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Since Lockdowns, A 12% GDP Loss; Half Of US Dollar Purchasing Power Stolen

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

Many of us have had the intuition that the economic damage from 2020 – including industrial stoppages, monetary printing, supply-chain disruptions, extended school closures, and general population demoralization – was in fact far greater than official statistics indicate. 

What follows will shore up this intuition, using new techniques and numbers from an innovative project called RealityIndex.co. 

It’s true that official data is bad enough, showing a 26% loss in purchasing power, slow growth in output, and only marginal improvements in real income. The labor participation rate and worker/population ratio never fully recovered and continue to fall.

Output has been lackluster. It’s supposedly running 2.3% which is about half the postwar norm for US economic performance. It feels like a general downshift. Official data shows a brief recession in 2020 followed by gradual economic recovery overall. 

But is this even true? In 2024, Brownstone Institute commissioned a study (by E.J. Antoni and Peter St. Onge) that concluded that we have never really entered recovery after 2022. We’ve been in a technical recession since that time. They got this with some limited adjustments of price data bumped up against output data. That study was met with brutal attacks, with every critic falling back on official data and doubting the supposed extremism of the conclusion. 

That’s where matters have stood even as reports pour in concerning broken labor markets, no raises for 1 in 4 professional-class workers, and sketchy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data that seems barely above zero thanks mainly to medical-sector subsidies, government spending, and social services. Then there are the learning losses showing dramatic declines in test scores among affected students. 

We are left with real questions. How can consumer sentiment be at historic lows given that the overall data seems to raise no loud alarms?

In the meantime, Artificial Intelligence has come along to make these complicated calculations possible, ones that seek to discern and delineate the huge gaps between official data and reality. The goal is to come up with real data concerning real prices, sans the many different methods that the Department of Labor uses to adjust price changes. 

For example, housing prices are not measured directly but rather converted to owners’ equivalent rent (OER). Medical service prices are adjusted for consumption, not premiums or final bills. When consumers substitute one good for another, that is also factored in. When the quality of a good or service improves, the statisticians apply what they called hedonic adjustments, which are invariably designed to minimize price increases and never run the other direction. 

Where does this leave those of us who are looking for a plain index of prices? A veil has been put over that basic question and answer, such that we don’t know for sure. This matters tremendously for issues like raises, examining cost of living increases, taxes, and pension payments. Everything is adjusted for inflation to convert it to real valuations but if we don’t have a clear number, what are we to do?

This is why we should be thrilled about a new study/service called the Reality Index. You are free to browse the site yourself and examine every aspect of the method. Essentially, the site owner, an independent intellectual in Madrid, Tom Elliott, has deployed tools of AI to wholly reconstruct price indices in a way that is consistent with actual prices. His results are absolutely eye-popping. I’ve examined the method here in detail and found no fault. 

The Wall Street Journal has also taken notice. This is good news and raises the possibility that we can finally get to the truth. 

The core of the problem is a constantly changing methodology in official data. The formula was changed eight times over 35 years. All the changes seem technical and vaguely justifiable, once explained. Adding them all up, you get wild distortions in the data that the index is supposed to reveal. All these changes came home to roost in the great inflation of 2021-2024, which might be entering a second wave right now. 

In 1983, owners’ equivalent rent replaced basic housing prices. The new formula was based on an estimate of what homeowners would have to pay to rent their own homes. But in real life, people pay mortgages, property taxes, and home prices. When home prices and mortgage rates rise faster than rents, the new formula understates the housing inflation real households face. 

In 1996, the Boskin Commission announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was overstated because people substitute higher-priced goods for lower-priced goods which are too slow in being calculated. The agency made the correction to eliminate the bias in the fixed basket of goods. The problem is that every single adjustment ended up forcing the reported rate to be less than a plain addition of the same goods over time. 

In 1998, there was a new fashion for hedonic adjustments. This stemmed from an observation that quality is always improving, especially in digital goods and computer functioning. The idea is that you might be paying the same or even more but you are getting more bang for your buck with quality shifts. You guessed it: hedonic adjustments drew the inflation rate lower. Notably, hedonic adjustments never run the other way, raising prices when quality decreases. 

In 1999, a geometric mean formula replaced arithmetic mean for most CPI components. This was intended to capture substitution effects. This was the change that ended up disguising the increase in medical service costs. By looking at consumed services rather than actual prices, the inflation rate in this sector ended up burying inflationary trends. This highly technical adjustment completely ignored all the ways in which substitution is a behavioral adaptation to inflation, not a reduction in the inflation experienced. 

In 2002, we got a continuation of this same method with new “chained CPI” which changes the basket weighting based on new purchasing patterns. Sure, if people buy less beef and more chicken, the household will experience inflation in a different way. But this ignores the manner in which the substitutions themselves are a response to higher prices. In 2017, the new calculation was applied to taxes causing people to pay more than they otherwise would have under the old method. 

In 2018, the hedonic adjustment strategy was expanded to a huge new range of products including smartphones, residential telephone services, internet services, and cable and satellite television. In 2020, at the same time the composition of M1 was changed and not retrospectively applied such that the data is essentially useless. Following money supply data became more difficult. Then in 2024, the Bureau of Labor Statistics stopped looking at the actual cost of medical services and started only looking at claims, completing the consumption-only bias against actual posted prices. In 2025, a month went by with no data collection at all. 

So what happens when we strip all this away and examine actual prices as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, without all the many adjustments? We find that a basket of goods and services that cost $100 in 1980 costs $515 per the Reality Index in 2025. The official CPI reports only $391. 

That means that real prices have run 32% higher over 45 years than the government reports. Over a 55-year window, the Reality Index ran 54.4% faster than CPI. 

To put it another way, consider the loss of purchasing power since 1980. According to the CPI, the loss has been to make $1 in 1980 worth only 26 cents. According to the Reality Index, the loss is greater: $1 in 1980 is now worth only 19 cents. By any standard, that is a shocking devaluation. All of this became much worse starting with lockdowns. 

There is much more work to do with this method. The charts could be interactive. They can also be set for real-time updates. They will be if Elliott continues to develop this. He should. There might even be commercial value in this. 

Think about the implications. Isolating from the beginning of the Covid period to the present, Elliott’s data estimates as much as a 40% loss in purchasing power over six years. Or perhaps closer to 50%. Here is a zoom in of the above chart covering 2019 to the present.

This seems correct to me. Government data, meanwhile, logs only a 26% loss. That’s a massive gap between the official data and what prices actually reveal. With an AI re-rendering that tracks purchasing power – the flipside of the increase of prices – we get numbers closer to 50%. That means that Covid cut the value of the dollar in terms of goods and services to half its former value.

I asked AI to map this out in terms of year-over-year changes in prices. CPI shows a peak in 2022 followed by a decline in the rate of increase. Reality Index shows that the devaluation actually intensified and never fell below 6%. This explains so much about consumer sentiment and political shifts. People feel it even if official data never revealed it. This kind of chart forces a rethinking of the history of the last six years.

There are still larger implications. We measure national output with the Gross Domestic Product, a national income statistic used since the 1930s. For output data, it would make no sense to report it in nominal terms without factoring in inflation. As a result, the GDP is usually reported in real terms, with an inflation adjustment that is continually compounded on an annual basis. 

Elliott’s own data – which is shocking enough – did not go into the implications for GDP. But I was able to use a simple AI tool to make those adjustments, adding the corrected price index as the deflator metric. 

The result is rather astounding. The recession of 2020 never really ended in a sustained way. Charted by hard numbers and then by percent change, you gain a very different picture of present levels of output. It causes one to completely rethink the last six years. 

The official definition of recession is two quarters of declining real GDP. In revised data, we’ve had consistently negative GDP in all but three quarters since summer of 2022. In those three quarters, output barely rose above zero. Mostly real GDP has been falling, a recession without end. 

Overall, Grok AI estimates a loss of 5-12% of GDP from 2019 to present using Reality Index numbers. Sorry but read that again. Instead of any recovery, we’ve seen as much as double-digit declines in GDP overall since 2020. This is the cumulative loss spread out over six years. 

That’s roughly half of the losses of the full period of the Great Depression, which was more catastrophic than people know. Most research from the 1930s, for example by George Selgin, shows that this was not a normal business cycle but a structural hit tracing to the very coercive measures designed to fix the problem. Price controls and market disruptions made a bad situation far worse. This is precisely the sort of hit that should worry us the most. 

The lockdowns were a similar situation: a massive exogenous shock to commerce, accompanied by a huge devaluation of the currency. It amounted to a gigantic transfer of wealth to elites, the largest in history, followed by a destruction of wealth of the middle and lower classes. 

At least during the Great Depression, people knew it was happening. It was officially documented. Our times are different. We have heard nothing for six years except happy talk about economic recovery. Based on real data, the opposite has happened, most tracing to the disastrous lockdowns of 2020. 

The beauty of this data is that it is subject to replication. Anyone can look at the methodology and disagree. Be my guest. From what I can see, the actual picture is far closer to the reality that most people are experiencing. 

In other words, that only one in four workers has had a nominal raise in five years barely scratches the surface. The reality could be that we’ve lost as much as 12% of national output since the lockdown era, along with a halving of the currency value. It’s somehow worse that we are only now able to document this. 

Also, I would like to see his methods applied to my own concern over effective household income per hour of work. We keep hearing that household income is rising in real terms without considering that it generally takes two incomes to provide what one once did. It won’t do to pretend that two incomes in a single household is double the income when one person has been drafted into the workforce to sustain living standards. 

Adding that consideration in here, and the dramatic change in household remuneration between 1950 and 1990, would be very revealing. After all, only 1 in 5 households (with children under 18) had two income streams in 1950 where it is 3 in 5 today. That is effectively a diminution of wages per household hour and not an increase in income. Add that consideration and you would generate a chart of declining living standards in the decades before lockdowns delivered the final coup de grâce. 

And that is where we are today. Households are scrambling to keep the bills paid while juggling children and domestic life while running from job to job to keep the flow going as best they can. Meanwhile, they money they earn has less buying power than ever. It’s no wonder consumer sentiment is rock bottom. 

It is long past time for this technical work to be done. What Tom Elliott has provided is what index numbers should provide: clean and stable comparisons of the same or similar products over time, no adjustments, refinements, and manipulations. Run those numbers against conventional output numbers and you produce a very different picture of economic performance since 2020. 

We’ve lived so long with distorted statistics. It fascinates me that the person who finally did it is an independent data expert in Spain rather than an employed academic in the US. That itself is revealing.

The big picture is that the lockdowns, not only nationally but globally, were far more catastrophic for us economically than has been generally admitted or recognized. It is not unusual in the history of economics for the really bad news to emerge years and even decades after an exogenous shock such as war. 

We would rather not wait that long. The crisis is too real and the public knows, even if the official data does not admit the truth. 

Lockdowns were a kind of war on the population. The economic carnage might have sliced off half of the purchasing power of the dollar and cut output by as much as 12% over six years (in real terms, leaving aside missed counterfactual growth on the previous trajectory), even as labor participation never recovered and continues to fall. 

Did Covid kick off a kind of permanent recession? How many decades must pass before we admit what happened? More precisely, how much longer will it take before the public mind recognizes what they did to us? 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 06:30

These Are The World's Most Prosperous Countries

The world’s richest countries are not always the most prosperous.

As Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld details below, according to the Atlantic Council’s 2026 Prosperity Index, the world’s most prosperous countries tend to combine economic strength with high living standards.

Meanwhile, the U.S. places 38th overall, far below many smaller advanced economies, highlighting the gap between wealth creation and broader quality of life.

Europe Leads Global Prosperity Rankings

Europe dominates the rankings, claiming 30 of the top 40 spots. Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and Sweden all place in the global top five.

With a GDP per capita of $90K, top-ranked Norway benefits from a resource-rich economy in which oil revenues are channeled into its $2.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund. Having doubled in size over the past decade, the fund helps finance public services such as healthcare and education while supporting long-term economic stability.

High-ranking Iceland and Denmark also combine expansive social programs with competitive business environments and high levels of public trust. Along with their smaller populations, these factors can support stronger overall quality-of-life outcomes.

The rankings below measure how effectively countries convert wealth into broader living standards, including healthcare, education, equality, minority well-being, and environmental quality.

Notably, Central European economies such as Slovenia (#10) and Czechia (#12) outperform many larger and wealthier peers. Strong performances in equality, healthcare, and education help these countries rank ahead of major economies including Germany (#13) and France (#23).

Their performance suggests that prosperity is shaped not only by national wealth, but also by how evenly resources and opportunities are distributed across society.

Singapore Leads Asia in Prosperity

Singapore ranks 18th globally, standing out for its high GDP per capita of $93K and strong public infrastructure. It also has one of the highest life expectancies in the world.

Its ranking reflects decades of state-led investment in housing, healthcare, transportation, and education, helping transform Singapore into one of the world’s most efficient and competitive economies.

Overall, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan all rank in the top 30, scoring well economically but often lower than Northern Europe on equality and social indicators. At the same time, aging populations, rising housing costs, and intense work cultures continue to weigh on broader well-being across several advanced Asian economies.

Why the U.S. Ranks Behind 37 Other Countries

The U.S. ranks 38th overall despite being the world’s largest economy.

The country scores relatively poorly on several quality-of-life indicators, including inequality, environmental performance, and access to opportunity among minority groups. It also ranks 46th globally in life expectancy, the lowest among comparable high-income nations. That gap has continued to widen over time.

The ranking underscores a broader paradox: while the U.S. remains a global leader in innovation, capital markets, and economic output, those advantages have not translated evenly into health outcomes or social mobility.

Prosperity Is About More Than Wealth

The 2026 rankings reinforce a growing global reality that economic strength alone no longer guarantees high living standards. Increasingly, the world’s most prosperous countries are those that combine wealth creation with strong institutions, accessible healthcare, social mobility, and sustained investment in citizens’ well-being.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the top 50 economies by GDP in 2026.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 05:45

5 Future Scenarios For Post-Conflict Iran

Authored by Christian Milord via The Epoch Times,

There likely are more than five scenarios that Iranians could opt for as hostilities unwind, but the following five visions represent the paths Iran could take this year. Will 2026 onward become the Third Islamic Republic, following the first (1979-1989) and the second (1989-2026)? We can only speculate on the outcome of this third evolution, which might or might not be powered by clerics.

First, in the fluid situation on the ground in Iran, There are many forces at work. When the dust clears, Iran might fall right back into the same rut it has traversed since 1979. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei might be at the top of the pyramid, while President Masoud Pezeshkian and members of the Assembly of Experts, Cabinet, Courts, Guardian Council, and Parliament will appear to remain loyal to the ideology of militant Shia Islam. Over 80 percent of Iranians are Shia, while the remainder are adherents of Sunni Islam, the Baha'i faith, Christianity, and inter-religious practitioners.

In this scenario, the dreaded Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would continue to hold sway as a parallel military force to the national armed forces (Artesh) of Iran - which is by now also fully under the control of the Islamic Republic. While similar to the oppressive prior Mukhabarat (internal intelligence/security) in Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the Assad dynasty in Syria, the IRGC has both an external and internal arm that metes out its own version of justice abroad and at home. Once again, Iranians would be forced to look over their shoulder and censor their own behavior. The regime would rebuild its military weapons arsenal, fund foreign terror proxies, and manipulate the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint with inspections and tolls.

Next, when the conflict concludes and a ceasefire holds, balkanization of the nation might unfold. In Iran, there are large numbers of Balochs, Kurds, Turkmen, etc., who will compete to defend their own interests in a country divided by a limited economic pie. It will be difficult for the regime to rebuild its military arsenal following months of devastation.

Third, following a tenuous ceasefire and shuttle diplomacy, Iran will descend into civil war. There are parallels between Iran's current status and Syria under the rule of Bashar al-Assad (2000-2024). Both paranoid regimes have had little trust in their own citizens to handle freedom and opportunity. Bashar was far more brutal than his father, Hafez al-Assad (1971-2000), and his harsh measures against protests plunged Syria into civil conflict for thirteen years (2011-2024).

Apparently, Mojtaba Khamenei is more hardline than his father, and as supreme leader he would attempt to crush any voices for democracy and justice. His interlocking relationship with the IRGC would help to pave the way to widespread oppression. The outcome of this civil war would be difficult to predict since Iran has a much larger population than Syria, and periodic demands for civil and economic reform often unfold in several urban areas.

Fourth, If a ceasefire is effective and the free flow of commerce commences through the Strait of Hormuz, will Iranians look to the past as a guide to build a brighter future? Will they reject the excesses of the Islamic Republic and seek to create greater economic opportunity and equality for women? It appears as if a large portion of Iranians would favor exiled diaspora leaders such as Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as a transitional figure to assist internal reformers in shaping a representative government. Of course, the brutal IRGC would attempt to thwart any reformist movement.

Fifth, this last scenario offers some hope. Are the remnants of the Islamic Republic leadership capable of turning away from permanent conflict? Through intense negotiations with several stakeholders, there is a breakthrough to possible peace and security. Instead of merely paying lip service to basic reforms, Iran's leadership would agree to allow for greater freedoms for women, hold open elections, and promote economic growth.

That would include discarding kangaroo court trials that deny rights to Iranians who are arrested. While Iran doesn't have a history of democracy, incremental baby steps in that direction could occur for the sake of Iran's future prosperity and security. The regime would agree to cease funding foreign terror proxies, surrender the half ton of enriched uranium that's underground, halt the production of long range ballistic missiles, and free up the Strait of Hormuz to global commerce.

In this scenario, it's possible that former Presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mohammed Khatami, and Hassan Rouhani would be consulted on reforms that formerly were vetoed by Parliament and the supreme leader. Incrementally normalizing relations with Israel and other regional states could gradually unfold, although signing up to the Abraham Accords might be a tall order. If this fifth option fails, Iran might be doomed to repeat history once again.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 05:00

Netanyahu Confirms Israel 'Holding Fire, For Now' - Rejects Iran Red Line To Not Attack Lebanon Summary

• Israel has rejected Iran's warning not to attack Lebanon, though aerial operations appear paused.
• Israeli officials say strikes on Iran being halted at President Trump's request to 'stop shooting'. Netanyahu confirms attacks halted 'for now'.
• Iran FM accuses US of cooperating with Washington: "No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States" (Foreign Ministry spox).
• Iran's sprawling Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex bombed by Israeli Air Force.
• Houthis seek to close/threaten Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for Israeli-linked passage: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea.

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 17% · No 84%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Israel Rejects Iran Attempt to Assert Red Line on Not Attacking Lebanon

The Lebanon crisis remains a tug-of-war flashpoint between Tehran and Tel Aviv. The Iranians want to force a situation where any broader peace deal with the US is linked directly to achieving permanent truce in Lebanon. However, the US and Israel have consistently sought to thwart these attempts. According to Bloomberg:

Israel will strike Hezbollah in Beirut in retaliation for any further cross-border attacks by the Iranian-backed Lebanese faction, Israel’s defense minister says in a statement, rejecting a threat by Tehran to resume missile salvos in solidarity with Lebanon.

“Any Iranian attempt to link Lebanon to Iran in attacking Israel will be met with a forcible response, as happened yesterday,” Defense Minister Israel Katz says, referring to an air strike in the Lebanese capital which prompted Iranian missile fire against Israeli targets. If Hezbollah attacks Israel’s northern communities “it will lead to an attack on the Dahieh,” he says, referring to a Beirut suburb where support for Hezbollah is strong.

Still, Israel has by late Monday (local) made clear it is halting attacks on Iran and Lebanon 'for now' after President Trump called for immediate restraint.

UPDATE: In their Sunday call, Trump asked a Bibi not to attack Iran. Bibi wanted to respond, so Trump said to keep any retaliation limited and don't let the conflict escalate.

Israel attacked Iran.

On Monday, Trump asked Bibi to end attacks on Iran. Bibi agreed.

No yelling.

— Alex Ward (@alexbward) June 8, 2026 Israel Halts Iran Attacks 'For Now'

"After Iran attacked Israel, I instructed the IDF to strike military and economic targets throughout Iran," Netanyahu said in a fresh Monday statement. "For now, the fire has been contained, because after we struck the terrorist regime in Tehran, it ceased attacking us. If the terrorist regime in Iran makes the mistake of attacking us again, we will respond with force." The key lines from Netanyahu:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Israel had stopped its attacks on both Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, after the Iranian military announced it was halting operations.

In a brief statement Monday, Netanyahu said "Iran and Hezbollah are weaker than ever, and we are stronger than ever - but our struggle with them is not over yet."

Having bombarded both adversaries, he added, "right now, the fire has been halted."

Iran's military headquarters responds: "Should aggression and hostile actions continue—including in southern Lebanon—far more severe and forceful measures than before will follow," it said, according to Iranian state media.

And in a clear sign of the exchange of strikes having ceased:

Iran says flight restrictions have been lifted with airspace returning to normal conditions: state media

Israel Pauses Iran Strikes At Trump's Request

Israel's N12 News is reporting that Israel is halting strike on Iran at President Trump's request. There are widespread initial reports that Israeli forces are indeed pausing the attacks, which persisted overnight through Monday morning, and included attack on a major petrochemical complex. However, the latest Israeli messaging has included a warning on the Lebanon front, per Bloomberg:

Senior Israeli official says Israel is stopping strikes in Iran at Donald Trump’s request, but confirms operations in southern Lebanon will continue at full intensity in the coming days. The official also warns that Dahieh in Beirut could be targeted if attacks on Israeli settlements and civilians continue.

There are also emerging reports (via CBS) that Trump did not order any US defensive efforts to protect Israel from the latest Iranian ballistic missile attacks - which were the first against Israel since the early April ceasefire.

Meanwhile, in a fresh message from Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran says "Without a doubt ... the actions of the Zionist regime in the region cannot be separated from U.S. policies." Tehran is rejecting the attempts of the Trump administration to distance the US from Israeli actions: "No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States," Baqaei added.

Trump: 'Stop Shooting'

A big question remains is if this flare-up in major fighting, which has featured the first direct attacks between Iran and Israel since the April ceasefire took effect, will be short-lived or whether it will endure and escalate into sustained war.

So far the situation is showing signs it could be short-lived, after early Monday morning President Trump urged Israel and Iran to immediately stop "shooting" in a Truth Social post. He also expressed that this musts be done "quickly" and is still talking up a "final" peace deal - which at this moment looks as distant as ever. Iran is signaling it is ready to get back to ceasefire, but Israel is again threatening the Beirut suburbs.

