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ECB Preview: First Rate Hike Since 2023

Markets expect the ECB to hike by 25bps, the first rate hike since 2023, but do not look for explicit guidance on the path ahead, with the Council likely pledging in the statement to set monetary policy in a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting fashion. Lagarde is likely to highlight that tightening is appropriate, for example, by repeating that the energy shock requires “some measured adjustment” in the policy stance. Goldman does not expect her to provide any specific guidance on next steps but look for her to reiterate that the Council wants to see more data and does not need to rush

SUMMARY (courtesy of Newsquawk)

• The ECB is expected to hike by 25bps, taking the Deposit Rate to 2.25%. Justified by the assessment that the ECB is past the March baseline and is closer to the adverse scenario.
• Alongside this, inflation forecasts will likely be upgraded and growth downgraded across 2026. The cut off date will have influence on the 2026 inflation view, with a later date likely to see less hawkish projections. For growth, any signs of or commentary around a technical recession being possible.
• Guidance from the statement will be non-commital with the ECB to perhaps stress a vigilant approach to policymaking, which could be interpreted as a hawkish-nod. Lagarde may be somewhat more explicit vs the statement, in an attempt to stop inflation expectations from becoming unanchored.

OVERVIEW: Recent developments place the ECB somewhere between the baseline and adverse scenarios outlined in March. An assessment that chimes with expectations for a 25bps hike and supports keeping options open for the remainder of the year. However, the balancing act between growth and inflation means that pre-committing to further tightening is not necessary at this point. Instead the ECB, whether via the statement and/or President Lagarde, will likely emphasize that it will be vigilant, or words to that effect, in safeguarding against price pressures in the EZ while acknowledging the deteriorating growth environment.

EUR/USD and the German 10yr yield approach the meeting around 1.1550 and 3.05% respectively. The market basecase, of a 25bps hike, elevated inflation forecasts and downgraded growth forecasts alongside no firm commitment to further tightening, would likely see a modest hawkish reaction in the above. If the ECB is more direct and places less emphasis on growth and more on inflation, alongside opening the door more explicitly to further tightening, ING looks for EUR/USD and the 10yr yield to rise to 1.1650 and 3.10%; levels we last traded at on the 2nd of June and 21st of May respectively. A more hawkish outcome, particularly a statement/press conference that signals the start of a tightening cycle, could see 1.1700 and 3.15%.

HAWKISH RISK: The projections could show a bigger core inflation overshoot in 2027, with greater concern around the inflation outlook in the monetary policy statement and a clearer signal that additional tightening is coming. For example, the Council could note in the statement that it judges it appropriate to “begin” tightening monetary policy (hinting at a process rather than a one-time adjustment) and Lagarde could open up July by emphasizing that the Council will have important data on second-round effects by then (provided by its corporate telephone, wage and inflation expectations surveys).  

DOVISH RISK: The Council could return to a two-sided assessment of the risks around inflation, show an inflation undershoot in 2028 (more similar to the March adverse scenario) and emphasize patience in the press conference (e.g., by stressing that it will receive a lot more data by the September meeting). 

PREVIOUS MEETING: In April, the ECB held the Deposit Rate at 2.00% as expected. The statement emphasized that the US is well positioned to navigate the current period of uncertainty, and as such they were not pre-committing to a particular rate path, sticking to a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. No new forecasts in April, but the commentary emphasised that upside inflation risks had “intensified”, while longer-term expectations remained “well anchored”. On the growth side, downside risk had “intensified”. The statement sparked a mild dovish reaction, as outside calls for a more hawkish shift were unwound. The subsequent press conference saw President Lagarde unveil that the ECB debated a rate hike, but the decision to hold rates was unanimous. A press conference that sparked a hawkish reaction in European assets. The hawkish skew was added to by subsequent sources, suggesting that a June hike was seen as very likely, Reuters reported.

PRICES: Mayʼs inflation data had a headline rate of 3.2%, ticking up from the 3.0% in April. Pertinently, the ECBʼs HICP Y/Y forecast for 2026 is 2.6% in the baseline, 3.5% in the adverse and 4.4% in the severe scenario. As such, the May print took the bloc further away from the baseline and towards the adverse projection, a point that factors firmly in favour of tightening monetary policy; though the gap to the severe scenario means a 50bps move or pre-committing to tightening post-June are not warranted yet. Within the May series, the internals saw further upside in the energy component and pertinently a jump in Services, to 3.5% from 3.0%. Continuing with May, the Final S&P PMIs showed price pressures intensifying “to their most worrying for over three years, hinting at inflation potentially running close to 4% in the coming months.”. A view that, if shared among policy setters, could see some in favour of more explicit guidance than the statement and/or Lagarde are likely to give. From the ECB itself, the latest Consumer Expectations Survey for April (released in June) vs March, showed one- and five-year consumer expectations remain the same at 4.0% and 2.4% respectively. While the three-year view moderated to 2.9% (prev. 3.0%). Figures that are all above the 2% long-term target, however, the unchanged view shows that expectations were not unanchored in April and, while somewhat dated, provides policymakers with further scope to take an “insurance” hike, given the clear price pressures, but not commit to anything further at this stage.

For the new macroeconomic projections, the above points to an upgrade of at the very least the baseline view, but likely also one or possibly both of the alternative scenarios. Specifically, Nordea expects the 2026 baseline to lift to 3.0% (prev. 2.6%). One point of nuance in the forecasts, particularly for prices, is the cutoff date. In March, the ECB used an exceptionally late cut-off date and a very small date range for the assessment. The above is based on that being repeated and an early June cut-off being used. If not, then the technical assumptions around energy will be significantly higher and as such the near-term inflation view would be more hawkish vs a later cut-off.

ECONOMY: Q1 GDP for the EZ stood at -0.2% Q/Q, after being subject to a marked downward revision in the 3rd estimate from 0.15%. However, some of this stems from a -12.1% print from Ireland, hit by the unwind of tariff and pharmaceutical related activity in the comparison. A more timely indication courtesy of the S&P PMI for May points to another -0.2% Q/Q print in Q2, bar any significant shift in June; if realised in the hard data, that would see the EZ enter a technical recession. Furthermore, the PMI showed a pick up in labour market losses. Unemployment data from member nations remains weak, with the EZ figure in April ticking up to 6.3% (prev. 6.2%). The most timely data available at the time of writing is the German GfK for June, which was bleak at -29.8 though it did improve slightly from -33.3 despite NIM outlining that the “negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East remains largely unchanged…”.

For the new macroeconomic projections, the data is indicative of a downgrade. In March, the 2026 baseline, adverse and severe scenarios were 0.9%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. Nordea looks for the 2026 baseline to be downgraded to 0.7%. Taking the ECB closer but not to the adverse scenario from March, and as such chimes with the narrative for an insurance hike and while it does not aid the argument for further 2026 tightening, it does not shut the door to a post-June move.

COMMENTARY: Overall, commentary chimes with consensus for a 25bps hike in June, given recent economic developments, but that it is too soon to commit to any tightening thereafter. Recently, Schnabel (26th May) outlined that prices are between the baseline and the adverse scenario, adding that “in terms of persistence, we have actually moved beyond the adverse scenario, which assumed a rapid normalisation of oil prices.”. Prior to that, on the 26th of May, Schnabel said that they should hike in June irrespective of the peace proposal. Simkus (29th May) described a near term move as an insurance hike, but also downplayed the impact of even 50bps of tightening over 2026, noting that the timing for a second move is less clear. In terms of forward guidance, Lane (26th May) remarked that they will not be pre-commiting to a particular path after June.

TRADES: Goldman likes to receive July/September meeting switch at ~18bps (72% chance). The bank thinks that you can have both a (near term) hawkish path to no hike in September, as well as a dovish path. The (near term) hawkish path would involve no near-term resolution on Iran, with the SOH continuing to be closed by the time of the July meeting, leading to a second ECB hike in July. Subsequently, you could then either have a resolution between July and September, or signs of further economic weakness and limited wage pass through, meaning that, by the time of the September meeting, and with policy rates at the upper end of neutral, the ECB decides to skip a rate hike at the September meeting. The dovish path is one of a near term resolution and a glut of oil from ships stuck in SOH hitting the market, pushing down energy prices and inflation and inflation expectations. In this scenario, it is very feasible, that the ECB will not hike rates again after the June meeting. 

THOUGHTS FROM GOLDMAN'S TRADING DESK:

Jari Stehn (Head of European Economics): We expect the ECB to hike by 25bp but do not look for explicit guidance on the path ahead, with the Council likely pledging in the statement to set monetary policy in a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting fashion. Lagarde is likely to highlight that tightening is appropriate, for example, by repeating that the energy shock requires “some measured adjustment” in the policy stance. We do not expect her to provide any specific guidance on next steps but look for her to reiterate that the Council wants to see more data and does not need to rush. 

George Cole (Head of European Rates Strategy): Our bias is for terminal rate pricing lower and flatter curve. Key for today’s meeting will be the signal on July, currently priced not far off 50/50. If the message is that July is more of a tail outcome then market can shift towards pricing one and done, particularly given leak lower in energy prices on view that SoH is more impaired than fully shut with increasingly more oil transiting (though obviously a lot of headline risks with waR). Ultimately September is a long way off with ample time for resolution and/or the lower growth impacts of the war to come through. Specifically we will be watching: 

1. Core inflation forecasts and whether they show persistence – GS econ are 2.5% both for 26/27; would be dovish if lower/inverts 
2. Whether Lagarde emphasizes that tomorrow's move buys time to watch the data and that currently little signs of 2nd round effects in the labour market 

Jan Scheffel (Global Co-Head of Short Term Macro Trading): Given the high level of uncertainty we expect the ECB to keep full optionality on the future policy rate path, neither pre-committing or ruling out a move at the July meeting. We would expect Lagarde to use communication along the line of: “In assessing the timing and extend of further policy adjustments, the governing council will take a data-dependant, meeting by meeting, approach. We are not pre-committed to any policy path.” 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 07:45

Strategy (MSTR) CEO Says Bitcoin Sale Was About Market 'Inoculation', Not A Retreat

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Strategy Inc. CEO Phong Le somewhat pushed back Tuesday against the wave of criticism that followed the company’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022, telling CNBC’s Power Lunch that the move was a deliberate, limited exercise designed to signal operational flexibility — not a philosophical reversal.

“We wanted to inoculate the market and we wanted to test our processes,” Le said in what the network described as a first-time interview. “We learned that everything works.”

Between May 26 and May 31, Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for approximately $2.5 million at an average price of $77,135 per coin — a transaction that, despite representing just 0.004% of the company’s total holdings, set off an outsized market reaction and reignited debate over whether Michael Saylor’s famous “never sell” doctrine was being abandoned.

BITCOIN’S FOUR-YEAR CYCLE IS STILL IN PLAY

Strategy CEO Phong Le however says the drawdowns are "much more" than just where we're at in the four-year cycle.

Inflation, rates, wars, and regulatory clarity are all shaping $BTC's next move. pic.twitter.com/TZANZZaQIF

— CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) June 10, 2026

Le was careful to frame the disposal in terms of balance sheet management rather than conviction. He cited three reasons for the sale: establishing that Strategy can sell when necessary, confirming that internal systems for executing Bitcoin disposals are fully operational, and creating opportunities to capture tax losses on Bitcoin acquired at lower cost basis — the company has purchased BTC at prices ranging from $10,000 to $125,000 per coin.

Critically, he said the sale was not driven by financial distress.

“We did not need to sell our Bitcoin to satisfy our dividends,” Le said. “We’re able to do that through other capital-raising activities.”

Proceeds from the sale were directed toward distributions on the company’s STRC perpetual preferred stock.

Le also pointed out that Strategy remained a net buyer: on balance, the company purchased approximately 1,500 Bitcoin over the same period it sold the 32 coins.

The most pointed exchange came when the host pressed Le on the backlash from investors who believed Strategy had pledged never to liquidate its Bitcoin reserves. Le acknowledged the frustration but was unapologetic.

“We have a set of constituents that we have to be able to answer to,” he said, listing common stockholders, preferred shareholders, debt holders, and Bitcoin holders. “When it makes sense for our common stockholders for us to sell our Bitcoin, we will.”

Le suggested the loudest critics were retail investors and “crypto anarchists” ideologically committed to permanent hodling — not the institutional shareholders the company interacts with directly.

“Our institutional shareholders that we talked to don’t seem to be unnerved by it,” he said.

This was not Strategy’s first Bitcoin disposal. In December 2022, the company sold 704 BTC at $16,776 per coin and repurchased 810 BTC two days later — a tax-loss harvesting maneuver that exploited the lack of a crypto wash-sale rule.

Jeffrey’s chief market strategist David Zervos, who joined Le on set, asked about the macro picture around Bitcoin, noting weakness across traditional safe-haven assets. Le acknowledged the broader headwinds, citing three macro forces pressuring Bitcoin: uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, two ongoing global wars, and a lack of regulatory clarity from Congress on pending crypto legislation.

