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New Clues In Apple's iOS 27 Hints At Upcoming Foldable iPhone Launch

Software researcher M1Astra shared with Bloomberg new clues embedded deep within Apple's iOS 27 developer beta that suggest the long-awaited foldable iPhone remains on track for a September debut, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup.

"Apple's iOS 27 and related software updates offer the clearest public signs yet of the company's upcoming foldable iPhone, revealing references to folding hardware and new features designed for larger, more flexible displays," Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman wrote on X, refering to M1Astra's findings that show within iOS 27 developer beta, there are code strings related to determining whether a device is folded or unfolded.

also a new MG key to get the total count of built-in displays pic.twitter.com/0uhik5DWRO

— sam henri gold (@samhenrigold) June 8, 2026

Files inside the first iOS 27 developer beta include references to "foldState," "mechanicalAngleDegrees," and "angleDegrees," suggesting the iOS can detect whether a device is folded, unfolded, or partially opened around a hinge. Other repair-related code mentions a secondary display, a second cover glass, and additional light sensors.

New in macOS 27:

You can now resize iPhone mirroring to look like an iPad display pic.twitter.com/8rVy7aTCYd

— Aaron (@aaronp613) June 8, 2026

The clues come as Bloomberg previously reported that the foldable iPhone remains on track for a September launch alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup, with pricing expected to start around $2,000. This would be the most important iPhone design shift in the nearly 20-year-old iPhone lineup.

However, Apple is late to the game. The first available foldable smartphone with a flexible display was the Royole FlexPai, announced in October 2018 and shipped in December 2018. By early 2019, Samsung had released the Galaxy Fold, and other brands were launching their foldable models.

On Monday, Apple unveiled Siri AI and the next generation of Apple Intelligence during its Worldwide Developers Conference.

Our coverage:

• Apple's Long-Awaited AI Siri Fails To Impress As Shares Pump Then Dump During WWDC

Goldman analyst Michael Ng has provided clients with the key takeaways from WWDC:

We attended AAPL's WWDC keynote and investor event at Apple Park in Cupertino, CA on June 8th, where the company announced key features for iOS 27, Apple Intelligence, and Siri AI. AAPL was down 1% on the day, in line with AAPL's average day-of WWDC performance, with announcements around Apple Intelligence & Siri AI largely in line with expectations. We viewed the announcements as positive with visibility into Siri AI timing, confidence in the completeness of features, and early signs of monetization through iCloud+ subscriptions and product refresh.

First, Siri AI will be available in beta this fall in English. The keynote and follow-up presentations that we attended were notable in that Siri AI demonstrations all appeared to be utilizing real features (e.g., the presentation we attended included a live demo), suggesting to us that Siri AI features are largely complete and likely will hit key timelines. Second, rate limits should drive monetization opportunities. Some features, including image generation, have daily usage limits because they rely on powerful server models. Users will be able to get increased access through most iCloud+ subscription plans, which should drive direct monetization for Apple Intelligence. Third, the most advanced AI features announced today will require 12GB memory, driving a refresh opportunity. Features including expressive voices and more advanced dictation will require 12GB memory which is included in iPhone Air, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, iPad (M4), and select Mac (M3). We think that will help drive a multi-year product refresh cycle, particularly as AI features continue to improve and demand compounds.

Over time, we view that continued iteration of integrated AI feature releases should (a) support longer-term demand for product offerings via installed base growth and (b) support longer-term Services growth via monetization of new first-party and third-party apps as well as greater iCloud storage demand with greater personal data & content created with AI features.

1. Siri AI & iOS 27 Fall 2026 launch details: iOS 27 will be available in the fall for iPhone 11 and later, with Apple Intelligence available for iPhones 15 Pro/Pro Max and later. Siri AI will be available in beta later this year for users with devices set to English, with support for additional languages expanding over time. Apple noted that Siri AI availability for iOS 27 & iPadOS27 will be delayed in the EU due to the Digital Markets App (DMA). Additionally, Siri AI & other new Apple Intelligence features should be delayed in China as Apple works through regulatory requirements. Separately, AAPL's most powerful on-device AI model and its features (e.g., expressive Siri AI voice, advanced dictation) will be only be available for devices with at least 12 GB of unified memory including the iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max, iPhone Air, iPads M4 & later, and Macs M3 or later.

2. Siri AI features in line with expectations: First, Siri AI will have greater personal context awareness as it draws from on-screen and historical personal data across first-party apps (e.g., Photos, Messages, Mail, Music), third party apps, the web, and Visual Intelligence (via device camera) to inform its answers & action execution for queries & requests. Second, Siri AI will allow users to personalize Siri's voice for pace, as well as expressivity (for devices with at least 12 GB of unified memory). Third, Siri AI will have a dedicated app from which users can recall and continue prior conversations. Fourth, Apple demonstrated Siri AI's ability to engage across a user's complete device ecosystem (e.g., Visual Intelligence identifying nutrition facts for food captured on-camera, splitting bills via receipts, creating an event from a flyer to the Calendar app, identifying the location of a photo posted on social media).

3. New Apple Intelligence features for iOS27 announced, also as expected per our WWDC preview: First, Safari will use Apple Intelligence to (a) create tab groups by topic, (b) monitor and set alerts for changes on internet pages a user wants to track, and (c) create custom extensions via description. Second, Apple Intelligence will introduce suggested actions across apps (e.g., add details from Messages to Reminders, updating meeting details on calendar invite by event description). Third, Apple Intelligence will introduce new photo editing features including (a) the Extend tool (to expand images) and (b) the Reframe tool (to shift the perspective of the camera.

4. Platform improvements to personalize design and improve performance. First, iOS 27 will allow users to adjust the strength of the Liquid Glass display (ultra clear to fully tinted). Second, through improved CPU scheduling, iOS 27 should improve performance across Apple products (e.g,. Apps launching more quickly, faster AirDrop, more seamless transitions from cellular to WiFi networks). Third, users will be able to include Android users within iCloud Shared albums.

Apple shares on Monday wiped out any gains and closed down 1%, in line with the stock's average WWDC-day performance over the years. Shares are lower in cash on Tuesday.

Professional subscribers can read the full Apple WWDC note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 13:20

China's Oil Imports Plummet To Eight-Year Low

Confirming our recent reporting on China's oil demand collapse, crude oil imports to China in May fell to their lowest since October 2017 because of the price spike resulting from the Persian Gulf tanker traffic disruption, plunging refinery margins (due to price ceilings imposed by Beijing), of a slowing economy and the rapid slowdown in the economy. 

The May total stood at 33 million barrels, or 7.8 million barrels daily, Bloomberg reported, citing Chinese customs data. This is roughly a 30% drop vs the average daily import rate of 11.6 million barrels last year. As previously noted, refinery run rates are down as well, as are fuel exports, with Beijing careful to make sure there is enough diesel and gasoline for the domestic market. All this is happening as the latest batch of Chinese data was "shockingly bad", promptly fears of a China hard landing.

As OilPrice notes, the news will likely push oil prices lower as China’s reduced appetite for imported crude is widely seen by traders as a cap on international prices. Demand for oil in China, however, has not fallen particularly. The only reason the country’s refiners can afford to slash imports is the substantial inventory cushion available, estimated at over 1 billion barrels, which we said three months ago is the biggest wildcard in the Iran war oil price shock. However, this cushion is not infinite and, as suggested recently by analysts, China will at some point start to ramp up imports.

One relevant question: what is China's pace of SPR drain if any. Recall for the past year Beijing was adding about 500-700K in daily SPR stockpiles; total is said to be ~1.4 billion barrels. China can avoid any Gulf imports for months and drain its SPR instead.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 18, 2026

China’s subdued oil buying from abroad “represents one of the largest offsets to the shock, second only to Saudi rerouting flows and larger than coordinated SPR releases from the U.S., Europe, and Japan,” Societe Generale commodity analysts said earlier this week. However, strategic and commercial oil inventories need replenishing at some point, and when that point is reached and the war is still not over, we are likely to see higher oil prices again. In its lenghty weekly note, JPM commodity analysts agreed.

ING commodity analysts made a similar point last week. “Sizeable inventories in the lead-up to the war have provided a buffer for the market,” Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote on Friday. “This buffer is shrinking with every passing day. With the seasonally stronger summer still ahead of us, we could see demand grow by more than 3m b/d quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. The pace of inventory declines will only intensify through the July-September period.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 12:40

Professors Behind California's Wealth Tax Threaten Possible Legal Action Against Critic

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

There is an interesting controversy brewing in California after four California university professors threatened a political candidate, Richard Lucas, for criticizing them for their roles in the "Billionaire Tax" and sent him a "cease and desist" letter.

David Gamage from the University of Missouri, Brian Galle and Emmanuel Saez from UC Berkeley, and Darien Shanske from UC Davis claimed that the public criticism violated anti-doxxing laws by sharing contact information. They are clearly wrong. One of the aggrieved professors, Brian Galle, teaches at Berkeley Law School called Lucas "a clown," but insisted that sharing public information is unlawful.

Attorney Catha Worthman sent the letter, but has reportedly refused to respond to inquiries after attorneys for the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) pushed back on her legal claims and those of her clients.

I have long been a critic of such wealth taxes, specifically California's Billionaire Tax, as economically moronic and legally questionable. The proposal has already cost the state trillions in lost wealth as wealthy taxpayers have fled, taking their businesses and jobs with them.

As I discuss in Rage and the Republic, these wealth taxes have a terrible track record and, on the federal level, face serious constitutional challenges. In California, the drafters included a retroactive clause that can also be challenged.

One of the four professors - who Lucas referred to as "the looter dream team" - destroyed the claims of many supporters that this is just a one-time tax. Some of us have written that this is simply the first salvo. Once they succeed in targeting billionaires, the same measure will likely be used for those in lower tax brackets.

In a recent debate, Berkeley professor Emmanuel Saez admitted that he could not seriously claim this would be a one-time tax, as many in the public have asserted. He said they would have to wait to see if it passes, but it is likely to be repeated, and noted that there may also be a federal wealth tax on the way.

He said:

"I don't think it's going to be a one-time tax...because you can't surprise billionaires more than once.

Even then, you know, maybe some of them were expecting something like this.

So it's going to be a debate about this time, you know, a permanent wealth tax at a low rate that's going to last for a number of years."

Saez has publicly taunted the wealthy who are fleeing the state:

He noted the move on the left to create a federal wealth tax which has been pushed by Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna.

The legislation, "Make Billionaires Pay Their Fair Share Act," echoes the growing "eat-the-rich" mantra on the left - seeking to replicate a disastrous push in California that has led to an exodus from that state and an estimated loss of $2 trillion in taxable assets.

It is also flagrantly unconstitutional.

Under the plan, Congress would target 938 billionaires to tap them for $4.4 trillion. That money would then be redistributed as a $3,000 direct payment to every man, woman, and child in a household making $150,000 or less - $12,000 for a family of four.

Now back to the legal threat. I believe that the threatened legal action is wildly off base. Putting aside the fact that this is protected speech, the two anti-doxing statutes, Penal Code §653.2(a) and Civil Code §1708.89, contain clear scienter or intent requirements.

They must show that Lucas demonstrated an "intent to place another person in reasonable fear for their safety, or the safety of the other person's immediate family." Penal Code §653.2(a); Civil Code §1708.89. There is no evidence of such intent. If simply posting such identifying information is a violation, a significant range of protected speech would be proscribed.

There are ample reasons to criticize this tax and the claims made by its champions. There is a type of self-sustaining pattern on the left in support of such measures. Universities have largely purged conservatives and libertarians from departments, leaving most faculties with professors who run exclusively from the left to the far left.

These professors then added intellectual support for radical proposals like wealth taxes. The media then reports that experts have reviewed and approved the measures. It becomes an entirely closed loop from political groups to academics to media creating a uniform narrative.

The ADF wrote a strong letter pointing out the flaws in the claims of these professors under anti-doxxing laws from the lack of intent to the protection of free speech. These professors became public advocates for this ill-conceived plan and, as a result, have drawn criticism for that advocacy.

Lucas was one of those critics:

First they say the billionaire tax is one time. Now the main architect is already talking about making it permanent.

— Richard Lucas (@dickclucas) May 10, 2026

Nevertheless, the professors sent two cease and desist letters to Lucas, requesting that he remove their names and contact information from his website "California Wealth Exodus." Lucas has remained adamant that he will not remove their contact information.

The site for figures like Galle link to his academic page, as I have done above. We routinely link to such sites for people to look at the background of figures discussed in columns. In the case of Lucas, it is also meant to allow citizens to express their views to those pushing this proposal.

In my view, the threat of legal action is fundamentally flawed and would not prevail in the courts. These professors will need to respond to their critics rather than work to silence them.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 12:20

Jefferies: "Turns Out, We Weren't Bullish Enough On Copper"

"Turns out, we weren't bullish enough on copper," Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina wrote in a note to clients, marking a notable shift from one of Wall Street's most seasoned metal voices. LaFemina joined Jefferies in 2011 after more than a decade covering metals and mining at Lehman Brothers and Barclays, lending weight to his view that the explosive growth in AI data center buildouts, power grid and infrastructure upgrades (a theme he calls "powering up America"), and tight supply are creating structurally higher prices for copper.

