A powerful and shallow 7.5-magnitude earthquake struck off Japan's northeast coast, triggering a tsunami at Kuji Port in Iwate Prefecture.
Public broadcaster NHK initially warned that a tsunami up to 10 feet high was expected to hit the Iwate area on Honshu's main island. However, so far, it has been reported to be about 31 inches high.
The quake was reported shortly before 17:00 local time, rattled towers as far away as Tokyo, and forced the suspension of Shinkansen high-speed rail services in Iwate, NHK said.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the government had mobilized an emergency task force and urged citizens in affected areas to evacuate.
"Possible damage and casualties are now being looked into," Takaichi told reporters in Tokyo.
Japan sits on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," one of the world's most seismically active zones, where multiple tectonic plates collide and generate earthquakes.
Since the 2011 Fukushima disaster, when a 9.0-magnitude quake and tsunami sparked triple reactor meltdowns, Japan has overhauled its response and evacuation systems to improve disaster readiness.
NHK cited the Tokyo Electric Power Company as saying that no issues were reported at the Fukushima Daiichi and Fukushima Daini nuclear power plants.
The Japan Meteorological Agency warned that aftershocks are possible over the next week and could be similar in size to the quake recorded earlier today.
Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 06:55For half a century, the Strait of Hormuz was Iran’s weapon. Today, it is its noose.
The mathematics of energy have flipped, and with them the balance of coercive power in the Persian Gulf.
Iran’s implicit deterrent was geographic, spanning from the tanker wars of the 1980s to the sanctions standoffs of the 2010s. Almost 20% of global seaborne oil, and a similar share of liquefied natural gas, passes through the Strait. The formula was simple: any military confrontation that threatened the Tehran regime risked a closure that would halt trade supplies, spike crude prices, bleed Western consumers, and, above all, inflict pain on the United States, who was the world’s largest oil importer.
The strait served as Tehran’s insurance policy and its most powerful bargaining tool. The threat was predicated on the regime’s belief that it could block everyone except its exports. The Iranian regime revealed its biggest weakness by constantly threatening to damage the global economy through a shutdown of the Strait. In reality, a total shutdown has the most severe impact on Iran.
Almost 90 per cent of Iran’s crude exports, and about 80 per cent of its total exports, depend on the transit through Hormuz. Around 25 per cent of Iranian GDP and 60 per cent of government revenues depend completely on having the Strait open.
Before the war, Iran was exporting roughly 1.7 million barrels per day, receiving around $160 million in daily revenue from exports via the Strait. Thus, Trump’s full closure of the Strait costs Tehran hundreds of millions of dollars a day in losses, not accounting for the additional fiscal and currency consequences in a country already facing an economic disaster with 40–50% inflation. The complete dependence on the Strait of Hormuz also adds to another weakness: 95% of Iranian crude at sea is sold to a single buyer, China. Tehran is not selling into a diversified and open market. Its exports are sold to a monopsony that demands large discounts, between 10 and 11 dollars per barrel.
These weaknesses were visible long before the war. Capital flight reached $15 billion in the first half of 2025 alone; the rial collapsed against the dollar, and the government’s budget, which allocates 51 per cent of oil revenues to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, became even more dependent on a single export route it could not afford to close. When the war began, Iranian crude shipments collapsed by 94%. Then, the United States’ decision to block all Iran export vessels showed that Iran’s chokepoint had become self-choking.
In the past 30 days, 80% of the essential volumes that moved through the Strait have been rerouted or offset by other oil producers, including US record exports.
The world is very different from what the Iran regime thought. In 2025, U.S. crude oil production hit a new annual record of 13.6 million barrels per day, making the United States the world’s largest producer but also the biggest exporter. The United States shipped 5.2 million barrels per day of crude and 7.2 million barrels per day of petroleum products in March 2026, both global records. For the first time, America exported more petroleum than it imported, by a net margin of almost 2.8 million barrels per day, according to the EIA. Total US liquids production now exceeds that of Saudi Arabia and Russia combined. On the natural gas side, U.S. LNG exports reached well over 15 billion cubic feet per day, surpassing Qatar and Australia to make the United States the world’s largest liquefied natural gas exporter, while U.S. dry gas production exceeds the combined output of Russia, Iran, and China. Furthermore, the United States is also the world’s largest producer of nuclear electricity, at roughly 30 per cent of global generation, and a global leader in renewable energy.
