Zero Rss

Hormuz Traffic Sank To Just Six Vessels Monday

Vessel traffic at the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline as last week’s hopes of negotiations of a U.S.-Iran deal began to fade, yet again.

As OilPrice notes, on Monday, only six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in either direction, down from 11 ships in the latest 10-day average, according to shipping data from Kpler cited by Reuters on Tuesday. Four commodity vessels moved inbound into the Persian Gulf via the Strait and two others exited outbound, the data showed.

Bloomberg data reveal a similar picture, only instead of 2 ships exiting, Bloomberg has only 1, bringing the total Monday commercial crossings to 5.

The inbound movement of commodity ships included two empty product tankers, while a small LNG carrier and a tanker shipping residual fuel exited the Persian Gulf with energy products en route to buyers.

At Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, traffic remained unchanged on Monday compared to the 10-day average of about 24 vessels transiting the area.

Traffic at the Strait of Hormuz has slumped to the lowest in more than two months as security concerns have intensified with recent attacks on ships and persistent threats to shipping in the region.

After a brief respite between the middle of June and early July, when traffic at Hormuz rose with the tentative opening of the chokepoint as part of the now-dead U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, traffic of all vessels, including commodity carriers, plunged to a two-month low as of the end of July.

The security situation has deteriorated in the past two weeks, with Iran determined to exert control over vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran-aligned Houthis threatening Saudi-linked shipments in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Traffic at Hormuz needs to recover to nearly pre-war levels of around 80 to 100 ships per day just to stabilize energy markets, Bank of America warned earlier this week. Only around 5 to 10 ships per day are currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, compared with roughly 140 before the war, Francisco Blanch, Bank of America’s head of commodities and derivatives research, told CNBC on Monday.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 14:40

A Tale Of 2 Deserts: Utah, California, & The Race To Power America's Next 50 Years

Authored by Lance Christensen via The Epoch Times,

In July, as America turned 250, a reactor the size of a minivan went critical in the red-rock desert of Emery County, Utah.

The company that built it, Valar Atomics, isn’t a Utah company at all. It’s based in El Segundo, California, in the shadow of the aerospace giants that once made Southern California the undisputed capital of American engineering.

But when President Donald Trump challenged American industry to bring a new nuclear reactor to life by Independence Day, Valar didn’t build its test site in California. It built it in Utah. That single fact says more about where these two states are headed than any think tank report could.

I have deep roots in my birthplace of Utah and a considered love for California, the state I have chosen to call home.

So, without picking a winner, we need to ask which state will actually do the work of building the next 50 years of American abundance, and why one of them keeps getting in its own way.

The Founders wrote the Declaration of Independence with the vision of building something more expansive than the servitude they endured for hundreds of years.

“Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” doesn’t happen by accident but can be possible only when a people reject the “multitude of New Offices, and … swarms of Officers [that] harrass [sic] our people, and eat out their substance.”

The men and women of the 18th-century revolution were dedicated to turning scarcity into abundance through sheer, sustained will and effort that would make its way westward in the mid-19th century without anyone’s permission.

As destinations for those migrations, Utah and California would asymmetrically benefit from these ambitious renegades over the years as they tamed the hostile landscapes of sagebrush, salt flats, and mountains.

My fourth-great-grandfather, Alexander Beckstead, was among the first to dig irrigation canals in Utah and construct blacksmith shops in the barren Great Salt Lake Valley. My wife’s family left Prussia to settle the Central Valley south of Sacramento as the unpredictable inland sea wreaked havoc on farms and cities.

Sam Brannan, the man who sailed from New York into sleepy Yerba Buena with 200 other Mormon ocean pioneers and announced the gold discovery on the streets of San Francisco, refused to make the trek eastward to the Great Salt Lake. He believed California’s beauty, resources, and location made it the better place to build, and he created town sites across the state and amassed a fortune that made him California’s first millionaire before dying in poverty.

Yet Brigham Young rejected the allure of California and, looking over the Wasatch Front, proclaimed, “This is the right place,” trusting that the desert would eventually “blossom as the rose.” And it has, with affluence oozing out of every corner of the state.

Although Utah’s population is a smaller portion of California’s post-World War II boom, it is currently blowing California’s deserts in Los Angeles, San Diego, and the Central Valley out of the water and doing so despite Brannan’s failed hustle a century and a half ago.

Young’s executive successor, Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, has spent this anniversary year arguing that the Founders’ “pursuit of happiness” was never about comfort. It was about character, self-mastery, purpose, and the discipline to build something larger than oneself. It is a high standard the state keeps reaching for.

In California, by contrast, it appears that the spirit of Eureka is lost, and there is less interest in the unglamorous work of actually building success.

That gap is largely political, not geological, resulting in a broken permitting and licensing structure. California’s sun, wind, water, energy, brainpower, and burgeoning artificial intelligence industry are no longer capable of producing some of the biggest innovations in the world as industries are drawn to other places with better regulatory environments.

My colleague Ed Ring has spent years documenting how California’s energy rules were designed for an era of managed scarcity, not abundance.

Ho Nieh, the current chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, likes to say the country needs more power plants, not more PowerPoints. Utah took that injunction seriously and got a working reactor in less than a year.

California, home to the very engineers who designed it, seems unconcerned that Utah is eating our lunch while allowing the decline of its aging nuclear infrastructure.

California does not need to imitate Utah, but she needs to return to the instincts that once defined this state as the destination for every adventurer. The legislature needs to pass predictable, consistent regulation instead of duct-taping rules that shift to the whims of progressive activists every legislative session.

We need public officials to plan for both baseload power and the demand spikes an AI-driven economy will throw at the grid. We need a culture that rewards the people willing to meet our mountains instead of celebrating those who are content to rope them off. We need to refuse the doom-laced climate rhetoric that treats every power plant as an enemy rather than a tool.

Two deserts, two centuries, two paths. Only one of these states is currently spawning nuclear reactors. The other one is still capable of it, if we can find the political will to pursue an abundance agenda with the seriousness and discipline required to build and sustain it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 14:05

Even Lefty Joe Scarborough Goes Nuclear On Dems For Refusing To Disavow Democratic Socialists

"Morning Joe" host Joe Scarborough went absolutely nuclear on elected Democrats Monday morning for refusing to denounce the party's rising far-left wing. He specifically cited far-left types such as Hasan Piker, a self-described Marxist who is the unofficial spokesman for the Democratic Socialists of America. Some DSA leaders have said in their own words that the goal is "to destroy America from within." 

Piker's toxic rhetoric has included attacks on America, calls to "kill capitalists," and inflammatory remarks promoting hatred and violence.

Hasan Piker calls on his followers to kill capitalists:

“Yeah kill them! KiII those motherfuckers and murder those motherfuckers in the streets. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood, dude.”

Democrats are campaigning with him. pic.twitter.com/YiZxGgRkgc

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) April 9, 2026

In one clip, Piker said: "We want more immigrants to come into your countries, and then they're gonna f**k your sisters and then your daughters. We're here to destroy the White Race, bitch."

Hasan Piker says he wants to FLOOD illegals into the United States so they can "f*ck your sisters and daughters" to "destroy the white race"

I am demanding the Democratic Party voice PUBLICLY that they denounce Hasan Piker's comments.

If they don't, let this post be proof…

— Jack (@jackunheard) August 7, 2026

Piker has a long history of hatred and violent rhetoric, but this is nothing new for the DSA, which is systematically pushing revolutionary Marxism to collapse the nation from within. So, this toxic rhetoric should make sense.

"The most important thing we can do is take that (American) empire down from within"

DSA members make it clear what their goal is: destroying America. pic.twitter.com/Txy5Na21UG

— Canary Mission (@canarymission) July 5, 2026

Meanwhile, the DSA has devolved into a "red-green alliance" of Islamists and communists....

And the latest comments from Piker to surface include:

Unofficial Democract spokesman Hasan Piker says he loves the goal of impoverishing the White middle class

This is who Abdul El-Sayed and Francesca Hong are campaigning with pic.twitter.com/t9zEsYgHE1

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) August 10, 2026

Here's Scarborough from yesterday:

But please, I don't need people telling me, oh, you have to just turn a blind eye to people saying that women getting raped on October 7th didn't matter in the grand scheme of things. Americans aren't going to support that!

This is not about me. This is about the Democrats once again fumbling the football on the two-yard line when they have a chance to make great gains, but being so woke—I don't know if you want to call it woke one, woke two, or woke three—but being too woke to call out the obvious! I swear to God, it's really crazy that we're even having this conversation.

If somebody says a woman being raped doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, it's okay to call that person out and demand that candidates distance themselves from those people if you want to rule over a party and win elections.

If somebody says going to a rally the day after Hamas slaughters more Jews than any time since the Holocaust, it's okay for Chuck Schumer, it's okay for Hakeem Jeffries to call that despicable and demand that people distance themselves from that. That's okay!

So why are we bringing this up now? We're bringing this up now because it seems an awful lot like what was happening in 2024 when Democrats couldn't get out of their own way to win an election they should have won."

Scarborough: Democrats must condemn Hasan Piker and distance themselves from his extremist rhetoric.

Retweet and follow if you agree! pic.twitter.com/LlHg6tdp1U

— Democrats For Mike Rogers (@DemsForMike) August 10, 2026

Left-wing Senator Chuck Schumer had his chance to denounce the Democratic Socialists but instead recently said, "Being a big-tent party is a strength, not a weakness."

Senator Chuck Schumer thinks Democrat Socialists — who want to oust him as Leader — make the Democrat party stronger.

REPORTER: “Is the rise of the DSA good for your party?"

SCHUMER: “Being a big tent party is a strength not a weakness.” pic.twitter.com/17hSbCbtMx

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 4, 2026

Scarborough is not the only voice in the Democratic Party denouncing the DSA.

Last Friday, Hillary Clinton warned about the unhinged socialist, saying on a podcast that Republicans are deploying what she called a "very effective" anti-communist attack against the Democratic Party's rising class of far-left candidates.

💥NEW: Hillary Clinton: "It's not just about Michigan — but the Republican messaging is: 'communist, socialist.' It's gonna be a VERY effective attack." pic.twitter.com/PS6ObKoZli

— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) August 7, 2026

Let's not forget:

DSA is far-left; let's not forget that. 

Understand here:

The rise of socialist and Marxist factions within the Democratic Party carries an obvious political risk ahead of midterms: years of radioactive sound bites have created an opposition-research gold mine and what could become a major "gift to Republicans" in the midterms.

The deeper concern is radicalization pipelines that aren't just colleges and funded by billionaire foundations via nonprofits but also influence linked to the communist regimes in Cuba and China, alongside an increasingly visible alliance between far-left activists and Islamist movements. Eyes on Middle East Children's Alliance (MECA) and China Marxist billionaire Neville Roy Singham. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 13:45

Solid 3Y Auction Stops Through Ahead Of Tomorrow's CPI Report

Ahead of tomorrow's CPI report (which will come in tame thanks to continued housing disinflation), moments ago the US Treasury sold its first refunding auction, which came in very strong, stopping through the When Issued, and with above par metrics.

Pricing at a high yield of 4.291%, up from 4.179% in July and the highest since Feb 2025, the auction stopped through the When Issued 4.296% by 0.5bps, the 2nd consecutive through auction.

The bid to cover rose to 2.712, up from 2.600 and the highest since November; it was obviously well above the six-auction average of 2.606.

The internals were also solid, with Indirects awarded 64.24%, down slightly from 67.50% last month but in line with the recent average of 3.729%. And with Directs awarded 24.0%, well above the average of 21.7%, Dealers were left holding just 11.7%, one of the lowest Dealers this year. 

Overall, this was a rock solid auction, and it should eliminate any concerns that the bond market (at least) is worried about tomorrow's CPI print (as in coming in much hotter than expected).

