Zero Rss

India Accuses West Of Double Standards Over US Russia Oil Sanctions

Submitted By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

The on-and-off U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and the flipping U.S. position regarding India’s oil purchases from Russia highlight the double standards of the Western nations, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said on Friday.

India turned en masse to Russian oil in 2022, when the U.S. and the EU imposed sanctions on Moscow due to the invasion of Ukraine. Four years later, India is a major buyer of Russia’s crude and Russia is India’s single-largest oil supplier.

“At that time, the US specifically asked India to buy Russian oil to stabilize the oil market,” Jaishankar was quoted as saying at an event in Finland, referring to the situation on the market in 2022.

India buys oil based on price and availability, the foreign minister said in response to reporters’ remarks that India is “too sympathetic to Russia” and “too willing to buy oil from Russia”.

“Circumstances pushed us in a certain direction,” NDTV World quoted Jaishankar as saying.

The U.S. lifted sanctions on Russian oil this year after the Iran war pushed oil prices well above $100 per barrel in April, after having slapped tariffs on India for buying Russian crude.

“Let’s not pretend there’s some great principle involved here. I don’t think making this about sanctimony is really warranted,” the Indian minister said.

In the current supply crisis, Indian refiners have secured crude supply at least through August as they boost purchases from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Africa, and Brazil.

As supply from the Middle East crashes, India is buying growing volumes of crude from West African producers Nigeria and Angola, as well as from South American producers Brazil and Venezuela.

India is now also the key importer of currently de-sanctioned Russian crude on water. Russia has remained India’s top crude supplier in the past two months, thanks to the waivers from the U.S., the same country that was insisting early this year that India slash purchases of Russian oil.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 15:00

DOE Declares Southeast Grid Emergency As Sweltering Heat Boosts AC Demand

As the U.S. men's national soccer team kicks off its first match against Paraguay in Southern California on Friday night, large swaths of the country are trapped in what feels like a wet sauna, with dangerous heat and humidity forcing households to crank up their air conditioning and straining power grids from the Southeast to the Northeast.

On Thursday, the Department of Energy issued an emergency order to mitigate blackout risks across the Carolinas amid extreme heat that threatens to sharply increase power demand.

The order, issued under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, allows Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress to run certain generating units at maximum output.

Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stated, "Maintaining affordable, reliable, and secure power in the Duke Energy service territory is non-negotiable."

"The previous administration's energy subtraction policies weakened the grid, leaving Americans more vulnerable during events like this. Thanks to President Trump's leadership, we are reversing those failures and using every available tool ensuring Americans in the Carolinas' have continued access to affordable, reliable, and secure energy to power and cool their homes," Wright said.

⚠️🔥 One day left of the oppressively hot and humid conditions. A few severe storms will be possible again this afternoon and evening, but not everyone will get a storm. It will turn much less humid for Saturday, but high temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to near 90°. pic.twitter.com/pi6sJDUwKp

— NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly) June 12, 2026

Maximum temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic, especially around Washington, D.C., have ranged from the 80s to the 90s, reaching as high as 95°F on Thursday. Some relief is expected this weekend, but temperatures are forecast to rebound next week as heat builds back into the region.

"It's super humid in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, but relief is coming by Saturday," Meteorologist Ben Noll wrote on X.

It's super humid in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, but relief is coming by Saturday!

After a brief spike in humidity on Sunday, much more comfortable conditions will arrive early next week. pic.twitter.com/ZN4ilGdMuv

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) June 12, 2026

Bloomberg noted that grid stress materialized late Thursday, with PJM real-time power prices rising above $1,300 per megawatt-hour as sweltering heat lingered across the Mid-Atlantic. New York's grid operator prepared to activate emergency demand response, while New England's grid operator declared abnormal conditions as heat indices approached 100°F.

US SPOT POWER PRICES REACH RECORD HIGH OVER $1,000 PER MWH AT PJM WEST HUB IN PENNSYLVANIA AND MARYLAND

we are about to have a very shrill discussion about data center power use

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 27, 2026

We have seen four-digit territory before. As we covered in April when PJM prices shattered $1,000/MWh after first running during the January freeze to $2,300+, the same structural weakness keeps reappearing. Demand surges, variable resources drop off, and the system leans on whatever thermal capacity can still run.

It is the direct consequence of a generation mix that has shed firm, dispatchable megawatts faster than it has replaced them with anything that actually shows up when the forecast is wrong and the temperature is not. 

The blackout in Spain is a phenomenal example of when this is taken to the extreme. And based on some recent warnings from ERCOT, Texas could be the next example.

When push comes to shove on the electric grid, it's not the renewables that are there to help…

Sleep tight America. We got this. Thousands of coal miners, truck drivers, railroaders, river boat workers and power plant employees will make sure that you stay warm and safe on a cold winter night. Fuel Satisfaction. Affordable Power. Grid Reliability. All from American Coal. pic.twitter.com/io0dzRD6vu

— WV Coal Association (@WV_coal1) January 27, 2026

Renewables and batteries help at the margin on good days. They do not solve the evening ramp or multi-day heat dome when every household and every server farm is pulling maximum power. The emergency waiver for Duke is the quiet admission that the current fleet cannot carry the load without violating the operating permits it was given.

Nuclear is the obvious technology that could have filled this gap with carbon-free, always-available capacity. A fleet of new reactors sited years ago would be delivering gigawatts of firm power right now without anyone needing to waive emissions rules or beg demand response programs to shed load.

Instead, the United States has spent the better part of four decades adding almost no new nuclear capacity at commercial scale. As we have documented repeatedly, including in our coverage of the NRC’s new fast-track permitting framework promising 6–12 month construction permit timelines, the regulatory environment has improved dramatically under the current administration. Yet the shovels in the dirt remain conspicuously absent for most projects.

Meanwhile... 

NHC expanding cone ( though still minor) to the concern I have been showing for a couple of days now pic.twitter.com/rYhTRvtpvI

— The American Storm (@BigJoeBastardi) June 12, 2026

On watch for tropical activity in the Gulf of America.  

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 14:40

Gabbard Rescinds Intelligence Committee Reports On Mysterious Syndrome

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Outgoing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has retracted intelligence community reports on mysterious health problems known as Havana Syndrome, according to a memorandum released on June 11.

Gabbard found that the intelligence community assessments of the anomalous health incidents, released in 2023 and 2025, failed to meet the community’s analytic standards.

That included selectively excluding intelligence and evidence that did not support the conclusions and relying on an “ethically flawed medical study without noting methodological critiques,” Gabbard’s office said in the memo, sent to members of Congress.

The 2023 assessment concluded it was very unlikely that a foreign adversary was behind the incidents, which have impacted staffers in countries such as Cuba and China.

The updated assessment released in 2025 said most intelligence agencies still held it was very unlikely an enemy was responsible for the syndrome, but two components judged there was a “roughly even chance” that a foreign actor had used a novel weapon to target Americans, or had developed such a weapon.

Gabbard’s team said future assessments on the matter would adhere to “rigorous ethical standards incorporating all available intelligence sources and engaging a broad range of experts from agencies including the CIA.”

Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.), the former chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence CIA Subcommittee, who has criticized the government reports, praised the new development.

“The assessment was deliberately manufactured and used to discredit some of our nation’s bravest and impede their access to medical care. As was the case with other high-visibility intelligence assessments, it fell far short of analytic integrity standards,” Crawford wrote in a post on X.

He added that the retractions were “a glimmer of hope for our nation’s intelligence officers, service members, and diplomats stationed around the world who have defended this country in austere locations and subsequently had the nation they served turn its back on them.”

The subcommittee said in a 2024 report that it was increasingly likely that a foreign adversary was behind some number of the reported health problems, and that the 2023 assessment was developed “in a manner inconsistent with analytic integrity and thoroughness.”

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine said in 2020 that the most likely mechanism behind the incidents was directed, pulsed radio-frequency energy, citing symptoms people have described, such as perceptual dizziness.

Government employees reporting the problems have had difficulty obtaining treatment, the U.S. Government Accountability Office said in July 2024, recommending that the military develop written guidance and create a plan to rectify those difficulties.

Gabbard said last month that she is resigning from her position as the director of national security, citing her husband’s recent cancer diagnosis.

President Donald Trump said on June 11 that he is nominating Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York and a former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman, as director of national intelligence.

The job oversees the coordination of 18 intelligence agencies.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 14:20

Democrats Divided On Platner As GOP Reportedly Has Opposition Research That Will Destroy Him

Graham Platner may have easily won Maine's Democratic Senate primary Tuesday, but his own party is already trying to figure out how to get rid of him. Democrats openly admit they cannot afford to lose this race if they want to retake the Senate, and Platner is already complicating their plans. Yet, the chaos involving Platner may have only just begun. Maine's Democratic establishment is clearly uneasy, and national Democrats are not hiding it.

AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty

According to a report from NBC News, behind the scenes, party operatives are reportedly circulating negative polling on Platner, exploring whether funding threats might pressure him to withdraw, and testing public opinion with a text poll sent on primary day that asked voters about the allegations of his abusive and demeaning treatment of women.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is fully in Platner's corner, and he made his reasoning transparent. "There is no great secret that there is a strong division within the Democratic Party," Sanders said, criticizing the party establishment and praising Platner for challenging it. On the abuse allegations specifically, Sanders is choosing to take Platner's denials at face value.

"He denies it, she says something else, but what I do know is that there are people in the United States Senate right now who are not saints." He then pivoted to senators who voted for the Iraq War and tax cuts. Sanders is essentially arguing that Platner's personal failings are less disqualifying than the establishment's policy sins. Even Tina Smith (D-Minn.), who replaced Al Franken after his resignation over groping allegations, endorsed Platner without hesitation.

But the anxiety over Platner with the Democratic Party is very real. Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) outright said she is "not comfortable" with Platner as the nominee. "I will not defend someone with that kind of history." Former Rep. Tom Malinowski argued that the steady stream of revelations says more than any single allegation. "If a man's past keeps surprising us, it's a safe bet that his present and future will continue to surprise us as well," he said, calling Platner a "moral dilemma" and warning Democrats against repeating what he described as the mistake of embracing candidates more defined by their anti-establishment appeal than their fitness for office.

"The easiest, most logical and most likely path to picking up seats is with Maine in our column," a senior Democratic strategist said. "It's a struggle to see how we get the majority without Maine." Platner's internal polling already shows his lead over five-term incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) shrinking to four points - this in a state that went for Kamala Harris by seven in 2024. He is underperforming the baseline in the most favorable environment Democrats have had in years.

But the Platner campaign is showing no signs of leaving voluntarily.

"The Democrats of Maine have made clear who their choice is," Platner adviser Rebecca Katz said. "And the rest of the party should honor that choice." That may be true. It may also be exactly what the Republican Party is counting on.

Under Maine law, Platner would need to voluntarily withdraw by July 13 for Democrats to replace him on the ballot. According to NBC News, a Republican strategist involved in Senate races said the GOP is deliberately withholding additional opposition research until the candidate-replacement deadline passes, so Democrats are unable to replace him the same way Joe Biden was pushed out of the 2024 presidential race after it became politically impossible to keep him on the ticket.

