices for the red metal could raise manufacturing costs against ‌the potential benefits of encouraging more domestic mining, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The hesitation comes as the administration is increasingly focused on affordability ahead of November's midterm elections, with President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers facing pressure to demonstrate that their economic policies are lowering — rather than raising — costs for American consumers and businesses.

The report is unwinding the tariff trade risk premium, with US copper prices sinking 4.6%. 

Freeport-McMoRan fell 8%, Southern Copper dropped 7% and Teck Resources slid 7.9%. Ero Copper declined 8.6%, Capstone Copper lost 8.2% and First Quantum Minerals retreated 6.4%.

"Today's news should further close the CME-LME arbitrage which has previously benefited companies that sell US copper, including Freeport (~1/3 US copper sales), and is also negative for the LME copper price," Crittenden wrote in a note to clients. 

Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch told clients:

China has the Rare Earth, increasingly US has the Copper. The affordability issue is subjective. Inflation driven majority by Energy not metals (See Hot China CPI/PPI this week was majority energy). Onshoring manufacturing requires reliable supply chains. Cost inflation has driven  incentive prices higher and a big chunk of the copper move is mine supply issues, scrap tightness. Look at the supply story - Ali at $3,300, Zinc at $4k, all supply stories, Copper is the same.. We all watch Copper TC's, take a look at Zinc and LEad, also at unprecedented record highs. This is a Supply story.

Think about it like this....If you're worried about US manufacturing, US steel prices run at 2.5x Asian prices. Copper trades at a more modest 10-15% premium......Copper is an issue for the build out of electrification. The administration clearly cares about

First impulse is to sell US leaders like FCX.US, SCCO.US have multiple asks on buying the dip here in AAL.LN and GLEN.LN . GLEN is a Copper stock with an energy put and a marketing tailwind (and Zinc and all the others, dont forget freight!). ... Commodity desk mostly seen buying vol, 18v on Monday, to 20v (Tue ATH) to bid on 22v just now....I DO NOT PERSONALLY BELIEVE ANYTHING HAS CHANGED AND I AM NOT ADJUSTING MY POSITIONS. I AM LONG. We know there is accumulated length, we also know this mkt loves to utterly punish anyone that shows the slightest sign of weakness/nervousness.

Three charts...Copper arb (in below1st arb approx $150 live or like 1% implied, has halved this am), Physical inventory positions, and investor (Managed money) positions.

As of 10 a.m. ET, Goldman's US Metals basket was down nearly 3%. The copper tariffs report spread weakness into the broader metals trade. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 11:35

"There Is No Day After Tomorrow"; Bessent Warns Of Consequences To Losing AI Arms Race To China

Authored by Arthur Zhang via The Epoch Times,

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States cannot afford to fall behind China in artificial intelligence, warning that a Chinese lead would outweigh other U.S. advantages.

"Beating China - there is no day after tomorrow if China wins at this," Bessent said on Sept. 9 at Breitbart News's "State of the Economy" event in Washington.

"If they were to pull ahead of us on AI, then nothing else matters."

Bessent made the remarks while answering a question about opposition to data centers and the need to expand the infrastructure required for AI development.

On the same day, the National Security Agency, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, and FBI issued a joint advisory accusing six China-based AI companies of conducting industrial-scale campaigns to extract capabilities from U.S. frontier AI models.

The agencies named DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, Alibaba, MiniMax, StepFun, and Z.AI, saying the companies had extracted billions of tokens through millions of requests to frontier models including Claude, GPT, Gemini, and Grok since at least late 2024.

Agencies Detail Model Distillation

Knowledge distillation is a machine learning technique in which one model is trained using the outputs of another. The technique is commonly used legitimately, including to develop smaller or less expensive models.

The advisory alleged, however, that the six companies engaged in "aggressive, malicious, and targeted" distillation at an industrial scale to extract restricted proprietary functions and capabilities from U.S. models. The NSA said the companies were systematically extracting U.S. model capabilities to train their own systems.

