Zero Rss

Trump-Netanyahu "Differences": A Good Cop-Bad Cop Routine

By Michael Every of Rabobank

As You Were... But As Who Was? 

Yesterday nearly saw a full restart of the Israel-Iran war, apparently pulled back from the brink by intervention from President Trump. After yet another Middle East rollercoaster for markets it’s now ‘as you were’, with oil --so everything else-- little changed. The larger issue behind that pricing, however, is the key question - ‘As who was?’

Iran set up its proxy network, centered on terror group Hezbollah in Lebanon, to protect itself: if Israel attacked it, Hezbollah would attack Israel. However, Tehran now has to attack Israel, with counterattacks on it in response, to defend its ‘shield’. That’s a huge Iranian strategic setback. As such, Tehran is trying to tie Israel vs. Hezbollah to itself vs. the US to divide the US from Israel, which now have different needs: a deal vs. finishing the job militarily or via regime change. That dynamic has huge implications for when and how this war ends, so for energy, so for markets.

While Israel and Iran say they will stop their attacks, Israeli PM Netanyahu last night gave a public address where he stated: “Iran and Hezbollah are weaker than ever, and we are stronger than ever – but our battle against them is still not finished. In the last 24 hours, Iran and Hezbollah tried to impose a new equation upon us… an equation I find intolerable and unacceptable. They thought they would fire at Israel from Lebanese territory and from Iran – and we would not act. That did not happen, and it will not happen. Not on my watch!... At the moment, we are holding our fire, because after we struck the terror regime in Tehran, it ceased attacking us. In the event that Iran makes the mistake of resuming attacks on us – we will respond with overwhelming force.”

Moreover, Israel will hit Hezbollah in Beirut if it fires at Israel from south Lebanon, which Iran says is a red line that will trigger more attacks on the Jewish state, restarting this war.

If Iran tells Hezbollah to ceasefire, markets can relax;

If not, and Israel hits Hezbollah, Iran has to decide if it wants to fire at Israel - and restart the war;

If Trump forces Israel to hold back vs. Hezbollah, Iran will have linked the two fronts and divided the US and Israel – which likely sees more war.

After all, Israel’s 1948 War of Independence, its 1967 Six-Day War, its 1981 attack on Iraq’s nuclear programme, and its 2007 strike against Syria’s nuclear programme all took place against US wishes. To expect otherwise this time is unwise. Indeed, Trump-Netanyahu differences could be a good cop-bad cop routine to allow the US to push for a deal while Israel does the fighting.

In the background, Yemen’s Houthis claim they will restart a maritime blockade of Israel in the Red Sea, which was applied far more broadly the last time they put it in place. Obviously, that can threaten cargo and energy flows at this juncture, as a US Navy F-18 struck and disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman and the EU hit Iran’s Navy… with sanctions.

In short, this crisis is far from over, even as Trump says “total victory” will be declared in the next two weeks as Iranian negotiators are “willing to give us everything,” and VP Vance added that the deal being discussed was “a home run” for the US. Yet the inside baseball question remains which negotiators the US is talking to given local reports that contact has been lost with Supreme Leader Khamenei Jr. and another that IRGV leader Vahidi was killed in a recent Israeli strike.

Elsewhere in geopolitics, Berlin says the Franco-German fighter jet project is dead, a major blow to future pan-European defence plans; Switzerland is weighing a Franco-Italian alternative to US air defences given a 5-year wait for the latter; and a French fighter jet shot down a suspected Russian drone in Latvian airspace.

That’s as Germany claimed it’s ready to take the reins from the US in talks with Putin despite Russia rejecting Ukrainian and European peace initiatives, saying instead that the battlefield will decide the war – but as Moscow pauses its CCTV systems after Israel hacked Iran’s to target its Supreme Leader. Back in the UK, a secret camera was found in the ceiling panel of the room in a sensitive government building where the decision was made to approve the new Chinese embassy.

Showing how lines on the map can move as the driver of lines on the screen, the US is considering buying the Chagos Islands to take control of the strategic UK airbase on Diego Garcia; Mauritius, whom the UK is controversially trying to hand the islands to, is today demanding they get them ASAP to avoid that outcome.

China’s Xi Jinping, on a state visit, pledged “unwavering” support for North Korea, making some things crystal clear, as Bloomberg publishes its estimates for the economic damage from a war over Taiwan: $10 trillion, apparently. Which justifies or incentivizes doing what as insurance?

In LatAm, Peru is set for lengthy vote count as its presidential race is still too close to call, and Colombia will see a presidential runoff ahead following the leftist Cepeda’s first round election loss.

In geoeconomics, the US added Alibaba, BYD and other Chinese tech champions to its military company blacklist. That’s as Anthropic's Mythos can reportedly now exploit new software flaws in mere hours and OpenAI gets ready for its IPO, Trump is mirroring Bernie Sanders in arguing the state should get stakes in AI giants - and presumably not just in military and security areas but across the economic spectrum. To say we are moving the political-economy Overton Window is an understatement: at this stage are there any actual windows left? Indeed, could the walls and the roof fall in on conventional analysis using conventional wisdom?

The European press talks of how ‘China is killing Europe’s chemicals industry. Brussels wants to intervene’ and France’s Macron is reportedly to court China to get them to address trade imbalances – offering and threatening what exactly?

Indonesia is also weighing export rule exemptions for commodity traders to try to calm local markets after the recent de facto state control of that key area of the economy.

At the same time, Trump's $100,000 H-1B visa fee was declared an unlawful “tax” by a US judge, as were his tariffs of course, which will now be appealed (was the lower via fee also a tax? If not, why not?).

As you were then… but as who was? And what will we be soon – besides confused?

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 09:45

Apollo And Blackstone Raise $35 Billion For Anthropic In One Of The Biggest Ever Private Credit SPV Deals

Back in January, when we profiled Meta's landmark $27.3 billion SPV deal named "Beignet" for the Hyperion data center located in Louisiana, in which Blue Owl provided the private credit, we said to "expect hundreds of billions of these in 2026."

As a reminder, META is already neck deep in off-balance sheet debt. Here is a schematic of its $27.3 billion SPV with Blue Owl "Project Beignet" for the Hyperion data center. None of this touches META's balance sheet.

Expect hundreds of billions of these in 2026 https://t.co/794EgSiiZ9 pic.twitter.com/7hMyVW6Lno

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 29, 2026

Fast forward five months when we now read that Apollo and Blackstone have finalized a $35BN private credit deal that will help finance Anthropic’s growth plans, even as traditional "banks are choking" on the amount of AI debt they have to issue. 

The two private credit giants - which in a parallel universe are struggling with soaring redemption requests and gating retail investors in their private credit BDCs as documented here extensively in recent months - led the financing, one of the largest private credit deals completed, which will fund Anthropic’s purchase of Alphabet-developed chips.

The deal, dubbed project “Big Sky”, comes amid concerns that the AI frenzy has overheated the broader market. Shares in chipmakers rebounded on Monday after tumbling last week, led by Broadcom’s fall in market value. It also adds to a deluge of chip-backed loans that sparked debate over how quickly graphics processing units would depreciate as AI technology evolves.

In this type of financing structure, a special-purpose vehicle raises capital through a mix of debt and equity to purchase the chips, which are then leased to a customer, in this case Anthropic. The debt is primarily backed by the resulting lease payments, along with the unknown long-term value of the chips. In this case, the $35 billion debt facility was structured across three tranches. The senior layers — the $6 billion notes dubbed A1 and $24 billion of A2 notes — are backed by Broadcom, allowing the debt to secure lower borrowing costs aligned with Broadcom’s strong credit profile. The notes received private ratings in the mid-investment grade tier.

The transaction wrapped up days after Alphabet completed one of the largest equity offerings in history, as it looks to raise $85bn to fund Google’s AI build-out, and as SpaceX prepares for a flotation that could raise a record $86bn. Anthropic also announced it had confidentially filed for an IPO shortly after its blockbuster $65bn private financing round.

As discussed previously, the AI borrowing spree has reached beyond traditional US capital markets, where AI is expected to raise $400 billion in debt, rising to over $1 trillion through 2028 to meet roughly $1.8 trillion in capex needs over the next two years, according to Morgan Stanley...

... with Amazon raising C$14bn (US$10bn) on Monday in the largest ever Canadian dollar bond sale. 

Similar to Meta's Beignet deal, Anthropic’s deal with Apollo and Blackstone relies on a complex structure that private investment groups routinely use to finance start-ups with backing from blue-chip companies. A special purpose vehicle formed by Apollo’s Atlas SP Partners raised the debt and equity, with lease agreements for the chips ultimately supporting the value of the transaction.

Per the FT, Apollo and Blackstone structured the loan across three tranches, with interest payments on the two senior segments backstopped by Broadcom. The chipmaker is making the so-called tensor processing units, or TPUs, with Google. Its agreement to provide support if Anthropic misses an interest payment helped vastly reduce the costs on the debt.

The two senior portions of the debt were split between banks and investors. Some $6bn of so-called A1 notes were sold to banks with an interest rate 1% over Treasuries. A further $24bn of A2 notes were sold on to investors in asset-backed credit markets, priced with a yield of 5.75 per cent. Buyers of the A2 tranche included institutional investors like Apollo’s Athene insurance arm, which favors high-quality debt to back its long-term liabilities. 

The $4.5bn of junior debt, which is not supported by Broadcom and therefore exposes lenders more acutely to Anthropic, carried an interest rate of 8.5%. Investors were also offered an original issue discount of 98 cents to 99 cents on the dollar depending on cheque sizes. In other words, without the implicit guarantee from an investment grade guarantor - like Broadcom in this case - the cost of capital is roughly double. 

In addition to the debt, Apollo’s Atlas SP Partners’ structured-finance unit provided $800 million in equity, meaning it’s effectively the owner of the SPV.

A key feature of the deal is Broadcom providing a “residual value support” agreement. That means that if Anthropic fails to make the lease payments for a certain period of time, the SPV will sell the chips to pay back the debt investors. If the value of the chips doesn’t make the debt investors whole, then Broadcom will make up the shortfall for 100% of the value owed to the A1 and A2 investors.  

This type of residual value feature has been used in another mega debt deal, though it financed the construction of a data center rather than chips. As noted above, Meta provided a similar protection for the value of its Hyperion facility in Louisiana - a transaction that Morgan Stanley arranged. That allowed the so-called Beignet bonds to trade in line with Meta’s corporate debt.

For those whose head is spinning with the circularity involved, this is how we described the deal last week when it was first floated: 

Broadcom is backstopping a massive $36 billion private credit SPV with Apollo and Blackstone which will help Anthropic buy Google chips... made by Broadcom. Oh, and yes: Google owns 14% of Anthropic...

*BROADCOM: WORK WITH APOLLO, BLACKSTONE SERVES OPENAI, ANTHROPIC

Translation: Broadcom is backstopping a massive $36 billion private credit SPV with Apollo and Blackstone which will help Anthropic buy Google chips... made by Broadcom.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 3, 2026

But wait, there's more... because if that wasn't enough, Morgan Stanley, which advised Broadcom and arranged the transaction, is also lending money to investors participating in the deal!

And just because this is a "chip-backed" off-balance sheet SPV where nobody really knows who holds the debt, the monstrous circularity of all the deal aspects will be ignored until the AI credit bubble cracks. 

As for the punchline: demonstrating the insane frenzy of anything involving AI, investors involved in the deal did not even know what they were investing in! According to the FT, investors pitched on the deal were not given early access to Anthropic’s financials ahead of its IPO.

Not everyone involved in the deal is a total idiot: some investors passed on the deal over the delayed-draw format of the debt, which drives down yields because the money can be withdrawn in multiple tranches over a period of time.

Yet despite the smashing success of the deal, one glaring question remains. Recall, last week SpaceX penned a massive deal with Google (to urgently burnish the IPO candidate's financials just days ahead of its IPO), according to which Google will pay Elon Musk $920 million a month for access to about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs (unlike its hyperscaler peers, SpaceX has plenty of spare compute to rent out). And yet, despite seemingly telegraphing it is dramatically "compute constrained" as the SpaceX deal implies, it still has plenty of chip available that it can sell $35B of their chips to their biggest competitor, Anthropic.

This wasn't the only such deal: just days prior, Anthropic (which will use proceeds from this private credit SPV to purchase Google chips made by Broadcom), agreed to pay $1.5 billion a month for access to 325,000 Nvidia GPU also held by SpaceX. No wonder these sham agreements were structured so they can be terminated by either party after December 2026. 

For those shaking their heads at these glaring examples of circular bubble euphoria, fear not: you will have plenty of opportunities to enjoy more such deals (going back to our point up top): Broadcom chief executive Hock Tan said the company hoped to connect “investor partners with the strongest balance sheets to deliver at scale sufficient compute capacity at the lowest cost”, pointing to the deal with Apollo and Blackstone as the first of many transactions to come.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 09:15

House Report Finds Minnesota Officials Ignored Fraud To Avoid Racism Accusations

A House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform report released Monday paints a devastating picture of both Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and state Attorney General Keith Ellison, finding that they both knew about widespread fraud in state social services programs and failed to act.

The report centers on the Feeding Our Future scandal, in which a Minnesota-based nonprofit systematically exploited federal COVID-19 relief funds intended to provide meals to children.

So far, more than 60 people have already been found guilty of fraud in connection with the scheme, the majority of whom are of Somali descent. Some defendants used stolen taxpayer money to buy luxury goods, while others funneled proceeds to a radical Islamic terrorist group operating in Somalia. At least $300 million in federal child nutrition funds were placed at serious risk, and approximately $9 billion in Medicaid losses resulted from the broader fraud environment state officials allowed to fester.

"Fraud warnings were elevated to the most senior levels of the Minnesota state government, meaningful corrective action was delayed or avoided, and payments continued long after credible signs of fraud emerged," the report states.

Senior officials in Walz's office and Ellison's office knew about systemic fraud concerns as early as 2019 within the Minnesota Department of Human Services and, by April 2020, within the state Department of Education, the report says, directly contradicting Walz's and Ellison's public statements.

This matters because both men held legal authority to cut off payments to fraudulent operators. Neither exercised it, even though Walz was aware of the suspected fraud in Feeding Our Future by 2020, and the payments continued.

The fraudsters didn't just know how to exploit the system for financial gain; they knew how to blackmail state officials to keep their scheme going. When workers inside the Department of Education tried to audit child care and nutrition programs, providers accused them of racism. The accusation worked. Officials backed down despite holding evidence that funds were being fraudulently diverted. Dozens of human services department staff were warned, explicitly, that raising fraud concerns would get them labeled as racists and damage the government's reputation. Some were pulled into supervisory meetings. Others were excluded from the very internal discussions about the fraud they had flagged.

And the directive to look the other way from the fraud came from the top down. One Minnesota Department of Education official who first contacted the FBI about Feeding Our Future told investigators her supervisors pressured her to stop investigating "at every turn" and that she got her "hand slapped" for continuing to look into it. Staff feared reporting fraud to the Homeland Security Office of Inspector General because that agency would notify the Commissioner or HR, who would then retaliate against them. The internal culture the Walz administration built was one in which accountability was the threat, not the fraud.

Rather than combating the fraud, the Walz administration spent resources monitoring employees to keep them in line. The priority, the report shows, was getting ahead of press coverage about the fraud, not stopping it.

"Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison are responsible for one of the most stunning oversight failures this Committee has ever examined," Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer said in a statement. "Today's report is the culmination of months of investigative work and reveals hard evidence showing how the Walz Administration failed to stop widespread fraud, allowing criminals to enrich themselves at the expense of American taxpayers. Billions of dollars were stolen because Minnesota state leaders turned a blind eye to rampant fraud and retaliated against state employees who dared to raise concerns. It is now clear the Walz Administration chose to protect the system rather than protect the taxpayer."

The report makes clear that this fraud wasn't some bureaucratic mistake or a problem that went unnoticed. Senior officials were repeatedly warned about what was happening. They chose not to act in order to preserve their political relationship with Minnesota's Somali community, manage the fallout, and sideline the employees who were raising red flags and trying to stop it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 09:00

Futures Rise As Tech Rebound Extends While Oil Drops

US equity futures are higher as Monday’s US stock gains extend into today’s trading with both tech and small caps outperforming as the AI theme resumes its global surge and US/Iran deal optimism is back (on the back of the now daily optimistic comments from Trump) broadening the rally.  As of 8:00am ET, tech enthusiasm is on display with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.8% as chipmakers including Marvell Technology Inc. and Micron Technology Inc. posted strong premarket gains, while S&P500 futures gain 0.4%. In premarket trading, Mag7 names are mostly higher; cyclicals ex-energy are leading defensives ex-HC. A similar theme played out in APAC, with the tech-laden Kospi soaring 8.2%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is rising alongside weaker energy prices with gains driven by financials and consumer names. Oil dipped after Trump said a framework of deal "within the next 2 days," though it is unclear what has changed from previous claims over the last 2 months. Commodities are reacting to headline risk with Brent down 2.1% as Israel and Iran halt attacks and Chinese oil imports declined, and WTI below $90/bbl. The downside in energy prices has provided a mild support for global fixed income markets, with US yields 1-2bps lower across the curve ahead of the US 3-year note auction. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is down 0.2%. Downside in USD/JPY from a report that the BOJ could hike in June and October proved fleeting. Precious metals are steady. Bitcoin sheds 1.3%. The macro data focus will be on weekly ADP, the NFIB Small Biz Survey where the Hiring sub-index may give add’l evidence for the labor market acceleration. Keep an eye on the 3Y bond auction today

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +0.4%, Amazon +0.6%, Meta +1.1%, Alphabet +0.6%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.3%). 

• Chipmakers, opticals and storage firms rise, on track to extend gains, as the group rebounds in the wake of Friday’s sharp selloff.
• Lithium stocks rise as Citi remains bullish on the metal, seeing a recovery in prices after the recent selloff.
• Applied Digital (APLD) is up 11% after the neocloud company said it signed a 15-year take-or-pay lease with a US-based artificial intelligence hyperscaler, for 210 megawatts of critical IT load at its Delta Forge 2 campus.
• CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO) gains 13% as the manufacturer of water treatment equipment updated its full year outlook after closing Thermon Group Holdings acquisition.
• GDS Holdings ADRS (GDS) rise along with other Chinese cloud providers as people familiar with the matter said that China is preparing to spend around $295 billion over the next five years to build data centers across the country.
• Mission Produce (AVO) falls 2% after the avocado supplier reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Nuvalent (NUVL) is up 39% after GSK agreed to acquire the company for $10.6 billion. The transaction will accelerate GSK’s entry into the lung cancer space and could help offset the looming patent expiry of its HIV drug dolutegravir, Barclays analyst James Gordon wrote in a note.
• Perrigo (PRGO) slips 1% after the company’s CEO Patrick Lockwood-Taylor resigned from both roles and from the board, following a determination that certain personal conduct was inconsistent with the company’s code of conduct and core values.
• SailPoint (SAIL) falls 13% after the software company’s quarterly results and outlook isn’t enough to extend recent strength in the stock, which is up nearly 70% off an April low as of last close.
• Vail Resorts (MTN) is down 4% after the ski resort operator cut its net income guidance for the full year, attributing the reduction to “historically challenging” weather conditions in the western US.

In other corporate news, executives overseeing Oatly’s Chinese operations are said to be considering buying out the business. Apple’s iOS 27 and related software updates offer signs the of the company’s upcoming foldable iPhone. GSK agreed to buy clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company Nuvalent in a deal valued at $10.6 billion to expand in oncology treatments.

After a brief pause in the rally that propelled equities to record highs, traders are returning on expectations that corporate profits will give stocks further room to run. OpenAI’s confidential filing for an initial public offering and the oversubscription of SpaceX’s share sale served as reminders of the vast demand for AI - before attention turns to Wednesday’s CPI print.  Overnight sentiment was also boosted from lower energy costs, with Brent sliding 1.5% to below $93 a barrel. Israel and Iran agreed to end their tit-for-tat attacks, while President Donald Trump renewed his claims that a US peace deal with Tehran was nearly done. 

From SpaceX’s IPO being oversubscribed ahead of books closing late Wednesday, to OpenAI filing confidentially for an IPO and said to be planning a tender sale of its shares to provide liquidity to employees, “there’s a real race for capital that’s going on,” notes CPR Asset Management’s Julien Daire, perhaps to get ahead of the moment of realization that much of this SPV chip-backed rollout is funded by American retirees putting their money in "safe" annuities.

And the biggest investor: unwitting retirees through “safe” annuities purchased from Apollo’s Athene insurance company https://t.co/UhtWzj59ia

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 9, 2026

Meanwhile in China, the country plans to spend around $295 billion to fund a nationwide AI buildout of data centers, signaling its ambition to propel the domestic AI sector and rely on local suppliers for at least 80% of technology such as AI chips. 

And speaking of China, the AI supercycle showed up in macro data overnight as well, with Beijing's export sales of semiconductors soaring 111% year-on-year in May, the fastest expansion since 2013. Elsewhere, the massive PJM power grid region is expected to see a 26-fold increase in energy storage over the next decade on the back of data-center driven load growth and lagging supply strain reliability and affordability. 

There are red flags: bond-yield levels don’t look encouraging for stocks, but it will likely take greater rate volatility to trigger another leg lower, according to Bloomberg Senior Strategist Michael Msika. Risks are mounting into a tricky June, but portfolio rotation seems to be the preferred approach, rather than cutting exposure altogether. The bond market is running ahead of the Fed policy rate, with a clear message for Kevin Warsh that rates need to be higher, and prompted Citi to lower its short-term price target for gold.  

While AI “has driven a strong rally so far, it also carries a high risk of pullbacks, which are bound to occur given the dynamic nature of the sector’s development,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at MPPM.

Warnings that a push higher in stocks could prove choppy still abound. Citigroup Inc. strategists said traders are aggressively building short-selling positions in US equities, while bullish wagers on the tech sector remained stretched. Friday’s near 5% selloff in the Nasdaq 100 has only partially reset exposure among investors, the Citi team led by David Chew noted. 

The next few weeks hold major risk events, with inflation data due Wednesday and the first Federal Reserve interest-rate decision under Chairman Kevin Warsh on June 17. 

“If inflationary risks continue to rise, a more aggressive repricing of the Fed could easily challenge current valuations and derail equity markets,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin.

In politics, the race for California governor is on track for a two-person runoff in November between veteran Democratic politician Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton, a British-born television personality endorsed by President Trump. The Pentagon has accused some of China’s biggest companies of supporting the Chinese military, including Alibaba, Baidu and BYD.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is rising alongside weaker energy prices with gains driven by financials and consumer names.  Health care stocks were dragged lower by GSK, which shed as much as 3.9% after announcing it would acquire US firm Nuvalent for $10.6 billion. The energy subindex was the biggest laggard as Brent crude dropped below $93 a barrel. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Demant advances as much as 5%, to the highest since August 2025, after a BofA double-upgrade to buy removes the only negative analyst rating on the hearing aids manufacturer
• Givaudan rises as much as 5.9%, the most in almost two months and taking the stock to the highest since late February, as Deutsche Bank upgrades the Swiss fragrance and flavor maker to buy and JPMorgan adds a positive catalyst watch
• WPP leads European advertising firms higher after Berenberg said the sector is poised for a rerating because investors have overestimated the threat posed by artificial intelligence. Analysts initiated coverage of WPP, Publicis Groupe and Havas with buy ratings
• Seraphim Space Investment Trust shares rise as much as 26%, their biggest jump in almost three years, after the fund said the fair value of Iceye, its largest holding, had doubled after a funding round
• Breedon Group shares gain as much as 6.6%, the largest intra-day rise in two months, after the building materials supplier announced the $120 million acquisition of a limestone quarry near Missouri
• Fever-Tree shares rise as much 8.2% to the highest in a month after the company said it was on track to meet expectations and extended its buyback program
• El.En. shares climb as much as 6.3% to the highest since November 2021, after Stifel initiated the laser equipment firm with a buy rating, predicting profits to more than double over the next five years
• GSK shares slip as much as 3.9% as Barclays analysts noted the British drugmaker will gain access to two experimental medicines in late-stage trials through its planned purchase of Nuvalent, but that upside is capped
• K+S shares fall as much as 5.6% to their lowest since January as the German agricultural chemicals firm launches an offering of convertible bonds worth around €300 million to finance the previously-announced purchase of Qemetica’s salt business
• Trigano shares drop as much as 7.5%, the most in over nine months, after analysts at Oddo BHF cut their price target on the maker of recreational vehicles and removed it from their list of top picks within the European mid-cap space
• Rusta falls as much as 7.7% after the Swedish discount retailer reported its latest earnings. DNB Carnegie says the print shows a weaker-than-expected end to 2025/2026, with added headwinds from “very tough” comparables

Asian stocks rose, as bargain hunters dipped back in to buy technology stocks after a sharp selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 2.8%, on track to snap a three-day losing streak. The information technology sector led gains among sub-indexes, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics contributing the most to the advance. South Korea and Indonesia led the region’s rebound, just a day after ranking among the worst performers. The rally follows a steep pullback triggered by concerns over overheating in artificial intelligence stocks. While broader concerns about the sector’s momentum remain, the recent drop has made valuations more appealing and steady earnings are helping to support sentiment. Easing tensions in the Middle East added to the positive tone, after Iran and Israel agreed to scale back strikes following a flare-up that had threatened to derail peace efforts and drew calls for de-escalation from President Donald Trump.

In FX, the dollar headed for its biggest two-day retreat in a month. Indonesia’s central bank raised its benchmark rate ahead of its next scheduled meeting to reverse a market selloff and support the rupiah. 

In rates, treasuries rose modestly as traders dialed back bets on US interest-rate hikes, led by short-dated notes as oil continued its decline after Israel and Iran agreed to stop attacks, following a flare-up in violence. US yields are richer by up to 2.5bp across front end of the curve with long end richer by around 1bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1bp and 1.5bp vs. Monday close. US 10-year yields trade around 4.545%, down 1.5bp on the day with bunds lagging by 1.5bp in the sector, gilts slightly outperforming. Bull steepening move comes ahead of this week’s first Treasury auction of $58 billion 3-year notes at 1pm New York. Treasury auction cycle resumes at 1pm New York with $58 billion 3-year notes, before $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. The WI 3-year trading around 4.205% is 24bp cheaper than the May stop-out, which tailed the WI by 0.6bp.

In commodities, Brent has continued to slip, down 2.1% as Israel and Iran halt attacks and Chinese oil imports declined. Bitcoin sheds 1.3%. Precious metals are steady. Gold held steady near $4,340 an ounce. The appeal of the precious metal has steadily faded from a peak above $5,400 in January after the war in the Middle East upended expectations for US monetary policy, shifting bets from rate cuts to possible hikes.

Today's US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am), April trade balance (8:30am), May existing home sales, April wholesale inventories (10am)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• President Trump asked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to pull back from escalating his country’s strikes against Iran during a call on Monday morning, telling the Israeli leader that the United States and Iran were within days of a breakthrough clearing the way for talks on a long-term nuclear deal. NYT
• Trump Says Peace Talks on Track After Israel-Iran Clash Ends: BBG
• USTR Greer said to be heading to Silicon Valley to promote onshoring this week: Semafor 
• China’s exports surged last month on demand for AI-related goods as the world’s second-largest economy shook off the impact of energy shortages from the Middle East. Exports expanded 19.4 per cent in May on a year earlier in dollar terms, exceeding expectations. FT
• A sharp fall in China’s oil imports is keeping global prices in check despite a supply crunch lasting more than 100 days due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. China’s int’l oil purchases fell to the lowest level in more than 8 years in May. Nikkei
• The BoJ will consider maintaining the current pace of bond purchases beyond next fiscal year, sources said, pausing a taper process that would ‌mark a turning point in its quantitative tightening (QT) plan. But the decision could be a close call as the nine-member board is seen as split between those who want to focus on soothing investor nerves and others who see the need to steadily slow purchases to reduce the BOJ's large balance sheet. RTRS
• Japanese policymakers said on Tuesday they stood ready to act decisively against excessive yen falls while remaining vigilant to rising bond yields that could hurt the economy, highlighting ‌the dilemma they faced in countering unfavorable market moves. RTRS
• German industrial production grew for the first time since war broke out in Iran, fueling hope that Europe’s largest economy is weathering the jump in energy costs. Output increased 0.4% in April from the previous month, driven mainly by construction. BBG
• China is preparing to spend around 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) over the next five years on building data centers across the country, fueling Beijing’s ambition to propel the domestic AI sector and surpass the US in a potentially game-changing technology.  BBG
• The $31 trillion Treasury market has an unequivocal message for Kevin Warsh’s Fed: Interest rates aren’t high enough. Yields on two-year notes hovered near their highest level in more than a year. BBG
• An index of US small business optimism fell last month to the lowest level since October 2024, erasing almost all of the gains seen since Trump was elected for a second term. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed, albeit with a mostly positive bias as indices rebounded from yesterday's losses, with sentiment helped by Israel and Iran halting their strikes, while participants also reflected on the better-than-expected Chinese trade data. ASX 200 declined as the prior day's losses caught up with the index on return from a long weekend. Nikkei 225 fluctuated and briefly wiped out all its opening gains before rebounding to print fresh intraday highs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland kept afloat following the stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data, although gains were capped after the US Pentagon posted a list of Chinese military companies, which included Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, Tencent, NIO and Cosco among others.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Balance of Trade (USD)(May) 105.4B vs. Exp. 91.5B (Prev. 84.8B).
• Chinese Exports YY (May) 19.4% vs. Exp. 14.3% (Prev. 14.1%).
• Chinese Imports YY (May) 27.4% vs. Exp. 25% (Prev. 25.3%).
• Taiwan Balance of Trade (May) 17.91B vs. Exp. 15.2B (Prev. 14.35B).
• Taiwan Exports YoY (May) Y/Y 51.7% vs. Exp. 37.9% (Prev. 39%).
• Taiwan Imports YoY (May) Y/Y 54.90% vs. Exp. 37.4% (Prev. 29.2%).
• Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jun) 80.6 (Prev. 83).
• Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change MM (Jun) -2.9% (Prev. 3.5%).
• Australian NAB Business Confidence (May) -14 (Prev. -24).
• Australian NAB Business Conditions (May) 3 (Prev. 3).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) start Tuesday's trade on a positive footing with geopolitical updates quiet. FTSE MIB (+1.6%) is the clear outperformer helped by gains in Banks, while FTSE 100 (-0.3%) is the only index in the red as miners and healthcare giants fall. European sectors hold a positive bias. Insurance (+1.3%) tops the pile, with Retail (+1.0%) and Banks (+1.2%) rounding out the top 3. To the downside are Basic Resources (-0.3%), Health Care (-0.5%) and Energy (-0.4%).

