Zero Rss

Trump Signs Pipeline Permits To Boost US–Canada Oil Flow

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump issued several pipeline permits on April 15, including one for the construction of a new pipeline to facilitate the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products between the United States and Canada, according to documents released by the White House.

The action covers four permits in total. The permit authorizing construction was issued to the Bakken Pipeline Company LP for pipeline facilities in Burke County, North Dakota. Other permits were issued for the maintenance and operation of existing pipelines at border locations in North Dakota and Michigan. The recipients of those operational permits are “Enbridge Energy, Limited Partnership” and “Enbridge Pipelines (Southern Lights) L.L.C.”—both indirect subsidiaries of Canadian pipeline giant Enbridge Inc.

According to the White House documents, the permits cover transport of crude oil and petroleum products of every description—refined and unrefined—including naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas liquids, jet fuel, gasoline, kerosene, and diesel. The permits explicitly exclude natural gas subject to the Natural Gas Act.

Wednesday’s permits reflect the administration’s sweeping effort to expand America’s domestic and cross-border energy infrastructure.

At the CERAWeek energy conference March 2025 in Houston, Energy Secretary Chris Wright had said that Trump’s pledge to lower energy costs by boosting oil and natural gas production would require a corresponding increase in infrastructure investment.

“If ‘Drill, baby, drill’ is to [lower energy costs], we’re going to have to ‘Build, baby, build,’” Wright told reporters.

The Enbridge permits issued Wednesday supersede authorizations dating to 1991, 1994, and 2008, effectively reissuing and consolidating federal approval under the current administration. The cross-border pipeline landscape has grown increasingly complex in recent years—there are more than 2.6 million miles of oil and gas pipelines crisscrossing the United States, with 71 networks spanning the border with Canada, meaning they are primarily regulated under federal law and by treaties between the two countries.

Enbridge has long been a central player in that network, though not without controversy: The company confirmed in late 2024 that it had cleaned up roughly 60 percent of a nearly 70,000-gallon oil spill from one of its lines in Wisconsin.

The U.S.–Canada energy relationship has also been shadowed by tariff tensions. Trump threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada over border security concerns, along with a reduced levy of 10 percent on Canadian oil and gas. Wednesday’s permits signal continued bilateral energy cooperation even as trade negotiations between the two countries remain active.

The permits arrive against a backdrop of years of pipeline battles between Washington and Ottawa.

Trump has pushed for the revival of the Keystone XL pipeline, which would transport crude oil from Canada to the United States.

“The company building the Keystone XL Pipeline that was viciously jettisoned by the incompetent Biden Administration should come back to America, and get it built—NOW!” Trump wrote on Truth Social in February 2025.

The Keystone XL project was ultimately suspended on Jan. 20, 2021, when then-President Joe Biden revoked its presidential permit, citing the need to “advance environmental justice.” Biden argued the project would “not serve the U.S. national interest” based on an analysis conducted under the Obama administration citing climate risk.

Canada has been eager to expand its access to U.S. markets. Calgary-based Enbridge Inc. has been in talks with customers about expanding its Mainline pipeline network—the largest pipeline system in North America—to handle growing volumes of Canadian oil output. Canada currently sends 97 percent of its oil exports and 100 percent of its natural gas exports to the United States, leaving it with limited leverage in any trade dispute.

Wednesday’s permits are the latest step in Trump’s strategy to make North America self-sufficient in energy and a dominant exporter.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 11:05

Can You Price In No Longer Pricing Things In?

By Michael Every of Rabobank

At this point it isn’t a random walk but a determined march: markets have decided the Iran war and the Hormuz blockades are over, and everything is going to be better than normal imminently: the Nasdaq and S&P are at all-time highs and even worries over private credit are receding. In the real world, there are signs that back that stance and ones that say otherwise.

Iran warned it could sink US ships in Hormuz if they police the waterway and the Houthis could blockade the Red Sea. The FT reports Iran used a Chinese spy satellite to target US bases. Note the subtext to Trump’s subsequent Truth Social post: “China is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz. I am doing it for them, also - And the World. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran. President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are working together smartly, and very well! Doesn't that beat fighting??? BUT REMEMBER, we are very good at fighting, if we have to - far better than anyone else!!!"

Yet the US and Iran are reportedly weighing a two-week truce extension and inching towards a framework deal, as the latter feels the economic pressure; crucially, China is seen pressing Iran to open Hormuz; and Tehran has offered a proposal allowing ships to exit the Oman side of the Strait free of attack, if a wider deal with the US can be struck. That looks like the face-saving way for the regime to re-open the Strait… if there can be a “grand bargain” on the nuclear issue, missiles, and its regional proxies. Matching that trend, Israel is close to a one-week ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, even if there is no clear way to rid the country of the terror group despite the Israeli and Lebanese authorities now seeming united in wanting to do so.

Potentially, we could still see this war end in line with what has been our base case for a while now: a broad --if naturally disputed-- US win vs Iran by the second to third week of April, giving it de facto control of a new Middle East (or, less likely, a belated TACO). Yet the downside is longer blockades, with tail risks of any new escalation deepening and/or widening the war. The latter scenario might only be priced into the physical market, not the oil futures markets.

Meanwhile, the US Beige Book noted “The conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture… Many Districts continued to report signs of consumer financial strain, increased price sensitivity, and rising demand at food banks and other social service organizations, while spending among higher-income consumers was resilient… several Districts reported that rising crop prices helped offset steep price increases of fertilizer and fuel.”

Australia needs more energy imports as a fire rages at one of its two oil refineries, the latest in a series of such accidents at the few western facilities still operating. An accident, sabotage, or just the result of over-working the facility in a crisis? Regardless, the founder of Ivanhoe Mines states that: “The Australian mining industry is now on the verge of collapse due to diesel shortages… the fuel supply chain that powers every drill, truck, and haul is about to snap.” Who drove that decline in refineries, one may ask? Markets and their uncanny ability to ‘price things in.’

China’s Canton Fair is clouded by higher costs hitting its exporters due to the Iran war.

Brussels warned EU countries not to hoard fuel within their borders weeks after telling everyone there was no risk of an energy crisis. Reportedly, the European Commission also wants to see fossil fuels taxed higher than electricity to drive the EU towards renewable energy in the long term – as member states are doing the opposite in the face of this crisis so far; and, from a broader geopolitical perspective, as we see the warning that ‘Fuel scarcity is European armies’ ‘Achilles’ heel.’ No military, and no mine, currently runs on electricity.

But let’s look to the ‘all-time highs’ post-war period and see if that’s really priced in or not.

Lots of scores will be settled in lots of places. As just one example of many, Trump has warned that the US-UK trade deal “can always be changed” with bilateral relations in a “sad state” after Britain was “not there when we needed them” on Iran.

There will be major structural shifts. For example, the IMF warns the war threatens to turbocharge a looming government debt crisis. The longer the blockade goes on, the more this is true. Defence spending is going to soar even higher even faster in even more places.

Specifically, the US is pushing for a staggering $1.5 trillion defense budget, up nearly 50%, and it’s using Iran and the ‘China threat’ to convince Congress to spend (read: borrow) much more. Very significantly, the Pentagon has also approached US automakers and manufacturers to ask if they can boost weapons production, e.g., GM or Ford shifting capacity from civilian to military. I’ve long argued neo-mercantilism and the US WW2 heuristic underlined ‘resilience’ requires a broad manufacturing base that can be adapted for military purposes in a crisis; that requires commodities and energy; and, in the face of others’ neo-mercantilism, it also means tariffs, subsidies, price controls, and a stronger state hand.

Indeed, alongside the farcical disconnect between the oil screen price --where investigations are underway into potential insider trading before Trump policy pivots-- and the physical price of a barrel, that Pentagon request is a clear ‘Reverse Perestroika’: a shift from markets and consumption to state-led military-industrial production, which requires other key components to succeed, including the Fed.

Notably, Trump is refusing to allow to halt the criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell --the DOJ made a surprise visit to the Fed’s under-renovation headquarters, where they were turned away: a blockade?-- while threatening to fire him if he won’t step down from the FOMC when his term ends on May 15. Powell says he won’t step down from the Committee until Warsh is appointed as Chair by the Senate; the Senate won’t appoint Warsh until the criminal prosecution of Powell is dropped. Does somebody need both sides to go to Pakistan to sort this out? But seriously, explain the logic of the Fed remaining untouched while epic shifts in geopolitics and political economy are underway; and do it without saying, “because markets.”

On which note, New York Mayor Mamdani also announced ‘Happy Tax Day’ aimed at raising $500m by taxing billionaires’ pied-a-terres in Manhattan: how much are their equivalents in Miami, one wonders?

Happy Tax Day, New York. We’re taxing the rich. pic.twitter.com/Wky2LFXC9W

— Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani (@NYCMayor) April 15, 2026

Pulling this all together, it’s not just that the market has priced in only one possible geopolitical scenario ahead: it’s not pricing that geopolitics suggests a future when things aren’t priced in as the norm. At which point, what are markets for? Try answering that without answering what GDP is for.

I conclude by noting that a social media meme going round yesterday had two dinosaurs looking at a huge meteor approaching to impact the earth. The first says, “That doesn’t look good for us.” The second replies, “Don’t worry, it’s priced in.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 10:25

Former Virginia Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax And Wife Found Dead In Apparent Murder-Suicide

Justin Fairfax, the former lieutenant governor of Virginia, and his wife, Cerina Fairfax, a dentist, were found dead in an apparent murder-suicide at their home shortly after midnight on Thursday, according to Fairfax County police.

Justin Fairfax in 2019. He served as Virginia’s lieutenant governor from 2018 to 2022.Credit...Parker Michels-Boyce for The New York Times

Fairfax, 47, shot and killed his wife before turning the gun on himself, Police Chief Kevin Davis said. The couple’s teenage children were home at the time of the shootings.

Davis described the deaths as the result of an “ongoing domestic dispute surrounding a complicated or messy divorce.” Court records show that the Fairfaxes had been engaged in divorce proceedings this year.

Fairfax, a Democrat, served as Virginia’s lieutenant governor from 2018 to 2022 after winning election in 2017 alongside Gov. Ralph Northam. He largely remained out of the spotlight until 2019, when a series of scandals engulfed the state’s Democratic leadership.

The crisis began when old medical school yearbook photos surfaced appearing to show Governor Northam in blackface. As calls mounted for Northam’s resignation, two women came forward to accuse Mr. Fairfax, who would have been next in line for the governorship, of sexual assault. One alleged the assault occurred in 2000 at Duke University; the other said it took place in 2004 at the Democratic National Convention, the NY Times reports.

Fairfax denied both allegations - but the accusations effectively stalled momentum to force Northam from office. The situation grew more chaotic when the state attorney general, the third-ranking Democrat in Virginia’s executive branch, admitted he too had worn blackface as a college student. All three men ultimately served out their full terms.

Insisting he had done nothing wrong, Fairfax launched a bid for governor in the 2021 Democratic primary. In one televised debate, he accused his rival, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, of “treating me like Emmett Till” for calling on him to resign over the sexual assault allegations.

With minimal institutional support and limited fundraising, Fairfax finished fourth in the primary, receiving just 3.6 percent of the vote. Mr. McAuliffe won the nomination but lost the general election to Republican Glenn Youngkin.

You're never going to believe what happened next. https://t.co/pvwGEeQald

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) April 16, 2026

Fairfax had kept a low public profile since leaving office. Thursday’s tragedy marks a grim end to a once-promising political career that was repeatedly overshadowed by scandal and personal turmoil.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 10:05

DOJ Petitions Court To Toss Convictions Of Unpardoned Jan. 6 Defendants

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

The Justice Department is petitioning an appeals court to throw out the convictions of unpardoned defendants who were charged in connection with the U.S. Capitol breach on Jan. 6, 2021.

“The United States has determined ... that dismissal of this criminal case is in the interests of justice,” read a motion filed April 14 in the case of Elmer Stewart Rhodes III, Kelly Meggs, Kenneth Harrelson, and Jessica Watkins.

All four defendants belonged to the Oath Keepers, a group that says its members are mostly former military, police, and medics who are dedicated to upholding Constitutional rights. Rhodes, the group’s founder, had been one of the most high-profile Jan. 6 defendants; he was sentenced to 18 years in prison for seditious conspiracy and other charges.

In their motion filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, federal prosecutors said they would file separate motions-to-vacate in “similar” Jan. 6 cases.

Those cases involve four other Oath Keepers—Roberto Minuta, Edward Vallejo, David Moerschel, and Joseph Hackett—along with Proud Boys members Ethan Nordean, Joseph Biggs, Zachary Rehl, and Dominic Pezzola.

The Proud Boys group has said it is open to men who are “gay or straight,” and of all races and religions who support Western values that created the modern world.

After being sworn in as the 47th president in 2025, President Donald Trump granted full pardons to about 1,500 people who faced Jan. 6 charges.