Still, Le remained bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term thesis. 

“I do think Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation. I think Bitcoin is a hedge against big government,” he said, adding that the current environment — potentially a cyclical drawdown — mirrors the roughly 75% pullback seen in May 2022, four years ago.

Bitcoin price and Strategy shares under pressure

The market, for now, is less sanguine. Bitcoin was trading around $61,600 on June 10, 2026 — down more than 40% from its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025. The sell-off deepened after the Strategy announcement coincided with record spot ETF outflows estimated between $2.8 billion and $3.5 billion, triggering $1.8 billion in forced liquidations in a single day.

MSTR shares have been caught in the same downdraft, trading near $117–$127 as of this week — down roughly 67% from their 52-week high of $457.

Strategy has since resumed buying, acquiring 1,550 BTC at an average price of $65,332 between June 1 and June 7 in a move analysts characterized as an effort to restore market confidence. 

As of late May, the company held 845,256 Bitcoin at a total cost basis of approximately $63.97 billion.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 07:20

Alcoa Plunges Most In Year After CFO Warns Alumina Unit "Will Be Underwater" Amid Hormuz Disruption

Alcoa shares in New York were hammered the most in over a year on Wednesday after CFO Molly Beerman warned investors that the company's alumina segment faces heavy losses from the energy shock and ongoing disruption at the Hormuz maritime chokepoint.

Beerman was blunt with investors while giving a presentation at the Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference.

She said, "Our alumina segment is very pressured right now," adding, "The segment as a whole will be underwater."

Beerman said the unprofitability in the alumina segment stems from a toxic cocktail of soaring energy costs, supply disruptions in the Gulf region, and LNG disruptions in Western Australia following Cyclone Narelle.

Alcoa's alumina refineries are heavily exposed because they rely on fuel and electricity, and typically ship material to aluminum smelters in the Persian Gulf.

Alcoa's alumina refineries are mainly in Western Australia, Brazil, and Spain. None are located in the Gulf region.

What's important is that the company's refining assets are outside the Gulf, but its alumina cargoes feed Gulf smelters, making the business exposed to ongoing Hormuz shipping disruption and Gulf energy shocks.

Alcoa expects 2026 Alumina segment production of 9.7-9.9 million metric tons and shipments of 11.8-12.0 million metric tons.

Beerman's warning sent shares tumbling 9.5% in New York on Wednesday, marking the largest one-day drop in 14 months. Shares were up 2% in premarket trading, clawing back some of yesterday's losses.

Year-to-date, the stock is up 23.4% and is nearing its 2022 highs.

According to Bloomberg data, Wall Street analysts are mostly bullish on AA. 

We have cited several institutional metal desks, including Mercuria, Goldman, and JPMorgan, all of which see the Gulf energy shock producing a supply shock in the aluminum market. This has sent prices back to 2022 highs.

Mercuria commodities analyst Nick Snowdon recently told Reuters on the sidelines of the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, that "The scale of the supply shock we're seeing in the aluminum market is probably the largest single supply shock a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era."

Snowdon then told the outlet, "We are already in a 'black swan' event. No one could have foreseen something on this scale."

Latest reporting:

• Aluminum Supply Crisis Is About To Get Worse
• Aluminum Bull Case Gains Traction As Output Shrinks

Alcoa recently warned investors that the energy shock would weigh on second-quarter earnings.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 06:55

UK Plans To Jail Tech CEOs Who Refuse To Spy On Every Phone

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

New measures would compel client-side inspection of every photo, video and message on devices, escalating the digital ID lockdown already plotted for British smartphones in coordination with major technology firms.

Privacy advocates warn the "child safety" framing masks a broader drive to turn personal phones into mandatory surveillance endpoints, with criminal penalties aimed at any executive who resists.

Reclaim The Net, an organization dedicated to countering online censorship and digital surveillance, flagged the draft legislation in recent updates.

The UK is drafting a law to jail tech execs for 5 YEARS if they refuse to build scanners that scan EVERY photo, video & message on your phone.

Refuse the backdoor = go to prison.

All while screaming "think of the children." https://t.co/fN2rLCwuGk

— Reclaim The Net (@ReclaimTheNetHQ) June 9, 2026

The group described how UK authorities are preparing to imprison tech executives for up to five years under the Online Safety Act if companies refuse to build and deploy scanners capable of reviewing every piece of content on user devices.

The push targets expanded "client-side scanning" features, requiring devices to inspect material before it is sent or received.

Existing tools from Apple and Google, such as nudity detection in Messages or sensitive content warnings, would be broadened into comprehensive, always-active systems. Non-compliance would trigger direct penalties against company leadership rather than the firms alone.

UK Wants Message Scanning on Phones, Jail CEOs Who Refusehttps://t.co/B3WfHIS21p

— Reclaim The Net (@ReclaimTheNetHQ) June 9, 2026

Former Home Office safeguarding minister Jess Phillips, who resigned in May, had publicly pressed for faster action. She stated it had taken a year to secure agreement even to threaten legislation in this space and expressed frustration that promised timelines kept slipping, questioning how many children had gone without protections while focus remained on tech company objections.

? Tech companies like Apple and Google have three months.

Activate safeguards on smartphones and tablets to detect and block nude images for children or we will bring forward legislation to force you to do so.

— Home Office (@ukhomeoffice) June 8, 2026

This scanning requirement advances the same agenda detailed in earlier reporting on UK government plans to tie smartphone access to digital identification. Under those proposals, full device functionality would depend on users submitting verified government ID during setup or ongoing use, often through biometric checks such as video selfies paired with document scans.

Without compliance, devices would default to restricted child-locked modes, limiting core features like unrestricted messaging, streaming and browsing. The approach effectively creates a chokehold on software and internet access for anyone unwilling to submit to centralized identity verification.

? BREAKING: Keir Starmer threatens mandatory ID checks to use mobile phones

"Protecting children online is vital, but these are outrageous plans that will fail to address the underlying causes of online harm. This will only result in population-wide ID checks for all of us to... pic.twitter.com/GQVFUu4jdh

— Big Brother Watch (@BigBrotherWatch) June 8, 2026

Google has already begun rolling out digital ID support in the UK via Google Wallet on Android devices. Users can add verified copies of passports or other documents after completing a short video selfie and ID scan.

The feature aligns with Online Safety Act age checks and is being explored for wider certification under the government's digital identity trust framework, including potential use for age-restricted purchases.

Apple has implemented parallel restrictions on iOS in Britain, forcing age confirmation steps that previously caused major disruptions for millions of users.

Silkie Carlo of Big Brother Watch condemned the direction. "Protecting children online is vital, but these are outrageous plans that will fail to address the underlying causes of online harm," she said. "This will only result in population-wide ID checks for all of us to use our phones, tablets and laptops."

Carlo added: "Put simply, the Labour Government is introducing ID checks for the internet. No one in a democracy should need to show their passport just to get online."

She noted that the measures substitute performative government control for genuine parental responsibility, with children easily circumventing restrictions by using adult-registered devices. For adults, the backdoor digital ID requirement would mark "the death of anonymity and internet privacy."

?NEWS: The UK Government is planning to force tech companies to restrict phones

"This will only result in population-wide ID checks for all of us to use our phones, tablets and laptops.

These plans would replace efforts for meaningful tech and parental responsibility with... pic.twitter.com/OCUfCRH0RY

— Big Brother Watch (@BigBrotherWatch) June 5, 2026

GrapheneOS, the open-source privacy and security hardened mobile operating system, has laid bare how Apple and Google are weaponizing hardware-based attestation to eliminate competition and lock users into their approved devices and operating systems.

Apple and Google are gradually expanding their use of hardware-based attestation. They're convincing a growing number of services to adopt it. Google's Play Integrity API and Apple's App Attest API are very similar. Apple brought it to the web via Privacy Pass, which Google...

— GrapheneOS (@GrapheneOS) May 10, 2026

Governments are actively accelerating this lock-in. The EU and other authorities are mandating Apple and Google attestation for digital payments, government ID systems, age verification and banking apps, forcing citizens onto approved hardware and OSes just to access essential services.

The new jail threat for non-compliant executives directly operationalizes long-standing intelligence priorities. Client-side scanning has been a GCHQ ambition for years. Once embedded through regulatory compulsion, the technology sits inside every device and can analyze content before encryption takes effect.

Proponents present it as narrowly focused on blocking child sexual abuse material or grooming. The underlying code, however, supports expansion to any content category authorities later designate as prohibited, with updates pushed remotely and without fresh legislation or user consent.

This fits the wider digital ID infrastructure already under construction. The government's One Login platform and planned GOV.UK Wallet aim to centralize identity verification across services, incorporating biometric data, comprehensive audit trails and permission frameworks that can deny access to jobs, purchases or other functions based on compliance status.

Private discussions have included assigning digital IDs to newborns alongside health records, modeled on systems like Estonia's, creating cradle-to-grave profiles from the moment of birth registration.

Officials repeatedly frame these steps as essential child protection. Yet the architecture prioritizes mass data collection and device-level access over precise interventions.

Real exploitation concerns persist, but the chosen tools create permanent surveillance capacity that can be repurposed far beyond the initial justification.

The same political class overseeing high migration levels and repeated institutional failures around grooming scandals now demands ever-deeper monitoring tools.

International parallels reinforce the pattern: global digital identity blueprints promoted through bodies such as the World Health Organization, with backing tied to entities like the Gates Foundation, outline interoperable systems for lifelong tracking from birth, integrating personal data with socioeconomic details and enabling AI-driven behavioral conditioning around services, information and compliance.

In Britain, phone-based digital ID combined with mandatory scanning forms interlocking pieces of this apparatus. What begins as age verification or content filtering quickly becomes the technical foundation for conditioning everyday access to communication and information.

Reclaim The Net has tracked these developments closely, cutting through official language to highlight how incremental demands on technology providers accumulate into fundamental losses of individual control over personal devices.

Privacy-first messaging technology company Signal has issued a direct rebuke of the UK government's scanning demands, charging that the UK government plans on "using a dystopian combination of age verification and content scanning," that "will not safeguard children," adding that "It endangers us all."

? pic.twitter.com/HMZNl9uJ0j

— Rare | ???? (@RareAxies) June 8, 2026

The company makes clear that forcing client-side scanning across every device, paired with the age verification and digital ID mechanisms already in motion, creates a system that cannot be limited to its stated purpose. Once the technical capability exists to inspect all photos, videos and messages on phones before encryption, the architecture stands ready for expansion far beyond nudity detection.

This position from Signal carries particular weight. The app's entire model rests on unbreakable encryption that keeps even the company itself from accessing user communications. Mandatory device-level scanning directly undermines that foundation, turning every smartphone into a potential informant regardless of which secure app a user chooses.

While ministers insist the measures target predators, Signal and other privacy advocates recognize the inevitable outcome: a surveillance apparatus that endangers the privacy and security of the entire population.

Companies that refuse to weaken their products face the newly proposed criminal penalties against executives, while those that comply hand the state a backdoor into every device.

Threatening prison time for executives who refuse to weaken device security or encryption sends a clear signal. Global technology companies operating in the UK face direct coercion to embed features that compromise user privacy for everyone, not merely targeted suspects.

This is what the UK spyware proposal means.

There must be government spyware on every mobile device. It shall watch everything that happens, including always watching the screen, looking for things the government disapproves of.

When anything is flagged by the software as...

— Mullvad.net (@mullvadnet) June 9, 2026

Britain edges closer to pioneering one of the most restrictive internet regimes among democratic nations, where routine phone use requires submission to centralized identity systems and preemptive content inspection. History shows such infrastructures rarely remain limited to their stated initial purposes.

Genuine protection of the vulnerable rests on strong families, community standards and focused law enforcement, not universal device spying sold as safety. The current trajectory constructs the mechanisms for expansive state oversight while eroding the private sphere that has long defined free societies.

As draft laws move from discussion to enforcement with criminal penalties attached, the opportunity to halt this digital chokehold narrows. Defending the principle that individuals retain sovereignty over their own phones and communications is now central to preserving liberty in an age of accelerating technological control.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 06:30

First Major Weather Organization Declares El Nino Onset As Food Inflation Risks Intensify

For months, we have warned readers that the probability of El Niño formation was rising, with downstream risks across critical agricultural growing belts. That forecast has now moved from a risk scenario to reality, as the first major weather body has formally declared the onset of this warming pattern in the equatorial Pacific, threatening to disrupt rainfall, temperatures, crop yields, power demand, and commodity flows into year-end.

Bloomberg commodity expert Javier Blas wrote on X, "The Japanese Meteorological Agency becomes the first major weather body to formally call the onset of El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific."

"It's the first El Niño in three years, and some forecasters expect it to be one of the strongest ever," Blas noted.

The Japanese Meteorological Agency becomes the first major weather body to formally call the onset of El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific.

