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Houthis Seize Yemeni Port Of Mocha, Gaining Greater Leverage Over Bab Al Mandab Strait

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militants (Ansar Allah) have scored a major victory against Saudi-backed government forces, after the war was fiercely reinvigorated this month, having seized a historic Red Sea port on Thursday which effectively givens the Houthis even greater leverage over the Bab Al Mandab Strait.

The port of Mocha - also spelled Mokha or Al Makha - once stood at the center of the global coffee trade and is a common household name internationally, but now is also the place from where Iranian proxies could further squeeze global energy markets.

According to the latest on the fluid battle lines via Reuters, "The group [Ansar Allah] has launched attacks on the strategic Red Sea islands of Hanish, pushing government forces and their allies south to Dhubab, which sits directly on the strait across from the island of Perim, the Yemeni sources told Reuters on Thursday." And more: "Control of Dhubab and the island is key to gaining hold of the strait, they said."

Earlier in Washington's Operation Epic Fury, the Houthis essentially joined what emerged as a regional conflict in support of Tehran, also announcing a 'siege for siege' on all Saudi exports and shipping. The group had already long opened a war on Israeli and any Tel Aviv-linked ships.

The renewed fight with Saudi Arabia, which has seen Saudi jets bomb 'rebel' locations across Yemen (a return to the much bigger but failed campaign of the last decade which raged since 2015), was the result of recent Houthi ballistic missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, which has caused major operational stoppages.

The Houthis have also at times taken aim at Saudi airports, and multiple cities in the kingdom. Earlier this summer the Saudi air force tried to prevent an Iranian passenger plane from flying to and from Houthi controlled Yemen, an event which also served as a catalyst to the current fighting.

It seems the Houthis are seeking to control the whole western coastline, which would greatly expand their reach in terms of targeting international shipping. Al Jazeera provides the following analysis of the significance of the group's recent gains:

The Ansar Allah Houthis having control of the port of Mocha means they also control the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This gives the Houthis the eyes, the ears and the pressure to monitor international trade. Bab al-Mandeb is responsible for 10-12 percent of global trade.

Secondly, this also gives them the ability to block any Saudi military reinforcements to the internationally recognized Yemeni government that come through the southern port of Hodeidah.

Thirdly, this also means they will be able to cut off the three main supply lines to government forces stationed in the south of the country and in the central provinces of al-Bayda and al-Dhale.

Fresh unconfirmed reports Thursday say that the Houthis have now actually reached the Red Sea islands of Hanish. If true this would be a further strategic advantage for taking more coastline.

Yemen: The Houthis captured the Red Sea port of Mocha early Thursday after government forces pulled out. Control of the coast lets them threaten Bab el-Mandeb shipping and raises the threat to Saudi Arabia. pic.twitter.com/oDxQdseJbY

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) September 10, 2026

The forces of the internationally recognized Aden-based government have at this point reportedly abandoned their military positions west of Taiz and south of Mocha.

Saudi allies, especially Pakistan, have been warning of some kind of intervention on Riyadh's behalf, based on the Mecca Defense Pact. The pact between Riyadh, Islamabad, and Ankara has been likened to NATO Article 5, where an attack on one is an 'attack on all'. These countries' own officials have in many cases advanced this interpretation. However, so far there's been no such action in response to the Houthis, deemed by many to be a 'non-state actor'.

*  *  *

Interesting on the ground coverage from just hours before Mocha's capture. Can the Houthis now hold it?

Exclusive access to Island that may soon fall to Iran's powerful proxy the Houthis - overnight they appear closer to control of vital Yemen Island that could drive price of oil even higher.. pic.twitter.com/63ShDPSZmD

— Nic Robertson (@NicRobertsonCNN) September 10, 2026 Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 10:45

Betting Against The House?

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

Brent futures broke through $100 per barrel after a series of attacks in the Middle East raise concerns that the conflict could intensify again. Iran said that it is ready to escalate its counterstrikes if the US continues to attack its territory and infrastructure. Parliament speaker Ghalibaf warned that Iran’s next targets are US oil and gas company assets in the region. The Houthis already struck energy facilities in Saudi Arabia in a direct response to the US attacking several Iranian oil tankers.

Adding to the energy price pressures, the European gas benchmark briefly surpassed €80/MWh. Ukrainian drones forced closures at Russian ports. Moreover, Russia’s TASS news agency reported a fire at the Yamal energy site. TTF futures receded to €79 on reports that the LNG terminal was not damaged in the strikes.

Nonetheless, the fact that Ukraine is now targeting gas facilities deep inside Russia’s territory creates substantial risks for the European energy outlook. The Yamal facility is a major LNG production and liquification plant, and a key supplier to Europe. It shipped almost 10 million tons of LNG to the EU in the first half of the year.

These renewed energy price pressures add to the inflation concerns that have been weighing down global fixed income. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.83% and the 30-year bond touched 5.30%, testing Treasury Secretary Bessent’s pain threshold ahead of a bond auction today. When the 30-year yield surpassed 5.30% in August, Bessent announced an expansion of the Treasury buyback operations, which effectively changes a liquidity management tool into a potential instrument for market interventions.

However, this week’s operation disappointed. Yesterday, the US Treasury announced that it will buy back $6 billion in longer-dated Treasury notes today. Although that is three times the normal size, the operation is at the lower end of the $5-8 billion that the market had expected. So, Bessent may have warned yen traders that “he is the house now […] and you can bet against me if you want,” but fixed income traders are still testing how deep the house’s pockets are, and if he is willing to spend it all.

The White House, meanwhile, seems more than willing to spend. President Trump promised a $5,000 “dividend” to every adult US citizen if the Republican party retains control of both houses of Congress. The plan emphasises the pressure that Trump –who denies voters face an affordability crisis– is under ahead of the midterm elections.

Based on Census Bureau population estimates, this promise would cost upwards of $1 trillion. Not only would that add to the $40 trillion in existing debt, but it could also exhaust all the room left until the US hits the debt ceiling – adding to the default risks. However, Congress would have to approve Trump’s plan and his previous “tariff dividend” also failed to gain support on Capitol Hill. 

Indeed, Republican senators are already trying to modify Trump’s plan.

So, investors largely shrugged off Trump’s idea as unlikely to happen. Yet, the uncertainty may still add to US term premia at the margin, at a time when markets are already testing the Treasury Secretary’s resolve.

Rising yields are forcing difficult decisions everywhere, as governments face higher interest bills and deteriorating public finances. Choices can be politically expensive, but not making any choices will cost hard currency.

UK Prime Minister Burnham told said that “national security cannot come at the expense of social security.” Yet, it must be paid for somehow. The prime minister suggested he would get the welfare costs down “the Labour way,” that is, by reforming and changing the system instead of simply cutting benefits.

Burnham promised to present a sound plan, but the added fiscal uncertainty weighed on Gilt yields, at a time when global yields are already rising. This is not quite a Liz Truss moment, but the 30-year yield rose 7 basis points on the day.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 10:25

Existing Home Sales Slump (Again) In August, Supply Hits 10 Year High

Existing home sales tumbled for the 3rd straight month in August, falling 2.0% MoM, sparking its biggest annual decline since January...

This implied an annualized rate of 3.98 million in August, marking one of only two times since the fall of 2024 that sales have dipped below 4 million...

“Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions, so it's not surprising to see a mild dip in home buying activity due to high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

“Still, home prices are rising, and existing home sales are actually up 1.6% year-to-date through the first eight months of the year..." Yun noted.

"Homebuying demand, despite higher interest rates, is no doubt being supported by rising wages, which grew 3.1% in August, along with 643,000 net new jobs added since the start of the year. Job creation and wage growth typically drive housing demand.”

The median sales price rose 1.6% from a year ago to $429,100, extending a streak of annual price increases dating back to mid-2023.

Finally, and more ominously, Yun continued, “The number of months it would take to exhaust the total inventory at the current sales pace has grown to 4.9 months’ supply - its highest level in over ten years. The ample supply of homes for sale on the market is giving homebuyers better opportunities to negotiate.”

A rate-hike is just what the housing market wants (or will Warsh's credibility be regained and lower the long-end?)

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 10:16

After AfD Victory In Saxony-Anhalt, Merz And Weidel Trade Blows During Intense Debate In Bundestag

Via Remix News,

Three days after the Alternative for Germany's (AfD) landslide in Saxony-Anhalt, the Bundestag's general budget debate turned into a verbal battle between AfD co-chair Alice Weidel and Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with the two battling it out over mass immigration, democracy, crime, Ukraine, and the future of Germany.

Heckling filled the chamber. Bundestag President Julia Klöckner repeatedly intervened. The exchange was the first direct parliamentary clash between the two leaders since Sunday's vote, in which the AfD took 43.8 percent and the CDU collapsed to 17.2 percent.

Weidel opened the debate and treated the election results as a verdict on the ruling federal government coalition led by Merz. "The voters in Saxony-Anhalt have made it abundantly clear to you, in the language of the democratic sovereign: the Black-Red coalition is over," she said. Citizens wanted "a change of policy," she added, "and they do not want more of the same."

🇩🇪🔴JUST IN: After AfD's landslide victory, Weidel tells Merz that "the voters in Saxony-Anhalt have communicated to you in the language of the democratic sovereign with all clarity: Black-Red (CDU-SPD ruling coalition) is over."

She slammed the government's new budget during a… pic.twitter.com/i9JCrhBDin

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 9, 2026

Addressing Merz directly, she said he had failed to hear that message.

"That is not especially relevant, because your time has run out anyway. Citizens want a change of policy, and they will get it," she said.

She turned next to the draft federal budget. Weidel called it a "declaration of surrender" and accused Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of "unserious budget management."

"Despite record tax revenues, you are incapable of managing the public's money wisely. Why? Because you are unwilling to free yourselves from the shackles of green ideology, left-wing mass migration, and socialist redistribution."

She said the CDU-SPD government planned more than €1 trillion in new borrowing over its term, a figure she described as unprecedented in the Federal Republic. The result, she argued, would destroy future room for maneuver and leave "scorched earth."

"You are driving Germany into national bankruptcy in record time," she said.

Weidel also continued to slam Merz on mass migration, a sore spot for the ruling government.

"You declare the migration crisis to be over. Yet, every year, a six-figure number of migrants enters the country through the back door of asylum, plus another major city through family reunification - most of them from Muslim tribal cultures," she stated, adding: "More than a million refugees live whose asylum application has been rejected more than once. What are these people actually still doing in this country? They should be deported!"

Weidel accused the coalition of declaring the crisis over while still admitting large numbers of people through asylum procedures and family reunification. She claimed more than a million people whose asylum claims had already been rejected remained in the country and should be deported. Ordinary workers, she said, were paying the price.

"Because [Germans] have to deal daily with the consequences of mass migration, with the hatred of foreign groups toward their own, with hatred of Christians, with hatred of Germans, with hatred of Germany, and you are even providing financial support to these people. This must finally come to an end!"

🇩🇪🔴 After AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt, Alice Weidel takes Chancellor Merz to task during a raucous debate.

"Because [Germans] have to deal daily with the consequences of mass migration, with the hatred of foreign groups toward their own, with hatred of Christians, with… pic.twitter.com/lBjLNPt9hM

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 9, 2026

Energy policy drew the sharpest interjections from the government benches. Weidel called the energy transition "the greatest millstone dragging our economy into the abyss" and "lost, burned money." Germany, she said, was facing a possible winter gas shortage after the destruction of Nord Stream 2 while still sending billions to Ukraine. She demanded renewed Russian gas deliveries, a return to nuclear power, and peace talks.

"While the United States is making another attempt to end the murderous Ukraine war, you are stepping up the war propaganda and the confrontation with Russia," she told the chancellor. When SPD deputies laughed, she snapped: "Do you find that funny? Voters out there can see that the SPD finds deindustrialization funny. So stop laughing."

Merz responds

Merz came out swinging against Weidel, conceding the Saxony-Anhalt result was "remarkable," but said the AfD had missed its actual goal: an absolute majority of seats.

"Fifty-six percent of voters in Saxony-Anhalt did not vote for you," he said. "And you will not achieve that anywhere in Germany with this policy." He accused Weidel of having pushed lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund, within hours of the polls closing, to seek a governing majority after having promised before the election to govern only with an absolute majority.

"You are, and you will remain, Ms. Weidel, a destructive force," he accused.

The sharpest attack from Merz concerned remigration. He said the concept is "nothing other than a synonym for ethnic cleansing based on origin and skin color."

🇩🇪Germany

The anti-immigration AfD party is pursuing a plan of "ethnic cleansing based on skin color and origin," said Chancellor Friedrich Merz during a Bundestag debate.

Follow: @RMXnews pic.twitter.com/2BFmeSXztH

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 9, 2026

If that program were carried out, he claimed, skilled trades, nursing homes, hospitals, and restaurants would cease to function, because one in six workers in the crafts already holds a foreign passport and millions of people with a migration background keep essential services running. The coalition, he said, agreed on deporting people without a right to stay, but distinguished between those who work and contribute and those who must leave. AfD deputies erupted. Several shouted that the claim was false.

On Ukraine, Merz accused the AfD of reversing perpetrator and victim. Neither NATO, the European Union nor Germany had threatened Russia, he said.

"The only thing that truly threatens Russia and Putin is the radiance of democracy." The AfD, he added, still stood with Moscow. "Right there runs the deep rift between you and us, in foreign policy, in European policy, in social policy and in peace policy," he said.

He also charged that Weidel had said nothing about a failed drone incident at Leipzig Airport, a hacking attack on Berlin infrastructure, or this year's fires and weather extremes.

"Not a word from you, Ms. Weidel, about what has been going on in this country this year, he accused her.

At one point in Merz's speech, Klöckner told the AfD that heckling is part of parliamentary life, "but it is not part of constantly interrupting a speaker. You also have to accept that there are other opinions."

When the noise continued, she warned one deputy: "We are not on the football pitch here right now. Save this for the weekend." Later she threatened MPs with expulsion. Merz thanked her and said the interruptions themselves showed the AfD's "contempt for the German Bundestag," adding that "listening is not your strong suit."

With the battle brewing over who controls Saxony-Anhalt still to be decided, and with Merz's CDU crashing below 20 percent in the latest poll, political tensions are set to rise in the coming month.

Read more here...

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 10:00

Iran War Until 2029? Vance, Rubio Privately Warn Trump It Could Drag Through End Of His Term

President Trump on Wednesday told reporters to expect more US attacks on Iranian tankers, as the war over the Hormuz Strait continues to escalate in piecemeal tit-for-tat fashion. 

"The attacks are made by us. We’ve knocked out nine of their ships. I would say that the attacks are caused by us, and you’re going to see a lot more," the president told reporters on Wednesday, adding that many of the Iranian tankers are "donezo" - as global oil prices continue to climb.

The region has now seen over six months of war since Trump launched an operation that he and White House officials at first suggested would just be 'days' - and then insisted (repeatedly) would be a 'four to six week' campaign. 

via The Associated Press

All along the White House has kept moving the goal posts, amid lack of overall strategic vision and failure to articulate what exactly enough of a 'victory' to establish a military exit would look like.

Speaking of drastically moving the goal post, the below was another key media exchange with Trump on Wednesday: 

Q: Do you expect negotiations with Iran to restart at some point?

Trump: Uhhhhhh... we're not looking for it to be honest with you. This war will end immediately after our election.

This as The Wall Street Journal has issued a report saying Trump's top advisors are now warning him that the Iran conflict could last through the rest of his term.

Trump has called it 'small potatoes' - but he may now have his very own forever war...

Top White House advisers have raised privately with President Trump the prospect that the Iran war could drag on through the remainder of his term, U.S. officials said, a message at odds with Trump’s public assurances of a swift victory.

In the Oval Office and Situation Room, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others have discussed with the president that Tehran could continue to resist U.S. pressure under the blockade and other military tactics, potentially extending the conflict past Inauguration Day in January 2029, the officials said.

...oh to have been a fly on the wall during that little meeting.

According to more snippets from the WSJ report:

The closed-door discussions come as Trump told reporters Wednesday that the war will end “immediately” after the midterm elections in November “because they can’t hold out any longer.”  

