Zero Rss

Backroom Detente: A Curious Lack Of Iranian Strikes On UAE, While Others Get Hit

President Trump is vowing another consecutive night of even heavier US military strikes on Iran. Yesterday's salvo involved at least 49 Tomahawk missile strikes, mainly happening against southern coastal areas off the Strait of Hormuz.

Amid Iran's counter-attacks on Gulf nations and reportedly on American bases hosted in these Arab Gulf allied states, there's been a curious lack of any new launches against the United Arab Emirates. 

Kuwait and Bahrain have been hit especially hard in this week's new flare-up in cross-Gulf fighting, but again, the UAE has been spared - after previously coming under significant attacks during the opening month of Operation Epic Fury. Even faraway Jordan has been targeted in the new 'retaliatatory' attacks.

But Bloomberg on Thursday revealed the reason - Iran and the UAE have apparently reached an 'understanding' after some backroom dealing and diplomacy.

"Senior national security officials from the United Arab Emirates and Iran held a face-to-face meeting for the first time since the start of the US-Israeli war against Tehran, according to people with knowledge of the situation," Bloomberg reports.

"This week’s meeting marked a stark turnaround for both sides and comes amid their growing acknowledgment of the importance of calmer bilateral ties, the people said, asking not to be named discussing sensitive matters," the fresh reporting continues.

In the UAE's thinking, it has too much to risk if it continues to face Iran's significant ballistic missile and drone arsenal, at a moment Washington has failed to clearly define an end game, but instead is climbing up the escalation ladder with a cornered and thus fierce Iran, which sees itself fighting for its very survival.

According to more from Bloomberg:

The UAE’s leaders want to keep their bold economic ambitions, including investing billions of dollars in increased oil production and in AI data centers, on track. The relationship is important for Tehran too, as the Gulf nation was among the Islamic Republic’s biggest trading partners before the war began and a key conduit for sanctioned Iranian oil.

Other leaders - both on the political and business fronts - are also likely asking themselves: when will it end? 

After all, each time the United States escalates, it's these Gulf economies that are the first to feel the pain, as they literally find themselves on geographic the front line just a few hundred miles away from Iran's borders. 

If it is indeed accurate that Gulf nations are approaching Iran to do individual separate deals, this is for now a diplomatic 'win' for Tehran. Separate deal-making, peeling others away from a united front and bloc, gives Iran some greater leverage and also flexibility in terms of potential post-war economic and political detente with regional states.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 13:20

Pardoned J6er Sues Government For $18 Million Over Alleged Abuse In Pretrial Detention

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

A former Jan. 6 defendant who alleged torture and other abuse in custody is suing the federal government for almost $18 million.

The lawsuit by Ryan Samsel of Bristol, Pennsylvania, was filed late June 9 in federal court in Virginia, six months after he gave the government the legally required notice he was planning to litigate.

He is seeking $17,980,000 from the federal government for physical and mental injuries suffered from January 2021 through January 2025.

According to the newly filed legal complaint, Samsel was convicted in February 2024 of civil disorder-related offenses in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol breach and was incarcerated and awaiting sentencing when President Donald Trump pardoned him last year.

Specifically, he was convicted on felony charges of civil disorder; assaulting, resisting, or impeding officers; and assaulting, resisting, or impeding officers using a dangerous weapon, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) previously said. Samsel disputes the criminal allegations.

Samsel alleges he was subjected to physical and psychological abuse while in custody at facilities operated by the DOJ and the U.S. Bureau of Prisons in the District of Columbia and Virginia.

At those facilities, “he was repeatedly beaten, subject to other incidents of extraordinary physical and mental abuse and routinely denied medical care.”

In addition, he was “wrongfully detained for one day after receiving a full pardon, based on false allegations of an outstanding warrant made by the prosecutor.”

The DOJ also leaked false information to the media indicating that Samsel was a member of the Proud Boys, the complaint alleges.

The group, some of whose members have been accused of violence, describes itself as a patriotic drinking club.

The complaint says that during his incarceration, Samsel suffered orbital bone fractures and bilateral nasal bone fractures.

Among his other injuries were a dislocated jaw, multiple concussions, traumatic brain injuries, an acute kidney injury, and stab wounds to his legs, ankles, and arms.

He experienced severe post-traumatic stress disorder and cognitive and memory impairment “attributable to repeated head trauma and prolonged psychological torture.”

He also suffered “retaliatory solitary confinement with continuous lighting, sleep deprivation, public degradation in the restraint chair, and exposure to extreme violence and unsanitary conditions at the Facilities.”

Samsel’s attorney, Peter Haller, declined to comment on the freshly filed lawsuit.

In a prior court filing, Haller said, “Given the severity, duration, and documented multiplicity of the abuses suffered by Mr. Samsel, he is likely to be recognized as the most tortured individual by the Federal Government in recent American history.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the DOJ for comment but received no reply by publication time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 13:00

FIFA World Cup Gets Underway Across North America

The largest, most inclusive, and most widespread World Cup tournament in FIFA’s history kicks off with two games in Mexico today.

For the next several weeks, nearly 50 nations will compete in more than 100 games in stadiums spread out across Mexico, the United States, and Canada—the first time FIFA has allowed three countries to co-host the event.

Here is a breakdown (via The Epoch Times) of what to know...

Tournament Format

The World Cup begins with a “Group Stage,” which runs from June 11 to June 27, and consists of 72 matches in 16 cities across North America.

Several months prior, all 48 qualifying teams were placed into 12 groups of four.

• Group A: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, and Czechia.
• Group B: Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, and Switzerland.
• Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland.
• Group D: United States, Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey.
• Group E: Germany, Curacao, Ivory Coast, and Ecuador.
• Group F: The Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia.
• Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand.
• Group H: Spain, Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay.
• Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq, and Norway.
• Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, and Jordan.
• Group K: Portugal, Congo, Uzbekistan, and Colombia.
• Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, and Panama.

The top two teams in each group, as well as eight third-place finishers with the best records or most points overall, will advance to a single-game elimination round.

Those surviving 32 teams will drop to 16, then the remaining eight teams will play in the quarter-finals scheduled for July 9, 10, and 11.

The two semi-final matches are set for July 14 and July 15. The two winners will play in the final on July 19, while the two losers will play for third place the day before.

Where Will World Cup Games Take Place?

The teams will be spread out to 16 locations across the three North American host nations.

Mexico

Mexico City kicks things off on June 11 when Mexico hosts South Africa at 3 p.m. ET.

The capital city will host two other group stage games, with Colombia playing Uzbekistan at 10 p.m. on June 17, and Mexico playing Czechia at 9 p.m. on June 24. Mexico City will also host multiple games during the first and second rounds of elimination before the quarter finals.

Guadalajara, Mexico, will also participate in opening day excitement, hosting South Korea’s match against Czechia at 10 p.m.

This city will get a chance to host its home team when Mexico plays South Korea at 9 p.m. on June 18. It will also showcase a 10 p.m. match between Colombia and Congo on June 23, and an 8 p.m. game between Spain and Uruguay on June 26.

No games beyond the group stage will be played here, and safety concerns due to persisting cartel violence hover over the festivities.

Monterrey is the third location south of the border to host the World Cup. It will host Tunisia for two games: the first is against Sweden at 10 p.m. on June 14, and the second is against Japan at midnight on June 21. It’ll then host South Korea against South Africa at 9 p.m. on June 24, and then multiple games in the round of 32 and round of 16.

United States

Los Angeles gets the honor of being the World Cup’s first stop in the United States, with Team USA facing off against Paraguay at 9 p.m. on June 12.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to lead a delegation to the game that includes Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy and Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin. The State Department said that Rubio would meet with Paraguay’s President Santiago Peña “to advance the U.S.-Paraguay strategic partnership spanning regional security, trade and investment, and emerging technology.”

Los Angeles is also set to host Iran’s national team on June 15, just as the armed conflict between its Islamic regime and the United States appears to be ramping back up.

World Cup matches will take place in 10 other cities and regions across the United States, including Atlanta, Miami, the San Francisco Bay Area, New York/New Jersey, Houston, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle, Boston, and Philadelphia.

The defending champions, Argentina, and its iconic superstar Lionel Messi, will make their debut in Kansas City against Algeria at 9 p.m. on June 16.

World Cup quarter-finals will be held in Boston, Los Angeles, Miami, and Kansas City, while the semi-finals will be played in Dallas and Atlanta.

The World Cup final will be played at Met Life Stadium in New Jersey, the home of the New York Giants and the New York Jets. The play-off for third place will take place in Miami.

Canada

North of the border, Toronto and Vancouver will also host some games. Team Canada will play the first game in Toronto against Bosnia and Herzegovina at 3 p.m. on June 12, and then Australia will kick things off in Vancouver against Turkey at midnight on June 14.

Both cities will also host games during the first two elimination rounds.

Millions Coming From Around the World

An estimated 6.5 million people are expected to attend the World Cup games, with 40 percent of the fan base coming from outside the host countries.

Traveling fan groups were expected to come from World Cup staples like Brazil, Argentina, England, and Germany. Scotland’s 10,000-strong “Tartan Army” is also expected to make a comeback as their team qualifies for the first time since 1998.

Social media has already been filled with posts made by visiting Europeans finding new appreciation for different aspects of America in the lead-up to the games.

But the expected influx of visitors has triggered a need to increase the level of security as people gather to cheer on their team and celebrate the tournament.

FBI Director Kash Patel promised that his agency, alongside the Department of Homeland Security and law enforcement, will provide the “full range of counterterrorism expertise” to “ensure the safety of players, fans, and all Americans and visitors during the tournament.”

Canada announced it would spend up to $145 million in federal funding on increased security in Toronto and Vancouver for the World Cup.

Meanwhile in Mexico, more than 100,000 police officers, National Guardsmen, soldiers, and marines were expected to be deployed to its three host cities. Guadalajara alone has received more than 15,000 security officers after the city became the setting of deadly cartel activity in February with the killing of the head of a major cartel.

Who Will Win?

Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of global investment research at Goldman Sachs, published a cheat sheet for clients that used a forecasting model built around Elo ratings - the ranking system originally developed for chess - to handicap the tournament. His top pick diverges from the latest Polymarket odds, with Hatzius placing Spain at the top of the list as the most likely World Cup winner.

"The model says that Spain has a 26% probability of winning the trophy, followed by France at 19%, Argentina at 14%, Brazil at 8%, and England at 5%," Hatzius said.

He noted, "Spain is predicted to win because it has the highest Elo ranking, supported by scoring talent and good momentum into the competition. Argentina is penalised by the "winner's slump", i.e. the statistical underperformance of reigning champions in the following World Cup; France suffers from likely facing top-ranked Spain in the semifinals; and England underperforms its Elo rating given historical tournament disappointment, geographical headwinds (likely facing Mexico in high-altitude Mexico City), and a slightly unlucky draw." 

Hatzius built a regression model to estimate how many goals each team is likely to score against another, using nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978. The model shows a steep decline in goal scoring, with much of it occurring after World War II.

Elo measures national team strength based on results and opponent quality, updating as teams win, lose, or draw. By this metric, Hatzius and his team place Spain No. 1, ahead of Argentina and France, which differs slightly from FIFA's official men's rankings.

