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The Big Pharma Psychedelic Buyout Spree Has Begun

Zero Rss
1 month ago
The Big Pharma Psychedelic Buyout Spree Has Begun

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Massive validation for psychedelics…not as drugs, but as investments could be moments away. Just months after I argued for the millionth time that psychedelic drug developers were likely to become acquisition targets as the sector gained legitimacy, it looks like the first major domino may finally be falling.

According to a Bloomberg report published moments ago, Eli Lilly is in talks to acquire AtaiBeckley, one of the leading developers of next-generation psychedelic therapies. While nothing is finalized, Bloomberg reports a deal could be announced as soon as this week, with Lilly negotiating at a premium to AtaiBeckley’s roughly $2 billion market value.

If this transaction gets across the finish line, I don’t think it’ll be remembered as an isolated acquisition. I think it’ll be remembered as the moment Big Pharma officially entered the psychedelic arms race.

I’ve been writing for well over a year that investors were dramatically underestimating how this story would unfold. Most people focused exclusively on whether psychedelic drugs would work. I was far more interested in what would happen once they did.

Back in January when absolutely no one was talking about the sector, I officially hung my balls out there and name it my “Best Idea” sector for 2026. I argued that these companies didn’t need everything to go right. They simply needed legitimacy. Once regulators, clinicians and large pharmaceutical companies accepted these therapies as real medicine instead of fringe science, today’s tiny clinical-stage companies could quickly become strategic assets.

That thesis suddenly looks a lot less theoretical. According to Bloomberg, Lilly has been quietly evaluating the psychedelic space for some time. The acquisition target makes perfect sense.

While the company has become synonymous with obesity drugs over the last several years, many investors forget Lilly built one of the most successful antidepressants in history with Prozac and has continued investing heavily in neuroscience, Alzheimer’s disease and non-opioid pain therapies. Psychedelics are simply the logical next frontier…and I’ve constantly argued they could be a threat to antidepressants.

None of this should come as a surprise to longtime readers.

Just weeks ago, one of my “26 Stocks to Watch for 2026,” Definium Therapeutics, exploded higher after reporting successful Phase 3 results for its LSD-based treatment for major depressive disorder.

The stock surged more than 60% in one session and roughly tripled from where it began the year. When I wrote about those results in June, I reminded readers that my bullish thesis on psychedelics had never been based solely on clinical efficacy. It was based on legitimacy.

I’ve been pounding the table on psychedelic companies since early 2025 because I believed the science was continuing to improve while Washington’s posture toward the sector was quietly changing underneath the surface.

I was writing about these stocks 18 months ago, first in January 2025, calling the psychedelic names “stocks to watch” for the year. Then, in July 2025, urging patience in these positions: Being Early—And Patient—In Psychedelics

Earlier this year I argued that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Department of Health and Human Services would likely help accelerate institutional acceptance of these therapies, particularly for veterans suffering from PTSD, addiction and depression.

In April, after the administration’s executive order supporting psychedelic research, I reiterated my bullish stance and argued that we were moving from the phase where these therapies were ignored into the phase where institutions would be forced to engage with them seriously. That transition appears to be underway.

The administration has publicly supported psychedelic research, federal agencies appear increasingly willing to engage with the field, states continue building regulatory frameworks around treatment programs and the stigma surrounding these compounds has steadily eroded.

Back in January, I wrote that the market was dramatically underpricing one simple reality. These weren’t speculative science projects anymore…they were organized, capitalized pharmaceutical development programs.

As I wrote earlier this year, these companies don’t necessarily need dozens of approvals. They need legitimacy. Once legitimacy arrives, capital follows.

Today we’re beginning to see exactly what that looks like.

I've also remained a believer that the AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF (PSIL) is one of the best ways to gain diversified exposure to the theme. Earlier this year, I even reiterated what many people thought was a ridiculous prediction when I first made it: that PSIL could eventually trade north of $100 if psychedelic medicine evolves into a mainstream investment theme.

That isn't a forecast for next month and it certainly isn't a guarantee. It's simply a reflection of what can happen when an entire sector goes from being dismissed and ignored to becoming institutionally accepted. Markets have a long history of dramatically underpricing paradigm shifts before ultimately overshooting in the opposite direction. If psychedelics follow a similar path, I still believe the long-term upside for the broader sector could be substantially larger than most investors currently imagine.

Importantly, I don’t think Lilly will be the last major pharmaceutical company knocking on these doors.

If psychedelic therapies continue producing successful Phase 3 data, larger drugmakers will increasingly face a choice. Either spend years and billions attempting to build internal psychedelic programs...

