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Zero Rss

Good Faith Vs Bad Faith

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Good Faith Vs Bad Faith

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Clusterfuck Nation,

"In conditions of mass democracy, the soft and the infantilising will be preferred over the hard and the necessary again and again."

- Eugyppius on X

Clusterfuck Nation never sleeps, even while everybody else lays aside their labors. Later today we'll light up the ceremonial grill, but for now it's onto the tribulations of this dolorous moment in history.

It was just such a sparkling September morning twenty-five years ago when those hijacked airliners knifed into the World Trade Center towers (plus the Pentagon + a field outside Shanksville, PA). Despite all the forensic debate since then, I go with the original explanation that four teams of jihadi maniacs did the 9/11 deed. And also, yet, despite all the official defenses mounted since then - the Patriot Act, etc. - here we are allowing a massive Islamic infiltration and even takeover of many places in America, proving, at least, that history is trickster.

After the trauma of 9/11, you can't deny our country went off the rails psychologically, along with the rest of Western Civ, as if its immune system broke down and the body politic admitted all kinds of malevolent parasites into itself. They have induced disease in most of society's organs - our institutions - the main political parties, the news media, the government agencies, the foundations, the schools, the arts & letters. The West's collective brain got badly damaged in the process.

The disease is identifiable, though some of its mechanisms remain mysterious. The disease is called bad faith: acting or speaking falsely, and knowingly so. Pretending one thing as a cover for meaning something else, such as hollering about "justice" when you really mean vengeance; "inclusion" when you mean to cancel others out of careers and livelihoods; "diversity" when you won't tolerate disagreement; "democracy" when you just want to push everybody else around.

The forces behind all this give off an odor of the occult. You can perhaps name and locate some of the engines driving it - the "Globalists," the Marxists, the London banks, the EU, the WEF, the São Paulo Forum, the CCP - but their motives remain obscure. Angela Merkel has stated plainly why she allowed the mass immigration of the Third World into Germany (and thereby into all Europe due to the Schengen agreement that erased the EU nations' borders): "to counter right-wing extremism," she said. That sounds pretty clear, but it also seems quite crazy. And why on earth does Ursula von der Leyen do everything possible to keep that going? Have the migrants not sufficiently demonstrated their antipathy to Western society? How many rapes, knifings, beheadings, café massacres, and Christmas Village drive-throughs does it take?

It's also hard to fathom how the London bankers (whoever they are?) have any sympathy with the Marxist revolutionaries who want to end the concept of private property and the instrumentalities of money that go with it. Or how the Rockefeller and Ford Foundations became so enamored of socialism. Or why the CIA seems bent on betraying the American common good. Or how come the League of Women Voters stridently opposes common sense election reform.

The race hustle is more comprehensible. It operates within a permission-structure built on the agonizing differential between success and failure.

It's just plain extortion: our failure is your fault, so pay up. And meanwhile, thanks for no-bail-and-no-jail, and for permission to shoplift, rape, murder, loot, and riot when we feel like it. (And cry harder about it.) It's an obvious sado-masochistic setup.

The gender game gets more complicated, but it also comes out of a permission-structure based on success / failure, aggravated by a mutual shortage of marriageable males and females forced to compensate for any combination of bad luck and bad choices that lead to failure in life.

But that dynamic has been neatly hijacked by groups seeking to create as much social chaos as possible. Why else would the Democratic Party get so avid for drag queen story hours in the early school grades? Is it not obvious that this isn't really comedy, as claimed? Rather, it's the presentation of women as monsters. Have you ever stopped to wonder how many of the kids watching these exhibitions are actually terrified by the disturbed adult males acting-out in their faces?

And now, the gender lunacy has climaxed - in Massachusetts, arguably the craziest US state - where mobs of deranged women chant and blubber in sympathy outside the courthouse where a mother who strangled her three kids just got off the hook.

The kids were unfairly cluttering up Lindsey's life, you understand. . . .If anything is an apt tipping point for a society to go one way or another, there it is.

Twenty-five years of being insane is enough.

It's not making life easier for anybody. This is the meaning of Trump. He is aiming to fix as much of this as possible. That it's his fate to play this role is further evidence that history is a trickster. It's easy to make fun of him and his mannerisms; harder to weigh who and what he is fighting against - and what the stakes are. You might just boil it down to a battle between good faith and bad faith, of meaning business and playing games. The time for meaning business is at hand, and the time for playing dishonest games is over. Happy Labor Day and get ready for the action that's about to come at you as we turn this corner into fall, for real.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 16:20
Tyler Durden

When Will There Be An 'Alternative For Canada'?

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
When Will There Be An 'Alternative For Canada'?

Authored by Mark E. Jeftovic via Bombthrower,

On Sunday, Germany's Alternative für Deutschland won Saxony-Anhalt, which shouldn't really surprise anyone, but is being treated by the media like some kind of Black Swan event, blindsiding us all.

The AfD won 43.8% of the vote, more than doubling its result from five years ago and crushing Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU, which came in at 17.2%. Apparently, if it wasn't for mail-in voting they would have had a majority.

As it stands, they're within three seats of an outright majority (maybe they can follow the Liberal Party of Canada playbook and induce a few other MPs to defect).

Naturally, practically every headline describing the result contains some variation of the words "far right".

We've been through this before.

A few years ago I wrote "What Does 'Far Right' Even Mean Anymore?" and came up with a working definition:

"Far right" is basically anything that contests the Establishment narrative.

That definition has held up remarkably well.

Because if you listen to the political establishment and its media organs, there are basically only two possible views around the problems facing Western countries.

The first is to double-down on what we've been already doing, irrespective of hard data showing that the policies of the last decade have made Canada the poorest performing country in the entirety of OECD nations, not to mention that the track we're on will keep us there out until 2060...

On CNBC, Joe Kernen reminds Dom LeBlanc of some stark economic realities in Canada

"Minister LeBlanc, this is the last thing Canada needs. And I'm not sure whether you have a good feel for, for changes that need to be made in the economic approach of Canada."

"The OECD projects... pic.twitter.com/YEyKacDVrY

— cbcwatcher (@cbcwatcher) August 25, 2026

Here in Canada that means some variation on the policies we've pursued since 2015, many of them mirroring the European model: historically unprecedented immigration volumes, an ever-expanding temporary resident population, increasingly cumbersome restraints on energy and resource development, and a kind of managed degrowth dressed up as environmental stewardship.

Door #2 is that anyone who has an issue with this is a "far-right extremist", or more recently "a maple-MAGA".

There is apparently no middle ground.

Stipulate that immigration is a overall a good thing but that the volume and calibre of the migrants matters? Far right.

Suggest that a country has both the right and obligation to decide who gets to live there and optimize for higher quality immigrants? Far right.

Expect that people who immigrate to this country should integrate into it, obey its laws and be a net contributor economically, instead of a perpetual drain?

Careful now. You don't want to sound like you're "noticing things".

Which raises an interesting question after yesterday's result in Germany:

When will there be an Alternative for Canada?

How Canada's immigration system used to work

Canada was the first country in the world to adopt a merit-based immigration system, in 1967.

The underlying concept was remarkably simple: select for people who were likely to succeed here.

Education. Language. Skilled work experience. Age. Adaptability. Ability to support yourself.

There were family reunification and humanitarian streams alongside it, of course, but the economic immigration system was unapologetically selective and we unabashedly skimmed the cream across all ethnicities, countries, races and religions.

For awhile there, we had it: The Golden Age of Multi-Culturalism - and Canada was, in fact, a classically liberal paradise. For a while.

This is the system under which my parents, my wife, her mother-in-law, our daughter and my entire extended family came to Canada.

All immigrants. Most of them non-white.

It works fine.

For decades we brought in skilled, educated and motivated people from everywhere. While they retained homages to their cultures and religions, they also worked hard, obeyed the law, they opened businesses, raised families, integrated into Canadian society and, over a generation or two, became part of our "Canadian Mosaic".

What Changed

That basic architecture continued for decades and eventually evolved into Express Entry, which was launched under the Harper government in January 2015. Express Entry actually made the selection process more competitive, ranking eligible candidates against one another instead of simply processing qualified applicants in chronological order.

What changed after 2015 wasn't that Canada suddenly abolished the points system, but the Trudeau Liberals made changes to the volume and the pathways.

Permanent immigration targets climbed from roughly 250,000 to 280,000 annually during the Harper years to nearly half-a-million annually by 2024. At the same time, international students, temporary workers and other temporary residents expanded far faster (places like Conestoga College became veritable "diploma factories").

And somewhere along the way, "temporary foreign worker" stopped conjuring up an image of an agricultural worker filling a seasonal shortage and started meaning practically everybody behind the counter at Tim Hortons.

The Temporary Foreign Worker Program was never designed as a mass pipeline for cashiers and fry cooks, but successive rule changes, plus a much larger companion program that does not require a labour-market test, made low-wage service jobs a normal use of temporary labour.

What makes it worse?

As many of those living in the GTA area are aware: home invasions are up, car thefts are up, assaults are up, so is firebombing Christian churches and anti-Semitic violence. The streets of Canada's major cities are routinely taken over by Islamic and far-left extremists who openly hate this country and pine for it's downfall...

Islamist in Canada: "I don't consider myself Canadian, Canada is a racist colonialist project like Israel; they will be destroyed within 25 years."

Canada is falling. pic.twitter.com/JakiJUTx3h

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) September 5, 2026

(One wonders, why is she here then?)

And when non-citizens commit crimes, get caught, get released again, commit more crimes, and eventually, finally are convicted...

The final catalyst: The immigration discount on criminal sentencing

This may ultimately be the issue that causes the pot to boil over.

Canadian citizens watched citizens getting tackled by cops grocery stores for not wearing masks, people got tazed at outdoor hockey rinks. The federal government imposed martial law and seized your bank accounts for donating to the Freedom Convoy.

And now, they open the news and encounter an endless procession of home invasions, carjackings, sexual assaults, human trafficking cases and violent crimes where some variation of the same phrase seems to invariably appear:

"The accused was already out on release for previous unrelated charges."

...and they end up being released again, and people can't help but notice, that many such cases turn out to be, "Brampton men" (IYKYK).

17 Accused in Peel Police Extortion Network Investigation Were Not Canadian Citizens

Peel Regional Police say 17 men who are not Canadian citizens have been arrested in connection with an alleged international criminal network known as "For Brothers," accused of targeting... pic.twitter.com/h6IPYBe4BH

— Toronto Crime Watch (@CrimewatchTO) May 25, 2026

This has become common enough that Ottawa has finally had to respond. This year the federal government enacted more than 80 changes to Canada's bail and sentencing laws, specifically targeting repeat violent offenders, home invasions, human trafficking, auto theft and accused persons carrying numerous or serious outstanding charges.

So the problem wasn't some imaginary, shared hallucination that came out of a far-right echo chamber.

More corrosive still is the perception that non-citizens who commit crimes have been receiving so-called "immigration discounts" precisely because they are non-citizens and the Supreme Court, in R. v. Pham held that judges may consider the immigration consequences of a sentence.

This has lead to examples such as:

  • A Kitchener man who battered his girlfriend was given a conditional discharge to avoid deportation to India
  • An Ontario court of appeal reduced the sentence of a man convicted of assault and multiple probation violations by one day in order to prevent a "potentially devastating immigration consequence". The Crown did not object.
  • A foreign resident on a work permit who was working as a Bell Technician who exposed himself to a woman in who's apartment he was servicing was granted no jail time because doing so would result in deportation. The man feels "stigmatized" and laments that he had to leave the area.
  • Finally, this guy, who was caught in a Peel Regional Police sting operation, because he thought he was soliciting sex from a 15 year-old minor. He was convicted, then argued that his immigration status should not be impacted by his sentencing because he still wants to bring his wife to Canada (who presumably still wants to be with him, for some reason). Justice Paul O'Marra concurred,

    "A conviction could lead to severe collateral consequences, such as jeopardizing his immigration status, delaying his citizenship, and preventing him from sponsoring his wife, which would likely result in their separation"

Uh, yeah, no shit. That a conviction could lead to severe collateral consequences is the entire point of having a legal system.

The far-right extremist in me can't help but notice, can't restrain myself from wondering out loud...

Do we really want anybody here who can't govern themselves accordingly before they even become a citizen?

Shouldn't this be the most obvious filter available?

By all means, come to Canada, build a better life, work hard and follow the fucking rules.

Otherwise, don't come, or get deported.

Too simple.

But try explaining the optics of that to a Canadian citizen who has just watched the state demonstrate zero reluctance to use its full powers against him and tell him that noticing the discrepancy makes him "literally Hitler".

At what point does "far right" simply mean "normal"?

One of the more revealing moments in CNN's coverage ahead of yesterday's German election came when correspondent Fred Pleitgen described the AfD's supposedly radical immigration platform.

'The AfD openly calls for mass deportation of undocumented foreigners and foreigners who have committed crimes"

The CNN dude says "mass deportation of foreigners who have committed crimes" like it's a bad thing. https://t.co/zvFjiKEMpV

— Mark E. Jeftovic (@jeftovic) September 6, 2026

Narrator's note: "undocumented foreigner" is someone who is there illegally.

When a person enters your country as a guest, commits a serious crime against somebody who lives there, they should, as a consequence, lose the privilege of remaining.

Holding this opinion will get you branded "far-right" extremist.

I suspect a fairly large percentage of Canadians would consider it common sense.

Living in Canada should be considered a privilege for non-citizens, and citizenship should mean something. It should be earned through some combination of productivity, commitment, integration and time.

None of this has anything to do with race, religion, ethnicity, gender or sexual preference.

In fact, Canada's old system demonstrated precisely how unnecessary those criteria are.

This is where the "far-right" branding becomes dangerous

The problem with reflexively branding every objection to the current system as "far right" isn't simply that the label eventually becomes meaningless.

