Brent and WTI futures remain below $100 a barrel on Tuesday morning, partly suppressed by governments releasing strategic oil reserves into global markets. But the more serious issue is building downstream, where the Russia-Ukraine war, strikes against energy infrastructure, and continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are fueling the refined-products "perfect storm" we have repeatedly warned about.
Oil extended gains this morning, with Brent trading around $91 a barrel after another vessel attack was reported near the Hormuz maritime chokepoint. President Trump also said he had no interest in extending the interim peace agreement with Iran, which expired Monday.
Diesel is now the biggest concern ahead of the Northern Hemisphere harvest. Rising fuel costs threaten to hit farmers, freight operators, and ultimately consumers through higher prices for food and goods. JPMorgan penned a note last week warning that a global food crisis could erupt as soon as next year (read here).
Back to diesel, the squeeze is being compounded by depleted inventories, with US diesel reserves near 23-year lows and European stockpiles approaching levels last seen during the 2022 energy crisis.
A chart we published overnight went viral after showing the front-month US diesel crack spread (the NYMEX one-month heating-oil/WTI crack spread) hit a record $102 per barrel.
"This is absolutely unprecedented. The industrial economy either grinds to a halt, or consumers are about to be hit with the biggest energy pass-through in history," we noted.
Diesel crack hits record $102. This is absolutely unprecedented.
Industrial economy either grinds to a halt or consumers about to be hit with the biggest energy pass through in history pic.twitter.com/OtAdgrCvb3
Several Wall Street desks have warned about the unfolding diesel crunch:
Notably, diesel prices are rising far faster than crude. SPR releases may be suppressing crude prices right now, but they do little to resolve shortages of refined products. Instead, the releases are pushing emergency crude inventories, particularly in the US, toward dangerously low levels (the US SPR below 300 million barrels), while the downstream fuel shock continues to intensify - a perfect storm indeed.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/18/2026 - 07:20The top US military commander in the Middle East has personally visited the USS Lincoln carrier, which is currently patrolling the Middle East after having long been engaged in operations against Iran.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief, Adm. Brad Cooper, directly inspected the ship amid widespread reports of low morale and extremely challenging conditions amid a record extended deployment.
Screenshot via CENTCOM on X.But Cooper came away with the opposite conclusions from what the headlines and some lawmakers are saying. After the Saturday visit, Cooper said the Lincoln has "among the lowest number of cases related to mental health" out of 11 active US aircraft carriers.
Included in the litany of problems the ship has faced, reports have alleged that in some instances crew members tried to commit suicide by going overboard.
He did say mental health is a "priority" on the warship and said that long service at sea was "uniquely challenging and tough".
"I applaud Lincoln's leadership for... stepping up and making mental health and crew resilience a leadership priority," Cooper stated, while also admitting frankly that that "all is not perfect".
The Lincoln departed its San Diego home base on Nov. 21, 2025, on what was supposed to be a seven-month deployment. That deployment is now in its ninth month, but what's far more remarkable is that the Lincoln went more than 200 days without a port call to give sailors a chance to walk on land and unwind away from the somewhat claustrophobic conditions aboard their huge ship.
On Monday, President Trump while speaking to reporters in the Oval Office also downplayed and rejected reports of a crisis on board, saying that the carrier was "beautifully maintained and beautifully taken care of"...
Reporter: Is there enough food on USS Lincoln?
Trump: There is. That was a fake CNN report.
Over the years, we had them out there much longer.
An admiral told me, “I have been on ships much longer than that, sir.” And people on the Lincoln say it’s beautifully taken care of. pic.twitter.com/qzagDUuaX6
This was after the following high level military statement:
In a statement on Friday, Aug. 14, Acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao called some media reports about the ship “dishonest” but did say that “a small number of mental health cases were treated” aboard the ship. His statement was the highest-level acknowledgement of mental health incidents onboard the Lincoln.
