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Zero Rss

'I Have To Sit With That': Gayle King's Brain Divides By Zero After Holdout Clancy Juror Revealed As Black Man

Zero Rss
2 weeks 2 days ago
'I Have To Sit With That': Gayle King's Brain Divides By Zero After Holdout Clancy Juror Revealed As Black Man

After the media spent the last two weeks casting pent up handmaiden feminist energy at the 'male holdout' juror who caused a mistrial in the Lindsay Clancy case, "CBS Mornings" anchor Gayle King had a visible record scratch after one of the karen jurors revealed that the holdout was a black man that the white ladies virtually lynched in the town square of national dialogue for not letting Clancy off the hook for murdering her children. 

"Was the person of color a woman or a man?" King asked juror Paula Devlin, who explained how 11 members of the jury were white and one was a person of color. 

"Is the holdout juror… a person of c– a black man?" King probed further...

To which Devlin replied: "Yes" - causing King to have to 'sit with that.'

Watch:

NEW: Lindsay Clancy juror Paula Devlin reveals on 'CBS Mornings' that the lone, male holdout juror who voted to find Clancy guilty of murdering her children was the *only* person of color -- a black man.

The 11 not-guilty jurors -- who hectored him for a week to cave -- were all… pic.twitter.com/5qirHNGCyx

— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) September 11, 2026

Reminder - this wasn't just a black man, it was an arrogant black man.

Female jurors in the Lindsay Clancy trial FUME over the lone male holdout: “He was very arrogant. He just completely disregarded the information they gave.” pic.twitter.com/3TF0SrlG6t

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) September 8, 2026

Needless to say, it's all anyone's talking about today...

"The other jurors have spent all week calling the lone male holdout an arrogant, uncooperative dummy who didn’t understand the law or follow the rules. Now we come to find out that they were talking about the only black guy in the room this whole time. Leftists have accidentally sided with 11 white bullies against a black man who stood up to them. Just an absolutely amazing twist. You couldn’t script it any better," said the Daily Wire's Matt Walsh, who had several great takes. 

This is amazing. The Left has been trashing this guy all week only to find out that he was the only black person on the jury, getting hounded by bossy white women. Just perfect. https://t.co/yooCcogaU8

— Matt Walsh (@MattWalshBlog) September 11, 2026

This comedy skit is priceless now listen to the end pic.twitter.com/Olf4LXLQ82

— MoonriseBill (@MoonriseBill) September 11, 2026

The Left trying to figure out how to smear the lone holdout juror in the Lindsay Clancy trial now that they know it was a black man.pic.twitter.com/XJnIGRksvz

— C3 (@C_3C_3) September 11, 2026

This is so much better knowing the hold out juror is a black man. pic.twitter.com/eKkzkvlEQ8

— Rosie Memos (@almostjingo) September 11, 2026

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 16:15
Tyler Durden

DHS Proposes Quickly Removing Visa Holders After Job Loss

Zero Rss
2 weeks 2 days ago
DHS Proposes Quickly Removing Visa Holders After Job Loss

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is floating the end of a 60-day grace period that currently allows some immigrants to remain in the United States after they lose their jobs.

U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin speaks during a news conference in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, on July 17, 2026. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Immigrants with temporary work visas such as H-1B visas would have to immediately leave the country if they no longer have a job, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said in a proposed rule filed on Sept. 10 and set to be formally published in the Federal Register on Sept. 11.

Such visas are contingent on an immigrant's employment, and a company sponsors the employee. Some of the visas are granted only to workers who have specialized expertise.

DHS originally provided the grace period to encourage immigrants who no longer have jobs to remain in the United States and try to obtain another form of legal status or get another job, Mullin said. But rulemakers did not sufficiently consider the negative effects of the grace period, such as burdening immigration officers who handle additional paperwork from visa holders during the time period, he said.

"DHS now believes that once the alien is no longer fulfilling the very specific conditions under which he or she was admitted or otherwise provided status, such status, as well as the authorization to remain in the United States, should definitively cease and the impacted alien should immediately depart the United States (unless otherwise authorized to lawfully remain in the United States)," he wrote.

"This is generally consistent with the requirements for aliens admitted or otherwise provided status in other non-immigrant categories when the alien fails to fulfill the very specific conditions under which he or she was admitted or otherwise provided status."

If finalized, the change could cause thousands of jobs to not be filled by specialty foreign workers, DHS estimates.

The department is presuming that the companies looking to fill the jobs "will either offer the same jobs to equally qualified U.S. workers or go through the I-129 petition process depending on their workforce requirement," the notice said, referring to the process of bringing foreign workers to the United States.

"In some situations, aliens who have gone abroad can be readmitted for employment if the I-129 petition filed on their behalf is approved and the alien is admissible. Even though these petitioners would witness a temporary loss of productivity, they might be able to gain U.S. workers for the positions that were generally offered to ... nonimmigrants during the possible grace period," the notice reads.

The proposal will be available online on Sept. 11. Parties can comment on the proposal for 60 days. Officials will then decide whether to finalize it, potentially with alterations in response to comments.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 15:10
Tyler Durden

Trump & Hegseth Try To Tie Iran To 9/11 At Pentagon Ceremony

Zero Rss
2 weeks 2 days ago
Trump & Hegseth Try To Tie Iran To 9/11 At Pentagon Ceremony

The two main 9/11 ceremonies on Friday marking 25 years since the terror attacks were held at Ground Zero in New York City and the Pentagon in Washington DC. President Trump attended the latter while VP JD Vance was present at the former.

War Secretary Pete Hegseth also helped lead remembrance events at the Pentagon, but at the annual NYC commemoration, Vance appeared to keep a lower profile while listening from the audience to names being read out.

Trump and Hegseth in their respective addresses tried to tie the ongoing Iran war to Sept. 11, 2001. They both sough to frame current Iran action as a continuation of the Global War on Terror.

"We salute the service members working right now to ensure the world's number one sponsor of terror, the Islamic Republic of Iran, will never ever have a nuclear weapon," Trump said at the Pentagon.

via Associated Press

As for Hegseth, he spoke just ahead of the president and said that US forces remain "vigilant" against the "Islamic theocracy" in Iran.

"Our warriors have fought an Islamic theocracy that has wished us death for nearly half a century, that cheered on 9/11," he said.

"A regime that has sponsored terrorist attacks against Americans for decades, killing thousands, including our comrades in Iraq and Afghanistan. But they did not factor in this president," the Pentagon chief continued.

"We’re still sending terrorists where they belong — to hell — and tankers to the bottom of the ocean, where they belong," Hegseth added. "And we are ensuring that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon."

Ironically it was close American ally Saudi Arabia which actually factors in most directly to the 9/11 tragedy, and family members of victims have filed a lawsuit against the kingdom for state-level and intelligence complicity in the terror attacks.

The majority of the 9/11 hijackers were from Saudi Arabia, and each and every one of them was a Sunni Muslim. As for Iran, it is a historic enemy of the Sunni Saudi kingdom and practices Shia Islam, which Riyadh considers 'heretical'.

Trying to link Iran to 9/11 also has a whiff of Bush-era propaganda to it. Not only did some NeoCon pundits at the time try to link Tehran to it, but a major talking point was also a far-fetched 'Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda alliance'.

Of course, Saddam was a secular Ba'athist autocrat and historically sought to persecute radical fundamentalist sects. Still, Iraq got invaded on the heels of Afghanistan and Saddam was overthrown by US forces.

More recently, in the last decade of the Syria proxy war, Iranian officers and Shia militias were typically the ones along the front lines fighting ISIS and other Sunni jihad movements. The latter were often sponsored by the Gulf states as well as US intelligence. When it comes to the Middle East and Washington policy, nothing is ever as it seems.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 14:35
Tyler Durden

Sweden Discovers That Deporting Immigrant Gangsters Reduces Crime...

Zero Rss
2 weeks 2 days ago
Sweden Discovers That Deporting Immigrant Gangsters Reduces Crime...

Authored by Mike McDaniel via AmericanThinker.com,

Among the things a police career taught me is that a small number—usually single digits—of felons commit most felonies. They’ll draw in other criminals, involve them in their crimes, and when convenient, abandon them to arrest. There is no honor among thieves. And the number of the most prolific felons increases and decreases slightly from place to place, and in relation to the specific type of crime.

In some places, crooks specialize in home or business burglaries. In others, specialization might involve burglarizing vehicles or carjacking.

But one thing is certain: take these small bands of crooks out of circulation, and the number of their crimes in those areas immediately, dramatically plummets. The trick is identifying the crooks and rolling them over on each other. Catch some in the act or with the evidence, and the second part is usually easier than the first. When they’re put away, innumerable people we’ll never know don’t end up as victims.

Of course, these kinds of positive results also rely on prosecutors willing to prosecute and judges willing to keep criminals in jail and hand down realistic sentences. That’s a real issue in blue cities and states.

Now it seems Sweden is discovering this reality, particularly where gang-committed, immigrant crime is involved. And it’s about time too. Reports out of Sweden, which has shown suicidal empathy for third-world barbarians, indicate that hand grenade(?!) attacks have become common. At PJ Media, Stephen Green explains:

So Sweden elected a conservative prime minister four years ago who promised to send criminal migrants back to their home countries, and you'll never believe what happened next.

Violent crime went down. Way down. Particularly gang violence, according to a new report out this week.

Imagine that.

Graphic: X Post

When he campaigned for the PM spot in 2022, Ulf Kristersson — then a member of the Swedish parliament or riksdag — said of violent acts: "If you commit such crimes in Sweden and are not a Swedish citizen, you should be thrown out of the country.”

Apparently, Swedes got tired of dodging grenades and having their women raped.

By the summer of '22, escalating gang shootings and even bombings were commonplace in what had once been a country better known for spas than jihads. In total, Sweden suffered 361 shootings, 62 shooting deaths, and 90 bombings. The problem with migrant gangs escalated so quickly that Swedish authorities didn't bother to record bombings until 2018.

By the last election, even the governing soft-on-crime Social Democrats promised tougher measures, but that wasn't enough to stop Kristersson from putting together a coalition big enough to oust the SD.

Sweden didn’t bother to report bombings until 2018? That’s terminal suicidal empathy, but the Swedes had enough. They better funded the police, did more wiretapping, and directly focused on stopping gang recruitment among the young.

As it turns out — and again, you won't be shocked by this — sending foreign criminals home is just as effective as locking up homegrown thugs. But the numbers must be seen to be believed. 

Shootings are down "by 80 per cent since their 2022 peak," the Financial Times reported on Monday, and Kristersson reduced "the number of asylum seekers to its lowest in four decades."

It was apparently a huge deal earlier this year when one Swedish paper reported "No shootings in May."

“The fact that you have headlines saying no shootings at all this month: it says something,” Kristersson told the FT.

Sadly, the national tendency toward suicide may once again assert itself:

Still, Sweden holds another national election on Sunday, and the Social Democrats could very well take power again. “There’s a lot of discussion about the Winston Churchill effect,” Mattias Karlsson, the nationalist Sweden Democrats' chief ideologue, said.

Having all but won the war, will Swedish voters reject the man who got them this far?

The “Churchill effect” refers to what happened to Winston Churchill after WWII. Without him, England likely would have fallen to the Nazis. He was, during the war, the indispensable man, but once the war was won, he was put out to pasture, and the kinds of political forces that would have lost the war wormed their way back into power.