There is a much worse consequence.

For starters, you eliminate the legitimate middle.

People who simply say "immigration levels are too high" get called racists.

People who say temporary workers shouldn't displace Canadian teenagers from entry-level jobs are deemed xenophobes.

People who think convicted non-citizen criminals should be deported are branded as extremists.

Eventually some of those people stop caring what you call them.

That's when some truly unhinged egregores can arise.

I've been warning about this phenomenon for years, including in my book, Unassailable: when legitimate grievances are declared impermissible, they don't just go away.

They go underground, they tend to mutate, and they resurface as increased polarization, siege mentality and, eventually, real extremism.

We're already seeing the emergence Canadian groups openly espousing ideas that really are extreme, including ethnic cleansing, as though removing entire populations based on their skin-colour is the only remaining solution to problems the political system refuses to confront honestly.

Somewhere there has to be a rational distinction between "we need to go back to merit-based immigration, at numbers we can assimilate" and whatever the fuck this is. pic.twitter.com/EdJ3J6yFSW

— Mark E. Jeftovic (@jeftovic) September 1, 2026

As I lamented in my earlier "Canada Was A Liberal Paradise" piece, racism in Canada was for the most part, a thing of the past.

It was over.

Aside from the fringes and the individual Archie Bunker types, Canada was, for a brief, bygone age, a largely colour-blind meritocracy.

Then we made race central to practically everything again: post-nationalism, colonialism. Settlers on stolen land - this isn't coffee house Marxism by purple haired they/them's from affluent families anymore - it's literally baked into the curriculum, it's being taught in our schools and our universities by an academia overrun with Fabians and Malthusians.

Meanwhile, any criticism of immigration policy is synonymous with racial animus.

Is it any wonder that there are populist backlashes occurring in Germany, Ceuta, France, the UK?

The Alternative for Canada is not what you think.

I'm not here to tell you that some manner of nationalist, populist party is going to save Canada - I don't even think the AfD or any of these reaction movements will "save" their own respective countries.

The reason is that I think this is part of a much wider issue: the collapse of the global debt-based monetary system and a Fourth Turning-style destruction of our Industrial Age institutions. The dysfunction we see here in Canada and abroad isn't the result of the wrong political party or bad policy tracks. Those are symptoms of something much larger.

Populations vote in the wrong political parties, who embark on horrifically bad policy tracks, because there is no workable or tenable solutions to the current problems. Only emergent, alternative systems that are better suited to operating in world's network-shaped topology and hyper-accelerating pace will persevere, and a big part of that is just staying out of the blast radius of the failing machinery (much more on this in my new book, The Blueprint: Survive and Thrive in an Overclocked Timeline - my premium membership already has access to it)

However intractable the problems of building a global financial system atop debt-based money, the situation is even more acute here in Canada, where the older generations still believe everything the CBC tells them, and the younger ones are indoctrinated to hate this country from pre-school onward.

In other words, Canada is cooked, and the "Alternative for Canada" is not having a different party in power, it isn't having some establishment outsider like Shopify CEO Tobias Lütke entering politics (although that would be refreshing), or a firebrand like Kevin O'Leary taking over the CPC (which also would be awesome).

Nor is it becoming "the 51st State" or merging with the US (although anybody who's ever read Dianne Francis' book on the topic would find themselves agreeing with a lot of it. It was written before the rise of Trump and TDS infected the majority of the Canadian "Elbows Up" contingent).

For our cousins out in Alberta, it's not even separation.

All of these things might forestall the inevitable, add a decade or two onto the long descent of The Industrial Age - but the real solution in an era where politics is just institutionalized grift and the masses are intentionally dumbing themselves down, the way forward is through radical personal sovereignty, critical thinking skills, financial independence, and optionality. Lots and lots of optionality.

The Alternative for Canada is you.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 15:40
Tyler Durden

New York Officials Lied About Air Quality After 9/11, New Documents Show

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
New York Officials Lied About Air Quality After 9/11, New Documents Show

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

New York City has agreed to release new documents showing that officials lied about the air quality in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center.

The more than 170,000 pages of documents are being released by NYC in response to the transparency organization 9/11 Health Watch, which had sued to force their disclosure.

According to the New York Times, the documents reveal that higher-than-acceptable levels of asbestos and other contaminants were in the dust and air in other parts of Lower Manhattan after Sept. 11.

"An audit from November 2001, prepared by a private firm and submitted to the federal E.P.A. based on data collected by New York City and state agencies, showed other troubling findings," the Times reported Monday.

"That audit demonstrated that air concentration of the carcinogen benzene was still spiking near the towers' footprint, and that the concentration of asbestos in the air at the Fresh Kills landfill on Staten Island had increased after the attacks."

Despite having information about the poor air quality, government officials, including then-EPA administrator Christine Todd Whitman, said the air around ground zero was safe to breathe.

Whitman has since apologized for her misrepresentations.

The Times warned that the disclosures could reopen NYC to new litigation at a time when New Yorkers who were in the city at the time are dying of lung and blood cancers, as well as heart and respiratory diseases.

Denise Verzi, whose husband, Michael, was a firefighter who suffered from lymphoma after responding to the attack, criticized the city for its lack of transparency.

"I don't understand hiding it to begin with," Verzi told the Times. "That was horrific. But 25 years in, there's people that are still getting sick."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 15:20
Tyler Durden

Mamdani Turns City Hall Into A Socialist Union-Organizing-Machine

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Mamdani Turns City Hall Into A Socialist Union-Organizing-Machine

New York City has established a government office to assist worker in unionizing, following an executive order announced by Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Labor Day. The Mayor’s Office of Worker Power aims to help workers “get informed, connected and organized” to facilitate union formation. City Hall has not yet released information on the office’s budget or staffing levels, both of which are important considerations when creating a new government entity.

 "Every day, working New Yorkers show up, do their jobs, and keep this city running. Too often, they have no say in the conditions they work under," Mamdani said in a statement.

"The Mayor's Office of Worker Power will make sure workers have a seat at the table before exploitation becomes a crisis and violations become routine. We're connecting workers to their rights, to each other and to the organizations ready to stand with them. Because when workers have power, this city works better for everyone."

The office's stated functions include holding hearings on workplace issues, drafting policy proposals based on employee testimony, distributing information about workers’ rights, and connecting employees with outside groups equipped to help them organize.

Tony Perlstein, a former dockworker, union organizer, and deputy director of communications for the Center for Popular Democracy, will run the office. He will report to Deputy Mayor for Economic Justice Julie Su.

“This office allows us to get ahead of exploitation instead of simply responding to it," Su said in a statement.

"By building relationships with workers, unions and worker centers, we can understand what is happening on the ground and act before problems become crises."

The City Reporter, which broke the story, said the office follows the blueprint of the Emergency Workplace Organizing Committee, a joint project of the Democratic Socialists of America and United Electrical Workers. 

Critics have zeroed in on a provision in the executive order that goes well beyond hearings and pamphlets. It directs city agencies, including the Department of Consumer and Worker Protection, the Taxi and Limousine Commission, and the Commission on Human Rights, to develop "directed investigation procedures" for workplace violations. These agencies used to wait for a complaint before opening a case. Under the new order, they can target businesses that employ large numbers of low-wage workers, carry a documented history of labor violations, or show other signs the city considers evidence of poor compliance, whether or not anyone has filed a complaint against them.

And that has plenty of people concerned.

 "It's remarkable that the Mamdani administration conflates being forced to pay a union with being protected from exploitation," Manhattan Institute fellow Ken Girardin said. "The city shouldn't be putting its thumb on the scale to squeeze more dues out of workers."

Ashley Ranslow, New York State director for the National Federation of Independent Businesses, called the office "deeply concerning.” 

"Federal laws already protect workers rights to organize," Ranslow said.

Her larger worry concerns what proactive enforcement looks like in practice: small businesses facing scrutiny, she said, "even if there are no complaints filed against them."

Ranslow argued City Hall has inserted itself into a relationship that was never its business. "City government should not be interfering with a process that is between employees and the employer," she said. "Small businesses should be supported, especially in a place like New York City where it's unaffordable to keep the doors open and lights on, instead of having the deck stacked against them."

A recent CUNY report has discovered that the level of unionization in the city is more than twice the national average, revealing the office to be nothing more than a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist, a structure designed to create grievances even though the labor market has already clearly shifted in favor of organized labor.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 14:40
Tyler Durden

Israel Shutters UK Consulate For Leading New European Sanctions Against West Bank Settlers

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Israel Shutters UK Consulate For Leading New European Sanctions Against West Bank Settlers

The UK is a lead nation among a dozen countries that jointly announced Tuesday they are imposing sanctions on trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

The additional nations are Ireland, Denmark, Finland, France, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Sweden. UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband informed parliament about the new measure, saying "Today I announce that the official view of the British government is that the occupation [of the West Bank] is unlawful."

AFP via Getty Images

"The government believes the unlawfulness of the occupation should be reflected in the economic relationships we choose to have with the occupied territories," he added.

Miliband declared that Israeli "terrorists" are conducting ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, which follows a series of deadly incidents involving fanatical settlers widely reported over the last weeks and months. He sought to demonstrate that the sanctions action would underscore that "Britain is not silent in the face of deep injustice and nor is it powerless."

Israel's response was almost immediate, with Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar quickly announcing the closure of the UK consulate in Jerusalem. Saar blasted Miliband for what he's calling "outrageous lies" and charged that London was "systematically working against the state of Israel."

While the United States is not expected to sign on to this European initiative, or voice political support for it, Washington does have sanctions on some individual Jewish settler leaders and groups. However, various international bodies and rights groups have long seen such prior US designations as a positive, but largely symbolic step.

According to an outline of Miliband's words before parliament, he listed the following new legal actions impacting Israeli West Bank settlements and associated entities:

  • An import ban on goods from illegal settlements in the occupied territories.
  • A comprehensive sanctions regime against providing services such as construction or financing for Israeli settlements.
  • A ban on the advertising in the UK of illegal settlement properties.
  • Personal sanctions against key individuals accused of promoting settler violence.
  • A new ban for arms licenses and other exports that “materially contribute to the occupation”.

Another key part of Israel's retaliation has been to list a dozen British election officials who will now be barred from entering the country. 

Video shows Israeli "settlers" entering Palestinian property in Turmus Ayya during U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee’s visit to meet an American citizen.

Huckabee filmed the incident.pic.twitter.com/r3K8WTae18

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 6, 2026

According to Israeli media:

The list includes 11 members of parliament... and a lawyer, Fahad Ansari, who has represented Hamas’s political wing in court in the UK as it attempts to remove itself from the list of proscribed terrorist organizations.

Responding to the Foreign Ministry’s announcement, Ansari says on X that he is “neither British nor an MP but do take this as a badge of honour.”

The banned MPs are listed as follows:

  1. Jeremy Corbyn, Your Party co-founder
  2. Zarah Sultana, Your Party co-founder
  3. Naz Shah, Labour Party
  4. Diane Abbot, Labour Party
  5. John McDonnell, Labour Party
  6. Richard Burgon, Labour Party
  7. Hannah Spencer, Green Party
  8. Carla Denyer, Green Party
  9. Sian Berry, Green Party
  10. Ellie Chowns, Green Party
  11. Adrian Ramsay, Green Party

All of this is likely going to ratchet the pressure on the US Embassy and the State Department. Last week, even US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee last week called out Israeli settler violence in the West Bank an "act of terror."

The U.S. has condemned the siege of Palestinian homes in the West Bank by Israeli settlers, who have cut off water, electricity and essential supplies to residents.

U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee on Thursday called the settlers’ actions an “act of terror,” adding to… pic.twitter.com/pOrwgURCHZ

— PBS News (@NewsHour) August 14, 2026

It's unprecedented and unexpected that a self-identified outspoken Zionist and Evangelical pastor like Huckabee would make such an announcement.

He's lately been touring some West Bank areas, describing this as on behalf of US citizens "who live in Turmus Ayya and other communities across this region" who are "disturbed by people who have created extraordinary challenges that are unfair and illegal."

Also, while most Americans might tend to assume that the entirety of the West Bank is Muslim, it has also long had an ancient and significant minority of Christians, chiefly Palestinian Orthodox Christians.

The Christian town of Taybeh has been under repeat attack all summer...

Israeli settlers have attacked the historic Christian village of Taybeh in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday, setting fields on fire and targeting Palestinian homes.

Local sources reported that the settlers opened fire on houses and threw Molotov cocktails pic.twitter.com/h3Jouvumga

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) June 10, 2026

The last all-Christian West Bank town of Taybeh has also this summer come under repeat attack by Jewish settlers. The Israeli government itself has had to send IDF troops to protect the enclave from settler attacks. Perhaps such instances have started to get the attention of US officials, but it's also likely that they will stop at just paying lip service to the issue.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 14:20
Tyler Durden

More Investing Myths Dismantled

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
More Investing Myths Dismantled

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

“Investing Myths Dismantled” is chapter 4 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.”

Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor

Chapter 2: Investor Psychology

Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter

Chapter 3 of this series, linked above, ended with a simple question. If the math so plainly says avoid big losses, respect valuations, and mind your timing, why does so much of the industry preach the opposite? Why are you told to stay fully invested no matter what, that you cannot beat the index, so do not try, that the great investors are magic and cannot be copied, and that the only thing worth worrying about is fees?

The reason is that those messages are comfortable, and comfort sells. Each one is an investing myth that sounds like wisdom and quietly talks you out of managing your own money. In this article, we take three of the biggest ones and run them through the same unforgiving logic we used on the math. These articles are not meant to scare you out of stocks, but rather to hand you back the judgment the myths are designed to take away.

Investing Myth One: You Have To Beat The Market

From your first day as an investor, you are handed a scoreboard. The S&P 500 index. If you beat it, you win; but if you trail it, for any one of a million different reasons, you lose. Wall Street loves this scoreboard because a scoreboard keeps you comparing, and comparing keeps you moving your money, chasing whichever fund topped the index last year.