Once that deadline passes and Republicans unleash whatever opposition research they have been sitting on, the Democrats will have no options left, just a nominee they cannot fully defend in a race they cannot afford to lose.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 14:00

Ministry Of Truth: UK Government To Block 'False Information' During 'Crisis Events'

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity,

Vague new rules will allow UK regulators to pressure platforms over "legal but harmful" content whenever government ministers declare a crisis, while the same government ploughs ahead with mandatory phone scanning, digital ID lockdowns, and jail threats for tech bosses who refuse to spy on every device.

The latest move from Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn makes explicit what privacy campaigners have long warned: the Online Safety Act is being weaponised far beyond any child-protection claim.

Benn confirmed that the internet regulator will now wield enhanced powers to tackle "false information" online during "times of crisis," directly tying the recent Belfast unrest to this framework. The regulator has already contacted platforms, with ministers asserting that violence "appears to have been incited online."

'If we are living in a country where you cannot report the truth, we are living under a dictator.'

Adam Brooks warns of government censorship as Labour announces a social media crackdown 'in times of crisis' after the Belfast unrest. pic.twitter.com/6yyNDXqWNh

- GB News (@GBNEWS) June 11, 2026

Benn stated that if people put online 'false information,' "it is not acceptable and it may well be a criminal offence depending on the circumstances as the chief constable made clear yesterday."

When asked how a "time of crisis" would be defined, Benn said it "will be set out in due course."

The unrest followed a serious knife attack on a local man by an asylum seeker and escalated into protests involving vehicle fires, arson attacks on homes, and clashes with police that injured a dozen officers.

In addition, Ofcom, the UK's regulator for communications, responsible for overseeing broadcasting, telecommunications and - since the passage of the Online Safety Act - the major online platforms, is now using its powers to direct platforms toward enhanced, crisis-specific moderation measures whenever it or ministers identify spikes in 'illegal 'harmful' content during whatever it deems a 'crisis' event.

An Ofcom open letter published this week directly addresses the Belfast situation. It states: "Following a serious knife attack that took place in Belfast on Monday night, we have seen civil unrest in the city, some of which appears to have been incited online. This has included racially motivated incidents of violence, arson attacks on homes and vehicles, and attacks against police."

The letter goes on to remind online service providers of their duties under the Online Safety Act 2023 to assess and mitigate risks of 'illegal' content, including material amounting to offences of stirring up hatred or provoking violence.

It emphasises that "previous crises have shown how a sudden increase in the amount of illegal content circulating online can manifest in hate crime and violence in the real world" and that "usual content moderation systems and processes may not be sufficient in such circumstances."

Crucially, Ofcom confirmed new measures added to its online safety codes of practice under which platforms "should have procedures in place to respond to spikes in illegal content during a crisis." These measures, confirmed the day before the letter, are expected to be enacted by platforms immediately, without waiting for parliamentary approval. The letter stresses that services must "act now to address illegal content" and follow existing crisis protocols where they exist.

This directly engages the core claim in widely shared analysis on X that the Online Safety Act - repeatedly sold to the public as a child-protection measure - is now being applied to adult content and civil unrest with no reference to children in the regulator's own crisis guidance.

The government said the Online Safety Act was about protecting children. We were called conspiracy theorists for saying it wasn't!

Well er ... Ofcom is writing to platforms about "crisis situations", civil unrest and enhanced moderation measures. (Blocking posts they don't like)... pic.twitter.com/7oJybQORhQ

- Bernie (@Artemisfornow) June 11, 2026

Given that the government and it's mouthpiece media has spent the entire week claiming Elon Musk and Nigel Farage, along with anyone commenting on the latest savage migrant attack, is inciting violence, you can see exactly where this is going.

The UK politicians will be more upset about this post than the attempted beheading.

It's simple, the violence the politicians import never comes close to touching them or their families. So they simply do not care.

- MAZE (@mazemoore) June 10, 2026

According to the UK government, you're considered a terrorist if you believe that Western culture is under threat from mass migration.

Yes, this is really on their website. pic.twitter.com/XLh2X6Hri3

- iamyesyouareno (@iamyesyouareno) June 9, 2026

It has. Not even kidding. They've called it the National Counter Disinformation Centre.

- Bernie (@Artemisfornow) June 11, 2026

The same analysis highlights how the definition of crisis has been stretched. Cabinet Office guidance in the Amber Book states that the terms "emergency" and "crisis" are used interchangeably under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004.

An emergency covers events or situations which cause or may cause serious damage to human welfare, the environment or UK security - explicitly including situations that "have not yet been harmful but have the potential to be." No fresh parliamentary debate or vote was required for this expansive interpretation to underpin regulatory action during the Belfast unrest.

Statements from Technology Secretary Liz Kendall also indicate that the government intends to amend online safety laws to give the regulator stronger powers to require platforms to take tougher action on material that it says could incite violence or disorder during periods of "heightened social and political tension."

Those who use social media to incite violence and disorder are breaking the law.
Next week we will lay in Parliament an update to the Online Safety Act requiring services to take quicker action to remove illegal content circulating during times of crisis.

- Liz Kendall (@leicesterliz) June 10, 2026

Critics argue this effectively allows the state to restrict access to real-time footage and non-government sources of information during such periods, framing it as a direct threat to freedom of expression and the public's ability to access unfiltered information.

These concerns sit alongside the Ofcom letter's call for platforms to have crisis response plans ready for spikes in 'illegal' content, including content that the government decrees could stir up hatred or provoke violence.

Further reports emerged of the UK government contacting journalists covering the Northern Ireland events to instruct their reporting, attributed to an anonymous government source.

?BREAKING: The UK Government are contacting JOURNALISTS covering the event in Northern Ireland to INSTRUCT their REPORTING

Attributed to an unspecified and anonymous 'GOVERNMENT SOURCE'

We live in dangerous times
Keir Starmer is a tyrant pic.twitter.com/uqDg811iu4

- Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) June 11, 2026

According to the communications shared online, journalists were reportedly directed on the preferred framing of the unrest, including how to characterise the protests and the underlying causes.

This intervention occurred as Ofcom was simultaneously issuing its crisis guidance to platforms, prompting concerns that the government is attempting to align coverage across both traditional media and online spaces to limit unapproved narratives during periods of public disorder.

Alongside the new regulatory powers, the UK government is rolling out something called PoliceAI, a new National Centre for AI in Policing launched with £115 million in funding. This centralised body consolidates AI development and deployment across all 43 forces in England and Wales, focusing on tools such as live facial recognition, predictive analytics, automated data analysis and deepfake detection.

The government states that it is designed to speed up investigations and automate routine policing tasks while creating a single national framework for testing and rolling out the technology.

The UK is so cooked, man... The UK government's policing office has launched PoliceAI, a new centre that will develop and provide AI tools for police forces across the country.

>These tools are designed to help officers deal with changing crime by making their work faster and... pic.twitter.com/7gcAbikslf

- Pirat_Nation ? (@Pirat_Nation) June 11, 2026

In the context of the new crisis powers, PoliceAI provides authorities with automated systems capable of scanning vast amounts of online content and communications in real time. These tools can flag material deemed to spread "false information" or incite disorder during government-designated crisis events, enabling rapid coordination with Ofcom for content removal.

Combined with facial recognition and predictive capabilities, the system allows police to identify and target individuals posting or sharing information the authorities wish to suppress, turning AI into a powerful mechanism for narrative control and the blocking of inconvenient facts.

I bet they plan on evaluating every social media post with this AI.

After all, AI is just a search engine.
A redditified search engine...

Not even Orwell could come up with this. https://t.co/cjOAIIlkRf

- Ironsmit2323 (@YorkSmit2323) June 11, 2026

These developments do not come in isolation. They connect directly to the surveillance architecture we've relentlessly detailed: plans to jail tech CEOs for up to five years if they refuse to build client-side scanning systems capable of reviewing every photo, video and message on user devices before encryption.

The same framework underpins the coming digital ID lockdown on every phone, under which biometric verification and government-issued ID would be required for full smartphone functionality, with non-compliant devices restricted to limited "child mode."

Encrypted messaging service Signal is resisting the wider demands for phone screening and content scanning. President Meredith Whittaker has stated Signal would "absolutely, 100% walk" from the UK rather than weaken its end-to-end encryption.

#UK: The head of Signal has threatened to pull the company out of the UK entirely rather than weaken its encryption protocols to satisfy government regulators. This would be a serious blow to privacy. The government must protect end-to-end encryption: https://t.co/gKww7NcnXS 1/2

- Index on Censorship (@IndexCensorship) June 11, 2026

Signal and Mullvad warn about the UK's plans to scan people's phones #Signal #Mullvad #UK https://t.co/Zhkfg2whIn

- CyberInsider (@CyberInsidercom) June 10, 2026

Big Brother Watch director Silkie Carlo has warned that the plans "will only result in population-wide ID checks for all of us to use our phones, tablets and laptops" and amount to "ID checks for the internet." She described the requirement as invoking "the death of anonymity and internet privacy" and the overall approach as "a crossing of the Rubicon that would make the UK one of the most authoritarian internet regimes in the world."

The UK digital ID scheme is the lynchpin of a dystopian mass surveillance grid to be implemented for all from cradle to grave.

The government is pressing ahead to expanded regulatory powers over online content during vaguely defined "crisis events," with platforms told to implement special moderation protocols immediately. At the same time the government is advancing device-level scanning, embedding digital ID requirements on every phone, and threatening executives with prison for non-compliance. Instructions to journalists and pressure on platforms complete the picture.

This is nothing less than the construction of a complete surveillance control grid that monitors devices, verifies identity for basic access, and suppresses inconvenient information whenever those in power declare an emergency.

Free speech, privacy and access to unfiltered reality are the direct targets. Resistance from platforms willing to exit rather than comply, and from citizens who refuse to accept the pretext, remains the only obstacle to its full dystopian implementation.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 13:40

UBS Finds Global Trade Structure "Surprisingly Stable" As AI Emerges As Growth Engine

Despite ongoing Gulf-related energy shocks, mounting concerns over a potential energy cliff (read here), and UBS last month reactivating its supply chain stress-watch coverage, another UBS analyst noted Wednesday that the overall structure of global trade remains "surprisingly stable."

Analyst Arend Kapteyn pointed out that the structure of global trade remains far more structurally stable than recent growth trends suggest, even as technology and AI-related categories have driven nearly 80% of recent trade growth while accounting for only about 18% of total exports.

The big takeaway is that technology goods are becoming the engine of global trade growth. This means that semiconductor chips, AI hardware, data-center equipment, and electronics now carry outsized importance for global trade volumes, corporate earnings, and freight demand.

"What is perhaps surprising is how little the structure of global trade has changed despite large shifts in annual growth drivers. To show this, we aggregate 97 UN Comtrade product categories into 14 subcategories across three broad buckets—consumer, intermediate, and capital goods," Kapteyn said.

Kapteyn continued:

The left-hand side shows contributions to global export growth. The early-1990s surge largely reflects the dissolution of the USSR and the entry of those economies into global trade data. The post-2000 expansion coincides with the rise of global supply chains, as goods crossed borders multiple times at different stages of production—mechanically inflating gross trade. This dynamic favoured intermediate goods, whose share rose from ~30% to ~40%.