LaFemina raised his 2030 target and now expects copper to average $8 per pound, or $17,636 a ton. COMEX copper last traded around $6.34 a pound, while LME copper was near $13,583 a ton.

On a longer timeframe, the LME copper chart suggests the $10,000 level was the breakout zone, further supporting LaFemina's 2030 target given the current supply-tightening backdrop.

"Turns out, we weren't bullish enough on copper," LaFemina said, adding, "We now have the highest copper price forecast on the Street as we see strong US industrial demand and still tight supply."

He noted that the data center and power infrastructure buildout should drive a meaningful acceleration in metals demand, with copper and aluminum prices able to rise much higher before weighing on the broader economy.

Goldman recently estimated that AI capital expenditures by hyperscalers will soar to $800 billion this year. The report can be found here.

In recent weeks, Goldman raised its year-end copper price target, and HSBC warned (report found here) that commodities face a "super-squeeze."

HSBC analysts told clients last week that "metal prices are generally in an upswing, driven by supply disruptions for some commodities due to the Middle East conflict and strong structural demand."

Separately, Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham explained that one of the core issues with the copper market right now is supply:

• Year-to-date data does suggest that supply recovery from previous disruption events has trailed our expectations. Accordingly, we lower our 2026 global mine supply forecast by 350kt, equivalent to ~1.5% of global mine supply, including ~200kt less from Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC) combined, with neither returning to full capacity until 2028.

At the same time, Waltham said stronger-than-expected U.S. copper imports in the first half of 2026 are tightening the ex-U.S. market:

• Furthermore, US copper imports in H1 2026 have exceeded our previous forecast, tightening the ex-US balance. As a result, we now expect US inventory to build by 900kt in 2026 (vs. 550kt previously), even as our base case remains that no copper tariff will be announced this year.

The combination of soft mine supply, U.S. stockpiling, tariff uncertainty, and long-term demand tied to AI buildout and grid-upgrade themes prompted Waltham to upgrade her end-of-year 2026 and 2027 copper price forecasts:

• We raise our end-2026/average 2027 LME copper forecasts to $13,735/$13,800 from $12,465/$12,150 previously (vs. forwards at $13,630/$13,610).

She outlined three price scenarios for copper:

1. Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed for Longer: While we would expect limited impact on the global copper balance as the demand hit from lower economic growth is largely offset by lower copper supply due to sulfur shortages, a substantial pullback in global risk appetite could push the LME price down to its fundamental support level at ~$12,600 in H2 2026, before resuming an upward trend.

2. US Copper Tariff Announced for January 2027: If a US copper tariff is announced prospectively in June 2026, to start in January 2027, we would expect US copper imports to accelerate in H2 2026 (vs. our base case of a slowdown in imports), tightening the ex-US balance and raising prices to over $14,000 in H2 2026. However, we would expect prices to retreat in 2027 as imports stop once the tariff is imposed.

3. Announcement of No Copper Tariff: A definitive decision against the tariff would reduce the size of our ex-US deficit forecast in 2026 and push the ex-US market back into surplus in 2027 as imports fall to a negligible level. In this scenario, we would expect the price to fall to an average of $12,800/t in 2027.

View scenarios here:

Beyond Jefferies, HSBC, and Goldman, JPMorgan analysts have also told clients that the copper upcycle is being driven by a tightening supply backdrop, accelerating power-grid investment, AI data center demand, and broader industrial electrification. Taken together, some of Wall Street's top metals desks are increasingly converging on the view that copper is entering a structurally tighter supply regime that will support a sustained break above $14,000 a ton on the LME.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 12:00

Trump Insists US In 'Final Throes' Of Iran Deal; Death Toll Soars As Israel Pounds South Lebanon

The southern Lebanese city of Tyre is being pounded by Israeli airstrikes on Tuesday, despite President Trump's insistence that Lebanon not come under attack. Israel's military had hours prior issued an evacuation order for all civilians in the area, amid the unraveling and failing ceasefire.

Casualties are already high, coming at a tense moment after starting on Sunday Iran sent ballistic missiles against Israel over its renewed airstrikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut, where it says Hezbollah command centers are located.

The NY Times reports of the growing death toll Tuesday, "At least eight people were killed in the bombardment, and dozens more were wounded, Lebanon’s health ministry said. The Israeli military also targeted towns and villages across southern Lebanon, including areas that were not covered by evacuation warnings, according to the country’s state-run news agency."

Attack on Tyre, via AFP

So clearly the air raids are expanding, per the report, even after the latest Trump warnings directed at Netanyahu to not do anything that would sabotage a broader Iran peace agreement.

President Trump is still maintaining that Washington and Tehran are in the "final throes" of cementing a deal, and is even suggesting (once again) that an agreement will be done in days:

Asked whether it would be matter of days or weeks, he said it would take “two or three days”.

Tehran has repeatedly stated any deal should include Lebanon—where Israel has been pressing its war with Iran-backed Hezbollah—and fired missiles at Israel on Sunday. That prompted Israeli retaliation, despite US pressure for restraint.

Iran fired another salvo before announcing it was ceasing military action, and hours later Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the “fire on that front is contained”.

Of course, we've been hearing that the war is merely 'days' away from ending from basically the start of the war. And yet, all too predictably, the two sides keep going up the escalation ladder in an escalation trap.

But the White House is saying that it will forge a deal which is good for the American people, whether Israel likes it or not. "Israel may like that, they may not like that — but this is in the best interest of the United States," Vice President JD Vance spelled out to Fox this week.

Escalation: Houthis in Yemen unleash ballistic missile on southern Israel, as Hezbollah sends drones on north...

⚡️Interception in Eilat pic.twitter.com/uUsV3O70VE

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 8, 2026

But in the meantime Lebanon continues to suffer, also as Hezbollah and most recently the Houthis out of Yemen fire projectiles on Israel. According to some of the latest via Al Jazeera:

For the residents in Tyre, anybody who is staying behind is in a lot of danger. In the past hour, we’ve seen another Israeli air strike near a Palestinian refugee camp.

The strike happened at a roundabout leading into the camp, a very busy location. There’s also a bus station right at the entrance to the el-Buss refugee camp. Initial reports are coming in of a lot of injuries in that attack.

Israel continues to carry out artillery fire on the city, and there are drones flying over Tyre. For anyone trying to get out of the city, the road is quite dangerous. There have been a series of air strikes north of Tyre along the same road people would use to exit.

So the Lebanon conflict is escalating, not growing more stable, which doesn't bode well for achieving a final Iran deal. Tehran has insisted all along that a deal incorporate the Israel-Lebanon situation. 

Reporter: Did you ask Netanyahu not to hit back?

Trump: No. I said do what's right but I want you to stop as quickly as you can. Because they have to stop. It has to do with Lebanon. And it has to stop. We want to get it finished. pic.twitter.com/lnnstEPFA2

— Acyn (@Acyn) June 9, 2026

Vance had also said in his latest comments to Fox that "I think where the president has been very clear here is that while Israel obviously has some objectives that it has, the United States' main objective in Iran is to ensure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon."

It seems Washington is willing to tolerate some Israeli 'counter-terror' action, but only up to a point. Probably the limits will be reached in more renewed bombings of Beirut itself. Tehran has been seeking to impose some red liens on IDF action in Lebanon, and the White House has so far appeared to respond with compromising language.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 11:55

Voter Fraud: Los Angeles County Woman Pleads Guilty To Paying People In Skid Row To Vote

via The Epoch Times,

LOS ANGELES - A woman who worked as a longtime signature collector for ballot initiatives pleaded guilty on June 8 to paying homeless people in Los Angeles' Skid Row and elsewhere $2 or $3 to register to vote.

An "I Voted" sign points to a Vote Center in Los Angeles on June 1, 2026. Mario Tama/Getty Images

Brenda Lee Brown Armstrong, 64, of Marina del Rey, also known as "Anika," entered a plea to one count of paying another person to register to vote, a federal charge that carries a penalty of up to five years behind bars.

Sentencing was scheduled for Aug. 31.

According to her plea agreement, for nearly 20 years, Armstrong periodically worked as a "petition circulator." In that role, she was paid by coordinators to collect voter signatures on official petitions that qualify initiatives, referendums and recalls for California state ballots. Prosecutors said Armstrong drove around the Los Angeles area to find registered voters to sign the petitions.

After gathering enough signatures, Armstrong returned the petitions to her coordinators, who then paid her a set amount for each registered voter's signature. The amount she was paid varied depending on the specific ballot initiative. Because her coordinators only paid for signatures attributable to registered voters, Armstrong endeavored to ensure the people who signed her petitions were registered voters, court papers show.

Armstrong admitted soliciting signatures in Skid Row, a convenient place for the defendant to collect signatures because of its high concentration of people in a relatively small area who were willing to sign petitions in exchange for cash.

Armstrong regularly paid amounts between $2 and $3 to induce people to sign her petitions, officials said.

Prosecutors said some homeless people did not have an address to put on the forms, so on occasion, Armstrong provided her own former address in Los Angeles to write on the registration form. Such registration forms simultaneously registered an individual to vote in California elections and in federal elections.

"This is not an allegation, this is not a theory, this is an example of admitted voter fraud," First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said when Armstrong was charged. "We're going to aggressively prosecute voter fraud."

A video shot by conservative media figure James O'Keefe and reposted by an account called "Real America's Voice" showed a woman handing cash to a homeless person. In a post on social media, O'Keefe said his video led to Armstrong being charged.

Essayli said on June 5 that his office has "multiple" probes underway into alleged voting fraud. While declining to provide any specifics, he pointed to the Armstrong case as an example of the sort of thing he is investigating.

"Yes, there is evidence of election fraud in California," he said.

The comments came one day after President Donald Trump publicly accused Democrats of engaging in election fraud in California, pointing to the legally established mail-in voting process.

Essayli also said his office is working with Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon in an effort to audit the state's voter rolls.

Essayli said previously that Armstrong's arrest coincided with arguments in the Department of Justice's (DOJ) appeal of the dismissal of a lawsuit over voter registration records.

The DOJ sued California Secretary of State Shirley Weber last year, demanding the state hand over the unredacted voter file, which includes registered voters' full names, residential addresses, driver's license numbers, and the last four digits of their Social Security numbers.

The DOJ claimed it had the right to access the data under powers granted by the Civil Rights Act of 1960, the Help America Vote Act, and the National Voter Registration Act.

In January, a Santa Ana federal judge dismissed the case after finding that the DOJ's request for the information violates federal privacy laws. The defense also argued that the Trump administration wants to use the data to help enforce its immigration policy.

Brenda Lee Brown Armstrong Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 11:40

Flesh-Eating Cattle Screwworm Spreads Beyond Texas As USDA Accelerates Eradication Push

The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed three more New World screwworm (NWS) cases, bringing total detections to five and heightening concerns that the flesh-eating pest, once eradicated in the 1960s, could threaten the nation's already strained cattle industry.

The latest NWS cases include three calves and a goat in Texas, along with a small dog in Lea County, New Mexico, marking the first confirmed case in that state, according to the USDA. The dog had not traveled to Mexico or Texas, prompting authorities to investigate the surrounding property for fly larvae that feed on living flesh rather than dead material.

"Over the past week, USDA has identified and expeditiously confronted four confirmed detections of NWS. While we address these instances that require immediate attention, and continue to sample suspected cases, we are simultaneously working to eradicate the pest entirely," Dudley Hoskins, the USDA's marketing and regulatory undersecretary, said in a statement. 

The first NWS cases were discovered last week in calves a few miles apart in South Texas:

• Flesh-Eating Screwworm Detected In Texas, Threatening Already-Strained U.S. Cattle Herd

The second case:

• Second Flesh-Eating Screwworm Case Raises Beef Supply Fears As Goldman Warns Outbreak "Could Be Disruptive"

Cases were announced Monday in a calf in La Salle County, southwest of San Antonio, and in a goat in Gillespie County, west of Austin.

RELEASE: USDA Confirms Two Additional Cases of New World Screwworm in the United States

A calf in La Salle County, TX and a dog in Andrews County, TX.https://t.co/nzWMQzDHjU

— New World Screwworm Rapid Response (@Screwworm_RR) June 8, 2026

University of Florida entomologist Edward Burgess told AP News that new NWS cases may emerge in the coming days and weeks, but that does not necessarily mean the pest is spreading.

"When that first case is seen, everyone is being vigilant and their eyes are on it more intensely," Burgess said. "And when you are looking for something, you are more likely to see it."

Well...

USDA TO TRIAL IVERMECTIN IN FEED TO CONTROL SCREWWORM IN WILD

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 8, 2026

IVERMECTIN KILLS NEW WORLD SCREWWORMS IN BOTH HUMANS AND ANIMALS

LIVESTOCK: 12 studies found 97%+ prevention of New World screwworm infestation in cattle wounds

HUMANS: Documented complete larval elimination in severe oral and eye socket infestations

"Horse paste” wins again. https://t.co/daZg7wgaim pic.twitter.com/3v1SnvoJMx

— Nicolas Hulscher, MPH (@NicHulscher) June 8, 2026

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins explained on Monday the USDA's "War on Screwworm" plan to eradicate NWS. 

