Zero Rss

WTI Rises As Distillate Stocks Draw, Cushing Back Near 'Tank Bottoms', SPR At 43-Year Lows

Oil prices are chopping sideways (to modestly higher) for the second day in a row as traders weighed the 'dark fleet' transits with renewed tensions in the Middle East further clouding the outlook for flows through the vital Strait of Hormuz.

“A combination of the escalation between the UAE and Iran, coupled with a market increasingly pricing a ‘closed for longer scenario,’ keeps oil and refined products supported,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management.

Combine that with the ever-decreasing poll of global inventories (to soak up any supply shortage)...

...and every incremental report on supply and production matters (especially for refined products).

API

• Crude -328k

• Cushing -1.4mm

• Gasoline +1.1mm

• Distillates -2.8mm

DOE

• Crude +4.41mm (-707k exp)

• Cushing -1.314mm - biggest draw since mid-June

• Gasoline +688k

• Distillates -1.53mm

After last week's massive crude inventory build, expectations were a calmer week (API showed a small draw). The official data showed a sizable build (4.41mm barrels) for the 3rd week in a row while Cushing stocks slipped back. Products were mixed with Distillates drawing down for a 3rd week...

Cushing stocks remain near 'tank bottoms'...

The SPR saw another drain...

...pushing stocks back to ever lower lows (1983 lows now)...

US crude production rose last week, edging closer to record highs as rig counts continue to rise...

Crude imports eased after a big surge a week earlier mostly thanks to a significant slide in volumes from Canada. Still, shipments from Venezuela remain very strong holding above 700,000 barrels a day and near the highest levels since 2017. 

WTI Crude is rising on the report back up near $85...

Finally, as we have noted numerous times recently, it's not crude that is the center of the current crisis but refined products with fuel prices, especially diesel, having rallied much harder than oil, as the war between Russia and Ukraine has also contributed to tighter energy markets following attacks on refineries.

That’s heaping cost pressure onto drivers, truckers and farmers, as well as overall industry, and leaks into inflationary impacts for the 'average joe' far quicker.

The margin for making diesel from crude oil in the US has topped $100 a barrel, setting all-time highs. In Europe, gasoil futures have more than doubled this year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 10:41

Fuel Rationing Reaches Moscow Amid 'Second Wave' National Shortages

Already Russia has been subject to many months of a ramped-up long-range drone campaign out of Ukraine, chiefly targeting oil refineries as well as industrial sites - and most recently expanding to online retail companies and attacks on private sector businesses. 

Tuesday saw one of the single biggest drone waves on Moscow of the war, for example, with at least 600 sent against against the capital region, resulting in widespread panic and some casualties. Making matters worse for the Russian population, several gas station networks have introduced new restrictions on fuel sales - which is a rarity for the capital.

Getty Images

Gazprom Neft as well as Tatneft have confirmed via representatives and their customer service lines that limits have now been placed on petrol sales at Moscow filling stations.

Long lines of cars have been observed at filling stations in and around the capital city, with Reuters detailing the following:

• A customer hotline ​operator at ​Gazprom Neft said gasoline and diesel ​sales at the company's automated ‌filling stations in Moscow were limited to 40 litres [10 gallons] per customer.
• At Gazprom Neft's other filling stations, diesel sales remain unrestricted, while gasoline purchases are capped at 60 litres per vehicle.
• Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, said gasoline sales at all its filling stations across Russia ‌were limited to 30 litres per vehicle [about 8 gallons], ​while diesel sales faced no restrictions.

These companies have also been warning customers to be prepared for longer waiting times for fill-up due to heightened demand.

One reason being offered by Russian energy giants for the delays is "unscheduled refinery maintenance" - which is a vague but obvious reference to damage left in the wake of Ukraine's constant drone attacks on the nation's oil and refining infrastructure.

As for the latest attacks, on Wednesday it's being widely reported that Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery and a residential building in the republic of Bashkortostan, regional head Radiy Khabirov also confirmed.

The incident once again demonstrates the very far reach of Ukrainian drones, given that Bashkortostan is fairly remote from the Ukraine border, lying north of Kazakhstan.

Frustration returns at the pumps...

Russia’s fuel crisis is back—and so are the queues.

Recent videos show drivers waiting for petrol across Moscow and multiple Russian regions. In some places, frustration is spilling into fights at the pumps. 🧵

(Video: @ASTRA_PRESS) pic.twitter.com/6i06lHrAiY

— New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST Centre) (@nestcentreorg) August 17, 2026

"We're currently assessing the damage, but preliminary reports indicate that a unit undergoing maintenance was hit. As always, falling debris damages pipes, so there’s minor damage," Khabirov told TASS. "I expect everything will be repaired in a couple of days," the official added.

Starting late last week, Russian officials began openly acknowledging a renewed fuel shortage crisis. Oil companies are "taking the necessary measures to increase deliveries to the most vulnerable regions," a somewhat rare Kremlin statement said at the time. This current crisis has been deemed the 'second wave' fuel shortage to hit Russia.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 10:20

SK Hynix Unleashes South Korea's Biggest-Ever 'Buyback Bazooka' To Halt Stock Rout

Asian equities fell sharply overnight as the regional semiconductor rout intensified following another downdraft in US chipmakers on Tuesday (read morning wrap). Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan led the regional declines, while Chinese stocks also weakened despite the blockbuster IPO of humanoid robotics maker Unitree.

Against that bearish backdrop, SK Hynix announced the largest share buyback in South Korean history, a highly aggressive attempt to arrest a six-week selloff that has erased roughly half of its market value. The scale of the buyback shows just how concerned management is that the drawdown has become disconnected from the company's fundamentals and underscores its desire to put a floor under the stock.

Nikkei Asia reports that SK Hynix's stock buyback program totals a staggering 40 trillion won, or $28.6 billion, and will involve purchasing 24.1 million treasury shares in the open market from Thursday through Nov. 19 to improve shareholder value.

"The decision stems from the assessment that the company's intrinsic value -- underpinned by its business competitiveness, robust cash generation capability, and mid-to-long-term growth potential -- is not fully reflected in its current stock price," SK Hynix said in a statement. The company noted that progress toward its financial health targets remains on track, affirming its "commitment to maintaining a stable financial structure while delivering sustained shareholder value."

SK Hynix's announcement followed a nearly 10% drop in the stock during overnight trading in South Korea, as rising bond yields, persistent inflation, and the deepening US-Iran crisis sparked a broader move out of semi stocks. Samsung Electronics also tumbled nearly 8%, while South Korea's main equity index, the Kospi, fell 5.8%.

Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne warned clients on Monday that rising energy prices and an elevated rate environment, especially in the US, have sparked a rotation out of semiconductor stocks and into high-quality energy and materials stocks (read report).

Here's more color on SK Hynix's buyback program from the Japanese outlet:

SK Hynix said the buyback program marks the largest treasury share cancellation ever conducted by a South Korean-listed company. The Lee Jae Myung government encouraged listed companies to buy back and cancel treasury shares to address the so-called Korea discount, in which investors have historically undervalued the country's stocks due to poor corporate governance and low shareholder return.

Macquarie analyst Daniel Kim provided clients this morning with why the buyback program is very important: 

Why it matters

• More to come. Won40tr might be short of the market’s high and hasty expectations. However, we still think that this is just the beginning. We calculate the remainder to be returned to shareholders to be Won243tr in case of 50% FCF and Won358tr in case of 70% FCF. This is equivalent to 22% and 33% of its market cap, respectively.
• Optimal capital structure. We estimate its net cash position to mushroom from Won69tr in 2Q26 to Won192tr in 2026-end and to Won523tr (50% of its market cap) in 2027. This would be way higher than the level of cash on hand the company wants to keep to cover 2 years’ capex, or over Won120tr.
• Additional ADR issuance. Assuming SK Hynix issues the same 24.07mn shares, or 240.7mn ADR (10 ADR to 1 underlying), the company can bring in Won59tr proceeds due to a 47% ADR price premium, resulting in even higher net cash balance. In other words, its cash balance should continue to swell, and we think its war chest should be strong enough to return even 100% of FCF like its US peers.
• Likely a big increase in cash dividend. We expect Hynix to increase cash dividend substantially from 2026. This should be positive for SK Square (402340 KS, Outperform), which owns 20% stake in SK Hynix. Hynix increased capital surplus by Won4tr in 1Q26, which could be paid as tax-free cash dividend for 2026. Thanks to ADR issuance, Hynix now has more room to raise capital surplus and accordingly is able to increase tax-free 2027 cash dividend.
• Upside to 50% of FCF. Management alludes the upside to the current 50% FCF rule and the mix of capital return could be skewed to share buybacks versus cash dividend. Different from its local peer, SK Hynix will not count the spending on M&A in FCF calculation.

What now

• SK Hynix, in our view, is in oversold territory, considering strong earnings momentum, continued shareholder value enhancement. Outperform.

SK Hynix's shares in Korea are down 45% on the year. US ADRs are up 6% in early trading. 

SK Hynix accounted for 21.43% of the Kospi's market capitalization at Tuesday's close, making it the index's second-largest constituent, behind Samsung Electronics at 27.71%.

Any reversal in SK Hynix could help stabilize the broader equity index...

... and are about to blow up all over again https://t.co/vU9i4jXYXk

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 19, 2026 Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 10:00

DOE Cancels 3 National Transmission Corridors, Citing "Green New Scam"

By Diana DiGangi of UtilityDive

Summary

• The U.S. Department of Energy will not move forward with the designation of three proposed National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors that the Biden administration selected for review in 2024, saying in a Wednesday release that the corridors were selected as a “means to advance” that administration’s “Green New Scam agenda.”

• “Transmission policy must serve the American people,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in the release, “not special interests or a climate-alarmist agenda that drives up costs, worsens reliability, and disregards the concerns of local communities.”

• DOE’s release alleged that the “current designation framework proved ineffective in strengthening grid reliability and reducing electricity costs. In some communities, it also contributed to confusion and concern about the scope and intent of NIETC authority.”

The three cancelled corridors are the Lake Erie–Canada Corridor, the Southwestern Grid Connector Corridor and the Tribal Energy Access Corridor.

The DOE’s webpage about the NIETC process no longer includes details about the three projects. A cached version, from March 2026, said that the three proposed corridors would serve various purposes, including providing needed resource adequacy support to the PJM Interconnection, providing “cross-interconnection and interregional connections” between the Southwest Power Pool and WestConnect regions, and facilitating Tribal energy and economic development “by addressing a lack of extra high-voltage transmission.”

According to the current DOE webpage, a NIETC designation can unlock federal financing tools, “specifically public-private partnerships,” as well as allow the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to “issue permits for the siting of transmission lines within the NIETC under circumstances where state siting authorities do not have authority to site the line, have not acted on an application for over one year, or have denied an application.”

DOE said a NIETC is an area of the country where the agency has “determined the lack of adequate transmission harms consumers and that the development of new transmission would advance important national interests in that area, such as increased reliability and reduced consumer costs.”

Cattle producer-only trade association R-CALF USA praised DOE’s decision, as it had raised concerns in 2024 about the siting of the corridors for their potential to “disrupt independent livestock operations or result in the loss of essential grazing and haying lands.” Other groups, including the Environmental Defense Fund and Clean Air Task Force, criticized the cancellation and said DOE is turning down an opportunity to strengthen the grid.

The cancelled corridors were selected to “help address areas with significant transmission congestion,” CATF said in a release. “Transmission congestion increases costs and reduces reliability for ratepayers.”

“If the goal is affordable, reliable, and secure electricity, we should be making it easier to build the infrastructure the grid needs — not dismantling federal frameworks designed to facilitate it,” said Nicole Pavia, CATF’s Director of Clean Energy Infrastructure Deployment.

EDF noted that while Wright said the current designation framework had “proved ineffective,” DOE’s National Transmission Needs Study from July said that NIETC designation “enables DOE and FERC to use valuable federal financing and permitting tools to spur construction or modification of transmission facilities within a NIETC.” The National Transmission Needs Study is a triennial report, the findings of which form the basis for NIETC designations, according to DOE.

DOE’s release said the Trump administration has taken other steps to build new transmission infrastructure and modernize existing infrastructure, citing several billion-dollar loans made by its Office of Energy Dominance Financing to build, rebuild and reconductor transmission lines.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 09:30

Another AI Reacharound? Marvell Shares Rip On Chips-For-Warrants Deal With Google

The circular financing circus rolls on...

Marvell shares are soaring this morning after fabless chip designer announced an expanded chip-development partnership with Google that includes a warrant from Marvell allowing the search giant to buy as much as $12.2 billion in shares.

The two firms will collaborate on custom AI chips.

"The expanded partnership spans a comprehensive range of custom silicon programs that attach to the TPU ecosystem, including AI inference accelerators, storage controllers, network interface controllers, memory interface controllers, and near-memory compute," Marvell said in the filing.

And what does Marvell get for supplying all that?

An 'investment'... of sorts...

Google may purchase as many as 58,970,907 Marvell shares at a price of $206.58 apiece, Marvell said Wednesday in a regulatory filing.

Nearly 1.4 million of the shares vest in equal quarterly installments during the first year following the execution of the warrant, according to the filing.

The remaining shares vest based on “discretionary purchases” from Marvell’s third quarter of fiscal 2027 through the end of its fiscal 2033, with one tranche vesting for each $500 million in revenue stemming from the products the companies have developed together.

Investors are reacting positively to the strategic validation of Marvell’s custom ASIC and data center platform with MRVL up over 12% in the pre-market...

