Zero Rss

Don't Trust The Midterm Polls

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via The Epoch Times,

This is a lightly edited transcript of an Aug. 24 segment of the "Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words" podcast.

Let's have a periodic check on the status of the midterms that we're now less than 80 days away from. The Democrats are riding high. They feel that historical trends, i.e., 39 out of the last 41 midterms, the party in the White House loses seats, and there's not very many seats Republicans can afford to lose, and they may lose the House and Senate.

They're already, I guess you'd call it, measuring their drapes, but in the sense that they're already explaining how they're going to go after the Trump family, the Trump family associates, cryptocurrency concerns, any hangers-on, people going to the Middle East and investing. They're gonna open it wide open.

These are the people, of course, who never investigated the Biden family or Hunter Biden. That's no excuse if there's culpability, but nonetheless, you can count on a two-year investigation of Donald Trump and a never-ending impeachment inquiry, and the end of the MAGA agenda should he lose the House and the Senate.

Donald Trump is strangely confident. He now has finally hit on a strategy that he feels will work. Earlier, I called it the "Anaconda Strategy," the idea that he is squeezing a debilitated Iran. In other words, the kinetic 40 days of bombing have left the nuclear military-industrial complex in shambles.

And this time, he's not just blockading, he's not just having an embargo on goods. He is not just freezing the bank accounts of Iranian grandees. He's not just debanking the entire country. He's going to third parties and saying, "You and China and Russia and Europe have been trading with this country even while we were bearing the burden of defanging a potential nuclear renegade nation, and we're going to isolate you. We're not gonna do business with you if you do business with Iran."

And the Iranians now are crying foul. They're saying we're colonialists. But what I'm getting at, after all that military damage from Feb. 28 for the next 40 days, and after all the blockades, they're not able to withstand a renewed squeezing.

And so, time is actually on our side.

The second part of this strategy is Donald Trump has now put the war on the back burner. He is saying that we don't need to have ground troops. We might not even go in and bomb them again unless they egregiously attack an ally of ours or one of our carriers or ships.

We have managed it now. The strait is mostly open, and whatever the status of the nuclear stockpile or enriched uranium of the theocracy, it's pretty clear they can't get at it.

Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah don't seem to be getting money. They don't seem to have enough rockets to threaten the Gulf States or Israel, at least to get through their missile defenses.

And so, we're just going to concentrate, Trump thinks, on the economy.

So, what he is doing now is he and JD Vance are barnstorming the country, and they're starting to make headway. They're not worried about the polls that show a generic 7 percent Democratic advantage and betting odds and polls that say they're gonna lose the House because they looked at the recent primaries.

Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for the Democratic senatorial seat in Michigan, was polling ahead 10 points, and he scarcely won by a point and a half.

Francesca Hong, the Wisconsin Democratic candidate for governor, was polling ahead 10 or 15 or 20 points. She lost and lost handily.

Mr. [Alexander] Vindman, who was running for Senate in Florida, was polling ahead. He lost to Ms. [Angie] Nixon, a democratic socialist.

So, what I'm getting at is the polls are worthless. And what we need to look at is what the status is right now.

The war is starting to wane. If it should end or if the Iranians crack in the next 60 to 70 days, that would be a spectacular achievement that Donald Trump - you know, we've tragically lost 17 Americans - but at a tolerable cost in blood and treasure, he ended a 50-year problem that seven presidents said was existential.

You could not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon, and the pressure that he's put on them and the damage he's inflicted would probably, in the next year or two, prompt a renewal of internal opposition against a theocracy that is bleeding.

The second thing to remember very carefully is, as I said earlier, the redistricting, the red state redistricting and the Supreme Court prohibition on racial gerrymandering might give him an additional four or five seats.

But the most important developments are money and the agenda of the new Democratic Party.

Very quickly, Donald Trump has got a war chest of about $400 million, and he's now going to use it.

He says he's going to use it all in his political action committees to help save the Republicans in the midterms.

Elon Musk said that he is going to match dollar for dollar the Democratic oligarchic class that if they start to donate in great amounts to Democratic candidates.

So, the money issue probably favors also, like, the redistricting and maybe the course of the Iran war that could wane and be not an issue.

But the most important thing to conclude is the Democratic Party. No one thought that the Democratic socialists would ever try to absorb and even seem to succeed in absorbing the Democratic Party. I mean, Nancy Pelosi, Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer, they've all said they have no problem with the Democratic socialists.

It's a big tent party, and they're going to help them win their seats.

But the problem is, once you have the money and the effort and the attention, and you show what the democratic socialists are, like, defunding the Pentagon, defunding the police, opening the border, mass amnesties, warring on fossil fuels, isolationist foreign policy, the transgender issue reopened with biological men now by statute free to compete in women's sports. I could go on and on.

They even want to destroy the Senate and the Electoral College, not to mention packing the Supreme Court, ending the filibuster, and bringing in new seats in the Senate by admitting new blue states such as Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico.

And so, what I'm getting at is, the more we learn about the democratic socialists, and the more that the Democratic Party feels they've already taken over the apparatus of the party and they're going to join them, or at least they're not going to oppose them, they're gonna be culpable or responsible for what these people say.

And they're saying all sorts of stuff, not just anti-Semitic venom, not just anti-Israel venom, but questioning the very legitimacy of the United States government, the way that our Founders created a legislative, judicial, and executive branch, the Declaration of Independence. Our entire traditions, they're saying, are flawed at their origins.

They got worse during our maturity, and now they're god-awful right now. That's not a winning message.

So, the midterms are very much up in the air.

Contrary to historical precedent, there's still a chance that the Republicans can save both the Senate and the House.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 16:20

US Universities Had Extensive Ties With Chinese Defense Research Labs, Air Force Study Finds

Authored by Arthur Zhang via The Epoch Times,

Thirty U.S. academic institutions have until Aug. 31 to examine specified foreign research ties or risk losing eligibility for future federal research funding.

A model of a Chinese-made J-35A stealth fighter is displayed at an AVIC (China Aviation Industry Corporation) stand during the 15th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai, in southern China's Guangdong province on Nov. 14, 2024. Hector Retamal / AFP via Getty Images

Seven days after the Pentagon ordered the reviews, an Air Force-affiliated institute published a study cataloging 204 interactions involving U.S. institutions and laboratories at the center of China's defense research system.

The Aug. 24 study by the China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) found more U.S. institution-level interactions with China's Defense Science and Technology Key Laboratories than those involving institutions from any other country.

CASI describes the Defense Science and Technology Key Laboratories as China's highest level national laboratory network for military research. The contacts it identified ranged from academic visits and conferences to coauthored technical research and formal joint laboratories in fields including aero-engines, underwater sensing, hyperspectral target detection, advanced communications, and aerospace materials.

CASI described interactions between Western researchers and Chinese military laboratories as "at the very least problematic," saying even seemingly benign exchanges could give Chinese defense researchers access to knowledge and technology useful to the People's Liberation Army.

CASI Director Brendan Mulvaney told The Epoch Times that institutional collaborations-including joint laboratories, long-term partnerships, and mutual study or training agreements-were the most concerning because they represented sustained cooperation rather than one-off encounters.

The Pentagon's Aug. 17 order directs 30 U.S. institutions to review academic, financial, and research relationships with foreign entities of concern and report what action they have taken by Aug. 31.

The Pentagon did not publicly identify the schools. According to a list DefenseScoop obtained from a U.S. official, Harvard University, MIT, the University of California-Berkeley, Duke University, Penn State, the University of Texas at Austin, New York University, and the University of Southern California are among institutions on that list that also appear in CASI's records.

The Pentagon has not said that the relationships identified by CASI prompted the Aug. 17 notices.

Purdue and Beihang Built Joint Research Labs

In 2011, Purdue and Beihang formally established the BUAA-Purdue Joint Laboratory on Energy Systems and the BUAA-Purdue Joint Laboratory on Low Emissions Combustion.

Then-Purdue President France Córdova and Beihang President Huai Jinpeng signed the agreements.

The energy laboratory paired Purdue's computational modeling with Beihang's experimental capabilities. The combustion laboratory focused on low emission gas turbine combustors used in aircraft and power generation.

Beihang records also describe the two laboratories as formal joint research arrangements and say the universities discussed broader scientific research, teaching, and faculty and student exchanges.

Beihang later described the combustion laboratory within a research program that also undertook Chinese National Defense 973 projects, a state-backed basic research program supporting its defense science and technology.