🧵 Sec. Rollins outlines @USDA’s aggressive response to New World Screwworm:

USDA is rapidly expanding sterile fly production and dispersal capacity, a core pillar of the federal eradication strategy.

A dispersal facility in South Texas was launched last year, and tens of… pic.twitter.com/g998W7fy78

— New World Screwworm Rapid Response (@Screwworm_RR) June 8, 2026

The rising number of NWS cases in the U.S. poses a threat to the nation's cattle herd if the spread runs rampant, especially with herd size already at a 75-year low, beef prices at record highs …

…and meatpackers under pressure from fewer and more expensive animals. We recommend that readers review the note from Goldman analyst Thiago Bortoluci on NWS.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 11:20

Gold & Silver: From Pullback To Perfect Setup

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

With gold and silver having fallen by greater than 20% from their January highs of 2026, some have argued the gold trade is over. In fact, and as explained below, it is only just beginning.

Trading vs. Investing

Such misunderstandings are nothing new, as the difference between precious metal trading and precious metal investing is nothing new.

Nor is there anything new about top-down misinformation and misdirection given to Main Street when it comes to understanding gold and silver.

Traders, both skilled and unskilled, tend to track near-term signals for immediate rates of return (long or short) while longer-term investors typically watch history, debt cycles and currency debasement with patient detachment and a steady eye toward wealth preservation.

Such patience has served the longer-term, wealth-preservation-focused investors with greater returns (and calm) through periods of headline flux and geopolitical gyrations.

Since 2000, gold has outperformed the S&P, and when compared against the major global paper currencies (down 94% since 2000), gold (up 1580% since 2000) has demonstrably outperformed fiat “money.”

Longer-term investors see this larger picture and trend.

They don’t book losses in pullbacks because they understand the greater direction of the precious metal ball in a debt-saturated and hence currency-debasement playing field.

Comfort in Historical Fundamentals

In short, the fundamentals of history, economics and hence currency debasement confirm a clear pattern by desperately broke(n) nations to inflate their way out of debt at the expense of their currencies.

This makes the longer, anti-fiat direction for gold and silver almost too obvious, even in times of inevitable price retracements in the metals.

Historical cycles and longer-term calm, however, are easily forgotten or ignored in times of crisis. Investors somehow think “this time is different,” or, even worse, they don’t think about history at all.

Patterns: From Crisis to Gold Highs

But for those looking for signals, as well as sanity confirmation, it’s worth remembering that in every prior geopolitical and/or oil crisis (the OPEC embargo of 73, the Iranian Revolution of 79, the Gulf War of 91, the 9-11 disaster of 2001 or, more recently, the Ukraine/Russia crisis of 2022) there are clear patterns eerily similar to the current crisis surrounding the Iranian “conflict.”

Specifically, we are living within a template by which a geopolitical crisis sends the oil price up, which is followed by a rise in “inflation expectations,” which in turn means central banks like the Fed can’t cut rates, and soon thereafter the market, rather than central bankers, sets the rates.

This explains why yields on the US 10Y Treasury Bond (the true cost of Uncle Sam’s hideous bar tab) have risen by 75 basis points despite no active rate hikes by a Fed which couldn’t afford rate hikes even if they wanted them.

In this same template, as yields rise, investors typically follow the street’s traditional (yet now grossly mistaken) view that a yielding bond (from a broke issuer) is still better than a yield-less bar of gold.

What typically follows is a herd-like move to bonds whose “positive” nominal yields are measured in increasingly debased currencies and negative real returns when measured against actual rather than mis-reported inflation.

The ironies do abound…

But what fifty years of crisis patterns have also told us—at least for those paying attention—is that gold tends to drop early in every crisis only to then recover at newer all-time-highs as the crisis plays out.

During the 1973 OPEC embargo, for example, gold would dip and then participate in an historical, 4-digit upside in the seven years that followed.

After a temporary retracement during the 1979 Iranian Revolution, gold rose by 90% in one year, and saw double-digit upside within weeks of the 1991 Gulf War.

We saw similar dip-to-high surges in gold following the 9-11 tragedy. And as for the 2022 fiasco in Ukraine, gold broke 2000 not long after the crisis grew from threat to now ongoing reality.

Patterns in Moving Averages

But for those who still feel that history is no guide to future rhyming patterns, let us give equal respect to some of the key technical signals for the metals.

In fact, these signals—most notably from the 200-day moving averages in gold and silver—are themselves just historical signals of a different flavor.

More importantly, they are indicators which signal a rare opportunity in a time of crisis.

Looking at both gold and silver, for example, each metal has fallen below its 200-day moving average.

This is a powerfully bullish rather than bearish signpost.

Silver Signals

The last time silver fell below this average was in April of 2025, just before the metal, then trading at $27, ripped north at historical multiples and new highs.

Prior to 2025, we saw similar bullish signals beneath silver’s 200-day line in 2020 (when silver was at $11) and in 2022 (when silver was at $17).

Gold Signals

Equally bullish technical signals are ringing from gold’s recent dip beneath its 200-day moving average.

The last times we saw gold below this line it was trading in the $1500-$1600 range (2022) or the $1800 range (autumn of 2023). Thereafter, gold went 100% north 12 months out.

From Pullback to Historical Set-Up

Taken together, these fundamental as well as technical signals combine within a current as well as historical context which makes the current pullback in the metals a near perfect set-up rather than break-up for gold and silver.

In fact, current conditions for the precious metals in 2026 are even more favorable than the prior patterns of the 1970’s discussed above.

In 1973, for example, U.S. public debt was in the $500B, not $39T, range. Today, interest expense alone on American IOUs is twice the size of total US public debt in 1973.

Think about that for a second. At debt this high and unsustainable, the debasement trade is no longer a meme; it’s a fat pitch.

The Structural Bid Few Understand

In the 1970’s, moreover, central banks around the world were selling gold. As of this writing, and despite recent forced gold sales out of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, central banks (from Poland to Asia) are net-buyers of gold.

In fact, since the USA weaponized the world reserve currency in 2022, central bank gold purchasing has increased by 5X.

These signals from the world’s central banks are screaming signposts of a structural bid in the metals which most retail investors (who were spooked out of the trade at lows after buying at tops) are tragically missing.

Even the commercial banks have understood the patterns for gold after an oil crisis, and their price targets for the metal remain nearly twice current price levels.

Thus, whether drawing from historical patterns or from moving-day-average signals, the question going forward is simple: Do you trust King Dollar or a “pet rock”? Crowns of gold or crowns of paper?

Time will tell, and time is clearly on the side of precious metals.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 10:50

Trump's Economic Shield Cracks As Gas Prices And Iran Standoff Threaten Midterm Fortunes

As we continue to 'enjoy' expensive gas across the country thanks to a broken campaign promise not to start new wars, President Donald Trump enters the 2026 midterm campaign with an unfamiliar vulnerability: voters are feeling the pain.

High gasoline prices, fueled by the prolonged U.S. military confrontation with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have turned inflation into a daily political problem for the White House. Trump's approval ratings have fallen near the lowest point of either of his presidential terms, with especially sharp declines in approval over the economy - long one of his strongest political defenses. Public frustration over affordability, a concern that helped return him to the White House, has not eased.

Source: RealClearPolitics

The White House, meanwhile, is touting tax refunds delivered under last year's legislation, and the administration's promise of abundant domestic energy. But those messages have been overshadowed by the reality on Main St. 

"I think the president was being truthful when he said he really didn't care about the midterms," said Mick Mulvaney, former acting White House chief of staff. "But House and Senate Republicans do care. And if gas is still north of $4 by Labor Day, everybody in town knows that means trouble for the incumbent party. Big trouble."

Even if the Iran war ended tomorrow, some economists think that the damage already done to oil infrastructure - and the risks of renewed fighting, will keep upward pressure on prices. 

"We think that the drag on the economy due to the war will weigh heavily on household consumption among middle-class, working-class and the working poor ahead of the November congressional election," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.

Source: Bloomberg economist surveys. Note: Inflation = PCE price index.

Consumer sentiment has weakened across party lines, including among Republicans and independents. Inflation reached 3.8% in April, while grocery prices posted their largest increase in nearly four years. Inflation-adjusted hourly earnings declined for the first time in three years, and the personal savings rate fell to a multi-year low.

As we noted on Monday, Median inflation uncertainty, or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes, increased at the one-year and three-year-ahead horizons and decreased at the five-year-ahead horizon. 

What's Going Well

Unemployment is still low by historical standards, with employers adding 172,000 jobs in May, capping the strongest three-month hiring stretch in more than two years. Separately, the household survey showed native-born employment rising by 294,000 in May, while foreign-born employment fell by 176,000. (compare April to May, table A-7). Consumer spending has also held up, helped in part by larger tax refunds for many households.

Artificial intelligence investment - albeit a massive circle-jerk, continues to drive manufacturing expansion, producing the longest stretch of factory growth since 2022 and helping push stock markets to record highs. Trump frequently points to those gains as evidence that his economic program is working.

Broadcom is backstopping a massive $36 billion private credit SPV with Apollo and Blackstone which will help Anthropic buy Google chips made by Broadcom, even as Google is renting compute from SpaceX while Morgan Stanley, which is arranging the deal, lends money to investors https://t.co/nI7QCVNFTi

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 9, 2026

But the benefits have been uneven. The share of national income going to workers through wages and salaries sits at an all-time low, reinforcing concerns about a K-shaped recovery. Corporate profits and asset values have surged for higher-income Americans, while many families continue to feel squeezed by everyday costs.

"When moms and dads lie down to sleep at night and can't, one of the things they're most worried about is the cost of living," Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy told Bloomberg. "I think we have a good story to tell on what we've done... but I wish the president would talk more about it."

And here come Midterms...

Republicans hold a narrow House majority and face the historical headwind that typically confronts a president's party in midterm elections. Trump has warned that a Democratic House could pursue impeachment, as it did during his first term. The Senate majority appears more secure, but it could still be tested if economic frustration deepens in key states.

That said, Trump is hardly limping into the midterms. Recent Republican primaries have shown his grip on the GOP remains intact, from Trump-backed Ed Gallrein’s ouster of Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky, to Andy Barr’s win in the Kentucky Senate primary after Trump’s late endorsement, to Tommy Tuberville’s landslide in the Alabama governor primary. But primary dominance may not translate to general-election resilience, especially if independents and working-class swing voters are voting on gas prices, grocery bills, mortgage rates and war fatigue.

An idea: quickly end the war?

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 10:35

Will Saylor's Latest Bitcoin Buys "Hold The Line"

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Over the weekend, I posted a prediction on X after Strategy’s sale of 32 bitcoin helped tanked the market last week. I wrote:

“Prediction: Saylor just bought way more than 32 BTC and will disclose it to ‘prove’ it was just an experiment & everything is really fine. He looks clever for buying 10x what he sold 30% lower for 24-48 hours. Then, the market sticks it up his ass anyway and crashes to $40K.”

Lo and behold, Monday morning, we got the announcement:

Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our BTC Reserve to ₿845,256. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.0 billion.

To me, the headline isn’t really about 1,550 BTC. The headline is that Michael Saylor felt compelled to immediately reassert the bullish narrative after the controversy surrounding Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC.

For years, Saylor’s image has been built on a simple message: never sell. The moment that narrative cracked, even slightly, Bitcoin bears smelled blood.

I feel like this purchase is an attempt to restore confidence. Not confidence in Strategy’s balance sheet. Confidence in the bitcoin story. And if it was done by selling MSTR shares at a discount, does it not defeat the purpose of the company?

Peter Schiff immediately pointed out his take on the awkwardness of the situation:

“As damage control, @Saylor just announced $MSTR bought 1,550 BTC for $101 million while also increasing its U.S. dollar reserves by $100 million. If MSTR sold stock at a discount, that diluted Bitcoin per share. This doesn’t prove MSTR can sell Bitcoin, but that it can’t.”

Whether you agree with Schiff or not, he’s highlighting the exact issue Saylor is trying to address: perception.

The market now has a simple question in front of it. Did Saylor just successfully reassure everyone that nothing has changed? Or did he just spend $101 million trying to stop a narrative that is already spreading?

That’s why Bitcoin’s reaction from here matters far more than the purchase itself.

BTC is stabilizing around $63,000 now. If it can hold this area and grind higher, Saylor’s buy looks like a perfectly timed show of confidence. The story becomes: “See? The sale was nothing. The panic was overblown. Strategy bought more. Everything is fine.”

But if Bitcoin rolls over anyway? Then we can start talking about what happens when the proverbial turd meets the oscillating wind device.

If BTC is trading $40,000-$50,000 a few weeks from now, nobody will remember the press release. They’ll remember that Strategy possibly sold equity, bought Bitcoin at $65k, and failed to stop the market from falling.

🔥 80% Off If You Subscribe Today. This coupon allows for 80% off of annual subscriptions and results in a 85% savings over paying the monthly rate for a subscription to the blog. You keep the discounted rate for as long as you wish to remain a subscriber.: Get 80% off forever

And importantly, regardless of what happens, the buyer from this weekend is now out of the way again. The announcement creates a temporary psychological floor. Once the purchase is complete, however, the market loses that source of demand. The only thing left is whether organic buyers are willing to step in.