However, he stopped short of pardoning 14 defendants who were Oath Keepers and Proud Boys.

He instead commuted their sentences, leaving their convictions still standing.

Cases involving 12 of those defendants are part of the motion that U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro signed on April 14.

The remaining two defendants who had not received pardons include Oath Keeper associate Thomas Caldwell, who received a delayed presidential pardon in March 2025. The other is former Proud Boy Jeremy Bertino, who admitted guilt and served as a prosecution witness against other Proud Boys.

If the Washington appeals court vacates the convictions as requested, prosecutors then would move to dismiss the cases “with prejudice,” Pirro wrote.

That specification would permanently bar prosecutors from refiling the charges.

Since 1977, the U.S. Supreme Court has “recognized that appellate courts have authority” to take the action Pirro has requested, the filing said.

Some members of the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys did receive pardons, including former Proud Boys national chairman Henry “Enrique” Tarrio. He had been convicted of seditious conspiracy and other charges that brought a 22-year sentence—the longest meted out to any Jan. 6 defendant.

Last year, Tarrio, Biggs, Rehl, Nordean, and Pezzola filed a $100 million civil lawsuit against the federal government, alleging prosecutors violated their constitutional rights.

Nicholas Smith, an attorney who represents Nordean, expressed gratitude to the Justice Department for its “wise decision” in seeking dismissal of the convictions.

“We don’t want a precedent that says that any physical confrontation between protesters and law enforcement means a crime akin to treason, such as seditious conspiracy,” Smith said.

However, former Metropolitan Police Officer Michael Fanone, who suffered a heart attack after a rioter shocked him with a stun gun on Jan. 6, spoke out against the Justice Department’s motion to throw out the convictions.

“I would remind Americans that these were traitors to this country,” Fanone said. “They planned, incited, and carried out an insurrection.”

In a post on X, John Strand, a Jan. 6 defendant and conservative activist, said the government’s move constituted “exoneration” for defendants who were “entrapped and crushed by an evil, weaponized government.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 09:45

US Industrial Production Unexpectedly Drops In March (After Huge Upward Revision For Feb)

At first glance the 0.5% MoM decline in US Industrial production (considerably worse than than the 0.1% MoM rise expected - and dragging YoY growth in IP down to +0.74%) is bad news... suggesting immediate impacts from the war are being felt and sparking headlines decrying President Trump's actions.

Source: Bloomberg

However, while we agree that the decline is notable, the fact that February's data was revised drastically higher, from +0.2% to +0.7% MoM, means that over the two months, industrial production overall is actually higher (and up 0.2% since the end of the war)...

Source: Bloomberg

Energy was behind the slowdown:

• March oil and gas drilling posted a decline of 2.4% m/m after rising 0.6% in Feb., Federal Reserve data show.

• March consumer energy products was decline of 2.1% m/m after rising 2.3% in Feb.

• March commercial energy products declined 0.3% m/m after increasing 0.8% in Feb.

.

A similar picture evolves for Manufacturing production which fell 0.1% MoM in March (worse than the 0.1% MoM rise expected) after February's 0.2% MoM rise was revised up 2x to a 0.4% MoM rise. Nevertheless, Manufacturing production YoY slowed to just 0.5%...

Source: Bloomberg

Bottom Line: it's not great news that industrial production is slowing... but it's not as dire as it looks at first glance (and remember Manufacturing PMIs were strong)...

...and energy production is unpredictable at best in the current environment.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 09:35

War Economy Returns: From Trucks To Tanks, Pentagon Looks To Automakers To Rebuild America's Arsenal

With two active conflict areas in Eurasia - the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Eastern Europe and the U.S.-Iran theater in the Gulf - the world is moving deeper into a war cycle. The latest indicator is not only that militaries around the world are beginning to stockpile one-way attack drones, but also the early-stage push to convert underused civilian industrial capacity, including struggling auto production lines, into wartime manufacturing hubs.

The Wall Street Journal is out with a new report that describes just that, noting that the Trump administration is exploring whether U.S. manufacturers, including GM, Ford, GE Aerospace, and Oshkosh, can convert civilian industrial capacity into weapons production as conflicts across Eurasia drag on and deplete critical weapons stockpiles.

The effort to boost the war economy is part of what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has described as putting the defense industrial base on a "wartime footing."

A Department of War official said the agency "is committed to rapidly expanding the defense industrial base by leveraging all available commercial solutions and technologies to ensure that our warfighters maintain a decisive advantage."

Senior defense officials told the outlet that Mary Barra of General Motors and Jim Farley of Ford Motor have been briefed on converting auto production lines into weapons manufacturing facilities. The report did not provide details on what types of weapons could be produced in the factories or on the downtime required to convert those lines.

Those officials said GE Aerospace and vehicle and machinery maker Oshkosh were among other manufacturers briefed.

The historical precedent is that America converted its automotive base during World War II to produce record numbers of main battle tanks, bombers, and fighter planes to win the war.

Let's not forget that GM and Ford both repurposed production lines during the Covid pandemic to produce ventilators, so it's not far-fetched that these automakers could one day be rolling tanks down the production lines.

One major hurdle is the far-left unions, which could force labor actions such as strikes, as the broader left-wing ecosystem has transformed into a pressure campaign against anything related to Trump, whether foreign or domestic policy.

Evidence of converting underused civilian industrial capacity has already been seen with the German automaker Volkswagen, which will soon transform its Lower Saxony factory from producing T-Roc Cabriolets to manufacturing parts for the Iron Dome missile interceptor system.

In mid-February, we highlighted a conversation between Anduril Industries founder Palmer Luckey and Joe Rogan about how the U.S. won World War II. Luckey noted:

"How did the United States win World War II … Manufacturing. Some of it was new factories, but most of it was taking over old factories."

.@PalmerLuckey “WWII we turned our automotive factories into missile factories” https://t.co/P6ZjQsPjeW pic.twitter.com/uUJmcTTupU

— Molly O’Shea (@MollySOShea) April 16, 2026

That's why Chinese autos will never flood the U.S.: it would destroy the auto industrial base that can easily be converted to wartime production. However, the current left-wing regime in Europe has already chosen to hollow out its industrial core by flooding the continent with BYD cars.

This is wartime stuff.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 09:35

Sotomayor Apologizes After Criticizing Kavanaugh Over Immigration Case

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Supreme Court Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor apologized in a statement for comments she recently made about Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

“At a recent appearance at the University of Kansas School of Law, I referred to a disagreement with one of my colleagues in a prior case, but I made remarks that were inappropriate,” Sotomayor said in the statement released by the Supreme Court.

“I regret my hurtful comments. I have apologized to my colleague.”

Sotomayor was at an event April 7 at the University of Kansas School of Law when she criticized Kavanaugh over his stance involving U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents stopping individuals to question them about their immigration status.

Her remarks appeared to reference the Supreme Court’s Sept. 8, 2025, emergency order in Noem v. Vasquez Perdomo, which allowed immigration enforcement to continue while legal challenges proceed.

The Supreme Court issued a temporary order allowing the practice to continue while the case moves through the courts.

In a concurring opinion, Brett Kavanaugh wrote that such encounters are typically brief and that individuals are generally released quickly.

“I had a colleague in that case who wrote, you know, these are only temporary stops,” Sotomayor said, referencing Kavanaugh, according to Bloomberg.

“This is from a man whose parents were professionals. And probably doesn’t really know any person who works by the hour.”

Kavanaugh’s parents were Martha Kavanaugh, an associate judge in Maryland, and Everett Kavanaugh Jr., a Washington lobbyist.

Sotomayor’s parents were Juan Sotomayor, a tool worker with a third-grade education, and Celina Baez, a nurse.

Jonathan Turley, a law professor at George Washington University Law School, said Sotomayor’s criticism of Kavanaugh suggested “that he is an out-of-touch elitist.”

“The suggestion is that Kavanaugh has avoided—and continues to avoid—interactions with people who get paid on an hourly basis—while she is more inclusive in her circle of friends. It is obviously false, but more importantly, petty and unfair,” Turley posted April 12 on X.

David French, a former attorney and columnist for The New York Times, said Sotomayor’s comments were “inappropriate.”

“This gets a little personal feeling to me,” French said on The Dispatch podcast on April 14.

“Maybe they know each other well enough to where she can make assumptions or make educated guesses about what his parents experienced or their broader experience. I don’t know. To me, it’s not even a close call. It was over the line in its personal nature.”

The Epoch Times reached out to Sotomayor and Kavanaugh for comment.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 09:10

"The Roaring 2020s Are Back": S&P Futures Hit New Record With Nasdaq Up 12 Straight Days On Iran Truce Optimism

Stock futures are edging higher on continued optimism about an extended truce in the Middle East, while Taiwan Semi's solid results have sparked another leg higher in AI trade. As of 8:15 am ET, S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts +0.2%, and on pace for a 12th day of gains. The early hours of the session saw a sharp rally in technology stocks after TSMC's upbeat revenue outlook highlighted the resilience of AI chip demand. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were mostly higher led by MSFT +1.8% and TSLA +1.3%.  On geopolitical headlines, the White House remains optimistic on the second round of talk (key Pakistani negotiator visits Tehran); Israel’s security cabinet met to discuss a possible ceasefire. Bond yields are 0-2bp lower with a modest gain in the dollar. Brent rose toward $96 a barrel as movements through the Strait of Hormuz remained all but paralyzed. Bonds rose, led by gains in Europe where central bank policymakers signaled they’re in no rush to raise interest rates. The dollar snapped an eight-day losing streak while gold rose above $4,800 an ounce. April’s strong stock rebound is being driven by a new kind of FOMO, according to Ed Yardeni, with Goldman saying that "despite the sharp market rebound, positioning has not fully caught up."  Still, while equities are “definitely pricing” the end of the war, we are “not there yet,” cautioned HSBC’s Patrick George while the IMF and World Bank are also worried that markets are underestimating the war’s economic damage. Today's US economic data calendar includes April New York Fed services business activity, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and March industrial production (9:15am). Fed speaker slate includes Williams (8:35am) and Miran (10:35am)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Microsoft +1.3%, Tesla +0.7%, Meta Platforms +0.5%, Nvidia -0.4%, Alphabet -0.2%, Apple +0.8%, Amazon -0.1%

• Nuclear and uranium companies are set to extend this week’s rally after the White House released rules for establishing a National Initiative for American Space Nuclear Power. Oklo (OKLO) +7%, NuScale Power (SMR) +10%.
• Quantum computing shares are on track to extend gains for a third consecutive session after Nvidia unveiled a suite of new open-source AI models aimed at accelerating progress within quantum computing.
• Allbirds (BIRD) tumbles 21% as the newly minted AI stock takes a breather after soaring more than 580% on Thursday.
• Hims & Hers (HIMS) rises 9%, with shares on track to extend the previous day’s 14% rally, after Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the FDA is seeking to remove 12 peptides from Category 2 restrictions.
• PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) gains 1% after quarterly revenue and earnings beat expectations as the maker of Doritos and Lay’s sees improvement in salty snacks volume following recent price cuts.
• PPG Industries (PPG) rises 3% after the supplier of paints and coatings posted preliminary first quarter adjusted earnings per share that topped expectations.
• QuidelOrtho Corp. (QDEL) sinks 17% after the health care services provider posted disappointing preliminary first-quarter revenue as US flu-like illness visits fell by about 30% from the year-earlier period.
• Travelers (TRV) slips 1.4% after the insurance company posted first quarter results where net premiums written declined 1.7% from the year-ago period.
• U.S. Bancorp (USB) rises about 1% after first-quarter profit beat estimates, as Chief Executive Officer Gunjan Kedia rounds out her first year leading the largest regional bank and boosting its stock.
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG) gains 6% after the defense and space company signed an order with NASA for the seventh Private Astronaut Mission to the International Space Station.

Elsewhere in AI, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang said the US should seek greater cooperation with China on AI research. Politicians are also weighing in on the global AI race, with House Republicans calling for US sanctions against Chinese entities that improperly extract results from leading US AI models to develop their own competing systems. Today’s Big Take focuses on Anthropic’s race to assess the dangers of Mythos.

Stock markets have rebounded as signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, combined with a fresh burst of AI optimism and corporate earnings, pushed investors to abandon their cautious views.  Sentiment was boosted by lack of bad Iran news again: this time, the US and Iran are said to be considering a two-week ceasefire extension to allow more time to negotiate a peace deal; the next meeting between US / Iran may take place later this week with chatter from Pakistani media that Trump is said to be in attendance. April’s strong stock rebound is being driven by a new kind of FOMO, the fear of missing out on peace, according to Ed Yardeni, who said that for stocks, the V-shaped recovery this month makes it feel “like the Roaring 2020s are back." Still, while equities are “definitely pricing” the end of the war, we are “not there yet,” cautioned HSBC’s Patrick George. The IMF and World Bank are also worried that markets are underestimating the war’s economic damage.

