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8 Sailors In Lincoln Strike Group Attempted Suicide During Lengthy Deployment: Acting Navy Secretary

Eight sailors in the USS Abraham Lincoln's carrier strike group attempted suicide during a deployment that ran 286 days at sea, acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao has told Congress, weeks after the administration waved off reports of deteriorating conditions aboard the carrier.

The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) aircraft carrier departs Laem Chabang Port in Si Racha, Thailand, on on Sept. 6, 2026. Thananuwat Srirasant/Getty Images

In a Sept. 22 letter to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Cao said the attempts occurred across the strike group since the Lincoln deployed in November 2025, including the carrier's crew, its air wing, the escorting destroyers and embarked squadrons. None of the attempts was fatal. The Lincoln operated in the Middle East from January, supported U.S. forces through the war with Iran, and was relieved last month by the USS George Washington.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said in August that conditions aboard had been "completely misrepresented." That came after reports of rising suicide risk, food rationing, and broken laundry and toilet facilities. U.S. Central Command also called reports of a spike in suicidal thoughts false, along with a report that seven sailors had died in a fight aboard the carrier.

As The Epoch Times notes further, Gillibrand accused the Trump administration of failing to take care of service members.

"What Trump and Secretary Hegseth dismissed as 'fake news' turned out to be serious and deteriorating conditions for our service members," Gillibrand said in a statement on Sept. 24.

"Our troops and their families make immense sacrifices every single day, yet the president dismissed them with open disrespect."

Cao's letter to Gillibrand came in response to a letter that Gillibrand and a group of 14 other lawmakers sent to Hegseth last month demanding answers on the conditions of the Lincoln.

The sailors assigned to the Lincoln strike group "demonstrated exceptional resolve under demanding conditions," Cao said.

"Operational decisions to extend deployments are never made lightly; they are driven by dynamic global security environments and absolute necessity of protecting U.S. national security interests and our personnel and our allies abroad," he wrote.

Cao told Gillibrand that the Lincoln was deployed with five chaplains, three behavioral health technicians, one clinical social worker, one psychologist, one embedded integrated prevention counselor, and one expeditionary facility dog.

The acting Navy secretary also noted that a sailor assigned to the air wing went overboard in early August but was quickly recovered, received medical treatment, and was transferred off ship for additional care. In addition, another sailor had previously attempted to go overboard in March but was stopped by other sailors, Cao said.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, criticized the Trump administration for not reporting the number of suicide attempts sooner.

"There has been no administration that is less transparent," he told reporters on Sept. 24.

Warner said that while U.S. sailors will "do their job," they typically expect a six-month deployment.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Pentagon and the Navy for comment and did not receive a response before publication time.

Nathan Worcester contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 17:20

New Mexico's "Free" Childcare Program Is Another Costly Disaster

Authored by Paul Gessing via The Pacific Research Institute,

National media outlets which rarely report on any news from New Mexico were eager to report on the big news this past November that the Land of Enchantment had become the first state to have a "free" universal childcare program.

Other states may head down the same path, but before they do they need to know exactly what was done in New Mexico, why so many other similar programs created in New Mexico have failed over the years, and what unique circumstances have enabled the state's politicians to create a massive new entitlement program without legislative approval.

Many progressives see these programs as a way to help the urban poor in particular, but they often crowd out private alternatives and leave lower-income residents with fewer childcare options. They deplete budgets that would provide necessary public services, and keep states from embracing policies that improve their overall economies and business climate.

For starters, this childcare program came out of left field. In New Mexico's 2025 legislative session, the hot topic for my organization, the Rio Grande Foundation, and the business community was stopping an onerous paid family leave program. We won that battle.

No lawmaker introduced a single bill that year in the state's Democratic-controlled Legislature for taxpayer-funded daycare, but in September 2025 Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham outlined her own plans for a brand-new taxpayer-funded entitlement program: universal free childcare. According to legislative analysts, the program is estimated to cost $850 million annually to start.

The governor changed New Mexico's childcare program from one that covered families making up to 400% of the federal poverty level ($132,000 in 2026) to a universal benefit. The Legislature finally ratified the program in the following year's 2026 session, but the big political problem was having the governor unilaterally create a new government entitlement. That creates a dangerous precedent.

As an aside, the reason New Mexico can pay for this program - at least for now - is the unprecedented oil and gas boom in Southeastern New Mexico's Permian Basin, which it shares with Texas. The boom, which has lasted nearly a decade, has not done much for New Mexico's economy because lawmakers have either spent the largesse on universal pre-K, K-12, free college, and now free daycare - or they have stuffed it into the state's massive sovereign wealth fund, valued at $75 billion and growing fast.

Politics aside, the measure raises serious policy questions. Will this improve New Mexico's dismal outcomes for children? The state routinely ranks at the very bottom in terms of child outcomes nationally. Yet no evidence has been presented to that effect by the governor or legislators when they finally did get around to debating the program.

Barring improved conditions for children, will it lead to an increase in women in the workforce? So far, that is hard to see as New Mexico's already dismal workforce participation rate has actually dropped from 57.6% in November 2026 when free childcare started, to 56.9% as of June 2026.

Minnesota may have received the biggest national headlines with its "learning centers," but, unlike New Mexico's childcare program, Minnesota's program is not free to the user. It is also limited to low-income families and only 22,000 children participate. New Mexico's program is free to all participants, and it already serves 33,000 children before it became universal.

From an urban-policy perspective, California's similar experiment with free transitional kindergarten (TK), which often serves as a replacement for childcare, might be instructive. "Many advocates hoped the move would ease childcare shortages and close learning gaps between rich and poor," according to a 2025 article in the Hechinger Report. Instead, a UC Berkeley study looking at results in Los Angeles found that more than 150 private childcare centers subsequently shuttered.

These mostly served lower-income residents, whereas the "biggest beneficiaries" of the publicly funded program were children in the city's wealthiest neighborhoods. The best theory is the new program "siphoned 4-year-olds away from community childcare centers and private preschools" and existing "centers lost revenue when children left, and it wasn't easy to pivot to serving younger toddlers or infants," per the article. The taxpayer-funded program destroyed the economics of childcare centers, thus leaving the urban poor with fewer options.

Broadly speaking, these costly state-funded programs put an enormous strain on the state's budget, thus precluding lawmakers from passing tax cuts and economic reforms that are geared towards growing and diversifying New Mexico's economy and funding basic services. Between Nov. 1, 2025 and the end of New Mexico's fiscal year in July, the program was running a deficit of approximately $83 million.

Two whistleblowers have come forward claiming they were retaliated against for calling out these deficits. The Early Childhood Education and Care Department's chief financial officer, Carmel Pacheco-Aragon, filed suit, alleging she was placed on administrative leave after reporting on the shortfall and warning about improper fund transfers without legislative approval.

The department's former budget director, Kimberly Gonzales, filed a subsequent lawsuit claiming she was wrongfully terminated for publicly reporting that the department as a whole was facing a $258 million shortfall, driven by the state's new universal childcare program. Nevertheless, in July New Mexico's Supreme Court ratified the program without so much as a hearing.

While other blue states will undoubtedly look at the idea, I don't expect many of them to follow through with it due to the steep cost. Will New Mexico's program be a beacon for other states to shoot for in the future or yet another costly disaster by one of the most poorly run states in America? My money is on the latter, but only time will tell.

Paul Gessing is president of the Rio Grande Foundation, an Albuquerque-based think tank focused on the importance of individual freedom, limited government and economic opportunity.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 17:00

California Supreme Court Orders Sheriff To Return 650,000 Seized Redistricting Referendum Ballots

California's Supreme Court on Thursday unanimously ordered Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco to hand back roughly 650,000 ballots he seized from last November's Proposition 50 special election, and to halt his criminal investigation into the vote. Proposition 50, approved on Nov. 4, 2025, authorized a Legislature-drawn congressional map favorable to Democrats for 2026 through 2030.

An election worker moves mail-in ballots to be organized for tabulation at the Los Angeles County Ballot Processing Center during California's state primary election in the City of Industry, Calif., on June 2, 2026. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP

Bianco, a Republican who lost this year's gubernatorial primary, opened the probe after a local group, the Riverside Election Integrity Team, compared handwritten precinct intake logs with the certified count and alleged a gap of 45,896 votes. He obtained search warrants and seized the ballots in around 1,000 boxes. Riverside County Registrar of Voters Art Tinoco says the group misread the data and the actual gap was 103.

Chief Justice Patricia Guerrero, writing for a unanimous court, called the seizure "unlawful." In Cervantes v. Bianco and a companion case, Bonta v. Bianco, the court held that state law requires ballots to remain in election officials' custody even during a criminal investigation, and that Bianco must obey Attorney General Rob Bonta's order to pause his probe.

As The Epoch Times notes further, the court ordered the sheriff to return the ballots "forthwith," handle them only as needed to comply with the court's order, take no further action on the November 2025 special election investigation pending Bonta's review, and provide materials Bonta requested in a March 6 letter. The court had stayed the investigation in April.