Meanwhile, equity futures are higher now on renewed ceasefire hopes. Risk assets are getting a tailwind this morning. If futures stay green and Bitcoin can’t rally, that’s notable. If futures reverse lower and Bitcoin follows them into the red, that could be an extremely ominous sign that the market, after Friday’s wreckage, has possibly put in a top.

If you ask me, this buy wasn’t really about acquiring another 1,550 BTC, it was about protecting the narrative that Bitcoin isn’t breaking down.

And now the market gets to decide whether that narrative still works. I’ve never been happier to be done actively trading and just sitting back and watching this freak show unfold like I’m watching Love Island or some other reality TV show trash.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

 

 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 10:20

US Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Jumped In May, Inventories Surge

With the Spring selling season in tatters, existing home sales were expected to rebound in May very modestly (+1.1% MoM) off recent record lows, but instead they outperformed, rising at 3.2% MoM (and April's 0.2% MoM rise was revised higher to a +0.7% MoM rise). That lifted existing home sales up 3.22% YoY - the strongest since September 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

That beat lifted existing home sales SAAR to its highest level of the year (but not exactly signaling a trend)...

Source: Bloomberg

“More Americans are on the move, with home sales rising to the highest level since December,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“This is great news for the housing market and the economy.”

Sellers are giving up some ground on price and “meeting buyers where they are,” Realtor.com said.

In May, the median sales price of an existing home climbed 1.3% from a year ago to $429,300, NAR data show.

Meantime, inventory rose slightly from a year ago to 1.55 million, the highest since July and representing 4.5 months of supply at the current sales pace.

Sales rose in the South, Northeast and Midwest from a month earlier, while they were unchanged in the West. In the Midwest, transactions reached 1 million, the highest pace since April 2023.

First-time buyers accounted for 35% of sales, compared with 33% a month earlier and 30% a year ago.

Finally, it appears home sales are catching up to the prior decline in mortgage rates (but we note that rates have been rising since)...

Source: Bloomberg

“Improving affordability is helping drive this momentum,” Yun said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 10:11

Trump-Netanyahu "Differences": A Good Cop-Bad Cop Routine

By Michael Every of Rabobank

As You Were... But As Who Was? 

Yesterday nearly saw a full restart of the Israel-Iran war, apparently pulled back from the brink by intervention from President Trump. After yet another Middle East rollercoaster for markets it’s now ‘as you were’, with oil --so everything else-- little changed. The larger issue behind that pricing, however, is the key question - ‘As who was?’

Iran set up its proxy network, centered on terror group Hezbollah in Lebanon, to protect itself: if Israel attacked it, Hezbollah would attack Israel. However, Tehran now has to attack Israel, with counterattacks on it in response, to defend its ‘shield’. That’s a huge Iranian strategic setback. As such, Tehran is trying to tie Israel vs. Hezbollah to itself vs. the US to divide the US from Israel, which now have different needs: a deal vs. finishing the job militarily or via regime change. That dynamic has huge implications for when and how this war ends, so for energy, so for markets.

While Israel and Iran say they will stop their attacks, Israeli PM Netanyahu last night gave a public address where he stated: “Iran and Hezbollah are weaker than ever, and we are stronger than ever – but our battle against them is still not finished. In the last 24 hours, Iran and Hezbollah tried to impose a new equation upon us… an equation I find intolerable and unacceptable. They thought they would fire at Israel from Lebanese territory and from Iran – and we would not act. That did not happen, and it will not happen. Not on my watch!... At the moment, we are holding our fire, because after we struck the terror regime in Tehran, it ceased attacking us. In the event that Iran makes the mistake of resuming attacks on us – we will respond with overwhelming force.”

Moreover, Israel will hit Hezbollah in Beirut if it fires at Israel from south Lebanon, which Iran says is a red line that will trigger more attacks on the Jewish state, restarting this war.

If Iran tells Hezbollah to ceasefire, markets can relax;

If not, and Israel hits Hezbollah, Iran has to decide if it wants to fire at Israel - and restart the war;

If Trump forces Israel to hold back vs. Hezbollah, Iran will have linked the two fronts and divided the US and Israel – which likely sees more war.

After all, Israel’s 1948 War of Independence, its 1967 Six-Day War, its 1981 attack on Iraq’s nuclear programme, and its 2007 strike against Syria’s nuclear programme all took place against US wishes. To expect otherwise this time is unwise. Indeed, Trump-Netanyahu differences could be a good cop-bad cop routine to allow the US to push for a deal while Israel does the fighting.

In the background, Yemen’s Houthis claim they will restart a maritime blockade of Israel in the Red Sea, which was applied far more broadly the last time they put it in place. Obviously, that can threaten cargo and energy flows at this juncture, as a US Navy F-18 struck and disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman and the EU hit Iran’s Navy… with sanctions.

In short, this crisis is far from over, even as Trump says “total victory” will be declared in the next two weeks as Iranian negotiators are “willing to give us everything,” and VP Vance added that the deal being discussed was “a home run” for the US. Yet the inside baseball question remains which negotiators the US is talking to given local reports that contact has been lost with Supreme Leader Khamenei Jr. and another that IRGV leader Vahidi was killed in a recent Israeli strike.

Elsewhere in geopolitics, Berlin says the Franco-German fighter jet project is dead, a major blow to future pan-European defence plans; Switzerland is weighing a Franco-Italian alternative to US air defences given a 5-year wait for the latter; and a French fighter jet shot down a suspected Russian drone in Latvian airspace.

That’s as Germany claimed it’s ready to take the reins from the US in talks with Putin despite Russia rejecting Ukrainian and European peace initiatives, saying instead that the battlefield will decide the war – but as Moscow pauses its CCTV systems after Israel hacked Iran’s to target its Supreme Leader. Back in the UK, a secret camera was found in the ceiling panel of the room in a sensitive government building where the decision was made to approve the new Chinese embassy.

Showing how lines on the map can move as the driver of lines on the screen, the US is considering buying the Chagos Islands to take control of the strategic UK airbase on Diego Garcia; Mauritius, whom the UK is controversially trying to hand the islands to, is today demanding they get them ASAP to avoid that outcome.

China’s Xi Jinping, on a state visit, pledged “unwavering” support for North Korea, making some things crystal clear, as Bloomberg publishes its estimates for the economic damage from a war over Taiwan: $10 trillion, apparently. Which justifies or incentivizes doing what as insurance?

In LatAm, Peru is set for lengthy vote count as its presidential race is still too close to call, and Colombia will see a presidential runoff ahead following the leftist Cepeda’s first round election loss.

In geoeconomics, the US added Alibaba, BYD and other Chinese tech champions to its military company blacklist. That’s as Anthropic's Mythos can reportedly now exploit new software flaws in mere hours and OpenAI gets ready for its IPO, Trump is mirroring Bernie Sanders in arguing the state should get stakes in AI giants - and presumably not just in military and security areas but across the economic spectrum. To say we are moving the political-economy Overton Window is an understatement: at this stage are there any actual windows left? Indeed, could the walls and the roof fall in on conventional analysis using conventional wisdom?

The European press talks of how ‘China is killing Europe’s chemicals industry. Brussels wants to intervene’ and France’s Macron is reportedly to court China to get them to address trade imbalances – offering and threatening what exactly?

Indonesia is also weighing export rule exemptions for commodity traders to try to calm local markets after the recent de facto state control of that key area of the economy.

At the same time, Trump's $100,000 H-1B visa fee was declared an unlawful “tax” by a US judge, as were his tariffs of course, which will now be appealed (was the lower via fee also a tax? If not, why not?).

As you were then… but as who was? And what will we be soon – besides confused?

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 09:45

Apollo And Blackstone Raise $35 Billion For Anthropic In One Of The Biggest Ever Private Credit SPV Deals

Back in January, when we profiled Meta's landmark $27.3 billion SPV deal named "Beignet" for the Hyperion data center located in Louisiana, in which Blue Owl provided the private credit, we said to "expect hundreds of billions of these in 2026."

As a reminder, META is already neck deep in off-balance sheet debt. Here is a schematic of its $27.3 billion SPV with Blue Owl "Project Beignet" for the Hyperion data center. None of this touches META's balance sheet.

Expect hundreds of billions of these in 2026 https://t.co/794EgSiiZ9 pic.twitter.com/7hMyVW6Lno

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 29, 2026

Fast forward five months when we now read that Apollo and Blackstone have finalized a $35BN private credit deal that will help finance Anthropic’s growth plans, even as traditional "banks are choking" on the amount of AI debt they have to issue. 

The two private credit giants - which in a parallel universe are struggling with soaring redemption requests and gating retail investors in their private credit BDCs as documented here extensively in recent months - led the financing, one of the largest private credit deals completed, which will fund Anthropic’s purchase of Alphabet-developed chips.

The deal, dubbed project “Big Sky”, comes amid concerns that the AI frenzy has overheated the broader market. Shares in chipmakers rebounded on Monday after tumbling last week, led by Broadcom’s fall in market value. It also adds to a deluge of chip-backed loans that sparked debate over how quickly graphics processing units would depreciate as AI technology evolves.

In this type of financing structure, a special-purpose vehicle raises capital through a mix of debt and equity to purchase the chips, which are then leased to a customer, in this case Anthropic. The debt is primarily backed by the resulting lease payments, along with the unknown long-term value of the chips. In this case, the $35 billion debt facility was structured across three tranches. The senior layers — the $6 billion notes dubbed A1 and $24 billion of A2 notes — are backed by Broadcom, allowing the debt to secure lower borrowing costs aligned with Broadcom’s strong credit profile. The notes received private ratings in the mid-investment grade tier.

The transaction wrapped up days after Alphabet completed one of the largest equity offerings in history, as it looks to raise $85bn to fund Google’s AI build-out, and as SpaceX prepares for a flotation that could raise a record $86bn. Anthropic also announced it had confidentially filed for an IPO shortly after its blockbuster $65bn private financing round.

As discussed previously, the AI borrowing spree has reached beyond traditional US capital markets, where AI is expected to raise $400 billion in debt, rising to over $1 trillion through 2028 to meet roughly $1.8 trillion in capex needs over the next two years, according to Morgan Stanley...

... with Amazon raising C$14bn (US$10bn) on Monday in the largest ever Canadian dollar bond sale. 

Similar to Meta's Beignet deal, Anthropic’s deal with Apollo and Blackstone relies on a complex structure that private investment groups routinely use to finance start-ups with backing from blue-chip companies. A special purpose vehicle formed by Apollo’s Atlas SP Partners raised the debt and equity, with lease agreements for the chips ultimately supporting the value of the transaction.

Per the FT, Apollo and Blackstone structured the loan across three tranches, with interest payments on the two senior segments backstopped by Broadcom. The chipmaker is making the so-called tensor processing units, or TPUs, with Google. Its agreement to provide support if Anthropic misses an interest payment helped vastly reduce the costs on the debt.

The two senior portions of the debt were split between banks and investors. Some $6bn of so-called A1 notes were sold to banks with an interest rate 1% over Treasuries. A further $24bn of A2 notes were sold on to investors in asset-backed credit markets, priced with a yield of 5.75 per cent. Buyers of the A2 tranche included institutional investors like Apollo’s Athene insurance arm, which favors high-quality debt to back its long-term liabilities. 

The $4.5bn of junior debt, which is not supported by Broadcom and therefore exposes lenders more acutely to Anthropic, carried an interest rate of 8.5%. Investors were also offered an original issue discount of 98 cents to 99 cents on the dollar depending on cheque sizes. In other words, without the implicit guarantee from an investment grade guarantor - like Broadcom in this case - the cost of capital is roughly double. 

In addition to the debt, Apollo’s Atlas SP Partners’ structured-finance unit provided $800 million in equity, meaning it’s effectively the owner of the SPV.

A key feature of the deal is Broadcom providing a “residual value support” agreement. That means that if Anthropic fails to make the lease payments for a certain period of time, the SPV will sell the chips to pay back the debt investors. If the value of the chips doesn’t make the debt investors whole, then Broadcom will make up the shortfall for 100% of the value owed to the A1 and A2 investors.  

This type of residual value feature has been used in another mega debt deal, though it financed the construction of a data center rather than chips. As noted above, Meta provided a similar protection for the value of its Hyperion facility in Louisiana - a transaction that Morgan Stanley arranged. That allowed the so-called Beignet bonds to trade in line with Meta’s corporate debt.

For those whose head is spinning with the circularity involved, this is how we described the deal last week when it was first floated: 

Broadcom is backstopping a massive $36 billion private credit SPV with Apollo and Blackstone which will help Anthropic buy Google chips... made by Broadcom. Oh, and yes: Google owns 14% of Anthropic...

*BROADCOM: WORK WITH APOLLO, BLACKSTONE SERVES OPENAI, ANTHROPIC

Translation: Broadcom is backstopping a massive $36 billion private credit SPV with Apollo and Blackstone which will help Anthropic buy Google chips... made by Broadcom.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 3, 2026

But wait, there's more... because if that wasn't enough, Morgan Stanley, which advised Broadcom and arranged the transaction, is also lending money to investors participating in the deal!