In the latest developments in the conflict, Pakistan stepped up efforts to help the US and Iran prolong a ceasefire that’s set to expire next week.

“Investors have become conditioned to buy every dip,” said Michael Bell, head of market strategy at RBC BlueBay Asset Management. “The outlook is binary, either Hormuz reopens soon or it doesn’t. With equity markets already assuming Hormuz will reopen soon, the upside is perhaps limited.” 

The AI narrative is back in focus after TSMC raised its outlook for 2026, forecasting revenue growth of more than 30% and saying that capex is likely to lean toward the upper end of its forecast ($56 billion). Elon Musk’s Terafab project, which aims to reshape the chipmaking landscape dominated by TSMC, is reaching out to chip industry suppliers and asking them to move at ‘light speed’ on his project.

“TSMC describing AI demand as ‘extremely robust,’ pushing capex to the upper end of a $52-56 billion range, and signaling that the next three years of investment will significantly exceed the last three; that is not the language of a cycle nearing its peak,” said Amanda Lyons, information technology sector lead and head of research at Energy Group Capital.

While the S&P 500 hit a new record on Wednesday, valuation ratios are still well below the levels seen in late 2025, indicating that earnings forecasts are moving up faster than stock prices. The current 12-month forward blended PE multiple for the S&P 500 of about 21 times compares to a peak of 23 times in November. The rally is also without breadth, with more decliners than advances as the gauge passed 7,000.

Another concerning fact about the latest record high: it was reach with more decliners than advancers, suggesting the leadership of this meltup is becoming dangerously narrow. 

Lack of breadth however hasn't stopped the Nasdaq from going from oversold to overbought in 2 weeks.

Technology stocks have been snapped up in recent weeks after lagging the market for much of the year, putting the Nasdaq 100 on course for its longest winning streak since 2017 if the gauge extends gains on Thursday.

Claudia Panseri of UBS Wealth Management said her exposure to artificial intelligence stocks is focused on the US and China and is “more selective” than two years ago. “We also prefer companies which are still investing using cash, rather than companies issuing bonds,” Panseri told Bloomberg TV.

Some stocks face a volatile option expiry into Friday, with $3.3 trillion notional of options open interest expiring across US indexes, ETFs and single stocks. Investors are “scrambling” for the “under-owned right tail” according to Nomura’s cross asset desk strategist Charlie McElligott.

Meanwhile, the latest private credit headlines have a more reassuring tone, with Goldman Sachs’ global head of alternatives for wealth saying she expects private credit firms to keep drawing capital despite recent redemption episodes. That follows Blue Owl shares posting their biggest two-day gain since November 2022, and reassurances from US banks that their exposure to private credit is manageable.

Technology stocks fueled gains in Europe where the Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%. Technology and retail shares are leading gains, while telecoms and food beverage stocks are the biggest laggards. Optimism surrounding the sector got a boost after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. raised its revenue outlook for 2026. Here are the biggest movers Thursday: 

• Entain shares rise as much as 6.6% after its first-quarter online gaming revenue grew faster than expected, offsetting weaker retail and adverse sports results, according to analysts
• Tesco shares rise as much as 3.5% after the UK’s largest supermarket chain delivered annual earnings ahead of expectations
• Mitie Group rises as much as 4.5%, touching a record high, after the support services provider delivered a trading update
• Barry Callebaut shares drop as much as 17%, hitting the lowest level since November, after the Swiss chocolate maker reported first-half earnings that missed estimates and lowered guidance for the year
• Kering shares fall as much as 4.6% after the French owner of Gucci outlined financial ambitions at its capital markets day that analysts deemed cautious
• EasyJet shares fall as much as 8.7%, the most since June 2022, as the low-cost airline forecasts a 1H26 headline pretax loss of between £540 million ($733 million) and £560 million
• Heidelberger Druckmaschinen shares drop as much as 9.2%, pulling back from a two-month high, after the printing press maker issued a profit warning

Earlier in the session, Asian tech stocks also  climbed to a record high, while Taiwan’s total market cap topped $4.1 trillion to overtake the UK. Asian markets rose, with a key regional benchmark on course for a third-straight day of gains, on optimism over corporate earnings and a potential US-Iran ceasefire extension. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1.5%, with Samsung Electronics and Alibaba among the biggest boosts. Technology stocks led gains, with a sector gauge climbing to a new record high. South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index rose more than 2% each, while Taiwan’s total market cap climbed above $4.1 trillion to overtake the UK. Investors are renewing their interest in the artificial intelligence theme with support from resilient earnings at Asian tech hardware makers. At the same time, an outlook for an eventual end to the Middle East conflict and tamer energy prices is gaining traction. Among key moves, EV battery maker CATL climbed more than 10% in Hong Kong after better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, chip giant TSMC raised its revenue outlook for 2026, an upbeat forecast that underscores the resilience of AI chip demand.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2% and on course to snap an eight-day losing streak. The kiwi is the laggard among the G-10’s, falling 0.4% against the greenback. The pound falls 0.2% having derived little support from stronger-than-expected UK GDP data.

In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across the curve with gains led by the front-end and belly, supported by a wider bull steepening move seen across European bonds with oil prices steady. US yields lower by up to 2bp across front-end and belly with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads steeper by around 0.5bp and 1.2bp on the day. US 10-year trades around 4.265%, richer by 1.5bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 1.5bp and 1bp in the sector. In Europe, both UK and German 2-year yields outperform, richer by over 5bp on an outright basis, follows UK manufacturing data printing lower-than-expected. The US session includes weekly claims and a couple of Fed speakers.

In commodities, brent crude futures climb 1.6% to around $96.40 a barrel. European government bonds gain, led by the short-end as traders pare bets on interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and European Central Bank this year. UK and German 2-year yields fall 4 bps each. Precious metals advance, although are off their best levels. 

Today's US economic data calendar includes April New York Fed services business activity, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and March industrial production (9:15am). Fed speaker slate includes Williams (8:35am) and Miran (10:35am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 +0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.28%
• VIX little changed at 18.14
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1193.41
• euro -0.2% at $1.178
• WTI crude +1.7% at $92.84/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Pakistan is stepping up efforts to ensure the US and Iran prolong a ceasefire that’s set to end next week, allowing more time for the warring sides to negotiate a lasting peace deal. The US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension, according to a person familiar with the matter, with neither side desiring to restart fighting. BBG
• The Trump administration wants automakers and other American manufacturers to play a larger role in weapons production, reminiscent of a practice used during World War II: WSJ
• Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum will urge the heads of top U.S. oil and gas companies in a call Thursday to increase drilling in a bid to lower oil prices. Politico
• China's economy picked up speed early in 2026, riding an export surge before the Iran war sent energy costs soaring and put global demand - vital to Beijing's growth ambitions - at risk. The 5.0% year-on-year pace in the first quarter sits at the top of China's full-year target range of 4.5%-5.0%, highlighting a resilience that sets it ‌apart from much of Asia, helped by ample strategic oil reserves and a diversified energy mix. RTRS
• Australian employment rose by 17,900 in March, missing expectations and driven entirely by full-time roles, while the jobless rate held at 4.3%. BBG
• The UK economy grew 0.5% in February, beating estimates to post its strongest monthly reading since January 2024. Activity was boosted by the services sector, though the data predate the Iran war. BBG
• Policymakers at the European Central Bank are leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged this month, postponing their verdict on whether the fallout of the Iran war warrants a response. BBG
• Senator Thom Tillis is blocking Trump’s Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, until the Justice Department drops an investigation into Powell. And the stalemate is leaving him in limbo with no clear off-ramp in sight. Politico
• Anthropic’s Mythos is so skilled at hacking that access is tightly controlled. The system’s ability to autonomously find and exploit vulnerabilities is forcing banks and governments to rethink cybersecurity. BBG
• Foreign holdings of Treasuries soared to a record $9.49 trillion in February. Canada led with a $50.5 billion increase, while Japan remained the largest holder. BBG

Iran Conflict

• The Trump admin's goal is to bring both sides to the brink of an overarching deal to end the conflict that can then be pushed over the finish line in a second face-to-face meeting, according to ABC, citing officials. The officials acknowledge that technical talks to hammer out the fine details and implementation of the arrangement will likely take longer to complete, perhaps eventually necessitating an extension of the initial ceasefire, but that pushing back the truce’s expiration date isn’t a top priority for the administration at the moment.
• US President Trump told guests Monday night he wants to bring the war in Iran to a swift end; said only way to get Iran back to negotiating table was to increase the pressure, according to WSJ citing officials at the dinner.
• US President Trump posted "Trying to get a little breathing room between Israel and Lebanon. It has been a long time since the two leaders have spoken, like 34 years. It will happen tomorrow. Nice!".
• Pakistani Army Chief is heading to the US on Friday as part of mediation efforts between the US and Iran, Al Jazeera reported citing a Pakistani security source.
• Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said the US and Iran are willing to hold talks and the process is continuing but no date decided for next round of US-Iran talks.
• A military advisor to the Islamic Revolution Leader said Iranian Armed Forces’ launchers are ready to hit American warships and sink all of them, Press TV reported.
• A senior Iranian official said the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium and the duration of its nuclear restrictions remain unresolved, adding that fundamental disagreements persist over nuclear issues. Iranian official said there are greater hopes for extending the ceasefire and holding a second round of talks after the trip, adding that the Pakistani army chief’s visit to Iran helped reduce differences in some areas.
• Iranian officials will meet with Pakistan's army chief on Thursday in Tehran and will discuss US proposals, according to TASS.
• Iran and the Pakistani mediator will discuss details of the messages exchanged between Tehran and Washington tomorrow, Thursday; via Al Jazeera citing Iranian TV.
• Journalist Abas Aslani posted source said Iran-US talks are far less positive [than reported] due to contradictory US stances & Israeli spoiler efforts, media push hyping success of talks is a PR manoeuvre to calm markets and shield Trump from pressure.
• Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan said Islamabad is the sole venue for Iran–US talks.
• Diplomatic sources suggest that "Washington is pressing forcefully to cool down the Lebanese front", via Kan's Kais; "Second round of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon will take place in Washington soon". "Second round of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon will take place in Washington soon, and that the current contacts are focused on achieving a temporary ceasefire that will lay the groundwork for ending the war."
• Two Israeli officials said the meeting of the political security cabinet ended without a decision on a ceasefire in Lebanon, according to Axios's Ravid.
• Israeli media citing informed sources state that a ceasefire in Lebanon will not happen soon despite Trump's statements.
• Israeli army has not received any instructions so far to prepare for a ceasefire in Lebanon, via Al Arabiya citing local reported.
• Lebanese officials say a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is expected 'soon', according to FT.
• The next meeting between Israel and Lebanon is expected to be held early next week, via Sky news Arabia citing Israel Hayom.
• Iran's Interior Minister has ordered border governors to neutralise the threat of a naval blockade by strengthening and developing border trade by increasing imports of basic goods and exports of goods, utilising all national and regional capacities.
• Iranian politician affiliated with Resistance Front of Islamic Iran, Mohsen Rezaei said they will not leave the Strait of Hormuz until the full realisation of Iran's rights, adds that this time, Iran has set preconditions.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalifbaf said US should withdraw from 'Israel first' mistake and must comply with agreement, also said resistance and Iran are one soul both in war and ceasefire.
• Hezbollah fires long-range missiles at Tel Aviv, according to Defapress.
• Iranian military affiliated outlet Defapress claims that four ships broke the US naval blockade over the past 24 hours, citing satellite data.
• Israeli warplanes carried out a strike on the town of Shihabiya in southern Lebanon.
• US Central Command said US blockade has turned back 10 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz today.
• China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed to Iran that the Strait of Hormuz needs to reopen and stressed freedom of navigation in Hormuz, while he said Hormuz reopening is a unanimous call from the international community.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly gained following the positive lead from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq printed fresh all-time highs, amid tech strength and peace talk optimism. ASX 200 bucked the trend and gave back initial gains, and more, as notable outperformance in tech was offset by losses in energy, resources, materials, financials and miners. Nikkei 225 rallied to a fresh record high after reclaiming the 59,000 status amid the hopes for a Middle East resolution and with the index led by the momentum in tech stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher with further upside seen as the dust settled following the mixed Chinese GDP and activity data, in which GDP growth for Q1 missed expectations, but GDP Y/Y topped forecasts and printed at the high-end of China's official 2026 GDP growth target. Meanwhile, Industrial Production data for March was better-than-expected, but Retail Sales disappointed.