Top European News

• CBI warned around 200k more Britons are on track to become unemployed, with unemployment forecast to rise to 5.5% this year, while it cut UK GDP growth forecasts to 1.1% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027 from prior expectations of 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively.
• No breakthrough in discussions on finalising the Defence Investment Plan on Monday but it could still come this week, POLITICO reported citing sources.

FX

• G10s are nearly entirely firmer against a modestly softer Buck, which remains towards recent post-NFP highs. Kiwi and sterling outperform, NOK is the laggard with Brent Aug’26 -1.5%.
• USD a touch lower and well within post-payrolls ranges. The general risk environment has improved since Friday’s strong Payrolls, and Monday’s bid in crude. Overnight saw Kospi rise near 8%, optimism which has travelled through to European hours with bourses/US futures firm. The next inflection point, aside from geopolitics, will likely be US CPI and PPI on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Today sees the release of NFIB small business optimism data, weekly ADP jobs, and Trade metrics. Technicals, to the upside is the 100 mark, where DXY typically loses steam, and downside is 99.80 which provided support on Monday.
• GBP is one of the best G10 performers. A strong BRC retail sales showed consumer spending had steadied from a weak April figure with food and non-food sales accelerating sharply in May. Pantheon Macro estimates the BRC survey in isolation is consistent with a 0.6% month-to-month rise in official retail sales volumes in May. Cable took a hit on Friday’s Payrolls and continues to trade below levels seen before the data (c. 50pips), carry remains in focus into the slew of Central Bank meetings this, and next week. BoE pricing steady, still only pricing one full hike this year (c. 45bps by year-end), consistent with recent levels.
• Antipodeans outperforming with Kiwi benefitting to a greater extent after strong Chinese trade data beat expectations across the board thanks to robust tech-related Imports and Exports. Australian NAB business confidence was out overnight, remaining negative though faring better than April’s figure. AUD/NZD dipped from a 1.2136 peak, to mark a session trough of 1.2083, AUD/USD +0.1%, NZD/USD +0.3%.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mildly firmer this morning, benefiting from lower energy prices as recent geopolitical tensions ease for the time being. In brief, Israel and Iran have agreed to halt their strikes, though recent reports have suggested that Southern Lebanon remains under fire. Trump has continued to talk up the mood, stating that a total victory will be declared in two weeks. For reference, this marks the 37th time he has suggested that a deal is imminent, CNN reported.
• USTs (+2 ticks) are slightly firmer and trade within a 108-27+ to 109-03 range. As above, action is facilitated by lower energy prices, but with trade tentative amidst the uncertain environment. Also clouding the picture is the hawkish economic picture, with the recent NFP report pointing towards a solid labour market. US CPI and PPI (Wed/Thu) will play key roles for policymakers heading into next week’s policy decision. As for today, traders will digest US ADP Weekly Change, Exports/Imports, Atlanta Fed GDP, and Wholesale Inventories (Apr).
• Bunds (+10 ticks) and Gilts (+15 ticks) also trade modestly higher, but with price action rangebound. In Germany, Industrial Production increased from the prior, but still remains at low levels; trade data displayed a mixed picture.
• Over in the UK, BRC Retail Sales in May topped expectations (3.4% vs exp. 0.6%), indicating that consumers have remained resilient despite the Iran conflict; though, some of that spending may be related to the good weather experienced in the region. As for politics, UK PM candidate Burnham is reportedly poised to delay any Labour leadership bid until after the battle to retain the Greater Manchester mayoralty. Gilts trade in a 87.53 to 87.69 range.
• Germany sells EUR 1.756bln vs exp. EUR 2.0bln 1.80% 2053, 2.50% 2035 and 2.30% 2033 Green Bund.
• The Netherlands sells EUR 2.5bln vs exp. 2.5bln 2.50% 2035 DSL: Average yield 3.102% (prev. 2.810%).

Commodities

• Crude futures are softer, continuing from Monday's afternoon sell-off, as Israel and Iran seemingly hold onto their promises to halt attacks on each other. Despite this, there have been reports of strikes in Lebanon but benchmarks were unreactive. Late in Monday's session, Axios reported that in a call with Israeli PM Netanyahu, US President Trump warned that if the Israeli leader went back to war with Iran, he might be fighting alone. Further on the US-Iran deal, CNN reported, citing a top Iranian official, said a deal being imminently reached is doubtful due to persistence of major roadblocks regarding Iran's nuclear programme and uranium enrichment. However, these reports have failed to damper the risk tone. WTI Jul trades at the lower end of a USD 88.80-91.55/bbl range while Brent Aug hovers around the USD 92.00/bbl mark (USD 92.00-94.42/bbl).
• Precious metals have steadied since Friday's selloff, with spot gold hovering above the USD 4300/oz handle (USD 4313-4352/oz). Spot silver has regained the 200-SMA, trading at the upper end of its USD 67.46-68.86/oz range.
• 3M LME Copper gains, along with the broader base metal space, amid the positive risk tone. The red metal trades at the top end of its USD 13.55k-13.77k/t range.
• Vale said it has not seen any significant destruction in global metals demand from the Iran conflict, with strong demand for critical minerals and tighter raw material flows helping support commodity prices and margins.

Trade/Tariffs

• US asked China to resume rare earth exports to Japan, with Washington concerned regarding impacts on global high-tech supply chains, according to Nikkei.
• China Foreign Ministry, on the US adding Chinese firms to Pentagon list, said China always opposes US overgeneralising the concept of national security.

Central Banks

• BoJ is reportedly prepared to raise rates by 25bps at its June meeting, Nikkei reported. The hike is to prepare for the risk of an upward revision of inflation. Also, to begin discussions around the discontinuation of its quarterly reduction in government bond purchases from April 2027 onwards.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US President Trump said they are negotiating regarding Iran and a victory will happen very soon, while he stated they will declare total victory in two weeks and oil prices will come down post-Iran. Trump separately commented that he could have an idea on an Iran deal in one or two days, and stated the blockade continues to hold, as well as stated that they are very close to having a good, strong, powerful deal. On the Iran-Israel front, he said that Israel and Iran agreed to leave each other alone for another week.
• US VP Vance said a potential Iran deal will be a home run for the American people and that the US will need to verify over the long-term that Iran is living up to the agreement, while he also stated that the US's interest lies in a deal with Iran, whether Israel likes it or not. Vance also commented that the primary goal is to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and stated that a military option is not ruled out if diplomacy with Iran fails.
• Iran's UN envoy hopes for US-Iran talks conclusion by the end of June, and stated the US and Iran are exchanging views via Pakistan.
• Iranian official said no agreement can be reached unless its frozen funds are released and sanctions are lifted, while the official added that Washington made changes to the draft MoU and that this was unacceptable, according to Al Jazeera. It was separately reported that a top Iranian official casted doubt on a deal being imminently reached between the US and Iran, while the official said major roadblocks persist on issues like Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment.
• Iranian Parliament member said that if Israel attacks Lebanon or Iranian soil, then both Israel and US military bases will be legitimate targets.
• A military source familiar with the Houthis suggest that they are "preparing major military surprises, and that the weapons that will be used in the naval or aerial conflict will be of high quality", Kan's Kais reported.
• Two new airstrikes have reportedly been undertaken by Israel, targeting Southern Lebanon, Tehran Times reported.
• Tasnim news agency reported air raids by Israel on two settlements in the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon.IRNA reported continuation of attacks by Israeli regime on southern Lebanon.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia and Belarus are constantly ready to use all available means, including nuclear, to ensure security, according to an interview with Izvestia newspaper.
• Drone strike reportedly hit Sevastopol in Russian-annexed Crimea.

US Event Calendar

• 6:00 am: May NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 96, prior 95.9
• 8:30 am: Apr Trade Balance, est. -56.1b, prior -60.3b
• 10:00 am: May Existing Home Sales, est. 4.07m, prior 4.02m
• 10:00 am: Apr F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.55%, prior 0.5%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Istanbul. Please don’t tell my wife, but this extraordinary city was the backdrop to the greatest night of my life some five years before I met her. Even now, the memory is vivid of that special night of passion. The heat. The noise. The sweat. A pounding heart and hours of emotional turbulence. By late evening it felt inevitable that it simply wasn’t going to happen, and that I’d leave exhausted, disappointed and slightly broken. Then, just after midnight, against all logic and expectation, came a sudden, frantic and utterly euphoric release. Yes after being 3-0 down at half-time, the "Miracle of Istanbul" arrived and Liverpool fought back and ultimately won the penalty shoot out and, with it, the Champions League back in 2005. A night I will never forget but with the way Liverpool played this past season I'm not sure when that will be next repeated.

Talking of repeats, it seems the cycle of "near a deal, not near a deal, escalation, de escalation, maybe back near a deal" continues. However for now we’re back in the “a deal is still possible” camp and in addition the AI trade has continued to bounce back this morning.  
On that, the KOSPI (+7.35%) is sharply higher after its 9th worst day in 45 plus years of history yesterday (-8.29%). The Nikkei (+2.19%) is also benefiting from a recovery in technology stocks after a decline of over -3.5% yesterday. Chinese stocks are up just over half a percent and other markets are broadly flat. S&P 500 (+0.26%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.54%) futures are also continuing to recover after a decent session yesterday.

As I'm typing this this morning, President Trump has been speaking to reporters and has said that they are "very close to having a good strong powerful deal" and that they "could have an idea on Iran in one or two days now". Of course we've been here a few times before but the weekend stresses are fading back a little for now.  

Indeed markets swung around yesterday as we faced an array of geopolitical headlines. Initially, it looked like another rough session, with Brent Crude up over +5% in the European morning amidst the strikes between Israel and Iran we discussed this time yesterday. However, the mood soon began to turn more positive, with President Trump calling on both sides to dial things down which to be fair he tried to do late in the weekend. Then late in the European morning session, Trump posted that “Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly.”

That post from Trump led to an initial decline in oil prices, but the bigger move lower then came after Iran’s Fars said that the military operation against Israel had ended. Admittedly, they warned that further Israeli attacks would lead to “much harsher and more crushing actions than before”, but the end to the attacks was taken positively. Moreover, Israeli PM Netanyahu later said that Israel would hold fire in Iran for now. So it felt as though for the time being at least, the weekend flare-up in hostilities had been stopped, and there was still a path for peace talks to continue.

Given the end to the Israel-Iran strikes, Brent crude ultimately came down from an intraday peak above $98/bbl in the European morning, to $94.25/bbl by the close. Or in other words, it was only up +1.25% from its Friday close. That gap has narrowed further this morning with a -0.80% fall as I type. 

Even with the pull back, concerns around inflation remained high yesterday, which cemented investor conviction that central banks would still be hiking rates in the coming months. Indeed for the Fed, markets raised the chance of a hike as soon as September to 53%, up from 44% on Friday. It's ticked down to 50% this morning.  

Given that backdrop, it was a tough session for sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. So Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+1.6bps) up to 4.16%, its highest since February 2025, while 10yr (+3.3bps to 4.56%) and 30yr yields (+4.0bps to 5.03%) saw larger increases. Notably, there were some big milestones for real yields, with the 10yr real yield (+3.7bps) closing at a one-year high of 2.20%. However, we didn’t have any Fed speakers as we’re now in the blackout period before next week’s meeting, so we don’t have much sense of how they’re thinking about the strong jobs report and whether it warrants a hawkish reaction.

Over in Europe it was a similar story, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.2bps), OATs (+3.3bps) and BTPs (+3.4bps) all moving higher again. In fact, for 10yr OATs it took them up to a post-2009 high of 3.84%. And then in Germany, the 10yr real yield was at a 5-month high of 0.82%, despite some underwhelming data on factory orders, which showed a monthly decline of -3.8% in April (vs. -2.0% expected).

One relatively positive area yesterday was US equities, with the major indices stabilising after Friday’s slump. The recovery was particularly visible in segments that slumped the most on Friday, with the NASDAQ up +0.86%, whilst the Philly semiconductor index rose +5.61%, recovering about half of its -10.26% fall last Friday. However, the broader equity mood was more cautious, and the S&P 500 (+0.30%) recovered only a small fraction of Friday’s -2.64% decline. Indeed, almost two-thirds of S&P constituents were lower on the day, with tech and energy the only sectors to post clear gains. And the Mag-7 (-0.06%) struggled to follow the recovery in chipmakers, with Apple (-1.89%) leading on the downside amid a lukewarm reaction to the latest generation of its AI platform.

The equity weakness was clearer in Europe. In part, that was because they’d closed before the worst of the US losses on Friday, so there wasn’t the same bounce back potential. But they were also more exposed to the oil price increase, so the STOXX 600 (-0.15%) fell for a second consecutive session. There were similar moves across Europe, including for the DAX (-0.58%) and the CAC 40 (-0.23%), but Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.63%) was the main outperformer.

Looking at the overnight data, in China both exports and imports grew at an accelerated rate in May, exceeding forecasts as surging demand for AI hardware mitigated the impact of disruptions caused by the war in Iran. Exports surged by +19.4% y/y in May, surpassing expectations of a +15% increase. This significant rise was partly fuelled by a weak performance last year, during the US-China trade war. Imports soared over +27% y/y in May, resulting in a trade surplus of $105.4 billion, the largest since January. Additionally, South Korea’s economy expanded by +1.8% in the January-March quarter compared to the previous three months, an increase from the 1.7% growth estimated in April. On an annual basis, Asia’s fourth-largest economy grew by 3.8%, revised upward from the earlier estimate of 3.6%.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include German industrial production for April, the US trade balance for April, and US existing home sales for May. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Moulin

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 08:38

Apple's Aura Is Starting To Crack

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Apple isn’t in trouble. The company still generates enormous amounts of cash, the iPhone remains one of the most successful consumer products ever created, and its business continues to grow. If you forced me to choose one ecosystem to live in for the next decade, I’d still probably choose Apple’s. But for the first time in a very long time, the company appears to be showing signs of something investors haven’t had to worry about for years: imperfection.

And in a world where Apple is eventually dethroned as one of the best companies in human history, the fall from grace would start with the smallest of signs. The smallest aberrations. The smallest…imperfections.

What made Apple special over the last two decades wasn’t necessarily its ability to invent products first. It was the company’s uncanny ability to enter markets late and still produce the best version of whatever it was building. The iPod wasn’t the first MP3 player, the iPhone wasn’t the first smartphone, and the Apple Watch wasn’t the first smartwatch. Apple repeatedly demonstrated that it could arrive after everyone else, simplify the experience, and ultimately dominate.

That’s why the company’s recent stumbles are worth paying attention to.

The first is artificial intelligence. In February of 2025, I wrote about a simple interaction I had with Siri while washing dishes. Curious about whether all the hype surrounding AI had finally filtered down into products I actually used, I asked my Apple HomePod a straightforward question: “How many days are in February?” Instead of answering, Siri informed me that it couldn’t help and offered to send web search results to my phone.

So imagine my surprise when I asked Siri how many days were in the month of February, and she retorted: “I’m sorry, I can’t answer that right now. Here are some responses I found on the web. Would you like me to send them to your phone?”

“Are you f**king kidding me?” I thought to myself.

I guess the joke is on me. What a fool I’ve been. I’ve been watching the news about artificial intelligence and commenting on how it relates to the stock market for more than a year now. Yet by prompting my Apple product with just a simple query, it responded as though I was asking for it to mine all the bitcoin in the world in under a second… and make me a turkey and Swiss on white bread with mayo at the same time.

At the time, the interaction felt ridiculous. The entire technology sector was busy explaining how artificial intelligence was about to transform civilization, yet Apple’s digital assistant couldn’t answer a question that most elementary school students know by memory. Looking back, that experience may have been more representative of Apple’s position than I realized.