Perhaps it is inevitable that, as social animals, we have an urge to compare ourselves with one another. Such is particularly the case since the rise of social media, where we are constantly bombarded by images of how well “everyone” else seems to be doing. Here is an example.

Assume your boss gave you a new Mercedes as a yearly bonus. You would be thrilled until you learned everyone in the office got two. Now you are upset because on a “relative” basis, you got less than everyone else. However, are you deprived on an absolute basis by getting a Mercedes?

Comparison-created unhappiness and insecurity are pervasive. Social media is full of images of people showing off their lavish lifestyles, giving you something to compare to. It is unsurprising that repeated studies show that social media users are terminally unhappy.

The flaw of human nature is that whatever we have is enough, until we see someone else who has more.

Therefore, it should be unsurprising that comparison in financial markets can lead to awful decisions, so investors have trouble being patient and letting whatever process they have work for them. Chasing that scoreboard does not just set you up for disappointment. It makes you behave badly. You lag the index for a year, so you fire your fund and chase last year’s winner, usually right before it reverts to the mean. You buy high and sell low on a permanent loop, all in the name of keeping up with a number.

But here is the part you may not know – the scoreboard you are comparing yourself to is rigged, and not in your favor.

“There are many reasons why you shouldn’t chase an index over time and why you see statistics such as ‘80% of all funds underperform the S&P 500’ in any given year. The impact of share buybacks, substitutions, lack of taxes, no trading costs, and replacement all contribute to the index’s outperformance over those investing real dollars who do not receive the same advantages. More importantly, any portfolio allocated differently than the benchmark to provide for lower volatility, income, or long-term financial planning and capital preservation will also underperform the index. Therefore, comparing your portfolio to the S&P 500 is inherently ‘apples to oranges’ and will always lead to disappointing outcomes.“ – Absolute vs Relative Returns

One of the most important points to consider is what “substitution” really means. The index you admire is survivorship bias sold as a product, and it quietly buries its dead. Every company that went bankrupt, got acquired, or simply fell out of favor is deleted from the record, so the smooth line climbing across the page is the winners’ bracket with all the losers erased. Your real portfolio never gets that “magic eraser.” You must live with your mistakes, and you pay to fix them, while the index just pretends its mistakes never happened.

So what should you measure against instead? The only benchmark that actually matters is your own goals. The rate of return your financial plan requires, at the lowest risk that gets you there. Your portfolio is specific to your life, so a thirty-year-old and a sixty-year-old should not own the same things, and neither should be graded against an index that has no age, no goals, and no end date.

Reaching for the index’s return means reaching for the index’s risk, and as we saw in the last article, higher returns demand an exponential increase in risk. That is a fine bargain at thirty and a potentially ruinous one at sixty. I dug into this in “Relative Returns or Absolute“ and again in “The 5 Reasons Benchmarking Works Against You“. 

The investing myth of comparing to a benchmark index is dangerous. The reality is that you cannot eat relative returns. Say the market falls 20% in a bad year and your portfolio falls 19%. You beat the index, so you should be happy about that. But you still lost nearly 20% of your portfolio. In real life, nobody has ever felt richer for losing slightly less than an index. The relative game feels like winning right up until the moment you actually have to spend the money.

It comes down to one honest question. What matters more, matching the index in a bull market, or protecting your capital in a bear market?

You cannot have both.

Critically, since you can replace lost money but never lost time, protecting capital is almost always the trade worth making.

Investing Myth Two: Just Invest Like Warren Buffett

The second investing myth wears a friendlier face. If investing is hard, just do what the greatest investor alive does. Buy good companies and hold them forever. You will even hear that Buffett himself says to just buy an index fund and never look at it again. It sounds like permission to stop thinking. It is also a caricature of the man, and following the caricature will hurt you.

Here is what Buffett actually does, and why you can’t replicate it. He is a value investor to the bone. He estimates what a business is truly worth and then refuses to buy until the price offers a wide margin of safety, a discount deep enough that he can be wrong and still not lose. Furthermore, he buys quality businesses with durable advantages, and he is famously willing to do nothing for years; when he cannot find value, he does not force it. He can sit on an enormous pile of cash and wait, sometimes for years, for the fat pitch. Most importantly, he sells. The buy-and-hold-anything-forever story is the opposite of a man who is ruthlessly disciplined about price.

Watch what he does with that cash, and you see the entire philosophy. His cash pile is not random, and it swells when the market is expensive and shrinks when it is cheap. He even has a favorite yardstick for measuring that, the total value of the stock market compared to the size of the economy, a ratio now known as the Buffett Indicator.

When the Buffett indicator runs hot, as I covered in a piece on that very gauge, he stops buying and waits. The greatest investor alive is the living opposite of “stay fully invested no matter what.” He calls cash oxygen, cheap and unexciting, and absolutely necessary, held precisely so he can act when everyone else is forced to sell. Sitting on your hands with dry powder is not a failure of nerve for Buffett. It is the strategy.

It is also important to notice what he is not doing. He is not buying the benchmark index. When Buffett does invest, specifically in the public securities side of the portfolio, Berkshire holds around 40 names, but the vast majority of its value is concentrated in just a handful of high-conviction bets. That is the opposite of spreading your money across five hundred companies by size and hoping it all works out. Buffett’s edge was never breadth; it was judgment, patience, and the discipline to concentrate only when the odds were overwhelmingly in his favor.

Then there is the part that the investing myth never mentions. Buffett is not even playing your game. He invests permanent capital that no client can yank at the wrong moment.

  • He has spent decades using cheap insurance float as leverage.
  • He buys whole companies and shapes how they are run.
  • His horizon is measured in decades, and he has no retirement date and no tuition bill coming due.

However, you have a finite life, a real deadline, and money that might be needed at any time. The gap between you and Buffett is not mostly talent. It is structural.

So no, you cannot be Warren Buffett; however, there is a part worth keeping, and it is the whole reason his name is worth invoking. You can copy his discipline, even if you can never copy his position.

  • Refuse to overpay.
  • Demand a margin of safety.
  • Hold cash when nothing is cheap and,
  • Treat that patience as a strategy, not a personal failing.
  • Sell when the reason you bought is gone.

Buffett himself says the most important quality in an investor is not intellect but temperament, which means the real Buffett lesson is not a stock list at all. It is everything we covered in the first two articles. The self-control to think like an owner and to do nothing when there is nothing worth doing.

Investing Myth Three: Passive Investing Always Wins

The reason this third investing myth is the most seductive is that, for a very long stretch, it has looked to be absolutely true. Just buy the index, keep costs low, and you beat almost everyone. Let’s be fair, low costs and staying out of your own way are genuinely powerful, exactly as we covered in the first two articles. But “passive always wins” hides a mechanism that quietly builds risk into the market, and understanding it changes how you think about that index fund.

The problem is that an index fund does not buy good companies; it typically just buys big ones. Because the S&P is weighted by size, every dollar that flows in gets pushed hardest into whatever is already the largest, regardless of price or quality. That creates a loop.

Follow the loop, and you see the problem. The biggest companies get bigger not because they earned it that year, but because they were already big and the flows had nowhere else to go. They come to dominate the index by default, not by merit. You can watch the machine at work in the numbers. The ten largest stocks have swollen to more than a third of the entire index, nearly double their share a decade ago. A tiny handful of names now sets the direction for nearly every retirement account in the country, whether the people who own them ever chose them or not.

And that hollows out the one thing you thought you were buying. Diversification. If you own an S&P index fund, a Nasdaq fund, and a technology ETF, you do not own three different things. You own the same handful of giant companies three times over. I laid this out in “Why Diversification Is Failing In The Age Of Passive Investing.” Your portfolio may look diversified, but in reality, it is a concentrated bet with much higher risks than you realize. Therefore, in a real crisis, the little diversification you have left tends to vanish, because correlations rush toward one and everything falls together at once.

There is a deeper problem hiding beneath this investing myth: “Passive money never asks what anything is worth.”

Passive investors simply buy in proportion to size. As an increasing share of the market moves this way, fewer participants remain to price companies on fundamentals. The market drifts away from being a weighing machine and toward being a pure momentum machine, where prices rise because money is flowing in, not because the underlying businesses have gotten any better.

The stocks most owned by passive funds become the most sensitive to those flows. As long as the market rises, passive flows come in. Those flows are consumed by the companies with the heaviest index weightings at the top. However, when it eventually falls, and it will, those same companies are dragged down the hardest and fastest. This is because the selling is mechanical and indiscriminate, hitting the crowded names in unison. I made this case in a piece on the fragility that passive flows create. Simply, a market that goes up together tends to come down together.

None of this means that index funds are evil or that you should never own one. There are real truths to the indexing story. For example, low cost is real, and for many investors, a broad fund is a perfectly reasonable core. However, that also means an index fund is not the safety blanket of diversification that the marketing brochure says it is. Yes, own an index fund if you choose, but own it with your eyes open.

Knowing what you actually hold and how concentrated it has quietly become is crucial. Critically, that is a very different thing from buying an index as a substitute for thinking.

Passive is not a free lunch. It is a bet that the flows never stop, but they always eventually do..

What All Three Myths Have In Common

Step back and look at the three together.

  • Beat the market.
  • Be like Buffett.
  • Just buy the index.

On the surface, they say different things. Underneath, they deliver the exact same instruction.

  • Stop thinking.
  • Hand your judgment to a scoreboard, a guru, or a formula, and
  • Just hold on, no matter what.

That message is comfortable, and it is enormously profitable for an industry that would rather you never question it.

But notice the thread running through every rebuttal. In each case, the answer was not a better guru or a cleverer index. It was always you, doing the work.

  • Measuring against your own goals instead of a scoreboard.
  • Copying Buffett’s discipline instead of his ticker symbols.
  • Owning an index fund with your eyes open instead of as a substitute for judgment.

Remember, it is your money. These are your goals, your risk, and your finite, unrecoverable time.

Outsourcing your judgment to a comfortable story, but it will not serve you well.

  • You do not have to beat anyone.
  • No one is asking you to be a legend.
  • And it is okay, in fact, you have an obligation to manage your own risk rather than pretend it does not exist.

The myths want you to be passive. The math wants you awake.

The Bottom Line

We have spent four articles clearing the ground. We learned to think like an investor rather than a speculator, to beat our own psychology and conditioning, to respect the hard math of losses, valuations, and timing, and now to see through the comforting myths that tell us to stop managing our money. That is a great deal of what NOT to do. It raises the obvious question. So what do you actually do instead?

In the final chapter on investing myths, we will provide you with the rules and guidelines to win the “long game” in investing. How to actually manage risk in a portfolio, the three practical ways to run one depending on who you are, and the timeless rules the greatest investors leave behind. We have torn down the myths. In the last piece, we built the thing that replaces them.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 14:00
Tyler Durden

Nuclear's Labor Day News Dump: Nine Reactors And An IPO

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Nuclear's Labor Day News Dump: Nine Reactors And An IPO

Across the holiday and into Tuesday, the nuclear sector delivered news of a potential eight-reactor construction MOU, pricing details for Holtec's IPO, and a closed federal loan to resurrect another shuttered American nuclear plant.

The biggest headline is out of South Korea.

Korean outlets reported that Seoul and Washington are discussing a framework to jointly pursue up to eight large reactors in the US, with a memorandum of understanding potentially getting signed as early as September 18. The discussions sit within Korea's previously announced $350 billion US investment package.

Which reactors are actually going to be built under the 8-reactor project is apparently still in discussion. Some outlets are reporting that Washington wants all eight to use Westinghouse's AP1000 design, while Seoul wants at least two Korean APR1400s included. MoneyToday says a possible six-AP1000, two-APR1400 configuration.

Korea is likely looking for more opportunities to show off its mature, and larger, grid-scale reactor design that it hopes to export to additional countries.

Korea JoongAng Daily put the proposal at $120 billion, while MoneyToday reported $130 billion.

Second, Holtec finally put a price range on its long-discussed IPO.

The company kicked off its IPO road show Tuesday morning proposing 50 million shares at $15 to $18 each for a target raise of up to $900 million in proceeds. As has been widely reported, the company is targeting a valuation just over $10 billion.

The company looks to launch under the ticker HNUC and could be a breath of fresh air for a nuclear IPO space that's been mostly plagued by pre-revenue disappointments. Multiple reactor developers have gone public over the past couple years through SPACs and IPOs, with some of them performing as miserably as -80% within weeks of commencing trading.

As we noted when Holtec first filed confidentially, the company brings decades of operating history in spent-fuel storage, decommissioning and equipment manufacturing. Its Palisades restart and SMR-300 program manage to add significant growth ambitions to that established industrial base.

Big news for nuclear energy in Iowa! https://t.co/D5QhskZv0B

EDF is financing the restart of the 615 MW Duane Arnold Energy Center, which will deliver reliable baseload power to the grid, boost grid resilience, and create thousands of construction & hundreds of operations jobs. pic.twitter.com/62QJvd4F1g

— Energy Dominance Financing (@DOE_EDF) September 8, 2026

Lastly, NextEra came out of the holiday with another major piece of its Duane Arnold restart in place.

On Tuesday, the company and the DOE's Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) announced the closing of a loan of up to $1.9 billion. The financing supports the return of Iowa's 615 MW Duane Arnold Energy Center, which stopped operating in 2020 due to uneconomic conditions. The DOE celebrated it as the third financed nuclear power plant restart.

NextEra is targeting a restart no later than the first quarter of 2029, which could shift around significantly based on regulatory headaches or if any mechanical issues are discovered, similar to some of the headaches with the Palisades restart. Google's 25-year power purchase agreement helped underpin the project.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 13:45
Tyler Durden

Solid 3Y Auction Stops Through Ahead Of Friday's CPI Report

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Solid 3Y Auction Stops Through Ahead Of Friday's CPI Report

With 10Y yields knocking on 4.80%, and threatening to blow out to 5% - if not beyond - there was plenty of interest in the outcome of today's 3Y auction, especially since tomorrow the Treasury starts the new and improved bond buybacks. And now that the auction has priced, we can say that there was plenty of demand. 