Top Asian News

• Japan's top FX diplomat Mimura said told US Treasury Secretary Bessent will upgrade FX developments as needed, and both sides agreed to coordinate closely on FX.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said regarding exchange rates, agreed to further intensify communication with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said many central bankers are adopting a wait-and-see stance, as raising interest rates could have a negative impact on the economy, adds it is impossible to predict when the current situation ends and spillover effects.
• Senior Japanese Financial Regulator official said Japan sees private credit as potential pillar in new strategy to meet corporate funding demand driven by M&A surge, according to reported.
• China NBS said the economy had a good start in Q1, but the external situation is becoming more complex, adds China is to expand domestic demand and optimise supply. China will implement proactive macro policies. Expects a complex, volatile external environment. China will consolidate economic recovery foundation. Sees mixed signs of strong supply and weak demand.
• Deutsche Bank upgrades China's 2026 real GDP growth to 4.9% (prev. 4.5%).
• Barclays raises China 2026 GDP growth view to 4.6% (prev. saw 4.0%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are broadly gaining, albeit only modestly. The CAC 40 is the outperformer, rebounding from Wednesday’s luxury-driven selloff. The FTSE 100 is also slightly higher this morning, after UK GDP came in far stronger than expected in February (0.5% vs exp. 0.1%). Sectors point to a positive bias. Top of the pile lies Technology, supported by strong TSMC earnings, which has lifted peers such ASML. Telecoms is the underperformer, with a downgrade for Telia weighing on the broader sector.

Top European News

• EU Inflation Rate MoM Final (Mar) M/M 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 0.6%, Low. 1.2%, High. 1.2%).
• EU Inflation Rate YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 1.9%, Low. 2.5%, High. 2.6%).
• EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.4%).
• UK Balance of Trade (Feb) -0.720B vs. Exp. -3.6B (Prev. 3.922B).
• UK Goods Trade Balance (Feb) -18.79B vs. Exp. -20.2B (Prev. -14.45B, Low. -20.5B, High. -14B).
• UK GDP YoY (Feb) Y/Y 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.8%).
• UK GDP MoM (Feb) M/M 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0%, Low. 0.0%, High. 0.3%).

Trade/Tariffs

• UK Europe Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds is expected to offer an update on the state of play in negotiations; EU Trade Chief Sefcovic, and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, will also provide keynotes, reported Politico.
• USTR Greer said US-China Board of Investment is to be a government forum, adds there's no situation where there's no trade between US and China, also said the Trump admin wants to be pragmatic regarding China.

FX

• DXY edged higher throughout the entirety of the European session following punchy Iran rhetoric. The index marked a session high of 98.21, rising from its earlier trough of 97.83 made in Asia. (Full Middle East analysis on the headline feed) As it stands, both US and Iran continue communication, but there is no confirmation yet on second-round talks or a ceasefire extension - not to mention Lebanon, which remains a key point. Aside from geopolitics, POLITICO reported this morning, "a growing chorus of Republicans, eager to install Warsh, are joining the call for the administration to end the probe" into Fed Chair Powell. This comes ahead of Warsh's hearing next week. The session ahead sees remarks from Fed’s Williams (voter), who will speak at a Federal Home Loan Bank of New York event, while Miran (voter, dovish dissenter) will speak on the global outlook.
• GBP knee-jerked higher on a stronger-than-expected UK GDP report from February, but now trades with very mild losses given the Dollar strength this morning. In brief, on a monthly basis, GDP rose 0.5%, while yearly saw an increase of 0.1%. This set of metrics did not encapsulate the US-Iran war and as such, MPC members will likely refer to the second-round effects of the energy shock before opting to adjust rates. Cable continues to trade towards recent highs and is essentially at pre-war levels. The pair attempted to breach 1.36, a rally which faltered at 1.3594.
• Antipodeans trade mixed. While Aussie is a touch firmer against a resilient USD following jobs data - Kiwi sits at the bottom of the pile as bets for RBNZ tightening pare a touch with markets implying 77bps of easing by year end (prev. c. 83bps). NZD/USD began falling in Asia, though losses extended throughout the European morning to trade at session lows of 0.5893, the move likely to face support @ 0.5892.
• JPY had a choppy overnight session with USD/JPY marking a session low of 158.27 after successful jawboning from Finance Minister Katayama; she told G7 members that Japan was watching FX with a high sense of urgency. She also reiterated close communication with the US Treasury. This, as is typically the case with the Japanese Finance Ministry, indicates officials are uncomfortable with the extent of JPY weakness, with JPY nearing the key 160 mark. Since these comments, JPY pared the entirety of the strength Katayama gave to the haven, pressured by the gains in the USD.

Central Banks

• ECB officials are said to be leaning towards an April rate hold.
• ECB's Schnabel said that the memory of high inflation remains fresh, and inflation expectations could be more fragile. Can afford to take time to analyse the Iran shock. We are in a relatively favourable position because we were successful in bringing down inflation to 2% before the war started, have monetary policy stance that is broadly neutral. To carefully consider data that may indicate inflation becoming entrenched or having second-round effects.
• ECB’s Demarco said policymakers must be patient on rate decisions, but warns an adverse scenario could materialise; adverse scenario could require two rate hikes; longer-term inflation expectations anchored.
• ECB's Muller said rate move at April meeting still cannot be ruled out, adds may not have all the data this month to determine if interest rates will have to be raised to tame an inflation surge and June meeting will offer greater body of information. No hard evidence of second-round effects of inflation.
• Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to deliver 25bp rate hikes in June and September 2026 (prev. saw hikes in April and June). Analysts expect energy prices to remain persistently high through 2026, significant pass-through into inflation is likely in coming months and ECB’s communication has remained largely hawkish on the path ahead.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks opened the European session with a positive bias, but have gradually edged off best levels as the risk tone deteriorated as the morning progressed. Initial optimism was facilitated by comments from both Israeli and Lebanese officials, who said that a ceasefire is expected soon, and talks are expected to continue in the near-term. On the Iranian front, President Trump said that “he wants to bring the war in Iran to a swift end”. Thereafter, in early morning trade, a military advisor to the Islamic Revolution Leader said Iranian Armed Forces’ launchers are ready to hit American warships and sink all of them – a comment which weighed on the risk tone at the time, leading to upside in the crude complex, which pressured global fixed paper.
• USTs are firmer by a couple of ticks and currently trades at the lower end of a 111-11 to 111-17 range. Ultimately, moving at the whim of geopolitical developments, with markets now awaiting clear details on when/if the second round of Iran-US talks will begin. From a domestic perspective, weekly initial jobless claims (215k expected from 219k) and continuing claims (exp. 1.84mln from 1.794mln), NY Fed services activity, Philly Fed manufacturing are all due.
• Bunds are firmer by around 15 ticks and currently trade within a 125.32 to 125.62 range. German paper, as above, is off its best levels as the risk tone slipped a bit. Domestic newsflow has been fairly limited this morning, aside from an updated Goldman Sachs call for the ECB; analysts now expect the ECB to deliver 25bps rate hikes in June and September 2026 (prev. saw April and June), citing expectations that energy prices will stay high through 2026, feed through materially into inflation in the coming months and keep ECB communication largely hawkish. As it stands, money markets fully price in a 25bps hike in July. Focus later will be on the ECB Minutes (Mar), where the Bank kept rates steady – traders will be cognizant of any commentary pertaining to the Middle East situation.
• Gilts are incrementally lower and trade within an 88.68 to 89.07 range. Slightly underperforming vs peers, given the hawkish impulses from a stronger-than-expected UK GDP report. In brief, on a monthly basis, GDP rose 0.5%, while yearly saw an increase of 0.1%. ING writes "UK output surged in February, but it's in line with a trend dating back to 2022, where growth is stronger in the first quarter than across the rest of the year. We're taking this latest data with a pinch of salt".

Commodities

• Regional mediators are actively working to extend the US-Iran ceasefire and secure a second round of talks, with both sides agreeing in principle to reconvene, though no date or venue has been set. The Trump administration is pushing a two-stage strategy: use sustained economic and military pressure to force Iran toward the brink of a broader deal, then finalise it in a follow-up face-to-face meeting, with technical negotiations on implementation likely to extend beyond the current truce. A senior Iranian official said the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium and the duration of its nuclear restrictions remain unresolved, adding that fundamental disagreements persist over nuclear issues.
• Pakistan has taken a central mediation role, coordinating messages between Tehran and Washington and engaging both politically and militarily, although officials confirm no timeline has been agreed for the next round. Despite publicly downplaying the need for a ceasefire extension, US officials acknowledge it may ultimately be required to keep negotiations alive as talks progress.
• Crude prices edged higher following yesterday’s losses as traders feel the ceasefire could be prolonged and negotiations restarted. Brent Jun holds above USD 95/bbl this European morning (in a USD 94.43-96.85/bbl range) while WTI Jun sits in a 87.32-89.82/bbl parameter.
• Spot gold trades modestly higher, just above USD 4,800/oz and well within yesterday’s USD 4,786-4,871/oz range. Base metals are flat/positive with 3M LME copper holding above USD 13k/t in a current USD 13,281.00-13,376.58/t range. Overnight data showed China’s Q1 growth accelerated on strong exports (Y/Y printed at the top end of China’s 2026 target of 4.5-5%), while March retail sales rose but slowed from February; analysts said the Iran war still poses risks to the outlook.
• Australia said it secures 100mln litres extra of diesel from Brunei and South Korea.
• Repsol (REP SM) is set to take back operational control of its Venezuelan oil assets and boost production following an agreement with the country’s government, according to FT.
• White House is expected to urge heads of oil and gas companies to increase drilling, according to POLITICO.
• Australia's Energy Minister reported that a fire at Viva Energy's (VEA AT) refinery is still not under control, while diesel and jet fuel output continues, but refinery fire may hit petrol production more.

Geopolitics (ex Iran)

• Ukrainian President Zelensky posted "there can be no normalization of Russia as it is today. Pressure on Russia must work", following heavy drone attacks, via X.
• Explosions reported in Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, while the Mayor said air defence systems have been activated

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Apr 11 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 213k, prior 219k
• 8:30 am: United States Apr Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 10, prior 18.1
• 8:30 am: United States Apr 4 Continuing Claims, est. 1810k, prior 1794k
• 9:15 am: United States Mar Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
• 9:15 am: United States Mar Capacity Utilization, est. 76.3%, prior 76.3%
• Individual investors are once again snapping up so-called “meme” stocks, an early sign that retail’s animal spirits are returning to the US equity market after the mid-month tax deadline and as geopolitical tensions abate.

Central Bank speakers

• 8:35 am: United States Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
• 10:35 am: United States Fed’s Miran Speaks in Moderated Discussion

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I'm back in the hotseat this morning after a holiday which saw the temperatures on the slopes range from -20 degrees at the start to +25 degrees by the end. It was truly remarkable. Just as I was driving home, I then picked up the most virulent form of man-flu which knocked me out for a few days, including any desire to have early EMR starts this week. All I could do over the weekend was lie on the sofa and watch 30 hours of Masters' golf coverage. It was brutal. I'll leave you to assess whether there was sympathy at home or not.

Just as I went on holiday, on March 30th the S&P 500 closed at 6343.7 and at an 8-month low. Fast forward 11 business days and we closed last night above 7,000 (+0.80% at 7,023) for the first time, some +10.71% higher and at record highs. Few would have believed this was possible at the time, but this episode has been a high beta version of the usual geopolitical playbook where the negative impact on average lasts 15 days and the full recovery usually takes another 15-20 days. In this example the decline was slightly beyond the 75th percentile through history and the trough took a week longer to arrive than the average but the recovery took a week or so less. However, the geopolitical playbook has broadly worked.

The rally is continuing in Asia this morning with the Nikkei (+2.06%) leading the gains and hitting fresh all-time highs on the back of technology and chip-related stocks. The KOSPI (+1.64%) is also rising significantly, back to around +47% YTD. Elsewhere the Hang Seng (+1.38%), CSI (+0.90%), and the Shanghai Composite (+0.53%) are all higher after a decent monthly dump of data this morning (details below). The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.34%) is a rare decliner. S&P 500 (+0.15%) and Nasdaq (+0.26%) futures are continuing to edge up.

Coming back to China, GDP grew +5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, surpassing forecasts of a +4.8% increase and showing an improvement from +4.5% in the preceding quarter. Additional data on economic activity released presented a mixed yet still resilient outlook, as industrial production increased by +5.7% in March compared to the same month last year, exceeding expectations of a +5.3% rise. However, retail sales advanced by +1.7% in March, falling short of the anticipated +1.9% increase, thereby underscoring ongoing weakness in domestic demand. New home prices continued their downward trend, decreasing by -0.21% in March, following a -0.28% decline in the previous month. So the property slump continues.

When it comes to the latest move higher, risk assets took their cue to continue to climb yesterday after the AP reported that the two sides were “in principle” in agreement on extending their April 7 truce, with Bloomberg later reporting that a two-week extension was being considered. So that raised hopes about a more durable ceasefire. White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that the sides remained locked in negotiations but that the US had not “formally requested an extension of the ceasefire.” On the Iranian side there was some optimism for a deal on the back of comments from Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei who told reporters that while the country’s right to peaceful use of nuclear energy “cannot be revoked”, the level and type of enrichment is “negotiable”.

