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Ukraine is desperately short of US-made Patriot air defense missiles that can counter Russia’s ballistic missiles.

The stolen vehicles were found outside of the suspects' home.

Kuwait, Qatar Ramp Up Hormuz Oil Flows As Oman-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears

Brent crude futures fell to an intraday low of $86.22 a barrel early Thursday before recovering above $88 by 0630 ET. The benchmark is down 6.3% this week as traders unwind part of the war-risk premium amid growing optimism that renewed diplomatic efforts involving Iran, Oman and Qatar could reduce the threat of drone attacks on tankers in the critical waterway.

Bloomberg reported earlier that Kuwait and Qatar are restoring crude exports through the highly contested maritime chokepoint. Sources familiar with energy flows in the Gulf region say that both producers are shipping about 70% of the combined 2 million barrels a day they exported before the Iran war.

Total oil shipments via tankers have climbed to between 7 million and 8 million barrels a day, up from roughly 4 million barrels a day in mid-July and equal to about 75% of prewar levels, according to the outlet.

London-based energy and freight analytics firm Vortexa told clients in a separate report that the estimated seven-day average for oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz has approached 10 million barrels a day.

The recovery in the critical waterway helps explain why Brent crude retreated to $86 earlier this morning after surging above $120 in late April. The Trump administration and Tehran remain deadlocked over finding another resolution, but Gulf exporters are increasingly finding ways around the disruption.

The outlet noted that the United Arab Emirates was the first to transit crude through the strait before transferring it to other vessels in the Gulf of Oman.

Maritime research firm TankerTrackers was the first to report the increase in ship-to-ship transfers on Tuesday.

A busy day in the Gulf of Oman, where there are at least fifteen sets of STS transfer sessions taking place. We count 25 million barrels of crude oil; plus some refined products. The oil originates from almost every country in the region, minus Iran.#OOTT #IranWar #Tankers pic.twitter.com/TAba26mJiW

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) August 25, 2026

"An Iran-Oman framework for a 'temporary joint maritime corridor' is pulling oil lower. It remains difficult to envision how the US would sign off on this given the concurrent ratcheting up of economic pressure," UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst wrote in a note.

Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities, said on Wednesday, "It seems crude is now beginning to price in a sooner-rather-than-later peace deal."

Beyond Iran and Oman's diplomatic push to reopen the strait, Reuters reported that both countries are working to clear all naval mines from the waterway. President Trump said earlier this week that all mines had been removed.

However, with disruptions to Middle Eastern refineries and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, the energy crisis has morphed into a crude-products crisis, with diesel crack spreads in the US still trading above $90 a barrel. Last week, the spread hit an unprecedented $100-a-barrel level as global diesel supplies dwindled.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/27/2026 - 07:20

The "Kardashians" star's friend Anastasia Karanikolaou told "Better Half" listeners Wednesday that the 29-year-old has "an obsession with big tits."

The "Kardashians" star's friend Anastasia Karanikolaou told "Better Half" listeners Wednesday that the 29-year-old has "an obsession with big tits."

The 2026 PGA Tour comes to an end this weekend.

New users can claim up to $1K matched in FanCash with the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code NYPOST26 for the TOUR Championship.

The insider said the newlyweds are still soaking up the excitement of making things official after tying the knot in a star-studded ceremony at Madison Square Garden on July 3.

The insider said the newlyweds are still soaking up the excitement of making things official after tying the knot in a star-studded ceremony at Madison Square Garden on July 3.

The $150 Trillion Global Economy In 2030

The world economy is projected to exceed $150 trillion by 2030, with significant growth coming from emerging markets in Asia.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen shows countries’ projected nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2030, based on forecasts from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook.

The World’s Largest Economies in 2030

The three largest national economies in 2030 are projected to be the same as in 2026. The United States leads at $37.7 trillion, followed by China at $26 trillion and Germany at a distant third with $6.2 trillion.

Combined, these three economies are projected to add more than $10 trillion in economic output between 2026 and 2030, led by China.

The table below lists the world’s economies by forecast nominal GDP in 2030.