Here's what Trump wrote in a couple of brief Monday posts:

Israel and Iran must immediately stop “shooting.” ...and:

Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Big Round of Israeli Retaliation Airstrikes on Iran

Videos of Israel's further daytime attacks on sites across Iran have emerged, after Iran sent ballistic missile waves on Israel on Sunday, in response for the IDF renewing airstrikes on Beirut.

BREAKING NEWS: Israel is striking targets in Iran.

The Israeli Air Force carried out heavy strikes across Iran. About 15 targets in total. pic.twitter.com/3dlaht2nm5

— Hananya Naftali (@HananyaNaftali) June 8, 2026

For now, Tehran is claiming the current round is over, with Iran's armed forces having announced the end of military operations against Israel while warning of "harsher" attacks if Israel resumes strikes on Lebanon, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters spelled out the Islamic Republic's latest justification: "Following the aggressions and acts of mischief by the brutal Zionist regime in southern Lebanon and the Dahieh area, carried out with the support of criminal America, the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in support of the oppressed people of Lebanon, delivered a painful response to this regime." And there's a new message from Iranian President Pezeshkian, saying:

"Diplomacy and defense are the two wings of national power; we have neither left the field nor the negotiating table... We will defend the rights of the nation with authority and will not retreat in the face of any threat."

Massive Iranian Petrochemical Complex Hit

Israel, however, made sure to leave a massive mark before any cooling off. The Israeli military confirmed it attacked Iran's sprawling Mahshahr petrochemical complex on Monday, marking its first strike on the critical asset since the April 7 ceasefire agreement.

The Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex, as it is formally known, is widely seen as one of the crown jewels of Iran's energy sector. Tucked near the southern city of Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini - a vital industrial port on the Persian Gulf - the sprawling complex consists of more than 50 separate petrochemical plants producing roughly 72 million tons of products annually, according to Iran’s oil ministry.

The Israel Defense Force (IDF) released color footage of strikes on an Iranian air defense system in Iran. Per the IDF release, Israel has gained relative air superiority over western and central Iran and have struck a number of air defense systems in these areas. pic.twitter.com/WjEPzqSu3H

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 8, 2026

Iranian state media reported that one specific installation, the Karun petrochemical plant, was hit twice Monday morning. While a local official told Fars that no casualties were reported, the facility sustained notable structural damage.

IRGC: 'Dangerous Game'

The response from Iran's elite military branch was immediate and ominous. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps condemned the precise strike as a "dangerous game" - openly threatening to expand the scope of how it retaliates against Israel, explicitly noting that future targets will include energy-related sites.

Israel already compiled a visual strike map showing targets it hit in Iran overnight into Monday:

The latest wave of strikes in Iran involved dozens of fighter jets targeting the regime's strategic defense systems. pic.twitter.com/A2mBGwd9LU

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 8, 2026

With both sides testing the absolute limits of the April truce, the macro risk to regional energy infrastructure has officially rocketed back to the forefront, as Trump desperately tries - or is at least appearing to - walk the two sides back from the ledge.

Vital Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (Red Sea) Under Threat: Houthis Declare "Total Ban" On Israeli Ships

On the maritime chokepoint front, Iran-backed Houthis declared a full ban on Israeli vessels in the southern Red Sea, warning that any Israeli ship (or linked ship) will be seen as a military target:

"First: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements to be military targets for our Armed Forces from the moment this statement is issued."

The statement continued, "Second: We affirm that we will meet escalation with escalation, and that our military operations will escalate in line with events, the battle, and in conjunction with the axis of Jihad and Resistance."

The announcement is similar to the Houthis' late-2023 campaign, when rebel forces attacked ships linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports in or around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. They framed the attacks as retaliation for the Gaza war. Potential disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea will only add to the headaches for global maritime trade, as it is a critical sea route for Asia-to-Europe commerce and Gulf energy exports.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 18 miles wide, making commercial vessels extraordinarily vulnerable to suicide drones, missiles, mines, and small boats.

More Headlines/Latest Developments

via Newsquawk...

WEEKEND MIDDLE EAST RECAP

• Israel conducted airstrikes on a couple of apartment buildings in Beirut’s Dahiya district on Sunday, in what the military described as targeting a Hezbollah command centre.
• Iran launched four waves of strikes against Israel on Sunday evening in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Beirut, which it stated ‘crossed all red lines’, while it threatened devastating blows if Israel expands Lebanon operations. Iran signalled a halt to attacks if Israel refrains from strikes, but vowed stronger retaliation if Israel strikes back, and it closed its western airspace until further notice.
• IRGC said that the Ramat David Airbase was hit by ballistic missiles and that future attacks are to target US-Israel regional assets, while Tehran Times noted reports of missiles being fired at a US airbase in Jordan.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu was reported to be holding security consultations following the latest developments, while the Israeli military said the missiles launched by Iran were intercepted, although Iran claimed a successful strike on northern Israel.
• US President Trump said he was supposed to announce that a deal with Iran would be signed this week, and now this is happening, while he called for Iran to end the missile fire and return to talks. Trump also stated that he was not happy about Israel striking Beirut and that Israel’s attacks were not coordinated with the US. Furthermore, Trump said he would call Israeli PM Netanyahu to tell him not to attack Iran in response, and noted that they are close to a final deal, which he doesn’t want to blow up.
• US attacked Iranian coastal surveillance sites on Saturday after shooting down drones launched towards the Strait of Hormuz. US military said that Iran had fired missiles and drones towards Kuwait and Bahrain, while drones were also fired towards 4 commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran Supreme Leader’s military adviser Rezaei said Iran’s attack on Israel on Sunday serves as a warning to Israel to cease strikes on Beirut, while he warned of a further response to aggression.

EUROPEAN MORNING IRAN CONFLICT UPDATES

• US President Trump posted "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting."
• US President Trump said Israeli PM Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept whatever deal the US negotiates with Iran because he calls the shots. Trump stated that Iran's strikes had not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations and he thinks the deal is going on, but we will see what happens, and he would consider a commando raid on Iran if a deal failed, according to FT.
• US told Israel to hold off for a few days to allow space for a deal, with a joint action plan to proceed if talks fail. It was separately reported by Tasnim, citing Israel's Channel 12, that Israeli PM Netanyahu tried to object to US President Trump's request not to react to Iran during a phone call, but in the end accepted it.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Washington is responsible for the current situation because it is a party to the ceasefire agreement, and the ceasefire has been continuously and repeatedly violated by the opposing sides. Action is to be taken whenever deemed necessary to defend the country's interests. On the ceasefire agreement, the spokesperson said that ending the war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement, and when this clause is violated, the diplomatic track is also affected. Furthermore, he said the message exchange is ongoing with the US and Pakistan's Interior Minister visited Tehran to push negotiations. Lastly, he said they are not talking about the issues of enriched uranium or enrichment at this stage.
• Iran's IRGC said that by taking action against civilian targets and targeting oil industries, Israel has targeted a dangerous game which will encompass all energy targets in the region and consequences for the global economy belong to the US. Iran's IRGC further said that we are ready to carry out operations on all fronts, and our response has been planned based on various enemy scenarios.
• An Iranian source said that "Iran is prepared for a long-term war... The coming days will show that the calculations of the Israelis and Americans are always wrong", Tasnim reported.
• Iranian Supreme Leader senior adviser said on Sunday that Tehran threatened to block the Bab-al Mandab if Israel escalates its attack, according to CNN citing IRIB.
• Yemen's Houthis announce a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea. The Houthis also claimed responsibility for a missile attack in Israel and said banning navigation to the enemy is a preliminary step and the group is prepared for additional steps against any escalation.
• Israeli projectile hit an Iranian petrochemical plant, with the Karun petrochemical plant damaged in Khuzestan province.
• Israel's army expects the exchange of strikes with Iran to continue for several days, Al Hadath reported.
• Israeli Minister Smotrich is expected to propose at the next Security Cabinet meeting that Israel should respond to every Iranian missile launched at Israel by striking 20-30 buildings in Beirut's Dehaya district, journalist Stein reported.
• Israeli military said the Israeli Air Force struck military targets belonging to the Iranian regime in western and central Iran.
• Throughout Monday in Iran, there have been reports of loud explosions in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Kermanshah and Karaj, while explosions were reportedly heard in southern Lebanon. Additionally, there were some arab sources reporting explosions at the Prince Sultan Air Base in central Saudi Arabia, however involvement was denied by Iran.
• Drone attack reported from Yemen towards Israeli targets, according to Tasnim.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 04:35

Watch: French Fighter Jets Shoot Down Kamikaze Drone Over Latvia

There's been another 'mystery' drone shootdown incident over Baltic and Eastern European airspace early Monday.

Latvia's military and Foreign Affairs Minister confirmed that French fighter jets had shot down a drone that entered its airspace, after a series of similar incidents in the region over the past months. Some sources are claiming it was a Russian UAV, while others are claiming the drone is Ukrainian. 

WATCH: French Rafale jet shoots down a Ukrainian kamikaze drone over Latvia this morning. pic.twitter.com/sZ3gJ3gf2m

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 8, 2026

Baiba Braže, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Latvia, took to X to "thank our French allies for shooting down the drone that penetrated Latvian airspace."

The country's National Armed Forces (NBS) said an airspace warning that had been issued had been lifted by 10:30 am local time. The incident triggered an emergency alert to go out on cell phones across the region.

The NBS sent alerts to mobile phones of citizens living in the eastern municipalities of Ludza, Balvi and Alūksne, after which a military spokesperson told Reuters that the drone entered Latvian airspace from Russia.

"Seek shelter indoors, close windows and doors - follow the two-wall principle," it told residents, after detecting a potential inbound threat in Latvian airspace.

"If you notice a low-flying, suspicious, or dangerous object, do not approach it and call 112. We will inform you when the threat has ended," the NBS added.

The NBS further described that it had deployed additional units to Latvia's eastern border to strengthen air capabilities.

The Kremlin has continued to frame these incidents as likely of Ukrainian origin, seeking to shift blame away from Russia. According to state media:

Latvia did not name the origin of the UAV. However, a similar incident was reported overnight in Moldova, where the authorities said a drone that crashed there was most likely Ukrainian.

The incidents appear to fit a growing pattern of drones launched by Kiev against Russia ending up in third countries.

The interception in Latvia took place over Nautreni Parish, about 15 km from the Russian border. On Monday morning, the Defense Ministry released two videos filmed from the ground by witnesses showing the aircraft being taken down.

Latvia's military has been pointing the finger at Russia for the dangerous intrusion.

📍Lettonie | Destruction d’un drone par les Rafale 🇫🇷💥

➡️ Survol d’un drone au dessus du territoire letton 🇱🇻
➡️ Décollage sur alerte des chasseurs 🇫🇷 engagés dans la mission de l’OTAN Baltic Air Policing depuis la base aérienne de Šiauliai 🇱🇹
➡️ Identification et destruction… pic.twitter.com/NFIMSP7Ibl

— Armée française - Opérations militaires (@EtatMajorFR) June 8, 2026

There have been other repeat drone incidents in Europe, for example the spate of mystery UAV sightings over Northern and Western Europe. With these, it's anyone's guess as to the origins.

