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Conference Board Survey Signals Ugly Job Market, Weakest 'Present Situation' In Over 5 Years
The Conference Board's measure of Americans' Consumer Confidence fell more than expected in July, from an upwardly revised 92.2 to 90.8 (well below the 92.4 expectation)...
The Present Situation index fell to 114.9 (below 117.5 exp) - its weakest since Feb 2021 while Expectations were unchanged at 74.7 (very slightly better than the 74.4 exp).
“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.
“The Present Situation Index was less positive for a third consecutive month while the Expectations Index remained in negative territory. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, perceptions of the current labor market both softened.
Looking ahead, consumers anticipate little improvement in business conditions over the next six months, but expectations for the labor market were slightly less negative. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.”
On a six-month moving average basis, by age, confidence for consumers under 35 remained the highest, while confidence among those aged 35-54 showed the greatest improvement.
By income, confidence was mixed, but generally higher-income groups were more optimistic.
By generation, confidence for Gen Z and Millennials remained the highest, while confidence fell the most for the Silent Generation on a six-month moving average basis.
By political affiliation, confidence among Independents and Democrats softened while Republicans were somewhat more positive.
And while jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since 1969 last week, perceptions of current employment conditions declined, with the labor market differential - the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get” - dipping by 0.7 ppts to +3.1%. This downshift was driven by fewer consumers reporting that jobs are “plentiful”, while the those saying jobs are “hard to get” dipped slightly over the month.
Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations were less elevated in July. Most consumers—61.3%, unchanged from June—still expected higher interest rates over the next 12 months. Notwithstanding recent volatility in the equity markets, consumers still expected higher stock prices a year from now.
Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to be mostly pessimistic in July.
References to prices and oil and gas eased in frequency but remain elevated. Comments about food and grocery prices increased.
Mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict eased during the sample period. However, as the fighting has reaccelerated quite recently there could be an increase in these mentions in the revised data for July.
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J&J's Proposed $5.5 Billion Talc Settlement May "Lift Remaining Overhang" On Shares, Says Guggenheim
Johnson & Johnson announced late Monday that it had reached an agreement to commit $5.5 billion to resolve most lawsuits alleging its talc products caused ovarian cancer. The settlement could end 15 years of litigation and "lift the remaining overhang" on J&J shares, according to one institutional trading desk.
The "comprehensive resolution," as described by J&J, requires participation from law firms representing at least 95% of pending state and federal claims. The company faces roughly 76,000 lawsuits, though some Wall Street analysts expect that number could soon top 90,000.
J&J maintains that its talc products are safe and never contained asbestos. It stopped selling talc-based baby powder in the US in 2020 and globally in 2023 after repeated attempts to resolve the claims through bankruptcy court failed.
"Studies show talc is safe, does not contain asbestos, and does not cause cancer," J&J wrote in the press release.
"After decades of litigation and full vetting of the science in an extensive hearing, plaintiffs effectively conceded their inability to prove specific causation by withdrawing their experts on the topic in two bellwether cases," said Erik Haas, Worldwide Vice President of Litigation, Johnson & Johnson.
Haas continued, "In a watershed moment, the Court thereafter ordered plaintiffs to show why the remaining claims should not be dismissed, confirming what we have maintained for years: that these claims lack scientific merit and were sustained only by unreliable expert opinions that could not survive rigorous judicial review."
Guggenheim Securities senior biopharmaceutical equity research analyst Vamil Divan wrote in a note that a "Potential Talc Settlement Could Lift Remaining Overhang on JNJ Shares," adding, "It's Not Over' Til It's Over, but This Time It May Actually Be Over."
Divan added more color:
JNJ has announced an update on their ongoing talc litigation, with the company reaching a proposed settlement that would lead to them paying a minimum of $5.5Bn to resolve the outstanding claims related to the product potentially causing ovarian cancer.
We have lost count on the number of times the company has seemingly come close to resolving this issue but not being successful, but this time appears potentially different with law firms representing the MDL and state leadership supporting the resolution and apparently poised to recommend it to their clients, per the company.
JNJ also clarified to us that the minimum $5.5Bn commitment would be paid out on a claim-by-claim basis based on a grid that assigns a value to each claim based on numerous criteria, starting with $3Bn next year.
We would note that our investor discussions on talc have declined markedly over the past year as the company has delivered significant positive progress both commercially and with their pipeline, particularly in Innovative Medicine.
As a result, it is not clear to us how much of an overhang this talc litigation actually is on JNJ shares anymore. However, we believe expectations were still in the ~$10Bn range for what JNJ may need to pay to settle all of the outstanding ovarian cancer claims, so if this can be resolved for ~$5.5Bn then we think that should be received positively by the Street.