The sale of $58BN in 3Y paper priced at a high yield of 4.474%, which was up from 4.291% in August and the highest since July 2024. It also stopped through the When Issued 4.475% by one basis point; it was the third stop through in a row indicating there is hardly any shortage of demand for the short end. 

The bid to cover was 2.722, virtually unchanged from last month's 2.712 and better than the 2.621 recent average.

Internals were less solid: foreign buyers took down 62.15%, modestly below last month's 64.24% and below the recent average of 65.51%. And with Directs awarded a red hot 26.9%, the most since February, Dealers were left holding 10.91%, down from 11.74% in July and the second lowest of 2026.

Overall, this was a solid auction, and one which suggests that the bond market is hardly worried about Friday's CPI report or that the Fed will go full hawk next week when there is roughly a 50% chance Warsh hikes rates. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 13:30
Tyler Durden

Billionaires Are Buying Into Psychedelic Companies

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Billionaires Are Buying Into Psychedelic Companies

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Putting aside my skepticism of SpaceX for a moment, there is something worth paying attention to in the latest report about the people who made fortunes backing the company: they are now putting serious money into psychedelics.

And while I can’t necessarily get behind backing Elon Musk’s idea of elephants performing Les Miserables on the moon, or whatever other “lofty” goals are in the SpaceX S-1, I can get behind these follow up investment ideas.

Back in January when absolutely no one was talking about the sector, I officially hung my balls out there and name it my “Best Idea” sector for 2026. I was writing about these stocks years ago ago, first in January 2025, calling the psychedelic names “stocks to watch” for the year. Then, in July 2025, urging patience in these positions.

In April, after the administration’s executive order supporting psychedelic research, I reiterated my bullish stance and argued that we were moving from the phase where these therapies were ignored into the phase where institutions would be forced to engage with them seriously. That transition appears to be underway.

So far, the group has wildly outperformed the market, with the AdvisorShares Psychedelic ETF (PSIL) beating the S&P 500 by about +32% this year. Other individual companies I pointed out at the beginning of this year are beating the market by about +79% and +171%.

That doesn’t mean every name is going to work, or that the easy money hasn’t already been made in some of them. But the broader thesis continues to get validation, and the latest evidence suggests that capital is still finding its way into the space.

The biggest validation came in July, when Eli Lilly agreed to acquire AtaiBeckley for approximately $2.8 billion upfront, with another $1 billion contingent on development and regulatory milestones.

That is not a small biotech taking a flyer on an experimental treatment. That is one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world committing billions of dollars to a psychedelic-derived drug pipeline. Lilly’s interest is centered on BPL-003, a treatment being developed for treatment-resistant depression.

🔥 85% OFF FOREVER IF YOU SUBSCRIBE TODAY: I am again offering an 85% discount to anyone that wants to become a Fringe Finance annual subscriber today. It’s a discount you can keep and stays applied for as long as you wish to remain a subscriber: Get 85% off forever

To me, that is major commercial validation. It doesn’t guarantee that the drugs will work, that regulators will approve them, or that shareholders in every psychedelic company will make money. But it does tell you that Big Pharma is beginning to see enough potential in this area to write very large checks.

And now, according to the Wall Street Journal, more people with money are pouring into the space. The Journal reports that Antonio Gracias and Steve Jurvetson, both of whom made fortunes from early bets on SpaceX, have spent millions supporting efforts to bring psychedelic medicine into the mainstream.

Gracias put $25 million into Lykos Therapeutics after the FDA rejected its application for MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD. The company was subsequently renamed Resilient Pharmaceuticals and has been working to address the issues regulators raised.

Gracias has also donated $16 million to support psychedelic research at Harvard. Jurvetson and his wife, Genevieve, have backed psychedelic research and drug trials, while other wealthy supporters include Steve Cohen, David Bronner, and members of the Pritzker family, the WSJ reported.

This is philanthropic money, not necessarily money buying publicly traded psychedelic stocks. But it is still capital being directed toward the same broader objective: getting these treatments researched, developed, approved, and eventually into the medical mainstream.

And that is what I find interesting. For years, psychedelics were treated by much of the investment community as a fringe idea…right up my alley. Now you have major pharmaceutical companies making multibillion-dollar acquisitions, wealthy backers funding research, and companies continuing to advance clinical programs.

The sector appears to be gradually moving from a speculative story toward something that looks more like a legitimate pharmaceutical industry.

Of course, there is still a tremendous amount of risk here.

Any time an investment thesis depends on the FDA, you are dealing with an outcome that can change quickly and dramatically. Lykos is a perfect example. Its MDMA application was rejected, and the company had to be recapitalized and restructured. Questions around trial design, adverse-event reporting, safety, and the difficulty of conducting blinded psychedelic studies are real issues, not details investors can simply wave away.

There is also a difference between a promising treatment and a successful commercial product. Even if a drug gets approved, companies still have to figure out reimbursement, treatment infrastructure, physician adoption, and whether the economics actually work. So I am not suggesting that every psychedelic name is a buy, or that the sector should be chased indiscriminately after its run.

But I do think there is still a long way to go in the sector.

The Lilly deal was a major milestone. The continued flow of private money is another. And the fact that people who have already made fortunes on “unconventional”, long-duration bets are willing to fund this area suggests that the opportunity is still attracting serious attention.

The market has already started to recognize that something is happening here. My view is that the broader story may still be in its early innings.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and very often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning, meaning if I’m long I could sell or if I’m short I could cover at any time.

Contributor posts, guest posts and curated posts have been hand selected by me, but have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author or reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

I cannot guarantee the accuracy of any or all facts and figures included in this article though I made an effort to get them right. I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, and encourage you to always double check, do your own research and speak to a licensed financial professional, which I am not. I’ve never worn a bow tie or suspenders in my life.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things I’m bearish on. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions with my readers and any of my positions can change immediately as soon as I publish, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position.

Starting in 2026, I have been attempting to no longer actively trade (read my story here). My goal is for my investing/saving to be done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, It is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything, at any point.

In an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

The truth is, you are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier. Hence, why I am a writer first, analyst second.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Many times I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour.

Finally, and again, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it multiple times because it’s that important you understand.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 13:10
Tyler Durden

In Putin Call, Trump Seeks Swift End To Ukraine War & Restoration Of US-Russia Ties

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
In Putin Call, Trump Seeks Swift End To Ukraine War & Restoration Of US-Russia Ties

On Tuesday morning President Trump and his Russian counterpart President Putin held a "positive" phone call regarding finding an end to the Ukraine war, the Kremlin side has stated.

Russian president aide Yury Ushakov has been the first to provide a readout, with little revealed from the US side in the immediate aftermath. The phone call was "constructive and frank" and lasted exactly one hour, but remains "strictly confidential."

Likely the White House will also be equally scant in what information it chooses to release, given the sensitivity of the timing, coming just off the weekend shuttle diplomacy by Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Their rare, direct meeting with Putin on Saturday lasted than three hours, after which they traveled to Ukraine to meet with Zelensky, in what was a much more chummy atmosphere, naturally.

Ushakov in his fresh comments described of that prior meeting, "Overall, the visit of the aforementioned American representatives was assessed positively." He further said "European narratives about a Russian threat" were discussed in the call - an issue now "being used to justify support for Ukraine and increased European military spending."

The readout indicates, "Putin supported Trump’s commitment to building a constructive Russia–US partnership and emphasized that Russia has no hostile plans toward Europe."

Perhaps the most important part of the Russian readout is seen in the following:

Trump said he wants a breakthrough on Ukraine during his presidency and stressed that ending the conflict could open the way to a major restoration of Russia–US relations.

The only additional information that the Kremlin aide provided was that Trump and Putin agreed that work through direct contact as well as diplomatic channels would "continue".

The Witkoff-Kushner trip had come a little under two weeks after CIA Director John Ratcliffe unexpectedly traveled to Moscow and reportedly floated a trilateral summit involving Trump, Putin, and Zelensky.

U.S. President Donald Trump told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday in a phone call ​that he wanted a swift end to the war ‌in Ukraine, something that would allow U.S.-Russia ties to be fully restored, the Kremlin said. —Reuters

The diplomatic push comes as intensifying attacks by both sides around the Black Sea raise the risk of a global food crisis next year. Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, combined with disrupted Persian Gulf flows, are pushing the global refined-products market toward crisis, creating twin food and energy risks.

Reporter: On Ukraine, people are being kidnapped on the streets. Have you seen those videos? If you haven’t seen them, can I send them to your staff?

Trump: Show them, and I will put them out. I know about the videos. I heard about it very strongly. pic.twitter.com/YPfJF8e7Up

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 2, 2026

Despite the public-facing Washington rhetoric, the Iran quagmire... war... "excursion" has not been going so well as the US seems desperate for a final exit and end to the war. So Trump likely wants a "win" ahead of the November midterm elections, hence the sudden revival of pushing Ukraine talks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 12:35
Tyler Durden

Strategy Skips Bitcoin Buy To Repurchase $176M Of STRC Preferreds

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Strategy Skips Bitcoin Buy To Repurchase $176M Of STRC Preferreds

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Strategy repurchased $176 million worth of its STRC preferred stock and doubled the size of its digital securities repurchase program to $2 billion, while pausing on new Bitcoin buys.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, skipped its weekly Bitcoin acquisition to repurchase $176 million of its preferred STRC stock.

Strategy repurchased 1.8 million STRC shares for an aggregate $176.3 million between Aug. 31 and Sept. 7, according to a Tuesday filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The company also doubled the size of its Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program to $2 billion. With no new purchases, Strategy’s holdings sit at 845,050 Bitcoin (BTC), acquired for a total of $63.6 billion, at an average purchase price of $75,412 apiece.

Last week, Strategy made its first BTC buy since mid June, with a $370 million purchase. 

While STRC’s share price was largely flat in premarket activity on Tuesday, trading at $97.70, or a 2.3% discount from its intended $100 par value, the company’s Nasdaq-traded MSTR common stock was down more than 3% at last look, according to Yahoo Finance.

STRC is one of Strategy’s main vehicles to fund its Bitcoin accumulation. Trading below par limits Strategy’s ability to raise funds through STRC sales and may force the company to further increase its dividend rate.

Strategy unveiled a capital framework on June 29 to allow Bitcoin sales to fund dividends and increased the annual dividend rate on its STRC preferred stock to 12%. 

BTC treasury challenger Strive steps purchases

While Strategy opted to pause its Bitcoin buying last week, other companies stepped up purchases of the biggest crypto by market cap.

Strive, the fifth-largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, acquired 1,375 Bitcoin for $109 million, at an average cost of $79,281 per BTC, bringing its total holdings to 24,531 Bitcoin, CEO Matt Cole revealed on Monday. Ahead of Tuesday’s market open, the company’s Nasdaq-traded ASST shares were down more than 2.5%, after more than doubling in the past month.

France-listed Bitcoin treasury Capital B also revealed a $25 million Bitcoin acquisition on Monday, its largest in nearly a year, pushing the French company ahead of H100 Group among publicly traded BTC holders.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 12:20
Tyler Durden

Americans Feel Better About Jobs, Worse About Finances In Latest NY Fed Survey Amid Subdued Inflation Expectations

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Americans Feel Better About Jobs, Worse About Finances In Latest NY Fed Survey Amid Subdued Inflation Expectations

Unlike some recent extremely volatile months, especially in the first half of 2026, consumers expectations for inflation in August barely budged from July, as disclosed today by the latest NY Fed Survey, which showed that inflation expectations in one year were unchanged at 3.6%, estimates for inflation in five years were also flat at 3.0% for the 12th month in a row, while estimates for inflation in three years dipped to 3.2%, from 3.3%. 

According to the report, median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at the one- and five-year horizons and decreased at three-year horizon.

Taking a closer look at the component, median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.2% point to 3.0%, just below its 12-month trailing average of 3.1%. The decrease was driven by those living in the Northeast.

Among commodities, median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 1.7% points to 4.6% for gas, by 0.3% to 5.3% for food, and by 0.2% point to 9.1% for medical care. Median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.3% to 6.1% for the cost of college education and by 0.7 % point to 6.6% for rent.

While inflation expectations were tame, the view on financial wellbeing was split. On one hand, with less than three months ahead of mid-term congressional elections, the proportion of Americans reporting their financial situation was much worse or somewhat worse than a year ago rose to 38.6% last month, up from 37.6% in July. Those who expected their finances to get much worse or somewhat worse in the year ahead also climbed to 32.6% from 30.3%.

On the other hand, perspectives on the labor market improved: workers’ perceived probability of losing their job in the next year fell to 13.8%, the lowest reading since February. The likelihood of leaving a post voluntarily - a positive indicator - rose for the second straight month to 19.5%, above its 12-month average of 18.4 percent.

Both trends were driven by respondents with a high school degree at most and a household income under $100,000 per year. 

On the other hand, average unemployment expectations - the probability that the unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - increased by 1.6% to 44.4%, its highest reading since April 2020.

At the same time, the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.8% to 45.4% .

There was some deterioration in household leverage too, as a  larger percentage of consumers, 13.16% vs 12.00% in the prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payments over the next three months

Despite this seeming deterioration in household finances, the mean perceived probability that US stock prices will be higher 12 months from now was 40.9%, fractionally below the multi-year high in July, but far above the recent average.

