Prompt Brent/WTI crude nearby futures increased by 5/7% week-over-week to $105/101 as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained very low and on limited signs of progress on a US-Iran deal.
Meanwhile, as global oil inventories collapse at a record pace yet sliding Chinese demand and strategic releases from Beijing keep crude prices relatively stable, Goldman writes that the US gasoline market has become very tight, with inventories drawing at a rapid average pace of 0.7mb/d since April 1st to 5% below their historical seasonal median this week.
This has been driven by a combination of:
On the pricing side, wholesale gasoline prices in the US are approximately 15% ($21/bbl) higher than in Asia and Europe (Exhibit 1 above), and US retail prices are just $0.5/gal below their all-time high.
Goldman says that while it's not the bank's base case, the probability of US oil export restrictions likely rises with US retail gasoline prices.
Turning to oil, the IEA estimates in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) an April deficit of 5.3mb/d, suggesting that the deficit may be less large than most had estimated last month, driven by:
Slightly lower IEA demand. Since the beginning of the crisis, the IEA has cumulatively (May - Feb OMR) downgraded its estimate of April demand by 3.1mb/d to 100.4mb/d (vs. a slightly smaller downgrade of 2.9mb/d in Goldman's balance).
The IEA reports that SPR releases from IEA countries averaged 2.1mb/d in April (but picked up significantly in the second half of the month). This has been a significantly larger offset for crude than for refined products — of the 90mb of total government inventories released since March 11th, 82mb are crude oil, while only 8mb are refined products.
US production in 2026 Q1 also surprised to the upside, with the modest beats concentrated in oil production by E&Ps (+2.1%) and liquids production by majors (+1.3%).
More in the full Goldman oil tracker note available to pro subs.
Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 12:25Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chairman expires today, with Kevin Warsh now confirmed by the Senate as his successor.
The transition has implications beyond a change in the Fed’s leadership.
Further, Stephen Miran, who was appointed Fed Governor in September 2025 to fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, is seeing his term come to an end.
Most noteworthy during his term, he dissented at all six FOMC meetings he attended, consistently pushing for 50-basis-point rate cuts.
It’s not a stretch to say he was the Fed’s biggest dove.
In the graphic below, we circle Miran’s year-end Fed Funds projection in the latest Fed’s dot plot.
As shown, Miran projected a year-end 2026 Fed Funds rate of 2.625%, nearly a full percentage point below the current median of 3.42%. That dovish voice is now gone.
Warsh’s arrival shifts the balance. Here are a few considerations worth keeping in mind:
The Fed tilted slightly more hawkishly: Warsh may prove more dovish than his reputation suggests, but it is nearly impossible he will match Miran’s appetite for cuts.
The next FOMC meeting on June 17th is unlikely to produce action. Given recent inflation data, we see little appetite for rate cuts at the next FOMC meeting despite new leadership.
Powell isn’t gone. He has pledged to remain a Fed Governor through January 2028, or until ongoing investigations into the Fed’s construction project and legal challenges against Governor Lisa Cook reach what he calls “transparency and finality.”
The bottom line: The Fed just got incrementally more hawkish, and the June meeting will be the first test of what that actually means. Moreover, Kevin Warsh will now be on the speaking circuit, so we can better ascertain his thoughts on inflation, employment, and how he will lead the Fed going forward.
Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 12:05