According to the advisory, the companies distributed their activity across model providers, cloud platforms, and other infrastructure to avoid detection. Some used third-party services to relay requests to U.S. models, allowing them to bypass geographic restrictions and other safeguards, the agencies said.

The agencies assessed that the alleged activity took place "likely with Chinese government awareness." The advisory did not state that Chinese authorities directed the individual campaigns.

It said DeepSeek had allegedly conducted an organized campaign since at least late 2024 to obtain reasoning capabilities, specialized optimizations, and other functions for use in its R1 and V3 models. The agencies also attributed large-scale distillation activity to Alibaba's Qwen models and to models developed by the other four companies.

The agencies said such activity could allow Chinese AI developers to narrow the technology gap while avoiding some of the computing power, electricity, foundational research, and other costs required to independently develop frontier models. The advisory stated that advances in Chinese AI models could also expand military and cyber capabilities.

Beijing rejected the allegations on Sept. 9. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said China's AI development came from domestic technological development and international cooperation.

The Sept. 8 advisory urged American AI companies and infrastructure providers to improve detection of suspicious activity and strengthen coordination across model developers, cloud providers, and application programming interface providers to counter large-scale distillation campaigns.

Earlier Warnings From US AI Companies

The federal advisory follows earlier accusations by American AI developers.

Anthropic said in February that it had identified industrial-scale campaigns by DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, and MiniMax involving more than 16 million exchanges with Claude through approximately 24,000 fraudulent accounts.

The accounts violated its terms of service and regional access restrictions, Anthropic said. It also said that while distillation is a legitimate training method, competitors can misuse it to acquire capabilities developed by other companies without bearing comparable development costs.

OpenAI separately told the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party in February that it had observed activity indicating continued attempts by DeepSeek to distill capabilities from OpenAI and other U.S. frontier models, including through increasingly obfuscated methods intended to make the activity harder to detect.

Data Centers and the AI Race

Bessent tied the competition with China to the U.S. buildout of data centers and other infrastructure needed for AI.

He said the United States currently has the lead because of its technology companies, advanced chips, financing, and startup ecosystem, but argued that development could not be paused.

"We can't pause," Bessent said. "You can't, because the Chinese won't pause."

He criticized technology companies for failing to engage adequately with communities affected by new data-center construction.

Bessent also alleged that some opposition to data-center development involved Chinese "agitprop." He did not identify specific examples for that assertion during the discussion.

He gave data-center developers, hyperscalers, and major AI companies a "D-minus" for community outreach and said they needed to do a better job explaining their projects and potential benefits to residents.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 11:05

Houthis Seize Yemeni Port Of Mocha, Gaining Greater Leverage Over Bab Al Mandab Strait

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militants (Ansar Allah) have scored a major victory against Saudi-backed government forces, after the war was fiercely reinvigorated this month, having seized a historic Red Sea port on Thursday which effectively givens the Houthis even greater leverage over the Bab Al Mandab Strait.

The port of Mocha - also spelled Mokha or Al Makha - once stood at the center of the global coffee trade and is a common household name internationally, but now is also the place from where Iranian proxies could further squeeze global energy markets.

According to the latest on the fluid battle lines via Reuters, "The group [Ansar Allah] has launched attacks on the strategic Red Sea islands of Hanish, pushing government forces and their allies south to Dhubab, which sits directly on the strait across from the island of Perim, the Yemeni sources told Reuters on Thursday." And more: "Control of Dhubab and the island is key to gaining hold of the strait, they said."

Earlier in Washington's Operation Epic Fury, the Houthis essentially joined what emerged as a regional conflict in support of Tehran, also announcing a 'siege for siege' on all Saudi exports and shipping. The group had already long opened a war on Israeli and any Tel Aviv-linked ships.

The renewed fight with Saudi Arabia, which has seen Saudi jets bomb 'rebel' locations across Yemen (a return to the much bigger but failed campaign of the last decade which raged since 2015), was the result of recent Houthi ballistic missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, which has caused major operational stoppages.

The Houthis have also at times taken aim at Saudi airports, and multiple cities in the kingdom. Earlier this summer the Saudi air force tried to prevent an Iranian passenger plane from flying to and from Houthi controlled Yemen, an event which also served as a catalyst to the current fighting.