CASI identified Beihang's thermal engineering department-which oversees a Defense Science and Technology Key Laboratory for aero-engine aerodynamics and thermodynamics-as having established a joint combustion research team with Purdue.

Beihang is now on the Pentagon's Section 1286 list of foreign institutions subject to tighter research security restrictions.

Harvard Listed by Chinese Defense University as Collaborator

The Harbin Institute of Technology (HIT), one of China's leading defense linked universities, currently lists Harvard among the international collaborators of its Center for Composite Materials and Structure.

The center works on aerospace structures, smart and composite materials, sensors, structural health monitoring, multifunctional nanocomposites, and related technologies, according to its research description.

CASI also cites an earlier HIT description saying its composite materials research institute had established an overseas joint laboratory with Harvard and maintained long-term exchanges and cooperation with other foreign universities.

HIT has been on the Pentagon's Section 1286 research security list since at least fiscal 2022 and was added to the Commerce Department's Entity List in June 2020 over its alleged efforts to use U.S. technology for Chinese missile programs.

Research Reached Underwater and Missile Fields

The links also extended into published technical research.

In 2017, researchers affiliated with the University of Houston and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University joined researchers from Harbin Engineering University on a study of underwater wireless sensor networks.

The paper, published in Sensors, developed a method for accessing data through an underwater sensor network.

The authors included Houbing Song, then affiliated with Embry-Riddle; Albert M. K. Cheng of the University of Houston; and Xuefei Ma, who was affiliated with both Harbin Engineering University's College of Underwater Acoustic Engineering and its National Key Laboratory of Underwater Acoustic Science and Technology.

The author-contribution statement credits the U.S.-based researchers with experimental, analytical, and research work. Funding listed in the paper came from Chinese sources, including the National Natural Science Foundation of China, basic-research projects, and the China Scholarship Council.

CASI classified the work as research collaboration involving a Chinese defense laboratory in underwater acoustics.

Another collaboration reached into hyperspectral target detection.

A 2021 study coauthored by Ying Qu, listed with the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, developed a neural-network method for identifying anomalous targets in hyperspectral images.

One of Qu's coauthors was Xuemei Liu of Beijing's Space Vehicle Survival Technology and Effectiveness Evaluation Laboratory.

Researchers from that laboratory have separately published work on missile trajectory tracking, missile attack-and-defense simulations, and radar-seeker countermeasures.

CASI said the Beijing laboratory appears closely affiliated with a Chinese defense laboratory involved in ballistic-missile penetration technology.

Harbin Engineering University, like Beihang and HIT, is on the Pentagon's Section 1286 list.

Advanced Communications Contacts Continued Into 2025

Mulvaney said conference participation could also be consequential because of how common it is and how little scrutiny it has received compared with formal research collaboration.

Some contacts cataloged by CASI are more recent.

University of Houston professor Zhu Han delivered keynote speeches at the International Conference on Communication Software and Networks in China in both 2024 and 2025.

His 2024 keynote focused on federated learning and multi-access edge computing, technologies used to distribute artificial intelligence processing across communications networks and connected devices.

The conference listed China's National Key Laboratory of Electromagnetic Space Security among its technical sponsors.

Han returned as a keynote speaker at the 2025 conference, which again listed the laboratory among its sponsors.

CASI traces the laboratory to a predecessor known as the Defense Science and Technology Key Laboratory of Communications Countermeasures Technology.

The 2025 keynote roster also included Nian Fushun, identified by organizers as a chief scientist of test instruments at China Electronics Technology Group Corp. and its 41st Research Institute.

China Electronics Technology Group is a state-owned defense electronics conglomerate involved in radar, communications, electronic warfare, and other military technologies.

Han's University of Houston profile lists wireless networking, security, and data analysis among his research interests.

Pentagon Restrictions Take Effect

Beginning in fiscal 2026, Pentagon funds cannot be used for fundamental research involving collaboration with institutions on the department's Section 1286 list.

The restriction applies to grants, contracts, and other assistance to higher education institutions and bars Pentagon funded fundamental research from collaborating with, or using equipment from, listed entities. It also extends to employees of those institutions.

Beihang University, Harbin Engineering University, and Harbin Institute of Technology-the Chinese universities involved in several of the relationships identified by CASI-are on the list.

The 30 U.S. institutions notified this month must report their findings and any mitigation measures to the Pentagon by Aug. 31.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 15:45

Secret Service Aware Of Iranian Video Threat Against Barron Trump

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Secret Service confirmed on Aug. 25 it is aware of a video aired by Iranian state-run media that appears to threaten President Donald Trump's youngest son, Barron, and places a $10 million bounty on him.

"The U.S. Secret Service is aware of the video and investigates anything that can be perceived as a threat toward our protectees," spokesman Nate Herring told The Epoch Times in an email. "Out of concern for operational security, we do not discuss matters of protective intelligence."

The three-minute video that first aired Aug. 24 alleges Trump's 20-year-old son is being monitored.

The video, titled "Where and how should we kill Barron Trump?" was produced by media entities affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and broadcast on Channel 3 of Iranian state television.

The clip shows the location of the university he attends, along with maps of the school. It also depicts security vehicles that drive him around. The clips also allege Barron Trump's movements have been monitored.

The Epoch Times reached out to the university about the video and didn't immediately receive a response about whether any additional security measures have been taken.

The video also claims Barron Trump communicates through voice-to-text on a gaming platform and mentions Trump Tower, where he is known to stay.

The broadcast also claims Barron Trump's gaming accounts have been located and allegedly names a couple of his friends.

Statements in the video appeared to taunt and intentionally terrorize Barron Trump and the president's family. The Epoch Times has not been able to verify whether claims made in it are legitimate.

This is the second broadcast by the Iranian regime to threaten Barron Trump.

An IRGC-affiliated news agency also broadcast a similar video in July threatening First Lady Melania Trump. It claimed to have information on her security detail, her movements and alleged security vulnerabilities.

President Donald Trump, First Lady Melania Trump, and son Barron Trump make their way to board Marine One from the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, on Jan. 17, 2020, to travel to Palm Beach, Fla. MANDEL NGAN/Getty Images

At the end of the July video, the narrator says: "This is just the beginning. Barron Trump, wait for us."

The video that was broadcast this week ends with the same statement.

Since the start of the war against Iran, and the assassination of Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranian media have issued several articles and statements threatening the lives of President Trump and his family members.

The White House referred questions about the threats against the Trump family to the Secret Service.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 15:25

Coinbase CEO Considers Joining California Exodus Over "Deeply Un-American" Wealth Tax Proposal

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong could be the next Silicon Valley billionaire to flee California over a union-backed, draconian wealth tax scheme that critics slam as a radical wealth grab.

“I think it’s deeply un-American to seize people’s assets. It might be unconstitutional,” Armstrong, who has an estimated net worth of $8.8 billion, said of the proposal during an interview on the “The Katie Miller Podcast.”

“It’s against my values, I would say. I think it’s bad for the state and for America. So we’re considering any and all options basically at this point to be, in terms of relocation,” the crypto executive added.

This week on the Katie Miller Podcast, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong breaks down crypto, meme coins, and the explosive future of AI in digital assets.

You will see a side of the CEO you have never seen before: his passion for longevity plus the incredible story of how he met his… pic.twitter.com/JxdDittltm

— The Katie Miller Podcast (@katiemillerpod) August 25, 2026

While Coinbase has maintained that it is a remote-first operation, it signed a lease for 150,000 square feet of San Francisco office space in May. That came just four years after it paid $25 million to break its previous office lease in the same city, the New York Post reports. 

If the wealth tax is approved by voters, the levy would hit anyone who lived in California as of Jan. 1 this year and holds a net worth of $1 billion or more by year’s end, excluding certain assets like directly owned real estate. 

The tax has split Democrat ranks wide open, with Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democrat gubernatorial hopeful Xavier Becerra both publicly opposing it. The measure originated with a major healthcare union, the Service Employees International Union United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW), which claims it would raise $100 billion to offset what it calls deep healthcare funding cuts under the Trump administration. Unsurprisingly, far-left lawmakers, including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna, have cheered it on.

The proposal has already reverberated through Silicon Valley, where several high-profile figures have established residency elsewhere. Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have moved to Florida, while Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently purchased a $150 million mansion in Miami. Even Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn co-founder, prominent Democrat donor, and longtime buddy of deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, has publicly criticized the proposal, describing California’s wealth tax as a “horrendous idea” that would hasten the departure of tech founders and executives from the state.

