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"US Can't Bomb Its Way To Victory": Scotiabank Maps Bessent's Coming Economic Hammer On Iran

Brent crude futures ended last week near $88.50 a barrel as traders awaited details of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's planned escalation campaign of the economic war against Iran.

Bessent said Friday that Washington would announce unprecedented economic-isolation measures next week, warning that the coming pressure campaign would be unlike anything "seen in the history of economic isolation on a country."

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced upcoming unprecedented economic measures against Iran amid ongoing blockades of its ports pic.twitter.com/OV3etgd2k0

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) August 14, 2026

For clarity on Bessent's upcoming economic-isolation operation against Iran, Derek Holt, head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank in Toronto, provided clients with an assessment in which Bessent's warning could signal a move well beyond sanctioning shadow tankers and refiners, toward dismantling the entire financial network supporting Iranian oil exports.

Holt explained:

WHAT COULD BESSENT MEAN?

What could Bessent do to economically isolate Iran further that has "never been seen"?

• Target China and India: China is the main buyer of Iranian oil and is involved in undermining US sanctions. The US sanctions some individual Chinese entities and, in April, announced sanctions against Chinese "Teapot" refineries (here). The US could step up its actions by sanctioning all Chinese banks, this time including large institutions, and blocking their access to the US and global financial systems. That would push China further away from the SWIFT system and block access to correspondent and other forms of banking. It could block access to US dollar funding markets. This would very likely enrage China and risk multiple forms of retaliation and escalation.

• Broaden the scope of sanctions on Iran: This would extend the scope to any global group, company or entity involved in buying, financing, insuring or shipping Iranian oil. Looking at you, global banks, currency exchanges, commodity traders, shippers, etc. Actions under this category would aim to entirely thwart the sale of oil from Iran to China in yuan and its conversion into dollars and other currencies via exchange houses in Iran and elsewhere. You target other Middle Eastern nations facilitating this trade by blocking their access to dollar funding and global banking markets, such as Dubai's one-foot-in-and-one-foot-out stance on the war, which continues to facilitate Iranian transactions. Dubai fancies itself a financial center; you destroy such ambitions.

• Target Iranian crypto assets: This Treasury announcement last month targeted individuals and entities under a specific Iranian person's name. The US could broaden this action to include freezing access to all Iranian global holdings of crypto, gold, real estate, foreign accounts, etc.

• Target global ports: Any foreign port that facilitates trade and transactions with shipping companies that transited Iranian ports could be targeted.

He continued:

And there may well be other creative options in scale and scope. The broad point is to escalate the economic and financial blockade of the Iranian economy and financial system by enveloping all parts of the global economy, namely China, and the global financial system that allow Iran to continue to sell oil and access funding markets.

Would it work? I'm not sure. Iran knows suffering. Iran is used to being a pariah. Iran still has friends in low places. Iran has its own means of escalating, including unleashing unspeakable terror.

The consequences to the global economy and financial system could also limit or entirely thwart the chances of success. I'm sure they know the risks, but Treasury would sharply amplify tensions with China and India and could potentially cripple individual banks while not ruling out increased systemic risk within the broader financial system. Cutting off access to dollar funding markets could destabilize major players in the financial system. The spillover effects through a complicated web of connections shouldn't be treated lightly.

The US is finally getting that it can't just bash and bomb its way to victory against Iran. I'm not sure it gets the limitations and risks that could be associated with escalating broader measures at an all-encompassing global level. It could well take a bungled war that the US and Israel entered without much thought, without a strategy and without an exit plan, while not consulting Congress or allies, and compound the missteps even further and potentially more seriously.

For context, China buys more than 90% of Iran's oil exports, making it the most likely target in any effort by Bessent to cut Tehran's energy revenues. But the escalating economic war would carry significant risks. Sanctions on large Chinese companies or financial institutions could escalate tensions with Beijing ahead of a planned meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping.

Also removing discounted Iranian crude from the global market could also tighten supplies and push already elevated Brent and WTI prices higher.

Professional subscribers can read more institutional commentary on the Gulf region, covering energy markets and policies, at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 08:45

Futures Rise On Fresh Push Higher In Tech

Futures are higher again, just a few basis points away from a new all time high, led by Tech as the week starts with Semis / Memory / AI themes bid globally, as small-caps are fractionally in the red. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.1% higher, while Nasdaq futures climb 0.5% after strong revenue growth at Anthropic helped boost optimism around artificial intelligence and bolstered the view that massive spending on artificial intelligence will be sustained. Semis, Memory, and Mag7 are all higher with Software down. Cyclicals are mixed with Indu / Mats leading Fins / Discretionary, but the cohort is lead Defensives, which are dragged by HC and Staples. It is a light macro week so the positive Tech inertia may continue into NVDA earnings next week. Bond yields are flat to down 2bp as the yield curve bull steepens; higher yields remain a risk with Fed Minutes this week and Jackson Hole next week. USD continues to its decline touching a three-month low as rate hike odds faded, while commodities are bid up with strength across the 3 complexes. Crude prices appear to be holding in a range on increased cover flows in the MidEast and weaker Chinese demand. In metals, copper, silver, and palladium are the standouts. US economic data calendar includes August Empire manufacturing (8:30am), NAHB housing market index (10am) and June TIC flows (4pm). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Amazon +1.2%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia +0.6%, Apple +0.3%, Tesla +0.1%, Meta Platforms -0.2%, Microsoft -0.7%)

• AI-linked stocks are rising after Anthropic PBC told prospective investors that its preliminary second quarter revenue was $11.5 billion, an at least 14-fold increase versus the same period a year ago. Marvell Technology (MRVL) +2%, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) +2%, Sandisk (SNDK) +4%
• Diana Shipping (DSX) is up 9% after the company pulled its offer for all the outstanding shares in Genco Shipping & Trading it doesn’t already own. The company said that Genco’s board had unrealistic price expectations.
• EyePoint (EYPT) said its experimental treatment for an eye disease failed to meet its primary goal in a late-stage trial. After being halted shares resumed lower by 66%
• L3Harris Technologies (LHX) slips 3% after the defense contractor replaced Chief Executive Officer Christopher Kubasik over conduct that “was not consistent with the values of the company.”
• Macy’s (M) is up 2% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a stake in the company in a filing.
• Target Hospitality (TH) gains 3% after Morgan Stanley started coverage on the provider of modular housing with an overweight rating, saying the company is poised to benefit from an AI buildout that is increasingly rural.