Rank Country 2030 GDP (billions $) Share of World Economy 1 🇺🇸 United States 37,678 25.1% 2 🇨🇳 China 26,047 17.3% 3 🇩🇪 Germany 6,178 4.1% 4 🇮🇳 India 6,173 4.1% 5 🇬🇧 United Kingdom 5,148 3.4% 6 🇯🇵 Japan 5,002 3.3% 7 🇫🇷 France 4,004 2.7% 8 🇧🇷 Brazil 3,204 2.1% 9 🇮🇹 Italy 3,046 2.0% 10 🇨🇦 Canada 3,008 2.0% 11 🇷🇺 Russia 2,592 1.7% 12 🇲🇽 Mexico 2,549 1.7% 13 🇦🇺 Australia 2,484 1.7% 14 🇪🇸 Spain 2,472 1.6% 15 🇰🇷 South Korea 2,267 1.5% 16 🇮🇩 Indonesia 2,082 1.4% 17 🇹🇷 Türkiye 1,934 1.3% 18 🇳🇱 Netherlands 1,655 1.1% 19 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 1,650 1.1% 20 🇵🇱 Poland 1,388 0.9% 21 🇨🇭 Switzerland 1,347 0.9% 22 🇹🇼 Taiwan 1,214 0.8% 23 🇸🇪 Sweden 909.9 0.6% 24 🇮🇪 Ireland 893.8 0.6% 25 🇮🇱 Israel 875.8 0.6% 26 🇧🇪 Belgium 863.8 0.6% 27 🇦🇷 Argentina 833.3 0.6% 28 🇸🇬 Singapore 787.7 0.5% 29 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates 770.2 0.5% 30 🇵🇭 Philippines 715.5 0.5% 31 🇦🇹 Austria 706.6 0.5% 32 🇧🇩 Bangladesh 677.0 0.5% 33 🇲🇾 Malaysia 672.5 0.4% 34 🇻🇳 Vietnam 667.5 0.4% 35 🇹🇭 Thailand 647.5 0.4% 36 🇨🇴 Colombia 632.1 0.4% 37 🇷🇴 Romania 613.8 0.4% 38 🇳🇴 Norway 611.8 0.4% 39 🇪🇬 Egypt 611.0 0.4% 40 🇩🇰 Denmark 589.2 0.4% 41 🇿🇦 South Africa 555.3 0.4% 42 🇭🇰 Hong Kong 536.9 0.4% 43 🇨🇿 Czech Republic 506.8 0.3% 44 🇨🇱 Chile 496.8 0.3% 45 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan 468.8 0.3% 46 🇳🇬 Nigeria 464.8 0.3% 47 🇵🇹 Portugal 444.9 0.3% 48 🇵🇪 Peru 437.1 0.3% 49 🇫🇮 Finland 388.6 0.3% 50 🇬🇷 Greece 357.3 0.2% 51 🇮🇷 Iran 349.5 0.2% 52 🇮🇶 Iraq 339.8 0.2% 53 🇭🇺 Hungary 329.6 0.2% 54 🇳🇿 New Zealand 327.1 0.2% 55 🇩🇿 Algeria 325.4 0.2% 56 🇶🇦 Qatar 288.9 0.2% 57 🇺🇦 Ukraine 274.5 0.2% 58 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 273.4 0.2% 59 🇲🇦 Morocco 263.2 0.2% 60 🇪🇹 Ethiopia 211.6 0.1% 61 🇸🇰 Slovakia 203.7 0.1% 62 🇰🇼 Kuwait 193.4 0.1% 63 🇧🇬 Bulgaria 190.1 0.1% 64 🇰🇪 Kenya 183.6 0.1% 65 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic 177.4 0.1% 66 🇬🇹 Guatemala 174.8 0.1% 67 🇦🇴 Angola 171.6 0.1% 68 🇪🇨 Ecuador 163.8 0.1% 69 🇨🇩 Congo, Dem. Rep. of the 163.6 0.1% 70 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire 156.3 0.1% 71 🇷🇸 Serbia 148.1 0.1% 72 🇵🇷 Puerto Rico 145.6 0.1% 73 🇬🇭 Ghana 142.1 0.1% 74 🇭🇷 Croatia 140.6 0.1% 75 🇹🇿 Tanzania 137.2 0.1% 76 🇨🇷 Costa Rica 136.7 0.1% 77 🇴🇲 Oman 134.1 0.1% 78 🇱🇺 Luxembourg 129.3 0.1% 79 🇱🇹 Lithuania 128.6 0.1% 80 🇧🇾 Belarus 127.1 0.1% 81 🇵🇦 Panama 123.1 0.1% 82 🇺🇾 Uruguay 115.3 0.1% 83 🇲🇲 Myanmar 107.6 0.1% 84 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan 107.3 0.1% 85 🇺🇬 Uganda 103.9 0.1% 86 🇸🇮 Slovenia 102.5 0.1% 87 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan 99.6 0.1% 88 🇨🇲 Cameroon 85.8 0.1% 89 🇯🇴 Jordan 80.1 0.1% 90 🇵🇾 Paraguay 75.5 0.1% 91 🇰🇭 Cambodia 70.4 0.05% 92 🇱🇻 Latvia 65.9 0.04% 93 🇲🇴 Macau 65.5 0.04% 94 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe 65.0 0.04% 95 🇳🇵 Nepal 64.2 0.04% 96 🇪🇪 Estonia 62.4 0.04% 97 🇸🇩 Sudan 62.1 0.04% 