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Between nine-figure contracts, $25 million tournament purses and massive bonuses, LIV Golf burned through an estimated $6 billion since its 2021 inception.

Marshall Manning, the song of legendary quarterback Peyton Manning, showcased his arm strength during a recent training session.

Discovering all of Sherrone Moore's transgressions that led to the shocking overhaul of the Michigan football program cost the university quite the pretty penny.

"This boat belongs to Donald Trump. You need to call him."

Memory Stick Prices Refuse To Come Back To Earth

Apple CEO Tim Cook's warning during Thursday evening's earnings call about the deepening global memory shortage sent us back to review memory stick prices.

Let's review what Cook said…

"We believe memory costs will drive an increasing impact on our business," Cook told analysts, while also warning about "supply constraints." He added, "We'll continue to evaluate this."

It wasn't just Cook warning about memory prices this week. Meta and Microsoft also noted in their earnings results that higher prices contributed to their elevated capital expenditures.

Memory makers Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have all been racing to add new capacity as AI data centers absorb an ever-larger share of memory sticks, which are typically used in PCs and smartphones.

Comments from Cook and other Big Tech firms this week about the dire situation prompted us to check the latest prices amid the memory crunch.

Goldman analyst Kenta Kinuhata provided the most recent cost breakdown of memory prices.

Biggest changes:

• DRAM: 2026 price increase estimate jumped from about 150% to 250% to 280%. Supply tightness now extends into late 2026 and early 2027.

• NAND: 2026 price increase estimate jumped from about 100% to 200% to 250%. Like DRAM, supply is now expected to stay tighter for longer.

Pricing

Amazon price-tracking website CamelCamelCamel shows that pricing for the "G.SKILL Trident Z5 RGB Series DDR5 RAM" was around $869 at the end of April. This is up from $149 in early September.

The big question is when does all this new memory capacity finally hit the market and relieve the supply crunch enough to make building trading desktops affordable again?

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 11:00

There are numerous measures for traffic and L.A. is not the worst in almost all of them, and came in behind three other U.S. cities in one of the biggest studies.

Three Fed Officials Explain Why They Dissented, Blasting Fed's "Easing Bias"

This morning, three Fed officials said they dissented over this week’s policy statement because it was no longer appropriate to signal the Fed’s next move was still likely to be an interest-rate cut.

“I believe the FOMC should offer a policy outlook that signals that the next rate change could be either a cut or a hike, depending on how the economy evolves,” Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said in an essay released on Friday morning. “This could tighten financial conditions somewhat today, pushing back against a high-inflation scenario that could require an even stronger monetary policy response in the future.”

This week’s move marked the fifth dissent for Kashkari, formerly a vocal dove, who is currently one of the longest serving reserve bank president among the 12 regional leaders. His last vote against the majority of the committee was in 2020, when he opposed statement language that he saw as leaning too much toward rate hikes. In 2017, he dissented against each of the three interest rate increases that year.

In his essay, Kashkari laid out two scenarios in which the Middle East conflict could play out. If the Straight of Hormuz were to reopen fairly quickly, underlying inflation would likely be around 3% for a third straight year, pressuring consumers and perhaps the labor market as well. That would likely require the Fed to stay on hold for an extended period before lowering rates gradually, he said. If the conflict were to drag on, though, it would drive up both inflation and unemployment in the US. Given that inflation has been above the Fed’s target for five years, that could unmoor long-term inflation expectations and lead the Fed to raise interest rates in a bid to reverse that, he said. “Rate increases, potentially a series of them, could be warranted, even at the risk of further weakness to the labor market,” Kashkari said of that scenario.

Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack also released a statement in which she said the economy has been resilient so far this year and rising oil prices add to broad-based inflationary pressures.

“Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased in 2026 and makes the future path for monetary policy more uncertain, as well,” she said adding that "inflation pressures continue to be broad based, and rising oil prices present an additional source of inflationary pressure. Uncertainty around the economic outlook is elevated, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth and employment."

As a result she sees "did not believe it was appropriate to include an easing bias around the future path for monetary policy. The current FOMC statement references language around “additional adjustments.” This forward guidance was put into the statement to signal a pause rather than an end to the easing cycle. I see this clear easing bias as no longer appropriate given the outlook."

Hammack, who has been vocal about inflationary risks, dissented in December 2024 to oppose a quarter-point rate reduction.

Completing the trio of dissenters, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, former head of the NY Fed's markets team (also known as the PPT) said in her statement she’s increasingly concerned over how long it will take to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. She also said the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy guidance should reflect that the risks of the next move being a rate cut or a hike are evenly balanced. 