In May, one of the co-authors of California’s controversial tax appeared to suggest that the levy could extend beyond a single imposition. Marxist economics professor Emmanuel Saez, who hails from France, made the comment during a heated debate against economist Arthur Laffer at the University of California, Berkeley.

“I don’t think it’s going to be a one-time tax. Because you can’t surprise billionaires more than once,” Saez said. "Even then, maybe some of them were expecting something like this. So, it’s going to be a debate about this time, you know, a permanent wealth tax at a low rate that’s going to last for a number of years.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 15:05

The Reason For The Tech Backlash

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The backlash against data centers has shocked political and financial elites. It's because it seems to stretch across the left-right divide. Indeed, it seems like the one thing most Americans can agree on: these centers need to be curbed and controlled. Part of this backlash is also targeting the Flock cameras taking over urban areas with new forms of police surveillance.

Looking at this without much on-the-ground knowledge, one might be quick to judge these movements as a revival of Luddism that came with industrialization two centuries ago. Is it always the case that people resist the new thing because they don't understand it and don't like the inevitable creative destruction always and everywhere wrought by free-market forces?

I don't believe this story. There is no reason why any real innovation adopted voluntarily on the market should engender a mass movement of revanchists who want to go back to the old ways. The key word in that sentence is voluntary.

When we look back at history, we can see that there are large dollops of public forces that have come with many industrial transformations, including data centers now.

Too often, large technological shocks have been inorganic. They have been imposed by aspirational cartels in league with state power who are looking for unfair advantage and power and portfolio aggrandizement.

Let's travel back in time 500 years to the Enclosure Acts of Britain that are often said (rightly or wrongly) to have kicked off the Industrial Revolution. Before widespread enclosure, much of rural England operated under the common-law, open-field system. Villages had large open fields divided into scattered strips cultivated by individual households, plus common pastures, meadows, and wasteland where villagers could graze animals, gather fuel, or forage under customary rights (such as pasture, pannage for pigs, or estovers for wood). These rights were tied to specific holdings or, in some cases, held more broadly by tenants. Land was managed with shared crop rotations and grazing.

Tradition was settled and it all worked. But starting in the 17th century and extending through the 19th century, Parliament pushed to privatize these lands based in part on access to power and royal privilege. The peasants were pushed out and grazing rights and farming rights long established by tradition came to an end. Make no mistake: this was an act of power, one that discredited the very idea of private property rights, which came to be seen in British culture as nothing but royal privilege.

This is what gave rise to popular resentment. It was no industrialization as such but the means chosen to force it upon an agricultural society and its settled ways. Had this been done by contact and agreement, popular opinion would have been very different.

Something very similar happened to the American South following the Civil War. The Reconstruction governments in league with Northern industrial interests forcibly industrialized large parts of the South, turning traditional agricultural lands into factories. This gave rise to a perception that industry was invasive and coercive, an imposition rather than a choice. An entire movement rose up in opposition, not because people hated progress but because they didn't want it to be rammed down their throats.

Another example came after the Second World War in the United States. The U.S. had the most sophisticated and well-developed system of passenger and cargo trains of any country in the world. But in Washington, D.C., lobbying pressure plus perceptions about an improved future essentially abandoned it all in favor of the automobile and interstate highways. Thousands of small towns were wrecked in the name of progress while historic train stations and the towns they supported were left to rot.

Even the digital revolution has been compromised by similar tactics. Benefiting mightily from pandemic-era lockdowns were the sellers of software, hardware, and online teaching platforms, paid for in substantial part by stimulus checks that later led to high inflation. Stay-at-home orders were not voluntary but another example of forced reset on behalf of industry.

Soon after, artificial intelligence engines came online but they have been greeted with great incredulity rather than excitement. A major reason for this was timing. The same industries that benefit from the lockdowns were now riding high with yet another toy, this one designed to replace human intelligence with machines. It's no wonder people have doubts.

This also figures into why there is such public opposition to the data centers springing up all over the country. The constant buzzing sounds they impose on a community are insufferable. They amount to what economists call a negative externality. Also, much of the land on which they are being built is being seized by eminent domain which amounts to stealing even when it is compensated.

This is not choice, it is not organic, and it is not voluntary. These centers feel like they are part of a central plan imposed upon settled communities nationwide. That they have engendered bipartisan resentment is hardly surprising.

It's the same with Flock surveillance cameras going up everywhere. We are told that they are for crime control but people know better. They are methods to keep tabs on the population generally speaking for purposes of control. That's the key: the building of the control grid. Something prevents people from embracing this and it comes down to one intuition: the desire to be free from impositions by a corporatized ruling class.

None of this feels like organic developments that are part of a normal market process. We see how technological revolution in history is often accompanied by grave acts of coercions. It's these acts that discredit what they are calling progress and give rise to populist movements that are too easily dismissed as reactionary. They are more likely rooted in a normal desire on the part of regular people to be left alone.

We can tick through other examples: rural electrification in the United States, collectivized agriculture in the Soviet Union, demographic scrambling in Mao's China, even the Green New Deal in the United States with its wind turbines and solar mandates. We could even put vaccine mandates in this list: they infuriate people even when the product works. No one likes to be forced into another man's definition of progress.

The free market is a wonderful thing but these examples are not rooted in normal market forces, much less the ideal of competition.

We are a long way from Adam Smith's utopia of butchers, bakers, and brewers.

This is the building of a control grid that seems to treat regular people with disdain, as rats in a laboratory experiment. It's hardly a surprise that it has again been greeted with public incredulity and even fierce opposition.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 14:45

Wheat Futs Surge To Three-Year High As JPMorgan, HSBC Warn Global Food Shock Is Brewing

Wheat futures surged to a three-year high on Wednesday morning as traders repriced a nasty convergence of supply risks across the global agricultural supply chain. Ongoing drone and missile attacks on critical Black Sea shipping and port infrastructure are constraining Russian and Ukrainian exports, while severe Northern Hemisphere heat waves and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are amplifying concerns that another food-inflation cycle could rear its ugly head next year.

Bloomberg reported that the most-active Chicago wheat contract jumped as much as 2.4% to $7.2025 a bushel, its highest level since July 2023. Futures have gained about 12% so far this month.

Russia and Ukraine, two of the world's most important breadbaskets, account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports and are also major suppliers of corn, barley, and sunflower oil. The Black Sea conflict has escalated since early July, with both sides targeting bulk carriers, ports, and other infrastructure critical to transporting grain and other agricultural products to the rest of the world.

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Moscow rejected Kyiv's proposal for a ceasefire covering ships carrying agricultural goods through the Black Sea. In return, Russia sought guarantees that Ukraine would stop attacking its energy infrastructure, including refineries.

Zelenskyy said Kyiv was prepared to discuss an energy truce, but only on a reciprocal basis. Reuters reported that the two sides remain divided.

Troubling new estimates suggest Ukraine's agricultural exports could collapse by 54% to about 29.6 million tons during the 2026-27 marketing year, down from an earlier estimate of 64.4 million tons. Wheat shipments alone could plunge by 53% to 8.3 million tons.

Meanwhile, Russian wheat exports in August are also expected to fall by more than 50% from a year earlier. Several terminals at Novorossiysk, Russia's largest Black Sea grain-export hub, suspended operations after sustaining damage in a Ukrainian one-way attack-drone strike. The two damaged facilities have a combined annual export capacity of more than 14 million tons, according to S&P Global.

Port bottlenecks are also growing. Bloomberg reported today that as many as 70 ships were queued near the Danube's Sulina Canal. Massive shipping delays have sent freight costs surging.

More broadly, the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 major crop products, has also jumped to a three-year high. 

Wall Street warnings that a food crisis could erupt as soon as next year are growing louder.

The latest came from HSBC economist Jamie Culling, who covers Australia, New Zealand, and global commodities. In a Tuesday note titled "Food Prices Rising Due to the Weather and Wars," Culling warned that global agricultural "buffers are now starting to run down."

Last week, JPMorgan global economist Nora Szentivanyi issued a similar warning, saying the next global food crisis "won't be short-lived."

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 14:25

Trump Admin Defends Kennedy Center Name Plan, Warns Of Demolition Risk

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration told a federal judge that the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington could face demolition without major renovations.