When President Trump could say in April 2026 that the United States was “clearing the Strait as a favour to countries around the world, including China, Japan, Korea, and Germany,” the framing was an accurate description of who needs Hormuz open and who does not. Only 4% of the traffic through the Strait goes to the United States, according to SP Global.
According to the International Energy Agency, throughput at Hormuz collapsed from its long-run average of about 20 million barrels per day to 3.8 million since the beginning of the war through the second week of April. Daily ship transits fell roughly 95 per cent. The Tehran regime, in a gesture more theatrical than realistic, attempted to levy a $2 million toll on each vessel crossing the strait, without understanding that the move showed desperation instead of leverage.
The US response has been the most important measure deployed against Iran in two decades of standoffs. Operation Economic Fury established a full naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iranian naval losses in the first 38 days of combat exceeded 150 vessels. The ceasefire framework under negotiation requires Iran to reopen Hormuz, but the US maintains control. Thus, negotiations revolve around Iranian dismantlement, not American concessions.
The lesson is not just that Iran miscalculated but that it massively underestimated its obvious weaknesses. The United States is not a hostage of the Gulf; it is the guarantee of its safe sea lanes. Europe is tied to U.S. LNG while keeping a substantial Russian dependence, which complicates its energy security and makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in supply and price from both sources. Asia’s largest economies, particularly China, are suffering the marginal cost of a Hormuz disruption, which has led to increased energy prices and supply chain uncertainties that further exacerbate their economic challenges. Iran’s economic nightmare has only started.
Three important factors must be considered.
First, the traditional Hormuz risk premium in Brent, which refers to the additional cost added to oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, is structurally smaller than in the 2010s because U.S. supply can absorb shocks that previously had no substitute. The Brent price is lower in real and nominal terms than in the 2008, 2018, or 2022 peaks.
Second, the strength of American energy, including economics, export infrastructure, and LNG capacity, has become a key global geopolitical variable, influencing global energy prices and the strategic decisions of other nations.
Third, Iran’s economy has not only suffered damage; it has also been demolished, and its extremely weak fiscal position indicates that it cannot sustain the threat posture in Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most important chokepoint. However, a chokepoint hurts whoever depends on it most, and Iran relies on it completely. The United States does not.
The geopolitical advantage that Tehran once held has now become its greatest weakness, likely leading to the disappearance of the regime’s effective bargaining power.
Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 06:30Trump renews threats if no deal is reached: "No More Mr. Nice Guy"
Trump says U.S. struck and seized Iranian-flagged cargo ship in Gulf of Oman
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a halt after multiple incidents (Iran renewed threats to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait)
Vance to lead negotiations with Iran, along with Witkoff and Kushner, on Tuesday or Wednesday
"We are still far from the final discussion," said speaker of the Iranian parliament Ghalibaf
With markets still closed for now, President Trump just posted on his Truth Social platform that the US military just struck and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman.
Today, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as an aircraft carrier, tried to get past our Naval Blockade, and it did not go well for them.
The U.S. Navy Guided Missile Destroyer USS SPRUANCE intercepted the TOUSKA in the Gulf of Oman, and gave them fair warning to stop.
The Iranian crew refused to listen, so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom.
Right now, U.S. Marines have custody of the vessel.
The TOUSKA is under U.S. Treasury Sanctions because of their prior history of illegal activity.
We have full custody of the ship, and are seeing what’s on board!
According to CENTCOM, American forces issued multiple warnings and informed the Iranian-flagged vessel it was in violation of the U.S. blockade.
After Touska’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings over a six-hour period, Spruance directed the vessel to evacuate its engine room.
Spruance disabled Touska’s propulsion by firing several rounds from the destroyer’s 5-inch MK 45 Gun into Touska’s engine room.
U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit later boarded the non-compliant vessel, which remains in U.S. custody.
American forces acted in a deliberate, professional, and proportional manner to ensure compliance.
U.S. forces operating in the Arabian Sea enforced naval blockade measures against an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel attempting to sail toward an Iranian port, April 19.
Guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) intercepted M/V Touska as it transited the north Arabian Sea at… https://t.co/iyzOQd93C3 pic.twitter.com/HwU4XS48Oq
Since the blockade’s commencement, U.S. forces have directed 25 commercial vessels to turn around or return to an Iranian port.
Now we wait and see the reaction as futures open and the vocal (and kinetic) action is wound back in.
Record highs in stocks provides just the kind of backdrop for Trump to press his 'escalated to de-escalate' strategy into the end of the ceasefire.
Tanker Traffic Through Strait HaltedBy Sunday morning, the latest Bloomberg ship tracking data showed that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had largely ground to a halt.
There were multiple incidents of tankers U-turning over the last 24 hours.
At the same time, a senior Iranian official renewed threats to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
The Hormuz chokepoint (closed once again after briefly opening on Friday morning) comes as the US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place and US-Iran diplomatic channels appear active..
The odds of shipping traffic returning to normal on the Hormuz by the end of the month are currently around 28% on Polymarket. Those odds just hours ago, early Sunday, stood around 18%.
//--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?President Trump told Fox News that special envoy Steve Witkoff is traveling to Pakistan for talks with Iranian negotiators, suggesting the Trump team and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are still pursuing a negotiated off-ramp.
Separately, Trump wrote on Truth Social that his representatives "will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations."
The meetings in Islamabad will be "Tuesday possibly into Wednesday," Trump told Fox News in a call Sunday morning, the outlet reported.
Yet Iranian state media reported Sunday that Tehran had "rejected" the second round of talks.
Iran's "absence" from the talks, the report said, was a result of "Washington's excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade, which it considers a breach of the ceasefire."
Confirmation of another round of upcoming US-Iran talks comes one day after Iran shuttered the Hormuz, citing the US Naval blockade that remains in place.
Overnight, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, admitted on national television that there had been "progress" with Washington, but that there were many gaps and some fundamental points remained.
"We are still far from the final discussion," said Ghalibaf, one of Tehran's top negotiators.
Ghalibaf continued, "If America does not lift the blockade, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be limited."
Trump has accused Tehran of getting "a little cute" with its flip-flopping on the strait that was reopened on Friday but abruptly closed on Saturday morning.
The ceasefire is set to expire Wednesday.
Trump Renews Threats: "No More Mr. Nice Guy"Trump also renewed threats made earlier this month to "knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran" if no deal is reached, warning that "they'll come down fast, they'll come down easy."
Trump's full Truth Social post from earlier:
Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement! Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn't nice, was it?
My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations. Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it.
They're helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing. In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be "the tough guy!"
We're offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran.
NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! They'll come down fast, they'll come down easy and, if they don't take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT'S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Latest headlines:Strait of Hormuz Crisis
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was at a near standstill early Sunday after Iran reversed its decision to reopen the waterway and fired on vessels attempting to pass (BN)
Several LNG tankers reversed course en route to the Strait of Hormuz after Iran warned ship captains that the vital channel is once again closed to maritime traffic (BN)
Two Indian vessels reported firing and returned to the Persian Gulf (BN)
Iran's foreign ministry says US naval blockade is a 'violation' of ceasefire (AFP)
US-Iran Negotiations
Trump said his special envoy Steve Witkoff is traveling to Pakistan for talks with Iran on Tuesday, with talks potentially lasting into Wednesday (BN)
Trump says US negotiators will be in Pakistan on Monday for talks with Iran, resuming negotiations after the Strait of Hormuz standoff escalated (APW) (APW)
Iran says 'commitment for commitment' policy in US talks (NS8)
Trump's Threats and Statements
Trump renewed threats to 'knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran' if no deal is reached (BN) (AFP)
Trump said Iran has committed a 'serious violation' of the ceasefire but a peace deal is still possible, stating 'It will happen. One way or another. The nice way or the hard way' (BN) (JPT)
Trump tells Fox US has massive ammunition prepared against Iran (BN)
Regional Impact
The standoff threatens to deepen the energy crisis roiling the global economy and undermine expectations of an imminent peace deal (BN)
Analysis suggests America's Iran operations may help China edge out US influence in Southeast Asia, with several NATO allies distancing themselves from Washington (SMP)
The previous day's US-Iran wrap:
Other Polymarket Iran Predictions:
//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?. . .
Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 06:11