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USPS Proposes Halting Mail Ballot Delivery To States That Refuse Voter Roll Verification

Via American Greatness,

The US Postal Service (USPS) has proposed a new rule requiring states to share voter information related to mail-in and absentee voting. The proposal follows a March executive order from Trump aimed at tightening regulations governing mail-in voting in federal elections.

Trump has made election integrity a central focus of his second administration, issuing executive orders designed to require proof of citizenship for voters and combat mail-in voting fraud. The administration has argued that stronger verification measures are necessary to restore confidence in elections and safeguard the voting process.

Several of those initiatives have faced legal challenges. Courts have blocked certain provisions, including proof-of-citizenship requirements, while appeals remain pending. Democratic-led states have also filed lawsuits challenging the administration’s mail-in voting policies.

As litigation continues, the Postal Service has moved forward with a proposal directing states and the USPS to coordinate on identifying eligible mail-in and absentee voters.

Under the proposed rule, states would submit lists of voters requesting mail-in ballots, along with personalized barcodes assigned to each ballot.

The Postal Service would then return a finalized “Mail-In and Absentee Participation List” to each state’s chief election official. The list would contain the names of approved voters and the corresponding ballot barcodes associated with each voter.

Under the proposal, only voters included on the final participation list would be eligible to receive mail-in or absentee ballots.

The USPS said the new system would help improve transparency and provide election officials and law enforcement with additional tools to verify election procedures.

“This provision will help determine adherence to federal law and facilitate law enforcement efforts,” the proposal states.

“For example, the provided lists will evidence how many ballots have been mailed, and allow law enforcement officials to compare the total number of mailed ballots to the total number of received ballots to detect potential issues meriting further investigation.”

Election integrity supporters argue that the process would create a clearer chain of custody for mailed ballots and help identify irregularities that might otherwise go undetected.

The Postal Service issued the proposal May 29, one day after Trump-appointed US District Judge Carl J. Nichols denied a request from Democratic plaintiffs seeking to block the administration’s mail-in voting executive order.

Nichols ruled that the challengers failed to sufficiently demonstrate that the order would cause “imminent and irreparable harm.”

The plaintiffs have appealed that decision, and the Postal Service proposal remains subject to ongoing legal uncertainty while the broader litigation proceeds.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 11:00

After SpaceX IPO, Jefferies Lays Out Five Takeaways For Space Boom Into 2030s

Friday’s SpaceX IPO will be a defining moment not only for capital markets but also for the booming space industry and Elon Musk’s broader industrial empire, which has catapulted America to the lead in the space race against Communist China and Russia.

Ahead of the four-times-oversubscribed SpaceX IPO, we explained to readers how to profit from the incoming data center boom in low-Earth orbit and broke down the mechanics of the IPO in an easy-to-understand format.

Next, we want to give readers the opportunity to understand where the space industry is headed to position bullish bets, as this industry will likely have tailwinds for years to come. It's all about following the money.

We are leaning on Jefferies analyst Aniket Shah’s Wednesday report, which provided a roadmap for understanding the space industry through five easy takeaways.

1. The global space economy has reached $600bn, potentially tripling to $1.8trn by 2035. Commercial activity accounts for 80% and spans satellite TV, broadband, GPS infrastructure, and satellite manufacturing. The remaining 20% is government spending. Within the investable "backbone" of physical infrastructure, state-sponsored spending is projected to grow faster than commercial, rising from $125bn to $320bn (+256%) vs $205bn to $435bn (+212%) for commercial over the next decade. Defense is the fastest-growing category within the space economy.

2. The US accounts for 60% of global government spending on space; China ranks second. US government space spending is ~$80bn, more than the rest of the world combined. China spends ~ $20bn, but this figure is not PPP-adjusted, meaning its effective spending power is materially closer to the US than the nominal gap implies. Japan is a notable third player, having designated space as one of Prime Minister Takeshi's 17 strategic sectors (see here & here). China has similarly identified space as a strategic area in its 15th Five-Year Plan (see here & here).

3. Space Force budget surged 40% in one year, fueled by the Golden Dome program. Golden Dome is a top strategic priority driving the budget surge. Golden Dome is a multi-layered missile defense initiative that integrates space-based sensors, interceptors, and AI-enabled command and control to address ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missile threats. Space Force now commands ~$40bn and the Missile Defense Agency ~$10bn, totaling ~$50bn, far exceeding NASA's budget ($24.4bn).

4. SpaceX has captured a structural share of federal space dollars. It is NASA's largest commercial contractor and plays a critical role across launch services, communications, IT, and the broader data layer of the space architecture. The US government has effectively outsourced significant space activity to SpaceX, creating an inextricable linkage between federal spending priorities and the company's business.

5. US vs China: Moon Race 2.0 is accelerating. The rivalry plays out across three dimensions: lunar programs, global coalitions, and codified policies.

• Lunar programs: The US targets a crewed lunar landing by 2028 and a lunar outpost by 2030; China targets a crewed landing by 2030 and an outpost by 2035.
• Global coalitions: The US-led Artemis Accords have 67 signatories, while the China-Russia International Lunar Research Station coalition has <20.
• Codified policies: President Trump has issued executive orders on Iron Dome for America, commercial space competition, and ensuring US space superiority. China's 15th Five-Year Plan also prioritizes space competitiveness.

Now, let's visualize where the space industry is headed into the 2030s:

The global space economy has reached $600bn

The space economy is set to triple to $1.8trn by 2035

The US accounts for 60% of global space spending

National defense is reshaping the US space economy

Space Force budget surges 40%, fueled by Golden Dome

SpaceX has captured a structural share of federal space dollars

US vs China: Moon Race 2.0 is accelerating

Professional subscribers can read more on the space industry here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 10:40

ActBlue CEO Pleads The Fifth During House Panel Hearing

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

ActBlue CEO Regina Wallace-Jones invoked the Fifth Amendment on Wednesday before the House Administration Committee, surrounding reports that she may have misled Congress about how the platform vets foreign donations.

The U.S. Capitol building on June 9, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Wallace-Jones had originally agreed to testify voluntarily before Congress concerning ActBlue's vetting process for foreign contributions to domestic candidates. But her attorneys requested a congressional subpoena on Monday, ahead of her June 10 testimony, according to committee lawmakers.

The House asked Wallace-Jones to testify after a recent New York Times report included memos from Covington & Burling, a law firm that worked for ActBlue, warning that she may have misled Congress about the process for screening overseas donations.

ActBlue is the dominant Democratic fundraising platform. In 2025 alone, the platform reported raising almost $1.8 billion from 52 million contributions, and Q4 that year marked the single-largest off-cycle quarter in ActBlue history.

Under federal election law, foreign nationals or those who are not permanent residents are forbidden to donate directly to federal candidates or political action committees.

Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) said only Americans should decide their elections during the hearing titled, "Preventing Fraudulent Donations: Transparency, Verification, and Accountability."

🚨 HOLY SMOKES. ActBlue just PLED THE 5TH and REFUSED to answer about getting foreign donations infiltrating US politics on behalf of Democrats

She wouldn't even refute getting RUSSIAN money! 🤯

ActBlue is a FRAUD group. Shut it down!

REP. JIM JORDAN: Your board chairman said… pic.twitter.com/iYfda3A6so

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) June 10, 2026

"Ms. Wallace-Jones is here today because there's a significant concern that ActBlue may have allowed foreign donations on their platform, lied to Congress, and withheld responsive documents from a congressional subpoena," Steil said. "All three of those actions are illegal."

Steil said Wallace-Jones provided a 2023 letter to Congress stating that ActBlue prevents foreign donations by requiring donors with a foreign address to provide U.S. passport information. If a contribution appears to be from a foreign address, ActBlue contacts the donor to request U.S. passport information. The platform would then refund the contribution if ActBlue was unable to contact the donor.

"The New York Times reported that ActBlue's outside counsel determined those three steps are not always followed," Steil said.

Surrounded by attorneys, Wallace-Jones did not answer any questions posed during the hearing, citing the "attorney-client privilege and my Fifth Amendment rights under the Constitution."

Wallace-Jones wrote an opinion piece in The Washington Post that appeared on the day of her hearing, saying she would invoke her Fifth Amendment "rights against self-incrimination."

"This is a proceeding designed to build an illegitimate criminal case against us. I cannot and will not let my words be misused in that way," she opined.

Democrats on the committee called the hearing political theater and questioned why the Republican fundraising platform, WinRed, wasn't receiving equal scrutiny from Republicans.

"We're here because Republicans want to talk about ActBlue, not because they're serious about strengthening campaign finance laws or actually strengthening the abuse of fraud in this country," said Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), ranking member of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

Administrative Committee ranking member Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) said Republicans are ignoring alleged problems with WinRed. He accused the platform of victimizing elderly Americans.

Morelle also requested a subpoena for Republican Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton, who, as Texas attorney general, sued ActBlue in state court on April 20. The lawsuit alleged that the platform misleads consumers by illegally accepting fraudulent foreign donations for federal and state candidates.

ActBlue filed a countersuit on May 1 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts, seeking to block Paxton's lawsuit. Attorneys for the platform asked a federal judge to declare Paxton's ongoing ActBlue investigation and lawsuit unconstitutional, alleging violations of the First and Fourteenth Amendments.

ActBlue accused Paxton of escalating his investigation after donations for James Talarico, his Democratic opponent in the Texas Senate race, surged.

Paxton responded on the day the suit was filed, saying in an X post that ActBlue was "trying to take [him] down."

U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) speaks at a hearing with the House Administration subcommittee on Elections in Washington on June 24, 2021. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 10:20

Bessent Pulls Trigger On Using Frozen Funds To Reimburse Gulf Allies: 'Iran Will Pay'

US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced on X Thursday morning that Washington is moving forward on a plan to compensate America's Gulf regional allies for damage sustained during Iranian counterattacks on their energy and civic infrastructure.

He made clear that any damage to Gulf allies would be paid for with frozen Iranian funds, which Tehran leadership has long blasted as blatant theft.

According to Bessent's latest announcement: "The Iranian regime will lose the zero-sum game it is playing." The Treasury Secretary listed out the following new policy and plan:

• Any damage it inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian Accounts.
• Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.
• Every attack Iran launches will only deepen the economic and financial consequences it faces.

via Reuters

Interestingly, there is implicit here a possible acknowledgement that US forces won't be able to immediately be able to stop Iran from enacting its toll collection protocol, which it has hinted is being done in coordination - or at least with an 'understanding' - from Oman, which itself has come under pressure from the Trump administration of late.

Over eighty oil, gas, and vital infrastructure facilities across the Gulf have been hit - with most of the attacks having occurred in March and April - with one recent report estimating up to $58 billion in damage. Iran has sought to justify these attacks as 'retaliation' for these Gulf countries hosting American bases during the US unprovoked assault on the Islamic Republic.

An unnamed US official had previously told ABC's Senior White House correspondent Selina Wang last weekend: "Treasury will utilize all tools available to allow Iranian assets to be made available to our Gulf allies to support rebuilding and repairs for any future damage caused by Iran."

"The Secretary has also directed his team to assess conditions amongst our Gulf allies and request comprehensive estimates of the costs associated with repairing damage Iran has inflicted since the start of the conflict," the source had added.

Also as part of that earlier reporting, it was revealed:

The Iranian assets could include frozen assets and ships the U.S. has seized. The administration is reaching out to Gulf allies right now and asking for their evaluation.

This is only likely to further derail efforts to get Tehran and Washington back to the negotiating table. Already the US has balked at Iran's own insistent it be given reparations for damage done.

Iran is meanwhile still demanding that its billions in funds long frozen by Washington be given back as part of a deal. The Trump administration has so far rejected this, at least in terms of its public-facing position.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 10:00

War And Piece

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Sorry, Bank of Canada (rates held at 2.25%), Chinese CPI and PPI (1.2% and 3.9% y-o-y headline) US CPI (0.5% m-o-m and 4.2% y-o-y headline, 0.2% and 2.9% core), and the ECB today: you all matter but are just pieces of the global picture one now needs to finish: the war vs. Iran.

Changing the recent pattern, President Trump said he would strike Iran again today and did. At time of writing, nearly 50 Tomahawk missiles had been fired alongside airstrikes against radar and drone installations, with a disputed report that a petrochemicals plant was also hit. Even by the standards of the ‘peacefire’ --which, as I’d argued yesterday morning, Iran’s leadership then agreed no longer suits them-- this is a major escalation.

However, the US is still holding back compared to what it can do militarily, and Israel is sitting on its hands. Notably, Trump told Fox News he has been in direct contact with senior Iranian leadership, a new development, and they had asked him to stop bombing: to which he claims he told them to sign the deal on the table, or on Thursday evening he will “Bomb the s**t out of them.” In other words, hits against infrastructure, energy, and nuclear sites, can’t be ruled out.

The immediate Iranian response has been to declare Hormuz entirely closed to all ships. However, despite the fact that Iran was prepared for these US strikes there have, as yet, been no successful counterstrikes against US bases in the Middle East or against GCC energy and water infrastructure. Will this happen with a lag? If not is Iran unable to do so, or just unwilling to? Equally, will Iran act with the Houthis to close the Bab-el-Mandeb and Red Sea, making this energy crisis far worse?

These are staggeringly important geopolitical questions on which global markets, and the BoC and Chinese and US inflation, will ultimately pivot.

So far, the market reaction has been relatively mild – oil only up around $2. Perhaps part of that is down to another piece of the Iran puzzle that has befuddled energy experts and visitors from outside the field – what is happening in terms of oil flows from Hormuz.

Trump had yesterday announced the US is taking “millions of barrels of oil” from Iran, causing the usual consternation. A breakdown of what he meant comes from shipping maven @mercoglianos, who argues the US secretly resumed Project Freedom to escort ships through Hormuz using autonomous vehicles, aircraft, and drones to escort ships through the southern Strait near Oman. Very Large Crude Carriers are exiting the Gulf, conducting ship-to-ship transfers to smaller tankers near Oman, then returning to pick up more oil. In that regard, oil can flow even as the number of ships stuck in the Gulf appears unchanged. War risk insurance, potentially provided by the US Development Finance Corporation, could be covering these few ships making the transits. Yet Iran has been targeting them and the US responding with airstrikes: the Apache helicopter just shot down, triggering a new US attack, was likely part of this operation.

Of course, what may have been happening invisibly, despite 24/7 market coverage, can’t compensate for normal Gulf flows, which is why the plunge in the US and Japan’s SPR and a huge drop in China’s oil imports --none of which are sustainable-- are doing the heavy lifting to keep oil below $100. That dynamic always pointed to escalation: will it be military now, via the US; with others later as more energy panic kicks in; or via more backchannel diplomacy from China? 

Regardless, it’s hard to make economic or central bank forecasts without one for the Iran War, as the FT says airlines are drawing up cuts for an 'ugly' winter’ due to stubbornly high jet fuel prices; Reuters notes global container shipping rates are soaring and “Fuel analysts and maritime experts warn it could take around a year for bunker fuel supplies to return to normal even if Trump is able to quickly clinch an Iran deal”; and the UK Telegraph argues farmers may have to stop planting crops without government support.

But geopolitics and geoeconomics are to the fore everywhere and it’s not only energy and petrochemicals being squeezed.

