Despite the recent slide in 'hard' macro data, analysts expected an incremental improvement in the preliminary April S&P Global PMI data this morning.
Consensus was right as both Services and Manufacturing surveys signaled an uptick in April
US business activity growth recovered slightly in April having slowed to near-stagnation in March following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. However, the overall pace of expansion remained subdued, most notably in the services economy where demand faltered.
Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 51.3 (March: 49.8). 2-month high.
Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 54.0 (March: 52.3). 47-month high.
Source: Bloomberg
“A rebound in business output growth in April is good news after the near-stagnation seen in March," but, warns Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:
"...over the past three months we have seen the weakest expansion of output recorded since the start of 2024 with the war in the Middle East squarely to blame."
The April PMI is broadly consistent with the economy struggling to manage annualized growth in excess of 1%, with the vast service sector acting as the principal drag.
"Orders for services ranging from travel and tourism to financial products barely rose as the war caused hesitancy for spending among both household and business customers, with surging prices and the prospect of higher borrowing costs acting as a further deterrent."
There was better news from manufacturing:
"here an expansion of output and orders could be partly traced to the building of safety stocks, with survey respondents reporting “panic” and “emergency” buying ahead of price hikes and supply shortages in echoes of the problems seen during the pandemic.
While there is no prices paid (nor other subcomponents) released in the flash PMI, the market is looking for signs of inflation and margin pressures in the press release.
Prices paid have already picked up in the March ISM, although less so far in the PMI surveys.
And, as Williamson notes, not surprisingly, prices are already spiking higher in this environment, and not just for energy but for a wide variety of goods and services.
"The overall inflation picture is now the most worrying for almost four years."
Balancing the risks of inflation lifting sharply higher against the underlying weakness of economic growth presents policymakers at the Fed with a growing dilemma.
However, as Williamson concludes, it will likely be increasingly hard to make a case for rate cuts if inflation follows the path signalled by the PMI while the economy continues to eke out only modest growth.
Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 09:53Not only did President Trump this week unilaterally extend the Iran ceasefire by at least three to five days (upon initial announcement), but he has refrained from ordering new attacks against the Islamic Republic even as the IRGC navy continued intercepting foreign tankers.
By Tuesday, he had extended the ceasefire indefinitely, writing on Truth Social: "Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal."
Iranian state mediaOn Wednesday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) had targeted two cargo vessels - the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas, a Greek-owned ship, and forced them to Iran's coast, effectively seizing them.
Iran's interceptions of 'unauthorized' vessels as it tries to maintain its side of the blockade has not abated, but has only intensified, and yet there's no bombs away from the US or Israel.
This has left pundits wondering why the act of brazen tanker seizures by Iran does not constitute a ceasefire violation in Washington's eyes. Both the US President and his Press Secretary have responded and explained:
President Trump told Fox News on Wednesday that there was "no time pressure" on holding a new round of talks or on the cease-fire, and "no timeline" for ending the war. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told Fox separately that Mr. Trump did not view Iran’s reported ship seizures as a violation of the cease-fire.
The reported seizures happened after the U.S. Navy prevented dozens of ships from leaving or accessing Iranian ports as part of a blockade ordered by Mr. Trump.
"These were not US or Israeli ships, these were two international vessels," Leavitt had sought to clarify in her comments to Fox News, explaining that the naval blockade the US has imposed "continues to be incredibly effective."
Despite that on the US side of the blockade - which aims to halt any vessel going in or out that visited or plans to visit Iranian ports (or which is under sanctions) - it remains that shipping companies are mostly keeping vessels away from the strait due to the lingering immense risk. Thus far, at least a couple dozen of acceptable and US 'approved' ships have made it out based on CENTCOM permission
.@PressSec: "Iran has gone from having the most lethal navy in the Middle East to now acting like a bunch of pirates. They don’t have control over the Strait—this is piracy that we are seeing on display, and the naval blockade that the United States has imposed continues to be… pic.twitter.com/yCnQGfIe2c
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 22, 2026All of this also comes after Wednesday reports that Iran had fired on a third ship, after already interdicting at least two, amid threats to continue to keep up the pressure and inflict pain on the global economy.
Some pundits have highlighted that it is the White House side that keeps backing off its threats to bomb Iran, while moving the goalposts of what constitutes a breach of the ceasefire. Perhaps US officials are increasingly aware they are on the brink of entering an intractable quagmire, but perhaps it's already too late.
Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 09:40Pot stocks are moving higher in premarket trading in New York after the Justice Department and DEA announced that FDA-approved marijuana-based drugs and state-licensed medical marijuana products will be moved immediately from Schedule I to Schedule III. This is a major shift in how the federal government classifies these types of cannabis products.