Most Likely Predicted Group Stage Results

Road To Winner

Unlike our previous notes on Goldman's World Cup probabilities in 2022, 2018, and 2014, the rise of Polymarket has changed the betting game, bringing prediction markets directly into the sports-betting mainstream.

The latest Polymarket odds show Spain at 17%, France at 16%, and England at 11%...

...putting market pricing in line with Goldman's model, which ranks Spain as the winner.

Professional subscribers can read the full World Cup note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 12:40

Emails Show Senior DOJ Officials Questioned Biden-Era Memo To Probe School Board Threats

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

Internal emails from the Biden-era Department of Justice (DOJ) show that senior officials objected to then-Attorney General Merrick Garland’s plan to use the FBI to investigate parents opposed to school policies.

Critics at the time said the policy change, which was contained in a memo signed by Garland, was calculated to intimidate parents protesting policies such as mask mandates and curriculum. Many of those who protested the memo were themselves heavily criticized by memo supporters.

The DOJ’s internal communications suggest that top officials in the DOJ opposed the policy days before it was publicly unveiled.

A DOJ source who did not wish to be identified confirmed to The Epoch Times late on June 10 that the emails, posted on X by independent journalist Lara Logan, were authentic.

The controversy itself goes back almost five years. Garland released a memo on Oct. 4, 2021, that called for federal law enforcement to deal with harassment and threats of violence allegedly made against school board members, teachers, and school employees.

“Threats against public servants are not only illegal, they run counter to our nation’s core values,” he said at the time.

“The Department takes these incidents seriously and is committed to using its authority and resources to discourage these threats, identify them when they occur, and prosecute them when appropriate,” he wrote in the memo.

In an email thread dated two days before that, senior DOJ officials discussed the upcoming shift in enforcement focus.

Minutes after Associate Deputy Attorney General Kevin Chambers advised his colleagues of the policy change, they began to push back.

Acting Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division Nicholas McQuaid wrote, “I strongly object to adding school official threats to the USAO meetings,” referring to meetings of the U.S. Attorney’s Office, a subagency of the DOJ that represents the federal government in court.

“They are not equivalent and treating them as such will damage our election threats work without actually having any real benefit in my view.”

Deputy Assistant Attorney General Kevin Driscoll wrote:

“I don’t think it’s possible to state how strongly I object to this.

“It will completely and totally nuke our election threats efforts, and will damage the reputation of the Public Integrity Section into the bargain.

“It’s like [they’re] affirmatively trying to make this thing not work and look political. If they do this, they might as well rename the damn thing the Anti-MAGA Task Force.”

Corey Amundson, head of the DOJ’s Public Integrity Section, replied:

“Exactly! Stupid, stupid, stupid.”

Driscoll answered, writing, “We will not do this. There is no conceivable connection to [Public Integrity Section] (indeed, I’m not seeing a federal interest of any kind). And if they’re going to make the AG’s memo to the field about this and election threats, I’m going to strongly recommend that they not send it.”

Amundson replied, saying, “Agreed. Also, makes no sense to have DOJ/FBI suddenly become the threats police. No limiting principle at all.”

Months after the memo was released, Senate Judiciary Committee Republicans, led by Sens. Charles Grassley of Iowa and Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, asked detailed questions concerning federal targeting of parents who voice their opinions at local school board meetings.

The 11 Republican lawmakers on the committee told then-Secretary of Education Michael Cardona in a Jan. 18, 2022, letter: “We recently learned that you may have requested that the National School Boards Association (NSBA) send to President [Joe] Biden its September 29, 2021, letter, which compared concerned parents speaking out at local school boards to domestic terrorists.

“That letter was the proximate cause of Attorney General Garland issuing a memorandum on October 4, 2021, directing the FBI and the various U.S. Attorneys to focus on harassment, intimidation, and threats of violence directed at school officials.

“That action by Attorney General Garland has created a dramatic chilling effect on parents throughout the country and is an inappropriate deployment of federal law enforcement.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 12:20

Cato Vs Heritage: Should the U.S. Go to War if China Invades Taiwan?

LIVE:

https://t.co/SyvVxuu7Gt

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 11, 2026

************************

While President Trump has softened his rhetoric on China since his recent visit to Beijing, he has continued to keep the answer to one question close to his chest: would the United States go to war to defend Taiwan if China attempts to seize the island by force?

Though perhaps a better question is Should we? Tonight, the Cato Institute and Heritage Foundation join ZeroHedge Debates to tackle that question.

Taking the case against military intervention is Cato’s Doug Bandow, who argues that a war with China over Taiwan would impose enormous costs on the United States while serving interests that are ultimately peripheral to American security, and well… there’s the risk of nuclear war.

Advocating intervention is Steve Yates of Heritage, who contends that abandoning Taiwan would shatter U.S. credibility throughout Asia, embolden Beijing, and fundamentally alter the global balance of power in China's favor.

Our returning host David Rand of the Human Reaction podcast will ask whether Taiwan represents a vital American interest or a dangerous strategic tripwire. And, assuming Taiwan is a vital interest, is diplomacy superior to provocative acts (ie arms packages) in the name of “deterrence”?

Despite Trump’s and Xi’s shared kind words, the U.S. approved an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan last December. There was to be another package amounting to an additional $14 billion, which was recently paused amid the Iran war, sending hawks into a frenzy. 

Debaters will also address the once-controversial Pentagon policy paper recommending the U.S. military blow up Taiwanese chip manufacturing plants in the event of a Chinese invasion… something the current #3 at the Pentagon, undersecretary of war for policy Ebridge Colby, called “table stakes”:

Disabling or destroying TSMC is table stakes if China is taking over Taiwan. Would we be so insane as to allow the world's key semiconductor company fall untouched into the hands of an aggressive PRC?

Taiwanese should realize that would be *the least* of their problems. https://t.co/Z8qmKxjWe9

— Elbridge Colby (@ElbridgeColby) February 24, 2024

Elbridge is the grandson of former CIA Director William Coby.

The debate begins tonight at 7pm ET, here on the ZH homepage, X feed, and YouTube and will also stream on the Human Reaction podcast.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 12:00

Pentagon Lockdown: Multiple Floors Evacuated Over Hazardous Materials Air Quality Incident

Several floors and corridors of the Pentagon were locked down and partially evacuated Thursday morning following the detection of a hazardous materials incident and air quality concerns, according to officials and multiple reports.

What we know...

• Floors 2 through 5 in corridors 4 through 7 are currently locked down.
• Personnel observed wearing gas masks and full chemical protective gear.
• Pentagon Force Protection Agency’s HazMat team, along with Arlington County Fire Department, are on scene.
• Shelter-in-place order issued for affected areas; additional testing underway (estimated 1–2 hours).
• No injuries reported at this time.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell confirmed that building systems detected an air quality issue, triggering standard hazardous materials response protocols. Response teams are actively investigating the source.

NEW: Pentagon employees have received the following notice this morning as the building has gone on lockdown due to a hazmat-related situation. pic.twitter.com/yCDEmpg7mc

— Aaron Parnas (@AaronParnas) June 11, 2026

Developing...

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 11:20

House Rejects Short-Term Spy Law Extension As GOP Races To Preserve FISA Surveillance Tool Before Friday Deadline

Update (1100ET): A key spy law could expire after the House blocked its short-term reauthorization.

The June 11 vote set back an effort to renew Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).

President Trump’s selection of Bill Pulte as acting director of national intelligence drove Democratic opposition to reauthorizing Section 702. Some Republicans have voiced concerns about how the authority, though targeted at foreigners abroad, enables the incidental warrantless surveillance of Americans.

The White House could attempt to bridge the gap with an executive order.

In a June 6 letter to the White House, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) recommended such a course of action in anticipation of a possible lapse.

As American Greatness detailed earlier, The House is preparing to vote on a short-term extension of a key federal surveillance program after Senate negotiations stalled, setting up a battle over national security authorities that are set to expire this week.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, announced Wednesday that the chamber will vote Thursday morning on a temporary reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, extending the authority through July 2.

The vote comes ahead of a Friday deadline and follows resistance in the Senate, where Democrats blocked efforts to quickly advance a similar extension.

“We’re not having a great amount of confidence that they’re going to be able to get that done,” Johnson said of the Senate. “So, the House will once again do our job.”

The push for a short-term extension gained momentum after President Donald Trump urged Congress to act following a meeting with Johnson earlier Wednesday.

“FISA 702 is very important to our Military, and keeping the American People safe, especially during the World Cup and America250 Celebrations,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“If nothing is done, this important Law will expire this week. I am asking Congress to send me a short-term extension of FISA to provide time for the selection and confirmation of a permanent Head of the Agency,” the president added.

Section 702 has long been viewed by intelligence officials as a critical tool for gathering foreign intelligence and monitoring threats to national security.

However, the effort to extend the program has become entangled in a political dispute over Trump’s appointment of housing official Bill Pulte as acting director of national intelligence.

Senate Democrats have insisted they will not support a reauthorization agreement while Pulte remains in the position.

Johnson must also contend with opposition from conservative Republicans who have repeatedly called for reforms to the surveillance program. Several GOP lawmakers have argued that any extension should include a warrant requirement before federal agencies can access certain information.

Asked whether he would support the temporary extension, Rep. Tim Burchett, R-TN., said, “probably not,” citing the lack of a warrant provision.

If the House measure fails, Section 702 is expected to expire on June 12.

The timing has concerned supporters of the program because Congress is scheduled to leave Washington for a one-week recess after Thursday’s votes. Unless House leadership changes those plans, lawmakers would not return until June 23.

The recess would leave the surveillance authority inactive during a period that includes World Cup events expected to attract large international crowds as well as celebrations connected to America’s 250th anniversary.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 11:15

USPS Proposes Halting Mail Ballot Delivery To States That Refuse Voter Roll Verification

Via American Greatness,

The US Postal Service (USPS) has proposed a new rule requiring states to share voter information related to mail-in and absentee voting. The proposal follows a March executive order from Trump aimed at tightening regulations governing mail-in voting in federal elections.

Trump has made election integrity a central focus of his second administration, issuing executive orders designed to require proof of citizenship for voters and combat mail-in voting fraud. The administration has argued that stronger verification measures are necessary to restore confidence in elections and safeguard the voting process.

Several of those initiatives have faced legal challenges. Courts have blocked certain provisions, including proof-of-citizenship requirements, while appeals remain pending. Democratic-led states have also filed lawsuits challenging the administration’s mail-in voting policies.

As litigation continues, the Postal Service has moved forward with a proposal directing states and the USPS to coordinate on identifying eligible mail-in and absentee voters.

Under the proposed rule, states would submit lists of voters requesting mail-in ballots, along with personalized barcodes assigned to each ballot.

The Postal Service would then return a finalized “Mail-In and Absentee Participation List” to each state’s chief election official. The list would contain the names of approved voters and the corresponding ballot barcodes associated with each voter.

Under the proposal, only voters included on the final participation list would be eligible to receive mail-in or absentee ballots.

The USPS said the new system would help improve transparency and provide election officials and law enforcement with additional tools to verify election procedures.

“This provision will help determine adherence to federal law and facilitate law enforcement efforts,” the proposal states.