98 🇹🇳 Tunisia 61.6 0.04% 99 🇬🇪 Georgia 61.5 0.04% 100 🇧🇭 Bahrain 58.2 0.04% 101 🇿🇲 Zambia 55.9 0.04% 102 🇨🇾 Cyprus 55.2 0.04% 103 🇮🇸 Iceland 52.7 0.04% 104 🇭🇳 Honduras 52.0 0.03% 105 🇬🇾 Guyana 50.4 0.03% 106 🇱🇾 Libya 49.8 0.03% 107 🇸🇻 El Salvador 49.6 0.03% 108 🇸🇳 Senegal 49.3 0.03% 109 🇭🇹 Haiti 48.9 0.03% 110 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 45.3 0.03% 111 🇲🇱 Mali 45.0 0.03% 112 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso 44.0 0.03% 113 🇬🇳 Guinea 43.9 0.03% 114 🇦🇱 Albania 41.5 0.03% 115 🇦🇲 Armenia 40.7 0.03% 116 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea 40.3 0.03% 117 🇲🇹 Malta 38.6 0.03% 118 🇧🇯 Benin 38.5 0.03% 119 🇲🇳 Mongolia 37.7 0.03% 120 🇳🇪 Niger 33.9 0.02% 121 🇹🇩 Chad 33.5 0.02% 122 🇳🇮 Nicaragua 31.8 0.02% 123 🇲🇼 Malawi 31.4 0.02% 124 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago 31.3 0.02% 125 🇧🇼 Botswana 30.9 0.02% 126 🇲🇿 Mozambique 30.9 0.02% 127 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan 30.9 0.02% 128 🇲🇬 Madagascar 30.7 0.02% 129 🇲🇩 Moldova 30.2 0.02% 130 🇬🇦 Gabon 27.6 0.02% 131 🇲🇰 North Macedonia 27.3 0.02% 132 🇯🇲 Jamaica 26.6 0.02% 133 🇹🇯 Tajikistan 25.7 0.02% 134 🇱🇦 Laos 23.4 0.02% 135 🇷🇼 Rwanda 22.7 0.02% 136 🇲🇺 Mauritius 21.9 0.01% 137 🇨🇬 Congo, Republic of 21.7 0.01% 138 🇳🇦 Namibia 21.4 0.01% 139 🇸🇴 Somalia 19.9 0.01% 140 🇧🇳 Brunei 19.8 0.01% 141 🇧🇸 Bahamas 19.5 0.01% 142 🇽🇰 Kosovo 18.4 0.01% 143 🇹🇬 Togo 17.9 0.01% 144 🇲🇷 Mauritania 17.4 0.01% 145 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea 15.0 0.01% 146 🇸🇷 Suriname 13.6 0.01% 147 🇲🇪 Montenegro 12.6 0.01% 148 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein 10.9 0.01% 149 🇲🇻 Maldives 10.4 0.01% 150 🇧🇧 Barbados 10.3 0.01% 151 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone 10.0 0.01% 152 🇧🇮 Burundi 9.5 0.01% 153 🇸🇸 South Sudan 7.8 0.01% 154 🇫🇯 Fiji 7.8 0.01% 155 🇱🇷 Liberia 7.4 0.005% 156 🇾🇪 Yemen 7.0 0.005% 157 🇸🇿 Eswatini 6.8 0.005% 158 🇩🇯 Djibouti 6.1 0.004% 159 🇧🇹 Bhutan 5.7 0.004% 160 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde 4.6 0.003% 161 🇨🇫 Central African Republic 4.5 0.003% 162 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau 4.0 0.003% 163 🇧🇿 Belize 3.9 0.003% 164 🇬🇲 Gambia, The 3.8 0.003% 165 🇱🇸 Lesotho 3.6 0.002% 166 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia 3.3 0.002% 167 🇹🇱 Timor-Leste 2.8 0.002% 168 🇸🇲 San Marino 2.7 0.002% 169 🇸🇨 Seychelles 2.7 0.002% 170 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands 2.4 0.002% 171 🇰🇲 Comoros 2.3 0.002% 172 🇬🇩 Grenada 1.8 0.001% 173 🇻🇺 Vanuatu 1.7 0.001% 174 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe 1.7 0.001% 175 🇼🇸 Samoa 1.7 0.001% 176 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1.5 0.001% 177 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis 1.4 0.001% 178 🇩🇲 Dominica 1.0 0.001% 179 🇹🇴 Tonga 0.8 0.001% 180 🇫🇲 Micronesia, Fed. States of 0.6 0.0004% -- 🌐 Global Total 150,344 100.0%