Having once again discovered the benefits of national sanity, Will Sweden fall back into leftist delusion and defeat? Perhaps there’s a lesson there for our midterms and beyond.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 14:00
Tyler Durden

Watch: 9/11 Widow Goes Off Script, Blasts Saudi Arabia For Complicity During Ground Zero Ceremony

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
Watch: 9/11 Widow Goes Off Script, Blasts Saudi Arabia For Complicity During Ground Zero Ceremony

We have for many years carefully followed and documented what has emerged in the over two decades since the 9/11 attacks concerning Saudi state complicity. Families of 9/11 victims have long had a lawsuit pending against Saudi government. The kingdom's intel officials show up in all kinds of declassified documents, and there remain plenty of unanswered questions concerning several other shady individuals.

On Friday during the 25th anniversary memorial service for 9/11 at Ground Zero in New York City there was an incredibly rare moment in which the widow of a victim broke from the script and openly called for 9/11 truth and justice. When she called out Saudi Arabia, a close US ally whose highest intel officials were frequently seen with then President George W. Bush (see "Bandar Bush"), it elicited applause from the crowd.

A 9/11 widow just rent rogue in NYC…

She read her husbands name and then called out Islamic terror and Saudi Arabia.

She called out Bush, Obama, Biden and JD Vance/Trump while they sat right in front of her. The entire crowd at ground zero cheered. pic.twitter.com/xICEZL6FOv

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) September 11, 2026

"For 25 years, administration after administration, including leaders in front of us here today, chose to protect the Saudis instead of standing with the 9/11 families," Terry Strada, whose husband Tom Strada - a bond broker - was killed in the north tower of the World Trade Center, stated.

"They withheld evidence," Strada continued. "They vetoed JASTA [Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act]. They broke promises, both public and private. It has been one betrayal after another."

She called on the Trump administration to "tell the Saudis to stop lying" and to "Tell them that if they want to be friends with the USA, they cannot continue to deny all of this, all of the pain, all of the destruction that we have all been suffering through."

Former presidents & officials were present, Getty Images

Axios reports additionally that:

Another man participating in reading the names of the victims also appealed to Trump to "release the unredacted files that implicate Saudi Arabia while what's left of the victims' families are still alive to see it."

The oil-rich nation has long fought ongoing claims from victims' families, but last year, a federal judge determined that enough evidence existed to infer the kingdom employed two operatives to assist the hijackers, Axios' Marc Caputo previously reported.

Vice President JD Vance was in attendance for the Friday Ground Zero Memorial while President Trump led events at the Pentagon, which was also attacked on that tragic day.

🚨WATCH: Vice President JD Vance listens as 9/11 victims' family members call for an investigation into Saudi Arabia's alleged role in the attacks.

🎥:C-SPAN pic.twitter.com/6cClIH4DA5

— Off The Press (@OffThePress1) September 11, 2026

Strada expressed appreciation for Vance attending the event and urged him to "carry that message back" to the president.

The United States and Saudi Arabia have been essentially tied at the hip for many decades of what can be called a long-running and institutionalized "oil for guns" relationship. The Saudis also helped Washington topple Assad in Syria, and host an array of US bases and closely work with US intelligence.

*  *  *

Meanwhile, in Epstein's very interesting art collection...

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 13:25
Tyler Durden

This Time Is Different? Earnings & Price Break 90-Year Trends

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
This Time Is Different? Earnings & Price Break 90-Year Trends

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

September, so far, is living up to its reputation. The market slipped to the 50-day moving average, with the tape taking orders from crude oil. For the week, crude rose about 9% over four sessions, which pulled the 10-year Treasury yield higher right along with it, closing just under 5%. The corners of the market that hate higher rates slid while the S&P 500 dipped 0.68% to close the week at 7,666. However, that rather lackluster headline conveniently hides the real story beneath it.

Take a look at the spread between markets. Small caps fell 2.38% while the Dow dropped 1.51%. The equal-weight S&P index gave up 1.87% while the cap-weighted index, by contrast, lost less than a point. The Nasdaq-100 barely budged, declining just 0.52%. When the average stock falls three times as hard as the index, leadership is narrowing, not broadening. As we have flagged in recent notes on the AI complex, a market carried by a handful of names runs with a thin margin for error.

Of course, the big news this week was the inflation data, which gave the bond market the excuse it needed. Headline CPI ran at 3.4% over the past year, and remains sticky, while core CPI remained at 2.4%, just above the Fed’s target.

On the producer price side, inflation told a louder story, with PPI jumping 0.4% on the month and the annual rate accelerating to 5.4% from 4.8%. However, that number, while higher than expected, will be revised lower with the benchmark revisions at the end of the month.

Overall, it was goods pricing that did the damage, which rose 1.1%, with diesel alone leaping 24%. Even core producer prices printed at 4.6%. However, while the bond market was jolted, the reality is that this was an oil shock rather than a sign of an overheating economy. The former doesn’t justify a Fed rate hike; the latter would. Neither report was a disaster, but neither one gives the Fed a clean reason to hike rates.

On a cross-asset review, the moves fit a “rate scare.” Gold fell, the dollar remained flat, and volatility lifted off its lows without anything close to panic. However, the real story remained below the surface in the cyclical and rate-sensitive groups, which dragged lower all week.

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday next week, with the market still leaning toward a quarter-point hike. Firm headline inflation and a crude oil spike are not the backdrop a central bank is likely to hike into, particularly with a softening labor market.

Watch the long end into the decision. If oil keeps running and the 10-year pushes above 5%, the multiple on this market gets much harder to defend. The narrow leadership that propped everything up all summer would be the first thing to give way, which wouldn’t be a surprising outcome for the month of September heading into the midterm election cycle.

💰 This Time Is Different?

For every secular bull market, there is an eventual secular bear market. The next leg of the full-market cycle inevitably begins where everyone believes “this time is different.” There were two important charts this past week that should at least lend a momentary pause. The first was from Ned Davis Research, showing the market (on a log scale) is now trading above the upper limit of its long-term trend. The previous extreme was in early 2000, for reference.

Secondly, corporate earnings just broke above a trend that had contained them for more than 90 years.

Currently, it is not surprising that, given the advancement of AI, surging earnings growth, and bullish markets, investors inevitably come to believe that “this time is different.” The question we want to explore today is “Is it really different this time,” or just a normal secular cycle playing out in real time?  

Earlier this month, I argued the AI bears are right about the excess but may be wrong on the trade. So let’s put the bull case on trial and see what holds.

What’s Actually Driving The Breakout

Let’s start with the good news, because there is plenty of it. Second-quarter S&P 500 earnings grew roughly 31% year over year on an adjusted basis, well ahead of the 23% the Street had penciled in before the season. Bloomberg calls it the strongest non-recession-recovery profit growth in its data going back to 1992. AI infrastructure did most of the heavy lifting. By BlackRock’s math, AI-related names drove close to 60% of the index’s earnings growth, and three hyperscalers account for roughly 70% of what analysts expect for the full year.ar.

Yes, there are reasons to be skeptical of the earnings growth, such as one-time investment gains that are boosting the numbers. However, there is a part that the bears keep glossing over. The rest of the index is finally pulling its weight as well. When you strip out energy, and the AI build, and the other roughly 490 companies still grew earnings 14% in the second quarter, a number that would headline most years on its own. The “broadening” everyone keeps asking for is finally showing up in the profit data itself, not the hope column.

This rally is earnings-led, not multiple-led, and that single fact is what separates it from 2000. Look at the revisions. Forward earnings estimates have climbed for most of the year, while the forward multiple has drifted lower. Price has been chasing profits, not the other way around. Hyperscaler capital spending is running north of $700 billion this year, up more than 80%, funded out of cash flow rather than junk debt. Furthermore, the hyperscaler capex is REAL. The question was never whether the spending exists. The question is what you pay to own the earnings it produces.

The Pain Trade Still Points Higher

However, the real risk to the bear case lies in the sentiment. You have a market compounding 30% earnings growth, and investors are positioned as if a recession just started. Sentiment across both the AAII survey and Goldman’s own indicator sits firmly bearish. Nasdaq-100 short interest is up 35% since June. A sharp third-quarter de-grossing has pushed fundamental long/short net leverage into the 6th percentile of the past year, gross tech exposure sits in the 43rd percentile, and roughly $163 billion in cash is parked on the sidelines waiting for a pullback that refuses to arrive.

Of course, the obvious is: “If everyone is already bearish, isn’t that itself the bullish tell?” The answer to that is “mostly, yes.” Strong earnings, light positioning, elevated shorts, and a mountain of idle cash are the exact ingredients of a “pain trade” that grinds higher and forces the underinvested to chase. Such is the setup that keeps me long into the highs even while I distrust them.

A good example is that single-stock short interest just hit its highest level in more than fifteen years. Every one of those shorts is a future buyer the moment the tape refuses to break. That’s fuel, not a warning, at least for now. The warning is in the next section.

The Asterisk On “This Time Is Different”

Here’s the problem with the clean bull story. The multiple only looks reasonable because it’s sitting on peak earnings. The S&P trades near 25.6 times trailing profits. That runs above the long-run average, and it runs above the typical reading at prior bull-market peaks. The Shiller CAPE just hit 41, its 96th percentile since 1980, a zone AQR ties to something like 3.9% annual returns over the next decade.

While there is a lot of focus on the market price, the risk was never really the “P.” It’s the “E.” When earnings break above a trend that held for ninety years, they are, by definition, above trend. And above-trend things are the things that mean-revert. A “reasonable” forward multiple computed on earnings that later prove to be a cycle peak is one of the oldest traps in the book. Such is the quiet danger in every “this time is different” market: the story is usually true right up until the math stops cooperating.

How These Breakouts Usually End

As we have discussed previously, Bob Farrell’s Rule #4 has aged well for a reason. “Exponential moves,” he wrote, “usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.” That’s the uncomfortable geometry of a breakout above a nine-decade trend. It can extend beyond the skeptics’ ability to stay solvent, and it can still end with a snap rather than a slow drift back. Both things are true at once.

So, in my view, there are only two ways this will eventually resolve, and the market is currently pricing the first option with near 100% certainty.

  1. Either AI capital spending converts into durable returns and record margins hold, in which case earnings grow into the price, and the bull runs on. Or,
  2. Capex depreciation starts hitting the income statement, AI demand hits an air pocket, margins normalize, and profits fall back toward the trend they just escaped.

Here is the most important point. Whatever event causes the “E” to revert towards its long-term mean, the “P” will be repriced lower. I laid out the arithmetic of that second path in Why Crashes, Timing and Valuations Still Matter, and the math is unforgiving.

Nothing about a valid breakout tells you which path you’re on until you’re well down it. That’s precisely why you don’t have to pick. You participate in the move while it runs, and you pre-commit to the exit before it ends.

 What Next?

I will tell you one thing: you have to give the bulls their credit. This past week was the perfect setup for a sharp sell-off in the market.  Corporate buybacks are sidelined, interest rates spiked, and oil surged, pushing inflation higher. If there was ever a case for a pullback, it was this past week. Nonetheless, the correction that we have discussed over the last two weeks stopped right where the first line of support sits. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,666, down 0.68%. The part that matters happened on Thursday, with the index trading down to 7,595 and closing dead on its 50-day moving average near 7,600. That was our initial downside target, and the market met it up to that point before Friday’s bounce lifted the price back above the line.