...Trump often speaks privately with aides of his desire for a quick resolution to the war, which is in its seventh month and has killed 18 servicemembers, the officials said. But Trump also supports a long-term economic siege, using a naval blockade and sanctions in a bid to force the regime to dismantle its nuclear program. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has portrayed the new strategy—dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast”—as an alternative to major combat operations.

Iran has been touting that it is ready to endure and survive at any cost while this week vowing 'disproportionate' responses to any military aggression from the United States.

IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi stated Wednesday, "We have reached a point where if the enemy strikes at 2 or 3 of our targets, we will respond forcefully by striking at 20."

Back in mid-March, at a moment Trump officials were still claiming Operation Epic Fury would be swift and effective, US intelligence at the time assessed that Iran's leadership and government are largely in tact and the system does not risk collapse.

And now, half a year into the war, the exact same can be said. Even the establishment CFR's Foreign Affairs makes the case for a conservative realism contra Bessent's forecasts in Why America Can’t Strangle Iran:

But even as the country’s economic situation is getting worse, Iran’s leadership remains better able to resist the coercive effects of sanctions than it might appear. The state of the economy is not yet impinging on Iran’s ability to wage war. Stockpiles of various goods remain deep, thanks to years of sanctions experience. And the Iranian state, with its powerful repressive tools, has figured out how to offload much of the economic pain onto ordinary Iranians while making sure its own needs are met. Trump’s approach, in other words, can certainly immiserate most of the country’s people. But it cannot successfully strangle the Islamic Republic itself.

One pundit has accurately described the state of play which defines Iran's existential survival posture, pointing out: "Endurance regimes do not need clean victory to change the game. They only need to survive the shock while making the old equilibrium too costly for their adversaries to restore." So 'winning' for Iran looks much different, compared to US objectives.

Anyone have an update on this? pic.twitter.com/frT8CSRcN2

— Ron Shillman (@shillman1) September 9, 2026

But at a moment that Iran's ballistic missile capability is still obviously very much intact - given that just this very week US bases in Jordan were targeted in a huge volley - White House official statements have a Baghdad Bob flavor to them...

"President Trump has destroyed Iran’s military capabilities and is crippling what’s left of its abysmal economy with the most powerful naval blockade in world history and crushing sanctions," White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said. "Only President Trump knows what he will do and when." Ok, sure.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 09:45

Wall Street Responds To Apple's Foldable iPhone As Margin Risks Cloud Launch

Apple revealed its new foldable iPhone on Wednesday afternoon, and Wall Street analysts were largely positive about the specs and demand outlook. However, enthusiasm for the device diminished by mounting concerns that restrained price hikes across the iPhone lineup could pressure hardware margins.

Apple shares are up 1% in premarket trading in New York and about 1.6% higher since the unveiling of the new foldable iPhone and iPhone 18 Pro lineup. The new foldable iPhone starts around $2,000, with the premium model costing up to $3,199.

Did Apple learn anything from the failed launch of the $3,500 Vision Pro?

JUST IN: Internet accuses Apple of photoshopping "freakishly long" fingers into its iPhone Duo marketing, to make the massive foldable look easier to hold one-handed. pic.twitter.com/D8C19tqlFa

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) September 9, 2026

The question floating around multiple Wall Street desks overnight and into Thursday morning is how much of that foldable iPhone and new lineup demand translates into profit.

Jefferies analysts, who maintain an underperform rating and a $263.66 12-month price target, said Apple appears focused on boosting volumes at the expense of margins. Unchanged pricing for the iPhone 17 and Air could support demand while pressuring profitability.

TD Cowen, which rates Apple a "Buy" with a $400 price target, similarly warned that modest price increases could create hardware gross-margin headwinds. The analysts highlighted the new 2-nanometer chip's doubling of AI speed.

"Price increases were modest, which aids affordability, but hardware GM could face more headwinds in the coming year," TD Cowen analysts said.

Vital Knowledge analysts noted, "Duo is a very 'cool' device, with a competitive price point, but it remains to be seen whether Apple can manufacture enough of them to meet demand."

Here is Citi analyst Atif Malik's first take on iPhone Duo:

Apple launched a new foldable product cycle Duo under the new CEO John Ternus today. With a 7.6" inner display and a more iPad-like multi tasking experience, Duo is the biggest new hardware category since Apple Watch/Airpods. 

The launch of the iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max (no standard iPhone 18) and the starting price of $1,999 on Duo shows Apple's iPhone line up is heavily skewed towards premium devices this fall.

Moreover, Apple repriced the IP16/IP17 portfolio by ~$100 with bigger ~$300 increase on higher 1TB storage tier we believe to offset higher memory component prices. Overall, IP18 specs, foldable ASP are in-line and IP18 ASPs below our ~$200 preview. Net-net, with price increase on the older iPhones, we maintain our model and gross margin assumptions. New Siri AI is the most important software announcement as Apple moves from AI features towards AI agent integrated into iOS27. Maintain Buy $365 TP.

Bernstein's Mark Newman asked clients, "What about gross margins?"

Newman explained:

Yesterday Apple held its Surprise and Shine product release, this note summarizes the products announced including specs and prices and potential impact to gross margins.

The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max deliver meaningful improvements with smaller price increase than expected at entry storage levels. Among the improvements, most interesting was the 2nm A20 processor and packaging enabling up to 40% higher sustained performance. The 48 MP main camera with variable aperture and significantly improved battery life (with faster charging) were the other notable improvements. Most interesting though was the price - up only $100 (or 7-8%) on entry 18 Pro and Pro Max models, which was less severe than feared and less than what we've seen from Android competitors. At higher storage tiers though the price increase was more substantial (with 18 Pro Max 2TB at $2,499 up $500 vs. comparable 17 Pro Max).

The well anticipated "Surprise" was the iPhone Duo - Apple's first foldable phone, which didn't disappoint. Unlike most competitor Android offerings, the Duo opens out to an aspect ratio similar to what we're used to with an iPad, which should make it more intuitive and useful for watching movies or have windows side by side. Starting price of $1,999 (for the 256GB option) was also lower than feared and considering this potentially replaces a high-end iPhone and an iPad (at $1000+ each), we believe this price is competitive, but ramps up to a whopping $3,199 for 2TB.

Apple is making steady progress on AI, with the potential to monetize. Apple Intelligence runs on-device whenever possible, with more computationally demanding requests are handled through Private Cloud Compute. Some capabilities that rely on the server models will have usage limits, with increased access available through iCloud+ plans - the first signs of AI monetization.

In addition to price increases on new models, Apple bucked its trend of discounting older models by $100 and actually increased prices of older models by $100 - effectively a $200 price move. This combined with the staggered launch should reduce gross margin impact from rising memory costs.

Our analysis shows that like for like 18 Pro / Pro Max models will have significantly worse gross margins than comparable 17 Pro / Pro Max models. Entry models will see over 1000bps of gross margin dilution, and on average 14% lower gross profit $/unit. However, the iPhone Duo, increased price of older models and staggered launch should reduce this gross margin impact.

While we like the new product releases and believe gross margin hit may not be as bad as feared, there continues to be much uncertainty on new level of gross margins with today's elevated memory prices. On the other-hand, these lower price increases on entry models should help Apple continue to gain market share over Android rivals. We rate Apple Outperform, PT $370, but worry that the stock may not work until December quarter guide is behind us (in late October).

Goldman analyst Michael Ng's first take:

During Apple's Special Event "Surprise and Shine" on September 9th, 2026, AAPL announced its new iPhone lineup (Foldable iPhone Duo, 18 Pro, and 18 Pro Max), updated Apple Watches (Series 12 and Ultra 4), and AirPods 5.

Overall, key product feature announcements (debut of a foldable form factor model, Touch ID to open on the iPhone Duo, new A20-series chips, and rear-camera systems) were largely as expected, and should drive continued strength in device demand.

Furthermore, AAPL's decision to bifurcate the iPhone 18 model launches with lower-end models expected (by us) in Spring 2027 should support continued iPhone ASP growth amidst ongoing device premiumization, further supported by explicit $100 price increases for the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max and the addition of a new premium 2 TB storage option for the iPhone 18 Pro.

We view this favorable price/mix from premium products as supportive of upside to revenue, which should partially mitigate margin headwinds.

Importantly, Apple's new Apple Upgrade program & attractive carrier promotions (Free/$99 iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max with eligible trade-in and plan) should support affordability against +$100 price increases. Additionally, as expected, AAPL announced new Apple Watch products (Apple Watch Series 12 and Ultra 4) and new AirPods 5. All iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models will be available for pre-order in over 63 countries and regions on Saturday, September 12th with availability beginning Friday, September 18th, while the iPhone Duo will be available for pre-order on Friday, October 16th with availability beginning Friday, October 23rd

Apple shares initially fell as Wednesday afternoon's launch event began around 1 p.m. ET, then reversed course and rallied 3% from the session low.

For new CEO John Ternus, the foldable iPhone's roughly $2,000 to $3,200 price tag sets up a major test of Apple's pricing power and ability to scale production. Strong demand could lift revenue and shift sales toward premium devices, but soaring memory costs coupled with modest price hikes could threaten margins, according to warnings on Wall Street desks. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 09:15

"Bulletproofing The Hemisphere": Rubio Kicks Off South America Tour As Continent Lurches Right

Secretary of State Marco Rubio kicked off his three-nation tour of Latin America on Tuesday, first meeting with Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella. He will visit Ecuador and Peru later this week, supporting the Trump administration's increasing engagement with a growing bloc of right-leaning governments aligned with the US.

At their meeting in the coastal city of Barranquilla, de la Espriella said he and Rubio discussed security cooperation against drug trafficking, improved economic ties and an expanded role for Colombia in what he called "bulletproofing the hemisphere." He said Colombia would be an ally to the US on neighboring Venezuela.

El secretario de Estado Marco Rubio y el presidente Abelardo de la Espriella firmaron en Barranquilla acuerdos estratégicos de enorme peso: minerales críticos y cooperación nuclear civil.

Colombia deja de mirar hacia atrás y se sienta en la mesa grande. El Tigre no llegó a pedir… pic.twitter.com/NPcQvReZcc

— Jhonf Fonseca (@Jhonffonseca) September 9, 2026

"Colombia wants to newly consolidate itself as the principal hemispheric partner for the United States on security," said de la Espriella, who took office on August 7 after beating former socialist President Gustavo Petro.  

De la Espriella is among a new generation of right-wing leaders recently elected across South America, reflecting a once-in-a-generation political shift likely influenced by the Trump administration's effort to rid the West of socialist and Chinese influence.

Rubio said the White House hoped to restore cooperation and "perhaps to build upon it," adding, "And I think you have a president here now that is very interested in making that happen." 

SECRETARY RUBIO in COLOMBIA: Security is the basic and most important requirement of government, but prosperity follows closely behind it. pic.twitter.com/FsuPWEhjGA

— Department of State (@StateDept) September 8, 2026

Rubio's next stop on the tour is Ecuador and Peru, whose governments are also aligned with the Trump administration. 

SECRETARY RUBIO in COLOMBIA: Security is the basic and most important requirement of government, but prosperity follows closely behind it. pic.twitter.com/FsuPWEhjGA

— Department of State (@StateDept) September 8, 2026

Rubio's tour comes a little more than a week after President Trump secured the "biggest oil deal in history" with Venezuela, resulting in a major stake in more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves. 

The oil fields are "going to generate royalties and revenues for the Venezuelan people, eventually through a democratically elected government, hopefully sooner rather than later, and directly benefit the people of Venezuela as opposed to going into the pocket of some, you know, corrupt government official or in the hands of American and Venezuelan adversaries," Rubio said.

Brazil holds its first-round presidential election on October 4. If needed, a presidential runoff can be held on October 25. Right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is narrowly ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the latest polls, although those leads fall within the surveys' margins of error. Other polls show the two tied.

The election will determine the leadership and direction of the continent's largest economy. 

Traders are already positioning ahead of the Brazilian election, as we showed on Monday with an "explosive surge" in call open interest in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ).

And someone appears to be making a huge bet on just that: explosive surge in EWZ call OI https://t.co/nqFaGgms4R pic.twitter.com/uen9bXmqBw

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 8, 2026

Regional ETF outperformers include Peru, up 31%; Brazil, up 20.5%; and Latin America 40, up 19.9%.

These ETFs are beginning to attract buying interest heading into late summer.

Brazil's election is now a key focus for investors, with the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) gauging market positioning ahead of the vote.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 09:00

Watch: Prosecutor Claims It's 'Wrong, But Not Illegal' To Jerk-Off In Front Of Kids

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

A Soros-backed Florida prosecutor told the public that a man pleasuring himself on a park bench in front of children was "wrong," then insisted it is not a crime.

Ninth Judicial Circuit State Attorney Monique Worrell used a press conference to defend her office's refusal to charge Kevin Chapman, 61, after his arrest at Kit Land Nelson Park in Apopka.

A father and his two-year-old were at the splash pad. Witnesses, park staff, photos and video put Chapman on a bench with his hand in his shorts, facing the children, for minutes. The park manager said his shorts dropped when he stood up.

? BREAKING: In a disgusting move, Soros-backed State Attorney Monique Worrell says that while a man m*sturbating in front of kids at a park is WRONG, but "not illegal."

"All things that are wrong are not illegal!"

WTF?! This is FLORIDA. SUSPEND HER. pic.twitter.com/iN7pyNkaYV

— War Correspondent (@warDaniel47) September 7, 2026

"All things that are wrong are not illegal, and I'm not standing before you today telling you that what happened in that park was wrong," said the prosecutor, adding "But I am standing before you today telling you that I trust the word of the attorney who was assigned to this case when he said, although those actions were wrong, he could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that they were illegal."

Florida law is not a riddle. Section 800.04(7) makes it a second-degree felony for an adult to intentionally masturbate, expose genitals in a lewd manner, or commit another sexual act without contact in the presence of a child under 16.

That is up to 15 years.

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier put it in a formal letter: her office not only skipped pretrial detention, it declined to charge him at all and called the case "not suitable for prosecution."

"Central Florida deserves better than a state attorney who prioritizes the guilty over protecting the innocent," Uthmeier said. "She gave this guy a free walk in the park, and now other kids are in jeopardy of having a tragic incident happen to them."

Worrell's counter was that the toddler supposedly did not clock what was happening, and that no other adult saw the genitals clearly enough. In other words, a man can sit in a children's park and finish the job so long as the two-year-old is too young to give a courtroom speech about it.

She then turned the argument into a grievance about Gov. Ron DeSantis, who suspended her in 2023 for dereliction of duty. Voters put her back. The children at the splash pad did not get a vote.

"It is clear that the underlying intention here is to unjustly remove me from office, yet again," she said. Of Uthmeier: "He struts and shouts as if volume can mask ignorance, but all he's proven is that he's a punchline in a job that demands serious leadership."

In 2020, Our Vote Our Voice PAC poured about $1.5 million into ads for Worrell. A million of that came from Democracy PAC, created by George Soros. This is what that project produces: a prosecutor who can look at a man wanking on a park bench in front of a splash pad and reach for the phrase "not suitable for prosecution."

The same office also dropped local charges against Thomas Dolgos, 47, who possessed and shared videos of infants and toddlers being raped. Statewide prosecutors were already on the case. After the local charges vanished, Dolgos fled and was grabbed at the Canadian border. Uthmeier's description of that file was blunt: "videos of toddlers getting raped and abused."

Of course, the core issue here is scumbags masturbating in public.

As we've highlighted, women and children across Europe keep meeting foreign men who treat trains, beaches, bus stops, pools, metro cars and church doors as private booths. Nobody voted for it. Nobody should have to live with it.

The examples are bountiful.

In Forest Park Brussels last May, a man started masturbating in front of a group of women. One woman hit him with a water bottle and ran. He threw a shoe at her face. When he was confronted, a witness said he offered the philosophy in one sentence: "She's half-naked; I don't see why I shouldn't be able to masturbate."

Another woman described "not a shred of shame or remorse." Police only grabbed him two days later at Place de la Bourse.