...or simply acquire companies that have already done the difficult clinical work.

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History suggests acquisitions usually become the preferred option.

Large pharmaceutical companies routinely buy innovation rather than inventing everything themselves. Oncology, gene therapy, obesity drugs and biotechnology more broadly have all gone through similar acquisition waves as promising clinical data accumulated.

There’s little reason to believe psychedelics will prove different.

In fact, the economics may become even more compelling. Many of these companies still carry relatively modest market capitalizations despite owning potentially valuable intellectual property and late-stage assets. For a pharmaceutical company generating tens of billions in annual revenue, paying several billion dollars for a differentiated neuroscience platform may ultimately prove inexpensive if these treatments become standard of care.

That’s exactly why I’ve been saying for more than a year that investors shouldn’t think only about FDA approvals. They should think about strategic value.

Clinical success doesn’t just create future revenue, it creates scarcity. And scarcity is exactly what fuels acquisition premiums. I’ve long believed the market was dramatically underestimating this possibility.

Today’s Lilly-AtaiBeckley news doesn’t prove the entire thesis. But it certainly looks like the first major piece of evidence that the industry’s next phase has arrived.

If anything, I think the acquisition race is only beginning. As more late-stage trial results emerge, more regulatory milestones are reached and institutional acceptance continues expanding, I expect the list of potential buyers to grow rather than shrink.

For years, psychedelic investing has been on the fence. Lilly just legitimized it. And my readers we were at the party first.

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QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 08:05
Tyler Durden

New Poll Shows American Voters Overwhelmingly Reject Communism, Dealing A Blow To DSA

Zero Rss
1 month ago
New Poll Shows American Voters Overwhelmingly Reject Communism, Dealing A Blow To DSA

The Democratic Socialists of America are intensifying their consolidation of power within the Democratic Party, winning low-turnout local elections as establishment Democrats struggle to contain the spread of socialism and Marxism within their DEI kingdom.

DSA leaders and politicians have openly embraced anti-American rhetoric centered on dismantling capitalism and calling for revolution, while their unofficial spokesperson, Hasan Piker, has amplified inflammatory calls to "kill capitalists."

Hasan Piker calls on his followers to kill capitalists:

“Yeah kill them! KiII those motherfuckers and murder those motherfuckers in the streets. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood, dude.”

Democrats are campaigning with him. pic.twitter.com/YiZxGgRkgc

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) April 9, 2026

The larger question is whether mainstream America is prepared to follow DSA revolutionaries toward a violent revolution from within the nation to sow chaos, as federal investigations grow over the group's alleged links to foreign subversion networks connected to Cuba and China.

Convincing average voters to embrace a far-left agenda, especially one wrapped in revolution and anti-capitalist rhetoric, will be an extraordinarily difficult sell to folks who just want to live life and own property.

Frank, Aaron, Hank and Sam are Communist insurgents, radicalized marxist revolutionaries hiding behind personal ideologies to justfy their 1A expressions of the right to promote the insurrection of the Constitutional Republic of the United States of America pic.twitter.com/XLzzjisOqd

— AnimalFarm1945 (Moshe) (@Farm1945A) July 6, 2026

Washington, DC-based research and polling firm Echelon Insights has captured a new sentiment snapshot of voters from a poll last week that showed just how unpopular DSA, socialism, and communism are... 

The clearest takeaway is that voters strongly prefer market-oriented ideas:

  • Free-market economy: 53% favorable, 12% unfavorable, a +41 net rating
  • Capitalism: 49% favorable, 29% unfavorable, +20
  • MAHA: 39% favorable, 33% unfavorable, +6
  • Social democracy: 36% favorable, 31% unfavorable, +5

Most political parties, figures, and left-wing movements are underwater, with socialism and communism ranking the worst:

  • Democratic Party: 43% favorable, 52% unfavorable, -9
  • JD Vance: 39% favorable, 53% unfavorable, -14
  • Republican Party: 40% favorable, 56% unfavorable, -16
  • Democratic Socialists of America: 25% favorable, 46% unfavorable, -21
  • Donald Trump: 38% favorable, 61% unfavorable, -23
  • MAGA: 32% favorable, 57% unfavorable, -25
  • Socialism: 23% favorable, 52% unfavorable, -29
  • Communism: 5% favorable, 78% unfavorable, -73

Echelon Insights: Net Favorability Ratings

🟢 Capitalism: +20
🟢 MAHA: +9
🟤 Free Palestine movement: -14
🟤 DSA: -21
🟤 MAGA: -25
🟤 Socialism: -29
🟤 Communism: -73https://t.co/GtGphxr02l pic.twitter.com/iUMiPRucZz

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 14, 2026

The survey suggests that Americans remain strongly supportive of free markets and very negative toward socialism and communism, even as both major political parties and many top political figures suffer from plunging ratings.