“For example, the provided lists will evidence how many ballots have been mailed, and allow law enforcement officials to compare the total number of mailed ballots to the total number of received ballots to detect potential issues meriting further investigation.”

Election integrity supporters argue that the process would create a clearer chain of custody for mailed ballots and help identify irregularities that might otherwise go undetected.

The Postal Service issued the proposal May 29, one day after Trump-appointed US District Judge Carl J. Nichols denied a request from Democratic plaintiffs seeking to block the administration’s mail-in voting executive order.

Nichols ruled that the challengers failed to sufficiently demonstrate that the order would cause “imminent and irreparable harm.”

The plaintiffs have appealed that decision, and the Postal Service proposal remains subject to ongoing legal uncertainty while the broader litigation proceeds.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 11:00

After SpaceX IPO, Jefferies Lays Out Five Takeaways For Space Boom Into 2030s

Friday’s SpaceX IPO will be a defining moment not only for capital markets but also for the booming space industry and Elon Musk’s broader industrial empire, which has catapulted America to the lead in the space race against Communist China and Russia.

Ahead of the four-times-oversubscribed SpaceX IPO, we explained to readers how to profit from the incoming data center boom in low-Earth orbit and broke down the mechanics of the IPO in an easy-to-understand format.

Next, we want to give readers the opportunity to understand where the space industry is headed to position bullish bets, as this industry will likely have tailwinds for years to come. It's all about following the money.

We are leaning on Jefferies analyst Aniket Shah’s Wednesday report, which provided a roadmap for understanding the space industry through five easy takeaways.

1. The global space economy has reached $600bn, potentially tripling to $1.8trn by 2035. Commercial activity accounts for 80% and spans satellite TV, broadband, GPS infrastructure, and satellite manufacturing. The remaining 20% is government spending. Within the investable "backbone" of physical infrastructure, state-sponsored spending is projected to grow faster than commercial, rising from $125bn to $320bn (+256%) vs $205bn to $435bn (+212%) for commercial over the next decade. Defense is the fastest-growing category within the space economy.

2. The US accounts for 60% of global government spending on space; China ranks second. US government space spending is ~$80bn, more than the rest of the world combined. China spends ~ $20bn, but this figure is not PPP-adjusted, meaning its effective spending power is materially closer to the US than the nominal gap implies. Japan is a notable third player, having designated space as one of Prime Minister Takeshi's 17 strategic sectors (see here & here). China has similarly identified space as a strategic area in its 15th Five-Year Plan (see here & here).

3. Space Force budget surged 40% in one year, fueled by the Golden Dome program. Golden Dome is a top strategic priority driving the budget surge. Golden Dome is a multi-layered missile defense initiative that integrates space-based sensors, interceptors, and AI-enabled command and control to address ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missile threats. Space Force now commands ~$40bn and the Missile Defense Agency ~$10bn, totaling ~$50bn, far exceeding NASA's budget ($24.4bn).

4. SpaceX has captured a structural share of federal space dollars. It is NASA's largest commercial contractor and plays a critical role across launch services, communications, IT, and the broader data layer of the space architecture. The US government has effectively outsourced significant space activity to SpaceX, creating an inextricable linkage between federal spending priorities and the company's business.

5. US vs China: Moon Race 2.0 is accelerating. The rivalry plays out across three dimensions: lunar programs, global coalitions, and codified policies.

• Lunar programs: The US targets a crewed lunar landing by 2028 and a lunar outpost by 2030; China targets a crewed landing by 2030 and an outpost by 2035.
• Global coalitions: The US-led Artemis Accords have 67 signatories, while the China-Russia International Lunar Research Station coalition has <20.
• Codified policies: President Trump has issued executive orders on Iron Dome for America, commercial space competition, and ensuring US space superiority. China's 15th Five-Year Plan also prioritizes space competitiveness.

Now, let's visualize where the space industry is headed into the 2030s:

The global space economy has reached $600bn

The space economy is set to triple to $1.8trn by 2035

The US accounts for 60% of global space spending

National defense is reshaping the US space economy

Space Force budget surges 40%, fueled by Golden Dome

SpaceX has captured a structural share of federal space dollars

US vs China: Moon Race 2.0 is accelerating

Professional subscribers can read more on the space industry here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 10:40

ActBlue CEO Pleads The Fifth During House Panel Hearing

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

ActBlue CEO Regina Wallace-Jones invoked the Fifth Amendment on Wednesday before the House Administration Committee, surrounding reports that she may have misled Congress about how the platform vets foreign donations.

The U.S. Capitol building on June 9, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Wallace-Jones had originally agreed to testify voluntarily before Congress concerning ActBlue's vetting process for foreign contributions to domestic candidates. But her attorneys requested a congressional subpoena on Monday, ahead of her June 10 testimony, according to committee lawmakers.

The House asked Wallace-Jones to testify after a recent New York Times report included memos from Covington & Burling, a law firm that worked for ActBlue, warning that she may have misled Congress about the process for screening overseas donations.

ActBlue is the dominant Democratic fundraising platform. In 2025 alone, the platform reported raising almost $1.8 billion from 52 million contributions, and Q4 that year marked the single-largest off-cycle quarter in ActBlue history.

Under federal election law, foreign nationals or those who are not permanent residents are forbidden to donate directly to federal candidates or political action committees.

Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) said only Americans should decide their elections during the hearing titled, "Preventing Fraudulent Donations: Transparency, Verification, and Accountability."

🚨 HOLY SMOKES. ActBlue just PLED THE 5TH and REFUSED to answer about getting foreign donations infiltrating US politics on behalf of Democrats

She wouldn't even refute getting RUSSIAN money! 🤯

ActBlue is a FRAUD group. Shut it down!

REP. JIM JORDAN: Your board chairman said… pic.twitter.com/iYfda3A6so

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) June 10, 2026

"Ms. Wallace-Jones is here today because there's a significant concern that ActBlue may have allowed foreign donations on their platform, lied to Congress, and withheld responsive documents from a congressional subpoena," Steil said. "All three of those actions are illegal."

Steil said Wallace-Jones provided a 2023 letter to Congress stating that ActBlue prevents foreign donations by requiring donors with a foreign address to provide U.S. passport information. If a contribution appears to be from a foreign address, ActBlue contacts the donor to request U.S. passport information. The platform would then refund the contribution if ActBlue was unable to contact the donor.

"The New York Times reported that ActBlue's outside counsel determined those three steps are not always followed," Steil said.

Surrounded by attorneys, Wallace-Jones did not answer any questions posed during the hearing, citing the "attorney-client privilege and my Fifth Amendment rights under the Constitution."

Wallace-Jones wrote an opinion piece in The Washington Post that appeared on the day of her hearing, saying she would invoke her Fifth Amendment "rights against self-incrimination."

"This is a proceeding designed to build an illegitimate criminal case against us. I cannot and will not let my words be misused in that way," she opined.

Democrats on the committee called the hearing political theater and questioned why the Republican fundraising platform, WinRed, wasn't receiving equal scrutiny from Republicans.

"We're here because Republicans want to talk about ActBlue, not because they're serious about strengthening campaign finance laws or actually strengthening the abuse of fraud in this country," said Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), ranking member of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

Administrative Committee ranking member Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) said Republicans are ignoring alleged problems with WinRed. He accused the platform of victimizing elderly Americans.

Morelle also requested a subpoena for Republican Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton, who, as Texas attorney general, sued ActBlue in state court on April 20. The lawsuit alleged that the platform misleads consumers by illegally accepting fraudulent foreign donations for federal and state candidates.

ActBlue filed a countersuit on May 1 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts, seeking to block Paxton's lawsuit. Attorneys for the platform asked a federal judge to declare Paxton's ongoing ActBlue investigation and lawsuit unconstitutional, alleging violations of the First and Fourteenth Amendments.

ActBlue accused Paxton of escalating his investigation after donations for James Talarico, his Democratic opponent in the Texas Senate race, surged.

Paxton responded on the day the suit was filed, saying in an X post that ActBlue was "trying to take [him] down."

U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) speaks at a hearing with the House Administration subcommittee on Elections in Washington on June 24, 2021. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 10:20

Bessent Pulls Trigger On Using Frozen Funds To Reimburse Gulf Allies: 'Iran Will Pay'

US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced on X Thursday morning that Washington is moving forward on a plan to compensate America's Gulf regional allies for damage sustained during Iranian counterattacks on their energy and civic infrastructure.

He made clear that any damage to Gulf allies would be paid for with frozen Iranian funds, which Tehran leadership has long blasted as blatant theft.

According to Bessent's latest announcement: "The Iranian regime will lose the zero-sum game it is playing." The Treasury Secretary listed out the following new policy and plan:

• Any damage it inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian Accounts.
• Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.
• Every attack Iran launches will only deepen the economic and financial consequences it faces.

via Reuters

Interestingly, there is implicit here a possible acknowledgement that US forces won't be able to immediately be able to stop Iran from enacting its toll collection protocol, which it has hinted is being done in coordination - or at least with an 'understanding' - from Oman, which itself has come under pressure from the Trump administration of late.

Over eighty oil, gas, and vital infrastructure facilities across the Gulf have been hit - with most of the attacks having occurred in March and April - with one recent report estimating up to $58 billion in damage. Iran has sought to justify these attacks as 'retaliation' for these Gulf countries hosting American bases during the US unprovoked assault on the Islamic Republic.

An unnamed US official had previously told ABC's Senior White House correspondent Selina Wang last weekend: "Treasury will utilize all tools available to allow Iranian assets to be made available to our Gulf allies to support rebuilding and repairs for any future damage caused by Iran."

"The Secretary has also directed his team to assess conditions amongst our Gulf allies and request comprehensive estimates of the costs associated with repairing damage Iran has inflicted since the start of the conflict," the source had added.

Also as part of that earlier reporting, it was revealed:

The Iranian assets could include frozen assets and ships the U.S. has seized. The administration is reaching out to Gulf allies right now and asking for their evaluation.

This is only likely to further derail efforts to get Tehran and Washington back to the negotiating table. Already the US has balked at Iran's own insistent it be given reparations for damage done.

Iran is meanwhile still demanding that its billions in funds long frozen by Washington be given back as part of a deal. The Trump administration has so far rejected this, at least in terms of its public-facing position.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 10:00

War And Piece

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Sorry, Bank of Canada (rates held at 2.25%), Chinese CPI and PPI (1.2% and 3.9% y-o-y headline) US CPI (0.5% m-o-m and 4.2% y-o-y headline, 0.2% and 2.9% core), and the ECB today: you all matter but are just pieces of the global picture one now needs to finish: the war vs. Iran.

Changing the recent pattern, President Trump said he would strike Iran again today and did. At time of writing, nearly 50 Tomahawk missiles had been fired alongside airstrikes against radar and drone installations, with a disputed report that a petrochemicals plant was also hit. Even by the standards of the ‘peacefire’ --which, as I’d argued yesterday morning, Iran’s leadership then agreed no longer suits them-- this is a major escalation.

However, the US is still holding back compared to what it can do militarily, and Israel is sitting on its hands. Notably, Trump told Fox News he has been in direct contact with senior Iranian leadership, a new development, and they had asked him to stop bombing: to which he claims he told them to sign the deal on the table, or on Thursday evening he will “Bomb the s**t out of them.” In other words, hits against infrastructure, energy, and nuclear sites, can’t be ruled out.

