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US-Canada Trade War Threatens Electricity Imports, Prices
By Robert Walton of UtilityDive
An escalating trade war between the United States and Canada is once again threatening to ensnare the electric power sector at a time when consumers are already stretched thin.
Canada is expected to announce retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods Tuesday after President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on about $20 billion in Canadian goods went into effect over the weekend, with threats of more on the way.
On Monday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford told the Associated Press that “everything is on the table,” including halting the province’s critical minerals and electricity exports entirely. The BBC reported Ford said he and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney discussed a 25% tariff on electricity to the U.S.
In 2025, amid a previous trade dispute, Ontario enacted a 25% tariff on power exports to the U.S. The two sides eased tensions shortly thereafter, and the tariff was eliminated a day after taking effect.
ISO New England, in a statement to Utility Dive, said that if Canada opted to reduce or eliminate electricity trade, it “would not anticipate reliability issues tied to reduced imports, at least under typical weather conditions.”
Under extreme temperatures, however, supplies in New England “could become tight, but that would hinge on many factors that are difficult to project,” the grid operator added.
“It’s also important to note that power flows both ways between the New England and our Canadian neighbors these days,” it continued. “In the event Canadian provinces reduce (or entirely cut) the amount of electricity they are sending to New England, we would expect the impact to largely be financial, in the form of higher wholesale market prices. We would also anticipate emissions in the region increasing.”
The U.S. Energy Information Administration, earlier this month, highlighted the growing value of electricity and natural gas trade between the two countries.
“The value of electricity trade between the United States and Canada totaled $3.2 billion in 2025, 67% of which was electricity imported from Canada into the United States,” EIA analysts noted. Electricity trade between the two countries “is relatively small compared to trade in other energy sources.”
The two countries’ electricity sectors are more intertwined today, however. In June, North America’s longest fully-buried transmission line began delivering Canadian hydropower to New York City. The $6-billion Champlain-Hudson Power Express is expected to meet up to 20% of the city’s electric needs.
The New York ISO is in “close and regular contact with Hydro Quebec and Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator,” Kevin Lanahan, senior vice president of external affairs and corporate communications for the grid operator, said in a statement to Utility Dive.
“The NYISO anticipates having adequate supplies to meet expected demand on the system,” Lanahan said.
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Oil Dumps As Iran, Oman Push To Reopen Hormuz; Satellite Image Shows Gulf Producers Ramping Up
Brent crude futures dropped for a third session as Iran and Oman advanced plans for a temporary maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent tumbled to $85 a barrel early Wednesday, down more than 9% for the week, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $80. Crude remains up more than 41% this year following the US-Iran conflict and ongoing disruptions at the Hormuz chokepoint.
Earlier, Oman's state news agency reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi discussed an "interim framework" establishing a temporary joint shipping corridor.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said both countries agreed on a temporary route and intend to negotiate a permanent corridor within 30 to 60 days, according to Tasnim. No timeline has been given for when the temporary deal to reopen the critical waterway would begin.
Talk of an interim deal comes as oil loadings from Iraq's Persian Gulf export terminals surged at the beginning of the week, offering one of the clearest signals yet that regional Gulf producers expect Hormuz tensions to dissipate.
Satellite imagery showed seven tankers collecting Iraqi cargoes, with a combined carrying capacity of roughly 13 million barrels, according to Bloomberg.
Maritime research firm TankerTrackers also reported on X, saying, "A busy day in the Gulf of Oman, where there are at least fifteen sets of STS transfer sessions taking place. We count 25 million barrels of crude oil; plus some refined products. The oil originates from almost every country in the region, minus Iran."
A busy day in the Gulf of Oman, where there are at least fifteen sets of STS transfer sessions taking place. We count 25 million barrels of crude oil; plus some refined products. The oil originates from almost every country in the region, minus Iran.#OOTT #IranWar #Tankers pic.twitter.com/TAba26mJiW
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) August 25, 2026"It seems crude is now beginning to price in a sooner rather than later peace deal," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities, who Bloomberg quoted.
Kissler noted, "With some oil still getting through the strait, Iran and the US are more likely to be in a newer state of de-escalation as both sides are looking for an off-ramp."
By now, readers know that the energy crisis is not necessarily about crude, but rather refined products, as diesel crack spreads in the US topped $100 a barrel. The good news is that, by midweek, the spread was trading around $88.
Related:
Last week, veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie detailed on X that the next commodities bull market was poised for another leg higher (read note).
The latest developments in the Gulf are promising signals, but an interim framework should not be mistaken for a durable normalization of regional tanker transits through the maritime chokepoint. Previous de-escalation efforts have repeatedly broken down, often returning the region to drone attacks on tankers and short-lived military tit-for-tat bombing campaigns. Until a permanent and enforceable shipping deal is set in stone, the Hormuz risk premium is likely to remain embedded across crude and refined-product markets.
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Zelensky Continues To Oppose Wartime Democracy Amidst Escalated Election Demands
Authored by John Weeks via Antiwar.com,
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is facing mounting pressure to hold elections. The Ukrainian leader was elected to a five-year term in 2019, which expired in May 2024.
Last week, Ukraine's former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov publicly called for elections, breaking what has been characterized as a "wartime taboo" within the nation's elite. He continued to demand elections over the weekend and also directly accused the Defense Ministry of corruption.
Fedorov is not the first high-profile Ukrainian figure to call for elections. Back in 2024, Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko denounced Zelensky and called him an "autocrat" for refusing to hold elections. But Fedorov is the first figure to have served within the upper echelons of the national government to publicly endorse the restoration of democracy.
On Sunday, Zelensky released comments slamming Fedorov's recommendation as a threat to Ukrainian national security. "I believe that if we want to destroy the country, then during such a war we can move in the selection of elections," Zelensky said.
While Zelensky has portrayed wartime elections as an existential threat to all of Ukraine, he also said he would be open to elections if the nation's allies secured "specific conditions" that would allow all military personnel and displaced civilians, millions of people, to participate. This pledge undid the myth that Ukraine is forbidden to hold wartime elections by its own constitution under material law. It is also such an unlikely scenario; Zelensky appears open to democracy while safely shielded from it. If elections were held, he would lose.
The challenge from Fedorov is significant because the 35-year-old was the youngest minister of defense in Ukraine's history, and his firing last month triggered protests throughout the country. Despite having no military experience, the former tech entrepreneur was viewed as revolutionizing Ukraine's drone warfare. He only served for a few months before a rift with Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's armed forces at the time, prompted Zelensky to fire him.
After protests broke out following Fedorov's sacking, Zelensky tried to placate the people by firing Syrskyi as well. This has not turned down the temperature, as protestors want Fedorov reinstated.
The anger is understandable. Zelensky and his administration are keeping the nation at war, and there is no end in sight. The war has been the justification for martial law, and the martial law has been the justification for the temporary, indefinite suspension of democracy.
Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 06:30