IMF forecasts not available for Afghanistan, Bolivia, Cuba, Eritrea, Lebanon, North Korea, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Syria, and Venezuela.

The race for third place is remarkably close. Germany is projected at $6.178 trillion in 2030, compared with $6.173 trillion for India, a difference of just $5 billion.

India could soon overtake Germany in nominal GDP if current growth trajectories continue. The ranking looks very different when adjusting for purchasing power parity, where India’s economy is already roughly three times the size of Germany’s.

The Rise of Asia

By 2030, Asia and the Middle East are projected to generate $55.7 trillion in economic output, accounting for more than a third of the global economy.

Japan will be the region’s next-largest economy after China and India, at $5 trillion, followed by South Korea ($2.3 trillion) and Indonesia ($2.1 trillion).

The long-stagnating Japanese economy has seen growth sputter in recent decades. Once the world’s second-largest economy, Japan was surpassed by China in 2010 and Germany in 2024.

Europe: The Balanced Economy

Europe’s $37 trillion economy is projected to be one of the world’s most balanced by country in 2030. By comparison, a single country accounts for more than half of the continental economy in both North and South America.

Europe is projected to account for roughly a fifth of the global economy in 2030. Assuming no new additions or withdrawals, European Union member countries will reach a combined nominal GDP of $26.5 trillion, led by Germany, France ($4 trillion), and Italy ($3 trillion).

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom ($5.1 trillion) will remain the continent’s largest non-EU economy, followed by Russia ($2.6 trillion). Russia is among the few major economies expected to contract between 2026 and 2030.

To learn more about Asia’s growing economic weight relative to the West, check out Asia’s GDP (PPP) Surpasses North America and Europe Combined Since the 2000s on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/27/2026 - 06:55

Glacier Wall Collapse May Have Sparked Deadly Flash Flood That Swallowed Nepal-Tibet Border Crossing

Summary:

• Glacier Collapse May Have Sparked Nepal Flash Flood
• 100 Dead, 300 Missing, according to Nepal's government (54 Americans among hundreds missing) 
• Deadly Flash Flood Near Nepal's Border with Tibet Swallows Entire Border Crossing

Experts Say Glacier Collapse Sparked Deadly Flooding

Reuters reports that the massive, "Day After Tomorrow"-like flash flood along Nepal's border with Tibet, which completely wiped out a border crossing, could have been triggered by a massive glacier collapse.

Planet Labs satellite imagery reviewed by scientists showed that the lower section of a glacier broke away at an elevation of roughly 5,200 meters before plunging about 1,200 meters onto the valley floor.