While the 50-DMA held on the first test, overall momentum remains another matter. RSI sits at 50.9, dead neutral, down from the high-50s a week ago. The MACD signal has crossed below its signal line, keeping downward pressure in place into the end of the quarter. Furthermore, the histogram has turned negative, adding to our caution. While the market held support, it did so with weakening momentum, which is the definition of an undecided tape.

From our vantage point, the breadth story is the bigger worry. The equal-weight S&P fell almost three times as hard as the cap-weighted index this past week. Most notably, it was small caps that led the whole thing lower, with volume telling the same story. Of course, the spike in crude oil didn’t help and forced the heaviest selling in the rate-sensitive names, rather than the index leaders. As noted, breadth is the key to a sustainable bull market rally. The current breadth is a warning, but not yet a sell signal.

This coming week keeps our focus on risk management. From that standpoint, we continue to recommend trimming the most extended winners back toward model weight into any push toward the old highs, rather than chasing them. The 50-DMA near 7,600 is the support line that decides our next moves. If we hold it, and the uptrend off the spring lows stays intact, we can keep exposures near normal levels. However, if we lose that support on a closing basis, the next real floor sits much lower at the 200-DMA near 7,158. We suggest keeping some dry powder heading into the Fed rate decision and next Friday’s option expiration.

Heading into the end of the month and the quarter, there is one level that dictates portfolio strategy into October. A weekly close back above 7,796, the August record, says the buyers have reclaimed control. A close below 7,600 signals that the 50-DMA has failed and that the market wants deeper support. Everything in between is noise. And next week brings two catalysts big enough to force the break. Trade the level, not the narrative.

🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week

As mentioned throughout the commentary so far, there are two key events next week, and both are large enough to set the tone for the quarter. More importantly, they land 48 hours apart.

The first is the Fed. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday. The decision, a fresh set of projections, and Warsh’s press conference all hit on Wednesday afternoon. The market still leans toward a rate hike. However, as noted above, I think this week’s data made the call harder, not easier. A central bank does not like hiking into a 3.4% headline inflation print that was primarily a function of a temporary crude spike, so the real story on Wednesday may be who dissented, rather than the lack of a rate hike.

The second catalyst is purely mechanical. Next Friday brings the options and futures expiration, known as “quad-witching,” which occurs four times a year.  Notably, this one is set up to be a record in size, which is unsurprising given the surge in options trading in the markets over the last couple of years. However, historically, expirations this large can pin price to the big strikes. Then they release it hard once they clear. Layer that on a Fed decision 48 hours earlier, and the week has a real setup for an outsized move.

The economic calendar around the Fed is full. Retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, the regional Fed surveys, and weekly jobless claims all print across the week. Retail sales carry the most weight. Consumer resilience is the last leg holding the soft-landing story together. A soft print would land badly, coming the morning after the Fed. There are no Fed speakers on the slate. The pre-meeting blackout window sees to that.

Earnings are thin in the gap between quarters, which gives macroeconomic data much greater weight. FedEx is the marquee large-cap report, worth a look as a read on shipping demand and the industrial economy on Friday.

The asymmetric risk is a hawkish surprise from the Fed. Whether the market is priced for a hike remains to be seen. However, if Warsh delivers a hike, the rate-sensitive trade may have already priced it in, along with the bond market. In other words, a rate hike might turn out to be a relief for bond traders after all.

What Should Investors Do Now

So, what does all this mean for your portfolio heading into next week? Mostly, nothing. However, over the longer-term time frame (next few quarters to a couple of years), this is where the two halves of the argument stop fighting and start cooperating. Is “this time different?” Most likely not.

First, the near-term evidence remains bullish. Both momentum and washed-out positioning suggest that investors remain invested for now. However, the longer-term evidence, including price action, stretched valuations, and above-trend earnings, clearly suggests that stronger risk management protocols should be implemented.

The reality is that you can hold both views without contradiction, and from our view, you should.

It isn’t a difficult plan to implement; it just requires a willingness to potentially give up some gains if that market moves higher near term, which is likely. Ride the trend, harvest the winners back to weight, spread into the parts of the market that are cheaper and finally growing, keep real ballast in bonds and cash, and write down your sell discipline today while your head is clear, rather than in the middle of the reset.

Will that keep you from giving back some of the last leg of the move? Yes. Will it keep you from riding a ninety-year breakout all the way back into the channel it came from? Also yes. I’ll take that trade.

The trend is your friend, right up until the bend at the very end. Position for the friend. Prepare for the bend.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 12:50
Tyler Durden

Beijing Threatens To Cancel Trump-Xi Summit If US Approves New Arms Sales To Taiwan

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
Beijing Threatens To Cancel Trump-Xi Summit If US Approves New Arms Sales To Taiwan

Chinese President Xi Jinping used today's 18th BRICS Summit to push for a greater diplomatic role in Gulf affairs. The move appears to be transforming the bloc's economic weight into geopolitical influence, really positioning it as a counterweight to US foreign policy.

Beijing's leverage also rests on its control over rare-earth and other critical-material supply chains, as it maintains a "quasi-monopolistic" grip on the industry that will persist through the end of the decade.

Keeping that leverage in mind, Japanese news outlet Kyodo News reported that Beijing threatened earlier today to cancel the summit with President Trump in Washington if the US approves new arms sales to Taiwan.

Kyodo stated:

China has told the United States that it intends to cancel a planned meeting between their leaders later this month if Washington approves any new arms sales to Taiwan by then, multiple sources familiar with bilateral ties said Saturday.

U.S. President Donald Trump, apparently eager to showcase some diplomatic achievements ahead of November's midterm congressional elections, places great importance on holding the summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

While preparing for Xi's upcoming trip, China has restated its position that the Taiwan issue is a "red line" in bilateral relations, sources said.

The report comes ahead of Xi's planned summit with Trump at the White House on September 24. The threat is another obstacle for the administration as it seeks to maintain an already fragile diplomatic and trade truce amid worsening relations over the Gulf conflict.

Polymarket traders appear unfazed by the Kyodo report, with Xi still leading the "Who will Trump meet with in September?" market at 95% and odds showing little reaction to the reported threat.

Taiwan arms sales have already emerged as a critical focal point for both superpowers. After meeting Xi in May, Trump declined to commit to approving another weapons package, while Beijing warned that mishandling Taiwan could spark a conflict.

A late-August report cited by Taiwan's main English-language daily newspaper, the Taipei Times, said that China had deployed a record 244 coast guard, research, and other government vessels around the island amid mounting fears of a blockade next year.

"Might be the first in history to see a power play coming from China when it comes to this. Not because they want, but because they can. One of the main reasons would be because of the control they have over critical minerals US has to pick which front to focus on- China or Iran," Teo Sinamin, who runs a Substack focused on rare earths, wrote on X.

Might be the first in history to see power play coming from China when it comes to this.

Not because they want,but because they can.

One of the main reasons would be because of the control they have over critical minerals

US has to pick which front to focus on- China or Iran https://t.co/VIyOSuHaOp

— Teo (@Teo_Sinamin) September 12, 2026

Sinamin continued ...

Greenest Monday ever for critical minerals https://t.co/tgxwyZj1jo

— Teo (@Teo_Sinamin) September 12, 2026

A further deterioration in US-China relations could trigger tighter export licensing or renewed restrictions on critical materials, intensifying pressure on Western industrial and defense supply chains. This issue resurfaced earlier this month when Reuters reported that some Chinese rare-earth suppliers refused shipments to US customers for fear of repercussions from Beijing.

The ongoing disruption supports the bullish investment case for reducing dependence on China, with junior miners and established producers offering alternative supplies. That is certainly the talk among private equity and hedge funds to date. Further escalation could push the decoupling theme to the forefront across the investing world, as these critical-material supply chains are the building blocks for AI data center buildouts, electrification upgrades, reindustrialization, and the upcoming rearmament cycle.

The strongest beneficiaries would likely be companies that can deliver ex-China supplies at scale in time to ease Western shortages as demand soars for the reasons mentioned above.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 12:15
Tyler Durden

Gen Z Has No Idea What 9/11 Is

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
Gen Z Has No Idea What 9/11 Is

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Twenty-five years after Islamist hijackers murdered 2,977 people on American soil, a young man in Lower Manhattan looked at 2,977 memorial drones drawing the towers in the night sky and asked why anyone would build a "fake" building.

He called the Tribute in Light the "Batman signal."

This is what happens when media and universities treat the Islamist nature of the attack as a political embarrassment instead of a fact.

?? Young American outraged by a 9/11 memorial action

2,977 drones, one for each victim, went up at once to draw a full-size silhouette full-size silhouette in the sky over Lower Manhattan.

The man did not understand what was going on and sharply commented: "We have enough... pic.twitter.com/6gkGbIbpRt

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 11, 2026

"We have enough buildings, bro. Why are they making a fake one?" The guy filming the video states.

Critics assert that education about the September 11 2001 attacks has been avoided due to the Islamist nature of the terror attack, leaving large parts of Gen Z with almost no knowledge of what happened that fateful morning.

Gen Z's indifference to Sept. 11 is inexcusable | RESTORING AMERICA by @SouthernKeeks https://t.co/vscKWQag7k

— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) September 11, 2026

Washington Examiner columnist Kimberly Ross called the indifference inexcusable. Younger Americans cannot be blamed for being born after 2001, she wrote, but they can be charged with treating the day as a bother.

"If you have the immense privilege of calling yourself an American, you have a duty to understand both the scope of loss and how it forced a titanic shift in our national perspective," she writes, noting that the dead, the jumpers, Flight 93, Todd Beamer's "let's roll" cannot be treated as optional educational content.

The vacuum is not accidental. Fairfax County Public Schools in Virginia told teachers not to "associate the 9/11 attacks with Islam or Muslims" and not to "center the extremists."

Roughly half of that district's commemorative guide is devoted to "safe spaces" for Muslim students.

Penn GSE's "Teaching Beyond 9/11" curriculum, pushed into New York City schools and several state education departments, gives the attacks themselves a single paragraph, says the United States merely "accused" Osama bin Laden, and then piles on units about Islamophobia, right-wing extremism, and "avenues for solidarity."

Only a handful of states mandate real instruction. Texas just approved language tying "radical Islam" to the attacks; Democrats on the board called it an outrage.

One Navy veteran put the motive in the open:

What should be taught in every single American school is intentionally hidden and lied about by our own education system. They don't want them to know Muslims were responsible for thousands killed that day and years after by war. That's why people are stupidly voting for them,...

— megourd1967 (@ProudUSNvet67) September 11, 2026

Others expressed consternation about the lack of knowledge among Gen Z:

If they don't even know history from 25 years ago, what do they know?

— Creature of Habit2 (@CreatureHabit2) September 11, 2026

Generation Z is a disaster. They are completely out of touch and stupid. They respect nothing and don't study their own history.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
George Santayana.

— Roger Pellegrini (@Pellegrini_RG) September 11, 2026

Media and universities are to blame, yes. But where TF are the parents on this? If my kids had no idea 9/11 even happened, I have failed. It's kind of a big deal..