It seems the Houthis are seeking to control the whole western coastline, which would greatly expand their reach in terms of targeting international shipping. Al Jazeera provides the following analysis of the significance of the group's recent gains:

The Ansar Allah Houthis having control of the port of Mocha means they also control the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This gives the Houthis the eyes, the ears and the pressure to monitor international trade. Bab al-Mandeb is responsible for 10-12 percent of global trade.

Secondly, this also gives them the ability to block any Saudi military reinforcements to the internationally recognized Yemeni government that come through the southern port of Hodeidah.

Thirdly, this also means they will be able to cut off the three main supply lines to government forces stationed in the south of the country and in the central provinces of al-Bayda and al-Dhale.

Fresh unconfirmed reports Thursday say that the Houthis have now actually reached the Red Sea islands of Hanish. If true this would be a further strategic advantage for taking more coastline.

Yemen: The Houthis captured the Red Sea port of Mocha early Thursday after government forces pulled out. Control of the coast lets them threaten Bab el-Mandeb shipping and raises the threat to Saudi Arabia. pic.twitter.com/oDxQdseJbY

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) September 10, 2026

The forces of the internationally recognized Aden-based government have at this point reportedly abandoned their military positions west of Taiz and south of Mocha.

Saudi allies, especially Pakistan, have been warning of some kind of intervention on Riyadh's behalf, based on the Mecca Defense Pact. The pact between Riyadh, Islamabad, and Ankara has been likened to NATO Article 5, where an attack on one is an 'attack on all'. These countries' own officials have in many cases advanced this interpretation. However, so far there's been no such action in response to the Houthis, deemed by many to be a 'non-state actor'.

*  *  *

Interesting on the ground coverage from just hours before Mocha's capture. Can the Houthis now hold it?

Exclusive access to Island that may soon fall to Iran's powerful proxy the Houthis - overnight they appear closer to control of vital Yemen Island that could drive price of oil even higher.. pic.twitter.com/63ShDPSZmD

— Nic Robertson (@NicRobertsonCNN) September 10, 2026 Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 10:45

Betting Against The House?

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

Brent futures broke through $100 per barrel after a series of attacks in the Middle East raise concerns that the conflict could intensify again. Iran said that it is ready to escalate its counterstrikes if the US continues to attack its territory and infrastructure. Parliament speaker Ghalibaf warned that Iran’s next targets are US oil and gas company assets in the region. The Houthis already struck energy facilities in Saudi Arabia in a direct response to the US attacking several Iranian oil tankers.

Adding to the energy price pressures, the European gas benchmark briefly surpassed €80/MWh. Ukrainian drones forced closures at Russian ports. Moreover, Russia’s TASS news agency reported a fire at the Yamal energy site. TTF futures receded to €79 on reports that the LNG terminal was not damaged in the strikes.

Nonetheless, the fact that Ukraine is now targeting gas facilities deep inside Russia’s territory creates substantial risks for the European energy outlook. The Yamal facility is a major LNG production and liquification plant, and a key supplier to Europe. It shipped almost 10 million tons of LNG to the EU in the first half of the year.

These renewed energy price pressures add to the inflation concerns that have been weighing down global fixed income. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.83% and the 30-year bond touched 5.30%, testing Treasury Secretary Bessent’s pain threshold ahead of a bond auction today. When the 30-year yield surpassed 5.30% in August, Bessent announced an expansion of the Treasury buyback operations, which effectively changes a liquidity management tool into a potential instrument for market interventions.

However, this week’s operation disappointed. Yesterday, the US Treasury announced that it will buy back $6 billion in longer-dated Treasury notes today. Although that is three times the normal size, the operation is at the lower end of the $5-8 billion that the market had expected. So, Bessent may have warned yen traders that “he is the house now […] and you can bet against me if you want,” but fixed income traders are still testing how deep the house’s pockets are, and if he is willing to spend it all.