Some more results from the latest report:

Labor Market

  • Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% in August. The series remains above its 12-month trailing average of 2.6%.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, its highest reading since April 2020. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 13.8%, its lowest reading since February 2026. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months increased by 0.9 percentage point to 19.5%, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 18.4%. The decrease in job loss and increase in quit expectations were both driven by those with at most a high school degree and those with annual household incomes under $100,000.
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.8 percentage point to 45.4%, just below the series 12-month trailing average of 45.5%.

Household Finance

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.0% in August. The series has been moving in a narrow range between 2.8% and 3.0% since June 2025.
  • Median one-year-ahead household spending growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 5.2%, above its 12-month trailing average of 5.0%.
  • Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago declined, with the net share of households reporting it is harder to get credit increasing. Expectations for future credit availability also deteriorated, with a larger share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead and a smaller share expecting it will be easier.
  • The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.2 percentage points to 13.2%, just above its 12-month trailing average of 12.7%.
  • The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.5 percentage point to 3.5%, its highest reading since December 2025.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.6 percentage point to 9.7%, remaining above its 12-month trailing average of 8.8%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on savings accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 28.8%.
  • Perceptions and expectations about households’ financial situations both deteriorated with larger shares of households reporting a worse financial situation compared to a year ago and expecting a worse financial situation a year from now, and smaller shares of households reporting or expecting a better financial situation.

The New York Fed data comes days after a surprise increase in job gains in August signaled the labor market remained resilient despite uncertainties caused by the war on Iran and persistent inflation. Payrolls rose 162,000, above all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The data reinforced Fed views of a stable job market. The next key readings are Thursday's PPI report followed by the CPI on Friday. 

the Fed is set to meet in Washington Sept. 15-16, after leaving interest rates steady over five straight meetings. At their last gathering, three officials favored a quarter-point hike. A growing chorus of officials has questioned whether the current level of interest rates will be high enough to tame inflation.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 12:00
Tyler Durden

Russia Vows To Keep Selling Oil to India Despite US Tariff Threat

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Russia Vows To Keep Selling Oil to India Despite US Tariff Threat

Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Russia will remain a key crude oil supplier to India, Russia’s Ambassador to India, Denis Alipov, said in an interview with Asian News International, in which he also criticized the planned U.S. legislation to slap tariffs on countries importing Russian oil.

#WATCH | Delhi: On being asked how confident Moscow is about the India-Russia energy cooperation, Russian Ambassador to India, Denis Alipov, says, "The question is - how confident is India? India has shown that it's able to stand its ground and defend its national interests. And… pic.twitter.com/gOZ3HFA4TR

— ANI (@ANI) September 4, 2026

Russia has become India’s single-biggest oil supplier in recent years, after the U.S., the UK, and the EU banned Russian oil imports and moved to increase sanction pressure on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.

U.S. Congress is trying to pass a “bill from hell” against Russia, sponsored by late Senator Lindsey Graham. The bill that proposes to give President Donald Trump authority to impose 100% tariffs on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas passed the Senate 86-11, but appears deadlocked in the House, amid disagreements among Republicans and concerns among Democrats that President Trump would have new authority to slap tariffs.

It’s unlikely that the bill passes in the House before the mid-term elections in November, analysts say.

Amid this background, Russia remains and will remain a key oil supplier to India, Moscow’s envoy to the world’s third-largest crude importer said.

“We would be ready to supply as much oil as India needs. Unfortunately, those who impose sanctions and tariffs have taken the path of pressure tactics instead of honest cooperation, which prevents those countries from offering a better deal to India in oil than us,” Alipov told ANI.

“The world will not cope if Russian oil is excluded. The energy markets cannot afford that. Russian oil will stay in the market for India and other countries. We are interested in supplying oil to India. India is interested in buying that oil,” the Ambassador said.

Meanwhile, India’s crude oil imports from Russia are estimated to have eased in August from July’s record high, as Ukrainian attacks on Russian export infrastructure and competition from China for Russia’s barrels have dented Indian intake of Moscow’s oil.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 11:45
Tyler Durden

US Embassy Issues Health Alert For Cuba After 'Significant Increase In Diarrheal Illness'

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
US Embassy Issues Health Alert For Cuba After 'Significant Increase In Diarrheal Illness'

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Embassy in Cuba has issued a health alert, warning Americans about a rise in gastrointestinal illnesses caused by the island nation's water and energy grid collapses.

"The U.S. Embassy has noted a significant increase in diarrheal illness across Cuba, associated with the continuing degradation of the water and energy infrastructure," the Sept. 4 alert reads.

The embassy stated that the degradation affected the country's water supply, food storage, and temperature control, sparking infections such as E. coli, norovirus, Shigella, and other gastrointestinal pathogens.

Americans are urged to "be cautious" around meat, poultry, seafood, eggs, dairy, and other perishable foods that have not been stored properly.

People are also encouraged to stay away from foods that have been at room temperature for a long time, avoid eating raw or improperly washed vegetables, and be careful before they eat any cooked food that has cooled and then is reheated.

Frequent hand washing was also encouraged.

Embassy officials encouraged people to stay hydrated and "seek medical attention for persistent or severe diarrhea, bloody stools, high fever, significant abdominal pain, repeated vomiting, signs of dehydration, or symptoms not improving."

On Aug. 28, U.S. embassy officials warned that Cuba's water delivery infrastructure was growing increasingly unstable as some neighborhoods reported going long periods without receiving water from the regime.

Officials suggested that the water issues and power outages were caused by the communist regime's "mismanagement of public infrastructure" across the entire island.

"Water often only flows to residences when city power is on for a sufficient amount of time," the August alert reads.

Eight months ago, the Trump administration started a fuel blockade on Cuba to force negotiations around returning democracy to the island, including allowing Cuban exiles to return to vote for the first time since the communist takeover in 1959.

The blockade cut off oil deliveries to Cuba from Venezuela's socialist regime. The island faces an energy crisis that has left about 10 million people in the dark multiple times this year.

Energy authorities reported two nationwide grid collapses in March and three in July, along with several partial outages.

U.N.-appointed human rights experts said in February that the fuel blockade was a serious violation of international law.

However, in March, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Cuba's grid has long been unreliable due to years of neglect by the regime.

"They were having blackouts last year," Rubio said. "They're having blackouts because they have equipment from the 1950s in their grid that they've never maintained and never upgraded, because they're incompetent."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 11:05
Tyler Durden

Lavrov Says 'Start Of Real War' Emerging As Russia Deepens Diplomatic Freeze With Germany

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Lavrov Says 'Start Of Real War' Emerging As Russia Deepens Diplomatic Freeze With Germany

More tit-for-tat between Russia and Germany amid a deepening diplomatic freeze related to the Ukraine war: the Kremlin announced on Monday that it is closing Germany's consulate in St. Petersburg, with operations ordered to by suspended by September 18.

"It was the German authorities who, once again, provoked a new round of escalation in bilateral relations," the Foreign Ministry stated, charging that Berlin "bears full and complete responsibility" for the consequences.

A prominent German culture center which has long operated on Russian territory, the Goethe-Institut, is also getting the boot across all branches.

All of this is a mirror image of the German government's earlier move to shutter the Russian consulate in Bonn and Russia's cultural center in Berlin, also as the EU blamed Russia as a "state sponsor of terrorism".

The harsh words and spiraling diplomatic crisis stems from the drone attack incidents at Germany's Leipzign Airport last month. There were at least two reported incidents, possibly a third. On the night of August 4, an explosives-laden drone was found on the tarmac near a Ukrainian cargo plane.

This prompted an urgent airport shutdown, as authorities believes saboteurs were seeking to blow up the plane. On the following day there was another alleged incident, per German media and officials:

Authorities discovered a drone fitted with explosives and a detonation mechanism on the evening of August 4 in the security area of Leipzig/Halle Airport between Ukrainian cargo aircraft and believe a second drone may have collided with a DHL aircraft nearby.

Last week, German media reported a third drone, also loaded with explosives, had also been discovered at the airport. 

German federal prosecutors described the incident as a "serious attack on Germany's transport and logistics infrastructure."

Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul had said after initial investigations, "The means used — such as the drone configuration, components, explosives and detonation systems — are known to us from other hybrid operations by Russia and its war against Ukraine."

The strongest words out of Moscow have come from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov this weekend. While the US delegation of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were in Russia for a 3-hour meeting with President Putin, he said that a "real war" between Russia and the West is emerging.

He asserted to a Russian state TV reporter: "This is, by and large, the start of a real war. They expelled the consulate general from Bonn. They’re closing the Russian House in Berlin. I remember that before the start of the Second World War... They want war again."

Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov on Germany:

But I remember that before the start of the Great Patriotic War, the Germans also closed their diplomatic missions.

They want war again. And all those statements made by Merz about how he will make Germany the leading military power… pic.twitter.com/xqfMEJ9bZO

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 6, 2026

Added to this is that Western powers are assisting Ukraine with intelligence to help with its long-range drone strikes against Russia, often against oil refineries very far from the front lines, and even more frequently targeting Moscow of late. And in turn, Russia has been ratcheting its own major missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital and other cities, taking aim at 'decision-making centers' too. Zelensky has sought to 'bring to war to Russia' - but is really risking very severe escalation that might bring NATO powers into more direct war with Russian forces.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 10:45
Tyler Durden

Canada's Counter-Tariffs Take Effect As Trump Targets Bombardier And Midterm Battlegrounds

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Canada's Counter-Tariffs Take Effect As Trump Targets Bombardier And Midterm Battlegrounds

Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods took effect at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday - raising duties of 15%, 25%, and 50% on hundreds of American products after last month's collapse of bilateral talks. Ottawa says the package matches the United States "dollar for dollar, rate for rate." Finance Canada values the covered U.S. imports at $27.6 billion; some U.S. accounts put the figure nearer $20 billion. Either way, it is a small share of total two-way trade - and a large share of the political risk.

GEOFF ROBINS/AFP/Getty Images

The list is drawn from goods already hit by U.S. Section 338 and Section 232 tariffs. Section 338, a long-dormant provision of the Tariff Act of 1930, had not previously been used by a president to impose duties; Trump invoked it in July to levy 50% on selected Canadian goods after talks failed, and those U.S. duties took effect August 22. Canada's matching rates now apply as follows: 50% on most steel and aluminum products (up from an earlier 25% Canadian counter-duty), plus furniture and clothing; 25% on appliances, dairy including cheese, and some metal derivatives; 15% on selected electronics, tools, and machinery. Goods already in transit when the rules took effect are exempt. The surtaxes apply to U.S.-origin goods under Canadian marking rules, not merely to shipments that happen to cross the border.

Seafood and fish were on Ottawa's original list at 25% but were pulled on August 27 after warnings from Canada's Atlantic processors and Maine's lobster industry. About half of Maine's fall catch is processed in New Brunswick; a tariff on those lobsters would have hit both sides. Finance Canada called the change "select adjustments... based on feedback" while adding other items, including copper wire and charcoal, to keep the dollar-for-dollar total. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) applauded the retreat - evidence that the targeting was political, and that it can be walked back when the politics cut the wrong way.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has framed the response as measured but non-negotiable. Canadian officials have described the country as under economic assault and have pledged not to match every rhetorical escalation. The practical strategy is twofold: impose a politically targeted list at home, and shop for other markets abroad.

Why Michigan and Ohio matter more than the headline total

Heading into November midterms, Canada's new tariffs are designed to land in states that do a high volume of business with Canada, and which have competitive races. Ohio shipped the largest dollar volume of newly covered goods. Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin follow close behind. Michigan sends roughly a third of its merchandise exports to Canada; auto parts often cross the Detroit-Windsor corridor more than once before a vehicle is finished. The new Gordie Howe International Bridge was meant to ease that flow. It now sits at the center of a fight over who pays the tariff.

Those same industrial states host competitive House and Senate races. Michigan's Senate contest between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is one of several Great Lakes races that will test whether tariff costs show up at the ballot box; it is not the only possible pivot for Senate control. Ohio's Republican-held Senate seat is also in play. Canadian ministers have said openly that the product list was chosen to concentrate pressure where U.S. politics would feel it. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly, at the August announcement, said Canada was "targeting products that will target states in the U.S." and added: "we're being wise and strategic to put political pressure. And that's why we think it's the right thing to do right now."

Trade groups on both sides warn that the first-round dollar amounts understate the damage. Integrated supply chains mean a duty on steel, parts, or appliances shows up as higher costs for factories and households on both sides of the border. Brad Wood, senior director for trade and innovation at the National Foreign Trade Council, called the cycle "bad for Canadian businesses and consumers, and bad for American businesses and consumers," and said each new layer is another barrier the two governments will eventually have to unwind.

Trump's next pressure points: autos, Bombardier, and Lake America

Washington has not treated Canada's move as the last word. President Trump has already threatened higher auto tariffs in 2027 and, last week, floated cutting off bilateral trade altogether. On Sunday he attacked what he called Canada's "dollar imbalance."

Hours before the Canadian tariffs took effect, Trump turned to Bombardier. In a Truth Social post he declared "NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES," called the company's products "not good enough," and said that if it wants the U.S. market it "must build here." He closed with a list of commands: buy American, fly American airliners, drink American liquor, and "SAIL ON LAKE AMERICA."

Bombardier did not answer the president by name. It noted that aerospace is a major U.S. export industry, that it builds wings and other components in California and Texas, and that it supports tens of thousands of American jobs through plants and a supply chain spanning dozens of states. About 55% of its 2025 revenue came from U.S. customers. The White House has not said how a sales ban would be enforced on aircraft already certified by the FAA.

The Bombardier fight is not new. Trump threatened decertification and a 50% aircraft tariff earlier this year over Gulfstream certification in Canada. Ottawa later certified several Gulfstream models. In 2018 a first-term Commerce Department case against Bombardier airliners produced a huge preliminary duty that the U.S. International Trade Commission later rejected.

Trump has also rewritten the map. On August 27 he signed an executive order directing the Interior Department to update geographic systems immediately from Lake Ontario to Lake America; Great Lakes placards went up in the Oval Office. 