— TheArmedGardener (@Cheeky1iam) September 11, 2026

While that ignorance played out over Manhattan, New York's first Muslim mayor, Zohran Mamdani, stood at Ground Zero after families and first responders spent weeks begging him to stay away.

Giovanni Galante, whose wife Grace was killed in the North Tower, organized a petition that passed 100,000 signatures. "We don't believe in what he believes in, and we really want us to be left alone," Galante said. "This 25th anniversary is for victims and survivors... not have a circus around us."

Charles Wolf, who lost his wife, said: "This mayor is not serving us. He's serving himself." Monica Iken asked him to "respect us from 7 to 11 and let us have our mourning." Cheri Sparacio, whose husband Tom died on the 84th floor of the South Tower, pointed to Mamdani's chief counsel, Ramzi Kassem, who previously represented a convicted al-Qaeda operative.

City Councilwoman Vickie Paladino demanded he "not show his face at that sacred ground." The Port Authority Retired Police Association, which lost 37 officers that morning, told him the day was "not a political occasion, a photo opportunity, or a platform."

He came anyway. Cameras then caught him laughing with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while family members read the names of the dead.

They're Showing You EXACTLY Who They Are...

Mourner Walter Matuza, whose father was killed and who helped push the petition, said: "He showed up anyway. It does bother us." Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani had already said Mamdani's presence "offends" him and that the mayor "stands in direct support of the movement that killed their children."

Andy Ngo documented another face of the same contempt a few blocks and a few hours from the names: a trans 'activist' who regularly dances at Pride events ripping pages from a Bible at a 9/11 "direct action."

NYC (Sept. 11) — A trans activist who regularly dances at Pride events rips out pages of the Bible at a 9/11 direct action. pic.twitter.com/6qtsAyaIzO

— Andy Ngo (@MrAndyNgo) September 11, 2026

Sick. Just sick.

Meanwhile, 9/11 families have once again demanded release of files that the deep state has spent a quarter-century ducking. Terry Strada, after reading her husband Tom's name, asked: "How can it be 25 years and still we have no justice for the role that Saudi Arabia played in your murder?"

She said families had "proved that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia fomented a rancid culture of anti-American terrorism" and sent agents to support the hijackers. "For 25 years, administration after administration... chose to protect the Saudis instead of standing with the 9/11 families." She told Vice President JD Vance: "Stand with the families. Stand with the survivors. Stand with Americans."

The nephew of Lisa Marie Terry said: "For 25 years, the Deep State has hidden the truth about what happened 25 years ago. President Trump, you're our last hope. Release the unredacted files that implicate Saudi Arabia, while what's left of the victims' families are still alive to see it."

9/11 Family Members Demand Trump Admin Release Docs 'Deep State Has Hidden'

A generation that cannot identify a silhouette of the towers has no grounding in modern American society. A school system that treats "Islamophobia" as the real lesson of 9/11 will not produce one.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 11:40
Tyler Durden

"Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda": Hillary Clinton Gives Flippant Answer When Pressed On Patriot Act Support

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
"Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda": Hillary Clinton Gives Flippant Answer When Pressed On Patriot Act Support

Hillary Clinton attempted to wave off criticism of her post-9/11 votes this week, telling a Columbia University audience that Monday-morning quarterbacking carries its own bias and that relitigating the Patriot Act does little good.

The former secretary of state, who teaches crisis decision-making at Columbia's Institute of Global Politics, was pressed by a moderator on whether Americans were "served well" by the Patriot Act and the Authorization for Use of Military Force, and on what she remembered about the deliberations.

https://x.com/kenklippenstein/status/2098234790692446256?s=20

— Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) September 2026

"I think what you just heard is such a reminder about how difficult decision-making is in the midst of a crisis," Clinton said, speaking at a Columbia SIPA Institute of Global Politics panel titled "The 9/11 Attacks 25 Years Later: Lessons Learned, Lessons Forgotten."

"And that's the course that the dean and I teach every day, or every week, because hindsight is always perfect."

"But it's got as much bias as anything else. And so looking back and saying shoulda, coulda, woulda doesn't really help us," the failed presidential candidate added.

Clinton was a freshman senator from New York when hijacked airliners slammed into the World Trade Center towers in her home state. Clinton joined 97 colleagues in voting for the USA Patriot Act that October. Then-Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) was the lone no.

Days earlier, the Senate had cleared the AUMF 98-0. Across the Capitol, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) stood alone as the only member of Congress to vote against it.

That authorization became the legal blank check for roughly two decades of American military adventurism spanning multiple wars in the Middle East and multiple administrations, power lawmakers in both parties have since tried, and failed, to claw back.Gives 

The Patriot Act's Section 215, the so-called "business records" provision, became the legal foundation for the National Security Agency's bulk collection of American phone records, a program the public learned about only in 2013 through the Edward Snowden leaks. Congress scaled it back with the USA Freedom Act in 2015. The authority finally lapsed in March 2020.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 11:40
Tyler Durden

Left-Wing Media Doxxes And Attacks Black "Rogue" Lindsay Clancy Juror

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
Left-Wing Media Doxxes And Attacks Black "Rogue" Lindsay Clancy Juror

Critics say they have never seen a more egregious example of political groups and the media attempting to expose and destroy a juror for not making the decision they wanted. 

During the Lindsay Clancy trial Judge William Sullivan sealed the identities of all 12 jurors until at least September 18th, citing safety concerns after the high-profile trial.   An incident in which a woman was arrested for allegedly attempting to film and intimidate the jury added weight to the decision.  Deranged feminist activists have been rallying for weeks hoping to manipulate the outcome of deliberations in favor of Clancy, a mother who brutally strangled her three small children and then claimed "postpartum psychosis" as a defense.  

The announcement of a mistrial due to one male juror triggered a rabid fervor among leftist wine moms, leading to immediate calls for the juror to be doxxed, harassed and potentially "punished" for his refusal to conform to the wishes of the rest of the jury.  Evidence suggests that a pro-Clancy group formed very early in the deliberations process, and this group pressured the few holdouts to give in.  Only one man remained.  

Lindsay Clancy juror Paula Devlin tells @gayleking that the holdout juror was a Black man, whom she estimates is in his 30s. Devlin says after watching a video of an interview with Clancy, the holdout juror “realized that it wasn’t murder in the first degree,” adding the jury… pic.twitter.com/ZxFa2hgSsY

— CBS Mornings (@CBSMornings) September 11, 2026

The problem for the political left?  The juror is black, and they were hoping for an "evil white man".  This revelation has caused liberal heads to explode because black people within woke culture generally rank higher on the DEI totem pole than white women.  However, as everyone knows, when a black person leaves the liberal plantation these activists can become some of the most racist people on the planet.  They would rather destroy a minority than let him "go rogue".  

Lindsay Clancy supporter learns the lone holdout juror was a Black man—and suddenly says it “changes the landscape of the conversation.”

“I think a lot of us were assuming that it was a white man.”

Absolutely wild.pic.twitter.com/0vCiWsWrG0

— Real America's Voice (RAV) (@RealAmVoice) September 11, 2026

New outlets and online headhunters have been scrambling to dig up dirt on the black juror in order to gain some kind of narrative leverage.  Media sources have somehow obtained the man's name, though they can't release it yet without violating the court order.  NBC published a hatchet job article outlining the jurors criminal history.  

EXCLUSIVE: The holdout juror in the Lindsay Clancy trial had a history of domestic violence allegations, the NBC10 Boston Investigators have learned through court documents and interviews with family members. Read the full investigation here. https://t.co/qSjIiU8Og8

— NBC10 Boston (@NBC10Boston) September 11, 2026

Defense Attorney Kevin Reddington's wife is apparently leading the charge on social media to undermine the juror's credibility.  It's a bizarre decision given that the trial is already over, unless the goal is to intimidate future jurors in a future trial. 

Kevin Reddington's wife is leading the slander campaign against the black hold-out juror.

You heard that right.

The wife of Clancy's lawyer is putting a target on the back of the one brave person who stopped her husband from getting a 3X child killer off the hook.

This is… pic.twitter.com/GXVuuzwWjM

— Pro America Politics (@proamericapol) September 11, 2026

The man's previous charges include a restraining order filed in 2021 by his wife, who claimed at least one incident of physical abuse.  It should be noted, though, that all criminal charges were dismissed.  NBC also dug up a $12,000 civil dispute the juror had with a landlord.  NBC has not attempted to dredge up dirt on any other juror in the Clancy trial, only the juror who refused to accept the insanity plea.

It's only a matter of time before the juror's full identity is revealed, opening the door to a barrage of harassment from activists and journalists.    

It shouldn't need to be explained, but the man's past is completely irrelevant to his duties on the jury.  He was approved by the defense and criminal histories of all candidates are examined during jury selection.  Perhaps Reddington assumed that the jury was stacked in Lindsay Clancy's favor and adding a black man to the list was the same as adding another sure vote.  This explains why the lawyer acted so aggressively to have the juror pressured or removed - His "rogue" decision" is viewed as a betrayal.     

This effort by political movements and establishment journalists to assassinate the character of a juror from a trial that has already ended represents a dangerous subversion of America's justice system.  If future juries cannot make decisions based on evidence without being worried that they'll come under attack after the trial is over, this would mean the death of the jury based system.  

Such a precedent would devolve into absolute chaos within the legal structure, and of course, vigilante justice to fill the void that follows. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 11:05
Tyler Durden

No Secretary Bessent, We Aren't Magically Growing Our Way Out Of Debt

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
No Secretary Bessent, We Aren't Magically Growing Our Way Out Of Debt

Authored by Vincent Cook via The Mises Institute,

As the official federal debt hit the $40 trillion mark and attracted a lot of negative publicity, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to reassure CNBC's Sara Eisen in an August 20 interview that there is nothing to worry about:

Well, yes, I mean, look, Sara, there's nothing magic about the $40 trillion number. And we can grow our way out of that. So, but what we do want to signal is, I think that there's been a lot of misinformation in terms of what's going on with the deficit, what's going on with the deficit to GDP. We actually had a fiscal consolidation for the calendar year 2025. We had, we are at about 5.7 percent of GDP. And one of the things that's temporary here that's influencing the deficit has been these tariff refunds. And we won't have to do that again. . . . The other big item in the budget that we're seeing is the hit that we're taking from, to revenues for the immediate expensing of factories and of equipment and farm structures. And I think that, if people sit back and think, that's not government spending. That is actually an investment in the future and we're increasing the tax base. And that's how, that is what measures the wealth of a nation, is the ability to increase after-tax return on capital. So we're pulling back the, think of it as pulling back the slingshot here. We have a lot of potential energy that will turn into kinetic energy during this year, next year, as these factories come online.

While Republicans have long been chanting "voodoo economics" incantations (i.e., claiming that increased growth happens in spite of federal deficit surges caused by tax reductions, so tax revenues will eventually catch up to spending over the long run), Bessent's remark does represent a new wrinkle on this theme. Here Bessent focuses attention on the ratio of the official budget deficit to GDP, as if the official budget is the only relevant factor affecting the future growth of total public debt and as if a short-run increase in GDP is a strongly positive indicator of the economy's long-run ability to sustain increased taxes.