Lawyers for the Justice Department made the case in a late Monday filing in defense of a recent board resolution that would add language recognizing President Donald Trump on the building and rename the grounds.

The board of trustees for the center voted Aug. 13 to place the words "Restored and Renovated by President Donald J. Trump" below the center's formal name. It also approved calling the physical site the "President Donald J. Trump Plaza."

Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), a board member, had asked U.S. District Judge Christopher R. Cooper to block the move. Beatty's emergency motion seeks an injunction against the name recognition resolution.

In response, Justice Department attorney Brantley T. Mayers wrote that the center sits in a "financial and structural death spiral." The filing describes the building as "dangerously dilapidated, outdated, and decrepit."

"Without those efforts, the Center will deteriorate further into an unsafe, decrepit structure that will be required to be taken down, with a determination to follow on what to build on the site," the filing states, pointing toward one long-discussed alternative in the form of a large outdoor amphitheater overlooking the Potomac River.

Mayers argued that blocking recognition of Trump would cause donors to flee, financial contributions to slow, and structural work to stop.

"The crisis is so acute that, without the Trump Administration, its people, and President Trump, the Center cannot survive, either structurally or financially," the filing says.

Cooper ruled in May that an earlier board decision to rename the institution the "Donald J. Trump and the John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts" violated federal law. Only Congress can change the name, the judge found. Trump's name was removed from the facade in June.

The new resolution stops short of a complete rename. Administration lawyers contend it stays within the board's authority and does not violate the prior order.

A hearing is set for Thursday. The board has said it will not implement the inscriptions before Sept. 8 at the earliest.

The Kennedy Center opened in 1971 as a living memorial to the slain president. Its board, controlled by Trump appointees, has pushed renovations for months, with Trump describing the building as in poor shape and positioning the project as essential to its future.

The filing urges Cooper to deny Beatty's request, describing the recognition language as a necessary acknowledgment for the administration's role in any renovation and rescue effort.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 14:05

Yields Hit Session High After Subpar 5Y Auction Tails For 10th Consecutive Time As Foreign Buyers Shrink

While yesterday's 2 Year auction was absolutely blockbuster, today's sale of 5Y paper left quite a bit to be desired.

Starting at the top, today's sale of $70BN in 2Y paper priced at a high yield of 4.393%, which was modestly below last month's 4.408% if at the high end of all auctions in the past few years. It also tailed the When Issued 4.391% by 0.2bps, which was the 15th consecutive auction without a Stop Through, and the 10th tailing auction in a row.

The bid to cover was 2.37, an improvement to last month's 2.28 and better than the recent average of 2.32. It was also the highest bid to cover going back to November 2025. 

The internals were weaker, with foreign buyers taking down 61.5%, up from 59.2% last month if below the recent average of 65.4%. And with Directs hanging in there, and taking 28.4% of the auction, the most since January, Dealers were left holding 10.0%, the lowest since December. 

Overall, this was a solid, if notably weaker auction than yesterday's phenomenal 2Y sale, and the continued drift higher in the 10Y yield and the entire curve to session highs, confirmed the market's muted reception.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 13:49

The Unsustainable $40 Trillion National Debt

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The national debt has now passed $40 trillion. It stands at 120 percent of GDP. That should alarm us and probably does but let's just be honest: no one can conceive of such figures. They are just floating zeros and no one has any sense of whether and to what extent this portends economic doom for us. Maybe it does or maybe it doesn't.

An electronic display shows the national debt in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 19, 2026. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

You can perhaps conceptualize this better by considering household finance. The extent of the debt burden a household can handle depends on the ratio of financial inflows to outflows in the form of debt service. This is the debt-to-income ratio. Another consideration looks at assets that would need to be liquidated should bankruptcy arrive. That's the debt-to-assets ratio.

The usual financial advice for a household is to keep the debt-to-income ratio in the range of 30 percent. As for debt-to-assets, anything beyond 50 percent is overly vulnerable to shocks that could turn everything south and quickly, leading to tragedy with even small changes in interest rates, stock valuations, business fortunates, or real-estate hiccups.

And yet here we are with a 120 percent ratio of debt to GDP. This is higher than the brief blowout of the Second World War, a time when the nation was stuffed with real savings and U.S. creditworthiness was unquestioned. After the war, the nation got its fiscal house in order and it stayed that way for decades.

The turning point toward this scary debt cycle was the end of the gold standard and the Bretton Woods system that forced some degree of fiscal responsibility. Gold outflows were always going to be a consequence of extension. When the spending extravaganza of the Great Society plus the Vietnam War (guns and butter) tested the limits and nations around the world started demanding payment in specie, the United States panicked and closed the gold window for good. That was 1971 and by 1973, we had a new system: a world of floating fiat currency.

The crucial point here is that Congress no longer faced any real cost for authorizing endless spending of whatever sort. The Treasury creates the debt and sells it to bond dealers who dish it out to all takers. The buyer of last resort is of course the Federal Reserve. This is the creator of this moral hazard. It's why there is no real default premium on U.S. debt and no serious work to rate the quality of debt with any realistic measurement. It's because the Fed is there always and ever to be the buyer of last resort.

Let's put this in simpler terms. Why is it that states within the United States don't run these kinds of debts? If they do run deficits, their default risk goes up and the quality rating goes down. Most states do very well on this score with a AAA rating, whereas Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky have lower ratings. In states, there are consequences for fiscal mismanagement.

I've wondered how common the knowledge is to explain this puzzle. So I asked a conventional AI engine what it believed to be the explanation. To my amazement, the answer came back quickly and precisely: states in the union have no power to create money. Boom! That's it. That's the whole thing.

This is why every scheme for balancing the budget at the federal level has failed. There is no balanced budget amendment but it likely would not matter much anyway. We could have a quantity rule for the Federal Reserve but it would be completely unenforceable.

The only way to stop the debt madness at the federal level would be to legally prohibit the Fed's open market operations (OMOs) and related large-scale asset purchases. This would largely prevent the Federal Reserve from expanding the monetary base in its primary and most powerful way. This and this alone would bring fiscal accountability to the federal level that states face all day every year.

Absent that solution, the federal government faces the same problem that a household with too much debt faces. Eventually all its income flows will be eaten up by debt service. Right now, 19 percent of federal revenue feeds the debt machine but matters are getting worse. The latest estimates from the Congressional Budget Office forecast a coming fiscal trainwreck.

The new estimates are that if net interest averages 250 basis points (2.5 percentage points) higher than CBO's baseline assumptions, 100 percent of all revenue going to the federal government will go to paying interest on the debt by 2055. That's just not that far away. That moment spells disaster.

And this is one reason why there is such a push by both parties and all stakeholders to hold down rates as much as possible. Letting them float according to free market pressures would bankrupt the country in a period of years. But therein lies another problem. Artificially low interest rates feed inflation and distort production structures.

This is why I'm not optimistic that our problems with inflation are going away anytime soon. If the Fed were really to crack down on quantitative easing, the fiscal burden of debt would explode in ways that would limit the power of politicians and utterly blow up the bond market. It appears to me that U.S. elites have decided that a persistent 3-4 percent inflation rate is a necessary tradeoff to avoid a fiscal calamity.

I'm very sorry to be the bearer of this bad news. We've gone though heck and back over the last 5 years of inflation but the problem is not going away soon. Let's further assume that the Reality Index is correct that the real inflation rate is one-third higher than official reports. At this rate, the dollar might have lost a clean 50 percent across the board of its 2019 purchasing power in one decade. This means that the fight to achieve the American dream is ongoing.

Consider too that the unfunded liabilities assumed over a 75-year horizon is closer to $80 trillion-$90 trillion, numbers that are beyond comprehension. The answer to the debt problem, then, is to bring back fiscal discipline through serious monetary reform. Let rates rise to their market level, allow that increase to feed the fullness of the yield curve, close open market operations, and expect Congress to stop its wild behavior once and for all. There are pathways out of this mess but it will require genuine political courage to pursue them.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 13:25

Trump Sends Saudi Nuclear Accord To Congress, With Israel Normalization Still Attached

It's official - a proposed agreement with Saudi Arabia on civil nuclear energy has been submitted by the White House to Congress. 

The landmark nuclear accord would mean that uranium enrichment would eventually take place on Saudi territory. However, President Trump has included a major bombshell condition: he has not backed off requiring Saudi normalization with Israel.

Saudi state media sources

"The president's position has not changed that the agreement will only move ‌forward if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords," an admin official has made clear.