AI-linked stocks are reasserting their leadership after a volatile July that saw investors rotate into economically sensitive sectors. Fresh evidence of surging demand for the technology came from Claude chatbot maker Anthropic whose Q2 revenue jumped at least 14-fold from a year earlier, Bloomberg News reported late Friday, largely on the back of the new faded tokenmaxxing craze. The Claude chatbot maker posted preliminary revenue of more than $11.5 billion, plus positive adjusted operating income. In other AI news, Alibaba’s open-weight models have accumulated more than 3 billion global downloads in the past six months, eclipsing Meta, Alphabet and domestic peers to become the world’s No. 1 AI model.

AI infrastructure stocks, rather than adopters, have so far driven market performance because of limited visibility about which companies will be able to turn investments into tangible gains in productivity and earnings, according to Goldman strategists. On the subject of earnings, Big Tech is powering profits for corporate America, with S&P 500 Index EPS rising 31% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the strongest gain outside of recoveries from major recessions in Bloomberg Intelligence data going back to 1992.

“We continue to see strong risk appetite among institutional investors, particularly in areas where earnings are strongest, such as US equities and technology,” said Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets.

More broadly, reasons to be wary about stocks are quickly disappearing and a Goldilocks scenario looks increasingly likely — which is why it’s a perfect time to hedge against a market priced for perfection, notes today’s Taking Stock. Equity dispersion continues to drop, closing last week at the lowest level since early April, while financial conditions continue to track the most accommodative levels in 30 years.

Behind the bullish metrics lies the potential for instability, with the market having recently seen a sharp reversal from a broad bid for index volatility and skew to a FOMO-fueled demand for upside calls.

In other assets, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest outflows since the end of June, with a net $389.7 million drained in the week of Aug. 10. Covert oil flows out of the Persian Gulf are helping keep global prices in check, while copper is heading toward a record high on the LME as supply tensions build.

The health of US consumers will be in focus this week when retailing giants such as Walmart Inc. and Home Depot Inc. report earnings. Recent data showed spending cooled in July after a strong first half, while households are also getting concerned about worsening business conditions and rising inflation.

“Any signs of stress in the outlook, against a backdrop of slower hiring and higher borrowing costs, could challenge the resilient growth narrative,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro credit at Nuveen.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July monetary policy meeting could also attract interest. Traders have pushed back expectations for the next quarter-point Fed hike to January, though bond investors are also growing worried about heavy government borrowing and persistent fiscal concerns.

“The recent run of softer economic data has reduced the urgency for near-term tightening, so the minutes may carry less weight,” Cooper said. Still, “in a regime of the Fed keeping their cards close to the chest, any signals could be of outsized importance.”

The latest 13F filings show how one-sided AI long positioning was into July’s rout. As markets recover, the next 13F season will be a fascinating conviction test, notes Bloomberg’s Anthony Stephens. Other filings reveal Berkshire Hathaway increased its holdings in Delta Air Lines and Alphabet during the second quarter, mining tycoon Gina Rinehart bought eight million shares of SpaceX and Third Point exited Meta and Nvidia.

It’s a light macro and corporate tape to start the week, but further out traders will eye more clues on the state of the consumer with earnings from Walmart, Home Depot and Target in the coming days. Fed meeting minutes are also on the way this week, along with PMI readings in the US and across Europe.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.1%, with miners and tech outperforming as rising copper prices lifted miners while chip stocks gained after Anthropic reported a strong revenue surge for the second quarter. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Chip stocks were among the top gainers in Europe on Monday after Anthropic reported a strong revenue surge for the second quarter, while software stocks slipped across the board
• Argenx jumped as much as 10%, the most in more than a year, after the company announced positive late-stage trial results for its experimental myositis treatment
• Thungela Resources shares jumped as much as 12%, the most since March, after the coal mining company reported interim results showing significant earnings growth from a year earlier
• Accelleron gained as much as 10%, the most in more than five months, after Berenberg said the turbocharger manufacturer’s current growth cycle is stronger and more durable than previously modeled, and upgraded to buy
• Sandoz shares climbed as much as 3.5% to a record high after the Swiss maker of generics and biosimilar drugs announced a collaboration agreement with Shanghai Henlius Biotech. ZKB says the deal underlines the company’s “strong position in the global distribution of biosimilars”
• SIG shares fell as much as 27%, the most since the company’s 2018 IPO, after it said in a statement it had appointed Ann-Kristin Erkens as its new CEO, replacing Mikko Keto

Asian stocks advanced at the start of the week as semiconductor stocks gained for a sixth straight session. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%, led by Kioxia, Tencent and Alibaba, after dropping as much as 0.2% earlier in the session. The benchmarks in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong climbed, while an Asian semiconductor gauge advanced 1.4% to extend its longest win streak since June 22. With AI-bellwether South Korea shut for a holiday, regional tech stocks showed renewed strength following a robust US earnings season, Anthropic’s second-quarter report, and the unwinding of leveraged bets. The China Star 50 Index rose more than 4% and Hang Seng Tech Index gained the most this month. Japan’s benchmark Topix snapped an eight-day win streak, after data showed economic growth unexpectedly slowed in the three months through June. Thai stocks climbed after its second-quarter GDP rose 1.9% from a year earlier, faster than the 1.8% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey but slower than 2.8% growth in the first quarter. Alibaba gained 1.9% in Hong Kong after disclosing a deal to sell its gaming arm and touting claims of more than 3 billion downloads for its open AI model. Meanwhile, margin balances in China and Korea have returned to 2025 levels and are rising again as sidelined funds re‑enter the market, Marvin Chen of Bloomberg Intelligence wrote in a note. 

“Technology stocks strengthened, while the decline in their day-to-day volatility is encouraging investors who had stepped back from the sector to selectively re-enter,” said. Rajeev De Mello, a global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management.

In FX, the selloff in the greenback extends with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.3% after earlier falling to its lowest level since mid-May.  USD/JPY fell as much as 0.6% to 158.60, it recovered to trade at 159.37 in the New York afternoon, holding close to the closely watched level of 160. There’s a less than 30% chance that the Fed will raise its policy rate in September, down from about 70% odds at the end of last month, according to overnight-indexed swaps. The Aussie and Swiss franc are outperforming against the greenback, each rising 0.5%.

