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Futures Fall, Oil Rises As Mideast Violence Flares Up

US futures are but well off session lows, as part of a weaker risk tape after the US and Iran exchanged strikes, fueling doubts whether an end to the war is imminent and crushing hopes for a Hormuz deal (gasp). Overnight, US forces carried out airstrikes on an Iranian military site which Centcom described as "purely defensive" and designed to maintain the ceasefire; it also imposed new sanctions to prevent Tehran from profiting from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran targeted the American airbase from which the attack originated. Centcom said that Kuwait also intercepted a ballistic missile launched toward it. While S&P futures initially tumbled as much as 0.5% on the news in overnight trading, they since recovered much of the losses, but were still down 0.2% as of 8:00am, with Nasdaq futures down 0.5%. In premarket trading, Mag7 names are mostly lower as Semis are sold and Software bid post earnings releases. Defensives and Energy are the notable outperformers as the market resumes its US / Iran playbook; EM likely to underperform DM. Bond yields are up 1-2bp as the yield curve bear flattens; the 10Y is up to 4.50%, after earlier rising to 4.53%. Crude prices are not seeing as dramatic of a response as earlier in the conflict; natgas is trading lower, Ags higher, and metals for sale as USD sees a bid. Today’s macro data focus is on PCE, Income, and Spending to gauge the depth of the impact from the Middle East Conflict with add’l updates to Durable / Cap Goods, Jobless Claims, and 26Q1 GDP revisions. Aside from a resumption of the kinetic conflict / failure for a deal, JPMorgan views inflation as the biggest risk to Equities with bond yields as the transmission mechanism. Today’s print will be important but given the status of the conflict, next month’s CPI print is likely the more important print. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Microsoft +0.9%, Meta +0.2%, Apple -0.2%, Amazon -0.4%, Alphabet -0.5%, Nvidia -1.1%, Tesla -1.3%)

• Braze Inc. shares (BRZE) are down 11% after the cloud—based software company reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook. Despite the stock’s decline, analysts are broadly positive, and recommended buying on weakness.
• BRP Inc. (DOO) rises 8.1% after it boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, which beat the average analyst estimate.
• Caesars Entertainment (CZR) rises 2% after Fertitta Entertainment agreed to acquire the company in an all-cash transaction valued at about $17.6 billion.
• Dollar Tree shares (DLTR) rise 10% after the retailer boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year above the consensus estimate after stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter.
• Dominion Energy Inc. shares (D) rise 0.5% after Jefferies raised its recommendation on the utilities company to buy from hold on the NextEra Energy merger.
• Everpure shares (P) fall 11% as the computer storage company gave a full-year revenue guidance that implied slower growth in the second half of the year amid higher prices.
• HP Inc. shares (HPQ) drop 1.6% as higher memory chip prices weigh on the PC maker’s profit forecast for the third quarter.
• Marvell Technology shares (MRVL) fall 2.7% as the chipmaker’s modest beat failed to impress investors with high expectations.
• NCino shares (NCNO) rise 12% after the cloud banking company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year as subscription revenues increase on AI demand.
• Photronics shares (PLAB) fall 26% after it forecast adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Shares in drone-related firms (UMAC +27%, RCAT +15%) are rallying after the Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration is exploring funding deals with a group of drone companies.
• Synopsys shares (SNPS) are down 2% after the electronic design automation software company reported its second-quarter results.

In other news, Snowflake surged after the software maker gave a stronger-than-expected annual outlook and signed a $6 billion multi-year agreement to use Amazon’s cloud services and chips. In contrast, Salesforce results and outlook didn’t do enough to erase concerns over AI-related disruption. D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria said the shift to AI for Salesforce is taking longer than expected. In terms of space exploration and drone technology, the Trump administration is said to be negotiating funding deals with drone companies designed to boost production and lower weapon costs, according to the WSJ. Space exploration has all the ingredients “for the next bubble squeeze,” according to Mike O’Rourke of Jonestrading. 

The latest flare-up between the US and Iran showed the fragility of their ceasefire, despite most traders viewing a lasting deal between the sides as only a matter of time. The prospect of oil-driven inflation is also building, prompting central bankers to increasingly warn that interest rates may need to rise. 

“The market is caught between two very different worlds,” said Aneeka Gupta, director of macro-economic research at Wisdomtree. “One where we get a deal, and you have a follow-through of a very powerful cyclical recovery, and another where the conflict process deepens the stagflation impact on the economy.”

WTI crude oil rose but remained below levels seen earlier in the week. Bloomberg Economics notes that Trump retains market-moving power on the commodity. “If we adjust for the drop in background volatility since the ceasefire with Iran began, each headline from the White House still moves crude-oil prices by the same amount as it did in the early days of the war,” he says. For stocks, volatility remains low and the ‘vol of vol’ gauge hit a rarely seen sub-90 reading on Wednesday.

Less than a day after Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook warned that inflation was headed in the wrong direction, Minneapolis Fed  President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that consumer prices were still “much too high.” The Fed’s Philip Jefferson said that inflationary risks remained tilted to the upside even as he expects the effects of tariffs and higher energy costs to wear off. The ripple effects of the war will occupy the European Central Bank even after the conflict is resolved, according to Chief Economist Philip Lane.

Elsewhere, the AI bull case faces a headwind in the form of rising token costs, raising the question of whether escalating Large Language Model expenses now present a bigger risk to the AI trade than equity valuations. The Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index, measuring the dollar cost per one million tokens, has doubled in six months. 

Goldman's Delta One head Rich Privorotsky joined the discussion overnight with the following observation on Token economics:

"Reading that DeepSeek reportedly cut token pricing by 75% and Xiaomi’s MiMo by almost 99% immediately brought back memories of the old Groupon subsidy wars and the inevitable race to the bottom economics of commoditized delivery. There’s also been a massive rise in open-source enthusiasm. I was honestly blown away running an 8B version of Qwen locally on a four-year-old MacBook last night (ok it couldn't do much but it felt downloading the internet in 5gb...18ms ago you would have need a data center for this!). Notably, Chinese onshore datacenter and AI infrastructure names have diverged sharply post release (they all went down).  Maybe a bit of a leap here but I think the market is beginning to ask whether token cost compression temporarily breaks the logic of pure Jevons paradox demand expansion. It's not whether demand ultimately rises… it probably does… but whether there is a meaningful lag where cheaper tokens simply cannibalize higher cost inference before entirely new use cases emerge. Nobody is arguing open source models are fully comparable to frontier systems, although the quality gap is clearly narrowing quickly. The more important point is that a huge percentage of enterprise tasks simply do not require frontier level reasoning or expensive inference. That becomes a major boardroom conversation into Q2/Q3. Rationalization of token spend may become just as important as the AI growth narrative itself, particularly when “90% of the output for 10% of the cost” becomes increasingly viable through open source alternatives."

Earnings and economic data will also be in focus for traders today looking for signs of the “K-shaped” economy with results from a number of consumer facing corporates, while the Fed gets an important inflation print ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as chair next month. Bloomberg expects the PCE deflator to slow from March’s red-hot print to a still-hot reading in April, driven by gas and food prices. A number of Fed speakers gave views overnight. Jefferson said he expects inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and higher energy costs wear off, though he warned inflationary risks remain tilted to the upside. Kashkari warned that consumer prices remain “much too high.” Meanwhile Goolsbee again cautioned that increased investment and spending due to a projected surge in future productivity growth may be inflationary. 

Thursday data is expected to show that the US personal consumption expenditures price index jumped 3.8% in April from a year ago. That would put inflation a full percentage point higher than it was in February, marking the biggest two-month acceleration since 2021.

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, said the fact that markets have given up on Fed rate cuts for the foreseeable future means it will take a major downside surprise in core PCE for bonds to move significantly. “For the question if and by how much the Fed may raise rates later on, we need to watch whether the Iran shock filters through into non-energy prices,” Schmieding said.

The caution in markets and worries that equities have run too hard are misplaced, said Mathias Heim, chief investment officer at Belle Capital. “If a peace deal takes another two weeks or two months, I don’t think markets care as much anymore unless oil meaningfully breaks higher,” Heim said. “The elephant in the room is the AI capex cycle, which drives profit growth and multiples. Structurally, equities remain the go-to asset class.”

In other news, Perella Weinberg Partners is cutting almost 10% of its workforce, including a dozen partners, to channel resources into higher-performing areas of its business. Eli Lilly said it will press ahead with global drug launches despite uncertainty over the Trump administration’s Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) pricing proposal.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.7%; tech saw the biggest gains, rebounding from losses in the prior session, while healthcare and media fell. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Soitec shares climbed as much as 21%, resuming their stellar year-to-date rally after three days of losses
• PPHE Hotel Group jumped as much as 25%, the biggest jump since 2011, after the owner and operator of upscale hotels said it received an indicative takeover proposal worth £22 per share from Fattal Hotel Group
• Salvatore Ferragamo gained as much as 9.3%, the most since May 7, after saying it has launched a share buyback program for up to 5% of its share capital
• Computacenter shares rose as much as 1.9%, hitting a record high, after the company said it is buying a value-added reseller focused on the US federal government market, which will immediately boost earnings upon completion
• X-Fab shares fell as much as 8.7% on Thursday, giving back some gains after the stock was recommended by a popular X account a day earlier
• Shares in UK homebuilders fell after a series of downgrades from Goodbody, which highlights the sector’s profit-margin headwinds stemming from a weakening macro climate, particularly higher interest rates, and build-cost inflation
• Elekta shares dropped as much as 16%, the most since July 2025, after the Swedish medical technology firm reported sales and orders for the fourth quarter that disappointed analysts

A gauge for Asian stocks snapped its longest winning streak since February: Asian equities retreated from a record, ending a five-day winning streak, as investors assessed conflicting signals from the US and Iran on prospects for a deal to end the war. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.9%, the most since May 15. Most equity benchmarks in the region were in the red, with the Hang Seng Index falling nearly 2%. Taiwan’s Taiex Index turned negative after hitting an intra-day record earlier in the day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 5.3% in the past five sessions. Investor sentiment has turned cautious due to elevated energy prices and the risk of renewed inflation, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut. President Donald Trump said he was “not satisfied” in negotiations with Iran, dampening expectations for an imminent breakthrough in the Middle East conflict. Elsewhere in Asia, Chinese semiconductor stocks extend gains as Huawei’s chip breakthrough continues to buoy market sentiment. Markets in India and Indonesia are closed for holidays.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is edging higher for a third straight day while the Japanese yen is the best performing G-10 currency, rising a few pips against the greenback. GBP/USD declines 0.2% to 1.3405, down a third day

In rates, treasury futures are off session lows in early US session, but remain under pressure with yields 1.5bp-3bp cheaper across a flatter curve. Front-end tenors lead the selloff with yields 3bp cheaper on the day after climbing nearly 5bp; WTI crude futures remain 2.7% higher after rising as much as 3.8%. 10-year TSY near 4.5% is 1.6bp higher, slightly underperforming bunds and gilts in the sector. Gains in oil weigh after renewed attacks in the Persian Gulf erode expectations of a peace accord. New Zealand’s bonds pared losses after the government announced a plan to reduce bond issuance in the coming years. Focal points of US session include 7-year note auction at 1pm New York time and economic data including PCE price indexes and 1Q GDP revision.  This week’s Treasury auctions conclude with $44 billion 7-year note at 1pm New York time, following solid results for 2- and 5-year note sales. WI 7-year yield near 4.34% is about 16.5bp cheaper than last month’s, which tailed by 0.5bp. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far, however at least one issuer stood down Wednesday, when 12 offerings totaling $21.3 billion were priced, led by Goldman Sachs’ $9b four-part transaction. Issuers paid about 3bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.7 times covered.

In commodities, Brent crude futures for July are up 3% near $97 a barrel having topped $98 earlier after renewed attacks in the Persian Gulf fueled doubts over whether an end to the Iran war is imminent. Precious metals and Bitcoin are declining. 

Today's economic data slate includes April personal income/spending (with PCE price indexes), weekly jobless claims, April durable goods orders, 1Q GDP revision (all at 8:30am) and April new home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Williams (8:55am), Musalem (10:15am, 1:10pm) and Barkin (3pm). 

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The US struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week and Kuwait said it responded to missile and drone threats. Iran targeted the US base where the strikes originated, state-run Press TV reported. BBG
• A US oil tanker intended to cross the Strait of Hormuz by turning off radar system, but IRGC Navy fired at it and forced it to turn back, while US army fired into Bandar Abbas but caused no damage. This was the cause of the earlier reported explosions. No casualties or damages were caused by the US, which fired at a scorched-earth area. Separately, Iran's Navy forced four vessels to turn back in the Strait of Hormuz by firing warning shots: Tasnim
• China's central bank has instructed banks to boost lending this month, people with knowledge of the matter said, underscoring Beijing's continued efforts to support an economy squeezed by higher energy costs ‌and stubbornly weak domestic demand. RTRS
• Hong Kong plans to launch a gold-clearing system by July, giving it a first-mover advantage over rival Singapore, which has announced similar plans without a timeline. BBG
• South Korea’s central bank held rates steady at its first meeting under Gov. Shin Hyun-song, though it signaled tighter policy ahead as it raised its forecasts for economic growth and inflation. WSJ
• Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook said she is prepared to raise interest rates if disinflation does not appear in a timely manner. For now, the right course of action is to hold rates steady, but risks still remain tilted toward higher inflation. WSJ
• Goolsbee warned that the persistent combination of energy shocks and stubborn inflation could push the U.S. economy into a “stagflationary” direction characterized by a simultaneous rise in unemployment and price growth. WSJ
• South Africa’s central bank is set to raise borrowing costs for the first time in three years today, with the benchmark interest rate forecast to increase to 7%. BBG
• The ECB’s Philip Lane said ripple effects of the Iran war, such as on the labor market, will occupy policymakers even after the conflict is resolved. BBG
• Amazon Web Services has signed up cloud storage company Snowflake as its latest chips customer, as the proliferation of artificial intelligence agents continues to drive high levels of demand for computing hardware. SNOW plans to pay $6 billion over the next five years for access to Amazon’s Graviton chips inside AWS data centers. SNOW +35% premkt on strong outlook from last night’s print.  WSJ
• "The momentum factor has historically stalled around May and July but seen a significant ramp up in June with the factor actually being the highest performing seasonally in the month. We do think the move higher came early this year, and while we still think there is a potential for upside in the leaders, we are more concerned with unwind risk and squeezes in the laggards at the current moment": Goldman