While the warrant introduces long-term potential share dilution, retail and institutional investors are prioritizing the revenue visibility created by deep integration into Google’s hyperscale AI infrastructure.

The agreement reinforces Marvell role as a key custom silicon partner for hyperscalers and the spin is that tying Google’s equity vesting directly to incremental $500 million revenue milestones aligns both companies toward massive long-term commercial scale (provides strong multi-year revenue visibility through fiscal 2033, offsetting near-term dilution concerns with guaranteed ecosystem demand.)

While this is true, the reality is, of course, that this is an off balance sheet (no liquidity required) way to lock in chip supply (a giant buy now pay later scheme).

Shares of Broadcom (AVGO), which is known for being a major partner on Google's TPU efforts, are down 3% in the pre-market.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 09:03

Futures Flat With All Eyes On Interest Rates And Oil

Futures are flat but off their lows as Tech gets a boost from a huge Hynix buyback, which erased ~8% decline to trade up as much as 2% and reversed a 5.8% drop in the Nikkei; the ADRs are +5.6% pre-mkt boosting both Memory and Korea ETFs. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are fractionally in the green, with Nasdaq futures down 0.1% even as momentum looks to retrace some of yesterday’s losses. In premarket trading, Semis, Memory, and Mag7 are higher with Software and Low Profitable Tech weaker. Cyclicals and Defensives are both mixed as the market has not yet decided on direction. Bond yields are flat to down 1bp, following from yesterday with USD weaker. Commodities are bid with all 3 complexes moving higher. Brent crude rose 0.8% and briefly topped $92 barrel for the first time since July with little evidence of progress toward a resolution of the US-Iran war. Today’s macro focus is on the 20Y bond auction, which is likely to need a concession, and on the Fed Minutes where investors seek clarity on the Fed’s reaction function in a tape that lacks significant catalysts. NVDA and Jackson Hole loom large.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Amazon +0.2%, Nvidia +0.2%, Meta +0.1%, Microsoft -0.5%, Apple 0.0%, Tesla -0.2%, Alphabet -0.5%)

• Estée Lauder (EL) climbs 7% after posting quarterly results that beat estimates. The company ended a run of three straight declines in annual revenue, a sign the beauty conglomerate’s turnaround efforts are gaining momentum.
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) sinks 16% after the home-furniture maker gave a weaker than expected sales forecast for the current quarter.
• Mercury Systems (MRCY) falls 9% after the maker of display systems used in combat vehicles posted fiscal fourth quarter adj. EPS that came in a penny shy of expectations.
• Moderna (MRNA) soars as much as 100% after the company and Merck said their personalized cancer vaccine helped cut the recurrence of melanoma in a large, late-stage trial. Shares of Merck (MRK) are up 8%.
• Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) rises 2% as the company and Union Pacific Corp. can move forward with plans to create the nation’s first coast-to-coast freight network after a federal regulator decided to resume consideration of their joint application.
• SK Hynix ADRs (SKHY) rise 3% after the South Korean memory-chip maker said it plans to buy back $29 billion of its own shares, in a bid to assuage investors concerns about AI spending durability.
• Target (TGT) slips 1% despite the retailer’s comparable sales and adjusted EPS topping expectations, while also getting a boost from tariff refunds. Shares have climbed 56% this year through Tuesday’s close.
• WhiteFiber (WYFI) falls 22% after the artificial intelligence infrastructure firm announced its intention to offer $250 million of convertible senior notes due 2032 in a private placement.

In other corporate news Novo Nordisk is testing small doses of its blockbuster Wegovy pill in a new study that will help establish how low patients can go in their dose and still lose weight. Anthropic plans to give Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei and other co-founders shares with extra voting power as the firm prepares to make its Wall Street debut, The Information reported. Cerebras Systems introduced a new speedier computer built with the company’s chips, saying the device will give it a wider advantage over Nvidia equipment. 

Fairly benign price action in early trading contrasts with Tuesday’s cash session, when stocks struggled for direction and long-dated bonds remained under pressure as higher oil prices kept traders cautious following days of yields at multiyear highs. As noted above, tech got a boost from Hynix buyback, announced just moments after the Kospi closed to get the biggest bang for the lack of liquidity buck, which erased a 8% plunge to trade up as much as 2%; the ADRs are +5.6% pre-mkt boosting both Memory and Korea ETFs. Moderna Inc. surged more than 100% after a positive result from its personalized cancer vaccine trial with Merck & Co. Momentum looks to retrace some of yesterday’s losses even as brent crude rose 0.8% and briefly topped $92 barrel for the first time since July with little evidence of progress toward a resolution of the US-Iran war. 

Longer-term bonds trimmed early gains as Brent approached $92 a barrel. The yield on 30-year Treasuries hovered around 5.27%, while rates for most European counterparts were little changed. Investors remained on guard as concerns over major governments’ loose fiscal policy and heavy borrowing by the biggest spenders on artificial intelligence are expected to keep yields elevated. The threat of sticky inflation also lingered as the US-Iran conflict continued to curb oil flows from the Middle East.

"The question is no longer whether higher yields matter, they clearly do, but whether the strength of earnings and capital expenditure implies that the economy can absorb them,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. On the other hand, the weakness in tech may be a sign that rising bond yields are starting to keep stock prices in check, he said.

The impact of growing demand for cash among AI hyperscalers was on display as Alphabet paid just under 7% to borrow longer-dated funds in its debut Australian bond offering, the company’s highest-ever yield on a note. The generous rate means some investors could be lured into buying bonds from tech titans rather than their stocks, according to Stephan Kemper, chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany.

“AI stocks are increasingly in competition with their own bonds,” he said. “Yields close to multiyear highs in combination with a higher visibility of expected cash flows are making a compelling case for many investors.”

Meanwhile, as we have noted extensively, the lack of a clear path to a resolution in the Middle East is putting upward pressure on oil prices. Regional tensions intensified as the United Arab Emirates said it was cutting all economic ties with Iran after accusing the Islamic Republic of firing ballistic missiles at its territory.

Elsewhere, the Trump administration delayed 50% tariffs on Canadian products for three days, citing a tentative agreement to resolve a trade dispute. Trump is said to have chosen White House policy aide Heidi Overton to lead the FDA.

In politics, Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon stormed to a surprise win in Florida’s US Senate primary against the man who concocted the Russia collusion hoax, Alex Vindman. Democrat Mary Peltola and incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan will advance in Alaska’s Senate primary, setting the state up to be one of the most fiercely contested races in November that could determine control of the US Senate.

Today, top of traders’ minds are a plethora of retail earnings, Fed minutes and the ongoing investor focus on AI. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, due later on Wednesday, may offer investors a better sense of the degree to which officials were losing patience with high inflation. Policymakers voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged. Money markets currently price around a 50% chance of a hike in October, with the odds of such a move rising to around 90% for December.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was little changed at 651.82, snapping a five-day stretch of losses after a tech-led selloff in Asia failed to carry over. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• FLSmidth shares gained as much as 10%, hitting their highest level since April, after the mining-equipment maker delivered earnings comfortably ahead of expectations
• Geberit rose as much as 8.6%, the most since November 2023, following second-quarter results which ZKB says showed “surprisingly strong” revenue momentum
• Ambea gained as much as 13%, the most since November 2024 and to a record high, after the Swedish healthcare group’s earnings beat estimates
• Implenia rose as much as 9.4%, the most since early March, as ZKB says the construction, civil and underground engineering services company’s results “turned out slightly better” than expected
• Sensirion shares rose as much as 8% after the Swiss sensor technology company raised its full-year guidance and drew analyst praise for its results
• Oxford Nanopore shares rose as much as 7.8%, the most in two months, after the British DNA-sequencing company reported a narrower adjusted Ebitda loss for the first half
• Ithaca Energy shares jumped as much as 7.4%, hitting a three-month high, after the oil and gas company delivered record quarterly production and raised its dividend guidance
• Straumann dropped as much as 9.1%, the most in a year, after the Swiss dental implant maker said Christopher Norbye would replace Guillaume Daniellot as CEO. Analysts at Bernstein and JPMorgan said Daniellot was “well-liked”
• Trainline shares fell as much as 17%, the most in five years, after the UK competition watchdog opened an investigation into whether the rail-booking platform breached consumer law through “drip pricing”
• Carlsberg shares fell as much as 4.1%, the most in five months, after the Danish brewer’s first-half volumes disappointed
• Smith & Nephew shares dropped as much as 3.8% to the lowest intraday level since May 12 after the medical devices maker said Chief Financial Officer John Rogers will leave his position at the end of next month
• BKW shares fell as much as 4.6% after the power company’s first-half Ebit dropped by a more-than-expected 15%

Asian stocks slumped, led by a selloff in chipmakers, as elevated bond yields and a stalemate in US-Iran peace talks kept investors cautious. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.3%, the most in three weeks, with chip heavyweights Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC among the biggest drags. Most major markets were in the red, with Korea’s Kospi sliding 5.8% and Japan’s Nikkei losing 3.2%. A Bloomberg gauge of Asian semiconductor stocks tumbled 3.7%. US-listed shares of SK Hynix climbed in pre-market trading after the firm unveiled plans to buy back 40 trillion won ($29 billion) of stock and return more of its profits to shareholders in an effort to calm worries about the durability of AI spending.

A number of consumer-focused reports due before the market opens include Target, Lowe’s, TJX and Estee Lauder. Placer.ai, directionally accurate in seven of prior eight periods, estimates Target’s adjusted revenue grew 4% year-on-year in fiscal second quarter, while Bloomberg Second Measure notes that observed sales through end July are tracking above industry growth rate. Earnings from Analog Devices are also on deck.

In rates, treasuries rose, giving bond investors some respite after a sharp rise in yields that began last Friday. 10-year Treasury yields fell about 2bp to 4.68%.Long-dated bonds lagged the rest of the curve; 30-year yields were little changed at 5.28%. Front and belly of the curve slightly is richer on the day with long-end lagging ahead of a $16 billion 20-year bond auction which remains on course to be offered at the highest yield since the sector was reintroduced back in May 2020. Gilts outperform in Europe as traders pared BOE tightening bets after UK headline CPI matched estimates. UK 10-year borrowing costs fall 2 bps to 5.07%. Bunds lag following a €3.769b 10-year auction at an average yield at highest level since 2011. Treasury auctions resume with $16 billion 20-year bonds, before a $8 billion 30-year TIPS sale on Thursday. The WI 20-year at around 5.27% sits ~11bp cheaper than the July stop-out and remains around 2.5bp cheaper than the October 2023 yield stop-out. IG dollar issuance slate includes an ADB 10-year benchmark offering. Three issuers priced $6.4 billion on Tuesday after at least seven issuers decided to stand down from announcing deals.

In commodities, WTI futures higher by around 1%, adding to underperformance of bunds vs. Treasuries, rising to highest levels in almost three weeks as a spat between the United Arab Emirates and Iran heightened regional tensions.

“Some of the recovery came from equities finally reacting to the level of yields, some likely from short-covering, and some from the market taking profit on what is now looking like a very crowded steepener,” said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, multi-asset strategist at Mizuho. Money markets price a 35% chance of a September Fed hike and 23bps of tightening by year-end.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% as traders continued to pare bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of minutes from the last policy meeting. The yen is the strongest of the G-10 currencies, rising 0.3% against the greenback. The Aussie dollar underperforms. The Canadian dollar climbed against most of its Group-of-10 peers after US President Donald Trump delayed 50% tariffs for three days pending the finalization of a trade deal. USD/CAD dropped as much as 0.2% to 1.3872. In a social media post, President Donald Trump said he’s pausing the tariffs “based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL!”. “The durability of CAD gains will depend on whether a formal agreement is reached within the three-day window,” Kristina Clifton, a senior strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia wrote in a note to clients.

Today's US economic data calendar includes FOMC minutes release from the July 29 meeting at 2pm New York. No Fed speakers scheduled for the session. earnings releases include Target, Lowe’s, and TJX

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are piling up without an American military response, raising the risks of crossing the strategic waterway and frustrating some Arab allies who worry the U.S. doesn’t have a strategy to wind down the conflict. WSJ
• Iran has weighed attacking US military targets in Europe should Donald Trump escalate the war, according to people close to the regime, as Tehran considers its options to increase the stakes of the conflict. FT
• The UAE said it was cutting all economic ties with Tehran after accusing Iran of firing ballistic missiles at its territory. Oil rose with no signs of a peace deal. BBG
• Even as Iran projects resilience in the war with the United States, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment by Donald Trump could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy. RTRS
• President Trump said he would pause a 50% tariff on certain goods from Canada for three days while the two countries seek to finalize an agreement. “I have paused the 50% Tariffs against Canada, that were scheduled to kick in tomorrow morning for a three-day period, based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL!” Trump said on social media Tuesday night. WSJ
• China will expand the use of a $1.6 trillion fund to boost housing-related spending, including renovations, under revised regulations taking effect next month. BBG
• SK Hynix will buy back and cancel 40 trillion won ($28.61 billion) of treasury shares and allocate ‌more than 50% of free cash flow generated between 2025 and 2027 to boost shareholder returns, it said on Wednesday. The chipmaker's shares plunged nearly 10% on Wednesday before trimming some losses in post-market trading. The shares hit record highs in June but have since declined, partly on investor concern over the durability of AI spending by U.S. technology companies. RTRS
• Target lifted its guidance after results outpaced estimates. Shares initially rose premarket before sliding around 4%, a sign that investors were expecting even stronger results. BBG
• Big pharma is increasingly licensing drugs developed in China. For US drugmakers, the expanding tie-ups means lower costs and more access to breakthrough treatments. For critics in Washington, the deals spell risk. BBG
• Global stocks are meaningfully net bought so far in August, driven almost entirely by US equities which have been net bought for three straight weeks. Notably, on a trailing 3-week basis in % terms, the recent buying in US equities is the largest since March 2020 and second largest in the past decade. Goldman Prime Brokerage 

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower following the tech-led declines stateside, as yields remained elevated and oil continued to edge higher amid the ongoing geopolitical stalemate. ASX 200 retreated amid a deluge of earnings and with RBA Deputy Governor Hauser sticking to the hawkish script, while Australian wage data matched estimates and spurred little reaction. Nikkei 225 failed to benefit from stronger-than-expected Machinery Orders data and was pressured by the tech weakness, despite yields pulling back from multi-decade highs. KOSPI underperformed amid pressure in the tech heavyweights, while sentiment was also not helped by strained US-South Korea ties after US President Trump reduced the joint drills with South Korea and is said to be pushing for a meeting with North Korean leader Kim as soon as this fall. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were ultimately mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark kept afloat as participants digested earnings releases including from Baidu and Xiaomi, while the mainland conformed to the broad downbeat mood with notable losses seen in the ChiNext Nasdaq-style board.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Ministry of Defence is reportedly to request JPY 8.9tln spend in budget request, Nikkei reported.
• Japanese Machinery Orders (Jun MM) 9.7% vs. Exp. 7.8% (Prev. -12.4%).
• Japanese Machinery Orders (Jun YY) 16.9% vs. Exp. 10.8% (Prev. -1.9%).

