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Berkshire Buys Taylor Morrison For $6.8 Billion In First Big Deal Under Greg Abel

Less than a month after we mused at Berkshire's most recent cash hoard which as of March 31 stood just shy of $400 billion, and wondered who Warren Buffett's replacement Greg Abel will acquire first...

... we got the answer on Sunday afternoon, when Berkshire announced it will acquire homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home Corp. in an all-cash deal worth about $6.8 billion. Which means that after the deal, Berkshire still has $390 billion in T-bills collecting about 3.5%. 

The offer of $72.50 per common share represents a 24% premium to the home builder’s latest closing price on Friday. The deal is expected to close in the second half of this year.

Taylor Morrison is one of the largest community developers and homebuilders in the US and also offers financial services like home loans, titles, escrow and insurance to consumers, according to the statement. The firm has more than 350 communities across 12 states. The existing Taylor Morrison management team, including Chief Executive Officer Sheryl Palmer, will continue to lead the firm, according to the statement.

“We are excited to welcome Taylor Morrison into Berkshire’s portfolio,” Greg Abel, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway, said in a statement Sunday. “Over time, we expect to unify our site-built homebuilding operations into a combined platform enabling us to deliver the dream of homeownership to more Americans.”

This is the first multibillion-dollar acquisition under Abel, who took over Berkshire Hathaway earlier this year after Warren Buffett retired last year.  While investors have been satisfied with Abel’s command over the sprawling conglomerate, some have been hoping that a deal could support Berkshire’s shares, which fell 5.6% so far this year, largely due to Berkshire's lack of exposure to the AI bubble. The S&P 500 index gained 10.7% in the same period.

It is unclear if the deal signals that Abel believes the bottom for the US housing market is coming, or if Berkshire is buying a homebuilder during a brutal housing labor shortage, giving companies like Taylor Morrison operating leverage despite sky high mortgage rates. In any case, while millions of Americans have been hoping and praying that 8% mortgage will crash the housing market - which has never been more unaffordable - and allow them to enter at lower price, the investor with the biggest cash pile in history just bought a builder outright with cash from under the rug, as a three million home supply deficit clearly overrides the soaring cost of capital. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 17:40

Oil's Peace Dividend Is Real, But Normalization Is Not A Light Switch

Authored by Stephen Innes via The Dark Side Of The Boom,

• Markets can remove geopolitical risk premium far faster than physical energy systems can recover.

• The real post-war story may be strategic reserve rebuilding rather than simply falling oil prices.

• Canada's emerging Pacific LNG corridor highlights how Asia is increasingly seeking supply routes that bypass Hormuz altogether.

• The shift from efficiency to resilience could become one of the most important structural drivers of oil and LNG demand over the coming decade.

• The U.S.-Iran war may eventually end, but the infrastructure and energy-security investments it triggers could shape global markets for years to come.

Normalization Is Not A Light Switch

The market is increasingly behaving as though the U.S.-Iran war is ending and the oil market is about to return to normal. I suspect that view is only half right. The war may indeed be moving toward its final chapters, but the physical energy system does not heal as quickly as financial markets.

Traders can reprice risk in minutes, while tankers, inventories, insurance markets, refinery supply chains, LNG terminals, pipelines, export infrastructure, and strategic reserves move on an entirely different clock. That distinction may ultimately become one of the defining energy trades of the next 12 months because while markets are already beginning to price the end of the conflict, they are nowhere close to pricing what comes next.

Financial markets are discounting machines. They do not wait for events to occur; they attempt to price conditions months into the future. Once traders become convinced that the probability of a prolonged disruption to the Hormuz disruption is fading, the risk premium embedded in crude prices begins to evaporate immediately. Long positions accumulated during the height of the conflict are reduced. Hedges are unwound. Volatility sellers return. Systematic funds reverse positioning.

The market begins trading the world it expects to exist rather than the one that exists today. That process is already underway, which is why crude can fall sharply long before the physical market has actually recovered. But reopening Hormuz and normalizing the oil market are two entirely different events, and I think investors are increasingly at risk of conflating them.

Think of the global energy system as a giant circulatory network. Hormuz is one of its major arteries. Reopening the artery is critical, but it does not instantly restore the patient's health. During the conflict, the world did not simply lose supply. It consumed inventories as a substitute for supply. According to the IEA, global oil inventories suffered extraordinary drawdowns as the crisis unfolded.

March alone saw roughly 129 million barrels disappear from storage, followed by another 117 million barrel draw in April. Combined, nearly a quarter billion barrels were removed from global stockpiles in just two months. At the same time, global supply losses reached an estimated 12.8 million barrels per day, while Gulf production remained roughly 14.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. Those are not the statistics of a market that can simply flip a switch and return to equilibrium.

They are the statistics of a market that has been living off its emergency reserves.

That is why I believe many investors are focusing on the wrong milestone. The real question is not when Hormuz reopens. The real question is what happens after it reopens. Even if shipping resumes tomorrow, producers still need time to restore output. Tankers must be repositioned. Export schedules need rebuilding. Insurance markets require confidence that transit routes are secure. Refiners must recalibrate supply chains after months of operating under emergency conditions.

The entire logistical ecosystem needs time to regain rhythm. History consistently shows that restoring physical flows takes far longer than restoring access.

The tanker market itself offers an important clue. Many investors assume vessel traffic will immediately return to pre-war levels, but shipowners, insurers, cargo traders, and refiners are unlikely to behave with complete confidence simply because a ceasefire is announced. Months of elevated risk have changed behaviour. Insurance premiums remain elevated. Security assessments remain cautious. Commercial decisions tend to lag political headlines.

In fact, the first weeks following a reopening may actually produce temporary bottlenecks as vessels rush to move cargoes simultaneously. Freight rates could remain elevated even as crude prices fall, creating a market dynamic that appears contradictory on the surface but is entirely consistent with a system transitioning from crisis toward recovery. Markets may celebrate peace while the physical supply chain is still untangling months of disruption.

Yet even that may prove to be only the first chapter of the post-war story. The consensus view assumes that Asia will simply return to business as usual once the Hormuz reopens. I think that assumption misses the deeper lesson of this conflict. If there is one thing policymakers across Asia have learned over the past several months, it is that energy security can no longer be treated as a background issue.

Just as Europe never looked at Russian gas the same way after Ukraine, Asia may never look at its dependence on Middle Eastern energy the same way after Hormuz.

This is where I think the market is missing the next major theme entirely. Most investors are focused on falling oil prices, but the more important development may be what governments do after prices fall. The first phase of normalization is the removal of the geopolitical risk premium. The second phase is rebuilding commercial inventories. The third phase is strategic stockpiling.

The fourth phase is a multi-year energy-security buildout that could reshape energy demand and infrastructure investment across Asia for years to come. In other words, the market is pricing peace while potentially overlooking the structural consequences of the war itself.

For decades, governments optimized their energy systems for efficiency. Inventories were minimized. Storage costs were reduced. Supply chains were streamlined. The assumption was that global markets would always provide sufficient supply when needed. Hormuz shattered that assumption. Policymakers have now witnessed firsthand what happens when a single geopolitical chokepoint threatens the flow of energy to billions of people.

When governments experience a shock of that magnitude, they rarely conclude they need fewer reserves. They almost always conclude they need more.

China is perhaps the clearest example. Beijing was already expanding strategic petroleum reserves before the conflict, but the war has likely reinforced the urgency of that effort. Japan is expanding LNG storage capacity while reassessing its broader energy-security framework. South Korea is reviewing reserve policies and pursuing deeper regional energy cooperation. India continues expanding both crude storage and LNG import capacity.

Across Southeast Asia, governments are increasingly asking how many days of import protection they truly need in a world where energy security can disappear overnight.

But the story does not stop at inventories.

What makes this cycle different from previous oil shocks is that governments are increasingly responding not only by storing more energy but by redesigning how energy reaches them in the first place. The lesson many Asian policymakers appear to have taken from the U.S.-Iran war is that diversification is no longer simply an economic choice. It is becoming a national security requirement.

That realization is already beginning to reshape global energy infrastructure. For years, Canada possessed some of the world's largest natural gas reserves but lacked the infrastructure to export it efficiently to Asia. Western Canadian gas was largely trapped by geography, forced to flow south into North America rather than west across the Pacific. Today, that is changing.

The completion of Coastal GasLink and the launch of LNG Canada on British Columbia's Pacific Coast have created a direct energy corridor linking the Montney shale basin to Asian consumers. Additional projects such as Cedar LNG, Woodfibre LNG, and Ksi Lisims LNG could substantially expand Canada's export capacity over the coming decade.

The significance extends well beyond supply growth. A cargo leaving Kitimat reaches North Asia faster than many competing export routes and, more importantly, bypasses Hormuz entirely. For buyers in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Thailand, and Southeast Asia, that is becoming a strategic advantage rather than merely a logistical one. The market keeps asking when Middle Eastern supply returns. Policymakers are increasingly asking how to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern supply altogether.

Viewed through that lens, the post-war story is no longer simply about rebuilding inventories. It is about building redundancy. China is expanding storage. Japan is expanding LNG infrastructure. South Korea is strengthening energy-security partnerships. India is increasing import flexibility. Canada is building export capacity. Utilities across Asia are locking in longer-term supply agreements. The common thread is resilience.

In many respects, this resembles what happened after the 1973 oil embargo. The crisis itself eventually faded, but the infrastructure decisions it triggered lasted for decades. Strategic petroleum reserves were created. Pipelines were built. Storage facilities expanded. Import routes diversified. Energy policy changed permanently. The same process may now be unfolding across Asia.

The U.S.-Iran war may eventually fade from the headlines, but the infrastructure investments it has triggered could shape global energy flows for the next generation.

The result is that the next source of oil and gas demand may not come from consumers driving more or factories producing more. It may come from governments buying more. Every barrel that enters a strategic reserve is a barrel removed from the spot market. Every LNG cargo redirected to storage is unavailable for immediate consumption.

Viewed through that lens, reopening Hormuz may not immediately trigger the inventory rebuild many traders expect because governments themselves could become among the largest buyers in the market. The same countries that spent the war drawing down inventories may now spend years rebuilding and expanding them.

The LNG side of the equation may be even more significant. Unlike crude oil, LNG inventories are generally smaller and less flexible. Many Asian economies maintain relatively limited emergency gas reserves. The experience of both the European gas crisis and the disruption in Hormuz has accelerated discussions around strategic LNG storage, additional regasification terminals, expanded reserve facilities, diversified import infrastructure, and longer-term supply agreements.

The conversation is no longer simply about securing the cheapest molecule. It is increasingly about securing the most reliable one.

There is another layer that markets may be overlooking. The coming decade is expected to see enormous growth in electricity demand driven by AI infrastructure, data centres, semiconductor manufacturing, and digital industrialization. Across much of Asia, LNG is expected to remain a critical bridge fuel supporting that expansion. Governments are not merely trying to secure energy for today's economy. They are increasingly trying to secure energy for tomorrow's AI economy.

Strategic stockpiling, infrastructure expansion, and structural demand growth may soon be pointing in the same direction.

This is why I remain cautious about the simplistic view that oil will simply collapse back to pre-war levels and stay there. Yes, the geopolitical risk premium can disappear quickly. Yes, tanker traffic can improve. Yes, physical flows can recover.

But simultaneously, inventories must be rebuilt, strategic reserves expanded, LNG security frameworks strengthened, storage facilities constructed, pipelines developed, export routes diversified, and governments across Asia will seek redundancy where previously they sought efficiency. The irony is that the market is currently celebrating the potential end of the war while largely ignoring the structural demand it may have created.

Ultimately, I think the market is still looking at this through a trader's lens, when it should increasingly look at it through a policymaker's lens. Traders see peace and immediately calculate how much risk premium can be extracted from the barrel. Governments see the same peace and begin calculating how many additional barrels and LNG cargoes they need to secure before the next crisis arrives. Those are not the same calculations, and they point toward very different futures.

That is why I believe the oil market is entering a far more complicated phase than many investors appreciate. The peace dividend may arrive quickly. The normalization dividend may take months. But the energy-security dividend, driven by reserve rebuilding, strategic stockpiling, LNG infrastructure expansion, pipeline development, and a region-wide reassessment of supply vulnerability, may take years to fully unfold.

By the time markets recognize that distinction, the next great source of energy demand may already be underway. The U.S.-Iran war may be ending, but the race to secure energy for the next one may just be beginning.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 17:30

What Are Americans Most Worried About?

Statista’s Consumer Insights survey has been tracking which issues adults in the United States consider to be the most important in the country right now, and how they have shifted over time.

The following chart, via Statista's Anna Fleck, provides just a snapshot of these, listing the eight most cited concerns out of a possible 20 options, in the most recent survey wave as well as in the survey wave at the start of the pandemic.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Where health and social security came first in the earlier iteration, likely in reference to Covid-19, it had dropped by eight percentage points by 2025/26.

In the meantime, inflation and the cost of living has risen from third position to first position (+9 p.p).

Other notable changes include a drop in the share of people citing immigration in the latest wave and an increase in the share of people picking housing (previously in rank 14 at 22 percent).

Six of the eight most recent most pressing issues are social, with the sole environmental topic of climate change having dropped off the list, coming in 14th position with 23 percent of respondents picking it, following issues such as education (rank nine), corruption (rank 10) and food and water security (rank 11).

As this chart shows, poverty is now on the minds of more U.S. adults, at least more imminently, than before.

Where it had previously tied in 9th position with education in 2019/20 with a 32 percent share of respondents picking it as one the most important issues facing the country at that time, the share had risen to 33 percent in the latest survey wave.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 16:55

Fighting While Talking, Horses And Security

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Fighting While Talking, Horses, and Security

Some quick updates on recent themes. The latest on Iran is front and center, and if you missed this week’s Around the World, it is worth a look. Not just an Iran update, but we also cover Cuba, Russia/Ukraine, the China Summit, and Nigeria (I certainly need to get more up to speed on Africa). We will examine Universal Basic Income and the Job Market in the section we have decided to label Horses. While it feels like we’ve been talking about ProSec in one shape or form for well over a year (because we have), rather than getting “long in the tooth” it is just starting to get traction.

Fighting While Talking

The definition of “ceasefire” is what both sides make of it. It is easy to think of a “ceasefire” as being as simple as both sides “cease firing” at each other, but that is not how it works in the real world.