The White House, meanwhile, seems more than willing to spend. President Trump promised a $5,000 “dividend” to every adult US citizen if the Republican party retains control of both houses of Congress. The plan emphasises the pressure that Trump –who denies voters face an affordability crisis– is under ahead of the midterm elections.

Based on Census Bureau population estimates, this promise would cost upwards of $1 trillion. Not only would that add to the $40 trillion in existing debt, but it could also exhaust all the room left until the US hits the debt ceiling – adding to the default risks. However, Congress would have to approve Trump’s plan and his previous “tariff dividend” also failed to gain support on Capitol Hill. 

Indeed, Republican senators are already trying to modify Trump’s plan.

So, investors largely shrugged off Trump’s idea as unlikely to happen. Yet, the uncertainty may still add to US term premia at the margin, at a time when markets are already testing the Treasury Secretary’s resolve.

Rising yields are forcing difficult decisions everywhere, as governments face higher interest bills and deteriorating public finances. Choices can be politically expensive, but not making any choices will cost hard currency.

UK Prime Minister Burnham told said that “national security cannot come at the expense of social security.” Yet, it must be paid for somehow. The prime minister suggested he would get the welfare costs down “the Labour way,” that is, by reforming and changing the system instead of simply cutting benefits.

Burnham promised to present a sound plan, but the added fiscal uncertainty weighed on Gilt yields, at a time when global yields are already rising. This is not quite a Liz Truss moment, but the 30-year yield rose 7 basis points on the day.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 10:25

Existing Home Sales Slump (Again) In August, Supply Hits 10 Year High

Existing home sales tumbled for the 3rd straight month in August, falling 2.0% MoM, sparking its biggest annual decline since January...

This implied an annualized rate of 3.98 million in August, marking one of only two times since the fall of 2024 that sales have dipped below 4 million...

“Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions, so it's not surprising to see a mild dip in home buying activity due to high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

“Still, home prices are rising, and existing home sales are actually up 1.6% year-to-date through the first eight months of the year..." Yun noted.

"Homebuying demand, despite higher interest rates, is no doubt being supported by rising wages, which grew 3.1% in August, along with 643,000 net new jobs added since the start of the year. Job creation and wage growth typically drive housing demand.”

The median sales price rose 1.6% from a year ago to $429,100, extending a streak of annual price increases dating back to mid-2023.

Finally, and more ominously, Yun continued, “The number of months it would take to exhaust the total inventory at the current sales pace has grown to 4.9 months’ supply - its highest level in over ten years. The ample supply of homes for sale on the market is giving homebuyers better opportunities to negotiate.”

A rate-hike is just what the housing market wants (or will Warsh's credibility be regained and lower the long-end?)

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 10:16

After AfD Victory In Saxony-Anhalt, Merz And Weidel Trade Blows During Intense Debate In Bundestag

Via Remix News,

Three days after the Alternative for Germany's (AfD) landslide in Saxony-Anhalt, the Bundestag's general budget debate turned into a verbal battle between AfD co-chair Alice Weidel and Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with the two battling it out over mass immigration, democracy, crime, Ukraine, and the future of Germany.

Heckling filled the chamber. Bundestag President Julia Klöckner repeatedly intervened. The exchange was the first direct parliamentary clash between the two leaders since Sunday's vote, in which the AfD took 43.8 percent and the CDU collapsed to 17.2 percent.

Weidel opened the debate and treated the election results as a verdict on the ruling federal government coalition led by Merz. "The voters in Saxony-Anhalt have made it abundantly clear to you, in the language of the democratic sovereign: the Black-Red coalition is over," she said. Citizens wanted "a change of policy," she added, "and they do not want more of the same."

🇩🇪🔴JUST IN: After AfD's landslide victory, Weidel tells Merz that "the voters in Saxony-Anhalt have communicated to you in the language of the democratic sovereign with all clarity: Black-Red (CDU-SPD ruling coalition) is over."

She slammed the government's new budget during a… pic.twitter.com/i9JCrhBDin

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 9, 2026

Addressing Merz directly, she said he had failed to hear that message.

"That is not especially relevant, because your time has run out anyway. Citizens want a change of policy, and they will get it," she said.