Iran conflict news

• US official said US military carried out new strikes on an Iranian military site and shot down multiple Iranian drones that posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime in the Strait of Hormuz.
• IRGC said it targeted the US air base in response to the US aggression earlier near Bandar Abbas Airport, according to Tasnim. said:. Any further US attacks would trigger a more decisive response. Washington bears responsibility for consequences.
• Military source tells Tasnim that hours ago, a US oil tanker intended to cross the Strait of Hormuz by turning off radar system, but IRGC Navy fired at it and forced it to turn back, while US army fired into Bandar Abbas but caused no damage. This was the cause of the earlier reported explosions. No casualties or damages were caused by the US, which fired at a scorched-earth area.
• Iran's Navy forced four vessels to turn back in the Strait of Hormuz by firing warning shots, according to Tasnim.
• Sound of three explosions heard from the east of Bandar Abbas, Iran, with exact location and source of the sounds still unclear, while air defences were activated for a few minutes, according to Fars News Agency.
• "Hearing the sound of multiple explosions in Kuwait", ISNA reported, "Kuwait’s official news agency stated that air defense systems are currently countering missile and drone attacks" [likely referring to earlier reported].
• Air raid sirens sounding in Kuwait, while Kuwaiti Army said air defense intercept hostile missile and drone attacks, according to Al Hadath.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Gulf Strait Authority action targets Hormuz tolls, adds the Treasury is maintaining maximum pressure on Iran.
• Iranian National Security Council Official Bagheri said Iran’s assets must be released unconditionally, Tasnim reported.
• US issues fresh Iran-related sanctions by adding Persian Gulf Strait Authority to its SDN list.
• US has carried out a defence operation in Bandar Abbas, Iran, according to Faytuks Network citing an official that said, “the US will act to safeguard its regional interests, and this does not affect the ceasefire”.
• Iran Supreme National Security Council Deputy Secretary Baqeri met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, and discuss a number of important issues on the current international agenda with focus on the situation around Iran's nuclear program. Via IRNA/Telegram.
• Deputy Head of Public Relations for the IRGC Aerospace Force, Ali Naderi, said on Wednesday If enemies launch military action again, the Islamic Republic's response will be different from anything seen so far. said: "...they will face a new image of Iran".
• Head of Iranian Parliament National Security Committee said Iran will not be pushed back by US President Trump's rhetoric from its red lines: rights to enrich uranium and its possession, authority over the Strait of Hormuz and removal of sanctions.
• IRIB reporter said no signs of an explosion have been seen in Bandar Abbas, while some people have heard the sound of this explosion and none of the officials concerned about the matter have issued any official statement.
• Axios reported that US military had shot down 4 Iranian drones targeting ships and an Iranian drone launcher on the ground.
• Israeli fighter jets carry out attack on the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon, according to Mehr News Agency.
• Hamas spokesperson said the Gaza ceasefire agreement faces risk of collapse due to occupation's crimes and ongoing violations, Al Jazeera reported.
• IDF said it's striking Hezbollah infrastructure in the area of Tyre in southern Lebanon.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured amid a flare-up of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the US conducted another defensive operation in which it attacked a launch site and shot down drones after they posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime in the Strait of Hormuz, while the IRGC said it responded by attacking the US base where the US aggression originated from. ASX 200 retreated amid the geopolitical escalation and with sentiment not helped by mixed data in which capex topped estimates, but household spending disappointed. Nikkei 225 was initially choppy but ultimately retreated amid the rebound in oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were negative but to varying degrees, with the Hong Kong benchmark underperforming following recent earnings and mixed tech fortunes.

Top Asian News

• S&P affirms Hong Kong at AA+, outlook stable.
• Japan's ruling party proposes allowing the government to issue bridging bonds to fund certain expenditures, which can be excluded from debt-to-GDP ratio and primary balance calculations.
• Australia's APRA maintained current macroprudential policy setting following a review.
• Japan considers bridging bonds for growth investments, according to Nikkei.
• Korea's NPS has lifted its domestic stock weight target to 20.8% (prev. 14.9%), Bloomberg reports

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) are broadly lower this morning as markets digest the recent flare-up between the US and Iran. In brief, the US struck Iranian military bases, whilst the IRGC responded with its own attacks on US air bases. Furthermore, Iran’s Navy stated it forced four vessels to turn back in the Strait of Hormuz by firing warning shots. Aside from these flare-up, updates since have been lacking – with markets tentatively waiting for whether this round of strikes will lead to further escalation. As a reminder, Iran has taken the position that further strikes on its land will lead to a war outside of the region. European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Tech leads, followed closely by Energy, whilst Media and Healthcare lag. Tech appears to be rebounding from recent losses, with fundamental drivers lacking, despite the higher yield environment; action potentially driven by post-earnings strength in Snowflake, whilst Marvell’s headline metrics were strong. US equity futures (ES -0.1% NQ -0.3% RTY -0.3%) are in the red this morning, following the action seen in APAC/European trade. The day ahead is packed with key US data, including US PCE (Apr), GDP 2nd estimate and jobless claims. Previewing PCE in brief, following hotter than expected CPI and PPI reports, analysts updated econometric models point to April core PCE inflation of between +0.3-0.4% M/M (prev. +0.3%). In terms of pre-market movers: HP (-2.2%, strong headline metrics, though downgraded its FY outlook), Marvell (-1.5%, headline metrics beat and provided upbeat outlook; though highlighted supply chain constraints), Snowflake (+35%, secures a USD 6bln Amazon deal).

Top European News

• Italian Consumer Confidence (May) 93.4 (Prev. 90.8).
• Italian Business Confidence (May) 87.9 (Prev. 87.9).
• Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator (May) 99.3 (Prev. 99.0).
• Swedish Consumer Inflation Expectations (May) 5.9% (Prev. 6.8%).
• Swedish Consumer Confidence (May) 92.4 (Prev. 91.5).
• Swedish Business Confidence (May) 103.3 (Prev. 103.3).
• Swedish Balance of Trade (Apr) -7.30B (Prev. 9.3B).
• Spanish Retail Sales MoM (Apr) M/M -1.5% (Prev. 1.2%).
• Spanish Retail Sales YoY (Apr) Y/Y 0.8% (Prev. 4.1%).

FX

• G10s are broadly lower against the Buck with the Dollar Index +0.1% as oil prices rebound on US and Iran exchanging fire. General sour sentiment across assets sees high-beta underperform despite central bank pricing moves re. Antipodeans on Wednesday, while cyclicals are also weaker. JPY is a touch firmer against the USD, and trades around 159.30.
• The Buck marks its third consecutive session of gains and marked a fresh May high amid the US-Iran flare-up (See Iranian War Day 90 analysis on headline feed). The Dollar index has moved further away from significant DMAs, which are now well below and with no sign of an immediate resolution and repricing of G10 rates, with oil far from recent highs and Waller shifting hawkish, the recent drivers. Today’s driver will be the PCE and GDP reports, alongside Fed speak from Williams, Musalem and Barkin.
• AUD is the weakest currency in the G10 space on the day amid the general geopolitical risk tone, lower-than-expected Aussie inflation data and the popular carry trade against NZD vulnerable to a Hawkish RBNZ this week. On Wednesday, headlines pointed out that the Antipodean cross marked the largest one-day decline since 2016. The cross found some buyers just above 1.2050, though not enough to halt its declines. AUD/NZD -0.1% on the day. MUFG writes “...with the pre-emptive nature of the RBA policy approach allowing a longer period of pause, a further extension lower in AUD/NZD seems likely.”
• EUR is a touch lower against a stronger Buck with firmer energy benchmarks hurting the single currency. Remains a lack of EZ-specific newsflow as focus exclusively lies on geopolitics, which drives the Greenback. 1.16 remains supported for now, where it found buyers below overnight. ING highlights risks “in our view, should the US-Iran stalemate continue. We still see some risks of a 1.150 test before a rebound, but intraday trading remains highly headline-dependent.”

Central Banks

• Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said energy inflation has been more persistent than expected and warns that Asia faced an old-style stagflation shock.
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) said focus remains on 2% inflation target and noted US labour market is very resilient to the energy shock.
• Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) said labour market is in decent shape, consumer prices remain too high, and inflation remains the top priority.
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) said has not prejudged outcome of June FOMC meeting and monetary policy is well positioned to respond to the economy. said:. Is firmly committed to getting inflation back to 2%. Risks around inflation outlook are tilted to upside. Expects inflation to wane later this year on fading tariff, energy hits. Energy shock downside risk to growth, upside risk to inflation. Recent US economic activity has been solid. Labour market stable with risks tilted toward downside. US is not immune to oil-related energy shocks.
• Fed's Cook (voter) said she is atuned to inflation expectations, also watching oil. Would be problematic if oil prices move in the wrong direction.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said expects the BoJ to closely coordinate with the government, adds cabinet is in agreement specific monetary policy means are left to the BoJ. said:. Hope the BoJ will conduct appropriate monetary policy to achieve 2% price targets stably, sustainably and rising wages. There is nothing she can add regarding the PM's meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda beyond what Governor Ueda revealed after the meeting.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said we have seen supply shocks in food and energy, which even if temporary, can lift the overall inflation rate because of their cumulative impact.
• ECB President Lagarde speaks on "When It Matters Most: Upholding Independence in Challenging Times".
• ECB's Lane said even if initial energy shock starts to reverse, the second round will be with us for a while. said: Even if there is some kind of resolution to the Iran war, conflict has gone on for so long, there may be repositioning in terms of optimal diversification strategy.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said the board considers that inflation pressures will intensify in the future and the cash rate needs to be raised further.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said the weak labour market will suppress wage growth, adds certain parts of the New Zealand economy remain in good shape including agriculture and parts of manufacturing. said it will take some time to see the full effect of higher oil prices across wider sectors.
• China's PBoC is to reportedly guide banks to boost May lending amid weak credit issuance, sources suggest.
• BoK keeps 7-day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected.
• BoK Governor Shin said we will act decisively to stem any herd-like behaviours in the FX market, adds there may be technical differences within board members about when to hike, but board members agree the direction should be tightening.
• BoK Governor Shin said Middle East war uncertainty persists and oil stability is to take time to return, adds local growth expansion driven by semiconductor boom.
• BoK said board members Ryoo and Chang dissented to Thursday's rate decision and called for a rate hike.

Fixed Income

• A softer start to the day for fixed benchmarks, as the energy space reacts to renewed strikes from both the US and Iran. Bunds and USTs hit lows overnight, with downside of c. 45 and 12 ticks respectively. Since, the space has lifted off worst levels as the intensity of newsflow slows and energy eases from best. However, the space remains in the red heading into a relatively busy session, particularly in the US.
• Bunds hit a 125.53 low overnight, reacting to the US and Iran action, and also as the language from US President Trump regarding Oman got greater attention. The intensity of newsflow has since slowed, and Bunds have managed to lift off lows but remain in the red by a handful of ticks.
• Today's European docket has several ECB officials and the April Minutes. From the officials, any remarks which decrease/increase the odds of a June move will, of course, be eyed. Similarly, from the Minutes, insight into how broad the discussion was around tightening and while the decision was unanimous for a hold, did any member(s) initially express a preference for taking action at that point.
• Gilts gapped lower by 35 ticks, taking out the trough from Tuesday at 87.99 and as such notching a new WTD low. Though, one that remains comfortably clear of last week's 84.96 contract base. For the UK newsflow remains relatively light as we count down to the mid-June by-election, after which the Labour leadership contest will step up a gear, irrespective of the result.
• USTs in-fitting with Bunds. Notched a 109-17+ base overnight, and has lifted a 109-29 high, to unchanged on the session. The US docket ahead is packed with multiple Fed officials, whose remarks will continue to be scrutinised for insight into what the outcome of the first meeting under Warsh will be. Additionally, April's PCE is seen ticking higher to 3.8% Y/Y (prev. 3.5%), but moderating to 0.5% M/M (prev. 0.7%).
• UK sells GBP 1bln 0.375% 2030 Gilt via tender: b/c 4.19x (prev. 2.97x), average yield 4.277% (prev. 3.796%).
• Italy sells EUR 7.25bln vs exp. EUR 6-7.25bln 3.15% 2031, 3.80% 2036, 2.25% 2036 BTP and EUR 3.75bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.75bln 3.237% 2036, 3.237% 2035 CCTeu.

Commodities

• Overnight, the main geopolitical update has been the US-Iran flare-up. The US carried out new strikes near Bandar Abbas after accusing Iran of threatening maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran responded with strikes on a US air base and claimed it forced vessels, including a US-linked tanker, to turn back in Hormuz. Air raid sirens sounded in Kuwait as Kuwaiti air defences intercepted hostile missiles and drones.
• Despite this, efforts for negotiations are seemingly continuing. As a reminder, the US rebuffed the unofficial MoU released by Iranian State Media (which suggested Iran and Oman are to manage the Strait of Hormuz).
• Russia's Transneft plans to expand capacity of Espo oil pipeline, RIA reported; oil shipments for export via the Transneft system in 2026 will be comparable to the 2025 level.
• WTI Jul and Brent Aug futures rose to highs of around USD 92.50/bbl and USD 96.00/bbl, respectively, amid the skirmish. Prices have since waned off highs back to around USD 90.75/bbl and USD 94.50/bbl respectively amid a lack of further attacks and with nothing to suggest negotiations are not still intact. Dutch TTF similarly rose above EUR 48/MWh before settling around EUR 47.50/MWh at the time of writing, +2.5% intraday.
• Spot gold and silver are softer but off lows, in tandem with price action across energy. Spot gold briefly dipped under its 200 DMA (USD 4,394/oz) and trades towards the lower end of a USD 4,366-4,462.58/oz range. Traders may be looking ahead to the US PCE metrics as a source of impetus. Following hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports, analysts’ updated econometric models now point to April core PCE inflation of +0.3-0.4% M/M, up from the prior +0.3%. That being said, a major geopolitical update could overshadow the data in this fluid environment.
• Base metals are mostly softer, and to varying degrees, with price action somewhat muted given the lack of macro newsflow. Overnight, copper extended declines amid the downbeat mood in Asia following reports of the US and Iran's retaliatory strikes, but clambered off its worst levels since. 3M LME copper resides towards the top end of a USD 13,465.80- 13,595.97/t range.
• Iran has restored production at the South Pars industrial hub to its pre-war capacity following an intensive repair operation, according to PressTV.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.8mln (exp. -4.4mln), Distillates +11.0mln (exp. -2.0mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -2.9mln), Cushing -2.9mln.

Trade/Tariffs

• China's MOFCOM said it is negotiating with the EU within the WTO over EU steel curbs; adds China-EU economic relations are mutually beneficial.
• EU is to broaden import quotas and tariffs against China, according to the bloc's industry commissioner, cited by FT.