And just because this is a "chip-backed" off-balance sheet SPV where nobody really knows who holds the debt, the monstrous circularity of all the deal aspects will be ignored until the AI credit bubble cracks. 

As for the punchline: demonstrating the insane frenzy of anything involving AI, investors involved in the deal did not even know what they were investing in! According to the FT, investors pitched on the deal were not given early access to Anthropic’s financials ahead of its IPO.

Not everyone involved in the deal is a total idiot: some investors passed on the deal over the delayed-draw format of the debt, which drives down yields because the money can be withdrawn in multiple tranches over a period of time.

Yet despite the smashing success of the deal, one glaring question remains. Recall, last week SpaceX penned a massive deal with Google (to urgently burnish the IPO candidate's financials just days ahead of its IPO), according to which Google will pay Elon Musk $920 million a month for access to about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs (unlike its hyperscaler peers, SpaceX has plenty of spare compute to rent out). And yet, despite seemingly telegraphing it is dramatically "compute constrained" as the SpaceX deal implies, it still has plenty of chip available that it can sell $35B of their chips to their biggest competitor, Anthropic.

This wasn't the only such deal: just days prior, Anthropic (which will use proceeds from this private credit SPV to purchase Google chips made by Broadcom), agreed to pay $1.5 billion a month for access to 325,000 Nvidia GPU also held by SpaceX. No wonder these sham agreements were structured so they can be terminated by either party after December 2026. 

For those shaking their heads at these glaring examples of circular bubble euphoria, fear not: you will have plenty of opportunities to enjoy more such deals (going back to our point up top): Broadcom chief executive Hock Tan said the company hoped to connect “investor partners with the strongest balance sheets to deliver at scale sufficient compute capacity at the lowest cost”, pointing to the deal with Apollo and Blackstone as the first of many transactions to come.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 09:15

House Report Finds Minnesota Officials Ignored Fraud To Avoid Racism Accusations

A House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform report released Monday paints a devastating picture of both Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and state Attorney General Keith Ellison, finding that they both knew about widespread fraud in state social services programs and failed to act.

The report centers on the Feeding Our Future scandal, in which a Minnesota-based nonprofit systematically exploited federal COVID-19 relief funds intended to provide meals to children.

So far, more than 60 people have already been found guilty of fraud in connection with the scheme, the majority of whom are of Somali descent. Some defendants used stolen taxpayer money to buy luxury goods, while others funneled proceeds to a radical Islamic terrorist group operating in Somalia. At least $300 million in federal child nutrition funds were placed at serious risk, and approximately $9 billion in Medicaid losses resulted from the broader fraud environment state officials allowed to fester.

"Fraud warnings were elevated to the most senior levels of the Minnesota state government, meaningful corrective action was delayed or avoided, and payments continued long after credible signs of fraud emerged," the report states.

Senior officials in Walz's office and Ellison's office knew about systemic fraud concerns as early as 2019 within the Minnesota Department of Human Services and, by April 2020, within the state Department of Education, the report says, directly contradicting Walz's and Ellison's public statements.

This matters because both men held legal authority to cut off payments to fraudulent operators. Neither exercised it, even though Walz was aware of the suspected fraud in Feeding Our Future by 2020, and the payments continued.

The fraudsters didn't just know how to exploit the system for financial gain; they knew how to blackmail state officials to keep their scheme going. When workers inside the Department of Education tried to audit child care and nutrition programs, providers accused them of racism. The accusation worked. Officials backed down despite holding evidence that funds were being fraudulently diverted. Dozens of human services department staff were warned, explicitly, that raising fraud concerns would get them labeled as racists and damage the government's reputation. Some were pulled into supervisory meetings. Others were excluded from the very internal discussions about the fraud they had flagged.

And the directive to look the other way from the fraud came from the top down. One Minnesota Department of Education official who first contacted the FBI about Feeding Our Future told investigators her supervisors pressured her to stop investigating "at every turn" and that she got her "hand slapped" for continuing to look into it. Staff feared reporting fraud to the Homeland Security Office of Inspector General because that agency would notify the Commissioner or HR, who would then retaliate against them. The internal culture the Walz administration built was one in which accountability was the threat, not the fraud.

Rather than combating the fraud, the Walz administration spent resources monitoring employees to keep them in line. The priority, the report shows, was getting ahead of press coverage about the fraud, not stopping it.

"Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison are responsible for one of the most stunning oversight failures this Committee has ever examined," Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer said in a statement. "Today's report is the culmination of months of investigative work and reveals hard evidence showing how the Walz Administration failed to stop widespread fraud, allowing criminals to enrich themselves at the expense of American taxpayers. Billions of dollars were stolen because Minnesota state leaders turned a blind eye to rampant fraud and retaliated against state employees who dared to raise concerns. It is now clear the Walz Administration chose to protect the system rather than protect the taxpayer."

The report makes clear that this fraud wasn't some bureaucratic mistake or a problem that went unnoticed. Senior officials were repeatedly warned about what was happening. They chose not to act in order to preserve their political relationship with Minnesota's Somali community, manage the fallout, and sideline the employees who were raising red flags and trying to stop it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 09:00

Futures Rise As Tech Rebound Extends While Oil Drops

US equity futures are higher as Monday’s US stock gains extend into today’s trading with both tech and small caps outperforming as the AI theme resumes its global surge and US/Iran deal optimism is back (on the back of the now daily optimistic comments from Trump) broadening the rally.  As of 8:00am ET, tech enthusiasm is on display with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.8% as chipmakers including Marvell Technology Inc. and Micron Technology Inc. posted strong premarket gains, while S&P500 futures gain 0.4%. In premarket trading, Mag7 names are mostly higher; cyclicals ex-energy are leading defensives ex-HC. A similar theme played out in APAC, with the tech-laden Kospi soaring 8.2%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is rising alongside weaker energy prices with gains driven by financials and consumer names. Oil dipped after Trump said a framework of deal "within the next 2 days," though it is unclear what has changed from previous claims over the last 2 months. Commodities are reacting to headline risk with Brent down 2.1% as Israel and Iran halt attacks and Chinese oil imports declined, and WTI below $90/bbl. The downside in energy prices has provided a mild support for global fixed income markets, with US yields 1-2bps lower across the curve ahead of the US 3-year note auction. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is down 0.2%. Downside in USD/JPY from a report that the BOJ could hike in June and October proved fleeting. Precious metals are steady. Bitcoin sheds 1.3%. The macro data focus will be on weekly ADP, the NFIB Small Biz Survey where the Hiring sub-index may give add’l evidence for the labor market acceleration. Keep an eye on the 3Y bond auction today

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +0.4%, Amazon +0.6%, Meta +1.1%, Alphabet +0.6%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.3%). 

• Chipmakers, opticals and storage firms rise, on track to extend gains, as the group rebounds in the wake of Friday’s sharp selloff.
• Lithium stocks rise as Citi remains bullish on the metal, seeing a recovery in prices after the recent selloff.
• Applied Digital (APLD) is up 11% after the neocloud company said it signed a 15-year take-or-pay lease with a US-based artificial intelligence hyperscaler, for 210 megawatts of critical IT load at its Delta Forge 2 campus.
• CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO) gains 13% as the manufacturer of water treatment equipment updated its full year outlook after closing Thermon Group Holdings acquisition.
• GDS Holdings ADRS (GDS) rise along with other Chinese cloud providers as people familiar with the matter said that China is preparing to spend around $295 billion over the next five years to build data centers across the country.
• Mission Produce (AVO) falls 2% after the avocado supplier reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Nuvalent (NUVL) is up 39% after GSK agreed to acquire the company for $10.6 billion. The transaction will accelerate GSK’s entry into the lung cancer space and could help offset the looming patent expiry of its HIV drug dolutegravir, Barclays analyst James Gordon wrote in a note.
• Perrigo (PRGO) slips 1% after the company’s CEO Patrick Lockwood-Taylor resigned from both roles and from the board, following a determination that certain personal conduct was inconsistent with the company’s code of conduct and core values.
• SailPoint (SAIL) falls 13% after the software company’s quarterly results and outlook isn’t enough to extend recent strength in the stock, which is up nearly 70% off an April low as of last close.
• Vail Resorts (MTN) is down 4% after the ski resort operator cut its net income guidance for the full year, attributing the reduction to “historically challenging” weather conditions in the western US.

In other corporate news, executives overseeing Oatly’s Chinese operations are said to be considering buying out the business. Apple’s iOS 27 and related software updates offer signs the of the company’s upcoming foldable iPhone. GSK agreed to buy clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company Nuvalent in a deal valued at $10.6 billion to expand in oncology treatments.

After a brief pause in the rally that propelled equities to record highs, traders are returning on expectations that corporate profits will give stocks further room to run. OpenAI’s confidential filing for an initial public offering and the oversubscription of SpaceX’s share sale served as reminders of the vast demand for AI - before attention turns to Wednesday’s CPI print.  Overnight sentiment was also boosted from lower energy costs, with Brent sliding 1.5% to below $93 a barrel. Israel and Iran agreed to end their tit-for-tat attacks, while President Donald Trump renewed his claims that a US peace deal with Tehran was nearly done. 

From SpaceX’s IPO being oversubscribed ahead of books closing late Wednesday, to OpenAI filing confidentially for an IPO and said to be planning a tender sale of its shares to provide liquidity to employees, “there’s a real race for capital that’s going on,” notes CPR Asset Management’s Julien Daire, perhaps to get ahead of the moment of realization that much of this SPV chip-backed rollout is funded by American retirees putting their money in "safe" annuities.

And the biggest investor: unwitting retirees through “safe” annuities purchased from Apollo’s Athene insurance company https://t.co/UhtWzj59ia

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 9, 2026

Meanwhile in China, the country plans to spend around $295 billion to fund a nationwide AI buildout of data centers, signaling its ambition to propel the domestic AI sector and rely on local suppliers for at least 80% of technology such as AI chips. 

And speaking of China, the AI supercycle showed up in macro data overnight as well, with Beijing's export sales of semiconductors soaring 111% year-on-year in May, the fastest expansion since 2013. Elsewhere, the massive PJM power grid region is expected to see a 26-fold increase in energy storage over the next decade on the back of data-center driven load growth and lagging supply strain reliability and affordability. 

There are red flags: bond-yield levels don’t look encouraging for stocks, but it will likely take greater rate volatility to trigger another leg lower, according to Bloomberg Senior Strategist Michael Msika. Risks are mounting into a tricky June, but portfolio rotation seems to be the preferred approach, rather than cutting exposure altogether. The bond market is running ahead of the Fed policy rate, with a clear message for Kevin Warsh that rates need to be higher, and prompted Citi to lower its short-term price target for gold.  

While AI “has driven a strong rally so far, it also carries a high risk of pullbacks, which are bound to occur given the dynamic nature of the sector’s development,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at MPPM.

Warnings that a push higher in stocks could prove choppy still abound. Citigroup Inc. strategists said traders are aggressively building short-selling positions in US equities, while bullish wagers on the tech sector remained stretched. Friday’s near 5% selloff in the Nasdaq 100 has only partially reset exposure among investors, the Citi team led by David Chew noted. 

The next few weeks hold major risk events, with inflation data due Wednesday and the first Federal Reserve interest-rate decision under Chairman Kevin Warsh on June 17. 

“If inflationary risks continue to rise, a more aggressive repricing of the Fed could easily challenge current valuations and derail equity markets,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin.

In politics, the race for California governor is on track for a two-person runoff in November between veteran Democratic politician Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton, a British-born television personality endorsed by President Trump. The Pentagon has accused some of China’s biggest companies of supporting the Chinese military, including Alibaba, Baidu and BYD.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is rising alongside weaker energy prices with gains driven by financials and consumer names.  Health care stocks were dragged lower by GSK, which shed as much as 3.9% after announcing it would acquire US firm Nuvalent for $10.6 billion. The energy subindex was the biggest laggard as Brent crude dropped below $93 a barrel. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Demant advances as much as 5%, to the highest since August 2025, after a BofA double-upgrade to buy removes the only negative analyst rating on the hearing aids manufacturer
• Givaudan rises as much as 5.9%, the most in almost two months and taking the stock to the highest since late February, as Deutsche Bank upgrades the Swiss fragrance and flavor maker to buy and JPMorgan adds a positive catalyst watch
• WPP leads European advertising firms higher after Berenberg said the sector is poised for a rerating because investors have overestimated the threat posed by artificial intelligence. Analysts initiated coverage of WPP, Publicis Groupe and Havas with buy ratings
• Seraphim Space Investment Trust shares rise as much as 26%, their biggest jump in almost three years, after the fund said the fair value of Iceye, its largest holding, had doubled after a funding round
• Breedon Group shares gain as much as 6.6%, the largest intra-day rise in two months, after the building materials supplier announced the $120 million acquisition of a limestone quarry near Missouri
• Fever-Tree shares rise as much 8.2% to the highest in a month after the company said it was on track to meet expectations and extended its buyback program
• El.En. shares climb as much as 6.3% to the highest since November 2021, after Stifel initiated the laser equipment firm with a buy rating, predicting profits to more than double over the next five years
• GSK shares slip as much as 3.9% as Barclays analysts noted the British drugmaker will gain access to two experimental medicines in late-stage trials through its planned purchase of Nuvalent, but that upside is capped
• K+S shares fall as much as 5.6% to their lowest since January as the German agricultural chemicals firm launches an offering of convertible bonds worth around €300 million to finance the previously-announced purchase of Qemetica’s salt business
• Trigano shares drop as much as 7.5%, the most in over nine months, after analysts at Oddo BHF cut their price target on the maker of recreational vehicles and removed it from their list of top picks within the European mid-cap space
• Rusta falls as much as 7.7% after the Swedish discount retailer reported its latest earnings. DNB Carnegie says the print shows a weaker-than-expected end to 2025/2026, with added headwinds from “very tough” comparables

Asian stocks rose, as bargain hunters dipped back in to buy technology stocks after a sharp selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 2.8%, on track to snap a three-day losing streak. The information technology sector led gains among sub-indexes, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics contributing the most to the advance. South Korea and Indonesia led the region’s rebound, just a day after ranking among the worst performers. The rally follows a steep pullback triggered by concerns over overheating in artificial intelligence stocks. While broader concerns about the sector’s momentum remain, the recent drop has made valuations more appealing and steady earnings are helping to support sentiment. Easing tensions in the Middle East added to the positive tone, after Iran and Israel agreed to scale back strikes following a flare-up that had threatened to derail peace efforts and drew calls for de-escalation from President Donald Trump.