Also, days ago War Secretary Pete Hegseth called the negative and alarming reports of poor conditions "completely misrepresented". Trump had then on Friday followed his remarks by addressing the over-extended deployment, calling the length of time at sea "not nearly long enough."
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/18/2026 - 06:55Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
A retired British police officer has been handed a criminal conviction and more than £1,000 in fines for resharing a satirical Facebook meme poking fun at Islam.
Stephen Gray, 65, a former Police officer who served nearly three decades, was found guilty under Section 127 of the Communications Act 2003 of making a "grossly offensive" post.
The case has sparked fresh warnings that blasphemy laws, abolished in England in 2008, are being revived by the back door - but only for one religion.
'It was one joke, not targeted at anybody, pointing out certain parts of Islam.'
Former police officer and foster carer Stephen Gray recounts his experience of being charged for resharing a post criticising Islam, raising questions about a potential backdoor to blasphemy laws. pic.twitter.com/9BMeUigvxC
Gray's first concern when charged was not himself, but the young Irish girl he and his wife had been fostering for six years. "I was initially quite worried because obviously we have to have enhanced DBS checks to foster children," he told The Telegraph.
He added, "These kids have enough to put up with without the fear they may be moving again hanging over their heads." Social services later described the prosecution as "utter rubbish" and reassured the couple it would not affect their fostering.
Gray was reported to Durham Constabulary by a non-Muslim neighbour with whom he had previously had an unrelated disagreement.
He had reshared two images. The first featured a Middle Eastern man alongside the words "time for mass deportation" and "Children in Need," with a caption reading: "12-year-old Mohammed recently arrived at Dover. Please donate to help him move from a three-star to a five-star hotel which has a better halal menu, free wifi and Sky and is nearer to a girls' school."
The district judge ruled this was not grossly offensive because it related to a political issue debated in Parliament.
The second image showed a man in a turban next to a rasher of bacon with the caption: "Fun facts about Bacon! People who eat bacon have a lower chance of marrying a 9-year-old!" That post led to the conviction.
The judge decided it was about religion rather than politics and was therefore "grossly offensive."
Gray has been clear about his intent. "I made a joke, an ironic joke, about Islam. That is all it was at the end of the day. A joke. I certainly never, not for one second, thought it would be deemed abusive."
He added: "I guess some of the posts may have been in bad taste. Some of them may upset one or two people, but I didn't think for one second it would be cast as grossly offensive by the police, the Crown Prosecution Service and by the courts. Not for one second."
Hundreds, if not thousands, of other people had reshared the same material. Gray did not create the images.
The Crown Prosecution Service initially declined to charge him, stating there was no realistic prospect of conviction. The complainant then used the Victims' Right to Review scheme, and the CPS reversed course.
Gray is appealing with the support of the Free Speech Union. His former boss at Cleveland Police was "absolutely gobsmacked." Gray recalled: "Back when I was serving, if I had taken this case to my sergeant or inspector, I would have been on foot beat night shift for the next five years for wasting everybody's time. It wouldn't have got past the front door of the police station."
He now sees a clear pattern. "I just think it's a dangerous road that the Government is going down trying to use the justice system to get us to stop criticising a religion that promotes a lot of things people might not agree with."
Lord Young of Acton, general secretary of the Free Speech Union, put it bluntly: "Prosecuting people for making jokes about Islam, particularly if they contain a kernel of truth, is a new low. No one making a similar joke about Jesus would face prosecution."
Young added, "Blasphemy laws were abolished in England 18 years ago and should not be resurrected by the courts and applied to just one religion."
This is not an isolated incident. It fits a growing pattern of institutional pressure against any criticism of Islam.
Earlier this year, a Christian police community support officer with North Yorkshire Police was driven out of his job after asking basic questions about jihad and Hamas atrocities during a mandatory diversity training session billed as a "safe space."
Luke Salmons was suspended, faced misconduct proceedings, and ultimately resigned under pressure after colleagues reported a book in his locker. The force's own "safe space" invitation to discuss the issues proved hollow the moment scrutiny touched Islam.