That is the same shrug Worrell dressed up as legal reasoning. He said the quiet part. She put it on a podium.

In another incident, young Spanish girls filmed a migrant masturbating in front of them on the mainland.

??? A group of young Spanish girls filmed a migrant masturbating in front of them.

It is unclear if he came through Ceuta or some other route.

Follow: @RMXnews pic.twitter.com/zBwyLjcm5S

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) August 25, 2026

A Spanish woman described a Moroccan doing it on a train while she sat with her boyfriend; they stayed quiet because they thought he might turn violent. When she named his origin, other women called her racist.

???? «Siempre son los mismos»: la denuncia viral de una joven después de que un inmigrante se masturbase delante de ella en un tren.

? Declaraciones completas: https://t.co/b2wLPaZGat pic.twitter.com/EmJaqUowS9

— okdiario.com (@okdiario) August 17, 2026

In Palma, a young Moroccan man was filmed masturbating in broad daylight on Calle Industria in the Molinos district, "in front of numerous minors who were going to Mass." Theo man stood at a doorway with his genitals out, porn playing on his phone, while families, children and elderly people moved toward church. People shouted at him. He kept going. Police were called. He left before officers found him.

? Un joven marroquí se m*sturba a las puertas de una iglesia de Palma y ante numerosos menores que iban a misa. pic.twitter.com/fwxxjtx3Ha

— okdiario.com (@okdiario) September 7, 2026

In the same city, National Police arrested a Moroccan man after he filmed himself masturbating while watching two underage girls on Playa de Palma.

Detenido un inmigrante marroquí por grabarse mientras se masturbaba mirando a dos niñas menores en la playa de Palmahttps://t.co/V2n4ELG9FT

— LA GACETA (@gaceta_es) June 1, 2026

In February, a 22-year-old Moroccan was pulled off an EMT bus in Palma after masturbating in front of passengers, including children as young as five.

In Ceuta, a Moroccan man in his 40s or 50s masturbated in front of children at Fuente Caballos beach. Bathers were close to handling it themselves. Police had to fight him as they attempted to remove him. He admitted exhibitionism. The sentence was an eight-month fine of five euros a day.

?? Condenado por exhibicionismo tras masturbarse ante menores en Fuente Caballos#Ceuta https://t.co/oXBsrFWIAA

— El Faro de Ceuta (@ElFarodeCeuta) July 20, 2026

Video from a packed Italian shore showed an African migrant masturbating among families and children while men nearby watched and did nothing.

Disturbing video out of Italy shows an African migrant masturbating on a beach full of children, as police and Italian men do absolutely nothing to stop it but watch. Italy is full of WEAK MEN. pic.twitter.com/5crRGlokFX

— SaskRiderGal?? (@saskridergal) June 25, 2026

Another clip showed the same act at an outdoor pool in front of children; when the man was confronted and lost the fight, a white woman threw herself in front of him to shield him.

Italy:A n African migrant began publicly masturbating in front of children at an outdoor pool in Italy. He was then confronted and started a fight, which he lost.

Suddenly, a white woman threw herself in front of him to protect him. https://t.co/54TvRCUQ5P

— Wolverine Update (@W0lverineupdate) June 26, 2026

Near Portofino, an African man did it on the sand in front of Langosteria di Paraggi, again with families and children present.

Africano si masturba sulla spiaggia davanti alla Langosteria di Paraggi vicino a Portofino, in mezzo a famiglie con bambini – VIDEO https://t.co/J04lmCM5dn

A pochi giorni di distanza dallo scandalo di Pegli, dove un africano si è masturbato davanti ai bambini in spiaggia, un ... pic.twitter.com/7CvNQw8rwm

— Eventi e News (@eventixnews) June 29, 2026

The Paris Metro produced the same spectacle in a packed carriage.

Migrant openly masturbating on the Paris metro, this is what Western leaders have allowed our nations to become.

This post will like go against twitter's community standards but the act itself of this absolute filth doesn't seem to be an issue to governments and authorities ? pic.twitter.com/xFsQVsx3bX

— Janey (@_janey_j) August 13, 2022

Hannover produced it in front of families and young girls. The locations change. The audience does not.

??LINKS NEDERLAND.Daarom willen wij deze idiote gasten niet in Nederland.walgelijk waar kinderen lopen
Neem ze in huis bij je dochter

African migrant masturbating in front of families and young girls in Hannover,Germany

Every Western country is being swamped with this filth pic.twitter.com/BJ8Y7FiI6Z

— Margie (@Maryzeggenze) August 6, 2024

Britain is not exempt. A Scottish woman named Margaret called a BBC morning show and described a foreign man masturbating in front of her at a bus stop. She said she was disappointed in herself for lacking the courage to stop it.

NO-ONE SHOULD EVER HAVE TO WITNESS THIS!

Scottish lady, Margaret, called into the BBC morning radio show and shared an encounter she had at a bus stop.

A foreign man was MASTURBATING in front of her.

She was left feeling disappointed in herself that she didn't have the courage... pic.twitter.com/PUQUMYlxNY

— The Nationalist GB (@TheNatGB) August 26, 2026

In Newcastle, witnesses said a repeat offender rubbed himself in a packed city-centre fast food restaurant with children present, then did the same at the Burger King inside Newcastle Central Station during half-term.

Usual suspect caught touching himself inappropriately in a packed city centre fast food restaurant where children were present.

Same Alkfuv left witnesses stunned by rubbing his groin area at the Burger King inside Newcastle Central Station during half-term.

The incident... pic.twitter.com/OVdTWXYPoV

— Tommy Robinson ?? (@TRobinsonNewEra) August 21, 2026

A British woman filmed an illegal migrant touching himself at a bus stop; when he was spotted, he made a shooting gesture. He already had a record for the same thing.

?? En Reino Unido, un inmigrante ilegal fué descubierto por una mujer británica, cuando se estaba tocando sus genitales en un paradero de autobus, al ser descubierto hizo gestos como de disp4rar. Este ilegal tiene antecedentes por hacer lo mismo, pero por alguna razón sigue... pic.twitter.com/mBu8NAg1Ce

— Carlo Martin (@Liberfach0) August 21, 2026

Police in West Yorkshire later tried to "reassure the public" after a Leeds bus-stop exposure video resurfaced.

Police reassure public after Leeds bus stop exposure video resurfaces online https://t.co/y3XhGSQwy0 https://t.co/OUUjCV0v5U

— Telegraph & Argus (@Bradford_TandA) August 22, 2026

And on and on and on it goes...

Is this one of your doctors just arrived via boat @ShabanaMahmood https://t.co/AKuMMUz5Ld

— BillyS (@BillyS2401) August 21, 2026

And on...

Small-Boat Engineer Masturbating At The Bus Stop In Ireland ??

Dublin is a diverse area in eastern Ireland. According to the 2022 Census, roughly 67% of residents in County Dublin identify as White Irish. The remaining 33% come from a wide mix of backgrounds, including Any other... pic.twitter.com/bRcIMvIKwG

— BritMatters ?? (@britmatters) August 22, 2026

Children are not a gray area. A park bench facing a splash pad is not an acceptable arena for solo sexual pleasure. A church door at Mass is not a safe space for a wrong un with a phone full of porn. If a justice system cannot say that out loud and then act, it has stopped being a justice system. It has become a protection racket for the worst scum of the Earth.

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Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 08:45

EUR Drops As ECB Hikes Rates (As Expected); Raises Inflation Outlook, Sees Downside Growth Risks

The European Central Bank increased interest rates for the second time since the Iran war broke out in February, responding to signs inflation is set to stay well above 2%.

The deposit rate was lifted by a quarter-point to 2.5% on Thursday, as predicted by almost all economists in a Bloomberg survey.

“The conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period,” it said in a statement.

“The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth.”

GUIDANCE:

As widely expected, the Governing Council left his language on the future rate path unchanged, repeating the mantra of being “well-positioned" and following a "data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach."

That actually leaves all options open for the coming months, and it seems likely that Lagarde will try to do the same later.

INFLATION

• Inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period.

The ECB raised its inflation outlook for the next two years...

• *ECB SEES 2027 INFLATION AT 2.5%%; PRIOR FORECAST 2.3%

• *ECB SEES 2028 INFLATION AT 2.1%; PRIOR FORECAST 2%

• *ECB SEES 2027 INFLATION EX-FOOD/ENERGY AT 2.6%% VS 2.5%

Despite more encouraging signals, though, as underlying inflation and a closely watched gauge of services prices retreated. Wage pressures also eased.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

• The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth.

Thursday’s move puts euro-area policymakers further ahead of their peers in reacting to the energy-price surge that’s produced the fastest inflation in almost three years.

Traders see the ECB doing more, pricing two further hikes by mid-2027.

That contrasts with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which are yet to tighten monetary policy over the fighting in the Middle East and may refrain again next week.

Interestingly, despite the relative hawkishness, the EUR is fading this news...

Patrick Ernst, a strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank:

“The ECB moved as anticipated, but what accompanied that rate decision matters more. In keeping the door open to further tightening, policymakers made clear that an energy-led inflation risk is still very much in play. One hike is not a ceiling. The odds of another before year-end have risen.”

President Christine Lagarde, who continues to be linked with an early departure from her role, will face journalists at 14:45 p.m. in Berlin.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 08:27

Futures Slide As Yields, Oil Spike Ahead Of PPI

US stock futures slumped for a 3rd consecutive day, unable to find traction, and trading at session lows with tech underperforming as Treasury yields pushed higher keeping risk appetite firmly in check ahead of the latest print on US factory prices and earnings from Oracle. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2%, with Nasdaq futures lagging, and down 0.5%. Pre-market, MegaCap Tech stocks are mixed, led by AAPL and META +1.0%. Overnight, TSMC reported a 53% increase in monthly sales amid strong AI infrastructure demand. Incremental macro news flow were largely muted since yesterday’s close: Trump promised $5k division if GOP wins the midterm, which sparked fresh fiscal stability concerns and pushed yields to fresh 3 year highs, as the 10Y tops 4.88%. The USD reversed an earlier drop to trade at session highs as the Yen slumps. Commodities are mixed: Oil higher (WTI +1.7%), while precious metals are lower; base metals and Ags are higher. US economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims and August PPI (8:30 a.m.) and August existing home sales and July wholesale inventories (10 a.m.). Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed but fading fast: Meta rises 1.3% as JPMorgan upgrades to overweight, citing upside potential after the social media giant launched its AI assistant (Apple +1.1%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft little changed, Amazon -0.1%, Nvidia -0.5%, Tesla -0.7%

• Copper stocks are falling after Reuters reported that the White House has not ​yet made a decision on refined copper tariffs as it weighs concerns of higher prices raising manufacturing costs against the potential benefits of encouraging more domestic mining, citing two people familiar with the matter.
• AeroVironment (AVAV) rises 4% after the drone maker reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• American Eagle (AEO) falls 14% after the apparel firm’s second-quarter total comparable sales fell short of the average analyst estimate. Analysts note that strength at its aerie brand was more than offset by weakness at AE.
• Cooper (COO) tumbles 16% after the healthcare supplies maker cut its adjusted earnings-per-share and revenue guidance for the full year. Analysts note weakness in the firm’s CooperVision unit weighing on its sales forecast.
• JetBlue (JBLU) falls 2% after the airline cut its available seat miles forecast for the third quarter.
• Kinetik (KNTK) climbs 4% as the energy pipeline company partly owned by Blackstone is in the early stages of exploring options, including a sale, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Macy’s (M) slips 1% as investors weigh much better-than-expected comparable sales and adjusted EPS in the second quarter against a less robust third-quarter guidance.
• Navan (NAVN) slumps 15% after the software company gave an outlook that analysts said pointed to weaker trends in the second half of the year, despite overall solid growth.
• Rackspace Technology (RXT) climbs 13% after the company said it had joined the Nvidia Cloud Partner Program.

In other corporate news Citadel Securities told regulators that prediction market contracts linked to publicly-traded companies should be overseen by the SEC. Boring Co. secured $3 billion in fresh funding backed by the UAE, valuing Elon Musk’s tunneling startup at $23 billion.

Sentiment remains muted as inflationary signs grow: Brent is now trading above $103 (with Shanghai trading at $115!) as Iran vowed it was prepared for a more intense war, LME copper futures hit new records, and global tanker freight rates reached all-time highs.

Investors are also bracing for a busy calendar that could provide fresh catalysts for markets. The packed agenda comes after global yields climbed to the highest in years as the war in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, prompting traders to bet on tighter monetary policy across the globe.

First up is the latest European Central Bank interest rate decision, with a hike already priced in and the focus instead on guidance. Earnings from Oracle Corp. will offer a fresh read on the outlook for artificial intelligence.  

Meanwhile, the August producer price index could offer clues on the course of inflation for the rest of the year and what it means for US rates. Today’s PPI number, followed by CPI on Friday, are key for market direction. With PPI components feeding directly into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and Fed’s Waller saying that the August data will heavily influence his decision, a hot print could materially reprice September rate-hike odds, currently at 61%. Stocks currently have greater sensitivity to bond yields, with S&P 500 equity risk premium relative to Treasury yields at lowest since 2002.

“Today’s PPI report matters, but probably not enough on its own to change the Fed’s decision next week,” said Santiago Mateo Yanguas at CaixaBank AM. “That said, a significant upside or downside surprise could still move markets today by shifting expectations for the rate path beyond the next meeting, particularly in Treasury yields and interest rate-sensitive sectors.”

Oracle reports after the US close with its shares down 17% this year, sharply underperforming tech peers as traders punished the firm over concerns about heavy capital spending and leverage. While cloud unit sales are projected to have more than doubled in the first fiscal quarter, recent market moves show that strong earnings aren’t always enough to win investors over. Separate figures from Adobe Inc. will offer another window into how software giants are navigating the challenge from AI.

“While quarterly results may trigger short-term volatility, we see the underlying earnings trend as the more important driver of long-term equity performance,” said Francisco Simon at Santander Asset Management. “The structural growth story remains intact, and that is ultimately what matters.”

Meanwhile, markets largely shrugged off President Donald Trump’s promise to give adult US citizens a $5,000 dividend if Republicans retain control of both houses of Congress.

“Markets appear to assign a very low probability to the measure becoming law, given the significant fiscal cost and the political hurdles it would face in Congress,” said CaixaBank’s Yanguas. “Unless the proposal gains tangible legislative support, investors are likely to treat it more as campaign rhetoric.”

Still, while Trump's offer was met with skepticism by the market, it adds to concerns about erratic policymaking at a time when Bessent is striving to keep yields down. Yesterday’s buyback announcement disappointed many who had expected more than the up to $6 billion announced: The “Treasury brought a pea shooter to a tank battle,” said Elias Haddad, Global Head of Markets Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Still, the ‘Trump dividend’ would cover the cost of a shiny new iPhone. Part of the sticker shock had been well flagged, with memory prices for smartphones surging as the AI buildout sucks up supply. Hyperscaler spending will be back in the spotlight after the close when Oracle reports — it’ll be a big test of market tolerance for AI spending given the company’s massive debt load.

There’s no signs of a slowdown in the AI buildout yet. TSMC posted the second fastest year-on-year monthly sales print for 2026, with the company struggling to meet overwhelming demand. Microsoft’s CFO said at an investor conference that Azure was supply constrained, while AI chipmakers in China are reportedly raising processor prices.