She turned next to the draft federal budget. Weidel called it a "declaration of surrender" and accused Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of "unserious budget management."

"Despite record tax revenues, you are incapable of managing the public's money wisely. Why? Because you are unwilling to free yourselves from the shackles of green ideology, left-wing mass migration, and socialist redistribution."

She said the CDU-SPD government planned more than €1 trillion in new borrowing over its term, a figure she described as unprecedented in the Federal Republic. The result, she argued, would destroy future room for maneuver and leave "scorched earth."

"You are driving Germany into national bankruptcy in record time," she said.

Weidel also continued to slam Merz on mass migration, a sore spot for the ruling government.

"You declare the migration crisis to be over. Yet, every year, a six-figure number of migrants enters the country through the back door of asylum, plus another major city through family reunification - most of them from Muslim tribal cultures," she stated, adding: "More than a million refugees live whose asylum application has been rejected more than once. What are these people actually still doing in this country? They should be deported!"

Weidel accused the coalition of declaring the crisis over while still admitting large numbers of people through asylum procedures and family reunification. She claimed more than a million people whose asylum claims had already been rejected remained in the country and should be deported. Ordinary workers, she said, were paying the price.

"Because [Germans] have to deal daily with the consequences of mass migration, with the hatred of foreign groups toward their own, with hatred of Christians, with hatred of Germans, with hatred of Germany, and you are even providing financial support to these people. This must finally come to an end!"

🇩🇪🔴 After AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt, Alice Weidel takes Chancellor Merz to task during a raucous debate.

"Because [Germans] have to deal daily with the consequences of mass migration, with the hatred of foreign groups toward their own, with hatred of Christians, with… pic.twitter.com/lBjLNPt9hM

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 9, 2026

Energy policy drew the sharpest interjections from the government benches. Weidel called the energy transition "the greatest millstone dragging our economy into the abyss" and "lost, burned money." Germany, she said, was facing a possible winter gas shortage after the destruction of Nord Stream 2 while still sending billions to Ukraine. She demanded renewed Russian gas deliveries, a return to nuclear power, and peace talks.

"While the United States is making another attempt to end the murderous Ukraine war, you are stepping up the war propaganda and the confrontation with Russia," she told the chancellor. When SPD deputies laughed, she snapped: "Do you find that funny? Voters out there can see that the SPD finds deindustrialization funny. So stop laughing."

Merz responds

Merz came out swinging against Weidel, conceding the Saxony-Anhalt result was "remarkable," but said the AfD had missed its actual goal: an absolute majority of seats.

"Fifty-six percent of voters in Saxony-Anhalt did not vote for you," he said. "And you will not achieve that anywhere in Germany with this policy." He accused Weidel of having pushed lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund, within hours of the polls closing, to seek a governing majority after having promised before the election to govern only with an absolute majority.

"You are, and you will remain, Ms. Weidel, a destructive force," he accused.

The sharpest attack from Merz concerned remigration. He said the concept is "nothing other than a synonym for ethnic cleansing based on origin and skin color."

🇩🇪Germany

The anti-immigration AfD party is pursuing a plan of "ethnic cleansing based on skin color and origin," said Chancellor Friedrich Merz during a Bundestag debate.

Follow: @RMXnews pic.twitter.com/2BFmeSXztH

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 9, 2026

If that program were carried out, he claimed, skilled trades, nursing homes, hospitals, and restaurants would cease to function, because one in six workers in the crafts already holds a foreign passport and millions of people with a migration background keep essential services running. The coalition, he said, agreed on deporting people without a right to stay, but distinguished between those who work and contribute and those who must leave. AfD deputies erupted. Several shouted that the claim was false.

On Ukraine, Merz accused the AfD of reversing perpetrator and victim. Neither NATO, the European Union nor Germany had threatened Russia, he said.

"The only thing that truly threatens Russia and Putin is the radiance of democracy." The AfD, he added, still stood with Moscow. "Right there runs the deep rift between you and us, in foreign policy, in European policy, in social policy and in peace policy," he said.