In the Middle East, Turkey’s President Erdogan claimed Israel’s strikes on Lebanon and Syria threaten it and “its aggression must be stopped”, after talking about the liberation of Jerusalem. Israel’s diplomatic response was equally undiplomatic; Saudi Arabia resumed imports from Lebanon after a five-year hiatus; and a Saudi-Turkey rail link may be completed within three years.

In the Americas, Trump suggested he may not renew the USMCA trade deal with Mexico and Canada; and US Secretary of War Hegseth warned Cuba that any arms procurement by it seen as threatening the US could invite a confrontation - we are talking about 1956 at the moment, so why not 1962 too?

In Europe, five capitals are reportedly calling to freeze voting rights for new EU members, radically changing the structure of the Union; Politico reports ‘French far-right firebrand’ Zemmour is embracing MAGA to try to pay political dividends at home ahead of the 2027 presidential election; and the South China Morning Post asks ‘As de-dollarisation trends persist, can the yuan take the euro’s place?’, meaning taking the #2 spot in global settlements from the single currency.

In Australia, the political scene continues to churn with talk of a ‘non-compete’ clause and voting preference deal between the centre-right Liberals and populist right One Nation that has suddenly soared in the polls.

In Asia, Taiwan fired US mobile missile launchers into the waters facing China for the first time as “a message of resolve”, according to the Wall Street Journal; the US has asked China to resume rare earth exports to Japan, which have been cut off, as Tokyo pivots to US tungsten scrap exports to fill that gap, and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s curbs on cobalt exports have sparked shortages for everyone, including China; Japan’s parliament passed a revised economic security law to support overseas projects (as Bloomberg asks ‘Who’s Afraid of ‘Japanese Neo-Militarism’? Nobody’ - that’s arguably not true; and BOJ Governor Ueda has been hospitalized and is expected to miss the June policy meeting. Get well soon and perhaps be can follow the Iran news from there.

Indeed, now back to whatever piece of the war you happen to be focusing on.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 09:40

Iran Threatens Elon Musk's Gulf-Area Starlink Ground Stations In Suspicious Timing Ahead Of SpaceX IPO

Summary:

• Iran Threatens Musk's Starlink Ground Bases In Gulf Area Ahead Of IPO  

• Massive SpaceX IPO Demand Coming From Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds

IranIntlbrk is the X handle for Iran International's breaking-news account and cites Tehran-aligned Fars News Agency, stating that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has placed the economic interests of Elon Musk in West Asia, including Arab countries and Israel, under consideration on a new target list.

IranIntlbrk continued:

1. Fars News Agency reported that this action is under consideration following claims by the IRGC-affiliated outlet that the U.S. and Israeli militaries' use of infrastructure managed by Elon Musk, including Starlink, has been proven.

2. A media outlet affiliated with the IRGC wrote that Starlink's ground stations in Israel, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, alongside SpaceX shareholders including the infrastructure of the two companies "Al-Fazabi" and "Exchange," are among the new targets of the Islamic Republic.

The IRGC's threat against Musk's Starlink ground stations (Starlink Gateways) across the region should come as no surprise. IRGC forces have already demonstrated a willingness to strike Gulf data centers, including the reported Shahed drone attacks on two AWS data centers in the UAE.

The timing of the IRGC's threat against Musk is notable. It comes one day ahead of the SpaceX IPO, suggesting Tehran is trying to remain relevant in the news cycle with another round of big-bad warnings aimed at U.S. tech giants, Gulf allies, and critical communications infrastructure.

Starlink Service Map

On Wednesday, we reported that massive demand for the SpaceX IPO was coming from Gulf sovereign wealth funds.

Also today, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on X, "The Iranian regime will lose the zero-sum game it is playing. Any damage it inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian accounts."

Massive SpaceX IPO Demand Coming From Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds 

One week ago, SpaceX kicked off its institutional roadshow, headlined by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who hosted a nationwide "live interactive discussion" with private wealth clients.

The latest signal of investor demand comes from the Gulf, where massive sovereign wealth funds are reportedly seeking allocations in the IPO ahead of its expected Friday debut, according to Bloomberg News.

The report says Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund and Kuwait Investment Authority have each placed orders for the IPO worth $1 billion to $5 billion, while the Qatar Investment Authority is also expected to make a significant commitment.

The report continued:

Entities based in the region are already prominent shareholders in Elon Musk's rocket, satellite and AI firm, and many are sitting on large paper gains based on the billionaire's targeted valuation of $1.8 trillion, the people said. It wasn't immediately clear how much of the planned outlay is intended to prevent dilution of existing stakes after SpaceX's listing.

The interest from the Gulf is part of a broader rush into the deal from global institutional investors, whose orders have exceeded the number of shares on offer. Some have bid for $10 billion or more of stock, Bloomberg News has reported, though the eventual allocations might be smaller.

In a separate report, Reuters says the IPO is three-and-a-half to four times oversubscribed, highlighting massive institutional demand for what is shaping up to be the largest listing on record and a defining moment for the space economy.

Elon Musk has joined several Zoom meetings with potential investors, while SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen were expected to meet with roughly 300 institutional investors at a Morgan Stanley lunch in Manhattan.

Goldman Sachs was selected as the lead bank for the IPO, alongside Morgan Stanley. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup are also among the 23 banks working on the deal, offering a staggering $75 billion by selling about 555.6 million shares. The planned IPO price is about $135 per share.

Why SpaceX's IPO Is drawing record investor demand...

We offered readers a complete deep dive into the mechanics of the SpaceX offering and how to trade the world's biggest IPO (read the report). SpaceX's underwriters have shut off investor access to the offering in China and Hong Kong, primarily due to regulatory and compliance concerns.

However, there is a concerted effort by unhinged leftist lawmakers (such as Elizabeth Warren) and left-wing pension funds to delay or deny the SpaceX IPO, mainly for political brownie points. They appear to view the sudden new wealth generated for Elon Musk (and his employees and investors) as absolutely horrifying...

NEW: Elizabeth Warren is calling for the SEC to delay the mega SpaceX IPO.

Warren cites concerns about "questionable valuation," governance structure & mandatory arbitration pic.twitter.com/4mQqzTtYRs

— Matt Egan (@MattEganCNN) June 10, 2026

... given that Musk is pro-humanity and seeks to liberate the world's minds from toxic progressive causes.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 09:26

AI Price Wars Begin: OpenAI Considers "Drastic Price Cuts" In Pursuit Of Anthropic Customers

Earlier today, in a report discussing how "AI bills are out of control", JPMorgan tech guru and TMT salesman, Mark Schilsky wrote that "most of my high level investor discussions focus on one major topic: when will the party end? Put another way, tech investors have made so much money in Semis so quickly that they are looking for potential warning signs that the music is about to stop. Predicting such an end is incredibly difficult. As such, investors are searching for forward-looking indicators that might suggest the AI party is nearing a peak." 

Here, the JPM trader highlighted perhaps the clearest indicator that the music was about to stop: "A slowdown in the growth of the annualized run-rate revenues of the major AI labs. If there is any sort of second derivative ‘kink’ in their growth algorithms, that could portend a future problem for the AI trade."

In response to this, we pointed to just such a "slowdown in the run-rate revenues", when we showed that the Silicon Data token price index is down for 7 straight days to a level last seen in mid-January, or long before the current agentic craze started. Almost as if it knew something... 

Source

Turns out it did: late on Wednesday, with futures surging and Korean stocks erasing a nearly 5% drop and turning green, and euphoria generally back front and center, the WSJ may have burst the AI bubble when it reported that - contrary to conventional wisdom that token prices will magically go to infinity - OpenAI, which has been badly lagging both the revenue and IPO race with Anthropic in recent months - was considering "drastically lowering the prices it charges users" in a panic scramble to regain market share and win back customers from archrival Anthropic.

And so, at a time when there is suddenly a mass realization that token prices had been soared in recent weeks, a wake-up call which JPM lovingly described as follows: "investors have been discussing the possibility that much of the token spend that corporate America is currently incurring is ‘wasted’. Anecdotes from companies like UBER aren’t helping this narrative", OpenAI is weighing significant cuts to what it charges for tokens. Hilariously, the move would be in anticipation of similar cuts the company expects at Anthropic, which is trying to double how much it charges for its latest model, Fable, which provides at best a very modest modest improvement in performance over Opus 4.8.

In short, we now have a classical deflationary race to the bottom, precisely the opposite of what the profit-strapped industry desperately needs to grow into its gargantuan balance sheets (and massive SPVs); Instead, the AI world is about to get hit with a collapse in both revenues and profit margins, while cash burn goes into full-on incinerator mode.

Warning that "business executives have begun to balk at the high prices for AI usage", the WSJ writes that OpenAI CEO Altman said at a recent event that costs had become “a huge issue.”

“I think we’ll have a lot of ways we can help people get more value for less spend,” he said.

In other words, LLMs tried to push up token prices to and beyond their breaking point... and succeeded.

And now it's time for the brutal drop: a drastic price war will erode the profit margins of both companies, which already lose billions of dollars because of the enormous cost for computing resources needed to run AI systems. 

Altman's decision to start a price war was prompted by OpenAI's attempt to catch up with its younger rival in the race to win enterprise customers that are paying large amounts of money for AI tools that can improve workplace productivity. Anthropic’s revenue recently surged
"after its coding tool Claude Code went viral among software engineers, and the five-year-old startup surpassed OpenAI’s valuation for the first time."

Or at least that's the WSJ version of events. In reality what happened is that Anthropic quietly annualized the one-time bumper revenue from Feb-May during the agentic splurge when nobody had any idea what they were paying, to come up with the ludicrous $47BN ARR, which they then actively paraded ahead of their IPO. But let's see what Anthropic's ARR is next month will be after clients finally check their token bills.

Sure enough, as we have been writing repeatedly in recent weeks, "some corporations poured so much money into Anthropic’s products that their leaders are now seeking to rein in spending. Earlier this year, an Uber executive said the company had maxed out its 2026 budget for agentic, or autonomous, AI use, and another company leader said last month that it was difficult to link AI coding productivity improvements to new customer features."

In other words, yet again the age-old question of whether and when AI will have a positive ROI rears its ugly head, and the answer is not any time soon... if ever. 

Such comments from many executives have triggered a broader debate within Silicon Valley about so-called “tokenmaxxing,” or the practice of using as many tokens as possible to boost productivity, including in ways that don’t generate returns on investment. That may have worked 6 months ago when LLMs were giving out compute for free to capture market share, but it doesn't work now that all the major AI companies are suddenly charging an arm and a kidney for an "agent" that responds to emails. 

As the WSJ concludes, "a price war would be an early test of the strength of both companies’ business models ahead of hotly anticipated public listings." OpenAI and Anthropic have captured the majority of revenue from new AI products, powering their rise. But an underlying risk that investors have long identified is the interchangeability of their products, and the ease with which customers can abandon one for the other. 

There is a bigger risk: as we noted one week ago, in the coming price war, neither OpenAI nor Anthropic will win. Instead it will be the country that has made reverse engineering Western technology and then selling it back to the west at 90% off, into an art form. Yes, China is about to enter the chatbot. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 09:15

US Initial Jobless Claims Jump To 4-Month-Highs

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time jumped to 229k last week (more than the 220k expected) and the highest in four months...

Source: Bloomberg

Pennsylvania, California, and Minnesota are the states seeing the largest rise in claims last week...

Continuing jobless claims also rose last week to 1.795mm Americans - highest in two months, but still relatively low in the context of the last two years...

Source: Bloomberg

The bottom line is that while initial jobless claims are rising, they remain low by historical standards and continue to run below year-ago levels.

Taken together with the May payrolls report, the data suggest that labor-market momentum remains firm.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 09:08

Bill Gates Tells Congress That Epstein Exploited Knowledge Of His Adultery

Microsoft founder and mega-billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates told Congress that Jeffrey Epstein exploited knowledge of Gates' multiple marital infidelities. Gates insists, however, that he committed no crimes and that the women he had adulterous sexual relations with were not associated with Epstein. Nonetheless, Gates' highlighting of Epstein's leveraging of Gates' sexual secrets fans suspicions that he sought to exploit similar secrets of other powerful people. 

"I never witnessed nor had any indication that Epstein was engaged in ongoing criminal conduct. I never went to his island, his ranch, or his Florida home. I have never victimized anyone. While he may have sought to foster a personal relationship, I was never interested in that and never reciprocated," Gates said in his opening remarks, which were published by the House Oversight committee. His testimony on Wednesday was given behind closed doors. 

Bill Gates with an unidentified but manifestly well-proportioned brunette number, in a photo from the Epstein files (House Oversight Committee)

Gates told legislators that Epstein became aware of Gates' serial philandering with three different women via a mutual acquaintance.  “Based on what has been released in the files, Epstein was working to use information about my infidelities—in addition to many lies that he layered on top—to pressure me to re-engage with him,” Gates said. “He was unsuccessful in this effort, but it shows some of the ways he tried to leverage his interactions with me to further his agenda.”

The three women were two Russians and another woman who's been described as a doctor, according to a leak of Gates testimony leaked to the Wall Street Journal. Committee Democrats held a press conference in which they said Gates acknowledged having been in the company of women that were abused by Epstein or his colleagues. It's expected that the Oversight Committee will release a transcript of Gates' give-and-take with lawmakers, which reportedly became combative at times. 

Documents from the Epstein files revealed that Epstein and Gates met on several occasions after Epstein's 2008 conviction. Gates told the House committee that he met Epstein through "people I trusted in my professional and philanthropic work," and that Epstein promoted his ability to give tax and estate guidance. Gates expressed regret for not vetting Epstein. "I recall being aware that Epstein had faced prior legal issues, but I did not fully understand the extent of the crimes he committed. I accepted the introduction without applying the scrutiny I should have," said Gates in his opening remarks. He said he stopped communicating or meeting with Epstein in December 2014, after concluding that Epstein "would never deliver on his promises" of reeling in donors for the Gates Foundation.  

In an undated photo, Gates appears with Jeffrey Epstein's pilot, Lawrence Visoski (House Oversight Committee Democrats via USA Today)

Tapping a tiny sliver of his net worth of more than $100 billion, Gates went to truly extraordinary lengths to prepare for his appearance on the Hill -- even assembling a mockup of the room in which he would testify. That replica was put together in Palm Desert, California, near his home, the Journal reported:

The replica included a podium on one side with wood paneled furniture flanked by gold curtains to display where lawmakers would traditionally sit. The other side featured a large wooden table for the person responding to questions, along with microphones and several cameras, to mimic the space in Washington. 

Defying President Trump's wishes, the Epstein files were forced into public view by House representatives led by Republican Thomas Massie and Democrat Ro Khanna. Massie used a "discharge petition" to force a vote on legislation requiring the release of the documents. Last month, Massie lost a primary challenge funded by pro-Israel billionaires whose involvement in the contest made it the most expensive primary race in US history.  

Thomas Massie says he will publicly read the names of Epstein clients before leaving Congress.