Geopolitics (ex Iran)

• Russia's Transneft plans to expand capacity of Espo oil pipeline, RIA reported; oil shipments for export via the Transneft system in 2026 will be comparable to the 2025 level.
• Russian intelligence chief said NATO is making preparations for a large-scale conflict on the eastern border, Sky News Arabia reported.
• Ukrainian military said it has attacked Russia's Tuapse oil refinery (240k BPD).
• EU Foreign Affairs Policy Chief Kallas said Russia is on the back foot on the battle field, adds should not walk in Russia's trap concerning discussions who should be at the negotiating table and it should be about substance.
• Ukraine President Zelensky submits a draft law on ratification of loan agreement between the Ukraine and EU, according to the Ukraine Parliament website.
• North Korea's Foreign Ministry states that the country will never denuclearise, while it accused US-led Quad of maintaining hostile stance towards Pyongyang and other regional nations, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Apr Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%
• 8:30 am: Apr Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 0.9%
• 8:30 am: Apr PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 3.5%
• 8:30 am: Apr Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Apr Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.2%
• 8:30 am: May 23 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210.5k, prior 209k
• 8:30 am: May 16 Continuing Claims, est. 1784k, prior 1782k
• 8:30 am: Apr P Durable Goods Orders, est. 4%, prior 0.8%
• 8:30 am: Apr P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior 0.9%
• 8:30 am: 1Q S GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2%, prior 2%
• 8:30 am: 1Q S Personal Consumption, est. 1.6%, prior 1.6%
• 8:30 am: 1Q S GDP Price Index, est. 3.6%, prior 3.6%
• 8:30 am: 1Q S Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%
• 10:00 am: Apr New Home Sales, est. 660.09k, prior 682k

Central Bank speakers

• 8:55 am: Fed’s Williams Speaks at Reykjavík Economic Conference
• 10:15 am:Fed’s Musalem Speaks in Reykjavik
• 1:10 pm: Fed’s Musalem Appears on Bloomberg TV
• 3:00 pm: Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Moderrated Discussion

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

One skill required in this job at the moment is adaptability as the tone has all changed in the last couple of hours with Oil back up and equities down after the US carried out another series of defensive strikes and imposed sanctions preventing Iran from profiting from Strait of Hormuz traffic. According to a US official they shot down some Iranian drones fired at a commercial ship and also struck an Iranian drone launching site near the strait. They claim the ceasefire still holds with the Irainian's claiming they targeted a US airbase in retaliation.

This has led to Brent rallying +3.92% this morning to $97.99/bbl after falling -5.31% yesterday and to a one-month low of $94.29/bbl. Equity markets are lower across the board after a decent day yesterday.

It's been a busy 24 hours for headlines on the war.

The main one yesterday came from Iran’s state TV, who reported on an unofficial draft for an interim peace deal. According to them, this proposal would see maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal within a month, while the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports. So initially, there was a clear rally as hopes grew that the Strait would reopen. However, we then heard from the White House later on, who said this report was a “complete fabrication”, which dampened hopes for an imminent deal. And Trump also said in a PBS interview that Iran wouldn’t get sanctions relief for giving up their highly enriched uranium. Just after Europe closed Trump said that he was "not satisfied" with the current state of negotiations and that "Maybe we have to go back and finish it".  And shortly after the US close, we heard a senior Iranian parliamentarian push back on Trump’s rhetoric, saying it would not deter Iran from its “red lines” on enriched uranium, authority over the Strait of Hormuz, and the removal of sanctions.

Given the rally in Oil, US Treasury yields are back up 4 to 4.5bps across the curve this morning with the 10yr yield at 4.53% as I type after a 5-day rally. S&P (-0.37%) and Nasdaq (-0.80%) futures are lower after the cash markets in yesterday's session hit all time highs at the same time, along with the DOW, for the first time in 2026.

In Asia the KOSPI (-3.61%) is the largest underperformer with the Hang Seng (-2.12%) also burdened by weakness in technology shares, along with the Nikkei (-1.34%). The S&P/ASX 200 (-1.59%) is also weak. Mainland Chinese stocks are down less than a percent.  
The session yesterday went pretty well with the decline in oil prices meaning that concerns about inflation eased, with investors pricing out the chance of aggressive rate hikes this year. We saw that in several ways, but the US 1yr inflation swap (-2.2bps) hit a two-month low of 3.03%, and the Euro 1yr inflation swap (-9.3bps) also fell to 3.36%. So that pushed central bank pricing in a slightly more dovish direction, with the probability of a Fed rate hike by December down to 62% by the close, having been at 66% the previous day. Similarly at the ECB, the amount of hikes priced by December was also down to 58bps by the close, down –2.1bps from the previous day. These are all giving up some of these gains this morning.  

We have US core PCE to look forward to today which is an important number. This comes after some hawkish comment from Fed Governor Cook late in the US session, who said she was “attuned to the risk that elevated inflation will become embedded” and “prepared to raise rates, if the expected disinflation does not appear in a timely manner”.

Before this morning's sell-off, equities saw a mixed performance yesterday as investors grappled with the various headlines. In the US, the S&P 500 (+0.02%) and Nasdaq (+0.07%) narrowly posted new record highs, while the Mag-7 (+0.92%) outperformed. Those gains came despite the Philly semiconductor index retreating (-1.36%) and decliners outnumbering advancers in the S&P for a second session running. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.03%) closed within 1% of its record high from February, with gains for the FTSE 100 (+0.13%) and the CAC 40 (+0.43%) outweighing a decline for FTSEMIB (-0.64%). European Stoxx futures are down -1.3% this morning as I type in a big reversal for this time of day.  

Otherwise yesterday, there wasn’t much data, although a few releases from the US were generally positive. For example, the ADP’s weekly report of private payrolls showed a healthy increase of 35,750 per week in the four weeks ending May 9. Then shortly after, we also found out that the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index was up to a 4-year high of 13 in May (vs. 4 expected). So overall, the numbers cemented the picture of ongoing resilience in the US economy.  

Looking at the day ahead, and US data releases include the PCE inflation for April, weekly initial jobless claims, and the second estimate of Q1 GDP, Otherwise, Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Lane, Cipollone and Schnabel, the Fed’s Williams, Musalem and Barkin, and the BoE’s Breeden. We’ll also get the ECB’s account of their April meeting.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 08:14

FBI Arrests CIA Official With $40 Million in Gold Bars, $2 Million In Cash Stashed in His Home

In what may be the most bizarre story of the week, if not all of 2026, the NYTimes reports that a senior CIA official was arrested last week after investigators found hundreds of gold bars worth over $40 million stashed in his Virginia residence, a non-fiat fortune that he apparently brought home from work, according to court papers.

The CIA official, David Rush, is being held in jail while he awaits a detention hearing in the coming days on charges of stealing public money by filling out fraudulent time sheets. But, as the NYT admits, the charging documents filed in Alexandria, Va., still leave a lot unanswered about his recent conduct.

The only formal charge lodged against Rush is that he inflated his academic credentials and obtained military leave pay worth tens of thousands of dollars. The authorities say he falsely claimed to be a member of the Navy Reserve when he was discharged.

In a 2009 application for a government position for which he was subsequently hired, Rush allegedly lied about obtaining a bachelor's degree from Clemson University and a master's degree from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, according to the affidavit. The investigation revealed that Rush never attended or obtained a degree from either institution, according to the affidavit. 

The court papers describe Rush as a “former senior executive service-level employee at a United States government agency.” According to NYT sources, he until very recently held a senior position at the CIA.

In a joint statement, the CIA and FBI said the arrest occurred on May 19, after the agency alerted the bureau.

“After a C.I.A. internal investigation identified potential violations of the law, C.I.A. Director John Ratcliffe referred the information to the F.B.I. for a law enforcement investigation,” the statement said.

From last November to March, the court papers say, Rush asked for, and received, “a significant quantity of foreign currency and tens of millions of dollars in gold bars for work-related expenses.”

When the CIA conducted a review of where the gold and currency were stashed, the agency was “unable to locate the gold bars or significant amounts of the foreign currency,” according to court papers.

On May 18, FBI agents searched Rush’s home and found “approximately 303 gold bars, each of which weighed approximately one kilogram,” according to an affidavit. Based on the price of gold, the affidavit said, the estimated value of the gold exceeded $40 million. Investigators also seized nearly three dozen luxury watches, many of them Rolexes.

The affidavit also claims that Rush lied about his military credentials while applying to enter the senior executive service level ranks and committed "timecard fraud" regarding military leave. He allegedly claimed 744 hours of military leave, resulting in $77,000 in compensation, since being honorably discharged from the Navy in 2015, according to the affidavit.

The biggest question of all remains unanswered: the court papers do not indicate why Rush appears to have kept so much gold, and $2 million in U.S. currency, not to mention 35 Rolexes in his home, or what work project would have required him to amass such wealth.

Below is the full charging affidavit from the criminal case (1:2026mj00177 USA vs Rush, Virginia Eastern Court).

David Rush Affidavit by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 07:55

UK Targets Kremlin-Linked Crypto Network In Latest Sanctions Round

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The United Kingdom has unveiled a fresh package of sanctions against Russian financial structures that use crypto and offshore payment routes to sidestep restrictions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. 

The measures focus on the Kremlin-backed A7 network, a ruble-based settlement system, and a cluster of exchanges and firms that route payments through Kyrgyzstan and Georgia.

Announced by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, the package covers 18 new designations that target what London describes as the backbone of Russia’s illicit finance channels. 

Officials say the list includes a Kyrgyz bank suspected of handling A7 flows, a major global cryptocurrency exchange that has sent more than 1.5 billion dollars to entities close to the Kremlin, and three Georgian companies that run Russia-focused trading platforms.

The A7 network has emerged as a central hub in Russia’s attempts to blunt the impact of Western sanctions on its war economy. Investigations by independent researchers describe A7 as a cross-border settlement platform that uses a ruble-backed token, branded A7A5, and links to Promsvyazbank, a state lender that supports the Russian defense sector.

According to the UK government, A7 claims to have moved more than 90 billion dollars during the past year, a sum that officials say approaches half of Russia’s annual military spending. 

Separate journalistic probes have found that A7-connected wallets and entities handle a significant share of cross-border transfers for sanctioned oligarchs and state-linked businesses.

The crackdown lands at a moment when Russia’s own forecasts show a weaker outlook for growth under sanctions pressure. This month the Economy Ministry cut its 2026 growth projection to 0.4 percent from 1.3 percent and reduced the estimate for 2027 from 2.8 percent to 1.4 percent, an admission that extended war spending and trade limits weigh on expansion.

Crypto is replacing bank links for Russia

Western authorities and crypto analytics firms have flagged crypto as a key tool in Russia’s effort to replace severed bank links. Research into related platforms such as A7A5 and exchanges that serve Russian users has traced billions of dollars in stablecoin and token flows that bypass traditional banking checks, much of it through venues in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

Cooper framed the new sanctions as part of a broader drive to hit the financial lifelines of Moscow’s war machine and close off safe havens for enablers of the invasion. She said the UK would keep working with allies to expose, disrupt and dismantle the structures that move money and goods for Russian forces.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Britain has sanctioned more than 3,300 individuals, companies and vessels linked to the Kremlin, from banks and energy giants to defense suppliers.

The government estimates that international sanctions have stripped more than 450 billion dollars from Russia’s economy, a loss equal to an estimated two years of funding for its war against Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 07:45

Drone Stocks Erupt After Report Of Pentagon Funding Deals

President Trump's war economy is accelerating, with a new report indicating that the Department of War is set to unleash funding deals across a handful of drone companies. The effort comes as the DoW's procurement program now favors startups, and there has been an emphasis within the department on ramping up America's drone manufacturing base, as hyper-innovation from the war in Ukraine has brought forward 2030s-era war technology.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the DoW has been in talks with a group of drone startups and suppliers, including Performance Drone Works, Unusual Machines, and Neros Technologies, about potential funding packages that could include debt, conditional loans, and possible equity stakes.

The financing would not be used to purchase batches of suicide drones directly. Instead, the plan is to expand domestic manufacturing capacity, lower unit costs, and help these war-unicorn startups ramp up production ahead of a major stockpiling effort by the DoW.

The DoW's $1.1 billion Drone Dominance initiative aims to stockpile 300,000 low-cost attack drones by the end of 2027 at a unit price of less than $5,000.

The WSJ's report sent drone-related firms soaring in premarket trading, with Unusual Machines soaring 33%, Red Cat up 13%, AeroVironment up 8%, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions up 8.4%, and Airo Group up 2.9%.

None of this should be surprising to readers, as we've detailed the Trump team's playbook with the DoW to reset procurement programs, funneling funding into defense startups while building out production lines for low-cost war machines, such as drones and robots.

We identified Axon, which plans to import Ukrainian war tech into the US to build up US stockpiles faster.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is becoming a drone manufacturing hub for allied forces that stretch across Eurasia.

Let's remind readers of our forward-looking theme published in January. 31: 

• "Explosion In AI Data Center Buildouts Will Demand Next-Gen Counter-Drone Security"

Then, after a couple of data centers in the Gulf area were hit by Iranian attack drones, we note:

• "Micro AI Sentry Guns May Be Next Layer Of Defense For Data Centers Against Kamikaze Drones"

Beyond one-way attack drones and interceptor drones, we suspect counter-drone threat systems, such as passive acoustic detection, will become popular in the US because there is a missing layer of air defense around critical infrastructure, from power grids to data centers.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 07:20

Home Refi Activity Plummets As Mortgage Rates Hit 9-Month Highs

Refinancing activity in the U.S. housing market plummeted last week as mortgage rates hit their highest level in nine months, new industry data released on May 27 show.

Refinancing decreased by 18 percent for the week ending May 22 and is up by 19 percent from the same time a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“Many borrowers understandably backed away from refinancing last week,” Joel Kan, the firm’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement.

The decline was largely driven by the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rising by 30 basis points over the past five weeks to 6.65 percent - the highest level since August 2025.

As Andrew Moran reports for The Epoch Times, activity to refinance home loans was spread across the board. Conventional refinance applications fell by 14 percent, Federal Housing Agency applications dropped 18 percent, and Veterans’ Affairs applications tumbled 34 percent.

Overall, refinance loans accounted for 38 percent of all mortgage applications, the smallest share in nearly a year.

But purchase applications also slipped from the previous week, sliding by almost 9 percent.

“Purchase applications were slightly lower across all loan types but still ran at a stronger pace than last year’s pace,” Kan said.

“The average loan size for a purchase application reached another survey high at $473,600, as borrowers with smaller loan sizes were less active given the higher rate environment and its negative impact on their purchasing power.”

Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported on May 26 that single-family home prices backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 0.1 percent in March, up from a downwardly revised 0.1 percent drop in February.

‘Sensitive to Headlines’

Mortgage rates, which generally track long-dated U.S. Treasury yields, have accelerated since the war in Iran began in late February, driven by renewed war-driven inflation risks.

The main benchmark 10-year yield reached a one-year high of 4.66 percent last week. The 30-year climbed to 5.18 percent, its highest level since the global financial crisis.

Modest relief could be on the way amid increasing optimism that the United States and Iran are inching closer to establishing a peace deal.

Yields have eased by approximately 20 basis points over the past week, translating into lower rates for homeowners and prospective homebuyers.

As of May 27, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped to 6.61 percent, but the gap between current rates and the effective (aggregate) rates that Americans are currently carrying on their homes remains vast...

How long this trend lasts depends on what happens between Washington and Tehran, says Jeff DerGurahian, head economist at loanDepot.

“But with geopolitical tensions still front and center and inflation expectations starting to pick back up, the outlook remains uncertain,” DerGurahian said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

“Until there’s more clarity, rates are likely to stay sensitive to headlines, with the direction from here tied closely to how events unfold overseas.”

Inflation data could also play a role in both the broader financial markets and monetary policy.

A de-escalation in the three-month-old Middle East conflict could help mitigate medium- and long-term inflation pressures. But the length of persistent inflation could hang over the Federal Reserve.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the White House in Washington on May 22, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Traders have recently made an interest rate hike over the next year their base case scenario.

The 2-year yield, which follows expectations for Fed policy, remains above 4 percent. Futures market data suggest a quarter-point increase in March.

Market watchers, however, say the criteria for following through on a rate hike are high.

“From a policy standpoint, the expectation is that the Fed will likely stay on hold for a while,” DerGurahian said.

“The bigger question is how inflation plays out over the next few months, especially if higher energy prices start to show up more broadly across the economy.”

May’s annual consumer inflation rate is expected to reach 4.2 percent, according to the Cleveland Fed Nowcasting Model. If accurate, it would be the highest level of inflation since May 2023.

Ignoring Interest Rates

Despite President Donald Trump’s calls for lower interest rates to support his economic agenda, the data suggest the economy has been indifferent to elevated rates.

Recent growth has been fueled by consumer spending and business investment, mainly artificial intelligence-driven capital expenditures.

Even with markets pricing in higher rates, capex spending plans continue to be adjusted higher.

“It doesn’t matter what the Fed does. There is FOMO [fear of missing out] among hyperscalers, and AI spending is not sensitive to higher interest rates,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said in an emailed note to The Epoch Times.

“In fact, despite the move higher in rates in recent months, the consensus forecast for capex in 2027 continues to rise.”

If Fed officials tighten policy, it might combat inflation but do little to harm the growth prospects.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 06:55

The Fragile Balance Between Compassion And Civilization

Authored by Armstrong Williams via The Epoch Times,

What is unfolding across parts of Europe, particularly in the UK under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, should serve as a warning to every Western democracy wrestling with questions of immigration, national identity, social cohesion, and the limits of political tolerance.

A nation can be compassionate without becoming careless. It can welcome newcomers while still expecting assimilation, civic responsibility, and respect for the laws and traditions that hold a society together. But when governments become so consumed with appearing morally virtuous that they neglect order, border enforcement, public safety, and cultural confidence, the social fabric eventually begins to fray.

Across Europe, many citizens increasingly feel that they are watching this happen in real time.

Businesses struggle under layers of regulation and insecurity. Historic neighborhoods in cities such as London, Paris, Brussels, and parts of Germany face growing tensions between communities living side by side but not necessarily living together. In too many places, political leaders have become hesitant to speak honestly about integration failures for fear of being labeled intolerant or divisive. Yet avoiding difficult conversations does not eliminate problems; it merely delays them until frustration hardens into anger.

This is why political movements once considered fringe are now gaining traction throughout Europe. Voters are not simply reacting to economics. They are reacting to a deeper fear that their nations are losing coherence, confidence, and cultural continuity. People want safe streets. They want functioning schools. They want borders that mean something. They want governments willing to defend the rule of law consistently and unapologetically.

And Americans should understand clearly why this debate resonates so strongly at home.

Many believe that the United States would have headed down a similar path had Vice President Kamala Harris been elected president and continued the policies of the previous administration. Whether one agrees with that assessment or not, the concern itself reflects a growing anxiety felt across the Western world: that governments have become more focused on symbolic compassion than sustainable governance.

But this conversation must be approached with moral clarity and balance.

Immigration itself is not the enemy. In fact, immigration has been one of the great strengths of both America and many European nations for centuries. The United States remains history’s greatest example of people from vastly different backgrounds building a common national identity rooted in shared civic values rather than bloodlines or ethnicity.

However, the key word is assimilation.

Successful societies require more than diversity. They require unity of purpose. They require a shared language of civic responsibility, mutual respect, constitutional order, and national loyalty. People can absolutely preserve the beauty of their cultural traditions, religious practices, cuisine, music, and family customs while still embracing the values and identity of the country they are joining.

America succeeded for generations because millions of immigrants came not merely seeking economic opportunity but seeking to become Americans.

That distinction matters enormously.

Previous generations of immigrants often viewed assimilation as a source of pride rather than oppression. Italian, Irish, Jewish, Korean, Indian, Vietnamese, Nigerian, Cuban, and countless other communities maintained elements of their heritage while simultaneously embracing the broader American civic culture. Their children attended U.S. schools, learned English, served in the military, opened businesses, participated in civic life, and gradually became woven into the national fabric.

And importantly, this process continues to endure successfully in many places today.

One can look across countless immigrant communities throughout the United States where assimilation and cultural pride coexist beautifully. Indian American families dominating medicine, engineering, and entrepreneurship while maintaining strong family traditions. Nigerian immigrants excelling academically and professionally while contributing deeply to churches, local businesses, and civic institutions. Hispanic immigrants serving in law enforcement, the armed forces, and small-business ownership while maintaining rich linguistic and cultural traditions. Asian American communities revitalizing neighborhoods, building thriving schools, and producing some of the highest educational outcomes in the country.

These examples remind us that assimilation does not require cultural erasure. It requires civic alignment.

The problem emerges when political leaders encourage fragmentation over integration when multiculturalism evolves into parallel societies separated by language, values, expectations, and allegiance. A nation cannot endure indefinitely if large groups increasingly identify more with grievance, tribalism, or foreign conflicts than with the country they now call home.

Europe is confronting this tension directly.

In parts of the UK, France, Belgium, and Sweden, leaders are now facing difficult questions about whether integration policies failed to create a strong enough shared national identity. Rising crime, anti-Semitism, extremist ideologies, gang violence, and social unrest have intensified concerns among ordinary citizens who feel dismissed whenever they raise legitimate worries about assimilation, public safety, or cultural cohesion.

Yet this issue must never become an excuse for hatred or blanket condemnation of immigrants themselves. That would betray the very values Western civilization claims to defend. The overwhelming majority of immigrants come seeking peace, opportunity, safety, and dignity for their families. Most are hardworking, law-abiding, and deeply patriotic toward the nations that welcomed them.

But nations also have the right—indeed, the obligation—to expect those entering legally to respect the law, contribute productively, learn the culture, and embrace the civic values of their adopted homeland.

Without that expectation, societies eventually lose the trust and shared identity necessary for democracy itself to function.

History repeatedly teaches the same lesson. Civilizations rarely collapse overnight from external invasion alone. More often, they weaken gradually from within through cultural uncertainty, institutional decay, leadership paralysis, declining civic confidence, and an unwillingness to defend the principles that created stability in the first place.

The challenge facing the West today is not whether immigration should exist. Immigration will always exist. The real question is whether leaders still possess the wisdom and courage to preserve social cohesion while remaining humane, lawful, and fair.

Because compassion without order eventually produces chaos.

And order without compassion eventually produces cruelty.

Great nations require the discipline and maturity to uphold both simultaneously.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 06:30

Solar Stocks Flash Major Technical Breakout As Tariff Talk Escalates

Solar stocks are showing a clear technical shift, breaking above a well-defined downtrend after more than five years of sustained pressure.

UBS analyst Catherine Gordon is attributing the surge in solar stocks to falling yields and renewed policy momentum. A potential Section 232 tariff announcement in mid-to-late June is adding fuel to the rally, with First Solar leading the charge.

The UBS Solar basket (UBXXSOL) is now up 40% year-to-date.

Gordon provided more context on what's powering UBXXSOL higher:

Clean tech names are outperforming again on Tuesday, with solar leading higher alongside more speculative growth baskets as yields move lower. The backdrop has been broadly supportive, with the UBS Solar basket (UBXXSOL) now up 33% MTD.

First Solar is the standout mover, with the stock trading around $268 and continuing to rally in anticipation of a potential Section 232 tariff announcement in the near term. Earlier today, Windham hosted Toyo Solar on a call, where the company indicated that mid‑ to late‑June could be the timing for Section 232, with measures potentially including a minimum import price alongside tariffs. There is also scope for domestic manufacturing investments to be used as an offset to tariff liability.

The prevailing dynamic has been "buy the rumor and buy the news," with momentum building into the expected policy update. Beyond S232, the next key catalyst for First Solar (FSLR) is likely to be order commentary on 2Q earnings calls.

Elsewhere, sentiment remains constructive across parts of the solar complex, with Nextracker (NXT) still viewed as a core holding. On the residential side, there have been questions around the sharp moves in SolarEdge (SEDG) and Enphase Energy (ENPH). Enphase's recent announcement around a solid‑state transformer appears to have driven a short squeeze. However, this is not viewed as a differentiated development, with multiple electrical equipment players — including Schneider Electric and ABB — already pursuing similar technologies. Against that backdrop, the residential rally looks vulnerable to fading.

Last month, Goldman analyst Brian Lee told clients that "Utility-scale demand remains resilient amid pricing volatility, while residential stays challenged but with cleaner channel conditions." Professional subscribers can read the full GS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 05:45

NATO 3.0: Report Details 'Fundamental Restructuring' Of US Commitments

Via The Cradle

The US is moving forward with a "fundamental restructuring" of its commitments to European security, transitioning from the traditional "burden sharing" strategy to that of "burden shifting," according to a Der Spiegel report published on May 26.

Under the new vision dubbed "NATO 3.0," Washington expects European allies to assume responsibility for the continent’s entire conventional defense.

Source: Dunya

In this new framework, the US will primarily provide a nuclear deterrent rather than the broad military support it has historically guaranteed.

This transition, which the report notes has blindsided European officials, involves drastic reductions in US military assets previously committed to the "NATO Force Model."

Alexander Velez-Green, an envoy to US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, recently informed allies that Washington intends to cut its contribution of fighter jets by one-third and significantly reduce the number of strategic bombers, navy destroyers, and aerial refueling aircraft. 

The report notes that the US plans to stop providing submarines to the NATO pool entirely and expects Europeans to supply their own reconnaissance and armed drones.

The primary driver for this withdrawal is the US military’s pivot toward the Asia-Pacific, though officials also cited the need for flexibility to commit assets to military campaigns in West Asia and the Western Hemisphere. 

Washington reportedly seeks to prepare for a potential "two-front conflict," noting that US intelligence identifies 2027 as the "key date" when China may be capable of launching an offensive against Taiwan.

Given the possibility, the US no longer wishes to have its key assets “tied up” by fixed NATO commitments.

The report highlights an intensely fast-paced transition, with the US demanding that European allies present specific offers to fill these newly created military gaps by early June, aiming to formalize the new model at the July summit in Ankara.

While NATO leadership officially portrays the move as a way to reduce “over-dependence” on the US, European diplomats find the requirements far more severe than anticipated, with European leaders reportedly stunned by the scale and speed of the requirements. In secret meetings, some representatives even interpreted the US insistence on rapid compliance as an "indirect threat" toward those who fail to act quickly.

In line with the new “burden shifting,” US President Donald Trump announced on May 22 that he would send an additional 5,000 troops to Poland – a move reportedly driven by his personal relationship with and endorsement of Polish President Karol Nawrocki. 

❗️Reuters reports NATO is forming 3 divisions with 60,000 troops and strengthening rapid deployment systems on its eastern flank. The plan focuses on reinforcing the Baltic region, including Estonia and Latvia, while raising readiness for rapid response to potential threats from…

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) May 26, 2026

This decision has "stirred confusion" within the Pentagon, as it contradicts earlier orders to reduce the US military presence in Europe, such as the planned withdrawal of over 5,000 soldiers from Germany.

While Polish leadership welcomed the surge, US defense officials and diplomats have criticized the shift as impulsive, noting that it creates a sense of strategic inconsistency just as the US prepares to brief NATO allies on its future military footprint. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 05:00

The Gen Z Workforce In The UK Is Demanding Less Alcohol At Company Socials

For years, workplace culture has revolved around one thing: drinks after work. But Gen Z in the UK is starting to push back — and companies are beginning to notice, according to a new study from Diamond Interiors.

The study says that a growing number of younger employees say they would rather skip alcohol-focused work socials altogether. In a recent survey of Gen Z office workers, half said they preferred social events that don’t centre around drinking. It’s a small detail on the surface, but it reflects a much wider shift in how the next generation views work and workplace culture.

Don't tell the banking industry in London, that's for sure...

For previous generations, bonding with colleagues often meant pub trips, networking over cocktails, or team nights out that stretched late into the evening. Gen Z workers, however, are drinking less overall and are more likely to prioritise wellness, mental health, fitness, and financial stability. For many, alcohol simply isn’t as central to social life as it once was.

There’s also a stronger focus on inclusivity. Younger workers are more aware that not everyone wants — or can afford — to participate in drinking culture. A work social built around alcohol can feel limiting rather than welcoming.

That doesn’t mean Gen Z is rejecting workplace friendships. In fact, many still value strong team relationships. They just prefer different environments: coffee catchups, team lunches, fitness classes, volunteering events, or activities that don’t come with pressure to drink.

The change fits into a broader pattern across the workforce. Gen Z employees are questioning long-standing workplace norms, from strict office hours to rigid management styles. Many are less interested in “office culture” for the sake of appearances and more focused on balance, comfort, and genuine connection.

For employers, the message is clear. The old model of workplace bonding won’t disappear overnight, but it no longer works for everyone. Companies that rethink social culture — and offer more flexible, inclusive ways for employees to connect — may find it easier to attract and keep younger talent.