Analysts from Citi offered their take on the J&J development:
Another Proposed Resolution for Ovarian Talc, Hopefully the Last
Management has proposed another resolution of its ovarian talc litigation, potentially tying off 15 years of litigation. The resolution follows a July 22 court ordering that plaintiffs exhibit why the remaining talc claims should not be dismissed for inability to prove specific causation – “The order followed plaintiffs’ withdrawal of their specific causation experts in two bellwether cases, after a hearing that demonstrated their opinions were not based upon reliable scientific methodologies.” The resolution requires participation of at least 95% of the remaining claimants, with total payments of $5.5B including the first payment of no more than $3B in 2027, and no additional payments before 2028. While management has been at this threshold previously, with the inability of the plaintiffs to provide specific causation in these pivotal cases, it appears that this proposed resolution will be the final, successful one. We rate JNJ Buy.
J&J shares rose about 2% in premarket trading. The stock had gained nearly 29% for the year through Monday's close.
Wall Street remains firmly bullish. Among analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 71.4% rate J&J a "Buy," while the remaining 28.6% recommend "Hold." None carries a "Sell" rating.
The average 12-month price target stands at $276.24.
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Max'd Out Again: FAA Proposes Inspections For Hundreds Of Boeing 737 Planes Over Seat Installations
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is proposing an inspection of hundreds of seats installed in Boeing 737 Max aircraft due to safety concerns.
The FAA proposed adopting a new airworthiness directive for three 737 Max models—737-8, 737-9, and 737-8200, the agency said in a notice published in the Federal Register on July 27.
An airworthiness directive is a legally enforceable regulation issued by the FAA to correct what it deems to be an unsafe condition in a product. The proposed directive “would require a detailed inspection of the seat track fittings of each left and right side track-mounted passenger seat assembly for correct installation and applicable on-condition actions,” the FAA said in a notice.
According to the agency, it has received a report suggesting that certain track-mounted passenger seats were not properly installed in the models’ seat tracks. Incorrect installations can result in seats disengaging from seat tracks during turbulence, increased load, or emergency landing.
If not addressed, the situation could result in passengers and crew members getting injured during an emergency situation and the aisle becoming blocked, which can slow down an evacuation process, the FAA warned.
The FAA decided to issue the notice after determining that the unsafe conditions are “likely to exist or develop on other products of the same type design,” the agency said.
The issue is estimated to affect 453 airplanes. With an estimated 69 track-mounted passenger seat assemblies per airplane, aircraft operators may need to shell out more than $2.65 million to inspect all the affected seats, according to the FAA.
A Boeing spokesperson said the planemaker issued guidance to operators about the issue in December 2025.
“We support the FAA making that guidance mandatory,” the spokesperson said.
The FAA recently determined that Boeing can resume issuing airworthiness certifications for these models. An airworthiness certificate is issued at the last stage of an aircraft’s production process and confirms that the plane is safe to operate.
The FAA prohibited Boeing from issuing these certificates for newly built 737 planes in 2019 following two accidents.
In the first incident, a Lion Air Flight 610 crashed over Indonesia in October 2018. A few months later, in March 2019, Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crashed in Ethiopia. Combined, the accidents resulted in the deaths of 346 passengers and crew members.
In 2022, the FAA also stopped Boeing from issuing airworthiness certificates for 787 planes due to production quality issues.
In September 2025, the FAA allowed Boeing to start issuing these certificates for some of the 787 and 737 Max planes. The agency and Boeing issued certificates on alternating weeks.
The FAA said earlier this month that over the past eight months, it has observed that the airworthiness certificates issued by the agency and Boeing had “comparable production quality findings.”
The agency decided that Boeing can now handle this responsibility. The FAA will continue inspecting, monitoring, and auditing Boeing’s production system. The oversight will involve “closely observing and assessing” the company’s safety culture and Safety Management System, the agency said.
“The decision follows months of thorough data and safety review demonstrating consistent production quality and reflects the FAA’s confidence in Boeing’s ability to issue airworthiness certificates under FAA oversight,” the FAA said in a July 17 statement.
737 Deliveries, OrdersBoeing generated better-than-expected cash flow in the second quarter on continued strong demand for its aircraft, extending the US manufacturer’s turnaround efforts after years of crises.
The company reported free cash flow of $631 million thanks to higher payments for new aircraft, solidly beating analyst estimates of a $331 million outflow.
Revenue rose 8% to $24.6 billion, and Boeing said it still aims to generate $1 billion to $3 billion in free cash this year.
The planemaker is now building 47 of its 737 Max aircraft each month in the Seattle area, with plans to increase that rate eventually to 63.
Ramping up production is key to repairing its balance sheet and cashing in on an order book worth $715 billion that gained a boost from a slate of commitments at last week’s Farnborough International Airshow.
Boeing announced over 170 firm and preliminary orders at the show and the company’s management said demand remained strong for its aircraft.
“While we’re making progress on our development programs, you’re never done until you’re done,” Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg told employees in a memo alongside the earnings.
Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 09:22