Police forces have gone further. South Wales Police instructed officers to log conversations and comments about Islam that go beyond what the force deems "legitimate" discussion.
The Free Speech Union has warned this creates a chilling effect, allowing subjective judgments to be recorded and potentially surface in future enhanced DBS checks.
It is part of a wider push under the Labour government's non-statutory definition of "anti-Muslim hostility," which critics say is being gold-plated by public bodies to police speech.
Schools have not been spared. Multiple Labour-run councils issued guidance telling teachers that children's drawings of prophets, including Jesus or Mohammed, could be considered blasphemous under certain Islamic interpretations.
Art, music, dance and PE have all been flagged for sensitivity to Muslim parental concerns about human figures, instruments and mixed-gender contact.
At the same time, the government has urged schools, councils and workplaces to monitor and report "anti-Muslim hostility," complete with a new tsar-style role to oversee the effort.
The working group that helped shape the government's definition of anti-Muslim hostility has drawn particular scrutiny. Every member has documented links to Islamist organisations, including groups successive governments have refused to engage with because of their extreme positions.
The Free Speech Union's investigation laid out the connections in detail, raising obvious questions about bias in a process meant to define acceptable speech about one faith.
The same machinery has already claimed other victims for online jokes. Lucy Connolly was imprisoned for a post on X after the Southport attacks.
After her release on licence, the government threatened to return her to prison for sharing another satirical comment. Her case, like Gray's, shows how quickly a joke can become a criminal matter when it touches the wrong subjects.
Gray's conviction is the latest demonstration that Britain's justice system now treats criticism of Islam as uniquely toxic. A political meme about immigration hotels was waved through. A joke referencing historical facts about the Prophet Muhammad's marriage was criminalised.
The complainant was not Muslim. The posts were not directed at any individual. Thousands of others shared the same content without consequence. Yet a retired police officer who spent his career upholding the law now has a criminal record for a Facebook reshare.
The Free Speech Union is funding Gray's appeal, scheduled for November, and has instructed leading counsel.
The outcome will test whether English courts are prepared to enforce a selective blasphemy code that Parliament deliberately abolished.
For now, the message to ordinary citizens is clear: some jokes are more equal than others, and the state is watching.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/18/2026 - 06:30Building on our February theme that physical AI and humanoid robots would move beyond factory floors and folding laundry in homes into conflict zones and other high-risk environments, US-based Foundation Robotics is now discussing potential national-security deployments of its Phantom humanoid robot along the southern border.
Fox News reporters spoke with CEO Sankaet Pathak, who said the U.S.-based startup, which develops humanoid robots for industrial and military applications, has already demonstrated the capabilities of its Phantom MK1 robots to the Department of Homeland Security for border deployment.
"We're in conversations with almost all national security government bodies, so Air Force, Navy, Army, DHS," Pathak said. "We continue to have dialogues. We're starting to negotiate contracts and some applications for them."
Pathak said Phantom MK1 is designed to navigate rugged terrain that can be difficult for vehicles, drones and fixed cameras. He said potential deployment missions could center on monitoring remote border areas, inspecting tunnels, and flagging migrant crossings.
"If drones and watchtowers were able to solve for everything, why do we still have humans at the border?" Pathak emphasized.
MACHINES ON A MISSION: A U.S. robotics company says its humanoid robots could soon patrol the southern border — autonomously navigating rugged terrain, detecting people, and flagging potential crossings for human agents 24/7.
Foundation CEO Sankaet Pathak told Fox News Digital… pic.twitter.com/GrCstXNmY5
Pathak said Foundation could begin a limited pilot immediately and potentially undertake a larger deployment within several months.
Yet when Fox News asked a DHS spokesperson about the humanoid robots, the person said there is currently no formal arrangement in place.
"The Department of Homeland Security currently does not have any non-contractual agreements, pilots, or active prime contracts with Foundation," the spokesperson said.
In early March, Foundation co-founder Mike LeBlanc told TIME Magazine that the company is in "very close contact" with DHS regarding possible patrol deployments along the southern border.
