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US-Iran Tit-For-Tat Spirals Towards Broader Conflict

Zero Rss
1 month ago
US-Iran Tit-For-Tat Spirals Towards Broader Conflict

The escalation pathway in the renewed tit-for-tat conflict between the US and Iran is becoming increasingly alarming and has been underway for eight days.

US forces reportedly struck Qeshm Island and the southern Iranian cities of Shadegan, Sirik and Hajiabad, while Tehran retaliated with drone and missile attacks targeting US bases and critical infrastructure across Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, according to Bloomberg, citing Iranian state media.

The latest escalation could open the door for Israel to rejoin the fight. Itamar Ben Gvir, an Israeli security cabinet minister, told listeners on Israeli radio that he hoped President Trump would strike Iran hard.

Iran's latest attacks moved beyond military targets to now civilian infrastructure, which has been troubling.

Kuwaiti Ministry of Electricity warned earlier today that its power and desalination plants have come under attack for the second straight day by Iranian projectiles.

BREAKING: Kuwait says power and water desalination plant attacked for second time in two days

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/jKP76o4RPX pic.twitter.com/5IoegG3wJv

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) July 19, 2026

US Central Command described the latest US strikes as seeking to reduce Tehran's offensive capabilities on the Strait of Hormuz that threaten commercial shipping and "swiftly punish" Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces behind the Jordan attack that killed two US soldiers and left another missing in action.

U.S. forces pound Iran for the eighth straight night as CENTCOM releases new footage following Iranian missile and drone attacks on a U.S. base in Jordan that killed two U.S. service members. A third remains missing.

CENTCOM says forces "successfully hit Iranian military coastal… pic.twitter.com/0jc8TZBzdo

— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 19, 2026

By now, the interim ceasefire deal signed by the US and Iran is in flames, as US forces have renewed their blockade of Iranian ports and the Trump team has tightened sanctions on Tehran's oil exports

An overnight report from AFP News stated:

Iran says nuclear plant being built attacked.

Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said the United States attacked an under-construction nuclear power plant in Darkhovin, in the country's southwest.

Previous days US-Iran Wrap:

Polymarket: Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

US-Iran Military Tit-For-Tat Escalation

  • Two US service members were killed and another went missing in action during Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks in Jordan on Friday; four others were evacuated to Jordanian hospitals.
  • The US launched fresh strikes on Iran overnight Saturday, hitting Qeshm Island in the Persian Gulf and southern cities including Shadegan, Sirik and Hajiabad, according to Iranian media.
  • Iran suspended its commitments under the interim deal with the US as both sides continued exchanging strikes on infrastructure and military targets.
  • Bahrain said it intercepted several Iranian aerial attacks on Sunday.
  • Jordan evacuated Aqaba's airport and seaport due to a specific and credible threat, with the US embassy advising Americans to avoid both locations.

Hormuz Chokepoint Tensions

  • Iran's Revolutionary Guards said four vessels attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz via an unauthorized route; two were stopped after accidents and two turned back.
  • Iran accused the ships of attempting to disrupt transit through the strait with "support from American terrorists" and said they had turned off their navigation systems.
  • Iran rushed out approximately $6 billion of oil during a brief truce with the US in mid-June to mid-July, with around 20 Iranian tankers arriving off Malaysia's east coast, with China as the likely ultimate destination, according to analysts, per the Wall Street Journal.

Regional Impact & Kuwait Strikes Crisis

  • Kuwait suffered some of its worst Iranian retaliatory attacks, with strikes on a vital oil facility causing significant damage and injuries, and a second power plant hit in as many days.
  • Kuwait airport suspended flights and Kuwait Airways rescheduled the majority of its flights following the attacks.
  • Iraq is using a large fleet of trucks to carry fuel through Syria to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, rapidly making Syria the Middle East's top export hub, accounting for more than a quarter of regional volumes.

Oil Market Woes  

  • Renewed fighting is raising the risk of an oil price spike as global supply buffers have been worn thin, with emergency stockpile releases and reduced Chinese imports having previously helped avert a crisis when the Strait of Hormuz first closed in March.
  • Concerns over re-escalation of the war pushed oil prices sharply higher following Iran's heavy attacks on Kuwait.