At first glance, consumer goods (green bars) seem to grow more slowly. In fact, their share has increased—from ~23% in the early 1990s to nearly 30% today—because they have proved more resilient in downturns. Consumer trade fell less sharply during the GFC, the 2015 commodity downturn and strong USD episode, and the 2018–19 trade slump (when tariffs, tech, and autos were hit simultaneously). Partly reflecting that resilience, the intermediate share has since fallen back to ~30%. Tech trade spans multiple categories and is currently growing rapidly, but it's share is little changed from what it was in the late 1990s (i.e. 18%) and still a bit lower than its pandemic peak (20%).

Global Macro Chart of the Day

In the US, Goldman recently calculated that AI data center buildouts by hyperscalers will reach a staggering $800 billion by year-end.

Certainly, in the US, AI-related spending is boosting the economy, while China is preparing to spend upwards of $300 billion on data center buildouts over the next five years.

To sum up, global trade is being driven by technology spending, which has become a global growth engine. That makes AI and chips extraordinarily important.

If technology supply chains are the next beating heart for the global economy, then disruptions in chips, AI hardware, rare earths, Taiwan, China, or export controls can quickly ripple through supply chains, production, pricing, and capex much faster than traditional goods shocks.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 13:20

The K-Shaped Economy: Why The Middle Class Moved Up

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The K-shaped economy has become shorthand for a tidy story. The rich pull away while everyone else falls behind. It fits the mood, and it makes for a sharp headline. The problem is that it’s mostly wrong. When you pull the actual Census data, the dominant move of the last half-century isn’t down. It’s up. Yes, the middle class is shrinking. But it’s shrinking because millions of households climbed into higher brackets, not because they slid into poverty. The real divide lies elsewhere, and most of the coverage walks right past it.

Let’s start with what the term “K-shaped” means, because the label gets stretched to cover almost everything. A K-shaped economy is one where different parts move in opposite directions at the same time. One arm rises with high incomes, corporate profits, and asset values. The other arm stalls with low-wage work, thin savings, and shuttered small businesses. The phrase caught fire after the 2020 shutdown, when high-skill workers shifted to remote work while service jobs vanished overnight.

As a description of that moment, it was accurate. The shutdown hit restaurants, travel, and personal services hardest, and those jobs are inherently lower-wage. Meanwhile, technology, finance, and professional services barely missed a beat. So far, so good. The trouble starts when the K gets applied to the entire arc of American incomes over the last five decades. That’s where the story breaks down.

The Middle Class Didn’t Collapse. It Climbed.

Notice the chart above. In 1967, about 54.6% of U.S. households sat in the middle-income band, earning between $35,000 and $100,000 in 2022 dollars. By 2022, that share had fallen to 39.1%. On its face, that looks exactly like the disappearing middle class everyone talks about. But follow where they went. Over the same stretch, the share of households earning $100,000 or more nearly tripled, climbing from 13.1% to 37.5%.

Here’s the part the headlines skip. The low-income share fell too, from 32.3% to 23.3%. Both the middle and the bottom shrank, while the top exploded. That’s not a population sliding into hardship. That’s a population moving up the ladder. The American Enterprise Institute’s work on this is blunt about it. By their definition, the upper-middle class is now the largest single income group in the country, roughly three times its size in 1979.

So what drove the climb? Two main things: more dual-earner households and rising educational attainment, especially among women. In 1970, about 11% of women held a college degree. Today, the figure is closer to 40%. More households with two paychecks and higher credentials simply earn more money.

Of course, someone will object that a fixed $100,000 line just reflects inflation nudging households over the threshold. It doesn’t. These figures are stated in constant 2022 dollars, so the bar is held flat in real terms. Households cleared it anyway, in far greater numbers. The upward migration is real, not a measurement trick.

Where the K-shape Is Real, It’s About Ownership

So is the K-shaped economy a myth? No. It’s just pointed at the wrong variable. The genuine divide isn’t income mobility. It’s wealth.

This is where the common framing of these numbers goes off the rails, and it’s worth correcting directly. You’ll often read that the top 10% own “two-thirds of the economy.” That’s not right. They don’t own the economy. They own the assets. According to the Federal Reserve’s Distributional Financial Accounts, as of the fourth quarter of 2024, the top 10% of households by wealth held about 67% of total household net worth, averaging $8.1 million each. The bottom 50% held roughly 2.5% of the total, averaging about $60,000. Net worth and GDP are not the same thing, and the difference matters.

Why is wealth so concentrated when income mobility looks so healthy? Because the two run on different engines. A decade and a half of near-zero interest rates, asset purchases, and pandemic-era stimulus inflated the price of stocks and homes. If you owned those assets, your balance sheet soared. If you rented and lived paycheck to paycheck, you got the inflation without the gains. That’s the real lower arm of the K. It’s not that the middle isn’t earning. It’s that a large slice of the country doesn’t own the things that compound.

But Everyone Says They Feel Broke

Here’s the strongest counter to everything I’ve laid out. Walk into almost any room, including rooms full of high earners, and you’ll hear the same complaint. People feel broke. Surveys back it up, with financial anxiety running high even among households pulling in six figures. So if the data say people are moving up, why does almost no one feel like they’re winning?

The answer is mostly psychological, and behavioral finance has a name for it: relative deprivation. Satisfaction isn’t set by your absolute position. It’s set by comparison, and the comparison is almost always upward and local. Live near Greenwich, Connecticut, and your reference point becomes hedge fund billionaires, which makes a $5 million net worth feel like loose change.

Step back, though, and the absurdity is obvious. A $1 million net worth puts you in the top 1.6% of adults on the planet. UBS counts roughly 60 million people in that group, and together they hold nearly half of all the wealth in the world. The United States now mints more than a thousand new millionaires a day. Yet plenty of those same millionaires go to bed feeling like they’re falling behind, because they’re measuring against the 0.001%, not the other 98.4%.

Make no mistake, real hardship exists at the bottom of the distribution, and I’m not waving it away. But a large share of the “everyone feels broke” sentiment isn’t a balance-sheet problem. It’s a scoreboard problem. People have climbed the ladder and kept their eyes locked on the rungs above them. As Tony Isola recently put it, millionaires aren’t losing the game; they’re just looking at the wrong scoreboard.

Will AI Widen the K or Narrow It?

That brings us to the question hanging over all of this. Does artificial intelligence make the divide better or worse?

The honest answer is that it could go either way, and anyone who tells you they’re certain is selling something. Start with the risk case. Goldman Sachs estimates that around 300 million jobs globally are exposed to AI automation, and that the technology could handle tasks making up roughly a quarter of U.S. work hours. Notice the word exposed. It does not mean eliminated. Goldman’s own baseline is that AI displaces about 6% to 7% of jobs over a decade, with a wide range around that figure. The roles most exposed, administrative support, basic accounting, and routine office work, sit disproportionately in the middle of the income distribution. That’s a threat aimed squarely at the households that just climbed.

Now the upside. That same Goldman research projects AI could lift global GDP by about 7% and add 1.5 points to annual productivity growth over ten years. The buildout itself creates demand. Goldman estimates the U.S. alone needs roughly 500,000 net new workers to power data centers and the grid by 2030. If AI raises broad productivity and wages follow, it could lift the bottom arm of the K rather than crush it.

So which is it? In my view, the technology itself is neutral. The outcome depends on policy and adoption, and here is where I get cautious. Policymakers are almost always reactive rather than proactive. Left to run on its own, AI tends to reward capital and high skills first, which widens the gap before it ever narrows. I’d genuinely love to be wrong on this. The setup just doesn’t favor it.

What This Means for Investors

Strip away the politics, and the K-shaped economy leaves investors with a clear instruction. Own the top arm, but respect the bottom one.

The top arm is productive capital. Companies building and deploying AI, chips, cloud platforms, and data centers are at the forefront of a structural shift, not a passing cycle. Demand for automation and analytics doesn’t ebb the way casual dining demand does. Skills-driven sectors belong here, too. Biotech, advanced manufacturing, and specialized services reward expertise and intellectual property, and the firms with real competitive moats tend to compound over long horizons. Asset-rich real estate tied to growth hubs and digital infrastructure fits the same logic, which is why logistics and data-linked facilities look better positioned than legacy retail or half-empty suburban office.

The bottom arm calls for caution, not blanket avoidance. Labor-intensive, low-margin businesses exposed to automation face real headwinds, so I’d be careful owning traditional retail or hospitality without a clear technology story. Even so, defensives still earn their keep. Staples, healthcare, and utilities provide ballast and income when the tape turns, and in an uneven economy, steady cash flow matters more, not less. Add policy to the watch list as well. Inequality is a political flashpoint, which keeps capital gains rates, corporate taxes, and labor rules in play as live risks.

One last point, and it’s the one most investors ignore. Benchmark your progress against your own plan, not against the richest person you know. The investor who measures himself against the 0.001% will always feel behind, and that feeling drives the worst decisions. Chasing the hot trade, abandoning a sound allocation, and taking on risks you don’t need always leads to poor outcomes. The data say you’re very likely doing better than you think. So continue to focus on your personal goals, rather than worrying about what others have.

The K-shaped economy is real, but it’s been badly misread. The middle class isn’t falling into poverty. It’s thinning because it’s climbing, even as a genuine gap opens between those who own assets and those who don’t. AI is about to test which side of that line you’re on. The investors who come out ahead won’t be the ones who panic over the headlines. They’ll be the ones who put capital where the productivity is, protect against the part of the economy that’s truly under pressure, and refuse to let comparison run their decisions.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 13:00

Banks Curb FOMO-Chasing Levered Bets On Korean Tech Firms

SK Hynix has been THE poster-child for 'Vol Up, Spot Up' FOMO-chasing over the past few months of exuberant semi-shortage panic-buying...

And volumes in levered Semi trades has been astronomical...

With SK Hynix standing out among the most-levered bets...

Driven by massive speculative momentum (margin loans at record highs)...

...which faced huge forced liquidations amid the recent volatility...

So it really should not be a surprise that Bloomberg reports that global banks are curbing hedge funds’ leveraged bets on Asia’s top chipmakers including SK Hynix and Samsung.

According to people familiar with the matter, brokers including Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs have raised the financing cost for hedge funds to take bullish wagers on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics shares via swaps

Banks have also tightened the size of new trades and which firms they will give them to.

Swaps are a popular way for hedge funds to bet on assets without actually owning them and with the aid of leverage. In markets like South Korea, where few hedge funds have their own trading IDs with the exchange, swaps with brokers are the default way to bet on stocks.

Swap financing rates quoted by the banks on SK Hynix and Samsung were increased to a range from 300 basis points to as much as 11% over the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR), the people added. With SOFR standing at 3.6%, the new rates translate into nearly 15% at the top end of the range.

They have taken similar steps for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

Morgan Stanley is turning away clients seeking new swap trades in the two Korean stocks while some second-tier banks have also stopped accepting additional orders in the past two weeks, the people said.

Some large global banks that are still willing to take new orders are assessing requests on a case-by-case basis, they added.