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 13:26

Syria's Hardline Sunni Regime Sentences Bashar al-Assad To Death In Absentia

The new government in Damascus has tried to press Moscow to return to Syria the former longtime President Bashar al-Assad. He's reportedly lived in a posh area of the Russian capital, under heavy security, since he was ousted in December 2024 and forced to flee.

Perhaps realizing they will never apprehend him, a Syrian court under the new hardline Sunni Hayat Tahrir al-Sham government has on Tuesday sentenced the former ruler to death after a trial in absentia, convicting him of war crimes and atrocities during the prior 14-years of internal war which overtook the country.

AFP/Getty Images

Judge Fakhr al-Din al-Aryan in Damascus convicted Assad for crimes including "premeditated murder, the intentional killing of more than one person, the intentional killing of children under 15 years... torture, torture leading to death, and deprivation of liberty on multiple occasions -- classified as crimes against humanity and war crimes."

"He is therefore sentenced to death," the court ruled. Other former high ranking officials in the Assad government are expected to be brought before the courts on similar charges. Many of them, including clerics and generals, are currently held in Syrian detention.

Some of these officials have been listed in AFP reporting: "The court also sentenced six former military and security officials in absentia to death including Assad's brother Maher, who ran the army's elite Fourth Division and also fled the country," AFP wrote.

"Those convicted included former defense minister Fahd al-Freij and Louay al-Ali, who headed military intelligence in Daraa province in 2011," the report noted.

The quasi-secular Syrian Ba'ath Party and Assad family had ruled Syria going back to 1970. This came about in the context of a permanent state of war with Israel, and particularly over the Golan Heights, as well as a long-running conflict with radical jihadist factions from within.

Prior to Assad family rule, Syria had suffered some dozen coups and changes of leadership, with many of these involving US and UK intelligence plots.

When there were signs of anti-Assad unrest in early 2011, the United States once again ramped up its covert intervention in Syria, pouring weapons and support into so-called 'moderate rebels' who went on to form the core of Syrian al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Meanwhile, meet the new Syrian government's top diplomatic point man to Washington, who previously kidnapped Americans as an AQ operative...

My interview with the Syrian chargé d'affaires to the US back when he was a member of Jabhat al-Nusra. pic.twitter.com/g0NSaH1WUp

— Lindsey Snell (@LindseySnell) July 28, 2026

Facing a Western and Gulf armed Sunni insurgency, the Assad government sought to put down the proxy war in brutal fashion. But ultimately after many years of covert and economic war, the West won out, and from this emerged Syrian al-Qaeda founder (Nusra Front/HTS) Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.

He is now the self-declared President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the West and Gulf nations have embraced him and his Sunni-dominant government as their 'friend' and puppet.

As for Assad, there have been recent rumors and reports the and his family have traveled abroad at times, making secretive visits to the Gulf region.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 13:05

Despite Record Surge In Subprime Car Loan Originations, US Household Debt Dropped In Q2: First Since COVID

Something unprecedented happened in the second quarter: aggregate household debt balances declined by $13 billion, a 0.1% decline from Q1. Balances stood at $18.8 trillion, up $4.6 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. But the reason why we say it was unprecedented, is that the Q2 drop was the first quarterly decline in total household debt since the second quarter of 2020, when the US economy was gripped by the covid lockdown shock leading to a historic deleveraging.

In fact, the only time aggregate household debt slides is during and right after periods of financial or social crisis. And yet, in Q2, risk assets soared.... which makes one wonder: just how bad is the economy really if one takes away the constant, debt-fueled (both on and off balance sheet) AI meltup?

Here is the breakdown by main category: 

• Mortgage debt at $13.12t after $13.19t in 1Q, a decrease of $74b
  • Mortgage delinquency rate fell to 0.99% from 1.09% prior quarter

According to the NY Fed, the decline was "due to a temporary gap in the reporting of mortgages on credit reports due to a transfer of servicing." Meanwhile, balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) rose by $13 billion, marking the 17th consecutive quarterly increase. Outstanding HELOC balances now total $459 billion, $142 billion above the low reached in 2022 Q1.

Non-housing debt balances, which apparently were not impacted by a tranfer transfer of servicing, grew by $48 billion, or 0.9%, from 2026Q1. Auto loan balances rose by $28 billion (1.7%), and credit card balances increased by $21 billion (1.7%). Student loan balances declined slightly (-0.4%). Other balances, which include retail cards and consumer finance loans, edged up by $6 billion to $568 billion. Key highlights:

• Student loan debt total at $1.651t from $1.658t in prior quarter, a decrease of $7b
  • Student loan delinquency rate rose to 10.6% from 10.34% prior quarter
     
• Credit card debt total at $1.263t from $1.242t in prior quarter, an increase of $21b
  • Credit card delinquency rate fell to 12.92% from 13.12% prior quarter

Some of the key charts from the latest report, staring with Mortgage Origination by credit score:

Auto loan origination by credit score. The notable thing here is the record surge in subprime originations (highest number of originations for sub 660 FICO applicants)...

... which was largely the result of a surge in 30-50 year olds getting a new auto loan.

In case going NINJA on auto loans wasn't enough, along with record credit card balances, we saw a much higher jump in credit card limits. Which means consumers have a LOT of dry powder.

Subprime-riddled auto loans aside, the one chart that may be most notable is the one showing that transition into delinquency b y loan type continues to rise, especially for Auto Loans, Mortgage and Credit Card. Of course, since student loans are already deep in the delinquency pipeline (most are 90+ days) there is simply nobody left to start the default process: most already have.

Commenting on the latest report, Joelle Scally, Economic Policy Advisor at the New York Fe said that "delinquency rates across most products have held steady over the past two years," adding that "new delinquencies for auto loans and credit cards remain at elevated levels, a trend we’ll continue to monitor."

And, ominously, as new delinquencies rise, the number of 90+ days delinquent loans are already near record highs for both credit cards, auto loans and student loans.

More in the full Household Credit presentation.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 12:35

Trump Weighs Federal Challenge To Mamdani's Socialist Tax "Experiment," Warns It Will Doom NYC

Summary:

• Trump Weighs Federal Challenge to New York Pied-à-Terre Tax
• Judge Temporarily Blocks Mamdani's Socialist Tax Scheme

Trump Weighs Federal Challenge to New York Pied-à-Terre Tax

President Trump said in a Truth Social post around lunchtime that his administration is examining whether the federal government has the legal authority to block NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani's dangerous political "experiment" before it can "destroy what was once a great City and State."

"It is pure Amateur Hour, and it's hard, as President of the United States of America, to sit back and watch it happen, especially to a place I once loved. Financial, and then Social, RUIN, is a 100% certainty - And then the Radical Left Jihadists charge Congestion Pricing on top of everything else," Trump said.

He continued, "This doesn't work in America, and must be stopped, NOW! I am looking to see if the Federal Government has any legal right to avert this disaster, before it is too late, for the millions of people who cherish New York and want to see it thrive, as opposed to becoming a filthy, crime-ridden, decrepit place of mockery and scorn."

"The City Screwed This Up": Judge Temporarily Blocks Mamdani's Pied-A-Terre Tax Scheme

A New York judge temporarily halted Mayor Zohran Mamdani's socialist experiment to impose a new tax on luxury second homes, ordering far-left City Hall officials to remove a controversial list doxing more than 900,000 homeowners from the public domain

The publicly accessible database exposed names, addresses, and property values, effectively creating an easily accessible targeting list for radical activists, including Luigi-worshipping far-left activists, amid City Hall's escalating war on property owners.

Related:

• "I've Been Doxed": Lefty Podcaster Scott Galloway Rips Mamdani After Landing On Socialist's Rich Target List

Bloomberg reports that Justice Wayne Ozzi temporarily restrained City Hall from proceeding with the new pied-à-terre tax and required the city to remove the online list of properties that would be targeted by the tax and halt further action based on roughly 17,000 notices mailed to property owners.

A hearing is scheduled for Aug. 31.

"The city screwed this up… got it wrong… stop the train and make them do it over," Randy Mastro, a former deputy mayor, told the court. Mastro is the one who brought the suit on behalf of three New York homeowners. 

"We are very gratified by the judge's decision, which has vindicated the rights of hundreds of thousands of New York City homeowners who were subjected to a process they never should have been a part of in the first place," Mastro said after the ruling.

On Monday, Mamdani noted Mastro's role in suits challenging his socialist housing policies. 

"You know, there are few things more certain in New York City than death, taxes and Randy Mastro filing a lawsuit against this administration," the mayor said at a press conference.

"There are a few things more certain here today than death, taxes and Randy Mastro filing a lawsuit against this administration," NYC Mayor Mamdani says when asked about the new lawsuit filed by Mastro on behalf of NYC homeowners over the rollout of the pied-à-terre tax pic.twitter.com/BTnvLPvgly

— Rebecca C. Lewis (@_rebeccaclewis) August 10, 2026

He continued, "So we look forward to vigorously defending our city's position in court as we have done so with the previous lawsuits that he has filed and I'm sure with the lawsuits that he will continue to file in the months and years to come."

Last month, Mastro also filed a separate complaint on behalf of a group of NYC landlords who sued to void a rent freeze approved in June, arguing that Mamdani improperly influenced the Rent Guidelines Board's vote and ignored evidence of soaring operating costs for landlords. This plays into the broader socialist endgame: bankrupt landlords and create conditions for City Hall to seize distressed apartment buildings. 

Mamdani has said the new pied-à-terre tax will help fund safer streets, safer schools, and "the city that New Yorkers deserve."

Yet we know socialists do not live in economic reality, and the fact that they had to dox homeowners suggests an alternative motive: they want to seize the means of production. Putting such a list out in the public domain for their radical left foot soldiers to access suggests that wealthy homeowners will be targeted. This is dangerous, especially given the rhetoric pushed by Mamdani's friend Hasan Piker, who recently said, "Kill capitalists."

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 12:30

Vitalik Buterin Says Ethereum Is Betting Its Future On Quantum Security And AI

Authored by Jason Nelson via Decrypt.co,

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin says quantum resistance, privacy, and AI-assisted security have become greater priorities for Ethereum since he published his 2023 roadmap.

In a post on X on Monday, Buterin said he updated his 2023 roadmap to compare its original goals with Ethereum’s current “Strawmap”—a working outline of the network’s long-term technical priorities.

“What's most striking, however, is that some completely new things are in the strawmap that are not in this diagram, because they were not in the 2023 roadmap at all,” Buterin wrote. “These reflect changing priorities.”

Among those priorities are stronger privacy and scaling designed for a post-quantum world, alongside efforts to push the “lean-ification of the spec,” or simplify Ethereum’s technical specifications.

“A common theme in scaling, found in both state types and zkzk frames (both new ideas), is that instead of trying to maximally scale all Ethereum activity,” Buterin wrote.

“We try to create specialized mechanisms that have more restrictive properties that make them more scaling-friendly, while supporting the heaviest loads incurred by users and applications today (eg. token transfers, swaps) and tomorrow (eg. privacy protocols).”

According to Buterin, advances in AI are making it practical to apply the technique more extensively to Ethereum.

Buterin said Ethereum is increasingly relying on STARKs, a cryptographic technology used to verify computations, and AI-assisted verification, to check that the protocol works as intended.

“This can only be safe with formal verification, which is itself only feasible with modern AI tools,” he wrote.

Buterin’s post comes as Ethereum has accelerated preparations for “Q-Day” and the potential threat posed by quantum computers.

In January, Buterin urged developers to adopt quantum-resistant cryptography before the threat becomes immediate, and the Ethereum Foundation formed a dedicated post-quantum team.

In February, Buterin outlined a phased plan to replace four potentially vulnerable components of Ethereum’s cryptographic architecture.

In July, Buterin put quantum safety and privacy at the center of his proposed “Lean Ethereum” overhaul, which calls for replacing quantum-vulnerable cryptography with quantum-safe alternatives.

“Ethereum will be quantum-safe. Ethereum will put users' privacy first. Ethereum will be secure,” Buterin wrote.