"What I can see in this morning's satellite imagery from Planet Labs, the lower part of a glacier broke off at about 5,200 meters and crashed onto the valley floor about 1,200 meters below," scientist Dan Shugar, an associate professor at the University of Calgary, told the outlet.

Planet Labs को स्याटेलाइट तस्बिरको विश्लेषणका आधारमा गरिएको प्रारम्भिक अध्ययनबाट नेपाल-चीन रसुवागढी नाकाबाट करिब २० किलोमिटर उत्तरपूर्व नेपाल-चीन सिमानामा गएको हिम-चट्टान पहिरोका कारण ल्हेन्दे खोलामा गेग्य्रानसहितको बाढी आएको देखिएको छ। pic.twitter.com/kCAo9O1Zb0

— NDRRMA (@NDRRMA_Nepal) August 26, 2026

The confirmed casualty count currently stands at 100 bodies recovered, while more than 300 travelers remain missing, according to Nepali authorities, who warned that the death toll could rise dramatically.

New York Post Reports:

• 54 Americans among hundreds missing after deadly flood pummels China-Nepal border

BREAKING: We have our first satellite images of the devastating Nepal/China floods, courtesy of our hardworking friends at Planet Labs, Inc.

This shows the Triushuli River more than quintupling in width and rising by 50-100 feet in some spots. For the hundreds reported missing,… pic.twitter.com/yjIwiPrvgp

— MyRadar Weather (@MyRadarWX) August 26, 2026 Terrifying Video Captures 'Day After Tomorrow'-Like Flood Swallowing Entire China-Nepal Border Checkpoint

At least 31 people were confirmed dead, and hundreds of tourists and travelers remained missing after a catastrophic flash flood tore through Nepal's border region with Tibet.

This image helps explain what happened along the Nepal–Tibet border. According to reports, a magnitude 4.4 earthquake on the Tibetan side triggered a massive ice avalanche, which then led to the flash flooding of the Bhotekoshi River in Nepal. Around 1,000 people are missing, and… pic.twitter.com/2n46czGNoB

— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) August 26, 2026

The South China Morning Post shared horrifying security-camera footage circulating online that appeared to show people fleeing as a giant wall of water, mud, and debris crashed through a checkpoint on the China-Nepal border.

A landslide at the China-Nepal border has hit a key checkpoint with Tibet, resulting in “major casualties”, according to state media and footage shared online. pic.twitter.com/rc7teWCa2r

— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) August 26, 2026

SCMP cited Chinese state media outlets that said the flash flood struck the border area around 0900 local time before spilling into Gyirong County in Tibet, causing what authorities described as "major casualties and missing persons" at the border checkpoint.

More from SCMP:

In Nepal, 384 tourists and travelers were missing after the landslide, including 93 Nepalese and 291 foreigners, according to the Nepal Tourism Board.

The board said the missing foreigners included citizens from India, Australia, the United States, Britain, and the Netherlands. The nationalities of 111 individuals had yet to be confirmed.

Other dramatic footage:

🇳🇵 🇨🇳 Massive flood sweeps through northern Nepal

Massive flooding has killed several people in Nepal as Chinese state media reported "major casualties" from a mudslide at a Tibet trade hub on China's side of the nations' shared border. pic.twitter.com/NaCZrQ3qrP

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) August 26, 2026

#BREAKING .
devastating Flooding Nepal China 🇳🇵😭😭😭😭
Pray For Nepal 🇳🇵🇳🇵😭😭#flooding #Nepal #China pic.twitter.com/L6zqWDF3BJ

— Kiran Joshi ( Follow Back 100%) Live #Ukraine (@Kiranjoshi900) August 26, 2026

Flash floods have swept away entire villages in Nepal’s Rasuwa area, killing at least nine people. Local reports say an earthquake triggered an avalanche that caused the flooding. The Nepal Tourism Board says 291 foreign nationals, including at least 105 Indian tourists, are… pic.twitter.com/OY7Pe6FLbv

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) August 26, 2026

No, that’s not smoke — it’s floodwater engulfing Nepal

Aerial footage shows the extent of the damage following DEVASTATING flooding

Hundreds have gone missing, while many are feared dead

Video: Kantipur on X https://t.co/ZTIomUGfLz pic.twitter.com/WHxwWilwTq

— RTVisual (@RT_Visual_on_X) August 26, 2026

The US Embassy in Nepal responded to the natural disaster on X, saying it was "deeply saddened" by the loss of life caused by the flood. "We extend our sincere condolences to the families and loved ones of those who lost their lives, and our thoughts are with all those affected by this disaster."