In rates, treasuries price action is steady over Asia, early London with front end outperforming slightly, steepening curves. WTI futures and stocks trade slightly higher on the day, follows fresh fighting in Lebanon while Washington prepares new economic measures against Iran.  US 2-year yields outperform, trading richer by 1bp on the day while rest of the curve is little change vs. Friday closing levels. Steepening of curve sees 2s10s and 5s30s trade wider by 1bp and 1.2bp on the day. US 10-year yields trade unchanged around 4.69% with gilts outperforming by 1.2bp in the sector. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals. Dealers estimate around $20 billion in new deals this week, with the bulk of issuance expected to be front-loaded. Gilts lead modest gains in European government bonds. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $8 billion 30-year TIPS (Thursday). 

In commodities, Brent crude futures rise 0.8% to around $89 a barrel. Precious metals climb, with spot silver up over 1%. WTI futures trade up around 0.4%, just off session highs with S&P futures up around 0.15% vs. Friday close. 

US economic data calendar includes August Empire manufacturing (8:30am), NAHB housing market index (10am) and June TIC flows (4pm). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Trump Threatens to Bomb Oman If It Gets in Way of US: Fox 
• Fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon over the weekend marked the latest setback in efforts to end parallel conflicts in the Middle East: BBG
• Trump orders Pentagon to scale back joint exercises with South Korea: RTRS
• North Korea denounces upcoming US-South Korea drills, vows stronger nuclear deterrence: RTRS
• Top US commander visits aircraft carrier, Gaza talks in Egypt and other Mideast news: AP
• US pulls last aircraft carrier in Asia as Trump focuses on Iran and the Western Hemisphere: AP
• Trump’s Venezuela Fixer Is Promoting ‘America First’ Oil Deals: BBG
• Iran says two French embassy employees barred from returning: RTRS
• China’s economy got off to a sluggish start in the second half of the year, reviving pressure on policymakers: BBG
• Alphabet is looking to raise about A$5 billion ($3.6 billion) in what would be its debut bond offering in Australia: BBG
• Trump crypto firm backs venture offering AI from restricted Chinese companies: RTRS
• Jane Street Lost $15 Billion in Its First Down Month in a Decade: BBG
• US to tell partners they must pick sides in AI race with China: RTRS
• Goldman Sachs said market bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes are still too aggressive: BBG
• Binance gave Moscow client details used to charge Russian over Ukraine donations: RTRS
• Copper Squeeze Builds With Spreads Surging and Price Near Record: BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mixed, albeit with a mostly positive bias, following a quiet weekend of macro newsflow and amid geopolitical uncertainty as the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire. Participants also digested a deluge of earnings and the latest data releases, while markets in South Korea are closed in observance of Liberation Day. ASX 200 was subdued as weakness in consumer discretionary, financials and real estate offset the gains in miners, resources and materials, while there is a slew of earnings releases, including 'big 4' bank NAB, which posted higher profits but noted cooling home loan demand. Nikkei 225 price action was choppy following disappointing GDP data, which could support the argument for the BoJ to refrain from hiking rates next month, although money markets are still leaning towards the central bank resuming rate increases at the September conclave. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive amid a slew of earnings and with the advances in Hong Kong led by chipmaker SMIC, while platform companies such as JD.com and Alibaba were also underpinned, with the latter helped by the sale of its gaming arm and news its AI models hit 3bln downloads.

Top Asian News

• China's NBS said the external environment remains complex but they are going to continue expanding domestic demand, however some firms face operating difficulties. Additionally, NBS said the country has solid conditions to achieve its annual growth targets.

European bourses start the week mixed but in light volumes, given the Summer lull. Not much in terms of drivers to give a clear direction, with weekend geopolitical newsflow light. The 60-day US-Iran MoU deadline expires today, although the expiry does not automatically trigger a resumption of hostilities. Iran's Foreign Ministry held its weekly press conference, in which they said no talks have begun due to Washington's violation of the MoU, while stating that talks with Oman continue. Sectors highlight the mixed picture. Basic Resources outperform, given the lift in 3M LME copper prices to new ATHs, while Tech is supported following reports from Bloomberg that Anthropic reported Q2 revenue of over USD 11.5bln (prev. 0.79bln Y/Y). To the downside is Optimised Personal Care, Food Beverages & Tobacco and Retail

Top European News

• JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon reportedly warned UK Chancellor Healey against creating a more hostile tax environment for banks, the FT reported. Dimon said that higher taxes drive jobs away, using the decline in financial roles in New York as an example, the report added.
• Fitch affirmed the UK at ‘AA-‌’‌; outlook Stable.