“The conflict in the Middle East raises the prospect of prolonged or repeated supply disruptions that could create further inflationary pressures,” Logan said in a statement released Friday. “It could plausibly be appropriate for the FOMC’s next rate change to be either an increase or a cut.”

It was the first dissent for Logan, who became the Dallas Fed president in 2022. Like Kashkari, she also pointed to the role of the Fed’s forward guidance in financial conditions and the economy, noting that the guidance itself is an important policy tool.

On Wednesday, Hammack, Kashkari and Logan - who have in the past expressed reservations about White House policy - supported the decision to hold interest rates steady, but opposed language in the statement that signaled the Fed was leaning toward resuming interest rate cuts.

The disagreement centered around a phrase in the statement referring to “the extent and timing of additional adjustments” to rates. Officials have kept their benchmark rate unchanged this year at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% after three quarter-point rate reductions at the end of 2025. The language, which was left unchanged Wednesday, suggests the central bank's "bias" is to eventually resume cutting rates.

As Bloomberg notes, since January a growing number of officials have been urging their colleagues to tweak the statement to make it clear the Fed’s next policy move could possibly be a rate hike. Elevated fuel costs spurred higher by the war with Iran have raised worries that price pressures could spread and worsen already elevated inflation. 

Wednesday's FOMC 8-4 vote marked the first time since 1992 that four officials dissented against a Federal Open Market Committee action. Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented in the opposite direction, preferring to lower rates by a quarter point. 

Kashkari, Logan and Hammack have all said since March that the conflict in the Middle East has added uncertainty to the economic outlook.   

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 10:40

"My heart is with anyone who is struggling."

A certain unnamed billionaire arrived at this property in spectacular fashion -- flying by helicopter to Biscayne Bay and taking a raft to the land for a tour. 

Here's when Beth and Rip return to a TV screen near you!

Check out our pick for the best site and app to bet on the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

"The Devil Wears Prada 2" will debut this weekend at No. 1 at the box-office -- but we hear there's real-life drama behind the scenes at the Met Gala concerning Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez hosting the high-end event.

Manufacturing ISM Misses As Prices Surge Most Since April 2022, Employment Slides To Worst Print Of 2026

Amid the fog of war and fading 'hard' data, the final April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI printed 54.5, a small gain from the flash 54.0 print, and higher than the 52.3 February final print, although it came with a warning from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“The surge in manufacturing activity in April is not the cause for cheer that at first glance it suggests. A key driving force behind the upturn is the need for companies to get ahead of further feared price rises and supply shortages, providing a short-term boost that could fade in the coming months as headwinds to the economy continue to build... employment has fallen as firms grow increasingly worried over the need to reduce cost overheads amid an environment of rising raw material prices, while selling prices have jumped higher as producers seek to protect their margins.

There was some good news: “More encouragingly, business expectations for output in the year ahead have improved, partly reflecting hopes that the US will be less affected by the war than previously feared, and less than other economies, as well as reduced concerns over the impact of tariffs given the recent Supreme Court ruling. However, some of these improved expectations of future production gains reflected a reaction to better than anticipated order book inflows in April, which may prove to be a chimera as the stock building boost fades.”

Shortly after, the ISM Manufacturing PMI published its April number which remained unchanged at 52.7, matching the highest since August 2022, and missing estimates of an increase to 53.2

However, a look under the hood reveals that like last month, there was continued deterioration in the core components: Under the hood, Prices Paid continued to rise dramatically while New Orders and Employment dipped again - another indication that stagflation remains the biggest risk for the economy.

• New Orders 54.1, missing expectations of 54.5
• Prices Paid 84.6, higher than expectations of 80.3
• Employment 46.4, missing expectations of48.8

As shown below, the New Orders Index expanded for the fourth straight month after four straight readings in contraction, registering 54.1 percent, up 0.6 percentage point compared to March’s figure of 53.5 percent. The April reading of the Production Index (53.4 percent) is 1.7 percentage points lower than March’s reading of 55.1 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 84.6 percent, a 6.3-percentage point jump from March’s reading of 78.3 percent. In the last three months, the Prices Index has increased 25.6 percentage points to reach its highest level since April 2022 (84.6 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 51.4 percent, down 3 percentage points compared to the 54.4 percent recorded in March. The Employment Index registered 46.4 percent, down 2.3 percentage points from March’s figure of 48.7 percent.

Some more details:

“In April, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at the same pace as the month before. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI®, the New Orders and Supplier Deliveries indexes indicated faster growth compared to the previous month, the Production Index grew at a slower rate, and the Employment and Inventories indexes remained in contraction.