Over the last two years, competitors like OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Meta have pushed aggressively forward while Apple has struggled to establish itself as a leader in the AI race. Recent reporting from Bloomberg suggests the company itself recognized the severity of the problem. According to the report, senior executives held internal discussions in early 2025 focused specifically on Apple’s AI shortcomings and the company’s growing concern that it had fallen behind. Whether or not one agrees with every detail of the reporting, the broader point remains difficult to ignore: Apple found itself reacting to a technological shift rather than driving it.

The second warning sign was Vision Pro. From the moment the headset was unveiled, I was skeptical…not because the technology wasn’t impressive, but because I couldn’t envision a realistic use case that would cause normal people to wear it regularly. Apple’s greatest successes have always integrated seamlessly into existing human behavior. The iPhone, AirPods, and Apple Watch all solved obvious problems and fit naturally into daily life. Vision Pro felt different. It felt like extraordinary engineering searching for a compelling consumer need. And it looked…f**king ridiculous.

The market’s response seems to have validated those concerns. Even supporters of the product generally describe it as a technological achievement rather than a commercial success. That’s an important distinction. Apple has historically excelled not just at building advanced products, but at building products people actually want. Vision Pro may ultimately evolve into something, but the first iteration did not look like the next iPhone.

And now, even some of Apple’s smaller decisions feel slightly out of character. The dedicated camera button on newer iPhones is a trivial example, but it’s illustrative. Instead of simplifying the user experience, the feature often seems to complicate it. I find myself accidentally triggering functions I don’t want far more often than I intentionally use the button. The issue isn’t the button itself; it’s what the button represents. Under Steve Jobs and Jony Ive, Apple’s philosophy often revolved around removing friction. More recently, some products feel as though features are being added simply because they can be.

🔥 80% Off If You Subscribe Today. This coupon allows for 80% off of annual subscriptions and results in a 85% savings over paying the monthly rate for a subscription to the blog. You keep the discounted rate for as long as you wish to remain a subscriber.: Get 80% off forever

And now, as Apple prepares for a transition beyond Tim Cook, these questions become even more important.

Cook’s tenure will almost certainly go down as one of the most successful runs in corporate history. When he took over from Steve Jobs in 2011, Apple was worth roughly $350 billion. Today, it is measured in trillions. Under his leadership, the company transformed from a hardware giant into an ecosystem giant, built a services business that generates tens of billions in recurring revenue annually, expanded the wearables category, deepened customer loyalty, and became arguably the most important company in global capital markets.

In many respects, Cook accomplished the impossible. He inherited the most iconic CEO in modern business history and somehow made the company larger, more profitable, and more dominant. But the next CEO, John Ternus, won’t have the luxury of simply extending an existing winning streak.

For the first time in decades, Apple appears to be entering a new era with a few questions hanging over it. The company was late to recognize the significance of generative AI and has spent the last two years playing catch-up. Vision Pro, despite being an impressive technical achievement, failed to become the next great consumer platform many had hoped for.

Even some of Apple’s smaller product decisions increasingly feel evolutionary rather than revolutionary. Like Genmoji, for example. It’s clever, but it strikes me as the kind of novelty you use three times, show your friends once, and then never think about again. And what is that going to do for me when something functional and simple, like dictation while using AirPods, still doesn’t work.

None of these developments are existential. Apple still possesses the strongest ecosystem in consumer technology, a fiercely loyal customer base, and a services business that provides enormous stability and recurring cash flow. The company remains one of the world’s great businesses.

But maintaining dominance is often harder than achieving it in the first place.

The challenge facing Apple’s next leader isn’t fixing a broken company. It’s preserving the company’s king-of-the-hill status at a moment when competitors are moving quickly, artificial intelligence is reshaping the technology landscape, and Apple’s aura of inevitability has started to show the smallest of cracks.

That’s why Apple is worth watching. Not because it’s collapsing, but because the warning signs that precede corporate stagnation are often subtle at first. A missed trend here. A disappointing product launch there. A culture that gradually shifts from setting the agenda to reacting to it.

Apple may very well right the ship and remain the dominant technology company for another generation. Betting against the company has been a losing proposition for most of the last quarter century. But investors should keep an eye on it nonetheless.

Every great company eventually faces the question of whether it can continue defining the future or whether it will begin living off the success of its past. Apple hasn’t jumped the shark. It hasn’t lost its edge. It hasn’t surrendered its crown.

But AI is definitely the future, and Apple isn’t there yet. So, for the first time in a very long time, however, it’s reasonable to wonder if the cracks in Apple’s aura will become permanent down the road.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 08:20

From The City Of Angels To The City Of Zombies...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

The Jungle Drums Speak!

"Love that the crack heads on Skid Row are up on the issues, know the candidates, and are able to Make Their Voices Heard in between hits of meth."

- Peachy Keenan on X

Whaddaya know? Looks like the charismatic Nithya Raman has overtaken maverick candidate Spencer Pratt in the Los Angeles mayoral “jungle” primary because. . . jungle reasons. That is, the denizens of LA’s vast homeless encampments — once known as “hobo jungles” — apparently voted overwhelmingly by mail for the Harvard-credentialed champion of street-junkies in the Silver Lake, Echo Park, Los Feliz, Atwater, and Hollywood neighborhoods (SELAH) she represents on the LA City Council.

LA Mayoral Candidate, Nithya Ramen, Champion of the Down-and-Out

So, it will be a November runoff between the super-duper “progressive” incumbent Karen Bass, and merely super-progressive Ms. Ramen. Better reserve your U-Haul trailer ASAP, as the City of Angels completes its transformation to the City of Zombies. And no complaining, please. This is what you voted for.

By the way, what does “progressive” actually mean these days? Progress towards. . . what? The culminating disintegration of a civil polity? The concerted failure to govern a large, urban organism? Unconditional surrender to the forces of entropy? One might suspect a soupçon of racial animus in the mix, too, something of a middle-finger to this thing called white supremacy we hear so much about. It must be rooted out at all costs, including the cost of a place that a productive population once loved — the very people renting all those U-Hauls, dispersing out into the USA gloaming.

Of course, this “progressive” Democratic Party has transformed itself in a decade or so into an out-and-out racketeering operation, that is, to a criminal enterprise dedicated to the misappropriation of taxpayer money among its rank and file, many of whom are not citizens. The model is not unlike more primitive early versions, such as Boss Tweed’s ring in 19th century New York, or the gang under mayor James Curley, the “Rascal King” of Boston. The system was known as “patronage.” Voters were the party’s patrons, and the patrons were on the payroll. Some had actual party jobs. Some just got free stuff in exchange for their votes. They called it a “machine” because its operations became automatic, self-fulfilling.

There was one big difference, though: these earlier Democratic Party grifters, for all their moneygrubbing shenanigans, were American patriots. They celebrated a country so ostentatiously “free,” so fervently dedicated to upward mobility, that it made room for their garish political corruption. The Democratic machine of Los Angeles today is quite the opposite: It’s a faction that loathes and detests the American system and seeks sedulously to destroy it, even while grabbing as much loot as it can in the process.

Mayor Karen Bass was trained for that mission in Cuba. Beginning at age 19, in 1973, Ms. Bass made eight trips there with the Venceremos Brigade (founded in 1969 by the Lefty-left SDS) to “show solidarity with the Cuban revolution,” which, you might remember, was a straight-up communist revolution. One might infer, then, that Mayor Bass is a straight-up communist, with ambitions to destroy the capitalist city of Los Angeles, so as to replace it with a communist utopia — where all production (if there is any) is owned and controlled by the government, which then dispenses the fruits-of-production to the people, according to their needs, as officers of the government see fit.

In such a system, history shows, the people enjoy no ability to make decisions for themselves about what sort of work to pursue for their own improvement and well-being — what we call economic liberty. That’s all left to the political office-holders, the kommisars, the decision-makers, who tell everybody else what to do (because, you see, they know better). It has not worked too well in practice, as the collapse of Soviet Russia demonstrated, and the imminent collapse now of Cuba, will validate.

This is also exactly what you see in the aftermath of the Los Angeles fires of 2025. There was the fiasco of the fire itself in which everything that could go wrong, did go wrong, in the way of prevention and mitigation. The incompetence of Los Angeles city officials was so total — from the mayor’s absence in Africa, the fire chief’s cluelessness, the empty reservoirs, the broken fire hydrants, etc. — that Pacific Palisades and Altadena across town got completely destroyed. In the eighteen months since, the city’s bureaucracy (with “help” from the state) has made sure that next-to-nothing can be rebuilt. Since a large number of people employed in the movie industry lived in these places, and were left financially ruined, Karen Bass’s government has also neatly helped destroy the city’s signature business. . . a home run for communists!

Marxian economic theory is appealing to those who hate and oppose the natural fact that not all outcomes in human life are equal, who resent with red-hot passion the human tendency to social hierarchy, and work fanatically to defeat it. They never do, of course. In communist revolutions hierarchy always reorganizes itself — only within the party structure itself, while all extra-party human effort is outlawed. In California, as in the other “blue” states and cities, Democratic Party leaders perch in the upper branches of the social hierarchy while they cream-off all available revenue streams.

If you suspect there’s something shady about the California election system, you might be onto to something. President Trump thinks this is the case, and said so pretty forcefully on Sunday in his confab with the argumentative Kirsten Welker of NBC’s Meet the Press show. “There’s no evidence!” Ms. Welker repeated strenuously, of voting irregularity, either in this month’s California jungle primary, or in the 2020 national election. You think? I guess we’ll see about that.

Remember: former president Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela — home of the Smartmatic vote tabulation system — has been in US custody for months.

Do you suppose he might be trying to cut a deal for himself to avoid a very long prison sentence by disclosing what he knows about Smartmatic?

Do you suppose that Mr. Trump might know something about these ongoing negotiations?

Do you wonder if any of that has occurred to Kirsten Welker of Meet the Press?

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 08:00

Beijing Readies $297 Billion Data Center Buildout Blitz In Bid To Dominate AI Race

The US and China are locked in a series of races, with AI now sitting at the center of nearly all of them. This is a race not only to build the leading frontier models, but to deploy them across entire economies, unleash physical AI, and convert compute power into productivity, surveillance, military, and industrial advantage ahead of the 2030s. This is the new world we are entering, and it is moving incredibly fast. The current chapter of this story is the data center build-out phase. It will then eventually extend into space.

Goldman has already estimated that US hyperscalers will deploy $800 billion in capex this year alone on AI infrastructure. Across the Pacific, however, the scale of Beijing's data-center buildout had remained relatively opaque until now.

China is preparing to unleash a 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) data-center buildout phase over the next five years, according to a new Bloomberg News report, citing people familiar with the matter, as Beijing and Washington race to ensure their own tech giants are ahead in the frontier model race.  

The report said the National Development and Reform Commission is drafting plans for a network of interconnected data centers to be operated by state firms such as China Mobile and China Telecom.

These data centers are expected to rely heavily on domestic chip suppliers, including Huawei, for at least 80% of core technology. This is a move by Beijing to accelerate the development of its domestic chipmakers by sidelining Nvidia and AMD.

More color about the buildout:

The over-arching plan represents Beijing's most aggressive endeavor yet to lay the foundation for future Chinese AI development.

It recalls the undertakings of years past that marshalled resources to support national champions like Huawei, with the aim of replacing US technology. And it's a key prong of the "Six Networks" program announced earlier this year, covering construction of essential infrastructure spanning water and electricity to computing, one of the people said.

The report sent Chinese data-center stocks higher in the premarket: GDS Holdings rose by 5% and Vnet Group jumped 8%.

The US-China rivalry is extending well beyond the chip space. It should be viewed as a full-blown industrial race, and China's planned data-center buildout shows that Beijing is trying to fuse AI, power infrastructure, domestic chips, and state financing into a single national mobilization strategy.

Given that this is now a full-blown industrial race, Beijing's broader strategy is no longer limited to chips, data centers, and power infrastructure. It also extends into the domain of information.

The Bitcoin Policy Institute has warned of "three vectors of foreign influence," including CCP state media, the Singham network, and foreign-billionaire dark money, behind elements of the anti-AI data center campaign in the US.

If correct, that would suggest China's playbook is not just to accelerate its own AI buildout, but to slow, divide, and politically constrain America's.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 07:45

"Device-Level" Nudity Detection: UK Gov't Blackmailing Public Into Digital ID

Authored by Kit Knightly via OffGuardian,

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced plans, in a speech earlier today, to introduce "device-level controls" that will prevent children from viewing, sending or taking naked photographs:

This government will not stand by while children are put at risk online.

Today I am calling on the tech companies to introduce device-level controls to prevent children from taking, sharing or viewing nude images.

And if they don't act, we will.

— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) June 8, 2026

According to Justice Minister Catherine Atkinson, the UK will become "the first country where it will be impossible for children to take, share or view naked pictures"

The UK will be the first country where it will be impossible for children to take, share or view naked pictures, a justice minister tells @LeahBoleto.

The government says tech companies must stop this happening within three months or they'll be forced to act through legislation. pic.twitter.com/ZQ3MWobQ2X

— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 8, 2026

The only way this is even close to enforceable is if one or more of the following measures are in place:

• You must verify your age by linking your digital devices to your ID.
• You must allow the government - or whatever private third-party agency the government employs - access to your phone's data and files at all times.
• You must allow third-party software to scan every attempted photo.

It means "nudity detection" on every app on the device, at all times. There's literally no other way of doing it. From the government's website earlier today [emphasis added]:

Apple recently introduced age checks for iPhone users, making it the first company to activate safety features by default for those who are not verified as over 18. This is a significant step forward following the government's commitments to work with industry, and one this announcement builds on.

Despite this, the nudity detection is not applied to the camera or broader apps, third-party messaging services, or search functions, meaning children can still take, view, share and save nude images. The government therefore wants Apple and Google to block nudity across the whole device by default

...but don't worry, just verify your age via digital ID or biometrics or whatever, and the government won't look at your internet history or share your nudes.

Over-18s will still be able to view adult content by providing proof of age.

It's the basest of blackmail, that's all.

The UK government wants to make it mandatory that everybody verifies their age by linking their ID to their smartphones or other digital devices.

That's ALL they want.

We all know what this is really about.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 07:20

Goldman Hikes Obesity Drug Market Forecast As Oral GLP-1s Go Mass Market

The global weight-loss drug market is now expected to reach $114 billion by 2030, up from Goldman's prior $101 billion forecast, as analysts cite faster adoption of oral obesity pills, stronger demand outside the U.S., and improved affordability that is expanding the patient pool.

Goldman analysts led by Asad Haider and James Quigley laid out four main drivers behind the upgraded 2030 anti-obesity drug TAM forecast (previous forecast made in Dec. 2025):

1. Higher oral vs. injectable share and a higher oral TAM. With oral NBRx (new-to-brand) prescriptions (a leading indicator) now 40-50% following the strong launch of Novo's Wegovy pill, we now expect orals to represent 40% ($46bn) of the 2030 global revenue TAM (vs. 35%/$35bn prior).

2. Shifting sales mix within orals. We balance our share splits with Novo's Wegovy pill now 38% (vs. 16% prior), LLY's Foundayo now 48% (54% prior) and "other" now 14% (vs. 30% prior). We now forecast Wegovy peak global sales of $17.4bn (vs. prior $8bn) and Foundayo 2030 sales of $22bn (vs. prior $19bn).

3. Increased OUS penetration and a higher OUS TAM. Per stronger-than-expected OUS ramp for LLY's Mounjaro, we now forecast 2030 total OUS obesity sales of $48bn vs. $39bn prior, driving most of the higher 2030 Global TAM from $101bn to $114bn.