He also charged that Weidel had said nothing about a failed drone incident at Leipzig Airport, a hacking attack on Berlin infrastructure, or this year's fires and weather extremes.

"Not a word from you, Ms. Weidel, about what has been going on in this country this year, he accused her.

At one point in Merz's speech, Klöckner told the AfD that heckling is part of parliamentary life, "but it is not part of constantly interrupting a speaker. You also have to accept that there are other opinions."

When the noise continued, she warned one deputy: "We are not on the football pitch here right now. Save this for the weekend." Later she threatened MPs with expulsion. Merz thanked her and said the interruptions themselves showed the AfD's "contempt for the German Bundestag," adding that "listening is not your strong suit."

With the battle brewing over who controls Saxony-Anhalt still to be decided, and with Merz's CDU crashing below 20 percent in the latest poll, political tensions are set to rise in the coming month.

Read more here...

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 10:00

Iran War Until 2029? Vance, Rubio Privately Warn Trump It Could Drag Through End Of His Term

President Trump on Wednesday told reporters to expect more US attacks on Iranian tankers, as the war over the Hormuz Strait continues to escalate in piecemeal tit-for-tat fashion. 

"The attacks are made by us. We’ve knocked out nine of their ships. I would say that the attacks are caused by us, and you’re going to see a lot more," the president told reporters on Wednesday, adding that many of the Iranian tankers are "donezo" - as global oil prices continue to climb.

The region has now seen over six months of war since Trump launched an operation that he and White House officials at first suggested would just be 'days' - and then insisted (repeatedly) would be a 'four to six week' campaign. 

via The Associated Press

All along the White House has kept moving the goal posts, amid lack of overall strategic vision and failure to articulate what exactly enough of a 'victory' to establish a military exit would look like.

Speaking of drastically moving the goal post, the below was another key media exchange with Trump on Wednesday: 

Q: Do you expect negotiations with Iran to restart at some point?

Trump: Uhhhhhh... we're not looking for it to be honest with you. This war will end immediately after our election.

This as The Wall Street Journal has issued a report saying Trump's top advisors are now warning him that the Iran conflict could last through the rest of his term.

Trump has called it 'small potatoes' - but he may now have his very own forever war...

Top White House advisers have raised privately with President Trump the prospect that the Iran war could drag on through the remainder of his term, U.S. officials said, a message at odds with Trump’s public assurances of a swift victory.

In the Oval Office and Situation Room, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others have discussed with the president that Tehran could continue to resist U.S. pressure under the blockade and other military tactics, potentially extending the conflict past Inauguration Day in January 2029, the officials said.

...oh to have been a fly on the wall during that little meeting.

According to more snippets from the WSJ report:

The closed-door discussions come as Trump told reporters Wednesday that the war will end “immediately” after the midterm elections in November “because they can’t hold out any longer.”  

...Trump often speaks privately with aides of his desire for a quick resolution to the war, which is in its seventh month and has killed 18 servicemembers, the officials said. But Trump also supports a long-term economic siege, using a naval blockade and sanctions in a bid to force the regime to dismantle its nuclear program. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has portrayed the new strategy—dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast”—as an alternative to major combat operations.

Iran has been touting that it is ready to endure and survive at any cost while this week vowing 'disproportionate' responses to any military aggression from the United States.

IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi stated Wednesday, "We have reached a point where if the enemy strikes at 2 or 3 of our targets, we will respond forcefully by striking at 20."

Back in mid-March, at a moment Trump officials were still claiming Operation Epic Fury would be swift and effective, US intelligence at the time assessed that Iran's leadership and government are largely in tact and the system does not risk collapse.

And now, half a year into the war, the exact same can be said. Even the establishment CFR's Foreign Affairs makes the case for a conservative realism contra Bessent's forecasts in Why America Can’t Strangle Iran:

But even as the country’s economic situation is getting worse, Iran’s leadership remains better able to resist the coercive effects of sanctions than it might appear. The state of the economy is not yet impinging on Iran’s ability to wage war. Stockpiles of various goods remain deep, thanks to years of sanctions experience. And the Iranian state, with its powerful repressive tools, has figured out how to offload much of the economic pain onto ordinary Iranians while making sure its own needs are met. Trump’s approach, in other words, can certainly immiserate most of the country’s people. But it cannot successfully strangle the Islamic Republic itself.