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/27/2026 - 06:45

A glacier collapse triggered this week’s catastrophic flash floods that killed at least 273 and left more than 1,300 missing when it hit the Nepal-China border, unleashing what officials have described as a "tsunami from the sky."

Marijuana use can indirectly cause life-threatening complications. A 15-year-old learned this the hard way.

Ramesh Sharma, 65, and his wife Neelam Sharma, 64, are “missing and unaccounted” for after being caught in Wednesday’s floods and landslides en-route to the sacred peak of Mount Kailash.

“We were left with holes in our hearts,” said Aphrodite Tsairis, 83, who lost her daughter, Alexia, 20, in the bombing. “There will always be an empty seat at our table."

The swanky oceanfront Devon Yacht Club in Amagansett -- which reportedly charges around $100,000 in initiation fees -- canceled its Wednesday night dinner service and Thursday food service.

Global Youth Unemployment And Inactivity Inch Up Again

For two years in a row, global unemployment and inactivity among youths aged 15 to 24 has inched up again across world regions.

As seen in data by the International Labor Organization, the coronavirus pandemic caused these rates to go up in 2020, but the situation improved again gradually, in 2022 and 2023 falling below pre-pandemic levels.

But, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, since then, rates have been on a slow upswing once more, reaching 12.4 percent of youths in the labor force who are unemployed and 20 percent of youths overall who are either unemployed or not engaging in any activity like education, training, employment or looking for work.

You will find more infographics at Statista

According to the recently released ILO report Global Employment Trends for Youth 2026, progress made in the area of youth employment post-Covid has come to an "abrupt halt" as uncertainty and fragility have taken over global economies, GDP growth has remained subdued and inflation has been high. The report also points out that there has not only been a deterioration in the quantity, but also the quality of jobs for youths globally, meaning that many are underemployed or work jobs that don't match their qualifications. Especially the group of NEETs (who are neither in employment, education or training) is made up of a high number of women and girls, who tend to focus on housework and family care responsibilities more often.

12.4 percent unemployed young people between the ages of 15 and 24 equal 67 million individuals worldwide, while the NEET rate of 20 percent translates to 257 million youths. Unemployment rates were higher among young men, while NEET status was more widespread among young women.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/27/2026 - 05:45

If Laura Overdeck wins the astronomical sum, her divorce from John would only fall behind those of Bill and Melinda Gates and Jeff Bezos and MacKenzie Scott as the most expensive in US history.

A Rhode Island man was killed in a shootout with police after he allegedly stole a rare, luxury sailboat from a Jersey City marina and hightailed the vessel back to his home state.

BBC Unleashes El Niño Apocalypse Fearmongering

Authored by Guy de la Bédoyère via The Daily Sceptic,

Friday, August 21st 2026 was a slow news day. You could tell because the BBC's Radio 4 6 O'Clock News led with the vacuous revelation Harry and Meghan are coming back to the UK. Slightly less uninteresting was the second story, the disastrous case against the Mail and how Harry and his fellow litigants are going to have to pay tens of millions of pounds to the newspaper in compensation.

There were more vacuous revelations to come. The 'other' top story was the impending catastrophe promised by the mounting El Niño crisis in the Pacific. The 6 O'Clock News was typical of the corporation's output for the day.

This is how the bulletin flagged up the story in the headlines:

[Announcer] Dire warnings from the Met Office about the effects of what it describes as an unprecedented El Niño event.

Cue then to the Voice of Doom, in this case the obliging Professor Adam Scaife - head of the Met Office's long-range forecasting and a professor of applied maths at the University of Exeter - who was identified later in the bulletin:

We think that when it peaks in November and December it's likely to be [a] record event, beyond anything we've seen in living memory.