Some pundits have suggested these are merely irresponsible hobbyists, or else pranksters. However, the reality of projectiles entering neighboring countries as a result of the Ukraine war is much more serious, and a significant threat to these populations.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 04:15

Google Met Top German Govt Officials Many Times To Discuss Online "Hate Speech" And "Disinformation"

Authored by John Rosenthal via DailySceptic.org,

Data provided in a German Government response to a parliamentary question on online censorship show that Google met with top German government officials dozens of times between early 2022 and spring 2024 to discuss suppression of online “hate speech” and “disinformation”.

Major online platforms and search engines (X, Facebook, TikTok, Google, etc.) are required to take measures to suppress “illegal hate speech” – i.e., illegal per the standard of European laws – and allegedly harmful “disinformation” under the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA). As shown in the US House Judiciary Committee’s recent report on European censorship of the internet, the tech companies are in constant contact with EU officials on DSA “enforcement”.

But the German Government’s parliamentary response shows that there have been regular and extensive contacts with the German Government on these subjects as well – and that by far the most frequent such contacts have been with Google. The DSA creates censorship prerogatives not just for the EU as such, but also for EU member states, and Germany is known to make particularly ample use of these prerogatives. It is indeed national “speech laws”, of which Germany has the strictest in Europe, that platforms are required to enforce under the DSA.

The revelations are relevant not just to Germans, but also to Americans, British and indeed the world, because DSA enforcement is neither territorially nor linguistically limited. It applies to all speech in any language from any source anywhere in the world: i.e., so long as it is visible via the internet in the European Union. Online platforms may choose to comply by geo-blocking certain content – in particular, alleged “hate speech” – just in the EU where it is illegal. But they also can and frequently do take the technologically simpler and less costly path of removing the content in question outright.

Moreover, the DSA explicitly sanctions the use of visibility-filtering – i.e., algorithmically limiting the reach of content rather than removing it – and visibility-filtering is necessarily global. It affects the discoverability and visibility of speech all around the world. As shown here, under the pressure of the DSA, visibility-filtering has become the go-to method employed by social media platforms to suppress alleged ‘mis-’ or ‘disinformation’.

Search engines like Google can, of course, act even more decisively to restrict the reach of alleged ‘disinformation’: namely, by downranking websites or webpages in search results or even excluding them altogether.

The parliamentary question submitted by Germany’s opposition AfD (Alternative for Germany) party in March 2024 expressly relates to both censorship methods, or what its authors describe as “removal or reach throttling of user posts or user accounts”.

Both question and answer bear the title “Meetings of Representatives of the Federal Government with [Tech] Companies and Funded Non-Governmental Organisations on the Topics of ‘Hate’ or ‘Disinformation on the Internet’”. A first set of data provided in the Government response concerns meetings with NGOs. These include, for instance, the publicly-funded German NGO HateAid, which has been assigned the status of a “trusted flagger” of allegedly problematic online content under the DSA.

A second set of data covers the meetings on “hate speech” and “disinformation” with the tech companies themselves. It provides details – date, place, participants, topic, etc. – on no fewer than 53 meetings in the stated time period. An excerpt can be seen below. (The Government also included a few meetings on other topics, such as the protection of minors, in the data.)

It should be noted that, by the Government’s own admission, the data are not exhaustive and only cover meetings involving top German government officials, such as ministers or ‘state secretaries’ – i.e., the highest-level civil servants in German government ministries. Lower-level contacts are explicitly not included, and the Government response notes that it has no legal obligation to record all meetings, i.e., even at the highest levels.

Some of the meetings were publicised by the German government at the time of their occurrence, but most of them were confidential. This is noted in the data, with some of the meetings even being deemed “not suitable” for public knowledge. In other cases, it was merely deemed “unnecessary” to inform the public.

The data include, for instance, a January 2023 meeting in San Francisco between Elon Musk, who had only just recently completed his acquisition of Twitter, and the German government’s then minister for digital affairs Volker Wissing. The subject of the meeting was “how Twitter deals with false information, new requirements under the Digital Services Act”. This meeting was publicised in Germany.

The data also include no fewer than 13 meetings with representatives of Meta on topics like “disinformation in the context of RUS[sian] war against UKR[aine]” (March 3rd 2022 at the Digital Affairs Ministry in Berlin) and “questions of cybersecurity and how Meta deals with disinformation” (February 12th 2024, with a German Interior Ministry official in Menlo Park, California). TikTok was involved in seven of the meetings.

But by far the greatest number of meetings were with Google. Google participated in no fewer than 34 of the meetings included in the data, and no fewer than 29 of them were bilateral meetings between Google or its parent company, Alphabet, and the German government. YouTube, a Google subsidiary, was also sometimes involved.

Then German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, identified by the initials “BK” (Bundeskanzler), participated in two of the meetings with Google and three of the meetings overall. Other participants on the German side included Scholz’s chief of staff Wolfgang Schmidt; another top Scholz advisor, state secretary Jörg Kukies; the minister of the interior, Nancy Faeser; the minister of justice, Marco Buschmann; the economics minister, Robert Habeck; two top officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; a top official of the Ministry of Digital Affairs; and Klaus Müller, the head of the agency responsible for German DSA implementation, the Federal Network Agency. Müller remains the President of the Federal Network Agency under current German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The vice-president of the agency, Wilhelm Eschweiler, also met with Google on two different occasions.

Participants from Google’s side included Alphabet/Google CEO Sundar Pichai; Alphabet/Google’s President of Global Affairs; the Google Vice-President for Trust and Safety; and Google’s Director of Government Affairs and Public Policy. CEO Sundar Pichai personally participated in no fewer than four of the meetings.

Topics discussed included “hate speech, fake news and disinformation on the web”, “disinformation in the context of RUS[sian] war against UKR[aine]”, “Digital Services Act and how to deal with mis- and disinformation on platforms”, “disinformation and DSA”, “disinformation, resilient democracy, illegal content, hate crime”, “strengthening the resilience of democracy and dealing with disinformation”, “key challenges of Google and YouTube with respect to cybersecurity and disinformation”, and so on and so forth.

Among other venues, meetings took place at the German Ministry of the Interior, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other relevant ministries in Berlin, as well as at the offices of the Federal Network Agency.

No fewer than three of the meetings took place at the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, the German equivalent of the White House.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 03:30

Pro-EU Ruling Party Wins Armenia Election In Landslide, Kremlin Blasts Western Interference

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party has won parliamentary elections, according to Monday's result, after a vote which has signified the small Caucasus nation's major pro-Western shift.

His Civil Contract party secured 49.81 percent of the vote, while the main opposition party Strong Armenia - seen as pro-Moscow, finished a distant second with 23.29 percent. National turnout in the country of three million people was close to 60%.

Pashinyan claimed a "historic victory that will ensure Armenia’s eternity and development" while also vowing to "continue the course of rapprochement with the West" - but while balancing the pursuit of positive relations with Russia.

Anadolu/Getty Images: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared victory in the parliamentary elections early Monday morning.

Prime Minister Pashinyan has made known his intentions for his country to eventually join the EU. However, Strong Armenia party is claiming that the winning side in reality mounted a campaign of interference and intimidation: 

The second-placed Strong Armenia bloc is led by Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire who made his fortune in Russia and is under house arrest for allegedly advocating for the government’s overthrow. He has rejected the charge as politically motivated.

Karapetyan called the elections "shameful" and denounced alleged violations and repression, saying dozens of his campaign staff had been arrested. Armenia’s Investigative Committee said it had opened 59 criminal cases over alleged electoral violations and detained nine people.

The Kremlin itself has also pounced on this theme, with Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova alleging unfair and illegal tactics unleashed by local authorities on Russia-friendly interests inside Armenia.

"On June 7, parliamentary elections were held in Armenia in an atmosphere of unprecedented pressure on the opposition and interference from the West, primarily the EU," Zakharova commented.

And more of her remarks via TASS:

She stressed that the preliminary results announced by the republic's Central Election Commission indicate that the Civil Contract party of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, which declared its victory, "did not receive a monopoly on power." "Moreover, compared to the previous electoral cycle, its support has noticeably decreased," Zakharova added.

Recent years of war between Christian Armenia and its better-armed Muslim neighbor Azerbaijan (which is a secular Republic) has seen tensions ratchet between one-time close allies Armenia and Russia. 

Armenia has long been a key member of the regional Russian-led bloc, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, Armenia froze its participation since 2024, outraged over Russia's failure to protect ethnic Armenians during Azerbaijan’s 2023 takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh.

PM Nikol Pashinyan’s party has won the election in Armenia with 50% of the votes, securing a comfortable majority in Parliament.

Pashinyan will now be able to continue strengthening Armenia’s relations with the EU, move away from Russia and signing a peace deal with Azerbaijan pic.twitter.com/QdWsHwQ8S3

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 8, 2026

Russia since played a 'peacekeeping' role with some limited troop deployments; however, Armenian Christians had already been booted from the ancient enclave. Armenian officials (and the population) have since expressed bitterness that Moscow didn't do more to bolster its historic claims on Nagorno-Karabakh. The episode was seen as a devasting, region-altering loss.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 02:45

Street Unrest In Albania After PM Says Pristine Land 'Belongs' To US-Saudi Investors 

Authored by Jake Johnson via Common Dreams

Albanians took to the streets in droves for the eighth consecutive day on Sunday to protest a proposed $1.6 billion luxury resort complex backed by US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, one of several investors in the project, which opponents say is both corrupt and disastrous for wetlands and wildlife.

“One week later, we are still here, stronger than yesterday,” said the Albanian Ornithological Society, a leading critic of the proposed development. “Millions around the world are united in one voice for nature, for justice, and for the protection of what belongs to everyone, standing for every protected area in Albania.”

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama has vocally defended the project amid mounting public backlash, saying in a recent interview that the land marked for development “belongs to the investors,” not the Albanian people.

via Associated Press

Rama also criticized the thousands of people who have turned out to protest the luxury hotel project as well as international media coverage of the demonstrations, saying that “there is no chance” that “the projects in Albania will be defined by street protests.”

Demonstrators, many raising pink flamingo cutouts to decry the project’s expected impacts on the vulnerable bird and other wildlife, have demanded cancellation of the resort project and Rama’s resignation, accusing him of steamrolling environmental concerns to bolster the country’s tourism industry and curry favor with the Trump administration. Kushner currently works for the administration as a “special peace envoy.”

“We are stronger than your bulldozers,” chanted demonstrators over the weekend.

As The New York Times reported last year, Rama heads the government committee that gave “Kushner and his business partners the right to move ahead with accelerated negotiations to build the luxury resort on a 111-acre section of the 2.2-square-mile island of Sazan that will be connected by ferry to the mainland.”

“Mr. Kushner’s Affinity Partners, a private equity company backed with about $4.6 billion in money mostly from Saudi Arabia and other Middle East sovereign wealth funds, is pursuing the Albania project along with Asher Abehsera, a real estate executive that Mr. Kushner has previously teamed up with to build projects in Brooklyn, New York,” the Times added.

Lea Ypi, an Albanian academic, wrote in an op-ed for The Guardian on Monday that “Albanians know that real-estate speculation without state support means ordinary citizens will struggle to buy a flat or pay the rent.”

Protests in Albania are exploding for a seventh straight day like nothing before.