LeBlanc prepares to hand a shotgun to a PhantomMattia Balsamini for TIME. Source: TIMEFoundation is already a military-approved vendor and holds government research contracts worth $24 million with the U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force. This suggests that these war bots are very close to being tested in war zones.
In fact, testing humanoid robots in Ukraine, which, remember, is the world's AI weapons laboratory, could be coming much sooner than previously thought. Earlier this year, we outlined that the company sent two Phantom MK1 robots to Ukraine for testing.
By July, several Ukrainian news outlets, including United24 Media, said that its military would begin a grant competition to develop humanoid robots for military use as part of a broader push to automate the front line and reduce battlefield risks for its troops.
We suspect Foundation could receive a portion of the grant, potentially incentivizing the company to send additional robots to Ukraine for testing.
Phantom MK1 robots recently participated in a live-fire training exercise in Las Vegas, Nevada.
If and when Ukrainian forces deploy these systems for testing, the modern battlefield will provide a rapid and unforgiving test of their operational effectiveness. Just imagine the videos that would surface on X, humanoids fightings against FPV drone.
Back to the southern border, the future vision of securing the border will likely include all categories of drones (latest drone report), humanoid robots, and ground bots that will make the border highly militarized to ensure that no hybrid warfare, such as weaponizing migration flows, can be seen, like what was done over the Biden-Harriss regime years, or more recently, the invasion of the Spanish enclave of Ceuta by military-aged men.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/18/2026 - 05:45* * *
Trump Latest Iran Remarks from OvalPresident Trump repeated some of the same old talking points while addressing reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. He asserted that Iran wants to make a deal, but "they're not going to make the kind of deal that I feel is necessary."
"Look, we're in there for one reason: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," he said. He also doubled down on a prior declaration that he wants to make the Strait of Hormuz a US territory. He said this is "a great idea" - which in effect dispels the notion that when he said it the first time it was mere hyperbole. This is also amid ongoing claims that the US military has "complete control" over the strait.
🇺🇸Trump just doubled down on plans to declare the Strait of Hormuz a U.S. territory, calling it “a great idea.”
Trump did not detail how the U.S. would claim jurisdiction over the strategic shipping lane between Iran and Oman which carries 20% of the world’s oil.…
Oil spiking amid a hodgepodge of more 'bad news' Hormuz headlines, as the Iranians have vowed to go on the 'offensive' amid demands that American forces clear out of the region. Fars is currently reporting Iranian forces have seized a UAE oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
US Energy Secretary Wright has meanwhile vowed that the US Navy will continue getting better at escorting approved maritime traffic across. He confirmed "we are not fully back to full oil flow in the Middle East," according to the Monday comments.
Oil jumps, though its unclear what the precise catalyst might be...
Iran: Shifting from Defensive to 'Fully Offensive'This should come as no surprise after the much-publicized military command reshuffle of a week ago, but a top Iranian official has told Reuters that the country is shifting from a defense posture to a "fully offensive" one in its conflict with the United States:
While bonds and stocks moved on the headline, oil was left little impacted - again perhaps become Tehran had already for days been signaling this new 'offensive' messaging as a policy shift...
Meanwhile, Iran is denying earlier Trump claims to have opened up backchannel communications with the IRGC...
Spokesperson for the Revolutionary Guard to Tasnim: Trump's claims about behind-the-scenes talks with the IRGC are delusions stemming from defeat. There are no talks between IRGC officials and Americans
Based on our information and confirmation from foreign ministry officials,…
And strangely, there was this development:
Iranian drones target Barzani's Erbil office. Masrour Barzani stated: "my personal office and the home of the head of the Security and Intelligence Agency were targeted by Iranian drone attacks." No casualties were reported.