The Wall Street Journal reports that "The agreement, which ‌was reached in July and would allow U.S. companies to ​export civilian nuclear technology to the kingdom, was sent to Congress on Monday, according to the U.S. official, who ⁠declined to be identified."

But officials admit expected fierce debate in Congress, as WSJ also notes: "It was not clear how Trump expects ⁠sending the nuclear deal to Congress, which has 90 session days to consider it, will advance his objectives."

"The 30-year nuclear deal calls for the construction of AP1000 reactors, a project worth tens of billions ​of dollars that would benefit Westinghouse, jointly owned by Canada-based Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management," the same report details.

The Saudis cooled on the potential for normalization with Israel in the wake of the Gaza war. Riyadh has long been demanding nothing less than full recognition of a Palestinian state before it can join the Abraham Accords.

Given at this point that this seems an impossibility from Israel's perspective, which has effectively demolished the Gaza Strip and continues squeezing the West Bank, the Saudi nuclear deal is unlikely to happen anytime soon - and could yet be many years down the line, if at all.

Meanwhile, Tehran will seize on the hypocrisy of the West allowing uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia - and thus potential nukes - while making war on Iran and sanctioning the country for its nuclear energy program.

Any future Saudi nuclear weapon might also assure an atomic arms race in the region, and certainly the Iranians would then have greater incentive to finally build one. And it could be that they already are in secret, following the US-Israeli unprovoked attacks during Operation Epic Fury.

Why a Saudi nuclear program is not worth ending Us proliferation

Spot on article by @StrickerNonpro analysing the proliferation risks if this deal. And i would add; these proliferation risks have only increased after the Mecca agreement. https://t.co/HlG3yCUJaV

— Brian McDonald B (@iamBrianBJ) August 26, 2026

Iran sees itself as in a war for its very existence, and so would naturally respond accordingly. It also looks at nations like North Korea, who gain automatic 'respect' from Trump and others on the mere basis of possessing a nuclear arsenal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 13:05

Yet Another Church Torched: Cause "Unknown"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Yet another century-old house of worship has been wiped from the map.

The former Friendship Baptist Church in Cleveland, Ohio - a structure dating to the mid-1890s that began life as a synagogue before becoming a Baptist sanctuary - was engulfed in a massive early-morning blaze last week.

Nearly sixty firefighters fought the inferno for hours. The roof collapsed. The remnants were later demolished. Officials initially listed the cause as unknown.

BREAKING: Historic church (100+ years old) just "caught on fire" in Cleveland, unknown cause

The remains have been demolished pic.twitter.com/8mqpjCnh3Z

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) August 24, 2026

The Friendship Baptist Church in Ohio, which is over 100 years old, was destroyed by a MASSIVE fire over the weekend.

The remnants of the building were demolished after the fire was put out.

Yet another church mysteriously goes up in flames... pic.twitter.com/htIHZ6SzNA

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) August 24, 2026

? SICKENING: I'm sick and tired of watching churches burn.

Now a historic Cleveland house of worship dating back to the 1890s has been reduced to ruins. More than a century of history, gone.

And Christians are supposed to just shrug and move along?

No. Every church fire... pic.twitter.com/fXl3ovDgph

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) August 24, 2026

Gunther Eagleman wrote: "Christians are supposed to just shrug and move along? No. Every church fire deserves a serious investigation. If it's an accident, prove it. If it's arson, hunt down whoever did it and prosecute them to the fullest extent of the law. Christians should never become numb to attacks on our churches. Enough is enough. Protect our churches. Defend our faith. Demand answers."

Local fire officials have since confirmed the blaze was incendiary. Motives were not believed to be financial. Arrests were expected as investigators worked through the warrant process. The building had sat vacant for years after the congregation dwindled. Cleveland Fire Lieutenant Mike Norman called the loss "irreplaceable" and estimated damage at roughly $500,000.

This is not an isolated incident. It sits inside a lengthening list of historic Christian sites reduced to ash while official language defaults to "unknown," "under investigation," or "accidental," and political attention remains selective.

Just weeks earlier, a 164-year-old church in Leicester, UK suffered severe damage. St Andrew's Church on Jarrom Street, built in 1862 and designed by Sir George Gilbert Scott, caught fire after 11pm on July 28.

Firefighters battled through the night. The fire started on the ground floor and spread to the roof. Officials later said the most probable cause was accidental, with the building secure and no sign of forced entry. Services resumed in the church hall. The Pope sent a letter of solidarity. Repairs could take years.

That Leicester fire followed the complete destruction of the historic Kings Hall Methodist Church in Southall, West London, in February. More than ten fire engines and around seventy firefighters responded as the over-100-year-old building was reduced largely to ashes. The government response was muted.

Days later then Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed clear concern over a security incident at Manchester Central Mosque during Ramadan and highlighted up to £40 million in funding for additional security at mosques, Muslim schools and community centres. He remained silent on the Southall church and the wider pattern of attacks on Christian sites.

National Churches Trust data has recorded hundreds of attacks on churches, including arson, and thousands of crimes at church properties in recent years, with security funding per site far lower than for mosques or synagogues.

In the US, in Buffalo, the 140-year-old former St. Ann's Church and Shrine was hit by multiple fires this year after its 2022 sale to a group affiliated with the Downtown Islamic Center for conversion into an Islamic community centre.

Two blazes within four days in July were confirmed as arson. Local officials expressed frustration at the owners' failure to secure the vacant landmark.

New York City saw the 173-year-old South Bushwick Reformed Church in Brooklyn gutted in June. The cause was initially listed as under investigation before the FDNY confirmed it was intentionally set.

A person of interest was seen fleeing on video; no arrest followed. The city rejected a preservation plan and ordered demolition.

Weeks earlier a 138-year-old church in Astoria, Queens, suffered severe damage in a five-alarm fire, also followed by rapid moves toward demolition.

In Canada, arson attacks on churches more than doubled after 2021. A Macdonald-Laurier Institute report found fewer than 4 percent of cases resulted in charges. One of the more recent examples was the 1893 church in Saint-Romain, Quebec, destroyed by fire in April and treated as arson.

France has recorded nearly fifty fires or arson attempts on churches and Christian sites in a single recent year.

A 19th-century church in Montenach was gutted in May.

Other historic sites, including a 17th-century chapel and a cloister, suffered major fire damage around the same period. Studies have noted a Christian religious building disappearing every two weeks through fire, collapse or deliberate damage.

Across these cases the official language often settles on "unknown," "accidental," or "under investigation." Suspects are rarely identified.

Historic Christian buildings disappear while demographic shifts continue and political priorities remain selective.

The Cleveland fire is simply the latest entry in a lengthening record. Christians are told to move along. Enough is enough.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 12:45

The Great Games Afoot

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Brent oil is lower today at $86 on a bundle of news: US Secretary of State Rubio told allies strikes against Iran were off the table --for now -- and sanctions were on it; the US was reported to be returning some diplomats to Middle East embassies withdrawn over security fears; and Iran and Oman said they had discussed a Hormuz temporary corridor and mine-clearing – though Iran reiterated that the strait is still closed and just attacked another ship. There’s a Great Game afoot there, obviously.

The regional view is that Iran is running out of money, with the UAE and Iraq in particular showing how Tehran can be hit economically. Yet the US isn’t targeting China’s support for Iran, which Beijing has defended, warned against disrupting -- Bloomberg says with “defiance”, and threatened to retaliate against. There’s a Great Game afoot there too, of course.

Bonds liked lower oil prices. 10- and 30-year US Treasury yields were down 7bps and 9bps respectively this week at time of writing. That’s despite an AI-written op-ed from former Bessent and Warsh boss and hedge fund maven Druckenmiller, which criticises the Treasury Secretary’s bond market machinations and arguing price discovery is paramount. There’s a Great Game afoot in that public spat too. As Bloomberg puts it today, ‘Short Squeeze in US Long Bonds Shows ‘Bessent Put’ at Work.’ Gold is not showing signs of capitulation, however.

CIA Director Ratcliffe flew to Moscow for what seems to have been 15 minutes of dialogue. The last time that happened was just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Vatican envoy was also in Moscow calling for an urgent end to the war. Both come after Europe offered further direct military support to Kyiv, the UK pledging blueprints of advanced missiles, despite Russian warnings this crosses their red line; reports of imminent Russian mobilisation of up to 500,000 men; Sweden reviving talk of seizing Russia’s frozen FX assets; accelerated UK civil defence planning against Moscow’s threats; and a UK government warning to Brits to stock up on food amid threat from “climate crisis” and “hostile states.” Did Ratcliffe talk Iran? Was he ‘palling with Putin’? Did he warn Moscow not to escalate vs Ukraine? Or did he try to de-escalate Russian actions vs a UK PM with no foreign policy experience trying to charm EU leaders? There’s a dangerous Great Game in that tangle of questions.