Bank of America, BNP Paribas and UBS are also lifting financing costs and restricting the size of swap trades in the two stocks.

One reason for the banks' pushback: banks were burned dramatically back in 2021, hedge fund Archegos used total return swaps (TRSs) to build highly leveraged, concentrated positions in a handful of stocks — most notably ViacomCBS and Discovery — without putting much capital up front, while evading regulatory disclosure limits and traditional margin. Once the stocks reversed their gains, the fund faced catastrophic margin calls and the banks that had funded these positions ended up nursing massive losses, most notably Credit Suisse which lost $5.5 billion and which was the precursor to the bank's eventual failure and acqusition by UBS a little over a year later. 

Archegos managed about $10 billion of its own money but leveraged it into an estimated $50 to $100 billion in stock exposure using total return swaps across several banks; a similar trade is taking place now with the two Korean memory stocks. The only question is why funds are involved, and stand to suffer catastrophic losses once the memory trade reverses. 

Banks are concerned that a major correction would affect the value of their clients’ holdings, leading to potential defaults on margin calls and ultimately threatening losses for banks, the people said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 12:40

Kuwait Joins "Dark-Mode" Tanker Traffic Through Hormuz

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Kuwait appears to have joined a growing bunch of Middle Eastern oil and gas producers that have moved to ship energy cargoes in dark mode through the Strait of Hormuz.

The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carrier Gas Umm Al Rowaisat, which is owned by the national Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, has passed through the Strait in recent days, then transferred the cargo onto another ship which is currently en route to an Indian port, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Thursday.

The Gas Umm Al Rowaisat loaded LPG in May in the Gulf, and then switched off its AIS positioning, before reappearing close to the Indian coast this weekend, according to the data.

This is the latest instance of a tanker going dark as it moves through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE, Iraq, and other Gulf producers have increased shipments of oil, LNG, and LPG on tankers in dark mode in recent weeks.

Since the war began on February 28, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by 90% to 95% compared to pre-war levels, leaving the market about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) short of crude and fuel supply that was previously freely flowing to buyers.

Some oil cargoes continue to trickle through the critical chokepoint, but under increasingly opaque operating conditions, complicating the tracking of oil and gas flows and obscuring the visibility of how much energy supply actually reaches buyers these days.

More vessels are leaving the region after passing the Strait of Hormuz in a dark mode with transponders switched off, and those entering the Persian Gulf to load cargoes are increasingly doing the same.

The dark-mode tactics, once the feature of Iran-linked vessels aiming to skirt sanctions, are now the norm for the majority of commercial traffic at the Strait of Hormuz, energy flow-tracking firms say.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 12:20

Blackrock's Private Credit Fund Gates Investors Again After Redemption Requests Surge

The market may be in full-blown face-ripping bubble mode, and software stocks are now gripped in by a category 5 gamma squeeze hurricane, but not even that is helping the ongoing debacle that is private credit.

One week after Cliffwater's Private Credit fund gated investors for a second straight quarter, and days after Blackstone also gated investors in its private credit fund for the first time (recall during Q1, the fund allowed investors to redeem a record 7.9% after tapping senior executives to help finance the withdrawals with hundreds of millions of their own cash, but when faced with an even bigger flood of redemptions in Q2 it gave up and decided to join the gate parade), BlackRock capped redemptions from its flagship private credit fund for the second straight quarter after investors sought to pull about 13%, a sign that shareholders remain extremely nervous about the health of the $1.8 trillion private credit market.

Blackrock's HPS Corporate Lending Fund, known as HLEND, said it would allow only 5% redemptions, according to a filing Friday. The request for 13.3% was about 50% higher than the prior quarter when shareholders asked to redeem 9.3% of their shares. 

So far this quarter we have seen an acceleration in redemption requests as private credit investors clearly are concerned about their liquidity despite the raging bull market in all other asset classes.

“This liquidity feature is critical to HLEND’s ability to provide its investors with a premium return to public credit markets,” the firm said in a letter to investors. “This profile is further bolstered by continued subscriptions and distribution reinvestment, which together are expected to more than fully offset repurchases during the first six months of 2026.”

As Bloomberg reminds us, HLEND’s decision to cap redemptions in the previous quarter was the first major instance of a private credit manager taking action to enforce the limit and manage liquidity since concerns over underwriting standards and exposure to software businesses vulnerable to AI disruption bubbled to the surface early in the year.

The move was a contrast to its top rivals including Blackstone, which had gone to great lengths to satisfy investor demands for cash. But this quarter, Blackstone also enforced the 5% limit on its flagship private credit fund after investors asked to redeem even more money than in the prior period. 

Indeed, redemption requests are set to increase across the industry as investors redouble efforts to claw back money after being restricted. And there’s persistent concerns about the credit cycle turning, with industry leaders warning of a rise in defaults as artificial intelligence continues to disrupt businesses and borrowings from the era of ultra-low rates comes due.

HLEND has produced a 10.2% annualized total return since it was formed, the letter said, which is cold comfort to those investors who are hoping to redeem their profits and instead receive a gating notification. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 12:00

US Pulling Large Chunk Of Jets, Refueling Tankers From NATO Defense, Realigning Further East

In a move that surprises absolutely no one paying attention, the United States is planning to significantly slash the number of fighter jets and warships it feeds into the NATO machine in Europe, the New York Times reported Thursday.

The reported cutbacks hit right as panicked European nations scramble to patch up their own defense capacities. Though long expected given President Trump's somewhat adverse relationship with the NATO alliance, and fiercely critical rhetoric continuously directed at Brussels, European capitals are deeply concerned given they are under the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fifth year.

via USAF

Washington is officially out of patience while Trump has openly mocked the alliance as a "paper tiger" and labeled its members "cowards" - earlier venting his frustration over Europe's refusal to jump into the US-Israeli war against Iran.

According to two unidentified senior European officials cited by the NYT, Washington's upcoming retreat from the continent includes drawing down the number of US fighter jets supplied to Europe by one-third, as well as cutting all eight aerial refueling tankers conventionally provided (as most of the Pentagon's refueling tanker planes are currently in Tel Aviv anyway), and drastically reducing maritime reconnaissance aircraft.

Other prime military assets slated to be reallocated include a missile-launching submarine, an aircraft carrier, a group of bomber aircraft, and a handful of jets and warships. All of this was already previewed and leaked, but the fresh Times reporting provides further confirmation.

The writing has been on the wall for weeks, given that US European Command explicitly stated this month that it would reassess Washington's contributions to NATO to "ensure Europe takes primary responsibility for its own conventional defense."

We featured previous reporting which outlined a new US framework for defense of Europe based on the US mainly 'just' providing nuclear deterrent rather than the broad military support it has historically guaranteed.

The primary driver for this withdrawal is the US military's pivot toward the Asia-Pacific, though officials also cited the need for flexibility to commit assets to military campaigns in the Middle East and the Western Hemisphere. 

While NATO leadership officially portrays the move as a way to reduce "over-dependence" on the US, European diplomats find the requirements far more severe than anticipated, with European leaders reportedly stunned by the scale and speed of the requirements.

Reportedly in secret meetings some representatives even interpreted the US insistence on rapid compliance as an "indirect threat" toward those who fail to act quickly.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 11:20

Gas Prices Fall For 3rd Straight Week

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline declined for three consecutive weeks, dropping from $4.56 per gallon on May 21 to $4.12 per gallon on Thursday.

Lower gasoline prices are “delivering some relief to drivers during the busy summer travel season,” the American Automobile Association (AAA) said in a June 11 statement.

“Gas prices typically peak around this time of year, but uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz makes this year more unpredictable. Pump prices remain at four-year highs, but the national average is currently far from the record set on June 11, 2022, of $5 per gallon.”

On Friday, prices declined marginally to $4.1 per gallon, which is lower by roughly 40 cents from a month back, according to AAA data. In five states, prices exceeded $5 per gallon—California, Hawaii, Washington, Alaska, and Oregon.

In its statement, AAA attributed the three-week decline to crude oil prices remaining below the $100 per barrel level.

Brent crude oil futures prices shot up after the war began, hitting a high of over $126 per barrel on April 30. Oil was trading at $87.44 per barrel as of 6:50 a.m. EDT on Friday, up from around $72 per barrel on Feb. 27, the day prior to the breakout of the war. Prices have remained below the $100 level every trading day this month.

Iran has repeatedly attacked and threatened commercial ships transiting via the Strait of Hormuz since the war started. The strait is a crucial shipping waterway located south of Iran through which over 20 percent of global seaborne oil trade transits. The disruption of shipments via the Strait has pushed up oil prices.

The conflict between the United States and Iran has intensified in recent days. On June 10, the U.S. military launched new strikes on Iran after it struck an American helicopter in a violation of the ceasefire. Iran then launched attacks against U.S. air and naval assets across Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

On Thursday, the U.S. Central Command said American forces disabled a third oil tanker that was attempting to carry Iranian oil as part of a maritime blockade imposed on Iran’s ports. Since the blockade came into effect on April 13, U.S. forces have disabled nine vessels in total and redirected 135 ships.

Oil Price Forecast

In a June 11 post, ING Bank said there is “little tangible evidence” of any imminent deal between Washington and Tehran to get energy supplies flowing normally via the Strait of Hormuz.

As such, the oil market is expected to continue tightening, eventually reaching a level where it becomes highly vulnerable to “significant upside.”

“From an inventory perspective, we believe that the end of July could be an inflection point for the market if there is no improvement in energy flows from the Persian Gulf. This could see ICE Brent spike to $120-130/bbl, prompting increased pressure to come to a deal,” the bank said.

“And failing a deal, one can’t rule out the possibility that we get to a point where energy-starved buyers are more willing to pay Iran tolls for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.”

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted in its June 9 Energy Outlook report that oil shipments via the strait may only resume in the third quarter of 2026.

However, even with the resumption of transit, it will likely take several months for the traffic to hit pre-conflict levels, which is not expected to happen until early 2027, the EIA said, adding that Brent crude oil spot prices are predicted to average $105 per barrel in June and July.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said on Thursday that a U.S.–Iran deal is close.

“We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran,” Trump said in the Oval Office. “And we’re going to be, subject to finalization of documents, which should get done over the next few days, probably have a signing, maybe in Europe.”

Trump said the deal has been approved by Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

In a June 11 Truth Social post, the U.S. president said the final points of the deal have been discussed and approved by other parties involved in the conflict, including Saudi Arabia, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

“The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized,” Trump said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 11:00

National Mall Vandalized With '8647' Markings Ahead Of Independence Celebrations

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Park Police and federal officials opened an investigation Thursday after a sizable marking resembling “8647” was etched into the lawn of the National Mall.

The incident occurred amid preparations for major events celebrating the nation’s 250th anniversary of independence.

A Reuters photographer witnessed the marking from atop the Washington Monument before authorities, including members of the National Guard, arrived on scene near the World War II Memorial. The numbers, formed by discolored or browned grass against the surrounding grass, appeared to be massive.

The phrase “8647” comes from the restaurant slang “86,” which means to remove or get rid of, combined with 47 to reference President Donald Trump, currently sitting as the 47th president. Trump allies and the Department of Justice have interpreted the prevalence of the phrase as potential calls to violence as opposed to mere political expression.