The most basic objection to Bessent's argument (and indeed to the older versions of "supply-side" voodoo as well) is that it doesn't make any fundamental difference in the physical quantity of capital goods if private savings are consumed by higher deficits instead of being consumed by higher taxes. Either way, the labor and natural resources that otherwise could have been devoted to increased net capital accumulation are instead diverted towards increased present consumption and/or increased governmental malinvestments. Giving a tax break to encourage greater investment without corresponding decreases in government spending is self-defeating, since increased deficits divert the additional savings away from private businesses towards the government and its clients and minions.

We can see through the Republican smoke and mirrors to visualize the relationship between deficits and net saving with a graph of historical data. Figure 1 shows these amounts as fractions of net national product (NNP, a measure of what was actually earned by Americans at home and abroad) over the past seventy-five years, with the green line representing net saving and the green line representing federal surpluses and deficits.

Figure 1: Net saving, federal surpluses/deficits as fractions of net national product, 1950-2025

Source: BEA and OMB via FRED®

During the first twenty-four years, net saving varied between ten percent to fifteen percent of NNP, while the federal budget was close to being balanced. However, net saving peaked in 1965, and has since declined to very nearly zero percent in the 2020s. This sixty-year decline in net saving coincides with the emergence of steadily worsening federal deficits, which started becoming particularly acute in the 1980s and early 1990s at around 5 percent of NNP (roughly comparable to the New Deal deficits of the 1930s). During Clinton's two terms things turned around and the federal budget climbed all the way back to a small surplus, coinciding with a partial recovery of net saving.

Since the Clinton era the deficit situation has severely deteriorated, punctuated by sharp spikes during the 2008 financial crisis and during the 2020 covid lockdowns. It is in this fiscal morass that net saving has almost vanished. While Bessent can truthfully boast that net saving in 2025 was a little bit better than in 2024, keeping up this rate of improvement for three more years won't even get net saving back to the level achieved under the first Trump administration in 2019.

Chronic deficits have canceled whatever successes Republicans have had otherwise in reducing tax rates on investors. Their failure since the Eisenhower administration to keep spending under control, in conjunction with the equally reckless fiscal policies of the Democrats, has had a catastrophic impact on America's ability to keep increasing its stock of capital goods out of its own private thrift. While soaring deficits didn't cause the entire decline of net saving over the past sixty years, they did account for roughly half of it.

The official debt figure as such isn't even accurate as a measure of the problem, let alone magical, as $40 trillion gravely understates total federal obligations. This official figure does not include the net present value of the unfunded liabilities of the Social Security, Medicare, and federal employee trust funds, which the trustees (including Secretary Bessent) estimate will put the federal government a further $80 trillion in the hole in the absence of any growth-killing tax increases or political career-killing benefit cuts. The total liabilities of the federal government add up to at least $120 trillion; just servicing such an almost incomprehensible burden requires extremely powerful magic indeed, since no politician even dares acknowledge that two of the trust funds are set to go broke in the early 2030s, let alone come up with a plan to balance all the trust fund budgets.

So what are we to make of Bessent's contention that everything is fine because GDP is growing faster than deficits are? The deficit/GDP ratio referenced by Bessent (figure 2) did decrease from 6.2 percent in 2024 to 5.8 percent in 2025, but such a tiny improvement is barely noticeable when viewed over a seventy-five year perspective.

Figure 2: Federal surpluses/deficits as a fraction of GDP, 1950-2025

Source: BEA via FRED®

The deficit-GDP ratio in figure 2 looks very similar to the red line of figure 1, the main difference being that GDP is somewhat larger than NNP because it includes capital depreciation expenses (which makes "gross" metrics bigger than "net" metrics), offset slightly by the overseas earnings of Americans (which makes "national" metrics smaller than "domestic" metrics). GDP has grown slightly faster than NNP over this period, but it is NNP that is the better proxy of the income tax base, since depreciation expenses are not taxable while overseas income is taxable.

Admittedly Bessent overstating growth slightly by his preference for GDP over NNP is a minor issue, but it highlights a more fundamental methodological problem in his thinking. He starts by cherry-picking a popular metric to compare to the deficit metric and then extrapolates long-term trends from a single year's changes in each metric. What he fails to do is to apply sound economic theories deduced from the incontrovertible fact of human purposefulness to the historical statistics, a priori theories which are necessary both for selecting the most relevant comparative metric and for correctly inferring what possible combinations of causal factors might account for observed changes. Moreover, extrapolating a sustained trend reversal from a single, small year-over-year improvement makes absolutely no sense; a credible time-series analysis of these data can only show a worsening budget trend.

The GDP growth illusion conjured up and widely touted by Trump, and Vance, as well as by Bessent depends heavily on wicked black magic of the monetary variety. The accelerating creation of fiat dollars out of thin air by the Federal Reserve and the creation of fractional reserve dollar deposits and other dollar-denominated substitutes out of thin air by the banking system - that is, accelerating inflation and faster inflation-caused price increases - are what temporarily boost GDP, what permanently increase trust fund obligations via statutory cost-of-living adjustments, and what fuel wasteful boom-bust cycles characterized during the bust phase by burgeoning deficits, severe declines of net saving due to intensified government interventions, and the writing off of massive quantities of malinvested capital.

This sort of monetary hocus-pocus never makes tax revenues catch up with soaring expenditures over the long run; inflation can "solve" the federal liabilities problem only by utterly destroying the purchasing power of the dollar and thereby making all dollar-denominated obligations worthless. Whatever one may think about the efficacy of the central bank's monetary wizardry and the Treasury's fiscal sorcery, none of their spell-casting, witchery's brews, or prestidigitations are equivalent to private restraint of present consumption by Americans making more labor and natural resource inputs available for growing the physical quantities of sustainably-productive factories, equipment, and farm structures in America. The green line in figure 1 demonstrates that such growth has virtually halted; over the decades Republicans and Democrats alike have put a bipartisan hex on growth.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 10:30
Tyler Durden

"Riyadh In Difficult Position": Saudis Shutter Critical East-West Pipeline After Drone Attacks

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
"Riyadh In Difficult Position": Saudis Shutter Critical East-West Pipeline After Drone Attacks

Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its 7 million-barrel-a-day East-West pipeline following multiple drone attacks, exposing a massive vulnerability in a critical export route used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz during more than six months of US-Iran conflict.

The closure puts new pressure on Saudi oil exports as the pipeline designed to bypass the Hormuz chokepoint becomes a target. The Energy Ministry described the shutdown as precautionary while emergency crews secured the pipeline and assessed its safety.

The oil pumping station on the Saudi East-West pipeline was completely destroyed during yesterday’s attack, according to satellite imagery released today.

This is incredibly important news, as the East-West pipeline can transport up to approximately 210 million barrels of crude… https://t.co/6GCaYnkkAs pic.twitter.com/YggT4Lwzwm

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) September 11, 2026

Here's the ministry's statement:

An official source at the Ministry of Energy stated that the East-West Pipeline in the Riyadh and Madinah regions was subjected to multiple attacks on the morning of Thursday, 10 September 2026. The pipeline was shut down as a precautionary measure. The attacks resulted in a number of injuries, and medical care was provided to those affected.

The source said emergency and specialised technical teams responded immediately following the attacks, taking the necessary measures to secure the pipeline and assess its safety in line with approved safety procedures and emergency response plans, in coordination with the relevant authorities. Any further developments will be announced in due course.

The shutdown deepens an already severe export squeeze on the kingdom. Saudi oil shipments fell to about 3 million barrels a day in August, the lowest level on record since early 2017.

Iran-backed Houthis seized the strategic island of Mayun in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait last week, tightening pressure on the kingdom's Red Sea export hub. With Hormuz already disrupted, ongoing threats to both maritime chokepoints are narrowing the kingdom's options for moving crude to global markets. 

"Riyadh is in a difficult position," said Rapidan Energy Group analyst Fernando Ferreira. "As the US maintains the blockade and succeeds in escorting more tankers out of the region, Iran will pivot toward increased attacks on Gulf energy facilities."

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 09:55
Tyler Durden

UK Government Reserves Two-Thirds Of Elite Jobs By Race; Leaked Doc Exposes

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
UK Government Reserves Two-Thirds Of Elite Jobs By Race; Leaked Doc Exposes

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Sixty-six per cent of the slots are ringfenced for staff who are ethnic minority, disabled, or from a lower socio-economic background. Everyone else - including the white working-class kids the same government claims to champion - can take whatever is left. They've essentially built a public-sector caste system.

The Cabinet Office's defence is the same tired formula used across the British state. The scheme, it says, complies with the "positive action" provisions of the Equality Act. In plain English: race, disability status and class background are now official sorting criteria for who gets accelerated towards the top of the machine that writes the country's laws.

Exclusive: The Civil Service is reserving two-thirds of places on a taxpayer-funded talent programme for "diverse candidates".

A leaked document reveals 66% of places are ringfenced for ethnic minority, disabled and lower socioeconomic background staff.

The Cabinet Office says...

— Steven Edginton (@StevenEdginton) September 8, 2026

Reform UK's home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf put the objection in one line: "Jobs and opportunities should be awarded on merit, not handed out according to someone's ethnicity."

"Positive action" is the legal fig leaf. Positive discrimination is illegal in Britain. Positive action is the workaround: employers may favour a candidate from an under-represented group if they are "as qualified" as the other person. In practice, the ringfence comes first. Two-thirds of the places are already spoken for before a single application is scored on competence.

The Civil Service already runs dedicated fast-tracks for favoured identities. META - the Minority Ethnic Talent Association - sits on top of the Future Leaders Scheme. DELTA does the same for disabled staff. Mentoring, mock interviews, senior sponsorship and extra visibility are reserved for those groups. The leaked 66 per cent figure is simply that architecture made explicit: most of the taxpayer-funded pipeline is not open competition. It is a reserved lane.

Official numbers make the "under-representation" story look thinner by the year. Civil Service Statistics 2026 put ethnic minority representation at a record 19.2 per cent, against 19.6 per cent of the economically active working-age population.

Declared disability among civil servants is now 18.4 per cent - above the national working-age average. The gap that remains is concentrated at the Senior Civil Service, where ethnic minority staff sit at 10.6 per cent. The official answer is not to test harder for the best people. It is to fence off two-thirds of the development scheme and call it justice.

This is not an isolated HR experiment. Britain's domestic intelligence service has already told white students, including poor ones, not to bother applying.

For the 2026/27 academic year, MI5's Summer Intelligence Internship is confined to people "from a Black, Asian, mixed heritage or ethnic minority background and from a socially or economically disadvantaged background."

The agency's own careers page states: "We're confining the applications for this internship to those within this demographic due to a current underrepresentation in our workforce." White British applicants - even those from the most deprived postcodes - cannot submit a form. A narrow "White other" box exists for Romany Gypsy, Scottish Travellers or Irish Travellers. Ordinary white Britons are out.

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp called it "flagrant racism from MI5 & GCHQ." He wrote: "White applicants for summer 2027 internships - including from disadvantaged backgrounds - can't apply. The scheme must be scrapped." And: "Applications should be merit-based and colour blind. Working class white boys are among the most disadvantaged - yet are ignored."