FX

• Continued USD weakness throughout the morning saw DXY fall to a 99.30 trough, its lowest since 5th June, while EUR/USD eclipsed the 1.16 mark, not seen since 17th June. The move was gradual and over the course of roughly an hour, the initial downticks without a driver, but later weakness seen around remarks from the Iranian Foreign Ministry which signalled commitment to the diplomatic process; remarks which also modestly weighed on Brent at the time. Analysts expect the USD weakness to continue, ING suggesting the USD can “probably trade to the soft side all week”, while others highlight the soft July data series; for now, DXY -0.2%, the level to watch below is the 200 DMA just below 99.20.
• Action elsewhere is very quiet, G10s mostly move in tandem with USD weakness.
• GBP/USD +0.2%, off the back of the weaker USD with UK catalysts light, Cable trading just above 1.3560, above all significant DMAs. Over the weekend, FT reported that Jamie Dimon warned the Treasury against raising bank taxes, a report which highlights the proximity of the Autumn budget. GBP is primed for a busy week of data, Tuesday sees Jobs data, Wednesday is inflation, Friday is Retail Sales.
• Low yielders are among the best performers as some likely carry USD positions unwind. USD/CHF -0.4%, testing the 50 DMA, USD/SEK -0.4% ahead of the Riksbank this week. High-beta currencies are also doing well on the back of easing Fed expectations which has helped the risk environment; markets now assign a 30% probability of tightening in September, last week was c. 50%.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks are trading mixed this morning, with USTs (+2+ ticks) around recent lows, whilst Bunds (-8 ticks) move a touch lower. As it stands, USTs hold towards the upper end of a 108-16+ to 108-24+ range. Macro newsflow was lacklustre over the weekend, with focus ultimately on the expiration of the US-Iran MoU, which is set to occur today. Whether there is a fresh round of hostilities remains to be seen, but the risk remains (a full piece and scenario analysis can be found on the board at 07:05 BST).
• As it stands, US yields are lower across the curve, with mild underperformance in the front-end/belly of the curve; a continuation of the action seen last week following the soft US data. ING opines that the 10yr yield could be subject to upward pressure for some time, citing fiscal deterioration and continued focus on the JPY intervention story. The Dutch bank concludes by writing that “we see yields still gravitating more toward the upper end of the recent range”. For reference, the 10yr hit a high of 4.73% on 11 August vs current 4.67%.
• Key US data is lacking for the remainder of the day, and in fact for the remainder of the week. The FOMC Minutes of the July meeting will provide a better understanding of how policymakers are thinking about the policy rate ahead of the September meeting; as it stands, money markets assign a 26% chance of a hike next month.
• Bunds are trading with very mild losses this morning, whilst Gilts are flat. The lack of macro newsflow and pertinent European/UK data has led to tentative action so far, but a slew of UK data is dotted throughout the week, which will be key in determining BoE pricing. As it stands, money markets assign a 24% chance of a hike in Sept, and fully price in a 25bps hike by year-end. On the fiscal side of things, JPMorgan’s Dimon warned the UK Chancellor against raising bank taxes and creating a more hostile tax environment for banks.

Commodities

• Energy futures are mostly subdued within recent ranges with a lack of notable geopolitics from over the weekend, and with the US-Iran MoU effectively lapsing today (full analysis on the Newsquawk board). Briefly, the 60-day US-Iran Islamabad MoU expiry does not automatically trigger a resumption of hostilities. Iran argues there is no ceasefire left to extend because the US already violated the agreement, while there is currently no confirmed deal to extend or replace the MoU. The key market focus is on whether the expiry results in renewed negotiations, additional US sanctions, further military escalation or progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The morning saw commentary from the Iranian Foreign Ministry which reiterated recent comments but prompted modest losses in the complex as Tehran said talks with Oman are ongoing.
• WTI and Brent trade higher by 0.40-0.80/bbl intraday, with the former within a USD 80.80-82.16/bbl range, and the latter in a USD 88.01-89.40/bbl range. WTI sees slightly deeper losses than Brent, with the Baker Hughes rig count on Friday pointing to expanding US drilling activity. Elsewhere, Dutch TTF bucks the trend with some gains as demand props up prices as Europe refills winter storage. Dutch TTF is firmer by some 1.5% intraday and resides just above EUR 62/MWh after finding resistance around EUR 63/MWh earlier.
• Precious metals are supported by subdued energy prices, in turn weighing on inflation expectations and thus the Dollar. Spot gold topped its 100 DMA once again (USD 4,386/oz) and resides in a current USD 4,367-4,416/oz range after topping Friday’s USD 4,397/oz peak, and vs last week’s USD 4,449/oz high. Spot silver trades towards the upper end of a USD 65.60-66.22/oz range, vs last week’s USD 66.80/oz peak.
• Base metals are similarly propped up, with 3M LME copper hitting record highs of USD 14,387.60/t (vs intraday USD 14,164.33/t). Another supporting factor for base metals could be the downbeat, delayed Chinese Activity data, which printed worse-than-expected across the board and further raises the argument for more stimulus from Beijing.
• At least 2 Asian refiners have asked Saudi Aramco if they can take their oil cargoes from Egypt's Sidi Kerir port, instead of through Yanbu, Bloomberg reported.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Hamas leaders in Egypt to discuss a Gaza peace deal, while it was reported by Axios that the meeting was said to be very productive and Hamas leaders reaffirmed their commitment to disarmament and demilitarisation of the Gaza Strip.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry said that the MoU signed with the US does not stipulate a 60-day deadline and that no talks have begun with the US due to violations. The Ministry added that there are ongoing contacts with Qatar, which is playing an influential role in de-escalation efforts. On talks with Oman, they said talks are ongoing but that they are long due to the complexity of the subject, multiple actors involved and countries seeking to undermine the process.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran had not decided to resume talks with the US, and that Washington must meet conditions on the strait in order for shipping to resume in the waterway, according to an interview with Shahrara News.
• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the Strait of Hormuz will be opened and closed only under Iran's command, while he warned that as long as the US does not accept the reality of defeat and stop indulging in fantasies, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade.
• IRGC senior commander said though Iran's military actions have remained strictly defensive since the outbreak of hostilities, the armed forces are fully prepared to adopt an offensive posture if necessary, while he cautioned adversaries to expect strategic surprises.
• A high-ranking source said that Bab al-Mandab is closed to Saudi ships in both directions, adding that the "blockade-for-blockade" policy remains in place and will continue, Arabic TV reported.
• Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) security said two drones attacked the KRG PM's office and the residence of the head of the Protection Agency, adding that the attacks were launched from Iranian territory and no casualties were reported.
• Iran and Oman seem to be moving closer to reaching an agreement regarding management of the key waterway, despite increasing ship attacks, while a finalisation of the shipping map is said to form part of a wider accord to govern shipping through the strait.
• Only five commodity vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and none on Sunday, according to shiptracking data from Kpler.
• Qatar's PM spoke with Jordan's Foreign Minister and discussed diplomatic efforts aimed at easing regional tensions.
• Israel conducted artillery attacks on the city of Mansouri in southern Lebanon.
• Yemen conducted strikes on Saudi-linked mercenary targets in Mokha and Marib, destroying weapon depots and command facilities, according to Tehran Times citing a statement on Saturday.
• Yemeni government forces said Houthi militias launched a new attack with two missiles in Bab al-Mandab.

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

• EU foreign policy chief Kallas announced plans to introduce the most extensive sanctions package against Russia since the beginning of the war in the coming months.
• Ukraine's Naftogaz said production has been lost following Russian attacks.

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump posted "Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea.... Therefore, and based on the fact that it is too late to cancel, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to substantially reduce the Joint Military Exercises!"
• South Korean President Lee called for a sit-down with North Korea to pursue peaceful coexistence and wants to transform the Korean peninsula’s unstable armistice into a peace regime.