An Interior Department spokesperson said in a statement that the act was “deranged vandalism.”

“Any threat against the president is taken very seriously by the Department, and our U.S. Park Police will investigate this incident and hold those responsible accountable,” the spokesperson said.

The U.S. Park Police said the cause of the grass discoloration has yet to be determined, though samples have been taken for testing as part of the continuing investigation.

This latest episode follows a previous high-profile case: the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey on charges related to a social media post in 2025 featuring seashells arranged as “8647.”

“Threatening the life of the president of the United States will never be tolerated by the Department of Justice,” acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in April this year.

“Over the past year, this department has charged dozens of cases involving threats against all sorts of individuals. We take these seriously, every single one of them.”

Federal prosecutors tied the term to alleged threats against the president. Comey contended that his actions were not intended as such, and he challenged the accusations on free speech grounds.

“A child knows what that meant,” Trump said in May 2025. “If you’re the FBI director and you don’t know what that meant, that meant assassination, and it says it loud and clear.”

The National Mall has hosted recent events such as the “Rededicate 250“ prayer celebration earlier this year, which attracted thousands to the grounds for a meditation on the nation’s founding principles.

Preparations are underway for Independence Day festivities, including military parades, museum exhibitions, and public programs honoring America’s heritage.

Trump has pledged to refurbish the Mall, encompassing efforts to restore features like the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and plans for the semiquincentennial celebrations, with a “Great American State Fair“ set to begin later this month.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 10:20

UMich Sentiment Bounces Off Record Low In June, Inflation Fears Fade

After reaching all-time record lows in May, analysts expected UMich's Sentiment index to rebound modestly in preliminary June data and it did, up from 44.8 to 48.9 (well above 46.0 exp), with consumers experiencing some relief due to the early-month easing in gasoline prices.

Source: Bloomberg

"This measured improvement in sentiment was widespread, seen across age, education, and political party," said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu, adding that "lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets."

Well that will wreck the Democrats narrative...

Inflation expectations dropped in this early June data...

Once again we are confused because while the headline UMich inflation expectation over the next year declined, all political parties saw higher expectations (and Independents now have a higher inflation expectation that Democrats while Republican expectations are rising)...

Are they just making this shit up?

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 10:11

Kennedy Center Appeals Order Requiring Removal Of Trump's Name

Via American Greatness,

The Kennedy Center’s board of trustees voted Thursday to challenge a federal judge’s order requiring President Donald Trump’s name to be removed from the performing arts center.

According to court filings, the board formally appealed US District Judge Christopher Cooper’s ruling just before the court-imposed deadline for removing Trump’s name from the building and related materials.

Earlier Thursday, the board also voted to seek a stay of Cooper’s order, according to two individuals familiar with the meeting who spoke to The Washington Post.

To obtain a stay, attorneys for the center must demonstrate a likelihood of success on appeal and argue that removing Trump’s name would cause irreparable harm.

The dispute stems from Cooper’s earlier ruling against the Trump administration and the Kennedy Center board.

The judge ordered Trump’s name removed from the exterior of the building, the center’s website, merchandise and other materials associated with the institution. Cooper also blocked a planned two-year closure for renovations, finding the move unlawful.

The court had given the Kennedy Center until June 12 to comply with the order.

Cooper sided with Rep. Joyce Beatty, D-OH, an ex officio member of the board who challenged the decision to rename the center.

The judge concluded that Congress established the institution as a living memorial to President John F. Kennedy following his assassination and that the board lacked the authority to alter that designation.

Before filing its appeal, Kennedy Center officials indicated they would comply with the court’s order while weighing further legal action.

“We are complying with the court’s order while evaluating all legal options to preserve this revitalization and recognize President Trump’s leadership,” Roma Daravi, the center’s vice president of public relations, previously said.

The center has already removed Trump’s name from several official platforms, including its website, YouTube channel and invitations to its annual honors ceremony.

However, references to Trump remained visible Thursday on the Kennedy Center’s Instagram, Facebook and X social media accounts.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 10:00

Fool Me Once? Shame On You. Fool Me 39 Times...?

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

After several days of strikes against Iran, and several morning announcements that strikes were set to continue, Trump announced via Truth Social that the “scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran” have been cancelled as a peace deal has been agreed upon. Indeed, “discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved…the Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this transaction is finalized — time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.”

According to our recently published energy strategy report, 103 Days, 38 Peace Deals, yesterday’s announcement would constitute the 39th peace deal declared since the onset of the war. Speaking of, the report highlights the “massive drop in Chinese imports,” leading to a downward adjustment of Rabobank’s brent crude oil forecasts, now projecting $103/bbl in Q3 of this year.

WATCH: CNN montage of Trump saying he's close to a deal with Iran. He's made the claim 39 times since the war began.pic.twitter.com/o2j782A2jF

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 12, 2026

But back to the peace deal, it should be noted that the provided list of “all parties involved” does not include one party who some would argue is pretty heavily involved…Iran. Perhaps Iran was counted in the “and others” part of the list, but this wouldn’t be the first time the US proposed a deal it thinks Iran can’t refuse, just for Iran to either outright refuse it, or announce that it never received such a peace deal in the first place. It should also be noted that some of the “involved parties” who were listed, like Israel and Pakistan, have confirmed that they had not been informed of any agreement at the time the peace deal was initially announced.

That doesn’t mean that this peace deal is for certain another empty announcement. Indeed, economists often assume things turn out similar to precedent, of course, until they don’t. But the market’s reaction to the deal coupled with the major IPO events today may add further credence to our view that defense-related rhetoric these days has just as much to do with financial markets as they do with geopolitics.

The S&P 500 had sunk around 4.4% from its recent high of $7,610 to $7,277. The peace deal announcement, however, sparked a sharp sell-off in brent crude oil of $3, breaking to its lowest level since April. The move in oil dragged interest rates down—with the 10 year down more than 8bp to trade below 4.45% again—and pulled stocks back up, fueling an almost 1.7% upwards jump in the S&P and a 3.5% jump in the NASDAQ. Coincidentally, SpaceX’s IPO, which has been said to “draw more than $100 billion in retail orders,” is also scheduled for today.

Early yesterday morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on X that “any damage [Iran] inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian accounts. Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.” This draws attention to one of the key contentions between the US and Iran when it comes to striking a deal, in that Iran wants USD 12 billion of Iranian funds unfrozen if an interim deal is achieved, which the US is reluctant to accept, remembering when the Obama Administration unfroze around USD 100 billion as part of the JCPOA in 2015, the consequences of which the US may or may not be dealing with today.

But Axios reports that this peace deal is different from the others, with “sources” saying that “gaps have been narrowed” on key issues like unfreezing Iranian assets, the process for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and how negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear program would be conducted.

Rates started the day yesterday bubbling higher after a hot PPI print, registering 1.1% m/m in the headline and 0.8% m/m when excluding food, energy, and trade. While the 1.1% headline print is hot enough to give anyone the sweats, the core print is particularly concerning, as it strips out the first order inflationary effects and reveals that second order inflation pressures may have already started to crawl out of the woodwork on the production side. There is only so much time before these costs are likely to be passed onto the consumer. After the PPI data release, the OIS curve had been pricing in around one Fed hike by year end. However, that number dropped to only 70% of a hike after the peace deal announcement.

In the Eurozone, meanwhile, the ECB is already full steam ahead. Yesterday, the ECB released its decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.25%, making it the first major central bank to hike rates. The decision statement cites that “the war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area.” Our ECB whisperer, Bas van Geffen, is forecasting the next hike at the September meeting. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 09:45

Clinton-Appointed Federal Judge Bars Texas AG Paxton's Lawsuit Against ActBlue

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge has barred Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton from pursuing his state court lawsuit against ActBlue, a major Democratic online fundraising platform.

President Clinton-appointed U.S. District Judge Richard Stearns ruled Thursday that the case represented no more than a retaliation campaign for ActBlue’s political activities supporting Paxton’s opponent in the 2026 U.S. Senate race.

Stearns issued a preliminary injunction preventing Paxton from pursuing the Texas case. The judge found the lawsuit attempted to undermine protected political speech and therefore violated the First Amendment.

“The truth is plain and captured in Paxton’s own declarations: The lawsuit was filed in retaliation for (and in an attempt to suppress) ActBlue’s efforts to fund Talarico’s campaign,” Stearns wrote in the ruling.

Neither Paxton’s office nor ActBlue immediately returned a request for comment.

Paxton filed the initial lawsuit in April in Texas state court as he campaigned as the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate seat.

The suit singled out ActBlue, a Massachusetts-based fundraising platform that claims to have raised billions for Democratic candidates and causes since its founding in 2004. It sought civil penalties and an order blocking ActBlue from accepting certain gift card donations.

The Texas attorney general alleged that ActBlue employed deceptive practices after the fundraising platform resumed gift card and foreign prepaid debit card donations after informing Congress that it had ceased conducting the transactions. Paxton alleged the practices could empower foreign nationals to hide their identities while making political contributions, potentially in violation of state law.

The action mirrors wider Republican-led scrutiny of online fundraising platforms, which has included directives from the Trump administration to the Justice Department.

ActBlue responded with its own federal lawsuit filed in Boston in May. The platform contended that Paxton’s investigation and state court lawsuit amounted to unconstitutional retaliation designed to punish it for supporting Democratic candidates, namely Democrat James Talarico, Paxton’s opponent in the Texas Senate contest. ActBlue requested the court declare the actions violations of the First and Fourteenth Amendments and to block them.

Stearns ruled on behalf of ActBlue on the preliminary request, criticizing what he said was Paxton’s history of filing retaliatory lawsuits. The injunction bars Paxton from advancing the state case.

ActBlue’s operations have received increased scrutiny lately. The platform’s CEO, Regina Wallace-Jones, appeared before a House Administration Committee hearing as panel Republicans questioned the organization’s processes for screening foreign contributions and more. Wallace-Jones invoked her Fifth Amendment right during the session. She wrote in an opinion article published in The Washington Post on the same day that she would do so “against self-incrimination.”

ActBlue has long been the primary vehicle for small-dollar donations to Democratic candidates and progressive organizations.

Thursday’s ruling allows ActBlue to continue operations while the related claims work their way through the legal system.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 09:10

DOJ Probes Big Banks For Alleged "Debanking" Of Clients

The US Dept of Justice is intensifying scrutiny of some of the country’s largest financial institutions over allegations that customers were denied banking services, or "debanked" for political or ideological reasons, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, led by Jeanine Pirro, has reportedly issued subpoenas to several major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo. Investigators are seeking information on account closures, customer offboarding decisions, and internal records explaining why certain individuals or businesses were denied access to banking services.

According to the WSJ, the inquiry builds on a broader effort launched by the Trump administration to examine claims that banks used their market power to exclude politically disfavored customers or entire industries from the financial system. Supporters of the investigation argue that concerns about debanking have circulated for years, particularly among conservatives and businesses operating in controversial but legal sectors, yet have received limited attention from regulators and law enforcement.