The concept of continuing attacks (typically but not always limited in scope) while discussing agreements has gone on since people first started picking up rocks and throwing them at each other. From a U.S. perspective, it was an explicit policy of Nixon and Kissinger when dealing with North Vietnam. Negotiate in Paris. Bomb away in Vietnam.

As the much anticipated announcement after Friday’s “situation room” meeting failed to materialize, we are reading of reports of Iran attacking U.S. bases in Kuwait. This, of course, from an Iranian perspective, is in response to some U.S. attacks last week in Bandar Abbas and in the Strait of Hormuz.

We can only assume negotiations are ongoing, as neither side seems prepared to go back to a higher level of military activity, so this is merely both sides reminding the other that they could go that way, if they wanted to.

Also, from our GIG, it has become very clear that the U.S. blockade of the Strait surprised Iran and created leverage that the initial military attacks had not.

The only thing I can say about the negotiations is that I think most people have become, at best, tired of the endless stream of “we are close” announcements. We’ve lost track of how many times markets have rallied on such announcements (often, but not always in the form of social media posts). At worst, there is a cynicism growing that the announcements are merely political attention-seeking moments, coupled with an “opportunity” to trade. The number of people who immediately search the prediction market sites, or look for large trades in oil or stock futures to see if there is some sort of “confirmation” that the headline is new and real, is almost staggering.

While the front end of the crude oil futures market (which is not the same contract as when this war started) responds very well to peace deal announcements, the longer end of the curve is not as responsive. I’ve been picking the January 2027 WTI contract because it is WTI (so it benefits from U.S. energy independence and it is 2027). It is still $77. Below its high of $83, but not much below. It didn’t get above $77 for the first time until late March. This was below $60 prior to the war. I guess this is a long-winded way of saying Higher For Longer On Energy Prices.

The consensus is that we will not see serious re-escalation, but both the U.S. and Iran seem to be having difficulty in framing a deal as a victory (Iran, because it has been hit hard, and the U.S. because we seem to have moved a long way from “unconditional surrender”).

The one thing that I think is starting to sink in is that higher for longer on energy is real, even with a deal, and that is problematic for a world struggling with affordability.

Horses

What the heck are we talking about horses for? What do horses have to do with anything, let alone AI? We have seen commencement speeches where college graduates have booed the mention of AI. We had the rather unfortunate (in my opinion) term “lower value human capital” enter the lexicon. My editors cringe at some of the things I write and say, but wow!

Not surprisingly, we have seen many in the industry downplay the risks to jobs. Even some leaders who until recently had predicted job losses, especially for white-collar employees, reversed course and are now predicting hiring based on increased efficiencies.

I think the jury is still out on this. There are some examples that I’ve seen that seem to indicate the potential for employment growth.

• One story I’ve seen, but didn’t track down for the report is “AI’s ability to analyze X-rays has led to more radiologists.” Seems plausible and certainly fits the efficiency story (though there may be other reasons we have more radiologists).
• Another report that was circulated, and that I found on social media, discussed how the number of tellers in the U.S. rose even with the introduction of ATMs. You can find the post on Twitter by searching for AI ATM Tellers. This was passed around as an example of how people (tellers in this case) adapt to new technology and become more efficient. The reason I did not include a link to this idea is because I think it is quite flawed and did not feel like starting a fight. It did not normalize for a large growth in the number of people working in the U.S. during the phase that ATMs were rolled out, presumably creating greater need for banking. It didn’t discuss that during the first 20 years of the ATM, the GDP of the U.S. quintupled. It was also a period where suburbia grew. I would argue that if you controlled for the number of people who needed accounts, the increasing complexity of personal finances, and the shift in population, this probably more than accounts for why tellers didn’t fare as badly as initially feared with the introduction of ATMs. Anyway, I’ve ranted too much on this subject, but I think it is important that we think critically about what various technologies have or have not done for employment.

Buggy whip manufacturers. If you take an introductory business school class you will likely hear about the “plight” of buggy whip manufacturers.

A great business until the advent of the automobile. The automobile, over a relatively short period of time, destroyed this business. But the automobile was great! The automobile companies did spectacularly well! (Though many of the early, even well-known ones failed, but that is a concept for another day). The country did well as the automobile (and trucking) reshaped the economy for the better! Isn’t this the perfect example of how a new, efficient technology drives growth and jobs as a whole, even if some sectors lose?

• But what about the horses? According to Grok, there were over 25 million horses and mules in the U.S. around 1920. The “horses” were “employed” on farms and for urban transport. Recent estimates put the horse population at under 7 million today. Now, the horses that are alive today are mostly for recreation, sport, and breeding, rather than working. Far fewer horses today, but those horses that are around live the life of Riley compared to what their ancestors lived.
  • If AI is like what automobiles were to humans, we are in for a great ride!
  • If AI is like what automobiles were to horses, we could be in some trouble, though those left working should be in great shape!
    • I’m probably more in the first camp, but this technology seems very different (or maybe it just seems very different as it is applied directly in areas I know and deal with?). I don’t want to think that we might be the first population that is “creating our own extinction event,” but I have read too much sci-fi to keep that thought completely at bay.

In any case, if anyone reading this can even entertain these thoughts, you know that politicians will try to find ways to capture that animosity. My assumption is that the “control group” of people reading the T-Report are all exploring AI. All trying to figure out how to use it. Many, including myself and Academy Securities, are benefiting from the growth of AI. Data centers, AI, and chips are a core part of ProSec but I can see the rising angst playing out in real time.

Politicians interfering with the industry may become a risk to growth and profitability. It isn’t there yet (this admin is extremely supportive of not just the AI growth, but also the electricity generation and transmission to power the industry). Which might be the perfect time to bring up this little section, that doesn’t quite fit into this theme directly, but seems relevant.

• Keep an eye on South Korea. We are seeing a wave of “AI bonuses” being paid. This is being paid to employees of companies who are doing well because of the boom in AI and data centers (chips, memory etc.). That is the “norm” in the U.S. but sounds like it is unusual in South Korea. The stories probably wouldn’t have attracted my attention at all, since it is so logical from a U.S. perspective, but this is a country that just a couple of weeks ago had started to see political figures discuss paying the citizens from the profits/tax revenues generated by the AI success story – which seems like a potential “slippery slope” way of introducing Universal Basic Income (UBI). Or I guess if you are an advocate of UBI, the potential launching point for a much-needed wealth redistribution.

I recently spoke at a conference for risk management (primarily for large financial institutions). I discussed with the conference organizer the number of AI, cyber, and agentic AI presentations. It seemed like about half the conference was focused on those subjects. The organizer confirmed that was correct and was about the same as the prior year, when they really made a big effort to steer the conference in that direction. What was interesting though was that in 2025, the audience was enthusiastic to learn so much. That it was a relatively new area and the topic resonated. While they have yet to receive final feedback from this year’s conference, the initial feedback was that people wanted case studies and examples, not just high-level perspectives. Everyone knows and is trying to use these technologies (at work and at home). No one needs to be told how important they are. How rapidly they are growing. Just take one look at the stock market and you know that. What people wanted to know this year is how the heck are people using them and what is their experience! I found that interesting and it resonates with me, as I’m probably in that same camp. Some successes mixed with sometimes wondering why I bothered trying AI in the first place. I don’t know what this shift means, but it is interesting (and may explain why AI trainers are getting paid boatloads of money ).

If this seems a little more like thinking out loud than having a strong opinion, that’s because it probably is. But thinking out loud seems like a good way to get our hands around this amazing evolution.

Going Production for Security

We finished a great week of meetings in London this past week. I heard a little bit too much about “defense” bonds and a little too little about ProSec bonds for my tastes (Mike Rodriguez, Academy’s Head of Sustainable Finance, has a great deck on the concept). I’m just kidding about that (not the deck, which is great, but that I heard too much about defense bonds).

Europe is shifting towards security and resiliency rapidly

We could drone on and on about how much things have changed in Europe’s positioning on ESG and how quickly they are moving to something that aligns itself with ProSec but it is the end of a short, but tricky week in markets, so we won’t belabor you with details.
What we will do, instead, is present what Treasury Secretary Bessent (@SecScottBessent) put out in a tweet on Friday (the bold is my handiwork):

• For too long, our political class treated efficiency as a substitute for resilience, and consumption as a measure of prosperity.
• Trade policy, industrial capacity, and national security are inseparable. And to allow foreign dependencies to degrade any one of those domains is to allow them to define America’s future. Under @POTUS’ leadership, we are rebuilding domestic production to restore American sovereignty.

I admit there is a lot of politics in his statement, more than I would like, but it does highlight and encapsulate more of what we have been saying and writing about on ProSec.

I do think there is a LOT MORE ROOM to work with close allies and neighbors than this statement hints at, but that will evolve over time, even with the current administration.

In a fireside chat with the CEO of a player in the energy industry, I latched on to the concept that Canada of all places, might be given one of the rare opportunities for a “do over.” Say 15 years ago, both the U.S. and Canada were well positioned to grow their LNG business. The U.S. did so and is reaping the dividends from that! Canada got mired in regulation and has been pretty much left in the starting blocks. But now, with the world looking for alternatives to the Middle East, Canada has been given another chance to get out of the gate and try to take advantage of the shifting needs.

While I already chafe, a little, at the U.S. admin’s rhetoric that comes across as America Only, that is not how Europe sees it. In part Europe doesn’t have an abundance of all the natural resources they might need, so they will be forced to work with trusted partners. The U.S. can and will be a part of that, but semantics and talking points do matter over time. New alliances will be formed or solidified and there is a great opportunity, across the globe, to join in the ProSec theme (I almost said movement, because that is a bit political, but…)

• Here is a link to ProSec 2026 if you haven’t seen it or want a refresh.
• If you have interest in seeing our thoughts on the framework for a ProSec Bond, feel free to reach out to your coverage officer at Academy.

We are in the early stages of shifting from one stable order (rules-based with China flaunting the rules, to another, with more (but not total) independence). See Molotov Cocktails.

Bottom Line

This coming week we should:

• Learn more about the status between the U.S. and Iran. In either case, I think the higher for longer theme for energy prices will sink in and start to price itself into markets even more than it already has.
• Get some more clarity on the job market (within the kind of insanely large margins for error that we just somehow learn to deal with).

I’m sticking with the view that we have a tale of two economies: the AI, data center, and chip economy vs the Affordability economy. They are intertwined, with some degree of overlap.

• The AI/Data Center/Chip economy is okay for jobs for now (the building of data centers and the infrastructure to support them creates a lot of jobs). It has been GREAT for stock market indices.
• The affordability economy is a drag on some consumption and confidence. This part of the economy is sucking more households into it, here and abroad, and that is not good.

Bond yields have dropped in the past week, which has been good and in no small part has been helped by the ongoing barrage of “open the Strait” headlines.

I expect that to reverse course as we are near the bottom end of the range on 10s and I am now fully in the camp that 10s hit 5% before they hit 4%. Any effort to cut rates by the Fed, given the current state of economic data, would likely end up in higher long-end bond yields, because it is increasingly difficult to come up with a narrative to support a cut. That is a very different view than I had before the war started (and some big headline NFP job numbers were released).

It would be nice to get some resolution with Iran so we can move back to all the usual uncertainties like spending, jobs, AI, inflation, the Fed, etc.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 16:20

The New Yorker Thinks Patriotism Is "Problematic"

In a meandering essay name dropping every dress-to-impress academic figure from Voltaire to Alexis de Tocqueville to Howard Zinn, The New Yorker has set out on a quest to explain how the progressive left can essentially despise the country they live in the name of social justice, while also adopting the perks of "patriotism" so they can own the Chuds.

The publication throws around some curious stats and asserts that patriotism is on the decline because, as they argue, patriotism today requires people to be blind to the injustices of the past.  They note:

"...We seem to be in a down moment. A Gallup poll found that, in the past dozen years, the percentage of people in the U.S. who say that they’re “extremely proud to be American” has plunged by sixteen points. A recent Harris poll noted that roughly four in ten Americans have considered relocating outside the country, with younger Americans even more inclined..."

"Last May, Newsweek published an article with the melancholy headline “Why Dual Citizenship Is the New American Dream.” Some commentators ascribe this to financial prudence, but the trend dates back at least to 2016 and the election of Donald Trump..."

Trump, the ever present and useful bogeyman, is obviously to blame.  The New Yorker, of course, glosses over the fact that the majority of the people who feel "less patriotic" in that Gallup poll are Democrats who are highly indoctrinated by establishment media to obsess over "historical injustices."  The outlet applauds the decline, in a way.  It's rooted in the same old DEI and 1619 Project talking points that the woke media has been peddling for over a decade. 

"Patriotism just isn’t cool anymore. Wokeness, having rightly called attention to racial and gender injustices long endemic to American life, helped chill the left’s admiration for the nation..."    

"Ours is a complicated history, made more tortuous by race. Some five hundred Indigenous nations lived here before the first enslaved Africans arrived, in 1619 - a year before the first Pilgrims. That, too, is American history, along with Reconstruction, Jim Crow, segregation, the Great Migration, Black anger, Black humor, and Black culture. This isn’t wokeness; it’s fact. 

Trump’s America has the virtue of simplicity: no initial divisions; no loyalists and patriots, or Native peoples and settlers, or Federalists and Anti-Federalists. He’s not bothered by labor unrest, unfair imprisonment, white-nationalist undercurrents..."

Yes, it is wokeness, and The New Yorker cites some "facts" but as usual they don't tell the whole truth.  It's an approximation of history (using cherry-picked facts) based on the political left's own convenient narratives.  For example, they make no mention of the fact that some of the very first slave owners in US history were black.  Nor do they mention that there were at least 3775 black slave owners in the American South in 1830 and up to 6000 black slave owners by the time the Civil War kicked off. 

They don't mention that the vast majority of the African slaves present in the American colonies were captured and sold by other Africans.  No, leftists can't handle that kind of truth, or they deny it, which is why they can never be patriots.

And why not talk about the uglier side of the indigenous tribes, many of which brutalized and enslaved each other long before the first white man ever set foot on the continent?  Why not mention the rape, genocide and cannibalism common among these groups?  Why not mention that when white settlers arrived, many American Indian tribes sought the protection of Europeans from other indians?

Well, The New Yorker doesn't talk about that because these facts undermine the entire foundation of far-left propaganda:  That the white man is the cause of all the world's problems. 

In reality, every group of people and every race around the globe has committed brutal acts of conquest and slavery.  No one is innocent.  Everyone is guilty.  White people were just the first group to put an end to it all.