4. Updated pricing assumptions across channels. We lower pricing assumptions in the US DTC channel by 20% (to now $287 vs. prior $355) driven by lower prices across the board and higher oral mix shift.

Haider expects Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to control 82% of the global GLP-1 market share by the end of the decade.

The forecast assumes a larger shift towards oral obesity drugs.

Oral obesity drugs are expanding market share.

The oral Wegovy pill has had greater momentum since launch compared to Lilly's Foundayo.

Wegovy and Foundayo to dominate oral obesity drugs in the new forecast.

Medicare is expanding the patient pool. Goldman expects obesity coverage expansion to begin on July 1, through the GLP-1 MFN deal, modeling a potential 17 million-patient opportunity over time and $2.6 billion in Medicare-channel obesity sales in 2026, mostly skewed toward injectables.

The GLP-1 market outside the US is also set to become a major factor.

Rise of GLP-1s in China.

Goldman's revised GLP-1 TAM model for 2030 suggests obesity drugs are evolving from high-priced injectables into mass-market oral pills, broader international adoption, Medicare access, and lower consumer prices.

GLP-1 weight-loss drug headlines dominated the news cycle since 2021, with the initial hype cycle propelling Novo Nordisk shares in Copenhagen to record highs. That momentum has since sharply reversed as competitors and copycat drugs begin reshaping the market.

The question now, and certaintly analyst Quigley, is simple:

When does Novo finally bottom?

Professional subscribers can read the full GLP-1 TAM note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 06:55

Since Lockdowns, A 12% GDP Loss; Half Of US Dollar Purchasing Power Stolen

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

Many of us have had the intuition that the economic damage from 2020 – including industrial stoppages, monetary printing, supply-chain disruptions, extended school closures, and general population demoralization – was in fact far greater than official statistics indicate. 

What follows will shore up this intuition, using new techniques and numbers from an innovative project called RealityIndex.co. 

It’s true that official data is bad enough, showing a 26% loss in purchasing power, slow growth in output, and only marginal improvements in real income. The labor participation rate and worker/population ratio never fully recovered and continue to fall.

Output has been lackluster. It’s supposedly running 2.3% which is about half the postwar norm for US economic performance. It feels like a general downshift. Official data shows a brief recession in 2020 followed by gradual economic recovery overall. 

But is this even true? In 2024, Brownstone Institute commissioned a study (by E.J. Antoni and Peter St. Onge) that concluded that we have never really entered recovery after 2022. We’ve been in a technical recession since that time. They got this with some limited adjustments of price data bumped up against output data. That study was met with brutal attacks, with every critic falling back on official data and doubting the supposed extremism of the conclusion. 

That’s where matters have stood even as reports pour in concerning broken labor markets, no raises for 1 in 4 professional-class workers, and sketchy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data that seems barely above zero thanks mainly to medical-sector subsidies, government spending, and social services. Then there are the learning losses showing dramatic declines in test scores among affected students. 

We are left with real questions. How can consumer sentiment be at historic lows given that the overall data seems to raise no loud alarms?

In the meantime, Artificial Intelligence has come along to make these complicated calculations possible, ones that seek to discern and delineate the huge gaps between official data and reality. The goal is to come up with real data concerning real prices, sans the many different methods that the Department of Labor uses to adjust price changes. 

For example, housing prices are not measured directly but rather converted to owners’ equivalent rent (OER). Medical service prices are adjusted for consumption, not premiums or final bills. When consumers substitute one good for another, that is also factored in. When the quality of a good or service improves, the statisticians apply what they called hedonic adjustments, which are invariably designed to minimize price increases and never run the other direction. 

Where does this leave those of us who are looking for a plain index of prices? A veil has been put over that basic question and answer, such that we don’t know for sure. This matters tremendously for issues like raises, examining cost of living increases, taxes, and pension payments. Everything is adjusted for inflation to convert it to real valuations but if we don’t have a clear number, what are we to do?

This is why we should be thrilled about a new study/service called the Reality Index. You are free to browse the site yourself and examine every aspect of the method. Essentially, the site owner, an independent intellectual in Madrid, Tom Elliott, has deployed tools of AI to wholly reconstruct price indices in a way that is consistent with actual prices. His results are absolutely eye-popping. I’ve examined the method here in detail and found no fault. 

The Wall Street Journal has also taken notice. This is good news and raises the possibility that we can finally get to the truth. 

The core of the problem is a constantly changing methodology in official data. The formula was changed eight times over 35 years. All the changes seem technical and vaguely justifiable, once explained. Adding them all up, you get wild distortions in the data that the index is supposed to reveal. All these changes came home to roost in the great inflation of 2021-2024, which might be entering a second wave right now. 

In 1983, owners’ equivalent rent replaced basic housing prices. The new formula was based on an estimate of what homeowners would have to pay to rent their own homes. But in real life, people pay mortgages, property taxes, and home prices. When home prices and mortgage rates rise faster than rents, the new formula understates the housing inflation real households face. 

In 1996, the Boskin Commission announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was overstated because people substitute higher-priced goods for lower-priced goods which are too slow in being calculated. The agency made the correction to eliminate the bias in the fixed basket of goods. The problem is that every single adjustment ended up forcing the reported rate to be less than a plain addition of the same goods over time. 

In 1998, there was a new fashion for hedonic adjustments. This stemmed from an observation that quality is always improving, especially in digital goods and computer functioning. The idea is that you might be paying the same or even more but you are getting more bang for your buck with quality shifts. You guessed it: hedonic adjustments drew the inflation rate lower. Notably, hedonic adjustments never run the other way, raising prices when quality decreases. 

In 1999, a geometric mean formula replaced arithmetic mean for most CPI components. This was intended to capture substitution effects. This was the change that ended up disguising the increase in medical service costs. By looking at consumed services rather than actual prices, the inflation rate in this sector ended up burying inflationary trends. This highly technical adjustment completely ignored all the ways in which substitution is a behavioral adaptation to inflation, not a reduction in the inflation experienced. 

In 2002, we got a continuation of this same method with new “chained CPI” which changes the basket weighting based on new purchasing patterns. Sure, if people buy less beef and more chicken, the household will experience inflation in a different way. But this ignores the manner in which the substitutions themselves are a response to higher prices. In 2017, the new calculation was applied to taxes causing people to pay more than they otherwise would have under the old method. 

In 2018, the hedonic adjustment strategy was expanded to a huge new range of products including smartphones, residential telephone services, internet services, and cable and satellite television. In 2020, at the same time the composition of M1 was changed and not retrospectively applied such that the data is essentially useless. Following money supply data became more difficult. Then in 2024, the Bureau of Labor Statistics stopped looking at the actual cost of medical services and started only looking at claims, completing the consumption-only bias against actual posted prices. In 2025, a month went by with no data collection at all. 

So what happens when we strip all this away and examine actual prices as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, without all the many adjustments? We find that a basket of goods and services that cost $100 in 1980 costs $515 per the Reality Index in 2025. The official CPI reports only $391. 

That means that real prices have run 32% higher over 45 years than the government reports. Over a 55-year window, the Reality Index ran 54.4% faster than CPI. 

To put it another way, consider the loss of purchasing power since 1980. According to the CPI, the loss has been to make $1 in 1980 worth only 26 cents. According to the Reality Index, the loss is greater: $1 in 1980 is now worth only 19 cents. By any standard, that is a shocking devaluation. All of this became much worse starting with lockdowns. 

There is much more work to do with this method. The charts could be interactive. They can also be set for real-time updates. They will be if Elliott continues to develop this. He should. There might even be commercial value in this. 

Think about the implications. Isolating from the beginning of the Covid period to the present, Elliott’s data estimates as much as a 40% loss in purchasing power over six years. Or perhaps closer to 50%. Here is a zoom in of the above chart covering 2019 to the present.

This seems correct to me. Government data, meanwhile, logs only a 26% loss. That’s a massive gap between the official data and what prices actually reveal. With an AI re-rendering that tracks purchasing power – the flipside of the increase of prices – we get numbers closer to 50%. That means that Covid cut the value of the dollar in terms of goods and services to half its former value.

I asked AI to map this out in terms of year-over-year changes in prices. CPI shows a peak in 2022 followed by a decline in the rate of increase. Reality Index shows that the devaluation actually intensified and never fell below 6%. This explains so much about consumer sentiment and political shifts. People feel it even if official data never revealed it. This kind of chart forces a rethinking of the history of the last six years.

There are still larger implications. We measure national output with the Gross Domestic Product, a national income statistic used since the 1930s. For output data, it would make no sense to report it in nominal terms without factoring in inflation. As a result, the GDP is usually reported in real terms, with an inflation adjustment that is continually compounded on an annual basis. 

Elliott’s own data – which is shocking enough – did not go into the implications for GDP. But I was able to use a simple AI tool to make those adjustments, adding the corrected price index as the deflator metric. 

The result is rather astounding. The recession of 2020 never really ended in a sustained way. Charted by hard numbers and then by percent change, you gain a very different picture of present levels of output. It causes one to completely rethink the last six years. 

The official definition of recession is two quarters of declining real GDP. In revised data, we’ve had consistently negative GDP in all but three quarters since summer of 2022. In those three quarters, output barely rose above zero. Mostly real GDP has been falling, a recession without end. 

Overall, Grok AI estimates a loss of 5-12% of GDP from 2019 to present using Reality Index numbers. Sorry but read that again. Instead of any recovery, we’ve seen as much as double-digit declines in GDP overall since 2020. This is the cumulative loss spread out over six years. 

That’s roughly half of the losses of the full period of the Great Depression, which was more catastrophic than people know. Most research from the 1930s, for example by George Selgin, shows that this was not a normal business cycle but a structural hit tracing to the very coercive measures designed to fix the problem. Price controls and market disruptions made a bad situation far worse. This is precisely the sort of hit that should worry us the most. 

The lockdowns were a similar situation: a massive exogenous shock to commerce, accompanied by a huge devaluation of the currency. It amounted to a gigantic transfer of wealth to elites, the largest in history, followed by a destruction of wealth of the middle and lower classes. 

At least during the Great Depression, people knew it was happening. It was officially documented. Our times are different. We have heard nothing for six years except happy talk about economic recovery. Based on real data, the opposite has happened, most tracing to the disastrous lockdowns of 2020. 

The beauty of this data is that it is subject to replication. Anyone can look at the methodology and disagree. Be my guest. From what I can see, the actual picture is far closer to the reality that most people are experiencing. 

In other words, that only one in four workers has had a nominal raise in five years barely scratches the surface. The reality could be that we’ve lost as much as 12% of national output since the lockdown era, along with a halving of the currency value. It’s somehow worse that we are only now able to document this. 

Also, I would like to see his methods applied to my own concern over effective household income per hour of work. We keep hearing that household income is rising in real terms without considering that it generally takes two incomes to provide what one once did. It won’t do to pretend that two incomes in a single household is double the income when one person has been drafted into the workforce to sustain living standards. 

Adding that consideration in here, and the dramatic change in household remuneration between 1950 and 1990, would be very revealing. After all, only 1 in 5 households (with children under 18) had two income streams in 1950 where it is 3 in 5 today. That is effectively a diminution of wages per household hour and not an increase in income. Add that consideration and you would generate a chart of declining living standards in the decades before lockdowns delivered the final coup de grâce. 

And that is where we are today. Households are scrambling to keep the bills paid while juggling children and domestic life while running from job to job to keep the flow going as best they can. Meanwhile, they money they earn has less buying power than ever. It’s no wonder consumer sentiment is rock bottom. 

It is long past time for this technical work to be done. What Tom Elliott has provided is what index numbers should provide: clean and stable comparisons of the same or similar products over time, no adjustments, refinements, and manipulations. Run those numbers against conventional output numbers and you produce a very different picture of economic performance since 2020. 

We’ve lived so long with distorted statistics. It fascinates me that the person who finally did it is an independent data expert in Spain rather than an employed academic in the US. That itself is revealing.

The big picture is that the lockdowns, not only nationally but globally, were far more catastrophic for us economically than has been generally admitted or recognized. It is not unusual in the history of economics for the really bad news to emerge years and even decades after an exogenous shock such as war. 

We would rather not wait that long. The crisis is too real and the public knows, even if the official data does not admit the truth. 

Lockdowns were a kind of war on the population. The economic carnage might have sliced off half of the purchasing power of the dollar and cut output by as much as 12% over six years (in real terms, leaving aside missed counterfactual growth on the previous trajectory), even as labor participation never recovered and continues to fall. 

Did Covid kick off a kind of permanent recession? How many decades must pass before we admit what happened? More precisely, how much longer will it take before the public mind recognizes what they did to us? 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 06:30

These Are The World's Most Prosperous Countries

The world’s richest countries are not always the most prosperous.

As Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld details below, according to the Atlantic Council’s 2026 Prosperity Index, the world’s most prosperous countries tend to combine economic strength with high living standards.

Meanwhile, the U.S. places 38th overall, far below many smaller advanced economies, highlighting the gap between wealth creation and broader quality of life.

Europe Leads Global Prosperity Rankings

Europe dominates the rankings, claiming 30 of the top 40 spots. Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and Sweden all place in the global top five.

With a GDP per capita of $90K, top-ranked Norway benefits from a resource-rich economy in which oil revenues are channeled into its $2.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund. Having doubled in size over the past decade, the fund helps finance public services such as healthcare and education while supporting long-term economic stability.

High-ranking Iceland and Denmark also combine expansive social programs with competitive business environments and high levels of public trust. Along with their smaller populations, these factors can support stronger overall quality-of-life outcomes.

The rankings below measure how effectively countries convert wealth into broader living standards, including healthcare, education, equality, minority well-being, and environmental quality.

Notably, Central European economies such as Slovenia (#10) and Czechia (#12) outperform many larger and wealthier peers. Strong performances in equality, healthcare, and education help these countries rank ahead of major economies including Germany (#13) and France (#23).

Their performance suggests that prosperity is shaped not only by national wealth, but also by how evenly resources and opportunities are distributed across society.

Singapore Leads Asia in Prosperity

Singapore ranks 18th globally, standing out for its high GDP per capita of $93K and strong public infrastructure. It also has one of the highest life expectancies in the world.

Its ranking reflects decades of state-led investment in housing, healthcare, transportation, and education, helping transform Singapore into one of the world’s most efficient and competitive economies.

Overall, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan all rank in the top 30, scoring well economically but often lower than Northern Europe on equality and social indicators. At the same time, aging populations, rising housing costs, and intense work cultures continue to weigh on broader well-being across several advanced Asian economies.

Why the U.S. Ranks Behind 37 Other Countries

The U.S. ranks 38th overall despite being the world’s largest economy.

The country scores relatively poorly on several quality-of-life indicators, including inequality, environmental performance, and access to opportunity among minority groups. It also ranks 46th globally in life expectancy, the lowest among comparable high-income nations. That gap has continued to widen over time.

The ranking underscores a broader paradox: while the U.S. remains a global leader in innovation, capital markets, and economic output, those advantages have not translated evenly into health outcomes or social mobility.

Prosperity Is About More Than Wealth

The 2026 rankings reinforce a growing global reality that economic strength alone no longer guarantees high living standards. Increasingly, the world’s most prosperous countries are those that combine wealth creation with strong institutions, accessible healthcare, social mobility, and sustained investment in citizens’ well-being.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the top 50 economies by GDP in 2026.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 05:45

5 Future Scenarios For Post-Conflict Iran

Authored by Christian Milord via The Epoch Times,

There likely are more than five scenarios that Iranians could opt for as hostilities unwind, but the following five visions represent the paths Iran could take this year. Will 2026 onward become the Third Islamic Republic, following the first (1979-1989) and the second (1989-2026)? We can only speculate on the outcome of this third evolution, which might or might not be powered by clerics.