Ahead of US futures opening later today, IG's Weekend Oil and US Crude are up about 2%.

The IG oil market is a weekend CFD market that lets traders speculate on where WTI crude will reopen when regular futures trading resumes Sunday evening.

On Friday, Brent crude futures jumped 4% to nearly $88 a barrel, putting the crude oil on track for its biggest weekly gain since April.

A must-read this weekend as Hormuz normalization dramatically slows:

Bloomberg data show transits in the Strait of Hormuz come to a standstill …

Continued read:

Professional subscribers can tap our new Marketdesk.ai portal to read the latest on energy and Hormuz.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 08:45
Tyler Durden

French Gambling Regulator Orders ISPs To Block Polymarket

Zero Rss
1 month ago
French Gambling Regulator Orders ISPs To Block Polymarket

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

France’s Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ), or the National Gambling Authority, has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket.

Prediction websites are considered illegal gambling, the ANJ said in a Friday press release.

The regulator said that Polymarket’s operations are not authorized in France and that advertising unauthorized gambling sites constitutes a criminal offense with fines of up to 100,000 euros ($114,000).

Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of future events, from elections and sporting events to economic data and geopolitical developments. Polymarket has surged in popularity over the past two years, with billions of dollars in trading volume, while drawing scrutiny from regulators over whether its event contracts constitute illegal gambling or unlicensed financial products.

Countries that blocked access to Polymarket include Singapore, Poland, Portugal, Hungary, Ukraine, Brazil and Indonesia. At press time, Polymarket said it was geoblocked in 36 regions.

France’s gambling regulator first shared plans to block the platform in November 2024 for failing to comply with national gambling laws.

French gambling authority cites outcome manipulation concerns

France’s gambling authority said Polymarket boasts “addictive features” that are similar to regulated gambling offerings, but “amplified by the absence of the protective mechanisms found in the legal gambling market.”

It also cited potential outcome manipulation tied to some event contracts on Polymarket, adding:

“Some of the bets offered on this platform appeared to be rigged: for example, bets on the weather revealed that weather sensors may have been hacked.”

The cybercrime unit of the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Office launched an investigation into this matter in May 2026 and found a lack of identity verification, such as Know Your Customer checks.

Prediction markets have also drawn scrutiny from US regulators. On June 17, Kentucky sued five prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed sports betting platforms. At least 17 other states have followed suit.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued eight states, arguing they had interfered with the federal regulator’s exclusive authority over federally regulated event contracts. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 08:10
Tyler Durden

Germany To Join French Nuclear Exercise, Deepening 'Counter-Russia' Deterrence

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Germany To Join French Nuclear Exercise, Deepening 'Counter-Russia' Deterrence

In the latest development related to what some analysts have called the 'new Cold War' and nuclear saber-rattling between Russia and the West, Germany and France are planning a major nuclear exercise later this year.

The atomic drills were announced Friday, after a joint top-level meeting of the French and German governments near Cologne. "Alongside this work on a shared doctrine, German conventional forces will this year take part in a nuclear exercise of the French military," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz unveiled. 

picture alliance/dpa

He detailed while at a press event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron that a "strategic steering group" established by the leading European allies would continue looking at deterrence in the future, with an eye on Russia.

"This is complementary to our nuclear participation and deterrence within NATO, which we still hold to," he added. He also previewed "a maneuver in the autumn held on the initiative of France" - while speaking of the Ukraine war.

"We will clarify together what form exactly this participation will take," he said.

France is newly positioning itself at the forefront of nuclear deterrence for Europe, a role that the United States has long assumed, and currently still does.

According to some of Macron's statements at the same event: "Patriotism, yes; nationalism, never. At a time when Europe is rearming, to think that each of us separately accumulating capabilities is the way history is going is absurd." More details have been offered in the following:

Mr Macron and Mr Merz began the defence council at Nörvenich air base beside a French Rafale and a German Eurofighter – a symbolic backdrop after the aircraft designed to replace them was scrapped.

Nuclear deterrence offers one field where the strained partnership can still move forward.