“Ethereum will be censorship-resistant. Ethereum will be highly performant and scalable while satisfying the above. And Ethereum will be Lean.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 12:05

Strategic Autonomy Is Running Dry

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

Yesterday, my road cycling took me along the Lek River, which branches off from the Rhine. I frequently ride the path along this river, but the Lek was almost unrecognisable in the distance and what is normally part of the riverbed has now run dry.

It’s a very tangible reminder of numbers we’ve recently been watching on our screens: Upstream, at Kaub, the water level in the Rhine has fallen to historical lows. And a new heatwave that is due to hit Europe, is bound to make matters worse: current forecasts see the level drop to less than 5 centimetres above the station’s zero mark by the end of the week.

The Rhine fell to its lowest ever levels at points in Germany and the Netherlands as heatwave conditions continue

Ships were already forced to reduce the amount of cargo they carry, but soon they may be unable to sail the entire river. The drought is effectively splitting this key piece of infrastructure into two halves between Cologne and Frankfurt. Inland shipping costs have surged, and companies are scrambling to find alternative transport for resources and finished product. This, as diesel prices in Germany have largely rebounded in the last month.

Concerned about the impact for local industry, several German Bundeslander are suspending Sunday driving bans for trucks and lorries. Indeed, the hit to economic activity will be noticeable.

But these droughts also underline that a once-convenient shipping route is becoming unreliable. Higher shipping costs and possible disruptions of key supplies add to high energy costs and other headwinds facing German industry. And although Germany has earmarked billions for the revitalization of key infrastructure, this will probably be insufficient to remedy the issue.

That’s a problem for Brussels’ strive to regain strategic autonomy – and a physical challenge for European plans to revive key industries and build new ones on European soil.

European –and American– plans to move critical industries back home are increasingly causing geopolitical friction. This is, after all, a zero-sum game where China in particular stands to lose.

Beijing realizes this too. China recently broadened its travel restrictions to include experienced engineers with knowledge of critical technologies such as rare-earth processing, solar panels or battery technologies. Those who “may endanger technological security” can be barred from leaving the country. The tightened rules must prevent that these engineers help companies set up production lines in rival countries.

These restrictions may clash with the European Commission’s planned Industrial Accelerator Act, which requires that large foreign investments in Europe’s critical industries generate knowledge transfers and local research & development.

In markets, the joint Japanese-US intervention in the JPY exchange rate is starting to lose its grip on the currency. The prospect of further FX interventions continues to provide some support, but USD/JPY is gradually drifting higher, and the currency has and it has reversed about half of the peak-to-trough move versus both EUR and USD.

As we noted last week, these FX interventions may prop up the currency temporarily, but it will probably not last unless there are structural improvements in the yen’s fundamentals. Last week, we also learned that the government’s plans are unlikely to do this in the near-term.

Interest rate differentials are also weighing on the currency, and the central bank is signalling that it may remedy this to some extent. Sources within the Bank of Japan told reporters that policymakers could raise rates again in September. The comments follow a relatively hawkish write-up of the July meeting.

The Australian dollar also slipped briefly after today’s RBA decision. The central bank kept its policy rate unchanged as expected, but traders read some dovish language in the statement, and the downward revisions to the bank’s growth and inflation forecasts.

However, RBA Governor Bullock corrected that in her press conference. She commented that policymakers debated whether to hold or to hike, adding that it is “quite possible” that the RBA needs to hike rates again. Monetary policy is currently seen as “a bit restrictive” and domestic demand has slowed in line with expectations. But, according to the governor, the domestic economy is still operating above capacity. So, consumer spending growth and the economy need to slow further for capacity pressures to ease sufficiently to return inflation to target on the projected timeline.

As our Australia strategist noted prior to today’s meeting, the RBA seems to hope that the three rate hikes since the start of the year will be sufficient to dampen domestic demand. However, we are not entirely convinced that it is. Accordingly, we forecast that the central bank will have to raise rates once more, in November

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 11:30

Zelensky Claims North Korea Sending Up To 50K Troops To Russia, Presses Seoul To Send Missiles

Ukraine's President Zelensky has in fresh remarks warned North Korea against its deepening involvement with Russian in executing the war against Ukraine.

Zelensky's late Monday words alleged that Russia recently received additional ballistic missiles from Pyongyang and is preparing to deploy more North Korean troops, after already sending thousands to fight on the Russian side.

KCNA via KNS

While reports from the last couple years have estimated that North Korea has maintained up to around 10,000 troops in Russia related to the 'special military operation' in Ukraine, Zelensky is now floating a huge number of projected new DPRK forces.

It started on Saturday when Zelensky took to X to say - without evidence - that "a decision has been made for 30,000 ⁠to 50,000 North Koreans to be deployed on the territory of Russia,” a higher figure than his estimate of 30,000 in July." He didn't specify where he obtained the alleged data from.

He also said that Ukrainian intelligence had located some North Korean missiles in Ukraine's territory, without further elaborating. What is clear is the Moscow and Pyongyang do have a robust defense cooperation pact, which was signed in June of 2024.

On Tuesday Ukrainian officials said that overnight at least nine people were killed in new Russian ballistic missile attacks, and scores wounded.

Zelensky then newly said in reference to the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, "The city was struck with North Korean ballistic missiles, Zircons, and guided aerial bombs" - and he described "a vicious attack, calculated to,  inflict maximum damage specifically on civilian infrastructure."

But again, no proof of the North Korean origins of the missiles was forthcoming. "It ⁠is absolutely clear that North Korea will ​continue ⁠to build its experience in modern warfare, receive licenses from Russia, and receive all kinds of military tools from them," Zelensky has also said.

Interestingly, Zelensky is using this narrative to try and goad South Korea into changing its policy and export heavy weapons, including anti-air defenses, to Ukraine:

Zelensky said North Korea was gaining valuable battlefield experience through its cooperation with Russia and urged South Korea to provide Ukraine with air defense systems and other capabilities.

"They have a legal restriction under their Constitution. But we would like to have this cooperation and are counting on it. Our diplomats are in contact," Zelensky wrote.

🚨 Zelensky: Russia struck Zaporizhzhia with North Korean ballistic missiles

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia launched more than 120 drones at Ukraine overnight, most of them Shaheds. In Kyiv, a missile strike damaged an infectious diseases hospital… https://t.co/khmFsf7xcu pic.twitter.com/Xj2ORoM4S8

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 11, 2026

However, this new pressure campaign on Seoul prompted one senior South Korean official to tell The Korea Times, "South Korea's supply of defense materials to any country has always been carried out in accordance with domestic law."

The official made clear that there is no policy change in the works, and that South Korean weapons will not start flowing to Kiev anytime soon - or this is the official response at least.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 11:15

Wheat Futures Volatile As Black Sea Crisis And Hormuz Chokepoint Spark Concerns

Chicago wheat futures are coiling for a breakout (one way or another) as ongoing Russia-Ukraine attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure and bulk carriers threaten exports from one of the world's most important breadbaskets.

Most-active Chicago wheat has been choppy in the last few days...

Hard red winter wheat gained as much as 2.7% to $7.505 a bushel.

Soft Red Winter wheat futures are poised for a much larger breakout if prices sustain a move above $7 a bushel.

Bloomberg noted Monday that Turkey temporarily suspended Black Sea transits by its cargo ships over the weekend amid ongoing maritime security risks in the critical shipping corridor. Ukraine warned that its agricultural exports for the 2026-27 season could be halved due to Russian attacks.

Joe Davis, director of commodities at brokerage Futures International, was quoted by the outlet as saying that potential supply disruptions had boosted US-grown hard red winter varieties more sharply because the grain is seen as a direct competitor to higher-protein milling wheat from the Black Sea region and Europe.

"While the disruptions don't necessarily translate into immediate additional US export business," Davis said, adding, "they do tighten the global exportable supply outlook and balance sheets, forcing importers to diversify origins and keeping support under higher-quality wheat values." 

With wheat prices inching higher and approaching $7, which could spark upside momentum, a gauge of global food prices tracked by the UN climbed to a three-year high in July.

Disruptions not only in the Black Sea but also in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with adverse weather conditions across key US and other key growing regions as El Niño risks rise, are certainly putting a bid under food prices, as the worst may be yet to come.

UBS analysts outlined five forces driving grocery bills higher in a note last week (report here). They asked a very important question: Is this the end of cheap food?

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 10:50

"Niceness As Whiteness": Professors Denounce Politeness As Privilege

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We have previously discussed how many professors seem to compete in finding new forms of racism in every facet of society and education.

Astrophysics, math, runoffs, science, statistics, and meritocracy have all been denounced as racist. In this academic cottage industry, professors secure publications and speaking opportunities by identifying racism in the expressions, images, or entire fields. Even time itself has been declared racist.

Now, however, academics have found another undiscovered continent of white privilege: niceness.

When I saw a story in The College Fix on a study of “niceness as Whiteness,” I was skeptical and decided to take a look. The study by Vanderbilt Postdoctoral Research Fellow Abigail Beneke, Professors Benjamin Fisher (U. Wisconsin-Madison), F. Chris Curran (U. Florida), and Samantha Viano (George Mason) was first flagged by Dr. James Nuzzo.

The paper “Niceness as Whiteness in School Police Officers’ Perceptions of Student Arrest” addresses the “perceptions of arrest” by school resource officers, or SROs) in two school districts.

The officers appear to be precisely what you are looking for in an SRO: empathetic and reluctant to make arrests. The researchers admit that they try to avoid arrests. However, according to the authors, hidden behind those sympathetic approaches was, of course, a boiling caldron of racism in terms of the racial disparity of those arrested.

Indeed, the researchers realized that it was the niceness itself that was the evidence of oppressive “Whiteness.” Indeed, the officers may not want to be engines of racism and use “niceness” as a “coping mechanism,” but do so by deluding themselves and others that they are nice:

“Nice SROs did not want to arrest children. Nice police officers thought of themselves as well-meaning. Yet, they expressed being required to arrest children because of real or imagined mandates. They used niceness as a strategy for upholding a system of Whiteness that systematically privileges White people and excludes those who fall outside of Whiteness. Niceness hinders possibilities for the types of political, communal relationships central to authentic care.”

The paper makes it sound like everyone would be better off, or at least more honest, to return to hostile, racist-spewing officers. The reason is that niceness is an  “enduring component of Whiteness” which “allows predominantly White people to elide how their own actions contribute to inequality by maintaining a sense of their own benevolence.”

The evidence of niceness includes such findings as how officers work at “minimiz[ing] the negative impact of arrest by highlighting their own goodness.” (This includes saying things like “You want to listen to the radio? You want the window down? Is there a station you want to listen to?” after an arrest.)

Then there is the fact that these officers have good relationships and perspectives of the students. Again, it is just a shield of “whiteness”:

“SROs used niceness as Whiteness in their recounts of arrest … by highlighting the positive relationships they had with students they arrested…As with highlighting their own goodness, highlighting these positive relationships reframes violence (i.e., arrest) that contributes to racial inequality as a positive, since students still like the SROs. This strategy emphasizes the officer’s ability to retain his niceness—by virtue of the maintained interpersonal relationship—despite having arrested the student.”

The paper is an example of ideological screeds posing as academic research. Based on a few interviews, the researchers simply declare the empathy and relationships to be shields perpetuating “whiteness.” They cite other studies identifying niceness as a whiteness tactic:

“Prior research has demonstrated how primarily White women educators use niceness to uphold Whiteness in their work with children (Bissonnette 2016; Drake & Rodriguez 2022; Gardiner et al., 2023; Vlach et al., 2022; Wiborg, 2022). We found niceness was also present in the work of SROs, suggesting the potential for broader application of niceness to well-intentioned actors working in structurally violent systems. In addition to framing niceness as a means of excusing behavior that upholds Whiteness, we equally center the structural binds that delimit SROs’ capacity for providing care. In doing so, we identify niceness as a coping mechanism for arresting children.”

At these universities (Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, George Mason, and the University of Florida), these faculty members and their obvious agenda are viewed as ideal choices to teach their students.