European bourses are broadly lower, following on from the risk-off tone overnight as Asian chipmakers were weighed by the weakness stateside. Switzerland's SMI outperforms, supported by Geberit, after it reported strong results. Sectors point to a mixed picture. Construction outperforms, with Energy and Retail rounding out the top 3 sectors. To the downside is Media, followed by Banks and Food, Beverages & Tobacco. The latter has been pressured by post-earning losses in Carlsberg (-3.7%) after its H1 EBIT missed consensus.

Top European News

• UK PM Burnham said No. 10 North will take over responsibility for economic growth from the Treasury as part of a transfer of power, according to The Times.

FX

• Focus on yields remain with the USD weaker against most G10 peers today as bonds stabilise around recent lows; the oil story is similar, Brent remaining above USD 90/bbl. Action this morning has been isolated to FX, USD weakness emerging against all peers without a clear driver, EUR/USD rising back above 1.16 while Cable breached 1.3550, DXY below 99.50, familiar levels in recent sessions. The summer conditions likely a factor in the news-absent moves, especially ahead of risk events 1) FOMC minutes, and 2) 20yr auction, both of which have increased focus amid 1) the lack of Fed Chair Warsh’s communication, 2) recent weakness in the long end and it being potentially the most expensive for the Treasury in 25 years. Ahead of this, STIRS are steady with the market assigning a c. 30% probability of Fed tightening in September.
• No major GBP move to UK CPI, which, in short, continues the narrative that the BoE is comfortable at 3.75% with data continuing to not surprise vs. market and BoE’s July MPR forecasts. The headline rise reflects the Ofgem price cap introduced this month, a point which was partially offset by a decent moderation in food inflation. Services moderated as expected, while ING notes the BoE's core services measure of inflation has picked up a little to 3.8% Y/Y, which, while hotter, shouldn't be too much to encourage those on the fence for tightening. In conjunction with the soft LFS on Tuesday, both show sufficient evidence to keep the BoE on hold for the rest of the year, with risks tilted both ways.
• JPY is the G10 outperformer, benefitting from a softer Buck as the pair looks to return towards 159.00 after nearing 160.00 in the previous few sessions. Macro catalysts were light, though strength seen in KRW could have given a helping hand also. USD/JPY marked a session low of 159.05, a little off this level at the time of writing.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mixed this morning, though yields ultimately remain near recent multi-year highs as concerns surrounding geopolitical/fiscal remain. Price action today has been fairly rangebound given the lack of pertinent newsflow. The geopolitical environment remains tense, with President Trump continuing to threaten Iran; recent Iranian sources have rejected the White House’s claim that there have been direct negotiations between Iran and the US.
• USTs (+2 ticks) currently holds towards the upper end of a 108-16 to 108-23 range. The docket is lacking for the remainder of the day, aside from the FOMC Minutes. It will be eyed to gauge hawkish sentiment among the wider FOMC, with markets currently leaning towards a hold in September. However, given recent soft US data, the Minutes could be looked through.
• Bunds (-10 ticks) are slightly lower this morning. EZ HICP Final metrics were unrevised, spurring little move. Thereafter, a poor German auction (high retention), also spurred little action in primary markets. The subdued outing is likely due to the ongoing summer lull, and as European banks taper their bond purchases as they approach their minimum reserve holdings.
• Gilts (+6 ticks) are outperforming this morning, taking lead from the region’s inflation report. Headline inflation rose from the prior (in-line with expectations), but much of the acceleration was attributed to Ofgem’s utility price hike. Dovish factors stem from a decent moderation in food inflation and cooling Services inflation (though mainly due to low air fares reading). Overall, the report will do little to shift the BoE away from its holding policy; ING expects the Bank to keep rates on hold for the remainder of the year, before delivering cuts in Spring 2027.
• Germany sells EUR 3.769bln vs exp. 6bln 3.00% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.15x (prev. 1.10x), average yield 3.26% (prev. 3.13%), retention 37.2% (prev. 25.05%).

Commodities

• WTI and Brent October futures are higher for a fourth trading day, with Brent rising towards USD 92/bbl (vs low and WTI near USD 85/bbl (USD 84.36/bbl), as the US-Iran conflict showed no sign of resolution. Furthermore, weekly API data yesterday reported a modest draw in crude stockpiles. Elsewhere in energy, Dutch TTF is modestly softer and around an intraday low after gradually fading from levels above EUR 64.50/MWh to lows just above EUR 63/MWh. In shipping, China’s seaborne crude imports averaged around 6.8mln bpd in Aug 1-15 , vs ~7.3mln bpd in the same period in July, according to Vortexa. Tanker arrivals point to a pickup in the second half of August, though smaller than initially expected, leaving Chinese seaborne buying below pre-war levels for now.
• Precious metals are mixed and within tight ranges. Spot gold remains under its 100 DMA (USD 4,381/oz) in a narrow USD 4,325-4,363/oz range vs yesterday’s USD 4,329-4,436/oz range. Spot silver is conversely subdued in a USD 62.54-64.33/oz range after dipping under yesterday’s USD 66.56/oz low. Gold edged higher as easing US bond selling reduced pressure after Tuesday’s decline, though analysts note that uncertainty over US-Iran relations and higher energy-led inflation remain potential headwinds.
• Copper eased this morning towards the lower end of a tight USD 13,887-13,990/t. Reports note that the backwardation between immediate and three-month delivery eased to USD 248/ton (vs as much as USD 545 on Monday). Bloomberg notes that LME copper inventories available to buyers rose by more than 20,000 tons on Tuesday, the largest single-day jump since April, easing a historic supply squeeze; Trafigura was behind a significant share of the deliveries.
• US Private Weekly Inventory Data (bbls) Crude -0.3mln (prev. +9.1mln), Gasoline +1.1mln (prev. -1.5mln), Distillate -2.8mln (prev. -0.6mln), Cushing -1.4mln (prev. +0.4mln)
• ADNOC is reportedly aiming to trim the amount of crude sold to Asian customers in August and September, Bloomberg reported citing sources.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump posted "I have paused the 50% tariffs against Canada that was scheduled to kick in tomorrow morning for a three day period, based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to finalization of documents, have reached a DEAL!"
• USTR Greer said the deal with Canada will include comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments and digital trade alignment.
• Canadian PM Carney said the US has agreed to postpone implementation of its 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods under Section 338 of the US Tariff Act of 1930 until the end of August 21st.

Central Banks

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said inflation is too high, adding that monetary policy needs to bring inflation down and needs to reduce demand in the economy. Hauser added that they are not seeing recession, but just a slowdown. Worried about inflation and upside risk to inflation and that if inflation doesn't come down, will have to raise rates again.
• ECB's Rehn said the wage growth and outlook remain moderate, there are no clear signs of second‑round effects and that keeping inflation expectations anchored is essential.
• Indonesia Central Bank leaves rates unchanged at 5.75%, as expected.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US President Trump told top administration envoys to halt their conversations with Iran, according to CNN citing a US official.
• US President Trump is waiting for Iran to cave to his economic pressure, but Tehran may be willing to wait even longer, according to Politico.
• A source close to Iran's negotiating team said there had been no direct Iran-US negotiations and that talks with Oman concerned sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
• Iranian Deputy Chairman of the Parliament's National Security Commission said "A 'new passage' in the Strait of Hormuz, other than the southern route, will soon be announced in the form of a joint statement with Oman."
• Iran's Foreign Minister said the framework of Tehran's foreign policy will be based on a strong Iran, an Iran that is self-confident and in control of the situation.
• Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei dismissed UAE claims that Iran launched missiles, citing false flag operations in warning against 'baseless' accusations.
• Iran has weighed attacking US military targets in Europe if US President Trump escalates the war, according to people close to the regime cited by FT.
• Yemeni Houthis have placed Saudi Aramco and all its facilities, oil tanks, crude transfer pipelines and export ports on their list of targets, Al-Akhbar sources said. The source added that the process of monitoring and tracking Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea is ongoing.
• UAE Foreign Ministry said all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran have been halted until further notice.
• UKMTO has received a report of an incident 40NM southeast of Al Mukha, Yemen. The cargo vessel was unmanned at the time of the incident, however the damage has resulted in a complete constructive loss.
• The Israeli PM Office said Israel and Syria have agreed to maintain the status quo on security matters, which Syria was about to violate by allowing Turkish forces to deploy at an air base near Aleppo.
• Syria's petroleum company said an explosion occurred at the gas export pipeline at the Al-Jabsah gas plant, leading to a halt of pumping through the pipeline

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump is pushing for a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as soon as this fall, according to WSJ citing US officials.
• US-South Korea joint military drills schedule is expected to be cut in half, according to South Korean media. It was later stated by a US Pentagon official that the US military substantially reduces exercise with South Korea and exercises will conclude one week early.
• North Korea denounced US-South Korea military drills and said exercise of its right to self-defence will continue to completely neutralise enemies' military threat.

US Event Calendar

 

DB's Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

Markets had another rough session over the last 24 hours, with equities hit by a sharp selloff in chip stocks, just as several countries’ bond yields hit multi-year highs. To be honest, there was little respite for investors anywhere, and with no sign of any US-Iran talks, oil prices saw a fresh move higher as well. So, it was a bad day for the most part, with the S&P 500 (-0.69%) posting a 3rd consecutive decline, whilst Germany’s 10yr bund yield (+3.7bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.26%. The main exception came from US Treasuries, with the 10yr yield (-1.8bps) falling back a bit. But even that was thanks to a weaker batch of US data, so it was hard to generate a positive narrative wherever you looked.

The bond selloff was the biggest story yesterday, as the relentless rise in yields showed no sign of easing. In part, that’s been driven by longer-term structural forces, including concerns around fiscal deficits and the AI boom. But near-term inflation concerns stepped up a gear yesterday, with 1-year US (+6.3bps) and Euro (+12.0bps) inflation swaps moving higher. That came as Brent crude (+0.17%) edged up to a 3-week high of $91.02/bbl, while European natural gas futures (+3.06%) also hit a 3-year high of €63.65/MWh. So that added to the pressure, particularly for European bonds more exposed to the energy shock. And that trend has continued overnight as well, with Brent crude up another +0.76% this morning to $91.71/bbl.

That backdrop saw yields hit fresh highs around the world, although Europe saw some of the biggest increases. For instance, yields on 10yr bunds (+3.7bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.26%, 10yr OAT yields (+4.7bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.11%, and 10yr BTP yields (+6.0bps) hit a 2-year high of 4.07%. Otherwise, there were similar records at the 30yr horizon, with German 30yr yields (+2.4bps) at a post-2011 high of 3.77%, and France’s 30yr yield (+2.8bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.89%.

The main exception to this pattern yesterday were US Treasury yields, which initially looked set for new highs before falling back. That was thanks to a soft batch of US data, which cast fresh doubt on how rapidly the Fed could hike rates. That included data on housing starts, which fell to an annualised rate of 1.239m in July (vs. 1.345m expected). Meanwhile, industrial production only rose +0.2% in July (vs. +0.3% expected), whilst pending home sales were down -2.3% (vs. unch expected). So with all that now out, the Atlanta Fed cut their GDPNow estimate for Q3 to an annualised pace of +4.0%, down from +4.3% beforehand. And in turn, those releases helped Treasury yields to pull back again, with the 10yr yield (-1.8bps) ultimately closing slightly lower at 4.70%. Another test of demand for long-dated Treasuries will come with today’s 20yr auction, but yields have continued to fall overnight, with the 10yr yield down another -1.6bps this morning to 4.69%.

As all that was going on, there were still no signs of any negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, President Trump said in a post that “There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled” with Iran and that the US “Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect”. Meanwhile, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf said that Hormuz would remain shut until the US meets conditions of the interim deal agreed in June, which include lifting the US blockade, removing oil sanctions, and unfreezing Iranian assets. So that led to growing pessimism that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen anytime soon, and we saw oil prices move up throughout the futures curve. In fact, the 12-month Brent future (+0.38%) hit a 2-month high of $78.31/bbl, with fears about a protracted period of high oil prices adding to the pressure on bonds yesterday.