Thousands of Albanians are refusing to surrender their land to Jared Kushner’s elite private island wish.

They are also demanding the immediate removal of their prime minister for colluding with… pic.twitter.com/fbQK0oIB6D

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) June 7, 2026

“They know that luxury tourism means holidays in your own country become a privilege for the few,” Ypi added. “With no unions to speak of and a labor movement that only appears in communist-era footage of May Day parades, work conditions are so exploitative that only those from countries even more desperate are willing to take the jobs that arise.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 02:00

10 Enduring Lessons From Adam Smith

Authored by Nikolai G. Wenzel via The Daily Economy,

Adam Smith (1723-1790) is widely considered to be the father of modern economics. There were precursors, such as the School of Salamanca and the French Physiocrats, but Adam Smith's 1776 magnum opus, "An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations," was the first comprehensive treatise.

A statue of Adam Smith in Edinburgh, Scotland, in a file photo. Travel Telly/Shutterstock

In this 250th anniversary year, much ink will be spilled - and with good reason - celebrating the legacy of Adam Smith. My purpose here is as joyous as it is modest: to share ten quotations that are particularly relevant today, and demonstrate Adam Smith's enduring influence. I like to weave them into my lectures - on markets, on political economy, on constitutional economics, or on the moral foundations of capitalism. Adam Smith, in the versatility of his writings, was indeed a man for all seasons.

1. The Invisible Hand Acts

"[B]y directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention .... By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it. I have never known much good done by those who affected to trade for the public good."

Perhaps the single best-known concept from Adam Smith, the invisible hand was famously picked up by the Austrian school of economics and its key lesson of spontaneous order. F.A. Hayek, especially, noted the importance of phenomena that were "the result of human action, but not of human design." Alas, interventionists of all stripes still think they can supersede the invisible hand of the market.

2. People Are Not Pawns

The flip side of the invisible hand involves social and economic engineering. Adam Smith was prescient in describing the psychology of social engineers, those self-proclaimed experts who believe, in their hubris, that they can run an entire economy.

"The man of system ... is apt to be very wise in his own conceit; and is often so enamored with the supposed beauty of his own ideal plan of government, that he cannot suffer the smallest deviation from any part of it. He goes on to establish it completely and in all its parts, without any regard either to the great interests, or to the strong prejudices which may oppose it. He seems to imagine that he can arrange the different members of a great society with as much ease as the hand arranges the different pieces upon a chess-board. He does not consider that the pieces upon the chess-board have no other principle of motion besides that which the hand impresses upon them; but that, in the great chess-board of human society, every single piece has a principle of motion of its own, altogether different from that which the legislature might choose to impress upon it."

3. Collective Action Can't Be Imposed

The "man of system" quotation is long enough that it bears cutting in two. In the second part, Smith laments the unintended consequences of social engineering. If the policymaker is cautious and respects both human nature and local knowledge, the results can be a marginal improvement over the status quo - this is the basis of Buchanan and Tullock's theory of collective action through the state.

"If those two principles coincide and act in the same direction, the game of human society will go on easily and harmoniously, and is very likely to be happy and successful. If they are opposite or different, the game will go on miserably, and the society must be at all times in the highest degree of disorder."

4. Markets Coordinate Effort

Adam Smith's key theoretical contribution is the division of labor. But this is not merely an economic model, to be calculated with production charts by eager students of microeconomics. For Smith, it is something more, an instrument of cooperation to overcome the limitations of human beings:

"This division of labor, from which so many advantages are derived, is not originally the effect of any human wisdom .... It is the necessary, though very slow and gradual, consequence of a certain propensity in human nature ..., the propensity to truck, barter, and exchange one thing for another."

The division of labor solves a social problem:

"It is thus that man, who can subsist only in society, was fitted by nature to that situation for which he was made. All the members of human society stand in need of each others' assistance, and are likewise exposed to mutual injuries. Where the necessary assistance is reciprocally afforded from love, from gratitude, from friendship, and esteem, the society flourishes and is happy. All the different members of it are bound together by the agreeable bands of love and affection, and are, as it were, drawn to one common centre of mutual good offices.

"But though the necessary assistance should not be afforded from such generous and disinterested motives, though among the different members of the society there should be no mutual love and affection, the society, though less happy and agreeable, will not necessarily be dissolved. Society may subsist among different men, as among different merchants, from a sense of its utility, without any mutual love or affection; and though no man in it should owe any obligation, or be bound in gratitude to any other, it may still be upheld by a mercenary exchange of good offices according to an agreed valuation."

5. Self-Interest Actually Helps Everyone

Smith was excited about the potential for markets to align incentives. In another famous quip, he reminded us that markets transform private interest into public harmony:

"It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest."

In more recent terms, we are reminded of Deirdre McCloskey and Art Carden, both fellows of AIER. The title of their book speaks for itself: "Leave Me Alone, and I'll Make You Rich: How the Bourgeois Deal Enriched the World."

6. Permissionless Societies Create Prosperity

The bourgeois deal has alternately been described in Physiocrat A.R.J. Turgot's plea: "laissez-faire, laissez-passer" - let us act, let us pass. Ever the professor of moral sentiments, and not just the founder of modern economics, Smith was quick to show that the bourgeois deal was instrumentally good, indeed - but it was also the grounding for a free society:

"Every man, as long as he does not violate the laws of justice, is left perfectly free to pursue his own interest in his own way."

7. Cooperation Connects Us

Smith's first major work, "The Theory of Moral Sentiments" (1759), predated "The Wealth of Nations" by almost two decades. While demonstrating how markets advance the public good by appealing to and channeling private interests, Smith made it clear that human beings are fundamentally creatures of cooperation:

"How selfish 'soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it except the pleasure of seeing it."

8. Individual Responsibility... With Limits

While emphasizing the importance of individual responsibility, Smith was also realistic about the limitations of what human beings could do. He warned:

"The administration of the great system of the universe ... is the business of God and not of man. To man is allotted a much humbler department, but one much more suitable to the weakness of his powers, and to the narrowness of his comprehension; the care of his own happiness, of that of his family, his friends, his country: that he is occupied in contemplating the more sublime, can never be an excuse for his neglecting the more humble department."

In a similar spirit, Ludwig von Mises explained in his 1927 book, "Liberalism": "[Classical] liberalism limits its concern entirely and exclusively to earthly life and earthly endeavor. The kingdom of religion, on the other hand, is not of this world. Thus, liberalism and religion could both exist side by side without their spheres' touching." Smith, Mises, and the classical liberal tradition stand as a foil against the busybodies - on the right and on the left - who would attempt to administer the universe through temporal means.

9. Collusion Threatens Competition

If Smith was worried about the political "man of systems," he was also worried about business colluding against the consumer, instead of serving the market through competition.

"People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices ..."

Smith cautioned us, however, against state efforts to prevent industry collusion:

"It is impossible indeed to prevent such meetings, by any law which either could be executed, or would be consistent with liberty and justice ..."

But he did offer a solution, in the form of more free trade, and fewer regulations to discourage competition:

"But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies; much less to render them necessary."

10. Institutions Drive Economic Growth

I am an institutional economist. I first came to economics from a preoccupation with economic development and ending, or at least abating, poverty. With economist Robert Lucas, if not with the same success, I am obsessed with such questions. When observing that some countries are rich and others poor, and that some grow slowly and others quickly, he commented:

"I do not see how one can look at figures like these without seeing them as representing possibilities. Is there some action a government of India could take that would lead the Indian economy to grow like Indonesia's or Egypt's? If so, what, exactly? If not, what is it about the 'nature of India' that makes it so? The consequences for human welfare involved in questions like these are simply staggering: once one starts to think about them, it is hard to think about anything else."

International development is infuriating, for two reasons. First, it has been a massive failure - well, international aid has been a massive and expensive failure; behind the futile efforts of the men and women of systems, markets have been plugging along, and poverty has fallen radically in the past 200 years. Second, because the recipe for growth is so obvious. It works every time it's applied, from the United States and Western Europe in the early 1800s to China after Mao's death and India after the end of the licensing raj, and to every country that embraced globalization and market reforms.

It's the recipe that Smith offered as early as 1755, twenty years before "The Wealth of Nations," and well before the Enlightenment ideals were translated into economic policy:

"Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice, [... the] rest being brought about by the natural course of things."

This quotation is thought to come from a transcript of a 1755 Adam Smith lecture, from Dugald Stewart's lecture notes.

In more modern language, peace is obvious, as is low and transparent taxation. A "tolerable administration of justice" might be translated as rule of law. Taken together, we have economic freedom, which is closely correlated with growth and wealth. Instead of fancy macroeconomic policies, imposed from the top down by the men and women of systems, the New Development Economics proposes a radical and simple solution. Focus on microeconomics, institutions, incentives, and the transmission of knowledge in the Austrian tradition.

Smith warned us what happens when the basic conditions for economic growth are ignored by conceited policymakers and politicians:

"All governments which thwart this natural course, which force things into another channel, or which endeavor to arrest the progress of society at a particular point, are unnatural, and to support themselves are obliged to be oppressive and tyrannical."

Tyranny is the midwife of poverty; liberty, of prosperity.

Reprinted from The Daily Economy, a publication of the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER).

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 23:25

Report Says Cuba Mobilizing Militias As U.S. Invasion Fears On The Rise

Weeks after Cuba's leader warned that any U.S. military action against the communist-controlled Caribbean island nation would be a "bloodbath" and risk destabilizing the region, local media reported that the regime had begun handing out weapons to ordinary citizens. Other reports, however, dispute that claim and suggest Havana is instead mobilizing its territorial militias. Either way, the signal is hard to ignore: Cuba is shifting into a higher defensive posture.

Venezuelan news outlet Diario Versión Final reports:

The Havana government has begun distributing weapons to ordinary citizens, officially urging them to prepare for an imminent foreign invasion.

However, The Times and The Sunday Times reporter Stephen Gibbs said reports that Cuba is handing out weapons to civilians are not true "for obvious reasons," adding, "It is mobilizing its milicias de tropas territoriales, and some weapons have reportedly been handed to firefighters, etc."

No, Cuba has not begun distributing weapons to civilians, for obvious reasons. It is mobilising its milicias de tropas territoriales and some weapons have reportedly been handed to firefighters etc.

— Stephen Gibbs (@STHGibbs) June 7, 2026

Additional militia report:

🚨Alert: The Communist Cuban government has started to distribute AK-47 machine guns to civilian militia members, urging the public to fight the ‘gringos’ and prepare for an imminent American invasion!! pic.twitter.com/5EVtZzZwZu

— US Homeland Security News (@defense_civil25) June 7, 2026

Last week, the U.S. slapped sanctions on Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, his wife Lis Cuesta Peraza, his stepson Manuel Anido Cuesta, and members of the Castro family as the Trump administration mounts a six-month economic pressure campaign against the communist regime. Other sanctions targeted Cuban foreign influence networks tied to U.S. left-wing NGOs.

The escalation in the pressure campaign comes as the growing U.S. naval presence in the region is described as the largest outside the Middle East, with the USS Nimitz carrier strike group, guided-missile destroyers and cruisers, surveillance aircraft, and drones operating near the island.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently said Havana is "in a lot of trouble," warning that a failed state just south of Florida represents a national security threat.