Massie also says there will be no high-level arrests while Todd Blanche and Kash Patel remain in power. pic.twitter.com/bICUDSvgPD

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 24, 2026

On a recent Meet the Press appearance, Massie said there are many files still hidden from the public, and he accused the acting US attorney general of violating the Epstein Files Transparency Act: "Todd Blanche is violating the law. There's still millions of files they haven't released." Massie promised to name more people whose identities are still redacted in the Epstein files. He also made an intriguing reference to Trump's First Lady: 

"I don't think it's possible to get to convictions with Todd Blanche at the top and with the FBI director, Kash Patel, at the top, because they have effectively both perjured themselves by saying there's nobody else in the files. Even Melania doesn't believe that. The First Lady knows that Jeffrey Epstein didn't act alone."

Massie has another seven months to help us understand exactly what that means -- a time during which he's empowered to spill Epstein-file secrets on the House floor with impunity, thanks to the Constitution's Speech and Debate Clause.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:45

Core Producer Prices Cooler Than Expected In April, Goods Costs Jump Most On Record

After yesterday's mixed bag from consumer prices (headline in-line but core cooler than expected and goods deflating), US Producer Prices were expected to keep accelerating higher (on a YoY basis) in May and they did... by more than expected.

Headline PPI rose 1.1% MoM in May (much hotter than the 0.7% MoM exp) but April's 1.4% MoM rise was revised down to +1.1% MoM. This left producer prices up 6.5% YoY (vs 6.4% exp and up from revised lower 5.7% in April)...

Source: Bloomberg

Services costs are the biggest contributor to the rise in the headline print...

And, echoing CPI, Core PPI (ex Food and Energy) printed cooler than expected at +0.4% MoM (+0.5% exp) with core PPI up 4.9% YoY (well below the 5.4% YoY exp and flat with April's revised lower 4.9%)...

Source: Bloomberg

PPI details:

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved up 2.8% in May, the largest increase since data were first calculated in December 2009. 80% of the broad-based advance can be traced to a 10.7-percent jump in prices for final demand energy. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods also rose, 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively.

• Product detail: Over half of the May advance in prices for final demand goods is attributable to a 23.4% increase in the index for gasoline. Prices for diesel fuel, jet fuel, plastic resins and materials, industrial chemicals, and natural gas liquids also rose. In contrast, the index for pork fell 10.1 percent. Prices for residential electric power and for sanitary paper products also declined.

Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved up 0.3% in May following a 0.7% advance in April. Leading the May increase, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing rose 0.7%. The index for final demand transportation and warehousing services moved up 2.6 percent. Conversely, margins for final demand trade services decreased 1.1 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers).

• Product detail: Over 40% of the May advance in the index for final demand services can be traced to a 4.8-percent rise in prices for portfolio management. The indexes for truck transportation of freight; securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; chemicals and allied products wholesaling; food wholesaling; and airline passenger services also increased. In contrast, margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling fell 1.9 percent. The indexes for fuels and lubricants retailing and for residential real estate loans (partial) also moved lower.

Trade Services dipped 1.1% MoM but Goods prices surged 2.8% MoM (driven by spiking Energy costs)...

This is the biggest jump in PPI Goods on record...

Commodity prices are accelerating...

But, arguably, the Energy component has peaked here...

And memory prices actually dipped according to PPI data...

The CPI-PPI spread is signaling increased pressure on corporate margins...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-hike expectations ticked higher on the report (but are stable around one fuill hike in 2026 for now).

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:40

ECB Hikes Rates For First Time Since 2023 (As Expected); Cuts Growth, Hikes Inflation Outlook

As fully expected, The ECB hiked its key rate by 25bps (for the first time since 2023) as the policymakers battle with the dilemma of economic weakness combined with rising inflation.

Obviously, raising rates to dampen inflation could further slow the economy, while easing rates to support growth increases the risk that higher inflation becomes persistent.

Clearly, Lagarde et al went with the former with its well-jawboned baseline having long been a hike in June with risks skewed toward a follow-up move in September (although a move in July can’t be ruled out).

“The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilizes at its 2% target in the medium term.

In line with this commitment, it today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.

The war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area.”

On the ECB's growth/inflation dilemma, they wrote:

“The outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth.

The full implications of the war for medium-term inflation and growth will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the scale of its indirect and second-round effects.”

The ECB’s new economic projections revise inflation upwards for 2026 and 2027 due to “a higher path for energy prices, which, to some extent, is expected to feed into food, goods and services inflation.”

New (higher) inflation forecasts suggest more short-term pain with 2027 and 2028 seeing price pressures ease :

• *ECB SEES 2026 INFLATION AT 3%; PRIOR FORECAST 2.6%
• *ECB SEES 2027 INFLATION AT 2.3%; PRIOR FORECAST 2%
• *ECB SEES 2028 INFLATION AT 2%; PRIOR FORECAST 2.1%

Growth is seen slowing in the same period due to the impact of the war on commodity prices, real incomes and consumer confidence.

New (lower) GDP forecasts follow a similar path with short-term weakness rotating into modest improvement in 2027 and 2028 (but not exactly thrilling growth still):

• *ECB SEES 2026 GDP GROWTH AT 0.8%; PRIOR FORECAST 0.9%
• *ECB SEES 2027 GDP GROWTH AT 1.2%; PRIOR FORECAST 1.3%
• *ECB SEES 2028 GDP GROWTH AT 1.5%; PRIOR FORECAST 1.4%

As Bloomberg's Alessandro Migliaccio notes, the new economic projections paint a grim picture.

The higher inflation will strengthen the ECB’s conviction that a rate increase was needed to keep to its mandate of price stability.

The slower growth however, may see some countries grumbling against too much tightening.

EUR was flat ahead of the ECB decision and the initial market reaction is muted.

The rate hike was fully priced in, and traders had already anticipated upward revisions to inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

As expected, and just like in March, the ECB has also produced new scenarios to account for the uncertainty it continues to face. These will be published together with the new projections after the press conference.

Watch the ECB press conference live here (due to start at 0845ET):

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:25

Futures Rise, Oil Drops As US Ends Iran Strikes

US equity futures are higher led by tech and small caps, with traders buying the dip in stocks as a swift conclusion to the latest round of US strikes against Iran raised expectations that talks over a peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will get back on track. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rise 0.7% to recover from a five-week low after Trump forewarned Iran would be hit “very hard,” followed by swift and superficial strikes; Nasdaq 100 contracts rise 1.1% with all Mag 7 stocks higher led by TSLA (+1.5%) and NVDA (+1.2%); ORCL is down 7% although that’s a better showing than in the postmarket after the company reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates. Bond yields are 1-3bp lower. Overall, we have seen an escalation in the US/Iran since Tuesday but the escalation is relatively limited given that the US Central Command have declared the operation complete. War jitters promptly faded after US Central Command called an end to “additional self-defense” strikes about four hours after launching attacks on multiple targets in Iran, with Brent reversing gains to trade 1% lower below $92 a barrel. Commodities are mixed: WTI crude fell $1.15 to $88.87; base metals are mostly lower, while previous metals are higher.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +1%, Nvidia +0.7%, Amazon +0.5%, Meta +0.2%, Alphabet +0.2%, Apple +0.4%, Microsoft unchanged.)

• Chipmakers and other AI-related firms rise after Oracle reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates, driven by increased data center spending.
• Rocket, satellite and space-linked companies gain, putting the sector on track to rebound after the recent slump.
• Eaton (ETN) gains 2% after agreeing to merge its mobility business with Dana Inc. in a deal valuing the combined company at roughly $10 billion including debt. Shares of Dana (DAN) are down 2%.
• Intel (INTC) rises 4% after BofA Global Research raised its recommendation to buy from underperform on expected growth from central processing unit sales.
• Navan (NAVN) gains 19% after the AI-powered travel and expenses platform boosted its total revenue outlook for the full year.
• Oracle (ORCL) falls 8% after the company reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates, raising investor concerns about the profitability of the AI infrastructure business.
• Stitch Fix (SFIX) rises 3% after the online personal styling platform raised its full-year forecast for net revenue from continuing operations.
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG) climbs 6% after BTIG started coverage on the space and defense company with a buy rating, citing growth potential.

In other corporate news, activist investor Elliott hit back at Australia’s biggest gold stock Northern Star Resources by urging the beleaguered miner’s board to take urgent action and reconsider a sale as its valuation flounders. Co-founder of Ben & Jerry’s said the ice cream brand’s new owner Magnum is in the “process of destroying” the Cherry Garcia maker’s future.  Meta has completed an operational split from Manus and halted data sharing between the two companies, taking a pivotal step toward unwinding a $2 billion acquisition opposed by Beijing. Shares of Alibaba and JD.com fell after Chinese regulators scolded leading e-commerce players for what it called misleading promotions. 

AI takes center stage again, with OpenAI considering drastic token price cuts, Goldman’s renewed estimate of explosive Hyperscaler capex growth, Oracle’s eye-watering spending forecasts and Citadel Securities’ “Tokenomics” report outlining how AI hype has been built on capabilities. The reckoning will focus on costs. 

Citadel Securities strategist Frank Flight notes the recent decline in token prices may reflect a shift toward cheaper AI models, as even the most powerful technologies must pass through “the prosaic discipline” of cost curves, capacity constraints and marginal returns. OpenAI is said to be considering drastically lowering the prices it charges users for its tokens as it seeks to win customers from its arch-rival Anthropic, according to the WSJ. 

Coming into Oracle’s results — the first for the new CFO, and with the stock up roughly 50% since April lows — the key question for investors was whether the company could balance growth and demand with capex and financing needs. In a microcosm of the AI bull and bear debate, Oracle delivered solid revenue growth of 20%, but forecast that its capex-to-sales ratio will accelerate to an eye-watering 100% next fiscal year.

Equities linked to the artificial-intelligence trade have turned volatile in recent days after powering global stocks to all-time highs on the back of strong earnings, with traders questioning whether the rally has run too far.

“Sentiment trends are shifting very quickly since Friday’s selloff and the market has become much more volatile and much more selective,” said Andrea Tueni, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque France. “Even if the trend remains upward, brace for some more erratic moves ahead.”

Meanwhile, anticipation is building for the market debut of SpaceX, whose $75 billion first-time share sale is due to price later on Thursday. The offering has attracted demand for more than four times the available shares. The offerings from SpaceX, and potentially others such as OpenAI, are raising questions about whether investors will pull money from existing stocks to fund the deals, or whether they will fuel further enthusiasm for AI shares.

“There’s nervousness about how markets will react,” said Josh Gilbert, lead analyst for Asia Pacific and the Middle East at Etoro Ltd. “How markets absorb the biggest listing in history at a rich valuation will tell us a lot about whether the appetite for the AI trade is still sky high.”

Veteran short seller Jim Chanos said SpaceX was a “hopes and dreams IPO,” driven more by investor enthusiasm for Elon Musk and AI than financial fundamentals, arguing its valuation is difficult to justify on any reasonable assumptions. The retail investment excitement is near fever pitch and showing up in pre-IPO trading and a 3x levered SpaceX product is planned.  

Worries about further Iran war escalation lingered as President Donald Trump told Fox News the US would hit Iran again if its leaders didn’t sign an interim peace deal. Iran’s foreign ministry said the latest attacks rendered the existing ceasefire deal “meaningless.” Traders, however, drew reassurance from the belief that further escalation was to neither side’s advantage. 

“We’re keeping our overweight equity exposure,” said Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions. “The market has taken the view that Trump doesn’t want to escalate further and has no interest in seeing oil prices surge again.”

The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates later on Thursday for the first time since 2023, concluding it can no longer ignore inflationary pressures stemming from the war in Iran. Traders will also follow comments by ECB President Christine Lagarde on policymakers’ outlook for the months ahead. President Christine Lagarde plans a news conference at 8:45am

European stocks also advance with a pullback in oil prices providing an additional tailwind. Treasuries advance, pushing US 10-year yields down 2bps to 4.53%. The oil price rose, lifting energy shares, after the US military launched strikes against “multiple” targets in Iran. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Beijer Ref gains as much as 10% after EQT’s Breeze TopCo agreed to sell its entire holding of non-listed A-shares in the Swedish industrial heating and cooling firm to Melker Schorling AB (MSAB) at an undisclosed premium
• BASF gains as much as 2.1%, rebounding from its lowest level in over two months, after being upgraded at Kepler Cheuvreux, whose analysts raised their earnings expectations for the German chemicals firm
• Wizz Air rises as much as 6.7% after the airline eked out FY net profit, beating expectations of a €35 million loss. Analysts at Morgan Stanley pointed to signs of normalization in consumer confidence and solid revenue guidance for 1Q 2027
• Grafton Group rises as much as 3.5%, hitting a one-month high, after the building supplies company outlined medium-term targets ahead of its capital markets day. Analysts said the goals are ambitious but can be delivered
• Puuilo gains as much as 12% to a record high after the Finnish home goods retailer reported stronger sales. DNB Carnegie says the print shows excellent delivery in the quarter, primarily driven by strong customer traffic
• Halma falls as much as 15%, the most since 1993, after the UK industrial group’s guidance for its Photonics business fell short of expectations, the key disappointment in an otherwise solid earnings report
• European software stocks drop after Oracle reported weak sales from its traditional software business; Oracle reported 4Q cloud applications sales that missed consensus estimate
• Camurus drops as much as 9.6% after the biopharmaceutical firm said it received a complete response letter from the US FDA in relation to its new drug application for Oclaiz, a treatment for patients with a rare hormonal condition
• Sligro Food Group plunges as much as 13%, marking the sharpest drop in 11 months after being downgraded at Oddo BHF, whose analysts said there are “no mid-term supportive arguments for a bullish investment case”
• RWS Holdings shares fall as much as 19% to their lowest since April after the British AI company’s earnings noted a £2 million hit from FX swings
• Voltalia drops as much as 9.7%, the most in five months, as Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from equal-weight due to the French renewable-energy producer’s high financial leverage and its impact on growth

Asian stocks fell as rising oil prices and persistent tensions in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.7% to its lowest level in three weeks before paring the decline. Alibaba Group and Samsung Electronics were among the biggest drags on the index, following concerns over pricing pressures.  South Korea’s Kospi rebounded and gained by 0.4%, while Indonesia’s benchmark dropped by 0.3%. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and China lead declines in the region. Momentum in regional stocks has weakened, with the Asian benchmark nearing its 50-day moving average. Investors remain jittery as US military launched strikes against multiple targets in Iran for the second straight day, triggering gains in oil prices. 

Jun Bei Liu, co-founder and lead portfolio manager at hedge fund Ten Cap Investment, said investors were taking profit in tech stocks. “I think this dip will be bought,” she said, adding the market might be getting hopeful that the situation in the Middle East would deescalate after the US military said it had completed its latest strikes in Iran.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edges higher while the euro is little changed ahead of the ECB decision later on Thursday.