It's the first El Niño in three years, and some forecaster expect to be one of the strongest ever. https://t.co/v6OlU9mMTu

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 10, 2026

Our coverage on the El Niño risk:

• We Are Being Warned That A "Godzilla El Niño" Could Absolutely Devastate Global Food Production
• Meteorologists Sound Alarm Over El Nino Plume Racing Across Pacific Like "Freight Train"
• Meteorologists Warn About Super El Nino Event
• UBS Warns El Nino May Intensify Food Inflation Across Asia

El Niño is driven by unusually warm Pacific waters and can shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide. Early impacts are already appearing, including a delayed Indian monsoon and disruptions to Peru's fishing season. Historically, strong El Niño events have reduced yields for the world's top agricultural belts.

Already...

• The Cost Of The Grain That Feeds Half The World Just Posted Biggest Monthly Surge Since 2008

Thailand white rice, a regional Asian benchmark, surged 20% in May, the largest monthly increase in data going back to 2008, according to Bloomberg.

Here is the Bloomberg overview of El Niño:

What is El Niño?

El Niño was first observed in the 1600s by Peruvian fishermen, who noticed that Pacific waters were unusually warm around Christmas time in some years. They named this naturally occurring phenomenon "El Niño de Navidad" in reference to the Christ Child.

During El Niño, trade winds that normally blow east-to-west and push warm Pacific water toward Asia begin to weaken or even reverse direction. It's unclear what triggers this shift, but it results in warm water drifting toward the Americas, heating large parts of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The extra warmth changes the atmosphere above the sea. Storm tracks shift and rainfall patterns move.

How often does El Niño occur?

There's no fixed timetable for when El Niño emerges. It typically appears every two to seven years and varies in strength and duration. The last event was in 2023-2024.

El Niño is part of a larger Pacific climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. The cycle swings between El Niño, its cooler counterpart La Niña and a neutral phase in between. During La Niña, the east-to-west trade winds become stronger, pushing warm water further west and resulting in a cooler-than-usual eastern Pacific.

The immense size of the Pacific Ocean, which covers around a third of the planet's surface, gives ENSO an outsized influence on global weather. While similar climate patterns exist in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, they don't have the same reach. El Niño and La Niña events usually peak between December and January, although their effects can linger for months.

What is a 'Super El Niño'?

El Niño is identified by monitoring the temperature levels in the Pacific Ocean, most commonly in a region known as Niño 3.4. The threshold for El Niño used by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is when the sea surface temperature exceeds the long-term average by at least 0.5C (0.9F) for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. For a strong El Niño, the temperature difference must be at least 1.5C; for a very strong El Niño it must reach at least 2C.

"Super El Niño" isn't an official term used by forecasters such as NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization. It's been popularized this year as a very strong El Niño looks to be on the cards.

Very strong El Niños are rare. There have only been around a handful since 1950 and the last one was in 2015-2016. Severe weather events are more likely to occur when there's a stronger El Niño, but they're not guaranteed.

How is the weather affected by El Niño?

The heat that El Niño slowly releases from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere often pushes global temperatures to new highs. Scientists expect 2027 to be one of the hottest years on record, potentially dethroning 2024, which came in 1.5C above the pre-industrial average, according to NOAA.

El Niño doesn't hit every region in the same way. The effects typically materialize in the tropics first, before spreading across Australia, Asia, the Americas and Africa.

Australia, southeast Asia, the northern US and Canada usually become hotter and drier, making them more prone to drought and wildfires. India can experience disruptions to monsoon rainfall. The southern US, Chile, Argentina and parts of East Africa frequently experience wetter conditions and a greater risk of flooding.

The Atlantic hurricane season often becomes quieter during El Niño years because increased wind shear — a sudden change in wind speed or direction — tears apart developing storms. The hurricanes that do form could still be highly destructive, but a lower frequency could reduce the harm to communities and infrastructure and limit disruption to oil and gas assets in the Gulf of Mexico.

There are usually around 14 named Atlantic storms from June through November — storms are given names when their wind speeds reach 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour. NOAA expects there to be only eight to 14 this time around, in part due to El Niño.

By contrast, typhoon activity across the Pacific tends to increase during El Niño years. The warmer water provides more fuel for these tropical storms, meaning Asia could face increased risk of typhoon damage.

Why do the changes from El Niño matter?

El Niño is one of the world's most closely watched climate signals because it offers clues about storms, drought risk, crop yields and energy demand months in advance.

Utilities use ENSO forecasts to gauge demand for heating and cooling. Higher temperatures boost electricity consumption for air conditioning. This can strain power grids and trigger blackouts. Less rainfall reduces output from hydroelectric dams.

Commodity traders watch for threats to crops, mining operations, oil and gas production and shipping routes. Drought can lower water levels in the Panama Canal, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, slowing cargo traffic through one of the world's busiest shipping bottlenecks.

El Niño can have both positive and negative effects but the global economic losses have historically outweighed the regional benefits. Scientists at Dartmouth College looked at the lingering five-year fallout from El Niños and estimated that the 1997-1998 event led to $5.7 trillion in lost gross domestic product globally.

How does El Niño affect food production?

Some crops benefit from El Niño. Higher rainfall in California, for example, is good for avocado and almond yields. However, many staples, including rice, wheat, palm oil, coffee and sugar, are produced in areas likely to face drier and hotter conditions.

Beyond the impact on land, El Niño can disrupt ocean fisheries. The warm Pacific water flowing eastward keeps a lid on cooler, nutrient-rich water ascending to the sea surface, resulting in fewer phytoplankton for fish to eat. Some fish, such as anchovies off the coast of Peru, may seek cooler, deeper water, making them harder to catch, while tropical species may venture to areas that are normally too cold.

Lower crop harvests, smaller fishing hauls and livestock casualties from extreme weather can threaten global food security and push up prices.

The reason the El Niño weather pattern is drawing so much concern is that weather shocks can directly impact agricultural yields, tighten food supplies, and send prices higher. That risk is emerging at the same time energy shocks from the Gulf are already lifting inflation expectations (read here). If food prices begin to accelerate on top of higher energy costs, the result could be a renewed inflationary period in the latter half of the year.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 05:45

Trump Says 'We'll Bomb The Sh*t Out Of Them' Tomorrow Too If No Deal,  After Dozens Of Tomahawks Hit Iran Summary

• Trump to FOX: 'We'll bomb the shit out of them tomorrow night.'" The president declared "we'll bomb them to rubble" again tomorrow night if there is no deal by then. US says strikes completed tonight.
• The IRGC is claiming to have struck 18 US military targets in two waves - including attack on Bahrain's US Fifth Fleet HQ.
• US begins strikes on Iran for second straight night: according to Centcom, "US forces began launching additional self-defense strikes today at 5:15 p.m. ET against multiple targets in Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction. The strikes are in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression."
• Explosions had been heard in the Iranian towns of Sirik, Manab, Bandar Abbas and Bushehr,
• Hegseth confirms imminent attacks on key Iranian facilities
• Trump says "Will be attacking Iran hard again today"
• Trump says "secret mission" has reopened the Strait
• Trump tells Fox he "may keep going" with strikes.
• Trump says Iran took too long to negotiate, and now "will have to pay the price".
• Tehran claims prior night attacks in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan as fulfilment of its previously vowed 'retaliation' - targeted the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, footage shows.
• Iran again signals it could cut off all indirect talks & any negotiations, says it is 'reviewing' US talks after latest exchange of missiles.

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 18% · No 83%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump Warns: "We'll Bomb the Shit Out of Them" if No Deal

Fox News' Trey Yingst has issued a new reporting update, quickly on the heels of a fresh Trump-ordered bombing of Iran. He says: "I asked the president what will happen if the Iranians don't sign an agreement that was put forward by American negotiators. President Trump said, 'We'll bomb the shit out of them tomorrow night.'" The president declared "we'll bomb them to rubble" again tomorrow night if there is no deal by then.

US MILITARY SAYS IT HAS COMPLETED LATEST STRIKES IN IRAN

Tonight's aggression has prompted Tehran to once again declare the Strait of Hormuz closed to “all types of vessels”. Bombs have not yet fallen directly on the capital, but reportedly outside of it. This could quickly change. Importantly concerning Trump's latest claims, Iranian leadership is denying that it engaged Trump directly tonight. The highlights from Fox's Yingst:

• The President told me he spoke directly with Iranian officials tonight who asked him to stop bombing.
• 49 Tomahawk missiles had been fired by the United States at the time we spoke, along with bombing from fighter jets.
• Closest target to Tehran was approximately 40 miles outside of the city.
• Trump added that the bombing will stop shortly, but that if they don't sign the agreement, "we'll bomb the shit out of them."
• President Trump called this "the most violated ceasefire in the history of the world." V
• Vice President JD Vance told me the United States is dealing with both moderate and more extreme voices in Iran as part of the negotiation process.

Spoke with President Trump tonight as he oversaw the U.S. military strikes against Iran from the Situation Room.

The President told me he spoke directly with Iranian officials tonight who asked him to stop bombing.

49 Tomahawk missiles had been fired by the United States at… pic.twitter.com/s4WnsPTO4d

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 10, 2026

Tasnim is now reporging fresh Iranian counter-attacks on US bases across the Gulf, with multiple explosions being reported at American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The IRGC is now claiming to have struck 18 US military targets in two waves.

Bahrain is where a key naval command headquarters is located, and the Iranians are newly claiming a direct targeted strike on the US Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters. We are once again witnessing the 'escalation ladder' ramp up, and negotiations seem in reality nowhere on the horizon. This could be the start of several more days of strikes and counter-attacks to come, as Tehran is not so easily going to come back to the negotiating table, hat in hand. But it seems the White House is still betting on this, though risk and unpredictability are skyrocketing at this stage.

Newly emerged widely circulating video shows an Iranian Cold War-era relic still active:

Iranian F-14 Tomcat fighter jet landing at one of the air bases in Iran.

Video claimed to be from tonight. pic.twitter.com/4ZNTJKa2k7

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) June 10, 2026 US Begins strikes on Iran

After multiple previews of the main event, US Central Command said that its forces began launching additional self-defense strikes today at 5:15 p.m. ET against multiple targets in Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction. "The strikes are in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression."
 

U.S. Central Command forces began launching additional self-defense strikes today at 5:15 p.m. ET against multiple targets in Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction. The strikes are in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression.

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) June 10, 2026

Local Iran media reported that explosions had been heard in the Iranian towns of Sirik, Manab, Bandar Abbas and Bushehr, while Al Hadath reported than an explosion was heard in the Al-Saban military camp in Aden, Yemen.

Additionally, there are unconfirmed reports that retaliatory Iranian ballistic missile launches are already underway, amidst what appears to be the resumption of a new round of U.S. strikes on Iran.

Early reports now indicate that retaliatory Iranian ballistic missile launches are already underway, amidst what appears to be the resumption of a new round of U.S. strikes on Iran.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 10, 2026

* * * 

Hegseth Signals Imminent Attacks On Key Iranian Facilities, Iran Says "Fully Prepared"

Echoing President trump's earlier comments, Sectary of War Pet Hegseth just announced that: "CENTCOM will be busy tonight, we will be hitting Iran hard, we will bomb key facilities in Iran."

🚨🇺🇸 BREAKING: Hegseth announces major strikes on Iran tonight:

"CENTCOM will be busy tonight, we will be hitting Iran hard, we will bomb key facilities in Iran."

Announcing the strikes before they happen is itself the strategy.

You don't telegraph a bombing campaign hours in… pic.twitter.com/gwKwQjem2R

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 10, 2026

As @MarioNawfal writes, Announcing the strikes before they happen is itself the strategy.

You don't telegraph a bombing campaign hours in advance unless the message matters more than the surprise.

This is the final-pressure play in its purest form: the bombs are loaded, the targets are picked, and the paper is still on the table waiting for a signature.

An Iranian military source told Tasnim news that:

"The Iranian armed forces are fully prepared tonight. If the Americans take any aggressive action, they will once again face heavy responses. 

The Americans' idea of 'controlled escalation' is foolish, and Iran will not hesitate to dictate new calculations to the Americans."

Oil prices are up at the highs of the day on the news...

Trump says "Secret Mission" has Allowed 200 Ships, 100 Million Barrels of Oil Through Strait

Confirming our reported from both a week ago (see "As Gulf States Plan Bypass Pipelines, US Military Is Quietly Helping Ships Cross Hormuz") and this afternoon ("Growing Number Of Oil Tankers Successfully Sneak Through Hormuz, Shrinking Iran's Leverage") moments ago Trump posted on Truth Social that he had "directed our Great U.S. Military to execute a secret mission to support Oil Tankers and other Commercial Ships through the Strait of Hormuz." Of course, the mission wasn't that secret if we discussed how the US military was helping ship cross the Strait one week ago. 