For equities, the stagflationary backdrop meant it was another difficult session, with fresh declines on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, that saw the S&P 500 (-0.69%) lose ground for a third consecutive session, with chip stocks as the biggest driver of the declines. In fact, the Philly semiconductor index (-4.98%) had its worst day of August so far. The NASDAQ (-1.33%) also underperformed, while the Mag-7 (-0.88%) was led lower by Meta (-4.42%). But the weakness was also broad-based, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 down -0.45%. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.69%) posted a 5th consecutive decline for the first time in 2026 so far, alongside losses for the DAX (-0.80%) and the CAC 40 (-0.82%) as well.

Overnight in Asia, there’s been a similar theme, with the selloff in chip stocks contributing to sizeable losses for the major indices. South Korea’s KOSPI (-5.44%) has seen the biggest declines this morning, but there’s also been sharp moves for the Nikkei (-2.85%), the CSI 300 (-2.41%) and the Shanghai Comp (-1.96%). The main exception to that pattern has been the Hang Seng (+0.24%), with a modest advance. But equity futures are pointing to further declines today in the US and Europe, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.11%) and the DAX (-0.17%) both moving lower.

In other news overnight, President Trump announced a 3-day pause on the 50% tariffs on Canada that had been scheduled. He said this was “based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL!” We don’t have the full details, but in a White House proclamation, it said that “Canada has expressed a commitment to remove the discriminations or unreasonable and unequal impositions” relating to US alcohol, dairy, and autos. Meanwhile on the Canadian side, Prime Minister Carney didn’t say there’d been a deal, but a statement from him said “Substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done.” The announcement led to a small rally for the Canadian Dollar, which is up +0.13% against the US Dollar this morning.

Otherwise yesterday, UK gilts outperformed their European counterparts after the latest labour market data came in on the dovish side. It showed payrolled employees falling by -13k in July (vs. unch expected), whilst the unemployment rate was at 4.9% in the three months to June (vs. 4.8% expected). Moreover, private sector wage growth (ex bonuses) was only at +2.8% year-on-year in the three months to June, the slowest pace since 2020 during the pandemic. So 10yr gilt yields were only up +2.1bps on the day to 5.08%, a smaller increase than elsewhere.

In Germany, the latest ZEW Survey came in stronger than expected, with the expectations component rising to 34.2 in August (vs. 30.0 expected). That’s the highest level since February, before the Iran conflict began.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the UK CPI release for July. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC’s July meeting and hear from ECB President Lagarde. Finally, earnings releases include Target, Lowe’s, and TJX

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 08:34

Hellish: Ceuta Mothers Weep In Streets; Rapes Force Women To Flee; Kids' Parks Smeared In Shit

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Spanish mothers in Ceuta are in tears on live television. Hospitals are overflowing. Beaches and parks that once hosted families are now open-air camps of garbage, feces and makeshift shacks. And the Civil Guard has confirmed at least 15 rapes since the late-July mass migrant invasion - including a 10-year-old girl allegedly assaulted by three migrant brothers.

Women are packing up and leaving the Spanish enclave. Local residents describe a city abandoned by its own government while Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez remains on vacation.

A mother broke down on live TV this week, describing the daily terror for her teenage daughter.

?WATCH: A mother in Ceuta has broken down in tears on Live TV:

"My 16-year-old daughter has to go everywhere with her father or with me because the migrants devour her. I can't take it anymore. I want them all gone."

The left-wing feminists are silent. pic.twitter.com/3dksNYd9IC

— Inevitable West (@Inevitablewest) August 17, 2026

"My 16-year-old daughter has to go everywhere with her father or with me because the migrants devour her. I can't take it anymore. I want them all gone," she stated.

She added, "I'm not racist - my granddaughter is mixed-race, my best friends are Muslim - but they can't invade us. What's stayed here is the worst of it; there are murderers, rapists, thieves."

This is the reality two weeks after an estimated 70,000-plus migrants poured across from Morocco into a city of roughly 84,000 people. Reception centres collapsed. Thousands - largely young men - stayed behind when many others returned. Beaches became the default settlement.

Locals described the rapid transformation of once-pristine stretches such as Trampolín Beach: "We can't take our kids to the beach, we can't go. They are occupied, they are full of shacks, people are eating there, throwing food, it's full of clothes, feces, urine."

? CEUTA Residents Furious!

Small Kids Can't Go To The Park Anymore, Families Cannot Go To The Beach No More, There's P*ss And Sh*t Everywhere

This is our beautiful Spanish City in Africa, we have to defend it

Residents gathered in front of Ceuta's town hall in anger today for... pic.twitter.com/IVwZg6X3iz

— Active Patriot (@ActivePatriotUK) August 17, 2026

Children's parks across Ceuta have been left covered in human waste by the invaders, even as progressive voices continue claiming everything is under control and "normality" has returned.

Invasores llena de mierda los parques infantiles de Ceuta.

Pero los progres te dicen que todo está controlado y que impera la normalidad. pic.twitter.com/ut3OPKYV3H

— David Santos (@davidsantosvlog) August 18, 2026

Infectious diseases including scabies, tuberculosis and impetigo have surged. Ceuta University Hospital opened an emergency disaster wing. One doctor warned of a "health catastrophe."

Ceuta's basically turned into a full-on slum at this point.

Thousands of illegal migrants are living right on the beach in these rough shacks thrown together from straw and sticks.

Officials are managing cases of tuberculosis, scabies, impetigo, and gastroenteritis, while... pic.twitter.com/eHuEVKivS6

— I Meme Therefore I Am ?? (@ImMeme0) August 16, 2026

A local doctor attempted to speak with the Spanish migration minister Elma Saiz about the scourge of diseases the migrants are spreading, putting Spaniards in danger.

? LA MINISTRA DE SANIDAD NO QUIERE HABLAR CON ESTA DOCTORA

Y luego va la Mema diciendo que en Ceuta no hay colapso sanitario. pic.twitter.com/GZ12nVKqAJ

— Betania (@BetaniaTv) August 16, 2026

Decían que les importaba mucho la pandemia de la COVID-19 y nos obligaban a vacunarnos y llevar mascarillas hasta en exteriores y ahora van camino de provocar una pandemia con la situación de insalubridad que se vive en Ceuta.

Increíble.pic.twitter.com/BR0EbTggNU

— Javier Negre (@javiernegre10) August 16, 2026

Saiz made a speech literally saying that 'diversity is our greatest strength'.

She stated, "I want to highlight the responsibility, civic commitment, and maturity that the citizens are demonstrating. Ceuta is a true example of coexistence. A city in which different cultures, traditions, and faiths coexist. And which has demonstrated over decades that it is one of its greatest strengths."

Elma Saiz reivindica la "pluralidad" y la "diversidad" de Ceuta: "Quiero poner en valor la responsabilidad, el compromiso cívico y la madurez que está demostrando la ciudadanía. Ceuta es un verdadero ejemplo de convivencia. Una ciudad en la que conviven diferentes culturas,... pic.twitter.com/TZ8Kg5DEqg

— RTVE Noticias (@rtvenoticias) August 17, 2026

Another doctor, nearly in tears on television, described every hospital overrun, medicine running out, and staff afraid of being attacked. She said the streets, parks and football fields are filled with migrants and she is afraid to leave her house. Sexual assaults are rising. The Spanish government, she said, has abandoned its own citizens.

A doctor in Ceuta is almost crying on live television.

Every hospital is completely overrun with migrants. Rooms are full. Medicine is running out. They even opened a dedicated hospital for migrants, and that one is full too.

Doctors are afraid to treat them.
They're scared... pic.twitter.com/rcU2qaxViu

— Yossi BenYakar (@YossiBenYakar) August 16, 2026

The Civil Guard has now confirmed 15 rapes since the invasion. The latest reported case involved three migrant brothers allegedly sexually assaulting a 10-year-old girl on Lisboa Street.

Earlier reports detailed multiple underage Moroccan girls and at least one boy treated for sexual assault at the hospital. Many of these minors have been sleeping on the streets.

Two sisters, Yoli and María José, said they left the city with their daughters out of fear.

"What we are going through is very hard and it is very hard to hear journalists justify this Government, justify everything. We can't take it anymore, we feel humiliated, trampled. I have had to take my daughters out of their house because the Government does nothing, because Mr. Pedro Sánchez is on vacation in La Mareta. Nobody cares about us," Yoli told news organisation Cuatro.

Other women described needing escorts just to walk to their front doors, or waking to find a migrant in underwear in their bed after he climbed a balcony.

One resident reported that a BBVA bank branch had to close because security could no longer guarantee customers could withdraw money after a guard was beaten by a large group of migrants while trying to stop the robbery of an elderly woman.

? "A resident of Ceuta reports that they have had to close the BBVA because the security personnel cannot guarantee that customers can withdraw money.

A BBVA security guard was beaten by 40 engineers yesterday when he tried to stop them from robbing an elderly lady."... https://t.co/gy57oLwQIy

— Nature (@TurquoiseOceanB) August 17, 2026

A pregnant woman described families feeling unsafe amid migrant-related fights and called for stronger action from Spain.

?? Ceuta woman on migration tensions.

In a viral video, a pregnant resident says families feel unsafe due to migrant-related fights and calls for stronger action from Spain. Claims unverified. pic.twitter.com/srkC1L2xUz

— Donald Andy (@today__today) August 16, 2026

Residents Pilar and Elena urged government figures to visit Ceuta and see the situation for themselves, stating "We live here, we don't just come for a weekend," while elitist leftists sitting in TV studios in Madrid scoffed at them.

?? Ceuta residents Pilar and Elena are calling on Marta Sanchís to return to the city and see what they are experiencing firsthand.

"We live here, we don't just come for a weekend," they said.
pic.twitter.com/hkwmevMWaF

— NewsForce (@Newsforce) August 17, 2026

Another local resident spoke with visible distress in a street interview, gesturing emphatically as she described the daily fear and loss of normal life for Ceuta families under the ongoing occupation of public spaces.

She notes that she feels she cannot leave the house without pepper spray as she's afraid for her life, adding that the Spanish politician "motherfuckers" have allowed rapists and convicted criminals to invade and roam free.

pic.twitter.com/HZcOWhZxKE

— Victor VS ???? (@victor_vs) August 17, 2026

Ceuta mothers are now demanding the school year be delayed. "I would not let my daughter come to school alone," one said. Another insisted the schools themselves "should be fumigated before any children are allowed back in."

Las madres de Ceuta piden el retraso del inicio escolar:

"Yo no dejaría que mi hija se viniera sola al colegio"

"Los colegios deberían ser fumigados para que los niños puedan entrar" pic.twitter.com/V3x6MZ46Gy

— Pablo Haro Urquízar (@pabloharour) August 18, 2026

This all follows the past weekend's attempt at a second mass crossing. Hundreds of migrants tried to push from Castillejos. Spanish and Moroccan security forces turned them back with tear gas and a heavy deployment. Calls for a new wave on 15 August had circulated widely online.

Nuevo intento masivo en la frontera de Ceuta.

Cientos de migrantes intentan cruzar desde Castillejos y las fuerzas de seguridad lo frenan. pic.twitter.com/duSviz0USh

— Alerta Global (@AlertaGlobal24H) August 16, 2026

Thousands of those who remained from the first wave are now holding mass protests on the beaches, demanding asylum and transfer to mainland Europe. NGOs are reportedly helping produce the signs. There is talk of a hunger strike.

?? Thousands of illegal migrants in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta are holding mass protests demanding asylum and to be sent to mainland Europe. pic.twitter.com/HoAy8Jlt8N

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 17, 2026

VÍDEO: ? Los migrantes siguen manifestándose en la playa del Trampolín: "No comida, asilo", en su segundo día de huelga de hambre reivindicando que no quieren volver a Marruecos pic.twitter.com/wltlumHRHf

— El Pueblo de Ceuta (@ElPueblodeCeuta) August 17, 2026

White liberal women volunteering for the NGOs continue to welcome and assist the new arrivals on the ground in Ceuta, openly supporting the occupation while local mothers flee.

White, liberal, fat, and ugly women welcome Muslim invaders in Ceuta. pic.twitter.com/t6ftTeeE1I

— RadioGenoa (@RadioGenoa) August 18, 2026

? Ceuta Migrant Crisis: These migrants ain't going nowhere, look at the help and handouts they're getting, they're demanding asylum and they will no doubt get it

Only a show of strength by both governments stopped a second wave, but how long will this show of strength last... pic.twitter.com/jUGEStUMVJ

— Active Patriot (@ActivePatriotUK) August 16, 2026

This is Ceuta. Pro-Islam white liberal women are a huge problem. They want to destroy Europe. pic.twitter.com/AgXKJAfcU0

— RadioGenoa (@RadioGenoa) August 18, 2026

What are they claiming asylum from? These are not people fleeing a country shattered by war or natural disaster. Morocco is a stable state that receives millions of tourists every year. The overwhelming majority are economic migrants seeking better opportunities, not refugees.

?? «Las ONG les incitan a la protesta para exigir el asilo. Ellas son las que incluso les están haciendo los carteles. Se habla de posible huelga de hambre si no consiguen el objetivo».

?? «The NGOs are inciting them to protest in order to demand asylum. They're even the ones... pic.twitter.com/CCe1SS1VQs

— Rubén Pulido (@rubnpulido) August 17, 2026

Footage shows new arrivals landing on the sand and immediately chanting "Allahu Akbar."

?Beach day in Ceuta just got a soundtrack no one asked for.

Clandestine arrivals from Morocco land on the sand... and the first words out of their mouths? "Allahu Akbar."

Not "hello."