According to reports, prosecutors are requesting lists of customers who may have been removed from banking relationships, as well as documentation supporting those decisions. The investigation appears to be running alongside a review by federal banking regulators, including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which previously indicated it had found preliminary evidence suggesting certain industries may have faced heightened barriers to banking access.

Banks have consistently rejected accusations that political affiliation plays any role in their decisions. Industry representatives maintain that account closures are driven by compliance obligations, anti-money-laundering requirements, risk management concerns, and other regulatory expectations imposed on financial institutions.

A central issue for investigators will be whether any laws were violated when banks chose to terminate customer relationships or avoid particular sectors altogether. Prosecutors are reportedly evaluating potential claims under the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act (FIRREA), a statute that has historically been used in major financial misconduct cases.

The investigation represents one of the most significant federal efforts to date to examine allegations of politically motivated debanking. Whether it ultimately uncovers unlawful conduct remains to be seen, but for many observers, the fact that federal authorities are now formally examining these claims is a step that should have happened years ago.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 08:50

Futures Rally Amid Fresh Iran Peace Hopes, All Eyes On SpaceX

US stock futures and global markets are higher, extending their rally while oil hit the lowest level in months following fresh reports that the US and Iran are nearing a provisional agreement to end their war, even if top leadership has yet to sign off. Meanwhile, all eyes are on SpaceX - the world's biggest IPO- where shadow markets are pricing a spike of at least 35% for SpaceX on its debut, while online market see odds of a 30% close at roughly breakeven. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% after the benchmark climbed 1.8% in the previous session. Pre-market, all Mag 7 are higher led by GOOGL and META. Treasuries held steady after Thursday's gain: 10Y yields are at 4.46%. The DXY dollar index fell 21bp to 99.639. Commodities are all lower: WTI fell $3.90 to $83.81 while Brent slid almost 4% to head for its first close below $88 a barrel since the first week of the war. Base/precious metals are unchanged; ags are all lower. Today's US economic data calendar includes June University of Michigan sentiment at 10am.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Alphabet +1.3%, Meta +1%, Amazon +1%, Nvidia +0.6%, Microsoft +0.6%, Tesla +0.7%, Apple +0.4%)

• Rocket, satellite and space-linked companies gain after Elon Musk’s SpaceX raised $75 billion in its initial public offering. Movers include EchoStar +5% and Rocket Lab (RKLB) +4%.
• Adobe (ADBE) falls 6% after the company said its chief financial officer, Dan Durn, would depart, leaving the company without a top tier of veteran leadership after Chief Executive Officer Shantanu Narayen announced he would step aside.
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gains 2% as Citi upgraded the chipmaker to buy, seeing the company as a key beneficiary of AI.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) slips 1% after appointing Adobe’s Dan Durn as chief financial officer, succeeding Willem Meintjes.
• Travelers Cos. (TRV) slips 2% after Barclays cut its the recommendation on the property and casualty insurance company to underweight, saying that profit upside in the sector is getting more difficult to find.

In other corporate news, Adobe said its CFO would depart, leaving the company without a top tier of veteran leadership after the CEO announced in March that he would step aside. Flutter Entertainment, the owner of FanDuel, the largest player in US sports betting, plans to delist from trading in London

Sentiment was lifted overnight amid fresh expectations that the conflict with Iran is drawing to a close. In the latest developments on a draft deal, a Group of Seven official said an agreement could be signed as soon as Sunday. Iran’s foreign ministry told state-run media that a framework text was nearly finalized (full details here). The semi-official Mehr agency reported that the draft contained 14 provisions, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and 60 days of negotiations on nuclear issues. Some have panned the MOU as one which concedes to Iran, giving the country monetary benefits upfront, while leaving the key negotiations for the back-end.

That said, traders are keen for an end to the more than 100-day war that has roiled global markets and caused the biggest oil-supply shock in history. While President Donald Trump signaled Thursday that a deal should get done shortly, traders have remained wary as previous bursts of optimism have ended in disappointment.

“Markets would believe the deal is reached when we have the actual agreement signed and the Strait of Hormuz can be opened,” said Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “For now, markets are in relief mode that further escalation can be avoided.”

As for SpaceX, differences of opinion on the $75 billion IPO - the world's biggest - are easy to find on vision, valuation, opportunity and risks, but perhaps the most encouraging sign for traders may be the ability for the market to absorb record equity issuance. There’s been a record flood of equity issuance over the past two weeks, between SpaceX’s debut and Alphabet’s deal, with EPFR analysts saying it leaves “shrinking aggregate cash available to support broader equity valuations.” Meanwhile US equity funds had an 11th week of inflows, the longest streak since Dec., as tech funds had their biggest inflow ever, according to Bank of America.

On SpaceX valuation, “expensive” has never been a catalyst with Elon Musk, notes Amanda Lyons at Energy Group Capital, and “betting against his premium has been a losing trade for a decade.” Trading in the stock is likely to be a read for risk appetite while “the danger is that a genuine business and a quasi-religious premium are being sold in the same ticker, and most buyers aren’t separating the two,” Lyons adds. 

“There appears to be continued investor appetite for technology-related growth stories, particularly those with exposure to AI,” said Tomás García-Purriños at Santander Asset Management. “The pipeline of expected IPOs in 2026 suggests that investor interest in technology, digital infrastructure and AI-related themes remains healthy, extending well beyond a handful of high-profile names.”

Bloomberg-compiled data covering 66 of the biggest US tech IPOs and direct listings since 2012 shows that an initial pop is near-universal. Among the pure IPOs, 86% closed above their offer price on day one, with a median 36% gain. After that, dispersion kicks in.

Elsewhere, overnight Bloomberg reported that global banks including Citi, JPMorgan and Goldman are said to be curbing hedge funds’ leveraged bets on Asia’s top chipmakers including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics after a blistering rally this year raised concerns of a potential pullback.

Also overnight, Goldman Sachs cut its forecasts for crude oil prices next year by $5 a barrel on higher supply and lower demand. The US declared a power emergency in the southeastern US as forecasters warned of dangerous heat that’s likely to stress power grids along the country’s east coast. 

Traders in Europe and Asia raced to catch up with Wall Street’s chipmaker-led gains from Thursday. The Stoxx 600 rose 1.5% on optimism about a deal between the US and Iran builds, prompted by President Trump scrapping strikes and extended by a report that a draft deal is under discussion, though one that still needs approval from authorities. Here are the biggest movers Friday: 

• Shares in European energy and fossil-fuel firms fall while airlines gain after President Donald Trump said a peace deal with Iran could be signed as soon as the weekend, comments that pushed down oil prices
• Homebuilders are among the best-performing stocks in the UK on Friday as money markets pare bets on BOE rate hikes and swap rates used to price mortgages decline. The move is driven by sliding oil prices on Middle East optimism
• FlatexDEGIRO shares jump as much as 7.5% after the online brokerage was awarded a new overweight rating at Barclays following the stock’s de-rating this year, while Avanza rises as much as 5.3% after being upgraded
• Getinge gains as much as 4.9%, the most since Oct. 21, after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to buy from hold, citing an improving outlook for the Swedish health-care equipment firm
• Halma shares rise as much as 4.3%, rebounding from a two-month low following the record 15% drop in the share price on Thursday after the UK industrial group’s guidance for its Photonics business fell short of expectations
• Nokia gains as much as 6.7% after JPMorgan raised its PT on the company, saying its operating profit in 2028 can beat the company’s own guidance — issued during the capital markets day in November — by more than 50%
• Colruyt shares rise as much as 8.6% as Oddo BHF analyst Robert Jan Vos upgrades the retailer to outperform from neutral and lifts his price target ahead of full-year results on June 16 in anticipation of continued margin revival
• Exail shares fall as much as 21% as the company disagrees with financial partner ICG over the size of a payment for bonds and preferred shares as ICG exits its investment in the French defense firm
• Acciona Energía shares are 9.7% higher Friday in Madrid trading following a Cinco Días report that Brookfield, KKR are among investors that Acciona has reached out to gauge interest on its renewables unit
• Glanbia drops as much as 4.3% to €21.62 after biggest shareholder Tirlán Co-Operative Society sold down its stake in the Irish manufacturer of workout supplements and energy bars
• LPP slumps as much as 7.8%, the most in a month, after the Polish fashion retailer slowed its expansion in response to rising cannibalization risk within its key Sinsay brand

Asian stocks rallied as technology shares rebounded, helped by President Donald Trump’s claim that a deal with Iran was close.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 3.5%, the most in more than two months, before paring some gains. Chipmakers Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC were among the biggest contributors. South Korea’s Kospi led gains among regional benchmarks, closing 4.6% higher after gaining as much as 8.6% earlier. Most other markets were also in the green. Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• Chow Tai Fook’s shares surge as much as 13%, the most since June 2019, after its full-year earnings and FY27 guidance both beat estimates. The gold retailer saw stronger growth in April–May, driven by a recovery in demand for weight-based gold jewelry amid a retreat in gold prices, according to analysts.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index only seeing modest moves after a four-day run of losses and now little changed, having wiped out its gains on the Iran headlines. 

In rates, treasuries are marginally richer across the curve, broadly holding late gains seen on Thursday, following latest developments on a draft US-Iran peace deal which includes a G7 official saying an agreement could be signed as soon as Sunday. US yields richer by around 1bp across belly of the curve with 10-year trading at 4.455%, close to Thursday’s closing levels, as oil extended declines, continuing to underpin Treasuries and support stocks. Bunds and gilts outperform, catching up with Thursday’s late Treasuries gains after the European close. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals. Citibank’s $6.25b transaction led a three-deal $10.25b slate on Thursday. Issuers paid less than 1bp on deals that were 4.8 times covered. Weekly volume at $27b is just shy of the $30b dealers’ projections

In commodities, WTI futures lower by 3.4% on the day while Brent heads for its first close below $88 a barrel since the first week of the war. Gold was little changed and Bitcoin posted small gains.

Today's US economic data calendar includes June University of Michigan sentiment at 10am.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The US and Iran moved closer to an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially around next week’s G-7 meeting, according to senior officials. The US is to withdraw forces from the area surrounding Iran under a potential deal, Iran’s semi-official news agency Mehr reported. BBG
• The United States plans to significantly reduce the aircraft and warships that it makes available for NATO operations in Europe, according to two senior European officials, accelerating America’s effort to scale down the protection it has offered to European allies for eight decades. NYT
• Global banks are curbing hedge funds’ leveraged bets on Asia’s top chipmakers including SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. after a blistering rally this year raised concerns of a potential pullback. BBG
• Nvidia has told Chinese clients that its new "Vera" central processors for AI data centers could be available as soon as August and that they can begin placing orders, three sources familiar with the matter said. BBG
• China told big state-owned banks to reduce their lending in the interbank market, according to people familiar with the matter, in an effort to prevent borrowing costs from drifting too far below the policy interest rate. BBG
• Chinese investors are rushing to Hong Kong to open bank accounts and buy investment products, as Beijing cracks down on cross-border capital flows in a shift that shareholders fear may dent returns. FT
• The ECB is prepared to raise rates again next month if the shock from the war requires it, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said. BBG
• The US insurance industry’s standard setter has begun to examine credit risks linked to data center projects, which are increasingly showing up in insurers’ investment portfolios. FT
• Big companies and startups, chafing at rapidly escalating artificial intelligence costs, are increasingly turning to tools that tap in to cheaper AI models, including some from China. That’s raising pressure on industry leaders OpenAI and Anthropic to lower their prices, a prospect that could hurt their ability to grow into profitable enterprises. WSJ
• US Senate Banking Committee is weighing a markup of export control legislation. It could tee up the bills for inclusion in the next annual defense policy package, no final decision has been made yet: Punchbowl 
• US President Trump said regarding fertilizer prices, that they might look into federal aid, and are looking at doing some form of help.
• BofA weekly flow data shows USD 20.8bln into bonds (59th straight week of inflows), USD 2.5bln out of cash, USD 31.5bln into stocks, USD 0.7bln out of crypto (record inflows over 5 weeks), USD 2.3bln out of gold (4th straight week of outflows).