In any case, Trump added that "this effort has resulted in more than 100 MILLION Barrels of Oil making its way through the Strait, and into the Open Market. More than 200 Commercial Ships have safely traveled through the Strait," which would explain why oil prices have remained low and confirms what Goldman's Delta One head, Rich Privorotsky, wrote this morning, namely that "a lot has been thrown at the oil market and it’s simply not going up, which is remarkable given the level of escalation. The only conclusion that really fits the price action is that barrels are still getting through the Strait of Hormuz, visibly or otherwise. There doesn’t seem to be a more rational explanation."

"This wildly successful effort is because the UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz — NOT Iran" Trump concluded.

Now the question is whether Iran, whose leverage in the conflict would be viewed as dramatically reduced as a result of this development, will allow stealthy tankers and other ships, with transponders shut, to continue crossing the strait affirming Trump's implicit claim that the country no longer has control over the strait, or if Tehran will make a public demonstration of how much control it still has.

Trump says "will be attacking Iran hard again today"

Oil surged, jumping by more than a dollar with WTI rising above $91 with Brent touching $94 after President Trump vowed to strike Iran again and slammed the country for delaying talks on an interim peace deal, after renewed attacks overnight put further strain on a fragile two-month truce.

“We’re going to be attacking them, attacking them very hard,” Trump told reporters at the White House Wednesday. “We hit them hard yesterday, and we’re going to hit them hard again today.”

Trump declined to say what targets US forces would hit in Iran. The president renewed earlier criticism that Tehran has taken too long to negotiate an end to the conflict. 

“I’ve been working with Iran for a number of months, and they should sign their deal,” he said. “It was just tap, tap, tap, I don’t know what they’re doing.”

BREAKING: President Trump says he is going to continue bombing Iran "very hard" after it shot down a U.S. helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz.

"We're going to be attacking them and attacking them very hard."

"I've been working with Iran for a number of months, and they should… pic.twitter.com/tlO6S10uyo

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 10, 2026

Trump said he retaliated against the Islamic Republic for shooting down a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has not confirmed shooting down the aircraft and said it was reconsidering whether to persist with negotiations in light of the US attacks.

“The diplomatic process doesn’t happen in a vacuum and to advance any diplomatic process you need a minimum space to be able to move forward,” Esmail Baghaei, a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, was cited by the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency as saying. “Wherever necessary, our armed forces will respond to the enemy with authority.”

Trump’s comments came after the two sides once again exchanged strikes, underscoring how high tensions are running and the risk that intermittent indirect talks between Iran and the US may be derailed. The overnight clashes followed a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel earlier this week, but halted after Trump called on both sides to stop.

The S&P extended its decline to more than 1% and WTI climbed above $91 a barrel to session highs, after Trump’s comments.

Since almost the start of the conflict, Trump has swung from threats of intensified attacks to touting that a deal is within reach. Even with tensions escalating since last week, he had signaled he wants to contain hostilities and avoid a return to all-out war before the new post. 

A White House official said talks are still ongoing and that the US will exert maximum pressure until a deal is reached. Fox News first reported the status of the talks. The semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported that a Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran on Wednesday to discuss the diplomatic process to end the war.

The US military said it had completed an operation that saw fighter jets strike Iranian air defenses, ground control stations and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missiles on four American targets, including shelters housing F-35 fighter jets and a command center for the US military at Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan, state-run IRIB News said on Wednesday.

Iran also said it fired drones at the main US naval base in the Middle East, located in Bahrain, and struck Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait.  Kuwait’s defense ministry said it had intercepted projectiles early Wednesday, while Jordan said it had intercepted five Iranian missiles.

Tehran said it had exercised its “inherent right to legitimate self defense” and warned regional states not to allow the US and Israel to use their territory as a staging post for strikes on the Islamic Republic.

There were no immediate reports of casualties in any of the attacks.

* * * 

Could 'Keep Going' With Strikes: Trump to Fox

More strikes coming? Trump is certainly strongly hinting at this, and yet an overall strategic vision still remains murky and ill-defined. Once again he in a short 12-hour period went from hyping a deal being a few days away, to now threatening yet more attack waves on Iran, in wake of last night's:

President Trump said Wednesday that he's close to ordering more strikes on Iran after the country's attacks targeting American bases in Persian Gulf nations, according to Fox News' Trey Yingst.

Mr. Trump said he "may keep going" with strikes, which he said would target power plants and bridges, because Iranian negotiators are "tapping the United States along," according to Yingst.

He wrote on Truth Social just before these comments that Iran will have to "pay the price" after taking too long to proceed with negotiations. 

Trump: Iran Took Too Long To Negotiation, Now Will 'Pay'

As part of what the United States is calling its latest 'defensive strikes' after Iran shot down an Apache helicopter in the Hormuz region, American forces overnight into the early Wednesday hours targeted "air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites" - the Pentagon said. Iran confirmed that there were indeed fresh attacks around Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, but gave no details on the damage, or info on other strikes potentially conducted elsewhere across the Islamic Republic.

"The operation was a proportional response to recent attacks on U.S. forces and international commercial ships transiting regional waters," US Central Command (CENTCOM) said. Trump is meanwhile again lashing out at Tehran, claiming its military is now a "complete and total mess" - and yet it keeps responding:

Oil reacts, sensing no peaceful off-ramp or de-escalation on the horizon...

Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan Hit Hard by Iranian Overnight Attack

Tehran later claimed attacks in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan as fulfilment of its previously vowed 'retaliation' - and given these countries host American forces. This marks merely the second time this week the ceasefire was ignored (or rather, shattered - though the White House is maintaining it's still on) with major tit-for-tat strikes, as each side asserts that it is acting 'defensively'.

Iran has been saying it's going to keep up the pressure on Washington and its Gulf allies through both the 'battlefield and diplomacy' - with Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei freshly charging that the US is "undermining" the diplomatic process through "contradictory messages, frequent shifts in its positions and demands, as well as repeated violations of the ceasefire."

He indicated that at this point there's not even the "minimum level of conducive conditions" that is "required in order to carry out diplomacy effectively."

Bahrain and Kuwait got hit hardest in these newest strikes, with reports saying the US Fifth Fleet base came under fire:

BREAKING: Footage shows a ground-level explosion in Manama, Bahrain from an Iranian missile strike in the direction of the US 5th Fleet HQ minutes ago, with up to 20+ separate explosions now reported across the city. pic.twitter.com/LCHlZBGKra

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) June 10, 2026 Iran Touting Both 'Diplomacy & the Battlefield'

"The Zionist regime is also damaging this process through its repeated violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon," Baghaei said, adding "any diplomatic process is harmed by the use of force and unlawful actions."

"Diplomacy and the battlefield are not separate matters. Together they serve as instruments for safeguarding Iran’s national interests and security," he stressed in a familiar refrain of late.

He also indicated the question of negotiations will be "reviewed" in light of last night's developments, and further emphasized, "Wherever necessary, our armed forces will respond to the enemy with authority."

Only when you see it with your own eyes you start to appreciate how impressive a salvo of 10 Kheybar-Shekan Aero-Ballistic missiles is...

(especially when timed on purpose at dawn) pic.twitter.com/6JpTRBvBHW

— Patarames (@Pataramesh) June 10, 2026 "Every Side Believes They Can Control the Escalation"

But it's also clear Tehran feels it must assert strong red lines immediately and without hesitation if it is to survive this now several months-long military confrontation with Washington. On this, longtime regional war correspondent and analyst Elijah Magnier has some insight as to each side's calculus: 

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Magnier said it’s a volatile situation with no “stable political exit” as peace is far from being achieved while Lebanon and Gaza remain outside of any final settlement.

“The most dangerous thing is that every side believes they can control the escalation. However, a repeated incident can erode restraint, and if talks collapse completely, this controlled escalation could widen into a much larger conflict,” he said.

History has shown if “one strike crosses the red line” the attacks can spiral out of control, said Magnier.

Indeed in many ways that's how we got here in the first place.

Vital water infrastructure reportedly struck in Iran during this new round of intense but brief escalation:

U.S. military strikes reportedly hit drinking water storage tanks in the Bamani district of Sirik county, Hormozgan province, Iran. pic.twitter.com/GMw8Ha9DaH

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 10, 2026

The White House believed it could control the outcome from day one of Operation Epic Fury, and then perhaps a bit of panic set among US officials in when it was realized the government in Tehran would not so easily fall, and that the military apparatus would become hardened, and its power expanded. 

Reports of another US MQ-9 Reaper drone shot down over Iran:

Footage of U.S. MQ-9 Reaper falling down over Jam county, Bushehr province, Iran after it was hit. https://t.co/nJHBkyF2cz pic.twitter.com/99evGPBrgm

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 10, 2026

From there it took many weeks to get the naval armada in place, enough to where a blockade could be enacted against Iran's ports and its crucial oil exports. The White House continues to face several 'bad' and 'worse' options for dealing with the crisis, as energy prices are set to soar this summer.

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk...

• US President Trump told ABC that the US was responding to Iran and that it is important to respond to Iran downing the helicopter, as well as noted that the response is very strong and powerful.
• US VP JD Vance said the US is very close to reaching a deal that would address Iran's nuclear programme for the long term, which could come next week or months from now, but absolutely before the midterms, according to CBS.
• White House senior official said nothing has changed in their position regarding an agreement with Iran and it is still close despite the strikes.
• A US official said the US military carried out strikes on almost 20 targets inside of Iran, but noted preliminary assessments indicate most Iranian missiles and drones were successfully intercepted.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said they need to reassess, following the overnight clashes, when questioned on talks with the US, SNN reported.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry statement strongly condemns America's crime in its military aggression against Iran.
• An Iranian military source tells IRIB that no offensive military operations have been conducted in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours. Warned that if the enemy carries out another hostile action under the pretext of the military helicopter crash, it will face a decisive response.
• A massive fire in the centre of Erbil and an explosion has been heard near the US base in the vicinity, Mehr news reported citing sources.
• Local sources reported that an explosion was heard in the area of Qeshm city, Mehr News reports. However, this was later denied by the Qeshm governor.
• UN Security Council debated reviving the Iran sanctions panel, although Russia and China opposed the revival of the Iran sanctions committee, according to Tasnim.
• Israeli air raids hit the Lebanese towns of Touline, Srifa and Kafra. It was separately reported that missiles were spotted from Lebanon that were headed towards Kiryat Shmona and its surroundings, while rockets launched from Lebanon towards Upper Galilee were also detected.
• UKMTO has received a report of an incident 20nm Northeast of Oman’s Sohar.
• UKMTO reported an incident involving a cargo vessel 88 nautical miles southwest of Balhaf, Yemen.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 05:08

Germany's Big LNG Deal With Canada May Never Deliver A Single Cargo

Authored by Andrew Topf via OilPrice.com,

• Germany has signed long-term LNG offtake agreements with Canada's Ksi Lisims project, seeking energy security and supply diversification amid heightened geopolitical risks.

• Despite the deals, Canadian LNG may never physically reach Germany due to geography, shipping economics, and the lack of Atlantic Coast export infrastructure.

• Instead, Germany could use LNG cargo swaps, sending Canadian gas to Asian buyers while receiving equivalent volumes from suppliers closer to Europe.

The Iran war has made supplies of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, the most strategic since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Suddenly, countries are scrambling to get their hands on molecules that provide reliable baseload power to industries and homes.

That explains why Germany is buying LNG from Canada. It’s to ensure long-term energy security, reduce reliance on volatile global supplies, and diversify away from Middle Eastern and Russian energy markets.

At the end of May, the Canadian government brokered a deal between the Ksi Lisims LNG facility planned for north of Prince Rupert, on the British Columbia coast, and German company SEFE, which is agreeing to buy 1 million tonnes of LNG per year for up to 20 years

Ksi Lisims LNG is a joint venture owned by the Nisga’a Nation, Texas-based Western LNG, and Rockies LNG, a consortium of Canadian natural gas producers.

The agreement marked the first long-term LNG supply arrangement between a Canadian project and a European buyer.

On June 8, a second, preliminary deal was announced. Germany’s Uniper signed a letter of intent with Ksi Lisims LNG for a possible offtake agreement of 2 million tonnes of LNG per year.

Construction of the facility, which has an annual capacity of 12 million tonnes, could begin in 2027, although there some significant hurdles to overcome.

First and foremost is a Final Investment Decision. To get an FID across the line, Ksi Lisims must show there is enough demand to start construction. The JV already has binding offtake agreements with Shell (NYSE:SHEL) and TotalEnergies. With SEFE and Uniper, up to 7 million tonnes have been annually committed. Will that be enough, and will the facility be profitable in a future LNG market? Ksi Lisims must decide.

The $10 billion project is also facing political and legal challenges about the environmental impacts increased gas production and shipping will have on the area:

Two B.C. Supreme Court petitions were filed over the provincial government's decision last year to deem the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission pipeline "substantially started," meaning it wouldn't need a new environmental assessment.

