In a new interview on the world's largest podcast, Vice President JD Vance warned that "elements" of the Israeli government want to keep the Iran war going "indefinitely," and were pursuing an aggressive campaign to manipulate US public opinion -- going so far as to vilify Vance for his role in pursuing a diplomatic solution. In his nearly three-hour interview on the Joe Rogan Experience, Vance also tried to gently distance himself from Trump's decision to join Israel in launching a war on Iran and said the White House had botched its communications regarding the Epstein files.
"There are some people within [Israel's] system, we know beyond a shadow of a doubt, who are manipulating and trying to change American public opinion to keep the war going on indefinitely. Again, not towards any objective, but just indefinitely," Vance said, noting that the attacks have not only been directed against US policy, but against him personally. He directed Rogan and his audience to read a recent Time article describing the big-budget mechanism Israel has sponsored to try to shore up Republican support for the war and for Israel.
"It’s like worth reading because it lists a bunch of people who have quite literally been paid by a former Trump campaign person who was himself paid by certain elements within the Israeli government. And those people are attacking me viciously for quite literally trying to accomplish the negotiation objective that the president set for the country."
Vance was referring to former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale, who now runs a communications firm called Clock Tower X. He is also Chief Strategy Officer of Salem Media Group, a conservative multimedia conglomerate. Last summer, Israel started paying Parscale's firm $1.5 million a month to create 100 pieces of digital content every month to be shared across multiple social media platforms. Controversially, Parscale also promised the “integration of narrative messaging into Salem Media Network properties and aligned distribution channels.”
Quite the listen pic.twitter.com/U9TpsTa1Yt
— Curt Mills (@CurtMills) July 15, 2026As for how to end a war that's even less popular than the Vietnam War at its worst polling, Vance defended diplomacy and ridiculed hawkish critics whose grand plan is to only to "bomb them to oblivion." While Trump has been threatening to go on a rampage against Iran's bridges and energy infrastructure if the country doesn't bend to his wishes, Vance echoed the wisdom of many military and geopolitical observers who lampoon the idea that the US military can conquer any country -- much less one that's as large as Western Europe -- using only air power:
“You can bomb them. You can take away their radar. You can take away some of their drones and some of their missiles, but it’s just too easy to fire at ships in the straits. So, you’ve got to actually be willing to talk and to try to figure out the problem.”
With each passing week and month, the unpopularity of the war on Iran looms larger and larger where Vance's 2028 presidential ambitions are concerned. Vance has been using interviews to delicately distance himself from the decision to attack, and he did so again with Rogan. When the podcaster asked Vance about the extent to which he agreed with Trump's decision to launch a war on Iran, Vance deftly used Trump's own characterizations to distance himself from the decision:
"Well, the president said publicly that 'JD was less enthusiastic about it.' I think that was the exact phrase that he used. I mean my attitude towards this, man, as you know, is the vice president— I’m not a public commentator. My job is to give the best advice I can to the president of the United States. I think he’s said a little bit about what that advice was.
In April, a lengthy New York Times report on the decision to start the war portrayed Vance as a skeptic who warned that a war could unleash regional chaos and involve a high number of casualties -- including damage to Trump's coalition, a large segment of which was attracted by Trump's repeated promises not to start new wars. Describing the fateful meeting on Feb 26 that preceded the war's launch two days later, the Times paraphrased Vance as saying, "You know I think this is a bad idea, but if you want to do it, I’ll support you."
You can see Vance trying the thread the MAGA needle when it comes to Iran in this Rogan interview. He hints heavily that he's against the war, but he supports Trump publicly. pic.twitter.com/usuFwZPTGC
— Elijah Cone (@ElijahCone) July 15, 2026Now, nearly five months later, 14 American service members are dead, more than 400 wounded, more than $100 billion has been squandered, the US arsenal significantly depleted, the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed, fuel prices have soared, a global economic catastrophe lurks, and the Iranian people have rallied around their government. Given the war has turned into such a fiasco, it's not clear how much credit Vance will get for having been anything less than a zealous opponent willing to publicly challenge the war from the start.
Regarding the Epstein files, Vance disputed the notion that the Trump administration sought to hide anything from the American people, instead attributing the controversy to poor public communications about the files. “We absolutely screwed up the comms of the Epstein files,” Vance said. “We just did. But do I think the reason we screwed up the comms is because we were trying to hide something? No.” He faulted then-US Attorney General Pam Bondi for having "overstated what we had and what we didn’t have,” as she was caught up in "the political moment."