US Event Calendar

 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we enter the second half of August, you’ll have Henry and I for company over the next couple of weeks as Jim makes his regular summer trip to the Alps. Many market participants, including Jim, will have been happy to see some signs of a summer lull emerging last week, as the VIX volatility index fell to a 2026 low on Friday.

However, while global equity indices are at or close to all-time highs, we’re seeing more challenging August crosswinds playing out in bond markets. Expectations for an imminent Fed rate hike have been pulled back, but this has been accompanied by a significant US curve steepening, with the backdrop of higher oil prices, elevated fiscal deficits, and demand for capital from the AI investment boom putting upward pressure on yields. The resulting long-end sell-off has also been a global affair, with 10yr OAT yields ending last week at their highest level since 2009 and the 30yr bund yields reaching a post-2011 high of 3.73% (see the full weekly recap at the end).

Bond markets could face further tests this week, with events including the flash August PMIs (Friday), minutes of the July FOMC meeting (Wednesday), as well as China’s monthly activity data a little later this morning. Meanwhile, this week’s 20yr Treasury auction (Wednesday) may become the most expensive Treasury bond issuance in the past 25 years – the current post-2001 high is a 5.245% yield at a 20yr auction in October 2023 and 20yr yields were 5.26% as of Friday.

The higher yield story is also playing out in Asia this morning, with 10yr JGB yields trading +3.3bps higher to a post-1996 high of 2.93%. That increase comes even as this morning’s GDP data showed Japan’s economy expanded by a slower-than-expected +1.1% annualised in Q2 (vs +2.0% expected, +1.9% previous). The slowing came amid disappointing domestic activity, as business investment fell by -1.2% QoQ, while private consumption saw zero growth (vs. +0.4% exp.). Next in focus will be the national CPI release on Friday, but for now markets are still pricing a 79% chance of a BoJ hike in September.

Following Japan’s GDP data, the Nikkei (+0.30%) is slightly higher but underperforming gains in China’s markets including the CSI 300 (+0.76%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.84% ) as well as the Hang Seng (+1.61%) in Hong Kong. Equity futures are also advancing, with NASDAQ futures (+0.35%) leading those on the S&P 500 (+0.10%) and Europe’s Stoxx 50 (+0.30%) this morning. In other markets, Brent crude (+0.09%) is little changed at $88.60/bbl this morning in the absence of material weekend news around Iran, after a +5.95% rise last week, including +1.67% on Friday as Trump suggested he’d put more pressure on Iran’s economy. Meanwhile, 10yr Treasury yields (-1.2bps) are slightly lower this morning after last week’s sell-off. Fed fund futures are pricing just a 30% chance of a September rate cut as I type, continuing the pullback that started following the softer July jobs report on August 7 and persisted with the fairly sanguine CPI and PPI prints last week.

That Fed pricing will be in focus with the minutes of the July FOMC meeting due on Wednesday. Given Chair Warsh has stepped back from offering policy guidance, the minutes may shed extra light on how the Fed is weighing inflation risks as well as their urgency to act should those risks remain elevated. Chair Warsh described the July discussion as a “good family fight” following the meeting, which saw three dissents in favour of a 25bps hike. While the minutes will be slightly stale after last week’s relatively tame CPI and PPI data, the +0.18% MoM reading our economists now foresee for July core PCE inflation still translates to a +3.2% YoY pace. So while the inter-meeting inflation data has likely reduced the urgency for imminent action by the Fed, they are far from providing sufficient confidence that inflation is trending back to the Fed’s objective.

Investors will also be watching the details of the FOMC discussion in the context of the sharp curve steepening we’ve seen since the July Fed meeting. The 2s10s slope has steepened by +20bps since July 28, its sharpest 13-session rise since the post-Liberation Day Treasury sell off last April.

Turning to this week’s data in more detail, the highlight will come with the flash August PMIs on Friday, including those for the US, Eurozone, Germany, France, UK and Japan. The resilience in economic activity data, including the PMIs, in the face of the Iran energy shock has been an important factor in supporting continued pricing of rate hikes across the major economies. Indeed, in July the composite PMI reached its highest levels since the start of the year in both the US and the Euro area.

In other events, we’ll have the latest Riksbank decision on Thursday, which is expected to keep rates on hold for an eighth consecutive meeting. Elsewhere in Europe, we’ll have the ZEW survey in Germany on Tuesday and the ECB’s July consumer expectations survey due Friday. For the latter, our own dbDataInsights survey suggests an uptick in short-term expectations but more stable medium-term ones. Otherwise, the UK will dominate the European data calendar, with the July inflation print on Wednesday, labour market data on Tuesday and retail sales on Friday. For the CPI print, our UK economists expect headline at 2.92% YoY and core CPI at 2.54%.

Before all that, the focus will be on China July activity data, including retail sales and industrial production, which will be out an hour or so after this hits your inboxes. The release comes as China’s domestic demand growth has been lacklustre in recent months, putting the reflation that has emerged since late 2025 at risk. Underwhelming domestic growth has also contributed to the underperformance in China’s equity market, with the main indices essentially flat YTD, in contrast to a +13.7% rise for the S&P 500, +11.1% for the Stoxx 600 and +36.5% for the Nikkei.

As the earnings season begins to wind down, the spotlight will be on the US retailers Home Depot (Tuesday), Target, TJX (Wednesday) and Walmart (Thursday) to gauge the health of the US consumer. Other names to watch include Analog Devices and Deere in the US and Alibaba and Baidu in China.

Recapping last week now, bond markets were caught between reacting to the ongoing deadlock between Iran and the US and a string of mixed US inflation and activity data. The US economic data story ultimately dominated the narrative at the front-end, with 2yr Treasury yields falling -2.5bps over the week (+2.8bps on Friday) as markets dialled back the likelihood of a September Fed hike. That followed the July CPI and PPI prints, which saw core CPI slow to 2.5% y/y, its slowest pace since early 2021. Friday’s data was also on the softer side, including July retail sales (-0.6% m/m vs +0.1% m/m est) and the preliminary August University of Michigan consumer sentiment (51.0 vs 55.0 est).