But what is patriotism?  That is the question The New Yorker seems to ponder, though what they are really asking is:  "Who gets to define patriotism?"  This is the only thing leftists care about, because the power to define is the power to control.  And they want to control everything.  

For example, the publication harps on once again about the "horrors" of January 6th, and labels it a criminal attack masquerading as an act of patriotism.  Again, no mention of the numerous federal agents planted in the crowd to lead protesters into the building, and no mention of the Capitol Police using tear gas and rubber bullets to anger the crowd into violence. 

"What to my mind isn’t patriotism, though it was sometimes couched as such, was the behavior of the assembled throng that, on January 6, 2021, stormed the U.S. Capitol to prevent Congress from certifying the 2020 election. Awful as it was, it felt less like an insurrection than like an ugly mob bent on destruction and self-display..."

It's interesting that The New Yorker has such a distaste for the J6 "mob" while lavishing BLM with praise and defending the riots as a proud display of righteous rebellion.  Those mobs were far more destructive and killed numerous people.  All the J6 crowd did was break some windows, walk into the Capitol Building and leave an hour later.      

The New Yorker's examination is not nuanced or complex at all.  It pretends to be, but it is incredibly simplistic:  If you are a hardcore conservative, a traditionalist, a nationalist, an advocate for controlled immigration, an opponent of DEI, or a MAGA voter, you are "not a patriot."  Why?  Because the left says so.  Because they want to dictate the terms of patriotism and if they can't, then patriotism has to go.        

Traditionally in America it has always been the real patriots that get to define what patriotism is.  It's about the people who want to preserve America's founding principles, not rewrite them or erase them in the name of "modernity."  The people who understand that some values are eternal and remain relevant regardless of technological progress or the tides of political correctness. 

It's about loving one's country, not merely tolerating it until you can tear it down in the name of building something you think is better.     

Compared to America's overall accomplishments, the perceived historical "missteps" are meaningless.  They do not matter.  Slavery is irrelevant.  The wars against the native tribes and the "stolen land" are irrelevant.  Jim Crow is irrelevant. Leftists can stew in these past events all they like, but that's not going to win them any points in determining America's future path.    

And this is a reality that woke adherents will never accept, because they are not patriots, they are deconstructionists.  Their goal is to dismantle the western world, and America by extension.  Which means, they conveniently turn a microscope on the portions of US history that are considered oppressive by today's standards and harness those examples as a weapon to attack and dismantle the country as it exists now.  The US is a country increasingly looking to pull back from the brink of progressive revisionism, and they don't like that.

So, activist entities like The New Yorker turn to gaslighting.  For them, history is nothing more than a Molotov Cocktail.  They burn down the past in order to dictate the present.  They clamor to co-opt the American ideal, but they don't actually care about it.  They want to wear it as a skin suit while they dismantle it.  True patriotism is beyond their comprehension.  

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 15:45

America's LNG Boom Is Real - But China Is Planning Beyond It

Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via OilPrice.com,

• The Iran war and Hormuz disruption have turbocharged U.S. LNG exports, giving Washington a major short-term energy dominance boost as Asia and Europe scramble for alternative supply.

• China, however, enters the crisis from a position of greater energy resilience after years of investment in domestic production.

• The U.S. still has a major long-term opportunity, but sustaining dominance will require turning crisis-driven demand into lasting partnerships.

The Iran war has handed the United States a rare opportunity: a new dawn of energy dominance in an increasingly fractured world. With coordinated US-Israeli strikes disrupting the Strait of Hormuz from late February, roughly 20% of global LNG supply has been stripped from the market since early March. Prices have surged across Asia and Europe. And into that vacuum, American gas has flowed.

The numbers speak for themselves. US LNG exports to Asia jumped sharply in April, with nearly a quarter of all American cargoes heading to a region that simply cannot afford to go dark. Deals are being signed, pipelines planned, and $100 billion in private investment is pouring into liquefaction plants and terminals, putting the US on a trajectory toward 220 MTPA of export capacity within five years. The administration's energy dominance agenda, backed by promises to streamline permitting, has given producers a powerful political tailwind and reassured global buyers seeking reliability. Washington's case for American LNG has never been easier to make.

But dominance built on a crisis is not the same as dominance built on trust. And there is a competitor watching this moment very carefully.

China entered this crisis in a structurally different position. Two decades of sustained investment in domestic energy production, spanning generation, storage, and distribution, have left Beijing considerably less exposed to the supply shocks rattling Western and Asian markets alike. Its economy has not been immune, but it has been buffered. That resilience has not gone unnoticed by governments scrambling to explain surging energy bills to their populations. While the US capitalises on the immediate demand surge, China is quietly accumulating something more durable: the perception of strategic foresight.

Yet beneath the boom lies a fault line. The conflict has been a short-term windfall for American producers; cash is flowing and the geopolitical case for US LNG writes itself. But the longer the crisis persists, the more urgently governments around the world will prioritise the same fundamental objective: never being held hostage to a single chokepoint again. The Hormuz disruption has concentrated minds in a way that years of energy dialogues have never quite managed. Countries across Asia and Europe are now accelerating plans to diversify supply sources, build strategic reserves, and develop domestic generation capacity across every available technology. The goal is insulation from the kind of shock this war has delivered, and that shift in priorities will outlast the conflict itself, because the memory of this vulnerability will not fade quickly.

This does not mean the window for American gas has closed. The transition to more resilient, independent energy systems will take decades, and reliable LNG from a powerful economy is precisely what energy-hungry Asian economies need throughout that journey. The US has the reserves, the infrastructure, the financial markets, and the geopolitical credibility that no other supplier can currently match. But Washington cannot afford to mistake a crisis-driven demand surge for a permanent structural advantage, because what buyers are ultimately building toward is a system in which no single disruption, whether in the Strait of Hormuz or anywhere else, can send their economies into shock again. The US needs to be architected into that system as an indispensable partner, not treated as an emergency option.

That requires more than competitive pricing and export capacity. It requires the kind of long-term supply relationships, infrastructure partnerships, and government-to-government commitments that turn a transaction into a dependency, the good kind, built on reliability rather than vulnerability. It requires Washington to show up as a strategic partner invested in the energy security of its buyers. And it requires the Iran conflict to reach a resolution that restores stability to global flows, because sustained disruption ultimately accelerates the very diversification strategies that could reduce the world's reliance on any single fuel source.

That is why forums like Gastech matter far beyond the conference floor. At Gastech 2025 in Milan, a high-profile US delegation led by Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum used the event to demonstrate Washington's commitment to the global market and deepen long-term partnerships with European buyers. This September, the same strategic imperative shifts to Asia, as Gastech convenes ministers, industry CEOs, and technology leaders in Bangkok around the urgent supply security and resilience priorities now defining the global energy agenda. Bangkok demands the same level of engagement, but with even greater stakes. Positioned at the heart of the world's fastest-growing demand region, it is where the contracts signed today will shape the architecture of energy relationships for the next decade. It is where the US can arrive not only as the world's largest LNG exporter, but as the partner that helped Asia build the resilient, diversified, and secure energy systems its economies need, with American technology, American capital, and American gas at the centre of that architecture.

The use of energy as a diplomatic instrument, as a foundation for alliances and a signal of long-term intent, has already demonstrated its capacity to stabilise relationships and strengthen the position of reliable partners. But leverage only holds if buyers believe the relationship will endure beyond the current emergency. And that is ultimately what is being decided right now: whether the world organises its energy future around American reliability, or looks elsewhere for the security guarantees it needs.

American energy dominance is real, and the Iran war has made that case powerfully. But dominance has to be earned continuously, through the infrastructure being built, the contracts being signed, and the diplomatic relationships being deepened, conference room by conference room, deal by deal. The window is open. What matters now is how Washington chooses to use it.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 14:00

Did Iran Get Its Hands On A US Stealth Missile? JASSM-ER Wreckage Sparks Reverse-Engineering Fears

The U.S. committed nearly its entire stockpile of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles to the military campaign against Iran and has fired at least 1,000 of these long-range, stealthy, precision cruise missiles to hit high-value IRGC targets.

One of the unavoidable risks of deploying advanced weapons, such as the JASSM-ER, is that unexploded or partially intact systems can fall into enemy hands, allowing adversaries to study U.S. technology, refine countermeasures, and accelerate the development of copycat versions.

A new report from Army Recognition, citing defense journalist Babak Taghvaee, claims Iran has recovered wreckage from a JASSM-ER near Arak, potentially giving Tehran access to fragments of the missile.

"The recovered debris reportedly includes composite airframe sections, structural components, propulsion fragments, and possible avionics elements that could reveal insights into stealth construction, fuel-efficient propulsion, and survivability design," according to the military blog.

Army Recognition cited images posted on X by Taghvaee showing what is described as badly damaged JASSM-ER wreckage recovered in Iran. The missile appears largely intact and possibly unexploded, which, if confirmed, would give Tehran higher-value intelligence on the advanced missile.

The number of AGM-158B JASSM-ER stand-off weapons (stealth cruise missiles) employed by the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy during the recent war in Iran was enormous. These missiles were used so extensively that debris and remains of them can now be found across various parts of… pic.twitter.com/NKzhR453mK

— Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) May 27, 2026

This incident is reminiscent of a similar one in 2011, when Iran captured a U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel stealth spy drone and claimed to have reverse-engineered the aircraft. Tehran later displayed and tested drones modeled on the RQ-170, including the Shahed-171/Simorgh and Shahed-191/Saegheh families.

Reuters reported in 2014 that Iran claimed a domestically built copy of the RQ-170 had flown.

Today, Iran is one of the leading manufacturers of suicide Shahed drones (besides Russia and Ukraine), which have wreaked havoc on U.S. military bases and allied countries. The U.S. is also ramping up its version of these drones called "Lucas."

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 13:25

Manufacturing Consent For Trump's Invasion Of Cuba

Authored by Natasha Bannan via Common Dreams,

Yves here. I wish I had the time to research and unpack more clearly is the set of legal theories the US is abusing to prosecute Nicholas Maduro and his wife and now to justify the arrest of Raul Castro and the conquest of Cuba. The US seriously takes the position that we can impose strained invocations of US rules against terrorism and engage in extrajudicial seizures, as in kidnapping.

The article below describes how we are now putting a lot of weight on the thin reed of enforcing Batista-era property rights.

These days, most of Havana's streets are fairly empty of cars, but full of people walking or riding bicycles, electric bikes, electric "tricycles," or scooters. Trash has piled up on most corners where regular pick-up has become impossible given that the garbage trucks have no gasoline. The average conversation starts off with comparing who's gone the longest without electricity.

The sympathy flows, as you exchange stories of what else you are going without: water, gas, food, medicine, transportation. People list the family members they haven't been able to see and the medical appointments they've missed. Inevitably, someone will say better days are coming - "because they have to" - and to keep moving forward.

This week alone, the US Department of Justice indicted Raul Castro, the former head of state, who's now 94 years old and largely out of public life. In addition, the Supreme Court gave a green light to Cuban-American-owned companies with property claims in Cuba from 67 years ago to sue tourist industry actors who "profited" from that land.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio continues to grow more and more publicly agitated with Cuba's refusal to bow to his demands, and Trump's consistent incoherence shows an absolute lack of any clear policy position towards Cuba, aside from one that may economically benefit him and/or his family.

The indictment of Castro is a page taken from Trump's playbook on Venezuela from earlier this year. There, the administration indicted a sitting head of state, Nicolas Maduro, as a legal pretext for a military intervention, which was labelled an "emergency" and thus not an act of war that would require Congressional approval.

The administration staged a geopolitical coup d'etat involving international kidnapping, acts of war in plain violation of international law and the U.N. Charter, and then imprisoned that leader as a message to the world of what happens to those who defy US interests. Such indictments serve as purportedly fixed legal fictions for shifting political pretexts.

In Venezuela it was supposedly the state's support for criminal enterprises and gangs, which was the justification for the Trump administration's stated reason for the extrajudicial killing of nearly 200 civilians in piracy actions in the Caribbean. Once Maduro was kidnapped and jailed, the administration has stopped talking gangs and narcotrafficking rings.

In Cuba, the Justice Department's indictment of Raul Castro is a clear response to the political forces that commanded it. As the island nation is not complying rapidly enough to the changes demanded by Washington, the administration has escalated its threats, military preparations, and legal actions, albeit largely symbolic in nature.

Rubio's Escalation Of Threats As Campaign Messaging

For decades, Marco Rubio has pushed for privately what the Cuban-American community in south Florida has not achieved in nearly 70 years: to run Cuba's political and economic system remotely from Miami and Washington.

These remote "owners" of Cuba have driven and financed Rubio's political career, leading to this moment where he is adamantly though unsuccessfully trying to sell the American public that Cuba is a national security threat while simultaneously telling Cubans that their government is too weak to protect them.

That inherent contradiction and incoherence, long the basis of US policy towards Cuba, have never been more dangerous than at this moment when Rubio's rage and blind ambition to cause widespread destruction is bolstered by Trump's monarchical goals.

The contradictory discourse is present in nearly every aspect of Cuba policy. Just this week, Rubio issued an Orwellian statement in response to the ICE arrest of Adys Lastres Morera, the sister of the head of GAESA, a Cuban entity that is connected to large swaths of the Cuban economy. Rubio was right to point out that "[f]or far too long, the family members of terrorist organizations, repressive anti-American regimes and other bad actors . . . have been given a free pass to enjoy the privileges of living in the United States," but the United States also has a long tradition of granting sanctuary to terrorists, dictators, and war criminals.

In particular, Latin American leaders, generals, and intelligence operatives that have long done the US bidding in propping up violent regimes have been granted refuge in south Florida, the home of Rubio and other elected officials who have promoted violence over diplomacy.

Yet what makes international cooperation, collaboration, and survival possible is not just insisting upon respect for international law and human rights by all governments, but strengthening their ability to do so through dialogue and diplomacy. The Trump-Rubio administration has clearly not been serious about using diplomacy to solve global conflicts, and that holds true in Cuba as well.

The administration has tried to identify potential "opposition" in Cuba or political leaders it can "work with" like Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela. Real US diplomacy looks quite different. Twelve years ago, it brought to Cuba a boom of economic activity, a thriving private sector, better financed public institutions, and riveting cultural exchanges for over a million US residents who found in Cuba a rich cultural, musical, artistic, and academic partner.

Trump and Rubio, though they might articulate the same goals, have different ulterior motives. Their goal is not, and has never been, economic opportunity for Cubans. Instead, they want an economic boon for Cuban-Americans aching to exert political and economic control over a land many have never even visited.