The upside in oil has also weighed on equities with the Stoxx 600 down 0.2% after erasing an earlier gain. European shares slipped for a third day ahead of an ECB meeting that’s expected to deliver an interest-rate increase and could offer clues on further policy tightening. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• FirstRand shares gained as much as 4.5%, the most since May, after the South African lender reported full-year results, which JPMorgan analysts said reflect “robust” momentum
• MP Evans Group gained as much as 6.5%, to the highest since May, after the Indonesian palm oil producer announced an acquisition of new land in Kota Bangun
• Genfit shares climbed as much as 12%, the most in over two months, after the biopharmaceutical firm outlined the commercial prospects for its non-invasive diagnostic test for MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis), sparking price-target upgrades
• D’Ieteren shares rose as much as 6.4%, the most in more than four months, after adjusted pretax profits rose in the first half
• Corbion advanced as much as 5.7%, to the highest since Feb. 2025, as Oddo BHF lifts its price target on the Dutch food ingredients firm to a joint Street-high
• AB Foods shares fell as much as 11%, the most since January, after the Primark owner reduced its profit guidance for the Sugar and Grocery divisions
• Genus shares fell as much as 9.8%, the most since February, after full-year revenue at the livestock breeding and genetics group missed analyst expectations
• Hemnet fell as much as 9.6%, the most since April, after the Swedish property listings platform announced it will pause its share buyback program of up to SEK600m in ordinary shares
• Fevertree Drinks fell as much as 6.5%, the most in more than a year, after the beverage company reported first-half earnings that came in shy of expectations

“We don’t think that the ECB would be more hawkish than current pricing,” noted Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “We expect Lagarde to keep the future path of monetary policy data-dependent and not lean into a series of rate hikes.”

Asian stocks fell, tracking losses on Wall Street, as oil prices surged past $102 a barrel and intensified concerns that inflationary pressures would keep interest rates elevated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.3%, the most in a week, before paring some losses as chipmakers recovered from session lows. TSMC, Delta Electronics, Tencent and Alibaba were among the biggest drags on the gauge. South Korea’s Kospi closed down 0.3%, while most other benchmarks in Asia, including Taiwan and Hong Kong, traded lower. After being down much of the day, Japan’s Topix recovered and ended 0.2% higher, with Recruit Holdings contributing the most to the gains.  “Oil price fluctuations and the upside of some of the near-term escalations that we’ve seen have really been some of the key risks that market has to fathom as we head toward the the end of this year,” said Yuting Shao, senior director for global macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management. Earlier this week, MSCI’s Asia stock gauge approached near June’s record high as sectors beyond technology drove the rally. But renewed Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, with Brent crude holding gains after Iran said it was prepared for a more intense war with the US. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat. The krone is the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.3% against the greenback.

In rates, the downside in Treasuries has pushed US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.87%, the highest since October 2023. Advancing energy prices weigh on Treasuries and front-end gilts, which have underperformed during London morning. With Treasury front-end yields about 1-2bp higher on the day and 10-year about 4bp higher near 4.855%, 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are about 2bp wider. Gilts lead the selloff in European government bonds with UK two-year borrowing costs rising to the highest since November 2023. US session highlights include August PPI data, 30-year bond auction and results of the 10- to 20-year buyback shortly after 2 p.m. New York time. 

WTI crude oil futures remain higher by about 1.7% after rising as much as 1.9%; Brent crude topped $102 a barrel amid signs US war on Iran will be protracted

Treasury auction cycle concludes with $22 billion 30-year bond reopening; Wednesday’s 10-year note auction drew strong demand as measured by its clearing yield 1.5bp lower than indicated by the WI level at the bidding deadline. WI 30-year yield near 5.31% is 9.4bp higher than last month’s new-issue auction result, a 0.4bp tail. IG dollar issuance slate includes Kommunalbanken 3-year offering; 16 borrowers priced $23 billion of US investment-grade bonds Wednesday, pushing two-day volume above $61 billion. Issuers paid about 4bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.1 times covered.

In commodities, Brent crude futures rise over 2% and above $103 for the first time since July with Iran ready for a more intense war. Oil prices did fall earlier in the session, providing a modicum of support to bonds after Wednesday’s selloff but that proved short lived.Spot silver falls 1% while gold is little changed.

US economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims and August PPI (8:30 a.m.) and August existing home sales and July wholesale inventories (10 a.m.). Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Trump on Wednesday suggested his Iran war might end after the mid-terms, but some of his top advisors warn it could last the duration of his presidency, potentially extending the conflict past Inauguration Day in January 2029. WSJ
• Donald Trump promised $5,000 for every US adult if Republicans retain Congress, which must be spent in the US and will cost well over $1 trillion. The move signaled mounting concern over affordability and fiscal discipline as voters sour on the economy and Iran war. BBG
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent touted tax cuts, job increases, trade rebalance and Trump accounts during his speech at the RNC Midterm Convention.
• Within weeks of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, once Saudi Arabia’s primary export route for oil, the kingdom turned to Plan B: bypassing the strait by ramping up exports through pipelines to Red Sea. NYT
• The South Korean government is nearing the announcement of a major energy investment project in the U.S. to support America’s artificial-intelligence build-out, a long-awaited development of the trade deal struck between Washington and Seoul last year. The deal, potentially worth more than $100 billion, envisions South Korea financing the construction of up to eight nuclear power plants and a natural-gas project. WSJ
• The popularity of high-risk bets among investors looking to cash in on South Korea’s artificial-intelligence boom has caused concern at the central bank. A surge of investment in leveraged exchange-traded funds tied to tech titans such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix generated significant volatility in the domestic stock market, the Bank of Korea said, calling for stronger oversight and regulation of leveraged ETFs as they risk sowing instability. WSJ 
• The ECB is widely expected to raise rates for the second time since the Iran war sent energy prices soaring. The focus will be on signals from Christine Lagarde as markets see at least two more hikes. BBG
• The Bank of Japan may eventually be forced to raise interest rates rapidly if inflation accelerates given the country's loose financial conditions, board member Kazuyuki Masu said, warning of price risks ‌that solidify the chance of a September hike. In a closely watched speech ahead of next week's policy meeting, Masu warned of broadening price pressures that have pushed underlying inflation "very close" to its 2% target. Reuters
• US PPI likely firmed in August after a renewed pickup in commodity prices. Consensus expects a 0.4% monthly increase. BBG
• TSM reported record monthly revenue for August on Thursday, as demand for chips used in artificial intelligence applications remained strong. The world’s largest contract chipmaker posted revenue of $514.8 billion New Taiwan dollars ($16.35 billion) for last month, up 53.3% from a year earlier and 10.1% from July. CNBC
• BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 5th Sept) +7.8% Y/Y (prev. +3.7% W/W). BofA said that the surge in spending growth was likely due to base effects from the shift in Labour Day timing and a rebound in gas prices.
• A US AI safety bill could be introduced next week, Semafor reported citing sources.
• A US Republican-led Senate subcommittee is investigating OpenAI's handling of the Hugging Face breach in July, Axios reported.
• S&P500 EPS growth in Q2 2026 was ~30% year / year excluding the "other income" related to some private investment stakes. Earnings for the hyperscalers and the AI infrastructure companies benefiting from their capex spending increased by 54% year / year in Q2, accounting for about 50% of S&P 500 EPS growth during the quarter. However, earnings growth for the rest of the market has also been strong and accelerating. Excluding the Energy sector profits that were boosted by higher oil prices, the rest of the S&P 500 posted year/year EPS growth of 14%: GS FICC

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower following the losses stateside, where all major indices declined as yields and oil prices climbed, with Brent crude topping USD 100/bbl for the first time since July. ASX 200 underperformed amid broad-based weakness across sectors and with the downside led by materials, mining, resources, and tech. Nikkei 225 was pressured alongside a higher yield environment and ongoing rate hike expectations, while BoJ board member Masu also stuck to the hawkish hymn sheet. KOSPI declined at the open but was off today's worst levels as SK Hynix rebounded from intraday lows. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the subdued mood across the region in the absence of bullish drivers and after the PBoC conducted open market operations, but at a paltry amount of CNY 3bln.

Top Asian News

• PBoC's Lu Lei said the Bank will refine the RRR framework and conduct open-market operations more flexibly and precisely.
• Japanese MOF Official Sato said the government is not considering buying back JGBs at this point.

European bourses are mixed, with Italy's and Spain's main indices (IBEX 35/FTSE MIB +0.2%) outperforming while the FTSE 100 (-0.4%) is the slight laggard. Light in terms of newsflow this Thursday morning, with focus being on US data (PPI on Thursday, CPI on Friday) and the ECB. Sectors point to a mixed picture. Autos top the sector pile, followed by Travel & Leisure and Insurance. To the downside is Tech, with Basic Resources and Construction rounding out the sector laggards.

Top European News

• German HICP Final (Aug MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%).
• German HICP Final (Aug YY) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%).
• Norwegian Core CPI (Aug YY) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 2.7%).
• Norwegian Core CPI (Aug MM) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.8%).
• Swedish GDP (Jul MM) -0.8% (Prev. -0.2%).
• Italian Industrial Production (Jul MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -1.1%).
• Italian Industrial Production (Jul YY) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -0.6%).
• Spanish Industrial Production (Jul YY) 2.3% (Prev. 1.1%); M/M 0.6% (exp. 0.2%).
• UK RICS House Price Balance (Aug) -28 vs Exp. -30 (Prev. -30, Rev. -29).

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the flat USD. The Kiwi incrementally gains, whilst the JPY posts slight losses. Ultimately, price action has been sideways this morning, with focus on US PPI and the ECB later.
• DXY trades sideways and holds within a 98.70 to 98.82 range. There has been a lack of pertinent newsflow for the USD this morning, and it ultimately awaits US PPI this afternoon. There may be added focus on today’s report, with traders looking for any clues heading into the CPI report on Friday. Jobless Claims are also on the docket. Yields continue to trudge higher, as energy benchmarks remain above USD 100/bbl. However, as mentioned in yesterday's piece, the USD has largely ignored the higher yield environment. Much of this is likely due to the recent JPY strength, and also some fiscal-related fears creeping into markets. Moreover, markets will likely avoid making firm bets on the USD ahead of CPI (tomorrow) and the Fed next week.
• EUR trades within a 1.1629 to 1.1641 range, and holds near its 200-DMA at 1.1633. EUR action will be dictated by the ECB this afternoon, where the Bank is set to deliver a 25bps hike. Aside from the decision, focus will be on the updated staff projections (inflation to be upwardly revised), and any guidance for action later in the year. ING opines that President Lagarde could use her presser to push back on some of the markets’ hawkish bets, which currently price in another hike this year. However, the likelihood is that the President will reiterate her data-dependent and non-committal approach.
• JPY has been in focus for the past couple of weeks, with USD/JPY falling c. 4.5% since the start of the month. The pair is a bit more contained this morning, despite hawkish commentary from BoJ’s Masu, who stated that he expects to continue raising rates given current accommodative conditions. USD/JPY currently holds at the mid-point of a 153.28 to 153.74 range.

Fixed Income

• Despite a slightly firmer start for Bunds and USTs, as energy took a relative breather in late-APAC/early-European trade, fixed has reverted into the red and continues to falter as energy climbs once more with Brent above USD 102/bbl.
• USTs are once again below the 107-00 mark, and to an incremental WTD base of 106-29, which is also a contract low. Amidst this, yields are marginally firmer across the curve, with the 2yr to a 4.41% peak and the 10yr to 4.86%. Aside from the energy move, upside is a function of participants digesting commentary from President Trump at the RNC where he pledged a USD 5k dividend following a strong mid-term performance; while unlikely to occur, as it would need Congressional approval, the payment would cost in excess of USD 1tln and add further pressure to already strained public finances.
• Today, for the US, the docket is dominated by PPI and weekly claims. Note, the PPI release comes ahead of Friday’s CPI, which could well define the outcome of the September Fed. Thereafter, we look to supply and given, counterintuitively, the upside seen in yields on the Treasury buyback announcement on Wednesday, the 30yr tap today may garner extra attention. For reference, the 10yr (after the buyback announcement) was very strong, with the mentioned yield move beforehand potentially providing some additional concession into it.
• Bunds also lower, by just over 20 ticks at a 121.11 base, matching the low from Wednesday. Specifics for the region light, no move to final CPI earlier. Ahead, the docket is dominated by the ECB. A hike is widely expected, but the decision may not be a unanimous one. Additionally, we look for any deviation in the statement and/or Lagarde from the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, to a potential hawkish tilt given recent developments. On this, the 2027 & 2028 HICP forecasts will be key. However, recent moves in crude and TTF mean they are likely already somewhat stale and the expected upward revision to the forecasts is perhaps not sufficient. Something that may be elaborated on by Lagarde.
• The UK sells GBP 5bln 4.625% 2030 Treasury Gilt: b/c 3.24x, average yield 4.786%, tail 0.3bps.
• Italy sells EUR 7.75bln vs exp. EUR 6.5-7.75bln 3.00% 2029, 3.35% 2033 and 2.15% 2072 BTP.

Commodities

• WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures eke out mild gains, with prices continuing to be underpinned by the Middle Eastern situation, which shows no signs of abating. The former resides in a current USD 95.37-97.84/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 93.76-96.93/bbl range) whilst the latter trades in a USD 100.19-102.72/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 98.80-101.87/bbl parameter). Upside is somewhat capped by the delayed Private Inventory report, which showed a smaller draw than expected, with the DoE slated for today on account of Monday’s US holiday. Dutch TTF front-month has mounted EUR 80/MWh after finding an earlier base just above EUR 78/MWh, with prices continuing to be underpinned by Middle East supply woes alongside heating demand heading out of summer.
• Metals are subdued as higher energy prices keep the complex capped from a growth perspective, although participants await fresh drivers. Ahead, the ECB is unlikely to sway metals much, although US PPI could have an impact, particularly on precious metals. Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 4,388-4,435/oz range after finding support near yesterday’s USD 4,434/oz high. Note that yesterday, the bullion found support at its 100 DMA (today at 4,340/oz). 3M LME copper trades around record highs in a current USD 14,742.65- 14,870.78/t range.
• In terms of geopolitics, US President Trump said he thinks war with Iran will end immediately after the election and that they will win the war with Iran, while Iran said they are ready for a more intense war if required. Several explosions were heard yesterday in Iran's Qeshm and Sirik, while an oil tanker was reportedly being targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, mediator Pakistan warned Iran to restrain Yemen’s Houthi militants after a rise in attacks on Saudi Arabia, while Houthis attacked Saudi cities with ballistic missiles and drones, and Saudi Arabia reportedly conducted airstrikes in Yemen. Pakistan's Foreign Minister said that there are no discussions right now regarding plans to act under the Makkah Defence Agreement, but when the time comes, they will act on the agreement.
• US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -1.9mln (exp. -1.8mln), Distillate +2.0mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.3mln.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said the current refining capacity is a bigger problem than crude oil supply.
• IEA's Birol said their new report shows global coal demand is now set to rise by 1.2% in 2026.
• Russia's Ryazan oil refinery (~350k BPD) has been idle since a September 6 drone attack, according to sources.
• Oman OSP for November-loading crude set at USD 119.30/bbl (prev. USD 87.84/bbl in October).
• Czech PM Babis said the EU should halt the ETS1 carbon allowances system and delay ETS2 due to the higher energy prices.

Trade/Tariffs

• US trade official said China is ramping up their purchases and is on track to fulfil farm purchases ahead of Chinese President Xi's Washington visit, according to SCMP. It was separately reported that China bought 1mln tons of US soybeans ahead of Xi's visit to the US, according to sources.
• The South Korean government is considering artificial intelligence investments as part of its trade agreement with the Trump administration, WSJ reported, with a deal that could potentially be worth in excess of USD 100bln.
• China's MOFCOM said China and the US are in consultations on arrangement for a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cut framework, Xinhua reported.
• China is extending the anti-dumping probe into pecans from both Mexico and the US.