Iran News

• Iranian media Mehr News reported that the US-Iran 14-point MoU includes a US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran, lift the naval blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift oil sanctions, and release frozen Iranian funds; nuclear issue pushed back by 60 days for final agreement. Additionally, the US is required to present a plan to rebuild Iran’s economy, while the final negotiations between the two countries should focus on nuclear and economic issues, without discussing Iran’s missile program. This text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran. 
• The US-Iran MoU is likely to be signed next week, according to CBS citing sources, with Bloomberg later reporting that it could happen at the G7 meeting in Geneva next week. First steps include ensuring "freedom of trade" by demining and opening the Strait of Hormuz. The signing would kick off 60 days of talks to negotiate details. In principle, Iran would commit to a lockout of 15-20 years during which it would not enrich uranium and would dismantle its nuclear sites. In exchange for taking these steps, Iran would receive financial relief staggered over time and sequenced to correspond with compliance.
• US President Trump said he understands that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal and that lifting the blockade is part of the Iran deal, while he added that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon and that they want to make a deal a lot more than he does. Trump added it's a very strong MOU, they found Iran to be rational, and they will make a deal. Furthermore, he said the Strait will open immediately upon MOU signing, maybe Saturday or Monday, but doesn't want to set a deadline for the deal, and stated a Kharg Island deal would be off the table now.
• US President Trump said at a virtual campaign rally that they settled up with Iran and it is pretty much completed, while they got everything they wanted and claimed they ended the war with Iran.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu held a call with US President Trump on Thursday night regarding the possibility of a pending peace deal between the US and Iran, according to CBS News.
• Airplanes associated with US VP Vance's advance team are moving ahead of potential Iran MoU signing, according to New York Post reporter.
• Iran state media said Tehran would not cede control of Hormuz under draft US deal, AFP reported.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and the issue has not been finalised, while it added that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is less secure due to US actions and that what is being said about the time and place of signing the agreement is media speculation. Furthermore, the spokesperson said that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but stated that the text of the agreement is almost ready.
• Sources cited by Al Hadath said Iran has given final approval, which Qatar conveyed to the US.
• Iranian state media reported that explosions heard in Sirik was related to a confrontation with a vessel that violated regulations whilst attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Israeli airstrike reported in Jebchit, southern Lebanon, according to Al Araby.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

• APAC stocks rallied following on from the gains on Wall St, after President Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran and touted a US-Iran deal, which could be signed as soon as the weekend and would open the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump claimed the US ended the war with Iran and he understood that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal. However, Iran pushed back on this as a Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but acknowledged that the text of the deal was almost ready.
• ASX 200 climbed higher as outperformance in mining, materials and resources led the advances, while energy was pressured due to the drop in oil prices, and defensives also lagged amid the risk-on environment.
• Nikkei 225 surged at the open and briefly tested the 67,000 level, with the index helped by lower oil prices and with tech and mining stocks sitting comfortably among the list of biggest gainers.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the euphoria with mining stocks among the notable gainers, while Chow Tai Fook was front-running the advances after it reported record full-year profit.

Top Asian News

• China tells big banks to curb interbank loans to ease cash glut.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they are aiming to broaden retail JGB offerings and that retail Japanese government bonds remain unappreciated by households, while she stated that no impact is expected on the central bank policy meeting after BoJ Governor Ueda was hospitalised.
• India is willing to let fiscal gap widen to as much as 4.8% of GDP from a previous 4.3%, according to Bloomberg

European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.8%) start the last trading day of the week on a firmer footing and have completely reversed the losses seen at the start of the week. This comes on hopes of a US-Iran deal, with US President Trump stating that it could be signed as early as this weekend in Europe. Further upside was spurred after Mehr News reported that the MoU with the US includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil sanctions, and releasing frozen Iranian funds. European sectors are entirely in the green bar Energy (-3.1%). Travel & Leisure (+5.2%) is the clear outperformer, followed by Banks (+4.2%) and Consumer Products & Services (+3.7%). Cyclicals have been affected the most since the start of the Iran war, so hopes of an end would benefit these sectors the most.

Top European News

• Bundesbank sees German GDP growth at 0.5% in 2026, 0.8% in 2027; German inflation seen at 2.9% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027.

FX

• Snapshot: DXY is incrementally firmer, whilst G10s mixed vs the USD this morning. The tentative action comes after US President Trump claimed that he had a deal with Iran, and that the signing of the MoU would probably happen in Europe. However, the Iranians pushed back on this claim. This morning, a Mehr report revealing the details of the 14-point plan garnered some attention, which helped boost global sentiment - though action was fairly muted in the FX space.
• DXY is slightly firmer today despite significantly lower oil prices after a number of geopolitical updates in the last 24 hours. (See commodities for more details). In recent trade, USD was hit as details of the 14-point US-Iran MoU accelerated the risk-on bias. On this reporting, DXY moved towards Thursday's lows of 99.58, currently 99.72 at the time of writing. Focus for the remainder of the day shifts to the UoM Sentiment survey, but market participants will likely be more attentive of the geopolitical environment and potentially some early positioning heading into a weekend which could see a deal between US-Iran be signed.
• EUR and GBP trade has chopped on either side of the unchanged mark this morning. The single currency has had a number of ECB speak to contend with, but by in-large has been largely in-fitting with President Lagarde’s comments on Thursday. A notable Bloomberg sources piece suggested that some policymakers could see a hike as soon as July. Elsewhere, the GBP had a weak growth report to digest – overall it does little to shift the mood heading into the next week’s meeting, but will exacerbate the growth woes had the Bank.
• NOK is the worst G10 performer on account of lower oil prices as participants assess implications for Terms of Trade and the Norges Bank. Popular carry trade NOK/SEK has seen downside in excess of a percent today due to the above. NOK/SEK slipped below par, to mark a session low of 0.9882.

Central Banks

• ECB's Nagel said all policy options remain on the table for July while adding that the ECB is prepared to respond if required.
• ECB's Makhlouf said we need to get ahead of inflation and are seeing more broad-based inflation impact. It would be a mistake for us to do nothing.
• ECB's Kocher said the war's impact on price trends are increasingly clear and he does not expect inflation to match 2022 or 2023 levels. Will act decisively to ensure 2% mid-term target.
• ECB's Dolenc said the rate hike is just enough for now to follow the baseline, and they had a robust set of data to make a decision. Dolenc also stated that it is pretty obvious inflation will be higher and growth lower, while services inflation is stubborn and hard to fight.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are entirely in the green and currently hold towards highs. Strength, which has been facilitated by lower energy prices after US President Trump claimed that he had a deal with Iran, and that the signing of the MoU would probably happen in Europe. However, the Iranians pushed back on this claim. The bullish bias then extended after Iran-affiliated, Mehr News, reported the details of the US-Iran 14-point MoU. This spurred another bout of pressure in the energy complex, which in-turn weighed on global yields.
• USTs (+4+ ticks) gain, and hold at the upper end of a 109-19 to 109-29 range. Action which has been facilitated by the positive geopolitical mood music, but still remains the underperformer vs peers. That can potentially be explained by the ongoing hawkish repricing at the Fed, heading to the Bank’s policy announcement next week. Elsewhere, yields are lower across the curve with underperformance in the short-end/belly; the 10yr currently holds at 4.43%, marking the WTD low. Should the geopolitical environment materially improve in the coming days, and the Strait entirely opens up, the 10yr could dip its head back towards support levels at 4.33% and then 4.25%. Do note that the 10yr resided below the 4.00% mark before the Iran conflict started.
• Bunds (+43 ticks) and Gilts (+87 ticks) both follow the bullish bias, with the latter outperforming given its relatively high dependence on external energy and poor domestic growth data. For EGBs, there have been a number of ECB speakers this morning following the Bank’s decision to hike rates on Thursday. Most have echoed the comments made by President Lagarde at her presser; focus has been on a Bloomberg report, which suggested that some ECB members see another hike as soon as July.
• For UK paper, the GDP release this morning indicated that the UK economy shrank by 0.1% in April, amidst the Iranian war. This will only exacerbate growth woes for some policymakers at the BoE, where policymakers are set to meet next week, expected to keep rates on hold.

Commodities

• On Thursday, US President Trump said a deal could be signed with Iran as soon as this weekend in Europe, following an earlier post on Truth Social that the US was going to strike Iran hard for the third straight day and then later pulling back the threat. Trump said VP Vance would attend if the deal materialises and added that the Iranian Supreme Leader had agreed to a deal. The deal was described as a very strong MoU which would restart shipping in the Strait and include commitments from Tehran to not pursue a nuclear weapon.
• Markets were awaiting any kind of confirmation from Iranian media that the MoU has been received. Mehr News reported the 14-point MoU includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil sanctions, and releasing frozen Iranian funds. (Full 14 points on the headline feed) Awaiting official commentary from the Iranian government on the MoU.
• Crude futures were already on the softer side before the Mehr news report, but it has given an additional catalyst for further downside. WTI Jul'26 slides below a key support range of USD 84.46-85.95/bbl, currently trading at the bottom of USD 83.20-86.98/bbl range. For Brent Aug'26, the benchmark trades slips below the USD 86/bbl handle (USD 85.80-89.72/bbl).
• Precious metals trade in narrow ranges after rebounding in excess of 3% in Thursday's session. Spot gold oscillates in a USD 4170-4247/oz range. Given the positive news of a potential US-Iran deal, worries of higher inflation/rates due to energy prices may temper and result in some unwinding of the hawkish rate bets by the Fed.
• 3M LME Copper bids higher, currently trading in a USD 13.6k-13.72k/t range, amid the positive tone. The red metal gapped higher alongside gains in Asia-Pac equities and held amid constructive reporting.
• Venezuela has signed five agreements with Shell (SHEL LN) to advance oil and gas projects, which includes the Co.'s participation in the 5tln cubic-feet Loran offshore gas field.
• JPMorgan still expects aluminium to reach USD 4k/t, now forecasting an average price of USD 3750/t in H2'26.

US Event calendar

• 10:00 am: Jun P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 46, prior 44.8

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy birthday to me. I’m taking most of today off to catch up with an old close friend I now see far less than I should, largely due to work commitments and my ongoing role as an on-demand Uber driver for my children. The plan involves a long local hike and a long non boozy lunch. Yes, my wife and I are actually going to spend some time together. Hopefully we won't run out of things to talk about within the first few hundred yards.