The liquefied natural gas pipeline's construction, which was authorized in 2014, and a deadline to start it was extended to 2024, spurring the court challenges from Gitxsan Hereditary Chief Charlie Wright and environmentalist groups opposed to the project.

Construction started in 2024 but the pipeline is not yet finished.

These are all significant obstacles, but the bigger question is how Ksi Lisims would get the LNG from the Canadian West Coast to Germany.

Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre has said the better option would be to ship it from the east coast. But there are currently no operational LNG export plants on that side of Canada; only an import and peaking facility in New Brunswick owned by Repsol.

The only large-scale LNG facility in operation is LNG Canada in Kitimat, close to the proposed Ksi Lisims plant. The first phase of LNG Canada was finished in 2025; a year ago it loaded its first export cargo.

When asked why Ottawa wouldn’t pipe LNG across the country, then ship it directly across the Atlantic to Germany, the energy minister said it's cheaper to move the product by water — through the Panama Canal — than it is to pay tolls through a pipeline.

In practice, Germany may never receive LNG directly from Ksi Lisims, despite the project signing two separate offtake agreements.

Instead, the German companies could employ a concept that is becoming increasingly common in LNG markets: cargo swaps

Here’s how it works:

Instead of purchasing the LNG and physically delivering it to Germany, the companies would purchase the cargo and redirect it to buyers in Japan, South Kora, Taiwan or other Asian markets. In exchange, the companies would receive LNG from suppliers closer to Europe, like the US, Qatar, Algeria or Norway.

The result, says EnergyNow via the Financial Post, is lower shipping costs, shorter transit times, reduced congestion risk, and greater flexibility while maintaining the same overall gas supply balance.

This is already how major LNG portfolio players such as Shell, TotalEnergies, BP, and SEFE manage global supply chains. LNG contracts increasingly represent access to molecules rather than a commitment to move specific molecules from one point to another.

In the end, “the molecule doesn’t matter as much as the contract.”

A Canadian LNG contract provides supply from a stable democracy, reduced exposure to political disruptions, diversification from a single supplier, and long-term contractual security, states EnergyNow.

Reuters previously reported that German buyers are increasingly interested in acquiring Canadian LNG cargoes specifically because they can be swapped within global markets. Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson noted that European buyers see value in holding Canadian LNG positions even if the fuel is ultimately consumed elsewhere.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 05:00

EU Plans €100 Billion Project To Bring African Sunlight To Power Europe's Electric Revolution

The European Union, which has been starved for cheap energy since the start of the Ukraine war, is betting that the future of its energy system lies under the North African sun. On Tuesday, the European Commission pledged €5 billion of EU money to renewables projects in North Africa and the Middle East, which could feed electricity back into Europe’s grid, Politico reported.

The dream is that solar panels in the sun-soaked Sahara Desert and wind turbines along the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean generate electricity that is then sent through high-voltage transmission lines under the sea and into Europe’s grid. While visionary, the probability of this happening in the next decade is slim, meanwhile the bill for Europe - which is even more cash-strapped than it is energy-strapped - would be astronomic.

That electricity would replace imported fossil fuels, helping Europe meet its ambitious electrification and climate targets.

The Commissions hopes the EU funding will lure private money to co-invest, mobilizing up to €25 billion of investment in solar, wind, hydrogen, electricity grids and other clean technologies by 2035.

"The EU's bill for fossil fuel imports has increased by over €47 billion in the past 100 days, but not a single molecule of energy in addition," EU energy chief Dan Jørgensen said during a press conference announcing the new initiative on Tuesday.

By 2035, the Commission expects the initiative to support the development of at least 15 gigawatts of new renewable-energy capacity, create more than 100,000 jobs and strengthen electricity interconnections across the Mediterranean. It wasn't clear if the Commission also factored in the astronomic costs such a project would require, or where it would get the funds.

The launch of the initiative, known as T-MED, comes as Europe faces renewed volatility in global energy markets because of the war in Iran. Jørgensen linked the initiative directly to the current crisis, arguing that recent events have once again exposed the risks of relying on fossil fuels.

"Our energy security must be based on electrified energy systems that are based on clean energy, modern grids and increased connectivity," he said.

According to Brussels, North Africa and the Middle East holds around 2,300 gigawatts of renewable-energy potential,  more than twice the EU's current installed capacity. Solar and wind power can be produced 30 to 40 percent more cheaply than in Europe, the Commission estimates.

"Our objective is simply to turn potential into projects, projects into investments and investments into jobs and growth," said Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Šuica during the launch on Tuesday.

Yet the scale of the challenge remains enormous. By the Commission's own estimates the region will require well over €100 billion in investment by the end of the decade to fully exploit its renewable-energy potential. Officials acknowledged Tuesday that the €25 billion target is only a starting point. Meanwhile, as Rabo's Michael Every notes, such a project would require both massive capital as well as Africa not wanting that power for its own economy, not to mention an EU ability to physically protect such installations in a region plagued by Islamist attacks and Russian influence in places. "That could therefore cost more than €100bn."

The Commission hopes a new T-MED investment platform, due to become operational in September, will help bridge that gap by bringing together governments, development banks, project developers and private investors. At the same time, Brussels plans to push partner countries to simplify permitting procedures, improve grid access and strengthen regulatory frameworks in order to make projects more attractive to investors, which of course will be critical since the project would have to be funded with new debt. Lots of debt.

The initiative resembles a strategy Europe has pursued before. More than a decade ago, the Desertec project sought to harness North African solar power and export it to Europe. Despite early enthusiasm, the project ultimately ended up as a - pardon the pun - flaming disaster amid political uncertainty, financing challenges and concerns over the cost of new infrastructure.

Similar projects in other parts of the world have also collapsed: the Sun Cable project, for example, which promised to power Singapore with Australian sunlight via what would have been the longest undersea power cable in the world, was a flop.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 04:15

Merkel Receives The First European Order Of Merit Award, Repeats Call For Crackdown On Free Speech

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The European Union recently announced the first recipients of its new European Order of Merit, the organization’s highest award. The headliner was Angela Merkel, former Federal Chancellor of Germany, who indeed personifies the European Union for both her fans and her critics. For many years, some of us have criticized Merkel as one of the leading forces behind European censorship efforts that have eviscerated the “Indispensable Right.” 

Not surprisingly, Merkel called for more censorship and attacks on free speech to a thrilled audience of EU bureaucrats and globalists.

In one of the most ironic moments, Merkel declared, “Europe was not handed to us. It was built treaty by treaty, crisis by crisis and by people who chose solidarity over division and cooperation over self-interest.” Indeed, it was not handed to them.

As I discuss in my new book, “Rage and the Republic, the EU was formed by design to incrementally get citizens in Europe to give up their national identities and rights:

The EEC worked to remove barriers to trade and coordinate national regulations to achieve greater uniformity. As nations conformed to such transnational standards, the final step toward transnational governance became less of a conceptual barrier for citizens, particularly younger citizens…

…The evolution of the EU is a cautionary tale. It began with assurances of marginal coordinating bodies and policies over areas like nuclear power and scientific research. Through this planned incrementalism, each insular move was defended on its narrow purpose while dismissing objections as nationalistic or conspiratorial. That planned incrementalism worked brilliantly in getting citizens to accept transnational governance.

Merkel was critical in that effort. She is blamed for opening the borders to a flood of undocumented immigrants that has caused rising violence and protests throughout Europe. However, her crowning jewel was the crackdown on free speech. She can honestly claim that Germans (and Europeans as a whole) have fewer rights after her public service. She increased the power of government, stripped away free speech rights, and reduced national identities without firing a shot.

Merkel consistently opposed free speech, building a censorship system that gave the government ever greater control over speech. Her decision to first apologize to authoritarian Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for a satirical poem and then approve the prosecution of the comedian is a shocking and chilling disgrace. Now, she is throwing her support behind a crackdown on “hate speech” on social media like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube — radically expanding the already broad scope of government regulation of speech.

Merkel declared, “I support efforts by Justice Minister Heiko Maas and Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere to address hate speech, hate commentaries, devastating things that are incompatible with human dignity, and to do everything to prohibit it because it contradicts our values.”

Merkel was a driving force in using such subjective standards as “compatibility with human dignity” as a foundation for government-imposed speech controls.

Merkel also threatened social media companies, warning they would face a government crackdown if they failed to get rid of “fake news.” Merkel insisted that such postings must be dealt with by the companies or the government will step in.

In her speech in May to the EU, Merkel doubled down on her attacks on free speech as a threat to the world order. She called for the prosecution of  American companies for spreading “disinformation” and “hate” online.

She denounced the “so-called social media” platforms as still not facing “accountability for lies.” She added, “I can only encourage you to continue regulating social media.”

I could think of no better recipient for the first European Order of Merit. No one better sums up EU values than Angela Merkel and her unrelenting campaign against free speech. For globalists who have called for “A New World Order with European Values,” Merkel is the perfect personification of a globalist dream of a world of regulated speech and transnational government.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 03:30

Poland Won't Stand In The Way Of Ukraine's EU Bid, Despite Relations Hitting Rock Bottom

Poland will not obstruct the commencement of negotiations regarding Ukraine's accession to the European Union, but Warsaw remains firmly opposed to granting any preferential treatment to Kyiv, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has told journalists.

Relations between the two Eastern European allies have reached crisis-mode of late, after President Volodymyr Zelensky named an elite special operations unit after "UPA Heroes" - to denote a high honor for battlefield performance.

For Warsaw, uplifting this name is tantamount to backing the genocide against the Polish people:

For Poland, the UPA, or the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, is responsible for a campaign of genocidal ethnic cleansing in the 1940s that resulted in the deaths of an estimated 100,000 Polish civilians in Volhynia (known as Volyn in Ukrainian and Wołyń in Polish), a historic region with deep Polish and Ukrainian roots. This violence also systematically targeted Jewish survivors who had escaped the Holocaust.

Amid the diplomatic dispute sparked by the renaming, the Polish government is still promising not to let the issue steer its thinking on Ukraine's aspirations to join the European Union. It is pledging to remain objective related to examining Ukraine's status.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk specifically pledge before reporters this week that his government will not use the WW2 issue to block the start of EU negotiations centered on Ukraine.

"We are not going to trade our support for [European] ambitions of Ukraine," Tusk stated. According to more background:

The Prime Minister was responding to a reporter's question about whether Warsaw intended to block the accession talks following recent decisions by Volodymyr Zelenskyy to glorify historical followers of Stepan Bandera.

Despite the diplomatic friction, Tusk emphasized that Warsaw would maintain a strict, standard approach to the accession process.

"Nevertheless, there will be no special terms from our side. Poland will support Ukraine on its path to Europe on terms that will be European, as well as safe and beneficial for Poland," Tusk added.

🔴Poles' Reaction to "Heroes of the UPA" is an act of Cain

Yuriy Mykhalchyshyn — an educator within the Azov-rooted 3rd Assault Brigade whose callsign is "Nachtigall" (after the Abwehr battalion formed from the OUN in 1941) — described Polish outrage over awarding a military… pic.twitter.com/kxXat3M3in

— Marta Havryshko (@HavryshkoMarta) June 7, 2026

Poland also has other pressing concerns, not the least of which is the immigration and war refugee issue. Poland has throughout over four years of the Ukraine war had to absorb hundreds of thousands of refugees and war-displaced families.

A future where Ukraine could become part of the EU might prove a major drain on Poland's own struggling economy and resources.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 02:45

After Horrific Belfast Migrant Knife Attack, U.K. Officials Think The Problem Is X

Authored by Monica Showalter via American Thinker,

Northern Ireland went up in flames as angry Irish mobs rioted in the streets and burned down publicly funded migrant housing complexes last night.

The spark that set it off was a migrant who tried to behead a resident.

This is the attack in living color, which was posted on X:

Tekijä: Hadi Alodid, sudanilainen turvapaikanhakija

Video tapahtuneesta: pic.twitter.com/XLHbgMxRCo

- Roni Arvonen (@RoniArvonen) June 10, 2026

Mob action is never desirable but the anger was predictable, as the details were worse than they looked: An innocent Scotish resident, Stephen Ogilvy, who is partially deaf, was helping a Sudanese 'asylum seeker' move into his residence. The migrant, Hadi Alodid, had entered the country in 2023 and got a five-year pass to seek 'asylum.' For unknown reasons, the migrant grabbed Ogilvy, began slashing him with a knife, gouging out one eye and severely damaging the other, slashed his knife all over Ogilvy's face, and then began to cut Ogilvy's head off in the street. He was intercepted by locals, one of whom hit him over the head with a shovel, saving Ogilvy's life. Ogilvy's alive, but gets to go through life not just nearly deaf, but nearly blind, too.

Coming on the heels of the Henry Nowak murder by a migrant-involved person, along with the bad police response, and it was too much for many in Belfast.