Central Banks

• BoJ Board Member Masu said one‑ to two‑year real interest rates remain negative and that they need to keep the price trend from going above 2%, while he added that the BoJ is expected to continue raising interest rates given current accommodative financial conditions. Masu said Japan is no longer in deflation, so real interest rates should be moved out of negative territory as soon as possible, and noted that the policy rate is approaching the estimated neutral-rate range, so prices, employment and financial conditions must be monitored carefully. Furthermore, he said with Japan’s financial conditions still accommodative, the BoJ could be forced to raise rates rapidly if inflation accelerates, and that the BoJ must raise rates further and move its policy rate within the estimated neutral-rate range so it can conduct policy flexibly.
• In further comments, BoJ's Masu said underlying inflation is gradually approaching 2%, but currently does not expect it to rise substantially above that level. When asked about a 50bps hike, Masu said the bank should proceed cautiously with hikes. On the Yen, Masu stated that they will closely assess the yen’s appreciation and rising crude oil and global food prices at next week’s policy meeting. Masu added that they have emergency market operations as a tool, but that is only saved for exceptional moves in JGB markets.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump said they will win the war with Iran and that oil prices will go down as soon as they win, while he suggested calling the Hormuz Strait the Trump Strait. Trump said 'may have to give them a shot at Pickaxe Mountain' and advised Iran not to get cute as the US would have to hit them very hard.
• Top White House advisers have raised privately with US President Trump the prospect that the Iran conflict could last through the remainder of his term, according to WSJ.
• CBS reporter Jennifer Jacobs noted that multiple US military aircraft suffered damage in strikes the prior night on the Salti Air Base in Jordan.
• Several explosions were heard in Iran's Qeshm and Sirik, with the sounds reportedly originating from the sea, according to Fars News Agency. Furthermore, IRNA cited official sources that stated areas in Sirik were hit by projectiles, although SNN reported that no points in Sirik have been targeted.
• Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesperson said the Makkah defence agreement is a defensive alliance focused on deterrence, with expansion not currently planned until its foundations are solidified. The Ministry added that there are no discussions right now regarding plans to act under the Makkah Defence Agreement but that when the time comes, they will act on the agreement.
• An Iranian lawmaker said Iran can take "special measures" in response to the IAEA's resolution and may consider action.

Geopolitics: Russia

• Russia's Defence Ministry said they struck Ukraine's Black Sea port of Chornomorsk and two ships near Odessa.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces struck eight infrastructure targets supporting Russian military operations over the past 24 hours, including an oil refinery in Russia’s Yamalo-Nenets region and a seaport in Dagestan.
• Ukraine's Air Force said attack drones targeted Zaporozhzhia and that drone groups were headed to Dnipro and Kamienske.
• Poland’s Operational Command said military aviation remains active and ground-based air defense and radar systems are on alert due to potential threats to Polish airspace from Russian drone activity in western Ukraine.
• NATO allies have reportedly caught Russian submarines training to debut a secret weapon which could disable critical undersea cables, without leaving evidence, Reuters reported.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Sep 5 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 205k, prior 206k
• 8:30 am: Aug 29 Continuing Claims, est. 1780k, prior 1779k
• 8:30 am: Aug PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0%
• 8:30 am: Aug PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Aug PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 5.3%, prior 4.7%
• 8:30 am: Aug PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.6%, prior 4.2%
• 10:00 am: Aug Existing Home Sales, est. 3.98m, prior 4.06m
• 10:00 am: Jul F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.3%, prior 1.3%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets had another eventful session yesterday, with stagflation fears mounting after Brent crude oil moved above $100/bbl for the first time since July. That was primarily driven by the latest strikes between the US and Iran, and the moves saw investors price in faster rate hikes and pushed bond yields to multi-year highs. On top of that, Treasuries saw further declines after the US Treasury Department confirmed they were buying back up to $6bn of longer-dated Treasuries, which fell short of some estimates. So by the close, that meant the 10yr Treasury yield (+5.2bps) hit a post-2023 high of 4.84%, whilst the 10yr bund yield (+7.6bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.44%. And in turn, that pressured risk assets as well, with the STOXX 600 (-1.41%) posting its worst day in the last two months, whilst the S&P 500 (-0.48%) fell for a third day running. So even though we’re just over a week into September, it’s already living up to its reputation as one of the toughest months of the year for markets.  

As in recent days, the main catalyst for the oil move was the latest US-Iran strikes. So on Tuesday evening, we heard that the US had destroyed five Iranian tankers. And then as we went to press yesterday morning, Iran said they’d targeted 2 US vessels and 8 oil tankers in the Persian Gulf in retaliation. For investors, that news raised fears about a further escalation, and Bloomberg also reported that a senior Iranian official said Iran was ready for a more intense war if the US continued its attacks. So that raised doubts that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon, and there was a separate WSJ report overnight that White House advisers had privately raised the prospect with President Trump that the war could continue for the remainder of his term. So Brent crude (+3.36%) jumped to $101.21/bbl by the close, its highest level since May. And investors also moved to price in a more protracted period of high oil prices, with the 6-month Brent future (+1.55%) rising to its highest since early June, at $86.09/bbl.  

Whilst Brent crude rising above $100/bbl took up the main headlines, the inflation concerns were exacerbated by the latest moves in natural gas prices. In particular, European natural gas futures (+4.49%) closed at their highest level since 2022, at €79.25/MWh, and they even traded above €80/MWh at one point. That was partly driven by the US-Iran news, but prices took a further leg higher after the Governor of Russia’s Yamalo-Nenets autonomous district reported that there was a fire at an industrial site. That region is a major hub for Russian gas, and Ukraine said later that its drones had struck two gas condensate plants there. So the reports added to concerns about global gas supplies in the months ahead, particularly with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.

With oil and gas prices still rising, that led to mounting speculation about faster rate hikes from central banks. So in the US, futures raised the probability of a September hike next week from 61% on Tuesday to 63% this morning. In part, that’s down to the inflationary impulse from energy, but the extent of the moves has also led to concerns about second-round effects, whereby inflation could broaden out away from energy. Meanwhile in Europe, investors also priced in a more hawkish path for the ECB, with an additional +9.0bps of hikes priced in by the June 2027 meeting, meaning that 86bps of further hikes are now priced by then. So that feeds into the concern we wrote about on Monday (link here), where several asset classes are vulnerable to the impact of building inflationary pressures and a faster tightening cycle from central banks.  

Those commodity moves put upward pressure on bond yields, but the rise then accelerated after the US Treasury Department announced they’d be purchasing up to $6bn of longer-dated Treasuries in their initial buyback operation. As a reminder, the Treasury delivered a surprise announcement in mid-August that they’d “at least double” the size of these operations, having previously planned to buy back $2bn before. But we didn’t know exactly how big that would end up being, so there was some uncertainty about how the market would react. But ultimately, the $6bn announcement saw yields rise across the curve, having fallen short of some estimates beforehand. So the 2yr yield (+3.7bps) ended the session at 4.43%, its highest since July 2024, and the 10yr yield (+5.2bps) moved up to 4.84%, the highest since October 2023. Meanwhile, the 30yr yield (+4.3bps) was up to 5.29%, still slightly beneath its recent closing peak of 5.31% on August 17.  

Over in Europe, there were even bigger moves in yields, given the continent’s greater exposure to higher energy prices. As a result, yields hit new multi-year highs across countries and maturities. For instance, the 2yr German yield (+7.2bps) rose to 3.06%, its highest since June 2024, whilst the 10yr bund yield (+7.6bps) hit another post-2011 high of 3.44%. Indeed, it now isn’t far away from the 2011 Euro Crisis peak of 3.49%, and if that’s exceeded, it would take yields up to levels not seen since 2009. Meanwhile in France, the 10yr OAT yield (+10.9bps) surged to a post-2008 high of 4.34%, and Italy’s 10yr BTP yield (+11.0bps) hit a post-2023 high of 4.29%. Here in the UK, there were fresh records too, with the 10yr yield (+8.9bps) at a post-2007 high of 5.26%, whilst the 30yr yield (+6.8bps) hit a post-1998 high of 5.87%.  

Looking forward, European rates will stay in the spotlight today, as we have the ECB’s latest policy decision at 13:15 London time. For the decision, they’re widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike today, taking their deposit rate up to 2.5%. So that would be the second rate hike of this cycle, following on from the initial hike back in June. But given that a rate hike is already priced in today, the focus will instead be on the path forward, including their latest economic forecasts. Our European economists think that there’ll be small upward revisions to the GDP projections for 2026 and 2027, along with higher headline inflation for 2027 and 2028. Otherwise, their view is that the ECB won’t give formal guidance today, and will instead repeat the “data dependent, meeting by meeting, no precommitment” mantra. For more details, see their full preview here.  

Ahead of all that, equities had a rough session yesterday, as the combination of geopolitical risk, higher energy prices and higher yields all weighed on the major indices. So in the US, that meant the S&P 500 (-0.48%) fell for a third day running. The breadth of the moves was even more negative, as the S&P saw 404 decliners, the most since June. Meanwhile, energy (+1.09%) was the only sector in the index to register an advance, up to a record high. Meanwhile in Europe, there were even bigger declines given the continent’s greater energy exposure, with the STOXX 600 (-1.41%) experiencing its worst session in two months, alongside bigger losses for the DAX (-1.66%) and the CAC 40 (-1.94%).  

Overnight, that weakness has continued in Asian markets, with further rises in bond yields. That includes Australia’s 10yr yield (+6.6bps), which is up to a post-2011 high of 5.27%, whilst Japan’s 10yr yield (+5.4bps) is up to 2.93%. Meanwhile for equities, the major indices have lost ground across the region, with the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.43%) and the Hang Seng (-1.29%) posting the biggest declines, alongside smaller falls for the Nikkei (-0.54%), the CSI 300 (-0.42%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.35%) and the KOSPI (-0.36%). Nevertheless, there have been signs of stabilisation overnight, with S&P 500 futures (+0.16%) pointing to a modest recovery after three consecutive declines for the index.  Finally, we also heard from the BoJ’s Masu overnight, who said that they’d “continue to raise the policy interest rate”, and that “What is most vital from now on is to ensure that the underlying inflation rate does not significantly exceed 2%.” So that cemented market expectations that the Bank of Japan would deliver another hike at their meeting next week.  

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision, along with President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, US data releases include PPI inflation for August, the weekly initial jobless claims, and existing home sales for August.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 08:27

Hike Or Hold? Debating The Coming Fed Decision

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via Real Investment Advice,

Heading into the September 16 FOMC meeting, the debate over whether the Fed should raise rates or hold is heated. To help you appreciate the range of views, we present this article as a courtroom exercise. We will let the prosecution make its case for a rate hike, and the defense make its case for a hold. We will render our verdict after both sides present their cases.

To set the stage, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 60% chance of a September rate hike, with further hikes possible at subsequent meetings. The graph below shows the market is pricing in a 36% chance of two rate hikes by mid-March 2027, with roughly equal 25% chances of three hikes or only one.

The Prosecution's Case: Rate Hike

With the strong August BLS employment data, the case for a hike now has three legs.

The first is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address on August 28. His policy-related comments were direct: he wants to restore credibility to his pledge to get inflation back to 2% in short order. Below are comments we wrote in Warsh Makes A Hawkish Pivot:

Warsh was blunt in his assessment of inflation. He signaled the Fed may not be done fighting inflation, saying financial conditions didn't look restrictive enough to him and that recent benign inflation readings hadn't convinced him the trend was improving meaningfully. Per Warsh's speech:

"And while this summer's PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved."

"Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That's our job... our mandate... and our charge to keep."

In his words, Warsh says the Fed has "work to do."

The second leg is the most recent BLS jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls jumped 162,000 in August, more than triple the 50,000 number Wall Street expected. Furthermore, the prior negative 23,000 number was revised upward to a positive 21,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at a historical low of 4.1%.

For the prosecution, that exhibit fits well with New York Fed President John Williams's claim that rising bond yields simply "reflect the strength of the economy." Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a more dovish member, seems to be coming around to the idea of rate hikes, telling reporters, "I would support an increase if it becomes necessary to bring inflation down. It may not."

Beth Hammack- The Lead Prosector

Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Fed, has been the most consistently hawkish voice on the committee and presents the third leg- the persistence of high inflation. She dissented at the last FOMC meeting in favor of a hike, arguing that the Fed likely needs a sequence of rate increases rather than a single move, and has recently said that "now is the time to act."

Hammack doesn't seem concerned that higher interest rates will impede the economy. To wit,

One 25 basis point move probably doesn't do a whole lot for the economy

Her overarching reasoning is that current rates aren't restrictive; accordingly, they won't bring inflation back to 2%.

I just don't see it coming back on its own

Furthermore, she believes delaying rate hikes only makes the job harder later and that inflation is more broad-based than just oil.

Regarding the labor market, she has pushed back on weak-jobs narratives, saying she's "still not seeing a problem" and pointing to unemployment close to full employment.

The labor market is right around my level of maximum employment.

Her employment view helps explain why she's comfortable prioritizing fighting inflation over the health of the labor market. The most recent employment data will strengthen her opinion.

The Defense's Case: Hold Rates Steady

The defense will not put much faith in the recent employment report. Instead, it will focus on the recent string of weak employment data and, importantly, the large revisions that have turned good job reports into bad ones. That skepticism over jobs data is warranted, as shown in the chart below.

Twice a year, BLS benchmarks and revises the payroll survey against actual unemployment-insurance tax records. The preliminary 2025 benchmark knocked 911,000 jobs off the year ended March 2025, cutting average monthly growth in half from a reported 147,000 to 71,000. When it was finalized in January, calendar-year 2025 growth got cut again, from a reported 584,000 down to just 181,000. The year before that, the preliminary 2024 benchmark had already cut 818,000 jobs from the year ended March 2024.

More recently, April's initial 179,000 gain is now 148,000, and May's initial 172,000 gain is now just 63,000. July was reported as an outright loss of 23,000 jobs but has since been revised up to a positive 21,000. An economic data series that has been grossly overstated in two straight annual benchmarks and then turned a reported loss into a gain within a month is data that we must be dubious of. Last week's gain of 162,000 jobs has not yet been revised.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin's read on the underlying labor market is as follows: "It's not loose, it's not tight, it's sort of been a weak balance," he said, describing employers who are neither firing employees aggressively nor expanding their payrolls.

Inflation And Other Risks

On inflation, the defense will note that the July CPI report was benign. Headline CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month, and core CPI rose 0.2%, but year-over-year rates of 3.4% headline and 2.5% core are above the Fed's 2% target. The recent trend, not the dated annual comparison, is what should matter most for a forward-looking rate decision, and the monthly trend is cooling.

It's worth adding that the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE, which ignores the most volatile components of PCE, sits at 2.28%, close to the Fed's 2% target. At his Senate confirmation, Warsh cited the trimmed mean as a valuable inflation gauge. Furthermore, five-year inflation expectations, another tool many Fed members rely on, sit at 2.4%, slightly below where they were before the Iranian conflict.

The defense's strongest proponent may be Governor Waller, who argues against rate hikes. He believes that the forces pushing yields higher are largely outside the Fed's price stability and full employment mandate. The forces include deficits, dollar concerns, AI-related capital needs, and the oil shock tied to shipping disruptions rather than domestic demand. Hiking to fight yield narratives risks a policy error.

The table below shows the fundamentals and narratives impacting the Fed's decision.

The Evidence

To assess both sides, let's review recent trends in the Fed's two mandates: employment and prices.

Labor Markets

While the most recent labor data from the BLS was strong, we are highly skeptical, as negative revisions have plagued BLS data. Furthermore, recent ADP and JOLTS data offer little confirmation of a sharp pickup in hiring. The graph below showing the 3-month moving average of BLS and ADP highlights that 60k to 70k jobs are being added monthly, which is well below the 150k to 250k range preceding the pandemic. The labor force has grown by 8 million people since 2018, making recent data even worse in comparison.

To better assess the labor market and its recent trend, we created a model using the following six factors:

• BLS household employment - survey of individuals
• BLS establishment employment - business survey and payroll records
• BLS labor participation rate
• ADP private payrolls
• Real wage growth
• JOLTS hires index

Our model expresses each of the six factors as a z-score against its own history since January 2022. This model doesn't provide a historical reading on employment but shows that the weakening trend of the last few years has worsened over the last six months.

Inflation

The graph below shows that year-over-year Core CPI sits near 2.5%, almost exactly where it stood before the Iranian conflict started. Moreover, the slow trend toward 2% still appears intact. That said, headline CPI remains elevated at 3.4%.

As we did with labor, we created an inflation trend model. This four-factor model compares the most recent three months of inflation data to the prior three months to detect trends.

Per the model shown below, inflation has been "anchored" since January 2023, albeit with a short spike coinciding with the Iranian conflict. Since then, the gauge has receded back toward 2025 levels and is now edging into the "cooling" zone. Like the employment gauge, all factors have a negative z-score, indicating the recent trend is softening.