There’s no shortage of topics to discuss in the financial world right now, as sentiment and newsflow around tech and the Iran war continue to swing 180 degrees at short notice. Indeed, the past 24 hours has seen a sharp reversal in the trajectory of the US–Iran conflict, as mounting hopes of a deal have seen Brent crude fall -1.62% overnight, leaving it on track for a 3-month low of $88.80/bbl. So that’s led to a huge rally across bonds and equities, as lower oil prices have eased fears about a prolonged stagflationary shock.

The picture had looked very different this time yesterday, as we woke up to a second day of US strikes on Iran. Moreover, Trump went onto say that that the US would continue to hit Iran for a third day, and take control of Kharg island and other oil infrastructure. But a few hours later, after European markets had closed, that was suddenly reversed. In a post Trump said that discussions with Iran “have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved”, and that he was cancelling “the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. The post also said that “final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved”, and that a time and place for the signing would be “announced shortly”. Later on, Trump followed this up, saying the US had “made a great settlement of the war with Iran”, and that the deal could be signed over the weekend in Europe, and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened to shipping once an agreement is signed.

The market reaction to the news was swift, with Brent crude down -2.92% yesterday to $90.38/bbl, and that’s been followed up by an overnight decline of -1.75% to $88.80/bbl. Moreover, the entire oil futures curve moved lower, with the 6-month Brent future down to $83.28/bbl this morning, which would be its lowest closing level since April. And in turn, we’ve seen a huge wave of optimism in Asian equities this morning, with strong gains for the Nikkei (+3.37%), the KOSPI (+8.32%), the Hang Seng (+2.02%), the CSI 300 (+1.53%) and the Shanghai Comp (+1.56%).

With oil prices coming down sharply, alongside hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, that’s seen investors price out the chance of rapid rate hikes this year. Indeed, as we go to press, markets are now pricing in just a 77% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, having been fully priced in earlier this week. In fact, it’s not until the March 2027 meeting that a hike is fully priced in. So that dovish repricing helped US Treasuries to surge, with the 2yr yield (-8.1bps) down to 4.06% by the close, whilst the 10yr yield (-9.1bps) fell to 4.46%.

For equities there was also a huge surge, as the prospect of lower inflation and fewer rate hikes led to growing optimism on the near-term outlook. So the S&P 500 (+1.75%) posted its biggest jump in the last two months, whilst futures (+0.10%) are pointing to further gains today. And there was a huge surge for some of the recent laggards, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.91%, the NASDAQ up +2.54%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 up +3.02%. Metals also rallied, with copper up +2.08%, gold up +3.48%, whilst silver (+6.23%) once again traded with a higher beta.

Aside from the Middle East news, the big story yesterday was the first ECB rate hike since 2023, with a 25bp move that lifted their deposit rate to 2.25%. They became the biggest central bank yet to hike after the Middle East energy shock, joining others like Australia and Norway who’d already hiked. Moreover, there were some hawkish undertones, as Lagarde described the hike as "completely warranted and justified”, even in the ECB’s milder scenario, and noted how the inflation shock was becoming broader in nature. Indeed, the ECB lifted their inflation projections, and now expect headline inflation to average 3.0% in 2026 (prev. +2.6%) with core inflation projected to stay above 2% all the way to 2028 (+2.2%).  

Interestingly, we had a little conflict in the usual sources stories that came out after, although that seemed to be more in the headline framing than the details. So Bloomberg’s headline suggested that ECB officials weren’t ruling out another hike as soon as the next meeting in July, but a Reuters story said that the ECB felt a material surge in oil prices was necessary to justify a July hike. Nevertheless, both suggested that both a hold and a hike were possible, and unsurprisingly, Lagarde avoided being drawn on the timing of further hikes. Our own European economists are sticking to their view of one more rate hike to 2.50% in September (see their reaction note here Focus Europe: ECB Reaction: A robust hike) with their economic forecasts being softer than the ECB's. Interestingly they say that another hike to 2.75% is more likely than stopping here at 2.25%.

Given that the hike was fully priced in already, European bonds still put in a decent performance with yields on 10yr bunds (-4.4bps), OATs (-4.8bps) and BTPs (-5.3bps) all retracing the previous day’s losses. Moreover, investors also priced in a more dovish path for the ECB over the months ahead. Equities put in a strong performance too, even before the news of a potential US-Iran deal, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.54%) ending a run of 4 consecutive declines, alongside gains for the FTSE 100 (+0.48%), CAC 40 (+0.48%) and the DAX (+0.06%).

Another big story, prior to the Iran news, was Oracle earnings. That was out after Wednesday’s close, but yesterday their share price fell -8.53% in response, as their quarterly capex spend was much higher than forecast. So that renewed investor concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending. For reference, Oracle has become the largest non-bank issuer in the Bloomberg USD Investment Grade index over the last year, and has now signaled another $20bn of debt issuance over the next 4 quarters. Meanwhile, Oracle is now down -26.4% since its intra-day peak on June 1st, after being up +31.0% in the 3 business days before it.

Otherwise, the main US story was that PPI inflation ran hotter than expected in May, with headline PPI up +1.1% on the month (vs. +0.7% expected). However, there was a downward revision of three-tenths to the April number, and the PPI measure excluding food and energy was only at +0.4% (vs. +0.5% expected). Taken together, this week's CPI and PPI have led our US economists to increase their May core PCE forecast to 0.37%, a few basis points higher than before the two releases due to the subcomponent breakdowns. But even though inflation was running hot, the labour market data actually came in on the weaker side, with the weekly initial jobless claims up to 229k in the week ending June 6 (vs. 220k expected), which is their highest in 4 months.

Finally, one interesting story bubbling under the surface is the fear of one of the strongest El Niño’s on record emerging around the Pacific equator. That’s where unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific cause the Pacific jet stream to move south, which creates changes in weather patterns and ecosystems. But unfortunately, El Niño events are also correlated with a higher frequency of natural disasters, such as flooding, so usually lead to concern about things like food harvests and higher prices. Those concerns continued yesterday, as the US Climate Prediction Center published a report, saying that the probability of a strong El Niño is over 65% for the end of this year and a very strong one at nearly 40%.

Looking at the day ahead now, the main data releases will be the US University of Michigan survey for June, the UK’s monthly GDP for April, and Canada’s Q1 capacity utilisation rate. We’ll also hear the ECB’s Kocher and Nagel speak.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 08:23

"Resetting Business": Xbox Layoffs Loom As New CEO Supercharges Overhaul

Microsoft's Xbox gaming division is preparing for a major round of job cuts at the end of the month as new Xbox CEO Asha Sharma moves to "reset" the unit amid a confluence of negative and worsening pressures, including shrinking revenue, soft hardware sales, plateauing Game Pass momentum, and what management now describes as an ongoing "hardware component crisis."

Bloomberg first reported that Microsoft will announce an upcoming round of layoffs after the company's fiscal year ends on June 30. The report was based on sources familiar with the upcoming restructuring plan, though it did not mention whether AI adoption and efficiency gains are driving the cuts.

In a memo to staff, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma and Matt Booty said the gaming division's first 100 days under new leadership showed early signs of progress.

"Now we start the next 100 days. It is important to have both optimism and realism as we work to reset the business," the executives wrote in the memo titled "Next 100 Days: XBOX Reset."

They continued, "Excluding Activision Blizzard King, over the past five years, we have spent over $20 billion on ongoing investments in our content, platform and hardware subsidy, but our annual revenue has declined nearly half a billion during that time. Going forward, this cannot continue."

The memo outlined Xbox's harsh realities it must navigate to achieve a turnaround strategy:

1. Over 1 billion players choose to play XBOX and our games each year, for a total of 72 billion hours across Console, PC, Mobile, and Streaming (excluding much of China and a few other properties). Our franchises are also among the largest and most beloved globally and are now breaking records in TV and film. Going forward, our competition is attention. There are more great games, TV series, franchises, creators, content formats, apps, etc., than ever before

2. We will end this fiscal year at about a 3% accountability margin, down year-over-year. Excluding Activision Blizzard King, over the past five years, we have spent over $20 billion on ongoing investments in our content, platform, and hardware subsidy, but our annual revenue has declined nearly half a billion during that time. Going forward, this cannot continue.

3. We are in a hardware component crisis. When I joined as CEO in February, the price we paid for console storage components was over 2x as high as we paid last fall. These costs have since doubled again. And as we plan for the 2027 holiday season, we expect another significant increase, taking us over 5x the prices we paid only two years earlier. Memory costs have followed a broadly similar trajectory. While the entire industry is facing a components crisis, we believe we have been impacted more greatly than many of our peers due to the choices we made over the last half decade. We are currently unable to make as many consoles as players want to buy, and we need a new business model and partnerships for hardware as we remain committed to Helix.

4. We expanded our studio system when we needed a pipeline of content to meet multiple strategies across subscription, streaming, and devices. In the process, we have found ourselves over extended as we executed on changing strategies in a landscape of more readily available content. We are the fortunate stewards of industry-defining franchises that have enormous potential and player demand, but we have not adequately funded them to compete and win. At the same time, as we saw this past weekend at Showcase, a reliable pipeline of first- and third-party exclusives and new IP are critical to our success. We need to reassess the balance between these and our investment priorities for the next 5 years.

5. Our current platform infrastructure is not built for the battle ahead. Our systems are overly complex, spanning hundreds of dependencies, which hinders our ability to move fast. We've become too reliant on vendors to operate our systems and must become more self-reliant as an engineering culture to build for the future. We must increase the value we ship to players while decreasing the time it takes to do so. Going forward, we'll evolve and rebuild our stack and look at capabilities across all of XBOX and potential M&A to help us win in hardware, PC, mobile, and streaming.

In February, the CEO told the audience at the Bloomberg Tech conference that she planned on "resetting the business," which was "not in a healthy spot."

How it started vs how it’s going | #XBOXShowcase pic.twitter.com/ntww9Pk0GN

— XBOX (@XBOX) June 7, 2026

Xbox and the entire gaming industry have faced mounting headwinds.

TD Securities analyst Doug Creutz pointed out Thursday that mobile gaming remains strong, but console gaming has lost momentum this year:

Industry View: Mobile Had a Really Strong Q1; Tempering Console Expectations

We believe U.S. mobile game spending grew +14% y/y in Q1, comfortably above our expectations, based on reported results at public companies. Note that our model does at least attempt to incorporate the impact of what are rapidly growing DTC businesses across the industry. We expect +10% y/y growth in U.S. mobile game spending for 2026. On the other hand, we previously reduced our 2026 console global software/services spending estimate from +7% y/y to +1% y/y based on (1) the impact of the recent price cut to Xbox Game Pass and (2) the apparent lack of a tentpole title in Nintendo's 2026 slate.

Xbox reaches more than 1 billion players annually across console, PC, mobile, and streaming, but can't generate profits? It may be time for AI and automation to streamline the gaming unit, which likely means layoffs are imminent.

The gaming industry is waiting for the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year to rekindle demand.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 06:55