Ex-Soviet Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and Armenia, along with Montenegro, want to join the EU. Iceland was just told if it votes to start membership talks Saturday it could be in by 2028: colour in more blue on the map: don’t add any military to defend it. Canada also wants deeper relations with Europe, necessitating a loss of sovereignty, as its press claims it’s ‘fighting for its sovereignty’ with Americans who “don’t even realise they’re in a war.” A combustible pocket of the US press now accuses PM Carney of “colluding” with US Democrats in appointing “a long-time Democrat political operative” to the new position of Chief Operating Officer of the Prime Minister’s Office, the equivalent of the White House Chief of Staff. All the above is a Great Game too if you choose to see it, even if some don’t always understand the rules it’s played by.

Yet Americans, Canadians, and everyone else can see the ensuing North American trade war. Canada just raised its tariffs on the US to 50% in response to Trump. Some of the Canadian press ask, “Where's the plan to keep industry from fleeing?” Meanwhile, Trump is now saying he’ll rename Lake Ontario to Lake America: what can Canada rename to match?

In US politics, a judge reversed the reversal of her order by the Supreme Court seen the previous day which opened the door to significant changes in how the US postal service handles mail-in voting in elections. As Axios notes, this Great Game still has further to run as we sprint towards the midterms.

The South China Morning Post hammers home: ‘No immunity: how Xi’s anti-corruption fighters are zeroing in on fresh targets.’ Just below that headline is one that ‘Hong Kong’s property, financial markets face test under cross-border anti-corruption law.’ Quite.

And in Japanese politics, PM Takaichi is quoted as saying, I'm so lonely I befriended a cockroach.’

Sticking to the mundane ‘higher/lower’ game of modern markets, Australian CPI came in hotter than expected just after the RBA minutes said the Bank thought it had peaked. Headline CPI was 1.0% m-o-m and 3.5% y-o-y vs. 0.9% and 3.2% consensus, and trimmed mean was 0.5% m-o-m and 3.6% y-o-y vs. 0.3% and 3.5%. A lot of that was driven by fuel, but also by domestic holiday and travel, led by fuel, and restaurant meals, led by food led by fuel. Even clothing and footwear, furniture, and household equipment, all of which need inputs led by fuel and distribution led by fuel, came in stronger than expected. The market is now chattering about the RBA hiking again in September just a day after it was of totally different mind.

Was this a shock given Reuters notes almost half of global oil now flows from war zones? Geopolitics is not something exogenous one can ignore: it lies at the heart of inflationary problems.

When do central banks and modellers grasp the fuel component in CPI, like critical minerals and electricity, flows on to other things – and without the deflationary impact of a ‘China shock’ for those states opting to try to retain local industry? When will their focus shift to *supply* not demand? And, linking back to Bessent, when will they see lower yields as a means to that end rather than towards ‘Buy all the things!!’ Pavlovian responses?

That may not be Great for some. But it’s now The Game.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 12:05

Democratic Party Panics As Top Lieutenants Move In Lockstep To Denounce Hasan Piker

The higher-ups in the Democratic Party establishment are clearly terrified of Hasan Piker, one of the most influential media surrogates for the Democratic Socialists of America - whose members want to "dismantle the empire from within."

Piker specifically instructed his followers to kill capitalists and "let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood." 

Hasan Piker calls on his followers to kill capitalists:

“Yeah kill them! KiII those motherfuckers and murder those motherfuckers in the streets. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood, dude.”

Democrats are campaigning with him. pic.twitter.com/YiZxGgRkgc

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) April 9, 2026

And while mainstream Democrats didn't take issue with Piker's calls to murder capitalists, the highest-ranking Democrat in the House of Representatives, Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), blasted Piker for antisemitism during an appearance on CNN: 

BREAKING: Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), the highest-ranking Democrat in the House of Representatives, condemns Hasan Piker’s antisemitism, calling him out by name on CNN. pic.twitter.com/AijXjuRGmk

— Hen Mazzig (@HenMazzig) August 25, 2026

X user OSZ pointed out that Jeffries was not the only one condemning Piker; other top lieutenants of the Democratic Party establishment did so as well:

Multiple Democrats in Congress condemned Hasan Piker today

🔵 Hakeem Jeffries
🔵 Elissa Slotkin
🔵 Josh Gottheimer
🔵 Jacky Rosen
🔵 Ritchie Torres pic.twitter.com/2UUFMFtJUc

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) August 25, 2026

DSA Watch pointed out that Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) also blasted Piker's rhetoric...

Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) says Hasan Piker’s rhetoric is “wrong, dangerous, and antisemitic.” https://t.co/GH2RolGxuF pic.twitter.com/Avduwh0Yls

— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) August 26, 2026

Meanwhile, DSA Watch posted a snippet from Piker's stream in which he apparently experienced what the X user described as a "multi-day meltdown" after the media turned against him.

Hasan Piker, continuing his multi-day meltdown, is upset the Media is showing his statements he made online without interviewing him pic.twitter.com/6TbpHISWG2

— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) August 26, 2026

Here are Piker's previous comments:

• "We're Here To Destroy The White Race": Democratic Socialist Of America Hero Declares War On West
• Assassination Sing-A-Long: Hasan Piker Mocks The Murdered Charlie Kirk To Cheering Crowd

Piker also spilled the beans about what appears to be an influence network.

• Hasan Piker Says Quiet Part Out Loud, Maps Radical Left NGO Network To China-Based Marxist Financier

Also, the feds are closing in:

• Feds Subpoena Hasan Piker, CodePink Cofounder Over "Humanitarian" Trip To Communist Cuba
• Feds Nab Alleged Member Of "Sprawling" Cuban Communist Subversion Network Linked To Hasan Piker's Havana Trip
• "Americans Deserve To Know": State Dept. Report Details Cuban Espionage, Subversion, And Role In Rise Of Far Left
• Democratic Socialist Leaders Squirm When Asked About Cuba, Venezuela, And Nicaragua's Dictatorships

Piker:

Related:

• Socialist Leader Says Quiet Part Out Loud: Affordability Pitch Masks "Guerrilla Class War" To "Bleed Enemy Dry"

What is clear is that senior Democrats are moving in a coordinated fashion to distance the party from Piker and the far-left radicals in DSA. The concerted effort suggests that party strategists may be seeing internal polling data showing that such links are politically toxic beyond the progressive base and could become a major liability in general elections.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 11:45

SoftBank Credit Risk Rises As Firm Mulls $20 Billion Bond Sale For OpenAI Stake

SoftBank Group's 8.5% notes due 2036 fell as much as 2.5 cents to about 98 cents on the dollar after Bloomberg reported that Masayoshi Son's conglomerate is considering a $10 billion to $20 billion bond offering, prompting traders to price in additional leverage and supply risk as the investment firm plans to refinance the massive bridge loan backing its OpenAI investment.

Sources familiar with SoftBank's plans said the potential bond offering could be denominated in dollars and euros, though they stressed that its size and timing could change. Proceeds would be used partly to repay a $40 billion bridge loan secured earlier this year to fund SoftBank's OpenAI investment and partly to finance additional artificial intelligence investments.

Masayoshi Son's junk-rated conglomerate plans to invest more than $65 billion in OpenAI by October, funding one of the largest private AI bets in history partly with borrowed money.

"We are considering various options to refinance the bridge loan, but nothing has been decided, including the amount for each," a SoftBank spokesperson told the outlet. 

The report noted:

Unlike most of its international offerings, SoftBank is exploring a 144A format for the first time in more than a decade, which would allow the notes to be sold to institutional investors in the US, the people said. That would help the company tap a larger pool of capital and potentially boost demand for the sale, they added.

US hyperscalers are expected to pour trillions of dollars into data centers and other AI infrastructure over the coming years. These firms have already borrowed more than $410 billion so far this year, putting pressure on debt markets. There are also $3.1 trillion in hyperscaler off-balance-sheet commitments that have come into question, as we noted in our latest report here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 11:10

Trump Admin Pauses All Visa Appointments Worldwide

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration has paused visa appointments for applicants worldwide as the State Department launches a global training initiative at all U.S. embassies and consulates, according to a department spokesperson. Appointments for visa services will be rescheduled to accommodate the training.