That sort of phrasing, readers may recall, is straight out of the 17th-century playbook of weather catastrophising, as I discussed in a piece for this website in 2024 ('They Were Catastrophising the Climate in the 17th Century'). Instead of the modern 'since records began', Scaife had opted for a version of the 17th Century's equivalent. Here's a quote from that piece I wrote:

All summer long there were "so great rains, that produced greater floods than in the memory of man", wrote John Locke in 1673.

Such methods of emphasising a point are a handy way of terrorising oneself and other people because they evoke a sense of something both unprecedented and terrifying, predicated entirely on the nebulous limits of human memory without even specifying what that amounts to - or doesn't.

Just look at the BBC's wording.

Not only are there "warnings", but they are also "dire". 'Dire' comes from the Latin word dirus, which means something 'awful' or 'ominous'. Appropriately enough, it was a word often used by the Romans in a religious context when confronted with a bad omen, either in the form of a natural event or as the result of a sacrifice, such as the examination of the animal victim's entrails.

There was something overwhelmingly religious about the bulletin's coverage of the El Niño apocalypse because it served as no more than a harbinger of doom - something that might or might not happen and, even if it does, we are in no position to know exactly what form it will take.

It was ironic, but typical, that a scientist confronted with something he doesn't know for a fact but is only guessing resorted to religious-style phrasing. This was exactly the sort of behaviour we saw during Covid too. The phenomenon is in fact entirely normal for most human beings. We live in a world of uncertainty and there is a latent desire among all people to believe they live in exceptional times.

Scientists are all too inclined, in circumstances where they do not know what will happen, to use their scientific status to substantiate such claims. This affords their pronouncements an aura of false credibility - both to themselves and their audiences.

The full item was delivered by the BBC's Environment Correspondent Matt McGrath (spin forward in the bulletin to 07:26). It included more of Scaife - he has worked in the meteorology field since the early 1990s - who expanded darkly: "I have never seen an event like this in our forecasts."

McGrath:

[Vague sounds of weather and barely audible Spanish fading down] In Peru this week the famous Machu Picchu tourist trail closed because of flooding, said to be [my italics] linked to a strengthening El Niño. This is the naturally occurring pattern that shifts weather across the globe. Scientists are growing ever more concerned [my italics] that this year's event will be exceptionally strong with widespread impacts.

Let's linger with McGrath's intro for a moment. First, note how he used the words "said to be" when suggesting that the flooding might be linked to a "strengthening El Niño". "Said to be"? That's like a medieval rumour and as fatuous as Percy's observation to Blackadder that "They do say that the Infanta's eyes are more beautiful than the famous Stone of Galveston." He also uses "ever more concerned" to suggest a crisis which isn't only impending but is also becoming worse, to add some gratuitous dynamic to the story.

McGrath continued: "Professor Adam Scaife is the Met Office's head of long-range forecasting:"

[Scaife] I have never seen an event like this in our forecasts. The tropical Pacific is warming faster than I've ever seen. We think that when it peaks in November and December it's likely to be [a] record event, unprecedented beyond anything we've seen in living memory.

You'll note that although this was depicted as a sound scientific opinion, the words of Scaife quoted amounted to no more than a personal anecdote. It was unsubstantiated - with no data or detail of any kind supplied (perhaps McGrath cut it out). Naturally, it also went completely unchallenged. It's at moments like this that scientists seem entirely to forget the scientific principle that you should test every hypothesis to destruction, not make vague pronouncements based on your perception of the utility and relevance of the limits of human memory.

McGrath continued:

In Panama drought has drained the freshwater lakes that feed the shipping canal, forcing the authorities to cut the number of vessels passing through. And the effects are already reaching people's pockets. India, the world's second-biggest sugar producer, is now importing for the first time in a decade. A weak monsoon has hit production, and prices have jumped 40% in two months.

Despite the assertion that the event is unprecedented, in July 1920 and during the 1930s drought brought water levels in Gatún Lake dangerously low, nearly forcing closures of the canal and prompting major new dam construction to secure its water supply. This led to the building of the Madden Dam across the Chagres River in 1935 to create Lake Alajuela, which bolstered the water supply.