Carney hit back, saying "We know that America is changing. Their trading relationships, their foreign policies, their national monuments, their hydronyms. Canadians also know that naming reality means calling it Lake Ontario - then, now and always."

Supreme Tariff Tiff

Canada aside - on February 20, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose his sweeping "reciprocal" and emergency tariffs. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that IEEPA contains no reference to tariffs and that no prior president had read such a power into the statute. Section 232 metal tariffs were left standing. The administration has since rebuilt parts of the program under other authorities, including Section 338 for Canada and a forthcoming roster of duties against other countries accused of "excess capacity" and persistent surpluses with the United States. Trump has also threatened to block trade with countries that export more to the United States than they import. A consumer-price report due this week will test how much earlier tariff rounds have already fed inflation.

Ottawa's hedge: Europe, and a quiet channel to Beijing

Carney will attend Ursula von der Leyen's State of the Union address in Strasbourg on September 16 and speak to the European Parliament on September 17 - the first foreign head of government invited into that ritual. He has said Canada will open "intense discussions" this fall on a deeper economic and security partnership with the EU, already its second-largest trading partner under CETA.

In parallel, Canadian and Chinese defence officials held a coordination dialogue on September 4, the first such formal talks in more than eight years. Beijing announced the meeting; Ottawa later confirmed working-level military-to-military contact. The optics - reopening a channel closed after the 2018 detentions of two Canadians, while NATO and EU ties remain the stated priority - have already drawn criticism at home.

The immediate economic hit from Tuesday's list is limited by design. The larger question is whether a two-month window before U.S. midterms produces a deal or another round.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 10:30
Tyler Durden

More - And Less - Of The Same Things

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
More - And Less - Of The Same Things

By Michael Every of Rabobank

It’s more of the same to start this Tuesday, and less too: and that isn’t good news.

Japanese Q2 GDP came in at 0.4% q-o-q, 1.3% y-o-y at the second read, backing the BOJ hiking rates again on September 18 – but is it really going to be ‘one and done’? The 2-year JGB yield is at 1.84% today, close to a new multi-decade high, and vs. the more usual 0% seen for years, while the 10-year is at 2.91%, off recent highs.

Alongside suspicions of further FX market intervention, USD/JPY swung from 154.37 to 153.21, with market chatter of a test of 152 next: recall it was at 160.35 at the start of the month. That’s quite the volatility shock for some books and for those who thought the Yen Carry trade was going to stay one way even after the recent warning from Bessent. Finance Minister Katayama said she will maintain an orderly currency market: but following whose order(s)?

The US and Canada return from a long weekend to a trade war. Trump is threatening to ban US sales of Bombardier’s Canadian-built jets unless production moves south of the border; Canada is set to impose counter tariffs. Showing the direction of travel, the press announced Canada had resumed defense talks with China after an eight-year hiatus, which as one Korean paper puts it, “reflects [an] effort to diversify partnerships amid strained US relations and defence procurement shifts.” How would that work with NATO and the EU unless the latter is dominated by a Germany run by the pro-Beijing AfD? The symbolism, and stakes, matter far more than that benign action, but as the FT argues, Canada “is fated” to keep trying to strike a better deal with the US.

Oil is close to $100 as the Financial Times quotes traders that attacks on shipping and eroding inventories mean “something has to break” soon, and Qatar warned of an “industrial catastrophe” if this crisis continues – and in logistics, things can go non-linear. US diesel is already at a record high, and the Middle East press reports bunker fuel for ships is running out in some places. Tellingly, Japanese shipping companies are considering a return to sails and kites to cut fuel consumption. That fits given Letters of Marque are a thing again now.

Meanwhile, the Houthis struck Saudi Aramco facilities; the UN envoy warned of a wider conflict in Yemen; Israel hit Hezbollah after ceasefire violations; the IAEA’s Grossi said the inspecting body is “completely blind” on Iran’s nuke program; and Iran floated a Hormuz exclusion zone with Oman “in days”, as the Wall Street Journal claims its oil dollars are gone, plunging it “into crisis – and pushing it to escalate. Markets are starting to accept that disruption is going to linger well into 2027. The question is how much worse things could get as well as better.

In Russia, Trump’s peace envoys reportedly found that Putin was still unwilling to compromise on Ukraine, which is little surprise, despite their official statement that there was “movement” towards three-way talks, as Zelenskyy stated the US wants to explore Russia-Ukraine winter de-escalation steps – like stopping attacks on oil refineries(?) That’s as the EU is urging the UK, Canada, Japan, and Norway to “step up to the plate” on funding Ukraine as Kyiv faces a $27bn budget gap in 2026, as it puts €200m into Greenland to try to counter Trump’s approach - but protecting that territory from all interested parties will take many multiples of that sum annually. For its part, Russia just opened a road to North Korea border, showing how they are working more closely together.

In geoeconomics, China's Huawei goes to trial in the US over sanctions and trade secrets eight years after the first allegations were made against it, as Brussels floated an EU ‘anti-China’ procurement rule where national capitals would be urged (is urging a rule?) to reduce their “strategic dependence” on Beijing when issuing public contracts. At the same time, Germany is reportedly worried that France’s Palantir rival risks creating a new dependency for it – on Paris.

Chinese export growth was a staggering 25% y-o-y in US dollar terms while imports were up 28.2%. The trade surplus rose again to a new record high of CNY809.3bn, up 11.9% y-o-y. We will have to wait to parse the detailed China-EU trade numbers ahead of the looming European decision on whether to start Trump-style trade protections vs. Beijing.

On top of all that, Trump posted a slew of messages, including: the ‘moon is ours’, meaning American; of himself in a spaceship; and of what claim to be proposed designs of a new Space Force uniform based on those from the 1997 movie ‘Starship Troopers’...

pic.twitter.com/uYM6I1IBTD

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 6, 2026

... which were based on those of the Wehrmacht, SS, and Gestapo as a more-is-more satire: the new look certainly smacks of Grand Moff Tarkin as much as Grand Macro Strategy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 09:50
Tyler Durden

"It's Pretty Tight": Vitol Chief Warns Of Global Fuel Squeeze As Refineries Max Out, Leaving Little Room For More Chaos

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
"It's Pretty Tight": Vitol Chief Warns Of Global Fuel Squeeze As Refineries Max Out, Leaving Little Room For More Chaos

Geopolitical risks in the Gulf pushed Brent crude futures toward $100 a barrel overnight as Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi rebels launched new attacks on Saudi cities and economic infrastructure.

At 7:45 a.m. ET, the US diesel crack spread remained above $101 a barrel as severe tightness across the world's refined-product markets continued, with a late-summer squeeze threatening to extend into fall and winter (twin crisis for Europe). 

Notably, the global industrial economy runs on usable fuels, particularly diesel, making refinery output and product availability super critical. Persistent disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, Russian energy export restrictions, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have compounded the squeeze into crisis territory, leaving fuel markets vulnerable to further supply shocks.

Vitol CEO Russell Hardy was quoted by Bloomberg earlier today as saying the refined-product market is in turmoil.

Hardy, who runs one of the world's largest energy traders, said that even as recovering tanker shipments through the Hormuz chokepoint ease pressure on crude supply, limited refining capacity leaves little room for further disruptions.

"It's pretty, pretty tight and inflexible out there as far as the market is concerned," Hardy told an industry conference in Singapore on Tuesday. He noted that product stockpiles are near their lows and continue to slide. 

Hardy warned that global oil-product stockpiles are "still drawing," adding, "We're still not running enough refining capacity to prevent those draws, and we keep eating into the surplus that exists around the world."

The strain is particularly visible in the US. Just go to any gas station, and you can see the wide gap between 87-octane gasoline and diesel prices. Last week, diesel prices hit a record high nationwide.

Also in the US, distillate inventories, including diesel, are at their lowest seasonal level in at least 25 years despite high refinery utilization.

In Europe, gasoil futures have more than doubled this year, while Brent rose as much as 2.3% on Tuesday to $99.20 a barrel.

Vitol estimates Hormuz tanker flows stand around 10 million barrels a day, but Hardy cautioned that this volume "isn't guaranteed to get out every day." He said, "It depends on ships, it depends on insurance, it depends on captains and crew being in to do that difficult job."

However, Goldman commodities strategist Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and her team wrote in a note last week (read here) that Hormuz tanker flows were between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, accounting for ships that switch off their Automatic Identification Systems to avoid detection by Iran.

Also at the conference, Mark Senn, senior vice president of global trading at US processor Phillips 66, warned, "We came into this shock with very little flex" in the refining system, adding that the US system is running at full capacity.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 09:05
Tyler Durden

Futures Fall As Inflation Fears Mount With Oil Set To Top $100

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Futures Fall As Inflation Fears Mount With Oil Set To Top $100

US futures fell as Brent crude approached $100 a barrel, chasing Shanghai crude which is now trading above $102, reinforcing expectations that central banks will have to raise interest rates to contain inflation while a key CPI print looms on Friday. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 futures were 0.3% lower while Nasdaq futures were fractionally negative after reversing an earlier rise. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower:

Stocks in Europe and Asia were also weaker. Brent traded around $99 after Saudi Arabia said operations at facilities in the kingdom’s south were halted by attacks. As discussed here, strong Chinese purchases added to tightness in oil markets. The dollar gained as the yen erased gains of as much as 1% deriving support from expectations of more restrictive Bank of Japan policy, which had pushed the USDJPY as low as 152, levels last seen in February.  Treasuries slipped ahead of a $58 billion auction of three-year notes. Today's US economic data slate includes August NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11 a.m.) and July consumer credit (3 p.m.). Fed speaker slate is blank during Sept. 5-17 external communications blackout period around the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Nvidia +0.3%, Tesla +0.2%, Alphabet -0.7%, Apple -0.4%, Amazon -0.9%, Microsoft -0.8%, Meta Platforms -0.5%

  • Best Buy (BBY) slips 2% after DA Davidson cut the recommendation on the consumer electronics retailer to neutral, citing the stock’s valuation following a 35% year-to-date gain.
  • Bloom Energy (BE) rises 6% and Everpure (P) gains 2% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the companies will join the S&P 500 Index.
  • Boston Scientific (BSX) slips 2% after the company said that the cyber attack that recently affected operations is likely to have a material impact on third quarter and fiscal 2026 results.
  • Herbalife (HLF) rises 7% after the maker of dietary supplements announced a $250 million share buyback.
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) falls 10% and Amgen (AMGN) slumps 5% after Novartis AG said its heart medication, pelacarsen, failed in a final-stage study.
  • Pharvaris (PHVS) soars 25% after a Phase 3 trial of its deucrictibant extended-release tablet for the prevention of hereditary angioedema attacks met its primary and secondary endpoints.
  • Rigetti Computing (RGTI) rises 5% after the quantum computing firm signed a $100 million pact with the US Department of Commerce to accelerate superconducting quantum computing R&D.
  • Roivant (ROIV) gains 20% after the drugmaker said a mid-stage study of its inhaled drug, mosliciguat, met its primary endpoint in the treatment for a lung disease.
  • Sigma Lithium (SGML) drops 16% after a Brazilian court ordered the suspension of all environmental permits for an operating subsidiary of the company and the complete halt of mining activities for the firm’s Grota do Cirilo lithium project.
  • Sweetgreen (SG) is up 5% after KeyBanc raised its recommendation on the salad restaurant chain to overweight, calling it a compelling turnaround opportunity.

In other corporate news, Brookfield landed a $1 billion commitment from the UK’s Nuclear Liabilities Fund to invest across several strategies, as the New York-based firm builds a new division that packages and sells multi-asset portfolios. Volkswagen is considering offloading motorcycle manufacturer Ducati as part of a sweeping overhaul of its portfolio. Novartis shares plunged after its del-desiran treatment for a muscle-wasting disease failed to meet the primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial; it’s the third drug setback in a week for the Swiss drugmaker.

Fear of upheaval in the Middle East is driving markets in the early part of a week that builds toward Friday’s US inflation print, data that may be decisive in whether the Federal Reserve raises rates or holds them steady this month. September hikes by the European Central Bank and BOJ are largely priced in.

“We are likely to be in some sort of period of digestion, because we are going through a pretty meaningful adjustment in terms of central bank policy around the world,” Anastasia Amoroso at Partners Group told Bloomberg TV. “So we might give a little bit of those gains back or at least some consolidation here.”

Stock futures are lower as traders return to their desks after the Labor Day holiday, with markets facing multiple tests including PPI and CPI prints, Oracle earnings and a conference season that includes tech events on both coasts. On top of that, a flare-up in Middle East hostilities and an escalating trade war between the US and Canada are adding risk.

As BBG notes, stocks have been trading sideways for a month, caught between strong earnings and mounting macro risks. Events like next week’s Fed decision carry binary outcomes that argue for some protection, according to today’s Taking Stock column. Fed officials have made it clear that Friday’s inflation print will be key for rates. While the bond market sees a 60% chance of a hike next week, such a move isn’t fully priced in until December. In fact, Fed funds futures signal the most uncertainty in years.

The tech trade is also in focus, with traders looking to Oracle earnings and conference comments for clues on current dynamics within the sector. Of note, software implied volatility has firmed up recently versus other areas of the tech complex. The implied volatility ratio of software vs semiconductors has been unstable this year as option volumes and open interest have exploded in both groups.

In AI, there’s been a rapid change in narrative around AGI, or Artificial General Intelligence. OpenAI’s rollout of GPT-6 on Thursday prompted Nvidia’s Jensen Huang to proclaim that “AGI has arrived,” sparking a renewed melt-up in Asian tech stocks and especially SoftBank which is a big backer of OpenAi. Still, the definition of AGI is nebulous, and not everyone is convinced. JonesTrading chief strategist Mike O’Rourke noted that the whole AGI conversation “was started by self-interested promotional individuals,” which damages credibility.