The State Department offered no specific details on the training or its timeline. Officials said the initiative aims to help consular officers screen out applicants deemed likely to become dependent on U.S. public benefits. It is also intended to ensure evaluation of visa applicants comprehensively and consistently.

"A more prosperous America means ensuring that visa applicants are not likely to become a public charge, as defined under U.S. law and regulation, and not likely to become dependent on U.S. public benefits reserved for qualified Americans in need," a State Department spokesperson said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.

Immigrant visa applicants with scheduled interviews at U.S. embassies and consulates have been contacted about any changes to their appointments, the spokesperson said.

The State Department has not indicated how long the adjustments will last.

The step comes during an ongoing enforcement of federal immigration laws in President Donald Trump's second term. That effort has included revocations of visas and green cards, with applications rejected for reasons ranging from political opinions to participation in pro-Palestinian protests against U.S. ally Israel's war in Gaza.

A spokesman for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) said certain behaviors and statements "may raise serious concerns for USCIS personnel reviewing an applicant's file, including espousing terrorist ideologies, expressing hatred for American values, advocating for the violent overthrow of the United States government, or providing material support to terrorist organizations," adding that such actions "warrant closer scrutiny."

Trump campaigned in 2024 on stopping illegal immigration. His administration has also made legal immigration more difficult. One example involves new and expensive fees for certain work visa applicants.

The measures have faced legal setbacks. A U.S. judge on Aug. 21 struck down a Trump administration policy that suspended issuance of immigrant visas to applicants from 75 countries. The judge ruled the policy exceeded Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statutory authority.

U.S. District Judge Jeannette Vargas in Manhattan called the policy - issued by the State Department in January - "patently unlawful" and said it did not comply with federal immigration law.

"Consular officers were ordered to refuse immigrant visas to nationals of the 75 designated countries, regardless of whether the consular officer had, following an individualized assessment, determined that the applicant was not likely to become a public charge and that the applicant was otherwise eligible for a visa," Vargas wrote in her ruling.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 10:50

WTI Rises After Big Product Draws, Tiny Crude Build, SPR Nears 'Tank Bottoms'

Oil prices extended their declines for a third straight day after the US plan to ramp up economic pressure on Iran spared the country’s trading partners from harsher measures for now, while mediators said they were continuing efforts to end the conflict.

“There was a lot of buildup around the announcement but what we got was more a warning about where policy is heading than an immediate shock to physical supply,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Karobaar Capital LP. “Until secondary sanctions start changing who can buy, ship or even finance Iranian crude, I don’t think traders have much reason to add another geopolitical premium.”

Oman and Iran said the countries' foreign ministers discussed an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under a temporary framework.

Negotiations between the two countries will continue "with a view to agreeing on a permanent navigational corridor and future administration of the strait," the joint statement said.

While positive, an agreement between Oman and Iran wouldn't result in oil flows through the strait returning to prewar levels, ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said.

"We would likely need to see the U.S. lift its blockade on Iranian ports and ease sanctions on Iran before we see any move towards normalization."

All eyes on domestic supply (and demand) for the next tactical leg...

API

• Crude +4.2mm

• Cushing +1.0mm

• Gasoline -3.2mm

• Distillates -459k

DOE

• Crude +95k (+500k exp)

• Cushing +1.18mm

• Gasoline -2.54mm

• Distillates -2.23mm

Crude stocks rose for the 4th straight week (but it was a tiny 95k increase) while Cushing saw a modest build off tank bottoms. Product inventories saw large drawdowns..

The Trump admin drained another 3.6mm barrels from the SPR to 289.7 million barrels (1983 lows), approaching the minimum operational level for storage facilities, which ranges between 250 and 300 million barrels.

The combination of a tiny commercial crude build and sizable SPR drain created the biggest net crude drawdown in over a month...

Cushing stocks remain very near 'tank bottoms'

Distillates stocks fell back near 25 year lows...

...and the lowest seasonally on record...

US crude imports from Saudi Arabia picked up recently (but remain well below peak war levels). Crude exports fell below 4 million barrels a day, a threshold closely watched by the market to gauge demand. 

US Crude production remains near record highs and while the rig count dipped last week, it is still trending higher overall...

Refining utilization rates are at the highest seasonal level since 1998. That is, in part, due to a shrinking US refining fleet in recent years. But it’s also evidence of how hard fuel-makers are running their plants right now to capture wide margins. They plan to keep that up into the fall, with some companies even deferring maintenance.

US gasoline demand remains 'normal' for this time of year...

WTI was hovering around $81.50 (off the overnight lows) ahead of the official data (down from almost $88 last week)...

Crude is still up about 50% this year as the war - now in its sixth month - continues to disrupt the shipping of crude and refined fuels out of the Middle East.

The impact has been particularly acute in fuel markets, which have also faced a hit from Ukrainian attacks on Russian refiners. That’s helped push premiums over crude to stratospheric levels (but the crack spread is starting to decline)...

At the same time, large volumes of crude supplies continue to transit Hormuz with their satellite signals turned off.

Those volumes are in millions of barrels a day and have helped generally keep a lid on prices that had been expected to soar at the outset of the conflict.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 10:40

"This Is Crazy" - FTC Chair Responds To Soaring Chip Costs, Floats Possible Antitrust Action

We’ve covered soaring “chipflation” for months and the trend does not seem to be abating. Nvidia is reportedly informing its largest customers to expect price hikes of at least 15% for next year, possibly to set expectations of a still larger move upward… and meanwhile the semi component in the PPI looks like a 2021 memecoin:

All this has earned the attention of FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson, who apparently enjoys building his own personal computers. In an interview last week in Aspen, Ferguson said he was floored by the recent explosion in prices.

“I build my own desktops at home mostly for fun, and a year ago, I decided that my rig needed to be updated, and I was like, ‘Oh well, you know, RAM is pretty cheap right now, maybe I’ll do that.’ And then the job got busy, and I was like, ‘I’ll take a look at this later.’ In six months, I looked at RAM prices and went, ‘Oh my God, I’m not building this right now. This is crazy.’”

As we covered last month, consumer electronics across the board are forecasting price hikes in the double digits, with Samsung tablets and Xbox consoles expected to increase by 20-25% by next year, per Haver Analytics. On this topic, Ferguson added that he “[does not] want consumers to have to pay way more for chips than they have to for all sorts of other applications, including the phones that we have cast all about us.”

And just yesterday, Amazon announced 60% price hikes for its major hardware products, blaming the chip shortage.

In April, Senator Bernie Moreno, who represents many car manufacturers in Ohio, wrote to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick asking the government to restrict chip exports to increase domestic supplies, citing concern that the American auto industry won't be able to compete on the global market due to "higher prices and supply delays" of chips.

FTC Chair Ferguson floated the idea of using antitrust measures to crack down on some of the chip giants, in an effort to “focus on the meat and potatoes” of what’s fueling the broader AI-related inflation crisis.

“That we can do,” he said when asked about whether his agency could intervene. “That’s just ordinary industrial organization economics and antitrust,”

FTC chair Andrew Ferguson (right) sat down with CNBC’s Brian Sullivan last week at the Technology Policy Institute’s Aspen summit.

“We know when consolidation there becomes dangerous. We know when agreements are likely to raise prices or reduce competition or cut off innovation, as opposed to trying to get out in front of the AI developers,” Ferguson continued. “It would be insane for a regulator to say, ‘I know where it’s going, and I’m going to make predictive regulatory choices on that basis.’ But further back in the supply chain, that we can apply ordinary antitrust to.”

Pressed on a hypothetical merger between Nvidia and chip designer ARM, the chairman appeared to issue a soft warning.

“I think if Nvidia and ARM were to merge, we would have to take a very careful look at that,” Ferguson said. “That is antitrust enforcer speak for, you know, we would have concerns.”

Ferguson said earlier in the conversation that keeping AI’s raw inputs competitive is his top antitrust priority.

“I want to make sure that the markets for the inputs for AI remain competitive. I don’t want there to develop overnight sudden bottleneck monopolies in the inputs for AI that deprive downstream users of the benefits of competition because someone upstream in the supply chain gets to jack up everyone’s prices because it’s enjoying a monopoly and maintaining it illegally,” he said.