In rates, treasuries are richer across the curve, slightly outperforming European bonds ahead of the ECB rate announcement at 8:15am New York time, with a decision to raise rates for first time since 2023 expected. US yields are 2bp-3bp richer on the day, keeping most curve spreads within 1bp of Wednesday’s close. 10-year, near session low 4.53%, outperforms German and UK counterparts by 0.5bp and 1.5bp. Treasuries have support from lower oil prices as signs of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz offset concern about fresh US attacks on Iran. Focal points of US session include May PPI data and 30-year bond reopening. The Treasury auction cycle concludes with $22 billion 30-year reopening at 1pm, following solid demand for 3- and 10-year note sales over past two days. 30-year WI yield near 5.01% is ~3.6bp richer than the May new-issue result

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down around 1.2% near session low. Brent crude futures fall more than 1% to below 92 with traders seemingly looking past fresh attacks between the US and Iran. Precious metals and Bitcoin also climb

US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims and May PPI (8:30am) and 1Q household change in net worth (12pm)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• OpenAI is considering drastically lowering the prices it charges users as it seeks to win customers from its rival Anthropic. The company is weighing significant cuts to what it charges for tokens, the unit of measurement artificial-intelligence firms use to bill for their products, according to people familiar with the matter. WSJ
• Donald Trump told Fox News that the US will launch more attacks on Iran unless it accepts an interim peace deal. His remarks followed another night of clashes between the two countries. Iran told ships with permits to cross the Strait of Hormuz to await guidance, saying it’s closed until further notice. BBG
• Efforts to reach an interim deal to end hostilities between Iran and the U.S. have intensified, three Iranian sources and a European official told Reuters on Thursday, despite strikes launched by both sides, as the warring parties discuss how to release frozen Iranian funds. RTRS
• A sharp fall in China’s crude oil imports during the Iran war has been instrumental in holding down oil prices and keeping the global economy humming. Clues are emerging in the mystery of the missing three million barrels—the oil that China would normally be importing but isn’t now. Chinese people are driving fewer gasoline-powered cars and taking trains instead of planes. WSJ
• SK Hynix plans to double its capacity within 5 years and triple it by 2034. Nikkei
• Shares of Alibaba and JD.com slid after Chinese regulators scolded leading e-commerce players for what it called misleading promotions. BBG
• The European Central Bank is all but certain to raise interest rates on Thursday in the hope of nipping higher inflation in the bud before a surge in energy costs triggered by the Iran war spreads ‌more broadly across the euro zone economy. RTRS
• S&P upgraded Argentina’s credit rating to B-, citing President Javier Milei’s fiscal austerity and improved liquidity access. BBG
• The Knicks staged the biggest comeback in NBA Finals history, rallying from a 29-point deficit to defeat the San Antonio Spurs 107-106 in Game 4. The win gave New York a 3-1 series lead, one victory away from its first NBA championship since 1973. BBG
• BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 6th Jun) +6.1% (prev. +5.2% W/W, +4.8% in Apr); entertainment, clothing, HI, furniture and transit saw the biggest acceleration.

Top Iran News

• The US carried out fresh strikes against Iran, with US CENTCOM saying that American forces began launching additional self-defence strikes, and then later announcing that it completed the strikes, targeting Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems and air defence sites across Iran. In response, Iran's military command centre announced the Strait of Hormuz would be closed to all vessels, effective immediately, and threatened to hit any vessels crossing the strait. Iran's IRGC also said it launched two waves of retaliatory strikes, hitting and destroying 18 key military targets in US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
• Following the overnight strikes, an Iranian source told Reuters that Iran and the US are still in negotiations over a preliminary deal, which includes a mechanism for unfreezing funds. This followed commentary by the Pakistani Foreign Minister stating that we remain engaged with a degree of optimism. The minister added that channels of communication remain open and Pakistan and Qatar remain engaged in mediation efforts. To add, CNN reported first, citing a source, stating that US-Iran talks still continue despite US-Iran military exchange.
• US President Trump said on Wednesday evening that fighter jets were operating over the skies of Iran, and he spoke directly with Iranian officials. Trump added that Iranians asked him to stop bombing, while he said the bombing will stop shortly, but left the option open for more strikes. Trump also stated that Israelis were not involved in Iran strikes and that the US fired 49 Tomahawk missiles, as well as noting that Iran must choose between war or a new deal and warned 'we'll bomb them to rubble tomorrow night' if there is no deal.
• Tasnim cited a reliable source stating that Trump's claim that Iranian officials spoke with him directly and wanted the bombing to stop is completely false, while the source added that no contact has been established with Trump and that Iran responds to aggression with military action.
• US President Trump held a Situation Room meeting on Iran strike options, while sources said one option Trump was considering was launching an operation that is big in scale but short in duration, according to Axios. However, NYT later reported that officials held a Situation Room meeting regarding the Epstein files and that the meeting was held without Trump.
• US Secretary of War Hegseth said Central Command would be busy overnight and that the US would hit Iran hard, with the US to bomb key facilities in Iran, and strikes would be strong and clear.
• IRGC Navy said vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz is considered cooperation with the enemy and "We warn that no vessel should leave its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman", ISNA reported.
• Iran said applicants who have received a transit permit are asked to be patient and await further guidance from the PGSA, IRIB reported and repeated that the Strait remains closed until further notice.
• UKMTO received a report of an incident 21NM Northeast of Sohar, Oman. Iran's Sirik Governor later said the US projectile hit a cargo boat in the Gulf of Oman.
• A 7th vessel carrying Qatari LNG is understood to have transited the Strait of Hormuz, Kpler's Bakr reported.
• India's embassy within Oman said they were informed on Thursday of an incident that involved a vessel in proximity to the Shinas port.
• Israeli airstrike targets a facility in Western Bekaa, central Lebanon, Al Hadath reported.
• Israeli airstrikes reported on towns in southern Lebanon, Al Mayadeen reported.**

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined in a continuation of the recent tech reversal, and as the US conducted strikes on Iran for a second consecutive day, which prompted Iran to retaliate by targeting US bases in the region and ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also declared the waterway closed to all vessels. However, stocks then gradually pared losses given that the fresh strikes were widely telegraphed beforehand and with relief also seen after CENTCOM announced that US forces completed the strikes. ASX 200 was pressured with the downside led by underperformance in tech and the top-weighted financials sector, although losses were stemmed by resilience in energy and defensives. Nikkei 225 slumped at the open owing to the fresh hostilities in the Middle East, with headwinds seen amid higher oil prices and upside in yields, although the index then staged a recovery and returned to flat territory before a renewed bout of selling persisted. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp followed suit to the weakness across global markets, with several tech stocks clustered among the list of worst performers.

Top Asian News

• Japan PM Takaichi and US President Trump are arranging a meeting during the G7, Nikkei reported.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said he doesn't think BoJ Governor Ueda's temporary hospitalisation will affect the BoJ's policy conduct and cooperation with the government.
• PBoC Governor Pan reiterated the depth and breadth of China's financial market, provide key allocation opportunities for overseas institutional investors.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) trade with broad gains despite another round of US-Iran strikes. The US targeted Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems and air defence sites across Iran, while Iran's IRGC said it launched two waves of retaliatory strikes, hitting and destroying 18 key military targets in US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Germany's DAX 40 (U/C) underperforms, weighed on by losses in SAP (-4.4%) following Oracle's earnings. European sectors trade mixed. Utilities (+1.3%) tops the list, with Energy (+1.2%) and Banks (+1.2%) round out the top 3. Autos (-0.4%), Real Estate (-0.4%) and Telecoms (-1.0%) are the underperformers.

Top European News

• France and Germany are discussing proposals for a radical overhaul of the EU’s diplomatic service in an attempt to improve the response to geopolitical crises, according to FT.

FX

• G10s are mixed against the Buck in relatively thin trade into the ECB meeting and US PPI.
• A busy morning in terms of newsflow, has not translated into price action/vol for G10s which are mixed against the flat Buck. Gradual weakness in Crude benchmarks seen among slew of optimistic US-Iran updates (see feed from 08:21-38 BST), did little to move DXY from its 100.00 handle despite Brent edging to session lows under USD 92/bbl. In short, it appears negotiations continue despite the recent exchange of fire. The Greenback seems less sensitive to geopolitical headlines as markets interpret recent US data with PPI ahead.
• CAD is the worst G10 performers as energy weakness pressures the Loonie. On Wednesday, the BoC held rates at 2.25% with some dovish undertones. Although release and accompanying remarks from Macklem/Rogers were a repeat from April, ING notes its use of language such as “excess supply” and “looking through” inflation may have offered the Loonie. Amid the recent weakness in energy benchmarks, USD/CAD could approach the 1.40 level should US PPI print hot.
• The main EUR event today will be the ECB meeting, where the Governing Council is expected to hike by 25bps, taking the Deposit Rate to 2.25%. This is justified by the assessment that the ECB is past the March baseline and is closer to the adverse scenario. Attention will be on language regarding a July move, where interest rate futures currently assign a 30% probability of tightening. EUR has been moving lower on account for recent USD upside as mentioned above. EUR/USD trades within recent parameters in the middle of a 1.15-16 band. If the ECB indicates further tightening, that could see the pair test resistance at 1.1570/80, whereas a dovish council may see recent lows of 1.15 tested, in conjunction with hot US PPI.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are trading tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark. This comes amidst another US strike on Iranian military targets, which led to retaliation from the Iranians. This led energy higher overnight, but then came off best levels as CENTCOM announced the latest bout of attacks are completed. Thereafter, energy benchmarks turned negative after CNN reported that US-Iran talks are continuing. This helped global fixed paper to clamber off worst levels, with the complex generally sitting towards highs.
• USTs (+2 ticks) trade towards the upper end of a 108-27 to 109-06+ range. The trough of the day was formed overnight, which coincided with the peaks in the energy complex. Thereafter, US paper clambered off worst levels, as the geopolitical environment eased. Domestically, focus will be on the US PPI report, which, together with Wednesday's broadly in-line CPI report, will be used as a key determinant for next week’s Fed policy announcement. The policy rate is unlikely to be adjusted, but focus will be on comments pertaining to the easing bias removal. Also on the docket today is a 30yr auction, which follows on from a decent 3yr outing and a strong 10yr auction. This notably comes despite the ongoing volatility and hawkish Fed repricing.
• Bunds (+9 ticks) are trading towards the upper end of a 124.88 to 125.29 range, currently driven by events in the Middle East, though focus will come back to Europe where the ECB is set to deliver a 25bps hike this afternoon. Given markets widely expect a hike, focus will be on the accompanying statement and President Lagarde to see if/how hawkish the Bank shifts. The likelihood is that Lagarde will keep optionality; ING opines that she will want to avoid “sounding too dovish”.
• Gilts (-3 ticks) are essentially flat and trade within a 87.39 to 87.60 range. Ultimately, moving at the whim of geopolitical developments. Domestic newsflow has been light, with some focus on Burnham comments where he suggested he would support Waspi Women, a compensation scheme believed to cost upwards of GBP 10bln. With the UK newsflow light, Gilts will likely take leads from this afternoon’s US PPI and ECB announcement.
• UK sells GBP 5.0bln 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.60x (prev. 3.35x), average yield 4.419% (prev. 4.238%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• Italy sells EUR 4.0bln vs exp. EUR 3.5-4.0bln 3.00% 2029 BTP: b/c 1.62x, average yield 3.03%.

Commodities

• The US carried out fresh strikes against Iran, with US CENTCOM saying that American forces began launching additional self-defence strikes, and then later announcing that it completed the strikes, targeting Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems and air defence sites across Iran. In response, Iran's shut the Strait of Hormuz and launched its own attack on some Gulf nations.
• Despite these strikes, an Iranian source tells Reuters that Iran and the US are still in negotiations over a preliminary deal, including a mechanism over unfreezing funds, while the Pakistan Foreign Minister said they remain engaged with a degree of optimism. Prior to that, CNN sources outlined that US-Iran talks continue, despite the US-Iran military exchange.
• Crude futures have completely pared the earlier gains. WTI Jul'26 reversed at the 50-SMA (USD 93.48/bbl) and currently trades at the lower end of its USD 88.77-93.64/bbl range. For Brent Aug'26, the benchmark has slipped below USD 92/bbl (USD 91.72-95.50/bbl range).
• Precious metals rebound following the drop in the last few days, action driven by several previously discussed factors. Spot gold dipped below the March 26th low of USD 4099/oz in Wednesday's session and extended to a trough of USD 4024/oz early in the Asia-Pac day. Since then, the yellow metal has bid higher and now trades at the upper end of its USD 4024-4118/oz range.
• 3M LME Copper gapped lower at the start of trade, following the selloff in APAC equities, but has since oscillated in a USD 13.39k-13.52k/t range.
• Japan's PM Takaichi said that she expects to secure 100% of crude in July, without passing the Strait of Hormuz.
• Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted daily price-limit bands and trading margin ratios for gold and silver futures contracts

US Eco Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun 6 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220k, prior 225k
• 8:30 am: May 30 Continuing Claims, est. 1785k, prior 1777k
• 8:30 am: May PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 1.4%
• 8:30 am: May PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1%
• 8:30 am: May PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 6.4%, prior 6%
• 8:30 am: May PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.4%, prior 5.2%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The rise in oil prices has continued this morning after the US launched fresh strikes against Iran for a second day running. So investors are increasingly pessimistic that a deal will be reached anytime soon, or that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. That’s meant Brent crude is up another +1.70% overnight to $94.68/bbl, building on yesterday’s gains. And as a result, global equities are at a one-month low, with the S&P 500 (-1.62%) posting a fresh slump yesterday. Moreover, those losses have shown no sign of easing in Asia, with the Hang Seng (-1.05%), the CSI 300 (-1.07%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.73%) and the Nikkei (-0.19%) all losing ground this morning. The one bright spot is that futures on the S&P 500 (+0.33%) have stabilised overnight, but the overall backdrop is one of mounting volatility as investors have priced a growing chance of further escalation.

All that follows a day of mounting threats, which culminated in several US strikes overnight. US Central Command framed them as “additional self-defense strikes” on “multiple targets”. Meanwhile, Fox News reported that President Trump had told them he would bomb Iran again today if they didn’t sign an agreement. So fears of a further escalation were very much in focus, and Iran’s Press TV said they’d targeted the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain using various attack drones.  

Even before those latest US strikes overnight, markets had already posted fresh declines yesterday as US-Iran tensions continued to mount. The first uptick in oil prices followed a post from President Trump, who said that Iran have “taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!” So that raised fears about an escalation, and a few hours later, Trump then said the US would “hit Iran hard again today”, suggesting that further action was on the table.

Those initial headlines led to a clear jump for oil, with Brent crude (+1.80%) ending the day at $93.10/bbl. Moreover, as investors dialled back the chance of a near-term resolution, longer-dated oil futures also moved higher, with the 6-month Brent future up +1.55% on the day to $85.89/bbl. And on Polymarket, there was increasing doubt that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen anytime soon, with the probability of normal traffic by end-July down to 26% by the close. Admittedly, there were a couple of headlines that were more positive. For instance, Fox News reported a senior White House official on background, who said “the talks still continue”. Meanwhile, Iran’s ISNA reported that a Qatari delegation had arrived in Tehran yesterday, for talks on diplomacy with the US. But for markets, investors have priced out the likelihood of a near-term deal, particularly with the latest strikes overnight.

With signs of a near-term resolution fading, investors grew more concerned about the stagflationary scenarios again, with bonds and equities selling off on both sides of the Atlantic. Indeed, the S&P 500 (-1.62%) fell to a one-month low, with tech stocks including the NASDAQ (-1.98%) and the Magnificent 7 (-2.23%) leading the way. The selloff was a classic rotation out of growth and cyclicals into defensives as Telecoms (+2.25%), Food & Bev (+1.98%) and Consumer Staple Retail (+1.86%) were the best performing S&P 500 industry groups, while Autos (-3.92%), Capital Goods (-3.88%), and Semiconductors (-3.76%) were the biggest laggards. And over in Europe, it was much the same story, with the STOXX 600 (-0.08%) down for a 4th consecutive session to a three-week low.