“Two of four demand indicators (the New Orders and Backlog of Orders indexes) remain in expansion, although the Backlog of Orders Index dropped 3 percentage points compared to March. The New Export Orders Index remained in contraction with a 2-percentage point decrease, and the Customers’ Inventories Index remains in ‘too low’ territory, contracting at a slightly faster rate. A ‘too low’ status for the Customers’ Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production.

“Regarding output, the Production Index is in expansion for the sixth month in a row (although it lost ground compared to March), and the Employment Index decreased by 2.3 percentage points and remains in contraction. Among panelists, 60 percent indicated that managing head counts remains the norm at their companies as opposed to hiring, and of those managing head counts, 34 percent are using layoffs and 43 percent using attrition or not backfilling positions.

“Finally, inputs (defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices, and imports) had another month of mixed results. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated increasingly slowing deliveries, the Inventories Index contracted at a slower rate, and the Prices Index vaulted again — up another 6.3 percentage points to 84.6 percent, from 78.3 percent in March, and the highest reading from April 2022, when it was also at 84.6 percent. The Imports Index lost 2.3 percentage points for a reading of 50.3 percent, compared to 52.6 percent in March.

“Looking at the manufacturing economy, 19 percent of the sector’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in April, compared to 16 percent in March, and the percentage of manufacturing GDP in strong contraction (defined as a composite PMI® of 45 percent or lower) decreased to 2 percent, compared to 4 percent in March. The share of sector GDP with a PMI® at or below 45 percent is a good metric to gauge overall manufacturing weakness. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four (Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products) expanded in April,” says Spence.

According to the report, “In April, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at the same pace as the month before. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI, the New Orders and Supplier Deliveries indexes indicated faster growth compared to the previous month, the Production Index grew at a slower rate, and the Employment and Inventories indexes remained in contraction."

Yet for all the rhetoric, what matters is that  prices continued to rise, surging to 84.6, the highest since April 2022 and approaching their 2021 record high, while employment shrank further into contraction, down to 46.4, the lowest print of 2026.

Furthermore, as expected the Iran war remains: “In this second month of the Iran War (at the time of data collection), 31 percent of the comments were positive and 69 percent negative, with a positive to negative sentiment ratio of 1 to 2.2. Among comments, the war was mentioned in 47 percent and tariffs in 18 percent. As was the case last month, some panelists referenced both topics within a single comment or in mixed sentiment."

Obviously, if the war persists and price pressures and supply delays accelerate, demand, employment and production capabilities will inevitably start to be even more adversely affected until the broader economy finally cracks. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 10:22

Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson blew viewers' minds after revealing what happens to our bodies after death in a recent episode of his podcast "Startalk."

Are we having fun yet?! Yes, even if Scott's character isn't.

Sorrentino, who has been sober for 11 years, released a statement in the wake of Ortiz-Magro seemingly nodding off while doing press for the show.

Sorrentino, who has been sober for 11 years, released a statement in the wake of Ortiz-Magro seemingly nodding off while doing press for the show.

Final Warnings

By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank

Some headlines write themselves. Tokyo has already delivered one – and likely acted on it. Tehran may be waiting for its turn. The bond market, meanwhile, could have issued another warning to the Fed. As for the long-held consensus that 2026 would bring smooth disinflation, gentle policy easing, and AI-driven multiple expansion, that narrative has been under strain for some time. Yesterday’s European inflation – and to a lesser extent growth – data did little to support it. Both US and Eurozone Q1 GDP undershot expectations even as inflation pressures persist. To be sure, central banks held their fire, but no one can say they haven’t been warned.

Start with the yen, because that's where yesterday's most audible bang came from. After Finance Minister Katayama and top FX diplomat Mimura took turns at the microphone delivering what Mimura himself called Japan's "final evacuation warning" to markets, USD/JPY collapsed from above 160 to under 156 – the largest one-day move in the dollar against the yen since December 2022.

The MOF, predictably, won't confirm. But when a currency moves three big figures in a few hours with no other catalyst, traders who've sat through previous interventions tend to recognize the fingerprints. While writing this Daily, the USD/JPY pair is coming down sharply again.

Atsushi Mimura

The bigger issue, however, is whether intervention can do more than briefly stabilize markets. Japan faces structural pressures: it is a major energy importer amid elevated oil prices, and its central bank is cautiously pursuing policy normalisation after years of ultra-loose settings. Recent spikes in government bond yields – touching multi-decade highs – highlight the risks. Authorities can resist market forces for a time, but they cannot fundamentally change them.