The immediate Iranian response has been to declare Hormuz entirely closed to all ships. However, despite the fact that Iran was prepared for these US strikes there have, as yet, been no successful counterstrikes against US bases in the Middle East or against GCC energy and water infrastructure. Will this happen with a lag? If not is Iran unable to do so, or just unwilling to? Equally, will Iran act with the Houthis to close the Bab-el-Mandeb and Red Sea, making this energy crisis far worse?

These are staggeringly important geopolitical questions on which global markets, and the BoC and Chinese and US inflation, will ultimately pivot.

So far, the market reaction has been relatively mild – oil only up around $2. Perhaps part of that is down to another piece of the Iran puzzle that has befuddled energy experts and visitors from outside the field – what is happening in terms of oil flows from Hormuz.

Trump had yesterday announced the US is taking “millions of barrels of oil” from Iran, causing the usual consternation. A breakdown of what he meant comes from shipping maven @mercoglianos, who argues the US secretly resumed Project Freedom to escort ships through Hormuz using autonomous vehicles, aircraft, and drones to escort ships through the southern Strait near Oman. Very Large Crude Carriers are exiting the Gulf, conducting ship-to-ship transfers to smaller tankers near Oman, then returning to pick up more oil. In that regard, oil can flow even as the number of ships stuck in the Gulf appears unchanged. War risk insurance, potentially provided by the US Development Finance Corporation, could be covering these few ships making the transits. Yet Iran has been targeting them and the US responding with airstrikes: the Apache helicopter just shot down, triggering a new US attack, was likely part of this operation.

Of course, what may have been happening invisibly, despite 24/7 market coverage, can’t compensate for normal Gulf flows, which is why the plunge in the US and Japan’s SPR and a huge drop in China’s oil imports --none of which are sustainable-- are doing the heavy lifting to keep oil below $100. That dynamic always pointed to escalation: will it be military now, via the US; with others later as more energy panic kicks in; or via more backchannel diplomacy from China? 

Regardless, it’s hard to make economic or central bank forecasts without one for the Iran War, as the FT says airlines are drawing up cuts for an 'ugly' winter’ due to stubbornly high jet fuel prices; Reuters notes global container shipping rates are soaring and “Fuel analysts and maritime experts warn it could take around a year for bunker fuel supplies to return to normal even if Trump is able to quickly clinch an Iran deal”; and the UK Telegraph argues farmers may have to stop planting crops without government support.

But geopolitics and geoeconomics are to the fore everywhere and it’s not only energy and petrochemicals being squeezed.

In the Middle East, Turkey’s President Erdogan claimed Israel’s strikes on Lebanon and Syria threaten it and “its aggression must be stopped”, after talking about the liberation of Jerusalem. Israel’s diplomatic response was equally undiplomatic; Saudi Arabia resumed imports from Lebanon after a five-year hiatus; and a Saudi-Turkey rail link may be completed within three years.

In the Americas, Trump suggested he may not renew the USMCA trade deal with Mexico and Canada; and US Secretary of War Hegseth warned Cuba that any arms procurement by it seen as threatening the US could invite a confrontation - we are talking about 1956 at the moment, so why not 1962 too?

In Europe, five capitals are reportedly calling to freeze voting rights for new EU members, radically changing the structure of the Union; Politico reports ‘French far-right firebrand’ Zemmour is embracing MAGA to try to pay political dividends at home ahead of the 2027 presidential election; and the South China Morning Post asks ‘As de-dollarisation trends persist, can the yuan take the euro’s place?’, meaning taking the #2 spot in global settlements from the single currency.

In Australia, the political scene continues to churn with talk of a ‘non-compete’ clause and voting preference deal between the centre-right Liberals and populist right One Nation that has suddenly soared in the polls.

In Asia, Taiwan fired US mobile missile launchers into the waters facing China for the first time as “a message of resolve”, according to the Wall Street Journal; the US has asked China to resume rare earth exports to Japan, which have been cut off, as Tokyo pivots to US tungsten scrap exports to fill that gap, and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s curbs on cobalt exports have sparked shortages for everyone, including China; Japan’s parliament passed a revised economic security law to support overseas projects (as Bloomberg asks ‘Who’s Afraid of ‘Japanese Neo-Militarism’? Nobody’ - that’s arguably not true; and BOJ Governor Ueda has been hospitalized and is expected to miss the June policy meeting. Get well soon and perhaps be can follow the Iran news from there.

Indeed, now back to whatever piece of the war you happen to be focusing on.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 09:40

Iran Threatens Elon Musk's Gulf-Area Starlink Ground Stations In Suspicious Timing Ahead Of SpaceX IPO

Summary:

• Iran Threatens Musk's Starlink Ground Bases In Gulf Area Ahead Of IPO  

• Massive SpaceX IPO Demand Coming From Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds

IranIntlbrk is the X handle for Iran International's breaking-news account and cites Tehran-aligned Fars News Agency, stating that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has placed the economic interests of Elon Musk in West Asia, including Arab countries and Israel, under consideration on a new target list.

IranIntlbrk continued:

1. Fars News Agency reported that this action is under consideration following claims by the IRGC-affiliated outlet that the U.S. and Israeli militaries' use of infrastructure managed by Elon Musk, including Starlink, has been proven.

2. A media outlet affiliated with the IRGC wrote that Starlink's ground stations in Israel, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, alongside SpaceX shareholders including the infrastructure of the two companies "Al-Fazabi" and "Exchange," are among the new targets of the Islamic Republic.

The IRGC's threat against Musk's Starlink ground stations (Starlink Gateways) across the region should come as no surprise. IRGC forces have already demonstrated a willingness to strike Gulf data centers, including the reported Shahed drone attacks on two AWS data centers in the UAE.

The timing of the IRGC's threat against Musk is notable. It comes one day ahead of the SpaceX IPO, suggesting Tehran is trying to remain relevant in the news cycle with another round of big-bad warnings aimed at U.S. tech giants, Gulf allies, and critical communications infrastructure.

Starlink Service Map

On Wednesday, we reported that massive demand for the SpaceX IPO was coming from Gulf sovereign wealth funds.

Also today, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on X, "The Iranian regime will lose the zero-sum game it is playing. Any damage it inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian accounts."

Massive SpaceX IPO Demand Coming From Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds 

One week ago, SpaceX kicked off its institutional roadshow, headlined by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who hosted a nationwide "live interactive discussion" with private wealth clients.

The latest signal of investor demand comes from the Gulf, where massive sovereign wealth funds are reportedly seeking allocations in the IPO ahead of its expected Friday debut, according to Bloomberg News.

The report says Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund and Kuwait Investment Authority have each placed orders for the IPO worth $1 billion to $5 billion, while the Qatar Investment Authority is also expected to make a significant commitment.

The report continued:

Entities based in the region are already prominent shareholders in Elon Musk's rocket, satellite and AI firm, and many are sitting on large paper gains based on the billionaire's targeted valuation of $1.8 trillion, the people said. It wasn't immediately clear how much of the planned outlay is intended to prevent dilution of existing stakes after SpaceX's listing.

The interest from the Gulf is part of a broader rush into the deal from global institutional investors, whose orders have exceeded the number of shares on offer. Some have bid for $10 billion or more of stock, Bloomberg News has reported, though the eventual allocations might be smaller.

In a separate report, Reuters says the IPO is three-and-a-half to four times oversubscribed, highlighting massive institutional demand for what is shaping up to be the largest listing on record and a defining moment for the space economy.

Elon Musk has joined several Zoom meetings with potential investors, while SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen were expected to meet with roughly 300 institutional investors at a Morgan Stanley lunch in Manhattan.

Goldman Sachs was selected as the lead bank for the IPO, alongside Morgan Stanley. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup are also among the 23 banks working on the deal, offering a staggering $75 billion by selling about 555.6 million shares. The planned IPO price is about $135 per share.

Why SpaceX's IPO Is drawing record investor demand...

We offered readers a complete deep dive into the mechanics of the SpaceX offering and how to trade the world's biggest IPO (read the report). SpaceX's underwriters have shut off investor access to the offering in China and Hong Kong, primarily due to regulatory and compliance concerns.

However, there is a concerted effort by unhinged leftist lawmakers (such as Elizabeth Warren) and left-wing pension funds to delay or deny the SpaceX IPO, mainly for political brownie points. They appear to view the sudden new wealth generated for Elon Musk (and his employees and investors) as absolutely horrifying...

NEW: Elizabeth Warren is calling for the SEC to delay the mega SpaceX IPO.

Warren cites concerns about "questionable valuation," governance structure & mandatory arbitration pic.twitter.com/4mQqzTtYRs

— Matt Egan (@MattEganCNN) June 10, 2026

... given that Musk is pro-humanity and seeks to liberate the world's minds from toxic progressive causes.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 09:26

AI Price Wars Begin: OpenAI Considers "Drastic Price Cuts" In Pursuit Of Anthropic Customers

Earlier today, in a report discussing how "AI bills are out of control", JPMorgan tech guru and TMT salesman, Mark Schilsky wrote that "most of my high level investor discussions focus on one major topic: when will the party end? Put another way, tech investors have made so much money in Semis so quickly that they are looking for potential warning signs that the music is about to stop. Predicting such an end is incredibly difficult. As such, investors are searching for forward-looking indicators that might suggest the AI party is nearing a peak." 

Here, the JPM trader highlighted perhaps the clearest indicator that the music was about to stop: "A slowdown in the growth of the annualized run-rate revenues of the major AI labs. If there is any sort of second derivative ‘kink’ in their growth algorithms, that could portend a future problem for the AI trade."

In response to this, we pointed to just such a "slowdown in the run-rate revenues", when we showed that the Silicon Data token price index is down for 7 straight days to a level last seen in mid-January, or long before the current agentic craze started. Almost as if it knew something... 

Source

Turns out it did: late on Wednesday, with futures surging and Korean stocks erasing a nearly 5% drop and turning green, and euphoria generally back front and center, the WSJ may have burst the AI bubble when it reported that - contrary to conventional wisdom that token prices will magically go to infinity - OpenAI, which has been badly lagging both the revenue and IPO race with Anthropic in recent months - was considering "drastically lowering the prices it charges users" in a panic scramble to regain market share and win back customers from archrival Anthropic.

And so, at a time when there is suddenly a mass realization that token prices had been soared in recent weeks, a wake-up call which JPM lovingly described as follows: "investors have been discussing the possibility that much of the token spend that corporate America is currently incurring is ‘wasted’. Anecdotes from companies like UBER aren’t helping this narrative", OpenAI is weighing significant cuts to what it charges for tokens. Hilariously, the move would be in anticipation of similar cuts the company expects at Anthropic, which is trying to double how much it charges for its latest model, Fable, which provides at best a very modest modest improvement in performance over Opus 4.8.

In short, we now have a classical deflationary race to the bottom, precisely the opposite of what the profit-strapped industry desperately needs to grow into its gargantuan balance sheets (and massive SPVs); Instead, the AI world is about to get hit with a collapse in both revenues and profit margins, while cash burn goes into full-on incinerator mode.

Warning that "business executives have begun to balk at the high prices for AI usage", the WSJ writes that OpenAI CEO Altman said at a recent event that costs had become “a huge issue.”