President Díaz-Canel warned last week, "If it were to materialize [U.S. invasion], it would trigger a bloodbath with incalculable consequences, plus the destructive impact on regional peace and stability."

Those "incalculable consequences" Díaz-Canel referenced were not defined. But recent warnings point to a broader threat spectrum, ranging from potential drone threats against the U.S. homeland to the risk that radicalized U.S.-based NGO networks tied to the Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples, or ICAP, could be activated to sow chaos on U.S. streets. That may help explain why Rubio moved to sanction the entity. 

Secretary Rubio,

Two of the organizations listed above are direct partners of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which has 100,000 members nationwide and 250 elected officials in office.

For these very same reasons, they should be investigated. https://t.co/6daEjUtcYw

— 🇺🇸 Jason Curtis Anderson (@JCAndersonNYC) June 4, 2026

Polymarket odds for a Cuban invasion by the end of the year stand at 40%.

//-->

Tick tock. Tick tock. 

US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Yes 39% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

 

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 23:00

Tiny X-Ray Telescope Could Unlock The Moon's Hidden Chemistry

Authored by Tokyo Metropolitan University via ScienceDaily,

Researchers at Tokyo Metropolitan University have used simulations to show that a small, newly developed X-ray telescope could help create a chemical map of the entire lunar surface. Such a map would be a major step toward understanding how the Moon formed, changed, and evolved over time.

A new compact X-ray telescope could help scientists produce the first-ever complete map of the Moon’s chemical makeup. Credit: Shutterstock

Their detailed modeling, which included both the telescope detector and a realistic Moon orbiting satellite mission, suggests that one telescope could map five important elements in about two years. A larger five by five array of detectors could produce sharper maps and complete the work more quickly.

Mapping The Moon's Chemistry

The Moon's geological history is still not fully understood. One major reason is that scientists do not yet have a complete geochemical map of the lunar surface. Because researchers cannot simply collect samples from every part of the Moon, they must rely on remote sensing methods.

One of these methods is X-ray fluorescence imaging. In this approach, detectors are pointed at the Moon to capture X-rays emitted by specific elements after they are struck by solar radiation. Those signals can help reveal which elements are present across different regions of the surface.

Why Complete Lunar Maps Are Difficult

Earlier observations from the Apollo and Chandrayaan missions produced useful partial maps, but a full global map is still missing. Creating one is technically difficult for several reasons. Missions have limited time to gather enough sunlight driven X-ray signals, and detectors can degrade during long periods in space.

The problem is especially difficult near the Moon's poles. In these regions, solar X-rays are weaker, which makes it harder to collect the signals needed to identify surface elements.

A Compact X-Ray Telescope For Lunar Orbit

To address these obstacles, a team led by Airi Toida and Prof. Yuichiro Ezoe of Tokyo Metropolitan University has proposed using a compact X-ray telescope on a satellite orbiting the Moon. The telescope would allow wide area observations of the lunar surface during strong solar flares, when the Sun provides more intense X-ray illumination.

Traditional X-ray telescopes are often too large and heavy for this type of mission. By contrast, the team's compact telescope was originally designed for studying Earth's magnetosphere and weighs less than ten kilograms. Its small size could make it practical for long term lunar satellite observations.

The detector has also been tested in radiation conditions far harsher than those expected in lunar orbit. That durability could support robust, wide area, high resolution imaging over an extended mission.

Simulations Show A Path To A Full Moon Map

The researchers then added the telescope's specifications into a numerical simulation to test whether a satellite mission could successfully map the Moon. Assuming 300 solar flares per year and a single telescope aboard a Moon orbiting satellite, the simulation showed that the whole lunar surface could be mapped for five elements - oxygen, iron, magnesium, aluminum, silicon - in two years, using a grid size of 70 x 70 kilometers.

Because the telescope is so compact, the team also examined a satellite carrying a five by five array of telescopes. According to the simulations, this 25 telescope system could reduce the mission time to one year. With two years of operation, it could also map sodium, while improving the grid size to 30 x 30 kilometers.

A New Window Into Lunar Geology

If either mission concept becomes reality, it would produce the first complete map of elemental abundance across the entire Moon. That achievement would give scientists a powerful new tool for studying lunar geology and reconstructing the Moon's long and complex history.

This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 21H04972.

Journal Reference: Airi Toida, Daiki Ishi, Yuichiro Ezoe, Masaki Numazawa, Kumi Ishikawa. "Numerical simulation of light-element geochemistry of the lunar surface using a compact and lightweight XRF imaging spectrometer." Earth, Planets and Space, 2026; 78 (1). DOI: 10.1186/s40623-025-02326-2

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 22:35

4 In 10 American Adults Report Having 'Mental Health' Problems

Over the past few years, a lot of progress has been made in accepting and understanding mental health problems.

Having long been seen as a sign of weakness, mental health issues in their many varieties and severities have become much less of a taboo.

As Statista's Valentine Fourreau notes, the pandemic, which left many people feel isolated, powerless or overwhelmed, accelerated that trend, as it not only caused a spike in symptoms of anxiety or depression, but also led more people to open up about their problems.

In a Statista survey from 2025-2026, the prevalence of self-reported mental health problems varies greatly across countries, suggesting that people in some countries, e.g. China or Japan, may be more hesitant to open up about mental health or simply less likely to identify certain problems as mental health issues.

You will find more infographics at Statista

As Statista's chart shows, more than 4 in 10 U.S. adults reported that they experienced symptoms of mental health problems, such as stress, anxiety or depression in the 12 months preceding the survey, making an open discourse about mental health issues all the more important.

With that in mind, we give the last word to AOC, who exclaimed over the weekend that "we are not the crazy ones. We are sane!"...

AOC : "We are not the crazy ones. We are sane!"

If you have to tell people that you're sane in public, you probably...aren't.

Also, have you seen the Democrat platform policies wishlist?

Pretty crazy. pic.twitter.com/oyIQ9Jk3ls

— Justin Theory (@realJustATheory) February 19, 2026

Arguably, if you have to tell people that you're sane in public, you probably...aren't.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 22:10

Chinese Article Warns VPN Use Alone Can Trigger Punishment Under Expanding Censorship Regime

Authored by Michael Zhuang via The Epoch Times,

A widely circulated Chinese social media article warning that internet users can be punished simply for bypassing China's online censorship system has drawn attention to what observers say is an expanding clampdown on access to the global internet.

The article, published June 2 on Chinese social media WeChat and later archived by California-based nonprofit China Digital Times, which tracks China's state censorship, compiled a series of publicly reported cases of suppression on the use of virtual private networks (VPNs).

People play computer games at an internet cafe in Beijing on Sept. 10, 2021. Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images

The cases included fines imposed on users who accessed overseas websites, penalties for selling VPN services, arrests related to the dissemination of overseas political content, and investigations into internet activity dating back several years.

The article challenged a common assumption among Chinese internet users that using VPNs for research, accessing foreign websites, or utilizing overseas artificial intelligence (AI) tools is unlikely to attract official scrutiny as long as no sensitive content is shared.

"But from publicly disclosed cases, VPN use itself has already become a target of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) investigation," the article said.

The examples highlighted in the article suggest that the CCP is increasingly focused not only on what users do online, but also on how they access the internet.

One of the most notable cases involved a resident of Ningde, Fujian Province, who was penalized in 2024 for allegedly using a VPN to browse overseas websites in 2020.

According to the article, police reviewed historical internet records and later imposed an administrative penalty, prompting criticism from some legal observers who questioned whether the action complied with China's statutory limitations on administrative punishment.

The case stood out because it appeared to demonstrate the communist regime's ability to revisit years-old internet activity rather than relying solely on real-time monitoring and censorship.

Chinese legal professionals interviewed by The Epoch Times said that the enforcement action raised questions about the scope of retroactive investigations. Under China's Administrative Penalty Law, administrative violations generally cannot be punished if they remain undiscovered for more than two years, although certain exceptions apply.

The article also cited cases involving individuals punished for selling VPN services and users fined solely for establishing unauthorized internet connections, when there was no indication they had distributed overseas information.

The reported cases come amid broader efforts by the CCP to tighten control over cross-border internet access.

Under Chinese regulations, businesses and foreign nationals requiring international connectivity are generally expected to use telecommunications channels approved by the regime, while unauthorized VPNs and proxy services remain subject to censorship.

Wang Xin contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 21:45

OpenAI Files Confidentially For IPO, Joining SpaceX and Anthropic In Capitalizing On AI Frenzy

The rush by AI companies to go public before the window closes (i.e., "market conditions" emerge) entered its final lap late on Monday, when OpenAI joined its two mega peers in filing for a blockbuster IPO that could value the ChatGPT creator at more than $1tn as it races rival Anthropic to list its shares publicly, following an imminent offering by SpaceX.

OpenAI said it had confidentially submitted a draft IPO prospectus to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, formally kicking off the process for one of the year’s most hotly anticipated debuts. The company is also planning to launch a tender sale of its shares to provide liquidity to employees in the coming weeks, before the company goes public, Bloomberg reported. Why employees would want to sell shares ahead of an IPO is not exactly clear, unless they fear the market reaction to the public offering would disappoint. 

OpenAI’s listing announcement comes days before SpaceX is set to IPO in a deal that could raise a record $86bn and value Elon Musk’s rockets-to-AI conglomerate at $1.78tn. Anthropic, the startup behind the chatbot Claude, said last week that it had filed confidentially for an IPO of its own. The company soared to a $965 billion valuation in its latest private funding round - above OpenAI’s for the first time - as its revenue surged.

The three Wall Street listings comes at a time of unbridled euphoria among investors over AI, which has helped propel US stocks to a series of record highs but also prompted worries that markets are overheating. Last week, Goldman published a note seeking to preempt the big question: "Can Markets Absorb Massive Stock Supply From Coming Mega IPOs Without A Crash:" While Goldman did not express concerns about the coming flood of stock supply (its argument is that demand will more than offset the flood of new shares), the bank which is also a lead underwriter for both SpaceX and Anthropic calculated that recent and upcoming IPOs will result in roughly $500 billion of additional unlocked shares available to sell in 2026 and likely a larger quantity in 2027 as insiders sell and distribute their stakes to public (mostly retail) shareholders. The bank expects the majority of potential equity supply from the current pipeline of IPOs will become free float in 2027. 

OpenAI’s IPO - which also comes at a time when CEO Sam Altman has floated handing out shares to US taxpayers ostensibly in hopes that such an action would lead to a government backstop and/or bailout if and when the AI cycle turns - will mark a test of investors’ appetite for a company posting booming revenue growth but also staggering losses that are forecast to continue for many years as the company spends vast sums on data centres and other infrastructure: its funding commitments to hyperscalar companies are well north of $1 trillion and unless the company manages to dramatically boost its revenue growth it will find itself woefully undercapitalized in coming years. Hence the IPO, as well as a bevy of private credit deals which mask the company's true debt exposure. 

OpenAI has been investing heavily in AI research to compete with rivals including Google and Anthropic, as well as to expand the computing capacity needed to serve ChatGPT’s 900mn users. In February, the company told investors it was planning to spend about $600 billion on AI infrastructure by 2030.

It said in a statement on Monday that it had not “decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company”.

“But it’s a complicated set of trade-offs and this gives us the option to go public sooner if that ends up being best,” it added.