With four kids, I found the SROs at their schools to be extraordinary and popular figures. They would routinely intervene with kids to see if they were having trouble or try to direct them away from trouble. It turns out that everything that parents valued in their SROs was a perpetuation of privilege, according to these researchers.

While the researchers insist that “we do not intend to demonize individual SROs,” they reward the cooperating officers by twisting their every comment as revealing their deep white privilege. Presumably, they conveyed to the SROs that this would be a fair, unbiased study. It was neither, and, perhaps reaffirming their own triumph over racism, they were not a bit nice about it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 10:35

US Existing Home Sales Disappoint (Again) In July, Hover Near Record Lows

With mortgage rates rising and the 'low hire, no fire' economy leaving many anxious about their household finances, the ugly spring selling season has not been followed by a consistent rebound in existing home sales in the US.

After falling 1.4% MoM in June (revised up from a 2.4% MoM decline), US existing home sales fell again -1.7% MoM in July (worse than the -1.0% MoM exp). This dragged the annual increase in sales down to just 0.74% YoY...

Overall, existing home sales SAAR is holding very modestly off record lows, holding just above the 4 million mark...

“Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said in a statement.

He added that “there’s no doubt that the housing market would be thriving if average mortgage rates were to return near 6%.”

In recent months, home-financing costs and prices went in the wrong direction. Thirty-year mortgage rates have been climbing since the late-February start of the war in Iran, and recently reached a one-year high of 6.81%.

The median sales price increased 2% from a year earlier to $434,100.

That was the highest selling price for any July on record and extended a stretch of annual price gains that started in summer 2023.

Inventories of new homes for sale remain relatively high (and are thus pressuring homebuilders to choke back on additional supply)...

But, the inventory of existing homes for sale fell slightly (-0.6%) from a year earlier to 1.54 million - the first annual decline since Oct 2023...

By region, previously owned home sales in the South, the nation’s biggest home-selling region, decreased 3.1% to a four-month low. Sales in the Midwest fell 2%. They were unchanged in the West and up in the Northeast.

First-time buyers accounted for 29% of sales in July, down from 33% a month earlier.

One silver lining is the nation’s affordability crunch is easing when compared with last year as rising household income growth has generally outpaced home price appreciation, Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial Corp., wrote in a recent blog.

However, even some of that improvement has been eroded lately because of rising mortgage rates.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 10:09

A Modest Proposal: Performance Reviews For Senators

Authored by Frank Miele via RealClearPolitics,

It seems as though only one thing motivates Congress to act - the threat of elections.

That's why both the House and Senate have moved to pass a continuing resolution to keep funding the government until December. Originally funding was going to run out on Oct. 1, the date that was decided during the last shutdown crisis.

But with virtually every member of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate up for election in November, almost no one in Congress wanted to call attention to their own inaction by letting a new shutdown occur.

It's the political version of Pavlov's dogs. You know, the famous experiment by the Russian scientist Ivan Pavlov who trained canines to salivate at the sound of a bell because they associated the bell with the expectation of food being served.

The same thing happens with members of Congress when they hear that an election is scheduled within the next three months. Suddenly they want to be productive.

A representative can ignore constituents for 22 months and then suddenly rediscover them during the last two. And senators can become unresponsive to their voters for most of their six-year term, enjoying junkets and the other fruits of power while being under no obligation to get anything done.

Makes you almost sympathize with the Democratic Socialists of America, who have made abolition of the Senate one of their top priorities. Six-year terms have their virtues, but they also make senators especially prone to forgetting who they work for.

But maybe we could salvage the Senate if we could adapt Pavlov's experiment in a way that would hopefully train senators to do their job on the regular instead of just once in a blue moon.

Call this my modest proposal. Like Jonathan Swift's famous satirical essay proposing that poor Irish parents sell their infants as food, it isn't intended as a serious legislative recommendation. It's meant to expose an absurdity - in this case, a Congress that suddenly remembers how to govern only when voters are about to fire it.

Sadly, the proposal has little likelihood of being put into effect by those senators whom it would put on notice. Yet if its argument is accurate, then we can at least all agree that senators - and yes, all members of Congress - are little more than trained monkeys. If only we could train them well, perhaps they would do their job more consistently.

No doubt you are wondering how we could possibly accomplish such a remarkable goal. It's a relatively simple mechanism, akin to the bell that Pavlov taught dogs to associate with food.

Namely, the Senate can institute a rule that once a month, the citizen constituents of each state will be able to vote electronically on whether they wish to retain or dismiss their senator.

Now, before you worry about constitutional entanglements and the risk of meddling in the results of such digital ballots, understand that the votes will not be binding. Instead they will simply keep senators on their toes, just as the threat of real elections does today. The results will be widely publicized, and any senator who consistently fails to win majority support from his state's voters will be publicly humiliated.

But if it were taken seriously, it could have a much wider impact. Political parties could guarantee additional campaign support to senators who consistently earned the confidence of their state's voters. And the opposite would be true as well. Suppose a senator has only a 30% retention rate from the citizens of his or her state. Donors would flee. Challengers would emerge. Even the most complacent senators might begin to reconsider their inaction.

The genius of elections is not that they remove bad politicians. It's that the possibility of removal changes behavior long before Election Day. Congress doesn't need more elections. It simply needs to remember every month that one is coming. Perhaps Pavlov's bell could do the trick.

And then, instead of Congress passing a continuing resolution to fund the government for a month or two, we could return to regular order and watch appropriations bills passed for an entire year. What a revolutionary concept!

Frank Miele, retired editor of the Daily Inter Lake in Kalispell, Mont., is a columnist for RealClearPolitics. His book "The Media Matrix: What If Everything You Know Is Fake" is available from his Amazon author page. Visit him at HeartlandDiaryUSA.com or follow him on Facebook @HeartlandDiaryUSA and on X/Gettr @HeartlandDiary.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 09:45

Residents Storm City Council In Texas Over Islamic Center Approval

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Outrage is boiling in North Texas after the McKinney City Council voted 7-0 to greenlight a major new Islamic center complex, brushing aside hours of public testimony that included a direct warning from an Iranian Christian who fled Sharia law.

Citizens packed City Hall for a marathon session that stretched past midnight. More than 150 people signed up to speak. The approved site plan covers roughly 5.5 acres at Virginia Parkway and Crutcher Crossing. It includes a 15,000-square-foot sanctuary, a 10,000-square-foot classroom building, and a 7,000-square-foot gym for the McKinney Islamic Association, which says its existing facility has been outgrown.

City staff insisted the revised plan met every zoning requirement with no variances, leaving the council little legal room to deny it. Council members framed the vote as purely procedural. Residents who showed up in force saw something far larger at stake.

? NOW: Outrage is ERUPTING after McKinney, Texas council votes to APPROVE a large Islamic Center

Countless citizens stormed the meeting to oppose it, including an Iranian Christian migrant who SURVIVED Sharia Law

"I'm a Sharia law survivor from Iran, an I'm here to tell you,... pic.twitter.com/j8VLFzv8tY

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 9, 2026

One of the most powerful moments came from an Iranian Christian migrant who identified himself as a Sharia law survivor. "I'm a Sharia law survivor from Iran, an I'm here to tell you, this is a dangerous ideology you're allowing in the country," he told the council.

Other residents voiced similar fears. "They forced their way into countries and forced their religion," one said. Another warned the project "may become a base where young men and women will be taught and trained to overthrow this great nation, a threat for which my forefathers fought with their own blood to build for the liberty of its citizens."

Attention also focused on the association's imam, Sheikh Mohammed Ajabali (also referred to as Mohamed AlGebaly), who holds a leadership role with the Islamic Tribunal of the Dallas area.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's office has examined the tribunal, stating that the group has sought to replace actual courts of law, impose Sharia on disputes among Texas Muslims, and falsely represent its decisions as final judgments with the approval of the Texas judicial system.

State Rep. Keresa Richardson urged the council to pause action pending that investigation. U.S. Rep. Keith Self, who represents the area, told the room: "Child marriage, honor killings, don't tell me that can't happen here. There is no state cavalry coming to save you." He added that the freedom to choose one's faith "does not exist in political Islam."

Supporters of the project stressed religious liberty, the association's long presence in McKinney, and compliance with city rules. Association president Yasser Wardany said the group had redesigned the plan multiple times in response to earlier feedback and remained "committed to being a good neighbor." Some council members pushed back against the intensity of the opposition, calling elements of it election-year rhetoric. The vote still went through unanimously.

This fits a clear and accelerating pattern across North Texas that has already drawn intense scrutiny from state leaders and local residents.

Earlier this year, Congressman Keith Self laid out how Sharia-adherent Muslim-only enclaves have already taken root. He pointed to the East Plano Islamic Center operating for more than a decade as a parallel society immediately adjacent to law enforcement facilities, with a similar pattern emerging in Irving.

"Sharia is alive, well, and operating in Plano, Texas," Self said. "This is not a hypothetical or future threat. It is here, now and operational." He described the placement next to police training facilities as intentional intimidation.

State authorities have also moved against unauthorized institutions. Governor Greg Abbott directed the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board to issue an immediate cease-and-desist order against the so-called Texas American Muslim University in Richardson.

The operation had been marketing itself as the first U.S. university offering STEM degrees embedded with mandatory Islamic Studies courses while lacking any state authorization to grant degrees or even use the title "university." Abbott made clear that illegal educational institutions would not be tolerated.

Public facilities have been pulled into the same orbit. A taxpayer-funded waterpark in Grand Prairie, built with tens of millions in public sales-tax money, advertised a "Muslim only" Eid event complete with burkini requirements, lowered-gaze rules, and other Islamic etiquette restrictions. Organizers later softened the public language after backlash, but the exclusionary character of the original promotion was unmistakable.

The same controversy intersects with the far larger "EPIC City" project, later rebranded The Meadow. The 400-acre master-planned development northeast of Dallas is designed to include more than 1,000 homes, a mosque, faith-based schools, commercial space, and related facilities.

Developers scored a legal win when a judge ordered a state agency to comply with prior agreements even as investigations by the Texas Workforce Commission, Attorney General Paxton, and federal partners continued.

NEW: 'Muslim City' in Texas gets legal win after a judge ordered that the state must comply with developers.

The East Plano Islamic Community (EPIC), which has now been rebranded to The Meadow, will feature 1,000 homes, a mosque, schools, and more.

Texas leaders are worried... pic.twitter.com/HoSvNeV307

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 30, 2026

Governor Abbott has repeatedly stated that Sharia law, Sharia cities, and "no-go zones" have no place in Texas. Residents and elected officials continue to warn that the project risks creating a parallel community structure.

McKinney's approval lands against this backdrop. Local officials repeatedly insisted their hands were tied by zoning compliance and First Amendment considerations.

Residents who lived under actual Sharia systems, along with those watching the steady expansion of parallel institutions next to police facilities, private tribunals under investigation, unauthorized universities, and large-scale residential projects, see a different picture: incremental infrastructure for an ideology that does not accept equal standing under a single constitutional order.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 09:05

Ex-DSA Member Blows Whistle Over "Mob Tactics" Used On Dissenters, Debates Over Levels-of-Leninism

Via RealClearPolitics,

Former Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) organizer Jake Altman argues that over the past 10-15 years, the organization has transformed from a relatively pragmatic working-class social-democratic group into a much more radical movement driven by younger activists and open to more extreme ideas.

He describes internal pressure against dissenters, increasing openness to communism, and a demographic shift toward younger and more affluent, less experienced, and more radical members during an interview with The Free Press.

"When I joined in 2013, it was much more social democratic. It was very old, very white. In 2015 in Boston, it was a few older men and I who were the core of the old DSA chapter," Altman explained. "It is night and day between DSA in even 2015 and now. It went from this, like you say, pretty moderate social-political group to a cultural juggernaut that it is today."

"By 2014, a group called the Left Caucus was formed that advanced a lot of extreme views."