By contrast, longer-dated yields moved higher following a sizeable sell-off on Friday, with 10yr yield up +4.7bps to 4.69% (+4.9bps Friday), whilst the 30yr yield (+5.8bps, +4.7bps on Friday) ended the week at 5.26%, less than 2bps from their post-2007 high reached in late July.
The bond sell-off was more pronounced in Europe, where 10yr bund yields rose +7.2bps to 3.20% (+7.3bps on Friday), whilst 10yr OAT yields (+12.9bps, +10.2bps on Friday) reached their highest level since 2009 at 4.04%. And in the UK, 10yr gilts (+11.6bps, +8.4bps on Friday) saw their largest weekly sell-off since May. In addition to being more sensitive to the rise in oil, European bonds weren’t helped by a +10.59% rise in front-month TTF natural gas prices (+1.67% on Friday). Meanwhile, wheat prices moved +5.47% higher (+3.37% higher on Friday) following damage to Russian export infrastructure. These moves reignited inflation concerns, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap rising +19.9bps (+4.8bps on Friday), its largest weekly gain since mid-July.

While bonds struggled, US equities put in a more positive performance. The S&P 500 rose +0.36% despite a -0.17% pullback on Friday from Thursday’s record high, with the small cap Russell 2000 (+1.12%, +0.51% Friday) also reaching a record high. Tech stocks stabilised after their recent rebound, with the Nasdaq (+0.14%, -0.28% Friday) and the Philly Semiconductor Index (+0.49%, -0.31% Friday) seeing small weekly gains, though the Mag-7 lost ground (-0.97%, -0.22% Friday). And amid the uneventful US data and a quieter August period, the VIX volatility index (-0.65pts) ended the week at a 2026 low of 14.25.

European equities were more subdued, with the STOXX 600 (-0.36%, -0.21% Friday), the CAC (-0.90%, -0.16% Friday) and the FTSE 100 (-1.38%, -0.21% Friday) falling back, though the DAX (+0.46%, +0.53% Friday) reached a new record. And in Asia, we saw strong gains for the KOSPI (+11.49%) and Nikkei (+4.74%), which saw their best weeks since May and June respectively.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 08:39

"Doctors told me my liver was going to give out," she told People in 2022, later elaborating in her memoir: "A doctor told me that if I didn't stop drinking, I'd be dead within five years.”

"I wanted get the whole of The Boys experience."

Tragic “Nashville” star Hayden Panettiere has died at the age of 36 – years after battling opioid and alcohol addiction.

Trump Says US To 'Substantially Reduce' Military Drills With S.Korea, Cites 'Very Good Relationship' With Kim

President Trump revealed Sunday he has ordered the Pentagon to scale back joint military exercises with longtime close ally South Korea, surprisingly mentioning his "very good relationship" with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as a motivating factor in the decision.

Trump said in a Truth Social posts that exercises, due to start on Monday, are costly and "send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile" to North Korea, which he said "has been unthreatening and respectful" during his time in office.

"Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea," Trump stated.

Via CNN, from historic Trump-Kim meeting during the US President's first term.

Not only did Trump have somewhat glowing things to say about Pyongyang - perhaps in an effort to again jump start the kind of direct diplomacy and meetings with Kim that marked his first term - but he at the same time denigrated some recent stances of South Korea on the global stage.

He invoked Seoul's stance on the US-Israel war on Iran, which marked a huge disappointment for the White House.

"I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, ‘No thanks!'" he said.

Still, Trump lamented that it is actually too late to cancel the drills, and so ordered War Secretary Pete Hegseth to "substantially reduce" them.

The 10-day Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise kicked off Monday, and involves tens of thousands of military personnel from the United States, South Korea participate - but also other allied countries such as Australia.

South Korea’s Ministry of Defense responded to media questions about Trump's post by saying the military exercises would "proceed as previously notified and scheduled."

Going into this past weekend North Korea issued a severe warning over the upcoming joint military exercise between the United States and South Korea, characterizing it as a rehearsal for an aggressive war and that it is is ready to respond.

North Korea's Foreign Ministry described Friday that these planned drills look different, and will be more dangerous, compared to all prior ones of the past-half decade, in that they appear offensive in nature as the exercise will focus on modern warfare tactics.

"The US announced that the forthcoming exercises are quite different from the ones of the past five years and intended to master the ability of fighting a war on the basis of the new aspects of modern warfare," the North Korea condemnation reads. 

"By doing so, it did not conceal its aim to complete preparations for the substantial military confrontation with the DPRK. This is tantamount to an admission that the exercises, which the US and the ROK describe as 'annual' and 'defensive' ones, are a rehearsal for an aggressive war," the ministry added in a statement published by Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

Beyond trying to possibly inject new life into Washington diplomacy with Pyongyang, it's unclear what the ultimate aim of Trump's conciliatory social media post is. Is he perhaps trying to signal China? Is he really just angry at Seoul? Or he's maybe worried over Kim's nuclear expanse and modernization drive, and so wishes to start dealing with that in more direction fashion?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 08:20

Ballroom dancing queen Witney Carson stopped by the Page Six studio to chat with “Virtual Real-Tea” co-host Evan Real and senior content creator Samantha Nungesser about her experience on “Dancing With the Stars: The Next Pro.” During our interview, Witney gushed over the “DWTS” spin-off’s host, Robert Irwin, with whom she won the most recent...

Ballroom dancing queen Witney Carson stopped by the Page Six studio to chat with “Virtual Real-Tea” co-host Evan Real and senior content creator Samantha Nungesser about her experience on “Dancing With the Stars: The Next Pro.” During our interview, Witney gushed over the “DWTS” spin-off’s host, Robert Irwin, with whom she won the most recent...

Despite Tarzana being placed on an warning database following the audit, the money has continued flowing, with records showing it continued receiving millions through government contracts.

The best way to understand what makes Chaim Galbut different — and, more than that, the two lives he’s trying to live — is to travel back to April.

Let us solve the mystery of the multiple versions of the second X-Files movie.

President Trump warned Oman the US will “bomb the s–t” out of them if they interfere in the simmering conflict with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

CXMT Becomes China's Most Valuable Company As UBS Calls Apple Sourcing Report A "Key Catalyst"

Shares of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China's top DRAM maker, surged 12% to a record 61.80 yuan on Monday, lifting its market capitalization to 4.13 trillion yuan. The upside is because reports that Apple is considering using CXMT memory chips, alongside continued momentum across chip stocks following last week's gains in SanDisk and Micron. 