Bianco's attorney had told the court that as sheriff, Bianco had a legal duty to open an investigation after receiving a complaint, and that he adhered to the state penal code after the first search warrants were issued in February.

The court disagreed.

Guerrero said a search warrant does not supersede the state's election law.

"If election misconduct is suspected, the Elections Code provides several mechanisms for law enforcement to review and examine ballots without compromising their integrity," she said.

"But those procedures were not followed and the type of seizure that occurred here directly conflicts with the Elections Code's carefully considered and controlling provisions."

Chad Dunn, legal director of the UCLA Voting Rights Project, which brought one of the lawsuits challenging Bianco's actions, said after the rulings that the ballots are public property.

"They must be protected through the processes the Legislature has established. This ruling provides important clarity for election officials, law enforcement, and voters across California," he said.

Bonta Welcomes Rulings

Bonta hailed the court rulings, saying they "bring important clarity for our constitutional system in California," and that he was "grateful" the court affirmed his authority to supervise county sheriffs.

"Election fraud can and should be investigated. But misuse of criminal investigative tools - without any evidence that a crime was committed - needlessly undermines trust in our elections system and in law enforcement," he said in a statement.

Bianco said he will obey the rulings, but not "the message behind them."

Bianco said the rulings gave the attorney general "unchecked power over any investigation in the state of California."

The rulings fail to address the 45,896-ballot gap between the certified tally and the records obtained from the registrar, he said.

"The Registrar said it was a paperwork error. Bonta said stop looking. I got warrants from a judge and started looking anyway. That is my job," Bianco told The Epoch Times.

Days before the rulings, on Sept. 19, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, signed a bill that makes it a felony to seize ballots, election records, or certified voting technology before election results are officially certified.

Jill McLaughlin and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 16:40

On The Abiding Mystery Of This 'Lunatic' Fourth Turning

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Clusterfuck Nation,

The Deluge

"The country looks pathetic because too many of its men became pathetic first and then demanded the rest of us treat the collapse as a moral achievement."

- LHGrey on Substack

An abiding mystery of this lunatic Fourth Turning is how it came to be that the supposed intellectual elite of America was the class that so shamelessly lost its collective mind, got behind ideas that ranged from absurd to disgraceful - "Defund the Police," "boys in the girl's locker room," "voter ID is unfair," "dismantle capitalism," "no one is illegal," "mostly peaceful riots," "Covid vaccine mandates" "CIA-run censorship," - and finally decided to march under the banner of communism, history's most floridly ruinous political program.

The answer is that intellectuals are in the employ of the racketeering operation that is Washington's permanent bureaucracy married to the Democratic Party's laundering of taxpayer dollars into all the parasitical enterprises that this combine feeds. And the more the money-flows get cut, the more the intellectuals fear losing their fat salaries and their status. In desperation, they are now trying to just burn the USA house down.

At least you don't hear "Slava Ukraini," anymore, since it's so far beyond obvious that the EU has been using that sad-sack place as a launching pad for World War III, and evidently even "progressives" have decided that's not such a hot idea. (The EU's elites might even be crazier than America's.)

History, I remind you, is a trickster. It's also a cardinal irony of the times that this Fourth Turning's "Gray Champion" role fell to one Donald Trump. He is at once cartoonish in speech, appearance, and predilections while being stunningly effective, indefatigable, and intrepid in his job as president. His mere presence on the scene drives his opponents to fugues of rancor. Their failure to eliminate him by either bullets or the most fantastically fallacious lawfare has led their favored political party to a frank break with reality, possibly close to suicide.

There was a silver lining to the ludicrous election shenanigans of 2020 that stuffed "Joe Biden" in the White House and marooned Mr. Trump out in the political wilderness. After being naively buffaloed by his Deep State enemies in Term No. 1, he got a great opportunity to stand back and see exactly how they operated with their hands on the levers of power, and then to map out the money-driven matrix of nefarious orgs that nourished these enemies. And even while getting dragged through the courts in one bogus case after another, and dodging bullets, Mr. Trump was able to lay coherent big plans to defeat these enemies.

Reality becomes ever harder to discern for a creature (the human being) who depends on a consensus about what's real as driven by language, the engine of agreement. When you wreck language, you make agreement impossible, and reality turns to a gray ooze. The Lefty-leftists changed-up language like crazy until every word, every idea attached to every word, became the opposite of what everyone thought it was. The strategy backfired badly, because it was the Lefties who thereby destroyed their own reality, making themselves crazy as well as ridiculous. Imagine a Supreme Court nominee, a female, as it happens, who claims under oath that she can't define what a woman is.

The Lefties who fell for this were trained up exquisitely by their own Leftie mentors in the universities, who were all in on Saul Alinsky's depraved Bible of political dirty-fighting, Rules for Radicals, the number-one rule being: accuse your opponents of doing whatever you are doing. It helped their cause a lot that women were overtaking men demographically in higher ed and in the management jobs they segued into after college. Women, being smaller and not as physically strong as men, are more inclined to dirty fighting. That has been the sad recent history of the Democratic Party, and now it's floundering in a netherworld of mental illness.

It was in the nature of conservatives to resist all the attempts at the language changes foisted on the country. They generally did not believe that men could become women by wishing it, or that the "diversity" provided by 20-million illegal immigrants was "our strength," or that mothers had to be called "birthing people." Their consensus about reality was not fractured.

The once-powerful elite can't stand not having power. They still have plenty of money, but they probably want to keep what's left of it, and now that all the laundering of taxpayer money through NGOs is ending, it will be ever harder to finance their power-grabbing with other people's money. The midterms are more of a challenge for them than their official information channels let on, and the Woke slop on the Internet isn't helping much either.

Apart from some traumatic "October surprise," I now think it's unlikely that the president will invoke a national security executive order to require anything like uniform voter ID across the country. Instead, it looks like several executive agencies will monitor activities at and around the polling places. Sec'y MarkWayne Mullin of the Department of Homeland Security stated that ICE agents could be present at polls. Lawsuits have been filed seeking to block that. Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon declared that the DOJ intends to send 1000 lawyers and trained legal staff to select districts. The DOJ has also warned state and county election officials that fooling around with ballots will trigger a hard finding out this time.

If there's trouble this year, it's more likely to happen after the election, when Democrats refuse to accept the results. Lawfare ninjas Marc Elias and Norm Eisen will swing into overdrive attempting to paralyze the nation in post-election lawsuits. As for riots, the NGOs know that the FBI is watching their remaining money flows to outfits such as Antifa, or whatever remains of Black Lives Matter, or MEChA (Movimiento Estudiantil Chicanx de Aztlán), or groups affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, etc. Billionaires like Neville Roy Singham are reportedly getting the heebie-jeebies. Soros will fork over around $30-million in cash to candidates, but I doubt he'll sponsor any street-fighting. He and his successor son, Alex, are already skating on thin ice.

Anyway, the intellectual elite have thoroughly disgraced themselves. The still-unfolding Covid-19 aftermath sets off a slow-motion train-wreck of disgraced experts, one after another. The spectacle of Dr. Fauci taking the 5th last month is not the end of that business. Almost certainly there will not be any indictments of the many Deep State traitors before November 3 - the president does not aim to be accused of election interference. But after the midterms, the deluge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 16:20

Assaults On ICE Officers Increased 1,600% Since January 2025: DHS

Assaults against U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers have increased significantly in recent months as the Trump administration has cracked down on illegal immigration across the country.

Under the Trump administration, there were 647 assaults against ICE officials from Jan. 20, 2025, to Sept. 20, 2026, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in a press release on Thursday. The number of assaults represents an increase of 1,649 percent from the 37 assaults on ICE officials from Jan. 20, 2021, to Sept. 20, 2022, under the Biden administration.

ICE has been heavily criticized by many U.S. lawmakers during President Donald Trump's second term, as the administration has expanded detention and deportation operations throughout the United States. In the press release, the Department of Homeland Security called for politicians to end the use of "hateful and violent rhetoric" targeting ICE.

"The brave men and women of ICE, who are simply enforcing the laws mandated by Congress and protecting the American people, are under attack every single day. Since President Trump unleashed ICE to do their jobs, assaults against them have risen by more than 1,600% in the first year and a half of the administration," DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin said, according to the statement.

As Timothy Frudd reports further for The Epoch Times, Thursday's press release listed numerous examples of violent acts committed against ICE officials. Examples included a Minneapolis rioter biting off an ICE agent's finger; an illegal immigrant hammering an ICE officer in the face with a metal coffee cup in Houston; and a group of individuals shooting at ICE officers at the Prairieland Detention Center in Alvarado, Texas, which resulted in a police officer being shot.

Other examples included a sniper killing two ICE detainees and injuring a third detainee at an ICE facility in Dallas, an illegal immigrant allegedly soliciting the murder of ICE agents in a video on social media, and Los Angeles rioters throwing Molotov cocktails and rocks and launching fireworks at ICE authorities and Border Patrol officers.

Mullin said the increase in assaults on ICE officials has been caused by the lies spread by "sanctuary politicians and their foot soldiers who are involved in anti-ICE riots and other acts of violence."