As well as the new record for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq (+1.59%) reached a record of its own as the Mag 7 saw even larger gains (+2.48%). Technology and Consumer-oriented cyclicals drove the S&P gains again, with Autos (+6.59%), Software (+4.29%), Tech Hardware (+1.57%), and Consumer Services (+1.42%) the major outperformers, while commercial-oriented cyclicals lagged such as Cap Goods (-1.73%) and Materials (-1.29%).

Alongside the news from the Middle East, positive earnings helped to support US equities, with both Morgan Stanley (+4.52%) and Bank of America (+0.97%) advancing after their latest results. Coupled with other positive surprises, that’s helped to underscore the narrative of ongoing US economic strength, despite the recent surge in energy prices. Private credit concerns have also seen a couple days of respite as the two-day move in Blue Owl Capital is now over +17%, the biggest two-day rally since late-2022 after the company’s shares fell to its lowest publicly traded level last Friday.

Meanwhile, markets were intrigued by the story that US shoe brand AllBirds surged by +582% after it announced that it would rebrand as an AI compute business. From sneakers to servers, laces to latency, footware to firmware, comfort to compute! Bet you wish I was back on holiday or on the sofa!
In fixed income, treasury yields also rose after officials questioned the case for rate cuts. For instance, Cleveland Fed President Hammack said that her baseline was to keep rates on hold for a good while, and even Treasury Secretary Bessent said that he would “understand if the Fed needs to wait on rate cuts” even if he ultimately saw large cuts beyond that. So that helped yields to rise across the curve, with the 10yr yield (+3.6bps) rising to 4.283%, whilst the 2yr yield (+1.7bps) rose to 3.76%. This comes as Fed futures are again not pricing in a full Fed cut over the next 12 months. The latest data also supported those rate moves, with the Empire state manufacturing index for April up to a 5-month high of 11.0 (vs. 0.0 expected).

Earlier in Europe, equities were more subdued, particularly after some more negative earnings reports came through. That included French companies Kering (-9.29%) and Hermes (-8.22%), which weighed on the CAC 40 (-0.64%). And ASML also fell -4.22%, despite raising its full-year sales forecast. So equities took a hit across the continent, with the STOXX 600 (-0.43%) falling back, despite the more positive headlines about potential US-Iran talks.

Sovereign bonds also lost ground, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.0bps), OATs (+2.4bps) and gilts (+3.4bps) moving higher. However, expectations for an imminent ECB rate hike continued to decline, with pricing for an April hike down to a one-month low of 23.9% at the close yesterday. 58.3bps of hikes were priced in by year end at yesterday’s close, down from 81bps on March 24th.

Markets generally continue to trade on optimism that the conflict will ultimately be sorted out in weeks even if the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged. The US naval blockade is far from over, with US Central Command posting on X yesterday that no vessels have been able to make it past US forces, with 9 vessels complying with US direction to turn back to Iran.

Trump also announced that President Xi had given him a call, later posting that China is “very happy” that he is “permanently opening up” the Strait of Hormuz, and have agreed to not send their weapons to Iran. His post followed an earlier FT report that Iran had secretly acquired Chinese spy satellite to target US military bases across the Middle East during the conflict.

Finally, Australia’s labour market data showed that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3% in March. Meanwhile, employment experienced a modest increase of 17,900, compared to the anticipated 20,000, for the month. Firms contributed by adding 52,500 full-time positions, indicating a degree of underlying resilience despite a slight slowdown in hiring. This data emerges as the RBA cautions that it may be necessary to further increase interest rates in the upcoming months to mitigate inflation, which is already significantly above the target and poses a risk of rising even higher.

To the day ahead now, data releases include the US April New York Fed services business activity, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, March industrial production, and initial jobless claims. We’ll also get the ECB’s account of the March meeting, and hear from the Fed’s Williams and Miran, the ECB’s Schnabel, Kazaks, Rehn and Kocher, and the BoE’s Taylor.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 08:45

Despite 'Survey' Sadness, Jobless Claims Slide Near Historic Lows

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to just 207k (below the 213k expected and down from the prior 209.25k) - back near its lowest levels in 5 years (and trend towards its lowest level in 50 years)...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a small pick up last week, Continuing jobless claims have been below the 1.9 million Maginot Line since the start of the year...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as the following chart suggests, while it may be "hard to get" a new job, firing remains very low...

Source: Bloomberg

The 'no hire, no fire' economy is alive and kicking.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 08:37

Fire Erupts At Major Australian Refinery, Amplifying Fuel Shock As "Green" Killed Refining Buffer

Australia's failed "green" domestic energy policies had already sparked a fuel-supply shock shortly after the U.S.-Iran conflict disrupted tankers at the Hormuz chokepoint. Now, a fire has broken out at the larger of Australia's two remaining oil refineries, adding even more fuel supply woes. 

Victoria state fire authorities said the blaze erupted at Viva Energy's 120,000-barrel-per-day Geelong refinery, one of only two operating oil refineries left in Australia. The refinery accounts for roughly 10% to 12% of Australia's fuel supply while covering about half of Victoria's fuel demand.

Reported Viva Energy's Corio refinery in Geelong is ablaze

Source: Geelong Community FB pic.twitter.com/oRsI10fVr3

— Timjbo 🇦🇺 (@TimjboAU) April 15, 2026

Reuters cited authorities early Thursday saying the fire at the refinery is now "under control."

In a separate report, Al Jazeera noted that flames were reported to be as high as 200 feet and that a "gas leak" was potentially the source of the fire.

An oil refinery is engulfed in flames after an explosion in Victoria on Wednesday morning.

Viva Energy in Corio, near Geelong, is one of Australia’s last two oil refineries, and the blaze which engulfed it comes amid a global fuel crisis.

The refinery supplies over 50 per cent… pic.twitter.com/ovPkuIGO73

— 7NEWS Australia (@7NewsAustralia) April 15, 2026

"This is not a positive development, but obviously there's a long way to go in terms of working out just what the impact is," Energy Minister Chris Bowen told local outlet Channel Nine.

The incident has once again exposed how thin Australia's refining buffer has become after "green" was prioritized over common-sense domestic energy policies, including the import of a vast share of its fuel needs from the Gulf.

Viva Energy said the incident is set to affect petrol and aviation gasoline. The good news is that the plant is still producing jet fuel and diesel.

Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst John Coyne warned, "I would expect we'd see a price hike depending on the scale of the damage, and secondly, it reinforces the challenges we have in terms of sovereign and resilient capabilities here."

There was no indication from Viva Energy of the specific damage or a repair timeline.

Australia's decision to prioritize "green" policies while allowing its fossil-fuel complex and refining capacity to deteriorate looks absolutely reckless and now nation-killing.

Let's not forget there has been a wave of high-value energy assets damaged in conflicts across Eurasia or mysterious industrial accidents elsewhere. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 08:20

Trump's Blockade Is Breaking Iran... And European Elites Are Angry

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

In March I published an article titled “Global Energy Crisis Or Iranian Surrender In Five Weeks?” in which I outlined the “worst case” and “best case” scenarios for the war in Iran. In my best case scenario I argued in favor of a specific plan to end the conflict quickly: A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, flipping the tables on Iran by blocking or seizing any oil tankers or gas tankers which exit Iranian ports.

Two weeks later, the Trump Administration has implemented this exact strategy.

The effectiveness of the blockade is already apparent; the propaganda bots on social media are scrambling to find a narrative to counter it, but they are failing. Why? Because Iran already tried to lock down the strait (which is an international waterway), and any government cheering (or secretly cheering) for Iran’s actions is now unable to make a rational argument against the US doing the same thing to Iran. As I noted in March:

“We constantly hear about international exposure to the Hormuz shutdown, but the media rarely mentions that Iran is the MOST exposed economy of all. For now, Iranian oil ships continue to pass through the strait and these vessels are Iran’s economic lifeline. Strategic estimates suggest that without the steady passage of these oil tankers, the Iranian economy would completely collapse within five weeks…”

I then summarized what I believed was the simplest solution to end the war:

“Iranian cargo ships can be targeted for seizure by a US blockade of the Persian Gulf well away from the narrow waters of the Hormuz. The ships could be destroyed, but I suspect the Department of Defense will try to avoid oil spills and ecological disasters. Instead, the best option is to capture Iran’s tankers and then redirect the oil to countries in danger of shortages.

Iran has the option of shutting off GPS tracking for their vessels (shadow fleet), but this would not help them maneuver past a comprehensive US blockade. In other words, I argue that the US could turn the tables on Iran and use their reliance on the Hormuz against them.

With Iran’s economy in shambles, they will no longer be able to purchase missiles or drones for resupply from Russia and China. They won’t be able to pay for logistic resources for their military and they won’t be able to contain public unrest. The Iranians would be forced to negotiate and the war would be over quickly with minimal risk to US troops.”

For now, the US is not seizing Iran’s tankers and is merely sending them back to where they came from. However, it would seem that the Trump Administration and their military advisers have come to the same basic conclusions I did.

For years I have expressed my concerns about a potential conflict in Iran, largely because of the precarious global economic risks associated with mass energy shortages caused by a closure of the Hormuz, which transits around 25% of the world’s energy exports. That said, I do not care about “picking sides” when it comes to Israel or Iran.

This debate is irrelevant and designed, I think, to divide US conservatives over ancient tribal vendettas that do not involve us. I don’t care about the Israeli government or “Zionism” and I certainly don’t care what happens to the theocratic and tyrannical Muslim regime in Iran. We have much more important things to think about.

What matters to me is how the US and the American people are affected by geopolitical events. There has been endless debate on what the war is really about, whether it be Iranian nukes, Israeli schemes, Saudi schemes, control of global oil markets, etc. (I think every action the Trump Administration has take so far from Venezuela to Iran has largely been designed to contain China). In any case, a long term closure of the Hormuz will eventually result in market cascades and a stagflationary crisis.

What matters now is ending the war as quickly and decisively as possible without leaving the Homuz and 25% of global energy exports under Iran’s control. After that, people can wrestle over the “moral and constitutional” quandary to their heart’s content.

First, I think it’s vitally important to address some lies and disinformation being spread by propagandists and foreign agents online about the US blockade, so let’s quickly go down the list…

Lie #1: The US Is Blocking All Ships Traveling Through The Strait

This is false. The US is only blocking ships coming from Iranian ports. All other ships have been allowed to pass without incident. This lie is being spread by disinfo agents all over social media and it is also being spread by foreign governments from the UK to France to China. This, to me, says A LOT about the true agenda of these countries, given that they said little or nothing about Iran locking down the strait.

Lie #2: Chinese Vessels Have Broken The Blockade And The US Is Afraid

Nope. All Chinese vessels coming from Iranian ports have been turned away and any vessels coming from alternative ports have been allowed to pass. At the time this article is being published, only one ship from an Iranian port has allegedly slipped through the blockade, though the story on this ship might be fabricated. All other Iranian ships have been repelled.

Lie #3: The Blockade Puts US Naval Ships At Serious Risk

No, it does the opposite. US ships have no need to traverse the narrow Hormuz to blockade it. All they have to do is wait outside of it and turn back Iranian tankers that approach. No mines, no missiles, no drones, no tiny attack boats, nothing Iran has the ability to deploy has much of a chance of harming the US Navy. In fact, reports indicate ships like the USS Abraham Lincoln (an aircraft carrier) have already been targeted hundreds of times by Iran with no damage taken.

There is nothing Iran can do about a comprehensive blockade.

Lie #4: Iran Is Used To Sanctions And Can Hold Out Longer Than The US

No, they can’t. Only 7% of energy exports going to the US travel through the Hormuz. Iran’s entire economy hangs by a thin thread and that thread is oil exports to countries like China or Vietnam.

Iran is reportedly losing around $430 million each day that their ships remain stuck in the strait, and they have already taken around $270 billion in infrastructure damages. Iran pays for new weapons and military logistics with oil revenues. Their soldiers are paid in part with oil revenues. They mitigate civil unrest with oil revenues.

I suspect that the blockade will force Iran back into negotiations within a couple weeks. That’s how little time they have left.

Lie #5: Iran Has Alternative Ways To Bypass The Blockade

No, they don’t. Overland routes without ample pipelines are no substitute for the ease of oil tanker shipments. Even if they did have such pipelines, those lines could be easily destroyed.

By extension, as Iran’s oil exports stack up they will quickly run out of storage space, which means they will have to shut down drilling. This would cause significant damage to their oil infrastructure within weeks due to pressure differentials.

Recent news indicates that Iran has already halted all petrochemical exports until further notice. If true, this proves that the blockade is highly effective.

Lie #6: The Chinese Will Intervene And Force The Strait To Reopen

As noted, the strait is not closed. Only Iranian ports are closed. Furthermore, China has stayed away from direct intervention in the Hormuz because they simply don’t have the naval capacity to square off with the US even if they wanted to.