Nate Silver's January 2026 ratings gave Echelon an A- score, with its predictive score indicating that the polling firm is expected to outperform the average pollster. Echelon also performed well during the 2024 election cycle, recording an average polling error of roughly 2 percentage points.

The polling data help explain why establishment Democrats have become increasingly alarmed by the rise of DSA, which they view as derailing the party in future elections because revolution is just not popular with the average voter.

Even a former Bill Clinton adviser wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed last week calling for investigations into DSA for possible foreign influence and subversion networks.

Ultimately, DSA is making a massive political gamble that it can persuade enough Americans and migrants to embrace class struggle and pursue a revolution. The problem is that such a move risks provoking a federal response, particularly as U.S. officials increasingly examine whether elements of DSA's revolutionary movement are intertwined with foreign influence and subversion networks.

After all, DSA has admitted that it is a "partner" of the sanctioned ICAP…

Perhaps that helps explain why the group is so eager to pursue Marxist revolution.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 07:45
Tyler Durden

UBS: TSMC's 'Surprise CapEx Hike' Reinforces Confidence In AI Supply Chain

Zero Rss
1 month ago
UBS: TSMC's 'Surprise CapEx Hike' Reinforces Confidence In AI Supply Chain

TSMC, or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest contract chipmaker, raised its 2026 spending and revenue outlook on Thursday morning, a move UBS analysts said "boosts confidence in the AI supply chain."

TSMC manufactures chips designed by companies such as Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Qualcomm and Broadcom. It is a major supplier of Nvidia chips used in AI data centers. The company now expects 2026 capital expenditures of $60 billion to $64 billion, up from its previous forecast of $52 billion to $56 billion, while projecting dollar-denominated revenue growth of slightly more than 40%.

Here are second quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):

  • Net income NT$706.6 billion, estimate NT$623.73 billion
  • Gross margin 67.7%, estimate 67.1%
  • Operating profit NT$766.6 billion, estimate NT$742.75 billion
  • Operating margin 60.3%, estimate 58.6%
  • Sales NT$1.27 trillion, estimate NT$1.27 trillion

Third quarter forecast:

  • Sees sales $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion, estimate $43.11 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
  • Sees gross margin 65% to 67%, estimate 65.9%
  • Sees operating margin 56% to 58%, estimate 57.7%

"AI-related demand continues to be extremely robust," TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei told analysts on a post-earnings call. 

TSMC also plans to invest another $100 billion in Arizona, lifting that total commitment to $265 billion. The expansion will include additional 2-nanometer chip plants and advanced packaging facilities to meet multi-year demand across the Americas. 

Wei added, "This is to build several or more semiconductor logical wafer fab for two nanometer MP [mass production] technologies, as well as advanced packaging fabs to support the strong multi-year demand from our leading U.S. customers."

CFO Wendell Huang said, "Our conviction in the AI megatrend is very strong.The capex in the next three years will be even more, significantly higher than in the past three years."

UBS analyst Crystal Hsu told clients earlier that "TSMC's Surprise Capex Hike Boosts Confidence In AI Supply Chain."

Hsu continued:

Despite TSMC's relatively conservative gross margin outlook for Q2 and Q3, investors generally believe the company prioritizes customer relationships and may smooth margin trends through the second half of the year.

The increase in capex guidance to USD 60–64 bn came as a positive surprise, as TSMC rarely raises capex guidance in Q2 and the magnitude of the revision exceeded 10%. Investors expect a positive read-through for the semiconductor production equipment (SPE) space.

More importantly, TSMC's constructive commentary could help restore market confidence, as many investors see little change in the underlying fundamentals despite the market pullback over the past month, which appears to have been driven largely by positioning and sentiment rather than by a deterioration in fundamentals.

Shares of TSMC were marginally higher in Asia, closing up a little more than 1%. The stock has gained 59% this year as the AI boom propels chipmakers to new highs. But in recent weeks, the AI trade has hit a brick wall as Goldman warns of rising hyperscaler bond issuance and mounting stress in credit markets.

TSMC's accelerating expansion comes a day after ASML Holding delivered strong earnings and raised its full-year guidance. ASML produces lithography machines, the equipment that chipmakers such as TSMC use to manufacture advanced semiconductors.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 06:55
Tyler Durden

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