UBS analyst Jason Milao, who covers CXMT (now China's most valuable company) with a "Buy" rating and a 70 yuan price target, wrote in a note earlier that CXMT's gains on Monday were primarily driven by the "key catalyst" of Apple sourcing optionality.

The Apple sourcing optionality for CXMT memory chips stems from multiple reports by The Wall Street Journal, which said Apple has considered using memory chips from a company blacklisted by the Pentagon over alleged ties to the People's Liberation Army amid a global memory shortage. The WSJ released an interview with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Saturday morning, who said the Trump administration does not recommend that Tim Cook's company use CXMT as a chip substitute.

Milao continued:

China A-shares traded higher Monday morning, with the CSI 300 up ~0.8%. Tech rallied as CXMT jumped 9% on Apple sourcing optionality.

Across the broader AI compute chain, H1 results have been solid, albeit largely in line, with Foxconn, Cambricon, and Hygon all delivering earnings. The setup continues to support the AI hardware trade.

He added:

Meanwhile, CXMT's rally has created additional room for the broader China tech trade. The move provides investors with a fresh anchor for domestic substitution, memory tightness, and AI hardware exposure, helping to attract capital into other high-beta technology names as the market rotates away from domestic economy-related sectors.

Analyst recommendations tracked by Bloomberg show 5 "Buy" ratings and 1 "Neutral," with a 12-month price target of 76 yuan.

 The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) has rebounded in recent weeks following a six-week drawdown.

Broader semiconductor stocks in Asia advanced, with SMIC and Hua Hong gaining more than 7% in Hong Kong. Tencent and Alibaba, meanwhile, have tumbled roughly 25% and 14%, respectively, this year as investors question AI monetization and China's soft consumer backdrop.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 07:45

Newly anointed UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham wasted no time stumbling into a national security gaffe when he exchanged messages with somebody pretending to be one of President Trump's top aides.

October is an unpredictable month and the New York Yankees are an unpredictable team.

A friend placed a call Sunday for an "unresponsive female" in "cardiac arrest," and emergency responders were unable to resuscitate the actress.

A friend placed a call Sunday for an "unresponsive female" in "cardiac arrest," but emergency responders were unable to resuscitate the actress.

GB News Host Forced From Home By Migrant Gang Death Threats

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

GB News presenter Patrick Christys was ordered by police to abandon his home in the middle of the night after a credible death threat from the Channel people-smuggling gangs he continues to expose in Calais.

The threat-to-life notice from the Metropolitan Police left Christys and his heavily pregnant wife, fellow GB News presenter Emily Carver, packing bags and fleeing to a safe house. One of the men he confronted later turned up on a London street.

A year on, the official warning remains in place and the family still has round-the-clock security.

Patrick Christys, who presents the Tonight current affairs show on GB News, has told The Mail on Sunday the threat is so serious that the Metropolitan Police ordered him to abandon his home in the small hours of the morning. https://t.co/ksSzsXiSHB via https://t.co/yKLuHcxeAT

— Xenomorph (@PetenShirl) August 16, 2026

Christys has spent years on the front line documenting the illegal migrant invasion. In May 2025 he delivered one of the most blunt on-the-ground interviews yet from the Calais camps, capturing the entitlement culture driving the crossings.

That same determination took him back to northern France last July. He found the gangs advertising openly on TikTok, then switching to WhatsApp to discuss prices, times and locations. Authorities did little. So Christys and a camera crew went and confronted them themselves.

You need to hear this. Patrick Christys went to a migrant shelter and asked why so many choose the UK over other countries like France. Their answers were brutally honest: "Because the British are good people. They give us money, free education, free housing, everything we need."... pic.twitter.com/uJZUTEKfT3

— Yossi BenYakar (@YossiBenYakar) June 11, 2026

"I realised how easy it was to track them down," he told the Mail on Sunday. "They advertise on TikTok. Then to talk about locations, times, prices, you move on to WhatsApp. Yet nothing seemed to be done. So, we decided to front them up ourselves."

By midday he had faced three smugglers and received death threats on the spot. One had a WhatsApp profile picture posing with automatic weapons.

GB News' Patrick Christys is in Calais speaking to illegal immigrants en route to the UK.

This one travelled through 7 countries so far.

Not refugees but invaders! ? pic.twitter.com/a30EckPgOE

— UK Justice Forum ?? Latest Video News Updates! (@Justice_forum) May 14, 2025

The real blow came days later. Christys was live on air when his wife called during an ad break: the police were at their flat. Someone wanted to kill him.

"I got back just after midnight on July 25. The police read out an official 'threat to life' notice," he said. "It said, 'As a result of your recent journalistic coverage of organised crime groups in northern France we are aware that members of those organised immigration crime groups are seeking to actively engage with you to cause you significant harm.'"

Officers were blunter still: get out immediately, pack a bag, do not drive the car in case it is booby-trapped, take a black cab to a safe house and do not come back.

'I know enough French to know you just called me racist!'@PatrickChristys confronts a charity group in Northern France who evade his questions, as he discovers a manual for migrants planning to illegally cross to the UK. pic.twitter.com/gKaYXX82wN

— GB News (@GBNEWS) July 21, 2025

A panic alarm was fitted the next day. The couple were later allowed home under strict conditions, told to disguise themselves if they went out. Their son George was born a few weeks later. Stepping outside the hospital for a cigarette, Christys spotted one of the Calais runners he had exposed - distinctive Palestinian-flag-style ring and all - walking straight towards him.

"He walked up to me, paused and I thought, 'This is it. He's going to do me'. We locked eyes and he held my gaze, and then walked off. I'm 100 per cent sure it was the same man."

Worse followed. Contractors arrived to remove the panic alarm. It had already been disconnected for ten days without anyone telling the family, because the police "didn't have enough."

Twelve months later the threat-to-life warning has never been lifted. GB News is paying for continuous security patrols. Christys is clear about the source: illegal migrant organised crime gangs operating both in northern France and inside Britain.

"This is personal for me," he said. "I want everyone to understand the reality of who we're letting in to our country. These human traffickers wanted to kill me in my own home while my wife was eight months pregnant. Who knows if they'd have tried to harm my wife and son in order to get to me?"