The riots that followed were the result of the state which failed to protect the people from uninvited barbarians who repaid kindness with savagery and who exhibited little consideration for the victims.

Brendan O'Neill, who's a heckuva good writer, sums it up this way at Sp!ked:

Yes, only the blood-stained degenerate bears responsibility for the horrors inflicted on that innocent man. But we now know the piece of scum had an army of witless aiders and abetters. There lurks in the background of this abomination a whole regime of complicity. The wilfully oblivious technocrats who have overseen the withering of our borders. The spineless legal system that refuses to remove people who should not be here. The virtue-hoarding activist class that agitates for the right of every 'asylum seeker' to stay, because they cherish the spotlight of self-righteousness far more than they do the safety of working-class men and women. None of them wielded the knife, no; but all helped to pave the way for that reprobate's presence in Belfast.

Isn't there now a case against officialdom of reckless endangerment? Every week there are reports of horrifying rapes carried out by illegal immigrants. Working-class women and girls have suffered sickening abuse at the hands of men who came on small boats under the noses of our apathetic, cowardly rulers. People have been murdered, too. From the alleged rape gang overseen by Afghan nationals in Norwich to last night's demented bloodletting in Belfast - when are we allowed to say this is all the bitter harvest of state failure, the predictable outcome of refusing to get a handle on who is coming here and why?

But the response of the state was utterly repulsive.

Officials expressed umbrage about the news getting out, not the migrant problem and the state that had ushered them in.

Their fury was concentrated almost solely on the reacting rioters, who were branded 'racists' as they always are, instead of the underlying crime - notice that the U.K. legislator shows no 'horrified' sentiment about the crime, just the resulting disorder:

🇬🇧 A single knife attack in Belfast cost a man his left eye and set off a night of city-wide violence and unrest.

Hadi Alodid, 30, has been charged with attempted murder.

PM Starmer addressed the resulting unrest in Belfast at PMQs, calling the disorder "completely... https://t.co/9pDVq3bmgT

- Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 10, 2026

I am horrified by the disorder and racist violence in Belfast last night.

Far too often now, we see extremists exploiting people's anger and grief to spread hatred and violence - with the help of divisive algorithms on social media.

This has to stop.

- Ed Davey (@EdwardJDavey) June 10, 2026

Then they tried to cover it up by shutting the family up.

These crimes and bad responses from officials are now so frequent the British public believes it knows what's going on:

100% written by the government.

Nobody refers to their own family member as "loved one" pic.twitter.com/uGOhWB8Zui

- Kevin MacLean (Fortress of Lugh) (@FortressLugh) June 10, 2026

It took the nudge unit a day, but they got to them in the end. https://t.co/025qI3NWVO

- Gary McLeeve. (@GaryMcleft) June 10, 2026

Nudge unit. In the U.K., they have them.

After that, they blamed Elon Musk, who owns X:

🚨KEIR STARMER COMMITS TO CRACK DOWN ON X

Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey says it's "NOT FREE SPEECH"

Starmer agrees and says we need to crack down on X for whipping up violence

These people are insane
They're authoritarian and dangerous
They must be removed from power pic.twitter.com/mnC1VtJdWG

- Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) June 10, 2026

The scenes we saw in Belfast yesterday were horrific, and people are right to be concerned.

The Government must take action against tech billionaires like Elon Musk, who control the divisive and harmful social media algorithms that are inciting violence and hatred. pic.twitter.com/aBBcPUYzSH

- Ed Davey (@EdwardJDavey) June 10, 2026

Including the media intelligentsia:

24 hours after footage of an African man trying to saw the head off his Scottish victim in a Belfast street circulated online, Irish politicians and journalists openly discuss on live TV how such videos can be suppressed, in future.
We're going down a dark road. #TonightVMT pic.twitter.com/oDWSYiOVxw

- 243Cal 🇮🇪 (@243_cal) June 9, 2026

Because what's shown on X does mess up their narrative - innocent migrant, racist Irish locals - and shames the press for its obeisance to the powers that be.

The only reason we're hearing about this Belfast horror is because it flooded X first

Had X not existed - much to Labour's desire - the story would not reach MSM

This is why Starmer & Co Hate X and Musk

THEY CANNOT CONTROL THE NARRATIVE 🇬🇧

- Essex Patriot (@Essex_Patriot) June 9, 2026

There may have been a second migrant involved in the attack, too, which certainly wouldn't have come from the press - it's slowly coming out on X, too. That shames them.

It also exposed the elites' bizarre priorities as to who gets into the country:

I am banned from entering the United Kingdom because I have been deemed to be "not conducive to the public good".

The Sudanese migrant who literally was cutting a man's head off in the middle of the street in Belfast was given refugee status and full financial benefits by the...

- Joey Mannarino (@JoeyMannarino) June 10, 2026

It's a Europe-wide problem and it keeps happening over and over. This one, meanwhile, is emerging from Italy.

Outrage in Italy as an Albanian man was almost beheaded by a North African gang for defending an elderly man during a robbery.

The North Africans entered a restaurant in Fermo and began harassing an elderly Italian man, demanding money.

The Albanian noticed what was happening... pic.twitter.com/n0YriWUHT2

- Dr. Maalouf (@realMaalouf) June 10, 2026

Like the Irish, the Albanians often have their own ways of solving problems, so it's a case worth watching.

The bottom line here is that it isn't just a few bad apples among the migrant communities, it's large numbers of them, with outrageous incidents happening over and over now. The public has seen its candidates banned and demonized for questioning the system, so it's very difficult to change it to get a responsive government that promotes what the public wants. We even see that behavior in the U.S., as we can recall the many ways the left tried to disqualify President Trump from winning his current term.

What it underlines is that there is a massive, evil deep entrenched state everywhere with interests in replacing the population with criminal migrants. The Irish are rebelling, at least temporarily, as the riots die down. But they are awakened. And one wonders how long these matters will just stay temporary matters with a government as unwilling to change its ways as the U.K. The trouble seen is their doing.

Image: X screenshot

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 02:00

Putin Powerfully Rebuffed The Hawks Who Want Him To Attack NATO

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

In his words, talk about Russia attacking NATO “is not simply nonsense; it is a provocation.”

Several top “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” (NRPR) influencers rang the alarm last month about Russia’s alleged plans to attack NATO, which were inspired by top hawk Sergey Karaganov and then Russian Ambassador to the OSCE Dmitry Polyanskiy ominously channeling his rhetoric. Readers can review examples of their warnings here, here, here, here, and here. Casual NRPRs therefore braced themselves for what would have in that scenario almost certainly been the start of World War III had it come to pass.

It obviously hasn’t and it likely won’t ever, however, judging by Putin’s response when he was recently asked about these alleged plans during a meeting with foreign journalists. In his words, “Why would Russia attack Europe or go to war with NATO? What would be the purpose? As I have said before, these claims are not merely nonsense. In my view, they are a deliberate provocation designed to create the impression of a threat that does not actually exist.”

Putin then elaborated that “The objective is to persuade their populations to increase defence spending and, as a first step, to pay for the regime that seized power in Kiev. That, I believe, is the real explanation. It is not simply nonsense; it is a provocation. What surprises me, however, is that some people in European countries appear to believe it. I find that astonishing. The whole notion is simply absurd. It would be amusing if it were not so sad.”

It’s not just “some people in European countries” who “appear to believe it”, but his own top hawk is championing this policy and it was recently amplified to the max by top NRPR influencers, many of whom can be described as “state-adjacent” due to being platformed by publicly financed media, attending government-organized conferences, and/or taking state-secured tours of Donbass.

Casual NRPRs are therefore left to wonder whether Putin is telling the truth or is “psyching out the West”.

It’s always best to defer to what Putin himself says in such cases whenever confusion arises, which is due to top NRPR influencers practicing what’s been called “Potemkinism”, or the creation of “alternative realities” about Russian interests and policy for “strategic purposes” (whatever they might be). The most infamous example is that Putin is an anti-Zionist secretly allied with Iran against Israel despite him being a proud lifelong philo-Semite as proven by his many quotes to this end from the official Kremlin website.

Accordingly, while it would be inaccurate describe the fiercely loyal Karaganov as a “provocateur” in the spirit of how Putin condemned such folks who advocate for Russia to attack NATO, he nevertheless powerfully rebuffed hawks such as him as well as the top NRPR influencers who hyped up his rhetoric. That said, Russia’s foreign spy service did indeed warn last month that their country might carry out retaliatory strikes against Latvia if Ukraine launches drones from there, which should be taken seriously.

That’s altogether different than what Karaganov has been pushing for, namely a first strike against NATO that could easily spiral into World War III, and it’s important for casual NRPRs to understand this. As Putin himself phrased it, such talk “is not simply nonsense; it is a provocation.” When those on Russia’s side do it, no matter what their intentions might be, they inadvertently “persuade [Westerners] to increase defence spending and, as a first step, to pay for the regime that seized power in Kiev.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 23:25

As Spy Law Nears Expiration, Lawmakers Mull Short-Term Renewal

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump’s pick for a key intelligence post has left Democrats and Republicans at odds over a spy law set to lapse on June 12.

As the clock ticks down, lawmakers are contemplating Trump’s latest proposal: another short-term extension of the authority while the president searches for a permanent nominee other than his chosen acting director of national intelligence, Bill Pulte.

Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) allows the government to spy on foreign targets outside the United States.

It has long been controversial, in part because Americans can also be caught up in its warrantless surveillance dragnet. Section 702’s defenders stress its importance to national security, the risks of allowing it to expire, and the strength of the 2024 reforms to the program.

The provision was renewed in late April for a period of 45 days as some lawmakers pushed for reforms to the law.

Also in late April, the House passed a three-year renewal of the spy law with some reforms, though without new warrant requirements.

Democrats raised concerns with re-upping it after Trump selected Pulte as acting director of national intelligence (DNI).

Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and a close Trump ally, is set to replace outgoing DNI Tulsi Gabbard on June 19 while retaining his other duties.

Acting appointments do not require Senate confirmation—but Democrats and some Republicans in the Senate appeared less than enthusiastic about the selection after Trump announced it on June 2.

When asked about Pulte on June 2, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who lost the GOP Senate primary to Trump-backed Ken Paxton, told reporters, “I see no evidence of any qualifications for that job.”

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) speaks at a rally for his Senate primary campaign in Austin, Texas, on Feb. 17, 2026. Nathan Worcester/The Epoch Times

That same day, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, declined to comment on Pulte’s fitness for the position when asked about him.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), ranking member of the intelligence committee, voiced shock and disapproval of Trump’s selection at a June 2 hearing, noting that Pulte lacked experience in law enforcement, the military, and other relevant domains.

He also warned that the pick could undermine public confidence in Section 702.

On June 5, almost all Senate Democrats, joined by some Republicans, blocked a measure to renew the provision.

With the Pulte controversy brewing, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) met with Trump at the White House on June 9. Johnson’s staff confirmed the meeting to The Epoch Times but did not elaborate on what was discussed.

On June 10, Trump laid out a new path forward on Truth Social.

“I am asking Congress to send me a short-term extension of FISA to provide time for the selection and confirmation of a permanent head of the agency,” the president wrote.

Some Senate Democrats continued to express concern about Pulte and Trump’s plan.

Warner told reporters he was not sure if there were enough votes to advance a short-term extension of the authority.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) speaks at a campaign event for Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate former Rep. Abigail Spanberger at H Mart in Centreville, Va. on Nov. 2, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) told reporters he would “listen to Senator Warner, adding that the choice of Pulte was “the best way to sabotage [Section] 702.”

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a frequent critic of Section 702, told The Epoch Times he had not seen Trump’s proposal, adding, “There’s no votes for this bill while Bill Pulte is still on the job.”

Yet, some key Democrats and aligned lawmakers signaled more optimism.

Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), who is expected to succeed outgoing Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) in leadership, told reporters he was open to a short-term extension. He said he doesn’t anticipate the provision will lapse on June 12.

Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), an independent who caucuses with Democrats, told reporters a short-term extension could pass muster with him if it came with a clear timeline.

However, he said he would have issues with Pulte staying in the role “for an indefinite period.”

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told The Epoch Times he had no problems with Pulte.

“If he wants him to be acting as short-term [DNI], that’s fine,“ he said. ”If he wants to nominate him permanently, that’s fine by me.”

Hawley told reporters he would not raise opposition to a short-term extension of the authority.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 22:35

The SAVE America Act Hits A Milestone, Does It Have Momentum Now?

The SAVE America Act remains in limbo, but it achieved a critical milestone during a late-night vote-a-rama to advance the GOP’s $70 billion immigration enforcement package, when Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) switched her vote. That means the only thing preventing it from becoming law is the 60-vote threshold in the Senate.

The legislation, formally titled the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility Act, would require proof of U.S. citizenship at voter registration and a valid photo ID to cast a ballot in federal elections. It cleared the House months ago and has sat in the Senate since, caught between a Republican majority that supports it and a 60-vote cloture threshold that has become its ceiling.