Although Florida no longer plays a significant electoral role in US-Cuba policy, Rubio's recent video talking to the Cuban people - and his messaging in general in escalating threats and aggression towards Cuba - is clearly intended to rally his base. What has caused widespread anxiety and fear among millions in Cuba has nevertheless excited his political base in south Florida.

Inside Cuba

These days in Havana, Cubans are experiencing a duality that has existed for generations who have lived under the threat of US military aggression and the daily reality of economic warfare. Cubans are exhausted. They are increasingly anxious and have reached the bottom of the well of hope. There is a saying that the last thing you lose is hope, meaning it is what you hold on to until the very end. Cubans are at the very end of their ability to see a hopeful future.

I get asked questions daily. Should I take my kids to a shelter? Will the United States bomb Havana? Where is it safe to go? Why don't US citizens stop their government?

Cubans are experts at survival, and that's exactly what they continue to do. As US Southern Command sends the aircraft carrier Nimitz into Caribbean waters, Cubans continue to carry on with daily life like they have done decade after decade. Most days, those around me look for an electric tricycle to take them to work or their child to school or have added a child seat to their bicycles. Cars that run on gasoline have become what one of my friends calls "garage adornments."

Given the daily threat of military intervention and the four-month long oil blockade, activities like sleep have become a luxury. Many families cook or wash clothes at 3:00 a.m. when they get 1-2 hours of electricity. My friend sleeps on the floor with her son near the front door where air drafts can keep them cool in the sweltering heat and humidity. Most of us go without water for days at a time because lack of electricity makes pumping and distributing water impossible.

Another dear friend went 35 days with no water while she, her mother, and her toddler spent weeks traveling from house to house bathing and washing clothes. Cooking and cleaning become infinitely more difficult with no water, gas, or electricity. Some daycare centers use coal to cook lunch for undernourished children.

While we live under the perpetual threat of US military aggression, children continue to play in the street with sticks and deflated balls, families continue to find ways to get to work and buy food, and the deep spiritual and religious traditions that sustain many Cubans are turned to over and over again. War has a name and a face.

It's not just a vague "government." Here there are millions of people who owe the United States nothing and instead have only demanded to live in peace, in their homeland, however flawed it may be.

Originally published at .

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 12:50

Congress Quietly Moves To Intertwine US, Israeli Militaries On Formal Level

There are some stealth moves afoot by the Trump administration and Congress, which are poised to formalize the long-standing close US-Israel relationship, on the level of a formal defense pact.

A sweeping new legislative proposal in Congress is moving to more deeply intertwine and combine the two countries' military arsenals. The House of Representatives' version of the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) released this past week contains Section 224, devoted to military integration with the name "United States-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative."

The section lays out that the Untied States has already historically contributed an inflation-adjusted $200 billion in military assistance to Israel since 1948, and seeks to more permanently solidify this relationship on a legal basis.

Responsible Statecraft has reported that "Section 224 lays the groundwork for bilateral research and development, co-production of weapons, joint ventures, licensing agreements, and seemingly every manner of US-Israeli military-industrial complex cooperation."

via Flickr

The report said the new congressional provision "would greatly expand coordination to seemingly every area of defense tech, including AI, quantum, autonomous systems, directed energy, cyber, biotech" while further proposing "network integration" and "data fusion."

Crucially, this would in effect combine both countries' military data, and further formalize intelligence-sharing. While all of these things already happen to a large degree, it is at the moment still subject to the policies and direction of whatever US administration happens to be in office.

If passed, the new legislation would make this automatic and basically irreversible - again, akin to a formal defense pact or treaty.

What follows is some fuller reporting from Responsible Statecraft, which warms that "the result could well be a US political system even more susceptible to the whims of an Israeli government that seemingly has no qualms about drawing the US into military conflicts in the Middle East"...

Section 224 lays the groundwork for bilateral research and development, co-production of weapons, joint ventures, licensing agreements, and seemingly every manner of US-Israeli military-industrial complex cooperation. The US and Israel already work together heavily on missile defense, but this provision would greatly expand coordination to seemingly every area of defense tech, including AI, quantum, autonomous systems, directed energy, cyber, biotech, and many more. It also proposes “network integration” and “data fusion.” In other words, the US military’s data could soon be the Israeli military’s data.

If fully enacted, this proposal would provide a higher level of military-industrial integration than the US has with any other country in the world. To be sure, the US has worked closely with its NATO partners on co-production and shared supply chains, most notably via the Defence Production Action Plan. And, as the number one arms dealer in the world, the US provides weapons to militaries across the globe. But that is mostly a one-way street, with the US providing weapons to foreign buyers who only occasionally make parts for those weapons themselves, as in the case of the F-35’s global supply chain.

Section 224 would be a different beast entirely. It would fuse the US and Israeli defense sectors in multiple areas vital to the battlefields of the future, like autonomous systems and cyber. It would also bring extraordinary Israeli influence to the US beyond what it already has through the Israel lobby and its robust network of social media influencers. It would give the Israeli government the opportunity to greatly expand one of the most powerful levers of influence in US politics: jobs in the US By expanding or starting new co-production facilities like it already has in Mississippi and Arkansas, the Israeli government could boast of providing jobs on US soil, thereby securing allies among members of Congress who represent the districts where those jobs lie.

The ambitious scheme is unlikely to be met with much resistance from either the mainstream of the Republican or Democratic parties; however, the Dems have tended to vote against giving President Trump free reign regarding Operation Epic Fury. War Powers votes tend to break down along party lines, with the GOP typically shooting down these efforts of Congressional oversight.

But this could sail through with little or nothing in the way of public debate, or even knowledge, at all. It means future generations of taxpayers could find themselves even more deeply on the hook for the permanent defense of a foreign nation.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 12:15

Gold Waits As Global Markets Tempt The Unprepared

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

2026 is screaming “Uh-Oh” signals from nearly every sector and asset class with alarming yet eerily ignored clarity. This explains why the longer-term case for gold couldn’t be more obvious, regardless of natural price retracements in the near-term.

In fact, if global financial conditions were not otherwise so disturbing, this historical moment in time would be fascinating.

But rather than just say this, let me show you.

Rising Yields: The Most Misunderstood/Important Signal of 2026?

For example, the $145T global bond market, which is $20T greater in size than the global stock market, remains less understood yet far more significant as an indicator.

Specifically, this “boring” bond market is foretelling an historical sovereign debt crisis which is already playing out before way too many closed eyes.

Yields on sovereign IOUs (British, American, German, Italian, Japanese, etc.) are climbing to the highest levels seen in decades.

Three Reasons/Warnings for Rising Yields

These yields rise when demand, price and, of course, TRUST in government bonds tank.

This dying trust has a lot to do with global debt levels at over $360T and U.S. public debt levels reaching an embarrassing $40T marker, which effectively makes America one big “bad credit.”

(1) Lenders Demand a Risk Premium

Those with bad credit, of course, are charged a higher risk premium or “yield” by lenders, which explains why the yield on the U.S. 10Y has risen by 75 basis points in a matter of months despite a Fed which has yet to raise rates in 2026.

The Fed, alas, is openly losing control of its bond market. This matters, because rising yields mean rising debt costs, which debt-addicted and debt-driven nations like the USA simply can’t control or afford anymore.

(2) More Buyers than Sellers of USTs

In addition to its fall from credit grace, the home of the world reserve currency and once sacred “return-free-risk” 10Y UST is watching helplessly as former buyers of its critical IOUs are rapidly becoming sellers—a force which just sends those fatal yields even higher.

China, for example, once held over $1.3T in USTs. Today it holds less than $650B. Japan, the world’s largest holder of U.S. debt, just sold more USTs in Q1 of 2026 than it has sold in the last four years.

(3) The Brutal Math of Debt

But the most obvious reason for the dumping of American bonds boils down to just brutal math.

Uncle Sam, which is now running an unsustainable 7% current account deficit, is adding $2.5T of new debt to its banana republic balance sheet per year. America spends 50% of its annual tax revenue just to pay interest on its outstanding debt.

Trillions more in unfunded liabilities are also owed, for which the USA simply does not have the funds.

To fill this income vs expense “gap,” it’s no great mystery that this can only be done with trillions more debased, “mouse-clicked” fiat dollars.

This extraordinary (and increasing) dollar-dilution direction explains why the DXY can’t break 100 despite spiking yields.

Gold and a Little Bit of History Repeating Itself

The slow yet steadily increasing death spiral of fiat currencies is fascinating, obvious and yet totally ignored by current stock chasers—at least for now.

It is also a perfect set-up for gold, which the world continues to ignore based on recent and short-term price action rather than longer-term preparation or historical understanding.

The fake liquidity now and to come to “solve” the above bond crisis is an almost mirror image of the 1970-1980 era, when the Dollar lost 50% of its purchasing power, and gold went from $35 to $850 an ounce.

But like the current bull run in gold, the template of the 1970s didn’t happen in a straight line, as midway through that infamous decade, gold saw sell-offs which shook out speculators yet made longer-term investors generational wealth.

The recent price declines in gold are thus no surprise within a secular bull cycle.

As explained elsewhere, gold’s value, liquidity and prominence have been confirmed by forced sales (from sovereigns to fund managers) to create needed liquidity in times of stress.

Such behavior confirms rather than detracts from gold’s rising profile and prominence in the years and cycles to come.

Nevertheless, many are understandably following traditional thinking that a “yield-less pet rock” is less impressive than a high-yielding sovereign bond.

But bonds are only “high-yielding” because they are unloved, distrusted and broken; the only way to “fix” them, moreover, is by debasing the very currency used to measure their so-called “higher” yields.

Such logic misses the currency-weak forest for the higher-yielding trees.

But as figures like Charles Mackay or John Hussman have so often reminded us, “logic” goes out the window when tech stocks and market meme manias replace basic common sense, sound valuation or even a mediocre grasp of history.

Meanwhile: Stocks Defy Sanity, Valuation and Common Sense

Looking at the current U.S. stock market is like looking at a bad, surrealist film with a cheap laugh-track.

By literally every metric, the S&P is grotesquely overvalued:

Investors are currently paying maximum prices for unprecedented valuation risk and historically minimal dividend income.

That’s not logic. It’s madness. As consumer sentiment tanks to the lowest levels recorded at the University of Michigan, and as U.S. credit card delinquency rates climb past 12%, the S&P smiles…

Lead to Temptation

As usual, the Wall Street whales and their Sirens on the rocky shores of the equity and credit trap are seducing the retail plankton to their cyclical doom—pumping stocks on the backs of suckers before the big boys take profits on the eve of a fall.

Of course, the infamous “Buffett Indicator”, which measures equity market cap against GDP, has never been clearer (or higher) in confirming such risk:

But the far more telling “Buffett Indicator,” in my mind, lies in the simple fact that Berkshire Hathaway is sitting wisely in nearly $400B in cash.

Alas, the Oracle of Omaha is openly getting out of harm’s way as legions of retail investors march toward an equity cliff.

The tragedy of the so-called S&P 500 (led by 10 stocks) is that it is really no stock market at all. Instead, it lives and breathes off the moral hazard notion that bad news is good news, as there is always a firehose of Fed liquidity (printed dollars) waiting to “accommodate it.”

Every dip is now perceived as a prelude to a V-shaped recovery compliments of the Federal Reserve, which is neither “Federal” nor a “reserve.”

From Temptation to Lying

But such a dishonest title is no match for the dishonest wordsmithing for which the Fed is now so infamous, whether in denying a “non-recessionary recession,” a growing rather “transitory” inflation trend, “non-QE QE” or just flat out lying about actual vs “reported” inflation.

In fact, the Fed’s desperate yet consistent policy of using dishonest words to buy time, markets and votes while hiding honest math will only continue under Kevin Warsh, a trend which he has all but openly confessed.

In case you haven’t noticed, Warsh intends to measure PCE inflation under a new metric called “trimmed mean PCE,” which effectively removes all the bad inflationary data to create a fictitious notion that inflation is under control.

This is duplicity at its finest. After all, even a witch can look pretty if you take away the warts, which is all Warsh’s new Fed policy boils down to.

In fact, what Warsh is doing is nothing surprising nor anything new.

The Oldest & Only Trick Left: Inflate Away Debt

While the rest of us endure the invisible theft of compounding inflation, the policy makers in DC will secretly welcome it as a means to inflate away their sovereign bar tab on the backs of your purchasing power and wealth.

This is called “negative real rates” or “financial repression,” and it’s the oldest trick in the book of desperately broke nations, namely: Let inflation rip higher than interest rates, but then lie about the embarrassing inflation.

When Even the Official Math is Bad

What’s as disturbing, however, is that even the “official” inflation data, as dishonest and downplayed as it is, is still alarming evidence of open monetary policy failure.

Current U.S. CPI inflation (the cost of consumer goods) is racing past 3.8%, and current U.S. PPI inflation (the business cost of making goods) is already at an embarrassing 6%–well beyond the Fed’s 2% “targets.”

But this is just the beginning. Since the Strait of Hormuz closed, the cost of fertilizer has risen by 20%, gasoline by 52%, European natural gas by 54%, jet fuel by 58%, and WTI crude oil by 60%.

Yet how can U.S. CPI and PPI inflation be in the single digits when everything else has risen by massive double digits?

Well, be patient, because the inflationary lag effect of this “conflict” in Iran (whatever you think of it) is racing toward your shores at an increasing wave height.

From Inflation to Gold: Keep it Simple

These inflation signals, as well as the bond signals above, and the stock mania already covered, are all just flashing neon-indicators of surreal “Uh-Oh” in the risk asset markets and an historical moment of currency debasement in your wallets and homes.

This is not fable but tragic fact.

Gold, whatever its current price, is positioning itself for a lengthy, secular and historical move north. It has a finite supply and infinite duration and is thus far more honest than the unlimited supply and finite duration of sovereign bonds and paper currencies.

For those who still think gold has not done enough, compare its recent history here:

…to the same history of global paper currencies here:

It’s really just that simple.

Gold will continue to climb because a global paper currency system distorted by decades of debt, dishonesty, desperation and debasement has nowhere to go but down.

