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Tanker Data Contradicts US Claim That Middle East Oil Flows Have Normalized
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com
Oil flows from the Middle East have normalized, with Sunday traffic alone above pre-conflict averages, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said on Tuesday in a claim that appears not to be backed by ship-tracking data.
On Tuesday, Secretary Wright posted on X that “Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day.”
Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day.
When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly…
He went on to add that “When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day.”
According to the top US energy official, “On Sunday alone, over 20 million barrels left the Arabian gulf region, which is above the pre-conflict average.”
However, analysts and tanker traffic monitoring services cannot fathom how the U.S. Administration has arrived at these numbers, considering that traffic at the Strait of Hormuz is severely constrained, even according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
“We have increased our estimates of Middle East shut-in crude oil production in the coming months compared with our July forecast due to continued severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits, which we assume persist through August,” the EIA said on Tuesday in its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
“It is not possible to reconcile the disparity between what we see and what he is quoting,” Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, told CNN, commenting on Wright’s claim.
Kpler data showed earlier this week that vessel traffic at the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline as last week’s hopes of negotiations of a U.S.-Iran deal began to fade, yet again.
On Monday, only six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in either direction, down from 11 ships in the latest 10-day average, according to shipping data from Kpler cited by Reuters on Tuesday. The number down to just 1 on Wednesday.
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Did President Zelensky and the Ukrainian armed forces not listen to US Vice President JD Vance's warnings and request after all?
On Wednesday a "massive" Ukrainian drone and missile strike was unleashed on Russia's port city of Novorossiysk, which badly damaged grain export terminals at what also constitutes the the last major Russian naval base on the Black Sea.
via RetuersThree were killed, including an eight-year-old child, and also 24 people were injured in the Wednesday nighttime attack.
Zelensky acknowledged the rocket and underwater drone attack in what he hailed as a "unique operation" to strike the Russian naval base at Novorossiysk.
It seems Zelensky is distinguishing this instance as a hit on a purely 'military target' given he did not mention the grain export terminal aspect to the destruction.
"The occupying fleet and all the infrastructure that supports it will not be safe as long as Russian aggression continues," Zelensky said.
Many Russian assets previously docked at the longtime Russian fleet's home base of Sevastopol were forced to vacate during earlier phases of the war, given the frequent prior targeting of the historic Crimean naval hub. Some ships have even been relocated as far away as the Caspian Sea in order to protect them.
The attack could seriously impact global food supplies, particularly in the African continent.
Reuters has said shutdowns resulted: "Two of Russia's biggest grain terminals at the southern port of Novorossiysk have suspended operations as a result of overnight Ukrainian drone strikes, four industry sources told Reuters on Wednesday."
"Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter and most of those exports are shipped via its Black Sea ports like Novorossiysk. Russia's main grain lobby group warned last month that Ukrainian drone attacks could shut down grain exports via the Black Sea in the near future, pushing up prices and causing hunger in Africa and the Middle East," the report added.
Novorossiysk is also home to vital oil export infrastructure. Kiev has essentially declared open season on Russian oil exports, arguing that proceeds fuel Russia's military machine.
A state of emergency has been declared in Novorossiysk after a Ukrainian drone attack
Due to the rupture of two water mains, the city’s water supply system has been damaged, and water delivery to residents has been restricted.
The Novorossiysk port area is covered in thick… pic.twitter.com/nWpeIfcf5Q
We reported earlier that at the urging of Vice President Vance, Ukraine indicated that it has suspended attacks on oil tankers using Novorossiysk. The request was made in late July, but first reported today by the Financial Times, citing Ukrainian officials.
Vance's plea sprang from the Trump administration's worries that Ukraine's attacks were creating dangerous instability in global fuel markets. There were also concerns that strikes on vessels transporting Kazakhstan crude oil to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal at Novorossiysk were detrimental to American companies.
So it will be interesting to see if in the wake of this latest Wednesday attack, Washington ramps up the pressure on its Ukrainian ally - or whether such attacks will continue and be met with US silence.
Tyler Durden Wed, 08/12/2026 - 15:20