Summary: Our Verdict

We are sympathetic to both sides. The prosecutor is 100% correct that we need to get inflation back to 2% as soon as possible. It has been above target for too long, and the Fed risks consumer and corporate spending behaviors changing in a pro-inflationary way. The debate at the Fed seems to come down to whether they let that occur naturally or force the issue.

The prosecuting side wants to raise rates to force inflation lower. The defense wants to wait, claiming the disinflationary trends that existed before the Iranian conflict are reasserting themselves and that higher rates could worsen an already weak labor market.

Some Fed members, including Warsh, claim that the recent spike in yields across the yield curve makes borrowing more restrictive for consumers and corporations, effectively doing the job for them.

We come down on the side of the defense, though the August employment number, assuming it holds up through revisions and similar strength persists, does weaken our case. Inflation should be hotly debated as it is. We are comfortable with recent trends and somewhat comfortable that, assuming oil prices don't spike, price trends continue lower.

The credibility argument supporting a rate hike concerns us most. The idea is that the Fed needs to raise rates to address rising bond yields and reassert "credibility," rather than respond to a confirmed breakdown in either of the Fed's dual mandates.

Yields have risen largely because of an oil-driven supply shock and concerns about swelling fiscal deficits. The Fed's short-term policy rate is poorly suited to address them.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 07:45

HSBC Sees "Upside Risks" From "Super Squeeze" In Commodities

London copper futures are trading north of $14,700 a ton, Brent crude futures have climbed above $101 a barrel, US diesel crack spreads are back in triple-digit territory, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index is at a 14-year high. The energy shock has broadened into a rally across the commodity complex, from energy to agricultural products to metals and other critical materials, with a growing number of Wall Street research desks identifying tightening physical supplies as a key driver.

HSBC chief economist for global commodities Paul Bloxham is the latest to warn that a "super-squeeze" in commodity markets continues to produce outsized gains.

"The 'super-squeeze' has continued to support elevated commodity prices … as the Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars and El Niño disrupt supplies … and AI and electrification drive demand," Bloxham wrote at the start of the note. "Prices are expected to remain elevated, and there are upside risks."

To illustrate the broad-based surge in commodity prices, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is now at levels last seen in 2012, marking a 14-year high...

... while the Quantix Commodity Index has hit a new record high.

Bloxham told clients to focus on these ten themes:

1) A'super-squeeze' continues …

Six months after the Middle East conflict began, it is still a key driver of commodity prices. Commodity prices are well above the pre-Iran war levels, despite being below the peaks reached early in the conflict. The worst-case possibilities have, so far, been avoided, largely because of rapid drawdown of inventories, but the global commodity price index is up 18% YTD and 24% y-o-y in August. The team's base case sees an average rise of 22% in 2026 (16% prior) and flat in 2027 (-7% prior), leaving our 2027 forecast 14% higher than previously expected. 

We see risks to these forecasts being to the upside as the 'super-squeeze' continues.

2) … with disruption from the Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars …

The Middle East conflict remains the key risk. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with significant uncertainties about when it will open and on what terms. A cycle of escalation and de-escalation of the conflict has been repeated many times in recent months, driving volatility. The Middle East conflict has also broadened, with attacks by the Houthis on Saudi ships in the Red Sea disrupting traffic though the Bab el-Mandeb Strait too. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine war, which is now in its fifth year, has been a more acutely disruptive force recently, including for supplies of grains and refined oil products, like diesel.

3) … and a strong El Niño weather event

Extreme weather is another upside risk to prices. A strong El Niño has arrived, with the Southern Oscillation Index already at extremes not reached in over two decades. This is a particular risk for agricultural supply, where the Middle East conflict has already disrupted fertiliser and diesel supplies and the Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted shipping. A recent Northern Hemisphere heatwave has also shifted patterns in energy consumption with implications for stocks of key energy commodities. El Niño is also affecting manufacturing supply chains, and thereby impacting commodity markets. 

4) Inventory rundown in focus, particularly for oil and gas

High inventories and rapid drawdown of these inventories - particularly of oil and gas - has been a key factor helping to, so far, balance markets in the face of the 'super-squeeze'. In the oil market, the US has been exporting more - as it runs down its strategic reserves - and China has been importing much less - as it too runs down reserves. However, the longer the disruptions continue, the greater the upside risk to prices, as stocks fall to levels that start to approach 'tank bottom'. For gas, European inventories are well below target, reflecting a very hot summer, with lower stocks increasing the risk of high prices in the coming winter.

5) More than just oil - sulphur, diesel and jet fuel disrupted too

The supply disruptions, particularly due to the Middle East conflict, extend well beyond oil and gas. In particular, there have been significant disruptions to supplies of sulphur, fertiliser, aluminium and helium -- as well as a range of refined oil byproducts, such as jet fuel, naphtha and diesel. The Russia-Ukraine war has more acutely affected supplies of products such as diesel, as the conflict has led to recent significant damage to refining capacity.

6) Metals and energy prices supported by AI and electrification

Most base metal prices have risen recently, as the boom in AI infrastructure investment and the energy transition have supported electrification demand. Copper prices have increased to all-time highs, partly reflecting strong demand, but also limited investment in new mines constraining supply and supply disruptions. For aluminium, although the Middle East conflict has been disruptive, China dominates global supply and some cargoes have cleared the Strait of Hormuz, containing the upside to prices. Lithium prices have also risen strongly over the past year, up 130%, but as with previous cycles, this has triggered more supply, particularly from Zimbabwe and Australia, which could curb the price upside.

7) China's slowdown weighs on bulk commodities

Despite good support for base metals from the AI and electrification booms, falling fixed asset investment in China, particularly the ongoing property correction, which is now in its fifth year, has weighed on demand for iron ore, coking coal and steel. That being said, this year China's authorities announced more infrastructure investment plans, worth around RMB7 trillion, as part of the 'Six Networks' initiative, which should support demand for bulk commodities and their prices. For iron ore, on the supply side, there have been large changes to pricing as the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) centralised Chinese buying and the ramp-up in production from the Simandou mine in Guinea adds in more supply.

8) Grains and 'finer foods' prices rise, as supply squeezed

Agricultural markets have been heavily affected by the disruptive impacts of the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars, particularly to supplies of fertilisers and diesel. The El Niño event, Northern hemisphere heatwave and record high ocean temperatures (a positive Indian dipole) are all risks to the outlook for supplies. An El Niño event creates more volatility in agricultural prices, by disrupting supply. Winners are typically North and South America, with much of Asia typically worse off, with higher drought risk in Australia and Indonesia, a weaker monsoon in India and hotter and drier conditions in South-East Asia. Grains prices have been rising recently, led by wheat, and 'finer foods' prices are rising too - particularly cocoa and coffee.

9) Precious metal prices are high and we see more upside

After a significant rise in precious metals prices through 2025 - gold prices more than doubled to their peak in January 2026 - prices have edged lower across the precious metals complex year-to-date in 2026. A key driver has been a rise in interest rates - particularly at the long-end of yield curves - which has encouraged investors to seek yield and thus move away from precious metals. That being said, with geopolitical risk still high, central bank demand still positive, and more uncertainty in bond markets, precious metals prices are well supported. Platinum and palladium prices may also be supported by constrained mine supply.

10) COCCLES suggests a 'super-bull' phase underway

Finally, HSBC's purely statistical model, COCCLES, which looks for patterns in commodity prices, shows that the market is convincingly in a 'super-bull' phase of the cycle.

This model is not structural, but it does tend to be the case that once a super-bull phase begins, it tends to persist much longer than the other phases do. 

This model result lends statistical support to the view that commodity prices will remain elevated. 

With HSBC's commodity-cycle model firmly signaling a "super-bull" phase, the big question for traders now is how long physical scarcity themes and other supply constraints can collide with demand to sustain the rally. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 06:55

US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Clears Vienna Hurdle As Congress Review Continues

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

• IAEA chief Rafael Grossi says Saudi Arabia won't sign the Additional Protocol but will accept oversight powers over enrichment, conversion and reprocessing that closely mirror it.

• The underlying US-Saudi 123 agreement, signed July 22, opens a path to domestic uranium enrichment after a two-year study, a break from the UAE's enrichment-free 'gold standard.'

• Congress is 90 days into reviewing the deal, with Democrats and nonproliferation groups pushing back and two side letters still classified.

A planned nuclear cooperation deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia won't include the toughest inspection regime the U.N.'s atomic watchdog has to offer, but it's going to come close on the activities that matter most.

That's the picture International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi laid out Monday in Vienna, speaking to reporters during the agency's September Board of Governors meeting. Riyadh isn't signing the IAEA's Additional Protocol, the tool that lets inspectors show up unannounced at sites a country hasn't even declared. But Grossi said Saudi Arabia is preparing to grant the agency verification and monitoring authority over its most sensitive nuclear activities, uranium enrichment, the conversion step that precedes it, and reprocessing, that functions almost the same way.

"These are sensitive activities, as we all know," Grossi told reporters. The new powers being built into the bilateral safeguards agreement, he said, will be "very, very similar" to what the Additional Protocol provides, though he declined to spell out specifics. Once finished, that safeguards agreement still has to go before the IAEA's own 35-member Board of Governors for sign-off.

A Deal Years In The Making

The framework goes back to a 123 agreement that Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman signed on July 22, capping more than a decade of on-and-off talks that repeatedly stalled over Riyadh's refusal to give up enrichment as a condition of U.S. cooperation. The pact, named for the section of the Atomic Energy Act that governs U.S. nuclear exports, opens the door for American firms to build reactors in the kingdom and hands Riyadh something it has wanted for years: a real shot at enriching its own uranium.

Under the terms reported at signing, Washington and Riyadh have two years to study whether domestic enrichment makes commercial sense. Any enrichment plant built afterward would go up under a "black box" model, run by U.S. companies inside Saudi Arabia so the underlying technology never actually changes hands. It's a sharp departure from Washington's 2009 pact with the United Arab Emirates, the deal nonproliferation advocates still call the gold standard, under which Abu Dhabi permanently gave up enrichment and reprocessing altogether.

Congress Gets Its Say

The administration sent the agreement to Congress in late August, starting a 90-day review clock under the Atomic Energy Act. Lawmakers can let it take effect by doing nothing, or pass a joint resolution of disapproval to kill it, though that would need to survive a presidential veto. Two side letters attached to the deal remain classified, according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which also notes that of the 51 countries with active 123 agreements, only Argentina and Brazil currently lack the Additional Protocol. Saudi Arabia would be the third.

Congressional Democrats have pushed back hard, joined by some Republicans, arguing the deal opens the door to a wider enrichment race across the Middle East. The White House, meanwhile, has tied the agreement to Saudi Arabia eventually joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel, a step Riyadh has so far declined to take without progress toward Palestinian statehood.

The Backdrop

For Riyadh, the deal is also part of a broader push under Vision 2030 to build out nuclear power alongside renewables and diversify an economy still tied to oil exports, with U.S. firms like Westinghouse positioned to compete for reactor contracts worth billions. The talks are unfolding against last year's war between Israel and Iran, which has hardened Gulf calculations around nuclear deterrence. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said publicly the kingdom would pursue a weapon of its own if Iran ever built one. Iran, for its part, operated under the Additional Protocol from 2016 to 2021 under the nuclear deal that collapsed after the U.S. withdrew in 2018, a history nonproliferation groups keep pointing to as they push for tougher terms on Riyadh.

For now, the deal sits in a kind of holding pattern. Congress's review runs deep into the fall. The bilateral safeguards text is still being finalized in Vienna. And whether the arrangement Grossi described Monday ends up satisfying skeptics on Capitol Hill, or just gives them a new set of details to pick apart, is still an open question.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 06:30

Migrants Responsible For 47% Of All Violent Crime In German State Of Bavaria

Via Remix News,

Non-German suspects account for nearly half of all violent crime in the German state of Bavaria, with the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party now calling for remigration for all criminal migrant suspects. The Interior Ministry data was released in response to a request from AfD state parliament member Martin Böhm. It revealed that police recorded 20,367 suspects in violent offenses in 2025 and about 47 percent did not have German citizenship.

Remarkably, foreigners are responsible for this massive amount of serious crime despite making up only 15.5 percent of Bavaria's population.

Syrians were the largest group of non-German suspects, at 1,284, followed by Turks with 799, Ukrainians with 797, Afghans with 784, Romanians with 687, Iraqis with 428, Bulgarians with 350, Poles with 328, Kosovars with 319, and Italians with 250.

A different ranking appears when the figures are adjusted for population. The suspect burden figure, or TVBZ, measures how many suspects police identified per 100,000 people in a group over one year.

Ukrainians had the highest TVBZ, at 555. Turks followed at 445 and Romanians at 435. The figure for German citizens was 106. That means Ukrainians, for instance, are more than five times more likely to commit a violent crime than Germans.

The government did not calculate a TVBZ for other nationalities because each had fewer than 100,000 residents.

"For smaller population groups, the crime rate would have to be mathematically extrapolated to 100,000 people," the state government wrote.

"However, since the relationship between population size and crime burden is not strictly linear, an error would occur in the TVBZ calculation, which is greater the smaller the population group. For this reason, the TVBZ are only calculated for non-German citizens who have a population share of over 100,000 people."

When it comes to murder and manslaughter, there were 411 suspects in Bavaria and 177 were non-Germans, equaling 43.1 percent of all murder and manslaughter suspects. The TVBZ for Germans was 87, while Turks had a TVBZ of 478 and Ukrainians with a TVBZ of 499.

In cases of rape, sexual assault and sexual assault in particularly serious cases, including those resulting in death, police registered 1,288 suspects in Bavaria. Of those, 551 were foreigners, equaling 42.8 percent.

It must also be noted that for all German suspects counted in this data, the Interior Ministry does not release if they have a foreign background.

Böhm said the figures show that violent crime in Bavaria is an imported problem to a "far too high" extent.

"No amount of sugarcoating or trivialization will help. The numbers speak for themselves," he told Junge Freiheit, which exclusively received the figures.

"The AfD therefore demands: decisive action by the judiciary, an end to mass naturalizations and rigorous remigration of foreign violent criminals," Böhm said.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 05:00

America's Next Military Contractors Could Be Hackers

Washington may soon outsource part of its cyberwarfare operations to private companies, according to a new report from Bloomberg. 

Language tucked into the Senate’s 2027 defense bill would create a pilot program allowing the Pentagon to hire outside cybersecurity firms to penetrate computer networks chosen by the US military. Contractors would operate under US Cyber Command and Pentagon supervision.

Bloomberg writes that the authority would initially be relatively narrow. Private operators could establish access to targeted networks, but the Senate language stops short of authorizing them to damage, disable or destroy those systems.

Still, it would represent a significant expansion of private industry’s role in US offensive cyber operations. The administration has already moved in this direction, launching a separate initiative that permits American companies to pursue certain foreign cybercriminal groups under federal oversight.

Advocates say outsourcing some of the work could provide badly needed manpower and expertise as Cyber Command faces growing demands and staffing pressures. Opponents argue that introducing profit-driven companies into cyberwarfare could create new problems, including retaliation, accidental escalation and murky accountability.

If enacted, the experiment would start in 2027 and continue through 2030, with the Pentagon required to regularly disclose information about contractors, missions and targets to Congress.

For now, however, it remains only a Senate proposal. The House defense bill contains no equivalent measure, meaning the provision could still be changed or removed before reaching the president.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 04:15

Zelensky's Plane 'Almost Hit' By Drone After Take-Off From Moldova

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store has said that the Ukrainian government plane carrying President President Volodymyr Zelensky nearly struck an unidentified drone on Wednesday.

Zelensky is in Oslo where he held talks with Store, chiefly focused on Norwegian assistance in the fight against Russia, and specifically about advancing a European anti-ballistic system. Zelensky also attended King Harald V of Norway's funeral, for which heads of state from around the world were present.

President Of Ukraine/Flickr

But the Norwegian PM describes that immediately after departing Eastern Europe, Zelensky's "flight was almost hit by a drone when it was taking off from Moldova."