In other words, Gen Z isn’t ending workplace socializing in the UK. They’re just redefining what it looks like.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 04:15

EU Emissions Trading Expansion And The Pressure On German Aviation Industry

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Germany’s leading airline Lufthansa is closing its regional subsidiary CityLine, while low-cost carrier Ryanair is scaling back its Germany operations. Airport locations are under increasing pressure, with tens of thousands of jobs at stake. And how does politics respond to this veritable crisis? Naturally, with further levies.

In this case, it was the EU Commission that came forward with the proposal to extend the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) to international flights departing from Europe. Another new charge, wonderful. And this in the midst of the most severe recession since the post-war period.

The regulation could take effect from 1 January 2027, should the relevant institutions and national legislators adopt it. The motivation to push this process forward efficiently and with minimal bureaucracy is clearly present, as at least €11 billion, and possibly up to €13 billion, in tax revenue is at stake. What is rarely discussed: a small portion of this additional revenue is expected to remain in Brussels – another covert step by the EU Commission under Ursula von der Leyen toward fiscal autonomy.

From the perspective of Brussels and Berlin policymakers, there is a positive side effect: alongside the fiscal dimension, they would also move closer to their ideological goal of gradually immobilising European citizens – a key component of the economic “death agenda” of the Green Deal.

As a European taxpayer, one has become accustomed to absorbing such measures. Few now expect anything other than new taxes and increasingly granular regulation from the labyrinthine EU apparatus. Brussels no longer makes any secret of its shift toward implementing degrowth ideology through an unprecedented tax drive. This occurs at a time when hundreds of thousands in Germany alone lose their jobs every year – while politicians beyond the so-called firewall are thriving on taxation policy.

So far, media camouflage has worked: politics floods the public sphere with a pseudo-debate about relief for citizens, only to simultaneously increase the tax burden elsewhere. The best example is the so-called fuel discount – a temporary reduction of a levy financed by permanent increases elsewhere, as it is often phrased. It is perverse: politics now treats taxpayers’ money as self-evident, as mere disposable mass for the political class. This smells of feudalism and has little to do with the idea of the sovereign citizen.

Consequently, travel itself is increasingly seen in these circles as objectionable, as an act of presumptuous freedom. The citizen’s scope for action must be restricted, their existence in an eco-dystopia effectively managed. It is therefore logical that travel is to become significantly more expensive. An extension of the CO₂ regime to international flight tickets would increase prices by up to 15 percent in the first year. Combined with annual price increases due to the shrinking supply of CO₂ certificates, foreign travel would soon become a luxury.

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary is one of the few well-known executives openly resisting European degrowth policy. His company has reduced its presence in Germany by around 40–50 percent in recent years and cut numerous routes – affecting airports such as Frankfurt-Hahn, Weeze, Berlin, and Hamburg. Too expensive, too heavily regulated, and increasingly hostile to business – O’Leary is saying what virtually every company leader, CEO, and SME operator not dependent on green subsidies would say daily.

German policy in particular extracts a significant share of domestic air travel costs, up to around 60 percent of ticket prices. Whether VAT, CO₂ charges, or airport fees – operations are becoming increasingly unprofitable, and passengers are being pushed toward rail as an alternative. This policy has consequences: since the lockdown shock six years ago, domestic air traffic has not recovered and remains about 50 percent below 2019 levels. Numerous airport locations have come under pressure and thousands of jobs have been cut.

It is difficult to estimate precisely, but direct and indirect job losses in Germany’s aviation sector since 2019 likely amount to up to 50,000 positions. Lufthansa alone has cut more than 10,000, Airbus over 5,000 jobs in Germany.

The campaign by German policymakers against successful airlines like Ryanair, which are being systematically pushed abroad, fits into the broader pattern of the current governing coalition. A hostile, ideologically charged regulatory and tax policy is a continuation of the strategy of the “traffic light” coalition, intensified by the economic hammer of CO₂ taxation, increasingly used to eliminate undesirable industrial sectors.

We should not fool ourselves: the relentless struggle of eco-socialists against the free economy – and thus above all against industry, which must be understood as the indispensable productive foundation of our society – is now becoming visible, as EU climate policy becomes increasingly isolated globally.

Ironically, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) itself has dismantled the apocalyptic narrative of a burning planet that was persistently constructed over decades. This renders Brussels’ and Berlin’s nihilistic climate policy absurd – a fact largely drowned out in the overheated media noise. In the “Gaulish village” of German world-savers, an intellectual and ideological ice age still prevails.

* * *

About the author:  Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 03:30

Futures, Bonds Tumble, Oil Surges After Middle East Attacks Resume Summary

• Equity Futures Tumble, Oil Surges On Fresh Middle East Strikes 
• US forces carried out airstrikes on an Iranian military site and imposed new sanctions to prevent Tehran from profiting from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran targeted the American airbase from which the attack originated, according to a Tasnim report, which cited the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Kuwait also said it’s responding to hostile missile and drone threats
• New US strikes in Iran reported, after Iranian drone intercepts in Hormuz area.
• Trump red line (PBS): "No, no, not at all. Not sanctions relief, no" - unless Iran gives up its enriched uranium. "Iran negotiating on fumes," Trump says in cabinet meeting.
• White House rejects 'complete fabrication' of Iranian TV reporting on MOU and draft deal status.
• IRGC keeping up the rhetoric: warns that Iran would "turn the area from Chabahar to Mahshahr into a graveyard for aggressors" if the ceasefire collapses.
• CENTCOM: "Clearly the Iranians are trying to hedge their bets here and put more pressure on the US."
• Iranian president: "The main battleground today is the economic war."
• Tabriz International Airport in northwestern Iran- which sustained heavy damage from airstrikes during the peak of the aerial bombings - is officially operational again, bringing restored airports to 20 reopened.

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 50% · No 51%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

 

Equity Futures Tumble, Oil Surges On Fresh Middle East Strikes

Stocks and bonds fell while oil surged after fresh attacks in the Middle East returned amid conflicting signals from the US and Iran on a deal to end the war.  The MSCI All Country World Index, the broadest measure of global equities, retreated from a record high and dropped 0.4%. A gauge of Asian shares slumped 1.7%. Futures for the S&P 500 slumped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 retreated 0.8%, while contracts for European stocks also pointed to a weaker open. Brent surged to $98 while WTI also traded almost $3 higher above $92 on the news.

The escalation started after US forces carried out airstrikes on an Iranian military site and imposed new sanctions to prevent Tehran from profiting from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

In response, Iran targeted the American airbase from which the attack originated, according to a Tasnim report, which cited the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 

Adding to the tensions, Kuwait said it was responding to hostile missile and drone threats. The nation’s army said in a social media post that “any explosions that may be heard are the result of air defense systems intercepting hostile targets.”

An American official described the attacks as defensive, saying the US intends to maintain the ceasefire that began last month. The official said US Central Command forces had shot down a quartet of one-way Iranian attack drones that were fired at a commercial ship and also struck another Iranian drone-launching unit in Bandar Abbas, near the strait.

The dollar strengthened for a third consecutive day, while gold fell 1.5% to below $4,400 an ounce. Treasuries dropped as higher oil prices stoked inflation concerns, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year climbing four basis points to about 4.53%. 

Earlier, the US Treasury said it took action against Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, accusing it of launching a new attempt “to monetize its campaign of state-sponsored terror by extorting vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”

*  *  *

Fresh US Strikes on Iran amid Deal Stalemate

There are reports of new late night/early morning (local time) military strikes by the US over Iran. The US military carried out new strikes inside Iran after intercepting multiple Iranian drones, according to Reuters. An American official said the targeted Iranian military site was assessed to pose a threat to both American forces and commercial shipping operating near the Strait of Hormuz.

Reuters further reported that the intercepted drones had been launched from Iran, marking another escalation in tensions as Washington moves to counter perceived threats to regional maritime traffic and its military presence.

Just prior to this confirmation, CNN described mystery explosions along Iran's coast:

Three explosions were heard to the east of Bandar Abbas, a strategic Iranian port city and naval base near the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported in the early hours of Thursday.

The blasts were reported at around 1:30 a.m. local time and caused the air defense systems of Bandar Abbas to be briefly activated, according to Fars, a media outlet with links to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

This suggests things could return to full-blown military conflict once again, though the rhetoric from either side has been restrained, and at times even optimistic that a final deal could still be achieved.

More from Trump Cabinet Meeting

The president has said that under a framework deal, the Straight of Hormuz would open immediately; however, the Iranians are now insisting the IRGC has control of the vital oil transit waterway. Below is a short round-up of some of the more interesting latest statements from Trump, during a televised cabinet meeting at the White House.

• TRUMP: STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL BE OPEN TO EVERYBODY
• TRUMP: WE'LL WATCH OVER STRAIT OF HORMUZ
• TRUMP: OMAN WILL BEHAVE OR WE'LL HAVE TO BLOW THEM UP
• TRUMP ON IRAN: WHEN THEY BEHAVE WE'LL LET THEM HAVE THEIR MONEY

Trump Red Line

President Trump has reasserted his 'red line' for negotiations, centered on enriched uranium and the nuclear issue:

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Iran would not get sanctions relief in exchange for giving up their highly enriched uranium. His comments come as the United States and Iran try to strike a deal to end the conflict that has engulfed the Middle East for the last three months.

"No, no, not at all. Not sanctions relief, no," Trump told PBS News during a short phone call when asked if the current deal would mean that Iran would give up their highly enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief.

Trump also in a televised Wednesday afternoon cabinet meeting said Iran is "intent on a deal" but that "Iran is negotiating on fumes."

White House Rejects 'Complete Fabrication' Of Iran TV MOU Contents

The Trump administration has denied the morning Iranian state media reports on the contents of a current 'Memorandum of Understanding' (MOU) - which curiously had left out any reference whatsoever to the fate of Iran's enriched uranium...

• WHITE HOUSE: NOBODY SHOULD BELIEVE IRAN STATE MEDIA REPORTING
• WHITE HOUSE CALLS REPORTED IRAN MOU A 'COMPLETE FABRICATION'

An official underscored that it is a "complete fabrication" - and so it seems we are yet again back at square one, as Tehran has also said it is only engaged in 'indirect' contact with Washington at this point. There are further reports in US media that the Pentagon has drawn up a new target list, and has acknowledged that the Iranians have been able to better hide their missile launch sites. 

Also emerging are ambiguous reports of some kind of potential explosion incident at a petrochemical complex at Asaluyeh, in Iran's Bushehr province.

US side denounces Iranian state media reporting on current MOU draft and status:

This report from Iranian controlled media is not true and the MOU they “released” is a complete fabrication. Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out. FACTS MATTER. https://t.co/agpTnBSgKu

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 27, 2026 Oil Dumps on MOU Headlines

As for the status of talks, the below headlines present the latest (and noticeably absent is the enriched uranium question, or release of Iranian funds). Bloomberg summarizes: "An unofficial draft of a US-Iran interim peace deal says maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal within a month of the agreement being finalized, according to Iranian state television.
It’s unclear how recent the draft, reported by IRIB News, is or whether the US has agreed to the terms."

• Iran's state TV says it has a draft of the initial unofficial framework for MOU with US
• According to draft MOU US military forces will withdraw from vicinity of Iran and lift naval blockade
• Iran's state TV says in return, Iran has committed to restoring the number of commercial transit ships through Hormuz Strait to pre-war levels within one month
• Iran's state TV says military vessels are not included in this draft agreement
• Iran's state TV: A final agreement will be approved as a binding UN Security Council resolution if reached in 60 days.
• The Islamabad memorandum framework is still in progress, stating no action will be taken by Iran without "tangible verification."
• If a final deal is reached within 60 days, this agreement will be approved in the form of a binding UN Security Council resolution.
• The management and route of ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz will be handled by Iran in cooperation with Oman.

Oil dumping on the headlines:

As usual, there remains a basis for skepticism:

White House (more or less) denies accuracy of reported draft MOU with Iran.

We all should be far more skeptical of any alleged deal details disclosed. https://t.co/Umrpm3iKE6

— Caitlin Doornbos (@CaitlinDoornbos) May 27, 2026 Iran Vows 'Graveyard For Aggressors' amid 'Indirect' US Contacts

Tehran is keeping the war rhetoric cranked to a maximum, but is also conceding that a return to full-scale war with the United States and Israel is 'unlikely' at this stage. The Islamic Republic says at this moment only 'indirect' contact with Washington is happening, as cited in Bloomberg.

The IRGC is seeking to dismantle any assumption that Iran is entering peace talks from a position of tactical submission. Speaking to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, Mohammad Akbarzadeh - the political deputy of the IRGC Navy - warned that any resumption of US kinetic activity would result in catastrophic casualties for Western forces.

Akbarzadeh touted that the armed forces remain at a level of total readiness, threatening that Iran would "turn the area from Chabahar to Mahshahr into a graveyard for aggressors" if the ceasefire collapses. "Our fighters today carry in their chests the urge for hand-to-hand battle with the enemy," Akbarzadeh declared, writing off the prospect of a renewed Western assault due to what he assessed as the "weakness" of the American-led coalition.

Pentagon: Iran 'Hedging its Bets' in Hormuz Strait

The Pentagon has acknowledged that Iran is 'hedging its bets' amid Hormuz tensions:

Former CENTCOM Commander Gen. Joseph Votel said Iran’s reported effort to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz suggests Tehran is “hedging its bets” and attempting to ramp up pressure on the U.S. amid ongoing negotiations.

“Clearly the Iranians are trying to hedge their bets here and put more pressure on the U.S., and what we saw here was CENTCOM detecting that and then taking military action to address it very, very quickly,” Votel said during a Tuesday appearance on Fox News' “America Reports.”

Iranian source to DropSite:

“If the U.S. cannot give the money that belongs to Iran back to Iran, and the U.S. cannot put a leash on Netanyahu and stop him from going on a rampage in Lebanon, then it shows that this conflict has not ended,” Izadi says. “This is a test for Iran to see what’s going on with the other side.”

🎥 NEW: Jeremy Scahill reported this morning that Iranian officials say the U.S. has accepted Iran’s red lines in the latest revisions to the ceasefire declaration, but is asking for time to “manage domestic public opinion” before formally announcing acceptance of the interim… pic.twitter.com/Pmovw5sEKk

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 27, 2026 Enriched Uranium Not on the Agenda

And all the while Iranian leaders have continued to make clear they will not bow to the central Trump administration demand of transferring Iran's highly enriched uranium out of the country - though there were prior unconfirmed reports that China could be an acceptable destination for some Iranian officials.

Speaking from the sidelines of an international security conference in Moscow, Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, bluntly told Fars news agency: "This issue is not on the agenda of the negotiations."

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in fresh remarks is signaling that the conflict has simply migrated from an air and sea war to the global financial system.