JD Vance gets annoyed as Joe Rogan questions why MAGA influencers were given Epstein file binders pic.twitter.com/cbjjMMFlmy
— grizzy (@Furbeti) July 15, 2026Though he stopped short of saying Epstein was working for Israel, Vance emphasized Epstein's links to both US and Israeli intelligence agencies. "He clearly had connections to the upper— the highest levels of American intelligence. He clearly had connections to the highest levels of Israeli intelligence," Vance said, later adding, "I’ve asked whether there were documents connecting Jeffrey Epstein directly to our intelligence agencies or anybody else’s, and the answer is no. But if that stuff existed, it wouldn’t exist in 2026."
Here's the full interview:
Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 09:45By Michael Every of Rabobank
Geopolitics is front and center, even in Argentina–England at the World Cup, where the contested Falklands/Malvinas, which could have oil reserves, saw jingoist 1980’s language. Yet it’s Hormuz, where 1980’s-style tanker wars are underway, that’s the penalty spot.
The US is striking Iran again night and day, as Tehran warns of an “existential war”. Reports have Trump leaning towards expanding US military operations; others say what he’s been hitting widen his options for escalation; and Trump has stated Iran “will be defeated soon.” However, the Financial Times today leads with Trump’s ex-defence chief saying the US will not win the war from the air, a sentiment echoed in the Wall Street Journal – and boots on the ground are highly unlikely.
Iran is attacking the Hormuz oil lifeline of ship-to-ship shuttle runs, with some vessels now reportedly refusing US-military guided transits. The US just hit a tanker heading for Kharg Island under the renewed Iran blockade, as some wonder again if the US could try to take control of Iran’s southern islands – which would certainly take boots on the ground.
The IRGC has threatened all global energy workarounds to Hormuz: that includes the Red Sea, where the Houthis may be preparing to attack; it might also involve Azerbaijan’s oil trade with Israel, meaning either striking Iran’s well-armed northern neighbour or the Eastern Mediterranean route its oil arrives via. Markets would move markedly if these developments were to occur.
Israel-Lebanon talks are getting some results, with agreement for Israel to pull back from two pilot zones to allow the Lebanese army to prove it can keep the territory free from Hezbollah – the IDF notably just killed three of the latter, and Trump is still talking about Syria fighting Hezbollah instead. PM Netanyahu will meet Trump in the US on Monday, as many fault lines are seen between the two. However, the flurry of radical domestic legislation the Israeli government just launched ahead of an October 27 election Knesset dissolution may suggest the foreign policy arena is not where they will look to flex for would-be voters.
Elsewhere, US General Caine is pleading with defense contractors to build weapons faster, as munitions constraints linger: the US Air Force plans to buy 28,000 low-cost cruise missiles ahead, showing procurement pivots are happening. The Secretary of War is also going to give US troops testosterone shots to make them stronger, as many NATO allies struggle to recruit the soldiers, sailors, and pilots that a military build-up will require; and senior defense officials are pushing for more censorship and are said to be looking at Cuba military options.
The EU again failed to strike a new Russia sanctions deal after three days of talks, with Athens reportedly opposing them to shield a Greek shipping company. On the other hand, the EU and Ukraine struck a deal to tap into €10bn of unspent SAFE funds to build drones in Ukraine – with a carve-out to buy some components from China. Ominously, Lithuanian and Latvian leaders also warned that Russia is planning infrastructure attacks on the Baltics or Poland, with other suggestions of potential false flag operations as the trigger for such.
Against that backdrop, and what Ukraine is doing to Russian refineries, a benchmark Bloomberg measure of crack spreads now stands above the panic peak of 2022, so while Brent oil is $85 --bang in line with where Joe DeLaura expected it to hover at while ‘Comfortably Bomb’ plays out-- the price of a barrel of diesel is around $147.
The EU also just published a report calling China a “key enabler” and a “crucial enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine, further noting that: “At the centre of this transformation lies the determination of some powers, Russia and China foremost among them, to establish regional dominance and reshape the global order in line with their interests, fostering a return to a sphere-of-influence logic.”
That language echoes European complaints already made about the US, as a Pew survey shows that Xi now beats Trump in terms of popularity. But given nobody gets to vote on that, how much does such soft power matter? In that regard, the X thread from the US Under Secretary of War poopooing the idea of Middle Powers having options other than siding with the US (or China), which we noted yesterday, drew polarised reactions.
