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Four Signs That Bitcoin Has Recovered To 'Full' Bullish Momentum
Authored by Nancy Lubale via CoinTelegraph.com,
Market analysts said Bitcoin’s (BTC) upside remained intact despite the 2.5% correction from its multi-month high of $82,800 reached on May 6.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin has successfully re-entered expansion territory as the Bull Market Support Band turned to support.
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Bitcoin’s Stablecoin Supply Ratio has recovered from historic lows, indicating fresh liquidity is returning.
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Bitcoin’s spot taker CVD flips positive, suggesting real spot demand is back
Private wealth manager Swissblock stated that Bitcoin is “still at full momentum,” despite the slight correction from recent highs.
Swissblock said that the latest rally saw the Bitcoin price momentum “successfully reignited and pushed back into full expansion territory.”
Bitcoin is now consolidating inside the cost-basis battlefield, with the true market mean and the short-term holder cost basis around $80,000 acting as support and the active realized price at $85,000 as resistance.
Meanwhile, “momentum remains structurally strong,” the wealth manager said, adding:
“As long as momentum stays above the transition area, bulls retain control.”Bitcoin price momentum. Swissblock
Echoing this observation, analyst The Great Mattsby pointed out that Bitcoin’s Bull Market Support Band has now turned into support, while the 21-week exponential moving average has crossed back above the 20-week simple moving average.
“The trend has officially flipped back to bullish.”BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: X/The Great Mattsby
Bitcoin liquidity signals “strong recovery”The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has recovered from its lower historical range below 10, the same zone that marked market bottoms in mid-2021, 2022 and mid-2023.
Each time the SSR recovered from these lows, Bitcoin broke out of range and staged a strong rebound, as shown in the chart below.
Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio: Source: CryptoQuant
The recovering SSR suggests that stablecoin liquidity is returning to exchanges again, potentially setting the stage for another bull run for BTC price.
The Binance Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator tells the same story. The chart below shows that Bitcoin’s 90D Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator has moved back into positive territory, reaching 12-month highs at 2.8.
“This reflects a strong recovery from the negative zone, with stablecoin purchasing demand becoming more active during the current rebound,” CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto said in a Tuesday QuickTake note, adding:
“For context, the oscillator previously reached 2.43 in May 2025 and 4.00 in November 2024 — both during stronger market phases.”Stablecoin supply ratio oscillator. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin’s transaction activity is at 20-month highsThe strength in BTC price is reflected in Bitcoin's network activity, with daily transaction count rising by 116% in May to 831,450 on May 9.
This metric was last at similar levels in September 2024, before Bitcoin later rallied above $100,000 during the broader market surge following the US presidential election.
Bitcoin’s network activity is “more active than when it was at $100K,” analyst CW8900 said in an X post on Saturday, adding:
“The network is already showing signals of a bull market.”Bitcoin daily transaction count. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin’s daily active address count has also climbed, increasing by 7.1% over the last week to 707,719, while total fee volume surged 37% to $279,300 over the same period, according to Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse report.
“Such a significant increase suggests heightened onchain activity, potentially signaling bullish market conditions.”Bitcoin daily active address count. Source: Glassnode
Increasing transaction count, daily active addresses and fees means more users are interacting with the network. It suggests high network activity, often correlating with increased interest and market confidence.
Bitcoin's “real demand” is backBitcoin’s 90-day spot taker cumulative volume delta (CVD), a measure of the difference between buy and sell volume over three months, shows a “significant shift in capital flow structure,” according to CryptoQuant analyst Rei Researcher.
The metric flipped positive (green bars in the chart below) in early May as the price broke above the $78,000 resistance and has remained positive since.
“Taker Buy Dominance in the spot market indicates buying pressure from ‘major players’ (Whales/Institutions) looking to hold $BTC rather than just speculating via derivatives,” the Rei Researcher said in a recent Quicktake note, adding:
“Real demand has prevailed. When bulls are willing to pay higher prices to own $BTC, a sustainable uptrend usually follows.”Bitcoin spot taker CVD. Source: CryptoQuant
If the CVD remains green, it could set the stage for another rally as seen in the past. A similar occurrence in May 2025 accompanied 65% BTC price gains.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s spot demand is also accelerating, with spot CVD rising 47% to $62 million from $42 million a week ago, additional data from Glassnode shows.
“This increase indicates a significant uptick in buying aggression among market participants,” the onchain data provider said, adding:
“This behavior implies heightened conviction, with aggressive traders actively setting higher market prices, potentially signaling continued bullish momentum.”Bitcoin: Spot CVD. Source: Glassnode
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio suggests BTC's market structure is strengthening, which may be an early sign of a new bull market.