Not "thank you."

Not "we're seeking safety."

Just the same chant, loud and clear.

If this... pic.twitter.com/KpuZL2MOZt

— The Patriots Voice ??????? ?? (@Proudofthisland) August 17, 2026

Camps of cardboard and plastic continue to expand along the shore, complete with football games and laundry lines on what was Spanish beach.

? Lo que no verás en la tele: así crece el campamento en la playa de Ceuta.
Chabolas de cartón y lonas. Fútbol, baños y espera.
Esto ya no es una crisis humanitaria" de unos días.: es un asentamiento permanente junto a la frontera.
El vídeo muestra otra cosa: un poblado de... pic.twitter.com/k527c5BiNE

— Jesús Vazquez ?????? (@jesusvazquezb) August 16, 2026

? It's only taken 2 weeks for third world immigrants to turn Ceuta into a sh*thole pic.twitter.com/q6N1zwSlL1

— Active Patriot (@ActivePatriotUK) August 16, 2026

Migrants have also set up an improvised mosque on El Trampolín Beach itself.

?? Inmigrantes CREAN una mezquita improvisada en la Playa de El trampolín (Ceuta) pic.twitter.com/VEyvpi0QFI

— Actualidad Noticias (@Actualidad_Pol) August 18, 2026

Throughout the crisis, Spanish government spokesmen and much of the legacy media insisted the migrants had almost all returned to Morocco and that "reasonable normality" had been restored. Left-leaning voices repeated the line.

The reality on the ground - permanent-looking settlements, daily protests for asylum, and residents too afraid to let their daughters outside - shows otherwise.

Ceuta's women are voting with their feet. Families are sending children to the mainland. Parks and beaches that belonged to locals two weeks ago no longer do.

The open-border agenda that turned a Spanish enclave into a third-world camp overnight is being defended by the same voices who claimed the problem had already solved itself.

How many more European cities will be asked to absorb this nightmare before there is meaningful action and change?

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 08:15

Buying Bullsh*t In "4 Easy Payments"

 Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

I have been gently touching on what a horrible idea one sector has been since the inception of this blog. And just this week, it looks like cracks are starting to form in the space via one of its largest and most well-known publicly traded companies.

As savings finally dry up, rates remain higher and auto loan/credit card delinquencies start rising, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a deluge of ugliness from these types of names in their next few quarterly reports.

(Chart: Zero Hedge)

I’ve said how buy now pay later “BNPL” has been a terrible idea since the inception of this blog. More recently, I named BNPL as one of the 10 areas of the market I would avoid heading into 2026.

Strip away the fintech branding, slick apps, venture capital language and the promises of “disrupting” traditional finance, and a large portion of the BNPL business boils down to something that has existed for centuries: lending money to people who don’t have enough money. And in many cases to people who don’t have enough money for a reason (i.e. they aren’t earning enough or can’t find a way to underconsume).

There is nothing particularly revolutionary about lending money at egregious rates to people who don’t have any. But when you start extending tiny amounts of credit so consumers can finance increasingly trivial purchases, whether that’s a burrito, groceries, takeout or other everyday expenses, you aren’t witnessing some great innovation in financial technology. You’re witnessing the last gasp of liquidity breath from a consumer in deep financial stress.

Credit makes sense when it bridges the timing between income and a major productive purchase. Mortgages allow people to buy homes. Business loans finance investment. Auto loans can help people purchase transportation they need to work. But when consumers increasingly need financing for a single solitary order of Large Fries from McDonald’s and other minute daily expenses, the economic signal is completely different.

If someone needs four payments to buy a french fry, the problem isn’t the absence of a sufficiently innovative payment app. The problem is that they’re fu**ing broke.

That’s what has bothered me about the evolution of BNPL. The industry has attempted to present installment payments as a technological revolution. In reality, subprime BNPL increasingly resembles a digitally optimized version of a very old business: payday lending, high risk consumer finance and, taken to its historical extreme, loan sharking.

The technology changes, the underwriting algorithms change, the user interface becomes prettier and the terminology becomes friendlier, but the fundamental economics do not. Someone has money, someone else needs money, and the lender advances the money today with the expectation of being adequately compensated tomorrow. That business has been around approximately…forever.

These businesses can look fantastic during the right portion of the economic cycle. Employment is strong, consumers are spending, asset prices are rising, credit losses remain manageable and investors extrapolate growth into the future. Then monetary conditions tighten. Positive real interest rates begin doing what positive real interest rates are supposed to do. Savings get depleted, refinancing becomes more expensive, credit becomes harder to obtain, monthly debt service burdens accumulate and consumers gradually exhaust the liquidity buffers they built during easier times.

Eventually, something breaks, and the lowest quality borrowers usually break first. That is why subprime credit can be such an important economic indicator. The trouble doesn’t necessarily begin with someone defaulting on a mortgage or declaring bankruptcy. It can begin much earlier. Consumers start financing things that historically would have been purchased with cash. Balances accumulate, payments begin competing with one another, discretionary spending slows, credit losses rise and eventually the consumer runs out of road.

And nowadays, in a nation full of gamblers and not investors…who place bets not just on stock options but on shit like what color tie Donald Trump will wear during a press conference on prediction platforms…people are getting addicted to gambling, running through their cash and desperately sourcing anyone who will lend to them faster than anytime in history. If you think people aren’t taking out loans from SoFi, Upstart and the likes to finance gambling addiction, you haven’t listened to the stories of enough gamblers in recovery.

That brings us to Klarna yesterday. The company’s second quarter 2026 results initially looked good. Revenue rose 27% year over year to approximately $1.04 billion, while the company produced a surprise quarterly profit. The reported numbers beat Wall Street’s expectations. If markets cared only about the rearview mirror, Klarna stock probably would have rallied. Instead, the shares plunged roughly 20%.

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The reason is that markets care about what happens next. Klarna lowered its full year revenue outlook to $4.08 billion to $4.16 billion, compared with its previous forecast above $4.34 billion and analyst expectations around $4.42 billion. The company also reduced expected 2026 gross merchandise volume to $149 billion to $151 billion from more than $155 billion previously. Weak retail conditions in Germany, Klarna’s largest market, and foreign exchange effects were among the factors cited.

Americans are increasingly using BNPL as actual consumer financing, according to Klarna’s latest report. U.S. purchase volume surged 27% year over year, U.S. revenue jumped 37%, and Klarna’s longer-term Fair Financing product grew 82% globally, while interest income hit $266 million for the quarter.

The numbers suggest consumers are increasingly borrowing to fund everyday spending rather than simply using BNPL as a checkout convenience. Once reliance on BNPL becomes a necessity to fund consumption, signaling an increasingly tapped-out consumer, rising defaults are the obvious risk that comes next.

At the same time, Klarna announced leadership changes. CFO Niclas Neglén and CMO David Sandström are expected to leave their positions in early 2027 as the company searches for replacements. So you had the classic combination markets hate: yesterday looked better than expected, while tomorrow suddenly looked worse. The stock got crushed accordingly about -20%.

And I don’t think investors should look at Klarna in isolation. I think they should look at it as another piece of evidence about the condition of the consumer. To be clear, Klarna itself is still growing rapidly. Second quarter revenue increased 27%, gross merchandise volume increased 18% and U.S. GMV reportedly grew 27%. This isn’t a company whose business disappeared overnight. That’s precisely why the guidance matters.

The interesting question isn’t whether BNPL continues growing. The interesting question is why consumers increasingly want it in the first place, and what happens to the economics of the model when those consumers become financially stressed. BNPL works beautifully when the consumer keeps paying. So does virtually every lending business. The real test of a credit model isn’t how rapidly it can originate loans during an expansion. As Seinfeld would say, “Anybody can just originate a reservation…”

It’s what those loans look like after years of elevated prices, depleted savings, expensive money and weakening consumer liquidity. That’s the part of the cycle investors consistently underestimate and dildo analysts on CNBC don’t want to talk about. That is, assuming they know what the business does to begin with…

There is an enormous difference between financing a $2,000 purchase because installment financing is economically convenient and financing a $12 lunch because you don’t have $12.

The app may classify both transactions as BNPL, but I don’t. One is financing. The other can be distress.

I’ve argued that the current equity market has many characteristics of a bubble, and BNPL is only one of the areas that concerns me. Markets have spent years rewarding growth narratives, financial engineering, technological disruption and increasingly aggressive assumptions about what future cash flows will be worth. Meanwhile, underneath the surface, consumers have been absorbing higher prices, higher financing costs and a steadily more restrictive cost of capital. Those two realities cannot diverge indefinitely.

Eventually the economic cycle, rates, liquidity and balance sheets matter. The first cracks rarely arrive with a giant sign announcing that the bubble is over. They appear individually. A weak consumer shows up in one company’s numbers. Credit deterioration appears somewhere else. A company beats quarterly expectations but cuts its outlook. A seemingly unstoppable growth story suddenly discovers that its customers have limits. That is how cycles turn. To quote Ray Dalio’s “How the Economic Machine Works”, the economy is a trillion little bullshit transactions all happening at once, over and over (OK, I paraphrased). Point is, they turn over gradually, one small transaction at a time, like sands passing through an hourglass.

BNPL has been marketed as financial innovation, and parts of the technology undoubtedly are innovative. The distribution is better, the checkout experience is easier, underwriting can be faster and data can improve risk assessment. But none of that repeals the basic laws of credit. If you lend money to financially stretched consumers, eventually some of them cannot repay it. If those consumers become increasingly dependent on credit to finance ordinary consumption, that isn’t necessarily evidence of a booming new financial ecosystem. It may be evidence that household liquidity is deteriorating.

I have warned about subprime lending and BNPL for years. I put BNPL among the 10 areas I wanted to avoid in 2026, and Klarna’s latest report doesn’t change my mind. It reinforces the thesis. When people need debt to buy a Coke Zero, I don’t see financial innovation. I see a warning about the consumer.

Klarna is only one data point, and one quarter doesn’t establish a macroeconomic trend. But combined with the other stresses emerging across the economy and financial markets, I believe it is another signal that the consumer is running out of liquidity. That is one of several reasons I continue to believe the current stock market bubble is approaching its final stage, with the reckoning likely coming in late 2026 or early 2027.

When it does, investors may discover that the newest revolution in consumer finance was built around one of the oldest businesses on Earth: lending money to people who don’t have it.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of all facts and figures included in this article though I made my best effort to get them right. I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, and encourage you to always double check, do your own research and speak to a licensed financial professional.

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As of May 20, 2026 I am attempting to no longer actively trade as much as I once did (read my story here). My eventual goal is for investing/saving to be mostly done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 08:05

Holy Grail In Cancer Treatment? Moderna Erupts After Melanoma Vaccine Late-Stage Trial Success

Moderna's shares soared as much as 83% in premarket trading in New York after its personalized cancer vaccine, developed in collaboration with Merck & Co., reduced the risk of melanoma returning in a large, late-stage trial. The result marks the first positive Phase 3 trial for a personalized cancer vaccine by any company. 

The study met its primary endpoint by showing that the cancer vaccine, called intismeran autogene, combined with Merck's blockbuster immunotherapy Keytruda, improved recurrence-free survival compared with Keytruda alone. The study also met a secondary endpoint by reducing the risk of cancer spreading to other parts of the body.

Professor Georgina Long, the study's principal investigator, medical director of Melanoma Institute Australia, and chair of Melanoma Medical Oncology and Translational Research at the University of Sydney, wrote in a statement:

Today's results represent a landmark moment for adjuvant melanoma treatment. This is the first Phase 3 study to show that intismeran, a treatment designed based on the unique mutational 'fingerprint' of a patient's own tumor, given in combination with pembrolizumab, can reduce the risk of recurrence or death in patients with completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma compared with KEYTRUDA alone.

Intismeran in combination with pembrolizumab has the potential to establish a new treatment paradigm in the adjuvant melanoma setting, helping patients remain cancer-free for longer.

Moderna and Merck did not disclose exact figures showing how much the therapy improved recurrence-free survival. The trial remains ongoing. Additional details will be presented at an upcoming medical meeting, and the vaccine could receive approval as early as 2027, depending on the regulatory review.

As of 0700 ET, Moderna shares were up 60% and trading around $100 per share. Short interest represents 13.5% of the float, equivalent to 49.8 million shares. Merck shares are up 7% in premarket as well. 

Melanoma is the most serious form of skin cancer. About 112,000 people are diagnosed annually in the US, and about 8,500 die from the disease, according to the American Cancer Society.

"Therapeutic vaccines have been something of a holy grail in cancer. People have been trying to do this for, you know, over 100 years in one way or another," Jane Healy, head of oncology early development at Merck, said in an interview with Bloomberg several weeks ago. She noted that one potential benefit of the personalized shot would be to extend survival without significantly increasing side effects.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 07:40

Georgia Man Deported From Fiji Charged Over $165 Million Crypto Ponzi Scheme

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A Georgia man accused of wire fraud and money laundering appeared in a Los Angeles federal court on Monday after being deported by Fijian authorities to face the charges following his flight to the South Pacific island.

A price chart on the Bybit website for the cryptocurrency Ethereum on a computer screen in New York City on Feb. 21, 2025. Patrick Sison/AP Photo

Prosecutors alleged the 59-year-old Edward Zimbardi, of Flowery Branch, Georgia, ran a Ponzi scheme that made more than $165 million from thousands of investors between June 2022 and August 2023.

An attorney for Zimbardi could not be reached.

U.S. Attorney Theodore S. Hertzberg, who described ponzi schemers as "parasites" the day of the Department of Justice announcement, detailed the allegations.