*DOJ RECLASSIFIES MEDICAL MARIJUANA AS A LESS-DANGEROUS DRUG: AP
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 23, 2026The classification is designed to expand access to approved therapies, support state-regulated medical marijuana programs, and make research easier, while still keeping federal controls in place against black market operators.
The reclassification legitimizes medical marijuana programs already operating in 40 states. It also creates a faster DEA registration path for state-licensed medical marijuana operators and protects researchers using state-licensed cannabis products.
"The Department of Justice is delivering on President Trump’s promise to expand Americans’ access to medical treatment options," Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated in a press release.
Blanche continued, “This rescheduling action allows for research on the safety and efficacy of this substance, ultimately providing patients with better care and doctors with more reliable information.”
It appears the Trump administration is taking a two-track approach: immediate relief and policy clarity for medical marijuana and researchers, while also setting up a faster legal roadmap toward broader federal reclassification later.
The news sent marijuana stocks soaring in premarket trading:
Canopy Growth (CGC): $1.48, up about 7%
Tilray Brands (TLRY): $8.50, up about 8%
Aurora Cannabis (ACB): $4.01, up about 5.5%
Cronos Group (CRON): $3, up about 7%
Organigram Global (OGI): $1.67, up about 5%
SNDL (SNDL): $1.77, up about 6.6%
Village Farms (VFF): $3.31, up about 7%
Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), which holds several of the major cannabis names listed above, is up nearly 6% in premarket trading. MJ remains flat year-to-date but has rallied 33% over the past month.
Related:
Late last year:
Trump is on a roll:
DoJ noted, "Today’s order is reflective of the Department of Justice’s continued dedication to common-sense policies and the prioritization of the safety and well-being of all Americans."
Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 09:20The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals handed the Trump administration a significant legal victory Wednesday, issuing a formal injunction blocking California's No Vigilantes Act from being enforced against federal law enforcement officers. The court ruled that the state law - which required non-uniformed federal agents to visibly display identification while performing their duties - likely violates the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution.
Carlin Stiehl/Los Angeles Times via Getty ImagesThe No Vigilantes Act, part of a two-bill package signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in September, was California's legislative response to immigration enforcement operations in Los Angeles.
The Trump administration had filed suit in November, contending the law created real and immediate dangers for ICE officers already facing what it described as harassment, doxing, and threats of physical violence. The Department of Justice argued that federal agents must retain discretion over their own safety protocols. "Denying federal agencies and officers that choice would chill federal law enforcement and deter applicants for law enforcement positions," the Justice Department wrote in its lawsuit.
The law's companion piece, the No Secret Police Act, had previously been blocked by a federal district court in February on the grounds that it discriminated against federal interests by applying the mask ban exclusively to federal officers.
"The No Vigilantes Act responds to troubling immigration enforcement activities in which masked agents have seized people off the street without showing an agency name, personal identification, or badge number, alongside a rise in law enforcement impersonation cases and efforts in other states to recruit bounty hunters for immigration enforcement," State Sen. Sasha Renée Pérez (D-Pasadena), who authored the legislation said back in September, adding that the measure would "help rebuild the community's trust."
The court clearly didn’t see it that way.
The 9th Circuit's three-judge panel found that “The United States is likely to succeed on the merits of its claim that § 10 of the No Vigilantes Act violates the Supremacy Clause because § 10 attempts to directly regulate the United States in its performance of governmental functions.”
The court further determined that all other preliminary injunction factors favored the federal government, clearing the way for the injunction to take effect pending further court order.
BREAKING: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has issued an injunction blocking enforcement of California’s new law that requires ICE agents to unmask and wear visible ID, arguing it violates the Supremacy Clause because it “attempts to directly regulate the United States in its… pic.twitter.com/jedIEO0z2N
— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) April 22, 2026The outcome was not unexpected. During oral arguments in early March, 9th Circuit judges were openly skeptical of California’s position that the identification requirement was analogous to generally applicable laws such as speed limits. The state argued the law treated all law enforcement equally, but the panel clearly didn’t buy the argument that such framing could justify states directly regulating federal operations.
Bill Essayli, First Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Central District of California, did not understate what the ruling meant in a post on X. "Huge legal victory this morning in the Ninth Circuit, where the court permanently enjoined California's unconstitutional mask law targeting federal agents," he wrote.
The use of "permanently" may be premature — the injunction technically remains pending further court order — but the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution is quite clear, and there’s little reason to believe the No Vigilantes Act will survive.
Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 09:05