While geopolitics provided the main headlines, there were also developments on the AI-capex front as well. Most notably, Oracle shares fell -10.25% in after-hours trading after they reported higher capex spending than estimated, adding to doubts about the profitability of AI infrastructure like data centres. Otherwise, the company also announced plans to raise another $40bn in equity and debt, including a previously disclosed plan to issue $20bn in shares.   

For sovereign bonds it was much the same story of losses, with the 10yr Treasury yield up +3.6bps to 4.55% by the close. And that increase came despite the more positive impact from the US CPI print, where monthly core CPI was softer than expected, which helped to dial back some of the speculation about a Fed rate hike this year. So the release showed headline CPI up as expected in May, with a +0.5% monthly print that took the year-on-year reading to +4.2%. But core CPI was softer at +0.2% on the month (vs. +0.3% expected), with the year-on-year measure at +2.9%. But for sovereign bonds, the temporary relief from the CPI print was outweighed by the more negative geopolitical headlines and higher oil prices, so they still lost ground on the day.

Over in Europe, sovereign bonds also struggled ahead of today’s ECB decision. Once again, that was driven by the geopolitical headlines, with inflation fears ramping up. For instance, the 1yr Euro inflation swap was back up +4.85bps yesterday to 2.98%. And in turn, yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+4.1bps) and BTPs (+4.9bps) all moved higher again. That included a few records as well, with the 10yr OAT yield up to a post-2008 high of 3.85%, whilst Germany’s 10yr real yield (+2.7bps) hit a 5-month high of 0.83%.

Speaking of the ECB, they’ll be announcing their decision at 13:15 London time, where they’re widely expected to deliver a 25bp hike that lifts their deposit rate to 2.25%. That comes as inflation has clearly risen above target, and our European economists think the energy shock has now been large enough for the ECB to act. Indeed, the Euro Area flash CPI print for May was at 3.2%, whilst core CPI was also at a one-year high of 2.5%. In terms of what to look out for, given a hike is widely expected, a big question will be what they signal beyond this meeting about future hikes. Our economists think they’ll want to maintain optionality, and will keep further hikes on the table so markets don’t interpret today as a one-off move. 

Ahead of that, we also had the Bank of Canada’s latest decision yesterday. They left their policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, as was widely expected, and they kept their options open given the current uncertainty. For instance, Governor Macklem suggested that if higher energy prices led to higher inflation, then “there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate”. But he also suggested that additional US trade restrictions could mean they “may need to cut the policy rate further to support economic growth.” Against that backdrop, Canadian bonds saw a relative outperformance yesterday, with the country’s 10yr yield (+0.9bps) seeing a modest increase to 3.49%.

Finally, there were fresh tariff headlines as President Trump announced that he would not be reauthorising the country’s USMCA trade pact with Mexico and Canada agreed in his first term. He said “I’m not looking to renew it”, and without an extension, the deal would see rolling annual reviews while remaining in force for the next decade. It’s possible for a country to exit the deal with 6 months’ notice, but Trump did not say if he was considering this.

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, US data releases include the PPI reading for May, and the weekly initial jobless claims.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:19

A Small Win For Free Speech In UK

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

South Wales Police has shelved plans to record instances of "anti-Muslim hostility" that strayed beyond what officers considered "legitimate" discussion of Islam.

The force paused the policy after the Free Speech Union threatened judicial review and Shadow Equalities Minister Claire Coutinho referred it to the Equality and Human Rights Commission. Critics had warned the guidance functioned as a de facto blasphemy law in a country that scrapped such statutes 18 years ago.

The climbdown represents a tangible check on efforts to police speech through vague, subjective rules that empower authorities to decide what counts as acceptable criticism of one religion.

?? FSU Victory!!

The Free Speech Union has just heard from South Wales Police that it has withdrawn its guidance on "anti-Muslim hostility".

The force had effectively adopted its own Islamic blasphemy law, instructing officers to record any conversation that went beyond... pic.twitter.com/aEHeGGuxr5

- The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) June 9, 2026

Earlier this month, South Wales Police directed staff to log comments about Islam that exceeded the force's view of legitimate discourse. Anything beyond that line risked classification as an anti-social behaviour incident - the rebranded term for non-crime hate incidents. Those records could then appear in enhanced DBS checks, affecting employment prospects for teachers, carers and others in regulated roles.

The approach effectively "gold-plated" the UK government's March definition of anti-Muslim hostility. While ministers included explicit free speech safeguards stating the definition was not meant to inhibit criticism of Islam or Islamic practices, South Wales Police added its own subjective layer. Officers gained discretion to judge speech on the spot.

Free Speech Union General Secretary Lord Young highlighted the danger at the time:

"Our concern is that police forces and other public bodies adopting the definition will gold-plate it, ignoring those safeguards and penalising people for expressing misgivings about Islam, even when those views are rooted in evidence rather than prejudice. In particular, we are concerned that the default police response to reports of anti-Muslim hostility - even where they clearly fall outside the definition - will be to record them as 'anti-social behaviour incidents'... Those records may then be disclosed in enhanced DBS checks."

Conservative MP Katie Lam warned the framework would "make it harder to talk about Islamist extremism, FGM, and the grooming gangs. They'd rather restrict our right to criticise than deal with these problems head-on. It's putting us all in danger."

The definition itself emerged from a working group whose members had documented links to Islamist organisations previously avoided by governments. Concerns mounted that public bodies were creating special protections for one faith while documented issues with parallel societies, religious exclusion in housing, and extremism received softer treatment.

The Free Speech Union wrote directly to South Wales Police demanding withdrawal of the guidance. It argued the policy clashed with data protection rules and free speech protections. The group explicitly threatened judicial review if the force pressed ahead.

South Wales Police appear to be zealously enforcing their own version of an Islamic blasphemy law.

Officers have been instructed to record speech that goes beyond what they deem to be "legitimate" discussion of Islam.

This creates an extraordinarily restrictive category of... https://t.co/aW7PMkVM5c

- The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) June 8, 2026

Public exposure of the internal directive triggered swift backlash. Within days the force faced mounting pressure from multiple directions.

Then the force confirmed Tuesday it was pausing adoption of the bespoke anti-Muslim hostility definition.

The Free Speech Union noted the guidance would have threatened careers by creating disclosable records for speech that crossed an officer's personal line on Islam discussions. South Wales Police stated it would now seek guidance from the National Police Chiefs' Council before any further decision.

The Free Speech Union quickly declared victory and warned other forces against similar experiments.

This episode exposes how easily vague "hostility" frameworks can slide into selective speech monitoring. Officers were positioned as arbiters of acceptable thought on a single religion, with records that follow citizens into job applications.

Small victories matter. They prove that when civil society groups document the overreach, threaten credible legal action, and coordinate with opposition figures, even police forces reconsider. Other forces reportedly eyeing similar interpretations now have a clear signal: these policies carry real political and legal costs.

Britain scrapped blasphemy laws because no religion deserves a state-backed shield from criticism. Attempts to recreate that shield through the back door - whether dressed as community cohesion or hostility monitoring - deserve the same resistance. This pause shows such resistance can succeed when applied with precision and persistence.

Free speech protections exist to cover the difficult, the offensive and the evidence-based alike. When institutions try to carve out exceptions for one ideology, they erode the principle for everyone. The South Wales Police retreat is a reminder that those exceptions remain contestable.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:05

ECB Preview: First Rate Hike Since 2023

Markets expect the ECB to hike by 25bps, the first rate hike since 2023, but do not look for explicit guidance on the path ahead, with the Council likely pledging in the statement to set monetary policy in a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting fashion. Lagarde is likely to highlight that tightening is appropriate, for example, by repeating that the energy shock requires “some measured adjustment” in the policy stance. Goldman does not expect her to provide any specific guidance on next steps but look for her to reiterate that the Council wants to see more data and does not need to rush

SUMMARY (courtesy of Newsquawk)

• The ECB is expected to hike by 25bps, taking the Deposit Rate to 2.25%. Justified by the assessment that the ECB is past the March baseline and is closer to the adverse scenario.
• Alongside this, inflation forecasts will likely be upgraded and growth downgraded across 2026. The cut off date will have influence on the 2026 inflation view, with a later date likely to see less hawkish projections. For growth, any signs of or commentary around a technical recession being possible.
• Guidance from the statement will be non-commital with the ECB to perhaps stress a vigilant approach to policymaking, which could be interpreted as a hawkish-nod. Lagarde may be somewhat more explicit vs the statement, in an attempt to stop inflation expectations from becoming unanchored.

OVERVIEW: Recent developments place the ECB somewhere between the baseline and adverse scenarios outlined in March. An assessment that chimes with expectations for a 25bps hike and supports keeping options open for the remainder of the year. However, the balancing act between growth and inflation means that pre-committing to further tightening is not necessary at this point. Instead the ECB, whether via the statement and/or President Lagarde, will likely emphasize that it will be vigilant, or words to that effect, in safeguarding against price pressures in the EZ while acknowledging the deteriorating growth environment.

EUR/USD and the German 10yr yield approach the meeting around 1.1550 and 3.05% respectively. The market basecase, of a 25bps hike, elevated inflation forecasts and downgraded growth forecasts alongside no firm commitment to further tightening, would likely see a modest hawkish reaction in the above. If the ECB is more direct and places less emphasis on growth and more on inflation, alongside opening the door more explicitly to further tightening, ING looks for EUR/USD and the 10yr yield to rise to 1.1650 and 3.10%; levels we last traded at on the 2nd of June and 21st of May respectively. A more hawkish outcome, particularly a statement/press conference that signals the start of a tightening cycle, could see 1.1700 and 3.15%.

HAWKISH RISK: The projections could show a bigger core inflation overshoot in 2027, with greater concern around the inflation outlook in the monetary policy statement and a clearer signal that additional tightening is coming. For example, the Council could note in the statement that it judges it appropriate to “begin” tightening monetary policy (hinting at a process rather than a one-time adjustment) and Lagarde could open up July by emphasizing that the Council will have important data on second-round effects by then (provided by its corporate telephone, wage and inflation expectations surveys).  

DOVISH RISK: The Council could return to a two-sided assessment of the risks around inflation, show an inflation undershoot in 2028 (more similar to the March adverse scenario) and emphasize patience in the press conference (e.g., by stressing that it will receive a lot more data by the September meeting). 

PREVIOUS MEETING: In April, the ECB held the Deposit Rate at 2.00% as expected. The statement emphasized that the US is well positioned to navigate the current period of uncertainty, and as such they were not pre-committing to a particular rate path, sticking to a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. No new forecasts in April, but the commentary emphasised that upside inflation risks had “intensified”, while longer-term expectations remained “well anchored”. On the growth side, downside risk had “intensified”. The statement sparked a mild dovish reaction, as outside calls for a more hawkish shift were unwound. The subsequent press conference saw President Lagarde unveil that the ECB debated a rate hike, but the decision to hold rates was unanimous. A press conference that sparked a hawkish reaction in European assets. The hawkish skew was added to by subsequent sources, suggesting that a June hike was seen as very likely, Reuters reported.

PRICES: Mayʼs inflation data had a headline rate of 3.2%, ticking up from the 3.0% in April. Pertinently, the ECBʼs HICP Y/Y forecast for 2026 is 2.6% in the baseline, 3.5% in the adverse and 4.4% in the severe scenario. As such, the May print took the bloc further away from the baseline and towards the adverse projection, a point that factors firmly in favour of tightening monetary policy; though the gap to the severe scenario means a 50bps move or pre-committing to tightening post-June are not warranted yet. Within the May series, the internals saw further upside in the energy component and pertinently a jump in Services, to 3.5% from 3.0%. Continuing with May, the Final S&P PMIs showed price pressures intensifying “to their most worrying for over three years, hinting at inflation potentially running close to 4% in the coming months.”. A view that, if shared among policy setters, could see some in favour of more explicit guidance than the statement and/or Lagarde are likely to give. From the ECB itself, the latest Consumer Expectations Survey for April (released in June) vs March, showed one- and five-year consumer expectations remain the same at 4.0% and 2.4% respectively. While the three-year view moderated to 2.9% (prev. 3.0%). Figures that are all above the 2% long-term target, however, the unchanged view shows that expectations were not unanchored in April and, while somewhat dated, provides policymakers with further scope to take an “insurance” hike, given the clear price pressures, but not commit to anything further at this stage.

For the new macroeconomic projections, the above points to an upgrade of at the very least the baseline view, but likely also one or possibly both of the alternative scenarios. Specifically, Nordea expects the 2026 baseline to lift to 3.0% (prev. 2.6%). One point of nuance in the forecasts, particularly for prices, is the cutoff date. In March, the ECB used an exceptionally late cut-off date and a very small date range for the assessment. The above is based on that being repeated and an early June cut-off being used. If not, then the technical assumptions around energy will be significantly higher and as such the near-term inflation view would be more hawkish vs a later cut-off.

ECONOMY: Q1 GDP for the EZ stood at -0.2% Q/Q, after being subject to a marked downward revision in the 3rd estimate from 0.15%. However, some of this stems from a -12.1% print from Ireland, hit by the unwind of tariff and pharmaceutical related activity in the comparison. A more timely indication courtesy of the S&P PMI for May points to another -0.2% Q/Q print in Q2, bar any significant shift in June; if realised in the hard data, that would see the EZ enter a technical recession. Furthermore, the PMI showed a pick up in labour market losses. Unemployment data from member nations remains weak, with the EZ figure in April ticking up to 6.3% (prev. 6.2%). The most timely data available at the time of writing is the German GfK for June, which was bleak at -29.8 though it did improve slightly from -33.3 despite NIM outlining that the “negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East remains largely unchanged…”.

For the new macroeconomic projections, the data is indicative of a downgrade. In March, the 2026 baseline, adverse and severe scenarios were 0.9%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. Nordea looks for the 2026 baseline to be downgraded to 0.7%. Taking the ECB closer but not to the adverse scenario from March, and as such chimes with the narrative for an insurance hike and while it does not aid the argument for further 2026 tightening, it does not shut the door to a post-June move.

COMMENTARY: Overall, commentary chimes with consensus for a 25bps hike in June, given recent economic developments, but that it is too soon to commit to any tightening thereafter. Recently, Schnabel (26th May) outlined that prices are between the baseline and the adverse scenario, adding that “in terms of persistence, we have actually moved beyond the adverse scenario, which assumed a rapid normalisation of oil prices.”. Prior to that, on the 26th of May, Schnabel said that they should hike in June irrespective of the peace proposal. Simkus (29th May) described a near term move as an insurance hike, but also downplayed the impact of even 50bps of tightening over 2026, noting that the timing for a second move is less clear. In terms of forward guidance, Lane (26th May) remarked that they will not be pre-commiting to a particular path after June.

TRADES: Goldman likes to receive July/September meeting switch at ~18bps (72% chance). The bank thinks that you can have both a (near term) hawkish path to no hike in September, as well as a dovish path. The (near term) hawkish path would involve no near-term resolution on Iran, with the SOH continuing to be closed by the time of the July meeting, leading to a second ECB hike in July. Subsequently, you could then either have a resolution between July and September, or signs of further economic weakness and limited wage pass through, meaning that, by the time of the September meeting, and with policy rates at the upper end of neutral, the ECB decides to skip a rate hike at the September meeting. The dovish path is one of a near term resolution and a glut of oil from ships stuck in SOH hitting the market, pushing down energy prices and inflation and inflation expectations. In this scenario, it is very feasible, that the ECB will not hike rates again after the June meeting. 