First, in the fluid situation on the ground in Iran, There are many forces at work. When the dust clears, Iran might fall right back into the same rut it has traversed since 1979. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei might be at the top of the pyramid, while President Masoud Pezeshkian and members of the Assembly of Experts, Cabinet, Courts, Guardian Council, and Parliament will appear to remain loyal to the ideology of militant Shia Islam. Over 80 percent of Iranians are Shia, while the remainder are adherents of Sunni Islam, the Baha'i faith, Christianity, and inter-religious practitioners.

In this scenario, the dreaded Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would continue to hold sway as a parallel military force to the national armed forces (Artesh) of Iran - which is by now also fully under the control of the Islamic Republic. While similar to the oppressive prior Mukhabarat (internal intelligence/security) in Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the Assad dynasty in Syria, the IRGC has both an external and internal arm that metes out its own version of justice abroad and at home. Once again, Iranians would be forced to look over their shoulder and censor their own behavior. The regime would rebuild its military weapons arsenal, fund foreign terror proxies, and manipulate the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint with inspections and tolls.

Next, when the conflict concludes and a ceasefire holds, balkanization of the nation might unfold. In Iran, there are large numbers of Balochs, Kurds, Turkmen, etc., who will compete to defend their own interests in a country divided by a limited economic pie. It will be difficult for the regime to rebuild its military arsenal following months of devastation.

Third, following a tenuous ceasefire and shuttle diplomacy, Iran will descend into civil war. There are parallels between Iran's current status and Syria under the rule of Bashar al-Assad (2000-2024). Both paranoid regimes have had little trust in their own citizens to handle freedom and opportunity. Bashar was far more brutal than his father, Hafez al-Assad (1971-2000), and his harsh measures against protests plunged Syria into civil conflict for thirteen years (2011-2024).

Apparently, Mojtaba Khamenei is more hardline than his father, and as supreme leader he would attempt to crush any voices for democracy and justice. His interlocking relationship with the IRGC would help to pave the way to widespread oppression. The outcome of this civil war would be difficult to predict since Iran has a much larger population than Syria, and periodic demands for civil and economic reform often unfold in several urban areas.

Fourth, If a ceasefire is effective and the free flow of commerce commences through the Strait of Hormuz, will Iranians look to the past as a guide to build a brighter future? Will they reject the excesses of the Islamic Republic and seek to create greater economic opportunity and equality for women? It appears as if a large portion of Iranians would favor exiled diaspora leaders such as Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as a transitional figure to assist internal reformers in shaping a representative government. Of course, the brutal IRGC would attempt to thwart any reformist movement.

Fifth, this last scenario offers some hope. Are the remnants of the Islamic Republic leadership capable of turning away from permanent conflict? Through intense negotiations with several stakeholders, there is a breakthrough to possible peace and security. Instead of merely paying lip service to basic reforms, Iran's leadership would agree to allow for greater freedoms for women, hold open elections, and promote economic growth.

That would include discarding kangaroo court trials that deny rights to Iranians who are arrested. While Iran doesn't have a history of democracy, incremental baby steps in that direction could occur for the sake of Iran's future prosperity and security. The regime would agree to cease funding foreign terror proxies, surrender the half ton of enriched uranium that's underground, halt the production of long range ballistic missiles, and free up the Strait of Hormuz to global commerce.

In this scenario, it's possible that former Presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mohammed Khatami, and Hassan Rouhani would be consulted on reforms that formerly were vetoed by Parliament and the supreme leader. Incrementally normalizing relations with Israel and other regional states could gradually unfold, although signing up to the Abraham Accords might be a tall order. If this fifth option fails, Iran might be doomed to repeat history once again.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 05:00

Netanyahu Confirms Israel 'Holding Fire, For Now' - Rejects Iran Red Line To Not Attack Lebanon Summary

• Israel has rejected Iran's warning not to attack Lebanon, though aerial operations appear paused.
• Israeli officials say strikes on Iran being halted at President Trump's request to 'stop shooting'. Netanyahu confirms attacks halted 'for now'.
• Iran FM accuses US of cooperating with Washington: "No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States" (Foreign Ministry spox).
• Iran's sprawling Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex bombed by Israeli Air Force.
• Houthis seek to close/threaten Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for Israeli-linked passage: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea.

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 17% · No 84%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Israel Rejects Iran Attempt to Assert Red Line on Not Attacking Lebanon

The Lebanon crisis remains a tug-of-war flashpoint between Tehran and Tel Aviv. The Iranians want to force a situation where any broader peace deal with the US is linked directly to achieving permanent truce in Lebanon. However, the US and Israel have consistently sought to thwart these attempts. According to Bloomberg:

Israel will strike Hezbollah in Beirut in retaliation for any further cross-border attacks by the Iranian-backed Lebanese faction, Israel’s defense minister says in a statement, rejecting a threat by Tehran to resume missile salvos in solidarity with Lebanon.

“Any Iranian attempt to link Lebanon to Iran in attacking Israel will be met with a forcible response, as happened yesterday,” Defense Minister Israel Katz says, referring to an air strike in the Lebanese capital which prompted Iranian missile fire against Israeli targets. If Hezbollah attacks Israel’s northern communities “it will lead to an attack on the Dahieh,” he says, referring to a Beirut suburb where support for Hezbollah is strong.

Still, Israel has by late Monday (local) made clear it is halting attacks on Iran and Lebanon 'for now' after President Trump called for immediate restraint.

UPDATE: In their Sunday call, Trump asked a Bibi not to attack Iran. Bibi wanted to respond, so Trump said to keep any retaliation limited and don't let the conflict escalate.

Israel attacked Iran.

On Monday, Trump asked Bibi to end attacks on Iran. Bibi agreed.

No yelling.

— Alex Ward (@alexbward) June 8, 2026 Israel Halts Iran Attacks 'For Now'

"After Iran attacked Israel, I instructed the IDF to strike military and economic targets throughout Iran," Netanyahu said in a fresh Monday statement. "For now, the fire has been contained, because after we struck the terrorist regime in Tehran, it ceased attacking us. If the terrorist regime in Iran makes the mistake of attacking us again, we will respond with force." The key lines from Netanyahu:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Israel had stopped its attacks on both Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, after the Iranian military announced it was halting operations.

In a brief statement Monday, Netanyahu said "Iran and Hezbollah are weaker than ever, and we are stronger than ever - but our struggle with them is not over yet."

Having bombarded both adversaries, he added, "right now, the fire has been halted."

Iran's military headquarters responds: "Should aggression and hostile actions continue—including in southern Lebanon—far more severe and forceful measures than before will follow," it said, according to Iranian state media.

And in a clear sign of the exchange of strikes having ceased:

Iran says flight restrictions have been lifted with airspace returning to normal conditions: state media

Israel Pauses Iran Strikes At Trump's Request

Israel's N12 News is reporting that Israel is halting strike on Iran at President Trump's request. There are widespread initial reports that Israeli forces are indeed pausing the attacks, which persisted overnight through Monday morning, and included attack on a major petrochemical complex. However, the latest Israeli messaging has included a warning on the Lebanon front, per Bloomberg:

Senior Israeli official says Israel is stopping strikes in Iran at Donald Trump’s request, but confirms operations in southern Lebanon will continue at full intensity in the coming days. The official also warns that Dahieh in Beirut could be targeted if attacks on Israeli settlements and civilians continue.

There are also emerging reports (via CBS) that Trump did not order any US defensive efforts to protect Israel from the latest Iranian ballistic missile attacks - which were the first against Israel since the early April ceasefire.

Meanwhile, in a fresh message from Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran says "Without a doubt ... the actions of the Zionist regime in the region cannot be separated from U.S. policies." Tehran is rejecting the attempts of the Trump administration to distance the US from Israeli actions: "No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States," Baqaei added.

Trump: 'Stop Shooting'

A big question remains is if this flare-up in major fighting, which has featured the first direct attacks between Iran and Israel since the April ceasefire took effect, will be short-lived or whether it will endure and escalate into sustained war.

So far the situation is showing signs it could be short-lived, after early Monday morning President Trump urged Israel and Iran to immediately stop "shooting" in a Truth Social post. He also expressed that this musts be done "quickly" and is still talking up a "final" peace deal - which at this moment looks as distant as ever. Iran is signaling it is ready to get back to ceasefire, but Israel is again threatening the Beirut suburbs.

Here's what Trump wrote in a couple of brief Monday posts:

Israel and Iran must immediately stop “shooting.” ...and:

Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Big Round of Israeli Retaliation Airstrikes on Iran

Videos of Israel's further daytime attacks on sites across Iran have emerged, after Iran sent ballistic missile waves on Israel on Sunday, in response for the IDF renewing airstrikes on Beirut.

BREAKING NEWS: Israel is striking targets in Iran.

The Israeli Air Force carried out heavy strikes across Iran. About 15 targets in total. pic.twitter.com/3dlaht2nm5

— Hananya Naftali (@HananyaNaftali) June 8, 2026

For now, Tehran is claiming the current round is over, with Iran's armed forces having announced the end of military operations against Israel while warning of "harsher" attacks if Israel resumes strikes on Lebanon, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters spelled out the Islamic Republic's latest justification: "Following the aggressions and acts of mischief by the brutal Zionist regime in southern Lebanon and the Dahieh area, carried out with the support of criminal America, the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in support of the oppressed people of Lebanon, delivered a painful response to this regime." And there's a new message from Iranian President Pezeshkian, saying:

"Diplomacy and defense are the two wings of national power; we have neither left the field nor the negotiating table... We will defend the rights of the nation with authority and will not retreat in the face of any threat."

Massive Iranian Petrochemical Complex Hit

Israel, however, made sure to leave a massive mark before any cooling off. The Israeli military confirmed it attacked Iran's sprawling Mahshahr petrochemical complex on Monday, marking its first strike on the critical asset since the April 7 ceasefire agreement.

The Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex, as it is formally known, is widely seen as one of the crown jewels of Iran's energy sector. Tucked near the southern city of Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini - a vital industrial port on the Persian Gulf - the sprawling complex consists of more than 50 separate petrochemical plants producing roughly 72 million tons of products annually, according to Iran’s oil ministry.

The Israel Defense Force (IDF) released color footage of strikes on an Iranian air defense system in Iran. Per the IDF release, Israel has gained relative air superiority over western and central Iran and have struck a number of air defense systems in these areas. pic.twitter.com/WjEPzqSu3H

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 8, 2026

Iranian state media reported that one specific installation, the Karun petrochemical plant, was hit twice Monday morning. While a local official told Fars that no casualties were reported, the facility sustained notable structural damage.

IRGC: 'Dangerous Game'

The response from Iran's elite military branch was immediate and ominous. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps condemned the precise strike as a "dangerous game" - openly threatening to expand the scope of how it retaliates against Israel, explicitly noting that future targets will include energy-related sites.

Israel already compiled a visual strike map showing targets it hit in Iran overnight into Monday:

The latest wave of strikes in Iran involved dozens of fighter jets targeting the regime's strategic defense systems. pic.twitter.com/A2mBGwd9LU

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 8, 2026

With both sides testing the absolute limits of the April truce, the macro risk to regional energy infrastructure has officially rocketed back to the forefront, as Trump desperately tries - or is at least appearing to - walk the two sides back from the ledge.

Vital Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (Red Sea) Under Threat: Houthis Declare "Total Ban" On Israeli Ships

On the maritime chokepoint front, Iran-backed Houthis declared a full ban on Israeli vessels in the southern Red Sea, warning that any Israeli ship (or linked ship) will be seen as a military target:

"First: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements to be military targets for our Armed Forces from the moment this statement is issued."

The statement continued, "Second: We affirm that we will meet escalation with escalation, and that our military operations will escalate in line with events, the battle, and in conjunction with the axis of Jihad and Resistance."

The announcement is similar to the Houthis' late-2023 campaign, when rebel forces attacked ships linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports in or around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. They framed the attacks as retaliation for the Gaza war. Potential disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea will only add to the headaches for global maritime trade, as it is a critical sea route for Asia-to-Europe commerce and Gulf energy exports.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 18 miles wide, making commercial vessels extraordinarily vulnerable to suicide drones, missiles, mines, and small boats.

More Headlines/Latest Developments

via Newsquawk...

WEEKEND MIDDLE EAST RECAP

• Israel conducted airstrikes on a couple of apartment buildings in Beirut’s Dahiya district on Sunday, in what the military described as targeting a Hezbollah command centre.
• Iran launched four waves of strikes against Israel on Sunday evening in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Beirut, which it stated ‘crossed all red lines’, while it threatened devastating blows if Israel expands Lebanon operations. Iran signalled a halt to attacks if Israel refrains from strikes, but vowed stronger retaliation if Israel strikes back, and it closed its western airspace until further notice.
• IRGC said that the Ramat David Airbase was hit by ballistic missiles and that future attacks are to target US-Israel regional assets, while Tehran Times noted reports of missiles being fired at a US airbase in Jordan.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu was reported to be holding security consultations following the latest developments, while the Israeli military said the missiles launched by Iran were intercepted, although Iran claimed a successful strike on northern Israel.
• US President Trump said he was supposed to announce that a deal with Iran would be signed this week, and now this is happening, while he called for Iran to end the missile fire and return to talks. Trump also stated that he was not happy about Israel striking Beirut and that Israel’s attacks were not coordinated with the US. Furthermore, Trump said he would call Israeli PM Netanyahu to tell him not to attack Iran in response, and noted that they are close to a final deal, which he doesn’t want to blow up.
• US attacked Iranian coastal surveillance sites on Saturday after shooting down drones launched towards the Strait of Hormuz. US military said that Iran had fired missiles and drones towards Kuwait and Bahrain, while drones were also fired towards 4 commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran Supreme Leader’s military adviser Rezaei said Iran’s attack on Israel on Sunday serves as a warning to Israel to cease strikes on Beirut, while he warned of a further response to aggression.