In addition to providing examples of violent actions targeting ICE, DHS also shared examples of lawmakers engaging in what the department called "hateful rhetoric."

The examples included Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, comparing ICE to a "modern-day Gestapo" and Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) accusing ICE of "turning us into Nazi Germany."

"DHS is calling on these sanctuary politicians to stop attacking federal law enforcement, stop putting the needs of illegal aliens ahead of the safety of American citizens, and to start working with us to make America safe again," Mullin said.

In addition to increased assaults on ICE officers, agents are also facing a more than 6,000 percent increase in threats, White House border czar Tom Homan told Epoch Times senior editor Jan Jekielek in an interview airing on Sept. 26. Homan also said ICE vehicle assaults have increased by 1,300 percent.

"I blame a lot of that on the misinformation being fed by some media to the American people," Homan said. "It's constant lies."

The border czar noted that ICE is not perfect and that agents will make mistakes. However, he said the agents are held accountable in those cases.

In addition to misinformation, Homan blamed hateful rhetoric, which he said was being pushed by local, state, and federal lawmakers. Some people have been emboldened to "take action" against ICE officials after hearing agents be compared to Nazis, he said.

"If the hateful rhetoric was stopped, the masks would come off. If the hateful rhetoric was stopped, there'd be less tragedy," he said.

"I truly believe that because now people are emboldened because they hear 'ICE isn't a real law enforcement agency. ICE are Nazis. They're not really cops.' So now people are not complying with them."

The Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration, including sweeping community raids and mass deportations, has received pushback from the Democratic Party, which has called for ICE to be reformed or abolished. In August, Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said that there "has to be a better way" to handle the issue of immigration than the way the Trump administration has handled it.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 15:45

Bitcoin's 'Last Resort' Quantum-Safe Solution Just Got 79% Cheaper: StarkWare

Authored by Felix Ng via Cointelegraph,

The estimated computational cost to prepare a quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction has fallen below $67 after a week of optimization, down from the roughly $320 spent on the first such mainnet transaction in August, according to StarkWare.

The results came after participants in the Quantum-Safe Bitcoin Optimization Challenge found ways to push down the GPU computation needed to build a quantum-safe Bitcoin transaction.

The reduction could make the experimental defense (which doesn't require changes to the network's consensus rules) against future quantum attacks more practical for Bitcoin holders. However, the latest optimizations have only been demonstrated in benchmark tests.

"A construction that costs a few hundred dollars per transaction is a demo. One that costs $67 is closer to something a holder with a large unexposed balance might reach for in an emergency," StarkWare wrote in its Sept. 23 update. The dashboard now shows the estimated cost has dropped to $66.

Quantum-Safe Bitcoin an "emergency" solution

StarkWare researcher Avihu Levy published the Quantum-Safe Bitcoin (QSB) design in April, outlining a way to add hash-based protection against quantum attacks without changing Bitcoin's consensus rules. At the time, he described it as a "last resort measure" due to costs, complexity and limited applicability, while continuing to advocate for protocol-level changes.

According to StarkWare, the first QSB transaction was mined and confirmed on Aug. 26, with engineering work from Tomer Giladi and direct submission through MARA's Slipstream service. Preparing it required approximately 3,100 GPU-hours across roughly 100 GPUs, at a compute cost of about $320, excluding Bitcoin network fees.

To find ways to bring that cost down, StarkWare, Yukon Research and Eigen Labs launched the QSB challenge on Sept. 16, inviting developers, researchers and AI agents to make the transaction-building software faster and more efficient.

In its latest update, StarkWare said the challenge produced 62 accepted improvements across two computational tasks needed to prepare a QSB transaction. According to StarkWare, this ended up cutting the estimated computing cost by about 79%, based on benchmark tests.

The development comes amid increasing concern that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break the elliptic-curve digital signatures used by Bitcoin, potentially allowing attackers to steal coins whose public keys are exposed.

Researchers are developing quantum-resistant protections, including QSB. However, StarkWare said it still favors a soft fork - a change to Bitcoin's consensus rules - as a better "long-term answer" for broad quantum protection on Bitcoin.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 15:25

Supreme Court Clears Trump Admin To Use Voter Citizenship Verification

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Supreme Court on Sept. 25 said the Trump administration can use an updated immigration database to verify the citizenship of voters.

A majority of justices agreed to stay pending the outcome of an appeal of a June order from a federal judge that barred the use of a revamped database called the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements system.

U.S. District Judge Sparkle Sooknanan had found that federal officials were violating the privacy rights of American citizens by disclosing the citizenship status and Social Security numbers, among other data, in the restructured database. She vacated the 2025 update, which connected Social Security information to the system.

A federal appeals court later upheld the decision.

Trump administration officials then asked the Supreme Court to intervene, arguing in a Sept. 8 brief that the order "threatens the integrity of upcoming elections by vacating the federal government's authority to internally use Social Security data when fulfilling its duty to respond to requests by states to verify the citizenship of individuals for voting and other purposes."

Six justices sided with the administration. In a per curiam opinion, they said that claims from the organizations that sued over the updated database "likely lack merit," including the allegation that federal officials are violating federal laws, because Congress authorized the Department of Homeland Security to request and receive citizenship information and immigration status from other agencies, including the Social Security Administration, in a 1996 statute called the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act.

The majority also said that keeping in place the prohibition "inhibits the Federal Government's efforts to assist state and local agencies."

States regularly use the system. Texas Secretary of State Robert Howden recently said the state in the fall of 2025 ran the names of its 18 million registered voters through the database and identified 2,724 people who may be noncitizens.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote a dissent that was joined by Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan.

They said that connecting the database to the Social Security Administration's data did not fit under the "strict limits" imposed by the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act, and that the law did not override other statutes such as the Privacy Act that organizations say the administration violated.

"The harm caused by burdening or disenfranchising even a few lawful voters outweighs the nonexistent harm that the Government experiences when it is prevented from taking an action that it likely lacks the authority to take," Jackson wrote.

"This imbalance, along with the Government's improbable merits arguments, should have compelled the Court to deny the stay."

The White House and a lawyer representing the organizations did not immediately return requests for comment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 14:50

US Cybersecurity Agency Releases Election Security Plan Ahead Of November Midterms

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The nation’s cybersecurity agency released its election infrastructure security plan on Thursday, ahead of the November midterms set for Nov. 3.

Voters cast their ballots in the primary for midterm elections at Sanbornton Town Hall in Sanbornton, N.H., on Sept. 8, 2026. CJ Gunther/Getty Images

The 13-page document outlines potential threats to voting systems and lists no-cost services that the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) offers state and local officials.

“In July of this year, Secretary Mullin tasked CISA with developing the Election Infrastructure Security Plan, which had been developed to help partners defend against cyber and physical threats to election infrastructure,” it reads.

“Election security is not a partisan issue. Election security is national security.”

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin had initially said the plan would be published by mid-August.

CISA, created in 2018 under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), has warned states about foreign threats.

The new plan warns of software flaws, voter registration database hacks, insider threats, and physical risks like bomb threats that hit some polling places in 2024.

“Many longstanding election practices such as handling ballots in bipartisan teams of two, allowing observers to be present during ballot counting, and maintaining chain-of-custody procedures—were specifically designed to reduce the likelihood and impact of insider threats,” the plan reads.

It says longstanding practices can handle most of those problems.

“Use paper ballots that can be easily reviewed to ensure transparency, auditability, and resilience against software failures or manipulation,” the report reads.

The goal, the document states, is “to ensure the American people can trust voting systems and know that physical safety measures will be in place when they go to their assigned polling locations to cast their votes.”

It also says DHS has “consistently supported CISA’s delivery of cybersecurity and physical security services to election officials.”

The plan names no specific 2026 threats from Russia, Iran, or China.

China-Made Voting Parts

However, Mullin did say in a letter released on Aug. 27 that parts of many voting machines used in the United States are made in China.

“Voting machines with components manufactured by foreign adversaries introduce significant security risks,” Mullin said. “These vulnerabilities mean that malicious actors could potentially compromise election infrastructure at any stage of the supply chain, even before the machines are assembled or deployed. If a component is tampered with during manufacturing, it could serve as a point-of-entry for hackers, allowing for the possibility of synchronized attacks across multiple machines and jurisdictions.”

In July, the heads of four U.S. intelligence and national security agencies backed key aspects of President Donald Trump’s claim that China engaged in election interference by targeting American voter registration data.

A fact sheet released at the time by the White House Government Transparency Task Force states that China and its proxies bought, stole, or hacked voter data belonging to as many as 220 million Americans, including some information that was not publicly available.

The fact sheet notes that, for a foreign country’s actions to amount to “election interference,” they do not have to change the actual results.

“That definition includes a foreign power’s targeting of voter registration infrastructure or data,” the task force states, citing declassified documents produced by the U.S. intelligence community.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 14:20

Woke Developer Bungie Apologizes To Gamers...But Not Really

The mass conservative boycott against woke companies and far-left content has been wildly successful.  While the political left has repeatedly attempted such boycotts and "cancellations" over the years, not one has ever been as effective as the "Chud" revolution against woke media.  