In FX, the dollar headed for its biggest two-day retreat in a month. Indonesia’s central bank raised its benchmark rate ahead of its next scheduled meeting to reverse a market selloff and support the rupiah. 

In rates, treasuries rose modestly as traders dialed back bets on US interest-rate hikes, led by short-dated notes as oil continued its decline after Israel and Iran agreed to stop attacks, following a flare-up in violence. US yields are richer by up to 2.5bp across front end of the curve with long end richer by around 1bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1bp and 1.5bp vs. Monday close. US 10-year yields trade around 4.545%, down 1.5bp on the day with bunds lagging by 1.5bp in the sector, gilts slightly outperforming. Bull steepening move comes ahead of this week’s first Treasury auction of $58 billion 3-year notes at 1pm New York. Treasury auction cycle resumes at 1pm New York with $58 billion 3-year notes, before $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. The WI 3-year trading around 4.205% is 24bp cheaper than the May stop-out, which tailed the WI by 0.6bp.

In commodities, Brent has continued to slip, down 2.1% as Israel and Iran halt attacks and Chinese oil imports declined. Bitcoin sheds 1.3%. Precious metals are steady. Gold held steady near $4,340 an ounce. The appeal of the precious metal has steadily faded from a peak above $5,400 in January after the war in the Middle East upended expectations for US monetary policy, shifting bets from rate cuts to possible hikes.

Today's US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am), April trade balance (8:30am), May existing home sales, April wholesale inventories (10am)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• President Trump asked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to pull back from escalating his country’s strikes against Iran during a call on Monday morning, telling the Israeli leader that the United States and Iran were within days of a breakthrough clearing the way for talks on a long-term nuclear deal. NYT
• Trump Says Peace Talks on Track After Israel-Iran Clash Ends: BBG
• USTR Greer said to be heading to Silicon Valley to promote onshoring this week: Semafor 
• China’s exports surged last month on demand for AI-related goods as the world’s second-largest economy shook off the impact of energy shortages from the Middle East. Exports expanded 19.4 per cent in May on a year earlier in dollar terms, exceeding expectations. FT
• A sharp fall in China’s oil imports is keeping global prices in check despite a supply crunch lasting more than 100 days due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. China’s int’l oil purchases fell to the lowest level in more than 8 years in May. Nikkei
• The BoJ will consider maintaining the current pace of bond purchases beyond next fiscal year, sources said, pausing a taper process that would ‌mark a turning point in its quantitative tightening (QT) plan. But the decision could be a close call as the nine-member board is seen as split between those who want to focus on soothing investor nerves and others who see the need to steadily slow purchases to reduce the BOJ's large balance sheet. RTRS
• Japanese policymakers said on Tuesday they stood ready to act decisively against excessive yen falls while remaining vigilant to rising bond yields that could hurt the economy, highlighting ‌the dilemma they faced in countering unfavorable market moves. RTRS
• German industrial production grew for the first time since war broke out in Iran, fueling hope that Europe’s largest economy is weathering the jump in energy costs. Output increased 0.4% in April from the previous month, driven mainly by construction. BBG
• China is preparing to spend around 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) over the next five years on building data centers across the country, fueling Beijing’s ambition to propel the domestic AI sector and surpass the US in a potentially game-changing technology.  BBG
• The $31 trillion Treasury market has an unequivocal message for Kevin Warsh’s Fed: Interest rates aren’t high enough. Yields on two-year notes hovered near their highest level in more than a year. BBG
• An index of US small business optimism fell last month to the lowest level since October 2024, erasing almost all of the gains seen since Trump was elected for a second term. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed, albeit with a mostly positive bias as indices rebounded from yesterday's losses, with sentiment helped by Israel and Iran halting their strikes, while participants also reflected on the better-than-expected Chinese trade data. ASX 200 declined as the prior day's losses caught up with the index on return from a long weekend. Nikkei 225 fluctuated and briefly wiped out all its opening gains before rebounding to print fresh intraday highs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland kept afloat following the stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data, although gains were capped after the US Pentagon posted a list of Chinese military companies, which included Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, Tencent, NIO and Cosco among others.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Balance of Trade (USD)(May) 105.4B vs. Exp. 91.5B (Prev. 84.8B).
• Chinese Exports YY (May) 19.4% vs. Exp. 14.3% (Prev. 14.1%).
• Chinese Imports YY (May) 27.4% vs. Exp. 25% (Prev. 25.3%).
• Taiwan Balance of Trade (May) 17.91B vs. Exp. 15.2B (Prev. 14.35B).
• Taiwan Exports YoY (May) Y/Y 51.7% vs. Exp. 37.9% (Prev. 39%).
• Taiwan Imports YoY (May) Y/Y 54.90% vs. Exp. 37.4% (Prev. 29.2%).
• Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jun) 80.6 (Prev. 83).
• Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change MM (Jun) -2.9% (Prev. 3.5%).
• Australian NAB Business Confidence (May) -14 (Prev. -24).
• Australian NAB Business Conditions (May) 3 (Prev. 3).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) start Tuesday's trade on a positive footing with geopolitical updates quiet. FTSE MIB (+1.6%) is the clear outperformer helped by gains in Banks, while FTSE 100 (-0.3%) is the only index in the red as miners and healthcare giants fall. European sectors hold a positive bias. Insurance (+1.3%) tops the pile, with Retail (+1.0%) and Banks (+1.2%) rounding out the top 3. To the downside are Basic Resources (-0.3%), Health Care (-0.5%) and Energy (-0.4%).

Top European News

• CBI warned around 200k more Britons are on track to become unemployed, with unemployment forecast to rise to 5.5% this year, while it cut UK GDP growth forecasts to 1.1% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027 from prior expectations of 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively.
• No breakthrough in discussions on finalising the Defence Investment Plan on Monday but it could still come this week, POLITICO reported citing sources.

FX

• G10s are nearly entirely firmer against a modestly softer Buck, which remains towards recent post-NFP highs. Kiwi and sterling outperform, NOK is the laggard with Brent Aug’26 -1.5%.
• USD a touch lower and well within post-payrolls ranges. The general risk environment has improved since Friday’s strong Payrolls, and Monday’s bid in crude. Overnight saw Kospi rise near 8%, optimism which has travelled through to European hours with bourses/US futures firm. The next inflection point, aside from geopolitics, will likely be US CPI and PPI on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Today sees the release of NFIB small business optimism data, weekly ADP jobs, and Trade metrics. Technicals, to the upside is the 100 mark, where DXY typically loses steam, and downside is 99.80 which provided support on Monday.
• GBP is one of the best G10 performers. A strong BRC retail sales showed consumer spending had steadied from a weak April figure with food and non-food sales accelerating sharply in May. Pantheon Macro estimates the BRC survey in isolation is consistent with a 0.6% month-to-month rise in official retail sales volumes in May. Cable took a hit on Friday’s Payrolls and continues to trade below levels seen before the data (c. 50pips), carry remains in focus into the slew of Central Bank meetings this, and next week. BoE pricing steady, still only pricing one full hike this year (c. 45bps by year-end), consistent with recent levels.
• Antipodeans outperforming with Kiwi benefitting to a greater extent after strong Chinese trade data beat expectations across the board thanks to robust tech-related Imports and Exports. Australian NAB business confidence was out overnight, remaining negative though faring better than April’s figure. AUD/NZD dipped from a 1.2136 peak, to mark a session trough of 1.2083, AUD/USD +0.1%, NZD/USD +0.3%.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mildly firmer this morning, benefiting from lower energy prices as recent geopolitical tensions ease for the time being. In brief, Israel and Iran have agreed to halt their strikes, though recent reports have suggested that Southern Lebanon remains under fire. Trump has continued to talk up the mood, stating that a total victory will be declared in two weeks. For reference, this marks the 37th time he has suggested that a deal is imminent, CNN reported.
• USTs (+2 ticks) are slightly firmer and trade within a 108-27+ to 109-03 range. As above, action is facilitated by lower energy prices, but with trade tentative amidst the uncertain environment. Also clouding the picture is the hawkish economic picture, with the recent NFP report pointing towards a solid labour market. US CPI and PPI (Wed/Thu) will play key roles for policymakers heading into next week’s policy decision. As for today, traders will digest US ADP Weekly Change, Exports/Imports, Atlanta Fed GDP, and Wholesale Inventories (Apr).
• Bunds (+10 ticks) and Gilts (+15 ticks) also trade modestly higher, but with price action rangebound. In Germany, Industrial Production increased from the prior, but still remains at low levels; trade data displayed a mixed picture.
• Over in the UK, BRC Retail Sales in May topped expectations (3.4% vs exp. 0.6%), indicating that consumers have remained resilient despite the Iran conflict; though, some of that spending may be related to the good weather experienced in the region. As for politics, UK PM candidate Burnham is reportedly poised to delay any Labour leadership bid until after the battle to retain the Greater Manchester mayoralty. Gilts trade in a 87.53 to 87.69 range.
• Germany sells EUR 1.756bln vs exp. EUR 2.0bln 1.80% 2053, 2.50% 2035 and 2.30% 2033 Green Bund.
• The Netherlands sells EUR 2.5bln vs exp. 2.5bln 2.50% 2035 DSL: Average yield 3.102% (prev. 2.810%).

Commodities

• Crude futures are softer, continuing from Monday's afternoon sell-off, as Israel and Iran seemingly hold onto their promises to halt attacks on each other. Despite this, there have been reports of strikes in Lebanon but benchmarks were unreactive. Late in Monday's session, Axios reported that in a call with Israeli PM Netanyahu, US President Trump warned that if the Israeli leader went back to war with Iran, he might be fighting alone. Further on the US-Iran deal, CNN reported, citing a top Iranian official, said a deal being imminently reached is doubtful due to persistence of major roadblocks regarding Iran's nuclear programme and uranium enrichment. However, these reports have failed to damper the risk tone. WTI Jul trades at the lower end of a USD 88.80-91.55/bbl range while Brent Aug hovers around the USD 92.00/bbl mark (USD 92.00-94.42/bbl).
• Precious metals have steadied since Friday's selloff, with spot gold hovering above the USD 4300/oz handle (USD 4313-4352/oz). Spot silver has regained the 200-SMA, trading at the upper end of its USD 67.46-68.86/oz range.
• 3M LME Copper gains, along with the broader base metal space, amid the positive risk tone. The red metal trades at the top end of its USD 13.55k-13.77k/t range.
• Vale said it has not seen any significant destruction in global metals demand from the Iran conflict, with strong demand for critical minerals and tighter raw material flows helping support commodity prices and margins.

Trade/Tariffs

• US asked China to resume rare earth exports to Japan, with Washington concerned regarding impacts on global high-tech supply chains, according to Nikkei.
• China Foreign Ministry, on the US adding Chinese firms to Pentagon list, said China always opposes US overgeneralising the concept of national security.