"Zimbardi allegedly tricked thousands of people to invest in his 'Crypto Program' with false promises of enormous returns," Hertzberg said. "Instead, he spent the money on risky currency trades, payments to early investors, and treating himself to a house and expensive vehicles."

When the scam was discovered, he allegedly tried to evade federal prosecution by fleeing to Fiji before he was found by authorities and returned, the prosecutor said.

Marlo Graham, special agent in charge of FBI Atlanta, noted that Zimbardi allegedly preyed on unsuspecting individuals through a complex scheme. FBI Atlanta is seeking victim information to aid the investigation.

"Scammers are trying everything they can to defraud people out of their hard-earned money, but the FBI is doing everything we can to make sure they don't succeed, no matter where they hide," Graham said.

According to the charges and information presented in court, Zimbardi allegedly promoted The Crypto Program through videos and websites, telling potential investors it was a chance to buy advertising packages that would deliver a guaranteed 25 percent monthly return.

Investors were advised to send cryptocurrency to digital wallets, which, prosecutors alleged, were secretly controlled by Zimbardi. Thousands of people sent more than $165 million his way.

Instead of advertising packages, Zimbardi allegedly put more than $34 million into risky foreign currency trades and lost a substantial portion of it. In order to keep the scheme running, he allegedly used money from later investors to pay earlier ones. He also allegedly spent at least $10 million on personal expenses, including a house for his son, luxury vehicles, and alimony payments to his ex-wife.

The program collapsed in August 2023, and victims lost their funds. Zimbardi then traveled to Hawaii, Fiji, and other places.

In July 2025, after learning of the FBI investigation, he fled to Fiji and stayed more than a year. In May, he canceled plans to attend his son's wedding in Virginia, suspecting agents would attempt to arrest him there.

Fijian authorities deported him after learning of the charges in coordination with the FBI and the U.S. Department of State.

A federal grand jury had already indicted Zimbardi on July 8. The indictment charges him with 12 counts of wire fraud, 12 counts of money laundering, and one count of money laundering conspiracy.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 07:20

Unitree IPO Soars 460% As "Strong Retail Appetite" May Ignite Physical AI Listing Boom

Summary:

• Unitree Soars 460% in Shanghai IPO 
• Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index Plunges As IPO "Drew Funds Away" 
• Unitree IPO 5,550 Times Oversubscribed As UBS Says Grey Market Points To 3.5x Open

Unitree Robotics, one of the most closely watched technology IPOs in Shanghai this year, made its trading debut earlier Wednesday and closed up a staggering 460%. The Chinese humanoid robot maker raised 6.1 billion yuan, or about $904 million.

The Hangzhou-based company, formerly known as Yushu Technology Co., climbed as much as 629% from its IPO price of 150.80 yuan before paring some of those gains.

Retail bids for Unitree exceeded the 7.07 trillion yuan raised by memory chip giant CXMT in its July IPO. We pointed out yesterday, hours before the IPO, that the offering was more than 5,500 times oversubscribed.

Unitree plans to use the IPO proceeds to improve AI models, advance humanoid robot research, develop new products, and rapidly expand manufacturing capacity to maintain its lead in the physical AI race and expand market share. 

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma said, "Unitree's debut surge signals strong appetite for China's embodied AI sector," adding that the IPO proceeds should accelerate product development and commercialization. 

Analysts at Industrial Securities commented on the broad market reaction across the space, saying, "Robotics stocks plunged as Unitree Robotics' strong trading debut in Shanghai drew funds away."

The Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index (Bloomberg ticker: SOLCHRBP Index), which tracks publicly traded Chinese companies involved in the humanoid robotics supply chain, dropped 10% following the listing. The index is down 25% this year.

UBS analyst Lucy Zhang pointed out that the listing debuted amid an overall market selloff:

A-share tech names followed the US and broader Asia tech selloff, with the STAR50 down 6% amid elevated bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty.

Market leadership rotated into defensive sectors, including banking, energy and coal.

Retail flows remained heavily concentrated in recent IPO speculation rather than broader market beta, with Unitree (#688836 CH) the focal point, trading around RMB885/share and up 486% from its IPO.

Extreme two-way price action suggests increasingly speculative trading conditions. Half-day turnover reached RMB1.63 trn, while market breadth was extremely weak, with 4,927 decliners vs. 580 advancers.

Coal stocks outperformed as a defensive haven amid the tech pullback, supported by planned coke price increases of RMB50-55 per tonne effective Aug. 20. Robotics names fell 7% as a group, with Unitree's debut triggering a sell-the-news rotation across the sector.

Enthusiasm for Unitree has grown after the robot maker shipped more than 5,500 humanoid robots last year, according to its prospectus. That makes the company the global leader in shipments of humanoid robots, far exceeding any US company. 

JPMorgan analysts have forecast that global shipments of humanoid robots will surge from 18,000 units in 2025 to 60,000 by the end of this year and to 1.75 million by 2030, with China accounting for more than half of global demand.

Readers should not be surprised that China is leading the humanoid-robotics race. We have outlined this trend on multiple occasions (see here).

Unitree IPO 5,550 Times Oversubscribed As UBS Says Grey Market Points To 3.5x Open 

The global market leader in humanoid-robot shipments, China-based Unitree, is set to begin trading on Shanghai's STAR Market on Wednesday, potentially sparking a wave of robotics listings in Asia as the race for physical AI remains in its early innings. 

Unitree New Robot Preview: “Superman” Breaking the Limits of Humanity🥳
Standing high jump 2 m, top speed 12.66 m/s (0.85 m leg length)
Surpassing the standing high jump and running speed records of all humans around the world
This new machine has only been in development for a… pic.twitter.com/12i80ITU6p

— Unitree (@UnitreeRobotics) August 17, 2026

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Hangzhou-based company raised $900 million after pricing its shares at 150.80 yuan apiece, implying a valuation of about $9.1 billion. Retail demand was off the charts, with investors submitting 9.8 million orders and the offering more than 5,500 times oversubscribed. 

"Unitree's IPO is significant because it provides an important A-share valuation benchmark for embodied AI and humanoid robotics," Morningstar analyst Kangyuxiao Li said.

Jacqueline Du, Goldman's head of China Industrial Technology research, recently explained that Unitree is the global market leader in humanoid-robot shipments: 

Global Market Leader: In 2025, Unitree shipped more than 5,500 humanoid robots, capturing a 37% global market share, according to Omdia.

This volume far outstripped Western peers such as Tesla, Figure AI, and Agility Robotics, each of which shipped around 150 humanoid robots in 2025, according to public reports cited by Omdia.

That said, this leadership was achieved during the very early stages of the humanoid-robot industry, where technology is evolving rapidly and the competitive landscape remains fluid.

Wednesday's IPO gives mainland investors direct exposure to one of China's top robotics companies and could pave the way for future listings by its domestic competitors. 

UBS analyst Tony Chalmers noted:

Unitree is set for its first day of trading on the STAR Board on Aug. 19 at a CNY61 bn market cap, or 219x PS, with a free float of only ~30 mn shares, representing 7.4% of total shares. The grey market is pointing to a ~3.5x open.

The pre-IPO perpetual contract on the Hyperliquid platform - not Unitree stock or IPO allocation - is about $99.50 per contract; the market implies a Unitree valuation near $40 billion, based on roughly 404.5 million post-IPO shares. That is more than four times the reported $9.1 billion IPO valuation. 

In markets, the Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index (Bloomberg ticker: SOLCHRBP Index), which tracks publicly traded Chinese companies involved in the humanoid-robotics supply chain, is down 18% year to date.

SOLCHRBP covers robot manufacturers and suppliers of AI systems, actuators, motion controls, sensors, automation equipment, and other components. 

Goldman's Du highlighted how Unitree's pricing advantage is mostly underpinned by "China's supply-chain advantages." Unitree offers robots priced from roughly $4,000 to $100,000, compared with about $150,000 to $1 million for Boston Dynamics models.

Unitree founders understood something the US robotics industry did not.

A robot engineers can afford to buy, break, modify, and buy again can create a much larger market than a perfect robot nobody can afford and people watch videos of online.

So Unitree shipped “Laikago” in… pic.twitter.com/GxHElhuOKG

— Gabriel (@gabriel_horwitz) August 18, 2026

Readers should not be surprised that China is leading the humanoid-robotics race. We have outlined this trend on multiple occasions (see here).

The U.S. invented the robot dog.

China is about to dominate the market.

Tomorrow Unitree starts trading at a $9bn valuation after selling 23,000 quadrupeds last year. We had a 15-year head start.

This is how America turned a research lead into a manufacturing loss...🧵 pic.twitter.com/lTBtmWmTv4

— Gabriel (@gabriel_horwitz) August 18, 2026

The big question is whether President Trump can close the gap, given that the US lacks the fully integrated supply chains needed to manufacture critical components, including rare-earth magnets and actuators that power these robots.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 07:05

Jeff Currie: Forget $91 Brent, The Real Crisis Is $170 Diesel

Brent at $90.94 looks almost civilized. Jeff Currie thinks that is exactly the problem: everyone is staring at crude while the real energy shock is already showing up in the fuels people actually buy.

As OilPrice reports, "Nobody on the planet earth consumes crude oil,” Currie told CNBC. Refineries do. Everyone else consumes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and those markets look considerably uglier.

European diesel was trading around $170 per barrel during the interview, Currie said, almost twice Brent’s current $90.94. WTI was trading at $84.94 Tuesday.

Historically, crude and refined-product prices moved closely enough that crude served as a reasonable shorthand for the broader energy market. Currie says that relationship has broken down.

Part of the disconnect came from roughly 100 million to 120 million barrels of crude trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz following a surge in supplies in late June and early July. China then cut refinery runs, which helped keep crude prices softer but made product supplies tighter.

In other words, China did not solve the shortage. It moved it downstream.

Currie also argues governments have spent decades creating an “illusion of abundance” during supply disruptions by releasing strategic reserves and talking markets down. That strategy has worked before. This disruption, he said, is different because of its scale, duration, and the increasingly tight product market.

The inflation implications are considerably less academic. CNBC noted that gasoline prices are about 30% higher than a year ago, while diesel is up 46%. Diesel feeds directly into trucking, shipping and industrial costs.

Currie expects the crude-product dislocation to eventually correct as refiners chase historically high margins and increase runs.

Until then, $91 Brent may be giving investors a comforting picture of an oil market that consumers stopped living in weeks ago.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 06:55

Disengagement: Trump Vows New Strategy To 'Strangle' Iran Over Time Summary

• No talks: Trump confirms US-Iran negotiations are off, vows to 'strangle them' over time.
• Hormuz attack: Tanker hit, injuring a crew member.
• Houthis escalate: Attacks shut Yemen’s Mokha port.
• Diplomacy stalled: Qatar says not mediating until Oman-Hormuz deal finalized.
• Iran hardens: Tehran says it maintains an offensive posture.

//--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Yes 9% · No 92%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Disengagement: Trump Vows New Strategy of Strangling Iran

The US administration has already said this many times and in many different ways. We suppose President Trump wants the world to know that talks with Iran are really really over this time, and the gloves are coming off (again):

US President Trump told top administration envoys to halt their conversations with Iran, according to CNN citing a US official

"White House officials have recently communicated to political allies that they are shifting their strategy — going from “hammer Iran ASAP” to “strangle them” over time.

While there have been no new bombs away just yet, the statement comes after earlier in the day the UAE government reported a rare instance of a pair of alleged Iranian missiles inbound in its territory. Iran subsequently denied that it was behind any attack. Earlier in the summer Kuwait and Bahrain were targets of frequent attacks, but the UAE was largely spared in the most recent salvos.

Trump is now not pursuing to revive talks at all, it appears, and this is being dubbed as a new 'disengagement' strategy. According to more from CNN: "And instead of claiming talks were proceeding well, and that a new deal was just around the corner — as he’s asserted repeatedly since the ceasefire signed in June fell apart — Trump announced there was no diplomacy underway whatsoever."

So this could finally mark the end of the fake and premature 'deal imminent' headlines which not infrequently marked earlier phases of the war.

UAE Under Missile Alert

While initial details and the precise nature of the threat remain unclear, the UAE has said it detected a missile threat targeting the country. "UAE air defense systems detected a missile threat targeting the county," the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority said in a post on X. This has included Dubai residents receiving a UAE missile threat alert.

The country has not actually been targeted much by Iran throughout the war. The UAE has in follow-up said the situation is currently "safe" after the missile threat. Air-defenses detected two inbound:

UAE Defense Ministry said it detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, one missile fell outside territorial waters, second fell inside.

Trump Confirms 'No Talks' - Says Hormuz 'Open & Operating'; Oil Slides

President Trump issued a new Truth Social post, within hours after posting a map depicting the Strait of Hormuz as a 'new US territory'. He affirmed there are currently no talks or conversations happening with the Iranians - nor is there so much as anything scheduled. However, he claimed the strait is "open and operating" - with water minds having been "removed or detonated".

A White House official tells me that Trump’s Truth Social post below is him calling off talks with Iran for the foreseeable future ⬇️ https://t.co/6dIvne1LqU

— Shelby Talcott (@ShelbyTalcott) August 18, 2026

Perhaps as intended, oil reacted to the claim of an 'open' and supposedly mine-free Strait of Hormuz, sliding on the statement...

Iranian Attack on Outbound Tanker in Hormuz

Yet another attack has occurred in the Strait of Hormuz, this time on a foreign tanker on an outbound transit route, which Iran and Oman claim to directly oversee and administer according to the terms of the Oman deal for managing the strait which is still being finalized.