It took a few years (along with a slowdown in outside funding from ESG programs and venture capital), but some of the biggest corporations in the world have been forced to acknowledge that ideological content just isn't working.  The much vaunted "modern audience" that progressive stalwarts bragged about failed to materialize.  It was always a myth.  It never existed. 

These businesses killed their own bottom line and alienated long-time customers in the name of a bizarre cult religion representing a small portion of the global population.  And even more embarrassing for companies like Bungie, those weirdos don't spend much money on video games anyway. 

The Bungie game studio achieved widespread acclaim with early installments of the Halo series, a direct competitor to Call Of Duty.  But, around 2014-2016, something changed.  The company started listening to the Twitter mob (a leftist echo chamber) and began hiring clucking broods of woke developers. 

Bungie integrated LGBT, DEI and feminist propaganda into their games.  Their senior narrative designer publicly defended the notorious Sweet Baby Inc., a woke consultation group known for "terrorizing" gaming companies into injecting woke content into their products.  Though, there is no direct evidence that Sweet Baby Inc. ever consulted for Bungie. 

To summarize the attitude of these people: They insist that they be able to "see themselves" in every media product, to the detriment of everyone else.  

 

The homosexual fantasies and trans delusions of developers were forced into character stories and designs.  The women got uglier and more masculine.  The men were more feminine and fruity.  Characters that were never gay were retconned and turned gay.  The minority pie chart was on full display and white straight men were quickly phased out. 

Bungie's Destiny 2 ultimately collapsed and Marathon was a disaster for the studio leading to mass player walkouts.  Sony took a $765M impairment on Bungie in FY2025, tied to Destiny 2’s slide and Marathon’s launch quarter (That is the company admitting the portfolio is worth a lot less than they paid).   

Finally, this week, the truth came out - Bungie is facing disaster, so much so that they posted a video "apologizing" to their gamer customers. 

However, veiled in a flurry of corporate-speak is a refusal to admit what the real problem is; the real reason why they failed.  At no point does Bungie admit that their company was destroyed by woke ideology.  At no point do they admit "Get Woke, Go Broke" was right all along. 

Instead, they pretend to offer an olive branch while barrelling ahead with games like Marathon that are already catastrophic failures.  Games that no one wants to play and will never want to play.  They say they want to listen to their customers, but not really.  Their customers are telling them to cleanse the company of wokeness, but they won't even acknowledge that wokeness is the original source of the problem. 

We have seen this time and time again with desperate media companies seeking a reprieve from the boycotts; they beg the audience to come back, they might even fire a bunch of their activist employees, but they never admit that progressive cultism poisoned their relationship with their customers.  

Until these companies are willing to do this, there is really no reason to give them another chance.  Until they face the truth and renounce the woke cult, it is perhaps better if they are allowed to die so they can be replaced by someone better.   

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 14:05

Canada's Oil Patch On Track For Biggest M&A Wave In A Decade

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

Nearly a decade ago, the Canadian Oil Patch recorded a major asset sale and consolidation wave as oil majors exited the oil sands in favor of higher margins in U.S. shale oil as well as environmental concerns amid the ESG investing craze.

To wit, Shell Plc (NYSE:SHEL) sold the majority of its oil sands interests to Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (NYSE:CNQ) in 2017 a transaction valued at roughly $11.1 billion CAD ($8.5 billion USD), while Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE) acquired most of ConocoPhillips' (NYSE:COP) Canadian assets for C$17.7 billion (approximately US$13.2 billion). And now a similar dynamic is unfolding across Canada's energy sector: Canada's oil patch has recorded over $30 billion in mergers and acquisitions so far in the current year, with Wall Street projecting that this year's final tally will surpass the $53 billion recorded in 2017. However, this year's M&A wave is fundamentally different from its 2017 peer since it's mainly being driven by high oil and asset prices amid the Middle East conflict rather than a desperate attempt to dispose off distressed assets, "Whereas recently, we've seen a lot of clients merging from positions of strength, because it's the best outcome for shareholders at the time," Raj Singh, CEO at Calgary-based Fuelled Inc., told the Financial Post. "That's a healthier dynamic, and it tends to produce more durable combinations."

So far, this year's key highlight has been Shell's takeover of Arc Resources for $16.4 billion as the Dutch major looks to boost its depleted energy reserves, secure low-cost production and insulate its global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain from the Middle Eastern fallout. Prior to the acquisition, Shell faced an existential threat, with an estimated reserve life of just 5.3 years - well below the 10-year industry benchmark for European supermajors. ARC Resources immediately adds 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) to Shell's output, improving its projected annual production growth rate from 1% to roughly 4% through 2030.

To sweeten the deal further, ARC Resources is a premier, pure-play producer in Western Canada's natural-gas-heavy Montney Basin, while Shell owns a 40% operating stake in the massive LNG Canada export facility in British Columbia. By absorbing ARC, Shell effectively integrates its supply chain, securing the upstream gas needed to feed LNG Canada and paving the way to greenlight a Phase 2 expansion that could double the facility's size. Finally, whereas ARC is heavily focused on natural gas, roughly 40% of its output (and 70% of its underlying economic value) comes from high-margin oil and condensate liquids, with the asset mix increasing Shell's exposure to low-cost, long-duration liquids.

In yet another high-dollar deal, Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (OTCPK:TNEYF) and Headwater Exploration Inc. (OTCPK:CDDRF) recently announced a definitive agreement to merge in an all-stock transaction valued at C$10 billion ($7.25 billion). The combined company expects production exceeding 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), making it the largest publicly traded pure-play Clearwater oil producer. Tamarack has already secured 25,000 barrels per day of Trans Mountain pipeline capacity starting in Q1 2027 that will allow the company to access West Coast markets, alongside long-term access to Cushing, Oklahoma, via the proposed South Bow Prairie Connector.

And just last week, American institutional private equity firm Carlyle expanded its Canadian energy footprint by forming a new entity, Avenrock Energy, to acquire Calgary-based private operator Parallax Energy Operating Inc. from Carnelian Energy Capital. Although details of the deal were not divulged, analysts believe the transaction cost hovers around $1 billion. That marked the private equity giant's second multi-billion-dollar scale push into Alberta's energy sector within a 12-month window after it acquired Kiwetinohk Energy Corp. in October for approximately $1.4 billion.

Parallax holds a 75% working interest across roughly 300,000 gross acres situated in Alberta's highly coveted East Shale Duvernay formation and gross production of 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), weighted heavily toward high-value light oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Carlyle aims to leverage the Parallax infrastructure as a launchpad to scale an expansive Western Canadian light oil platform.

And, the energy experts are saying we are likely to see more deals like these before the year closes, "Inflation and commodity pricing have simply made producing assets very attractive right now," Singh told the Financial Post. "When corporate development teams run the numbers today, acquisitions look appealing and can pull forward returns for shareholders."

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 13:50

"Moving The Goalposts": BofA Downgrades Nike, Slashes Target As Turnaround Story Delayed

Nike shares fell 2% in New York premarket trading after BofA retail analyst Lorraine Hutchinson downgraded the world's largest athletic footwear and apparel company, warning that its "turnaround is taking longer" than expected. With shares trading at 2014 levels, the downgrade adds new woes to a recovery story that might not materialize until 2028.

In the report published earlier today, titled "Moving the goalposts," Hutchinson downgraded Nike to "Underperform" from "Neutral" and cut her price target to $30 from $47, implying 17% downside from Thursday's close of $35.99.

Hutchinson now expects a sales decline through 2027, abandoning her earlier call for a 1H27 recovery and pushing the turnaround into 2028. She cut fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates by 11% and 12%, respectively. Her 2027 forecast of $1.43 a share sits roughly 14% below Visible Alpha consensus.

She added color:

Risks are rising, downgrading to Underperform

We see downside risk to EPS estimates and valuation as Nike's innovation continues to be overshadowed by a pressured classics business, while category and macro pressures build. We are cutting F27E/F28E EPS by 11%/12%; we now expect negative sales growth through F27E versus our prior view of a Spring inflection. Our F27E EPS is 14% below VA consensus. The dividend payout ratio is over 100% and, as a result, we are reducing our income rating to 8 (same/lower) from 7 (same/higher). Our $30 PO (was $47) is based on a 16x P/E (was 22x), now aligned with the peer average.

Wholesale momentum should slow as sell-through lags

NA wholesale has been an area of strength, growing 14% in F26 vs. flat total sales growth. In some instances, sell-through is lagging sell-in due to declines in classic styles and new launches that are missing expectations. This puts forward order books at risk as retailers become less willing to make a bet on newness until success is proven. We see progress slowing in 2Q as the business laps 24% growth, and remaining challenged in 2H as the current issues pressure Spring orders. We model NA wholesale sales declines beginning in 2Q through the rest of F27.

China reset faces a tougher demand backdrop

China is in flux, and Nike's reduction in partner online sales will likely cause promotional pressure through 2Q. After that, Nike is expected to present the brand more cohesively online. Competition is intense; the quest for newness is higher than ever, and we see risk that sales decline at least through F27. BofA's Luxury Goods team's China fieldtrip takeaways included weak sports demand, with product newness not resonating, moderation of running outperformance, and excess inventory driven by low demand. 