Central Banks

• BoJ is reportedly prepared to raise rates by 25bps at its June meeting, Nikkei reported. The hike is to prepare for the risk of an upward revision of inflation. Also, to begin discussions around the discontinuation of its quarterly reduction in government bond purchases from April 2027 onwards.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US President Trump said they are negotiating regarding Iran and a victory will happen very soon, while he stated they will declare total victory in two weeks and oil prices will come down post-Iran. Trump separately commented that he could have an idea on an Iran deal in one or two days, and stated the blockade continues to hold, as well as stated that they are very close to having a good, strong, powerful deal. On the Iran-Israel front, he said that Israel and Iran agreed to leave each other alone for another week.
• US VP Vance said a potential Iran deal will be a home run for the American people and that the US will need to verify over the long-term that Iran is living up to the agreement, while he also stated that the US's interest lies in a deal with Iran, whether Israel likes it or not. Vance also commented that the primary goal is to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and stated that a military option is not ruled out if diplomacy with Iran fails.
• Iran's UN envoy hopes for US-Iran talks conclusion by the end of June, and stated the US and Iran are exchanging views via Pakistan.
• Iranian official said no agreement can be reached unless its frozen funds are released and sanctions are lifted, while the official added that Washington made changes to the draft MoU and that this was unacceptable, according to Al Jazeera. It was separately reported that a top Iranian official casted doubt on a deal being imminently reached between the US and Iran, while the official said major roadblocks persist on issues like Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment.
• Iranian Parliament member said that if Israel attacks Lebanon or Iranian soil, then both Israel and US military bases will be legitimate targets.
• A military source familiar with the Houthis suggest that they are "preparing major military surprises, and that the weapons that will be used in the naval or aerial conflict will be of high quality", Kan's Kais reported.
• Two new airstrikes have reportedly been undertaken by Israel, targeting Southern Lebanon, Tehran Times reported.
• Tasnim news agency reported air raids by Israel on two settlements in the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon.IRNA reported continuation of attacks by Israeli regime on southern Lebanon.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia and Belarus are constantly ready to use all available means, including nuclear, to ensure security, according to an interview with Izvestia newspaper.
• Drone strike reportedly hit Sevastopol in Russian-annexed Crimea.

US Event Calendar

• 6:00 am: May NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 96, prior 95.9
• 8:30 am: Apr Trade Balance, est. -56.1b, prior -60.3b
• 10:00 am: May Existing Home Sales, est. 4.07m, prior 4.02m
• 10:00 am: Apr F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.55%, prior 0.5%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Istanbul. Please don’t tell my wife, but this extraordinary city was the backdrop to the greatest night of my life some five years before I met her. Even now, the memory is vivid of that special night of passion. The heat. The noise. The sweat. A pounding heart and hours of emotional turbulence. By late evening it felt inevitable that it simply wasn’t going to happen, and that I’d leave exhausted, disappointed and slightly broken. Then, just after midnight, against all logic and expectation, came a sudden, frantic and utterly euphoric release. Yes after being 3-0 down at half-time, the "Miracle of Istanbul" arrived and Liverpool fought back and ultimately won the penalty shoot out and, with it, the Champions League back in 2005. A night I will never forget but with the way Liverpool played this past season I'm not sure when that will be next repeated.

Talking of repeats, it seems the cycle of "near a deal, not near a deal, escalation, de escalation, maybe back near a deal" continues. However for now we’re back in the “a deal is still possible” camp and in addition the AI trade has continued to bounce back this morning.  
On that, the KOSPI (+7.35%) is sharply higher after its 9th worst day in 45 plus years of history yesterday (-8.29%). The Nikkei (+2.19%) is also benefiting from a recovery in technology stocks after a decline of over -3.5% yesterday. Chinese stocks are up just over half a percent and other markets are broadly flat. S&P 500 (+0.26%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.54%) futures are also continuing to recover after a decent session yesterday.

As I'm typing this this morning, President Trump has been speaking to reporters and has said that they are "very close to having a good strong powerful deal" and that they "could have an idea on Iran in one or two days now". Of course we've been here a few times before but the weekend stresses are fading back a little for now.  

Indeed markets swung around yesterday as we faced an array of geopolitical headlines. Initially, it looked like another rough session, with Brent Crude up over +5% in the European morning amidst the strikes between Israel and Iran we discussed this time yesterday. However, the mood soon began to turn more positive, with President Trump calling on both sides to dial things down which to be fair he tried to do late in the weekend. Then late in the European morning session, Trump posted that “Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly.”

That post from Trump led to an initial decline in oil prices, but the bigger move lower then came after Iran’s Fars said that the military operation against Israel had ended. Admittedly, they warned that further Israeli attacks would lead to “much harsher and more crushing actions than before”, but the end to the attacks was taken positively. Moreover, Israeli PM Netanyahu later said that Israel would hold fire in Iran for now. So it felt as though for the time being at least, the weekend flare-up in hostilities had been stopped, and there was still a path for peace talks to continue.

Given the end to the Israel-Iran strikes, Brent crude ultimately came down from an intraday peak above $98/bbl in the European morning, to $94.25/bbl by the close. Or in other words, it was only up +1.25% from its Friday close. That gap has narrowed further this morning with a -0.80% fall as I type. 

Even with the pull back, concerns around inflation remained high yesterday, which cemented investor conviction that central banks would still be hiking rates in the coming months. Indeed for the Fed, markets raised the chance of a hike as soon as September to 53%, up from 44% on Friday. It's ticked down to 50% this morning.  

Given that backdrop, it was a tough session for sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. So Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+1.6bps) up to 4.16%, its highest since February 2025, while 10yr (+3.3bps to 4.56%) and 30yr yields (+4.0bps to 5.03%) saw larger increases. Notably, there were some big milestones for real yields, with the 10yr real yield (+3.7bps) closing at a one-year high of 2.20%. However, we didn’t have any Fed speakers as we’re now in the blackout period before next week’s meeting, so we don’t have much sense of how they’re thinking about the strong jobs report and whether it warrants a hawkish reaction.

Over in Europe it was a similar story, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.2bps), OATs (+3.3bps) and BTPs (+3.4bps) all moving higher again. In fact, for 10yr OATs it took them up to a post-2009 high of 3.84%. And then in Germany, the 10yr real yield was at a 5-month high of 0.82%, despite some underwhelming data on factory orders, which showed a monthly decline of -3.8% in April (vs. -2.0% expected).

One relatively positive area yesterday was US equities, with the major indices stabilising after Friday’s slump. The recovery was particularly visible in segments that slumped the most on Friday, with the NASDAQ up +0.86%, whilst the Philly semiconductor index rose +5.61%, recovering about half of its -10.26% fall last Friday. However, the broader equity mood was more cautious, and the S&P 500 (+0.30%) recovered only a small fraction of Friday’s -2.64% decline. Indeed, almost two-thirds of S&P constituents were lower on the day, with tech and energy the only sectors to post clear gains. And the Mag-7 (-0.06%) struggled to follow the recovery in chipmakers, with Apple (-1.89%) leading on the downside amid a lukewarm reaction to the latest generation of its AI platform.

The equity weakness was clearer in Europe. In part, that was because they’d closed before the worst of the US losses on Friday, so there wasn’t the same bounce back potential. But they were also more exposed to the oil price increase, so the STOXX 600 (-0.15%) fell for a second consecutive session. There were similar moves across Europe, including for the DAX (-0.58%) and the CAC 40 (-0.23%), but Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.63%) was the main outperformer.

Looking at the overnight data, in China both exports and imports grew at an accelerated rate in May, exceeding forecasts as surging demand for AI hardware mitigated the impact of disruptions caused by the war in Iran. Exports surged by +19.4% y/y in May, surpassing expectations of a +15% increase. This significant rise was partly fuelled by a weak performance last year, during the US-China trade war. Imports soared over +27% y/y in May, resulting in a trade surplus of $105.4 billion, the largest since January. Additionally, South Korea’s economy expanded by +1.8% in the January-March quarter compared to the previous three months, an increase from the 1.7% growth estimated in April. On an annual basis, Asia’s fourth-largest economy grew by 3.8%, revised upward from the earlier estimate of 3.6%.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include German industrial production for April, the US trade balance for April, and US existing home sales for May. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Moulin

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 08:38

Apple's Aura Is Starting To Crack

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Apple isn’t in trouble. The company still generates enormous amounts of cash, the iPhone remains one of the most successful consumer products ever created, and its business continues to grow. If you forced me to choose one ecosystem to live in for the next decade, I’d still probably choose Apple’s. But for the first time in a very long time, the company appears to be showing signs of something investors haven’t had to worry about for years: imperfection.

And in a world where Apple is eventually dethroned as one of the best companies in human history, the fall from grace would start with the smallest of signs. The smallest aberrations. The smallest…imperfections.

What made Apple special over the last two decades wasn’t necessarily its ability to invent products first. It was the company’s uncanny ability to enter markets late and still produce the best version of whatever it was building. The iPod wasn’t the first MP3 player, the iPhone wasn’t the first smartphone, and the Apple Watch wasn’t the first smartwatch. Apple repeatedly demonstrated that it could arrive after everyone else, simplify the experience, and ultimately dominate.

That’s why the company’s recent stumbles are worth paying attention to.

The first is artificial intelligence. In February of 2025, I wrote about a simple interaction I had with Siri while washing dishes. Curious about whether all the hype surrounding AI had finally filtered down into products I actually used, I asked my Apple HomePod a straightforward question: “How many days are in February?” Instead of answering, Siri informed me that it couldn’t help and offered to send web search results to my phone.

So imagine my surprise when I asked Siri how many days were in the month of February, and she retorted: “I’m sorry, I can’t answer that right now. Here are some responses I found on the web. Would you like me to send them to your phone?”

“Are you f**king kidding me?” I thought to myself.

I guess the joke is on me. What a fool I’ve been. I’ve been watching the news about artificial intelligence and commenting on how it relates to the stock market for more than a year now. Yet by prompting my Apple product with just a simple query, it responded as though I was asking for it to mine all the bitcoin in the world in under a second… and make me a turkey and Swiss on white bread with mayo at the same time.

At the time, the interaction felt ridiculous. The entire technology sector was busy explaining how artificial intelligence was about to transform civilization, yet Apple’s digital assistant couldn’t answer a question that most elementary school students know by memory. Looking back, that experience may have been more representative of Apple’s position than I realized.

Over the last two years, competitors like OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Meta have pushed aggressively forward while Apple has struggled to establish itself as a leader in the AI race. Recent reporting from Bloomberg suggests the company itself recognized the severity of the problem. According to the report, senior executives held internal discussions in early 2025 focused specifically on Apple’s AI shortcomings and the company’s growing concern that it had fallen behind. Whether or not one agrees with every detail of the reporting, the broader point remains difficult to ignore: Apple found itself reacting to a technological shift rather than driving it.

The second warning sign was Vision Pro. From the moment the headset was unveiled, I was skeptical…not because the technology wasn’t impressive, but because I couldn’t envision a realistic use case that would cause normal people to wear it regularly. Apple’s greatest successes have always integrated seamlessly into existing human behavior. The iPhone, AirPods, and Apple Watch all solved obvious problems and fit naturally into daily life. Vision Pro felt different. It felt like extraordinary engineering searching for a compelling consumer need. And it looked…f**king ridiculous.

The market’s response seems to have validated those concerns. Even supporters of the product generally describe it as a technological achievement rather than a commercial success. That’s an important distinction. Apple has historically excelled not just at building advanced products, but at building products people actually want. Vision Pro may ultimately evolve into something, but the first iteration did not look like the next iPhone.

And now, even some of Apple’s smaller decisions feel slightly out of character. The dedicated camera button on newer iPhones is a trivial example, but it’s illustrative. Instead of simplifying the user experience, the feature often seems to complicate it. I find myself accidentally triggering functions I don’t want far more often than I intentionally use the button. The issue isn’t the button itself; it’s what the button represents. Under Steve Jobs and Jony Ive, Apple’s philosophy often revolved around removing friction. More recently, some products feel as though features are being added simply because they can be.

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And now, as Apple prepares for a transition beyond Tim Cook, these questions become even more important.

Cook’s tenure will almost certainly go down as one of the most successful runs in corporate history. When he took over from Steve Jobs in 2011, Apple was worth roughly $350 billion. Today, it is measured in trillions. Under his leadership, the company transformed from a hardware giant into an ecosystem giant, built a services business that generates tens of billions in recurring revenue annually, expanded the wearables category, deepened customer loyalty, and became arguably the most important company in global capital markets.

In many respects, Cook accomplished the impossible. He inherited the most iconic CEO in modern business history and somehow made the company larger, more profitable, and more dominant. But the next CEO, John Ternus, won’t have the luxury of simply extending an existing winning streak.

For the first time in decades, Apple appears to be entering a new era with a few questions hanging over it. The company was late to recognize the significance of generative AI and has spent the last two years playing catch-up. Vision Pro, despite being an impressive technical achievement, failed to become the next great consumer platform many had hoped for.

Even some of Apple’s smaller product decisions increasingly feel evolutionary rather than revolutionary. Like Genmoji, for example. It’s clever, but it strikes me as the kind of novelty you use three times, show your friends once, and then never think about again. And what is that going to do for me when something functional and simple, like dictation while using AirPods, still doesn’t work.

None of these developments are existential. Apple still possesses the strongest ecosystem in consumer technology, a fiercely loyal customer base, and a services business that provides enormous stability and recurring cash flow. The company remains one of the world’s great businesses.

But maintaining dominance is often harder than achieving it in the first place.

The challenge facing Apple’s next leader isn’t fixing a broken company. It’s preserving the company’s king-of-the-hill status at a moment when competitors are moving quickly, artificial intelligence is reshaping the technology landscape, and Apple’s aura of inevitability has started to show the smallest of cracks.

That’s why Apple is worth watching. Not because it’s collapsing, but because the warning signs that precede corporate stagnation are often subtle at first. A missed trend here. A disappointing product launch there. A culture that gradually shifts from setting the agenda to reacting to it.