Security minister Dan Jarvis has defended the internships as "a lawful measure (as set out in the Equality Act 2010) used to encourage people from under-represented demographics to consider national security careers." The same statute, the same incantation. The people who will one day hold files on the rest of the country are being pre-sorted by ethnicity before they sit a single test.

The National Audit Office ran the same play. Its six-week paid public-sector accounting internship in Newcastle accepted only applicants who were female, of black heritage, or from lower socio-economic backgrounds. Middle-class white men were barred. Yusuf called that "blatant discrimination."

The same pattern reached frontline policing in April 2025. West Yorkshire Police, one of the largest forces in the country, told white British candidates to wait while "under-represented groups" were waved through the door.

The force's recruitment page stated: "We are currently accepting applications for the two police constable entry programmes (uniform and detective) from people from our under-represented groups... If you are not from one of these groups, please keep checking this page for future recruitment opportunities."

A whistleblower report to senior officers, seen by The Telegraph, said the effect was blunt: "the pipeline for anyone white British is strangled, whilst anyone not white British is ushered through." Over a 15-month stretch, ethnic minority candidates were given 446 days to apply. White British applicants were given 99. In one round they had 48 hours.

West Yorkshire denied it was a ban. It said early applications from minorities were "positive action" and that those files were held until the scheme opened to everyone. The force still employs a small army of DEI officers. Chief Constable John Robins has argued that the law itself should be changed to permit open positive discrimination.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called the episode "social engineering." She said she believes in "meritocracy, not race-based quotas," and warned that such policies risk "the perpetuation of harmful stereotypes that ethnic minorities cannot succeed unless a well-meaning Leftie is holding the door open." Police, she added, exist "to prevent crime and catch criminals, not social engineering."

Once the recruitment gate is racialised, the training follows. Thames Valley Police put officers through "equity training" covering "white privilege," "micro-aggressions" and the difference between being "non-racist versus anti-racist."

The course landed a month after an employment tribunal found the same force had positively discriminated against white officers by handing an unadvertised inspector post to an Asian sergeant.

An independent review ordered by the police and crime commissioner noted that white privilege "can often be seen as demonising white people and therefore building barriers to the learning." The training went ahead anyway.

Police Scotland's anti-racism package lists the same canon: white privilege, white fragility, micro-aggressions, allyship. The National Police Chiefs' Council Race Action Plan treats "unconscious bias" as a fact about everyone and proceeds from the premise that many people still believe policing is institutionally racist.

Officers are taught to see their own skin as a problem before they are taught to see a suspect. That is not operational training. It is political catechism, paid for by the public those officers are supposed to protect.

The legal profession also has its own reserved lane. The Bar Council partnered with the 10,000 Interns Foundation on a paid six-week scheme that excluded white applicants. Sophie Corcoran, a commentator who had been exploring a legal career, applied and was shut out.

She said she was "shocked to discover that the scheme is restricted to applicants of a particular racial background." She has since issued proceedings. "This case is not simply about my own experience," she said. "I am pursuing it because I believe that no person in Britain should be denied opportunities because of the colour of their skin. I believe strongly that equality before the law must apply to everyone."

The Bar Council's answer is, again, the Equality Act. It has called the scheme "lawful positive action under sections 158 and 159 of the Equality Act based on evidence of under-representation in relation to access to the profession," filed a defence, and said it will "vigorously contest" the claim. The 2026 intake went ahead.

Rupert Lowe, then an independent MP, had already described the programme as "anti-white racism."

He further urged, "What message does this send to a generation of talented, hard-working young people who happen to be white - that their ambitions are less worthy? That they must be excluded to balance some imagined historical scale?"

The body that speaks for barristers is defending a racial filter on entry to the profession that exists to interpret the law equally.

The same logic has already eaten the Treasury. In 2020 the department that runs the public finances quietly scrapped the numerical reasoning test on its policy adviser graduate scheme.

Internal papers obtained by The Spectator explained why. "The Numerical Reasoning Test (NRT) was removed due to evidence of the test having adverse impact on candidate diversity."

Board minutes were more direct: "We want more diverse ethnicity at assessment centre." Two tests were treated as "an additional 'hurdle'" and "another opportunity for candidates to be sifted out of the process."

The verbal reasoning test later went the same way. In its place came a "Civil Service Strengths" questionnaire, including items such as "I find it frustrating when others don't understand my ideas." Dr Zubir Ahmed's verdict on the numeracy decision was short: "I'm sorry, but this is insane and helps no one."

A state that deletes the maths test from the Treasury application so that the ethnicity numbers look better is a state that has stopped caring whether the people who will spend your money can count.

Every one of these schemes points back to the same statute. The Equality Act 2010, passed by Labour and left standing by the Conservatives, created the "positive action" gateway.

Ministers, permanent secretaries and police chiefs now treat that gateway as a mandate. The Civil Service Code itself tells officials they must support "equality and diversity." Once that is written into the operating system, every talent board, internship and constable intake becomes an exercise in demographic engineering.

Labour has pushed the same logic from the other direction. In 2025 Pat McFadden announced that the main Civil Service undergraduate internship would be restricted to students from "lower socio-economic backgrounds," judged by what their parents did when they were 14.

"We need to get more working class young people into the civil service so it harnesses the broadest range of talent and truly reflects the country," he said. Class ringfences and race ringfences now sit side by side. The one group that is never the intended beneficiary is the ordinary white applicant who is neither poor enough nor minority enough to clear the new hurdles.

Across the Atlantic, the second Trump administration has spent two years ripping DEI out of the federal government and the universities. Whitehall has spent those same years thickening the paperwork. America First meant colour-blind hiring. Britain First, in the hands of the Blob, has meant the opposite.

Edginton's leak does not reveal a rogue HR officer. It reveals the settled doctrine of the British governing class. A taxpayer-funded talent programme with 66 per cent of places reserved is not "inclusion." It is a quota with better branding.

MI5 internships that refuse white applications, police portals that tell white Britons to check back later, classrooms that instruct officers in their privilege, and a Bar scheme that locks white graduates out of paid chambers experience are not separate scandals. They are one policy, applied wherever the state still controls the gate.

A country that sorts its future mandarins, spies, constables and barristers by ancestry should stop calling itself a meritocracy. It should at least have the honesty to admit what the leaked paper already says: two-thirds of the ladder is reserved, and the people who built the state are no longer first in line to run it.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 09:20
Tyler Durden

President Xi Urges BRICS To Stand On "Right Side Of History", Calls For Gulf Peace

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
President Xi Urges BRICS To Stand On "Right Side Of History", Calls For Gulf Peace

At the 18th BRICS Summit earlier today, held at the Bharat Mandapam convention center in New Delhi, India, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged member nations to help end the war in the Middle East, positioning the bloc as a force for global stability.

Speaking Saturday at the BRICS summit, Xi said members should stand on the "right side of history" and take a leading role in promoting peace, according to China's state-run Xinhua news agency.

President Xi Jinping attended Session I of the 18th BRICS Summit and delivered an important statement.

President Xi stressed that BRICS must stand firmly on the right side of history and strive to be a pioneer of our times.

1️⃣ BRICS should be a pioneer in advancing… pic.twitter.com/4ZGd1zKuqi

— Mao Ning 毛宁 (@SpoxCHN_MaoNing) September 12, 2026

Xi said the conflict in the Gulf region undermined the international community's shared interests and pledged Beijing's cooperation in ending hostilities. Those shared interests include importing cheap Iranian crude and other products to Asia. 

"BRICS countries should firmly stand on the right side of history," Xi said.

Xi, Putin and Modi are meeting in at the BRICS summit in India today pic.twitter.com/j4etgsYqAd

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 12, 2026

Xi's comments show that Beijing is turning BRICS's economic weight into geopolitical influence and positioning the bloc as a diplomatic power broker. However, the remarks stopped just short of a concrete ceasefire plan.

The Trump administration, including the president himself, has framed BRICS as "anti-American" and threatened steep tariffs over efforts to challenge the dollar.

Trump has made several comments about BRICS, including threatening tariffs against member nations if the bloc creates a rival currency. He has also threatened additional tariffs on countries aligning with BRICS' "Anti-American policies."

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 08:45
Tyler Durden

Tylenol Use In Pregnancy May Reduce Daughters' Fertility, Study Finds

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
Tylenol Use In Pregnancy May Reduce Daughters' Fertility, Study Finds

Authored by Rachel Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Female reproductive organ development could be impacted by a mother taking Tylenol - also known as acetaminophen or paracetamol - during pregnancy, according to researchers in Denmark.

Tylenol and acetaminophen tablets in a CVS store, in this file photo. Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images

On average, infant girls exposed to the pain relief drug in the womb had smaller ovaries; fewer ovarian follicles, which are the structures that contain immature eggs; smaller wombs; and lower levels of reproductive hormones, according to the findings of the study published Wednesday in Human Reproduction Open.

Long-term follow-up will be required to determine whether the differences observed in infants have implications for fertility later in life and a woman's age at menopause, study leader Margit Bistrup Fischer of Rigshospitalet in Copenhagen said in a statement accompanying the study.

Animal studies have previously suggested that fetal exposure to Tylenol, the most commonly used drug in pregnancy, might affect ovarian egg reserve and later reproductive function, but this is the first time that research has reported similar findings in humans.

Women 'Should Not Be Alarmed'

Women who have used Tylenol, the brand name for the generic drug acetaminophen, widely known as paracetamol outside of North America, during pregnancy should not be alarmed, Fischer said.

"Animal studies have demonstrated that impaired formation of ovarian follicles can lead to reduced fertility and earlier reproductive aging. Whether the differences observed in our study have implications for fertility and age at menopause in humans remains unknown and will require long-term follow-up of the girls in our cohort.

"Women who have used paracetamol during pregnancy should not be alarmed by our findings. Our study examined associations at the population level and cannot predict outcomes for any individual woman or child," she said.

The researchers studied 302 3-month-old girls whose mothers' use of Tylenol had been tracked during pregnancy. Of these babies, 92 were first exposed to the drug in the womb before 17 weeks of pregnancy, 67 were exposed after 17 weeks, and 143 were born to mothers who had not used the drug while pregnant.

The women all took relatively low amounts, with none exceeding the recommended daily maximum dose of 4,000 milligrams. Most took it to help with headaches or musculoskeletal pain.

A girl's ovarian reserves are established while she is a developing baby in the womb, although other factors may determine the age she goes through puberty and menopause.

The 3-month-old girls in the study who were exposed to Tylenol in utero had ovaries that were 40 percent smaller, wombs that were on average 13 percent smaller, and 23 percent fewer ovarian follicles, the researchers found.

Babies exposed early in pregnancy - before 17 weeks - also had lower levels of Anti-Müllerian hormone, an indicator of the number and quality of eggs in the ovaries.

Smaller Wombs and Ovaries

The researchers also followed a separate group of 1,210 girls from infancy to adolescence whose mothers had reported Tylenol use during pregnancy. Fetal exposure in this group was associated with smaller uteruses at puberty and smaller ovaries during adolescence.

The study cannot predict outcomes for any individual female, Fischer said, explaining that many women who used Tylenol during pregnancy had daughters whose ovarian measurements were similar to those of daughters born to women who did not use the drug.

Current guidelines from health authorities recommend Tylenol as safe for treating pain and fever during pregnancy. Untreated high fever or severe pain can themselves pose risks to both mother and baby, Fischer said.