UK Maritime Trade Operations says Tuesday that the unknown projectile caused engine-room damage and a crew casualty, with the remaining crew being rescued and assisted by the Omani Coast Guard.

Such attacks which mark enforcement of Iran's protocol and claim of control over the vital energy transit waterway have been steady, though not rapid, over the last several weeks. Oil prices have been on the rise this week, also as it continues to be clear that Washington and Tehran are digging in with their competing maximum demands.

Houthis Escalate in Red Sea

Hormuz isn't the only chokepoint still witnessing active conflict. Waters off Yemen and the Red Sea also continue to heat up, with the Iranian-allied Houthi rebels still escalating.

According to The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, the group is "shutting down operations at a strategic seaport and pushing closer to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, an important global shipping chokepoint."

The report cites Yemeni authorities to describe, "The militant group’s recent missile and drone attacks forced the closure of the port of Mokha, a key logistics hub for civilian shipping and for anti-Houthi forces operating along the coast."

According to more on the significance:

"This is the most significant escalation in quite a few years, maybe since 2020," said Adam Baron, a Yemen expert and fellow with New America, a policy institute in Washington.

Baron called the port of Mokha the key logistics hub for anti-Houthi forces on the Red Sea. The Houthis control mountainous terrain inland from the Bab al-Mandeb but not the coast along the crucial waterway, which is held by opposing forces. 

No Movement on Talks until After Oman Deal Signed: Qatar

On the question of finding a path toward broader US-Iran peace, there's still no movements on talks. Qatar is even openly saying that its direct mediation efforts won't resume until the Oman deal is finalized - which critics have complained gives Iran de facto control of operations in the Strait of Hormuz.

"Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari says during a news conference that countries mediating between Iran and the US are waiting for Iran and Oman to announce an expected agreement on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, before pushing Washington and Tehran to resume negotiations aimed at ending their war," Al Jazeera reports.

President Trump's latest rhetoric and social media activity is not going to help the cause of peace, or the two sides getting back to the negotiating table. After verbalizing Monday that the US should declare the Hormuz Strait a US territory, he posted the following to Truth Social on Tuesday:

All of this comes on the heels of the 60-day diplomatic window set by the MoU inked in June has expired. Tehran said it was already effectively dead anyway, and thus "irrelevant" - blaming Washington for having violated its terms on multiple occasions.

Rough Road to November

Trump is meanwhile ultimately sticking to the following as an ultimate goal of the Iran conflict: "The number one Goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a Nuclear Weapon. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP," he earlier stated on Truth Social.

The path to midterm elections in November continues to be a rough one for the US administration, and the pain is likely to continue for at least the time being...

President Donald Trump's approval rating fell to the lowest level of his presidency, ‌with an overwhelming majority of Americans concerned the US war with Iran will last a long time, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll https://t.co/364a3rlckM pic.twitter.com/UrDCYmf8m0

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 18, 2026

Not only has Iran not backed down, but its military is newly claiming to take an "offensive" posture and has reshuffled its command accordingly. If there are new tit-for-tat attacks, Tehran is in essence saying the next salvo will go bigger.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 06:33

7 Federal Agencies & Big Pharma Quietly Built A Pandemic-Industrial Complex

Authored by Jon Fleetwood via substack,

Nearly 14 years before COVID-19, HHS created the Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise (PHEMCE) and centralized federal health, biomedical, regulatory, homeland-security, and military functions around a government-directed countermeasure pipeline.

Creating what this website refers to as the Pandemic-Industrial Complex (PIC).

PHEMCE centralized seven named federal agencies and components (ASPR, CDC, FDA, NIH, DOD, DHS, and VA) across four Cabinet departments: HHS, DOD, DHS, and VA.

Private industry was explicitly inserted into that structure.

HHS named pharmaceutical manufacturers, biotechnology companies, clinical research organizations, and private research organizations.

Then it proposed increasing industry access to HHS agencies, streamlining regulation, lowering obstacles to private investment, and applying liability protections.

The government’s own documents show the same apparatus stretching from threat detection and intelligence assessments through research, product development, regulation, procurement, stockpiling, deployment, and use.

The national-security conflict is obvious.

What happens when the government institutions helping define an alleged biological threat are centralized with the institutions funding research around it, determining what product should be made, regulating that product, buying it, and organizing its deployment?

And what happens if research financed or overseen within the wider biodefense ecosystem contributes to producing the very threat that activates that apparatus?

Congress, the White House, the Department of Energy, the FBI, the CIA, and Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) all acknowledged that the COVID-19 pandemic was “likely” the result of a laboratory incident involving engineered pathogens.

HHS itself warned in 2006 that laboratory-engineered organisms:

“might even be mistaken as naturally occurring emerging agents.”

That warning makes the conflict much harder to dismiss.

DARPA’s PROPHECY, ADEPT, P3 and PREEMPT programs provide a concrete example of what this PHEMCE architecture looked like inside DOD: military programs moved from predicting alleged viral evolution to sequence-based pharmaceuticals, compressed countermeasure timelines and animal-virus surveillance, while DEFUSE proposed applying that machinery specifically to SARS-related bat coronaviruses.

HHS Creates PHEMCE & Orders Government & Industry to ‘Align & Synchronize’

HHS’s September 8, 2006, draft PHEMCE Strategy states:

“HHS created the Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise (PHEMCE) in July 2006... The PHEMCE is a coordinated interagency effort led by HHS and charged with the responsibility to: (1) Define and prioritize requirements for public health medical emergency countermeasures; (2) coordinate research, early- and advanced product development and procurement activities to address the requirements; and (3) set deployment and use strategies for medical countermeasures held in the Strategic National Stockpile.”

HHS then defined the reach of the apparatus:

“The PHEMCE Strategy defines the principles and objectives that will guide our Implementation Plan for the entire PHEMCE-surveillance/detection of threats; research, development, acquisition, storage/maintenance, deployment and utilization of medical countermeasures.”

The government justified this concentration by citing alleged CBRN and biological threats, then demanded:

“unprecedented cooperation among all levels of Government, private industry, academia, international partners and the public.”

And under HHS leadership:

“we must align and synchronize efforts on the part of all key stakeholders involved in the PHEMCE.”

HHS also explicitly inserted private industry into the product-development system:

“Private research organizations, pharmaceutical manufacturers, biotechnology companies, and clinical research organizations already have many of the resources and the expertise needed to develop MCM but have been reluctant to make substantial investments in research and development because of market uncertainties.”

Then:

“HHS will work to streamline the regulatory process for medical countermeasures. HHS will facilitate private investment of time, energy and resources in MCM development by removing or lowering obstacles whenever appropriate, including the application of liability protections where appropriate.”

And one passage reveals what HHS itself counted as a “benefit”:

“As with the definition of costs, benefits also go beyond the simple definition of ‘curing disease’ and include concepts such as overall lifecycle of the medical countermeasure including storage, utilization and deployment.”

That is the conflict in plain language.

PHEMCE was not organized solely around whether a product cured disease.

HHS explicitly counted the product’s storage, utilization, and deployment as part of its “benefit.”

The 2007 Plan Turns PHEMCE Into an ‘End-to-End’ Threat-to-Product Pipeline

The April 2007 implementation plan described the centralized structure this way:

“The HHS Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise (PHEMCE) has taken a holistic, end-to-end approach that considers multiple aspects of the medical countermeasures mission including research, development, acquisition, storage, maintenance, deployment, and guidance for utilization.”

It then names the agencies:

“HHS PHEMCE is a coordinated, intra-agency effort led by the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) and includes three HHS internal agencies: the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Additionally, HHS PHEMCE collaborates with its ex officio members: the Department of Defense (DOD), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and other interagency stakeholders as appropriate.”

The plan then lays out the threat-to-product sequence.

HHS said medical-countermeasure requirements would incorporate:

“subject matter expert evaluations, domestic and international intelligence information”

and immediately moved to:

“Identify and prioritize near-, mid-, and long-term development and acquisition programs”

for products potentially covering:

“the entire U.S. population.”

Government procurement could then be sized to:

“drive industrial development of the medical countermeasure.”

NIH was ordered to align its research with PHEMCE priorities:

“NIH will align research and development efforts with the PHEMCE priority medical countermeasure programs.”

And HHS wanted:

“a sustainable, continuous stream of promising medical countermeasures in the pipeline that are aligned with top priority HHS PHEMCE requirements for future acquisitions”

The same plan sought technologies permitting:

“rapid identification and characterization of novel threat agents”

followed by:

“rapid production of new vaccines.”

That is the architecture.

Threat designation → intelligence → product requirement → research → industrial development → acquisition → deployment.

Bottom Line

The two HHS documents confirm PHEMCE centralized seven named federal agencies and components across four Cabinet departments while explicitly inserting pharmaceutical and biotechnology interests into the same government-directed countermeasure structure.

HHS ordered participants to “align and synchronize,” proposed streamlined regulation, lower barriers and liability protections for private developers, contemplated government financing through clinical trials, and said government purchases could “drive industrial development.”

NIH was ordered to maintain a “sustainable, continuous stream” of products aligned with “future acquisitions.”

And HHS itself acknowledged that laboratory-engineered organisms could be “mistaken as naturally occurring emerging agents.”

In all, the documents reveal the central conflict of the Pandemic-Industrial Complex: the same broader government system can help define an alleged biological threat, finance research around it, determine the product requirements, integrate private industry, influence regulation, create the market through procurement, purchase the resulting products and organize their deployment.

That conflict is no longer merely hypothetical.

A laboratory incident involving coronavirus research is itself a mainstream hypothesis under consideration for the origin of COVID-19.

If COVID-19 resulted from research connected to the same wider U.S.-funded biodefense and pandemic-preparedness ecosystem represented inside this apparatus, the implications would extend far beyond public health: a government-connected research ecosystem could be implicated in causing an international biological catastrophe while interconnected institutions within that wider system possessed roles in assessing its origin, controlling relevant information and intelligence, and directing the resulting countermeasure response.

Who independently investigates the system when the system itself may be implicated?

And if a government-connected research ecosystem can potentially contribute to producing the biological catastrophe, while the wider apparatus can then define the threat, finance the response, create the product requirements, “drive industrial development” and organize deployment, does the resulting emergency expose the system—or give that same system more money, authority, and power?

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 06:30

Saudis Offer To Sell Oil Near Oman, A Sign They're Sailing Dark Through Hormuz

Saudi Arabia spent weeks finding ways around the Strait of Hormuz. Now it is starting to send tankers straight back through it.

According to OilPrice.com, Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings from its Ras Tanura and Juaymah terminals inside the strait last week, ending a three-week gap in activity at the ports, according to Kpler and Vortexa data cited by Reuters.

Three VLCCs -- Malaysia Prosperity, Algeria Prosperity and Singapore Prosperity -- each loaded roughly 2 million barrels between August 12 and August 16. Six more VLCCs could load Saudi crude from inside Hormuz later this month, provisional Kpler data showed.

The next round may involve Saudi Arabia’s own ships. According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia is offering to sell oil from off the coast of Oman, a sign that the kingdom may be following the United Arab Emirates in shuttling more barrels through the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Aramco is offering cargoes on a so-called ship-to-ship basis from locations including Sohar in the Gulf of Oman. The grades being marketed are Arab Medium and Arab Heavy, something that means it’s highly likely the barrels came from inside the Persian Gulf.

For now, the offers are only being made to some Chinese refiners, Bloomberg sources said. Many of the nation’s processors prefer the heavier and relatively sulfur-rich grades produced by Aramco, which are more suited to their complex refineries.

Middle Eastern producers have been pressing ahead with shuttling large volumes of crude out of the Persian Gulf, helping keep a lid on oil prices and assuaging fears of an energy-driven inflation spike. Aramco’s trading arm shuttled some supplies through Hormuz in May, but the kingdom’s ability to divert exports to its Red Sea port of Yanbu made it less reliant on the waterway.

Over the past several weeks, even those diverted Red Sea flows have come under threat after Yemen’s Houthi militants declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia.

There have been recent signs of a pickup in cargo activity from Saudi Arabia’s facilities inside the Persian Gulf. According to satellite imagery, vessels with at least 9 million barrels of transport capacity have loaded at or near the country’s giant Ras Tanura export installations over the past week.

Saudi Arabia has also amassed a large cluster of oil supertankers just outside of the gulf. Seven VLCCs operated by Saudi-based Bahri were sitting off the UAE and Oman on Tuesday, while another two were heading toward Fujairah, according to LSEG shipping data. Traders told Reuters that Aramco could use Saudi-controlled tankers for future Hormuz transits in addition to vessels operated by South Korea’s Sinokor.

That is a notable shift after Aramco halted sales from inside the strait for weeks following attacks on its tanker fleet during last month’s escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. 

It does not mean Saudi exports are back to normal.

Aramco is still offering Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah, allowing buyers to collect Saudi barrels without sending their own vessels through Hormuz.

Its other escape route has problems of its own. Saudi Arabia diverted exports toward Yanbu on the Red Sea earlier in the war, only to face a Houthi blockade there. Aramco has since offered crude from Egypt’s Sidi Kerir terminal, but only about 670,000 barrels per day is expected to load there for Asia this month, versus roughly 4 million bpd previously exported through Yanbu.

Longer voyages and higher freight costs have made that workaround a tough sell.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 05:45

Sovereign Debt Crisis: The French Left Wants To Simply Burn The Debt

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

For economic illiterates, socialists and social-state engineers, the world consists of one fundamental problem: Where does the credit come from that is supposed to turn the visions of central planners into a new reality? Once that question has been answered and the shaky financing is in place, the work can begin.