EUROPEAN MORNING IRAN CONFLICT UPDATES

• US President Trump posted "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting."
• US President Trump said Israeli PM Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept whatever deal the US negotiates with Iran because he calls the shots. Trump stated that Iran's strikes had not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations and he thinks the deal is going on, but we will see what happens, and he would consider a commando raid on Iran if a deal failed, according to FT.
• US told Israel to hold off for a few days to allow space for a deal, with a joint action plan to proceed if talks fail. It was separately reported by Tasnim, citing Israel's Channel 12, that Israeli PM Netanyahu tried to object to US President Trump's request not to react to Iran during a phone call, but in the end accepted it.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Washington is responsible for the current situation because it is a party to the ceasefire agreement, and the ceasefire has been continuously and repeatedly violated by the opposing sides. Action is to be taken whenever deemed necessary to defend the country's interests. On the ceasefire agreement, the spokesperson said that ending the war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement, and when this clause is violated, the diplomatic track is also affected. Furthermore, he said the message exchange is ongoing with the US and Pakistan's Interior Minister visited Tehran to push negotiations. Lastly, he said they are not talking about the issues of enriched uranium or enrichment at this stage.
• Iran's IRGC said that by taking action against civilian targets and targeting oil industries, Israel has targeted a dangerous game which will encompass all energy targets in the region and consequences for the global economy belong to the US. Iran's IRGC further said that we are ready to carry out operations on all fronts, and our response has been planned based on various enemy scenarios.
• An Iranian source said that "Iran is prepared for a long-term war... The coming days will show that the calculations of the Israelis and Americans are always wrong", Tasnim reported.
• Iranian Supreme Leader senior adviser said on Sunday that Tehran threatened to block the Bab-al Mandab if Israel escalates its attack, according to CNN citing IRIB.
• Yemen's Houthis announce a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea. The Houthis also claimed responsibility for a missile attack in Israel and said banning navigation to the enemy is a preliminary step and the group is prepared for additional steps against any escalation.
• Israeli projectile hit an Iranian petrochemical plant, with the Karun petrochemical plant damaged in Khuzestan province.
• Israel's army expects the exchange of strikes with Iran to continue for several days, Al Hadath reported.
• Israeli Minister Smotrich is expected to propose at the next Security Cabinet meeting that Israel should respond to every Iranian missile launched at Israel by striking 20-30 buildings in Beirut's Dehaya district, journalist Stein reported.
• Israeli military said the Israeli Air Force struck military targets belonging to the Iranian regime in western and central Iran.
• Throughout Monday in Iran, there have been reports of loud explosions in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Kermanshah and Karaj, while explosions were reportedly heard in southern Lebanon. Additionally, there were some arab sources reporting explosions at the Prince Sultan Air Base in central Saudi Arabia, however involvement was denied by Iran.
• Drone attack reported from Yemen towards Israeli targets, according to Tasnim.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 04:35

Watch: French Fighter Jets Shoot Down Kamikaze Drone Over Latvia

There's been another 'mystery' drone shootdown incident over Baltic and Eastern European airspace early Monday.

Latvia's military and Foreign Affairs Minister confirmed that French fighter jets had shot down a drone that entered its airspace, after a series of similar incidents in the region over the past months. Some sources are claiming it was a Russian UAV, while others are claiming the drone is Ukrainian. 

WATCH: French Rafale jet shoots down a Ukrainian kamikaze drone over Latvia this morning. pic.twitter.com/sZ3gJ3gf2m

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 8, 2026

Baiba Braže, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Latvia, took to X to "thank our French allies for shooting down the drone that penetrated Latvian airspace."

The country's National Armed Forces (NBS) said an airspace warning that had been issued had been lifted by 10:30 am local time. The incident triggered an emergency alert to go out on cell phones across the region.

The NBS sent alerts to mobile phones of citizens living in the eastern municipalities of Ludza, Balvi and Alūksne, after which a military spokesperson told Reuters that the drone entered Latvian airspace from Russia.

"Seek shelter indoors, close windows and doors - follow the two-wall principle," it told residents, after detecting a potential inbound threat in Latvian airspace.

"If you notice a low-flying, suspicious, or dangerous object, do not approach it and call 112. We will inform you when the threat has ended," the NBS added.

The NBS further described that it had deployed additional units to Latvia's eastern border to strengthen air capabilities.

The Kremlin has continued to frame these incidents as likely of Ukrainian origin, seeking to shift blame away from Russia. According to state media:

Latvia did not name the origin of the UAV. However, a similar incident was reported overnight in Moldova, where the authorities said a drone that crashed there was most likely Ukrainian.

The incidents appear to fit a growing pattern of drones launched by Kiev against Russia ending up in third countries.

The interception in Latvia took place over Nautreni Parish, about 15 km from the Russian border. On Monday morning, the Defense Ministry released two videos filmed from the ground by witnesses showing the aircraft being taken down.

Latvia's military has been pointing the finger at Russia for the dangerous intrusion.

📍Lettonie | Destruction d’un drone par les Rafale 🇫🇷💥

➡️ Survol d’un drone au dessus du territoire letton 🇱🇻
➡️ Décollage sur alerte des chasseurs 🇫🇷 engagés dans la mission de l’OTAN Baltic Air Policing depuis la base aérienne de Šiauliai 🇱🇹
➡️ Identification et destruction… pic.twitter.com/NFIMSP7Ibl

— Armée française - Opérations militaires (@EtatMajorFR) June 8, 2026

There have been other repeat drone incidents in Europe, for example the spate of mystery UAV sightings over Northern and Western Europe. With these, it's anyone's guess as to the origins.

Some pundits have suggested these are merely irresponsible hobbyists, or else pranksters. However, the reality of projectiles entering neighboring countries as a result of the Ukraine war is much more serious, and a significant threat to these populations.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 04:15

Google Met Top German Govt Officials Many Times To Discuss Online "Hate Speech" And "Disinformation"

Authored by John Rosenthal via DailySceptic.org,

Data provided in a German Government response to a parliamentary question on online censorship show that Google met with top German government officials dozens of times between early 2022 and spring 2024 to discuss suppression of online “hate speech” and “disinformation”.

Major online platforms and search engines (X, Facebook, TikTok, Google, etc.) are required to take measures to suppress “illegal hate speech” – i.e., illegal per the standard of European laws – and allegedly harmful “disinformation” under the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA). As shown in the US House Judiciary Committee’s recent report on European censorship of the internet, the tech companies are in constant contact with EU officials on DSA “enforcement”.

But the German Government’s parliamentary response shows that there have been regular and extensive contacts with the German Government on these subjects as well – and that by far the most frequent such contacts have been with Google. The DSA creates censorship prerogatives not just for the EU as such, but also for EU member states, and Germany is known to make particularly ample use of these prerogatives. It is indeed national “speech laws”, of which Germany has the strictest in Europe, that platforms are required to enforce under the DSA.

The revelations are relevant not just to Germans, but also to Americans, British and indeed the world, because DSA enforcement is neither territorially nor linguistically limited. It applies to all speech in any language from any source anywhere in the world: i.e., so long as it is visible via the internet in the European Union. Online platforms may choose to comply by geo-blocking certain content – in particular, alleged “hate speech” – just in the EU where it is illegal. But they also can and frequently do take the technologically simpler and less costly path of removing the content in question outright.

Moreover, the DSA explicitly sanctions the use of visibility-filtering – i.e., algorithmically limiting the reach of content rather than removing it – and visibility-filtering is necessarily global. It affects the discoverability and visibility of speech all around the world. As shown here, under the pressure of the DSA, visibility-filtering has become the go-to method employed by social media platforms to suppress alleged ‘mis-’ or ‘disinformation’.

Search engines like Google can, of course, act even more decisively to restrict the reach of alleged ‘disinformation’: namely, by downranking websites or webpages in search results or even excluding them altogether.

The parliamentary question submitted by Germany’s opposition AfD (Alternative for Germany) party in March 2024 expressly relates to both censorship methods, or what its authors describe as “removal or reach throttling of user posts or user accounts”.

Both question and answer bear the title “Meetings of Representatives of the Federal Government with [Tech] Companies and Funded Non-Governmental Organisations on the Topics of ‘Hate’ or ‘Disinformation on the Internet’”. A first set of data provided in the Government response concerns meetings with NGOs. These include, for instance, the publicly-funded German NGO HateAid, which has been assigned the status of a “trusted flagger” of allegedly problematic online content under the DSA.

A second set of data covers the meetings on “hate speech” and “disinformation” with the tech companies themselves. It provides details – date, place, participants, topic, etc. – on no fewer than 53 meetings in the stated time period. An excerpt can be seen below. (The Government also included a few meetings on other topics, such as the protection of minors, in the data.)

It should be noted that, by the Government’s own admission, the data are not exhaustive and only cover meetings involving top German government officials, such as ministers or ‘state secretaries’ – i.e., the highest-level civil servants in German government ministries. Lower-level contacts are explicitly not included, and the Government response notes that it has no legal obligation to record all meetings, i.e., even at the highest levels.

Some of the meetings were publicised by the German government at the time of their occurrence, but most of them were confidential. This is noted in the data, with some of the meetings even being deemed “not suitable” for public knowledge. In other cases, it was merely deemed “unnecessary” to inform the public.

The data include, for instance, a January 2023 meeting in San Francisco between Elon Musk, who had only just recently completed his acquisition of Twitter, and the German government’s then minister for digital affairs Volker Wissing. The subject of the meeting was “how Twitter deals with false information, new requirements under the Digital Services Act”. This meeting was publicised in Germany.

The data also include no fewer than 13 meetings with representatives of Meta on topics like “disinformation in the context of RUS[sian] war against UKR[aine]” (March 3rd 2022 at the Digital Affairs Ministry in Berlin) and “questions of cybersecurity and how Meta deals with disinformation” (February 12th 2024, with a German Interior Ministry official in Menlo Park, California). TikTok was involved in seven of the meetings.

But by far the greatest number of meetings were with Google. Google participated in no fewer than 34 of the meetings included in the data, and no fewer than 29 of them were bilateral meetings between Google or its parent company, Alphabet, and the German government. YouTube, a Google subsidiary, was also sometimes involved.

Then German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, identified by the initials “BK” (Bundeskanzler), participated in two of the meetings with Google and three of the meetings overall. Other participants on the German side included Scholz’s chief of staff Wolfgang Schmidt; another top Scholz advisor, state secretary Jörg Kukies; the minister of the interior, Nancy Faeser; the minister of justice, Marco Buschmann; the economics minister, Robert Habeck; two top officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; a top official of the Ministry of Digital Affairs; and Klaus Müller, the head of the agency responsible for German DSA implementation, the Federal Network Agency. Müller remains the President of the Federal Network Agency under current German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The vice-president of the agency, Wilhelm Eschweiler, also met with Google on two different occasions.

Participants from Google’s side included Alphabet/Google CEO Sundar Pichai; Alphabet/Google’s President of Global Affairs; the Google Vice-President for Trust and Safety; and Google’s Director of Government Affairs and Public Policy. CEO Sundar Pichai personally participated in no fewer than four of the meetings.

Topics discussed included “hate speech, fake news and disinformation on the web”, “disinformation in the context of RUS[sian] war against UKR[aine]”, “Digital Services Act and how to deal with mis- and disinformation on platforms”, “disinformation and DSA”, “disinformation, resilient democracy, illegal content, hate crime”, “strengthening the resilience of democracy and dealing with disinformation”, “key challenges of Google and YouTube with respect to cybersecurity and disinformation”, and so on and so forth.

Among other venues, meetings took place at the German Ministry of the Interior, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other relevant ministries in Berlin, as well as at the offices of the Federal Network Agency.

No fewer than three of the meetings took place at the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, the German equivalent of the White House.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 03:30

Pro-EU Ruling Party Wins Armenia Election In Landslide, Kremlin Blasts Western Interference

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party has won parliamentary elections, according to Monday's result, after a vote which has signified the small Caucasus nation's major pro-Western shift.

His Civil Contract party secured 49.81 percent of the vote, while the main opposition party Strong Armenia - seen as pro-Moscow, finished a distant second with 23.29 percent. National turnout in the country of three million people was close to 60%.

Pashinyan claimed a "historic victory that will ensure Armenia’s eternity and development" while also vowing to "continue the course of rapprochement with the West" - but while balancing the pursuit of positive relations with Russia.

Anadolu/Getty Images: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared victory in the parliamentary elections early Monday morning.

Prime Minister Pashinyan has made known his intentions for his country to eventually join the EU. However, Strong Armenia party is claiming that the winning side in reality mounted a campaign of interference and intimidation: 

The second-placed Strong Armenia bloc is led by Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire who made his fortune in Russia and is under house arrest for allegedly advocating for the government’s overthrow. He has rejected the charge as politically motivated.

Karapetyan called the elections "shameful" and denounced alleged violations and repression, saying dozens of his campaign staff had been arrested. Armenia’s Investigative Committee said it had opened 59 criminal cases over alleged electoral violations and detained nine people.

The Kremlin itself has also pounced on this theme, with Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova alleging unfair and illegal tactics unleashed by local authorities on Russia-friendly interests inside Armenia.

"On June 7, parliamentary elections were held in Armenia in an atmosphere of unprecedented pressure on the opposition and interference from the West, primarily the EU," Zakharova commented.

And more of her remarks via TASS:

She stressed that the preliminary results announced by the republic's Central Election Commission indicate that the Civil Contract party of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, which declared its victory, "did not receive a monopoly on power." "Moreover, compared to the previous electoral cycle, its support has noticeably decreased," Zakharova added.

Recent years of war between Christian Armenia and its better-armed Muslim neighbor Azerbaijan (which is a secular Republic) has seen tensions ratchet between one-time close allies Armenia and Russia. 

Armenia has long been a key member of the regional Russian-led bloc, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, Armenia froze its participation since 2024, outraged over Russia's failure to protect ethnic Armenians during Azerbaijan’s 2023 takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh.

PM Nikol Pashinyan’s party has won the election in Armenia with 50% of the votes, securing a comfortable majority in Parliament.

Pashinyan will now be able to continue strengthening Armenia’s relations with the EU, move away from Russia and signing a peace deal with Azerbaijan pic.twitter.com/QdWsHwQ8S3

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 8, 2026

Russia since played a 'peacekeeping' role with some limited troop deployments; however, Armenian Christians had already been booted from the ancient enclave. Armenian officials (and the population) have since expressed bitterness that Moscow didn't do more to bolster its historic claims on Nagorno-Karabakh. The episode was seen as a devasting, region-altering loss.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 02:45

Street Unrest In Albania After PM Says Pristine Land 'Belongs' To US-Saudi Investors 

Authored by Jake Johnson via Common Dreams

Albanians took to the streets in droves for the eighth consecutive day on Sunday to protest a proposed $1.6 billion luxury resort complex backed by US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, one of several investors in the project, which opponents say is both corrupt and disastrous for wetlands and wildlife.

“One week later, we are still here, stronger than yesterday,” said the Albanian Ornithological Society, a leading critic of the proposed development. “Millions around the world are united in one voice for nature, for justice, and for the protection of what belongs to everyone, standing for every protected area in Albania.”

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama has vocally defended the project amid mounting public backlash, saying in a recent interview that the land marked for development “belongs to the investors,” not the Albanian people.

via Associated Press

Rama also criticized the thousands of people who have turned out to protest the luxury hotel project as well as international media coverage of the demonstrations, saying that “there is no chance” that “the projects in Albania will be defined by street protests.”

Demonstrators, many raising pink flamingo cutouts to decry the project’s expected impacts on the vulnerable bird and other wildlife, have demanded cancellation of the resort project and Rama’s resignation, accusing him of steamrolling environmental concerns to bolster the country’s tourism industry and curry favor with the Trump administration. Kushner currently works for the administration as a “special peace envoy.”

“We are stronger than your bulldozers,” chanted demonstrators over the weekend.

As The New York Times reported last year, Rama heads the government committee that gave “Kushner and his business partners the right to move ahead with accelerated negotiations to build the luxury resort on a 111-acre section of the 2.2-square-mile island of Sazan that will be connected by ferry to the mainland.”

“Mr. Kushner’s Affinity Partners, a private equity company backed with about $4.6 billion in money mostly from Saudi Arabia and other Middle East sovereign wealth funds, is pursuing the Albania project along with Asher Abehsera, a real estate executive that Mr. Kushner has previously teamed up with to build projects in Brooklyn, New York,” the Times added.

Lea Ypi, an Albanian academic, wrote in an op-ed for The Guardian on Monday that “Albanians know that real-estate speculation without state support means ordinary citizens will struggle to buy a flat or pay the rent.”

Protests in Albania are exploding for a seventh straight day like nothing before.

Thousands of Albanians are refusing to surrender their land to Jared Kushner’s elite private island wish.