Despite Nike's 44% year-to-date bear market, Hutchinson said it's "unlikely that the stock will hold a premium multiple in the face of further EPS cuts. We see some green shoots on product innovation, but those have been dwarfed by weaker larger casual categories."

She added, "We think the multiple could compress as the turn is pushed to F28."

According to Bloomberg data, there are 15 "Buy" ratings, 25 "Neutral" ratings and 7 "Sell" ratings on the stock, with a 12-month price target of $46.10.

The stock is already down 80% from its 2021 high of $177. Where stabilization occurs and halts the vicious bear market remains to be seen, but it could materialize next year as Wall Street analysts see a turnaround ahead. Yet BofA analysts have pushed that expectation back to 2028. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 13:35

Suspected US Drone Strike Kills Alleged Al-Qaeda Member In Yemen

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

A suspected US drone strike hit a vehicle carrying two alleged al-Qaeda members in Yemen's southeastern Hadramout province on Tuesday, China's Xinhua news agency has reported.

A local security source told the news agency that one of the men in the vehicle was killed while the other was wounded. So far, there's been no confirmation of the strike from the US, but the US hasn't officially acknowledged an airstrike against Yemen's al-Qaeda affiliate, known as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) since 2020, even though it has continued the drone war.

Earlier this year, the Yemen Data Project reported that from January 2025 to March 2026, it found 21 reports of US drone strikes in Yemen through an investigation of open-source material, attacks that were separate from the US bombing campaign against Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, that took place last year.

The report of a US drone strike in southeast Yemen comes as fighting continues to rage in western Yemen between Ansar Allah and Saudi-backed forces since the war reignited back in July due to Saudi airstrikes on the Sanaa International Airport. The US is backing Saudi Arabia's airstrikes with targeting and intelligence support, as it did during the war from 2015 to 2022.

US weapons sold to Saudi Arabia and the UAE throughout the conflict ended up in the hands of militants linked to AQAP, according to a 2019 report from CNN, and the coalition was known to recruit al-Qaeda fighters in southern Yemen to fight against Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis.

Ansar Allah is known to be a fierce enemy of al-Qaeda, and before the US supported the Saudi-led coalition's intervention in Yemen in 2015, the US was cooperating with Ansar Allah and sharing intelligence with the group as part of its strategy against AQAP.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 13:20

Chinese Hacking Groups Used Shared Attack Tool Against US Aerospace Firms, NGOs

Authored by Arthur Zhang via The Epoch Times,

Chinese cyber-espionage groups used the same sophisticated hacking tool in campaigns targeting U.S. aerospace companies, nongovernmental organizations, mining companies, and commodity traders, according to two cybersecurity firms that separately investigated the activity.

A member of a hacking group is using his computer at their office in Dongguan, Guangdong province, China, on Aug. 4, 2020. Nicolas Asfouri/AFP via Getty Images

Volexity, a Virginia-based cybersecurity firm, said on Sept. 21 its discovery of another Chinese hacking group using the same tool added to evidence of coordinated sharing within China's cyber-espionage community.

The company said the widespread adoption "suggests a coordinated effort within the Chinese CNE community," referring to computer network exploitation, and assessed that the core tool was likely shared, customized, and used by multiple groups.

Proofpoint, a U.S. cybersecurity company, separately documented on Sept. 9 the same capability in campaigns against a small number of U.S. NGOs, mining companies, commodity-trading firms, and multiple U.S. aerospace companies. It found several espionage groups adopting the tool within days of one another, with most of the observed clusters having a suspected China nexus.

Neither company has publicly identified who developed the tool or how it reached the different hacking groups.

The Epoch Times asked both companies whether they had identified its developer or distributor and whether they had found additional U.S. targets. Neither responded by publication time.

Same Tool, Different Targets

The hacking groups pursued different victims and installed different spying software after gaining access, but researchers found that they relied on the same underlying break-in capability.

The attacks took advantage of previously unknown weaknesses in Google Chrome and Microsoft Windows. If successful, they could allow hackers to install spying software and maintain access to a victim's computer.

Volexity said the additional Chinese operator it identified used the same attack chain on Sept. 3 and 4, when the vulnerabilities were still unpatched.

The company cautioned that what Volexity and Proofpoint have observed may represent only part of the activity.

"The full scope and impact are likely far broader," Volexity said.

Fake Websites Used to Reach Targets

The newly identified group also used fake versions of trusted news and policy websites to lure intended targets.

In one campaign, Asian government entities received a Chinese-language email centered on imprisoned Hong Kong activist Chow Hang-tung. The link led to a fake site impersonating China Digital Times, a U.S.-based publication covering China, censorship, and politics, according to Volexity.

Another fake site impersonated the Center for American Progress (CAP), a Washington-based policy organization.

Volexity also identified fake sites mimicking two publications; The Conversation, which publishes articles by academic researchers, and the Borneo Bulletin, an English-language daily newspaper in Brunei. The company said the range of impersonated organizations may offer clues about the intended targets.

The Epoch Times has reached out to CAP and China Digital Times for comments. Neither responded by publication time.

Separate China-Linked Activity

Separately, cybersecurity firm ESET on Sept. 17 identified a China-aligned espionage campaign targeting governments and other organizations across Latin America, including a Panamanian legal entity involved in the dispute over two major ports near the Panama Canal. ESET has not identified a technical link between that activity and the campaigns documented by Volexity.

Barbara James, a public relations specialist at ESET, told The Epoch Times on Sept. 23 that malware was deployed on some computers in the Panamanian organization's network in late December 2025 and January 2026, with further attempts between February and June of 2026.

James said ESET's assessment of the likely espionage purpose was based on which organization was targeted and when.

ESET did not directly observe the hackers accessing or removing materials related to the port dispute. James said the limits of the company's anonymized data meant it also could not rule out that such access occurred.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 12:45

Zelensky Claims 'Final Decision' Made To Let Ukraine Build Patriots, After Trump Reversed Pledge

Back in July President Trump strongly signaled that he was greenlighting the ability of Ukraine to produce its own patriot anti-air defense missiles. Trump declared in the context of a Turkey-hosted NATO summit that Washington would give Ukraine "the right to make Patriots" - after Zelensky had been relentless in his requests, framing it as urgent and for the protection of cities and civilians.

But since then there's been denials and ambiguity surrounding the pledge. President Trump had at the time of the summer NATO summit admitted the risks involved, also while trying to press ahead to get the warring sides to the peace table, conceding, "It's an escalation but it’s also an escalation that can help lead to an end [of the war]."

On Friday while attending the UN General Assembly meeting in New York, Zelensky told journalists that the White House has made its 'final decision' to okay the Patriot production scheme.

Getty Images

The Ukrainian leader claimed: "At our last meeting, President Trump emphasized to me that yes, I have made a final decision. Ukraine will receive licenses for the production of Patriot missiles."

However, the White House has yet to affirm this, and hasn't issued comment on Zelensky's latest assertions. It seems premature, and a ploy to pressure Trump into agreeing.

The Guardian reviews that Trump had publicly backed down from the Patriot plan by mid-summer:

Donald Trump has backed off a promise to let Ukraine manufacture its own Patriot air defense interceptors, telling reporters that handing over the underlying technology was “a hard thing to give away” during a cabinet meeting at Camp David.

The retreat, billed by the White House as “something different” for the cabinet to experience together, was the first such meeting at the presidential compound of Trump’s second term.

It also became the venue for the US president to unpick, in real time, a commitment he made to Volodymyr Zelenskyy just a few days earlier.

Asked whether he was ready to grant Kyiv a license to build Patriots domestically – something he had suggested at a Nato summit in Turkey just this month, and which the Ukrainian president described as a productive topic in their White House meeting on Tuesday – Trump was noncommittal.

"We have not agreed to that," Trump had said at the Camp David meeting, reversing course. "We’re talking about it, but it’s a hard thing to give away that kind of technology."

Trump had said that an interceptor can go "8,600 miles an hour" - and that "Nobody else has that capacity" - strongly suggesting that he's averse to giving away such technology to a foreign ally.

Zelensky reveals the number of Patriot missiles fired during Iran War:

Just between us, PAC-3 missiles in the Middle East — the countries there have used about 800 or more missiles during these attacks.

Ukraine has never had that many missiles during all this time to repel… pic.twitter.com/WUz9E4hait

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 5, 2026

But now Zelensky is claiming that Trump has reversed once again on the issue. Again, there's nothing at all indicating that this is what has come from the White House, in any official capacity.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 12:25

Efforts To Curb Data Center Speculation Gain Ground Across The US

By Brian Martucci of UtilityDive,

“A fraction of proposed data centers will get built. Utilities are wising up.”

That was the headline on a May 2025 Utility Dive article that explored the conundrum speculative data center requests pose for U.S. electric utilities. More than a year later, it’s unclear how much has changed.