Despite the filibuster standing in its way, reports suggest that meeting the 50-vote threshold to pass has given the legislation new momentum.

The path to 50 came through Sen. Mike Lee's (R-Utah) amendment, which used the bill's original, unmodified form as passed by the House. An earlier attempt by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) to attach a modified version that included additional provisions, such as barring men from competing in women's sports, fell short when four Republicans defected. Sens. Collins, Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) all voted against the Graham version. Collins switched her vote on Lee's amendment and provided the crucial 50th yes vote.

“51 votes for the SAVE America Act during tonight’s budget reconciliation vote-a-rama,” Lee said in a post on X during the session.

“That means that but for the Zombie Filibuster, the House-passed SAVE America Act would now be on its way to the White House for President Trump’s signature.”

The Zombie Filibuster he references is the modern mutation of a once-demanding procedural tool that required senators to physically hold the floor with hours of continuous speech. Today, any senator can invoke it with a single objection; legislation dies unless it clears 60 votes, and no one has to say a word.

Lee and a bloc of conservatives have pressed Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) to force a talking filibuster, requiring Democrats to hold the floor continuously until they run out of steam and the bill advances by a simple majority. However, Thune has so far declined. 

Thune’s concern is that a sustained floor fight and a flood of Democratic amendments could fracture the Republican conference or cause collateral damage to other pieces of Trump's agenda. It is a calculated bet that the bill's supporters find increasingly difficult to accept.

The filibuster has taken a huge toll on the productivity of the U.S. Senate. Congress is on pace to enact less legislation in this two-year session than at any point since Barack Obama's presidency. According to GovTrack, just 97 bills became law across the two most recent Republican-controlled Congresses, compared to 274 during the 118th Congress. The last time the number sank this low was the 112th Congress. 

Yet, the battle inside the chamber bears almost no relationship to where the country stands on the SAVE America Act. A Harvard-Harris poll from earlier this year found broad public support for the SAVE America Act, with 71% of Americans supporting the legislation, including 69% of independents and even 50% of Democrats. Support for its key provisions is even stronger: 81% favor requiring voter ID, 75% support proof of citizenship to vote, and 80% want states to remove non-citizens from voter rolls. Perhaps most striking, 85% of Americans—including 84% of independents and 82% of Democrats—agree that only U.S. citizens should be allowed to vote in federal elections. Overall, 60% view the bill as a commonsense measure to prevent fraud and safeguard election integrity.

Trump has directed his frustration at Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth Macdonough, who ruled the SAVE America Act ineligible for inclusion in the GOP's $70 billion immigration enforcement package under the Byrd Rule, which governs what legislation qualifies for budget reconciliation at a 50-vote threshold. 

Trump has called on Thune to remove her. 

"Just the other night, as an example, she ruled against us on a proposal that would have easily been approved, and should have been, by anyone else," Trump posted. He followed with a sharper message on Truth Social: "We have every right to change her, and should do so, IMMEDIATELY," Trump wrote, adding, "As long as she's there, we will never get our desperately needed, SAVE AMERICA ACT, approved, and put into full force and effect!" 

Thune dismissed the pressure as routine.

"That's not a new request, as you all know," Thune said of Trump's demand, "and as is typically the case, the parliamentarian, the rulings break both ways. And, you know, we lose a few, we win a few, but that's been true when Democrats have been in the majority, too."

Collins, who provided the decisive 50th vote on Lee's amendment, has previously stated she will not support eliminating the filibuster, and it’s unlikely she’ll change her mind on that with her facing a tough reelection bid this year. But reaching the 50-vote threshold to pass the upper chamber is a modest victory that could change the debate going forward.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 22:10

New Arizona Law Targets Demand Behind Prostitution, Sex Trafficking

Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times,

Arizona has enacted a law that increases penalties for people who buy or attempt to buy sex, and directs new funding to services for victims of sex trafficking.

Under the law, paying, agreeing to pay, or offering to pay for sexual conduct is now a felony offense and carries mandatory jail time. Offenders must also pay a $200 assessment, with all proceeds dedicated to programs that assist trafficking survivors.

A first offense can result in up to 15 days in jail, while a second offense carries up to 30 days.

“Arizona is going after the demand that fuels prostitution and sex trafficking,” said state Rep. Selina Bliss, chairman of the House Health and Human Services Committee, in a June 8 statement.

“This is a victory for families, neighborhoods, and victims who deserve a path out,“ Bliss, who co-sponsored the bill, added. ”The people paying for sex are funding an industry that traffickers exploit, and communities across Arizona are left to deal with the crime, abuse, and damage that follow.

“This law holds offenders accountable, puts money directly toward helping victims recover, and puts every person who pays for sex in Arizona on notice: you can face jail time, a felony record, and the consequences that come with it.”

House Bill 2720 also expands protections for trafficking victims. Courts must seal records tied to prostitution convictions that are later vacated because the individual was a victim of sex trafficking. Supporters say the change will help survivors pursue jobs, housing, and other opportunities without the burden of a criminal record.

Lawmakers said the bill was developed with input from local officials, advocacy organizations, neighborhood groups, schools, and residents seeking stronger action against prostitution and sex trafficking.

Parts of Phoenix, including a three-mile corridor known as “The Blade,” have long been associated with street prostitution. In 2025, the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office filed 437 prostitution-related cases, fueling debate between law enforcement officials and advocates who argue that many people arrested for prostitution are trafficking victims rather than willing participants.

A 2015–2016 study by Arizona State University found evidence that sex trafficking in Arizona had grown substantially over the previous 15 years.

Researchers noted, however, that the increase could have reflected both a rise in victimization and greater public awareness and enforcement efforts.

In Arizona, prostitution is classified as a Class 1 misdemeanor, punishable by up to six months in jail, a $2,500 fine, and as much as three years of probation, according to AZDefenders.com.

Related offenses include solicitation, pandering, facilitating prostitution, and child prostitution.

Escort services remain legal under Arizona law, provided no sexual acts are offered or exchanged for compensation.

Arizona is home to two federally funded human trafficking task forces—the Southern Arizona Anti-Trafficking Unified Response Network and the Central Arizona United to Stop Exploitation Task Force—as well as the City of Phoenix Human Trafficking Task Force and the Governor’s Human Trafficking Council. Together, they work to raise awareness, identify victims, and expand support services for survivors.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 21:45

SoftBank Attempt To Get Downsized $6 Billion OpenAi Margin Loan Stalls

One month ago, Japanese tech giant SoftBank Group, was forced to downsize plans for a $10 billion margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake after facing hesitation from some creditors. Today, it couldn't even get that done after talks with potential creditors to raise the downsized $6 billion stalled amid rising concerns about the collateral value, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter. 

As a result, the company is now considering various different fundraising options, although it could still move forward with the margin loan at a later stage, they added.

It’s unclear why the margin loan discussions stalled. SoftBank had allegedly secured some $5 billion for the loan before the development, although it was unclear if those were verbal or written commitments. Judging by the outcome, the commitments were tenuous at bet. 

According to the report, the current inaction on the margin loan comes even after some of the potential lenders who had been pitched on it - and who did not view it in an all too favorable light to start - said that they’d started to consider it in a more favorable light, after news last month that the ChatGPT creator was preparing to file for an initial public offering.

Previously some of the potential creditors pitched on the margin loan had expressed concerns about the difficulty of reaching a valuation for an unlisted company like OpenAI. As noted above, SoftBank downsized the loan’s initial target size by 40% after facing pushback from some of the potential lenders. 

“The margin loan is just one piece of a much larger puzzle, and unless we see a clear deterioration in their ability to raise funds this way, we don’t view it as a standalone red flag,” said Hua Cheng, head of Asia credit research at AllianceBernstein. “The best‑case scenario is an OpenAI IPO this year, with SoftBank offloading part of its stake to pay down debt. That would be consistent with what credit investors want.”

OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO in the US, joining artificial intelligence rivals in tapping public markets to fund ambitious growth plans. The firm is working with Goldman  and Morgan Stanley on a potential listing as soon as in the fall. 

Loan aside, markets have witnessed a broader debate in recent months about SoftBank’s commitments of more than $60 billion to OpenAI at a time when recent breakthroughs by resurgent rival Anthropic PBC have raised doubts for some investors about the business. Within SoftBank itself, some officials had grown anxious about that commitment, according to Bloomberg.

Never one to back down, Masa Son - who nearly went broke after the dot com bubble burst - has been ramping up its broader AI plans. Late last month, it said that SoftBank plans to invest as much as €75 billion - which it does not have - to build artificial intelligence data center capacity in France, saying the country is poised to become a top European hub for AI infrastructure (narrator: it's not). 

But storm clouds are gathering again for Masa: looming in the background is a $40 billion bridge financing that supported the conglomerate’s investments in OpenAI, and which SoftBank must repay in March 2027. SoftBank has said that borrowing would likely be repaid “through the utilization of existing assets and other financing measures.”

While SoftBank has a number of potential fundraising options, it’s unclear if it would opt to use any of them. Those include potential issuance of more bonds, or possibly borrowing against other listed holdings in its portfolio, although if it can't get a margin loan against its portfolio crown jewel, one wonders what terms its other assets would garner. Its stakes include ones in Arm Holdings and Intel, whose shares have jumped 197% and 192%, respectively, so far this year amid the AI boom. 

Following the news, Softbank shares tumbled as much as 9.7% Wednesday. Even after declines, SoftBank’s stock was still up about 45% for the period, extending gains in recent weeks after the company reported a jump in quarterly profit due largely to valuation gains on its OpenAI investment. On June 1, SoftBank overtook Toyota Motor Corp. as Japan’s most valuable company by market capitalization. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 21:31

JPM Says US Defense Base Faces 'Evolve Or Die' Moment As Warfare Forever Changes

For several quarters, we have described the Trump administration's massive push to reshape the military-industrial complex, from DOGE-driven efforts inside the Department of War to reset the procurement process, to a broader pivot toward fast-moving "war unicorns," like Anduril, rather than bloated legacy defense primes.

The urgency of that transition is now capturing Wall Street's attention. JPMorgan analysts frame it as a major inflection point: America's defense industrial base must shift away from slow-moving, costly production and toward one built around speed, scale, technology, low-cost, attritable systems, and rapid battlefield iteration to preserve America's status as the world's dominant military power. 

Analyst Jahangir Aziz pointed out: 

The U.S. defense-industrial enterprise now stands at a decisive inflection point.

Success in the era ahead will be determined by its ability to deliver on three tightly interlocking imperatives: integrating the defense and commercial industrial bases, unlocking genuine mass-scale production, and unleashing innovation across the entire ecosystem.

Together, these are the enabling conditions for a force capable of meeting the relentless operational and technological pressures revealed in Ukraine, exposed by China's fusion model, and only latently present in the U.S. system today.

Aziz wrote that the post-Cold War model, centered on highly capable systems such as the F-35 stealth fighters, aircraft carriers, and advanced missile platforms, has been rendered obsolete in a world defined by China's anti-access strategy, Russia's war in Ukraine, the Iran conflict, suicide drones, cyber warfare, electronic warfare, and other low-cost precision weapons.

He said that modern warfare is increasingly defined by the ability to "sense, make sense, and act," relying on the processing of vast amounts of data and translating it into timely decisions. Such as AI 'kill chains'… 

The four major vulnerabilities in the U.S. defense industrial base that he outlined include shallow supplier depth, slow acquisition timelines, prime-contractor concentration, and fragile global supply chains, including exposure to China-linked inputs.

U.S. Defense Base Supply Chain 

He warned that major defense programs can take years to field, while critical electronics may be obsolete before they ever reach the modern battlefield.

U.S. Military's procurement process timeline

Capacity constraints notable among the primes

That lag has become a major problem as modern warfare quickly evolves across Eurasia and the Middle East, from Ukraine to the Gulf, where drones, robotics, electronic warfare, and AI-enabled kill chains are transforming how conflicts are fought. The battlefield of the 2030s will be defined less by slow-cycle platforms and more by high-speed, low-cost, increasingly automated weapons.

For the U.S. military to remain dominant on the global stage, the analyst laid out a clear framework for how that advantage must be secured: 

Our broader take, however, is that the direction of travel is likely to be shaped by the following factors. First, as mentioned, the nature of war has changed and communication and control capabilities will be fundamental in the digital age. Second, that successful defense industrial bases elsewhere, each in their own way, have largely based their success on the integration of their defense and commercial industrial bases. Third, and related to the two above, the U.S. possesses a technological edge in the digital space that is largely in the commercial sector, and integrating it into the defense ecosystem is crucial for the U.S. to maintain its military dominance.

To maintain military dominance, the U.S. defense base must secure enduring advantages by:

• Integration: Forge deeper links between defense and commercial sectors, leveraging shared platforms, open standards, and continuous feedback.