One pundit has accurately described the state of play which defines Iran's existential survival posture, pointing out: "Endurance regimes do not need clean victory to change the game. They only need to survive the shock while making the old equilibrium too costly for their adversaries to restore." So 'winning' for Iran looks much different, compared to US objectives.

Anyone have an update on this? pic.twitter.com/frT8CSRcN2

— Ron Shillman (@shillman1) September 9, 2026

But at a moment that Iran's ballistic missile capability is still obviously very much intact - given that just this very week US bases in Jordan were targeted in a huge volley - White House official statements have a Baghdad Bob flavor to them...

"President Trump has destroyed Iran’s military capabilities and is crippling what’s left of its abysmal economy with the most powerful naval blockade in world history and crushing sanctions," White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said. "Only President Trump knows what he will do and when." Ok, sure.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 09:45

Wall Street Responds To Apple's Foldable iPhone As Margin Risks Cloud Launch

Apple revealed its new foldable iPhone on Wednesday afternoon, and Wall Street analysts were largely positive about the specs and demand outlook. However, enthusiasm for the device diminished by mounting concerns that restrained price hikes across the iPhone lineup could pressure hardware margins.

Apple shares are up 1% in premarket trading in New York and about 1.6% higher since the unveiling of the new foldable iPhone and iPhone 18 Pro lineup. The new foldable iPhone starts around $2,000, with the premium model costing up to $3,199.

Did Apple learn anything from the failed launch of the $3,500 Vision Pro?

JUST IN: Internet accuses Apple of photoshopping "freakishly long" fingers into its iPhone Duo marketing, to make the massive foldable look easier to hold one-handed. pic.twitter.com/D8C19tqlFa

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) September 9, 2026

The question floating around multiple Wall Street desks overnight and into Thursday morning is how much of that foldable iPhone and new lineup demand translates into profit.

Jefferies analysts, who maintain an underperform rating and a $263.66 12-month price target, said Apple appears focused on boosting volumes at the expense of margins. Unchanged pricing for the iPhone 17 and Air could support demand while pressuring profitability.

TD Cowen, which rates Apple a "Buy" with a $400 price target, similarly warned that modest price increases could create hardware gross-margin headwinds. The analysts highlighted the new 2-nanometer chip's doubling of AI speed.

"Price increases were modest, which aids affordability, but hardware GM could face more headwinds in the coming year," TD Cowen analysts said.

Vital Knowledge analysts noted, "Duo is a very 'cool' device, with a competitive price point, but it remains to be seen whether Apple can manufacture enough of them to meet demand."

Here is Citi analyst Atif Malik's first take on iPhone Duo:

Apple launched a new foldable product cycle Duo under the new CEO John Ternus today. With a 7.6" inner display and a more iPad-like multi tasking experience, Duo is the biggest new hardware category since Apple Watch/Airpods. 

The launch of the iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max (no standard iPhone 18) and the starting price of $1,999 on Duo shows Apple's iPhone line up is heavily skewed towards premium devices this fall.

Moreover, Apple repriced the IP16/IP17 portfolio by ~$100 with bigger ~$300 increase on higher 1TB storage tier we believe to offset higher memory component prices. Overall, IP18 specs, foldable ASP are in-line and IP18 ASPs below our ~$200 preview. Net-net, with price increase on the older iPhones, we maintain our model and gross margin assumptions. New Siri AI is the most important software announcement as Apple moves from AI features towards AI agent integrated into iOS27. Maintain Buy $365 TP.

Bernstein's Mark Newman asked clients, "What about gross margins?"

Newman explained:

Yesterday Apple held its Surprise and Shine product release, this note summarizes the products announced including specs and prices and potential impact to gross margins.