Elsewhere, ByteDance is readying an AI model geared for real-time spatial video generation, taking on Meta and Alphabet. An experimental lung disease drug developed using AI showed promise in reversing biological signs of aging. Anthropic is said to have walked away from $6 billion Decart purchase.

Global stocks may now be poised for a period of consolidation given the outlook for tightening, said Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at Partners Group. “We are likely to be in some sort of period of digestion, because we are going through a pretty meaningful adjustment in terms of central bank policy around the world,” Anastasia Amoroso at Partners Group told Bloomberg TV. “So we might give a little bit of those gains back or at least some consolidation here.”

Other assets have been active, with Yen strength triggering stop-loss orders, volatility gauges ticking up and copper hitting all-time highs. Oil prices are rising and Brent is grinding closer to $100/bbl after attacks halted several facilities in Saudi Arabia. That sent global bonds, European stocks, US futures and gold lower. German 10-year yields hit the highest since 2011, a UK 30-year sale is set for the highest borrowing costs since at least 1998, and Amazon has mandated banks for a four-part sterling-denominated sale.

Copper’s rally added to the inflationary pressure from commodities. The metal hit a record for a second straight session, with constrained near-term supplies and expectations of US tariffs on imports of refined metal buoying prices.

In geopolitics, Canada imposed tariffs of 15% to 50% on hundreds of products from the US, risking a wider trade war.  Trump threatened to bar Bombardier Jets, while the manufacturer noted it creates tens of thousands of US jobs.

The Stoxx 600 is falling by 0.4%, with health care the underperformer owing to a big drop for Swiss pharma group Novartis. Banks, insurance and tech stocks are weaker too. 

Asian stocks fell, reversing earlier gains, as inflationary concerns reemerged after oil prices neared the $100 a barrel level. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 0.9% after climbing as much as 0.6% earlier in the session. Japan’s Topix led declines as a sharp rally in the yen put downward pressure on exporters. South Korea’s Kospi closed lower, erasing gains of as much as 2.5% led by the tech sector. Stocks also fell in Hong Kong, Singapore, India and Australia.

“The catalyst for the turnaround is the news coming out of the Middle East that the Houthis have targeted more Saudi oil infrastructure,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Australia. “It’s all about oil being back in the driver’s seat.” There’s also fear of a “potential rate hike in America that’s kind of really pushing these Asian stocks,” said Sycamore.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed while the yen has continued its rally to put its 2026 high in sight. USDJPY last traded around 154, erasing earlier gains having hit a session low of 152.89.

In rates, Treasuries hold small losses led by long-end tenors as US trading resumes after Monday’s holiday, pressured by Brent crude oil approaching $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia said operations at several energy facilities were halted by fresh attacks. Supply considerations also are in play, including the 3-year note auction and anticipated seasonal rebound in corporate new-issue activity. Also, details of Thursday’s expanded Treasury buyback in the 10- to 20-year bucket are slated to be announced Wednesday, US long-end yields are about 2bp higher on the day with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads wider by around half a basis point. 10-year, higher by 1.6bp near 4.8%, lags bunds and gilts in the sector by 3bp and 2bp. Treasury issuance resumes with $58 billion 3-year new-issue auction at 1 p.m. New York time; $39 billion 10-year note and $22 billion 30-year bond reopenings follow on Wednesday and Thursday. WI 3-year yield near 4.47% is ~18bp cheaper than last month’s sale, which stopped through by half a basis point, and exceeds 3-year auction results since June 2024. IG dollar issuance slate already includes a handful of offerings; dealers expect a cumulative $70 billion this week and $215 billion this month, including at least one jumbo and capital-raising for AI data infrastructure.

Stretched positioning in bonds means that a short-term pullback in yields may be on the cards soon, noted Mohit Kumar at Jefferies International. A trigger could come from Friday’s inflation data or next week’s Fed decision, he said.

“If we do get a benign CPI print, which is our view, we could see a round of position covering, which would lead to a rates rally,” Kumar said. “Any pullback in rates is likely to support risky assets.”

In commodities, oil prices are rising and Brent is grinding closer to $100/bbl after attacks halted several facilities in Saudi Arabia. That sent global bonds, European stocks, US futures and gold lower. German 10-year yields hit the highest since 2011, a UK 30-year sale is set for the highest borrowing costs since at least 1998, and Amazon has mandated banks for a four-part sterling-denominated sale. WTI crude oil futures trade are up 2.5%, near session highs. Gold erased its rise too as oil prices rallied, falling below $4,400/oz.

Today's US economic data slate includes August NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11 a.m.) and July consumer credit (3 p.m.). Fed speaker slate is blank during Sept. 5-17 external communications blackout period around the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • The war in Iran has now cost U.S. consumers $100 billion in higher energy prices, and the bill is rising another $1 million about every two minutes, per a real-time estimate from Brown University as of Monday morning. Inflation shows up across the entire economy, and the recent surge in diesel prices threatens to have a dramatic impact on freight and travel in the weeks and months to come. Axios
  • Yemen's Tehran-backed Houthis attacked four cities in the south of U.S. ally Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, wounding more than 70 people and setting oil installations ablaze in what appeared to be a major expansion of the six-month-old Middle East war. They used ‌drones and missiles to strike a Saudi airbase in the southern city of Khamis Mushait, and targets belonging to Saudi Arabia's state oil company in nearby Abha, Najran on the Yemeni border and Jazan, a major Red Sea port city that houses a large refinery and power plant. Reuters
  • In offices across the military and in the intelligence community, there have been recent quiet discussions about cutting the number of people and facilities typically stationed in the Middle East if the Trump administration succeeds in ending the Iran conflict. CNN
  • New Canadian tariffs targeting roughly $20 billion in U.S. imports officially snapped into place on Tuesday, the latest escalation in an increasingly costly trade war that has ensnarled two longtime allies. NYT
  • Japanese workers’ nominal wages rose at the fastest pace in nearly three decades on the back of strong corporate earnings and a tight labor market, in data likely to keep the Bank of Japan on course for further monetary tightening. BBG
  • Two hawks on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy board are calling more strongly for the central bank to accelerate its interest rate increases, pushing it to do more to rein in inflation before their terms end next July. Nikkei
  • China’s export growth accelerated in August, swelling its trade surplus near $806 billion for the year. Its surplus with the US surged almost 44% to more than $29 billion. BBG
  • China's car exports stayed robust in August as BYD and ‌other automakers shipped a record number of vehicles overseas, in sharp contrast to a sluggish domestic market where their sales fell for the 11th month in a row. Passenger vehicle exports jumped 77.5% from a year earlier to 894,000 units in August, easing from an increase of 88.2% a month earlier. Reuters.
  • Goldman raised its oil price outlook by $5 a barrel, forecasting Brent at $85 by December and $80 in 2027 on expectations Middle East shipping disruptions will persist. BBG

Labor Day Recap

  • On the geopolitical front, the US launched strikes against three Iranian crude oil tankers on Saturday in retaliation for the IRGC targeting US Navy warships with ballistic missiles. Iran's navy also said it targeted three oil tankers that were travelling through unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz and three additional US vessels in other areas. Since the weekend, the Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said a deal with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz will be registered soon, while the FT reported that Saudi Aramco's oil facilities in Jizan were hit, which caused upside in energy benchmarks.
  • European bourses were lower across the board, given the upside seen in energy benchmarks.
  • In the FX space, G10s were firmer against the greenback, with the JPY the clear outperformer, while the EUR was steady despite the AfD victory in Saxony-Anholt.
  • In the metals space, spot gold was choppy but was helped amid data from China that the PBoC boosted its gold reserves for a 22nd straight month.

A more detailed look at global markets coutesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall Street and as attention turned to several data releases from the region, including Japanese GDP and Chinese trade data. ASX 200 underperformed with sentiment not helped by a deterioration in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment and NAB Business Confidence surveys. Nikkei 225 was choppy amid recent currency strength and as the latest data, including upward GDP revisions and hot Labour Cash Earnings, solidified the case for a BoJ rate hike next week.
KOSPI outperformed on tech momentum and after South Korean GDP matched initial estimates. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark was dragged lower by weakness in the local tech and biopharma stocks, while the mainland was kept afloat as participants digested the ultimately mixed Chinese trade data, in which Exports and Imports accelerated and continued to show strong double-digit percentage growth, but missed estimates.

Top Asian News

  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they will bolster efforts to secure funding for a consumption tax cut on food and will communicate fully with markets and the public to gain credibility in their fiscal policy. Furthermore, she said they won't comment on specific FX levels and there is no change to their forex stance since the Japan-US joint intervention, while they will closely communicate with the US to achieve orderly forex markets.
  • Japan LDP policy chief Kobayashi will retain post and Japan's Ishin party seeks a special mission post in reshuffle, according to Japanese press.

European bourses are softer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, with clear underperformance in the SMI, -1.4% (see Novartis below). The disappointing risk tone comes amid upside in energy prices. The Saudi Energy Minister said a number of energy facilities and utilities were hit, resulting in operations being temporarily halted. This was later confirmed in a Yemeni Houthis statement.
Sectors point to a mixed picture. Food, Beverages & Tobacco is the clear outperformer, with Optimised Personal Care and Chemicals rounding out the top 3 sector gainers. On the other hand, Health Care is the laggard, with Banks and Insurance completing the underperformers. Another setback for Novartis (-8.9%) this morning, after it announced that its del-desiran failed to meet the primary endpoints in its late-stage trial. Other key movers: Computacenter (-0.2%), strong H1 metrics and raises its FY26 outlook; Sandoz (+1.8%), confirms its 2028 outlook and set out new 2030 guidance and targets 100 biosimilars by 2040; Infineon (-3.6%), downgraded to equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Schneider Electric (-0.2%), downgraded to neutral at Santander.

Top European News

  • German Trade Balance (Jul) 21.3B vs. Exp. 16B (Prev. 15.4B).
  • German Exports (Jul MM) -0.8% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.9%).
  • German Imports (Jul MM) -5.7% (Prev. 4.4%).
  • French Trade Balance (Jul) -6.7B vs. Exp. -6B (Prev. -5.8B).
  • UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug YY) 0.5% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.0%).

FX

  • Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the USD. JPY continues to extend on recent strength, whilst the Kiwi is the clear underperformer this morning amidst the downbeat risk tone. Also factoring in is the mixed Chinese Trade data, which rose from the prior, albeit less than consensus.
  • DXY is incrementally firmer this morning, and holds within a 98.71-99.00 range. Overnight, the USD was mildly pressured, but then picked up in early European trade alongside a pick-up in yields. US-specific news flow has been lacking as participants return from holiday, but focus will be on trade updates between the US and Canada. On that note, Canada's retaliatory tariffs against US goods took effect, as scheduled. The Loonie is a touch firmer vs USD this morning, but likely benefiting from the surge in energy prices rather than any trade-related optimism.
  • The Yen story remains much more pertinent for the USD. Recent thin liquidity (due to Labor Day) has allowed the JPY to take more ground against the USD, with USD/JPY briefly dipping below the 153.00 mark. The pair is now trading at levels not seen since early February of this year. As mentioned in Monday’s FX update, the recent hawkish BoJ repricing, potential intervention/rate check, and increased possibility of larger GPIF purchases have lifted the JPY over the past couple of weeks.
  • Also helping the outperformance today is the firmer-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings and an upward Q2 GDP revision. There were also comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who stated there was no change to their forex stance since the Japan-US joint intervention and that they will closely communicate with the US to achieve orderly forex markets.
  • EUR is a touch lower this morning, pressured by the ongoing strength in the energy space. The ECB will hike rates by 25bps this Thursday, though the outlook beyond September remains more uncertain. If oil prices continue to lift energy prices, and second-round effects begin to filter through into the Eurozone economy, another hike in December could be likely. The single currency currently holds around 1.1611, with the high of the day a couple pips above its 200-DMA (1.1633).

Fixed Income

  • Despite some slight respite being found overnight, fixed income is back in the red as energy extends to fresh highs and Brent surpasses the USD 99.0/bbl handle, bringing a return back to USD 100/bbl into view. As such, yields are bid across the globe and the curve, with the UK feeling this most keenly given its energy sensitivity and after AMZN filing for GBP-denominated issuance.
  • Continuing with Gilts, the benchmark opened higher by around 13 ticks, taking initial respite from the brief overnight pause and potentially reports that PM Burnham is set to meet with businesses next week to reassure them into the budget. However, that swiftly faded with Gilts now down by over 10 ticks and at an 85.56 base following the Amazon update. For the curve, the 2yr is 4bps higher at 4.61%, but off the 4.69% recent peak from last week. While the 10yr is c. 3bps higher, and similarly off last week’s 5.29% near 20yr peak.
  • Bunds lower, by about 10 ticks at the time of writing and just off worst in 121.65-95 confines. Pressure a function of the discussed energy upside on Saudi and Houthi updates this morning (see Commodities/headline feed). For Germany, the docket features Green supply which should pass without issue. More pertinently, we continue to await a concrete response from Chancellor Merz on the strength of AfD, something that will become increasingly acute into more regional elections this month. Before that though, the ECB looms on Thursday, and while a 25bps hike is all but priced, the market will be keenly attentive to any dovish/hawkish signal from the statement/forecasts/presser, particularly at the short-end of the curve.
  • USTs are also under pressure on the resumption of cash trade after the US holiday on Monday. Currently, it finds itself lower by a handful of ticks and at a 107-09+ base, approaching Monday’s 107-08 trough. The docket today features supply and updates from President Trump as the scheduled highlights; though, geopolitics may well dominate.
  • Amazon (AMZN) to sell GBP-denominated bonds; 3yr, 6yr, 12yr & 19yr.
  • Germany sells EUR 1.374bln vs exp. 1.5bln 2.30% 2033 and 2.60% 2041 Green Bund.
  • Japan sells JPY 1.9tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 3.42x (prev. 4.15x), average yield 2.239% (prev. 2.020%), Tail in price 0.04 (prev. 0.02).
  • The Netherlands sells EUR 3bln vs exp. 2.5-3bln 2.75% 2036 DSL: Avg. yield 3.463% (prev. 3.206%).
  • Australia sells AUD 400mln in 5.00% June 2036 Bonds: b/c 5.76x, avg. yield 5.1874%.