Keep in mind, only a week ago the Chinese government vetoed a UN resolution to reopen the strait when they thought Iran was going to control it. The CCP is impotent and they can do nothing.

Lie #7: The US Is Losing All Its Allies Over The Blockade

Wrong. What the blockade (and the war in general) is doing is exposing the countries which were pretending to be our allies when it was convenient. I examined this problem in my last article “The US Separation From Europe And NATO Is Long Overdue”, and this brings me to my final point on the war.

The fact that the European elites are suddenly so concerned with the US blockade, enough to call for a “coalition” to reopen the strait and “circumvent” the US, tells us all we need to know. I continue to believe that the globalists in these nations have been feeding off the US while at the same time organizing a “multicultural alliance” behind the scenes – A socialist new world order to supplant western civilization and leave the US behind as a husk.

Part of this agenda clearly involves a partnership with Islamic fundamentalists as a goon squad to oppress native western populations. This is why the elites have flooded Europe with third world migrants – Ignoring the concerns of citizens and even arresting people who speak out.

This is also why the Pope is so adamant to call for a Muslim/Christian pact (while he blatantly ignores the fact that Europeans have been terrorized by Muslim immigrants for over a decade). Let’s not forget that during the pandemic lockdowns, the Vatican joined with the globalists to form the Council for Inclusive Capitalism (run by Lynn Forester de Rothschild). Modern-era Popes are not friends to conservatives or Christians, but I plan to go into that problem in my next article.

The blockade, I believe, is so effective that it has struck fear in Iran, fear in China, and fear in the liberal order in Europe which was counting on the war to drag on for months or years. Look at how angry they all are that Trump flipped the script on the Hormuz? Why all the emotion and irrational hand wringing after the strait has been opened to MORE ships and oil traffic? Why all the panic when oil prices are falling? It doesn’t make sense unless they WANT the US to fail.

Regardless of how you might feel personally about the Iran war, it is undeniable that the situation has revealed many of our supposed allies as enemies. In reality, they were always enemies. The only thing that has changed is that the truth is finally out in the open.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 07:25

Goldman Sachs To Use Options Strategy For Planned Bitcoin Income ETF

Authored by Nate Kostar via CoinTelegraph.com,

Goldman Sachs has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded fund designed to generate income while limiting exposure to the cryptocurrency’s volatility, according to a preliminary prospectus dated April 14.

The proposed Goldman Sachs Bitcoin Premium Income ETF would aim to deliver current income alongside capital appreciation by investing primarily in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) and related options, rather than holding Bitcoin directly.

The fund would generate yield by selling call options on Bitcoin-linked ETPs, a strategy that can produce premium income but may cap upside in rising markets.

According to the filing, the actively managed fund would maintain at least 80% exposure to Bitcoin-linked assets and could allocate as much as 25% of its holdings through a Cayman Islands subsidiary, a structure commonly used to gain commodities exposure under the US Investment Company Act.

The fund expects to vary its options “overwrite” strategy — that is, selling call options against its holdings — between roughly 40% and 100% of its Bitcoin exposure depending on market conditions, and may distribute a significant portion of returns as income or return of capital.

It would gain exposure through a mix of spot Bitcoin ETPs and derivatives, combining direct holdings with options-based positions. The strategy may perform better in flat or moderately rising markets but could underperform during strong rallies as upside is capped.

Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst at Bloomberg, described the product as “Boomer Candy” in a post on X, suggesting the structure may appeal to investors seeking income and lower volatility over full upside exposure.

Source: Eric Balchunas

Separately, Goldman Chair and CEO David Solomon told analysts on Monday that the company last week closed on its acquisition of Innovator Capital Management, an issuer of defined outcome exchange-traded funds. The addition of Innovator’s 170 ETFs puts Goldman in the top 10 of global active ETF providers, Solomon said on the first-quarter earnings call.

Active crypto ETFs gain traction as strategies evolve beyond price tracking

The filing from Goldman Sachs comes as asset managers move beyond basic price-tracking crypto funds, with more complex and actively managed strategies gaining traction across the ETF market.

In January, Bitwise Asset Management launched an actively managed ETF designed to hedge against currency debasement.

The fund allocates across assets including Bitcoin, precious metals and mining equities, reflecting a broader push to integrate digital assets into diversified, macro-focused portfolios.

In March, T. Rowe Price amended its filing with the SEC for a proposed actively managed crypto ETF that would invest directly in digital assets.

The updated prospectus outlines a portfolio that may include assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.

Fund issuer 21Shares is also expanding into more sophisticated strategies. In February, the company launched a Europe-listed ETP tied to Strategy’s preferred stock (STRC), offering exposure to a yield-generating instrument linked to the company’s Bitcoin-focused capital strategy.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, 21Shares President Duncan Moir said the shift reflects broader demand for more advanced products, noting that crypto is “particularly well-suited to active management.”

“Why Active ETFs Are Gaining Momentum as Investors Seek New Solutions.” Source: Goldmansachs.com

According to a March report compiled by Morningstar and Goldman Sachs Asset Management, active ETFs held nearly $1.8 trillion in assets globally at the end of 2025, with flows significantly outpacing passive products.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 07:20

New Hungarian Prime Minister Says Borders Will Remain Shut To Immigrants

In the wake of Viktor Orbán's election defeat, one of the greatest fears among conservatives in the region is an unconstrained EU able to take action on foreign policy, health, and immigration without the threat of a veto.  It is widely assumed that the incoming prime minister of Hungary, Péter Magyar, will seek a fast resolution of Brussels’ key issues with Hungary in order to unlock some €35 billion in funding. 

His election win was heralded as a substantial victory for the global left wing, from EU globalists to Democrats in the US.  Their assumption is that with Orbán's veto power out of play, they will be able to do they want in Ukraine and in Hungary.  However, the new Prime Minster may not be as cooperative as they initially believed.  

Magyar has stated that he will not try to block a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine which Orbán originally vetoed, but he also stated that Hungary will not be contributing to such loans and that the government will not support any attempt to induct Ukraine into the EU.  He also announced this week that he will not allow Hungary to join in the EU's "Migration Pact" and that he plans to further strengthen Hungary's borders. 

This includes a continued rejection of the EU's asylum rules, which are widely abused by third world migrants to freely enter Europe and gain access to welfare subsidies.      

Beyond the Ukraine funding veto, it was Orbán's refusal to submit to open borders and mass immigration that caused constant conflict with the EU.  He was frequently referred to by the political left as a "dictator" and a "fascist" in part because of his strict border policies (even though he is voluntarily leaving office after losing the election, which is not the behavior of a dictator).    

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, attacked Orbán regularly for his border controls, stating that Hungary's program to reinforce their borders with walls and barbed wire was in violation of EU immigration standards.  

It appears that this will not stop under Magyar.

🇭🇺 HUGE! Magyar Péter REJECTS the EU Migration Pact:

"Hungary will not accept any pact. In fact, I'm going to reinforce the border fence even more."

Ursula's European Union cheered for nothing! pic.twitter.com/qndVbTRkIf

— Based Hungary 🇭🇺 (@HungaryBased) April 15, 2026

The purpose of the EU Commission is to subjugate member countries through centralized monetary dependency and a series of financial sanctions if they step out of line.  Financial leverage has been used on a number of occasions by the Commission to force nations to accept ever expanding mass immigration, largely from Muslim fundamentalist populations in countries like Algeria, Morocco, Syria and Afghanistan.  Hungary is one of the few European nations to resist this multicultural agenda.

Without any further comment.🇭🇺🤝🇺🇸

From President Donald Trump about Peter Magyar:
"He’s a good man. I think he’s going to do a good job."

— Magyar Péter (Ne féljetek) (@magyarpeterMP) April 15, 2026

While it is a member state, Hungary is not currently in the eurozone, using its own currency, the Hungarian forint, rather than the euro.  

It may be that the EU sees Magyar as an acceptable trade, as long as they get their funding package for Ukraine.  They probably also intend to play the long game, hoping that once Hungary joins the eurozone they can be manipulated over time using monetary leverage.  That said, their intentions have long focused on using Hungary as a fresh sponge to absorb migrants, and this is simply not going to happen according to Magyar's post-election declarations.      

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 06:55

Speculation Explodes Following Disappearance Of 10th Expert With UFO And Nuclear Secrets

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Following the revelation that yet another government contractor with links to nuclear secrets and suspected dark project UAP information has vanished, speculation as to what exactly is going on has massively intensified.

The case of Steven Garcia, a 48-year-old property custodian at the Kansas City National Security Campus in Albuquerque, New Mexico, marks the latest entry in a disturbing sequence of deaths and vanishings among individuals connected to NASA, nuclear weapons components, and sensitive aerospace research.

Los Angeles Magazine contributor Lauren Conlin joined “Jesse Weber Live” to discuss the case, noting its eerie parallels to prior incidents.

Garcia’s disappearance is being framed as the 10th missing person case in the UFO mystery.

The disturbing pattern of deaths continues to baffle.

Garcia was last seen leaving his Albuquerque home on foot on August 28, 2025, carrying only a handgun. He left behind his phone, keys, wallet, and car. Officials have described him as potentially a danger to himself, but no trace has been found in the remote area where he lived.

Conlin emphasized the chilling similarities during the NewsNation segment. “This one is chilling to me because, as you said it echoes Neal McCasland’s disappearance. It was like the same thing in the state of New Mexico,” she stated. McCasland, a retired Air Force major general with deep UFO community ties, vanished from the same region earlier in 2026.

Garcia held top security clearance at the Kansas City National Security Campus (KCNSC), which manufactures over 80 percent of the non-nuclear components for U.S. military nuclear weapons.

“So Stephen Garcia, I mean he had a top security clearance at KCNSC,” Conlin explained. “They manufacture 80% of non-nuclear components that go into building military nuclear weapons and I mean he oversaw tens of millions dollars of assets, equipment some classified.”

She added that Garcia’s role involved handling “some classified, some not,” leaving open questions about his knowledge base. “We don’t know what was going on in this guy’s head right, the officials had said that he may have been a danger to himself.”

Neighbors noted he lived in a very remote area and worked in aerospace research. Conlin even raised a provocative possibility on air: “I have to wonder, again I know this sounds crazy but it could be an option here is the government doing this? Are they taking out their own people because of XYZ.”

The timing adds to the intrigue. Garcia’s disappearance occurred amid heightened congressional scrutiny of UAP (unidentified anomalous phenomena) videos and related programs, including a deadline set by Rep. Anna Luna for the release of specific footage.

Multiple individuals on the list of those who have vanished or died worked at or with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Los Alamos National Laboratory, or Air Force Research Laboratory projects involving asteroid defense, rocket engines, and classified aerospace systems.

No official connections have been publicly confirmed by law enforcement between the cases, yet the geographic clustering in New Mexico and California, combined with shared professional networks in nuclear and space tech, continues to fuel speculation.

Online discussions on X and Reddit’s r/UFOs and related communities have exploded with theories attempting to explain the pattern. Many users point to foreign intelligence operations, suggesting adversaries like China or Russia may be targeting U.S. experts to steal or neutralize knowledge of advanced technologies, including those potentially linked to UAP reverse-engineering programs. Ex-FBI officials have been cited in reports noting that foreign services have long pursued Americans with critical tech secrets.

Others speculate a domestic cover-up angle: that insiders with knowledge of classified UAP programs or non-human technology are being silenced to delay or control disclosure efforts, especially as Congress pushes for more transparency on UAP videos and related footage. Some tie the cases to specific projects like advanced alloys (e.g., Mondaloy) or propulsion systems funded through overlapping NASA, DoE, and Air Force channels.

A smaller but vocal group questions whether personal factors—extreme stress from high-clearance work or mental health crises—could explain the cluster, though critics argue the sheer number and similarities make coincidence unlikely.

Calls for an independent task force or deeper FBI probe appear frequently in threads, with users linking the pattern to historical UFO lore around sites like Roswell and Wright-Patterson Air Force Base.

Whatever the explanation, the cases underscore ongoing questions about transparency in America’s most sensitive scientific and defense programs. As more details emerge on Garcia and the others, the public demand for answers only intensifies. The full picture may yet reveal connections that challenge assumptions about how these secrets are guarded—and at what cost.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 06:30

Zelensky Goes Full "Lord Of War" As Ukraine Pitches Battle-Tested War Robots To Highest Bidder

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took the stage and stated that Ukraine's military-industrial base has created some of the world's most advanced unmanned platforms, already deployed against Russia and forever changing how warfare is conducted.

"For the first time in the history of this war, an enemy position was taken exclusively by unmanned platforms, ground systems, and drones," Zelensky said in a post on X.

The future is already on the front line – and Ukraine is building it. These are our ground robotic systems. For the first time in the history of this war, an enemy position was taken exclusively by unmanned platforms – ground systems and drones. The occupiers surrendered, and the… pic.twitter.com/qLQKfxPdiB

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 13, 2026

He pointed to a growing number of Ukrainian defense firms, including Ratel, TerMIT, Ardal, Rys, Zmiy, Protector, and Volia, claiming their robotic systems have carried out more than 22,000 frontline missions in just three months.