"There were debates at the time about how much Leninism do we want to let into DSA. And these people, they eroded any resistance and any core of anti-communism that remained within DSA. Anti-communism became forbidden, right? This is a big evil thing, to be an anti-communist."

"And you can't hold this view without running all the old people who experienced the 20th century out of the organization. And I think that had to have been part of the calculus, that they didn't want any internal resistance," he said. "And so there were instances where people were - I think efforts were made to silence people who dissented."

"I can speak from personal experience that if you dissent, there will be efforts to silence you. They use mob tactics, basically," he said. "So if you speak out, they will coordinate and a bunch of people will jump on you and denounce you, smear you behind your back, do whatever it takes to try to discredit you if you speak out against them."

"There was a local union in Ann Arbor who said it's too far to vandalize and intimidate public officials, vandalize their homes and intimidate them. That is too far," Altman said

"Immediately they received a swarm of people online responding to that statement, essentially saying, 'You're supporting genocide. Shame on you.' Trying to turn their members against them and stir up animosity towards them with the effort of silencing them."

"DSA itself makes a distinction - an important distinction - between paper members, who are people who give the organization their credit card and never come to a meeting, and cadre, who are hardcore activist members who show up to all the meetings and do all the work," he said. "The cadre are incredibly radical. The paper members might be, you know, think AOC and Bernie Sanders are great and let's get Medicare for All."

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 09:00

Futures Jump, Oil Tumbles As Well-Timed Comments Spark Latest Round Of Hormuz Optimism

US equity futures were trading near session lows with bond yields at August highs of 4.74% and Brent rising above $90 for the first time in two weeks when - with just hours until the market open - we had the now standard double-whammy of well-timed "imminent deal optimism" thanks first to the Qatar foreign ministry, followed less than an hour later by comments from the Pakistan defense minister - a man repeatedly used by the Trump admin to spread market-moving propaganda - which sparked instant algo buying on hopes of, what else, an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Pakistani, the US and Iran "are close to some agreement" and "the situation is moving towards peace" which was sufficient to not only push futures immediately to session highs, and just shy of all time highs...

... but also dump oil more than $3 and send bond yields to session lows on what is the same song and dance the market has heard countless times before, even as strategic and commercial oil stocks and reserves are being rapidly depleted below operational minimum levels.

As of 8:00am, S&P futures climbed 0.2% and contracts on the Nasdaq advanced 0.4%. Ten-year Treasury yields were little changed at 4.71%, erasing an earlier move as high as 4.76%, as Brent crude erased gains to trade 0.4% lower at around $87 per barrel, rising above $90 earlier. Earlier in the morning, Intel announced a $20BN capital raise in an upsized share sale (orifinally $15BN) that drew more than $100 billion in demand. That deal followed hot on the heels of Nvidia’s plan to tap a group of Wall Street firms for $500 billion in funding commitments, which CEO Huang said will underwrite AI infrastructure costs for customers. Today's US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and July existing home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee, unscripted on WIRED Tech Support on YouTube; Cleveland Fed’s Hammack and Richmond Fed’s Barkin have appearances slated Thursday.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +1.1%, Meta +0.3%, Tesla +0.5%, Apple +0.2%, Microsoft -0.1%, Alphabet -0.03%, Amazon +0.05%)

• ACV Auctions (ACVA), a digital marketplace to buy and sell cars, climbs 20% after people familiar with the matter said the company is exploring strategic options including a potential sale.
• Babcock & Wilcox (BW) jumps 35% after the maker of power generation equipment reported revenue for the second quarter that was far beyond the average analyst estimate.
• Cardinal Health (CAH) climbs nearly 2% after the distributor of healthcare products provided a year forecast for adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Everpure (P) rises 7% after the computer storage company said it secured a design win and supply agreement with a second top-five hyperscaler.
• Fermi (FRMI) rallies 16% after the power company entered its first binding customer lease at its Project Matador campus with TensorWave.
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is down 5% after the telehealth firm reduced the top end of its adjusted Ebitda forecast for the full year. The company also said it plans to enter the peptides market before the end of the year.
• On Holding’s (ONON) US-listed shares drop 15% after posting disappointing second-quarter sales, as the company held off from discounting older shoe models ahead of product updates in the US market.
• Plug Power (PLUG) rises 13% after the green hydrogen company reported net revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company also raised an outlook for revenue growth.
• Rapid7 (RPD) gains 6% after the software company raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings. It also increased the low end of its full-year revenue forecast.
• Riot Platforms (RIOT) climbs 17% after the Bitcoin mining company that recently began selling AI data center capacity was said to strike a $9.1 billion deal with Anthropic. The company also reported reported total revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) falls 5% after the company gave an outlook for adjusted Ebitda that is weaker than expected. It also pointed to a potential new delay with its Neutron rocket.
• Sable Offshore (SOC) falls 6% after the energy company had charges due to displaced cargoes in the second quarter and faced oil sales constraints at the start of the third quarter.
• Upwork (UPWK) tumbles 19% after the online recruitment company cut its full-year forecast for both revenue and adjusted Ebitda. Analysts see the results as a sign that AI is weighing on the company’s business.

Risk appetite, which was near session lows around 6am, spiked up after comments from Pakistan’s defense minister, who said signals in recent days suggest the US and Iran are “close to some sort of arrangement.” Earlier, US President Donald Trump made sweeping new demands on Iran, dimming hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Away from the Middle East developments, investors are looking to the US consumer price index reading on Wednesday for fresh signals on the path for Federal Reserve interest rates after Friday’s softer-than-expected data tempered bets on an immediate hike. US CPI probably rose 0.1% in July following a 0.4% decline in the prior month, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists ahead of Wednesday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack struck a hawkish tone on Monday, saying it’s possible a number of rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target.

In the latest massive capital raise to fund the AI rollout, Intel raised $20 billion in an upsized share sale that drew more than allegedly $100 billion in demand. That deal followed hot on the heels of Nvidia’s plan to tap a group of Wall Street firms for $500 billion in funding commitments, which CEO Huang said will underwrite AI infrastructure costs for customers. The “bank of Nvidia” creates a protective financing moat for the chipmaker, while fueling credit risk by lending to customers, according to Panmure Liberum’s Mark Taylor. “Nvidia is cutting a lot of checks and a lot of commitments with finite free cash flow” to an industry “driven more by efficiency of the technology and struggling for meaningful monetization.” That brings focus back onto the circular deals underpinning the AI boom.

With earnings season winding down, analysts are pricing a streak of exceptional profit growth for the S&P 500, the likes of which has typically only been seen after deep earnings recessions. But among global markets, investors are now flocking to Europe, which has experienced not only a stellar earnings season but is also benefitting from more clarity on rates than the US.

S&P 500 companies are on track for about 32% year-on-year profit growth in the second quarter, following a jump of 30% in the previous three months, according to figures tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence. The next two quarters are also projected to deliver gains exceeding 20%. Such runs are rare, occurring only 10 times since 1936, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists led by Savita Subramanian. Debt-funded AI spending will continue to support earnings despite volatility, according to Barclays Plc strategists, who prefer US growth and large-cap stocks.

In the latest AI news, Anthropic struck a $9.1 billion compute capacity agreement with Riot Platforms. CoreWeave’s guidance after the close will be closely watched as another indicator of demand for AI infrastructure. The company, which rents cloud-computing power for AI, gets about 80% of its revenue from Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft. And check out today’s Big Take on how AI-dominated leveraged ETFs look set to join the list of products that got too popular for their own good.

Barclays strategists stick with factor preferences of US growth and large-cap stocks as AI spending supports earnings; in Europe, they continue to favor value stocks and say momentum may recover gradually after a sharp selloff. US and European markets have seen a recovery in positioning over the past week, putting shorts under pressure, especially for the S&P 500, according to strategists at Citigroup.

In Europe, equities also reversed earlier losses with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.1% on the Iran headlines, amid very low volumes in the August lull. Energy and technology firms outperformed for a second day while insurers lagged. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Alcon shares advance as much as 6.5%, the most since November 2025, as the Swiss eye-care company delivers second-quarter results ahead of expectations and lifts guidance for core Ebit margin and EPS growth
• Idorsia shares gain as much as 6.7%, outperforming the Swiss Performance Index on Tuesday morning, after the US Drug Enforcement Administration proposed reclassifying dual orexin receptor antagonists, including the Swiss pharmaceuticals producer’s insomnia treatment Quviviq
• Bell Food Group shares rise as much as 11%, the biggest intraday gain in 15 years, after the meat and convenience food company reported earnings ahead of expectations, according to Zürcher Kantonalbank
• Lion Finance Group shares jumped as much as 5% to a record high after second-quarter earnings beat expectations, helped by stronger net interest income and fees, while the lender raised its first-half dividend and announced a further GEL59 million buyback
• ISS gains as much as 4.8%, the most since July 2, after the Danish facility services group’s latest earnings were praised by analysts
• Legal & General shares fall as much as 5%, the most in three months. UBS and Goldman Sachs downgrade the stock noting recent outperformance, marking at least the third move to a sell rating this week
• Spirax drops as much as 11%, breaking its recent run, after the thermal energy and fluid technology specialist’s small beat in the first-half and reiterated guidance failed to propel shares higher
• IHG shares slip as much as 3% to the lowest level since May. The hotelier reported a small miss on Ebit in the first half, though analysts attribute the shortfall to a one-off incident
• International Workplace Group shares fall as much as 11%, the most in almost a year, after the office company’s first half results showed an unexpected drop in free cash flow
• Tecan shares fall as much as 13%, the most since October 2024, after the Swiss maker of laboratory automation components and systems saw its order intake decline in the first half of the year
• Genuit Group shares slide as much as 7.7%, the most since April, after the British building materials group reported a miss on profit in the first half
• M&G falls as much as 3.6%, the most since March 23, after UBS downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, citing the UK asset manager’s “high valuation relative to its own history and peers.”

Asian stocks erased earlier gains to trade little changed, as losses in China offset gains in tech names. The MSCI Asia Pacific index excluding Japan edged lower after climbing as much as 0.5%. Tencent Holdings and AIA Group were among the biggest drags on the gauge, while chipmakers Samsung and TSMC were the biggest boosts. Australian stocks rose after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged as expected, while markets in South Korea and Taiwan also advanced. Japan was shut for a holiday. Oil’s continued climb amid US President Donald Trump’s new demands on Iran has revived inflation concerns for regional economies. Sentiment is also muted ahead of the release of key US consumer price data that would offer clues on interest rate trajectory. Leading gainer Samsung shares climbed 4.1% on expectations for a massive shareholder return package during Samsung Group’s Asia conference starting Tuesday. Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s main tech stock benchmark is set for a revamp to include more companies representing the fast-growing AI and robotics sectors

“Higher oil prices and a stronger US dollar are weighing on sentiment in parts of the region,” said Mohit Mirpuri, a partner at SGMC Capital Pte in Singapore. “Investors are also fairly cautious ahead of the US CPI print tomorrow, which should give us a little more clarity on the Fed rate path.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held steady as Brent hit $90 a barrel. AUD/USD fell as much as 0.2% to 0.7040; The RBA left rates unchanged and said financial conditions are “somewhat restrictive." NZD/USD fell over 0.2% to 0.5868, leading G-10 losses against the dollar; New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon summoned lawmakers to a meeting as questions over his leadership intensify. EUR/USD dipped 0.1% to 1.1531. USD/JPY steadied around 159.36. Bessent’s suggestion of a no-limits approach to helping Japan rescue the yen may be limited by his firepower to do the job, with the Exchange Stabilization Fund having holdings of less than $220 billion.