THOUGHTS FROM GOLDMAN'S TRADING DESK:

Jari Stehn (Head of European Economics): We expect the ECB to hike by 25bp but do not look for explicit guidance on the path ahead, with the Council likely pledging in the statement to set monetary policy in a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting fashion. Lagarde is likely to highlight that tightening is appropriate, for example, by repeating that the energy shock requires “some measured adjustment” in the policy stance. We do not expect her to provide any specific guidance on next steps but look for her to reiterate that the Council wants to see more data and does not need to rush. 

George Cole (Head of European Rates Strategy): Our bias is for terminal rate pricing lower and flatter curve. Key for today’s meeting will be the signal on July, currently priced not far off 50/50. If the message is that July is more of a tail outcome then market can shift towards pricing one and done, particularly given leak lower in energy prices on view that SoH is more impaired than fully shut with increasingly more oil transiting (though obviously a lot of headline risks with waR). Ultimately September is a long way off with ample time for resolution and/or the lower growth impacts of the war to come through. Specifically we will be watching: 

1. Core inflation forecasts and whether they show persistence – GS econ are 2.5% both for 26/27; would be dovish if lower/inverts 
2. Whether Lagarde emphasizes that tomorrow's move buys time to watch the data and that currently little signs of 2nd round effects in the labour market 

Jan Scheffel (Global Co-Head of Short Term Macro Trading): Given the high level of uncertainty we expect the ECB to keep full optionality on the future policy rate path, neither pre-committing or ruling out a move at the July meeting. We would expect Lagarde to use communication along the line of: “In assessing the timing and extend of further policy adjustments, the governing council will take a data-dependant, meeting by meeting, approach. We are not pre-committed to any policy path.” 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 07:45

Strategy (MSTR) CEO Says Bitcoin Sale Was About Market 'Inoculation', Not A Retreat

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Strategy Inc. CEO Phong Le somewhat pushed back Tuesday against the wave of criticism that followed the company’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022, telling CNBC’s Power Lunch that the move was a deliberate, limited exercise designed to signal operational flexibility — not a philosophical reversal.

“We wanted to inoculate the market and we wanted to test our processes,” Le said in what the network described as a first-time interview. “We learned that everything works.”

Between May 26 and May 31, Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for approximately $2.5 million at an average price of $77,135 per coin — a transaction that, despite representing just 0.004% of the company’s total holdings, set off an outsized market reaction and reignited debate over whether Michael Saylor’s famous “never sell” doctrine was being abandoned.

BITCOIN’S FOUR-YEAR CYCLE IS STILL IN PLAY

Strategy CEO Phong Le however says the drawdowns are "much more" than just where we're at in the four-year cycle.

Inflation, rates, wars, and regulatory clarity are all shaping $BTC's next move. pic.twitter.com/TZANZZaQIF

— CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) June 10, 2026

Le was careful to frame the disposal in terms of balance sheet management rather than conviction. He cited three reasons for the sale: establishing that Strategy can sell when necessary, confirming that internal systems for executing Bitcoin disposals are fully operational, and creating opportunities to capture tax losses on Bitcoin acquired at lower cost basis — the company has purchased BTC at prices ranging from $10,000 to $125,000 per coin.

Critically, he said the sale was not driven by financial distress.

“We did not need to sell our Bitcoin to satisfy our dividends,” Le said. “We’re able to do that through other capital-raising activities.”

Proceeds from the sale were directed toward distributions on the company’s STRC perpetual preferred stock.

Le also pointed out that Strategy remained a net buyer: on balance, the company purchased approximately 1,500 Bitcoin over the same period it sold the 32 coins.

The most pointed exchange came when the host pressed Le on the backlash from investors who believed Strategy had pledged never to liquidate its Bitcoin reserves. Le acknowledged the frustration but was unapologetic.

“We have a set of constituents that we have to be able to answer to,” he said, listing common stockholders, preferred shareholders, debt holders, and Bitcoin holders. “When it makes sense for our common stockholders for us to sell our Bitcoin, we will.”

Le suggested the loudest critics were retail investors and “crypto anarchists” ideologically committed to permanent hodling — not the institutional shareholders the company interacts with directly.

“Our institutional shareholders that we talked to don’t seem to be unnerved by it,” he said.

This was not Strategy’s first Bitcoin disposal. In December 2022, the company sold 704 BTC at $16,776 per coin and repurchased 810 BTC two days later — a tax-loss harvesting maneuver that exploited the lack of a crypto wash-sale rule.

Jeffrey’s chief market strategist David Zervos, who joined Le on set, asked about the macro picture around Bitcoin, noting weakness across traditional safe-haven assets. Le acknowledged the broader headwinds, citing three macro forces pressuring Bitcoin: uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, two ongoing global wars, and a lack of regulatory clarity from Congress on pending crypto legislation.

Still, Le remained bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term thesis. 

“I do think Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation. I think Bitcoin is a hedge against big government,” he said, adding that the current environment — potentially a cyclical drawdown — mirrors the roughly 75% pullback seen in May 2022, four years ago.

Bitcoin price and Strategy shares under pressure

The market, for now, is less sanguine. Bitcoin was trading around $61,600 on June 10, 2026 — down more than 40% from its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025. The sell-off deepened after the Strategy announcement coincided with record spot ETF outflows estimated between $2.8 billion and $3.5 billion, triggering $1.8 billion in forced liquidations in a single day.

MSTR shares have been caught in the same downdraft, trading near $117–$127 as of this week — down roughly 67% from their 52-week high of $457.

Strategy has since resumed buying, acquiring 1,550 BTC at an average price of $65,332 between June 1 and June 7 in a move analysts characterized as an effort to restore market confidence. 

As of late May, the company held 845,256 Bitcoin at a total cost basis of approximately $63.97 billion.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 07:20

Alcoa Plunges Most In Year After CFO Warns Alumina Unit "Will Be Underwater" Amid Hormuz Disruption

Alcoa shares in New York were hammered the most in over a year on Wednesday after CFO Molly Beerman warned investors that the company's alumina segment faces heavy losses from the energy shock and ongoing disruption at the Hormuz maritime chokepoint.

Beerman was blunt with investors while giving a presentation at the Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference.

She said, "Our alumina segment is very pressured right now," adding, "The segment as a whole will be underwater."

Beerman said the unprofitability in the alumina segment stems from a toxic cocktail of soaring energy costs, supply disruptions in the Gulf region, and LNG disruptions in Western Australia following Cyclone Narelle.

Alcoa's alumina refineries are heavily exposed because they rely on fuel and electricity, and typically ship material to aluminum smelters in the Persian Gulf.

Alcoa's alumina refineries are mainly in Western Australia, Brazil, and Spain. None are located in the Gulf region.

What's important is that the company's refining assets are outside the Gulf, but its alumina cargoes feed Gulf smelters, making the business exposed to ongoing Hormuz shipping disruption and Gulf energy shocks.

Alcoa expects 2026 Alumina segment production of 9.7-9.9 million metric tons and shipments of 11.8-12.0 million metric tons.

Beerman's warning sent shares tumbling 9.5% in New York on Wednesday, marking the largest one-day drop in 14 months. Shares were up 2% in premarket trading, clawing back some of yesterday's losses.

Year-to-date, the stock is up 23.4% and is nearing its 2022 highs.

According to Bloomberg data, Wall Street analysts are mostly bullish on AA. 

We have cited several institutional metal desks, including Mercuria, Goldman, and JPMorgan, all of which see the Gulf energy shock producing a supply shock in the aluminum market. This has sent prices back to 2022 highs.

Mercuria commodities analyst Nick Snowdon recently told Reuters on the sidelines of the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, that "The scale of the supply shock we're seeing in the aluminum market is probably the largest single supply shock a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era."

Snowdon then told the outlet, "We are already in a 'black swan' event. No one could have foreseen something on this scale."

Latest reporting:

• Aluminum Supply Crisis Is About To Get Worse
• Aluminum Bull Case Gains Traction As Output Shrinks

Alcoa recently warned investors that the energy shock would weigh on second-quarter earnings.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 06:55

UK Plans To Jail Tech CEOs Who Refuse To Spy On Every Phone

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

New measures would compel client-side inspection of every photo, video and message on devices, escalating the digital ID lockdown already plotted for British smartphones in coordination with major technology firms.

Privacy advocates warn the "child safety" framing masks a broader drive to turn personal phones into mandatory surveillance endpoints, with criminal penalties aimed at any executive who resists.

Reclaim The Net, an organization dedicated to countering online censorship and digital surveillance, flagged the draft legislation in recent updates.

The UK is drafting a law to jail tech execs for 5 YEARS if they refuse to build scanners that scan EVERY photo, video & message on your phone.

Refuse the backdoor = go to prison.

All while screaming "think of the children." https://t.co/fN2rLCwuGk

— Reclaim The Net (@ReclaimTheNetHQ) June 9, 2026

The group described how UK authorities are preparing to imprison tech executives for up to five years under the Online Safety Act if companies refuse to build and deploy scanners capable of reviewing every piece of content on user devices.

The push targets expanded "client-side scanning" features, requiring devices to inspect material before it is sent or received.

Existing tools from Apple and Google, such as nudity detection in Messages or sensitive content warnings, would be broadened into comprehensive, always-active systems. Non-compliance would trigger direct penalties against company leadership rather than the firms alone.

UK Wants Message Scanning on Phones, Jail CEOs Who Refusehttps://t.co/B3WfHIS21p

— Reclaim The Net (@ReclaimTheNetHQ) June 9, 2026

Former Home Office safeguarding minister Jess Phillips, who resigned in May, had publicly pressed for faster action. She stated it had taken a year to secure agreement even to threaten legislation in this space and expressed frustration that promised timelines kept slipping, questioning how many children had gone without protections while focus remained on tech company objections.

? Tech companies like Apple and Google have three months.

Activate safeguards on smartphones and tablets to detect and block nude images for children or we will bring forward legislation to force you to do so.

— Home Office (@ukhomeoffice) June 8, 2026

This scanning requirement advances the same agenda detailed in earlier reporting on UK government plans to tie smartphone access to digital identification. Under those proposals, full device functionality would depend on users submitting verified government ID during setup or ongoing use, often through biometric checks such as video selfies paired with document scans.

Without compliance, devices would default to restricted child-locked modes, limiting core features like unrestricted messaging, streaming and browsing. The approach effectively creates a chokehold on software and internet access for anyone unwilling to submit to centralized identity verification.

? BREAKING: Keir Starmer threatens mandatory ID checks to use mobile phones

"Protecting children online is vital, but these are outrageous plans that will fail to address the underlying causes of online harm. This will only result in population-wide ID checks for all of us to... pic.twitter.com/GQVFUu4jdh

— Big Brother Watch (@BigBrotherWatch) June 8, 2026

Google has already begun rolling out digital ID support in the UK via Google Wallet on Android devices. Users can add verified copies of passports or other documents after completing a short video selfie and ID scan.

The feature aligns with Online Safety Act age checks and is being explored for wider certification under the government's digital identity trust framework, including potential use for age-restricted purchases.

Apple has implemented parallel restrictions on iOS in Britain, forcing age confirmation steps that previously caused major disruptions for millions of users.

Silkie Carlo of Big Brother Watch condemned the direction. "Protecting children online is vital, but these are outrageous plans that will fail to address the underlying causes of online harm," she said. "This will only result in population-wide ID checks for all of us to use our phones, tablets and laptops."

Carlo added: "Put simply, the Labour Government is introducing ID checks for the internet. No one in a democracy should need to show their passport just to get online."

She noted that the measures substitute performative government control for genuine parental responsibility, with children easily circumventing restrictions by using adult-registered devices. For adults, the backdoor digital ID requirement would mark "the death of anonymity and internet privacy."

?NEWS: The UK Government is planning to force tech companies to restrict phones

"This will only result in population-wide ID checks for all of us to use our phones, tablets and laptops.

These plans would replace efforts for meaningful tech and parental responsibility with... pic.twitter.com/OCUfCRH0RY

— Big Brother Watch (@BigBrotherWatch) June 5, 2026

GrapheneOS, the open-source privacy and security hardened mobile operating system, has laid bare how Apple and Google are weaponizing hardware-based attestation to eliminate competition and lock users into their approved devices and operating systems.

Apple and Google are gradually expanding their use of hardware-based attestation. They're convincing a growing number of services to adopt it. Google's Play Integrity API and Apple's App Attest API are very similar. Apple brought it to the web via Privacy Pass, which Google...

— GrapheneOS (@GrapheneOS) May 10, 2026

Governments are actively accelerating this lock-in. The EU and other authorities are mandating Apple and Google attestation for digital payments, government ID systems, age verification and banking apps, forcing citizens onto approved hardware and OSes just to access essential services.

The new jail threat for non-compliant executives directly operationalizes long-standing intelligence priorities. Client-side scanning has been a GCHQ ambition for years. Once embedded through regulatory compulsion, the technology sits inside every device and can analyze content before encryption takes effect.

Proponents present it as narrowly focused on blocking child sexual abuse material or grooming. The underlying code, however, supports expansion to any content category authorities later designate as prohibited, with updates pushed remotely and without fresh legislation or user consent.

This fits the wider digital ID infrastructure already under construction. The government's One Login platform and planned GOV.UK Wallet aim to centralize identity verification across services, incorporating biometric data, comprehensive audit trails and permission frameworks that can deny access to jobs, purchases or other functions based on compliance status.

Private discussions have included assigning digital IDs to newborns alongside health records, modeled on systems like Estonia's, creating cradle-to-grave profiles from the moment of birth registration.

Officials repeatedly frame these steps as essential child protection. Yet the architecture prioritizes mass data collection and device-level access over precise interventions.

Real exploitation concerns persist, but the chosen tools create permanent surveillance capacity that can be repurposed far beyond the initial justification.

The same political class overseeing high migration levels and repeated institutional failures around grooming scandals now demands ever-deeper monitoring tools.

International parallels reinforce the pattern: global digital identity blueprints promoted through bodies such as the World Health Organization, with backing tied to entities like the Gates Foundation, outline interoperable systems for lifelong tracking from birth, integrating personal data with socioeconomic details and enabling AI-driven behavioral conditioning around services, information and compliance.

In Britain, phone-based digital ID combined with mandatory scanning forms interlocking pieces of this apparatus. What begins as age verification or content filtering quickly becomes the technical foundation for conditioning everyday access to communication and information.

Reclaim The Net has tracked these developments closely, cutting through official language to highlight how incremental demands on technology providers accumulate into fundamental losses of individual control over personal devices.

Privacy-first messaging technology company Signal has issued a direct rebuke of the UK government's scanning demands, charging that the UK government plans on "using a dystopian combination of age verification and content scanning," that "will not safeguard children," adding that "It endangers us all."