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As Hegseth Spars With Congress Over Iran War, Trump Decries Criticism As 'Virtual Treason'
There was a bit of a narrative shift on display in Congress as back-to-back hearings on Capitol Hill with top defense and Trump admin officials played out Tuesday, with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth repeatedly on the defensive as he and the administration face intensified scrutiny over the Iran war.
And the growing frustration vented in Congress is not just being sounded by Democrats. As Washington Post's Tuesday headline aptly described: Hegseth, Caine encounter intense bipartisan frustration with Iran war. It seems President Trump has been made keenly aware of potential growing rebellion among GOP ranks, and biting criticisms over how the conflict and Strait of Hormuz standoff is going, given he decided to level the word "treason" in an afternoon Truth Social Post. It seemed also aimed at a series of apparent recent sensitive or classified info leaks within the administration and Pentagon to the media, related to the conflict...
Trump stated while en route to China: "When the Fake News says that the Iranian enemy is doing well, Militarily, against us, it's virtual TREASON" - and he went on to charge that "they are aiding and abetting the enemy!"
"Only Losers, Ingrates, and Fools are able to make a case against America!" he also wrote.
This moment might remind the American public of another key turning point in US history when past president cast all criticisms of wars of choice in the Middle East: When President George W. Bush was gearing up to launch new forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in the wake of the September 11 attacks, he declared, "Either you are with us or you are with the terrorists."
This week also saw arch-neoconservative Robert Kagan break from Trump's Iran War in the the pages of the generally pro-war Atlantic:
It’s hard to think of a time when the United States suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored.
Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be “open,” as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China and Russia, as Iran’s allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished. Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. That is going to set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes adjust to America’s failure.
Kagan doesn't hold back:
Even if Trump were to carry out his threat to destroy Iran’s “civilization” through more bombing, Iran would still be able to launch many missiles and drones before its regime went down—assuming it did go down. Just a few successful strikes could cripple the region’s oil and gas infrastructure for years if not decades, throwing the world, and the United States, into a prolonged economic crisis. Even if Trump wanted to bomb Iran as part of an exit strategy—looking tough as a way of masking his retreat—he can’t do that without risking this catastrophe.
If this isn’t checkmate, it’s close.
But what might Trump also be responding to in his fresh Truth Social Post? Along with some media leaks, he also may have caught a glimpse of his top Pentagon officials and general in the hot seat all day.
Below are some highlights at a moment of growing bipartisan anger related to Iran operations. Most of the fireworks below involved Democrats' line of questioning. As a reminder, Wednesday will mark day 75 of a conflict that the White House initially said would take a matter of 'days' or weeks at most.
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Pentagon Struggles to Articulate Strategic Vision & End-GameSen. Coons: "What is your plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz?"
Hegseth: "I would just note that the majority of your question was highly disingenuous and loaded with suggestions that I very much don't agree with." pic.twitter.com/Mh9Q8Yu2N8
DURBIN: Could you explain to the American people why with the vast investment we've made in national defense and military, how Iran after they are attacked by us is still capable of stopping the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz?
CAINE: It's a complex situation
DURBIN: As we… pic.twitter.com/tzncZCEYKj
Reed's line of questioning exposes how Pentagon officials have been full of it when talking about how much Trump's Iran war has actually cost pic.twitter.com/Cu2gQR9dQo
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 12, 2026 Trump Was 'Forced' To Lift Sanctions on Russian/Iranian Oil At SeaHEGSETH: We know Russia is a nefarious actor and account for tha--
SHAHEEN: All evidence to the contrary. We're not accounting for that if we're giving Russia the opportunity to earn $4 billion a month by leaving sanctions lifted pic.twitter.com/Z0OoSUpOLn
Massive humiliation for Trump. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirms Donald Trump was forced to halt a major naval operation Project Freedom.
He accidentally exposes absolute weakness, admitting the administration abruptly suspended it merely because Pakistan demanded it. pic.twitter.com/SCv0B69x3e
Pete Hegseth on Iran:
We have a plan to escalate, if necessary. We have a plan to retrograde, if necessary. pic.twitter.com/qOuCjU5bm6
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President Trump before leaving to China issued a message which is definitely not going to sit well with much of the American public. The midterms will get here fast, after all...
Trump on Iran War:
Reporter: What extent are Americans’ financial situation motivating you to make a deal?
Trump: Not even a little bit. I don't think about Americans’ financial situation pic.twitter.com/TJ94pGpqD8