“I think we’ll have a lot of ways we can help people get more value for less spend,” he said.

In other words, LLMs tried to push up token prices to and beyond their breaking point... and succeeded.

And now it's time for the brutal drop: a drastic price war will erode the profit margins of both companies, which already lose billions of dollars because of the enormous cost for computing resources needed to run AI systems. 

Altman's decision to start a price war was prompted by OpenAI's attempt to catch up with its younger rival in the race to win enterprise customers that are paying large amounts of money for AI tools that can improve workplace productivity. Anthropic’s revenue recently surged
"after its coding tool Claude Code went viral among software engineers, and the five-year-old startup surpassed OpenAI’s valuation for the first time."

Or at least that's the WSJ version of events. In reality what happened is that Anthropic quietly annualized the one-time bumper revenue from Feb-May during the agentic splurge when nobody had any idea what they were paying, to come up with the ludicrous $47BN ARR, which they then actively paraded ahead of their IPO. But let's see what Anthropic's ARR is next month will be after clients finally check their token bills.

Sure enough, as we have been writing repeatedly in recent weeks, "some corporations poured so much money into Anthropic’s products that their leaders are now seeking to rein in spending. Earlier this year, an Uber executive said the company had maxed out its 2026 budget for agentic, or autonomous, AI use, and another company leader said last month that it was difficult to link AI coding productivity improvements to new customer features."

In other words, yet again the age-old question of whether and when AI will have a positive ROI rears its ugly head, and the answer is not any time soon... if ever. 

Such comments from many executives have triggered a broader debate within Silicon Valley about so-called “tokenmaxxing,” or the practice of using as many tokens as possible to boost productivity, including in ways that don’t generate returns on investment. That may have worked 6 months ago when LLMs were giving out compute for free to capture market share, but it doesn't work now that all the major AI companies are suddenly charging an arm and a kidney for an "agent" that responds to emails. 

As the WSJ concludes, "a price war would be an early test of the strength of both companies’ business models ahead of hotly anticipated public listings." OpenAI and Anthropic have captured the majority of revenue from new AI products, powering their rise. But an underlying risk that investors have long identified is the interchangeability of their products, and the ease with which customers can abandon one for the other. 

There is a bigger risk: as we noted one week ago, in the coming price war, neither OpenAI nor Anthropic will win. Instead it will be the country that has made reverse engineering Western technology and then selling it back to the west at 90% off, into an art form. Yes, China is about to enter the chatbot. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 09:15

US Initial Jobless Claims Jump To 4-Month-Highs

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time jumped to 229k last week (more than the 220k expected) and the highest in four months...

Source: Bloomberg

Pennsylvania, California, and Minnesota are the states seeing the largest rise in claims last week...

Continuing jobless claims also rose last week to 1.795mm Americans - highest in two months, but still relatively low in the context of the last two years...

Source: Bloomberg

The bottom line is that while initial jobless claims are rising, they remain low by historical standards and continue to run below year-ago levels.

Taken together with the May payrolls report, the data suggest that labor-market momentum remains firm.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 09:08

Bill Gates Tells Congress That Epstein Exploited Knowledge Of His Adultery

Microsoft founder and mega-billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates told Congress that Jeffrey Epstein exploited knowledge of Gates' multiple marital infidelities. Gates insists, however, that he committed no crimes and that the women he had adulterous sexual relations with were not associated with Epstein. Nonetheless, Gates' highlighting of Epstein's leveraging of Gates' sexual secrets fans suspicions that he sought to exploit similar secrets of other powerful people. 

"I never witnessed nor had any indication that Epstein was engaged in ongoing criminal conduct. I never went to his island, his ranch, or his Florida home. I have never victimized anyone. While he may have sought to foster a personal relationship, I was never interested in that and never reciprocated," Gates said in his opening remarks, which were published by the House Oversight committee. His testimony on Wednesday was given behind closed doors. 

Bill Gates with an unidentified but manifestly well-proportioned brunette number, in a photo from the Epstein files (House Oversight Committee)

Gates told legislators that Epstein became aware of Gates' serial philandering with three different women via a mutual acquaintance.  “Based on what has been released in the files, Epstein was working to use information about my infidelities—in addition to many lies that he layered on top—to pressure me to re-engage with him,” Gates said. “He was unsuccessful in this effort, but it shows some of the ways he tried to leverage his interactions with me to further his agenda.”

The three women were two Russians and another woman who's been described as a doctor, according to a leak of Gates testimony leaked to the Wall Street Journal. Committee Democrats held a press conference in which they said Gates acknowledged having been in the company of women that were abused by Epstein or his colleagues. It's expected that the Oversight Committee will release a transcript of Gates' give-and-take with lawmakers, which reportedly became combative at times. 

Documents from the Epstein files revealed that Epstein and Gates met on several occasions after Epstein's 2008 conviction. Gates told the House committee that he met Epstein through "people I trusted in my professional and philanthropic work," and that Epstein promoted his ability to give tax and estate guidance. Gates expressed regret for not vetting Epstein. "I recall being aware that Epstein had faced prior legal issues, but I did not fully understand the extent of the crimes he committed. I accepted the introduction without applying the scrutiny I should have," said Gates in his opening remarks. He said he stopped communicating or meeting with Epstein in December 2014, after concluding that Epstein "would never deliver on his promises" of reeling in donors for the Gates Foundation.  

In an undated photo, Gates appears with Jeffrey Epstein's pilot, Lawrence Visoski (House Oversight Committee Democrats via USA Today)

Tapping a tiny sliver of his net worth of more than $100 billion, Gates went to truly extraordinary lengths to prepare for his appearance on the Hill -- even assembling a mockup of the room in which he would testify. That replica was put together in Palm Desert, California, near his home, the Journal reported:

The replica included a podium on one side with wood paneled furniture flanked by gold curtains to display where lawmakers would traditionally sit. The other side featured a large wooden table for the person responding to questions, along with microphones and several cameras, to mimic the space in Washington. 

Defying President Trump's wishes, the Epstein files were forced into public view by House representatives led by Republican Thomas Massie and Democrat Ro Khanna. Massie used a "discharge petition" to force a vote on legislation requiring the release of the documents. Last month, Massie lost a primary challenge funded by pro-Israel billionaires whose involvement in the contest made it the most expensive primary race in US history.  

Thomas Massie says he will publicly read the names of Epstein clients before leaving Congress.

Massie also says there will be no high-level arrests while Todd Blanche and Kash Patel remain in power. pic.twitter.com/bICUDSvgPD

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 24, 2026

On a recent Meet the Press appearance, Massie said there are many files still hidden from the public, and he accused the acting US attorney general of violating the Epstein Files Transparency Act: "Todd Blanche is violating the law. There's still millions of files they haven't released." Massie promised to name more people whose identities are still redacted in the Epstein files. He also made an intriguing reference to Trump's First Lady: 

"I don't think it's possible to get to convictions with Todd Blanche at the top and with the FBI director, Kash Patel, at the top, because they have effectively both perjured themselves by saying there's nobody else in the files. Even Melania doesn't believe that. The First Lady knows that Jeffrey Epstein didn't act alone."

Massie has another seven months to help us understand exactly what that means -- a time during which he's empowered to spill Epstein-file secrets on the House floor with impunity, thanks to the Constitution's Speech and Debate Clause.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:45

Core Producer Prices Cooler Than Expected In April, Goods Costs Jump Most On Record

After yesterday's mixed bag from consumer prices (headline in-line but core cooler than expected and goods deflating), US Producer Prices were expected to keep accelerating higher (on a YoY basis) in May and they did... by more than expected.

Headline PPI rose 1.1% MoM in May (much hotter than the 0.7% MoM exp) but April's 1.4% MoM rise was revised down to +1.1% MoM. This left producer prices up 6.5% YoY (vs 6.4% exp and up from revised lower 5.7% in April)...

Source: Bloomberg

Services costs are the biggest contributor to the rise in the headline print...

And, echoing CPI, Core PPI (ex Food and Energy) printed cooler than expected at +0.4% MoM (+0.5% exp) with core PPI up 4.9% YoY (well below the 5.4% YoY exp and flat with April's revised lower 4.9%)...

Source: Bloomberg

PPI details:

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved up 2.8% in May, the largest increase since data were first calculated in December 2009. 80% of the broad-based advance can be traced to a 10.7-percent jump in prices for final demand energy. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods also rose, 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively.

• Product detail: Over half of the May advance in prices for final demand goods is attributable to a 23.4% increase in the index for gasoline. Prices for diesel fuel, jet fuel, plastic resins and materials, industrial chemicals, and natural gas liquids also rose. In contrast, the index for pork fell 10.1 percent. Prices for residential electric power and for sanitary paper products also declined.

Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved up 0.3% in May following a 0.7% advance in April. Leading the May increase, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing rose 0.7%. The index for final demand transportation and warehousing services moved up 2.6 percent. Conversely, margins for final demand trade services decreased 1.1 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers).

• Product detail: Over 40% of the May advance in the index for final demand services can be traced to a 4.8-percent rise in prices for portfolio management. The indexes for truck transportation of freight; securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; chemicals and allied products wholesaling; food wholesaling; and airline passenger services also increased. In contrast, margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling fell 1.9 percent. The indexes for fuels and lubricants retailing and for residential real estate loans (partial) also moved lower.

Trade Services dipped 1.1% MoM but Goods prices surged 2.8% MoM (driven by spiking Energy costs)...

This is the biggest jump in PPI Goods on record...

Commodity prices are accelerating...

But, arguably, the Energy component has peaked here...

And memory prices actually dipped according to PPI data...

The CPI-PPI spread is signaling increased pressure on corporate margins...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-hike expectations ticked higher on the report (but are stable around one fuill hike in 2026 for now).

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:40

ECB Hikes Rates For First Time Since 2023 (As Expected); Cuts Growth, Hikes Inflation Outlook

As fully expected, The ECB hiked its key rate by 25bps (for the first time since 2023) as the policymakers battle with the dilemma of economic weakness combined with rising inflation.

Obviously, raising rates to dampen inflation could further slow the economy, while easing rates to support growth increases the risk that higher inflation becomes persistent.

Clearly, Lagarde et al went with the former with its well-jawboned baseline having long been a hike in June with risks skewed toward a follow-up move in September (although a move in July can’t be ruled out).

“The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilizes at its 2% target in the medium term.

In line with this commitment, it today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.

The war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area.”

On the ECB's growth/inflation dilemma, they wrote:

“The outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth.

The full implications of the war for medium-term inflation and growth will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the scale of its indirect and second-round effects.”

The ECB’s new economic projections revise inflation upwards for 2026 and 2027 due to “a higher path for energy prices, which, to some extent, is expected to feed into food, goods and services inflation.”

New (higher) inflation forecasts suggest more short-term pain with 2027 and 2028 seeing price pressures ease :

• *ECB SEES 2026 INFLATION AT 3%; PRIOR FORECAST 2.6%
• *ECB SEES 2027 INFLATION AT 2.3%; PRIOR FORECAST 2%
• *ECB SEES 2028 INFLATION AT 2%; PRIOR FORECAST 2.1%

Growth is seen slowing in the same period due to the impact of the war on commodity prices, real incomes and consumer confidence.