Pezeshkian: Main Battleground Now the Economic War

Meeting with the Tehran Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday, Pezeshkian urged a structural overhaul of the country's domestic market, calling for an immediate expansion of the private sector to act as an economic shield.

"The main battleground today is the economic war," Pezeshkian stated, according to Tasnim. "We believe the more capable, agile, and active the private sector is, the stronger the country’s economic foundation will become, and the greater our national power will be in the face of external pressures and threats."

Pezeshkian framed the Western shift toward sanctions and capital starvation as an admission of military failure by Washington and its Israeli ally. "After failing to achieve its objectives on the military front, the enemy has focused on damaging the country’s economic resilience and disrupting the livelihoods of the people," the president added.

Indeed this is obviously what the US naval blockade on Iranian ports aims to accomplish, which Washington continuing to bet on some kind of mass anti-regime uprising, which has yet to materialize since the start of Operation Epic Fury.

20 Damaged Airports Across Country Reopened

To demonstrate its resolve and resiliency even while Washington tries to keep the economic chokehold on, Iranian civic workers continue to rebuild logistical infrastructure at rapid pace.

As the latest example, on Wednesday the Civil Aviation Organization announced that Tabriz International Airport in northwestern Iran- which sustained heavy damage from airstrikes during the peak of the aerial bombings - is officially operational again.

"The gateway to northwest Iran"...

According to public broadcaster IRIB, domestic technical teams managed to bypass supply chain bottlenecks to restore the facility to full service. "Tabriz Airport, which was attacked during the recent war, has now been restored to activity by Iranian specialists and will reopen on Wednesday," a spokesperson confirmed.

Tabriz joins a growing list of critical transit hubs rushing to normalize operations, according to Al Jazeera, while state media reports state that the total number of reopened airports across the country has now reached 20. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 03:24

Angela Merkel Receives EU "Order Of Merit" For Helping To Destroy Europe

The event passed with little fanfare in the international media.  The European Union held its first ever event to honor laureates of the European Order of Merit, meant to honor influential political and social figures who made significant contributions to the "integration" of the EU experiment.  

Out of the 20 nominees, 13 laureates attended the ceremony in the Parliament’s hemicycle in Strasbourg and addressed the Chamber, following their acceptance of the award from European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.  Among these attendees was former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Merkel wore the award with visible glee, then took to the podium to praise the European Union system.  She then called for further expansion of the EU bureaucracy's efforts to silence dissent on mass immigration by "regulating" (censoring) social media.  

🇩🇪🇪🇺Accepting the European Order of Merit, Merkel urged EU leaders to regulate speech on social media as the only way to save democracy

Reminder: she allowed mass immigration in Germany that increased crime, terror attacks, and helped buckle the economypic.twitter.com/HILXk1XqVu https://t.co/M1hdSm4IvB

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 23, 2026

Anti-immigration movements in the UK and EU are fast becoming political juggernauts, largely due to the rising crime and cultural erasure caused by the invasion of millions of third-world asylum seekers, many of them from Islamic nations.  The ideological and religious beliefs of these migrants is completely contrary to western values, which is causing social strife among native Europeans.

Not surprisingly, millions of Europeans are no longer willing to tolerate the death of western civilization.  Movements for remigration are growing exponentially, and EU globalists are scrambling to stop them, largely through online censorship and "hate speech" laws. 

Merkel played an integral role in the destruction of Europe when, in 2015, her government triggered an open borders bonanza.  Using the war in Syria as a foil, Germany, the UK and a handful of other governments pushed for Europeans to embrace a flood of millions of third-world asylum seekers in 2015.  

Initially, officials like Merkel claimed the process would be temporary and that the migrants were coming from war-torn regions.  This was a lie.  Instead, migrants poured into Germany under the expectation that they were going to gain access to European wealth, and they did, to some extent. 

Around 60% of German welfare recipients are migrants or the children of migrants.  The asylum seekers dug in like ticks and never left Europe.  Under the EU's border policies, once migrants entered one member nation they could then spread to any other member nation.  Germany demanded that the union share the burden of the millions of migrants seeking easy riches.  A large number of migrants were not from Syria, but exploited the asylum process anyway. 

Europeans were told that they were helping desperate families.  They were told that migrants were going to boost the EU economy and jump-start the labor pool.  They were told that migrants would integrate into western society and that multiculturalism was the future of the world. 

In reality, 55% to 65% of all migrants are single, military-age males.  Germany's economy (and most of the EU) is in steep decline.  Third world migrants are tribal and view Europeans as a population to be conquered.  Islamic migrants see the open borders event as a once in a lifetime opportunity to finally subjugate the west from the inside in what they often refer to as "stealth jihad".  Multiculturalism is now viewed as the bane of Europe as the region accelerates into collapse. 

Today, native Europeans are admonished as "xenophobic" for their opposition to open migration.  EU officials claim that the population flux is necessary to make up for colonialism, the wars in the Middle East, even man-made climate change (which does not exist).  In other words, Europeans are expected to feel shame for the success of the west. 

The celebration of leaders like Merkel is a celebration of sabotage.  It doesn't make much sense until one understands that the entire goal of multiculturalism is the destruction of western societies and their principles.  In the eyes of globalists, Merkel is truly a hero.    

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 02:45

Spare Me Another Pride Month!

Authored by Dave Summers via DailySceptic.org,

Are you aware? Really aware? Or are you like me, struggling to keep up with the blizzard of social and political awareness events that bring a rich texture to our lives?

Do you worry that you can’t recall if Black History Month – that time when I approach my BAME colleagues with even more reverence than usual – is in June or July? Are you confused as to whether Pride Month and LGBT History Month are the same or distinct entities? Have you kept pace with the latest incarnation of their life-affirming, multicoloured flag? Does your wife frown at you because Menstrual Hygiene Day has passed you by? Have you forgotten World Alzheimer’s Day again?

Then worry no more – help is finally at hand, in the shape of the Awareness Calendar, your one-stop source of those important dates that can be handily pinned to your fridge door.

The calendar, stuffed tighter than a drag queen’s corset, is a golden treasury of opportunities to remind yourself of those burning issues that might otherwise have easily slipped away in the busy working week.

Are you that loser who still carries your butty box around in a holed plaggy Co-op bag rather than one of the several ‘Bags For Life’ you have crammed into a kitchen cupboard? Plastic Bag Free Day on July 3rd has got you covered. Still hyperventilating about CFCs’ part in the destruction of the planet? Then the International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer on September 16th is your thing. Or perhaps you are racked with guilt by your mindless mowing down of a squirrel on your journey into work? If so, Animal Road Accident Awareness Day on 10th October ought to assuage (or heighten) your remorse. Perhaps you’re tormented by the knowledge that you once slurped through a single-use straw in 2015? World Refill Day on 16th June has you in its sights. Or maybe you’ve let yourself down again with incorrect pronoun etiquette? International Pronouns Day on 21st October is waiting to correct you.

Schools, colleges and, I suspect, many large institutions love this endless parade of themed months, days and observances, each demanding veneration and performative allyship. Black History Month is huge in my school, with each department being tasked to create displays that look to “celebrate the achievements, history and contributions of Black people”. In my leafy shire, largely untouched by the ‘diversity’ of urban centres (unless you include the burgeoning numbers of Hong Kong Chinese), this is a task that feels entirely performative and strange. Consequently, English display boards are adorned with the stately Maya Angelou who gazes down imperiously on the bemused in every classroom. The occasional working-class writer might have more resonance to some of our kids, but good luck finding an image of a D.H. Lawrence or Shelagh Delaney.

The English department can, however, ace Pride Month – there’s never been a shortage of gay wordsmiths throughout history. But pity the poor maths students who will discover that a single omnipresent image of Alan Turing does an awful lot of heavy lifting in their discipline.

I console myself with the thought that all this virtuous bluster is altruistic in origin, shining a light on overlooked issues.

But in reality, it’s catnip for middle managers desperate for something – anything – to put on their annual appraisal under ‘Diversity and Inclusion’.

Consequently, in its smothering ubiquity, it ends up diluting anything good into mere background noise.

When every day is somebody’s awareness day, none stand out.

A quiz to finish: how many of the following awareness days are real and how many the product of my fevered imagination?

• Winnie the Pooh Day

• World Hand Hygiene Day

• Gypsy Roma and Traveller History Month

• International Kissing Day

• World Town Planning Day

• International Talk Like a Pirate Day

Answer: They’re all real. Haharrrr, me hearties!

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 02:00

The Beautiful Multipolar New World Order

Authored by Iain Davis via Off-Guardian.org,

BRICS-based multipolarity will save us from The Technocratic Dark State by making the rollout of an oppressive global surveillance state much better.

This will be the result of “improving global governance.”

At least, that is according to the BRICS Outcome Document published by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs after the latest riveting meeting of BRICS foreign ministers.

Centralised global dictatorship will be a happier, fluffier kind of new world order tyranny under the BRICS’ multipolar model because it will be “more just, equitable, agile, effective, efficient, responsive, representative, legitimate, democratic and accountable.” Fantastic news, doubtless welcomed by those Hrvoje Morić refers to as the “Multipolaristas.”

Though the BRICS’ document reads like the worst kind of globalese dross imaginable, it is important to remember that the BRICS are offering us the promise of a “beautiful multi-polar world order defined by win-win cooperation.” Presumably, this is because humanity must have some sort of centralised, oligarch-led global dictatorship enslaving it for any of us to have a chance to “win.”

By all means, feel free to wade through the BRICS’ turgid propaganda (link above), but hopefully I’ve saved you the time.

The quotes I’m about to share really were collectively published by the BRICS foreign ministers—I haven’t made it up, though you may wish I had.

The BRICS are going to strengthen “multipolarity” by upholding the “Purposes and Principles of the Charter of the United Nations (UN) in their entirety.” The entire purpose the UN Charter is to centralise global political authority, primarily in the hands of the UN Security Council, over all nation states.

The brainchild of oligarchs, the UN is a public-private partnership where national governments are reduced to mere enabling partners whose task it is to enable multinational corporations to get whatever they want. Apparently, the imminent multipolar global dictatorship will be nicer when the BRICS “play a greater role” in telling everyone else what to do through the UN Security Council. Sounds enticing, I have to say.

The BRICS are fully committed to global technocracy—sorry, I mean sustainable development—but are a bit worried that “current global challenges are complex and interlinked” and that this globally interlinked complexity might “impede economic growth and sustainable development.”

The solution to this is, of course, to recognise the “contemporary realities of the multipolar world” and push ahead with more “equitable global governance.” This must be true because that’s exactly what the World Economic Forum wants, and who could argue with the WEF? Certainly not the BRICS’ foreign ministers, that’s for sure.

The BRICS ministers are also fretting about “peace and security.” Seeing as Iran is a BRICS member state that was just attacked by the US and Israeli governments for no immediately apparent reason, you might think that this war crime would be resoundingly condemned by our multipolar BRICS saviours. However, as recently reported by Edward Slavsquat, internal BRICS politics meant actually speaking out against warmongering tyrants was a bit tricky. So the BRICS delegates decided not to mention Iran by name to avoid any embarrassment.

Instead, the foreign ministers “expressed deep concern on the recent developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region” and noted the “differing views among some members.”

Though there was no specific mention of the attack on Iran—for diplomatic reasons you understand—Cuba, Syria, Sudan, and Lebanon all got honourable mentions. The BRICS foreign ministers emphasised the need for “peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue,” “UN peacekeeping missions,” and “post-conflict reconstruction and development”—like in Gaza, for example.

With regard to genocide in Gaza, collectively, the BRICS ministers expressed their “grave concern.” Though they stressed that some BRICS member states “had reservation” about Palestinian statehood.

Fiercely opposing genocide slightly, The BRICS politicians “called for the implementation of the relevant UNGA and UNSC Resolutions.” This, they observed, includes UNSC 2803 which welcomes and endorses both the 29th September 2025 “Comprehensive Plan” for peace in Gaza and the subsequent 13th October “Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity.” This is the UN resolutions the Trump administration is using to turn Gaza’s child graveyard into a deregulated Special Economic Zone playground for multinationals and billionaires.

Supporting the technocratic “post-conflict reconstruction” of Gaza, the BRICS foreign ministers ultimately settled on trotting out the same platitudes that every other government—other than Israeli government—trots out. BRICS ministers advocated a return to a “State of Palestine within the internationally recognized 1967 borders.” Well, kind of, at any rate.

Yeah! That’s sticking it to ‘em.

BRICS foreign ministers meeting 2026. Source: https://diplomacybeyond.com/brics-foreign-ministers-meeting-2026/

The UN’s dystopian “Pact for the Future,” including its “Global Digital Compact and the Declaration of Future Generations,” shouldn’t just ruin the lives of people living in developed nations.

No, no, according to the BRICS, populations in “Emerging Markets and Developing Countries (EMDCs), as well as Least Developed Countries (LDCs), especially from Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean” must also be walled up inside the digital Panopticon. What’s the point of global governance unless everyone is controlled by it?

This, of course, is why the transnational capitalist oligarch crowd invented multipolarity in the first place. But I digress.

Like the US, Israeli, and UK governments—and just like all the other EU, Five Eyes, and Commonwealth member states—the BRICS governments are equally agreed that “Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs)” are the key drivers for “socio-economic growth.”

Therefore, the global “digital transformation” must surge ahead. Again, the WEF and its partners—such as the UN—must be cock-a-hoop that the BRICS enthusiastically endorse the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR).

The BRICS are offering beautiful multipolarity, not the awful authoritarian technological control grid currently being served up by ugly Western governments and their corporate sponsors. So the snappy Schwabian acronym “4IR” is not in the BRICS’ lexicon. The 4IR is called “Industry 4.0,” lest there be any confusion.

In BRICS globalese, the entirely separate and distinct “Industry 4.0” digital transformation necessitates establishing a vibrant technology company “start-up ecosystem.” This is also completely different from the Silicon Valley oligarchs’ Dark Enlightenment inspired accelerationism because reasons.

You can tell it’s not the same because “digital public infrastructure, leveraging emerging technologies” will “aim at accelerating innovation-led economic growth,” you see.

It’s important to understand that BRICS-led multipolarity has arrived to save us all from the insidious schemes of the transnational capitalist oligarchs. It is not simply the next logical and long-planned step on the path toward the envisaged “new world order.” And anyway, even if it is, many Multipolaristas say that the Rhodes/Milner “new world order” model doesn’t mean anything, other than serving as a general term for global governance. . . . Oh, and that global governance is necessary.

Multipolarity is regional not global.