A public debut in 2026 would also pit Altman squarely against Elon Musk on a different plane than the failed lawsuit against OpenAI and its CEO. SpaceX, Musk’s rocket, satellite and AI firm, is targeting an IPO at a valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion on Thursday, which would immediately make it one of the world’s most valuable public companies.

As an indication of the staggering demand for AI exposure, OpenAI has already dwarfed even SpaceX’s IPO in a single funding round. The company completed a deal to raise $122 billion from investors at an $852 billion valuation.

The ChatGPT maker also planned to launch an employee share sale ahead of going public at its current $852bn price tag, according to people familiar with the matter. One said OpenAI’s decision to announce its confidential filing was intended to give employees who were considering selling shares “transparency” about the upcoming IPO.

US tech groups often file IPO paperwork privately, keeping their financial figures out of the public eye while the SEC reviews documents. That allows start-ups to gauge investor demand, make revisions and sometimes scrap IPO plans without broader scrutiny.

The San Francisco-based company’s move to progress its listing plans received a boost after a California court last month threw out Musk’s legal case against OpenAI and its chief Sam Altman. 

A public debut in 2026 would also pit Altman squarely against Elon Musk on a different plane than the failed lawsuit against OpenAI and its CEO. SpaceX, Musk’s rocket, satellite and AI firm, is targeting an IPO at a valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion on Thursday, which would immediately make it one of the world’s most valuable public companies.

OpenAI had been working with bankers at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and lawyers at Cooley for the past few months, people familiar with its preparations previously told the FT. Monday’s filing sets OpenAI on a path to start trading as early as the autumn, they said.

It is already one of the world’s most valuable private companies, after closing a record funding round of up to $122bn in March. As part of that deal it raised $3bn from retail investors, who will be given a wider opportunity to invest in the start-up when it becomes publicly traded.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 21:20

How A Tiny Insect Decimated Florida's Citrus, And What Orchardists Are Doing About It

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

Lifelong citrus farmer Sidney Tillett cut a path through a grove that has endured in his family for four generations, stopping his SUV between two rows of trees. On one side was a long plot of lush green saplings, covered with protective mesh bags tied to stakes in the ground.

The Citrus Place, a fruit and produce market in Terra Ceia, Florida, on May 21, 2026. The store is popular among vacationers.

Directly on the other side, a row of petite orange trees with withering leaves were all battling a bacterial infection, caused by an invasive insect that has decimated the state's orange industry in just two decades.

"It's a story of survival," Tillett told The Epoch Times, remembering his father's 25-foot-tall citrus trees that could sometimes produce 1,000 pounds of fruit in a single season.

Now, what trees survive are lucky if their canopies get half that size, or produce any fruit that can be sold at market. What was once 600 acres of citrus trees in the 1970s has now dwindled to five.

The orange - Florida's inextricable insignia that emblazons license plates, T-shirts, and bumper stickers from affluent coastal towns to rural farming communities - was once the state's largest cash crop, and positioned the Sunshine State as the country's majority citrus producer.

Florida harvested a record 244 million boxes of oranges during the 1997-1998 season. This year, the Department of Agriculture estimates Florida will only produce 12.2 million boxes, a stunning 95 percent drop in just under 30 years.

While occasional freezes, catastrophic hurricanes, and an on-and-off, decades-long battle with the citrus canker disease proved to be frustrating setbacks for many orange growers, the destruction of Florida's citrus industry kicked into high gear in 2005.

That was the year an invasive insect from China - which made its way to the United States through Mexico - introduced a disease that would ultimately decimate Florida's citrus industry.

The Asian citrus psyllid feeds on citrus tree leaves, causing the plant to contract a bacterial infection known as huanglongbing, commonly called citrus greening.

The disease causes rapid root loss, slowly draining the life from healthy trees as they struggle to absorb and retain nutrients. Oranges languish, struggling to reach full maturity and normal sugar composition - losing the sweet taste that made the fruit an in-demand crop worldwide.

There is no known cure. And the impacts extend far beyond the Sunshine State.

Citrus greening has slashed total U.S. orange production by 80 percent and grapefruit production by 88 percent since 2000, according to a report from the American Farm Bureau Federation. California has now overtaken Florida to become the United States' largest citrus producer, and nations such as Egypt and South Africa now export more oranges worldwide.

But Florida citrus farmers are not giving up.

Recent studies by the University of Florida's Citrus Research and Education Center have offered several paths for the industry to take.

Insecticides are a major component of citrus greening management, the center stated in an August 2025 production guide, but a specialized protective netting known as exclusion mesh "is currently the only tool that can fully prevent [Asian citrus psyllid] infestation in citrus."

Farmers have covered young saplings with translucent mesh bags that tent the tree's canopy to keep the Asian citrus psyllid out long enough for the tree to take hold and mature.

Meanwhile, light and moisture can pass through the cover's fine mesh.

While effective at stopping immediate tree death - as many saplings are infected within the first six months - the bags have some limitations.

They allow citrus trees to produce quality fruit for at least 30 months after they're planted, but the trees eventually begin to falter after the bags are removed two to three years later.

That's why citrus farmers such as Katie and Shane Bevilacqua are trailblazing a different, even more radical approach to fighting citrus greening.

They have built massive permanent mesh tents over their nearly 750 acres of grapefruit trees at Golden Ridge Groves in Bartow, Florida, where customers can self-pick or buy bushels of fruit in the couple's market. The tents are known as "citrus under protective screen" structures.

"It's early, but it's proving to keep the psyllid out, allow the tree to remain healthy, and put on the healthy crop and beautiful fruit that Florida has been known for for decades," Shane Bevilacqua told The Epoch Times.

"Even if this could be our small contribution to keeping it going, we're excited about that."

Road to Ruin

The near-total decimation of Florida's citrus industry did not happen overnight.

When officials first found citrus greening in the state in 2005, farmers had already battled irregular cold seasons with freezing temperatures that damaged their crops.

Citrus canker - a different, but still harmful bacterial infection - arrived in Florida more than 100 years ago, and was believed to be eradicated until subsequent outbreaks in the 1980s and '90s.

Despite strong efforts to eradicate citrus canker, the historic 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons spread the disease far and wide across the state. It was later found in Louisiana, Texas, and Alabama, but is currently considered endemic in Florida.

Those years would not see the end of hurricanes' impact on Florida's once famous orange market either, as the catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane Ian would buzz-saw through the center of the state in 2022, slicing through thousands of trees in its path.

Then just two years later, two back-to-back major hurricanes - Helene first, then Milton - would slam into Florida in the course of less than two weeks, further devastating the state's citrus crops.

Tillett lost a fifth of his grove during those storms, as the hammering winds blew over many of his younger trees.

But citrus greening, Tillett said, has been the biggest factor in so many multigenerational growers choosing to leave the state's cherished orange industry.

"The groves fell into nonproduction. Everybody lost," he said. "I mean, it's hard to justify a citrus grove when you're not making money."

The Asian citrus psyllid, spreader of a bacterial infection known as citrus greening, can be seen on an orange tree at Sidney Tillett's farm in Terra Ceia, Fla., on May 21, 2026. The invasive insect has decimated the state’s orange industry in just two decades. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 20:55

Interim Air Force One Jet Gets Patriotic Paint Scheme Ahead Of America's 250th Party

One month after the U.S. Air Force confirmed that the Boeing 747 donated by Qatar, designated as the VC-25B Bridge and widely described as President Trump's interim Air Force One aircraft, had entered flight testing in Texas and was being prepared for a new red, white, and blue color scheme, an OSINT account on X claims the aircraft has now been painted.

"Ladies and gentlemen… your United States Air Force's new VC-25B," X user TGhormley Photography wrote Sunday morning.

TGhormley Photography said the image was taken Saturday evening, though they did not disclose the location.

pic.twitter.com/LAk8IqnLlR

— TGhormley Photography (@SkunkChaser25) June 7, 2026

The VC-25B Bridge is a former Qatari head-of-state Boeing 747-8i that will serve as an interim presidential aircraft until Boeing's delayed VC-25B replacements are ready, now expected in 2028.

Last month, the USAF said the VC-25B Bridge underwent flight testing in Texas and was being prepared for a red, white, and blue paint scheme.

The military blog TWZ recently noted that there are still many "questions swirling about the legality and ethics of receiving the gifted plane." Last May, the Pentagon took delivery of the aircraft and said it would rapidly undertake the required modifications.

The VC-25B Bridge appears to be ready ahead of the nation’s 250th anniversary celebrations on July 4, less than one month away

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 20:30

529-To-Roth IRA Rollover Rules In 2026: Five Questions That Help Determine Whether You Qualify

Authored by Adam H. Douglas via The Epoch Times,

After funding a 529 college savings account for years, you realize there is money left over. Maybe your grandchild graduated early, earned a scholarship that covered more than expected, or decided college was not for them [ZH: or maybe your grandkid is an ungrateful little shit] . A federal rule now lets you move that leftover balance into a Roth IRA, tax-free. It may sound too good to be true, and for some account holders, it is.

Leftover 529 funds can now be rolled into a Roth IRA, but strict rules may limit who qualifies. Panchenko Vladimir/Shutterstock

The provision is real, but the eligibility window is narrow, and several states have created a tax trap that most account holders never see coming.

Under SECURE 2.0's Section 126, you can roll unused 529 funds into a Roth IRA, tax-free and penalty-free, up to a $35,000 lifetime limit. But the account must be at least 15 years old, the money being moved must be at least 5 years old, the Roth IRA must belong to the 529 beneficiary, and that beneficiary must have earned income. Several states, including California, impose their own taxes on the rollover regardless of the federal treatment.

Here are five gating questions to help you explore these rules in detail and determine whether the rollover is actually available to you.

Question 1: Is The Account Old Enough?

To qualify for a rollover, the 529 plan must have been maintained for at least 15 years before any funds can be transferred. This requirement starts from the date the account was originally established, not from when contributions began or when the beneficiary was designated.

Changing the beneficiary on a 529 plan will likely restart the 15-year clock. That would mean the new beneficiary must wait 15 years from the date they became the beneficiary before initiating a rollover. Treat any beneficiary change with caution if a rollover is part of your plan.

Question 2: Is The Money Old Enough?

The five-year rule: Any contributions made within the five years before the transfer, along with earnings on those contributions, are ineligible. Only money that has been in the account for a minimum of five years qualifies.

This rule can trip up grandparents who continued making contributions after a grandchild started college. Those recent deposits remain locked out until the five-year window clears, even if the account itself is decades old.

Question 3: Whose Name Is On The Roth IRA?

The funds cannot revert to the owner of the 529 account. They can only be transferred to a Roth IRA held by the 529 beneficiary. If you are a grandparent who owns the 529, the rollover goes into your grandchild's Roth IRA, not yours.

The beneficiary must also have earned income for the year at least equal to the amount transferred. A grandchild with no earned income in a given year cannot receive a rollover that year, even if every other condition is met.

Question 4: How Much Are You Planning To Move, And When?

The aggregate amount transferred from a 529 account to a Roth IRA may not exceed $35,000 per individual, and the amount transferred in any year is limited to the annual Roth IRA contribution limit. For 2026, the IRS has set that limit at $7,500 for those under age 50, and $8,600 for those 50 or older. Moving the full $35,000 lifetime cap takes a minimum of five years at current limits.