He was further quoted in Norwegian public broadcaster NRK on Wednesday as saying, "That is the reality he lives in" - in reference to the Ukrainian leader.

The report comes amid a surge of recent suspected 'Russian drone threat' incidents, including at airports in Germany and elsewhere in Europe. 

Ukrainian national media alleges some further details as follows:

A suspected Russian Shahed-type drone that violated Moldovan and Romanian airspace on Sept. 8 nearly hit President Volodymyr Zelensky's plane as it was departing from Moldova, a source told the Kyiv Independent on Sept. 9.

Zelensky was traveling to Norway to meet Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store ahead of the funeral of King Harald V at the time of the incident. The president's plane took off from Moldova, where the drone incursion occurred.

Moldova's Defense Ministry reported on Sept. 8 that a Shahed-type drone had invaded the country's airspace at around 4:20 p.m. local time. It was monitored by the Moldovan military until the drone crossed into Romanian airspace at around 4:37 p.m.

The Associated Press and CBS have since picked up the story, not offering anything further in terms of details.

These reports additionally say that NATO jets were scrambled as a precaution, but no other details have emerged in terms of where the UAV ended up, or drone recovery. There's as yet no confirmation that it was sent by Russia, or the true nature or extent of the threat.

🚨 NEWS: Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre says a drone nearly hit Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's plane as he was departing for Oslo for King Harald's funeral pic.twitter.com/GKYohp2BWO

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) September 9, 2026

Pending more possible details, story seems vague and the Norwegian prime minister seemed to reference it almost in passing. Zelensky has of late been pressing for more urgent anti-air munitions, as Russia targets cities - including the capital - with more and more ballistic missiles and drones.

In this context, he has presented his and Ukraine's plight as one of existential survival, also as peace talks have remained elusive amid constant escalation.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 02:45

After Huge Election Defeat, Top CDU Politician Demands First Steps Towards AfD Ban

Via Remix News,

After a historic democratic victory for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, a top Christian Democrat (CDU) politician, Hendrik Wüst, is now calling for the first concrete steps towards a possible ban of the AfD party.

"I said something today, but I don't think any CDU member has said it publicly yet: That I am in favor of appointing this working group, which will then do this work," said North Rhine-Westphalia's Minister-President Wüst.

Wüst has already repeatedly referred to the AfD as a "Nazi party." North Rhine-Westphalia itself faces a state election in April 2027.

Wüst made the remarks on Monday evening in Berlin to a mostly left-leaning audience during a talk hosted by "transformation researcher" Maja Göpel. He presented this working group as a prerequisite before any application to Germany's top court, the Federal Constitutional Court, for an outright ban of the AfD.

While the AfD nearly obtained an absolute majority with 43.8 percent in the Saxony-Anhalt election, Wüst's own party saw a historic crash, with its support cut in half to 17.2 percent. The results have reportedly sent CDU leadership, along with Chancellor Friedrich Merz, into a potential existential crisis.

Wüst apparently does not like that voters are moving away from his party and now wants this working group to examine the AfD in preparation for a potential ban, but he says other outcomes are possible besides a ban.

Beyond his position as minister-president, there is also speculation that Wüst himself is a strong front-runner to replace Merz should he step down. Merz himself has rejected a ban of the AfD, saying that it "smacks too much of the elimination of political rivals."

Besides the Bundestag and the federal government, the Bundesrat, of which Wüst is a member as head of a state government, can also launch such proceedings. However, the final decision on a ban is ultimately made by the Constitutional Court.

Wüst framed the outcome of that review as a constitutional duty. If the working group's examination reveals that the AfD could be banned, that would be a "command to protect this constitution."

As reported by Die Welt, Wüst added:

"If, after an examination, the following is on the table: This party can be banned, then this ban procedure must be initiated. For me, that's relatively clear. But step by step."

Earlier the same day, at a campaign event in Berlin, he had already warned against underestimating the AfD after its result in Saxony-Anhalt.

"We must not be naive and believe that the AfD would somehow change course. They have a plan with this country, and it's not a good plan," he said.

Wüst was careful to say that it is not a foregone conclusion that such a working group would recommend a ban.

Wüst said the working group should "not operate with the politically predetermined goal" but rather "examine this party and the possible legal consequences."

"That could be a ban, that could also be something else," said the CDU politician.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 02:00

The 5 Places In America You Want To Be When Society Begins To Collapse

Authored by John Walter via Substack,

There is a moment before the fall. You will miss it. Everyone does.

The shelves still hold food. The lights still work. The news still talks about politics, sports, the usual noise. But somewhere in the background, something has shifted. The supply chain that moved your breakfast cereal every Tuesday for twenty years now operates on thinner margins than the quarterly reports acknowledge. The water treatment plant built in 1967 still runs, but the replacement parts that once took three days to arrive now take eighteen months, if they arrive at all. The pension checks clear, but the funds backing them have been borrowing from themselves since 2008, and the actuarial projections no longer align with the demographic reality. They just haven't stopped clearing yet.

This is not collapse. This is the pre-collapse.

The period when preparation remains possible, when geography can still be chosen, when the window sits open but narrowing.

Most Americans live in places that will not survive prolonged systems failure. Not because the people are weak, but because the infrastructure is brittle by design. The Northeast Corridor depends on just-in-time delivery networks with three-day margins that assume trucks will always run and bridges will always stand. California's cities exist in permanent water deficit maintained only by imports traveling hundreds of miles across earthquake faults and political fault lines. Florida's peninsula offers no lateral escape when the storm surge comes, only northward highways that become parking lots. The desert Southwest operates on energy budgets that cannot be sustained without continuous fuel delivery to power plants that cannot function without water that no longer exists in sufficient quantities. The Industrial Midwest is already experiencing municipal bankruptcy that will soon make basic services - police, fire, snow removal, water treatment - unreliable or absent.

These are not predictions. They are observations of systems already stressed beyond design parameters, running on inertia and denial.

What follows is not a guide to bunker construction or food storage. It is an examination of five regions where the conditions for long-term survival exist - not because these places are easy, but because they are hard in ways that matter. They possess water, space, soil, and social structures that function without constant external inputs. They demand physical toughness, tolerance for isolation, and willingness to abandon the conveniences of contemporary life. They offer no guarantees. But they offer possibility, which is more than can be said for the places where most Americans currently live.

The selection rests on data: population density, water source reliability, agricultural capacity, energy independence, legal frameworks for self-defense. But it also rests on something harder to quantify - the persistence of skills and social patterns that predate industrial dependence. Some places remember how to survive without the grid. Others never forgot.

The window for relocation narrows daily. Land prices in these regions rise as awareness spreads. Communities that once welcomed newcomers now view them with suspicion that borders on hostility. Infrastructure that could support additional population strains under those already arriving. The question is not whether to move, but whether you will move before movement becomes impossible, before the roads clog with those fleeing the same crisis you saw coming, before the locals decide they have accepted enough outsiders.

Here are the five places.

Interior Redoubt

Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming contain approximately 3.3 million people spread across 270,000 square miles. Average density: twelve persons per square mile. In some northern counties, the figure drops below five.

Space you can breathe in.

Beneath southern Idaho lies the Snake River Plain aquifer. A USGS hydrologist explained it simply: enough water exists there to support populations hundreds of times larger than current levels, for centuries, even under drought conditions that would devastate other regions. Wells hit water at fifty to one hundred feet. In many places, the pressure is sufficient that pumps become unnecessary - gravity does the work, pushing water to the surface through artesian flow.

Montana holds the headwaters of three major river systems: Missouri, Columbia, and Mississippi. The state averages fifteen to thirty inches of precipitation annually. This water does not arrive through distant bureaucracies or engineering projects requiring political negotiation. It falls from the sky and runs off mountains that have not yet been drained by overuse because the population has never been large enough to drain them.

Wyoming has 580,000 residents. It is the least populated state. You can drive for hours and see no one. You can buy land by the hundred-acre parcel for prices that would not purchase a garage in San Francisco. The game populations - elk, deer, pronghorn, bear - are managed for sustainability rather than exhaustion. A resident can hunt them without competing with millions of others because millions of others are simply not there. They are elsewhere, packed into cities, dependent on systems that will not sustain them.

Winters here are brutal. Twenty below zero is common. Snow blocks roads for weeks, sometimes months. The growing season runs ninety to one hundred twenty days. The soil in mountain zones is thin, rocky, difficult to work. These are not inconveniences to be solved with better technology. They function as filters, keeping out those who lack the physical capacity or psychological tolerance for genuine hardship. They select for people who can survive when comfort disappears.

Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming all recognize constitutional carry. No permits are required for concealed or open carry. All three recognize Castle Doctrine and Stand Your Ground. A property owner faces no legal obligation to retreat before an intruder. These laws reflect a culture where self-reliance is expected, not merely permitted - a culture where waiting for police to arrive is understood as a luxury that may not always be available.

Communities here are not homogeneous. Some welcome newcomers with skills and capital. Others view outsiders with hostility that can last generations, rooted in experience with those who arrived with plans to transform rather than to join. Integration is slow. It requires demonstrating utility, respecting local norms, contributing before expecting acceptance. Those who arrive with intentions to make these places into versions of what they left will be resisted, sometimes violently. Those who arrive to learn and to work will eventually find their place, though "eventually" may mean years rather than months.

Life in the Redoubt demands tolerance for isolation that many cannot manage without psychological breakdown. The nearest hospital may be hours away. The nearest specialist may be days away. Preparation for winter cannot be improvised when the first storm hits in October and does not lift until April. Yet for those who meet these demands, this region offers something increasingly scarce: genuine autonomy, the possibility of building a life that does not depend on distant systems controlled by people who do not know you exist.

Water security is local. Food production is possible, though limited by climate. Defense is legally and culturally supported. Population density is low enough that resource competition will not become lethal for generations, even under severe conditions. Infrastructure is old but decentralized, simple but repairable with hand tools and knowledge that persists in the community.

A planner in Montana noted that some eastern counties have lost so much population that schools have closed, postal service runs only a few days per week, and emergency response is measured in hours rather than minutes. Some see this as demographic decline. Others see opportunity. The infrastructure exists. The land is there. The water flows. What is missing are people willing to do the work.

Ozark Plateau

Beneath the limestone and sandstone of the Ozarks lies one of the world's largest accessible aquifer systems. It covers 68,000 square miles across Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The water sits shallow. In most places, fifty to one hundred fifty feet of drilling brings you to water that does not require heavy pumps or significant energy to extract. You dig. You hit water. You drink.

A 2024 USGS study confirmed what locals have known for generations: recharge rates remain sustainable. Unlike the Ogallala Aquifer, being depleted across the Great Plains, or the Colorado River basin, over-allocated by politics and climate change, the Ozark system continues to refill naturally from precipitation averaging forty-five to sixty inches annually. This water has been there. It will likely remain there long after other sources have failed.

Missouri's state average density is ninety persons per square mile. This figure misleads. Wayne County, in the southern part of the state, holds thirteen people per square mile spread across 774 square miles of forested, hilly terrain difficult to farm with industrial machinery. This difficulty has protected it. It has not been converted to monoculture corn and soy. It remains a patchwork of small holdings, woodlots, and family farms that have survived despite agricultural economics rather than because of them.

Arkansas adds nineteen million acres of forest. Hunting is abundant: squirrel, rabbit, whitetail deer, black bear, wild turkey. A resident who learns to hunt and process game can provide protein for a household without depending on supply chains that may break without warning. Forests also provide timber for construction and fuel, foraging for mushrooms and berries, and cover dense enough to make large-scale surveillance or control practically impossible without resources no collapsing government will possess.

The climate is humid subtropical. Summers are hot and wet. Winters are mild compared to the north. The growing season runs one hundred eighty to two hundred days at lower elevations. Two crops per year become possible with planning and labor. Rainfall is consistent enough that irrigation is unnecessary for most gardening, eliminating dependence on pumps and electrical infrastructure that may fail.

Land costs are among the nation's lowest. Twenty acres with water access and building rights can be purchased for under fifty thousand dollars in many counties. This is not an investment opportunity promising returns. It is a price point that permits people of modest means to achieve property independence without mortgage debt that would force continued participation in the wage economy, continued dependence on systems that may not survive.

By conventional metrics, the Ozarks are poor. Incomes are low. Educational attainment lags national averages. Health outcomes are worse than the nation as a whole. But these metrics measure integration into a system that may not survive. They do not measure the ability to feed oneself, to build shelter, to repair machinery, to survive without external inputs that require functioning supply chains and stable currencies. By those measures, this region possesses wealth that cannot be quantified in dollars and cannot be seized by institutions that may fail.

Scots-Irish immigrants settled this region, bringing traditions of self-sufficiency that have persisted through centuries of economic marginalization. People still can vegetables, smoke meat, build with timber they have felled themselves, repair vehicles with hand tools, deliver babies without hospitals. These skills are not romantic anachronisms. They are practical capacities that become essential when the industrial infrastructure stops functioning, when the trucks stop running, when the grid goes down and does not come back up.

Social structure is tight, kinship-based, suspicious of outsiders. Family networks extend across counties. Reciprocity is expected and enforced: you help your neighbor raise his barn, he helps you bring in your harvest. Those who violate these norms find themselves excluded from the networks that provide security and mutual aid. Those who respect them, who contribute before claiming membership, may eventually find a place, though the process takes years and cannot be rushed by money or credentials.

Health care is inadequate by urban standards. Economic opportunities are limited to agriculture, logging, and tourism that will likely disappear when the economy contracts. Isolation can become crushing for those accustomed to urban stimulation and constant connectivity. Yet for those willing to work within its constraints, to accept lower material standards in exchange for genuine autonomy, the Ozarks offer water security, food production capacity, and social infrastructure that functions without dependence on distant systems.

Appalachian Highlands

Eastern slopes of the Appalachians receive more than sixty inches of annual precipitation in many zones. While the American West dries under climate change pressure, these mountains remain green, wet, breathing. Water flows from springs that have run for centuries, feeding creeks and rivers that require no pumping, no treatment plants, no distant infrastructure vulnerable to interruption. For a prepared household, that abundance can mean the difference between dependence and self-sufficiency.

Eastern Tennessee, particularly the Cumberland Plateau and the Unaka Mountains, combines this water abundance with moderate climate. The growing season exceeds two hundred days at lower elevations. The soil, though often rocky and steep, is fertile when worked with knowledge rather than machinery. Terrain is difficult - steep slopes, narrow valleys, limited road networks that become impassable in winter storms. This difficulty has protected the region from the development that has flattened other areas, turned them into suburbs and strip malls and dependent populations.

Wayne County, Tennessee, contains over two thousand documented springs. Many remain unexploited, flowing from hillsides on properties that have not been developed because the terrain made development unprofitable. A property owner who finds one has a water source that requires no electricity, that resists contamination by industrial activity, that will likely continue flowing as long as the mountains stand and the climate remains wet. Hydrology here is local. It does not depend on political agreements hundreds of miles away or engineering projects requiring maintenance by specialists who may not be available during institutional breakdown.

Western North Carolina offers similar conditions. The Blue Ridge and Great Smoky Mountains create a precipitation capture effect that keeps the region wet even when surrounding areas experience drought. Forests are dense deciduous hardwoods - oak, hickory, maple - providing timber, fuel, and forage. Streams hold trout. Hunting is adequate, though not as abundant as in the Midwest or West. Terrain makes large-scale agriculture impossible but small-scale intensive cultivation viable for those who know how to terrace slopes and work with gravity rather than against it.

West Virginia has lost sixty percent of its population since the coal peak of the mid-twentieth century. Infrastructure built for two million people now serves fewer than seven hundred thousand. Empty houses dot the hillsides. Schools have closed. Roads are maintained minimally if at all. Some interpret this as failure. Others see opportunity. Land is cheap. Water flows from springs and wells that have not been exhausted because the population that would exhaust them has left for cities that will likely not survive systemic disruption as well as this abandoned region will.

Winters here are real. Temperatures drop below freezing for extended periods. Snow falls, sometimes heavily, closing roads and increasing isolation. But the climate is not arctic. Survival is possible with preparation that is demanding but not extreme, with wood heat and stored food and clothing adequate for cold that kills the unprepared but merely inconveniences those who have prepared.