Some foreign chip makers are already under fire for potential collusion and price fixing.

In June, a class action lawsuit was filed against the three dominant DRAM makers - South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix and America's Micron. The lawsuit alleges that the three companies, which control ~90% of the DRAM semiconductor, have conspired to restrict the supply of memory and have driven prices up 697% compounded by 2022 to 2026. The lawsuit alleges all three companies had simultaneous production cuts and have not expanded supply despite record prices.

The lawsuit notes: “DRAM is embedded in virtually every electronic device manufactured today. When Defendants coordinate to restrict DRAM supply and inflate prices, the cost increase is passed through to consumers across every one of these product categories—smartphones, PCs, gaming consoles, servers, automobiles, and consumer electronics. No device category escapes the impact.”

If found guilty, it wouldn’t be the first time.

In the mid-2000s, Samsung and Hynix pleaded guilty to fixing DRAM prices. Samsung paid a whopping $300 million fine, the second largest criminal antitrust fine in U.S. history at the time.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 10:00

Meta Settles With US States For $16.7 Billion Over Social Media Harms To Children

Meta Platforms has reached a $16.7 billion settlement to resolve a landmark claim brought by several states that the company designed Instagram and Facebook to addict children, improperly collected children's personal data, and misled consumers about their safety. 

The deal was in a Wednesday court filing in California after a lawsuit was brought by 29 states - with attorneys for  Colorado, California, New Jersey and Kentucky - leading the group. The states argued that features like infinite scroll were purposely engineered to keep young users hooked, that Meta misled the public about the safety of its platforms for adolescents, and that the company improperly collected and monetized children's personal data in violation of federal law.

As part of the settlement, Meta must implement daily usage limits and 'nighttime blocks' for teenagers who use the company's apps like Facebook and Instagram, as well as "enhanced age assurance measures" that would prevent children from using them, and also providing parents with additional tools, CNBC reports.

Additionally, Meta is tying another $5.3 billion of the settlement to Google and TikTok adopting similar teen safety measures - cutting default teen time limits from 2 hours to 1 hour per day. 

The attorneys general of Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming joined the settlement.

Prior to the settlement, Meta warned that maximum statutory penalties could theoretically reach $1.4 trillion, while the attorneys general have indicated they may seek around $200 billion. That said, the company still faces thousands of lawsuits filed by school districts and individual plaintiffs alleging harms from social media. 

While shares spiked as much as 5% premarket on the news, the move was quickly reversed at market open.

h ttps://x.com/TrwendSpider/status/2092360371138932969?s=202

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 09:19

CIA Director Held Covert Moscow Talks With Russian Intel Chiefs As Relations Sink Deeper Into "Crisis"

Summary: 

• CIA Director Ratcliffe Met With Senior Russian intelligence officials, Not Putin
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov Says Meeting Focused On Repairing Bilateral US-Russia Relations In "Deep Crisis" 
• CIA Director Ratcliffe On USAF Cargo Jet Flight To Moscow
• US Air Force C-17 Makes Mysterious Visit To Moscow 

New Details On Ratcliffe's Trip To Moscow 

CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow on a US Air Force C-17 transport jet on Tuesday morning for meetings with Russian intelligence officials, according to CBS News.

The outlet cited Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who confirmed Wednesday that Ratcliffe met with senior Russian intelligence officials but not President Vladimir Putin.

Putin was later briefed on the talks, according to Peskov, who cautioned that it was too early to determine whether the meeting could help pull bilateral US-Russian relations out of their "deep crisis."

The visit marks Ratcliffe's first known trip to Russia since becoming CIA director, though he has maintained contact with Russian intelligence counterparts, CBS noted.

CBS continued:

Ahead of his trip, the US told Ukrainian officials that a senior delegation would be traveling to Moscow and asked Kyiv to suspend strikes until the delegation's departure from Russia, according to a senior Ukrainian official.

The secretive trip comes as US-mediated peace talks remain stalled and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have stoked a refined-products crisis that is spreading worldwide in the form of diesel shortages. We must note the energy crisis has been compounded by tanker transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. 

CIA Director Ratcliffe On USAF Cargo Jet Flight To Moscow 

CIA Director John Ratcliffe was onboard the U.S. Air Force C-17A Globemaster lll that landed early Tuesday at Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport, in order to attend several high-level meetings with Russian officials, according to CBS News. pic.twitter.com/m4qg9apy3V

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) August 25, 2026

CBS News Senior White House reporter Jennifer Jacobs has provided some clarity on the mysterious US Air Force Boeing C-17 Globemaster III military transport aircraft that flew to Moscow earlier today.

Jacobs said, "Scoop: CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Russia aboard a C-17 for meetings in Moscow today, sources told @Olivia_Gazis @JimLaPorta and me. @CBSNews." 

Scoop: CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Russia aboard a C-17 for meetings in Moscow today, sources told @Olivia_Gazis @JimLaPorta and me. @CBSNews

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) August 25, 2026 US Air Force C-17 Makes Mysterious Visit To Moscow 

A US Air Force Boeing C-17 Globemaster III military transport aircraft landed at Moscow's Vnukovo International Airport on Tuesday, according to flight-tracking website Flightradar24.

The C-17 arrived from Riga, Latvia, where it landed on Sunday, according to Flightradar24 data. Flight data show that the military transport plane was recently at Camp Springs, Maryland, home to Joint Base Andrews, which supports presidential and senior US government travel.

"An unusual visitor to Moscow this morning. A US Air Force C-17A Globemaster III flew from Riga to Moscow Vnukovo Airport," Flightradar24 wrote on X early Tuesday.

An unusual visitor to Moscow this morning. 👀

A US Air Force C-17A Globemaster III flew from Riga to Moscow Vnukovo Airporthttps://t.co/D7vylYesDQ pic.twitter.com/jXbOSj0LXM

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) August 25, 2026

Flightradar24 shows the C-17's latest activity over the past seven days:

Russian business news website RBC confirmed that a US military transport aircraft had landed at Moscow's Vnukovo International Airport.

Russian state-owned news agency TASS also reported that an "American Boeing C-17A Globemaster III military transport aircraft has reportedly landed in Moscow."

More from TASS:

A source within EU air traffic control authorities told TASS that the plane, having originally flown from Andrews Air Force Base to Latvia, had indeed continued its journey toward the Russian border. The source confirmed that the aircraft proceeded toward Russia's border after its stop in Riga. Additionally, the source noted that prior to this, the plane had also visited Charleston Airport.

There has been no official confirmation from the US about the C-17's landing in Moscow. The flight could indicate support for a senior US delegation, the transportation of diplomatic cargo or a prisoner transfer. Keep in mind that Joint Base Andrews is a major hub for US government and military missions.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 09:01

Q2 GDP Grew At Modest 1.5% According To Latest Revision, As Expected

While far less relevant than the rest of today's data barrage, including the core PCE report and Durable Goods data which showed a mixed real-time picture of the economy as core prices rose more than expected while core CapEx missed expectations, the BEA also reported its second revision of Q2 GDP data - yes, for the quarter ended June 30 or almost two months ago - and which came in at 1.5%, right on top of expectations, and unchanged from the previous estimate.

According to the BEA, contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were increases in consumer spending, exports, and investment that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. 

Compared to the first quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected a downturn in government spending and decelerations in investment and exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports increased more in the second quarter than in the first quarter. 

As shown in the chart below, virtually all growth in Q2 GDP came from personal consumption, which added 2.31% to the bottom line 1.5%, GDP print, or more than all of it. On an annualized basis, personal consumption rose 3.4% q/q, beating the 3.2% median estimate and also advance reading. 

Another 1.2% came from Fixed Investment, all of which was the result of non-residential construction (data centers and intellectual property products). On the other end, Net Exports subtracted a total of 1.14% from the bottom line GDP print while the change in private inventories detracted another 0.72%. Finally government erased another 0.16% from the GDP print. 

There was some better news when it comes to real gross domestic income (GDI) which increased 2.2% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2% in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 1.8%, compared with an increase of 1.7%.

And while it is especially irrelevant in light of today's much more up-to-date core PCE data, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.8% in the second quarter, revised up 0.1% point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 5.3% revised up 0.2%, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 3.6%, also revised up 0.2% point. However, as noted previously, this is for a quarter that ended 2 months ago so ignore all of the above.

Finally, profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $400.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $74.4 billion in the first quarter

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 08:45