Zelensky's broader message seemed more like a PR pitch for Ukraine's defense firms, which are capable of producing millions of FPV drones annually, as well as deep-strike systems, interceptors, ground robots, and maritime drone boats.

‼️ ZELENSKYY: For the first time in the war, an enemy position was captured entirely by ground robotic systems and drones - without any infantry. A robot entered the most dangerous zones instead of a soldier and took the positions.

«The future is here, on the battlefield, and… pic.twitter.com/maqECUunEj

— Kateryna Lisunova (@KaterynaLis) April 13, 2026

"Ukraine's robots were sculpted by combat. I've seen the video footage of their UGVs taking hostages. This is what future battles will look like," Foundation Robotics co-founder Mike LeBlanc said in a statement.

LeBlanc's team is preparing its Phantom humanoid robots for testing and continues to develop militarized humanoid prototypes designed to operate alongside warfighters in high-risk environments.

In February, Foundation sent two Phantom MK1 robots to Ukraine for testing, according to a TIME Magazine article.

Ukraine's capital markets have been frozen by war, leaving many of the country's battlefield-proven "war unicorns" starved of traditional funding. However, the Middle East conflict has accelerated a new export pathway, as drone warfare and AI-enabled kill chains reshape how militaries think about defense.

Reuters has reported that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are exploring Ukrainian interceptor drones as a more affordable response to the emergence of Iranian one-way attack drones. At the same time, Ukrainian firms or their European subsidiaries are eyeing U.S. civilian and defense markets to sell their combat-tested systems. The first plausible path into the U.S. market appears to be through affordable counter-drone solutions and other layered air-defense technology.

Meanwhile, so-called "experts" cited by The Moscow Times called Zelensky's X posts "mainly a PR move," but highlighted how robots "are already transforming both tactics and strategy" in the four-year war. 

Zelensky is correct: "The future is already on the front line.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 05:45

UK Voters Call For Lower Taxes & Energy Bills As Economic Concerns Grow

Via CityAM,

• According to a new poll, most British voters want lower energy costs and tax cuts to support growth.

• A large majority rated the UK economy as poor and showed little faith in current progress.

• Business leaders are also increasingly pessimistic, citing geopolitics and rising costs.

British voters want Rachel Reeves to cut taxes and reduce energy costs in order to focus on growth, as a majority of people felt the UK economy was “poor”, new research has shown.

Polling by Freshwater Strategy for the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), a free market think tank, suggested that the vast majority of Brits wanted the Labour government to focus on economic growth more than it currently does. 

The findings back up the Labour government’s primary mission, which is to grow the UK economy. 

But respondents in a survey and focus groups suggested that voters supported small-state policies to deliver improved growth, as much of the public was confused about the measurements used by the government to track achievements. 

Polling found that 77 percent believed energy costs should be reduced, while 72 percent backed lower taxes for workers. A slightly lower portion, 66 per cent, backed tax cuts for businesses. 

When faced with a direct choice, Britons backed economic growth even if it led to some environmental damage, while most also wanted energy to be cheaper, even if it meant slower progress to net zero. 

Taxes and energy costs top Brits’ priorities

Respondents to the survey of 3,000 voters were also more likely to say that GDP growth benefited the government more than individuals. 

In a damning indictment, nearly two-thirds of people (65 per cent) rated the UK economy as “poor” but overestimated the average wealth of Brits compared to Germans, Australians, and Americans. 

Kristian Niemietz, editorial director of the IEA, said the lack of progress made in the last 18 years “should be the number one public policy issue of our time”. 

“While political discourse in Britain may not always reflect it, Britain is clearly not a country that is comfortable with economic stagnation and relative decline,” Niemietz said.

“We still have the social expectations associated with a growing economy. What we do not have is the economic performance to match those expectations.”

Middle East war rattles finance chiefs

Low sentiment across the public reflects wider pessimism among business leaders, with one survey of 79 chief financial officers suggesting that confidence had fallen to a six-year low. 

Deloitte’s finance chief survey suggested that the war in the Middle East had weakened top business leaders’ hopes of an economic recovery, as geopolitics was cited as the top risk. 

Levels of concern around geopolitics were at a record high, according to the survey, while rising energy prices and the prospect of higher interest rates were also among the top risks. 

Deloitte UK chief economist Ian Stewart said: “Rarely in the last 16 years have UK chief financial officers been more focused on cost control than today. 

“This challenging environment is prompting chief financial officers to scale back expectations for margins and sharpen their focus on cost reduction and cash conservation. 

“The immediate priority for finance leaders is to strengthen balance sheets in the face of external headwinds.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 05:00

Iran Boasts It Is Fast Rebuilding Bridges & Rail Lines After US Wrought Destruction

Iran is seeking to put out images showing its resiliency after the country was hit with tens of thousands of airstrikes during over a month of the US-Israel Operation Epic Fury, including blowing up bridges, rail lines and other infrastructure.

The US and Israel struck bridges and rail lines to cripple Iran's national transport network. Israel especially adopted attacks against key civilian infrastructure as a battle tactic, in hopes that eventually there would be a groundswell of anti-Tehran anger domestically, leading to government overthrow.

The bridge that was bombed by Israel and the US in Iran a few days ago, will be operational soon.

Iranian engineers are hard at work. pic.twitter.com/BJYicGKZud

— Sentletse 🇿🇦🇷🇺🇵🇸🇱🇧 (@Sentletse) April 15, 2026

However, Tehran officials and state publications have been boasting of restoring key rail links within days, showcasing the drive of its engineers and its reconstruction capacity.

This actually began happening even while the bombs were still falling while the ceasefire was in effect, with reports that even underground missile silos were being dug out and restored after some 12 hours of being attacked.

President Trump himself repeatedly threatening to bomb bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure to send Iran "back to the Stone Age."

While vital infrastructure and even energy sites have indeed in many cases been obliterated, the lights are still on across the country, save for the persisting government-imposed internet blackout.

Since the fragile ceasefire took effect on April 8, Iranian officials say multiple damaged rail lines and bridges have been restored in record time - sometimes within 40 to 96 hours - using domestic engineering teams. These efforts have showcased by pro-Iran and even sometimes official diplomatic accounts on X.

An incredible railway bridge reconstruction in #Iran after a U.S.-Israel attack.
Speed, precision, and dedicated teamwork: Charbagh railway bridge back in service in just #72 hours🚂. pic.twitter.com/UJl4cL9ENe

— Embassy of Iran in Bulgaria (@IRANinBULGARIA) April 11, 2026

But the war has not yet been fully declared over, after one failed round of peace talks in Pakistan, and as the US still maintains a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.

In many ways the current tense calm is a game of chicken, with each side seeing how much economic pain it can both impose and endure, before the other side blinks and backs down.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 04:15

Continuing Slump In Global Media Climate Agitprop Bodes Ill For Future Net Zero Support

Authored by Chris Morrison via THE DAILY SCEPTIC,

Decades of careful grooming of incurious journalists designed to whip up a non-existent climate emergency have failed to halt a dramatic continuing collapse in mainstream media stories backing the Net Zero fantasy. Last year saw a 14% global slump in climate-related stories compared to 2024, which was already 38% down on peak Greta hysteria in 2021. Perhaps there is only so long that once trusting consumers are prepared to read, let alone pay for identical, narrative-driven drivel that is often so one-sided that it is an insult to the intelligence. Exhibit 1: the BBC’s October 2023 classic – Climate change could make beer taste worse. 

The greatest declines over 2025 were found in Africa, the Middle East and North America. Interestingly, the failed Amazon COP30 meeting in November 2025 was followed the month after by coverage falling off a cliff in Latin America (-61%), Oceania (-52%) and the European Union (-41%). A period of private grief seems to have given  the long-suffering public a merciful break from the relentless cacophony of climate catastrophising. 

News of the continuing falls in climate change and global warming coverage are contained in the latest annual report from the Media and Climate Change Observatory (MeCCO) at the University of Colorado Boulder. To produce its latest findings, MeCCO tracked the volume of newspaper, wire services, radio and TV climate stories across 59 countries and seven regions. The work is said to have used a consistent methodology since 2004.The graph below shows clearly the spikes in the Greta hysteria around the start of the current decade, and the earlier Gore grift that followed the release of his ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ film.

University journalism courses often run climate modules but prospects for aspiring students looking to make the world safe for Net Zero fanatics do not look good. The Guardian can only do so much, but in the UK, coverage was 34% down in the 12 months to November 2025. In the USA, the sackings have started with a vengeance. Last year, new managers at CBS News removed most of the climate crisis team. Recent reports suggest that everyone on the climate beat has now been binned. In February 2026, the Washington Post cut 14 climate writing positions, leaving only five journalists in place.

Last year was a bad time for the climate groomers that are largely funded by Green Blob billionaires seeking societal upheaval by depriving modern (and developing) industrial countries of vital hydrocarbons. Groomed journalists working in narrative-driven mainstream media are seen as key to driving up fear of the invented climate crisis. One of the first lessons taught to useful idiot fear mongers is that the opinion, often incorrectly referred to as a theory, that human cause most if not all recent  climate change, is ‘settled’. The incurious are not encouraged to ask if this is the first scientific opinion to be declared settled, or at least the first since the Roman Popes of old adjudicated ex cathedra on these matters.

In the UK, the National Council for the Training of Journalists (NCTJ) is a respected industry-based charity that has operated since the 1950s. But its climate change training is laughable. In what other investigative fields are journalists encouraged to rely on a claimed ‘consensus’, and encouraged not to disclose alternative views? What quicker way is there, it might be asked, to replacing the writer with an AI tool? Funded by the Google News Initiative (GNI), the NCTJ offers a free e-learning course on climate change reporting. As with all climate science grooming agitprop sessions, there is a warning about avoiding ‘false balance’. In effect, this means denying publicity to sceptical scientists who investigate opinion by following the time-honoured process of scientific falsification.

GNI is a major funder of the attempts made to silence dissenting climate opinions. One of the major weapons deployed involve so-called ‘fact-checkers’ which, in the Daily Sceptic’s own experience, do little more than attack inconvenient science findings with opinionated claims of ‘misinformation’. Discussing the underlying science does not appear to be a priority, rather the negative verdicts are helpful in cancelling advertising, and diminishing impact in the social media sphere.

In the UK, GNI is a funder of the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism. Until recently, this operation ran a six-month groomer for climate writers under its Oxford Climate Journalism Network (OCJN) operation. The course has also attracted considerable funding from the former Extinction Rebellion paymaster Sir Christopher Hohn, and over four years it hosted around 800 journalists from 80 countries. Alas, the indoctrination pitstop pulled down the shutters late last year. The “flagship online course” will no longer be setting tasks asking participants to write a news story showing why mangoes are less tasty this year due to climate change. We can only pray that similar restrictions now apply to other climate-challenged comestibles.

It seems the world is getting tired of clickbait, centrally-determined climate claptrap that for too long has provided an unscientific base for the Net Zero fantasy. Pseudoscience gaslighting has allowed rigged computer models to predict headline-grabbing Armageddon ‘tipping points’, and contributed to the mainstream spread of unchallenged lies that extreme weather events are getting worse. Good news stories such as the major ‘greening’ of the Earth are ignored, while the vital role played in this by the gas of life carbon dioxide is downplayed. None more so than SciLine, a Green Blob-funded operation connected to the Association for the Advancement of Science, publisher of Science.

“In many cases, CO2 disproportionately favours weeds over crops causing more problems for agriculture”, it helpfully notes in its guide to journalists.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 03:30

Iran Halts All Petrochem Exports While Official Signals Compromise Strait Passage Opening, As Negotiators Cite 'Progress' Summary

• The Iran war is "very close to over" with authorities in Tehran eager to agree a peace deal, Trump says, adding: "We've beaten them militarily." Axios cites 'progress' toward framework to end war. Iran state media says halt to all petrochemical exports, RTRS cites possible compromise on strait passage.

• AP/Bloomberg reporting the two sides have an "in principle agreement" to pursue further diplomacy; however, this is batted down as 'unconfirmed' by Tehran & a US official.

• The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in coming days: WaPo

• Trump claims China "very happy" the US is permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz, also Xi told him Beijing was not sending weapons/defense items to Tehran.

• Significant Lebanon fighting continues: Israel issues more evacuation orders, moving into south; Tehran outraged, threatens Red Sea shipping. Unconfirmed reports of one-week Lebanon ceasefire about to take effect.

//--> //--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Yes 33% · No 68%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Big Iran Overture in the Works?