Dr. Christian De Geyter, a reproductive medicine specialist at the University Hospital of Basel, Switzerland, said in an accompanying commentary that the findings of the study fit well with data from animal research, and that their importance "cannot be stressed enough."

Follow-up of girls in the study should extend into menopause, he said, adding that recommendations on the drug's use during pregnancy should be reconsidered.

Franziska Denk, professor of neuroscience at King's College London, said the study was "good quality research," although he thought the sample size was too small for the 13 different variables being examined.

"Right now, I think it is too early to recommend a change in behavior - as correctly indicated by the authors in the press release," he said.

'Several Notable Weaknesses'

Stephen Burgess, professor of biostatistics at the University of Cambridge, said the study had "several notable weaknesses."

"Mothers who took paracetamol during pregnancy are likely to differ substantially from those that did not - this is known as confounding. Confounding makes it difficult to know whether differences between outcomes are attributable to paracetamol itself or to other characteristics of the mothers or their pregnancies," he said.

He said that it could not be determined that the drug was the cause of the differences found by the researchers.

"It may be that these findings are driven by infection or fever - women take paracetamol due to mild sickness, and this sickness is the cause of differences in early-life ovarian volume. It may be that impaired fetal development and its causes are what lead to increased paracetamol usage, not that increased paracetamol usage leads to impaired fetal development."

Burgess added that even if there were negative consequences of taking paracetamol during pregnancy, there were "likely future negative consequences attributable to taking away one of the only remaining available and widely tolerated medications from pregnant women."

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces that acetaminophen, the active ingredient in Tylenol, may be associated with autism, at the White House on Sept. 22, 2025. With Kennedy are President Donald Trump and acting Assistant Secretary for Health Dr. Dorothy Fink. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images US Officials Linked Drug to Autism

President Donald Trump's administration has said that evidence suggests the use of Tylenol during pregnancy could be linked to autism, although the claim was dismissed by major health organizations.

Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. and Trump spoke about the use of Tylenol during pregnancy in September 2025, with the government subsequently advocating caution over prenatal exposure. The department's current fact sheet says exposure to the drug during pregnancy is an unresolved area of concern, while acknowledging that causality has not been established.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) continues to monitor and evaluate the drug's use in pregnancy, but states that it has not found clear evidence that Tylenol's use at recommended safe levels causes adverse pregnancy, birth, neurobehavioral, or developmental outcomes.

The FDA and HHS did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the Danish study.

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that the clinical significance of the study's findings remain "uncertain or unknown," and that current guidelines for women should not change because of it.

"The oldest participants evaluated were adolescents, and the study cannot determine whether the observed differences are associated with future reproductive outcomes such as fertility, ovulatory function, reproductive lifespan, or other measures of reproductive health," it said, adding that the observational study had various limitations.

"These findings should be viewed as a potential area for further investigation and do not indicate that current clinical recommendations should change. Consistent with ACOG's existing guidance, acetaminophen remains one of the only safe medications that can be used during pregnancy when indicated, and patients should consult their obstetric care professional before making any changes to medication use."

Ongoing Lawsuit

The Danish findings come as Tylenol manufacturers face an ongoing lawsuit in the United States over alleged risks associated with prenatal exposure.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued Kenvue, which now owns the Tylenol brand after Johnson & Johnson spun off its consumer health business into a new company in 2023. The suit alleged that the company engaged in deceptive advertising by failing to disclose evidence concerning a possible link between prenatal Tylenol exposure and autism.

While a judge dismissed most of the claims, one consumer-protection claim against Kenvue Brands LLC has been allowed to proceed, with the company's attempt to have it dismissed rejected in February.

In an emailed statement to Reuters, Kenvue advised pregnant or breastfeeding women to check with a health professional before using acetaminophen, which the company says is the most studied and safest pain reliever during pregnancy.

It noted that the study has methodology limitations and does not support a causal relationship between the drug and postnatal reproductive development.

Kenvue shares fell more than 3 percent Wednesday following the study's publication.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 08:10
Tyler Durden

Report Sounds Alarm Over Return Of Iranian Mass Ballistic Missile Production

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
Report Sounds Alarm Over Return Of Iranian Mass Ballistic Missile Production

Among an array of shifting official goals of the Iran war offered by the US administration, there's one which has remained consistent: President Trump and White House officials have time and again proclaimed that Iran's ballistic missile arsenal is mostly obliterated.

Yet, this very week - as well as the past several weeks - Iran has been intermittently responding to US provocations by unleashing large ballistic missile salvos on some of the Gulf states, but especially Jordan. Here's the NY Times commenting on the latest attack on US bases in Jordan just yesterday:

The Jordanian military said that it had intercepted 18 of the 20 missiles and that two had fallen in unpopulated areas. But the two U.S. officials acknowledged that the base in Azraq, Jordan, was hit.

How then are the Iranians sustaining such large repeat strike waves after US-Israeli attacks supposedly destroyed much of their missile program?

The Arab Weekly/via state media

For a very brief trip down memory lane spanning various phases of the six-month long conflict...

*  *  *

March 9, 2026. President Trump very early in the Operation Epic Fury campaign told Fox News:

"We have sunk all Iranian ships and destroyed most of its missile launch platforms, with only 20% remaining."  

April 1, 2026. Roughly a month into the conflict, Trump delivered a formal address outlining the scope of the destruction, claiming the following:

"That means eliminating Iran’s navy, which is now absolutely destroyed, hurting their air force and their missile program at levels never seen before, and annihilating their defense industrial base. We’ve done all of it; their navy is gone. Their air force is gone. Their missiles are just about used up or beaten."  

June 5, 2026. Trump in NBC News Meet the Press interview, actually reiterated what seemed like very specific figures:

"Most of the missile manufacturing areas have been knocked out... I would say, percentage-wise, maybe 21, 22 per cent of their missiles. It's a lot of missiles, but it's not what it was when we first attacked."

*  *  *

Now, on Thursday, enter The Wall Street Journal with a new report saying the Islamic Republic has again ramped-up its damaged defense sector, producing ballistic missiles once again:

Iran has resumed its production of ballistic missiles using stockpiled components and working in underground facilities, officials from the U.S. and Middle East familiar with the matter said, eroding what the U.S. and Israel have touted as a major achievement of the war. 

Despite heavy attacks on its missile sites and industrial facilities during the initial phase of the war, Iran has been busy assembling liquid-propellant missiles, which have to be fueled just before launch, as well as solid-propellant missiles, which can be stored ready to fire, some of the officials said.

Iranian officials have all along claimed that they kept up weapons production even under the height of US bombing raids.

Earlier this week, Iranian Brigadier General Alireza Elhami, who serves as the commander of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Joint Air Defense Headquarters, assessed the following as cited in PressTV: "The equipment produced [inside Iran] passed a successful test during that conflict, and now they are being rapidly mass-produced to be deployed across the entire expanse of the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Israel FINALLY Releases 12-Day War Footage After Censorship LIFTED

It shows TWO Iranian Missiles making DIRECT HITS on the Haifa Oil Refinery

This was BEFORE the alleged Interceptor shortage too pic.twitter.com/iSyQlKJjwT

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) September 8, 2026

The new WSJ report is consistent with the Iranian military official's words: "Intelligence points to activity at several underground sites, including the Khojir missile facility in southeastern Iran, those officials said. Iran is also attempting to build new underground assembly points to avoid getting struck again, they said."

"So far, Iran is mainly assembling the new missiles from existing components in more limited quantities than before the war, the U.S. and regional officials said," the report continues. "The U.S. and Israel damaged a number of industrial facilities needed to produce missile components and missiles themselves, and the naval blockade has complicated imports of parts and ingredients for solid fuel."

Iran sees itself in a situation of an existential fight for its survival as a people and a nation, so is pulling out all the stops and seeking to demonstrate resiliency, charging full steam ahead. 'Victory' for Tehran is survival, and it seems to only now be sinking in for Washington just how hard it will be to remove the country's rulers and institutions.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 07:35
Tyler Durden

Countries Have No Duty To Admit 13 Children From 3 Marriages In Yemen, Rules Top Human Rights Court

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
Countries Have No Duty To Admit 13 Children From 3 Marriages In Yemen, Rules Top Human Rights Court

Via Remix News,

A Yemeni asylum seeker living in the Netherlands cannot rely on family reunification rules to bring over children from two additional marriages that Dutch law does not recognize, ruled the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). The ECHR dismissed the migrant's complaint on Tuesday, holding that Council of Europe states are not required to treat polygamous family arrangements as they would a monogamous household.

The man, 56, has three wives and 13 children from those unions. After arriving in the Netherlands in 2018 and receiving asylum, he was allowed to bring one wife and their eight children.

Dutch authorities refused entry to the five children born of his other two marriages, citing that "polygamy is prohibited in the Netherlands."

He lost his challenges in the Dutch courts and then turned to Strasbourg, according to French newspaper Le Figaro. He argued the case was not about importing polygamy, because he was not seeking to bring the other two wives, only the remaining children. The court rejected the argument that the refusal violated his right to respect for family life.

If a European state "establishes an immigration policy that takes family ties into account," it "cannot be obliged to recognize polygamous marriages that conflict with its own legal system," the judges in Strasbourg ruled.

🇩🇪A tale of two Germanys🇩🇪

🔴The first Germany represents illiterate Syrian migrant Ahmad A. and his 2 wives and 6 children. The entire family received free housing and welfare thanks to German taxpayers.

"I would to thank Mommy Merkel very, very, very much," he told Spiegel… pic.twitter.com/dywvPx6m9K

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) April 28, 2026

The court also noted that he could have divorced the two other wives, as Dutch authorities had proposed, but declined to do so.

Notably, the second wife is already in the Netherlands with her children after she received asylum in June 2025. However, the fact that she entered the Netherlands did not change the ruling, the ECHR stated.

"The fact that polygamy is prohibited in all member states of the Council of Europe shows that there is a strong European consensus on this issue," the judges noted. Under those circumstances, "Member States have considerable discretion as to whether or not to grant fathers and children born of polygamy the right to family reunification."

🇫🇷🚨In France, an Ivorian polygamist has been sentenced to 30 years in prison for torture, rape, and for imposing a hard-line Islamic regime on his 4 wives and 29 children.

The 45-year-old Ivorian migrant, held in pretrial detention since 2022, was said to have stripped the home… pic.twitter.com/1NVsbWmJcl

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) December 4, 2025

The ECHR, based in Strasbourg, oversees compliance with the European Convention on Human Rights by the member states of the Council of Europe.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/12/2026 - 07:00
Tyler Durden

9/11, Anwar Al-Awlaki, And Our Unanswered Questions

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
9/11, Anwar Al-Awlaki, And Our Unanswered Questions

Authored by Patrick Pillow via The Libertarian Institute,

In 1990, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) provided "full funding" for one Anwar Nasser Abdulla al-Awlaki for studies in civil engineering at Colorado State University.

There was only one problem: the USAID document listed his birthplace as Sana'a, Yemen. Awlaki was actually born in Las Cruces, New Mexico, an inaccuracy which federal security agent Ray Fournier and The New York Times describe as being done in an attempt to qualify for scholarship money.

Awlaki returned to the United States on October 23, 2000, just two weeks after the bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen. This sequencing is worth mentioning, but at this time the FBI did not establish any connection between Awlaki and the attack.