The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max deliver meaningful improvements with smaller price increase than expected at entry storage levels. Among the improvements, most interesting was the 2nm A20 processor and packaging enabling up to 40% higher sustained performance. The 48 MP main camera with variable aperture and significantly improved battery life (with faster charging) were the other notable improvements. Most interesting though was the price - up only $100 (or 7-8%) on entry 18 Pro and Pro Max models, which was less severe than feared and less than what we've seen from Android competitors. At higher storage tiers though the price increase was more substantial (with 18 Pro Max 2TB at $2,499 up $500 vs. comparable 17 Pro Max).

The well anticipated "Surprise" was the iPhone Duo - Apple's first foldable phone, which didn't disappoint. Unlike most competitor Android offerings, the Duo opens out to an aspect ratio similar to what we're used to with an iPad, which should make it more intuitive and useful for watching movies or have windows side by side. Starting price of $1,999 (for the 256GB option) was also lower than feared and considering this potentially replaces a high-end iPhone and an iPad (at $1000+ each), we believe this price is competitive, but ramps up to a whopping $3,199 for 2TB.

Apple is making steady progress on AI, with the potential to monetize. Apple Intelligence runs on-device whenever possible, with more computationally demanding requests are handled through Private Cloud Compute. Some capabilities that rely on the server models will have usage limits, with increased access available through iCloud+ plans - the first signs of AI monetization.

In addition to price increases on new models, Apple bucked its trend of discounting older models by $100 and actually increased prices of older models by $100 - effectively a $200 price move. This combined with the staggered launch should reduce gross margin impact from rising memory costs.

Our analysis shows that like for like 18 Pro / Pro Max models will have significantly worse gross margins than comparable 17 Pro / Pro Max models. Entry models will see over 1000bps of gross margin dilution, and on average 14% lower gross profit $/unit. However, the iPhone Duo, increased price of older models and staggered launch should reduce this gross margin impact.

While we like the new product releases and believe gross margin hit may not be as bad as feared, there continues to be much uncertainty on new level of gross margins with today's elevated memory prices. On the other-hand, these lower price increases on entry models should help Apple continue to gain market share over Android rivals. We rate Apple Outperform, PT $370, but worry that the stock may not work until December quarter guide is behind us (in late October).

Goldman analyst Michael Ng's first take:

During Apple's Special Event "Surprise and Shine" on September 9th, 2026, AAPL announced its new iPhone lineup (Foldable iPhone Duo, 18 Pro, and 18 Pro Max), updated Apple Watches (Series 12 and Ultra 4), and AirPods 5.

Overall, key product feature announcements (debut of a foldable form factor model, Touch ID to open on the iPhone Duo, new A20-series chips, and rear-camera systems) were largely as expected, and should drive continued strength in device demand.

Furthermore, AAPL's decision to bifurcate the iPhone 18 model launches with lower-end models expected (by us) in Spring 2027 should support continued iPhone ASP growth amidst ongoing device premiumization, further supported by explicit $100 price increases for the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max and the addition of a new premium 2 TB storage option for the iPhone 18 Pro.

We view this favorable price/mix from premium products as supportive of upside to revenue, which should partially mitigate margin headwinds.

Importantly, Apple's new Apple Upgrade program & attractive carrier promotions (Free/$99 iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max with eligible trade-in and plan) should support affordability against +$100 price increases. Additionally, as expected, AAPL announced new Apple Watch products (Apple Watch Series 12 and Ultra 4) and new AirPods 5. All iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models will be available for pre-order in over 63 countries and regions on Saturday, September 12th with availability beginning Friday, September 18th, while the iPhone Duo will be available for pre-order on Friday, October 16th with availability beginning Friday, October 23rd

Apple shares initially fell as Wednesday afternoon's launch event began around 1 p.m. ET, then reversed course and rallied 3% from the session low.

For new CEO John Ternus, the foldable iPhone's roughly $2,000 to $3,200 price tag sets up a major test of Apple's pricing power and ability to scale production. Strong demand could lift revenue and shift sales toward premium devices, but soaring memory costs coupled with modest price hikes could threaten margins, according to warnings on Wall Street desks. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 09:15