In rates, treasuries pared losses at the start of the US trading day as oil prices stabilize after comments by Pakistan defence minister stoked optimism for an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Focal points of US session include 3-year note auction, first of this week’s three Treasury coupon sales, indicated to draw highest yield since January 2025. Thanks to the diplomatic headlines noted above, yields are now little changed, erasing the entire move higher, with the curve slightly steeper; 30-year nearly reached its July 31 multiyear high 5.28% before retreating. First Treasury coupon auction cycle of the August-to-October financing begins with $58b 3-year note sale at 1pm New York time; 10- and 30-year new-issue auctions follow over next two days. WI 3-year yield near 4.33% exceeds comparable auction results since January 2025. IG credit new-issue calendar is blank so far, however seven issuers signaled intention on Monday, when 19 borrowers raised a combined $27.6 billion, more than half the anticipated weekly total; dealers predicted it would be front-loaded ahead of the July CPI report to be released Wednesday

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are slightly lower after climbing 3% to the highest level since July 31 following comments from Qatari and Pakistani officials meant to boost risk sentiment. Precious metals are fading some of their recent gains, with spot gold down 0.4% after temporarily making its way onto a $4,400/oz handle during APAC trade.

Today's US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and July existing home sales (10am); ahead this week are July CPI, PPI and retail sales and August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment. Fed speaker slate includes Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee, unscripted on WIRED Tech Support on YouTube; Cleveland Fed’s Hammack and Richmond Fed’s Barkin have appearances slated Thursday.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iran’s new supreme leader, Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, is putting his own stamp on the country’s national-security policy amid a confrontation with the U.S. that could last months or even years. In a sweeping overhaul of the government’s top echelon on Sunday and Monday, Iran named seasoned hard-liners to run the country’s security policies and institutions of repression. WSJ
• Persian Gulf energy producers are concluding that Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz will become permanent, disrupting their oil and gas exports and global energy supplies indefinitely. The problem is they worry the alternative—going back to war—would be worse. WSJ
• The BoJ may be edging toward an early rate hike, but it faces a growing risk that any move to tighten policy will be offset by mounting political pressure to support the bond market. As government spending plans drive yields ‌higher, the BOJ is being drawn into an increasingly awkward battle to defend its push to normalize policy and resist calls to resume the very bond-buying it is trying to unwind. RTRS
• The Bank of Korea will likely need to raise interest rates further as strong growth feeds into underlying inflation, its outgoing senior deputy governor said, while adding that the stronger currency and recent stock market moves give policymakers some flexibility in setting policy. BBG
• The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged on Tuesday but continued to warn that inflation remains too high, especially against the backdrop of war in the Middle East. WSJ
• UK retail sales rose an annual 1.3% in July, half the pace recorded a year earlier as consumers stayed at home during the heat wave. BBG
•  OpenAI is said to have bought back roughly $7 billion of employee shares at a valuation of $852 billion. BBG
• Intel Corp. raised $20 billion in an upsized share sale, a third more than it was targeting when it announced the deal Monday morning. The share sale drew more than $100 billion in demand, people familiar with the matter said, and was priced at $95 per share, representing a discount of 6.5% to Friday’s closing price: BBG
• Anthropic struck a $9.1 billion deal with Riot Platforms for 191 megawatts of data center capacity, people familiar said. Riot shares soared premarket. BBG
• Australia’s central bank chief Michele Bullock adopted a hawkish stance after keeping interest rates unchanged for a second straight meeting on Tuesday, warning it’s “quite possible” that further tightening will be needed: BBG
• Zohran Mamdani’s pied-à-terre tax was temporarily blocked by a state court judge on Staten Island after a group of homeowners argued its introduction was mishandled. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following a lacklustre lead from Wall Street, where risk sentiment was constrained by higher oil prices and yields amid geopolitical uncertainty, while conditions in Asia were thinned due to the Japanese holiday closure. ASX 200 gained amid strength in energy and miners following recent upside in underlying commodity prices, but with upside capped after weak NAB business confidence and heading into the RBA which kept rates unchanged as expected and maintained its hawkish tone, although it was slightly less hawkish, with the central bank acknowledging that financial conditions in Australia appear somewhat restrictive and it also trimmed CPI forecasts. KOSPI climbed alongside a rebound in tech and with notable gains in Samsung Electronics. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre after the PBoC opted for zero liquidity operations today, although the downside in the mainland was cushioned following prior reports that China issued the first new round of consumption vouchers aimed at boosting spending.

Top Asian News

• China's CPCA said China sold 1.47mln passenger cars in July (vs 1.651mln in June, -21.1% Y/Y); Tesla (TSLA) exported 66,330 vehicles in July (vs 36,000 in June).

European bourses trade mostly in the red, outside of the AEX and IBEX 35, as higher energy prices weigh on indices. The source of the move higher in energy came amid reports that a Saudi ship was reportedly targeted near Bab-al-Mandab. As a reminder, the Houthis have vowed in recent days to continue operations targeting Saudi oil tankers. Sectors have a negative bias. Energy is the only sector with clear gains, given the upside in energy benchmarks (Brent +2.5%). The sector laggard is Travel & Leisure, with Insurance and Construction rounding out the underperformers.

Top European News

• Swedish NIER Economic Forecasts: Raises 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% (prev. 2.2%), maintains 2027 GDP growth; Maintains 2026 CPIF, cuts 2027 CPIF to 2.2% (prev. 2.1%).
• Italian Trade Balance (Jun) 4.232 vs. Exp. 4.74 (Prev. 4.793).
• UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul YY) 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.7%).

FX

• Quiet action across G10s sees most currencies flat against the Buck with geopolitics driving the little moves seen.
• DXY attempting to build on Monday's gains, now looking towards the 100.00 mark as elevated energy benchmarks continue to support the Greenback (see commodities), price action which has supported a couple more bps of tightening across Fed expectations. Focus this week is overwhelmingly on the CPI print, especially since FT sources before NFP suggested Warsh was focused on the inflation side of the mandate heading into the September meeting. Data scheduled today includes the weekly ADP release, while the Fed speaker slate is light.
• AUD broadly unchanged after the RBA left rates unchanged, in line with analyst/market expectations. Some immediate AUD weakness on the statement as it tweaked language around inflation vigilance ("prepared to increase the cash rate if required" -> "...if upside risks materialise"), added the description of policy as "somewhat restrictive", and revised inflation forecasts lower, points which reinforce the view the bank is comfortable and set to remain on hold until mid-2027 as markets expect. However, the hawkish presser, "Possible we need to hike again" saw a reversal of that kneejerk lower, leaving AUD/USD just 10 pips lower at 0.7050. Some banks still caution there are hawkish risks to the outlook, while ING, Westpac and MUFG are some of the banks maintaining calls for unch. in 2026; RBA market pricing reflects the same, steady post-announcement.
• Some continued strength in energy exporters against the Dollar as geopolitics lacks positive updates, with CAD (+0.1%) and NOK (+0.1%). The latter has passed 1.00 in the Scandi cross (NOK/SEK +0.2%) as SEK suffers as a net importer. Action elsewhere is quiet, GBP, JPY, CHF all flat against the USD; EUR also unch. vs. the Buck, though firmer against most CEE, HUF to the largest degree.

Fixed Income

• A bearish session for the space, after being relatively contained overnight despite the incremental upticks in energy seen after POTUS commentary and the general lack of progress.
• However, the bias became much more apparent in the early European morning, as energy lifted from a maritime incident in Bab al-Mandab (see Commodities for more details). Amidst this, USTs fell from 108-09 to 108-04, lower by 7+ ticks at most.
• Bunds and Gilts follow suit directionally, down to lows of 124.28 and 86.33 respectively. Lower by 21 and 53 ticks, respectively. The docket for both is light. The German Bobl auction was broadly in line with the prior auction, but it did result in modest upticks in Bund futures.
• Germany sells EUR 4.627bln vs Exp. 6bln 2.90% 3031 Bobl: b/c 1.48x (prev. 1.48x), average yield 2.93% (prev. 2.89%), retention 22.9% (prev. 24.1%).

Commodities

• WTI Sep and Brent Oct futures are on a firmer footing with upside this morning seen amid reports a Saudi ship was targeted near Bab al-Mandab. Rhetoric also remains tense, with US President Trump saying, regarding potential escalation with Iran, that it is certainly possible and still has the ability to escalate. Furthermore, US President Trump, responding to Iran's requests for compensation during the conflict, said he was demanding compensation from Iran. Market focus remains around the prospect of getting oil flowing through both the Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb, with a US-Iran deal proving elusive and the Iran-Oman Hormuz deal unfavourable for Washington. Brent resides in a USD 87.41-90.02/bbl after topping yesterday’s USD 87.93/bbl high. WTI trades towards the top end of a USD 81.91-84.46/bbl range, vs yesterday’s 82.38/bbl peak. Dutch TTF is flat after finding resistance around EUR 62.50/MWh but remains north of EUR 60/MWh.
• Precious metals are weaker as energy prices continue to edge higher, adding to inflationary and growth concerns. Spot gold resides around its 100 DMA (USD 4,389/oz) in a current USD 4,356-4,435/oz range, vs yesterday’s 4,395/oz peak, with the 200 DMA at USD 4,497/oz. Spot silver is similarly subdued towards the bottom of a USD 64.23-66.48/oz.
• Base metals are mixed/flat, with downside from energy cushioned amid ongoing hopes of Chinese stimulus. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 14,103.00- 14,199.40/t range at the time of writing.
• Iranian Oil Minister said 95mln cubic meters of gas will return to the production cycle by the end of September.
• Romania said it is to shut down its second nuclear reactor in the next 48 hours amid low water levels at Danube.
• Chile's Codelco copper production fell 4.8% Y/Y to 114,400 tonnes in June, Escondida copper mine production rose 45.8% Y/Y to 111,400 tonnes, Collahuasi mine copper production rose 1.7% Y/Y to 34,900 tonnes in June, according to Cochilco.

Central Banks

• RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, with the decision unanimous, while it stated that inflation is still elevated and risks are skewed to the upside, but noted financial conditions appear to be somewhat restrictive and it trimmed its CPI forecasts. RBA stated that the Board will remain attentive to incoming data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks when guiding its decisions, while it remains focused on preventing high inflation from becoming entrenched and will continue to do what it considers necessary to return inflation sustainably to target, including raising the Cash Rate further if upside risks materialise. It also stated that inflation remains too high and is not expected to return to around the midpoint of the target range until late 2027, with upside risks to that projection. However, it also stated following three increases since the start of the year, financial conditions are now tighter than previously and the economy appears to be slowing as expected, as well as stated that financial conditions in Australia appear somewhat restrictive and the economy is expected to return to balance in 2027, a little earlier than previously forecast.
• In the post-policy press conference, RBA Governor Bullock said they see upside risks to inflation and that they will raise rates again if needed. She added that they did not discuss a rate cut at the meeting, only a raise or hold.
• The BoJ may consider an additional interest rate increase at its next policy meeting September 17th-18th, following a hike in June, in response to rising risks of higher inflation, according to informed sources cited by Jiji.

Geopolitics: Iran

• There was a maritime incident reported in Bab al-Mandab, with Fars reporting that a Saudi ship was reportedly targeted by the Yemeni army. In other news, Yemeni sources said a second missile targeted a ship while the coast guard was rescuing its crew in Bab al-Mandab.
• The UKMTO has received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Gulf of Oman.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the world should hold the US accountable for the Hormuz block, while Hormuz security requires end to US aggression, according to Fars News Agency.
• Yemen military source said government forces launched a concentrated attack on militia positions in Harib, Shabwa, according to Al Arabiya.
• Explosions reported in Yemen's Marib, according to SNN.
• Lebanon and Israel are expected to hold the next round of talks in early September, according to Al-Arabiya.
• Israeli forces conducted new strikes in southern Lebanon, according to SNN.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Kyiv's mayor said there were explosions in the capital and that the city was under ballistic attack.
• Ukraine's Military said it attacked an oil refinery in Russia's Orsk.
• Turkey is said to be discussing a mechanism with Russia and Ukraine a mechanism to prevent attacks on ships in the Black Sea, RIA reported citing a Turkish cabinet source.