A status quo compromise emerging? The latest to hit the newswires:

IRAN COULD CONSIDER SHIPS BEING ABLE TO SAIL THROUGH OMAN SIDE OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITHOUT INTERFERENCE OR ATTACK AS PART OF A DEAL WITH THE US: REUTERS, CITING SOURCE CLOSE TO TEHRAN

IRAN WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER ITS WATERS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND OMAN WILL DECIDE ABOUT ITS OWN SIDE OF THE WATERWAY - SOURCE CLOSE TO TEHRAN

Iran has just signaled willingness to allow strait traffic pass unconditionally on the Oman side of the strait, perhaps as a face-saving measure, amid talk of a 2nd Pakistan peace summit being put together, as a potential uneasy status quo emerges.

Iran Halts Petrochemical Exports

Is Trump's blockade working?

IRAN HALTS PETROCHEMICAL EXPORTS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE: ISNA

CNBC also in a breaking headline writes:  Iran halts all petrochemical exports ‘until further notice,’ Iranian state media reports. This comes after a new Pentagon warning to all vessels stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.

CENTCOM Updates Tanker Numbers amid Blockade

CENTCOM provides a Wednesday update: "During the first 48 hours of the U.S. blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, no vessels have made it past U.S. forces. Additionally, 9 vessels have complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around and return toward an Iranian port or coastal area."

TEN VESSELS HAVE BEEN TURNED AROUND BY US BLOCKADE: CENTCOM

A big question remains: will Iran confront the US blockade militarily?... or will an uneasy status quo of limited vessel traffic continue to make it through Hormuz amid a potentially extended ceasefire that goes beyond the 2-week window?

A new warning from the White House/CENTCOM:

The White House and the U.S. military published a clip of a warning to ships, telling them not to breach the blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas. In a maritime radio message, a U.S. servicemember tells ships that they will be boarded for interdiction and seizure if they attempt to travel to or from an Iranian port.

U.S. naval vessels are on patrol in the Gulf of Oman as CENTCOM continues to execute a U.S. blockade on ships entering and departing Iranian ports. U.S. forces are present, vigilant, and ready to ensure compliance. pic.twitter.com/dnHR2oz0ZN

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 15, 2026

Meanwhile in Tehran...

Footage of Iran's Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi welcoming Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir upon his arrival in Tehran.

Follow Press TV on Telegram: https://t.co/LWoNSpkc2J pic.twitter.com/32pF6ONkiZ

— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) April 15, 2026 'Progress' Reported in US-Iran Contacts

Axios reports that US and Iranian negotiators "made progress in talks on Tuesday" while moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war, according to two US officials. The headline briefly pushed oil lower. This comes as Pakistan's top general headed a high-ranking political-security delegation from Pakistan to convey the US message and plan the second round of talks to Tehran. Per details in Axios:

• "They were on the phone and backchanneling with all the countries and they are getting closer," the U.S. official said.
• A second U.S. official confirmed progress was made Tuesday.
• "We want to make a deal. And parts of their government want to make a deal. Now the trick is to get the whole of government over there to make the deal," a third U.S. official said.

Meanwhile, state Tasnim is reporting that Pakistan is getting ready to host the second round of Iran-US talks.

Lebanon Ceasefire Imminent? 

The Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen channel, citing a senior Iranian source, reports that a ceasefire in Lebanon will begin tonight. "The duration of the ceasefire will be one week and will extend until the end of the ceasefire period between Iran and the United States."

However, there's been no confirmation of this from Israel or the US, or in Israeli media. The Lebanese government just met with Israeli officials for Rubio-sponsored talks in Washington yesterday, but there was no word of a definitive ceasefire coming from the meeting, and currently Hezbollah and Israel are not directly talking at all. It remains unclear whether this could be a sign of Lebanese officials getting Hezbollah on board with a pause in fighting.

Meanwhile, two fresh notes on the question of advancing a second round of US-Iran negotiations:

• Iranian media reported that Field Marshal Asim Munir, Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Army, headed a high-ranking political-security delegation from Pakistan to convey the US message and plan the second round of talks, and is scheduled to meet with officials of the Islamic Republic.
• Regional mediators are trying to extend the U.S.–Iran cease-fire and restart talks after failed negotiations in Islamabad, but no date or venue has been set. A new round is unlikely before Pakistan completes its regional diplomatic

'Very Close' To War Over, Diplomacy in Reach: Trump

The latest from Trump: The Iran war is "very close to over" with authorities in Tehran eager to agree a peace deal, President Trump claimed in a fresh interview broadcast Wednesday. "We’ve beaten them militarily, totally," Trump told Fox Business in a prerecorded interview. "I think it’s close to over, I view it as very close to over... If I pulled up stakes right now it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country, and we’re not finished." He added: "We’ll see what happens, I think they want to make a deal very badly."

This as the Associated Press has reported the US and Iran are closer to extending a ceasefire and restarting negotiations, even amid the intensifying standoff over the Strait of Hormuz as the US Navy has blockaded it for all shipping leaving Iranian ports or with ties, or under sanction.

The two sides have an "in principle agreement" to pursue further diplomacy after last weekend's failed Islamabad talks. Trump on Tuesday had optimistically cited that the next round could be just two days away. Mediators are said to be pushing for a compromise on outstanding issues including Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program before the April 7 truce expires next week, the news agency said - as they also eye the extension off the initial two weeks.

IRAN'S TASNIM: US-SANCTIONED CONTAINER SHIP GOLBON PASSED THROUGH HORMUZ pic.twitter.com/Wtca8fTZ2b

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 15, 2026

However, Iran's Foreign Ministry has made clear the reports about the ceasefire extension are not confirmed, while Axios' Barak Ravid similarly writes - US official tells me: "The US has not agreed to an extension of the ceasefire. There is continued engagement between the U.S. and Iran to reach a deal."

Iran meanwhile is warning that it sees a prolonging of the US blockade as "a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire," a military spokesman said, as featured state TV. Iran's military "will not permit any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman or the Red Sea" if it continues, the spokesman added. 

IRAN'S BAGHAEI: NO SPECIFIC DAY SET FOR NEW US NEGOTIATIONS

Via AP: A billboard depicting U.S. aircraft caught by Iranian armed forces in a fishing net.   Trump on China

President Trump says he asked his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping not to supply weapons to Iran, and Xi replied he was not doing so. "I had heard that China’s giving weapons to, I mean - you’re seeing it all over the place - to Iran," Trump also said in the aforementioned Fox Business interview.

"And I wrote him a letter asking him not to do that, and he wrote me a letter saying that essentially he’s not doing that." Major media outlets previously reported that US intelligence indicated China was preparing to ship advanced weaponry to Iran. Beijing's public rejection of the "baseless smear" - as the Foreign Minister called it - has indeed been swift and vehement.

With oil prices remaining elevated, with Brent crude trading about 33% higher than before the start of the war, Trump has issued a new Truth Social claiming China is "very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz." This even though in many cases it is China bound tankers being blocked and turned back by the US naval armada. "This situation will never happen again," Trump added. He is set to meet with Xi in Beijing on May 14-15. On this he wrote that "President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are going working together smartly, and very well!" But then Trump says "But remember, we are very good at fighting, if we have to..."

More Troops Sent to Mideast

The Washington Post is out with a new report of more troops being sent to the theatre. "The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, as the Trump administration attempts to pressure Iran into a deal that could end the weeks long conflict there while considering the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if a fragile ceasefire deal does not hold."

Already a combined estimated ten thousand US sailors, Marines, and personnel - on at least a dozen US warships, are maintaining the Trump-ordered blockade on Hormuz. So Washington continues to try and build leverage, also with the announced additional forces being prepped, while also sounding optimistic on a potential peace deal - thought to two sides are very far apart especially on the nuclear issue.

Trump has at times still shrugged off the importance of a final peace deal, having told ABC News that while an official peace agreement may not be necessary, "I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild." He had said, "They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals."

Trump:

I wrote a letter to Xi. I asked him not to give Iran weapons. He wrote me a letter, and he is saying that he is essentially not doing that. pic.twitter.com/yrTT9Dwi2V

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 15, 2026 Tehran (& Houthis) Threaten Red Sea Trade as Lebanon Fighting Persists

Iran's army warned it will block trade through the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Sea of Oman if the US naval blockade on Iranian ports continues. In a statement carried by Iranian state television, the head of the military's central command center said the "powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea."

According to more via Al Jazeera, he added that Iran will "act decisively to defend its national sovereignty and its interests." One key factor which has outraged Iran is Israel's continued major attacks on Lebanon, after last Wednesday's massive aerial attack on Beirut and elsewhere which left over 300 dead. Israel on Wednesday said that Hezbollah fired 40 rockets into Israel earlier in the morning.

An Israeli drone strike on the Jiyeh road, Lebanon

More Geopolitical Headlines

via Newsquawk...

• Effort to extend US-Iran ceasefire has made progress, AP reports citing official; mediators aim to extend the ceasefire for at least another two weeks; both sides gave an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire.
• Discussions are underway regarding possible extension of temporary ceasefire between Iran and US, according to Arab diplomatic sources cited by Russia on Wednesday and being reported by Chinese press CCTV.
• However, US President Trump said it could end either way, but thinks a deal is preferable because then Iran can rebuild, also said he isn't thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn't think it will be necessary, according to reported citing ABC reporter on X.
• The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reports citing US officials; in a bid to pressure Iran while mulling the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.
• US President Trump said it's "very possible" a deal with Iran will be reached by the time the King visits the US later this month (27-29th April), Sky News reported.
• US President Trump said he views the war being very close to over, according to Fox News.
• US VP Vance said we are negotiating with Iran and ceasefire is holding, adds Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal.
• Feel good about where we are.
• Lot of mistrust between the US and Iran, can't be solved overnight.
• US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead a potential second round of talks with Iranian officials should negotiations lead to another face-to-face meeting before the ceasefire expires next week, according to sources familiar cited by CNN.
• Pakistan leadership’s overseas tour until April 18th dims prospects of US-Iran talks in Islamabad before April 18th, Pakistani journalist Mallick reported.
• Iran is to use alternative ports to those in southern Iran to bypass the US blockade in the Strait, Mehr News reported.
• An Iranian VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier), which was on the US sanctions list, entered the waters of Iran past the US blockade, Fars reported.
• Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the recent war, according to an FT investigation.
• US Central Command said blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented and that US forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.
• US has intercepted eight Iran-linked oil tankers since the start of the blockade, according to WSJ.
• New satellite images show Iran digging for missile launchers trapped underground amid a ceasefire, according to CNN.
• More than 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, WSJ reported, citing US officials.
• US destroyer interdicted two oil tankers that attempted to leave Iran on Tuesday, according to an official cited by Reuters.
• US President Trump reiterates on Truth Social "NATO wasn’t there for us, and they won’t be there for us in the future!".
• Europe is accelerating a NATO fallback plan in case US President Trump pulls US out of the treaty, according to WSJ.
• US Pentagon is likely to trim its Iran wall funding request, according to WSJ citing Senator Coons who is the top democrat on the Senate appropriations defense committee.

* * *

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 03:15

Germany Accelerates Kamikaze Drone Stockpiling With Rheinmetall Deal

Germany's parliament has approved a sizeable contract for defense giant Rheinmetall to supply loitering munitions, or kamikaze drones, to the Bundeswehr, underscoring just how quickly European militaries are internalizing drone warfare lessons from both the Russia-Ukraine war and, more recently, the U.S.-Iran conflict. Berlin's latest procurement push makes it clear that one-way attack drones are becoming a serious threat, and the race to stockpile them has begun.

Bloomberg reports that the budget committee of the Bundestag approved the Defense Ministry's proposal for an initial tranche of Rheinmetall's suicide drones worth $345 million.

The deal is capped at around $1.2 billion for Rheinmetall loitering munitions and depends on the firm meeting development and delivery milestones. The drones are initially intended for Germany's brigade in Lithuania, but there is a possibility that they will be deployed elsewhere.

The approval follows Germany's February decision to purchase $637 million worth of strike drones from startups Helsing and STARK. Rheinmetall missed out on those deals because it lacked a working prototype at the time.

The Defense Ministry confirmed the latest contract without identifying Rheinmetall: "As with the other two contracts, there are clearly defined qualification requirements, termination milestones, and innovation clauses."

Lessons learned from the current conflicts across Eurasia have served as a wake-up call for countries around the world, unleashing a frantic race among the world's militaries to procure low-cost attack drones.

What follows will be counter-drone systems to combat this emerging threat, as the war in the Middle East showed that the US and its Gulf allies lacked low-cost solutions.

On the U.S. homeland front, the Federal Aviation Administration has given the U.S. military the green light to deploy high-energy counter-drone laser weapons in U.S. airspace. Alarmingly, there are very few, if not any, low-cost counter-drone systems guarding America's data centers, transmission substations, stadiums, and other critical infrastructure.

One month before the US-Iran conflict broke out, we informed readers of the urgent need for data centers to consider counter-drone systems. What followed were multiple data centers struck by Iranian drones in the Gulf region. Civilian infrastructure will not be spared as the world becomes increasingly dangerous and chaotic.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 02:45