New (lower) GDP forecasts follow a similar path with short-term weakness rotating into modest improvement in 2027 and 2028 (but not exactly thrilling growth still):

• *ECB SEES 2026 GDP GROWTH AT 0.8%; PRIOR FORECAST 0.9%
• *ECB SEES 2027 GDP GROWTH AT 1.2%; PRIOR FORECAST 1.3%
• *ECB SEES 2028 GDP GROWTH AT 1.5%; PRIOR FORECAST 1.4%

As Bloomberg's Alessandro Migliaccio notes, the new economic projections paint a grim picture.

The higher inflation will strengthen the ECB’s conviction that a rate increase was needed to keep to its mandate of price stability.

The slower growth however, may see some countries grumbling against too much tightening.

EUR was flat ahead of the ECB decision and the initial market reaction is muted.

The rate hike was fully priced in, and traders had already anticipated upward revisions to inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

As expected, and just like in March, the ECB has also produced new scenarios to account for the uncertainty it continues to face. These will be published together with the new projections after the press conference.

Watch the ECB press conference live here (due to start at 0845ET):

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:25

Futures Rise, Oil Drops As US Ends Iran Strikes

US equity futures are higher led by tech and small caps, with traders buying the dip in stocks as a swift conclusion to the latest round of US strikes against Iran raised expectations that talks over a peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will get back on track. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rise 0.7% to recover from a five-week low after Trump forewarned Iran would be hit “very hard,” followed by swift and superficial strikes; Nasdaq 100 contracts rise 1.1% with all Mag 7 stocks higher led by TSLA (+1.5%) and NVDA (+1.2%); ORCL is down 7% although that’s a better showing than in the postmarket after the company reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates. Bond yields are 1-3bp lower. Overall, we have seen an escalation in the US/Iran since Tuesday but the escalation is relatively limited given that the US Central Command have declared the operation complete. War jitters promptly faded after US Central Command called an end to “additional self-defense” strikes about four hours after launching attacks on multiple targets in Iran, with Brent reversing gains to trade 1% lower below $92 a barrel. Commodities are mixed: WTI crude fell $1.15 to $88.87; base metals are mostly lower, while previous metals are higher.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +1%, Nvidia +0.7%, Amazon +0.5%, Meta +0.2%, Alphabet +0.2%, Apple +0.4%, Microsoft unchanged.)

• Chipmakers and other AI-related firms rise after Oracle reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates, driven by increased data center spending.
• Rocket, satellite and space-linked companies gain, putting the sector on track to rebound after the recent slump.
• Eaton (ETN) gains 2% after agreeing to merge its mobility business with Dana Inc. in a deal valuing the combined company at roughly $10 billion including debt. Shares of Dana (DAN) are down 2%.
• Intel (INTC) rises 4% after BofA Global Research raised its recommendation to buy from underperform on expected growth from central processing unit sales.
• Navan (NAVN) gains 19% after the AI-powered travel and expenses platform boosted its total revenue outlook for the full year.
• Oracle (ORCL) falls 8% after the company reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates, raising investor concerns about the profitability of the AI infrastructure business.
• Stitch Fix (SFIX) rises 3% after the online personal styling platform raised its full-year forecast for net revenue from continuing operations.
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG) climbs 6% after BTIG started coverage on the space and defense company with a buy rating, citing growth potential.

In other corporate news, activist investor Elliott hit back at Australia’s biggest gold stock Northern Star Resources by urging the beleaguered miner’s board to take urgent action and reconsider a sale as its valuation flounders. Co-founder of Ben & Jerry’s said the ice cream brand’s new owner Magnum is in the “process of destroying” the Cherry Garcia maker’s future.  Meta has completed an operational split from Manus and halted data sharing between the two companies, taking a pivotal step toward unwinding a $2 billion acquisition opposed by Beijing. Shares of Alibaba and JD.com fell after Chinese regulators scolded leading e-commerce players for what it called misleading promotions. 

AI takes center stage again, with OpenAI considering drastic token price cuts, Goldman’s renewed estimate of explosive Hyperscaler capex growth, Oracle’s eye-watering spending forecasts and Citadel Securities’ “Tokenomics” report outlining how AI hype has been built on capabilities. The reckoning will focus on costs. 

Citadel Securities strategist Frank Flight notes the recent decline in token prices may reflect a shift toward cheaper AI models, as even the most powerful technologies must pass through “the prosaic discipline” of cost curves, capacity constraints and marginal returns. OpenAI is said to be considering drastically lowering the prices it charges users for its tokens as it seeks to win customers from its arch-rival Anthropic, according to the WSJ. 

Coming into Oracle’s results — the first for the new CFO, and with the stock up roughly 50% since April lows — the key question for investors was whether the company could balance growth and demand with capex and financing needs. In a microcosm of the AI bull and bear debate, Oracle delivered solid revenue growth of 20%, but forecast that its capex-to-sales ratio will accelerate to an eye-watering 100% next fiscal year.

Equities linked to the artificial-intelligence trade have turned volatile in recent days after powering global stocks to all-time highs on the back of strong earnings, with traders questioning whether the rally has run too far.

“Sentiment trends are shifting very quickly since Friday’s selloff and the market has become much more volatile and much more selective,” said Andrea Tueni, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque France. “Even if the trend remains upward, brace for some more erratic moves ahead.”

Meanwhile, anticipation is building for the market debut of SpaceX, whose $75 billion first-time share sale is due to price later on Thursday. The offering has attracted demand for more than four times the available shares. The offerings from SpaceX, and potentially others such as OpenAI, are raising questions about whether investors will pull money from existing stocks to fund the deals, or whether they will fuel further enthusiasm for AI shares.

“There’s nervousness about how markets will react,” said Josh Gilbert, lead analyst for Asia Pacific and the Middle East at Etoro Ltd. “How markets absorb the biggest listing in history at a rich valuation will tell us a lot about whether the appetite for the AI trade is still sky high.”

Veteran short seller Jim Chanos said SpaceX was a “hopes and dreams IPO,” driven more by investor enthusiasm for Elon Musk and AI than financial fundamentals, arguing its valuation is difficult to justify on any reasonable assumptions. The retail investment excitement is near fever pitch and showing up in pre-IPO trading and a 3x levered SpaceX product is planned.  

Worries about further Iran war escalation lingered as President Donald Trump told Fox News the US would hit Iran again if its leaders didn’t sign an interim peace deal. Iran’s foreign ministry said the latest attacks rendered the existing ceasefire deal “meaningless.” Traders, however, drew reassurance from the belief that further escalation was to neither side’s advantage. 

“We’re keeping our overweight equity exposure,” said Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions. “The market has taken the view that Trump doesn’t want to escalate further and has no interest in seeing oil prices surge again.”

The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates later on Thursday for the first time since 2023, concluding it can no longer ignore inflationary pressures stemming from the war in Iran. Traders will also follow comments by ECB President Christine Lagarde on policymakers’ outlook for the months ahead. President Christine Lagarde plans a news conference at 8:45am

European stocks also advance with a pullback in oil prices providing an additional tailwind. Treasuries advance, pushing US 10-year yields down 2bps to 4.53%. The oil price rose, lifting energy shares, after the US military launched strikes against “multiple” targets in Iran. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Beijer Ref gains as much as 10% after EQT’s Breeze TopCo agreed to sell its entire holding of non-listed A-shares in the Swedish industrial heating and cooling firm to Melker Schorling AB (MSAB) at an undisclosed premium
• BASF gains as much as 2.1%, rebounding from its lowest level in over two months, after being upgraded at Kepler Cheuvreux, whose analysts raised their earnings expectations for the German chemicals firm
• Wizz Air rises as much as 6.7% after the airline eked out FY net profit, beating expectations of a €35 million loss. Analysts at Morgan Stanley pointed to signs of normalization in consumer confidence and solid revenue guidance for 1Q 2027
• Grafton Group rises as much as 3.5%, hitting a one-month high, after the building supplies company outlined medium-term targets ahead of its capital markets day. Analysts said the goals are ambitious but can be delivered
• Puuilo gains as much as 12% to a record high after the Finnish home goods retailer reported stronger sales. DNB Carnegie says the print shows excellent delivery in the quarter, primarily driven by strong customer traffic
• Halma falls as much as 15%, the most since 1993, after the UK industrial group’s guidance for its Photonics business fell short of expectations, the key disappointment in an otherwise solid earnings report
• European software stocks drop after Oracle reported weak sales from its traditional software business; Oracle reported 4Q cloud applications sales that missed consensus estimate
• Camurus drops as much as 9.6% after the biopharmaceutical firm said it received a complete response letter from the US FDA in relation to its new drug application for Oclaiz, a treatment for patients with a rare hormonal condition
• Sligro Food Group plunges as much as 13%, marking the sharpest drop in 11 months after being downgraded at Oddo BHF, whose analysts said there are “no mid-term supportive arguments for a bullish investment case”
• RWS Holdings shares fall as much as 19% to their lowest since April after the British AI company’s earnings noted a £2 million hit from FX swings
• Voltalia drops as much as 9.7%, the most in five months, as Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from equal-weight due to the French renewable-energy producer’s high financial leverage and its impact on growth

Asian stocks fell as rising oil prices and persistent tensions in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.7% to its lowest level in three weeks before paring the decline. Alibaba Group and Samsung Electronics were among the biggest drags on the index, following concerns over pricing pressures.  South Korea’s Kospi rebounded and gained by 0.4%, while Indonesia’s benchmark dropped by 0.3%. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and China lead declines in the region. Momentum in regional stocks has weakened, with the Asian benchmark nearing its 50-day moving average. Investors remain jittery as US military launched strikes against multiple targets in Iran for the second straight day, triggering gains in oil prices. 

Jun Bei Liu, co-founder and lead portfolio manager at hedge fund Ten Cap Investment, said investors were taking profit in tech stocks. “I think this dip will be bought,” she said, adding the market might be getting hopeful that the situation in the Middle East would deescalate after the US military said it had completed its latest strikes in Iran.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edges higher while the euro is little changed ahead of the ECB decision later on Thursday.