US Event Calendar

• 6:00 am: Jul NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 97.5, prior 97.4
• 10:00 am: Jul Existing Home Sales, est. 4.05m, prior 4.09m
• 11:00 am: New York Fed Credit Report
• 12:00 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Appears on WIRED Tech Support

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday I was looking for something to cool us down here in Europe and, helpfully, it arrives tomorrow evening in the form of a solar eclipse. Totality is reserved for those in Greenland, Iceland, Spain (and a small part of Portugal), and northern Russia. Here in the UK, coverage should reach around 90-96%, with slightly lower percentages across much of continental Europe. So enjoy the brief dip in temperature and the chance to see daylight dim for a few minutes before the next heatbomb arrives on Thursday.

If the eclipse offers a temporary darkening of the skies, markets found a darker cloud in the inflation outlook yesterday, as oil prices rose again amid the absence of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, fuelling fresh speculation about rate hikes. In fact, Brent crude (+4.99% to $87.72/bbl) rallied past $85/bbl for the first time this month, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (+6.2bps) unwound the entirety of its decline after Friday’s payrolls with September Fed hike pricing returning to above 50% ahead of tomorrow's CPI. So after last week when it felt like the doves were in the ascendant again, the latest news has pushed things in a more hawkish direction, with yields and commodity prices both moving higher. 

In terms of the latest from the Middle East, there was still no sign of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and we also saw an escalation in the rhetoric between the US and Iran. From the Iranian side, a spokesman for its foreign ministry said yesterday that, while negotiations with Oman were “progressing smoothly and constructive”, the reopening was “contingent on the US ceasing its illegal actions, lifting the siege, and compensating for damages”. This request for reparations drew a rebuke from Trump, who posted that he was “likewise demanding compensation from Iran” for people killed by Iran in conflicts as well as in quashing protests. He added that this demand would be put “firmly into any, and all, future negotiations”. This follows Trump’s interview with Axios on Sunday, where he said that “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money." So there’s no sign of the gap between the two sides narrowing towards any imminent deal, while shipping via Hormuz remains at a virtual standstill.

The more pessimistic narrative meant that Brent crude oil (+4.99%) moved up for a 4th consecutive session yesterday, closing at $87.72/bbl. In addition, fears of a more protracted standoff were also gaining momentum, with the 6-month Brent future (+4.44%) also up to $80.24/bbl. So that helped to revive inflation fears on both sides of the Atlantic, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+12.6bps) back up to 2.39% yesterday. And that in turn led to mounting speculation about central bank rate hikes, with investors pricing in a more hawkish path for the months ahead. At the Fed, pricing for a September hike moved back up to a 52% chance, up from 44% last Friday. And at the ECB, a September hike was back up to a 90% chance, up from 85% last Friday.

That backdrop of higher oil prices and rate hike speculation meant it was a tricky session for sovereign bonds around the world. This was clear across the curve, with the US 2yr yield (+4.7bps) back up to 4.24%, the 10yr yield (+6.2bps) up to 4.71%, and the 30yr yield (+5.0bps) up to 5.25%. Moreover, there were even bigger moves in Europe where the economy is more exposed to the oil shock, with 10yr yields on bunds (+4.7bps), OATs (+6.4bps) and BTPs (+6.5bps) all posting a decent rise as well. So there was a consistent picture of yields moving closer back to the highs from late-July. 

With the move higher in oil extending as the session went on, risk assets struggled to get traction, with the S&P 500 (-0.06%) seeing a marginal pull back from Friday’s all-time high. The NASDAQ (-0.32%) and Russell 2000 (-0.56%) also lost ground, though energy (+4.63%) and health care (+1.68%) sectors helped limit the S&P 500’s decline. Leading yesterday’s losses were chipmakers, with the Phily semi index dropping -2.94% after its +9.25% rebound last week.

In AI news, Intel (-4.06%) is planning a $15bn offering of new stock, which would be the chipmaker’s first share sale since 1971. And then shortly after the US close we heard Nvidia (-2.86% yesterday) announce that it is teaming up with several investment firms to mobilize $500bn “to create dedicated pools of capital at significant scale at attractive rates for Nvidia customers”. After the softer US close S&P 500 (+0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.37%) futures are edging higher though.

In Europe, it was a marginally more positive story, with the STOXX 600 (+0.03%) inching up to a new record, having now posted 6 consecutive gains for the first time since May. That included a new record for the DAX (+0.02%) and the CAC 40 (+0.13%), but the FTSE 100 (-0.35%) slipped back.

Overall, risk sentiment so far this month has held up better than at the same time in recent years, as early-August has often gone hand-in-hand with downturn fears and a risk-off move. For instance, this time last year saw an underwhelming jobs report that set the stage for more Fed rate cuts in September. And two years ago we had the yen carry trade blowup, which led to huge (albeit brief) volatility before the Fed then delivered a 50bp rate cut in September. So the recent buoyancy in risk assets makes a change from the usual early-August pattern of the last few years and may have saved a few holidays, albeit with the situation in Iran still on a knife edge. 

In Asia the KOSPI is up +1.46%, but with mainland China broadly flat and the Hang Seng declining -0.60%. Japanese markets are closed today for a public holiday. In Australia the RBA has just left rates unchanged as expected as we go to press. 

Meanwhile in Japan, the yen is fairly flat after slipping back yesterday post the recent intervention, weakening -0.96% to 159.29 against the US Dollar as it fell against every other G10 currency. Over the past week the yen has now given up about half of the rally that saw it move from about 163 against the dollar just before intervention began on July 30 to an intra-day high of 155.23 on August 3.

Looking at the day ahead, it’s a quiet one on the calendar, but US data releases include existing home sales for July, and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for July.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 08:22

South America Just Rejected Socialism. So Why Is North America Buying It?

Authored by Kaizen Asiedu of Clear Thinker Academy, 

I've been in Colombia for the last three months.

Yesterday, right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella, aka "The Tiger," was sworn into office, succeeding left-wing self-proclaimed socialist Gustavo Petro.

This is what the streets of Medellín looked like when The Tiger won in June.

Colombia, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, Ecuador, Argentina, Chile, El Salvador — all of these Latin American countries had explicitly socialist, far-left, or Marxist governments that they rejected within the last three years:

Bolivia. Last October, voters ended two decades of rule by a party named the Movement Toward Socialism.

Chile. In December, voters chose José Antonio Kast over a Communist Party candidate.

Honduras. In November, they voted out the democratic socialist party of President Xiomara Castro.

Ecuador. Rejected the heirs of Rafael Correa's socialist project for the second time in two years.

El Salvador. In 2024, the party of former Marxist guerrillas that governed for a decade — during which the country became the murder capital of the world — was wiped from the legislature entirely. Zero seats.

Peru. Two weeks ago, Keiko Fujimori was sworn in after defeating a leftist who served in the cabinet of Pedro Castillo, the Marxist president Peruvians impeached and imprisoned.

Argentina. The left-wing governments that ran the country for most of two decades nationalized the oil company, the airline, and private pension funds. Inflation passed 200%. In 2023 voters elected Javier Milei, who campaigned on reversing all of that.

Applying the socialist label can be tricky, because it's an abstract ideology.

Some will argue that a few of the examples I gave aren't socialism.

They're right — about the labels.

These movements went by different names.

Some called themselves socialists.

Some were Marxists who never used the word.

Some skipped labels entirely and just governed the same way — nationalizing industries, centralizing control.

Different branding. Same ideology: state control over the market, and wealth as something to seize and redistribute rather than create.

That's what I mean by "socialism" in this letter.

That's the worldview that the leaders of all of these countries had.

And it's what voters rejected.

It's an abstract ideology, with some variation.

I'll get more into what socialism technically is later to make things concrete.

But what wasn't abstract were the results these administrations produced: increased crime, gang violence, unchecked immigration, economic problems.

What wasn't abstract was the experience of voters who had to live with the actual results of abstract theories — and rejected them.

Meanwhile, in America — the country people fleeing socialism risk everything to reach — socialism is growing in popularity.

66% of Democrats now view socialism positively.

62% of Americans under 30 have a favorable view of socialism.

South America is moving away from socialism, after having tried it.

North America is moving toward socialism, having never tried it.

We shouldn't have to learn this lesson the hard way.

In my first month in Colombia, on my way back from Spanish class, I met a man who explains all of this better than any thinkpiece could — a deported Venezuelan who called Trump the modern-day Hitler.

But then thanked him in the same conversation.

More on that later.

Americans Don't Know What Socialism Actually Is

The problem with discussing socialism is that often when it's discussed, we're not all talking about the same thing.

Many of the Americans excited by socialism think it's defined by universal healthcare, affordable housing, free childcare.

That is incorrect.

Many Americans also think socialism is what Scandinavian countries (Norway, Sweden, Denmark) do.

That is also incorrect.

In the words of Denmark's own prime minister, from a talk he gave at Harvard in 2015: "Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy."

AKA — capitalist.

The confusion is measurable.

According to Gallup polling: in 1949, 34% of Americans defined socialism as government ownership or control of the economy, and only 2% said "benefits and services."

The 34% were correct.

By 2018, government ownership had fallen to 17% while "equality" had climbed to 23% — the single most common answer.

The word has drifted from being understood correctly as a description of how an economy operates, to a vibe about fairness.

So let's restore the definition, because clear thinking requires clear definitions.

Socialism is defined by one thing: who owns the means of production.

The "means of production" are the infrastructure used to produce goods and services — factories, land, firms, capital. Whoever owns them captures the wealth they generate.

Under capitalism, private individuals own the means of production and keep the profits.

Under socialism, that ownership is through collectives, or the government.

In practice, it's almost always the government.

That's the dividing line. Not tax rates. Not government benefits. Not wealth inequality. Not social justice.

You can have a capitalist system with high taxes, high government benefits, and low wealth inequality — that's what Scandinavian countries are.

You can also have a capitalist system with low taxes, low government benefits, and high wealth inequality — like Singapore.

Or you can have America — which is in between.

And there are socialist countries where the state controls the money, benefits are generous on paper, and inequality is low. Venezuela. Cuba.

Countries where the taxes are high, but the money doesn't actually help people.

Countries where government benefits are high on paper, but low quality in reality.

Countries where there's low wealth inequality — because everyone is poor.

Fortunately for the Latin American countries that recently rejected socialism, they cut the socialism experiment short before it wrecked them.

Some countries, like Venezuela, weren't so fortunate.

The Venezuelan Who Called Trump Hitler — and Thanked Him

While in Medellín, I met a man who was born in Venezuela and brought to America by his parents when he was a boy.

He lived in America for 34 years.

He was deported by ICE and is now homeless on the streets of Medellín.

He asked me for money, so I gave him some.

We had a conversation about his experiences.

He described Donald Trump as the modern-day Adolf Hitler.

Now you might wonder — why is a Venezuelan-born man who was deported from America living in Colombia? Why not go back to Venezuela?

Because Venezuela has been ruined by socialists.

Most Americans who want socialism, have never spoken to someone who lived under socialism.

While in Colombia, I met a man who was born in Venezuela and brought to America by his parents when he was a boy.

He lived in America for 34 years.

He was deported by ICE and now is… https://t.co/HFuNTpkLxp pic.twitter.com/LDMovGIabq

— Kaizen D. Asiedu (@thatsKAIZEN) August 9, 2026

How bad must the effect of socialism be for a man who literally thinks Trump is the new Hitler to be grateful to him for invading his country of birth and removing its leader?

I've heard this story over and over from the many Venezuelans I've met here.

Because it turns out that there are many Venezuelans in Colombia.

Because they left Venezuela.

Because of socialism.

Venezuela, which used to be a thriving society — with a capitalist system, oil wealth, and a well-educated population — is just one of the many countries that fell victim to the false promises of socialism.

And in doing so, it's impacted other countries too.

Like Colombia, which has a large population of Venezuelans looking for a better life, and now has to deal with the challenges of integrating a large foreign population fleeing socialism.

While Colombia itself suffers from the effects of guerrilla violence, which increased under Petro.

Most Americans, especially those under 30, aren't well-educated on the actual impact of socialism in history or modernity.