? pic.twitter.com/HMZNl9uJ0j

— Rare | ???? (@RareAxies) June 8, 2026

The company makes clear that forcing client-side scanning across every device, paired with the age verification and digital ID mechanisms already in motion, creates a system that cannot be limited to its stated purpose. Once the technical capability exists to inspect all photos, videos and messages on phones before encryption, the architecture stands ready for expansion far beyond nudity detection.

This position from Signal carries particular weight. The app's entire model rests on unbreakable encryption that keeps even the company itself from accessing user communications. Mandatory device-level scanning directly undermines that foundation, turning every smartphone into a potential informant regardless of which secure app a user chooses.

While ministers insist the measures target predators, Signal and other privacy advocates recognize the inevitable outcome: a surveillance apparatus that endangers the privacy and security of the entire population.

Companies that refuse to weaken their products face the newly proposed criminal penalties against executives, while those that comply hand the state a backdoor into every device.

Threatening prison time for executives who refuse to weaken device security or encryption sends a clear signal. Global technology companies operating in the UK face direct coercion to embed features that compromise user privacy for everyone, not merely targeted suspects.

This is what the UK spyware proposal means.

There must be government spyware on every mobile device. It shall watch everything that happens, including always watching the screen, looking for things the government disapproves of.

When anything is flagged by the software as...

— Mullvad.net (@mullvadnet) June 9, 2026

Britain edges closer to pioneering one of the most restrictive internet regimes among democratic nations, where routine phone use requires submission to centralized identity systems and preemptive content inspection. History shows such infrastructures rarely remain limited to their stated initial purposes.

Genuine protection of the vulnerable rests on strong families, community standards and focused law enforcement, not universal device spying sold as safety. The current trajectory constructs the mechanisms for expansive state oversight while eroding the private sphere that has long defined free societies.

As draft laws move from discussion to enforcement with criminal penalties attached, the opportunity to halt this digital chokehold narrows. Defending the principle that individuals retain sovereignty over their own phones and communications is now central to preserving liberty in an age of accelerating technological control.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 06:30

First Major Weather Organization Declares El Nino Onset As Food Inflation Risks Intensify

For months, we have warned readers that the probability of El Niño formation was rising, with downstream risks across critical agricultural growing belts. That forecast has now moved from a risk scenario to reality, as the first major weather body has formally declared the onset of this warming pattern in the equatorial Pacific, threatening to disrupt rainfall, temperatures, crop yields, power demand, and commodity flows into year-end.

Bloomberg commodity expert Javier Blas wrote on X, "The Japanese Meteorological Agency becomes the first major weather body to formally call the onset of El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific."

"It's the first El Niño in three years, and some forecasters expect it to be one of the strongest ever," Blas noted.

The Japanese Meteorological Agency becomes the first major weather body to formally call the onset of El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific.

It's the first El Niño in three years, and some forecaster expect to be one of the strongest ever. https://t.co/v6OlU9mMTu

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 10, 2026

Our coverage on the El Niño risk:

• We Are Being Warned That A "Godzilla El Niño" Could Absolutely Devastate Global Food Production
• Meteorologists Sound Alarm Over El Nino Plume Racing Across Pacific Like "Freight Train"
• Meteorologists Warn About Super El Nino Event
• UBS Warns El Nino May Intensify Food Inflation Across Asia

El Niño is driven by unusually warm Pacific waters and can shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide. Early impacts are already appearing, including a delayed Indian monsoon and disruptions to Peru's fishing season. Historically, strong El Niño events have reduced yields for the world's top agricultural belts.

Already...

• The Cost Of The Grain That Feeds Half The World Just Posted Biggest Monthly Surge Since 2008

Thailand white rice, a regional Asian benchmark, surged 20% in May, the largest monthly increase in data going back to 2008, according to Bloomberg.

Here is the Bloomberg overview of El Niño:

What is El Niño?

El Niño was first observed in the 1600s by Peruvian fishermen, who noticed that Pacific waters were unusually warm around Christmas time in some years. They named this naturally occurring phenomenon "El Niño de Navidad" in reference to the Christ Child.

During El Niño, trade winds that normally blow east-to-west and push warm Pacific water toward Asia begin to weaken or even reverse direction. It's unclear what triggers this shift, but it results in warm water drifting toward the Americas, heating large parts of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The extra warmth changes the atmosphere above the sea. Storm tracks shift and rainfall patterns move.

How often does El Niño occur?

There's no fixed timetable for when El Niño emerges. It typically appears every two to seven years and varies in strength and duration. The last event was in 2023-2024.

El Niño is part of a larger Pacific climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. The cycle swings between El Niño, its cooler counterpart La Niña and a neutral phase in between. During La Niña, the east-to-west trade winds become stronger, pushing warm water further west and resulting in a cooler-than-usual eastern Pacific.

The immense size of the Pacific Ocean, which covers around a third of the planet's surface, gives ENSO an outsized influence on global weather. While similar climate patterns exist in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, they don't have the same reach. El Niño and La Niña events usually peak between December and January, although their effects can linger for months.

What is a 'Super El Niño'?

El Niño is identified by monitoring the temperature levels in the Pacific Ocean, most commonly in a region known as Niño 3.4. The threshold for El Niño used by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is when the sea surface temperature exceeds the long-term average by at least 0.5C (0.9F) for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. For a strong El Niño, the temperature difference must be at least 1.5C; for a very strong El Niño it must reach at least 2C.

"Super El Niño" isn't an official term used by forecasters such as NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization. It's been popularized this year as a very strong El Niño looks to be on the cards.

Very strong El Niños are rare. There have only been around a handful since 1950 and the last one was in 2015-2016. Severe weather events are more likely to occur when there's a stronger El Niño, but they're not guaranteed.

How is the weather affected by El Niño?

The heat that El Niño slowly releases from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere often pushes global temperatures to new highs. Scientists expect 2027 to be one of the hottest years on record, potentially dethroning 2024, which came in 1.5C above the pre-industrial average, according to NOAA.

El Niño doesn't hit every region in the same way. The effects typically materialize in the tropics first, before spreading across Australia, Asia, the Americas and Africa.

Australia, southeast Asia, the northern US and Canada usually become hotter and drier, making them more prone to drought and wildfires. India can experience disruptions to monsoon rainfall. The southern US, Chile, Argentina and parts of East Africa frequently experience wetter conditions and a greater risk of flooding.

The Atlantic hurricane season often becomes quieter during El Niño years because increased wind shear — a sudden change in wind speed or direction — tears apart developing storms. The hurricanes that do form could still be highly destructive, but a lower frequency could reduce the harm to communities and infrastructure and limit disruption to oil and gas assets in the Gulf of Mexico.

There are usually around 14 named Atlantic storms from June through November — storms are given names when their wind speeds reach 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour. NOAA expects there to be only eight to 14 this time around, in part due to El Niño.

By contrast, typhoon activity across the Pacific tends to increase during El Niño years. The warmer water provides more fuel for these tropical storms, meaning Asia could face increased risk of typhoon damage.

Why do the changes from El Niño matter?

El Niño is one of the world's most closely watched climate signals because it offers clues about storms, drought risk, crop yields and energy demand months in advance.

Utilities use ENSO forecasts to gauge demand for heating and cooling. Higher temperatures boost electricity consumption for air conditioning. This can strain power grids and trigger blackouts. Less rainfall reduces output from hydroelectric dams.

Commodity traders watch for threats to crops, mining operations, oil and gas production and shipping routes. Drought can lower water levels in the Panama Canal, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, slowing cargo traffic through one of the world's busiest shipping bottlenecks.

El Niño can have both positive and negative effects but the global economic losses have historically outweighed the regional benefits. Scientists at Dartmouth College looked at the lingering five-year fallout from El Niños and estimated that the 1997-1998 event led to $5.7 trillion in lost gross domestic product globally.

How does El Niño affect food production?

Some crops benefit from El Niño. Higher rainfall in California, for example, is good for avocado and almond yields. However, many staples, including rice, wheat, palm oil, coffee and sugar, are produced in areas likely to face drier and hotter conditions.

Beyond the impact on land, El Niño can disrupt ocean fisheries. The warm Pacific water flowing eastward keeps a lid on cooler, nutrient-rich water ascending to the sea surface, resulting in fewer phytoplankton for fish to eat. Some fish, such as anchovies off the coast of Peru, may seek cooler, deeper water, making them harder to catch, while tropical species may venture to areas that are normally too cold.

Lower crop harvests, smaller fishing hauls and livestock casualties from extreme weather can threaten global food security and push up prices.

The reason the El Niño weather pattern is drawing so much concern is that weather shocks can directly impact agricultural yields, tighten food supplies, and send prices higher. That risk is emerging at the same time energy shocks from the Gulf are already lifting inflation expectations (read here). If food prices begin to accelerate on top of higher energy costs, the result could be a renewed inflationary period in the latter half of the year.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 05:45

Trump Says 'We'll Bomb The Sh*t Out Of Them' Tomorrow Too If No Deal,  After Dozens Of Tomahawks Hit Iran Summary

• Trump to FOX: 'We'll bomb the shit out of them tomorrow night.'" The president declared "we'll bomb them to rubble" again tomorrow night if there is no deal by then. US says strikes completed tonight.
• The IRGC is claiming to have struck 18 US military targets in two waves - including attack on Bahrain's US Fifth Fleet HQ.
• US begins strikes on Iran for second straight night: according to Centcom, "US forces began launching additional self-defense strikes today at 5:15 p.m. ET against multiple targets in Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction. The strikes are in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression."
• Explosions had been heard in the Iranian towns of Sirik, Manab, Bandar Abbas and Bushehr,
• Hegseth confirms imminent attacks on key Iranian facilities
• Trump says "Will be attacking Iran hard again today"
• Trump says "secret mission" has reopened the Strait
• Trump tells Fox he "may keep going" with strikes.
• Trump says Iran took too long to negotiate, and now "will have to pay the price".
• Tehran claims prior night attacks in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan as fulfilment of its previously vowed 'retaliation' - targeted the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, footage shows.
• Iran again signals it could cut off all indirect talks & any negotiations, says it is 'reviewing' US talks after latest exchange of missiles.

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 18% · No 83%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump Warns: "We'll Bomb the Shit Out of Them" if No Deal

Fox News' Trey Yingst has issued a new reporting update, quickly on the heels of a fresh Trump-ordered bombing of Iran. He says: "I asked the president what will happen if the Iranians don't sign an agreement that was put forward by American negotiators. President Trump said, 'We'll bomb the shit out of them tomorrow night.'" The president declared "we'll bomb them to rubble" again tomorrow night if there is no deal by then.

US MILITARY SAYS IT HAS COMPLETED LATEST STRIKES IN IRAN

Tonight's aggression has prompted Tehran to once again declare the Strait of Hormuz closed to “all types of vessels”. Bombs have not yet fallen directly on the capital, but reportedly outside of it. This could quickly change. Importantly concerning Trump's latest claims, Iranian leadership is denying that it engaged Trump directly tonight. The highlights from Fox's Yingst:

• The President told me he spoke directly with Iranian officials tonight who asked him to stop bombing.
• 49 Tomahawk missiles had been fired by the United States at the time we spoke, along with bombing from fighter jets.
• Closest target to Tehran was approximately 40 miles outside of the city.
• Trump added that the bombing will stop shortly, but that if they don't sign the agreement, "we'll bomb the shit out of them."
• President Trump called this "the most violated ceasefire in the history of the world." V
• Vice President JD Vance told me the United States is dealing with both moderate and more extreme voices in Iran as part of the negotiation process.

Spoke with President Trump tonight as he oversaw the U.S. military strikes against Iran from the Situation Room.

The President told me he spoke directly with Iranian officials tonight who asked him to stop bombing.

49 Tomahawk missiles had been fired by the United States at… pic.twitter.com/s4WnsPTO4d

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 10, 2026

Tasnim is now reporging fresh Iranian counter-attacks on US bases across the Gulf, with multiple explosions being reported at American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The IRGC is now claiming to have struck 18 US military targets in two waves.

Bahrain is where a key naval command headquarters is located, and the Iranians are newly claiming a direct targeted strike on the US Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters. We are once again witnessing the 'escalation ladder' ramp up, and negotiations seem in reality nowhere on the horizon. This could be the start of several more days of strikes and counter-attacks to come, as Tehran is not so easily going to come back to the negotiating table, hat in hand. But it seems the White House is still betting on this, though risk and unpredictability are skyrocketing at this stage.

Newly emerged widely circulating video shows an Iranian Cold War-era relic still active:

Iranian F-14 Tomcat fighter jet landing at one of the air bases in Iran.

Video claimed to be from tonight. pic.twitter.com/4ZNTJKa2k7

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) June 10, 2026 US Begins strikes on Iran

After multiple previews of the main event, US Central Command said that its forces began launching additional self-defense strikes today at 5:15 p.m. ET against multiple targets in Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction. "The strikes are in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression."
 

U.S. Central Command forces began launching additional self-defense strikes today at 5:15 p.m. ET against multiple targets in Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction. The strikes are in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression.

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) June 10, 2026

Local Iran media reported that explosions had been heard in the Iranian towns of Sirik, Manab, Bandar Abbas and Bushehr, while Al Hadath reported than an explosion was heard in the Al-Saban military camp in Aden, Yemen.

Additionally, there are unconfirmed reports that retaliatory Iranian ballistic missile launches are already underway, amidst what appears to be the resumption of a new round of U.S. strikes on Iran.

Early reports now indicate that retaliatory Iranian ballistic missile launches are already underway, amidst what appears to be the resumption of a new round of U.S. strikes on Iran.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 10, 2026

* * * 

Hegseth Signals Imminent Attacks On Key Iranian Facilities, Iran Says "Fully Prepared"

Echoing President trump's earlier comments, Sectary of War Pet Hegseth just announced that: "CENTCOM will be busy tonight, we will be hitting Iran hard, we will bomb key facilities in Iran."

🚨🇺🇸 BREAKING: Hegseth announces major strikes on Iran tonight:

"CENTCOM will be busy tonight, we will be hitting Iran hard, we will bomb key facilities in Iran."

Announcing the strikes before they happen is itself the strategy.

You don't telegraph a bombing campaign hours in… pic.twitter.com/gwKwQjem2R

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 10, 2026

As @MarioNawfal writes, Announcing the strikes before they happen is itself the strategy.

You don't telegraph a bombing campaign hours in advance unless the message matters more than the surprise.

This is the final-pressure play in its purest form: the bombs are loaded, the targets are picked, and the paper is still on the table waiting for a signature.

An Iranian military source told Tasnim news that:

"The Iranian armed forces are fully prepared tonight. If the Americans take any aggressive action, they will once again face heavy responses. 

The Americans' idea of 'controlled escalation' is foolish, and Iran will not hesitate to dictate new calculations to the Americans."

Oil prices are up at the highs of the day on the news...

Trump says "Secret Mission" has Allowed 200 Ships, 100 Million Barrels of Oil Through Strait

Confirming our reported from both a week ago (see "As Gulf States Plan Bypass Pipelines, US Military Is Quietly Helping Ships Cross Hormuz") and this afternoon ("Growing Number Of Oil Tankers Successfully Sneak Through Hormuz, Shrinking Iran's Leverage") moments ago Trump posted on Truth Social that he had "directed our Great U.S. Military to execute a secret mission to support Oil Tankers and other Commercial Ships through the Strait of Hormuz." Of course, the mission wasn't that secret if we discussed how the US military was helping ship cross the Strait one week ago. 