The multipolar world order is about delivering fairness and healthy regional competition, promoting peace, and stimulating innovation and better international trade relations. Multipolarity is good, and anyone who says otherwise is merely shilling for “Western Empire” and is probably a conspiracy theorist who thinks they’re all in it together.

The BRICS governments say the “ICT environment” they are building will be “interoperable.” The multipolar Industry 4.0 digital transformation will be “more inclusive, accessible, sustainable and interoperable” than the 4IR digital gulag on offer from the Western Empire. This is because, say the BRICS foreign ministers, their digital Panopticon will be based upon “globally interoperable common rules and standards.”

Globally interoperable rules and standards? Interoperable with what?

IBM—reportedly the largest industrial research organisation in the world—stresses why “interoperability,” especially between ICT systems, matters:

Interoperability is made possible by using common standards that define how data is formatted and exchanged between systems. [. . .] Interoperability is important because it optimizes data sharing between separate information systems, which helps prevent data silos, [. . .] so disconnected datasets can be easily accessed to achieve a common objective.

“Globally interoperable” means global, not regional.

You can call it “multipolar” if you want, but exerting global governance over that unified, interoperable digital system, to achieve “common objectives,” is the centralised control of a global system. In a world where everything, from the information we share, to the management of global supply chains and the control of the international financial and monetary system is digital and interoperable, all “multipolarity” suggests is global dictatorship.

Multipolarity is a sales gimmick. The Multipolaristas have created a fake dialectic, seemingly on behalf of transnational capitalist oligarchs. They suggest that one model of global dictatorship is better than another. They’re inviting people the world over to embrace their own enslavement within a global, digital surveillance state. They are seriously arguing that multipolar dictatorship is preferable. But then, the Multipolaristas would say that I’m just a Western imperialist analysing everything from my western perspective, guilty of binary thinking and failing to see the potential beauty of multipolar win-win cooperation.

Highlighting where I have gone so awry, the BRICS foreign ministers add that “strengthening digital financial security” is essential for better multipolar global governance. This can be achieved by enhancing “cross-border cooperation among customs authorities, financial intelligence units, law enforcement agencies, tax authorities and supervisory bodies.” To this end, the BRICS governments are ready to step up and take “leadership of the IMF and the WB [World Bank].”

Luckily, the multipolar world order will “enhance the legitimacy of the World Bank Group, as a better, bigger, and more effective development finance institution.” So that’s an end to global debt trap diplomacy, apart from expanding it and centralising control over it even further.

The BRICS governments are particularly looking forward to deepening their “cooperation in global health initiatives, including within the World Health Organization (WHO).” The BRICS seem quite keen on the “WHO Pandemic Agreement” and hope the “BRICS R&D Vaccine Center” can contribute effectively to the next global public-private pandemic.

It comes as a relief, then, that all of this oppressive, global technocratic tyranny will “ensure the promotion and protection of democracy, human rights and fundamental freedoms for all.” This is because, unlike Western governments that peddle exactly the same propagandist crap, the multipolar BRICS-led new world order places “humanity and people at the centre.” This leaves humanity—notably led by the Multipolaristas at the moment—the freedom to big-up the multipolar new world order. Or, as the BRICS foreign ministers put it, “people to people contacts” can amplify “the voice for greater BRICS representation in global governance.”

There are a few people around the world who aren’t yet entirely convinced that the beautiful multipolar world order is that attractive. Indeed, some go so far as to publicly question why we need any kind of oligarch-led world order at all. Fear not! The BRICS governments can stamp that nonsense out.

Worried that “promoting BRICS cooperation” might face some opposition, the BRICS ministers say that “the challenges stemming from and within the digital realm” can be overcome. By adopting “a comprehensive, balanced, and objective approach” to information “security,” and by deploying “globally interoperable common rules and standards,” BRICS governments are confident they can tackle the scourge of whatever they determine to be “misinformation, hate-speech, [and] disinformation.”

Phew, better global censorship at last! Perhaps the beautiful multipolar new world order is alluring after all.

What do you reckon?

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 23:25

North Korea Achieves Its First AI-Guided Missiles In Test Overseen By Kim

In a development that South Korea, Japan and the United States are likely to find deeply alarming, North Korea launched AI-guided cruise missiles in a test that analysts have described as the first of its kind for the sanctioned country.

The launch and test was overseen by Kim Jong-un early this week, and it was presented as part of his new military modernization and preparedness initiative which has been greatly hyped by Pyongyang over the last several years.

KCNA/EPA/Shutterstock

North Korea's goal is "to build the most modern and powerful artillery force which no one can match," Kim said according to state Korea Central News Agency (KCNA).

The army, he warned, should possess enough "destructive power" to make survival "impossible" for any enemy it strikes, the KCNA report continued.

The tactical missile utilizes "AI terminal guidance function" - which allows artificial intelligence to guide the missile during its final stage, until it reaches its target.

Pyongyang has never before acknowledged using AI in its missile systems, which Monday's successful test marks a milestone. Kim further hailed that tests were a "clear signal of upgrading of our military force" and expressed "great satisfaction" at the exercises.

Additionally, "The tests in particular confirmed the combat readiness of cruise missiles that will be deployed at artillery units near the border with ​South Korea equipped with precision navigation and AI-guided control that can strike targets at 100 km (62 miles)," Kim ​said.

According to some analysis of the launch featured by Reuters:

"It's about using ​AI when recognising the ​target and guiding the ⁠missile," said Yang Uk, a military expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. The North has previously said it had used AI technology in its drones.

Hong ​Min at the Korea Institute for National Unification said the North's claim likely ​involves an upgraded ⁠version of an existing digital guidance system combined with automatic target recognition technology, although the degree of its sophistication is impossible to verify from the report.

Pyongyang has also of late been touting modernization of the military's nuclear forces. It continues to expand its nuclear and missile capabilities, including plans to deploy new long-range artillery systems near the border with South Korea.

via The Telegraph

Meanwhile, South Korea's government has said it remains committed to its policy of peaceful coexistence on the Korean Peninsula and will review the implications of the changes. But it has frequently hosted US military drills, which the north naturally sees as a serious threat to its national security.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 23:00

One Man's Manifesto - In Defense Of 250

Authored by John Gallo,

In hindsight I should have known better, but sometimes a conversation that seems harmless at the time lingers long after it is over. Last November I was in San Sebastian in Northern Spain enjoying food and a beer at a local bar. As I was finishing my food, I overheard a young American woman a few feet from me speaking with her friend explaining, "You know he's going to run again. He's definitely running again." It was clear she was talking about Donald Trump, and for better or worse, my cerveza overtook my discretion, and I said to her, "I'm sorry, but he's not running again, he can't do it." She appeared stunned, and told me that Trump was going to change the Constitution and was absolutely running again. After some back and forth, she asked whether I wore a "red hat or a blue hat." She didn't like my answer, and then proceeded to tell me that I was a "horrible person with horrible values." I wasn't angry, but there was not much I could do; I simply finished my beer, said "muchisimas gracias," and left the bar. I was amused at the time, because from my perspective, the woman had been coopted by a distorted set of facts. But seven months out, that conversation is a perfect example of our current political divide, and forced me to ask how we arrived at this point.

I enjoyed the benefit of a first-rate education - a prep school in Brooklyn, a private college in Pennsylvania, and law school in our nation's capital. For the majority of my personal and professional life, I have walked hallways and corridors with liberals and progressives. Many of my friends - both growing up and into adulthood - were Democrats, and I have listened to their ideas and worldview most of my life. My first vote for president was in 1976, and I responded as many college students at that time and voted for Jimmy Carter. I was taken by what I perceived to be Carter's fundamental decency as a person, but looking back, I had little understanding of either conservatism or the ideological differences between the two parties. More importantly, I had no historical understanding of the failures of progressivism. And while I always intellectually understood the arguments from my Democratic friends, there was always a part of me that found liberalism difficult to embrace - too many ideas just didn't make sense. I stopped reading The New York Times more than 25 years ago, a talking point that causes great consternation among my remaining friends on the left to this day. Over the past ten years, I have been called a traitor to my class, confused, and God knows how many other things. I have been excommunicated from a golf foursome for my political views, removed from guest lists, and lost more than one friend along the way. But I am at peace with my worldview, and I offer no apology for being willing to express my thoughts and ideas.

I have voted Republican for the majority of my adult life, never voted for Obama or Clinton, and voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024. I abstained from the presidential vote in 2016 because I believed that Trump's personality was too abrasive and stories about his past too disconcerting to think that he was an appropriate individual to occupy the White House. What happened in 2017 and beyond, however, was both alarming and eye-opening. I agreed with many of the policies that Trump tried to implement during his first term, and then watched as Democrats embraced a newfound craziness on an almost daily basis. It started with wearing pink hats and condoning violent protests on the streets of DC on Inauguration Day. Madonna shared her fantasy about burning down the White House, and Johnny Depp speculated about killing a president. Kathy Griffin displayed a severed head of a Donald Trump figure, and an actor dressed as Trump in a Central Park Shakespeare production was stabbed in the back. But that was just a preamble. What we have seen in the ensuing decade is the descent of Democrats from a political party that did not like Trump to a party that has sought to destroy all vestiges of conservatism - originally through protest and intimidation and now through violence as a political strategy. Bill Ayres would be proud. At first, we were exposed to behavior that most on the right thought was simply irrational. Progressives started to impose their agenda by removing names such as Abraham Lincoln and George Washington from schools, and removing statues of Thomas Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt from their rightful places in New York City. Conservatives of all stripes were being doxed, censored, and fired from their employment for not agreeing with leftist precepts. I was criticized routinely for questioning leftist ideology, but understood my universe well enough never to discuss politics in my workplace, save for a few exceptions. One was condemned if you dared to question BLM, or worse, critiqued Critical Race Theory or the anti-racist literature from Robin D'Angelo and Ibrahim X. Kendi. One thought carefully before saying systemic racism was an overhyped metaphor, and if you did not think Hamilton was the greatest play produced in the history of mankind, it was proof that you were an outright bigot. Under Biden, the left fully embraced the idea that "equity" was a fundamental principle to which everyone needed to conform. The new intellectuals discovered new pronouns, The 1619 Project was offered as legitimate history, and we were admonished that gender differences in athletics were simply an artificial construct. Intolerance became the order of the day.

What is happening now, and why this is such a compelling moment in our history, is that there are two convergent forces working together to rewrite our country's future. One force comes from traditional Democrats, and the second from far-left radicals and the Progressive/Socialist wing of the Democratic Party. They are unified in interest because they are jointly motivated by their hatred of Donald Trump - a hate that sadly has evolved into an unhinged pathology never witnessed in American history. That hatred has erupted into a universe of irrational fears and false assumptions by the left, and is now offered as rationalization for acts of retribution on conservatives throughout the country. The hatred of all things related to Trump has engulfed the thought processes of both traditional Democrats and their far-left allies, and both are committed to employing all means necessary to achieve their respective goals. Traditional Democrats want power, and their objective is to reshape our governing institutions so as to cement changes into our institutions that will be permanent. They have made clear that they want to end the Senate filibuster and add the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico as states. And to control the legislative process, the Democrats will seek to increase the number of justices on the Supreme Court to thirteen. Once that is accomplished, there may be a movement to abolish the Electoral College, although this would be a multi-year process requiring changes to the Constitution. Democrats rely on one strategic maneuver - if they can't win by traditional rules, they will just change the rules, while simultaneously making disingenuous protestations about the status quo as a threat to democracy. If successful, the Democrats will create a new power structure with one-party rule that they will never surrender.

The far-left, however, want more. They don't want political power as much as they want to replace capitalism with socialism, and they harbor no pretense. We see socialist mayors in Seattle and New York City, and complete ineptitude in mayor's offices in Chicago and Los Angeles. We have socialists in Congress, billionaires have become evil, and "tax the rich" has become a talking point among progressives throughout the country. Antisemitism under the label "Free Palestine" is now in vogue. Democrats are heading towards a full embrace of Mamdani's campaign theme of socialism under the guise of affordability, while ignoring the fact that billionaires contribute a greater percentage of revenue to state and local governments than their numbers suggest, and dismissing the fact that increasing taxes on the wealthy does not reduce the wealth gap. Neither the child-like Mr. Mamdani nor the historically illiterate Ms. Cortez have a serious understanding of economics, but they do understand the power of rhetoric and social media. In the process, they have convinced a generation of young Americans that the capitalist system is flawed and must be changed. Unfortunately, socialists are unfamiliar with the work of economist Thomas Sowell, who has described The Communist Manifesto as a masterpiece of propaganda with "absolutely no contact with actual economic reality."

What has changed, however, is that Democrats and their radical allies understand that they cannot obtain their objectives through traditional democratic means, so instead have chosen intimidation and violence as their new weapons of choice. Democrats for a decade have called Trump supporters and conservatives deplorable, fascists, and Nazis, and all too often have employed a Hitler analogy, which is both obscene on its face and ignorant of history. Politicians on the left have encouraged supporters to get in the face of Republicans, and the last president gave a speech in Philadelphia before the entire nation in which he essentially called half the country racist. Earlier this year, Susan Rice pledged retribution against Republicans who supported Trump if Democrats take back power, and asserted that all such individuals would be held accountable for their behavior. "It will not end well" for Republican-leaning corporations was one of her threats. In April, Hakeem Jeffries declared that "we are on a state of maximum war" when discussing the ongoing redistricting battles. James Carville assured followers that Democrats will launch investigations into President Trump and his family if the party retakes Congress in the midterms, warning that the political fallout will feel like getting "punched in the mouth by Mike Tyson." Senator Booker has expressed his desire to punch President Trump in the face, and Nancy Pelosi famously commented, "people are going to do what they're going to do" when questioned about violence during the George Floyd riots.

But to this day, the left ignores that when you dehumanize and threaten a group of individuals, you leave the offended group no option but to take note. Worse, by constantly invoking the Hitler analogy, you convince unstable individuals that it is rational to commit acts of violence upon those whom you are calling Hitler. Logic dictates that it is appropriate to use any means necessary to kill someone as bad as Hitler, but when you embrace that rationale as part of your political rhetoric, mentally unbalanced people feel justified in taking matters into their own hands. Charlie Kirk would be alive today but for this logic.