For wealth preservation investors who understand the math of bonds and the history of debt, this simplicity provides for clarity in a time of fog, sanity in a time of madness, and wealth protection in a time of wealth destruction.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 11:40

Non-English-Speaking Bus Driver Faces Manslaughter Charges After Horror Virginia Crash Kills Entire Family

A commercial bus driver, who federal officials say could not speak English, faces two counts of involuntary manslaughter, with additional charges likely, after his charter bus plowed into vehicles on a Virginia highway Friday morning, killing five people, including an entire Greenfield, Massachusetts, family of four.

The New York Post reports that Virginia State Police revealed the 48-year-old bus driver, Jing S. Dong, was charged with two counts of involuntary manslaughter and will likely face additional charges after killing five people, including an entire family of four from Massachusetts: Dmitri Doncev, 45; his wife, Ecterina, 44; their 13-year-old daughter, Emily; and their 7-year-old son, Mark.

This is the car of an entire family that was ki11ed after a bus driver drove into the back of a stopped car.

The driver, Jing S. Dong, 48, of Staten Island, New York, is a Chinese born naturalized citizen who doesn’t read or speak English.

He attained his commercial driver’s… pic.twitter.com/AaQ8ZiwuZr

— Kentucky Girl (@Notwokenow) May 30, 2026

US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy confirmed on X that Dong, "a man from China who became a U.S. citizen — doesn't speak English. He received his commercial driver's license from New York State in 2024."

"Unacceptable. This is exactly why we are holding states accountable, enforcing the rules of the road, and cracking down on drivers who can't speak English," Duffy said.

Update on the tragic bus crash in Virginia:

Five people are dead, including a 13-year-old girl and a 7-year-old boy, after the driver of a motorcoach slammed into stopped traffic on I-95. @FMCSA Administrator Derek Barrs and our investigators are on the ground at the crash… pic.twitter.com/NWPBd9aLPr

— Secretary Sean Duffy (@SecDuffy) May 29, 2026

X sleuths have begun digging into the bus operator, allegedly E&P Travel Inc., and claim corporate records list the company's registered address as an apartment unit in Kings Mountain, North Carolina.

Satisfactory safety rating... https://t.co/nKMVmxxkdc

— maybe danielle 💻🚛🇺🇸 (@maybedanielleee) May 29, 2026

There has been a shocking uptick in non-English-speaking migrant truckers involved in horrific highway crashes. Some of these truckers entered the country under the Biden-Harris regime's nation-killing open border policies.

Duffy and the Trump administration have been cracking down on this through federal and state actions, especially CDL enforcement, English-proficiency rules, and licensing audits.

In recent weeks, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that freight brokers can be sued under state law for negligent hiring when they hire unsafe trucking firms that later cause crashes. This could be an extinction event for non-English-speaking migrant truckers because no freight broker wants to carry that liability.

Back to the bus driver, Dong: How did he receive citizenship without being able to speak English?

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 11:05

Parabolic Semiconductor Rally: What Breaks The Trade?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

AI Validation Fuels A Ninth Weekly Advance

The headline tape made fresh history. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580.06, finishing up 1.43% on the week and posting its ninth consecutive weekly gain. That’s the longest weekly winning streak since 2024, and only the 5th time since 1965 that has occurred. While markets previously saw weakness following such streaks, the 24- and 52-week outcomes were primarily positive, except in 1989.

However, the Russell 2000 actually fell 0.59% to 2,919, a reminder that the small-cap participation everyone hoped for in March still hasn’t shown up despite the megacap rip. Underneath the headline, the dispersion that’s defined this rally has only widened. Technology and financials carried Friday’s tape while energy lagged on falling crude.

Two macro stories collided midweek, and the market chose to celebrate one and shrug at the other. First, the April PCE inflation print landed Thursday morning with the highest headline reading in nearly three years at 3.8% year-over-year, with core PCE at 3.3%. However, the monthly core reading came in at 0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus, and that softer monthly tone gave the Fed-cut camp something to work with. Second, Axios reported Thursday that the US and Iran had reached a tentative 60-day Memorandum of Understanding to extend the ceasefire framework. Oil promptly slid to a six-week low near $89 WTI, the VIX collapsed to its lowest reading since January, ending the week at 15.32, and the rally accelerated. The combination of a softer core PCE and a reduced geopolitical premium handed equity bulls everything they wanted in two sessions.

The dominant micro story came after the bell on Thursday. Dell Technologies reported fiscal Q1 results that were, by any measure, extraordinary, with revenue hitting a record $43.8 billion, up 88% year-over-year, $24.4 billion in AI orders booked, and $16.1 billion in AI server revenue recognized. That is simply astonishing. However, what really drove the price on Friday was management raising the FY27 AI server revenue target to $60 billion, along with full-year revenue at the midpoint of $167 billion, a 50% annual increase. Dell’s report validated the AI capex thesis at exactly the moment the market was beginning to question how far the parabolic move could extend. The bull case strengthened alongside the asymmetry.

Cross-asset moves followed the same script. Treasury yields eased modestly on the cooler core PCE, the dollar softened slightly, and gold extended to roughly $4,576. Bitcoin remains in a bear market and has slid below $73,700. Beneath the AI exuberance, however, a separate undercurrent of institutional skepticism is building around AI infrastructure overcapacity. Several portfolio managers flagged commercial budget fatigue as a near-term risk, with reports surfacing that Microsoft trimmed its code license spending. The narrative isn’t unbroken, but it is being questioned.

📈Technical Backdrop – New Highs, Thinner Air

The trend is unambiguous. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580.06, posting fresh all-time highs on three of the last five sessions and clearing the prior closing record by roughly 1.4% on the week. The index sits firmly above its 50-day moving average at 7,058 and 200-day moving average at 6,830, putting price roughly 7% above the 50-DMA and nearly 11% above the 200-DMA. On the momentum side, the 14-day RSI has climbed above 70 and is back in overbought territory. Additionally, the MACD has expanded with the new highs and is crossing back above its signal line.

By the standard measures, the bull trend that resumed after the April 7 Iran ceasefire is fully intact and accelerating. A retracement to the previous all-time highs, where the market broke out after the April correction is about 7.5% lower. While such a correction should be expected, given the high levels of complacency during the advance, such a decline will fell far worse that it actually is.

However, the warning signs underneath the surface are getting louder, not quieter. Breadth continues to deteriorate. The percentage of S&P 500 members trading above their 200-day moving average is still hovering near 57%, essentially unchanged from a week ago despite the index hitting new records. Equal-weight is now lagging cap-weight by a meaningful margin over the trailing month, and the cumulative advance-decline line has been making lower highs even as the index makes higher ones. Notably, that’s a textbook bearish divergence. The Nasdaq remains the standout, but the lift is being delivered by a handful of AI-linked mega-caps doing the heavy lifting.

The technical setup for next week makes adding more to equity exposure at current levels uncomfortable. Above the close, resistance sits at the round-number psychological level of 7,700, followed by the consensus year-end target zone near 7,800. Below, the rapidly trailing 5-day moving average around 7,550 is now the first short-term floor, and the prior Wednesday close at 7,520 acts as immediate support. Importantly, a break of 7,520 opens significant room before the next major support. The upside to consensus year-end targets is 2% to 3%. The downside to a routine test of the 200-DMA is 10%.

For positioning, the indicated trade is to use these new highs to harvest gains, not to chase them. Specifically, we continue to suggest trimming positions that have run materially above target weight. Tighten trailing stops on the most extended names, semis especially. Hold new cash deployments back until breadth confirms or a technical break invalidates the trend. With the VIX at 15.32, near its lowest level since January, downside protection is unusually cheap right now.

🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week

The week of June 1 is the heaviest catalyst calendar of the quarter with three threads colliding all at once. First, jobs and inflation data dominate the macro side, with ISM Manufacturing kicking off Monday and Nonfarm Payrolls closing Friday. Second, Broadcom (AVGO) reports Wednesday after the close. After Dell’s blowout Thursday night, the bar Hock Tan needs to clear has been raised significantly. Third, the Iran 60-day Memorandum of Understanding announced Thursday still needs formal ratification within the next two weeks, and any breakdown in those talks would reverse the volatility compression that fueled this past week’s rally.

On the macro side, the order matters. Monday’s ISM Manufacturing print will frame the week and the consensus expects 49.8, a hair below the expansion line. A surprise above 50 would confirm the manufacturing reset narrative and reinforce the bull case for industrials and cyclicals. Conversely, a miss below 49 would reawaken the late-cycle slowdown worry given that Q1 GDP was just revised down to 1.6%. Tuesday brings JOLTS plus Factory Orders, followed on Wednesday by ADP private payrolls and ISM Services, the more important of the two PMIs given that services dominate US output. Friday’s NFP is the data the Fed actually weighs and consensus sits at 145,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.2%. Notably, the asymmetry favors a downside surprise and a print below 100,000 would put September cuts squarely back on the table.

What investors should watch most is the Broadcom (AVGO) setup as mentioned above. The options markets are pricing an implied move of roughly 7% on the print, well above the historical average and the most asymmetric outcome would be a beat with cautious forward guidance. AVGO is priced for management to extend its “$100 billion in AI chip revenue by 2027” line of sight into a hard number, but anything short of that, combined with hyperscaler capex moderation in the commentary, would trigger the kind of broad semiconductor de-risking that the technicals already flag as overdue. The macro releases matter. However, Broadcom Wednesday is the trade the entire tape is built around right now.

💰 The Parabolic Semiconductor Rally

Previously, we laid out the case that market leadership is narrow, increasing summer risk. This week I want to focus the lens on Friday’s Daily Market Commentary topic: “The parabolic semiconductor rally.” That short commentary generated several questions that deserved a more complete response. So, I want to use today’s BullBearReport to expand on my thoughts on the trade: it’s not just leadership; it’s nearly the entire trade.

I mentioned last week that, across the market sectors, roughly $23 billion has flowed into technology ETFs since February; however, almost every other sector has been flat to down since prior to the Iran crisis. Most importantly, it is worth noting that even Energy has failed to rally despite the surge in oil prices and Technology has now surpassed its early year outperformance.

However, that is just the major sectors of the S&P 500. The sector we want to focus on today is the parabolic semiconductor sector, for which we will use the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which closed Friday at $598, putting it 168% above its 50-month moving average. That is the most extreme deviation from trend in any major sector ETF on record. The setup is unique, and the asymmetry has turned against holders. Here’s why semis could break first, and how to position accordingly.

The standard measures of stretched are useful, but they understate what’s happening in semiconductors. Bank of America’s technical desk flagged the SMH weekly RSI above 80 for two consecutive weeks, an all-time high reading and only the fifth such instance since 2012. The fund trades roughly 150% above its 200-week moving average, exceeding the prior peaks of 100% to 108% set in 2021 and 2024. Both of those readings preceded drawdowns of more than 30%.

However, the cleanest single picture is the 50-month moving average. The 200-month MA at $88 is too far below the current price to be a useful mean reversion target. The 50-month MA at $224 is the actual trend that has tracked semis through every cycle since 2002.

Today, SMH sits 168% above that line. The prior peak deviation was 95% when the same parabolic semiconductor surge occurred in 2021, and that move resolved in a 49% drawdown over the following twelve months. By comparison, today’s reading nearly doubles the prior record.

The picture is unambiguous. Today’s reading isn’t part of the historical range. It is the historical range plus an additional 70 percentage points of overshoot. Mean reversion to the 50-MMA from $598 to $224 implies a ~63% price decline. That’s not a forecast, just arithmetic.

The question is what would cause such a mean-reverting event?

The Customers Are Five Companies

Every parabolic move eventually runs into a customer concentration problem, and the semiconductor rally has the most extreme version I’ve seen in my career. The entire AI infrastructure thesis rests on five hyperscalers continuing to underwrite the buildout. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google, and Oracle account for the overwhelming majority of demand for forward AI chips. Their combined 2026 capital expenditure is projected above $800 billion, and the SMH basket is priced for that number to keep accelerating into 2028.

Importantly, the dependency runs in only one direction. The hyperscalers can throttle capex at will. They have the cash flow, the balance sheet flexibility, and shareholder bases that increasingly want to see returns on the prior years’ spending. Semiconductor names cannot create demand in a reciprocal manner. They are at the mercy of the hyperscalers’ ongoing spending commitments. Therefore, the moment any single hyperscaler tempers forward capex guidance, the bid under Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and Micron evaporates instantly.

The customer dependency runs five-to-one, and the supplier dependency is even tighter. Notice in the diagram above that more than half of SMH is exposed to four names that all rely on the same five buyers. There is no diversification inside the basket. If hyperscalers throttle, the entire ETF moves together.

“When 73% of professional money managers sit on the same side of a trade, the marginal buyer is already in. There is no second leg of buyers waiting to bid the dip.” Bank of America’s May Fund Manager Survey identified long global semiconductors as the most crowded trade on Wall Street at a record 73% reading.

The answer to why the parabolic semiconductor move has been so sharp, and why fundamentals do not seem to matter, comes down to a single word: Gamma.

The Gamma Squeeze Is Doing The Work

The fundamental story explains why semis are extended. It doesn’t explain why the move went vertical over the last six weeks. That mechanical acceleration is a textbook gamma squeeze, and understanding the plumbing matters because the same mechanism that drove the move up is what makes the unwind violent on the way down.

The chain of events is straightforward. Retail and momentum traders pile into short-dated call options on Nvidia, Broadcom, and SMH. Dealers who sold those calls are short gamma and must buy the underlying stock to stay delta-neutral as the price rises. Their hedging buys push the stock higher, which forces more hedging, which pushes the stock higher still. The feedback loop runs until call buying stalls or expiration removes the options from the dealers’ books.

The mechanics of this particular parabolic semiconductor advance are symmetric, and that’s the danger. Every share that dealers were forced to buy on the way up becomes a share they’re forced to sell on the way down. The buying and selling aren’t driven by fundamentals. They’re driven by hedging discipline against a derivatives book. When the catalyst hits, whether it’s a guidance disappointment, a hyperscaler capex cut, or simply monthly options expiration removing the gamma support, the loop reverses.

An additional wrinkle makes the unwind worse than the rally. Once stocks start falling, put buying replaces call buying. Dealers are now short put gamma and must sell stock as prices fall to stay hedged. The selling begets more selling, just as the buying begets more buying. We saw this exact pattern in the August 2024 unwind, when SMH dropped 34% in roughly six weeks despite no change in the underlying AI demand thesis. The fundamentals weren’t worse. The gamma was gone.

For positioning, the gamma backdrop changes how you think about hedging. Buying puts after the move starts is expensive because implied volatility has already expanded. The cheap insurance is bought before the unwind. That window is open today, but there is a high probability it will close after Broadcom reports earnings on Thursday if their guidance disappoints.