Just months before September 11, Awlaki moved to Virginia and became an imam at the Dar Al-Hijrah Mosque in Falls Church. After the events of 9/11, on September 15, he was questioned by authorities and claimed he flew into Washington DC's National Airport at 9 AM - less than an hour before the Pentagon was hit.

Significantly during interrogations, Awlaki would not show his passport and left the interview at one point to take an "urgent" phone call. When asked about his feelings about jihad, he would go on to state "I would like not to comment on that."

Years later, in 2003, Awlaki himself would initiate a conversation with the FBI, stating he was "astonished by some of the talk circulating in the media." This included allegations of him serving as a "spiritual advisor" to the hijackers, to which Awlaki stated he would like to "clarify any misunderstandings."

As one FBI agent asked upon receiving correspondence from Awlaki, "Holy crap - isn't this your guy?"

While they discussed a potential meeting in London, the meet up never happened as Awlaki stopped replying. Still, the story didn't end there.

In 2004, the 9/11 Commission Report was released in which Awlaki's relationship with the hijackers was detailed. In the report, it discusses hijackers Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Mihdar who were reported to have "developed a close relationship" with Awlaki.

Years later, on July 16, 2010, Awlaki was revealed by the U.S. Treasury as a key leader for al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and described as being increasingly dangerous with an "operational role" in the group.

This included assistance to Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, known by some as the "underpants bomber," who attempted to detonate a device in mid-air during a flight on Christmas 2009. Awlaki also exchanged messages with Nidal Hasan before he killed thirteen people at Fort Hood in 2009. In 2010, Faisal Shahzad - who attempted to use a car bomb in Times Square - stated he was a "fan and follower" of Awlaki.

Awlaki was killed a year later in Yemen by a drone strike. Weeks later, his 16-year old son was also killed by a drone strike which raised multiple legal and ethical questions, as he was a U.S. citizen and killed in a country the United States was not formally at war with. His daughter was also killed in a raid over five years later.

As families of 9/11 victims sued the Saudi Arabian government, more potential reveals were provided in 2015. This included a witness during a civil lawsuit who stated they saw Hazmi and Mihdhar at a second-floor guest room at Awlaki's San Diego mosque and also that he had "closed-door meetings in San Diego with al-Mihdhar, al-Hazmi, and another individual, whom al-Bayoumi had asked to help the hijackers."

An April 4, 2016, FBI "Encore" Investigation Update, Review and Analysis discussed how Awlaki had phone contact with Ziyad Khaleel - an alleged equipment procurer for Osama Bin-Laden. It was this connection that led the FBI to open an investigation into Awlaki in the first place in 1999.

A part of Operation Encore released in 2021, the Joe Biden administration revealed that Saudi diplomat Fahad al-Thumairy had directed an associate to look after "two very significant people," who were later identified as Hazmi and Mihdhar.

Later reveals also show Omar al-Bayoumi - who supported both Hazmi and Mihdhar - worked as an agent of Saudi intelligence. Awlaki was later revealed to have phone calls with Bayoumi just days after Bayoumi was setting up bank accounts for the hijackers in San Diego. Videos released in 2022 show Awlaki warmly greeting Bayoumi before the events of September 11.

With the U.S. government having years of warnings, connections, and unanswered questions, Awlaki's story has continued to raise questions about intelligence failures, foreign alliances, and the consequences of intervention. As we approach the 25th anniversary of 9/11, the question Awlaki leaves behind is why so many warning signs were missed, and why some answers remain hidden.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 23:25
Tyler Durden

Lefty Seattle-Area Corporate Giants Begin Revolt Against Progressive City Hall

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
Lefty Seattle-Area Corporate Giants Begin Revolt Against Progressive City Hall

Seattle-area corporate giants, including Microsoft, Starbucks, Costco, and Alaska Airlines, are pressuring City Hall for a new public safety plan amid concerns about violent crime and ongoing disorder after years of failed progressive experiments have transformed parts of the metro area into a hellhole. 

🚨THIS IS INSANE!!!!

A community is now BEGGING for help after a tiny homeless encampment in Seattle EXPLODED into a SEVERAL ACRE camp.

In just over a year, a small cluster of tents became a GIGANTIC tent city.

The people who live there, families, homeowners, taxpayers, have… pic.twitter.com/aPm2WVLNmS

— Matt Van Swol (@mattvanswol) September 7, 2026

The coalition includes Microsoft President Brad Smith, Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol, Costco CEO Ron Vachris and executives from Nordstrom, Alaska Air Group and other major employers, according to local outlet Komo News. Their letter, sent to City Hall on Thursday, brings coordinated pressure from the business community to change how City Hall governs. 

2024 donations (employees + PACS):

Starbucks: 92% went to Democrats
Microsoft: 84% went to Democrats
Costco: 80% went to Democrats

Ya'll literally voted for it https://t.co/V3XPDnOcdC

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 11, 2026

"The clearest message" from an August poll of Seattle voters, the coalition wrote, is that residents expect the city "to act with urgency, fund the actions needed to improve public safety, and provide a clear plan for measuring progress." 

DO YOU TIME TRAVEL? Literal madness on the streets of Seattle Monday afternoon. A woman was totally naked on the sidewalk across the street from Seattle City Hall. This is the best I could do with the blurs. 🙃
I asked if she needed help. Instead, she wanted my muffins. Then she… pic.twitter.com/EhfsepupF9

— Jonathan Choe (@choeshow) September 5, 2023

The coalition wants cameras in Pioneer Square, the Stadium District and other areas hosting large events. It also seeks more foot and bicycle patrols, adherence to a seven-minute response standard for priority 911 calls, and an end to open-air drug markets. 

"We need action," former Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire, now the CEO of Challenge Seattle, said. "We've got a crisis on our hands right now, and we need action on public safety."

Breaking — Following the inauguration of Seattle’s newly-elected Social Mayor Katie Wilson, Seattle police has been ordered to stop making arrests for open-air drug use.

This is the current scene in Seattle, close to Lumen Field, where the World Cup is set to take place.… pic.twitter.com/s5FwdDpzXD

— Katie Daviscourt 📸 (@KatieDaviscourt) January 7, 2026

Perhaps the progressive experiment of defunding police and open-air drug markets has run its course, and shame on the corporations that fueled this era of left-wing stupidity. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 23:00
Tyler Durden

PLA Purge May Be Driving China To Rely More On Military Pressure Against Taiwan: Analysts

Zero Rss
2 weeks 3 days ago
PLA Purge May Be Driving China To Rely More On Military Pressure Against Taiwan: Analysts

Authored by Michael Zhuang via The Epoch Times,

China's purge of senior military leaders may be pushing Beijing to rely more heavily on military intimidation and gray-zone operations against Taiwan, even as the upheaval leaves the Chinese military with a weakened command structure, according to two Chinese academics and an insider familiar with the Chinese military.

Chinese ships patrol as the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducts drills on Pingtan island—the closest point to Taiwan—in eastern Fujian Province, China, on Dec. 30, 2025. Adek Berry/AFP via Getty Images

The insider and academics spoke to The Epoch Times on condition of anonymity out of fear of reprisal.

The developments are raising concerns that Beijing's increasingly aggressive operations around Taiwan could become more difficult to control as analysts say political loyalty takes precedence over military expertise within the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

Taiwan's Defense Ministry has reported near-daily Chinese military activity around the island, describing the operations as increasingly aggressive and unpredictable, according to Taiwan's national news agency CNA. Chinese military planners are studying drone swarms, long-range strikes, ammunition consumption, maritime blockades and coordination with other countries, while exploring methods that could potentially isolate Taiwan, cut off outside supplies, and weaken its defenses during the early stages of a conflict.

At the same time, the PLA is undergoing an unusually extensive leadership purge. The seven-member Central Military Commission (CMC), which formally oversees China's armed forces, is down to just two members.

A Chinese military academic told The Epoch Times that the continuing purge suggests Xi remains deeply concerned about the loyalty of senior military commanders.

"The CMC has had so many people fall. There are already very few military members of the Central Committee," he said. "The possibility of war is not very high, but the harassment [against Taiwan] will not stop."

Military Pressure Continues

The academic said the purge has created serious gaps in the military command structure at a time when Beijing continues to use military pressure against Taiwan.

He said former CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia had been authorized to oversee simulated training for operations against Taiwan and that it would be difficult to find a replacement with comparable experience.

"At present, the pressure on Taiwan is concentrated on military intimidation," the academic said. "If they give up intimidation, they simply cannot come up with a better method."

The leadership turmoil has unfolded alongside a series of high-level purges. In October last year, nine senior military officers, including CMC Vice Chairman He Weidong, were expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the military.

In January, the Chinese regime announced investigations into Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, chief of the CMC's Joint Staff Department.

The academic said the military could be experiencing an unusually broad leadership vacuum ahead of the CCP's 21st National Congress next year.

The leadership upheaval does not necessarily mean that Beijing is preparing to launch an invasion of Taiwan. Instead, military pressure could continue precisely because it is one of the few tools available to a command structure weakened by political purges, according to the academic.

Chinese military activity around Taiwan has increasingly extended beyond conventional military exercises. Beijing has also been combining military drills, combat-readiness patrols and China Coast Guard operations, creating pressure that remains between ordinary peacetime activity and open warfare.

Taiwan's National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen told reporters in July that the months of July through September are typically a period of heightened Chinese military exercises. Taiwan had detected increased activity by the Chinese navy and other maritime forces, including four Chinese naval formations operating in the western Pacific at the time.

A Chinese military academic and researcher told The Epoch Times that Beijing was increasingly integrating military exercises with combat-readiness patrols and coast guard enforcement.

The approach allows China to maintain sustained pressure on Taiwan without crossing the threshold into open conflict, the researcher said.

He cautioned, however, that the pattern should not necessarily be interpreted as preparation for an imminent attack.

"If [the CCP] wants to launch military action against Taiwan, [it] needs to first carry out war mobilization, deploy logistical support, and even more importantly, have powerful offensive weapons and a strong and effective command system," he said.

Potential Blockade

Taiwan's Defense Ministry has assessed that China does not yet possess all the capabilities required for a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan. But Beijing has other options, including maritime isolation, a joint blockade, missile strikes, cyberattacks, and information warfare.

A blockade or maritime isolation campaign could require fewer forces than a full-scale invasion and could be conducted under the cover of military exercises or law-enforcement operations, according to researchers who spoke to The Epoch Times.

That creates a dilemma for Taiwan. If Taipei does not respond, Beijing could gradually expand its control over surrounding waters. If Taiwan responds militarily, Beijing could portray Taipei as the party responsible for escalating tensions.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said on Sept. 2 that Taiwan's defense budget for next year would exceed NT$1 trillion ($32 billion) for the first time, according to CNA. The government plans to invest in unmanned systems, AI, and Taiwan's domestic defense industry.

The Chinese military researcher said the continued expansion of Chinese military and maritime operations around Taiwan is reducing the island's warning time.

The greater concern, he said, is not a deliberate decision by Beijing to start a war, but the possibility that an incident could escalate when military judgment is compromised by political considerations.

For Taiwan, he said, that makes continued vigilance essential.

Shi Youliang contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 22:35
Tyler Durden

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