In rates, treasuries are richer across the curve, slightly outperforming European bonds ahead of the ECB rate announcement at 8:15am New York time, with a decision to raise rates for first time since 2023 expected. US yields are 2bp-3bp richer on the day, keeping most curve spreads within 1bp of Wednesday’s close. 10-year, near session low 4.53%, outperforms German and UK counterparts by 0.5bp and 1.5bp. Treasuries have support from lower oil prices as signs of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz offset concern about fresh US attacks on Iran. Focal points of US session include May PPI data and 30-year bond reopening. The Treasury auction cycle concludes with $22 billion 30-year reopening at 1pm, following solid demand for 3- and 10-year note sales over past two days. 30-year WI yield near 5.01% is ~3.6bp richer than the May new-issue result

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down around 1.2% near session low. Brent crude futures fall more than 1% to below 92 with traders seemingly looking past fresh attacks between the US and Iran. Precious metals and Bitcoin also climb

US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims and May PPI (8:30am) and 1Q household change in net worth (12pm)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• OpenAI is considering drastically lowering the prices it charges users as it seeks to win customers from its rival Anthropic. The company is weighing significant cuts to what it charges for tokens, the unit of measurement artificial-intelligence firms use to bill for their products, according to people familiar with the matter. WSJ
• Donald Trump told Fox News that the US will launch more attacks on Iran unless it accepts an interim peace deal. His remarks followed another night of clashes between the two countries. Iran told ships with permits to cross the Strait of Hormuz to await guidance, saying it’s closed until further notice. BBG
• Efforts to reach an interim deal to end hostilities between Iran and the U.S. have intensified, three Iranian sources and a European official told Reuters on Thursday, despite strikes launched by both sides, as the warring parties discuss how to release frozen Iranian funds. RTRS
• A sharp fall in China’s crude oil imports during the Iran war has been instrumental in holding down oil prices and keeping the global economy humming. Clues are emerging in the mystery of the missing three million barrels—the oil that China would normally be importing but isn’t now. Chinese people are driving fewer gasoline-powered cars and taking trains instead of planes. WSJ
• SK Hynix plans to double its capacity within 5 years and triple it by 2034. Nikkei
• Shares of Alibaba and JD.com slid after Chinese regulators scolded leading e-commerce players for what it called misleading promotions. BBG
• The European Central Bank is all but certain to raise interest rates on Thursday in the hope of nipping higher inflation in the bud before a surge in energy costs triggered by the Iran war spreads ‌more broadly across the euro zone economy. RTRS
• S&P upgraded Argentina’s credit rating to B-, citing President Javier Milei’s fiscal austerity and improved liquidity access. BBG
• The Knicks staged the biggest comeback in NBA Finals history, rallying from a 29-point deficit to defeat the San Antonio Spurs 107-106 in Game 4. The win gave New York a 3-1 series lead, one victory away from its first NBA championship since 1973. BBG
• BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 6th Jun) +6.1% (prev. +5.2% W/W, +4.8% in Apr); entertainment, clothing, HI, furniture and transit saw the biggest acceleration.

Top Iran News

• The US carried out fresh strikes against Iran, with US CENTCOM saying that American forces began launching additional self-defence strikes, and then later announcing that it completed the strikes, targeting Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems and air defence sites across Iran. In response, Iran's military command centre announced the Strait of Hormuz would be closed to all vessels, effective immediately, and threatened to hit any vessels crossing the strait. Iran's IRGC also said it launched two waves of retaliatory strikes, hitting and destroying 18 key military targets in US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
• Following the overnight strikes, an Iranian source told Reuters that Iran and the US are still in negotiations over a preliminary deal, which includes a mechanism for unfreezing funds. This followed commentary by the Pakistani Foreign Minister stating that we remain engaged with a degree of optimism. The minister added that channels of communication remain open and Pakistan and Qatar remain engaged in mediation efforts. To add, CNN reported first, citing a source, stating that US-Iran talks still continue despite US-Iran military exchange.
• US President Trump said on Wednesday evening that fighter jets were operating over the skies of Iran, and he spoke directly with Iranian officials. Trump added that Iranians asked him to stop bombing, while he said the bombing will stop shortly, but left the option open for more strikes. Trump also stated that Israelis were not involved in Iran strikes and that the US fired 49 Tomahawk missiles, as well as noting that Iran must choose between war or a new deal and warned 'we'll bomb them to rubble tomorrow night' if there is no deal.
• Tasnim cited a reliable source stating that Trump's claim that Iranian officials spoke with him directly and wanted the bombing to stop is completely false, while the source added that no contact has been established with Trump and that Iran responds to aggression with military action.
• US President Trump held a Situation Room meeting on Iran strike options, while sources said one option Trump was considering was launching an operation that is big in scale but short in duration, according to Axios. However, NYT later reported that officials held a Situation Room meeting regarding the Epstein files and that the meeting was held without Trump.
• US Secretary of War Hegseth said Central Command would be busy overnight and that the US would hit Iran hard, with the US to bomb key facilities in Iran, and strikes would be strong and clear.
• IRGC Navy said vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz is considered cooperation with the enemy and "We warn that no vessel should leave its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman", ISNA reported.
• Iran said applicants who have received a transit permit are asked to be patient and await further guidance from the PGSA, IRIB reported and repeated that the Strait remains closed until further notice.
• UKMTO received a report of an incident 21NM Northeast of Sohar, Oman. Iran's Sirik Governor later said the US projectile hit a cargo boat in the Gulf of Oman.
• A 7th vessel carrying Qatari LNG is understood to have transited the Strait of Hormuz, Kpler's Bakr reported.
• India's embassy within Oman said they were informed on Thursday of an incident that involved a vessel in proximity to the Shinas port.
• Israeli airstrike targets a facility in Western Bekaa, central Lebanon, Al Hadath reported.
• Israeli airstrikes reported on towns in southern Lebanon, Al Mayadeen reported.**

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined in a continuation of the recent tech reversal, and as the US conducted strikes on Iran for a second consecutive day, which prompted Iran to retaliate by targeting US bases in the region and ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also declared the waterway closed to all vessels. However, stocks then gradually pared losses given that the fresh strikes were widely telegraphed beforehand and with relief also seen after CENTCOM announced that US forces completed the strikes. ASX 200 was pressured with the downside led by underperformance in tech and the top-weighted financials sector, although losses were stemmed by resilience in energy and defensives. Nikkei 225 slumped at the open owing to the fresh hostilities in the Middle East, with headwinds seen amid higher oil prices and upside in yields, although the index then staged a recovery and returned to flat territory before a renewed bout of selling persisted. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp followed suit to the weakness across global markets, with several tech stocks clustered among the list of worst performers.

Top Asian News

• Japan PM Takaichi and US President Trump are arranging a meeting during the G7, Nikkei reported.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said he doesn't think BoJ Governor Ueda's temporary hospitalisation will affect the BoJ's policy conduct and cooperation with the government.
• PBoC Governor Pan reiterated the depth and breadth of China's financial market, provide key allocation opportunities for overseas institutional investors.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) trade with broad gains despite another round of US-Iran strikes. The US targeted Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems and air defence sites across Iran, while Iran's IRGC said it launched two waves of retaliatory strikes, hitting and destroying 18 key military targets in US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Germany's DAX 40 (U/C) underperforms, weighed on by losses in SAP (-4.4%) following Oracle's earnings. European sectors trade mixed. Utilities (+1.3%) tops the list, with Energy (+1.2%) and Banks (+1.2%) round out the top 3. Autos (-0.4%), Real Estate (-0.4%) and Telecoms (-1.0%) are the underperformers.

Top European News

• France and Germany are discussing proposals for a radical overhaul of the EU’s diplomatic service in an attempt to improve the response to geopolitical crises, according to FT.

FX

• G10s are mixed against the Buck in relatively thin trade into the ECB meeting and US PPI.
• A busy morning in terms of newsflow, has not translated into price action/vol for G10s which are mixed against the flat Buck. Gradual weakness in Crude benchmarks seen among slew of optimistic US-Iran updates (see feed from 08:21-38 BST), did little to move DXY from its 100.00 handle despite Brent edging to session lows under USD 92/bbl. In short, it appears negotiations continue despite the recent exchange of fire. The Greenback seems less sensitive to geopolitical headlines as markets interpret recent US data with PPI ahead.
• CAD is the worst G10 performers as energy weakness pressures the Loonie. On Wednesday, the BoC held rates at 2.25% with some dovish undertones. Although release and accompanying remarks from Macklem/Rogers were a repeat from April, ING notes its use of language such as “excess supply” and “looking through” inflation may have offered the Loonie. Amid the recent weakness in energy benchmarks, USD/CAD could approach the 1.40 level should US PPI print hot.
• The main EUR event today will be the ECB meeting, where the Governing Council is expected to hike by 25bps, taking the Deposit Rate to 2.25%. This is justified by the assessment that the ECB is past the March baseline and is closer to the adverse scenario. Attention will be on language regarding a July move, where interest rate futures currently assign a 30% probability of tightening. EUR has been moving lower on account for recent USD upside as mentioned above. EUR/USD trades within recent parameters in the middle of a 1.15-16 band. If the ECB indicates further tightening, that could see the pair test resistance at 1.1570/80, whereas a dovish council may see recent lows of 1.15 tested, in conjunction with hot US PPI.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are trading tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark. This comes amidst another US strike on Iranian military targets, which led to retaliation from the Iranians. This led energy higher overnight, but then came off best levels as CENTCOM announced the latest bout of attacks are completed. Thereafter, energy benchmarks turned negative after CNN reported that US-Iran talks are continuing. This helped global fixed paper to clamber off worst levels, with the complex generally sitting towards highs.
• USTs (+2 ticks) trade towards the upper end of a 108-27 to 109-06+ range. The trough of the day was formed overnight, which coincided with the peaks in the energy complex. Thereafter, US paper clambered off worst levels, as the geopolitical environment eased. Domestically, focus will be on the US PPI report, which, together with Wednesday's broadly in-line CPI report, will be used as a key determinant for next week’s Fed policy announcement. The policy rate is unlikely to be adjusted, but focus will be on comments pertaining to the easing bias removal. Also on the docket today is a 30yr auction, which follows on from a decent 3yr outing and a strong 10yr auction. This notably comes despite the ongoing volatility and hawkish Fed repricing.
• Bunds (+9 ticks) are trading towards the upper end of a 124.88 to 125.29 range, currently driven by events in the Middle East, though focus will come back to Europe where the ECB is set to deliver a 25bps hike this afternoon. Given markets widely expect a hike, focus will be on the accompanying statement and President Lagarde to see if/how hawkish the Bank shifts. The likelihood is that Lagarde will keep optionality; ING opines that she will want to avoid “sounding too dovish”.
• Gilts (-3 ticks) are essentially flat and trade within a 87.39 to 87.60 range. Ultimately, moving at the whim of geopolitical developments. Domestic newsflow has been light, with some focus on Burnham comments where he suggested he would support Waspi Women, a compensation scheme believed to cost upwards of GBP 10bln. With the UK newsflow light, Gilts will likely take leads from this afternoon’s US PPI and ECB announcement.
• UK sells GBP 5.0bln 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.60x (prev. 3.35x), average yield 4.419% (prev. 4.238%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• Italy sells EUR 4.0bln vs exp. EUR 3.5-4.0bln 3.00% 2029 BTP: b/c 1.62x, average yield 3.03%.