I've had multiple Venezuelans tell me in frustration that they see Americans who don't know anything about Venezuela standing and protesting Trump's arrest of Maduro, while those who actually lived under Maduro are thrilled to see him go.

Venezuela followed a familiar pattern:

1. Socialists and Marxists promise people abundant free services and equity, and get in power.
2. They redistribute wealth — through taxes, seizures, and state revenues.
3. They replace private industry with government control.
4. Initially, things seem to be going well.
5. Over time, less wealth is created, because private industry is always better than government at creating wealth.
6. Over time, the public sector goes from being controlled by the people to being controlled by the bureaucrats.
7. Bureaucrats continue to seize control, because the people don't have economic leverage (the wealth has been seized) and don't have physical leverage (they don't have weapons).
8. Removal of the bureaucrats becomes impossible without force — which the people no longer have.

At least everyone is equal now — equally poor.

Socialism hasn't just "not been done right."

It almost certainly can't work, because it destroys the source of wealth it seeks to redistribute.

I say "almost" because there's a nonzero chance technology someday makes massive, efficient government possible.

Unless today's socialists have a secret AI model that can do this — that day is not today.

"But That's Not Real Socialism"

Most of these countries never completed the conversion to socialism.

That doesn't mean socialism wasn't tried. An ideology is tried whenever the people who hold it get power — and it's judged by what they do with it.

Petro said it plainly in 2025: "I am a socialist." He never made Colombia socialist. His worldview still ran the country for four years.

Mamdani is running New York right now. If the city declines under him, "but New York never became fully socialist" will not be a defense of socialism. A socialist with power, governing from a socialist worldview — that is socialism being tried, whether or not the conversion completes.

That's what happened across Latin America.

Voters didn't reject an abstract ideology.

They rejected its concrete results.

And the deeper the conversion went, the worse it got — Venezuela went furthest and fell hardest.

"It just needed more time" is not the lesson.

The reverse objection comes from the other direction: "Norway's government owns oil companies, so Norway is socialist."

No. Socialism is when public ownership is the rule. A few state-owned companies are the exception that proves the rule — Alaska has oil revenue too.

How to Talk Someone Out of Socialism Without Losing Them

I'm writing a lot about socialism because I think it's a bad idea.

That said, simply calling something a bad idea doesn't change people's minds.

Many of you have friends or family who find socialism appealing.

Here are some concrete instructions to help you in those conversations.

First. Never argue against socialism in the abstract. You'll both lose. Do this instead.

Step one: ask them to define it. "When you say socialism, what do you mean by that?" Nine times out of ten you'll hear: healthcare people can afford, housing people can afford, childcare, education.

Step two: agree with the goals. Sincerely — assuming you share them, and I do. "I want people to have healthcare and housing they can afford too." You've just converted a duel into a collaboration. Most political conversations die before this sentence gets said.

Step three: offer the actual definition. "Can I share what socialism technically means? It's about who owns the farms, factories, grocery stores, and companies that produce everything. Socialism moves that ownership from entrepreneurs and businesses to centralized control — usually the government. The question it answers is who owns production, rather than which services people receive."

Step four (if they bring up Scandinavia): "The countries you're pointing to are market economies with strong safety nets — funded by taxing private wealth creation. Their own leaders insist on this. So what you might want is better capitalism — and that, we can build."

Step five: only now, the evidence. Venezuela, where socialism went all the way. A continent's rejections everywhere it went partway. Presented as data to consider, rather than as a gotcha.

We practice conversational strategies like this in Clear Thinker Academy, and help people be honest without losing relationships.

If you'd rather train these skills than just read about them, that's what the Academy is for: clearthinkeracademy.com

The Fix: Revert to the Previous Working Version of Capitalism

The worst way to fight socialism is to defend the current version of capitalism. The current version is the recruiting poster for socialism.

What we're running now is captured capitalism.

Since Citizens United, outside political spending exploded from $574 million in 2008 to $4.5 billion in 2024.

A single billionaire matched the combined donations of three million small donors.

Corporations shipped labor abroad, institutional investors outbid families for starter homes, and the rules are increasingly written by the industries they're supposed to govern.

Young people conclude the game is rigged because, in the ways that touch their lives most, it is.

Socialism's appeal is a symptom. Captured capitalism is the disease.

And the cure isn't even theoretical.

We can start by just reverting to the previous working version of capitalism.

In 1996, socialism had no constituency in this country.

Because capitalism was delivering: rising wages, attainable homes, a middle class that could plan a future.

That system — markets that compete, a government that isn't totally for sale — was the last working version, and restoring it is a repair job: through campaign finance reform and smarter laws so more housing can be built.

The way to beat socialism is to give people a capitalism worth keeping.

Know a Tree by Its Fruits

You don't need history books to evaluate socialism anymore.

You don't even need a passport.

You can go look at the results in the present day — or talk to the people in America who escaped them.

The evidence is alive, it speaks Spanish, and for three years it has been voting — in country after country — against socialism.

An entire continent tried this worldview at every level of intensity and is climbing out of the hole.

America needn't stand at the edge of that hole, asking what would happen if we jumped in too.

Find more here on Clear Thinker... 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 08:05

Democrats Shocked By The Cancel Culture They Built

Authored by Sasha Stone via SashaStone.com,

I've heard the new talking point on the Left trying to explain away Hasan Piker's truly vile comments on 9/11. Bernie Sanders, AOC, and Abdul Sayed have all used the term. The memo went out, and now they're repeating it like parrots. You can see for yourself in these videos [click on SashaStone's blog above to see a montage].

CNN: “Hasan Piker said America deserved 9/11. Are you comfortable with that?”

Bernie Sanders: “No, I think that was a dumb statement. But he has lots of followers. We have to get above cancel culture. We need a big tent.” pic.twitter.com/uk92aL1z40

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) August 5, 2026

El-Sayed on Hasan Piker: To sit here and play gotcha politics with a dumb thing somebody said out of context…I want to be held accountable for what I say and what I do rather than this idea that we're so stuck in cancel culture that all of us agreed was a bad idea back in 2020… pic.twitter.com/88OUSzIQLM

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 9, 2026

We'll hear it every time someone brings up Hasan Piker: "We have to get over cancel culture."

I almost fell off my chair. Now they're noticing cancel culture? Now they want to end it just so they can snuggle up to one of the most vile people in the influencer lane because he has a lot of followers?

Cancel culture is not over on the Left. I'm living proof as someone who was canceled and is still canceled. If they want it to be over, then let it be over - but it is most certainly not over. All of these monsters are still carrying pitchforks and screaming at the Right, calling them "racists" and "bigots" and "transphobes." None of that has gone away.

Why do they think no one showed up at the America 250 celebration or would play the Kennedy Center?

Taylor Swift allows her music to be played by everyone except you-know-who. She is saying that Trump and his voters can't be included in her world. They were celebrating on TikTok over it - another cancel culture battle won. And they mostly win them all.

They still have all of the cultural power, and they'll decide who gets to stay or who has to go. That decision will be based on one thing: conformity. If you go along with it, you can stay. If you push back, you have to go.

Sophie Cunningham made news recently just for stating that she believes in biological reality, and it turned into a major scandal driving the news cycle for weeks.

Even if she wasn't thrown out of the WNBA, which is progress, I suppose, that doesn't mean she hasn't been punished and will continue to be punished. They can't cancel J.K. Rowling either, but the enormous pressure she's been under for years proves exactly who these monsters are.

The Paramount/Skydance merger with Warner Bros. shows just how far and wide cancel culture is still used as a method of societal control on the Left. All of Hollywood, all the celebrities, the New York Times, and the trades are pummeling the deal for one reason and one reason only: Donald Trump.

The actor Geno Segers can sing. He can really sing.

But because some children spies went out and hunted down his comments on trans ideology - and the fact that he dared to mock Don Lemon - he was thrown out of Hadestown.

Don't tell me cancel culture is over. It is not. I am still on the outside of the Left's totalitarian Doomsday Cult, and it will likely stay that way until I leave this earth. They're not giving it up. They're just pretending to because now they have a "problematic" creep causing them problems.

It was, in fact, AOC who backed the whole concept of "deplatforming."

Hasan Piker likes to be controversial, just like Candace Owens, just like Tucker Carlson. They say things to provoke people for clicks and views. There is nothing new about any of this. The difference is that the Democrats are allowing this one guy to get a pass because if they turn on him, he'll turn on them.

And lest you start in with "there's cancel culture on the Right, too" - not really. It's true that people are attacked and sometimes exiled for their views, but the Right does not have the same kind of power the Left does.

I was canceled because of a joke on X that they deemed "racist" and for voting for Trump. These are not cancelable offenses in my view. But public shaming is sometimes necessary to push back on someone who, for instance, claims Israel murdered Charlie Kirk.

I would love it if cancel culture was really over, but it isn't. These Democratic Socialists are lying. They aren't giving up their most powerful weapon against the Right: that they own everything and run everything in most of our culture and our institutions.

They have been abusing that power for ten years. I, for one, am happy to see it splash back on their faces like toilet water. They deserve it.

If cancel culture is over, let it be over. Give up your power over all of us to decide who can say what and what people have to believe. Let's all be one country again. Every person who voted for Trump knows how they're treated by most of our cultural overlords every single day for ten years.

End it, and then we'll stop talking about Hasan Piker.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 07:20

China's Unitree Robotics IPO 5,526 Times Oversubscribed By Retail Investors

Unitree Robotics' initial public offering was heavily oversubscribed (5,526 times) by retail investors as China's first publicly traded humanoid robotics company prepares to enter the public markets. The IPO will help usher in physical AI to the equity market.

The Hangzhou-based humanoid robot maker raised about 6.1 billion yuan, or $904 million, after selling 40.4 million shares at 150.8 yuan each, according to Bloomberg.

The offering values Unitree at roughly 61 billion yuan, or $9 billion, ahead of its expected STAR Market debut this month. The IPO will make the firm China's first publicly traded humanoid robot manufacturer.

Top investors soaked up about 20% of the offering, including AI startup DeepSeek, a Tencent-affiliated investment vehicle, and investment arms linked to CNPC, China Southern Power Grid, and China Telecom. DeepSeek was allocated a 2.31% stake.

China Dominates The Humanoid Robot Race. Can Trump Close The Gap?

It should surprise no one that new data from Smart Analytics Global, cited by Bloomberg, shows that Chinese humanoid robot makers accounted for a staggering 97% of global shipments in the first half of 2026.

The figures come as the Trump administration increasingly recognizes that humanoids will be critical to the emerging physical AI era, creating an urgent need to build out America's robot supply chain, including motors, actuators, sensors, batteries, and AI models.

via Barclays.

Smart Analytics Global said global humanoid shipments tripled to 19,100 units in the first half from 5,100 a year earlier. The research firm expects deliveries to reach roughly 60,000 this year and climb to 500,000 by 2030.

The estimates are similar to those from major institutional research desks, including UBS, whose most bullish forecast projects nearly 400,000 global deliveries by the end of the decade.

via UBS. 

Our latest notes dissecting the humanoid robot value chain and examining how to profit from the key companies that manufacture critical components, such as motors and actuators, find that many of these companies are based in Asia, more specifically in China.

• Physical AI Faces One Critical Chokepoint, And Here's How To Profit
• Digging Deeper Inside Physical AI's Hardware Stack Powering Humanoids

China's dominance on humanoids reflects years of policy support and government funding aimed at accelerating robotics, drones, electric vehicles, and much more. The country's progress was on display at the World AI Conference in Shanghai last month, where dozens of companies demonstrated rapid advances in dexterity, speed, and autonomous capabilities. 

The US recently banned imports of new Chinese humanoid and quadruped robots, as well as certain components, citing national security concerns and cybersecurity risks to AI infrastructure. 

The Trump administration has yet to release a standalone executive order specifically aimed at supercharging the domestic humanoid robotics industry, but we expect that could be coming.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/11/2026 - 06:55