German troops would play a conventional supporting role and would not control French weapons. Berlin will also help develop radar and space-based systems for detecting ballistic and hypersonic missiles.

Currently the United States and the UK, which both maintain nuclear arsenals, form the core of NATO's nuclear deterrence strategy. While France also possesses nuclear weapons, it does not yet participate on a leadership level in NATO's nuclear planning group. The US military also contributes F-35, refueling aircraft, and other support planes. 

Germany's Chancellor Merz:

For the first time, I have accepted the offer made by the French President to jointly think about nuclear deterrence.

Historically speaking, General Charles de Gaulle had already offered the Federal Republic of Germany a French nuclear umbrella many… pic.twitter.com/lIug2JjqVB

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 17, 2026

Russia has not infrequently held its own strategic drills over the course of the last several years of war in Ukraine. It has also become the 'new normal' for Russia and Europe to hold rival conventional war games, amid threats, warnings and ongoing miliary flexing.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 07:35
Tyler Durden

Nearly Half Of Poles Now Want To Stop Arming Ukraine

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Nearly Half Of Poles Now Want To Stop Arming Ukraine

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The reason is Poles’ radically shifting views towards Ukraine since the start of their spiraling dispute sparked by Zelensky’s state-level glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits.

Leading Polish conservative newspaper Rzeczpospolita published the results of a survey that it commissioned showing that 45.2% of Poles now want to stop arming Ukraine. The majority are from the opposition, which includes conservative and libertarian-nationalist (populist in American political parlance) groups who a separate survey recently showed could form a coalition government after fall 2027’s next Sejm elections, and is almost three times larger than the 18.3% from December 2022.

Krzysztof Bosak, one of the populist Confederation’s co-leaders, is quoted as reaffirming his party’s consistent policy of supporting conditional aid to Ukraine that tangibly advances Polish interests. Its rapid growth in popularity per the second-mentioned survey above is likely due to the public realizing that Confederation was right all along about Ukraine amidst their country’s spiraling dispute with it that was sparked by Zelensky’s state-level glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits.

This palpable sentiment is arguably responsible for why the conservative “Law & Justice” (PiS) opposition’s prime ministerial candidate boldly broke with this party’s leadership earlier in the week by calling on the EU to stop funding Ukrainian arms till it “enters the path of pro-human values.” PiS is also separately embroiled in a power struggle between co-founder Jarosław Kaczyński and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki over the latter’s refusal to shutter his sub-group within the party.

The combination of these factors could lead to more disgruntled PiS supporters flocking towards Confederation, thus potentially turning the party in the senior partner in any coalition that could be formed after fall 2027’s next Sejm elections, which could lead to serious changes in Polish foreign policy. The second survey that was hyperlinked to in the introduction shows that Confederation and the Confederation of the Polish Crown that earlier split from it have more support combined than PiS.

It’s therefore within the realm of political reality that the populists maintain their role as the country’s most powerful opposition force, especially if support for PiS continues declining while support for Confederation continues growing, with Poles’ radically shifting views towards Ukraine being the reason. Rzeczpospolita’s report cites the Defense Ministry’s recently declassified statistics showing that the former PiS government gave Ukraine around €3.4 billion worth of military equipment from 2022-2023.

The National Security Bureau disclosed in early 2025 that Poland’s aid to Ukraine totaled 4.91% of its GDP by then (most going to refugees and the above statistics showing that the liberal coalition only sent around €350 million by mid-2026) and constituted hundreds of pieces of equipment. Although PiS has since hardened its approach towards Ukraine, just like its opponents did under public pressure, it could have preemptively averted Ukraine’s descent into an anti-Polish state had it attached strings to its aid.

For example, aid could have been sent only if Ukraine first allowed the full exhumation and proper reburial of the Volhynia Genocide’s victims, officially recognized and apologized for this war crime, and banned Banderism. That didn’t happen and now “Poland Finally Realizes The Geostrategic Challenge Posed By Ukraine”, thus further contextualizing why nearly half of Poles no longer want to arm what’s at this point their top regional rival, which also poses a latent security threat if it’s not soon denazified.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 07:00
Tyler Durden

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