This is after Axios reported that Nechirvan was the mediator link to the IRGC backchannel. Here's what Axios said in a Sunday report on these prior, secretive diplomatic efforts:
In mid-May, U.S. negotiators trying to reach a deal with Iran to end the war ran into a problem: They couldn't tell if the people across the table actually spoke for the country's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
So Trump administration officials did something unconventional — they went around Iran's negotiators and reached out directly to IRGC leadership. The person they tapped for the backchannel was Nechirvan Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan region in Iraq, who had something very few others do: the trust of both U.S. and IRGC leaders.
Trump Threatens to Bomb Oman if it Gets in WayPresident Trump has issued some fresh Monday remarks on Iran, after a weekend where he was relatively quiet on the conflict he launched nearly six months ago, which has long been the central controversial decision made as Commander-in-Chief, threatening to define his whole second term. In a short interview with Fox News reporter Trey Yingst, who frequently reports from Jerusalem and the Middle East, Trump threatened to bomb Oman if the Gulf country "gets in the way" of US efforts to negotiate and strike a favorable peace deal with Iran.
"I asked the president about... parallel talks that are taking place between Iran and Oman about control of the Strait of Hormuz," Yingst introduced. Trump then responded: “if Oman gets in the way [of US control in the Strait of Hormuz], we'll bomb the s**t out of them."
But already, Oman and Iran have been hammering out a nearly finalized Hormuz Strait deal, which essentially cuts the United States out of negotiations and management of the vital energy transit waterway. The deal is widely seen as ceding to Tehran de facto control of the strait, and thus also giving the Iranians major continued leverage in the ongoing standoff and conflict with Washington.
The timing of Trump's remarks are further interesting given that on the same day, 60-day window established in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) inked between the US and Iran in June has finally expired.
Iran's Foreign Ministry on Monday made clear its position that the deadline was "irrelevant" anyway given that talks never began as the US resumed hostilities. Spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said that under the MoU, the ceasefire window intended to give the two sides time to discuss "the nuclear issue" and "the lifting of sanctions"; however he charged the US with violating the terms and thus destroying the chance for talks.
Trump: Bachchannel with IRGC Open, Which Iran Then DeniesBut despite that the MoU will now go down as another failed opportunity, President Trump surprisingly raised another avenue, telling Fox that there is a backchannel with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials. The IRGC of course represents a 'hardline' aspect to Iranian governance and military command structure, and so it's surprising that this would be Trump's alleged backchannel. To be expected, Tehran has been quick to deny this on Monday.
Trump asserted that Iran should raise "the white flag of surrender" - but that he has "no time schedule" and is in "no hurry" to make a deal. He noted his observation that the Iranian's are "good poker players, but they're dying," said Trump.
In the interview the president was also asked about widespread reports that the Pentagon is running out of missiles - of both defensive interceptor and offensive variety - due to the Iran and Ukraine wars:
Regarding US munitions used against Iran, Trump said that what has been used so far against Iran "is peanuts."
Trump added that while the US has many mid-level weapons, many of the more advanced weapons, including air-defense systems, were "given away" to Ukraine by former US President Joe Biden.
Trump separately on Monday reiterated the following warning on nuclear weapons in fresh Truth Social Post:
Trump Admin 'Very Lucky Oil Prices Haven't Ballooned'In the meantime there continues to be nothing but bad options for the administration. Tehran will seek to bleed, pressure, and humiliate Trump going into the November midterms. Iran wants global economic and energy pain to come back and bite Americans, and thus sink Republicans in Congressional elections.
Joey Hood, former acting director of the Office of Iranian Affairs at the US State Department, has pointed out that Trump has encouraged Americans to see higher prices as "a very small tax in exchange for making sure that Iran doesn’t get a nuclear weapon."
Hood underscored, "But I don’t think any of those objectives have really been reached." He explained, "The Trump administration is very lucky that oil prices haven't ballooned, because countries around the world have taken measures to try to absorb the shock. There are also still ships getting through the strait, perhaps by turning off their transponders and passing through undetected."
The Iranians have been signaling that they have moved from a defensive posture to an offensive one, which they warn will be more aggressive in dealing with Washington action and provocation.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/18/2026 - 05:44