History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes Loudly

Every prior parabolic semiconductor move resolved the same way. The 2000 dot-com peak gave back 82%. By 2008, the GFC drawdown cost another 52%. In 2018, the trade war pulled the index back 30%. Then the 2022 rate-shock cycle delivered a 49% peak-to-trough decline, followed by a 34% reset during the 2024 August unwind. None of these were forecast in advance. Each was justified by a “different this time” narrative right up until the moment it wasn’t.

The 2000 entry on the chart matters most. That parabolic semiconductor move featured the same combination of features that defines today’s landscape: a “different this time” narrative built on a real technology transition, and a concentrated trade among professional investors. The post-peak drawdown was 82%, and SMH itself took roughly 9 years to recover to its prior high from the 2008 trough, which compounded the damage. The current setup doesn’t have to deliver that outcome. However, the prior parabolic peaks all delivered something materially worse than the typical correction. The current setup is more extreme than any of them, not less.

What Should Investors Do Now

Here’s the problem with selling a parabolic semiconductor move outright. Parabolic moves run further than anyone thinks possible before they break, and the final leg often delivers the largest gains of the entire move. Outright shorting is a way to get “carried out on a stretcher.” We saw it in 1999, and then the same trap caught short sellers in 2021, and again in early 2024. The discipline is to manage the asymmetry of the move, not to predict the top.

Specifically, here’s the playbook we’re applying in the model portfolios this week.

Make no mistake. This is not a “doom and gloom” analysis, and none of this is bearish on the secular AI thesis. The AI capex cycle is real, and the long-term demand for compute infrastructure is durable. However, secular themes regularly produce cyclical drawdowns of 30% to 50% on the way to their long-term payoff. Internet adoption was real in 2000, and the underlying secular story has played out across two decades. That truth didn’t save anyone who bought Cisco at the peak. Disciplined exposure management is how we participate in the secular story without owning the worst part of the cyclical drawdown.

Most crucially, trimming exposure is not a market call. It’s risk management at a point where the asymmetry no longer favors holders. The reward for staying long the last 10% of a parabolic semiconductor move is small. Round-tripping the previous 50% is permanent damage to capital. When leadership gets this narrow and this stretched, the rally and the risk are the same trade.

Position accordingly, and stay nimble through next week’s catalyst window.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 10:30

"Well-Funded" NGO Machine Behind Newark Anti-ICE Chaos; Bessent Signals Nonprofit Crackdown

Anti-ICE demonstrations outside Delaney Hall in Newark, New Jersey, an ICE immigration detention facility, escalated in the overnight hours as the far-left and well-funded maximum pressure campaign entered its ninth day on Saturday. The continued mobilization only suggests a coordinated pressure operation, with dark-money-funded NGOs appearing to provide organizational and financial support.

Citizen journalist Nick Sortor went undercover at the anti-ICE encampment outside Delaney Hall in Newark on Saturday night, documenting what he described as far-left revolutionaries training their so-called 'woke warriors' to combat ICE agents.

Sortor explained:

I went undercover into a leftist training "class" here outside ICE Newark, where rioters are each handed ~$100 of equipment to pretend to be medic.

These people are basically Antifa's support staff.

They were given goggles, latex gloves, and most notably, 3M P100 respirators with MULTIPLE spare cartridges — all new in the box.

The respirator + spare cartridges cost $75 each. And they were doling them out like candy.

These are NOT organic riots. They're well organized and well-funded. These groups need to be broken up into a million pieces.

🚨 EXCLUSIVE: I went undercover into a leftist training “class” here outside ICE Newark, where rioters are each handed ~$100 of equipment to pretend to be medics

These people are basically Antifa’s support staff

They were given goggles, latex gloves, and most notably, 3M P100… pic.twitter.com/CeB6m4QlYo

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) May 30, 2026

Chaos.

🚨 BREAKING: MAJOR clashes underway between NJ police and anti-ICE rioters in Newark

SUPER physical fights

WE NEED NATIONAL GUARD! pic.twitter.com/vMMmlcxBZb

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) May 31, 2026

🚨 BREAKING: NJ POLICE HAVE LOST CONTROL —THEY’RE OVERWHELMED

VlOLENT CLASHES UNDERWAY

(One of my phones is now a casuaIty) pic.twitter.com/qMbW6hfqZ9

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) May 31, 2026

🚨 BREAKING: ABSOLUTE WARZONE OUTSIDE ICE NEWARK AS RIOTERS ATTACK NJ RIOT POLICE

POLICE ARE BEING HIT WITH ROCKS, AND ANTIFA IS THROWING FLASHBANGS BACK AT THEM

WE NEED NATIONAL GUARD! pic.twitter.com/4fOG4gRvri

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) May 31, 2026

🚨 BREAKING: Anti-ICE rioters are now STEALING items from local businesses and SETTING FIRES in the street near ICE Newark

Police are a QUARTER MILE AWAY

TOTAL ANARCHY pic.twitter.com/cdax1nH7Bd

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) May 31, 2026

Even the globalists at The Atlantic were recently forced to acknowledge ... 

Late Saturday evening, Democratic New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill said, "We know that people from outside the state have been interfering in the protests and escalating them. 5 of the 6 people arrested last night by state police were from outside New Jersey."

WOW! The governor of New Jersey just revealed 5 of the 6 people arrested here outside the Newark ICE facility by NJ State Police were from OUT OF STATE

Once again: NOTHING about this is organic.

NJ GOV. SHERRILL: “We know that people from outside the state have been interfering… pic.twitter.com/Ceo8omhb2W

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) May 30, 2026

Fox News Digital observed signs from several far-left organizations at the ICE facility, including the Democratic Socialists of America, the Freedom Socialist Party, the Internationalist Group, the Labor Committee to Defend Immigrants, and the CUNY Internationalist Clubs.

Demonstrators carried copies of "Challenge," a newspaper affiliated with the Progressive Labor Party, with headlines including "LONG LIVE COMMUNISM!" and "NO PAPERS, NO BORDERS, NO BOSSES."

Fox News Digital reported that one protester accused Gov. Sherrill and liberal politicians of not spending enough time at the immigration facility, claiming they were there to "protect the racists because racism protects their profits."

That protester told the crowd that the "only thing that's going to save us is a mass militant, multiracial, anti-racist rebellion against this system."

Protesters responded by chanting, "If we don't get it, shut it down!"

Last week, we noted that one of the dark-money-funded NGOs organizing the protest is the New Jersey Alliance for Immigrant Justice (NJAIJ).

Influence Watch states on its website that NJAIJ is a coalition of over 50 groups that advocate for left-of-center immigration policy. Its executive committee includes the ACLU of New Jersey, the Latin American Legal Defense and Education Fund, the New Jersey Working Families Party, the American Friends Service Committee, and Faith in New Jersey.

Earlier on Saturday, Fox News Digital reporter Michael Dorgan questioned far-left Marxist influencer Hasan Piker about foreign influence and funding connected to China and the Neville Roy Singham network.

Related:

• Hasan Piker Says Quiet Part Out Loud, Maps Radical Left NGO Network To China-Based Marxist Financier

Piker denied having a direct connection with the China-based billionaire who funds far-left movements in the US that are seen merely as CCP influence operations by US federal investigators.

Related:

• Feds Subpoena Hasan Piker, CodePink Cofounder Over "Humanitarian" Trip To Communist Cuba

"I don't know why there's this environment of suspicion or this environment that takes this sinister shape for some reason when we're talking about things that are totally above board and totally legal," Piker said. "I don't have any personal contact with Roy Singham or any of these other people. I mean, I know some of these people. They're wonderful people in general. They are activists."

Piker claimed that the federal government "has been actively trying to target activists and protesters," shifting the blame to President Donald Trump.

"I feel like that's not great, especially considering that Donald Trump said he was going to end cancel culture, he was actually going to end woke-ism, and that he was the free speech president," Piker said. "I feel like there are a lot of people who believe in that message, and now he's betrayed that message."

"People are allowed to believe whatever they want to believe," he continued. "That's the American spirit, baby."

Yet nonprofits were never intended to organize street violence, clash with police, shut down infrastructure, riot, burn down city streets, incite Marxist revolution, or serve as proxies for statecraft operations by foreign governments.

Federal investigators understand that protests during the Trump era are not grassroots protests. These are part of the protest industrial complex paralyzing American infrastructure on demand, financed by left-wing billionaire family foundations through nonprofits, as well as entities based in hostile foreign power, such as the Singham network, which even the New York Times says conducts propaganda operations for the CCP.

That's why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled Thursday that a coming crackdown on dark-money funded NGOs will be seen in the "weeks and months ahead."

🚨 WOW! Scott Bessent just revealed the IRS has moved to make NGOs LIABLE for violent activity committed by their grant recipients like Antifa

George Soros has been put on NOTICE.

"The IRS is now giving guidance on the Form 990, which nonprofits they have to file. We are going… pic.twitter.com/15ToheHbwa

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) May 28, 2026

It's not just China…

• Is There A "Cuba Connection" Behind The Radicalization Of America's Nonprofit Left

Last October, Seamus Bruner, Director of Research at the Government Accountability Institute, briefed President Trump on television about radical left NGOs and activist networks.

"We have identified dozens of radical organizations, not just the decentralized Antifa organizations, but dozens of radical organizations that have received more than $100 million from the Riot Inc investors," Bruner told Trump.

Source: Government Accountability Institute

This subject is near and dear to Elon Musk, who at the time commented on a video of Seamus briefing Trump.

Way more than $100M of US taxpayer money

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 8, 2025

Hedge fund legend Kyle Bass noted, "SecScottBessent is doing God's work. Imagine if the IRS required a full donor list to be public to maintain the 501 (c) (3) 's tax-exempt status."

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 09:55

Is A New Iron Curtain Inevitable?

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

Russia’s consequent focus on the western front might embolden US-backed NATO member Turkiye to accelerate its power play in the south at the risk of sparking another regional crisis after Ukraine.

Russian Ambassador-at-Large Artyom Bulatov warned in a recent interview that “Westerners, with energy worthy of a better cause, are erecting a new ‘Iron Curtain’, seeking to make irreversible the rupture – provoked by themselves – of socio-economic, trade, transport, interpersonal, cultural, and historical ties that have been built in the region not over years, but over centuries.” He also condemned the weaponization of regional interaction mechanisms like the Council of the Baltic States against Russia.

Truth be told, a new Iron Curtain is inevitable and has been since summer 2024 when the Baltic States and Poland combined their respective border fortification plans along NATO’s Eastern Flank to unveil what they now officially refer to as the “EU Defense Line”, which readers can learn more about here. This initiative will likely be expanded to include Finland too, thus stretching from the Arctic to Central Europe. Even in the event of a Russian-US rapprochement, which is now unlikely, these barriers will still remain.

Russian experts, who operated for so long under the influence of the wishful thinking fantasy that the EU is challenging Russia at its senior US patron’s behest and not due to its own ideologically driven hatred of Russia (contrary to its objective interests), are finally waking up to reality. New President of the Russian International Affairs Council Dmitriy Trenin, who issued an unprecedented clarion call in April for correcting foreign policy misperceptions, published a relevant piece in parallel with Bulatov’s interview.

Titled “The EU, Like ‘NATO 3.0,’ Will Remain Our Adversaries”, it dramatically begins by informing readers that “For the first time since 1945, the most pressing military threat to Russia is coming from Europe—European states themselves. This represents the most significant military-political shift for Russia since the victory in the Great Patriotic War.” The goal, Trenin believes, is “to split the Russian Federation into externally controlled components and turn them into semi-colonies of the European Union.”

This will be pursued through indefinitely perpetuating the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine together with ramping up sanctions and military pressure for undermining domestic political stability.

He shared five suggestions in response to these threats:

1) strengthen the homefront;

2) demonstrate willingness to strike targets in the EU (and actually do so if need be);

3) strengthen ties with China to the point of a de facto global alliance;

4) exploit US-EU divisions; and

5) and capitalize on political shifts in EU states.

Trenin also reaffirmed Russia’s new self-identity as a (Eurasian) civilization-state, the subtext being that Russians en masse are increasingly viewing themselves as different from Europeans for the first time since Russia’s experiment of emulating the West began three centuries ago. All the insight that he shared in his article pairs with what Bulatov shared in his interview and the “EU Defense Line” that’s under construction to ensure that a new Iron Curtain is inevitable. Russians are also finally accepting this too.

In terms of the bigger picture, three trends are self-evident:

1) the EU will independently continue challenging Russia regardless of however Russian-US relations develop;

2) Russia will continue prioritizing the World Majority over the West; and 3) Russian-EU tensions will become the new normal.

With Russia focusing on the western front as a result, US-backed NATO member Turkiye is expected to accelerate its power play in the south, thus sowing the seeds of another regional crisis after Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 09:20

Immigrant Hordes Set Paris Ablaze Because Their Soccer Team Won

In case you needed further justification for denying your woman's request for a vacation in Paris, hordes of migrants gave your position another boost over Saturday night, as they rampaged across the "City of Light" and other French locales, setting structures and vehicles ablaze, smashing the windows of occupied cars, destroying shops and unleashing other varied forms of mayhem. And they were doing this because they were happy...about a soccer game. 

La Tour Eiffel est noyée sous un nuage de fumée après un départ de feu sur les quais de seine.

Situation toujours très tendue dans ce secteur.#PSG #PSGARS #Arsenal #UCLfinal #Paris pic.twitter.com/89XVXjfRho

— Luc Auffret (@LucAuffret) May 31, 2026

Yes, attacking French society (such as it is) was the outlet for joy they felt over Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) defeating the London-based Arsenal soccer team via a penalty shootout in the Champions League final. After the game, they poured into the streets and began destroying other people's property.

🇫🇷 Paris currently looks like a war zone. Again.

North African gangs are blocking the streets and destroying everything in sight following PSG winning the Champions League.

Total chaos. pic.twitter.com/pzRsF0iXX7

— Dr. Maalouf ‏ (@realMaalouf) May 30, 2026

Police deployed tear gas in clashes around Paris. More than 400 people were arrested across France by Sunday's early hours, including at least 280 in Paris, according to the French interior ministry. Seven police officers were injured. Last year's PSG championship also sparked disaster, including the death of a 17-year-old. 

The situation is worsening and getting completely out of control in Paris.

The Champs-Élysées area is being destroyed, with migrant gangs reportedly even attempting to set fire to the Arc de Triomphe.