Sections of the Stargate Oracle AI data center undergo construction on Aug. 26, 2026, in Abilene, Texas. Community opposition has emerged as a major barrier to data center development as utilities and their regulators introduce new vetting requirements. Brandon Bell via Getty Images

Community opposition has emerged as a major barrier to data center development, with other challenges including construction labor shortages, long lead times for critical electrical equipment, limited power availability in key markets and uncertainty around consumer demand for artificial intelligence tools.

More than $170 billion in AI data center capacity has been “blocked, withdrawn, or stalled” by community opposition since January 2024, the energy advisory company Relae, formerly Carbon Direct, said in June.

 A person holds a sign at a city council town hall on data centers on Sept. 14, 2026, in Mason, Mich. Public backlash to data centers, based in part on their enermous energy demands, is driving states to pursue stricter development standards or even moratoriums on new facilities. Nic Antaya via Getty Images

That’s a sizable chunk of the roughly $581 billion Goldman Sachs expects the big tech companies known as hyperscalers to spend in the U.S. on AI infrastructure, including data center construction, this year.

Yet market analysts see no sign that the AI-driven construction boom will disappear anytime soon, despite challenges.

Goldman Sachs said in May it sees U.S. data center power demand more than doubling from its 2025 levels to reach 66 GW in 2027. Only about half of data center capacity scheduled for the next one to two years is expected to come online on time amid delays and cancellations, it said. 

The Electric Power Research Institute, a research nonprofit, said in February that data centers will represent 9% to 17% of U.S. electricity demand in 2030 and up to 20% by 2035.

Questions persist around the scale, timing and location of new data center load. If anything, the uncertainty is growing amid public backlash to data centers that is fueling state-led efforts to impose stricter rules on data center development, up to and including moratoriums on new facilities in some places.

Firmer answers would benefit not only the utility planners and regulators ensuring that the electric grid is neither over- nor under-built, but also the millions of other customers who could bear the consequences of a disorderly buildout, industry experts say.

Texas hits the brakes on large loads as states assert control

Many utilities and their regulators have turned to large-load tariffs to try and weed out speculative load by requiring minimum contract durations, minimum billing demand and collateral requirements, upfront payments for impact studies, exit fees and specific ramp schedules. Some states have also introduced incentives for developers that bring their own capacity, agree to be flexible in their energy use or commit to state clean energy or economic development goals.

The question of just how much data center capacity is going to come online, and when, is particularly urgent in Texas, which has paused new data center interconnections pending an audit of its 474-GW queue. That’s more than five times the Texas grid’s recent all-time peak demand record of a little over 90 GW set this summer. 

Few experts expect all that load to materialize. Pablo Vegas, president and CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, is among the skeptics. 

“We believe this forecast to be higher than expected future load growth,” Vegas said in an April statement, citing uncertainty around protocols for identifying, verifying and incorporating large load demand into long-range planning. Vegas said ERCOT would work with the Public Utilities Commission of Texas to adjust its forecasting methodology.

Thomas Gleeson, the PUCT’s chairman, was more blunt in an appearance on the Energy Capital podcast in June.

“The projections are extremely high, and what we know is that a lot of that load will not actually come here. A lot of it is speculative,” Gleeson said in comments made before the interconnection pause.

The sheer number of large-load interconnection requests compounds the state’s challenge. Texas’s load growth — not only from large computing and industrial loads, but also garden-variety residential and commercial demand — is leading to congestion in load pockets that previously had capacity to spare, Gleeson said.

That creates unwelcome uncertainty for large-load customers eager to put steel in the ground.

“That has been the problem we have been trying to solve for the past eight or so months — that when [a customer has] an interconnection agreement and they are ready to move forward, they know that the capacity will be there to serve them so they can make proper business decisions,” Gleeson said.

Texas has developed “gating” conditions to discourage speculative interconnection requests, balance load and capacity and “make sure that no one is harmed by these large loads,” Gleeson said. 

Last summer, Gov. Greg Abbott, R, signed Senate Bill 6, a sweeping measure requiring prospective large-load customers to demonstrate site control, substantially cover necessary grid upgrades, disclose duplicative interconnection requests elsewhere in Texas and accept curtailment during firm load shed events, among other provisions. 

On June 18, the PUCT adopted a cluster study framework for prospective loads larger than 75 MW that officials said would streamline a “lengthy and repetitive” sequential study process as ERCOT stakeholders work to develop a comprehensive transmission planning framework later this year. ERCOT said at the time that it expected to publish a final transmission plan for the first study cluster, known as “Batch Zero,” in late 2027.

The Stargate Oracle AI data center campus is seen on Aug. 26, 2026, in Abilene, Texas. The state has paused new large-load interconnections pending an audit of data centers in its 474-GW queue.
Brandon Bell via Getty Images

Gleeson said on the podcast that the cluster study and transmission planning frameworks will mitigate uncertainty for large loads, grid operators and generation owners across Texas. Together, they assure loads that “once they interconnect, they will get the electricity they need to fully energize,” and they assure other stakeholders that “all the loads coming here are real and will stay,” he said.

But before the state could announce the first study cluster, Abbott in August effectively directed the grid operator to freeze new interconnection approvals until it completes an audit of all data centers in the queue. ERCOT responded by delaying the Batch Zero process.

The grid operator has since said that it aims to complete the audit by December. In the meantime, Bloomberg NEF estimated that the interconnection “pause” could delay 20% of the total U.S. data center pipeline, and possibly more if it extends into next year.

Uncertainty in regulated markets, too

Large-load uncertainty is a headache in regulated utility markets, too. There, it’s up to vertically integrated utilities — with increasing scrutiny from state policymakers and regulators — to sort out speculative requests from those more likely to get built.

Brad Viator, president of Power for Tomorrow, a trade association for vertically integrated utilities, insists they are up to the challenge. 

In an email, Viator said many utilities are raising load interconnection study fees as request volume increases. They’re also structuring electric service agreements to prevent large loads from ramping power demand “in ways that would strand costs or compromise reliability for other customers,” such as by requiring customers to pay upfront for substation upgrades and other infrastructure. And they’re keeping generation that would be required to support a large new customer out of load forecasts until the contract is “actually executed or near execution,” he said.

“The structure is designed to ensure that by the time a customer reaches a contract — and certainly before any new generation is committed — the utility has high confidence they’re dealing with a real project, not a tire-kicker,” Viator said.

For legitimate large-load customers, vertically integrated utilities’ ownership of generation, transmission and distribution ensures adequate generation and grid capacity, maintaining reliability as they interconnect, Viator said. He said that’s one factor in regulated utilities’ comparatively short interconnection queues — one to five years compared with eight or more in deregulated portions of the PJM Interconnection, he said.

“In markets like PJM, where new generation simply isn’t getting built, you can’t move customers through the queue because there’s no new generation to serve them,” Viator said.

Some regulators and consumer advocates have raised concerns, however, that the return on equity in the vertically integrated model incentivizes spending on new infrastructure more than it does scrutiny of potential large loads.

Karl Rábago, principal at Rábago Energy and a former commissioner at the Texas Public Utility Commission, said because vertically integrated utilities own power plants, poles and wires across sometimes vast territories, they have more leverage over regulators, and the for-profit companies among them have strong financial incentives to build more.  

“I get no sense that utilities are excited about serving this load as much as they are excited about spending the capital necessary to serve the load,” Rábago said. “They are promising big [earnings per share] growth … to shareholders, and the transmission and generation [they build] to serve data centers is the only way to get that.” 

Their data center load growth projections — those shared publicly, at least — thus deserve some skepticism, he said.

“If they have good estimates of load growth — realistically discounting for the opposition that is gaining traction — it is not in their interest to share,” Rábago said.

Some independent grid modelers seem to agree. In November, Grid Strategies, a power sector consulting firm, said the aggregate data center load forecasts that utilities submitted to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission came in about 40% higher than credible industry projections for data center development through 2030.

Rábago said “cross-jurisdictional cooperation” could help state regulators develop more accurate data center load projections, but he’s not aware of any such efforts. Right now, “utilities are playing the tune that makes regulators dance — if you don’t let us do this, the grid could collapse under all that load,” he said.

Utilities look to smaller data centers as scrutiny of large loads intensifies

Some investor-owned utilities appear to be angling for smaller data centers that can interconnect to the grid more easily, arouse less community opposition and appear likely to become more common as AI use increases. 

In late March, for example, NorthWestern Energy filed a large-load tariff proposal with the Montana Public Service Commission that would exempt loads under 50 MW from direct regulatory oversight. And in May, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, R, signed a law requiring data centers over 50 MW to cover the full cost of connecting to the grid, aligning with large-load tariffs state regulators approved for Florida Power & Light, a vertically integrated NextEra subsidiary.

NorthWestern Energy CEO Brian Bird said in a statement that his company’s proposal would “[position] our state to compete for high-quality economic development.”

But Anne Hedges, executive director for the Montana Environmental Information Center, told the Daily Montanan in April that the proposal created a loophole that would — in theory — allow NorthWestern to connect multiple 49-MW data centers without adequate ratepayer protections.

Such “vague” large-load tariffs maintain utilities’ leverage without shedding much light on future power demand from computing facilities, Rábago said.