He added, "It makes me incredibly angry that we let illegals into the country - who we all pay for. Then we let those same people make millions of pounds trafficking yet more illegals to Britain. They feel so emboldened, they thought they could kill a TV journalist in his own home and get away with it."

GB News' @PatrickChristys & his wife Emily @CarverEmily left their property in the early hours of the morning after threats from Channel people smugglers, who wanted to kill him.

He was once tracked down in a London street after exposing the gangs. A colossal Uniparty fail.... pic.twitter.com/snNi78bou9

— David Atherton (@daveatherton) August 16, 2026

In his own words on X, Christys thanked supporters and GB News for keeping the family safe. He said the public needed to know exactly how dangerous these gangs are.

?? Thanks for all the well wishes and thanks @GBNEWS for doing everything to help keep our family safe. It was very scary at the time. Wasn't sure whether or not to share publicly but I think the public should know how dangerous these illegal migrant gangs are. https://t.co/sAsIxiZUwE

— Patrick Christys (@PatrickChristys) August 16, 2026

Intelligence agencies would only tell the Met that the threat came from illegal migrant organised crime groups, without specifics.

The same gangs who traffic people across the Channel in rubber dinghies feel secure enough to threaten a British journalist in his own home and then appear on a London street. Police resources stretch far enough to disconnect a panic alarm without notice, yet somehow the multimillion-pound smuggling networks continue to operate in plain sight.

Christys is not staying silent. He has already said he will return to northern France. The gangs tried to scare a journalist into stopping. They failed.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 07:20

Tragic actress Hayden Panettiere suffered a cardiac arrest following a suspected overdose at a South Carolina apartment, according to chilling 911 dispatch audio.

"Ballpark To Battlefield": Ondas' M&A Blitz Builds Drone And Ground Robotics Empire

Our mid-June initiation, "How To Profit From the Asymmetric Warfare Boom," identified the leading public and private companies positioned across the drone and counter-drone space.

Our first single-name coverage focused on Unusual Machines on July 23 (read here). The stock has since surged nearly 77% (read here), signaling that Wall Street is beginning to reprice these defense names as the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Gulf-area conflict have forever changed how warfare is conducted on the modern battlefield.

As our asymmetric-warfare boom theme continues to evolve, our attention now shifts to another AI-enabled defense and drone company that has spent the year on a merger-and-acquisition spree to expand its drone offerings ahead of a massive procurement supercycle for these technologies from the Department of War.

The bull thesis surrounding Ondas, according to Roth analyst Scott Searle, is that the company's acquisition spree is transforming it into a potential next-generation defense prime and that it will soon become a major supplier of autonomous battlefield systems.

Searle initiated coverage of Ondas last week with a "Buy" rating and a $13 price target, implying roughly 40% upside from its Aug. 10 closing price of $9.31.

Searle said Ondas is evolving from a niche drone vendor into what he calls a multi-domain autonomy platform spanning counter-drone systems, intelligence and surveillance aircraft, precision-strike weapons, ground robots, and electronic warfare, encompassing the same low-cost drones, counter-drone systems, and ground robots present across multiple theaters in Eurasia.

At the center of Ondas' strategy is SkyWeaver, an AI platform developed with Palantir Technologies. SkyWeaver connects Ondas' drones, ground vehicles, sensors, and stratospheric surveillance platforms into a single command-and-control network.

All of this puts Ondas directly in the path of a massive procurement supercycle spurred by the Department of War. Searle estimates that the global market for autonomous and AI-driven defense systems exceeds $100 billion, with Ondas positioning itself to address more than $45 billion of that opportunity.

"Ondas has emerged as a viable and diversified next-gen provider for multi-domain autonomous Defense Tech solutions. Fueled by a wave of 14 acquisitions, ONDS has transformed from a point product drone vendor to a global, diversified supplier of agentic AI-enabled air, land, and cyber solutions. When combined with rapidly advancing battlefield requirements, evolving technology trends and expanding military and defense budgets, Ondas is well positioned for the $100B+ emerging TAM," Searle told clients.

Ondas has announced 14 acquisitions since October 2025, deploying roughly $2.1 billion after raising about $1.9 billion from investors. The largest of those M&A targets was the $875.8 million purchase of DZYNE Technologies, which added long-endurance aircraft, autonomous strike platforms, drone swarms, and counter-UAS systems. The transaction expanded Ondas' portfolio across all five Pentagon drone classifications, including the largest high-altitude platforms.

Other M&A events:

• Omnisys, an Israeli developer of AI-based battlefield resource optimization software, for $196.6 million.
• Mistral, a US defense contractor with access to Army and Special Operations procurement vehicles, for $175 million.
• World View, a developer of stratospheric surveillance platforms, for $150 million.
• Cyberhawk, a drone-based critical-infrastructure inspection company, for $125 million.
• SentryCS, an Israeli counter-drone cyber specialist, for $224.6 million.
• Roboteam, 4M Defense, and INDO Earth, which collectively expanded Ondas into ground robotics, military engineering, and autonomous demining.

The result is a portfolio stretching "from the ballpark to the battlefield," including systems capable of protecting military bases, borders, airports, stadiums, and critical infrastructure.

Ondas entered 2026 expecting annual revenue of between $170 million and $180 million. Following its latest acquisitions, the company now expects more than $525 million in revenue, with an annualized exit rate approaching $1 billion.

Searle forecasts revenue of $520.5 million in 2026, $1 billion in 2027, and $1.23 billion in 2028. The company has reported a backlog of $457 million, $1.6 billion in program wins, and a two-year opportunity pipeline valued at $4.3 billion.

Ondas shares have remained range-bound between roughly $6 and $14 over the past year. A sustained breakout above the upper end of that range would indicate that overhead supply has been absorbed and could clear the way for renewed momentum. Conversely, if the company's recent acquisitions fail to generate the expected revenue and integration benefits, the trading range could turn out to be a bust...

Bloomberg data shows nine analyst are "Buy" rated. The 12-month price target is $19.28. 

Ondas is another single-name drone company we are adding to our watchlist, alongside Unusual Machines, which we initiated coverage on last month before the massive spike in recent weeks.

Professional subscribers can read more about defense tech at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 06:55