Commodities

  • Firmer trade across energy once again as geopolitical tensions remain high, and with hardly any signs of peace between the US and Iran (more details below). WTI Oct resides towards the top of a USD 90.87-94.73/bbl range (vs Friday’s USD 88.72-92.17/bbl band), while Brent Nov sits towards the upper end of a USD 96.78-99.46/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.97-98.06/bbl band). Dutch TTF front-month resides just above the EUR 74/MWh mark after finding earlier support at EUR 73/MWh and then resistance at EUR 74.50/MWh.
  • Precious metals are subdued as higher energy prices keep the USD underpinned. Spot gold resides towards the bottom of a USD 4,388-4,443/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 4,381-4,435/oz band), while spot silver sits towards the lower end of a USD 65.69-67.19/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 65.40-66.74/oz band).
  • Base metals are mostly firmer despite the aforementioned crude prices and effect on the USD, with supply concerns and tariff fears cited by desks, alongside ongoing hopes of Chinese stimulus. 3M LME copper resides near record highs in a current USD 14.51k-14.64k/t range.
  • In terms of the main geopolitical updates, Iran warned that economic warfare will be met with a maritime exclusion zone from the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter, and said it has the ability to strike ships participating in the US blockade. Further, Yemeni forces launched ballistic missile and drone attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, including around Khamis Mushait, Abha airport and King Khalid Airbase. Houthi spokesperson warned that further attacks on Yemen will be met with broader strikes on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Energy Minister confirmed that several energy facilities and utilities were hit; are temporarily halting some operations. Further, Tasnim analysis suggests that recent Iranian commentary indicates that Iran is considering expanding the geographic scope of its maritime confrontation into the northern Indian Ocean.
  • Iraqi Oil Minister said they will soon announce refinery development and construction opportunities for investors.
  • Russia's Kremlin spokesperson said cooperation between India and Russia on rare earth explorations are being discussed.

Trade/Tariffs

  • Canada's retaliatory tariffs against US goods took effect, as scheduled.
  • US President Trump called for a stop to US sales of Canada’s Bombardier aircraft.
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said China's anti-dumping move targeting Japan defies practice and they will act to prevent an undue impact from China's actions.

Central Banks

  • RBA's Hauser said that the RBA stands ready to raise rates again if needed, the question is whether more is needed on interest rates.
  • RBA's Assistant Governor Hunter said the board is concerned about inflation and has low tolerance, adding the board may have to raise rates if there is a sense inflation will be stronger.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • US President Trump posted, "Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon. MAGA!"
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran has always opposed war but will continue to resist aggression with full force until the aggressors are made to regret their actions.
  • Iran's top national security official Rezaei said Washington has received a clear warning from Iran’s new missiles and that economic warfare will be met with a maritime exclusion zone across the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter, while he added that the operational posture toward US warships and bases has been fundamentally recalibrated.
  • Tasnim analysis suggests that commentary from Iranian official Rezaei signals that Iran is considering expanding the geographic scope of its maritime confrontation into the northern Indian Ocean.
  • Saudi Energy Minister said a number of energy facilities and utilities were hit and that some operations have been temporarily halted. This was later confirmed by the Houthis, in which they added that they struck the Khamis Mushait Air Base in retaliation to recent Saudi airstrikes. The group warned that further attacks on Yemen will be met with broader strikes on Saudi.

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

  • Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces struck energy infrastructure and drone-manufacturing facilities in Odessa and the Odessa region.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov rejected a proposal to halt strikes on civilian supply vessels in the Black Sea, Interfax reported.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said he hopes to meet US President Trump later in September to discuss the winter air defence package.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin has extended on Monday's losses and currently trades at the lower end of its USD 78.2k-USD79.5k range.
  • Republican senators have suggested that the bipartisan crypto regulatory bill is likely to fail next week, Semafor reported.

US Event Calendar

  • 6:00 am: United States Aug NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 99.3, prior 99.8
  • 11:00am: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations, est 3.60%
  • 3:00pm: Consumer Credit

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today kicks off the "home straight" to the end of the year after yesterday's Labor Day holiday where markets were understandably quiet with what focus there was on oil and German politics. Brent (+0.75%) continued to edge higher which helped the 10yr bund (+4.8bps) close at another post-2011 high of 3.39% with equities fairly subdued. US equity futures have just ticked very slightly into positive territory this morning after being slightly below for most of the session yesterday when the cash market was closed. Elsewhere the Yen is up half a percent to 153.52 and to the highest level since February.

This has likely been helped by Japan’s real wages increasing by +2.4% year-on-year in July, exceeding expectations of +1.8% and marking the strongest growth since May 2021. This also represents the seventh consecutive month of wage gains, indicating a gradual improvement in income trends. Meanwhile, total cash earnings rose +4.7%, the largest increase since January 1997, accelerating from a revised +4.0% increase in June. The stronger-than-expected wage data reinforces the overwhelming case for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates at next week’s policy meeting, following its previous hike three months ago, and supports the prospect of further monetary policy tightening in the months ahead. Q2 GDP has also been revised up overnight, moving from 1.1% annualised to 1.4%. However, expectations were at 1.8%.

In the rest of Asia, the KOSPI (+1.54%) is being driven by the tech rebound again, while the Nikkei is close to flat. The Hang Seng (-0.27%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.32%) are moving in different directions with the ASX (-0.84%) the largest decliner. 

In a low energy 24 hours the Middle East story has rumbled on as concerns about fresh US-Iran hostilities pushed oil prices higher still. In part, that followed the tanker attacks over the weekend, but it was also reported that the Houthi rebels had hit Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure yesterday. So that helped push Brent crude (+0.75%) to a 6-week high of $97.00/bbl, with WTI also up +1.33% to $92.70/bbl. Brent is up another +0.62% this morning. And there was no sign of respite on the gas front either, with European natural gas futures (+1.93%) also rising back to €73.34/MWh. So that exacerbated fears about European inflation, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+10.6bps) up to its highest level since May 2026, at 3.37%. 

With inflation fears mounting, that lifted European bond yields across the continent. So by the close, the German 2yr yield (+5.6bps) was back up to 3.00%, which is its highest level since June 2024. And further out the curve, the 10yr yield (+4.8bps) was up to a post-2011 high of 3.39%. Moreover, those moves were echoed elsewhere, with yields on 10yr OATs (+5.5bps), BTPs (+5.6bps) and gilts (+4.2bps) all rising as well. 

That rise in yields came as traders grew increasingly confident in future ECB rate hikes this year. In fact, investors were pricing 48bps of further hikes by the ECB’s December meeting at the close, up +2bps on the day. And as a reminder, our own European economics team also revised their ECB forecasts last week, so they expect the ECB to hike this week, and follow that up with another hike at the December meeting. See here for more on their view.  

Amidst all that, European equities were fairly steady, despite the rise in energy prices and the slightly hawkish rates repricing. The STOXX 600 ultimately closed up a whisker (+0.003%), with gains for France’s CAC 40 (+0.33%), alongside declines for the FTSE 100 (-0.08%) and the DAX (-0.15%). Sentiment was bolstered by positive revisions to the Q2 GDP numbers in the Eurozone, which were revised up to a +0.6% print from +0.4% at the preliminary reading. However, there was some weakness in Germany, where data showed industrial production fell -1.1% on the month (vs. +0.2% expected). 

Staying on Europe, German politics remained front and centre yesterday after the AfD came first in Saxony-Anhalt’s state election, winning 43.8% of the total votes, and just a few seats short of an absolute majority. Following the result, Chancellor Merz said in a press conference that he would double down on the reform course, with no indication of planned changes despite Merz saying he was “deeply shocked” by his CDU’s weak performance.

Early morning data from China indicated continued strength in trade activity, providing support for economic growth despite uneven domestic demand. Exports surged +25.0% y/y in August (v/s +25.9% expected), accelerating from +23.9% in the previous month. Imports also remained robust, rising +28.2%, up from a revised +27.6% previously, although slightly below forecasts for a +31.0% increase. As a result, China's trade surplus expanded to $119.09 billion, compared with $112.34 billion in the prior month and broadly in line with market expectations of $119.10 billion.

Finally on the inflation theme, copper hit an all-time high (+0.57%) on the London Metal Exchange yesterday, rising above $14,415 per ton. That comes amidst ongoing supply concerns, and the prospect of potential US tariffs on copper. So one to watch going forward.
Finally in another research advert, Henry published his latest market dislocations report yesterday. This month, he looked at why the current cross-asset equilibrium remains unsustainable, and how several asset classes are vulnerable to the impact of building inflationary pressures and a faster tightening cycle from central banks. See the full report here.

Looking at the day ahead, US markets are back open with the NFIB’s small business optimism index for August, the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, and July consumer credit data releases. In Europe, we’ll also get Germany’s July trade balance and France’s July current account. Finally, Canada’s counter-tariffs on US imports are set to enter force today

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 08:40
Tyler Durden

Copper Hits All-Time-High As Physical Economy Reprices Scarcity

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Copper Hits All-Time-High As Physical Economy Reprices Scarcity

Copper futures in London reached a record high on Tuesday as expectations of US tariffs drew record volumes from the seaborne market into US warehouses, tightening availability elsewhere despite subdued demand. As we highlighted on Monday, deteriorating conditions across global mining operations are adding to supply woes.

Benchmark three-month futures on the LME gained nearly 1% to reach $14,533 a ton, exceeding January's peak before trimming some of those gains.

Dr. Copper is breaking out...but this isn’t mainly a growth signal.
Tariffs sparked the squeeze. AI power demand could extend it.
Here’s what drives the next leg and what breaks it.https://t.co/tWrYrRYWxy

— The Market Ear (@themarketear) September 8, 2026

The industrial metal, critical for AI and power grid buildouts, has climbed 17% this year and 47% over the past 12 months, according to Bloomberg data.

Veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie reiterated his warning on X that the "physical economy is repricing scarcity in the real world."

Currie, the former Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs and now co-chair of Abaxx Markets, expanded on that idea:

Copper's record-breaking run above $14,500/ton should get everyone's attention. It is the latest sign that the physical economy is repricing scarcity in the real world.

Yes, part of yesterday's move reflects tariff front-running and metal being pulled into US warehouses. But that doesn't paint the whole picture.

Metal stranded in one part of the world is unavailable to everyone outside it. Scarcity is not just about how many tonnes exist, it is about having the tonnes in the right place at the right time.

You cannot build data centres, expand grids, electrify industry or duplicate supply chains without copper. Yet supply cannot respond quickly enough because of the same constraints I have highlighted in the thread below.

This is the latest rotation of the commodity cycle. Last month it was grain. Last week it was diesel. Today it is copper.

Weather, war and policymaking are the three horsemen that have combined against underinvestment (the revenge of the old economy) to create a scarcity problem that shows no signs of being solved. The bears will say the metal exists. Fine. But if it is locked in a warehouse, it is just a pile of metal.

Just two weeks ago I said the next phase of this cycle would bring "higher highs across more markets". Copper is now doing exactly that.

Copper’s record-breaking run above $14,500/ton should get everyone’s attention. It is the latest sign that the physical economy is repricing scarcity in the real world.

Yes, part of yesterday’s move reflects tariff front-running and metal being pulled into US warehouses. But… https://t.co/6eFZDXlDQv

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) September 7, 2026

Adam Gillard, managing director in commodity sales at Goldman, wrote in a note overnight:

LME copper makes a new all-time-high on 80% YTD adv. Despite the catchy headline we don't think there is anything new today; vol is offered as flat price moves higher and we think option positioning is 3/10 max. Think the franchise has 4/10 futures length to play a grind higher as LME continues to tighten on strong US imports. We have modest length mainly via LME spreads. As stated previously, the damage has been done; the threat of a US tariff was enough to shift all surplus metal to the US. Current dynamic of high imports, financed be Wall Street, without an inflationary tariff, is optimal from the administrations perspective; if imports drop off think tariff rhetoric changes given continued Critical Mineral security concerns.

Gillard continued:

Side-note: Never in my career did I think we'd see both (global) inventory and price on the highs together. No shortage of copper, just all in the wrong place (CMX). Regional deficit trading gtc.

Mine supply: Running negative y/y but this is not new; with global inventory up YTD hard to argue against being in a (global) cathode surplus. TCs a red herring. Frankly none of this matters; think we'll be trading regional deficits for the foreseeable.

US Imports: Remain firm; August should be ~200k MT whilst MTD September is already tracking at 77k MT basis ship-tracking data. We think the US has over-imported 730k MT YTD.

Source: Goldman Sachs 

LME Spreads: Which is why LME term structure keeps flaring; smelters can't run concentrate related shorts to prompt anymore to compensate for the lower headline TC given there is so little available metal outside of China / US.

Source: Goldman Sachs 

Chinese Positioning: Not stretched despite low domestic inventory; think they struggle adding length on the ATH with relatively tepid end-demand

Source: Goldman Sachs 

Scrap: Remains tight with secondary rod production still contracting by 50% y/y which is supporting cathode / apparent demand (& continued outperformance vs end demand)

Source: Goldman Sachs 

Chinese Inventory: Continues to draw, both upstream (-41% y/y) and downstream (-8% y/y), in part due to scrap-related tightness

Source: Goldman Sachs 

Michael Cuoco, head of metals at StoneX Financial, said the combination of strong demand growth and supply challenges "should bring about a tighter future market balance supporting higher prices."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 08:20
Tyler Durden

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