“We really have no visibility on the shape of the whole market — what is the mean or mode of size distribution for data centers and where is it heading?” he said. “I feel like it is generally smaller than the large load size thresholds utilities are getting in large load tariffs.”

Data center load growth projections also depend on factors outside utilities’ control. One big wild card is customer demand for AI, cloud services and other products of data centers’ computing capacity. 

In May, xAI said it would lease already-operating servers at its Memphis data center to Anthropic, the fast-growing company behind the Claude large-language models. Bloomberg reported on July 1 that Meta would launch a cloud computing business — similar to Microsoft’s Azure and Amazon’s AWS — that could help it recoup the many billions of dollars it has spent on computing equipment over the past several years.

The developments suggest xAI and Meta have more computing capacity than they need for themselves in the near term, though not necessarily that no one else has use for it. As Bain & Co. put it in October, hyperscalers are moving from an initial “scramble” for AI computing capacity into a more “disciplined, selective and execution-focused phase of growth.”

The upshot of this transition from hype to execution is that “the ‘wildcat’ predictions for data centers are dead in the water,” said Advait Arun, senior associate for capital markets at the Center for Public Enterprise.

“The only ones that are getting built are ones that are, upfront, supported by hyperscaler cash,” which is “barrelling through a lot of problems” facing the industry, Arun said. 

That’s bad news for the speculative neocloud data center operators that lease computing capacity to hyperscalers, Arun said, but it’s not necessarily an indication that evidence-based data center load forecasts are overshooting the mark.

The transmission fault that caused 1.5 GW of data center load to trip offline in Virginia in 2024, and the North American Electric Reliability Corp.’s more recent warning that large computing facilities may pose systemic reliability risks, are evidence that the grid needs to expand to accommodate even modest data center growth, he said.

“I think utilities shouldn’t be concerned with overbuilding. There’s a baseline level of new investment into interregional transmission and large-scale capacity that’s necessary for resilience,” Arun said.

“Now, that’s not to say ratepayers won’t feel the bite,” he added. “And that’s a big problem with the way the system works.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 12:05

Appeals Court Backs Department Of War's Anthropic Blacklisting In Blow To Dario

The Trump administration scored a legal victory Friday morning after a federal appeals court rejected Anthropic's challenge to its designation as a national-security supply-chain risk. This means the Department of War can blacklist the AI frontier firm from all contracts.

In a 2-1 decision today, the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit found sufficient grounds for the DoW to designate Anthropic's products a supply-chain risk. The court pointed to restrictions embedded in Claude that prevent it from performing certain critical tasks.

"The Department had ample support for its conclusion that the continued integration of Claude into the Department's information systems, by the Department or its contractors, presented a statutorily covered national-security risk," the court wrote.

It continued, "As Anthropic admits, the company encodes restrictions into Claude that prevent the model from performing tasks that Anthropic wishes to prevent."

Anthropic has opposed allowing its AI to be used for autonomous weapons or mass domestic surveillance.

Dario Amodei's Anthropic has warned that such a designation could cause significant "reputational stigma" and cost it hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.

Or perhaps it could complicate things as the company pushes for an IPO debut after the US midterm elections in November.

Last night at the White House, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, Sam Altman, and Tim Cook were among those invited to the state dinner with President Trump and Melania Trump, as well as Trump's Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, and his wife.

Dario was not invited.

If Anthropic were smart they would terminate Dario tomorrow https://t.co/Dxtv011mzk

— Will Chamberlain (@willchamberlain) September 25, 2026

Will Chamberlain noted on X, "If Anthropic were smart they would terminate Dario tomorrow." 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 11:50

Senate Narrowly Defeats Iran War Powers Resolution

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com

The Senate narrowly defeated a War Powers Resolution on Thursday that would have directed President Trump to end the war with Iran, though the vote doesn’t negate the Iran War Powers Resolution that was passed by both the Senate and the House several months ago.

The resolution failed Thursday in a 49-50 vote, with four Republicans — Senators Rand Paul (R-KY), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Thom Tillis (R-NC) — supporting the measure. It marked the first time Tillis, who is not running for re-election, voted to end the war.

C-Span screengrab

Just one Democrat, Senator Jon Fetterman (D-PA), voted against the bill, something he’s consistently done, and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) wasn’t present for the vote.

If Alsobrooks did vote in favor of the resolution, Vice President JD Vance could have cast a tie-breaking vote to kill the bill, as he did with a Venezuela War Powers Resolution earlier this year.

The resolution previously passed through the House, where seven Republicans voted in favor, the most support from the GOP that a bill to end the Iran war has received.

Back in June, both the House and the Senate passed a concurrent War Powers Resolution directing President Trump to end hostilities against Iran, marking the first time Congress has approved a concurrent resolution under the 1973 War Powers Act directing the termination of an unauthorized war.

Section 5(c) of the 1973 War Powers Act states that "at any time that United States Armed Forces are engaged in hostilities outside the territory of the United States, its possessions and territories without a declaration of war or specific statutory authorization, such forces shall be removed by the President if the Congress so directs by concurrent resolution."

Thursday’s vote, or any of the other recent War Powers bills that have been defeated, does not repeal H. Con. Res. 86, the resolution that was passed in June. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has said in his articles of impeachment that he introduced for Pete Hegseth that the Pentagon chief is in violation of the 1973 War Powers Act by continuing the war with Iran without congressional authorization.

Massie also argues that the war was unlawful from the outset because Congress never declared war on Iran or provided authorization for the hostilities.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 11:25

Jefferies, Goldman, Now Stifel: Wall Street Races To Cover Almonty As "Owning The Bottlenecks" Theme Gains Momentum

A sense of urgency is building across Wall Street as notable desks push clients toward the critical materials theme we already laid out for readers, as the Trump administration accelerates efforts to rebuild conflict-free supply chains and reduce dependence on China. Resource nationalism and the looming rearmament supercycle are turning secure access to critical materials into both a national security priority and a multiyear investment theme.

For miners already producing conflict-free critical materials outside China, the opportunity lies in supplying Western buyers seeking alternatives to Beijing's quasi-monopoly, which is expected to persist through 2030. The US government's deals with junior miners have generated news headlines, but new projects can take years to reach commercial production. As Western supplies tighten, the immediate market advantage belongs to producers capable of delivering material today. Government funding can accelerate development, but it cannot eliminate the time required to permit, build and commission a mine.

Wall Street Piles Into Almonty Coverage As Tungsten Producing Miner Ramps Up To Challenge China's Stranglehold

At the start of the month, Jefferies initiated coverage on Almonty Industries and assigned a "Buy" rating, highlighting the miner's direct public-market exposure to Western tungsten supply, with a 12-month price target of $26.25.

Jefferies initiates critical mineral companies Almonty, Materion, USA Rare Earth and Neo Performance with Buy; the firms are expected to benefit from increased demand for supply outside of China.

Almonty (buy, PT $26.25)

Sees Almonty offering public exposure to Western tungsten…

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 2, 2026

By Thursday, Goldman Sachs launched coverage on Almonty, describing the miner as "at the center of the Western tungsten investment narrative."

Now it's Friday, and Stifel critical materials analyst Brock Cannon has initiated coverage of Almonty with a $25 price target, telling clients that the Nasdaq-listed miner is set to be a major beneficiary of Western efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese tungsten, which is critical to defense and advanced manufacturing.

Almonty rated new Buy ($25 PT) at Stifel as it sees the miner benefiting from increased production and higher tungsten prices. “Tungsten prices are up ~775% since the start of 2025 as China’s export controls have structurally changed the market”

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 25, 2026

China accounted for roughly 80% of global tungsten mine production in 2025 and about 85% of downstream ammonium paratungstate refining capacity, according to Cannon.

Almonty's production ramp is timed just perfectly to help Western buyers break China's stranglehold on tungsten supply: its Sangdong mine in South Korea is ramping up Phase I, while Phase II is expected to nearly double annual ore throughput to 1.2 million tonnes in 2027.

"Almonty is a global tungsten mine operator with assets across Western countries and the US. The company has recently started Phase I commercial production at its Sangdong, South Korea mine with plans to execute Phase II (~2x production) in 2027," Cannon wrote in the note.

Alongside an expansion at its Panasqueira mine in Portugal, that should substantially increase output over the next two years. Cannon estimates Sangdong alone could account for roughly 40% of Western and allied tungsten supply once both phases are fully operational.

Cannon noted, "The company is also expanding production at its Panasqueira mine which (along with Sangdong) would result in the company leading Western Tungsten production by the end of 2028."

Cannon added more color: 

Financial Snapshot

Investment Thesis

Key Investor Debates

Global Supply

Tungsten Demand Market Segments

Tungsten in Defense

The Korean Trinity: Almonty's Long-Term Buildout at Sangdong

Tungsten Pricing: China Exit Creating New Market Dynamic

Almonty Tungsten Production Ramp: Ahead of the Game

Almonty Leads Western Tungsten Project Pipeline

US Tungsten: No Operating Mine, Five Domestic Projects

Long-Term Catalysts: Upside From Further Expansion Projects

Cannon named Almonty the "first name in our new Critical Materials coverage," which is outlined in a theme called "Owning the Bottlenecks." 