• Scale: Build modular, manufacturable systems for rapid mass production, lower barriers for new entrants, and foster a networked industrial base.

• Innovation: Drive software-led transformation, iterative hardware development, and commercial digital integration. Emerging tech leaders are reshaping autonomy, hypersonics, advanced manufacturing, satellite communications, and mission resilience.

• Policy reforms like NDAA and Modular Open Systems Architecture (MOSA) are promising, but must overcome entrenched acquisition processes, PPBE constraints, and persistent friction over intellectual property and data rights—barriers that can either enable competition and modularity or reinforce vendor lock-in and exclude new entrants.

America's defense industrial base stands at a crossroads. Adapting to persistent competition, rapid technological change, and mass-scale attrition warfare is not optional; it's essential. Enduring advantage will depend on integrating commercial and defense sectors, scaling production, and accelerating innovation, while dismantling deep-seated institutional and structural barriers. Failure to act risks eroding deterrence and long-term military effectiveness, with consequences for national security and global leadership.

None of this should surprise readers. We have repeatedly highlighted the rise of "war unicorns" such as Anduril and other defense-tech startups that are building affordable, scalable, and software-defined weapons systems for the modern battlefield.

pic.twitter.com/maeU5jrpDv

— Palmer Luckey (@PalmerLuckey) May 9, 2026

Beyond Anduril in the war unicorn sphere, there's DZYNE Technologies developing autonomous defense systems... 

BLITZ (Attritable System)

🇺🇸 DZYNE Technologies unveiled BLITZ, a low-cost and fully autonomous Group | UAS platform. A modular system light enough for hand launch, rail launch or containerized launch such as BlitzBox.

"The Blitz platform features a foldable, packable design… pic.twitter.com/llQxsZRBEt

— Counter Unmanned Systems (@CUAS_NEWS) May 15, 2026

Anduril's rapid ascent has already captured Wall Street's attention. Goldman analysts recently sat down with company executives to better understand the story, the business model, and the role Anduril could play in the next phase of rebuilding America's next-generation defense-industrial base. The takeaway is increasingly clear: the future of U.S. military power will not be defined by legacy primes alone, but by war unicorns.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 21:20

California Gets 80% Of All Federal Cash For Illegal Immigrant Families: Report

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

California is home to the lion’s share of illegal immigrant families in the United States with children who received federal welfare assistance in 2024, according to a federal report published on June 10.

More than 80 percent of all nationwide cash assistance allocated to such households was spent in California. The report tracked $759 million in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) spent in 2024 on families headed by a parent living in the country illegally.

In those cases, the child qualified for federal welfare, even though the parent was excluded from the federal program because of immigration status.

“These cases receive relatively little public attention, yet ... data show that they are far from a negligible part of the program,” wrote authors David Swegle, director of the Office of Family Assistance at the Administration for Children and Families under the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and Alex J. Adams, assistant secretary at the Administration for Children and Families, in the report.

Nationally, the federal government paid 85,000 households with qualifying children receiving assistance who were living with their illegal immigrant parents in the U.S. in 2024.

“Although the benefit is formally paid on behalf of the child, it still supports a household that includes an immigration-status-ineligible parent,” the authors stated. “The significance of these cases therefore cannot be judged solely by the fact that the adult is not the formal recipient.”

The cases are also significant because they don’t have to adhere to the TANF rules requiring work expectations, such as regularly applying for jobs, and the payments aren’t limited to the federal 60-month lifetime limit, according to the report. The illegal immigrant families, therefore, can receive federal welfare until the child turns 18 years old.

Low-income American families are held to the federal welfare restrictions that require work participation and are restricted to a 60-month lifetime limit, the authors said.

The number of TANF cases involving an illegal immigrant parent reached nearly 850,000—or 10 percent of all cases—in 2024, up from nearly 6 percent in 2001.

Of those, nearly 78,000 households—or about 91 percent—also received federal food assistance through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the report revealed.

Most of the illegal immigrant parents—over 106,000—identified as Hispanic, while 5.3 percent were White, 4.3 percent were Black, and 2 percent were Asian, the report stated.

California was the primary driver of the national totals, according to the report.

In 2024, the state accounted for nearly 60,000 affected households, or about 70 percent of the national total of the illegal immigrant-headed households.

The state’s annual cash assistance paid to those homes reached about $618 million, or about 81 percent of nationwide spending on these cases, the authors reported.

The average monthly benefit in California for child-only households with illegal immigrant parents increased from an estimated $408 in 2013 to $875 in 2024—an increase of 114.5 percent, according to the report.

“No other state approached California’s combination of scale, concentration, and fiscal impact,” the authors stated in the report.

The next-largest states were New York, with about 7,635 households and about $47.5 million in annual cash assistance, followed by Massachusetts at about 3,777 households and about $27.3 million, and Washington at about 1,796 households and about $12.2 million, the report found.

From 2001 to 2024, the U.S. spent about $18.3 billion in TANF cash assistance on these cases involving illegal immigrant parents with welfare-recipient children, according to the report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 20:55

MSFT Restricts Internal Use Of Claude Fable Over Data-Retention Concerns; BMO Calls Anthropic A Leading Pure-Play AI Lab

Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, a next-generation "Mythos-class" AI model, on Tuesday. The model is designed to restrict dangerous capabilities in areas such as cybersecurity and biological research after CEO Dario Amodei warned about risks last month.

The model gives users access to Anthropic's more powerful Mythos model, which the company had previously deemed too risky for public release last month. However, when users ask about sensitive topics, such as bioweapons or software exploitation, Fable 5 redirects them to the older Claude Opus 4.8 model.

"We maintain that Anthropic is the leading pure-play AI lab, combining best-in-class model intelligence with its cutting-edge, benchmark-leading Claude Fable 5 frontier model released June 9, 2026; with clear commercial traction and momentum in its enterprise offerings," BMO analyst Brian Pitz wrote in a note earlier today.

Pitz noted, "Anthropic's strengths are particularly evident in coding, agents, and enterprise, where Claude has emerged as a leading model powering tools such as Claude Code and Cowork, both of which have scaled rapidly. This reinforces the company's advantage in translating model intelligence beyond benchmark performance into viable, real-world applications—what we view as the next key battleground in AI."

The release of Claude Fable 5 prompted Pitz's team to declare, "While it is too early to crown a winner among foundation models, we see Anthropic and OpenAI as the leading pure-play AI labs today."

The Verge's Tom Warren reported that Claude Fable 5 has already raised security concerns within Microsoft, prompting the tech giant to limit internal employee access to the model due to Anthropic's data-retention requirements.

Warren said that Claude Fable 5 has been rolled out to GitHub Copilot and Foundry customers but is not available in the internal GitHub Copilot model picker used by Microsoft employees. Other Claude models remain available internally because they operate under zero data retention rules.

He said the issue centers around Anthropic's safety architecture. Claude Fable 5 requires Anthropic to retain prompts and outputs for 30 days to operate new safety classifiers, while some flagged content can be stored for up to two years if it violates usage policies. These rules could potentially create risks for confidential information.

Pitz published the current AI leaderboard overview with Anthropic's models on top (but at the time of the note, Claude Fable 5 was not included):

Western AI Models Comparison

BMO analysts see the release of new advanced models driving AI revenue to $1.8 trillion by 2032. That would mean the market has expanded at an average annual growth rate of 48% since ChatGPT launched in 2022.

Token prices have declined over the last six days.

"Adoption is becoming less about what frontier models can do and more about the price... the recent drop in the token index may reflect some of this shift toward cheaper models," Citadel analysts noted (read). 

Token prices down 6 days in a row: longest streak since January.

"Adoption is becoming less about what frontier models can do and more about the price... the recent drop in the token index may reflect some of this shift toward cheaper models"- Citadel https://t.co/n2dQtQ7rqs pic.twitter.com/OOW2uXdedj

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 10, 2026

Prices per million tokens for Western models vs. Chinese models

Tokenmaxxing. 

I hit my usage limits on my $200/month Claude Max subscription in less than 30 minutes and up to 14% in less than a minute as the session resets using Claude Fable 5. pic.twitter.com/lertUFPCC2

— mercury (@mercury_0x) June 9, 2026

Average cost per task.

Claude Fable 5 is now available in Cursor.

It sets a new state of the art on CursorBench at 72.9%, 8 points above the previous best. pic.twitter.com/L3Wm8mSYq9

— Cursor (@cursor_ai) June 9, 2026

What X users have been creating with Claude Fable 5:

Claude 5.0 built a Chinese girl a trading bot.

skip to 0:08 look at her journal, bot easily earns your monthly salary in a couple of days.

how it works:

the bot runs mean reversion on s&p 500 and nasdaq on 15-min candles, catching the small overextensions indices make every… https://t.co/V2R3gRNXTA pic.twitter.com/iRVgo1jdYF

— AdiiX (@adiix_official) June 9, 2026

Claude 5 Fable (high)

“Make a Minecraft clone”

I’m stunned.. it made this in 20 minutes, one shot.

Multiple Biomes, day time/night time, different ores, Caves & more! pic.twitter.com/jfiGsalxvx

— Chris (@ChrissGPT) June 9, 2026

Wow Claude Fable 5 is insane!!

I just created GTA 6 in ONE prompt so i don't have to wait anymore to play it

Prompt: make gta 6

It over for game studios now. pic.twitter.com/eKSx0PRTJ2

— caso (@casoxbt) June 10, 2026

claude fable 5 /goal:
help me shoot this soccer ball faster https://t.co/8eIKp2Np3x pic.twitter.com/Iac3mvVo57

— AA (@measure_plan) June 9, 2026

Claude Fable 5, 40% of Max 5x usage.

Full Mario Kart 64 type game in 2 sentence prompt.

All decoration and character models, 4 maps, music, all three game modes, UI was done by Fable 5 in a single shot, in about 15 mins.

What the fuck.#fable #anthropic pic.twitter.com/B7mTidE84U

— Kiera (@kieradev) June 9, 2026 Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 20:30

From FOMO To Oh No! Koreans Face Massive Forced Liquidations As AI Bubble Bursts

Korean retail investors’ aggressive leveraged bets on the market’s two dominant AI/Semi names - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - are now colliding with a sharp KOSPI correction, triggering the largest wave of forced stock sales in years and raising the specter of a self-reinforcing liquidation spiral.

At its peak last week, the benchmark KOSPI index  was up 100% for 2026, rivaling the Nasdaq 100 Index’s 102% surge in 1999 - right before the bubble burst...

Last week we warned, as levered bets soared to record highs... that 'the signal is clear: the cash buffer eroding while active leverage refuses to unwind'.

And the concentration was extremely clear with 'new lows' dominating even as KOSPI hit record-er and record-er highs...

Driven purely by retail momentum chasers, as foreigners were fleeing...

We specifically made the point that the rise of leveraged exchange-traded funds, designed to magnify daily moves, may further intensify a reversal.

Fast forward a week - and sprinkle in some vicious moves in the Korean index (down 17% from the highs in a week) - and those warnings have now punched Korean retail investors in the mouth.

As The Korea Times reports, South Korean investors are facing massive forced liquidations and margin loans come due.

Aggregated over the last few trading sessions, the figure approached ~300 billion won (~$197 million) - the largest such reading in recent memory.

The ratio of forced sales to outstanding margin loans hit 9.1% on that Friday, the highest of the year.

Source

These sales occur mechanically: investors who borrowed from brokerages (typically putting up 30–40% equity) must settle by T+2.

When equity falls below maintenance levels, brokerages automatically sell at the opening call auction - often locking in losses and adding downward pressure that can trigger further margin calls.

“The biggest risk during a sharp market decline is not the drop in prices itself, but forced liquidation,” said Kim Seok-hwan, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities.

“Investors are advised to reduce leverage, hold more cash and focus on high-quality assets.”

And it is far from over as margin lending balances remain near record highs.

According to the Korea Financial Investment Association, outstanding margin loans climbed to a record 38 trillion won on May 29. Although the balance eased to 37.8 trillion won as of Monday, it remained at an elevated level.

“It is estimated that much of the recently increased margin financing entered the market when KOSPI was trading in the 8,200-8,400 range,” said Noh Dong-gil, an analyst at Shinhan Securities.

“Investors often begin trimming positions voluntarily once losses approach 15 percent, while the risk of forced selling rises significantly around the 20 percent loss level.”

This unwind is the direct consequence of retail investors aggressively piling into Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix using both traditional margin debt and the new wave of single-stock leveraged ETFs launched in late May 2026.

What began as a retail-driven, leverage-fueled melt-up concentrated in two AI stocks is transitioning into a classic de-leveraging event.

The new single-stock 2x ETFs and record margin debt have amplified both the upside and now the downside.

Foreign outflows have provided the fundamental counter-pressure, while mechanical forced sales are adding the accelerant.

Retail leverage that felt like genius in May is now being stress-tested in real time - with the Korean market’s extreme concentration making the moves especially violent.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 19:40