As for India, McGrath - who appeared only to have followed other news releases on Friday - didn't mention that India is also one of the largest sugar consumers in the world and thus especially vulnerable to fluctuations in the crop. A 'decade' is hardly a long time in world history for a start. As it happens, India's sugar production has increased by a staggering 7.6 times since the mid-1970s, meaning that El Niño aside, any environmental fluctuations are going to have more visible effects.

Moreover, any problems caused by high rainfall have been compounded by Red Rot and Top Borer disease, as well as stockpiling and speculation (according to the Financial Express). This illustrates just how complex these scenarios are, and the banality of attributing them to single causes.

McGrath ploughed on:

And it's not just food that's likely to be impacted. The same weather turmoil could push up energy prices too. Professor Amanda Maycock [of the Met Office Academic Partnership] is from the University of Leeds:

[Maycock] I think we're definitely looking at the compound effect of different influences from a weather and climate perspective - you know, the prices of things like liquid natural gas imports and so on can be affected by demand that's happening elsewhere in the world, which may well be affected by the El Niño if there are droughts in certain regions, reductions in the production of hydroelectricity, for example in places like Brazil. That could have a knock-on effect for us here in the UK.

Apart from observing the eternal fact that the weather and climate affect human activity, Maycock didn't seem to say much of consequence at all - at least in what McGrath used. But note the opening words "I think" and the later "could have" (no more valid than 'might not').

McGrath wasn't finished. He had a moment of lucidity when he acknowledged that there's no evidence climate change is affecting El Niño, but he quickly got a grip and found a way to leave listeners quaking in their boots at the prospect of a hotter year next year - so "scientists say":

The effects depend on where you are in the globe. As mentioned, a weaker monsoon in India but for the UK the prediction is for more rain in a wetter, stormier autumn. El Niño is a naturally occurring event and there's no clear evidence that climate change is making it stronger but it's arriving in an already warmer world and that, scientists say, is what will sharpen its impacts. But all the extra heat that's set to release from the ocean into the atmosphere, next year is likely to be the hottest ever recorded.

Even if the predictions turn out to be true, McGrath showed no interest in what we might do about it. The story seemed purely concerned with the prospect of doom.

The bulletin continued with a piece by the BBC's Climate Editor, Justin Rowlatt, about how "unusual" the current El Niño is. He harked back to the last extreme El Niño event in 1877 but darkly reminded listeners that the world is now 1.4 degrees warmer than in "pre-industrial times", an era the parameters of which he did not bother to specify, presumably because 'pre-industrial times' is simply the next vague block of time always wheeled out before 'living memory'. As it happens, just as a for instance, between 250 BC and AD 400 Roman Europe was around 1-2 degrees warmer than the 20th Century.

In the Roman world, and almost anywhere else in antiquity, anything that seemed deviant was recorded and scrutinised, whether it involved a meteor falling from the sky, a talking cow, a swarm of bees, a maidservant giving birth to a boy with only one hand or anything else that looked or sounded peculiar. By such signs, promising or ominous, the Romans ruled their lives. The statesman Cicero wondered whether the superstitious observations and the attention paid to omens and their interpretation amounted to self-induced imprisonment. This mentality has endured into modern times.

As ever, the whole El Niño news item really amounted to nothing but speculation and glossed over the fact that since time immemorial human beings have had to cope with extreme weather events and climate change of all types and hues.

When modern scientists bolster their claims with terms like 'I think', 'could be' and 'anything we've seen in living memory', and useful-idiot journalists substantiate their stories with 'scientists say', I'm not sure what the difference is between now and the ancient world.

One thing is certain: these terms ain't science, but perhaps it takes a non-scientist to notice. Whatever happens next year is beyond our control, so when and if it does, we'll just have to cope with it.

Appropriately enough for such pap, by Saturday August 22nd the story had disappeared from the bulletins, gone with the wind, though no doubt it'll be back like a bad penny on the next slow news day.

"Science requires an almost complete openness to all ideas. On the other hand, it requires the most rigorous and uncompromising scepticism."

- Carl Sagan, in 'Wonder and Scepticism', Skeptical Inquirer (vol. 19, no. 1), 1995

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/27/2026 - 05:00