Why this theme should work: 

The race for conflict-free tungsten and other critical materials is a theme that Jefferies, Goldman, and now Stifel are backing, as Washington's multiyear effort to rebuild critical supply chains will reward early movers, including producers like Almonty.

Professional subscribers can read the full ALM note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 11:10

Netanyahu Brings Ominous Prop To UN Speech, Blasts 'Moral Cowards'

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday issued a fiery address to the UN General Assembly in New York, raging against his international critics and batting down genocide allegations.

He slammed widespread accusations that the Israeli army conducted a campaign of ethnic cleansing in Gaza as "the biggest lie of the century" while calling his decision to obliterate Hamas and wage war in the strip "one of the easiest decisions I've ever had to make." He added: "if we hadn't done it, we'd all be dead."

via Reuters

Dozens of UN delegates walked out during the speech, and at times jeers and boos were heard, after which Netanyahu berated them from the podium as "moral cowards".

At one point he said that "in the last three years," Israeli soldiers have "fought a war on seven fronts."

"Do you know of any other country the size of New Jersey that can fight for three years on seven fronts?" he posed. 

The big walkout...

Netanyahu with a slight grin: "If there are any other moral cowards who haven’t yet left this hall, please do so now, thank you very much."

🇮🇱 Mark Rutte was apparently surprised delegations would walk out during Netanyahu’s UN speech...

That’s like being surprised someone brought cocaine to Miami in the ’80s.

Writer: Oliverpic.twitter.com/EQ0AvaVtnY

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 24, 2026

"They organized to erase us from the face of the Earth. Instead of collapsing, we delivered devastating blows to all of them with our great American friends and crushed the Iranian army and its nuclear facilities," Netanyahu also said.

Given he was standing at the UN building in New York City, Netanyahu called out Mayor Zohran Mamdani. He chastised him as the "antisemitic mayor" - and added:

"Shame on you. Shame on you for distorting the facts. Shame on you for inverting the victim and aggressor. Shame on you for spitting in the face of truth."

Netanyahu further asserted that "many Jews no longer feel safe in New York" since Mamdani got elected. The longtime member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and former NY state assembly member had previously called for Bibi's arrest as a war criminal should he step foot on American soil.

Israel is publishing the coordinates, dates and exact local times of public protests in other countries.

The J-SOC reports appear on the Ministry for Diaspora Affairs website as part of a wider effort to protect Israel’s international image.
Here are 2,000 forecast entries. pic.twitter.com/pcfb38ftdR

— S.B.S (@Wallface) September 25, 2026

"Mr. Mamdani, you tried to stop me from coming here. You tried to silence me. Well, you can't silence me, and you can't silence the truth," Netanyahu said in his speech.

He also quite provocatively brandished a pager while reminding the UN audience Israel's devastating September 2024 operation against Hezbollah leaders (and in some instances their families). He's been on many occasions touting Israeli intelligence's pager bombs - though this will likely been seen by many on the UNGA floor as a veiled threat to not oppose Israel.

Speaking of veiled threats...

🚨🇮🇱 WATCH: A member of the Israeli delegation walking around the UN hall to check which countries had left during Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech pic.twitter.com/MeYXEe6TLc

— Politics Global (@PolitlcsGlobal) September 25, 2026

Netanyahu has long been known for somewhat theatrical speeches on the UN floor, and almost every time be brings some kind of prop or visual. Iranian President Pesheshkian also brought some visuals to present before the delegates.

Clash of visuals: Iran President vs. PM Netanyahu

Starlink snub: Iran and Israel take UNGA clash beyond words pic.twitter.com/l6oOiKvLtg

— Viory Video (@vioryvideo) September 25, 2026

In this latest Thursday address, some critics have noted that the overall threatening tone of the speech (with us or against us type rhetoric) reveals some level of desperation on the part of the Israeli government as it finds itself more and more isolated on a global stage. Even the UK has of late announced sanctions on Jewish settler groups in the West Bank, which has been met with anger in Tel Aviv.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 11:00

"More Signaling, Less Substance": Barclays Pours Cold Water On Trump-Xi Summit

President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping for a White House state dinner late Thursday, calling for closer ties while offering limited details on progress in addressing trade and geopolitical disputes. This was Xi's first White House visit in over a decade.

On Friday morning, Trump issued a fresh Truth Social post related to the evening with Xi, but fixated on his term "Super Intelligence". Apparently Trump wants this to be his legacy in connection with the early history of AI...

Trump last night praised Xi and his wife as "truly outstanding, amazing people" and said the two superpowers should "continue to build a relationship that promotes prosperity and security."

Xi called for a relationship defined by "strategic stability" and urged both sides to "act as responsible major countries."

Behind the scenes:

Behind the scenes at the @WhiteHouse #StateDinner with President @realDonaldTrump, First Lady @MelaniaTrump, President Xi, and Madame Peng—With guests in the beautiful East Room… pic.twitter.com/kDhBrIWajI

— Dan Scavino Jr.🇺🇸🦅 (@DanScavino) September 25, 2026

Earlier on Thursday, the two leaders held bilateral talks in the Oval Office. Trump described the discussions as a "great meeting" but did not elaborate on what was said. Xi told dinner guests that the two leaders had "reached common understanding on many issues," without providing further details.

Barclays senior China economist Yingke Zhou provided clients with his first take on the Trump-Xi state visit and said it was "more signaling, less substance."

"The Trump-Xi summit was primarily about stabilizing relations rather than resolving disputes. Beyond a short trade-truce extension, progress was limited. The absence of Chinese CEOs suggests China viewed the summit as a strategic dialogue, not a deal-making exercise," Zhou said.

Zhou added more color:

What was the key message?

The Trump-Xi summit's main achievement was symbolic rather than substantive. The two sides projected a constructive tone and a willingness to keep talking, but delivered little concrete progress on the core issues, including trade, AI and geopolitics. We think the summit was primarily about stabilizing the relationship, rather than resolving core disputes.

Speaking at the arrival ceremony at the White House, President Xi repeatedly emphasized building a "constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability." Overall, we think President Xi's speech was less about concessions and more about signaling predictability, stability, and openness to continued economic engagement, despite the competition in technology, trade, and geopolitics.

For comparison, President Trump repeatedly emphasized his personal relationship with Xi and the value of engagement. The summit's key message, we think, is that both sides want to lower escalation risks and maintain dialogue, even as strategic competition remains firmly intact.

What was the most concrete deliverable?

The main deliverable was a two-month extension of the existing trade truce to 10 January 2027, removing an immediate source of policy uncertainty. However, the extension was shorter than the 3-6 month rollover many market participants had expected, and shorter than indications from Jamieson Greer ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.

For context, China continues to face the highest effective US tariff rates among major trading partners, with an effective tariff rate of roughly 23%, compared with an average US effective tariff rate of around 7% for the rest of the world. The lack of progress on tariff reductions suggests that both sides are prioritizing stability and continued dialogue rather than pursuing a meaningful trade reset.

Board of Trade: Ahead of the summit, reports¹ suggested the US and China were considering reciprocal tariff cuts on around USD30bn of goods under the proposed Board of Trade framework. USTR said on 21 September that establishing a stable 'Board of Trade' is a key goal for the summit, with aims to secure a stable subset of goods, including agricultural and medical products, away from active trade disputes. So far, few concrete announcements have emerged. We await the details post the summit.

What the delegations tell us?

The summit delivered few concrete policy outcomes, but the composition of the delegations sent an important signal. The US side prominently featured leaders from AI and semiconductors (e.g. Nvidia, AMD, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta), other technology (Apple, Tesla, and Dell), and finance (Citi, JPM, Blackstone, GS, and Mastercard), underscoring that technology, capital, and investment ties remain at the center of the US-China relationship.

In contrast, President Xi's delegation consisted almost entirely of senior government officials and policymakers, including economic, trade, and foreign-affairs officials. No major Chinese entrepreneurs, technology leaders, or corporate executives were part of the official delegation. In our view, the absence of Chinese CEOs suggests China wanted to frame the summit primarily as a state-to-state diplomatic engagement, rather than a platform for commercial deal-making.

What are the key takeaways on geopolitics?

The summit built guardrails, not solutions. On geopolitics, the focus was on managing risks rather than resolving disputes.

On Taiwan, Chinese state media reported² that President Xi urged the US to "adhere to the correct position of opposing Taiwan independence," underscoring that Taiwan remains Beijing's foremost geopolitical red line and the most sensitive issue in US-China relations.

On Iran, President Xi expressed support for the US and Iran returning to the June memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz³. More broadly, China appears relatively insulated from the energy shock. Kepler data suggest that China's crude oil inventories have declined by less than 5% since the Middle East conflict began. At the current pace of drawdown, China has ample energy buffers and could sustain supply disruptions for at least 10 years.

The Trump-Xi meeting comes amid uncertainty over two conflicts raging across Eurasia, from Russia-Ukraine to the Gulf conflict, alongside intensifying resource nationalism and competition for technological leadership. The world is on an uncertain glide path into 2027 amid a global refining crisis.

* * *

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/25/2026 - 10:55