The good news is that 529-to-Roth rollovers bypass the usual Roth IRA income limits that phase out contributions for high earners, creating a unique opportunity for high-income families to fund Roth IRAs for their children or grandchildren.

Note that the rollover shares the annual limit with any other Roth IRA contributions the beneficiary makes that year. If the beneficiary contributes $3,000 in cash, only the remaining Roth room is available for the 529 rollover.

Question 5: What Does Your State Say?

This is the question people skip, and it's a costly one to miss. The rollover is federally tax-free - that's federal, not state.

Most states with income taxes, however, have indicated they will follow federal law. As of September 2025, 30 states have confirmed they conform, including New York, Ohio, Virginia, and Illinois, among others.

Several states have not.

• California residents who execute a 529-to-Roth rollover will be subject to both state income tax and an additional 2.5 percent California tax on the earnings portion.
• New Jersey's decision was listed as pending on tax-tracking boards until recently, but the state has since aligned with federal guidelines to allow tax-free transfers.
• Several states and the District of Columbia have indicated that 529 savers may be subject to state income tax recapture if 529 funds are transferred to a Roth IRA.

Verify your state's current position before initiating any rollover. State guidance on this provision continues to evolve.

FAQs About The 529-To-Roth IRA Rollover Does The Rollover Count Against The Beneficiary's Roth IRA Income Limits?

No, and this is one of the provision's most useful features. In 2026, single filers with modified adjusted gross income above $153,000 and married couples above $242,000 typically cannot contribute directly to a Roth IRA. However, 529-to-Roth rollovers bypass these restrictions entirely. This makes the rollover particularly valuable for families with high-earning adult children who would otherwise be shut out of direct Roth IRA contributions.

What Happens If The Beneficiary Has No Earned Income That Year?

The rollover cannot happen. The beneficiary must have earned income for the year at least equal to the amount transferred, just as with any Roth IRA contribution. If a grandchild is between jobs, attending graduate school without a stipend, or otherwise has no earned income in a given year, the rollover must wait. You can carry the unused rollover opportunity forward to a future year, as long as the lifetime $35,000 cap has not been reached.

Does The Rollover Have To Be A Direct Transfer?

Yes. The movement of assets must be completed in a direct trustee-to-trustee transfer. Do not withdraw the money from the 529 first and attempt to deposit it into the Roth IRA yourself. That path treats the distribution as a non-qualified 529 withdrawal, which triggers income tax and the standard 10 percent federal penalty on the earnings portion. Contact both the 529 plan administrator and the Roth IRA custodian to coordinate the transfer directly between institutions.

How Is The Rollover Reported At Tax Time?

The movement of assets is reported on IRS Form 1099-R from the 529 plan and Form 5498 from the Roth IRA custodian. The IRS refers to the transaction as a "qualified rollover contribution," reportable in Box 10 of Form 5498. It should appear on the beneficiary's tax return for the year of the transfer. Because the paperwork involves both the 529 administrator and the Roth IRA custodian, most advisers recommend working with a tax professional during the first year you execute a rollover to confirm reporting is handled correctly.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 20:05

"Replacing Lower Value Human Capital": Banks Cut Staff As Recent Grads Face Off Against AI For Jobs

As AI reshapes banking, students entering the industry are confronting a double challenge: navigating AI-driven hiring processes today while wondering how many traditional finance jobs will remain tomorrow, according to Bloomberg.

Warwick University student Andre Bonnick, for example, spends hours preparing for automated screening interviews rather than conversations with human recruiters. While he hopes to secure a role in finance, he is also weighing options such as further study as entry-level opportunities become more competitive.

Industry leaders have been increasingly candid about AI’s impact on employment. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that the technology “will eliminate jobs,” while other bank executives have acknowledged that some roles may no longer be needed as automation expands. Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters described the shift as “replacing in some cases lower-value human capital” with technology investments, comments for which he later apologized.

Bloomberg writes that the pressure is already visible at the junior level. Banks are reducing analyst intake programs and investing heavily in AI capabilities, leading many graduates to question the long-term stability of careers that were once viewed as secure and lucrative. Even so, experts argue that banks cannot eliminate junior hiring altogether because the industry still relies on developing future leaders through apprenticeship-style career paths.

For now, most institutions are deploying AI in specific areas such as customer support, compliance, transaction monitoring, and wealth management rather than replacing entire functions. Banks including Citigroup and Barclays report efficiency gains from AI tools, while digital-first firms such as Revolut are embedding AI directly into customer-facing products.

Yet uncertainty remains. Employment lawyers warn that automation could disproportionately affect middle-office and administrative roles, while some industry observers question whether companies are attributing workforce reductions to AI when broader cost-cutting may be the real driver.

Although major banks continue to recruit interns and graduates, many are seeking productivity gains without increasing headcount. As a result, breaking into finance is becoming more difficult just as AI begins to transform the nature of the jobs themselves.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 19:40

Xi Jinping Applauds Kim's 'Socialist Cause' In Warm North Korea State Visit

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warmly greeted Chinese President Xi Jinping in Pyongyang Monday, kicking off Xi's two-day state visit to the internationally isolated country - which is his first trip there in seven years.

Xi has called for deepening "strategic coordination and cooperation" with North Korea shortly after receiving a lavish, red carpet welcome at the airport. The two sides should inject "powerful momentum" into their ties, Xi said according to a readout released by Chinese state media Xinhua.

Xinhua/ZUMA Press

The Chinese leader spoke of a friendship that was 'generational' with the DPRK, in advancement of the 'socialist cause'.

There is plenty that is ideological found within the official readout in the wake of the two leaders' initial meeting, per Xinhua:

No matter how the international situation changes, the Chinese party and government's firm stance on highly valuing China-DPRK traditional friendship will not change, the firm support for General Secretary Kim in leading the DPRK's socialist cause will not change, and the firm commitment to safeguarding the shared interests of the two countries and preserving a favorable strategic environment will not change, Xi said.

Xi pointed out that, in the face of the profound changes unseen in a century that are accelerating across the world, the two sides should take a broad and long-term view, build on past achievements and open up a new future, draw wisdom from the development process of the relations between the two parties and the two countries, seize opportunities in the prevailing trend of human history, inject new contemporary connotations and strong impetus into the traditional friendship between China and the DPRK, and open up a brighter prospect for the socialist cause of the two countries as well as regional peace and development.

This cooperation is expected to be on several fronts, including economics and trade, agriculture, health, construction, as well as science and technology, Xi underscored.

Kim along with his first lady, Ri Sol Ju, enthusiastically greeted Xi and were shown clapping as the Chinese presidential plane touched down earlier in the day. Huge portraits of Xi and Kim have been installed over Pyongyang's main Kim Il Sung Square, where Xi's motorcade was also greeted with big displays of pageantry, including a mounted cavalry escort.

NBC has some interesting commentary which points out that Kim is in a rare position of strength based on some recent firm, anti-West geopolitical stances taken and maintained:

But the North Korean leader is playing host from a position of rare strength, and his country has come a long way since Xi Jinping’s last visit seven years ago.

Kim’s backing of Russia’s war with Ukraine has paid dividends, his weapons program has cemented North Korea’s status as a de facto nuclear state, and an economy that buckled under the pressure of pandemic isolation and sanctions has since rebounded.

Indeed, Kim has of late been aggressively hyping his country's nuclear modernization and expanse program. There's not doubt he's also closely following and taking notes on the Iran crisis. 

WATCH: Xi Jinping landed in Pyongyang for his first North Korea visit in nearly seven years.

Kim Jong-un rolled out the red carpet personally, greeting Xi and Peng Liyuan with a full honour guard. pic.twitter.com/9X9kK44No0

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 8, 2026

Iran, which does not yet have nuclear weapons status, has been attacked by the United States and Israel - and so Pyongyang sees its nuclear expanse path as more justified than ever at this point, also given Washington still views North Korea as a 'pariah' state.

Another interesting development mentioned in state media relates to efforts to open borders: "Xi called on both sides to leverage the opportunity of the full reopening of border crossings and the resumption of civil aviation flights and international passenger trains to increase people-to-people exchanges and foster mutual interaction," wrote Xinhua.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 18:50

Researchers Identify World's Largest Scorpion That Roamed Earth 415 Million Years Ago

Authored by Maria Mocerino via Interesting Engineering,

The University of Manchester has discovered that the world's largest scorpion, which lived 415 million years ago, was hiding in the museum's collection for 150 years.

Since the 1870s, researchers have debated the identity of the strange fossil remains lurking in the Manchester archives. They possessed tiny fragments recovered from sites in England and Wales that puzzled them, but they could not piece them together. Was it a large woodlouse-crustacean?

Life reconstruction of Praearcturus gigas.Franz Anthony High Res

In the 1980s, some research suggested that a scorpion might be the source of the fossil remains. However, this hypothesis faced challenges due to a lack of fossil evidence of its most distinctive feature: its tail.

To resolve the debate, paleontologists conducted a study of the remains using modern imaging and analytical techniques, according to a press release from the University of Manchester. They were "able to build a clearer picture of the animal than was previously possible, which is really exciting."

The 3.3-foot-long Praearcturus gigas scorpion now joins the ranks of Earth's ferocious prehistoric beasts, boasting pincers 6.2 inches long. As it roamed the Earth over 400 million years ago, researchers sought to understand the factors that allowed this prehistoric predator to grow to such an astonishing size.

The T. Rex of Scorpions

According to the study authors, "Along with dinosaurs, mammoths, and other charismatic megafauna, giant arthropods are an iconic symbol of the Earth's deep paleontological history in popular culture."

Lead author Dr. Richard J. Howard, Curator of Fossil Arthropods at the Natural History Museum in London, described the imagery often associated with giant arthropods: "Carboniferous rainforests filled with giant millipedes or dragonfly-like insects... but Praearcturus lived at least 50 million years earlier, well before the evolution of trees, when life on land was just beginning."

In other words, researchers may have identified the T. rex of arthropods nearly two hundred million years before the rise of the dinosaurs. The Praearcturus gigas lived during the Early Devonian period - a time when forests had not yet evolved - so this giant scorpion lived among small plants and fungi, as per the press release.

What Did It Eat?

Researchers were stunned: how did the scorpion grow to such a size, surrounded by relatively unassuming and unimposing neighbors? The answer lies in its lack of competition. As few large animals were present at that time, Praearcturus was free to become a predatory giant, according to the NYPost.

Furthermore, the "cool" creature, which might inspire a new figurine in a child's toy collection, may have been partially aquatic, as suggested by its epimera - the descending lateral plates or flaps found on the bodies of crustaceans.

Dr. Howard stated in Live Science, "Without complex ecosystems to support Praearcturus on land, these animals probably spent part of their lives hunting in water." The Praearcturus was even "before its time," and its extraordinary size might be explained by one factor: water.

"This places Praearcturus at a pivotal moment in Earth's history when animals were first experimenting with life outside the oceans," as per a press release.

"The boundary between land and sea was much less defined at this time," Dr Greg Edgecombe, Merit Researcher at the Natural History Museum, London, and co-author of the study, continued. "Praearcturus gives us a fascinating glimpse into how early animals adapted to these changing environments."

"It may even represent a lineage that returned to the water after earlier ancestors had already begun living on land," AOL concludes.

You can read the study here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 18:25