In any case, Trump added that "this effort has resulted in more than 100 MILLION Barrels of Oil making its way through the Strait, and into the Open Market. More than 200 Commercial Ships have safely traveled through the Strait," which would explain why oil prices have remained low and confirms what Goldman's Delta One head, Rich Privorotsky, wrote this morning, namely that "a lot has been thrown at the oil market and it’s simply not going up, which is remarkable given the level of escalation. The only conclusion that really fits the price action is that barrels are still getting through the Strait of Hormuz, visibly or otherwise. There doesn’t seem to be a more rational explanation."

"This wildly successful effort is because the UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz — NOT Iran" Trump concluded.

Now the question is whether Iran, whose leverage in the conflict would be viewed as dramatically reduced as a result of this development, will allow stealthy tankers and other ships, with transponders shut, to continue crossing the strait affirming Trump's implicit claim that the country no longer has control over the strait, or if Tehran will make a public demonstration of how much control it still has.

Trump says "will be attacking Iran hard again today"

Oil surged, jumping by more than a dollar with WTI rising above $91 with Brent touching $94 after President Trump vowed to strike Iran again and slammed the country for delaying talks on an interim peace deal, after renewed attacks overnight put further strain on a fragile two-month truce.

“We’re going to be attacking them, attacking them very hard,” Trump told reporters at the White House Wednesday. “We hit them hard yesterday, and we’re going to hit them hard again today.”

Trump declined to say what targets US forces would hit in Iran. The president renewed earlier criticism that Tehran has taken too long to negotiate an end to the conflict. 

“I’ve been working with Iran for a number of months, and they should sign their deal,” he said. “It was just tap, tap, tap, I don’t know what they’re doing.”

BREAKING: President Trump says he is going to continue bombing Iran "very hard" after it shot down a U.S. helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz.

"We're going to be attacking them and attacking them very hard."

"I've been working with Iran for a number of months, and they should… pic.twitter.com/tlO6S10uyo

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 10, 2026

Trump said he retaliated against the Islamic Republic for shooting down a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has not confirmed shooting down the aircraft and said it was reconsidering whether to persist with negotiations in light of the US attacks.

“The diplomatic process doesn’t happen in a vacuum and to advance any diplomatic process you need a minimum space to be able to move forward,” Esmail Baghaei, a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, was cited by the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency as saying. “Wherever necessary, our armed forces will respond to the enemy with authority.”

Trump’s comments came after the two sides once again exchanged strikes, underscoring how high tensions are running and the risk that intermittent indirect talks between Iran and the US may be derailed. The overnight clashes followed a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel earlier this week, but halted after Trump called on both sides to stop.

The S&P extended its decline to more than 1% and WTI climbed above $91 a barrel to session highs, after Trump’s comments.

Since almost the start of the conflict, Trump has swung from threats of intensified attacks to touting that a deal is within reach. Even with tensions escalating since last week, he had signaled he wants to contain hostilities and avoid a return to all-out war before the new post. 

A White House official said talks are still ongoing and that the US will exert maximum pressure until a deal is reached. Fox News first reported the status of the talks. The semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported that a Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran on Wednesday to discuss the diplomatic process to end the war.

The US military said it had completed an operation that saw fighter jets strike Iranian air defenses, ground control stations and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missiles on four American targets, including shelters housing F-35 fighter jets and a command center for the US military at Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan, state-run IRIB News said on Wednesday.

Iran also said it fired drones at the main US naval base in the Middle East, located in Bahrain, and struck Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait.  Kuwait’s defense ministry said it had intercepted projectiles early Wednesday, while Jordan said it had intercepted five Iranian missiles.

Tehran said it had exercised its “inherent right to legitimate self defense” and warned regional states not to allow the US and Israel to use their territory as a staging post for strikes on the Islamic Republic.

There were no immediate reports of casualties in any of the attacks.

* * * 

Could 'Keep Going' With Strikes: Trump to Fox

More strikes coming? Trump is certainly strongly hinting at this, and yet an overall strategic vision still remains murky and ill-defined. Once again he in a short 12-hour period went from hyping a deal being a few days away, to now threatening yet more attack waves on Iran, in wake of last night's:

President Trump said Wednesday that he's close to ordering more strikes on Iran after the country's attacks targeting American bases in Persian Gulf nations, according to Fox News' Trey Yingst.

Mr. Trump said he "may keep going" with strikes, which he said would target power plants and bridges, because Iranian negotiators are "tapping the United States along," according to Yingst.

He wrote on Truth Social just before these comments that Iran will have to "pay the price" after taking too long to proceed with negotiations. 

Trump: Iran Took Too Long To Negotiation, Now Will 'Pay'

As part of what the United States is calling its latest 'defensive strikes' after Iran shot down an Apache helicopter in the Hormuz region, American forces overnight into the early Wednesday hours targeted "air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites" - the Pentagon said. Iran confirmed that there were indeed fresh attacks around Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, but gave no details on the damage, or info on other strikes potentially conducted elsewhere across the Islamic Republic.

"The operation was a proportional response to recent attacks on U.S. forces and international commercial ships transiting regional waters," US Central Command (CENTCOM) said. Trump is meanwhile again lashing out at Tehran, claiming its military is now a "complete and total mess" - and yet it keeps responding:

Oil reacts, sensing no peaceful off-ramp or de-escalation on the horizon...

Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan Hit Hard by Iranian Overnight Attack

Tehran later claimed attacks in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan as fulfilment of its previously vowed 'retaliation' - and given these countries host American forces. This marks merely the second time this week the ceasefire was ignored (or rather, shattered - though the White House is maintaining it's still on) with major tit-for-tat strikes, as each side asserts that it is acting 'defensively'.

Iran has been saying it's going to keep up the pressure on Washington and its Gulf allies through both the 'battlefield and diplomacy' - with Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei freshly charging that the US is "undermining" the diplomatic process through "contradictory messages, frequent shifts in its positions and demands, as well as repeated violations of the ceasefire."

He indicated that at this point there's not even the "minimum level of conducive conditions" that is "required in order to carry out diplomacy effectively."

Bahrain and Kuwait got hit hardest in these newest strikes, with reports saying the US Fifth Fleet base came under fire:

BREAKING: Footage shows a ground-level explosion in Manama, Bahrain from an Iranian missile strike in the direction of the US 5th Fleet HQ minutes ago, with up to 20+ separate explosions now reported across the city. pic.twitter.com/LCHlZBGKra

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) June 10, 2026 Iran Touting Both 'Diplomacy & the Battlefield'

"The Zionist regime is also damaging this process through its repeated violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon," Baghaei said, adding "any diplomatic process is harmed by the use of force and unlawful actions."

"Diplomacy and the battlefield are not separate matters. Together they serve as instruments for safeguarding Iran’s national interests and security," he stressed in a familiar refrain of late.

He also indicated the question of negotiations will be "reviewed" in light of last night's developments, and further emphasized, "Wherever necessary, our armed forces will respond to the enemy with authority."

Only when you see it with your own eyes you start to appreciate how impressive a salvo of 10 Kheybar-Shekan Aero-Ballistic missiles is...

(especially when timed on purpose at dawn) pic.twitter.com/6JpTRBvBHW

— Patarames (@Pataramesh) June 10, 2026 "Every Side Believes They Can Control the Escalation"

But it's also clear Tehran feels it must assert strong red lines immediately and without hesitation if it is to survive this now several months-long military confrontation with Washington. On this, longtime regional war correspondent and analyst Elijah Magnier has some insight as to each side's calculus: 

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Magnier said it’s a volatile situation with no “stable political exit” as peace is far from being achieved while Lebanon and Gaza remain outside of any final settlement.

“The most dangerous thing is that every side believes they can control the escalation. However, a repeated incident can erode restraint, and if talks collapse completely, this controlled escalation could widen into a much larger conflict,” he said.

History has shown if “one strike crosses the red line” the attacks can spiral out of control, said Magnier.

Indeed in many ways that's how we got here in the first place.

Vital water infrastructure reportedly struck in Iran during this new round of intense but brief escalation:

U.S. military strikes reportedly hit drinking water storage tanks in the Bamani district of Sirik county, Hormozgan province, Iran. pic.twitter.com/GMw8Ha9DaH

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 10, 2026

The White House believed it could control the outcome from day one of Operation Epic Fury, and then perhaps a bit of panic set among US officials in when it was realized the government in Tehran would not so easily fall, and that the military apparatus would become hardened, and its power expanded. 

Reports of another US MQ-9 Reaper drone shot down over Iran:

Footage of U.S. MQ-9 Reaper falling down over Jam county, Bushehr province, Iran after it was hit. https://t.co/nJHBkyF2cz pic.twitter.com/99evGPBrgm

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 10, 2026

From there it took many weeks to get the naval armada in place, enough to where a blockade could be enacted against Iran's ports and its crucial oil exports. The White House continues to face several 'bad' and 'worse' options for dealing with the crisis, as energy prices are set to soar this summer.

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk...

• US President Trump told ABC that the US was responding to Iran and that it is important to respond to Iran downing the helicopter, as well as noted that the response is very strong and powerful.
• US VP JD Vance said the US is very close to reaching a deal that would address Iran's nuclear programme for the long term, which could come next week or months from now, but absolutely before the midterms, according to CBS.
• White House senior official said nothing has changed in their position regarding an agreement with Iran and it is still close despite the strikes.
• A US official said the US military carried out strikes on almost 20 targets inside of Iran, but noted preliminary assessments indicate most Iranian missiles and drones were successfully intercepted.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said they need to reassess, following the overnight clashes, when questioned on talks with the US, SNN reported.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry statement strongly condemns America's crime in its military aggression against Iran.
• An Iranian military source tells IRIB that no offensive military operations have been conducted in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours. Warned that if the enemy carries out another hostile action under the pretext of the military helicopter crash, it will face a decisive response.
• A massive fire in the centre of Erbil and an explosion has been heard near the US base in the vicinity, Mehr news reported citing sources.
• Local sources reported that an explosion was heard in the area of Qeshm city, Mehr News reports. However, this was later denied by the Qeshm governor.
• UN Security Council debated reviving the Iran sanctions panel, although Russia and China opposed the revival of the Iran sanctions committee, according to Tasnim.
• Israeli air raids hit the Lebanese towns of Touline, Srifa and Kafra. It was separately reported that missiles were spotted from Lebanon that were headed towards Kiryat Shmona and its surroundings, while rockets launched from Lebanon towards Upper Galilee were also detected.
• UKMTO has received a report of an incident 20nm Northeast of Oman’s Sohar.
• UKMTO reported an incident involving a cargo vessel 88 nautical miles southwest of Balhaf, Yemen.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 05:08

Germany's Big LNG Deal With Canada May Never Deliver A Single Cargo

Authored by Andrew Topf via OilPrice.com,

• Germany has signed long-term LNG offtake agreements with Canada's Ksi Lisims project, seeking energy security and supply diversification amid heightened geopolitical risks.

• Despite the deals, Canadian LNG may never physically reach Germany due to geography, shipping economics, and the lack of Atlantic Coast export infrastructure.

• Instead, Germany could use LNG cargo swaps, sending Canadian gas to Asian buyers while receiving equivalent volumes from suppliers closer to Europe.

The Iran war has made supplies of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, the most strategic since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Suddenly, countries are scrambling to get their hands on molecules that provide reliable baseload power to industries and homes.

That explains why Germany is buying LNG from Canada. It’s to ensure long-term energy security, reduce reliance on volatile global supplies, and diversify away from Middle Eastern and Russian energy markets.

At the end of May, the Canadian government brokered a deal between the Ksi Lisims LNG facility planned for north of Prince Rupert, on the British Columbia coast, and German company SEFE, which is agreeing to buy 1 million tonnes of LNG per year for up to 20 years

Ksi Lisims LNG is a joint venture owned by the Nisga’a Nation, Texas-based Western LNG, and Rockies LNG, a consortium of Canadian natural gas producers.

The agreement marked the first long-term LNG supply arrangement between a Canadian project and a European buyer.

On June 8, a second, preliminary deal was announced. Germany’s Uniper signed a letter of intent with Ksi Lisims LNG for a possible offtake agreement of 2 million tonnes of LNG per year.

Construction of the facility, which has an annual capacity of 12 million tonnes, could begin in 2027, although there some significant hurdles to overcome.

First and foremost is a Final Investment Decision. To get an FID across the line, Ksi Lisims must show there is enough demand to start construction. The JV already has binding offtake agreements with Shell (NYSE:SHEL) and TotalEnergies. With SEFE and Uniper, up to 7 million tonnes have been annually committed. Will that be enough, and will the facility be profitable in a future LNG market? Ksi Lisims must decide.

The $10 billion project is also facing political and legal challenges about the environmental impacts increased gas production and shipping will have on the area:

Two B.C. Supreme Court petitions were filed over the provincial government's decision last year to deem the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission pipeline "substantially started," meaning it wouldn't need a new environmental assessment.

The liquefied natural gas pipeline's construction, which was authorized in 2014, and a deadline to start it was extended to 2024, spurring the court challenges from Gitxsan Hereditary Chief Charlie Wright and environmentalist groups opposed to the project.

Construction started in 2024 but the pipeline is not yet finished.

These are all significant obstacles, but the bigger question is how Ksi Lisims would get the LNG from the Canadian West Coast to Germany.

Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre has said the better option would be to ship it from the east coast. But there are currently no operational LNG export plants on that side of Canada; only an import and peaking facility in New Brunswick owned by Repsol.

The only large-scale LNG facility in operation is LNG Canada in Kitimat, close to the proposed Ksi Lisims plant. The first phase of LNG Canada was finished in 2025; a year ago it loaded its first export cargo.

When asked why Ottawa wouldn’t pipe LNG across the country, then ship it directly across the Atlantic to Germany, the energy minister said it's cheaper to move the product by water — through the Panama Canal — than it is to pay tolls through a pipeline.

In practice, Germany may never receive LNG directly from Ksi Lisims, despite the project signing two separate offtake agreements.

Instead, the German companies could employ a concept that is becoming increasingly common in LNG markets: cargo swaps

Here’s how it works:

Instead of purchasing the LNG and physically delivering it to Germany, the companies would purchase the cargo and redirect it to buyers in Japan, South Kora, Taiwan or other Asian markets. In exchange, the companies would receive LNG from suppliers closer to Europe, like the US, Qatar, Algeria or Norway.

The result, says EnergyNow via the Financial Post, is lower shipping costs, shorter transit times, reduced congestion risk, and greater flexibility while maintaining the same overall gas supply balance.

This is already how major LNG portfolio players such as Shell, TotalEnergies, BP, and SEFE manage global supply chains. LNG contracts increasingly represent access to molecules rather than a commitment to move specific molecules from one point to another.

In the end, “the molecule doesn’t matter as much as the contract.”

A Canadian LNG contract provides supply from a stable democracy, reduced exposure to political disruptions, diversification from a single supplier, and long-term contractual security, states EnergyNow.

Reuters previously reported that German buyers are increasingly interested in acquiring Canadian LNG cargoes specifically because they can be swapped within global markets. Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson noted that European buyers see value in holding Canadian LNG positions even if the fuel is ultimately consumed elsewhere.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 05:00