Ideally, socialists operate in a zero-interest-rate world in which even the most nonsensical projects, from the nuclear phase-out to the construction of wind turbines in forests, debt-financed arms deliveries to the Donbas, or even billion-dollar subsidies for the NGO industry, can be financed.

It is magical: The costs of this artificial credit, this nonsensical government demand, which ultimately has to be paid for through inflation and higher taxes, are concealed behind massive state propaganda and a delayed fiscal response. Cause and effect of government demand are thus separated from one another. Citizens find it difficult to understand why their economy is no longer growing while the state apparatus, meanwhile, is assuming Kafkaesque features.

In an interview with Les Nouveaux Médias, French socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon revealed his political secret for overcoming the debt crisis. His recipe is socialist, simple and one-dimensional. The French government should simply continue piling up debt, without any controls whatsoever. The European Central Bank could then serve as a kind of bond landfill and purchase surplus securities from the market once saturation has been reached.

This is followed by the unsubtle and predictable trick: The bonds thus neutralized could simply be burned on the balance sheet. They would virtually disappear from the memory of politicians, the public and the bond market. The debt ratio falls as well – the perfect digital money printer, a socialist paradise of unlimited possibilities.

Why has nobody thought of this before? Because the fact is: Which politician has any interest in public controversy and in recognizing that our world does not have unlimited resources, that a genuine problem of distribution exists? The credit pump could solve all problems in this simple world. Nobody would have to give anything up; prosperity would simply be printed into existence. That is how simple it is.

But haven’t we already reached this state long ago? In essence, the European Central Bank has been pursuing precisely such an infantile policy of illusion since the great sovereign debt crisis of a decade and a half ago. And now, once again, the new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) stands ready as a vehicle that, if necessary, is supposed to allow bond purchases without a pre-defined quantitative ceiling. Should the bond market give the thumbs-down to the mountain of debt accumulated by Europe’s club of debtors, the deficits will be closed with the credit pump.

Central-bank policy always creates the impression of extreme complexity and absolute control over market events. Bond markets are quantitatively deep, particularly at the so-called long end, the longer maturities of government bonds. It is by no means the case that a central bank could control this market even remotely. Its power unfolds at the short end, which is consequently where market manipulation is concentrated.

Mélenchon then presents his second brilliant idea: common bonds issued by the European Commission and likewise stabilized by the European Central Bank within a specific interest-rate corridor. Germany’s creditworthiness, still the anchor of the EU’s entire debt system, could also have a beneficial effect on interest rates in France, which is over-indebted at around 120 percent.

Mélenchon reveals staggering economic incompetence in an interview. Here is another sample:

Ultimately, according to his conception, this amounts to a triangular transaction: France participates in the Eurosystem through the Banque de France and is therefore indirectly involved in the European Central Bank. If the ECB purchases French government bonds, Mélenchon argues, this amounts to a kind of purchase of its own debt. France would ultimately owe itself credit and could therefore cancel these liabilities itself, provided the bonds were first parked at the ECB.

Only socialists or statists can devise such economic nonsense: borrowing without limits, then simply wiping the mountain of debt out of existence and leaving the people to deal with the inflation created in the process. This is a catastrophic breach of trust and the end of any civilized policy of government.

And consider what kind of policies are being implemented with the state credit pump: from financing the conflict in Ukraine and climate policy to the never-ending mass migration into the welfare state, which, like the pension system, must also be kept liquid with ever-increasing amounts of borrowed money.

Credit as a great political illusion. Credit that relieves the growing pressure for reform from narrow political shoulders in order to stabilize a system that has long since exceeded its economic limits.

Mélenchon is looking at new borrowing of 5.7 percent this year and knows exactly what is happening: The political stalemate in Paris prevents any form of fiscal consolidation.

The political camps are marching hand in hand toward sovereign bankruptcy. And German politics, too, apparently knows what is coming: Eurobonds, a consolidation of debt under the umbrella of the European Commission.

The first major test run: Next Generation EU, the €750 billion common-bond project that Brussels placed on the market during the COVID lockdowns – with German liability and ECB liquidity support, primarily to finance the gigantic deficits of Italy and Spain.

Common debt, known as Eurobonds, will be the inevitable next step in European integration. There can be little doubt about that. The construction of a European military sector alone will consume enormous amounts of resources, just as we have seen with the green command economy. This process is forcing German policymakers to waste seven percent of GDP on subsidies. The state is crowding out the private sector, while its bureaucracy consumes an ever-larger share of the slowly shrinking economic pie year after year: As a result, unemployment rises while private-sector investment is crowded out. The state has no other way to cope than through massive tax increases.

We are watching a financial crash in slow motion. Its final chapter will bring us the usual bailout policies, capital controls and financial repression. Thankfully, Mélenchon has given us some insight into the political mind games – and they are deeply alarming.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 05:00

The Super El Niño To Beat All Others?

The World Meteorological Organization predicts the sea surface temperature anomaly in the El Niño/La Niña indicator area in the Pacific Ocean to rise to an average of +2.9° Celsius in the August-September-October period.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, this would constitute the strongest El Niño since records started in 1950 and could lead to wet and stormy conditions across the entire southern part of the United States starting in the late fall. It could also mean more snowfall in regions that receive precipitation this way. In the Pacific Northwest, the El Niño phenomenon is conversely expected to lead to a dry winter. 

You will find more infographics at Statista

On a global scale, El Niño could cause very dry conditions in the Amazon, which experts fear is reaching a tipping point, droughts in vulnerable regions of Africa and more excess rainfall in parts of South America, Central Asia and the Horn of Africa.

There have been three episodes of very strong average El Niño temperature anomalies of +2° Celsius or more recorded since 1950 – in 1982 at +2.1° C between November and February, in 1997 at +2.4° C from November to January and in 2015 at +2.6° C, also for the November to January period.

This shows that this year's so-called Super El Niño is not only potentially stronger, but also starts earlier.

The WMO additionally said its expects ocean temps to rise further and to peak in November. For La Niña, episodes classified as strong (-1.5° C to -1.9° C) happened in 1973, 1988, 1999, 2000, 2008 and 2010.

During the last Super El Niño in 2015, the United States experienced a record cyclone season in the central Pacific (where Hawaii is located) and a 500-year drought in the Caribbean (including in Puerto Rico), while around the world, 2015 became the hottest year on record at the time and saw a devastating drought in Ethiopia and record-breaking wildfires in Indonesia.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 04:15

The Case For Britain Backing Its North Sea Oil & Gas Industry

Authored by David Whitehouse, chief executive of Offshore Energies UK, via City AM,

• Jackdaw and Rosebank could strengthen UK energy security by increasing domestic oil and gas production while demand remains substantial.

• The projects are expected to support billions of pounds of investment, thousands of jobs, and a broad UK offshore supply chain.

• Continued North Sea production could reduce import dependence while preserving engineering skills and industrial capacity needed for offshore wind, hydrogen, and carbon capture.

Britain faces a simple choice. While we still need oil and gas, do we produce more of it here, supporting jobs, investment, energy security and lower production emissions, or do we import more from overseas, which costs more and involves higher emissions? That is the real question facing ministers as they consider Jackdaw and Rosebank.

With extreme weather becoming ever more visible, the need to tackle climate change is beyond doubt. The UK must scale up renewable and low-carbon energy, but people deserve honesty. Even on our path to net zero, Britain will need oil and gas for years to come.

Oil and gas still meet around 75 per cent of current UK energy needs, which is why the decisions facing ministers on Jackdaw and Rosebank are so important.

Jackdaw could provide more than six per cent of UK gas supply by this winter, equivalent to the gas needed to heat around 1.4m homes. Rosebank is another major opportunity to strengthen domestic production while demand remains.

The public consultation on Jackdaw and Rosebank has now closed.

The economic prize is significant. More than £3bn has already been invested in these projects, with total anticipated investment reaching £10.8bn. Over their producing lives, they could contribute £28.7bn to the UK economy and generate £1.4bn in tax revenues before the end of this Parliament.

For readers, this is not an abstract debate. It is about capital allocation, supply chains and whether the UK remains a credible place to invest.

More than 170 UK supply chain companies are already involved. Jackdaw and Rosebank together will support around 3,500 jobs at peak construction, around 880 long-term jobs during production and 125 apprenticeships. Those skills are not yesterday’s economy. They are the same engineering and technical capabilities needed for tomorrow’s energy system.

Industrial strategy

Some argue the fastest route to net zero is to stop new domestic oil and gas production, but if UK production falls faster than demand, Britain will not stop using oil and gas. It will import more. In the process, we hollow out our industrial strength, skilled workforce and supply chains needed to build our energy future.

Production emissions from Jackdaw and Rosebank could be around eight times lower than imported liquefied natural gas. Importing more energy means exporting jobs, investment and emissions accountability.

Approving Jackdaw and Rosebank would not solve every challenge facing the North Sea, but it would send an important signal. There is a £50bn pipeline of potential oil and gas investment that could be unlocked over the coming decade.

That means jobs, tax revenues and energy security. It also means sustaining the supply chain companies Britain will rely on for offshore wind, hydrogen, carbon capture and the wider low-carbon economy.

If the government wants a serious industrial strategy that supports growth, it should back the North Sea during the transition. The alternative is higher import dependence, weaker domestic capability and less influence over the emissions linked to the energy we consume.

The UK should be ambitious about renewables. It should also be practical about the energy system we have today. Backing North Sea oil and gas production while demand remains is not a retreat from net zero. It is a responsible way to get there.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 03:30

Germany Opens New Drone Security Center Amid Fears Of Russian Hybrid Warfare

European officials have for years been warning about what they allege is heightened Russian hybrid and sabotage warfare targeting Europe and its airspace in connection with the long-running Ukraine war.

They've been further sounding the alarm in the wake of this month's drone incident near a runway at Leipzig Airport. Reports say a drone carrying explosives was found at this location, which remains one of Europe's largest cargo hubs, and is also used for NATO logistics.

An optical tracking system for drones and small aerial objects, via dpa

A NATO spokesperson later specified with the explosive-laden drone, which was equipped with a detonator, appeared to have been targeting an aircraft belonging to the Ukrainian cargo carrier Antonov Airlines.

This close call incident came in the wake of a series of mystery drone incidents which in some cases paused operations at commercial aviation hubs in northern Europe. While some episodes could have been the result of hobby drones or else local pranks or false alarms, EU officials have still long suspected Russian-linked nefarious actors.

Now Germany in particular is stepping up anti-drone security and monitoring measures, by establishing its first major drone security research center.

The new Drone Security Technology Center is part of the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), and officially opened Tuesday in the town of Cochsted, which is famous for its aviation history. The center will focus on research and technology for detecting hostile or unknown drone activity, protecting critical infrastructure from such incursions.

German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced, "Together with the DLR we are creating, with the new technology center, a facility that is unique nationwide, where innovative technologies for drone security are researched, developed and tested in real-life laboratories."

He described the new drone threat facing Germany and Europe more broadly as part of the "shadow war of the 21st century".

Leipzig-Halle airport is a big logistics hub for NATO and Ukraine. An attack with an armed drone on a Ukrainian cargo plane there was less hybrid warfare than warfare, full stop https://t.co/GG98Q1Zbkx

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) August 17, 2026

"Within the growing network of future test-field activities, the National Test Centre plays an integrative role as a trailblazer for future research and development of new UAS technologies within the DLR and for external partners," the center's website states.

The facility will further provide rare opportunity for drones and counter-drone technology to be tested in 'real-world conditions' and in multiple scenarios and settings, officials have described.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 02:45

Alexander Vindman Suffers Double-Digit Loss To Socialist Angie Nixon In Florida Senate Primary

Alexander Vindman - a central Russiagate figure who flipped out when Donald Trump asked Ukraine to investigate Biden family corruption - and who was offered the job of Ukraine's Minister of Defense three times two months before the infamous 'perfect' Trump-Zelensky call - was just beaten out of a Florida Senate seat by Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon, 44-56 in Tuesday night's primary.

Vindman and Nixon - a state Rep., were vying to take on incumbent Republican Sen. Ashley Moody (R) in November. Meanwhile, Alexander's twin brother Eugene Vindman is a current US Rep. from Virginia. 

Nixon, a recent convert to the Democratic Socialists of America and a vocal critic of Israel, was expected to lose to Vindman - a Jewish immigrant born in Ukraine, who raised over $16.3 million for his campaign. Nixon brought in $975,000 and achieved a double-digit victory.

Screenshot: NY Times

"We showed the world what organized people can accomplish," Nixon told supporters Tuesday night. "And we showed the world what people of Florida are all about. Medicare for all. Universal child care. Real, affordable housing. Fully funded public education. And an end to senseless wars."

The DSCC also responded to Nixon's victory, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-NY, and DSCC Chair Kristen Gillibrand, D-NY, saying in a joint statement.: "Angie Nixon has dedicated her career to fighting for Florida. A lifelong native of Jacksonville and a former union organizer, Angie’s dedication to put working families first runs deep - and now, she’s running to take that fight to the Senate."

During the campaign, Nixon slammed Vindman for being a recent Florida resident.

In 2023 she introduced a resolution in the state House calling for "de-escalation and ceasefire in the state of Israel and occupied Palestine," and said last week that she would have supported a congressional resolution in July that would have stripped Israel of $3.3 billion in military aid. 

"I would have voted in support of that, because we cannot continue to send money to countries that are violating international law, that are violating human rights, that are actively destroying," she told WMNF radio in Tampa. "Throughout my adult career, I have fought for the safety and the well-being and the humanity of all people. And me stating this does not make me antisemitic at all."

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 01:27