Those who pushed back strongest came from politics or economics, with a few from the military; by contrast, those who said the blunt (so unhelpful) US argument was true think across those disciplines. As a good example, Velina Tchakarova’s ‘The Middle Power Mirage: Colby, the Sceptics, and the Verdict Nobody Wants’ states: “Here is the strategic reality the convening class prefers to avoid. We are in a new Cold War between two systems, Pax Americana 2.0 and the DragonBear, the structural alignment of Chinese and Russian power across every systemically relevant domain. In that contest, middle powers without sufficient strategic leverage or autonomy will not be neutral conveners. They will be the first victims, hollowed out or cannibalized for the sake of global supremacy, or they will become the battlefield itself. There is no comfortable third space for the underprepared.” She also underlines that preparations can be made for that kind of third space, but they are fiscally, political-economically, and even ‘civilisationally’ uncomfortable.
That’s as EU-China trade data this week saw Brussels state that safeguard measures permitting tariffs and quotas against import surges may “become legitimate on a case-by-case basis.”; the UK Treasury suggest alignment of its financial system with the US, not the EU, and a stablecoins framework that opens the door for the USD variant to be used; Bloomberg says ‘Trump's Aides See China Cheating on Trade, But Shun Retaliation’ - there are too many fish to fry in Hormuz, it seems; and India’s PM Modi is pushing to cut import reliance to shield the economy from shocks.
Against this backdrop, national elections are now more existential than during the 2000’s policy consensus for ever more globalisation. Today, each vote can push or pull economies towards one of the two global poles of power, tipping the balance between them and/or legacy vs emerging stakeholders within them.
In that light, Trump is to give an address today focused on “free and fair elections” rumored to be politically explosive, as Democratic Party Senator Fetterman warns he’ll leave the party if it turns its back on Israel, and Supreme Court justices worried about their safety were told by Congress, “There’s not a money fairy up here.” In the UK, the terror inquiry into the murder of former MP Ann Widdecombe continues, as a man was arrested for threatening to shoot Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who is involved in a scandal over a cash gift ‘for his security’. The Times of Israel opines that ‘Netanyahu hits new lows in his battle for survival; there will be a great deal of damage for better leaders to undo’; and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy just ousted his reformist defence minister amid a government reshuffle, which critics have called a serious strategic error.
In short, norms are cracking up around us, not just in refined products, but in less ‘refined’ economics and politics.
To predict how this plays out one needs to join things up; and that involves looking at who is willing to join up, and where.
Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 09:30The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time dropped to just 208k last week - back near its lowest level on record...
...and still showing no signs of stress in the US Labor market.
Continuing jobless claims also fell last week to 1.805 million Americans...
And all of this positive labor market (no fire) news comes as payrolls suggests weaker growth...
It appears the US economy has morphed into a 'slow hire, no fire' regime.
Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 08:56While headline spend at gas stations is expected to decline (due to tumbling pump prices), BofA's almost omniscient analysts forecast a stronger than consensus print for today's US Retail Sales data.
After a big jump in May (revised up), June's Headline retail sales rose 0.2% MoM (as expected), with sales up 6.7% YoY (down modestly)...
Gasoline Stations sales saw the biggest decline (along with small drops in Health Personal Care and Food and Beverage). Nonstore Retailers saw the biggest jump in spend along with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers...
That was the biggest monthly drop in gasoline station sales since Dec 2022...
Nonstore Retailers, Gasoline Station, & Motor Vehicle sales are the biggest drivers of annual (NSA) growth...
Core (Ex-Autos) fell 0.2% MoM and Ex-Autos and Gas rose 0.4% MoM (so declining gas spend was notable), but annual growth in spend remains strong...
Most notably, the Control Group - which feeds directly into the GDP calc - jumped 0.5% MoM (as expected)
Interestingly, 'real' retail sales (admittedly crudely adjusted via CPI) continue to rebound from a negative print in December to its highest since March 2022...
Finally, the American consumer appears to still be spending despite survey-based catastrophic slump in sentiment...
Admittedly, lower-income households have indeed felt the pinch of the gas shock more: they’ve seen a larger increase in necessary spending, which has led to a widening of the “K” in discretionary outlays.
Will that start to ease now that gas prices are starting to tumble? (although rising in recent days).
Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 08:38