Apple may very well right the ship and remain the dominant technology company for another generation. Betting against the company has been a losing proposition for most of the last quarter century. But investors should keep an eye on it nonetheless.

Every great company eventually faces the question of whether it can continue defining the future or whether it will begin living off the success of its past. Apple hasn’t jumped the shark. It hasn’t lost its edge. It hasn’t surrendered its crown.

But AI is definitely the future, and Apple isn’t there yet. So, for the first time in a very long time, however, it’s reasonable to wonder if the cracks in Apple’s aura will become permanent down the road.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 08:20

From The City Of Angels To The City Of Zombies...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

The Jungle Drums Speak!

"Love that the crack heads on Skid Row are up on the issues, know the candidates, and are able to Make Their Voices Heard in between hits of meth."

- Peachy Keenan on X

Whaddaya know? Looks like the charismatic Nithya Raman has overtaken maverick candidate Spencer Pratt in the Los Angeles mayoral “jungle” primary because. . . jungle reasons. That is, the denizens of LA’s vast homeless encampments — once known as “hobo jungles” — apparently voted overwhelmingly by mail for the Harvard-credentialed champion of street-junkies in the Silver Lake, Echo Park, Los Feliz, Atwater, and Hollywood neighborhoods (SELAH) she represents on the LA City Council.

LA Mayoral Candidate, Nithya Ramen, Champion of the Down-and-Out

So, it will be a November runoff between the super-duper “progressive” incumbent Karen Bass, and merely super-progressive Ms. Ramen. Better reserve your U-Haul trailer ASAP, as the City of Angels completes its transformation to the City of Zombies. And no complaining, please. This is what you voted for.

By the way, what does “progressive” actually mean these days? Progress towards. . . what? The culminating disintegration of a civil polity? The concerted failure to govern a large, urban organism? Unconditional surrender to the forces of entropy? One might suspect a soupçon of racial animus in the mix, too, something of a middle-finger to this thing called white supremacy we hear so much about. It must be rooted out at all costs, including the cost of a place that a productive population once loved — the very people renting all those U-Hauls, dispersing out into the USA gloaming.

Of course, this “progressive” Democratic Party has transformed itself in a decade or so into an out-and-out racketeering operation, that is, to a criminal enterprise dedicated to the misappropriation of taxpayer money among its rank and file, many of whom are not citizens. The model is not unlike more primitive early versions, such as Boss Tweed’s ring in 19th century New York, or the gang under mayor James Curley, the “Rascal King” of Boston. The system was known as “patronage.” Voters were the party’s patrons, and the patrons were on the payroll. Some had actual party jobs. Some just got free stuff in exchange for their votes. They called it a “machine” because its operations became automatic, self-fulfilling.

There was one big difference, though: these earlier Democratic Party grifters, for all their moneygrubbing shenanigans, were American patriots. They celebrated a country so ostentatiously “free,” so fervently dedicated to upward mobility, that it made room for their garish political corruption. The Democratic machine of Los Angeles today is quite the opposite: It’s a faction that loathes and detests the American system and seeks sedulously to destroy it, even while grabbing as much loot as it can in the process.

Mayor Karen Bass was trained for that mission in Cuba. Beginning at age 19, in 1973, Ms. Bass made eight trips there with the Venceremos Brigade (founded in 1969 by the Lefty-left SDS) to “show solidarity with the Cuban revolution,” which, you might remember, was a straight-up communist revolution. One might infer, then, that Mayor Bass is a straight-up communist, with ambitions to destroy the capitalist city of Los Angeles, so as to replace it with a communist utopia — where all production (if there is any) is owned and controlled by the government, which then dispenses the fruits-of-production to the people, according to their needs, as officers of the government see fit.

In such a system, history shows, the people enjoy no ability to make decisions for themselves about what sort of work to pursue for their own improvement and well-being — what we call economic liberty. That’s all left to the political office-holders, the kommisars, the decision-makers, who tell everybody else what to do (because, you see, they know better). It has not worked too well in practice, as the collapse of Soviet Russia demonstrated, and the imminent collapse now of Cuba, will validate.

This is also exactly what you see in the aftermath of the Los Angeles fires of 2025. There was the fiasco of the fire itself in which everything that could go wrong, did go wrong, in the way of prevention and mitigation. The incompetence of Los Angeles city officials was so total — from the mayor’s absence in Africa, the fire chief’s cluelessness, the empty reservoirs, the broken fire hydrants, etc. — that Pacific Palisades and Altadena across town got completely destroyed. In the eighteen months since, the city’s bureaucracy (with “help” from the state) has made sure that next-to-nothing can be rebuilt. Since a large number of people employed in the movie industry lived in these places, and were left financially ruined, Karen Bass’s government has also neatly helped destroy the city’s signature business. . . a home run for communists!

Marxian economic theory is appealing to those who hate and oppose the natural fact that not all outcomes in human life are equal, who resent with red-hot passion the human tendency to social hierarchy, and work fanatically to defeat it. They never do, of course. In communist revolutions hierarchy always reorganizes itself — only within the party structure itself, while all extra-party human effort is outlawed. In California, as in the other “blue” states and cities, Democratic Party leaders perch in the upper branches of the social hierarchy while they cream-off all available revenue streams.

If you suspect there’s something shady about the California election system, you might be onto to something. President Trump thinks this is the case, and said so pretty forcefully on Sunday in his confab with the argumentative Kirsten Welker of NBC’s Meet the Press show. “There’s no evidence!” Ms. Welker repeated strenuously, of voting irregularity, either in this month’s California jungle primary, or in the 2020 national election. You think? I guess we’ll see about that.

Remember: former president Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela — home of the Smartmatic vote tabulation system — has been in US custody for months.

Do you suppose he might be trying to cut a deal for himself to avoid a very long prison sentence by disclosing what he knows about Smartmatic?

Do you suppose that Mr. Trump might know something about these ongoing negotiations?

Do you wonder if any of that has occurred to Kirsten Welker of Meet the Press?

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 08:00

Beijing Readies $297 Billion Data Center Buildout Blitz In Bid To Dominate AI Race

The US and China are locked in a series of races, with AI now sitting at the center of nearly all of them. This is a race not only to build the leading frontier models, but to deploy them across entire economies, unleash physical AI, and convert compute power into productivity, surveillance, military, and industrial advantage ahead of the 2030s. This is the new world we are entering, and it is moving incredibly fast. The current chapter of this story is the data center build-out phase. It will then eventually extend into space.

Goldman has already estimated that US hyperscalers will deploy $800 billion in capex this year alone on AI infrastructure. Across the Pacific, however, the scale of Beijing's data-center buildout had remained relatively opaque until now.

China is preparing to unleash a 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) data-center buildout phase over the next five years, according to a new Bloomberg News report, citing people familiar with the matter, as Beijing and Washington race to ensure their own tech giants are ahead in the frontier model race.  

The report said the National Development and Reform Commission is drafting plans for a network of interconnected data centers to be operated by state firms such as China Mobile and China Telecom.

These data centers are expected to rely heavily on domestic chip suppliers, including Huawei, for at least 80% of core technology. This is a move by Beijing to accelerate the development of its domestic chipmakers by sidelining Nvidia and AMD.

More color about the buildout:

The over-arching plan represents Beijing's most aggressive endeavor yet to lay the foundation for future Chinese AI development.

It recalls the undertakings of years past that marshalled resources to support national champions like Huawei, with the aim of replacing US technology. And it's a key prong of the "Six Networks" program announced earlier this year, covering construction of essential infrastructure spanning water and electricity to computing, one of the people said.

The report sent Chinese data-center stocks higher in the premarket: GDS Holdings rose by 5% and Vnet Group jumped 8%.

The US-China rivalry is extending well beyond the chip space. It should be viewed as a full-blown industrial race, and China's planned data-center buildout shows that Beijing is trying to fuse AI, power infrastructure, domestic chips, and state financing into a single national mobilization strategy.

Given that this is now a full-blown industrial race, Beijing's broader strategy is no longer limited to chips, data centers, and power infrastructure. It also extends into the domain of information.

The Bitcoin Policy Institute has warned of "three vectors of foreign influence," including CCP state media, the Singham network, and foreign-billionaire dark money, behind elements of the anti-AI data center campaign in the US.

If correct, that would suggest China's playbook is not just to accelerate its own AI buildout, but to slow, divide, and politically constrain America's.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 07:45

"Device-Level" Nudity Detection: UK Gov't Blackmailing Public Into Digital ID

Authored by Kit Knightly via OffGuardian,

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced plans, in a speech earlier today, to introduce "device-level controls" that will prevent children from viewing, sending or taking naked photographs:

This government will not stand by while children are put at risk online.

Today I am calling on the tech companies to introduce device-level controls to prevent children from taking, sharing or viewing nude images.

And if they don't act, we will.

— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) June 8, 2026

According to Justice Minister Catherine Atkinson, the UK will become "the first country where it will be impossible for children to take, share or view naked pictures"

The UK will be the first country where it will be impossible for children to take, share or view naked pictures, a justice minister tells @LeahBoleto.

The government says tech companies must stop this happening within three months or they'll be forced to act through legislation. pic.twitter.com/ZQ3MWobQ2X

— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 8, 2026

The only way this is even close to enforceable is if one or more of the following measures are in place:

• You must verify your age by linking your digital devices to your ID.
• You must allow the government - or whatever private third-party agency the government employs - access to your phone's data and files at all times.
• You must allow third-party software to scan every attempted photo.

It means "nudity detection" on every app on the device, at all times. There's literally no other way of doing it. From the government's website earlier today [emphasis added]:

Apple recently introduced age checks for iPhone users, making it the first company to activate safety features by default for those who are not verified as over 18. This is a significant step forward following the government's commitments to work with industry, and one this announcement builds on.

Despite this, the nudity detection is not applied to the camera or broader apps, third-party messaging services, or search functions, meaning children can still take, view, share and save nude images. The government therefore wants Apple and Google to block nudity across the whole device by default

...but don't worry, just verify your age via digital ID or biometrics or whatever, and the government won't look at your internet history or share your nudes.

Over-18s will still be able to view adult content by providing proof of age.

It's the basest of blackmail, that's all.

The UK government wants to make it mandatory that everybody verifies their age by linking their ID to their smartphones or other digital devices.

That's ALL they want.

We all know what this is really about.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 07:20

Goldman Hikes Obesity Drug Market Forecast As Oral GLP-1s Go Mass Market

The global weight-loss drug market is now expected to reach $114 billion by 2030, up from Goldman's prior $101 billion forecast, as analysts cite faster adoption of oral obesity pills, stronger demand outside the U.S., and improved affordability that is expanding the patient pool.

Goldman analysts led by Asad Haider and James Quigley laid out four main drivers behind the upgraded 2030 anti-obesity drug TAM forecast (previous forecast made in Dec. 2025):

1. Higher oral vs. injectable share and a higher oral TAM. With oral NBRx (new-to-brand) prescriptions (a leading indicator) now 40-50% following the strong launch of Novo's Wegovy pill, we now expect orals to represent 40% ($46bn) of the 2030 global revenue TAM (vs. 35%/$35bn prior).

2. Shifting sales mix within orals. We balance our share splits with Novo's Wegovy pill now 38% (vs. 16% prior), LLY's Foundayo now 48% (54% prior) and "other" now 14% (vs. 30% prior). We now forecast Wegovy peak global sales of $17.4bn (vs. prior $8bn) and Foundayo 2030 sales of $22bn (vs. prior $19bn).

3. Increased OUS penetration and a higher OUS TAM. Per stronger-than-expected OUS ramp for LLY's Mounjaro, we now forecast 2030 total OUS obesity sales of $48bn vs. $39bn prior, driving most of the higher 2030 Global TAM from $101bn to $114bn.

4. Updated pricing assumptions across channels. We lower pricing assumptions in the US DTC channel by 20% (to now $287 vs. prior $355) driven by lower prices across the board and higher oral mix shift.

Haider expects Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to control 82% of the global GLP-1 market share by the end of the decade.

The forecast assumes a larger shift towards oral obesity drugs.

Oral obesity drugs are expanding market share.

The oral Wegovy pill has had greater momentum since launch compared to Lilly's Foundayo.

Wegovy and Foundayo to dominate oral obesity drugs in the new forecast.

Medicare is expanding the patient pool. Goldman expects obesity coverage expansion to begin on July 1, through the GLP-1 MFN deal, modeling a potential 17 million-patient opportunity over time and $2.6 billion in Medicare-channel obesity sales in 2026, mostly skewed toward injectables.

The GLP-1 market outside the US is also set to become a major factor.

Rise of GLP-1s in China.

Goldman's revised GLP-1 TAM model for 2030 suggests obesity drugs are evolving from high-priced injectables into mass-market oral pills, broader international adoption, Medicare access, and lower consumer prices.

GLP-1 weight-loss drug headlines dominated the news cycle since 2021, with the initial hype cycle propelling Novo Nordisk shares in Copenhagen to record highs. That momentum has since sharply reversed as competitors and copycat drugs begin reshaping the market.

The question now, and certaintly analyst Quigley, is simple:

When does Novo finally bottom?

Professional subscribers can read the full GLP-1 TAM note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 06:55