Far-left activists have become the modern-day equivalent of the Jacobins of the French Revolution. This is not hyperbole; the language of revolution resonates throughout history, and repeats itself today. From Robespierre and the French Revolution: "The revolutionary government owes to the good citizen all the protection of the nation; it owes nothing to the Enemies of the People but death." Mao Zedong viewed violence as a way to destroy the Nationalists and build a new socialist society, and noted as far back as 1927 that "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." Che Guevara embraced hatred as a core element of his power struggle, and argued that to vanquish a "brutal enemy," revolutionaries must transform into violent killing machines. And from today, we have the Democratic social media influencer Hasan Piker, who offers strikingly similar rhetoric. Piker recently wrote: "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." Piker, an Antifa supporter who has more influence today within the Democratic Party than John Fetterman, has also said that America "deserved 9/11." Most ominous perhaps is the warning from Elon Musk, speaking about Democrats in the aftermath of the most recent attempt on Donald Trump's life: "If they're willing to die to assassinate, imagine what they will do if they gain political power."

In the past few years, we have seen three efforts to assassinate President Trump, one assassination attempt on a Supreme Court justice, and the assassination of a conservative thought leader. Following the George Floyd riots, 25 people were killed and over two billion dollars in property damage incurred nationwide in the name of a better world. There were violent protests with no legitimate justification in Ferguson, Missouri, following the death of a young male who had tried to rob a liquor store, and protestors in New York on behalf of Black Lives Matter expressed their desire to "fry cops like bacon." During 2025, there were approximately 238 assaults on ICE officers in the country including 68 assaults committed by individuals driving vehicles. St. John's church near the White House was set on fire during the George Floyd riots, and Tesla dealerships were burned in 2025 as a way of protesting budgetary constraints proposed by Elon Musk. There has been violence from the right - witness the 2025 murders of two Minnesota state representatives and the chaos of January 6. But the overall picture is not one of equivalence, and those who insist that it is are either poorly informed or willfully ignorant. Journalists such as Nick Shirley, who did nothing more than expose financial corruption in Minnesota, have received multiple death threats. None of this comes from the conservative echo chamber - it is purely a Democratic playbook run amuck. And to top things off, we have seen an appalling uptick in overt antisemitism in the aftermath of the October 7 attacks in Israel - according to the Anti-Defamation League over 7,300 reported incidents of antisemitism in 2024 and more than 6,700 in 2025. And while there are certainly antisemites on the far right who would engage in antisemitic violence if they had the opportunity, the current iteration of the anti-Israeli movement appears to come largely from the far-left progressives and the Free Palestine movement born on college campuses. Consider that in 2024 the Democratic Party debated whether a Jewish governor from Pennsylvania could be its nominee for vice president, and that the Democratic Party of Maine has chosen as its candidate for U.S. Senate a man who wore a Nazi tattoo on his chest. As a parallel, consider that Republicans in Florida are in the process of electing a black male as governor. The far left embraces its ideology more than it loves history, and is unconcerned that earlier historical tragedies could repeat themselves. Recent polling data make clear that members of Gen Z see political violence as a rational means by which to achieve their political ends, which in a normal world, would cause great concern across the political spectrum.

As we embrace our nation's 250th birthday, we need to remember that we are a good country, not a perfect one. We were born of a revolution, and protest is baked into our national DNA; protest is both legitimate and consistent with our history. However, what is happening now is not normal - what we are witnessing is a violence born of an irrational hatred of one individual that in some ways rivals the socialist uprisings of the early twentieth century or tracks the divisions that led to the Civil War. Donald Trump may have many personality traits that have stretched the bounds of presidential behavior, but none of what the left has done has either healed the nation or enhanced the cause of traditional Democrats. The traditional Democrats have remained silent in the face of the ongoing violence, and have formed a toxic relationship with the lunatic wing of their party that neither side is willing to break.

Perhaps the woman in San Sebastian was correct, and I am a horrible person with horrible values. I will let others decide that, but I am at peace with my beliefs. I have exhausted my attempts to convince people to change their minds, but I cannot unsee threats that to me are all too apparent. I cannot unsee individuals who openly mocked the death of Charlie Kirk, nor can I unsee individuals who expressed remorse that the Trump assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, was not successful. That is too much to ask. I have believed for more than a decade that the far left is more dangerous than the far right. I know that we as conservatives have issues to address, but I am convinced that the behavior from the far left unchecked will lead to continued dissolution of our national fabric and further Balkanization of our nation. But this is exactly what the far left wants, and we as a constructive opposition must stand up against those who would dissolve our national identity. We have two legitimate weapons at our disposal - our voices and the ballot box. We must use both, and we cannot surrender our country to the untender mercies of the Jacobins. They are at the gate, or as Ronald Reagan once noted, "if fascism comes to America, it will be in the name of liberalism." We have been warned.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 22:35

Israeli Army Seizing 'Strategic Positions' Deep Into Lebanon, North Of Litani River

Within a day after unleashing a devastating flurry of Monday airstrikes on Lebanon, Israeli ground forces have aggressively expanded the theater of operations inside Lebanon, violating a status quo by sending IDF ground troops across the "Yellow Line" which was established at the inception of the ceasefire.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Tuesday that Israel is "intensifying operations" in Lebanon by taking strategic positions deeper into the country with a wave of offensives north of the Litani River.

IDF has systematically destroyed bridges across south Lebanon, via Reuters.

Officially, Tel Aviv is justifying the deep territorial grab as a "defensive" counter-measure against persistent Hezbollah drone strikes on occupation forces as well as communities in northern Israel.

"We are intensifying our operations in Lebanon. The IDF is operating with significant forces on the ground and taking control of strategically dominant positions. We are reinforcing the security buffer zone in order to protect the communities of northern Israel," Netanyahu has said in a fresh video released by his office.

"At the same time, we are carrying out a major national effort to advance creative and innovative solutions against explosive drones," he added, following a meeting with Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir in Tel Aviv.

The ground offensive comes as hawkish Israeli cabinet members openly lobby for a substantial escalation of the war and permanent occupations deeper into sovereign Lebanese territory.

The high-ranking command structure apparently operates under the assumption that it can successfully force a 12 km buffer zone between Hezbollah and the Blue Line border (the 75-mile demarcation line established by the United Nations in June 2000).

Local Israeli media outlets are already questioning the strategic utility of the entire operation, pointing out that Hezbollah’s tactical drone fleet is widely believed to possess an operational range in excess of 30 km.

Hezbollah has been having success especially with fiber-optic cable drones which are not to susceptible to jamming, hacking, or other electronic warfare interception measures.

All of these developments mean that the Washington-mediated ceasefire is effectively dead, and as Hezbollah's asymmetric warfare is likely to ramp up in response.

via Bicom

The last couple days have also seen whole communities in Shia strongholds of south Beirut flee suburbs which are likely to be targeted in new IDF airstrikes - as has been the pattern of the last several years.

These developments could negatively impact US-Iran efforts to hammer out a final peace deal, which has been grinding on slowly, though it appears that potential return to full-scale regional war is unlikely, for now.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 22:10

Federal Government Floats NDAs For Employees In Leak Crackdown

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump's administration on May 26 floated a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) for federal employees who have access to what the government described as sensitive information.

The logo of the Office of Personnel Management in Washington on Feb. 13, 2025. Tierney L. Cross/Reuters

The proposed NDA says that employees may access "non-public, confidential, or proprietary information," such as personal health information and details relating to agency operations.

It states that employees understand they are required to follow laws and regulations governing confidential information and that they agree to "take all reasonable precautions to safeguard and protect Confidential Government Information from unauthorized disclosure."

Violating the agreement could lead to repercussions, including termination and civil or criminal penalties, according to the draft.

The Office of Personnel Management developed the NDA form in the wake of leaks, including the leak of information about the U.S. raid on Venezuela prior to American forces carrying it out, the office said in a notice set to be published on May 27.

"Federal employees do not have discretion to disclose Confidential Government Information outside of narrow circumstances prescribed by relevant authorities and implemented by procedures which may differ by agency," the notice states. "Unauthorized disclosures of Confidential Government Information disrupt agency operations and erode public trust."

In recent months, there have also been disclosures of personal information of about 4,500 employees of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, one of the agencies charged with enforcing immigration law, as well as leaks of planned immigration enforcement operations.

"In much of the private sector, employees handling sensitive business or customer information are routinely required to sign confidentiality agreements, and the federal government should not be held to a lower standard," Scott Kupor, director of the Office of Personnel Management, said in a statement.

"Americans should be able to trust that their personal data and sensitive government information are being handled responsibly. This proposal reinforces accountability across the federal workforce while helping agencies better protect against unauthorized disclosures."

The draft says that nothing in the agreement prohibits or restricts an employee from becoming a whistleblower or from making public details about possible wrongdoing.

If a disclosure violates the law, the employing agency may report the breach to law enforcement officials, per the draft.

It states that the agency "shall be entitled to seek equitable relief ... from any court of competent jurisdiction" and that the employee "assigns to the United States all royalties, remunerations, and emoluments that have resulted, will result, or may result from any disclosure, publication, or revelation of Government Information in violation of the terms of this Agreement."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 21:45

Federal Agents Seize 500 Pounds Of Cocaine From Oil Tanker

U.S. authorities say they stopped a major cocaine shipment allegedly tied to a Mexican cartel after an oil tanker traveling from Ecuador was intercepted near Southern California, according to KTLA5. 

Roughly 227 kilograms — about 500 pounds — of cocaine were discovered aboard the Aquatravesia, a Liberian-flagged tanker owned by a Greek company, according to federal prosecutors. Investigators believe the drugs were meant to be transferred to cartel operatives waiting off the Mexican coast.

KTLA writes that the vessel had sailed from Ecuador earlier this month and was en route to the United States when investigators received intelligence that cocaine was being smuggled onboard.

Federal prosecutors charged Ceasar Tubay Gelacio Jr., a 43-year-old crew member from the Philippines, with importing a controlled substance. Authorities allege he obtained the narcotics in Ecuador and intended to move them during the ship’s voyage north.

According to court records, crew members eventually found hidden packages in the tanker’s garbage compartment. After questioning workers aboard the ship, the captain allegedly concluded Gelacio was connected to the drugs and secured the packages in another locked area.

Investigators say the captain was warned that armed boats linked to a Mexican cartel would attempt to meet the tanker roughly 80 nautical miles off Mexico during the night of May 14 and the following morning. Authorities also said backup crews were expected to intercept the vessel in Mexican waters if the original transfer failed.

The captain later reported hearing radio communications he believed came from cartel members trying to reach the ship before a potential boarding attempt.

U.S. officials directed the tanker to continue toward the Los Angeles-Long Beach port area, where federal agents boarded the vessel after it anchored offshore and seized the cocaine.

Gelacio was arrested Thursday and appeared in federal court the following day. Prosecutors said he faces at least 10 years in prison if convicted, with a possible maximum sentence of life.

Officials emphasized the case remains an allegation, and Gelacio is presumed innocent unless proven guilty in court.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 21:20

Texas AG Sues Discord For Deceiving Parents, Endangering Children

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against communications app Discord, alleging that the platform allows child predators to exploit children while falsely claiming child safety to parents.

“Discord presents itself to the world as a platform built on community, connection, and safety. It is not,” the lawsuit, filed on May 22 in the District Court of Collin County, Texas, said.

“Behind the safety pages and transparency pages, Discord built and maintains one of the internet’s most efficient hunting grounds for manipulation, grooming, and predatory behavior towards children. Discord did so knowingly, deliberately, and profitably.”

The design choices implemented on the communications platform make it easy for bad actors to locate vulnerable users, build trust quickly, and operate away from public view, the complaint said.

According to a Discord webpage, safety is at the “core of everything” the company does.

In another post, the company claims safety considerations are “fully integrated into our design process.” Discord also says that it has a “zero-tolerance policy” against individuals who engage in sexual grooming or exploitation of minors.

Such promises made to consumers, parents, and regulators were false, the lawsuit alleges.

Discord makes safety an “opt-in rather than default,” the complaint states.

“It chose to leave private servers invisible. It chose to staff its most critical safety function with unpaid volunteers. It chose to expire violations after 90 days. It chose to bury the block button. Discord chose profits and growth over the safety of children,” it states.

A 45-year-old can create a Discord account as a 13-year-old, and the platform has no reliable mechanism to detect or prevent such actions, according to the lawsuit.

While Discord allows channels to be age-restricted if a moderator wishes, this protection depends entirely on the self-reported birthdate entered when a user creates an account. The platform basically created an age-verification system “that a child can defeat in seconds,” the complaint said.

The lawsuit highlights multiple cases of minors being harmed by predators on Discord, including a 13-year-old boy who committed suicide in 2022 after being targeted by the 764 extremist network on the platform.

In another case, a 15-year-old boy committed suicide after he was groomed by a predator on Discord and Roblox to send sexually explicit images and videos, according to the lawsuit.

The complaint noted that Discord has made it into the “Dirty Dozen” list set up by the National Center on Sexual Exploitation for five straight years.

“Sexual abusers return to Discord again and again, thanks to this company’s reputation for lax rule enforcement and dangerous design,” the center said. “Even registered sex offenders have been charged for targeting kids on Discord.”

The lawsuit asks the court to declare Discord’s actions as “unlawful, deceptive, misleading, and unfair” and order the company to implement age verification requirements.

In an emailed statement to The Epoch Times, a Discord spokesperson said the lawsuit’s “characterization of Discord does not reflect the platform we have built or the investments we have made in user safety.”

According to the spokesperson, unlike social media platforms, Discord does not have any algorithmic feeds, infinite scroll, or public “likes” that push content to mass audiences.

“Our safety systems combine advanced technology and human-led investigations, alongside user reports to help identify accounts or spaces engaged in harmful activity, including sharing exploitative and child sexual abuse materials,” the spokesperson said.

“We provide teen users and their parents and guardians with important privacy and safety tools, including Teen Safety Assist and our Family Center. We look forward to collaborating with policymakers in working toward a safer online experience for all users on Discord and across the internet.”

Age Assurance Rollout

On Feb. 9, Discord announced it planned to roll out teen safety features globally to ensure a “safer and more inclusive experience” for users aged 13 and older.

This involves an “age assurance process” in which users must submit identification or agree to use facial age estimation technology. However, only in a minority of cases will age assurance be required, according to Discord.

As part of the update, users will have “teen-appropriate experience, with updated communication settings, restricted access to age-gated spaces, and content filtering that preserves the privacy and meaningful connections that define Discord,” the company said.

The updates were scheduled to take effect in March. But on Feb. 24, Discord said that the rollout had been extended to the second half of this year.

Meanwhile, Discord was one of the companies targeted by a recent letter from Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chairman Andrew N. Ferguson, who asked the platform to comply with the Take It Down Act by May 19.

The Act requires platforms to set up a process that enables individuals, including children, to request the removal of intimate photos or videos shared without their consent. Platforms must make it easy for victims to submit such removal requests.

The FTC warned that it would “vigorously” enforce the Act, with each violation potentially resulting in civil penalties of $53,088.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 20:55