Social fabric is complex, damaged by poverty and the opioid epidemic that has devastated communities already marginalized by economic change. Educational resources are limited. Medical care is inadequate by urban standards. But there is also a resilience that does not appear in economic statistics, a capacity for mutual aid that has never stopped functioning because it was never replaced by government services that might fail.

When floods hit in 2024, the response came not from FEMA but from neighbors with excavators and chainsaws, churches with shelter space and food stores, hunters with meat to share. Networks functioned because they had never stopped functioning, never been fully outsourced to institutions that collapse when funding disappears. They were still there, still operating on reciprocity and kinship, ready to activate when crisis came.

Terrain provides natural defensive advantages that should not be underestimated. Narrow valleys limit access to single roads that can be blocked or observed. Steep slopes prevent easy surveillance from a distance, make large-scale movement difficult, provide cover for those who know the land. Dense forests hide movement and shelter. Surveillance is difficult. Control is practically impossible without massive resource expenditure that no collapsing government will be able to muster. Historical precedents - from Civil War guerrilla operations to Prohibition-era resistance to federal authority - demonstrate the region's capacity to harbor autonomous populations against forces that technically possess superior power but cannot effectively deploy it in such terrain.

Suspicion of outsiders runs deep, often justified by experience with extractive industries that took resources and left poverty, with government programs that promised development and delivered dependency. Those who arrive with money and plans to transform the region into something else, something more like the places they fled, will face resistance that can become dangerous. Those who arrive with humility, with willingness to learn, with skills to contribute and patience to wait for acceptance, may eventually find a place. The process is slow. It cannot be rushed by credentials or capital.

Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Sixteen thousand five hundred square miles. Three hundred thousand people. Simple math: there is space here. Space between settlements. Space between people. Space to disappear, to operate without observation, to survive without constant interaction with systems of control that will likely not survive prolonged instability.

Surrounding the UP are the largest freshwater reserves on Earth. Lake Superior alone contains enough water to cover the continental United States to a depth of one foot. Rivers flowing into it are numerous and, in most cases, clean enough to drink without treatment that requires chemicals and equipment that may not be available during infrastructure failure. Water is not the problem here. It is the solution to problems that will kill people elsewhere - dehydration, thirst, conflict over shrinking supplies.

The growing season is short: ninety to one hundred twenty days. Agriculture is limited, challenging, requiring crops suited to cold climates and short seasons. But the UP is not a desert. Potatoes, root vegetables, cold-hardy grains can be grown with planning, with greenhouses, with knowledge of varieties that mature quickly. More importantly, the region supports game populations - whitetail deer, black bear, small game - that can provide protein for those who hunt and possess the skills to process what they kill. Lakes and rivers hold fish. Forests provide timber for fuel and construction, enough wood to heat homes through winters that would likely kill the unprepared.

Winters are brutal in ways that must be experienced to be understood. Twenty below zero is not unusual. Snow accumulates in feet, not inches, and stays for months. Roads become impassable without heavy equipment that requires fuel and maintenance. Isolation increases as the snow falls and temperatures drop. This is not a design flaw. It is a feature. It keeps people out. It makes large-scale movement difficult. It creates a barrier that does not need to be guarded because nature guards it with cold that kills those who are not prepared for it.

Only three bridges connect the UP to the rest of Michigan. All are vulnerable to interruption by weather, by accident, by deliberate action. The road network is sparse, maintained minimally, often impassable in winter regardless of official status. Population is concentrated in a few small cities - Marquette, Houghton, Sault Ste. Marie - leaving vast areas nearly empty, populated by scattered homesteads and small settlements separated by miles of forest and water.

Land is cheap. Forty acres with water access can be purchased for thirty thousand dollars, sometimes less. Infrastructure - roads, power lines, buildings - exists from the mining boom of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries but is now underutilized, maintained for populations that no longer exist. Houses stand empty, available for those willing to repair them. Schools have closed, leaving buildings that could serve other purposes. Population has been declining for decades, creating opportunity for those seeking to establish autonomous operations without competing for resources with millions of others.

The electrical grid is vulnerable. Winter storms knock out power regularly, sometimes for days or weeks. Residents have adapted over generations. Wood heat is standard, not optional. Generators are common, though they depend on fuel that must be brought from distant sources. Culture here accepts interruption as normal rather than catastrophic. This adaptation means that when the grid fails permanently, the population will likely not panic. They will light their stoves and continue, as they have done before, as their grandparents did before them.

Medical care is limited by distance. Hospitals are few and far between. Specialized care requires travel to Green Bay or Milwaukee, hours away over dangerous roads in winter. Population is aging, older than the national average. But older residents possess skills that have been forgotten in cities: how to cut timber with hand tools and chainsaws, how to repair engines without specialized equipment, how to grow food in short seasons, how to preserve meat through smoking and freezing, how to survive without calling a service technician who may not exist when systems fail.

Life here is not for the casual prepper who believes that buying supplies is sufficient preparation. It demands preparation for winters that have killed the unprepared historically and will likely kill them again when the infrastructure that provides margin for error fails. It demands tolerance for isolation that can become psychological torture for those accustomed to constant stimulation and connectivity. It demands skills that cannot be learned from books in the moment of crisis but must be practiced over years. Yet for those who meet these demands, who possess the hardiness and knowledge required, the UP offers water security, space, and social infrastructure that functions without dependence on distant systems controlled by people who will not be there when those systems fail.

Interior Alaska

Three hundred thousand square miles. Fewer than one hundred thousand people. The density is not low. It is nearly nonexistent, approaching the point where human presence becomes statistical noise against the vastness of the land.

Interior Alaska is not a place for compromise or half-measures. Winters reach fifty below zero. Darkness lasts two months in which the sun does not rise above the horizon. Cost of living is extreme - gasoline at eight dollars per gallon when it is available, milk at ten dollars, everything flown in or barged during the brief summer when rivers are navigable. Medical care is practically nonexistent outside Fairbanks and Anchorage, and even those cities offer limited capabilities by lower-forty-eight standards. A broken bone or appendicitis or heart attack can be a death sentence if weather prevents evacuation, if the plane cannot fly, if you are too far from help to reach it in time.

Yet interior Alaska offers something no other region can match: the possibility of genuine disappearance. Not hiding. Not evasion. Ceasing to exist as a data point, a consumer, a citizen, a participant in systems of control and extraction. The land is too vast for surveillance. The population too scattered for enforcement. The conditions too harsh for those who lack the skills and temperament to survive them. The environment filters out the unprepared with brutal efficiency that makes no exceptions for good intentions or money or credentials.

Water is everywhere. Rivers flow clean enough to drink without treatment. Lakes freeze and thaw on annual cycles. Snow melts to provide drinking water. The problem is not finding water. It is staying alive while you access it, staying warm enough to melt snow, staying alert enough to avoid falling through ice, staying competent enough to travel safely in conditions where the margin for error becomes dangerously small.

Subsistence is not a hobby in interior Alaska. It is recognized by federal law - the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act of 1980 - as a protected way of life. Rural residents have the right to hunt, fish, and gather on federal lands. The harvest is substantial: 295 pounds per person annually in remote communities, compared to 22 pounds in urban areas. For those who know how to hunt caribou, how to fish salmon, how to preserve meat through drying and smoking in Arctic conditions, how to build shelter that withstands winds and cold that destroy conventional construction, survival is possible. Without those skills, the margin for error becomes dangerously small, and the land offers little forgiveness for mistakes.

Those skills are not optional. Those who lack them face conditions where small errors become fatal. Hypothermia, starvation, accidents in remote locations, encounters with bears or moose that end badly - these are common causes of death for those who underestimate the environment, who believe that equipment can substitute for knowledge, that technology can overcome conditions that have killed the unprepared for thousands of years.

Social structure is based on reciprocity and competence, enforced by necessity. Those who do not contribute to hunting or fishing do not eat. Those who cannot repair their own equipment depend on others who can, and that dependency creates obligation that must be repaid. Communities are small - villages of two hundred people, homesteads separated by miles of wilderness, families living alone with nearest neighbors hours away by snowmachine or boat. Everyone knows everyone. Everyone knows who is competent and who is not, who contributes and who takes, who can be trusted in emergency and who cannot.

Alaska has no permit requirements for firearms carry. No restrictions on weapon types. No magazine capacity limits. The culture of armed self-defense is absolute - not as political statement or identity marker, but as practical necessity. Bears exist. Moose exist, dangerous when threatened. Distance from any help is measured in hours or days, not minutes. People are armed because they must be, because the alternative is to be defenseless in an environment that does not forgive defenselessness.

The interior is not a retreat from difficulty. It is a commitment to difficulty that exceeds anything most Americans have experienced or can imagine. Those who go there must abandon connections to systems that sustain modern life. Supply flights, satellite internet, imported fuel, medical care, social services - these are vulnerabilities that pure subsistence practitioners avoid not because they reject modernity on principle but because they know that dependence on such systems is fatal when those systems fail, and in the interior, failure means death.

Native corporations own much of the land. The federal government owns most of the rest. But subsistence rights, protected by ANILCA, provide legal access to resources regardless of ownership. The legal framework recognizes what the environment enforces: survival depends on use, not on title, on the ability to extract resources from the land rather than on documents that claim ownership but provide no capacity to utilize what is owned.

Climate change affects the interior paradoxically. Warmer winters extend the season of vulnerability to thawing ice that makes travel dangerous, to shifting wildlife patterns that disrupt traditional hunting. But they also extend the brief growing season, potentially improving subsistence conditions for those who adapt to new patterns. Permafrost degrades, causing infrastructure collapse that matters little to those who never depended on infrastructure, but also creating new water access and vegetation opportunities.

Psychological demands exceed the physical in ways that are difficult to convey to those who have not experienced them. Isolation, darkness, cold, silence - these break people who lack the temperament for them, who require constant stimulation, who cannot exist without external validation or entertainment. Those who remain possess characteristics that cannot be taught in any school: patience, tolerance for discomfort, capacity for delayed gratification, comfort with silence, ability to exist without constant input from outside sources.

Interior Alaska will not save many. Barriers to entry are too high. The learning curve is too steep. Margin for error is too narrow, measured in hours or minutes rather than days. Yet for those who possess the necessary skills and temperament, who have prepared not merely with supplies but with knowledge that can only be earned through years of practice, it offers the ultimate possibility: existence beyond the reach of any system that might fail, any government that might collapse, any economy that might disintegrate. Here, you are alone in a way that no other place in America can replicate. For some, that is a nightmare. For others, it is the only freedom left.

*  *  *

There is no conclusion to draw, no moral to extract, no moral can be extracted, no call to action can be phrased in a way that will convince those who are not already convinced. These five regions exist. They have water, space, and social structures that function without constant external inputs. They demand things that most people cannot give: tolerance for isolation, acceptance of physical hardship, willingness to abandon the conveniences and connections of contemporary life, capacity to survive without the infrastructure that most Americans believe essential.

Those who wait for clear confirmation that systemic failure is imminent will likely find the window closed when they finally decide to move - the roads clogged with those fleeing the same crisis they saw coming, the locals having decided they have accepted enough outsiders, and land prices having risen beyond reach.

The choice is not between safety and danger. All five regions are dangerous in ways that matter, that can kill the unprepared. The choice is between different kinds of danger: the danger of isolation and hardship versus the danger of dependence on systems that may fail; the danger of cold and dark versus the danger of thirst and hunger in places where millions compete for shrinking resources; the danger of doing too much versus the danger of doing too little until doing anything becomes impossible.

Geography is not destiny until it is. Until the moment when the aquifer runs dry, when the grid fails and does not return, when the trucks stop running, when the violence starts and does not stop. At that moment, where you are becomes who you are, what you can do, whether you will survive or become a statistic in a catastrophe that future historians will struggle to explain, if there are historians.

The ground is shifting beneath feet that do not yet feel the movement. The question is whether you will feel it in time to move your feet to somewhere the shifting matters less.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 23:25

Morgan Stanley: Oil Traders Are "More Precise" With Risk As Wars Drag On

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com

Uncertainty about how the wars in Iran and Ukraine will unfold is keeping many traders away from taking positions in longer-dated futures contracts, according to Morgan Stanley.

Most traders have now moved to bet on futures prices within a three to six-month period, instead of longer-dated futures contracts, as volatility has spiked and uncertainty has grown regarding where the wars are going and how much they would continue to impact the global oil market.

“People have been more precise with their risk,” Brendan Ross, Co-Head Global Oil Trading at Morgan Stanley, said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore on Wednesday, as carried by Bloomberg.

“They’ve decided what they really want and what’s an unexpected bleed,” Ross added.

Many traders are ditching too risky bets and are piling up in near-dated futures contracts as they don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of the longer-dated bets amid high uncertainty about the Iran and Ukraine wars, according to the expert.

This shift into near-dated futures has sapped liquidity in the longer-term contracts, Ross noted.

Meanwhile, speculators and portfolio managers have recently amassed bets in the fuel markets as these have been considerably tighter than the crude oil market. Hedge funds have gone from short on fuels early in the spring to long now, building a net long position of 177 million barrels across the most traded fuel contracts—gasoline and diesel—as of September 1, according to the latest available data from exchanges compiled by energy analyst John Kemp.

Speculators’ position on fuels is likely to remain strongly bullish in the coming weeks, reflecting the impossibility of replacing lost output from the Middle East and Russia with alternative supply because there is not enough production capacity elsewhere. So, U.S. inventories of diesel and, most notably, gasoline, will continue to draw from an already low point.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 22:35

An AI-Designed Drug Just Moved Six Different Aging Clocks At Once

An experimental drug designed using AI has produced measurable shifts toward a younger biological-age profile in patients.

Developed by Insilico Medicine, the drug - rentosertib - was initially engineered to treat idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), a progressive, age-associated lung-scarring disease. When researchers analyzed blood samples from a Phase IIa clinical trial, they applied six proteomic profiling "aging clocks" among 42 participants. All six detected reductions in predicted biological age, whereas the placebo group showed little change or slight increases. The most pronounced and consistent effects emerged around week four of treatment.

The study was authored by Insilico with academic collaborators from Harvard, Stanford, the Broad Institute, RWTH Aachen, Peking University and Westlake University.

Insilico used AI not only to identify a specific enzyme (TNIK) linked to both fibrosis and aging pathways, but also to generate and optimize the specific molecule designed to inhibit it. That dual application makes rentosertib a rare clinical test of AI uncovering a target case and building new therapeutics from scratch.

In the earlier Phase IIa, patients in the 60mg once-daily arm recorded a mean improvement in forced vital capacity of 98.4 milliliters against a mean decline of 20.3 milliliters on placebo. FVC declines with age in healthy people over 65 at roughly 20 to 50 milliliters a year, which is why Insilico treats it as a physiological aging marker as well as an efficacy endpoint.

Via nature.com. Click to expand

"If you manage to add 3 years to everyone's life, the drug should be able to significantly extend the healthy portion of life as well, translating into trillions of dollars in productivity and savings," said Alex Zhavoronkov, Insilico's founder and co-CEO.

And according to 2013 chemistry Nobel laureate Michael Levitt, "What convinces me is not the size of the effect but the agreement, because these models share neither their features nor their training data," he said of the six clocks reaching the same conclusion on the same 42 patients.

Rentosertib is no longer confined to early-stage laboratory work. In July, Insilico announced that the drug had entered a randomized Phase III trial, expected to enroll 320 IPF patients for a 52-week, once-daily regimen. That trial is designed to evaluate pulmonary-fibrosis efficacy and safety, not life extension - but it advances an AI-generated molecule into the final phase of clinical development. Of note - the study does not prove that rentosertib extends human lifespan or literally shaves years off a patient's age. But the clock results, the senescence and metabolic pathway shifts, and the dose-dependent FVC gains all point the same way, and more study is needed to understand the possibilities.

If the drug succeeds clinically, it validates AI-driven drug discovery, and offers a template for testing future medicines against both specific age-related diseases and the biomarkers of aging itself. If it fails in Phase III, the aging clocks will have been measuring a lung.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 22:10