A literal war zone. pic.twitter.com/yENmLrpRXm

— Dr. Maalouf ‏ (@realMaalouf) May 30, 2026

"Only in France does a football club's victory spark riots," lamented conservative leader Marine Le Pen. "Only in France does everyone feel compelled to lock themselves in their homes on the evening of a victory to avoid being confronted with violence. The French can no longer stand these scenes of chaos that multiply at the slightest pretext, and this, despite an extraordinary security apparatus." The destruction was visited upon bakeries, restaurants, retail stores, bus shelters and cars.

In perhaps the most disturbing video of the night, rioters were seen shattering the windows of a car occupied by two young women: 

🚨HAPPENING NOW IN PARIS: Islamic anarchists are swarming women in cars and doing god knows what to them.

Where is President Macron? https://t.co/qnTruGIZvy

— Drew (@AllegedlyDrew) May 31, 2026

While major media won't do it, we're highlighting migrants as the principal offenders because people lacking native French characteristics dominate imagery of the hellish scenes across Paris and France. 

This is Paris, France tonight. Import the third world, become the third world. pic.twitter.com/BaiCRW1cRP

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) May 31, 2026

"Yay, fellas, our team won!" :

North African PSG fans burned, devastated and looted Paris. If you import third world you become third world. pic.twitter.com/auvt2Z9Hu0

— RadioGenoa (@RadioGenoa) May 31, 2026

Some of the ugliest scenes played out on Avenue des Champs-Elysees, which was once widely and reasonably nicknamed the "most beautiful avenue in the world." On Saturday night, thanks to a long-running cultural invasion that continues to plumb new dystopian depths, the stretch famous for the Arc de Triomphe, luxurious shops and fine dining was among the world's most alarming.   

The Muslim gang riots continue in Paris.

A huge fire was started at the foot of the Eiffel Tower.

Notice how they chant “Allahu Akbar.” This is a religious war, and this is their way of saying “we own the place now.” pic.twitter.com/MLXSc3IEXi

— Dr. Maalouf ‏ (@realMaalouf) May 31, 2026

In a contribution to French society that should live in infamy, leftist Second Vice President of the National Assembly Clemence Guette posted a message before the violence started unfolding, touting the "victory of a collective" (nice Marxist flourish there!), and asking authorities "not to spoil the party once again," and to refrain from "violent repression," saying police should "let Parisians and Francilians have their pride and joy for this evening." 

Here's what "pride and joy" looks like to moronic, multicultural Marxists: 

Problems in Paris pic.twitter.com/KOU8r5UF4S

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 31, 2026

And here's what Paris looked like before being blessed by cultural enrichment:  

Paris before the Globalists started implementing their Plan to use French Tax Payer to import & house Tens of Millions of African & Asian Migrants.

It’s not just Paris - it’s the entire Western Civilised World. pic.twitter.com/CbUAYwzuKx

— Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) May 31, 2026 Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 08:45

Intercepted Iranian Missile Injures 5 Americans At Kuwaiti Air Base; Tehran Identifies Two Key MOU Sticking Points Summary

• Iran is pushing forward legislation formalizing control/management of Hormuz Strait shipping, which flies in the face of Trump warnings & conditions.
• An Iranian Fateh-110 short-range ballistic missile targeted Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base, a key operational hub for the U.S. Air Force. BBG says missile intercepted, but falling debris struck part of the base, injuring five Americans.
• Two more American drones reported destroyed or damaged in the Kuwait base attack (DropSite/BBG).
• Iran says two big MOU agreement issues remain & are not finalized: Unfreezing of Assets & Sanctions, Nuclear File

//--> //--> US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Yes 55% · No 45%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Iran Moves to 'Legalize/Formalize' Management Of Hormuz Strait

A Saturday message and warning from Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters via Al Jazeera: "The management of the Strait of Hormuz is exercised with full authority by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran." It added that "all ships, commercial vessels and tankers are only required to travel through the designated routes and obtain permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy."

So despite President Trump's latest warning which declared strict conditions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran appears to be completely brushing his words aside, and is moving closer to formalizing its authority over vital energy shipping waterway.

State-run Nour News is reporting that a bill outlining Tehran's role in managing passage through the strategic waterway has been finalized and is expected to be brought to a vote soon.

According to Bloomberg, Iranian lawmaker Alireza Salimi did not provide a specific timeline for the vote but said the legislation is on track to become law. Salimi said that "only Iran and Oman can decide on Strait of Hormuz management" - adding that "the Omani side has given preliminary approval" to Tehran's plan. He further emphasized the strategic importance of Hormuz, declaring that "the Strait of Hormuz is more important and more valuable to the Islamic Republic of Iran than dozens of nuclear bombs."

Previous comments by Salimi indicate the bill would cover shipping security, the collection of navigation and environmental pollution fees, as well as the creation of a regional development and progress fund - all of which critics have dismissed as but Tehran's ruse to collect what is in effect a "toll". The legislation is expected to undergo review by Iran's Guardian Council, which is responsible for vetting and approving all laws before they take effect.

More Reported US Drones Destroyed

Reports of more MQ-9 Reaper damage or destruction have emerged; however, the Pentagon has not verified this, and is not expected to. This along with the past week of 'live-fire' tit-for-tat incidents suggests an escalating situation, even as the warring sides try to get back to the peace negotiations table. It looks like it could be related to the Saturday missile attack on a US base in Kuwait, but details are murky. Per DropSite:

2 more drones were reportedly downed in Iran on Friday. https://t.co/VocxypbfSC

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 30, 2026 MOU Holdup: The Sticking Points

Some latest commentary on where things stand via Al Jazeera... the key issues:

• Unfreezing of Assets & Sanctions
• Nuclear File

"So far, there is no timeframe. However, we know that the negotiations are still continuing. The agreement, according to Iranian officials here, is not finalised yet. Proposals and messages are being exchanged through Pakistani mediators and some other regional players as well," the report says. Per AJ:

The Iranians, while saying that it is not finalised, have largely agreed on many items. However, there are still some sticking points.

Finally, the Iranians are quite clear at this stage. They are saying that they are not discussing the nuclear file or nuclear programme unless confidence-building measures are put in place. Only if the first phase is successful will they be open to discussing their nuclear programme.

These confidence-building measures have been precisely identified as the unfreezing of billions in assets held aborad.

New Iranian Attack on US Base in Kuwait

An Iranian Fateh-110 short-range ballistic missile targeted Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base, a key operational hub for the U.S. Air Force's expeditionary forces in the Gulf region. An initial report from Bloomberg News indicates that Kuwaiti air defenses intercepted the tactical ballistic missile in the last 24 hours, but falling debris struck part of the base, injuring five Americans and damaging one MQ-9 Reaper drone while severely damaging another.

About five people, including both contractors and active duty personnel, suffered minor injuries, the person said. One Reaper was destroyed and at least one other was seriously damaged. -BBG

⚠️ Bloomberg reporting the consequences of Thursday night's Iranian ballistic missile strike on Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait: Several Americans suffered minor injuries. Two MQ-9 Reaper strike drones - $30 million each - seriously damaged.

The weapon: a Fateh-110 ballistic… https://t.co/WgmB42pBU5 pic.twitter.com/3xYK4oHSHx

— The Tectonic (@thetect0nic) May 30, 2026

News of the strike on ASAB, where the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing under U.S. Air Forces Central acts as a forward logistics, airlift, and combat-power gateway for the broader CENTCOM theater, comes as the US and Iran on Friday reached a tentative memorandum of understanding to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and restart nuclear negotiations. However, the proposal still requires final approval from President Trump, according to U.S. officials cited by Fox News.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also indicated yesterday that Washington is maintaining maximum leverage, saying sanctions relief will remain off the table unless Tehran reopens the Hormuz chokepoint, transfers highly enriched uranium, and accepts that it cannot maintain a nuclear program. Meanwhile, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth attended the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore overnight, where he said the US military is prepared to resume strikes against Iran if negotiations over the nuclear program collapse.

.@SECWAR “We were in a cabinet meeting just a couple of days ago, and the president said—hey, it will be a great deal—and if Iran doesn’t want to make a great deal that ensures they don’t get a nuclear weapon—they can deal with the guy on my left.

That was the only time I’ve… pic.twitter.com/Int1YiuflQ

— DOW Rapid Response (@DOWResponse) May 30, 2026

"Any deal will be a good one. A great one," Hegseth said Trump told him. "And if Iran doesn't want to make a great deal that ensures they don't get a nuclear weapon, they can deal with the guy on my left," he added, referring to the War Department. "We are more than capable," Hegseth noted in reference to a renewed military strike against Tehran. "Our stockpiles are more than suited for that, both there and around the globe."

Hegseth's remarks came just hours after Trump met with officials in the White House Situation Room to discuss the next phase of negotiations with Iran. "The Situation Room meeting has concluded and lasted approximately two hours. President Trump will only make a deal that is good for America and satisfies his red lines. Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon," a White House official said in a statement issued late Friday.

MOU Not Finalized, Tehran Confirms

Iran's Foreign Ministry commented on the memorandum of understanding between the two nations, stating that nothing has been finalized yet.

News of progress toward a peace deal comes as energy experts warn of an energy cliff that could emerge as soon as next month if the Hormuz chokepoint remains closed. It's clear that inventories, floating storage, rerouted cargoes, emergency substitutions, and rationing have absorbed the initial shock of lost Gulf-area crude, offsetting the roughly 10 million barrels of oil that weren't reaching their intended destinations each day. Additionally, daily headlines have pushed Brent crude futures to $91 per barrel by Friday afternoon.

But as we've warned, if the Hormuz chokepoint doesn't reopen in the near term, crude oil could soon be aggressively repriced higher, as those inventories are being drained at an alarming rate.

Latest on the energy market:

• UBS Warns Of "Scary" Oil Price Scenarios Once Inventory Buffers Run Dry

• "Approaching Unheard Of Inventory Levels": Exxon, Chevron Issue Apocalyptic Warning About What Happens Next To Oil

• 'Tank Bottoms' Loom At Cushing After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws, Another Huge SPR Drain

Latest Bloomberg headlines:

US Naval Blockade

• The US continues its blockade of Iranian vessels, with the US Central Command attempting to stop Iranian vessels seeking to pass through the blockaded area by issuing warnings along the blockade line.

• US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still in place as of Saturday morning.

Iranian Missile Attacks

• An Iranian ballistic missile strike on Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base within the past 24 hours caused minor injuries to several Americans and seriously damaged two MQ-9 Reaper strike drones.

• Kuwaiti air defenses intercepted the Fateh-110 missile, but falling debris struck the air base.

Ceasefire Negotiations

• The US and Iran have reached a preliminary deal to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and discuss Tehran's nuclear program, but President Trump has yet to agree to the terms.

• Trump left a two-hour Situation Room meeting on Friday without deciding on the possible deal, despite earlier suggesting an agreement was near.

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Saturday that the US is ready to restart attacks on Iran if a deal cannot be reached.

Strait of Hormuz Transit

• Iran state TV reports that 2 ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.

• The US affirmed that deals with Iran to sail through the Strait of Hormuz safely are prohibited, regardless of whether a payment is made.

• Several vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked in recent days, according to the Chevron CEO.

• Qatar opposes permanent legal fees for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but a temporary fee for mine-clearing purposes is negotiable.

Polymarket: //--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Yes 8% · No 93%
View full market & trade on Polymarket //--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Yes 14% · No 86%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

The clock is ticking for a deal to avert an energy cliff that top energy experts warn is near.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 08:30

"It's All So Tiresome": UK's Social Media Ban Trudges Ever Onward

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

The UK government’s “consultation” on social media harm is over, and – brace yourselves – it turns out they’re going to have to do something about it.

I know, I was shocked too.

The main talking point is that “social media is like cigarettes”. Everyone is saying that, it’s the meme of the day.

It’s a sentiment originally taken from a new report submitted to the consultation by the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges.

Titled “Growing up in an online world”, it contains this hilarious line in the foreword:

…there is, I think, an overwhelming consensus that excessive screen time can harm children and young people and we need to call this out unflinchingly rather than passively wait for someone else to prove causation”.

Which is a pretty neat summary of how our political system works in general, and certainly in this case: We don’t know if there’s even a problem yet, but by God we’re gonna do something about it.

That the something they end up doing makes them rich and powerful is just one of the curious coincidences tyrants can always rely on.

{Sidenote: This morning the BBC had “Overwhelimg consensus” in their headline on this story, but at some point the absurdity of that quote was realised, and the headline changed. Now there’s this disclaimer near the end: “There is no consensus among the wider scientific community that screen time overall is harmful to children.” Funny stuff.}

Elsewhere, the report wails about “a wave of radicalized children” who pose “a real risk to society”, and calls social media “an incredibly powerful and uncontrolled commercial detriment to health”.

In a similar vein, The Guardian is warning of a “tsunami of harm”, and has assembled an all-star cast of interested parties to talk up the scariness of social media meanness.

After meeting with “bereaved parents” earlier today, Keir Starmer has “vowed to take action”.

His potential rival for the leadership has been even more vocal. Political eunuch and leadership hopeful Wes Streeting is all over this, campaigning hard to be the next disposable suit full of bugger all to “lead the country”:

Big tech's behaviour has been akin to big tobacco, introducing an addictive and harmful product whilst avoiding regulation.

We’ve got to give our children their childhood back, and that starts with a social media ban for under-16s. pic.twitter.com/soRbjbHIsG

— Wes Streeting (@wesstreeting) May 26, 2026

He thinks a ban should be “just the start”:

Social media should be treated like tobacco – it’s extremely addictive, bad for our health, and big tech is borrowing the big tobacco playbook to avoid regulation. We’ve got to give our children their childhood back […] A ban for under-16s must be the start, not the end […]We have given the pen to tech moguls to write our future for us. It’s time to take the pen back.”

Streeting is an idiot whose ambition outweighs his intellect by a factor of ten, and who clearly doesn’t understand the rules of the game he’s playing.

Some political handler behind the scenes probably told him to go hard on this issue because it will make him look tough and assertive, but the likely truth is he’s being wheeled out as the extreme option so a “sensible middle ground” option – probably Andy Burnham – can enforce “common sense policies”.

What will those policies be? It doesn’t really matter, but we’ll get to that.