Speaking of which: oil. Brent traded above $125 yesterday in early European trading on yet more reporting that Washington is preparing for an extended blockade of Iran's ports and may be considering renewed military action, before being abruptly knocked lower in heavy volume – possibly, some sources suggested, by official Japanese selling alongside the yen operation. So have we arrived at the point where finance ministries are actively managing crude on the side?

What is more interesting is that they smashed oil (-$6 in seconds) first https://t.co/PHpElFAZAb pic.twitter.com/Ax00iGlLXl

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 1, 2026

In any case, oil appears to be holding on to its decline despite rising geopolitical tensions. The UAE has urged its citizens in Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq to leave “immediately,” citing deteriorating regional conditions. At the same time, sources suggest the US is completing final pre-strike preparations, including intelligence gathering on Iranian oil infrastructure. In response, Iran is reportedly planning a “dual response”: missile strikes on Gulf energy assets and US-linked bases, alongside a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz using mines and missiles. Senior US military officials have briefed President Trump on updated options for possible action against Iran. In short, multiple warnings have been issued, and the situation remains highly fluid – meaning the landscape could shift markedly over the coming days. Warnings are out.

In the Eurozone, April’s flash HICP rose to 3.0% y/y – the highest since September 2023 – driven largely by a 10.9% surge in energy prices, with inflation accelerating across Germany, France, Spain, and Italy. While the headline print was slightly below our forecast, this mainly reflected easing in core inflation, particularly services, which slowed from 3.2% to 3.0% y/y. This distinction is important. The headline signals renewed pressure, but core dynamics suggest inflation has not yet broadened into a wage‑price spiral that would warrant aggressive monetary tightening beyond limited “warning shots.” We expect Eurozone inflation to average around 3.1% in 2026, easing to 2.5% in 2027. While still above pre-war expectations – by roughly 1.7 percentage points cumulatively – this profile does not justify tightening policy into a slowing growth backdrop.

Indeed, Eurozone GDP data sharpened the inflation–growth trade-off. Q1 growth came in at just 0.1% q/q, below the 0.2%–0.3% consensus. France stagnated, Italy slowed, Germany surprised modestly to the upside at 0.3%, and Spain remained the standout at 0.6%. Importantly, most of the quarter predates the peak of the Iran-related energy shock, meaning the weakness reflects an economy already losing momentum rather than the direct impact of recent geopolitical developments (see our more in-depth take here). This suggests Q2 is likely to be similarly weak – or weaker in underlying terms – and implies that the ECB’s prior growth projections were already too optimistic before the latest shock. Our forecasts see Eurozone growth slowing from 1.5% in 2025 to 0.6% this year, followed by a modest recovery to 0.9% in 2027.

Against this backdrop, the ECB left rates unchanged at 2%, as widely expected. The decision itself was uneventful; the message was not. The Governing Council acknowledged that “upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified,” with President Lagarde describing the outcome as “an informed decision on the basis of yet-insufficient information.” That phrasing suggests the decision was finely balanced, with some policymakers inclined to move – a message that also came through via ‘sources’ shortly after the press conference had ended.

Our ECB watcher Bas van Geffen characterises this as a “June or never” moment – and the uncertainty embedded in that phrase is key. Hawks still have a window to push for tightening, but it is narrowing. Earlier in the month, markets had priced in multiple hikes, driven by inflation concerns, yet that urgency has since faded. Financial conditions have remained orderly: spreads are contained, equities resilient, and no disorderly market reaction has emerged to compel ECB action. In that environment, the burden of proof shifts to those advocating a hike. 

Our base case remains a 25bp increase in June, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%. June offers fresh staff projections and another month of data, making it the natural decision point. However, if the ECB does not act then, the case for tightening weakens materially. By July, energy pass-through should be near its peak, and evidence of second-round effects – if present – should be clearer. Absent such evidence, the argument for higher rates loses traction. A key condition for a June pause, however, would be a meaningful easing in energy prices, implying improvement in Middle East tensions – something not evident at present. The ECB, for its part, cannot be accused of failing to signal these risks.

Across the Channel, the Bank of England struck an “Alert but careful” tone, also holding rates steady. Governor Bailey described the stance as an “active hold,” balancing persistent inflation risks against growing concerns over employment and activity. While the BoE reiterated that it stands “ready to act as necessary,” both the minutes and Bailey’s remarks suggested reluctance to move prematurely. An overload of scenarios and caveats provided limited forward guidance. That said, we expect more Monetary Policy Committee members to lean toward tightening in June. Ultimately, how far that shift goes will depend heavily on developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the extent to which higher energy costs feed through into broader inflation.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 10:10

A source familiar with the situation told Page Six that it's "unclear" where things will end up romantically.

A source familiar with the situation told Page Six that it's "unclear" where things will end up romantically.