Commodities

• The US carried out fresh strikes against Iran, with US CENTCOM saying that American forces began launching additional self-defence strikes, and then later announcing that it completed the strikes, targeting Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems and air defence sites across Iran. In response, Iran's shut the Strait of Hormuz and launched its own attack on some Gulf nations.
• Despite these strikes, an Iranian source tells Reuters that Iran and the US are still in negotiations over a preliminary deal, including a mechanism over unfreezing funds, while the Pakistan Foreign Minister said they remain engaged with a degree of optimism. Prior to that, CNN sources outlined that US-Iran talks continue, despite the US-Iran military exchange.
• Crude futures have completely pared the earlier gains. WTI Jul'26 reversed at the 50-SMA (USD 93.48/bbl) and currently trades at the lower end of its USD 88.77-93.64/bbl range. For Brent Aug'26, the benchmark has slipped below USD 92/bbl (USD 91.72-95.50/bbl range).
• Precious metals rebound following the drop in the last few days, action driven by several previously discussed factors. Spot gold dipped below the March 26th low of USD 4099/oz in Wednesday's session and extended to a trough of USD 4024/oz early in the Asia-Pac day. Since then, the yellow metal has bid higher and now trades at the upper end of its USD 4024-4118/oz range.
• 3M LME Copper gapped lower at the start of trade, following the selloff in APAC equities, but has since oscillated in a USD 13.39k-13.52k/t range.
• Japan's PM Takaichi said that she expects to secure 100% of crude in July, without passing the Strait of Hormuz.
• Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted daily price-limit bands and trading margin ratios for gold and silver futures contracts

US Eco Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun 6 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220k, prior 225k
• 8:30 am: May 30 Continuing Claims, est. 1785k, prior 1777k
• 8:30 am: May PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 1.4%
• 8:30 am: May PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1%
• 8:30 am: May PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 6.4%, prior 6%
• 8:30 am: May PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.4%, prior 5.2%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The rise in oil prices has continued this morning after the US launched fresh strikes against Iran for a second day running. So investors are increasingly pessimistic that a deal will be reached anytime soon, or that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. That’s meant Brent crude is up another +1.70% overnight to $94.68/bbl, building on yesterday’s gains. And as a result, global equities are at a one-month low, with the S&P 500 (-1.62%) posting a fresh slump yesterday. Moreover, those losses have shown no sign of easing in Asia, with the Hang Seng (-1.05%), the CSI 300 (-1.07%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.73%) and the Nikkei (-0.19%) all losing ground this morning. The one bright spot is that futures on the S&P 500 (+0.33%) have stabilised overnight, but the overall backdrop is one of mounting volatility as investors have priced a growing chance of further escalation.

All that follows a day of mounting threats, which culminated in several US strikes overnight. US Central Command framed them as “additional self-defense strikes” on “multiple targets”. Meanwhile, Fox News reported that President Trump had told them he would bomb Iran again today if they didn’t sign an agreement. So fears of a further escalation were very much in focus, and Iran’s Press TV said they’d targeted the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain using various attack drones.  

Even before those latest US strikes overnight, markets had already posted fresh declines yesterday as US-Iran tensions continued to mount. The first uptick in oil prices followed a post from President Trump, who said that Iran have “taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!” So that raised fears about an escalation, and a few hours later, Trump then said the US would “hit Iran hard again today”, suggesting that further action was on the table.

Those initial headlines led to a clear jump for oil, with Brent crude (+1.80%) ending the day at $93.10/bbl. Moreover, as investors dialled back the chance of a near-term resolution, longer-dated oil futures also moved higher, with the 6-month Brent future up +1.55% on the day to $85.89/bbl. And on Polymarket, there was increasing doubt that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen anytime soon, with the probability of normal traffic by end-July down to 26% by the close. Admittedly, there were a couple of headlines that were more positive. For instance, Fox News reported a senior White House official on background, who said “the talks still continue”. Meanwhile, Iran’s ISNA reported that a Qatari delegation had arrived in Tehran yesterday, for talks on diplomacy with the US. But for markets, investors have priced out the likelihood of a near-term deal, particularly with the latest strikes overnight.

With signs of a near-term resolution fading, investors grew more concerned about the stagflationary scenarios again, with bonds and equities selling off on both sides of the Atlantic. Indeed, the S&P 500 (-1.62%) fell to a one-month low, with tech stocks including the NASDAQ (-1.98%) and the Magnificent 7 (-2.23%) leading the way. The selloff was a classic rotation out of growth and cyclicals into defensives as Telecoms (+2.25%), Food & Bev (+1.98%) and Consumer Staple Retail (+1.86%) were the best performing S&P 500 industry groups, while Autos (-3.92%), Capital Goods (-3.88%), and Semiconductors (-3.76%) were the biggest laggards. And over in Europe, it was much the same story, with the STOXX 600 (-0.08%) down for a 4th consecutive session to a three-week low.

While geopolitics provided the main headlines, there were also developments on the AI-capex front as well. Most notably, Oracle shares fell -10.25% in after-hours trading after they reported higher capex spending than estimated, adding to doubts about the profitability of AI infrastructure like data centres. Otherwise, the company also announced plans to raise another $40bn in equity and debt, including a previously disclosed plan to issue $20bn in shares.   

For sovereign bonds it was much the same story of losses, with the 10yr Treasury yield up +3.6bps to 4.55% by the close. And that increase came despite the more positive impact from the US CPI print, where monthly core CPI was softer than expected, which helped to dial back some of the speculation about a Fed rate hike this year. So the release showed headline CPI up as expected in May, with a +0.5% monthly print that took the year-on-year reading to +4.2%. But core CPI was softer at +0.2% on the month (vs. +0.3% expected), with the year-on-year measure at +2.9%. But for sovereign bonds, the temporary relief from the CPI print was outweighed by the more negative geopolitical headlines and higher oil prices, so they still lost ground on the day.

Over in Europe, sovereign bonds also struggled ahead of today’s ECB decision. Once again, that was driven by the geopolitical headlines, with inflation fears ramping up. For instance, the 1yr Euro inflation swap was back up +4.85bps yesterday to 2.98%. And in turn, yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+4.1bps) and BTPs (+4.9bps) all moved higher again. That included a few records as well, with the 10yr OAT yield up to a post-2008 high of 3.85%, whilst Germany’s 10yr real yield (+2.7bps) hit a 5-month high of 0.83%.

Speaking of the ECB, they’ll be announcing their decision at 13:15 London time, where they’re widely expected to deliver a 25bp hike that lifts their deposit rate to 2.25%. That comes as inflation has clearly risen above target, and our European economists think the energy shock has now been large enough for the ECB to act. Indeed, the Euro Area flash CPI print for May was at 3.2%, whilst core CPI was also at a one-year high of 2.5%. In terms of what to look out for, given a hike is widely expected, a big question will be what they signal beyond this meeting about future hikes. Our economists think they’ll want to maintain optionality, and will keep further hikes on the table so markets don’t interpret today as a one-off move. 

Ahead of that, we also had the Bank of Canada’s latest decision yesterday. They left their policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, as was widely expected, and they kept their options open given the current uncertainty. For instance, Governor Macklem suggested that if higher energy prices led to higher inflation, then “there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate”. But he also suggested that additional US trade restrictions could mean they “may need to cut the policy rate further to support economic growth.” Against that backdrop, Canadian bonds saw a relative outperformance yesterday, with the country’s 10yr yield (+0.9bps) seeing a modest increase to 3.49%.

Finally, there were fresh tariff headlines as President Trump announced that he would not be reauthorising the country’s USMCA trade pact with Mexico and Canada agreed in his first term. He said “I’m not looking to renew it”, and without an extension, the deal would see rolling annual reviews while remaining in force for the next decade. It’s possible for a country to exit the deal with 6 months’ notice, but Trump did not say if he was considering this.

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, US data releases include the PPI reading for May, and the weekly initial jobless claims.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:19

A Small Win For Free Speech In UK

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

South Wales Police has shelved plans to record instances of "anti-Muslim hostility" that strayed beyond what officers considered "legitimate" discussion of Islam.

The force paused the policy after the Free Speech Union threatened judicial review and Shadow Equalities Minister Claire Coutinho referred it to the Equality and Human Rights Commission. Critics had warned the guidance functioned as a de facto blasphemy law in a country that scrapped such statutes 18 years ago.

The climbdown represents a tangible check on efforts to police speech through vague, subjective rules that empower authorities to decide what counts as acceptable criticism of one religion.

?? FSU Victory!!

The Free Speech Union has just heard from South Wales Police that it has withdrawn its guidance on "anti-Muslim hostility".

The force had effectively adopted its own Islamic blasphemy law, instructing officers to record any conversation that went beyond... pic.twitter.com/aEHeGGuxr5

- The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) June 9, 2026

Earlier this month, South Wales Police directed staff to log comments about Islam that exceeded the force's view of legitimate discourse. Anything beyond that line risked classification as an anti-social behaviour incident - the rebranded term for non-crime hate incidents. Those records could then appear in enhanced DBS checks, affecting employment prospects for teachers, carers and others in regulated roles.

The approach effectively "gold-plated" the UK government's March definition of anti-Muslim hostility. While ministers included explicit free speech safeguards stating the definition was not meant to inhibit criticism of Islam or Islamic practices, South Wales Police added its own subjective layer. Officers gained discretion to judge speech on the spot.

Free Speech Union General Secretary Lord Young highlighted the danger at the time:

"Our concern is that police forces and other public bodies adopting the definition will gold-plate it, ignoring those safeguards and penalising people for expressing misgivings about Islam, even when those views are rooted in evidence rather than prejudice. In particular, we are concerned that the default police response to reports of anti-Muslim hostility - even where they clearly fall outside the definition - will be to record them as 'anti-social behaviour incidents'... Those records may then be disclosed in enhanced DBS checks."

Conservative MP Katie Lam warned the framework would "make it harder to talk about Islamist extremism, FGM, and the grooming gangs. They'd rather restrict our right to criticise than deal with these problems head-on. It's putting us all in danger."

The definition itself emerged from a working group whose members had documented links to Islamist organisations previously avoided by governments. Concerns mounted that public bodies were creating special protections for one faith while documented issues with parallel societies, religious exclusion in housing, and extremism received softer treatment.

The Free Speech Union wrote directly to South Wales Police demanding withdrawal of the guidance. It argued the policy clashed with data protection rules and free speech protections. The group explicitly threatened judicial review if the force pressed ahead.

South Wales Police appear to be zealously enforcing their own version of an Islamic blasphemy law.

Officers have been instructed to record speech that goes beyond what they deem to be "legitimate" discussion of Islam.

This creates an extraordinarily restrictive category of... https://t.co/aW7PMkVM5c

- The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) June 8, 2026

Public exposure of the internal directive triggered swift backlash. Within days the force faced mounting pressure from multiple directions.

Then the force confirmed Tuesday it was pausing adoption of the bespoke anti-Muslim hostility definition.

The Free Speech Union noted the guidance would have threatened careers by creating disclosable records for speech that crossed an officer's personal line on Islam discussions. South Wales Police stated it would now seek guidance from the National Police Chiefs' Council before any further decision.

The Free Speech Union quickly declared victory and warned other forces against similar experiments.

This episode exposes how easily vague "hostility" frameworks can slide into selective speech monitoring. Officers were positioned as arbiters of acceptable thought on a single religion, with records that follow citizens into job applications.

Small victories matter. They prove that when civil society groups document the overreach, threaten credible legal action, and coordinate with opposition figures, even police forces reconsider. Other forces reportedly eyeing similar interpretations now have a clear signal: these policies carry real political and legal costs.

Britain scrapped blasphemy laws because no religion deserves a state-backed shield from criticism. Attempts to recreate that shield through the back door - whether dressed as community cohesion or hostility monitoring - deserve the same resistance. This pause shows such resistance can succeed when applied with precision and persistence.

Free speech protections exist to cover the difficult, the offensive and the evidence-based alike. When institutions try to carve out exceptions for one ideology, they erode the principle for everyone. The South Wales Police retreat is a reminder that those exceptions remain contestable.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:05