Technology Secretary Liz Kendall, notable only for garnering less than 5% of the vote in the 2015 leadership election, is out there promising “action”:

'The question isn't whether we are going to act, we will'

As a consultation on social media use for under-16s comes to an end Technology Secretary Liz Kendall told #BBCBreakfast the Government plans to take actionhttps://t.co/jJ6RakraWV pic.twitter.com/6lLD8yVoY9

— BBC Breakfast (@BBCBreakfast) May 26, 2026

…they haven’t decided what “action” yet, exactly but it’s definitely going to happen.

The Guardian has a handy list to choose from, including but not limited to:

– social media bans
– “digital curfews”
– “function limitations”
– age gating “addictive features”
– protecting children from personalised algorithms
– enforcing screen time limits.

Which one will it be?

Well let me answer that question with another question – Who cares?

The powers that be certainly don’t.

This is very much an “any colour you want so long as it’s black” situation.

Choose an outright ban – “Great, please submit your ID to prove you’re over 16 and exempt from the social media ban.”

Choose screen time limits – “Great, please submit your ID to prove you’re over 16 and exempt from screen time limitations.”

Choose digital curfews – “Great, please submit your ID to prove you’re over 16 and exempt from the digital curfew.”

Since all the proposed measures rely on age verification for enforcement, they all achieve the end goal: No more online anonymity, for kids or adults alike.

Debating the list is pointless, and making a choice counterproductive. It’s like choosing the colour of your electric chair: It makes no difference to the end result, but your entirely cosmetic choice lends tacit approval of the whole process.

We all know where this is going: Age gating everything, everywhere and then – eventually – digital ID.

It’s just…

…and you’re left wondering, who is this even for?

What is the point of this worn-out, unenthusiastic propaganda?

We know what they’re going to do, they have said they’re going to do it, and still they feel the need to play out this performative umming and erring.

Just get on with it.

All the people who don’t believe them will NEVER believe them, and all the poor fools who do believe them will always believe them.

So why carry on this absurd pretense?

It’s like when you’re watching a really dull movie – one that has telegraphed its “clever twist” in the first ten minutes – but is still insisting on dragging out the run time for two more hours of what the writers evidently consider skillful foreshadowing.

Or when you get a call from an unknown number, and some eager breathless voice announces “this is not a sales call”, before launching into a fifteen minute speech about double glazing or solar panels, and you’re just waiting for a pause long enough to say “no thanks”, and hang up.

It is a sales call, and you’ve known that from the beginning, and they know you know, but they can’t stop talking because then you’ll leave. They have to keep talking because they know you’re not listening.

So maybe that’s the answer. Maybe they can’t take a breath because people will hang up.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 08:10

More Mystery Drone Incidents In EU Skies As Putin Mocks: "The Russians Are Coming!"

Flights at Germany's Munich Airport were once again temporarily suspended on Saturday after a drone sighting was reported, eliciting a response from a large number of police and security services personnel.

Euronews reviews in the wake of the incident, which ended with the key European hub resuming regular operations after no UAV was found or identified, "Munich Airport closed twice within 24 hours in October following suspected drone sightings."

This is the latest in a months-long spate of similar air traffic disruptions due to mysterious reported drone incursions, with European officials frequently voicing suspicions of a Russian sabotage and disruption campaign of EU airspace.

Getty Images/Bloomberg

But the biggest incident this week happened in Romania, where local officials described that during the Russian military's assault on Ukraine Thursday night, a Russian drone slammed into the residential building in the southeastern city of Galati - resulting in an explosion and a fire that injured two people.

The Romanian Foreign Affairs Ministry condemned the "grave and irresponsible escalation from Russia" while further declaring it has issued formal request for more anti-drone defense measures from NATO.

"Romania has informed allies and NATO's secretary-general about the circumstances and requested measures to accelerate the transfer of anti-drone capabilities to Romania," the ministry said.

While Romania and other countries which border Ukraine have witnessed 'errant' drones and missiles come across the border before, this was the first time Romania in particular has suffered casualties as a result of a projectile hitting a densely populated city or area.

President Putin himself has weighed in, demanding that forensic proof that this was indeed a Russian drone - and not a Ukrainian one - be handed over to the Kremlin for an investigation.

He also used the opportunity in Friday remarks to highlight that Russia is always blamed for any and all drone incursions into European airspace due to Russiaphobia. Putin said according to TASS:

Ukrainian drones have previously entered the airspace of various countries, and initial reports consistently claimed it was "a Russian attack," President Vladimir Putin said in response to a TASS question about the drone incident in Romania.

"We know that Ukrainian drones have flown into Finland, Poland, and several Baltic states. The initial reaction was exactly the same as it is now in Romania. 'Oh no, the Russians are coming, it’s a Russian attack!'" Putin recalled.

While the Russian leader was being deeply ironic with his 'the Russians are coming' comment, it is true that just earlier this month NATO jets were scrambled over Estonia and shot down an errant Ukrainian-origin drone which had drifted into Baltic/EU airspace.

"We apologize to Estonia and all our Baltic friends for such unintended incidents," a Ukrainian government statement had acknowledged. "We have been and remain in close cooperation through our specialized institutions to get to the heart of the matter in each case and seek ways to prevent them, including through the direct engagement of our expert groups."

Munich Airport is operational again after an earlier potential drone sighting halted flights. The airport is currently our most disrupted airport with 33 canceled flights and 114 delays so far averaging nearly an hour. pic.twitter.com/dcmSVZ4EIZ

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) May 30, 2026

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry then deflected, calling attention to Russian actions: "Moscow does this on purpose, together with intensified propaganda," it said.

As for the spate of mystery UAV sightings over Northern and Western Europe, it's anyone's guess as to the origins. Some pundits have suggested these are merely irresponsible hobbyists, or else pranksters. However, the reality of projectiles entering neighboring countries as a result of the Ukraine war is much more serious, and a significant threat to these populations.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 07:35

Le Pen Leads Every Major Rival In New French Presidential Runoff Polling

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Marine Le Pen would beat every major rival in a second-round French presidential election runoff, according to new polling that hypothesized her eligibility to stand in the election expected in April next year.

A Toluna-Harris Interactive poll for M6 and RTL, conducted on May 27, found Le Pen ahead in all three tested runoff scenarios when she is the National Rally candidate.

The strongest result came against far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with Le Pen taking 67 percent to his 33 percent. She also defeated former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal by 54 percent to 46 percent, and former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe by 52 percent to 48 percent.

The figures are significant because Philippe and Attal are among the most prominent names in the broader Macron-aligned camp, which has long presented itself as the main barrier to a National Rally victory. Le Pen has twice lost runoff elections to Macron, back in 2017 and 2022.

Yet the poll suggests that even the strongest establishment contenders would currently fall short against Le Pen in a head-to-head vote.

France, Toluna-Harris poll:

Presidential run-off election

Le Pen (RN-PfE): 52%
Philippe (HOR-RE): 48%

Le Pen (RN-PfE): 54%
Attal (RE-RE): 46%

Le Pen (RN-PfE): 67%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 33%

Fieldwork: 25-27 May 2026
Sample size: 1,744

➤ https://t.co/qOzl2nSVPC pic.twitter.com/ZwUFcw7Ma7

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) May 29, 2026

Le Pen is currently barred from running after being handed an immediate five-year ban from public office, but she has appealed the ruling. A decision on that appeal is expected on July 7. Should she remain unable to run, National Rally president Jordan Bardella is widely expected to become the party’s presidential candidate.

That would still leave National Rally in a commanding position. Earlier polling this week showed Bardella leading the first round with 32 percent, well ahead of Philippe on 17 percent and Mélenchon on 16 percent. The same May Odoxa political barometer also showed Bardella beating Philippe in a second-round runoff by 52 percent to 48 percent, reversing the result recorded two months earlier, when Philippe had led by the same margin.

Taken together, the surveys point to a deepening problem for France’s centrist and left-wing parties. Whether the candidate is Le Pen or Bardella, the National Rally is now polling not merely as a first-round protest vehicle, but as a party capable of winning the presidency outright.

If Le Pen’s appeal succeeds, she would enter the race as the most formidable candidate in the field. If it fails, Bardella would inherit a political landscape in which the National Rally brand is already ahead of its most likely rivals.

🇫🇷 @MLP_officiel promises the French people a referendum on immigration if the National Rally candidate wins next year's presidential election.

Current polling shows both possible RN candidates, Le Pen and @J_Bardella, beating all other major rivals in a second round run-off. pic.twitter.com/X0t1RCRMec

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) May 29, 2026

On Friday, Le Pen announced her intention, should the National Rally win the presidency, to offer the French public a referendum on mass immigration.

“The French people have been betrayed. In 2027, we will restore a democratic vitality to France by returning power to the people,” she wrote on X.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 07:00

The Nocebo Effect: The Real PsyOp Behind Fake Pandemics

Authored by Mike Adams via Natural News.com,

The Nocebo Effect Is the Hidden Engine of Modern Pandemic Narratives

When authorities tell you to be afraid of a virus, your mind can make symptoms real, even when no pathogen exists. This is not conspiracy theory; it's documented science, and it has been weaponized against the public for decades. The nocebo effect -- the evil twin of the placebo -- is the key to understanding how pandemics are manufactured as psychological operations. The word "nocebo" means "I will harm" in Latin, and that's exactly what this phenomenon does: it turns negative expectations into real physical harm.

The idea that a suggestion can make you sick is as old as medicine itself, yet it has been deliberately ignored by the scientific establishment because it threatens the entire foundation of the infectious disease model. Research on the nocebo effect in the context of COVID-19 shows that the pandemic produced a "nocebodemic effect" characterized by mass negative interpretation of health services and medical treatments. When combined with the fear narrative pumped out by governments and media, this creates a perfect storm of psychogenic illness that requires no actual virus to produce symptoms. The institutions that profit from sickness have learned to weaponize this effect on a scale never seen before.

How the Nocebo Effect Works: Mind Over Matter, the Dark Side

The placebo effect demonstrates that belief can heal, but its dark twin shows that belief can also harm. In the book "Awaken the Power Within," hypnotist Del Hunter Morrill explains that suggestions create our belief systems and cultural mores, and they affect how we think, respond, and act. When suggestion is carefully engineered by those in power, it can produce real physiological effects. Consider the documented case of a patient who convinced himself he was dying after a mistaken last rites -- and actually died. That's the power of the nocebo response.

Modern research confirms that negative expectations about treatments can cause patients to experience side effects that have no biological basis. A 2017 study in The Lancet concluded that some patients experiencing adverse events while taking statins were actually suffering from a nocebo effect: when patients and doctors were aware of the statin use, reporting of adverse events was much higher than when they were unaware. The mechanism is well understood: the brain's expectation of harm triggers the release of neurotransmitters and hormones that can produce real pain, fatigue, and inflammation. The pharmaceutical industry and governments have weaponized this by flooding the public with constant warnings about symptoms, deaths, and "variants" that prime the population for mass nocebo responses.

COVID-19: The Greatest Nocebo Operation in History

The COVID-19 pandemic stands as the most extravagant mass nocebo operation ever conducted. The docuseries "The End of COVID" argues that the Wuhan coronavirus was not a real viral pandemic but a manufactured crisis, challenging the idea that diseases spread via viral transmission. My own reporting has exposed that PCR tests are fraudulent -- they cannot diagnose infection and were used as theater to convince people they were sick. The CDC's germ theory of disease collapses under scrutiny, as no pure virus has ever been isolated and shown to cause contagious illness. What we experienced was social contagion of fear, not viral contagion.

Yet there was a real toxic element: as I have repeatedly stated, chemical agents released by the Department of Defense caused genuine symptoms in some populations, but the narrative blamed a fictional virus. Then came the lethal experiments in hospitals -- using ventilators and remdesivir -- that killed patients for profit while calling it COVID. Finally, the mRNA injection was promoted as a "vaccine" but functioned as a biological weapon, with injuries later rebranded as "long COVID." The interview with Alec Zeck and Mike Winner makes clear that everything about the supposed viral evidence -- genome sequences, PCR tests, electron micrograph images -- is built upon circular reasoning and logical fallacies.

The real pandemic was not COVID; it was a pandemic of manufactured fear designed to trigger nocebo sickness on a global scale.

The Obedience Test and What It Reveals About Society

The lockdowns, mask mandates on children, social distancing decals on floors, and forced isolation were never about health. They were irrational theater designed to test how far people will go to obey authority. As I noted in an interview with Samantha Bailey, the narrative surrounding infectious diseases and pandemics provides governments and organizations like the CDC with significant control over people's lives through measures such as lockdowns, social distancing, and mandatory vaccinations. The fear generated by these narratives is a powerful tool that justifies extensive actions even when not supported by robust scientific evidence.

Throughout the COVID nocebo psyop, the world proved itself unbelievably gullible. In the span of a few months, billions of people accepted the mass suspension of civil liberties, economic destruction, and the injection of experimental gene therapies into their arms. The trauma of lockdowns and mask-wearing in schools is likely to haunt those who lived through it for many years to come. Yet the controllers are already planning the next rollout. As I warned in an interview with Thomas Renz, they are working on the next pandemic -- likely to appear around the time the WHO treaty is fully implemented. The names will change -- "Smurf virus," "Hantavirus," or something else -- but the pattern will remain the same: manufacture fear, trigger the nocebo response, demand compliance, and use the chaos to push depopulation and digital surveillance agendas.

Breaking the Spell: How to Say No to Nocebo and Protect Your Health

Your best defense against this weaponized mind-control system is simple: reject authority and embrace skepticism. Do not let fear dictate your choices. The nocebo effect is powered by negative expectations, so starve it by refusing to consume the fear porn of the corporate media. As noted in psychological research, the nocebo effect occurs when the treatment context generates negative expectancies that lead to worse health outcomes [13]. If you refuse to participate in the narrative, you refuse to give it power over your body.

I have lived this approach for decades. I take no vaccines, no prescription medications, and I avoid hospitals like the plague. Instead, I rely on natural medicine -- vitamin D, zinc, ivermectin, medicinal herbs, and real food. I eat organic, avoid processed toxins, and spend time in sunlight. My health has never been better, while those who trusted the system -- who lined up for every booster, who wore masks religiously, who cowered in fear -- have suffered and died in alarming numbers.

The principles of self-reliance, natural healing, and critical thinking are not just lifestyle choices; they are survival mechanisms in a world that is actively trying to make you sick through suggestion. Say no to nocebo. Refuse to participate in the sorcery of mass suggestion. Break the spell, and you will live longer, freer, and healthier than you ever imagined possible.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/30/2026 - 23:20