They are also demanding the immediate removal of their prime minister for colluding with… pic.twitter.com/fbQK0oIB6D

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) June 7, 2026

“They know that luxury tourism means holidays in your own country become a privilege for the few,” Ypi added. “With no unions to speak of and a labor movement that only appears in communist-era footage of May Day parades, work conditions are so exploitative that only those from countries even more desperate are willing to take the jobs that arise.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 02:00

10 Enduring Lessons From Adam Smith

Authored by Nikolai G. Wenzel via The Daily Economy,

Adam Smith (1723-1790) is widely considered to be the father of modern economics. There were precursors, such as the School of Salamanca and the French Physiocrats, but Adam Smith's 1776 magnum opus, "An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations," was the first comprehensive treatise.

A statue of Adam Smith in Edinburgh, Scotland, in a file photo. Travel Telly/Shutterstock

In this 250th anniversary year, much ink will be spilled - and with good reason - celebrating the legacy of Adam Smith. My purpose here is as joyous as it is modest: to share ten quotations that are particularly relevant today, and demonstrate Adam Smith's enduring influence. I like to weave them into my lectures - on markets, on political economy, on constitutional economics, or on the moral foundations of capitalism. Adam Smith, in the versatility of his writings, was indeed a man for all seasons.

1. The Invisible Hand Acts

"[B]y directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention .... By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it. I have never known much good done by those who affected to trade for the public good."

Perhaps the single best-known concept from Adam Smith, the invisible hand was famously picked up by the Austrian school of economics and its key lesson of spontaneous order. F.A. Hayek, especially, noted the importance of phenomena that were "the result of human action, but not of human design." Alas, interventionists of all stripes still think they can supersede the invisible hand of the market.

2. People Are Not Pawns

The flip side of the invisible hand involves social and economic engineering. Adam Smith was prescient in describing the psychology of social engineers, those self-proclaimed experts who believe, in their hubris, that they can run an entire economy.

"The man of system ... is apt to be very wise in his own conceit; and is often so enamored with the supposed beauty of his own ideal plan of government, that he cannot suffer the smallest deviation from any part of it. He goes on to establish it completely and in all its parts, without any regard either to the great interests, or to the strong prejudices which may oppose it. He seems to imagine that he can arrange the different members of a great society with as much ease as the hand arranges the different pieces upon a chess-board. He does not consider that the pieces upon the chess-board have no other principle of motion besides that which the hand impresses upon them; but that, in the great chess-board of human society, every single piece has a principle of motion of its own, altogether different from that which the legislature might choose to impress upon it."

3. Collective Action Can't Be Imposed

The "man of system" quotation is long enough that it bears cutting in two. In the second part, Smith laments the unintended consequences of social engineering. If the policymaker is cautious and respects both human nature and local knowledge, the results can be a marginal improvement over the status quo - this is the basis of Buchanan and Tullock's theory of collective action through the state.

"If those two principles coincide and act in the same direction, the game of human society will go on easily and harmoniously, and is very likely to be happy and successful. If they are opposite or different, the game will go on miserably, and the society must be at all times in the highest degree of disorder."

4. Markets Coordinate Effort

Adam Smith's key theoretical contribution is the division of labor. But this is not merely an economic model, to be calculated with production charts by eager students of microeconomics. For Smith, it is something more, an instrument of cooperation to overcome the limitations of human beings:

"This division of labor, from which so many advantages are derived, is not originally the effect of any human wisdom .... It is the necessary, though very slow and gradual, consequence of a certain propensity in human nature ..., the propensity to truck, barter, and exchange one thing for another."

The division of labor solves a social problem:

"It is thus that man, who can subsist only in society, was fitted by nature to that situation for which he was made. All the members of human society stand in need of each others' assistance, and are likewise exposed to mutual injuries. Where the necessary assistance is reciprocally afforded from love, from gratitude, from friendship, and esteem, the society flourishes and is happy. All the different members of it are bound together by the agreeable bands of love and affection, and are, as it were, drawn to one common centre of mutual good offices.

"But though the necessary assistance should not be afforded from such generous and disinterested motives, though among the different members of the society there should be no mutual love and affection, the society, though less happy and agreeable, will not necessarily be dissolved. Society may subsist among different men, as among different merchants, from a sense of its utility, without any mutual love or affection; and though no man in it should owe any obligation, or be bound in gratitude to any other, it may still be upheld by a mercenary exchange of good offices according to an agreed valuation."

5. Self-Interest Actually Helps Everyone

Smith was excited about the potential for markets to align incentives. In another famous quip, he reminded us that markets transform private interest into public harmony:

"It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest."

In more recent terms, we are reminded of Deirdre McCloskey and Art Carden, both fellows of AIER. The title of their book speaks for itself: "Leave Me Alone, and I'll Make You Rich: How the Bourgeois Deal Enriched the World."

6. Permissionless Societies Create Prosperity

The bourgeois deal has alternately been described in Physiocrat A.R.J. Turgot's plea: "laissez-faire, laissez-passer" - let us act, let us pass. Ever the professor of moral sentiments, and not just the founder of modern economics, Smith was quick to show that the bourgeois deal was instrumentally good, indeed - but it was also the grounding for a free society:

"Every man, as long as he does not violate the laws of justice, is left perfectly free to pursue his own interest in his own way."

7. Cooperation Connects Us

Smith's first major work, "The Theory of Moral Sentiments" (1759), predated "The Wealth of Nations" by almost two decades. While demonstrating how markets advance the public good by appealing to and channeling private interests, Smith made it clear that human beings are fundamentally creatures of cooperation:

"How selfish 'soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it except the pleasure of seeing it."

8. Individual Responsibility... With Limits

While emphasizing the importance of individual responsibility, Smith was also realistic about the limitations of what human beings could do. He warned:

"The administration of the great system of the universe ... is the business of God and not of man. To man is allotted a much humbler department, but one much more suitable to the weakness of his powers, and to the narrowness of his comprehension; the care of his own happiness, of that of his family, his friends, his country: that he is occupied in contemplating the more sublime, can never be an excuse for his neglecting the more humble department."

In a similar spirit, Ludwig von Mises explained in his 1927 book, "Liberalism": "[Classical] liberalism limits its concern entirely and exclusively to earthly life and earthly endeavor. The kingdom of religion, on the other hand, is not of this world. Thus, liberalism and religion could both exist side by side without their spheres' touching." Smith, Mises, and the classical liberal tradition stand as a foil against the busybodies - on the right and on the left - who would attempt to administer the universe through temporal means.

9. Collusion Threatens Competition

If Smith was worried about the political "man of systems," he was also worried about business colluding against the consumer, instead of serving the market through competition.

"People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices ..."

Smith cautioned us, however, against state efforts to prevent industry collusion:

"It is impossible indeed to prevent such meetings, by any law which either could be executed, or would be consistent with liberty and justice ..."

But he did offer a solution, in the form of more free trade, and fewer regulations to discourage competition:

"But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies; much less to render them necessary."

10. Institutions Drive Economic Growth

I am an institutional economist. I first came to economics from a preoccupation with economic development and ending, or at least abating, poverty. With economist Robert Lucas, if not with the same success, I am obsessed with such questions. When observing that some countries are rich and others poor, and that some grow slowly and others quickly, he commented:

"I do not see how one can look at figures like these without seeing them as representing possibilities. Is there some action a government of India could take that would lead the Indian economy to grow like Indonesia's or Egypt's? If so, what, exactly? If not, what is it about the 'nature of India' that makes it so? The consequences for human welfare involved in questions like these are simply staggering: once one starts to think about them, it is hard to think about anything else."

International development is infuriating, for two reasons. First, it has been a massive failure - well, international aid has been a massive and expensive failure; behind the futile efforts of the men and women of systems, markets have been plugging along, and poverty has fallen radically in the past 200 years. Second, because the recipe for growth is so obvious. It works every time it's applied, from the United States and Western Europe in the early 1800s to China after Mao's death and India after the end of the licensing raj, and to every country that embraced globalization and market reforms.

It's the recipe that Smith offered as early as 1755, twenty years before "The Wealth of Nations," and well before the Enlightenment ideals were translated into economic policy:

"Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice, [... the] rest being brought about by the natural course of things."

This quotation is thought to come from a transcript of a 1755 Adam Smith lecture, from Dugald Stewart's lecture notes.

In more modern language, peace is obvious, as is low and transparent taxation. A "tolerable administration of justice" might be translated as rule of law. Taken together, we have economic freedom, which is closely correlated with growth and wealth. Instead of fancy macroeconomic policies, imposed from the top down by the men and women of systems, the New Development Economics proposes a radical and simple solution. Focus on microeconomics, institutions, incentives, and the transmission of knowledge in the Austrian tradition.

Smith warned us what happens when the basic conditions for economic growth are ignored by conceited policymakers and politicians:

"All governments which thwart this natural course, which force things into another channel, or which endeavor to arrest the progress of society at a particular point, are unnatural, and to support themselves are obliged to be oppressive and tyrannical."

Tyranny is the midwife of poverty; liberty, of prosperity.

Reprinted from The Daily Economy, a publication of the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER).

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 23:25

Report Says Cuba Mobilizing Militias As U.S. Invasion Fears On The Rise

Weeks after Cuba's leader warned that any U.S. military action against the communist-controlled Caribbean island nation would be a "bloodbath" and risk destabilizing the region, local media reported that the regime had begun handing out weapons to ordinary citizens. Other reports, however, dispute that claim and suggest Havana is instead mobilizing its territorial militias. Either way, the signal is hard to ignore: Cuba is shifting into a higher defensive posture.

Venezuelan news outlet Diario Versión Final reports:

The Havana government has begun distributing weapons to ordinary citizens, officially urging them to prepare for an imminent foreign invasion.

However, The Times and The Sunday Times reporter Stephen Gibbs said reports that Cuba is handing out weapons to civilians are not true "for obvious reasons," adding, "It is mobilizing its milicias de tropas territoriales, and some weapons have reportedly been handed to firefighters, etc."

No, Cuba has not begun distributing weapons to civilians, for obvious reasons. It is mobilising its milicias de tropas territoriales and some weapons have reportedly been handed to firefighters etc.

— Stephen Gibbs (@STHGibbs) June 7, 2026

Additional militia report:

🚨Alert: The Communist Cuban government has started to distribute AK-47 machine guns to civilian militia members, urging the public to fight the ‘gringos’ and prepare for an imminent American invasion!! pic.twitter.com/5EVtZzZwZu

— US Homeland Security News (@defense_civil25) June 7, 2026

Last week, the U.S. slapped sanctions on Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, his wife Lis Cuesta Peraza, his stepson Manuel Anido Cuesta, and members of the Castro family as the Trump administration mounts a six-month economic pressure campaign against the communist regime. Other sanctions targeted Cuban foreign influence networks tied to U.S. left-wing NGOs.

The escalation in the pressure campaign comes as the growing U.S. naval presence in the region is described as the largest outside the Middle East, with the USS Nimitz carrier strike group, guided-missile destroyers and cruisers, surveillance aircraft, and drones operating near the island.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently said Havana is "in a lot of trouble," warning that a failed state just south of Florida represents a national security threat.

President Díaz-Canel warned last week, "If it were to materialize [U.S. invasion], it would trigger a bloodbath with incalculable consequences, plus the destructive impact on regional peace and stability."

Those "incalculable consequences" Díaz-Canel referenced were not defined. But recent warnings point to a broader threat spectrum, ranging from potential drone threats against the U.S. homeland to the risk that radicalized U.S.-based NGO networks tied to the Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples, or ICAP, could be activated to sow chaos on U.S. streets. That may help explain why Rubio moved to sanction the entity. 

Secretary Rubio,

Two of the organizations listed above are direct partners of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which has 100,000 members nationwide and 250 elected officials in office.

For these very same reasons, they should be investigated. https://t.co/6daEjUtcYw

— 🇺🇸 Jason Curtis Anderson (@JCAndersonNYC) June 4, 2026

Polymarket odds for a Cuban invasion by the end of the year stand at 40%.

//-->

Tick tock. Tick tock. 

US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Yes 39% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

 

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 23:00

Tiny X-Ray Telescope Could Unlock The Moon's Hidden Chemistry

Authored by Tokyo Metropolitan University via ScienceDaily,

Researchers at Tokyo Metropolitan University have used simulations to show that a small, newly developed X-ray telescope could help create a chemical map of the entire lunar surface. Such a map would be a major step toward understanding how the Moon formed, changed, and evolved over time.

A new compact X-ray telescope could help scientists produce the first-ever complete map of the Moon’s chemical makeup. Credit: Shutterstock

Their detailed modeling, which included both the telescope detector and a realistic Moon orbiting satellite mission, suggests that one telescope could map five important elements in about two years. A larger five by five array of detectors could produce sharper maps and complete the work more quickly.

Mapping The Moon's Chemistry

The Moon's geological history is still not fully understood. One major reason is that scientists do not yet have a complete geochemical map of the lunar surface. Because researchers cannot simply collect samples from every part of the Moon, they must rely on remote sensing methods.

One of these methods is X-ray fluorescence imaging. In this approach, detectors are pointed at the Moon to capture X-rays emitted by specific elements after they are struck by solar radiation. Those signals can help reveal which elements are present across different regions of the surface.

Why Complete Lunar Maps Are Difficult

Earlier observations from the Apollo and Chandrayaan missions produced useful partial maps, but a full global map is still missing. Creating one is technically difficult for several reasons. Missions have limited time to gather enough sunlight driven X-ray signals, and detectors can degrade during long periods in space.

The problem is especially difficult near the Moon's poles. In these regions, solar X-rays are weaker, which makes it harder to collect the signals needed to identify surface elements.

A Compact X-Ray Telescope For Lunar Orbit

To address these obstacles, a team led by Airi Toida and Prof. Yuichiro Ezoe of Tokyo Metropolitan University has proposed using a compact X-ray telescope on a satellite orbiting the Moon. The telescope would allow wide area observations of the lunar surface during strong solar flares, when the Sun provides more intense X-ray illumination.

Traditional X-ray telescopes are often too large and heavy for this type of mission. By contrast, the team's compact telescope was originally designed for studying Earth's magnetosphere and weighs less than ten kilograms. Its small size could make it practical for long term lunar satellite observations.

The detector has also been tested in radiation conditions far harsher than those expected in lunar orbit. That durability could support robust, wide area, high resolution imaging over an extended mission.

Simulations Show A Path To A Full Moon Map

The researchers then added the telescope's specifications into a numerical simulation to test whether a satellite mission could successfully map the Moon. Assuming 300 solar flares per year and a single telescope aboard a Moon orbiting satellite, the simulation showed that the whole lunar surface could be mapped for five elements - oxygen, iron, magnesium, aluminum, silicon - in two years, using a grid size of 70 x 70 kilometers.

Because the telescope is so compact, the team also examined a satellite carrying a five by five array of telescopes. According to the simulations, this 25 telescope system could reduce the mission time to one year. With two years of operation, it could also map sodium, while improving the grid size to 30 x 30 kilometers.

A New Window Into Lunar Geology

If either mission concept becomes reality, it would produce the first complete map of elemental abundance across the entire Moon. That achievement would give scientists a powerful new tool for studying lunar geology and reconstructing the Moon's long and complex history.

This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 21H04972.

Journal Reference: Airi Toida, Daiki Ishi, Yuichiro Ezoe, Masaki Numazawa, Kumi Ishikawa. "Numerical simulation of light-element geochemistry of the lunar surface using a compact and lightweight XRF imaging spectrometer." Earth, Planets and Space, 2026; 78 (1). DOI: 10.1186/s40623-025-02326-2

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 22:35