Zero Rss

We're Living In A Tragicomic Parody

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

We're blessed/cursed to be living in a very peculiar era in which parodies are taken with the utmost seriousness, an absurdist state of affairs captured by the classic line from the 1959 film North by Northwest: "So horribly sad. How is it I feel like laughing?"

The parodies are now so extreme they are self-parodies that cannot be parodied. How do we parody a world gone mad with parodies? Every attempt to parody "the news" today is trumped by reality.

We're inhabiting a travesty of a mockery of a sham of smug overlords and obsequious politically correct grifters, left and right, claiming the high moral ground while they pillage with a money-grubbing avarice so blatant that it's impervious to parody.

Their hypocrisy is so comically obvious that we can no longer tell if it's comic by design or the grifters are so shallow and superficial that they're blind to the irony of their self-parody.

At any moment, we might be instructed to wear our underwear on the outside of our clothing, and the Supreme Court would rubber-stamp this parody of serious policy with its usual cowardice, a cowardice that is now so blatant that it's also beyond parody: the Supreme Court is a parody of a functioning system of justice.

All this will be reported with great seriousness, as if it isn't a punchline in a joke nobody gets.

The irony of all the euphoric claims about AI is powerful enough to melt thick steel containment doors. The AI euphoria is itself an irony, wrapped around an even deeper irony: there is no way to tell the difference between an AI parody of "intelligence" and what AI presents as "legitimate intelligence."

A parody of AI hallucinations is impossible, because the reality of AI hallucinations already exceeds any parody. A parody of runaway AI mischief is also impossible, because the reality of AI mischief already exceeds any parody.

Then there's the parodies that are so systemic, they're the punchline nobody gets: the economy is a parody of a functional economy - here is total debt:

And the the stock market casino run by The Gamesters of Triskelion is a parody of a functional financial system:

Star Trek fans know the The Gamesters of Triskelion episode is a parody in which a society of supposedly great intelligence has decayed into a debased casino in which gambling and gaming the betting action is the sole focus of these supposedly intelligent Masters of the Universe.

Isn't it obvious that the US financial system / stock market is now such an absurd parody of a functional financial system that it can no longer be parodied, as it's a full-blown self-parody?

Ultra-Processed Life - everything is "innovative," "new," a novelty everyone must have, profitable glop presented as amusement and distraction not nourishment - is a self-parody not just of a functioning socio-economic system but of an authentic value system.

It's hard to take a joke when our entire economy and financial system is the joke. The comedian delivers the punchline and the audience is silent: they won't get the joke until it's too late to laugh, except through tears, for we're living in a tragicomic parody.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 08:05

Bolsonaro Leads Socialist Lula As "Huge Bet" On Right-Wing Victory Fuels Brazil ETF Options Frenzy

Summary:

• "Explosive Surge" in iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) call open interest
• BTG Pactual/Nexus Survey Shows Bolsonaro Leads Over Socialist Lula 
• UBS Calls Brazil Election "Extremely Close" - Bolsonaro Win Would Cement LatAm's Political Shift

The BTG Pactual/Nexus survey released earlier today puts right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, though within the margin of error, as a deepening Supreme Court scandal strengthens the conservative challenger's campaign.

🇧🇷‼️ | El Candidato Presidencial, Flávio Bolsonaro, lideró una masiva concentración de personas durante las celebraciones por el día de la independencia de Brasil. Bolsonaro afirmó que la voz del pueblo es la voluntad divina y aseguró que en las elecciones de octubre desplazará a… pic.twitter.com/UQkdjNQDyh

— UHN Plus (@UHN_Plus) September 7, 2026

At the center of the political turmoil is Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case that sent former President Jair Bolsonaro to prison for plotting a coup. Newly published private messages, according to Bloomberg, suggest closer ties between Moraes and Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of failed lender Banco Master, which is under investigation for fraud.

"Anyone who votes for Lula is voting for Alexandre de Moraes," Bolsonaro recently told supporters.

Polymarket odds for next month's Brazilian election show the gap between Bolsonaro and Lula narrowing dramatically.

Overnight, we ​​​​​​showed an "explosive surge" in iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) call open interest.

And someone appears to be making a huge bet on just that: explosive surge in EWZ call OI https://t.co/nqFaGgms4R pic.twitter.com/uen9bXmqBw

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 8, 2026

"The Brazil FOMO is real," The Market Ear wrote on X. 

EWZ call open interest just hit record highs. The Brazil FOMO is real.https://t.co/23lNn352mk

— The Market Ear (@themarketear) September 7, 2026

A Bolsonaro victory would reinforce South America's broader shift from unhinged left-wing regimes toward the common sense right.

UBS Calls Brazil Election "Extremely Close" - Bolsonaro Win Would Cement LatAm's Political Shift 

Socialist Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's polling lead over right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has eroded in recent weeks, leaving both statistically tied in UBS' latest runoff polling average. 

Arend Kapteyn, UBS' global head of economics and strategy research, described the upcoming election in early October as "extremely close" in a note to clients on Monday.

Lula (Left); Bolsonaro (Right)

Kapteyn's note today puts Bolsonaro at 50.4% in a hypothetical runoff, against 49.6% for Lula, adding that the narrowing spread leaves the candidates statistically tied. 

Kapteyn continued:

On 4 October, Brazilians will vote for a president, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate. Brazil currently has one of the highest real interest rates in the world, contributing to increasingly adverse debt dynamics. In our view, an election outcome that delivers a credible fiscal consolidation program could significantly improve the macroeconomic outlook. Relative to our baseline, real interest rates could fall by at least 2.5 percentage points (to around 5% from 7.5%), potential growth could be 1pp higher (2.5% rather than 1.5%), and inflation could be around 1pp lower (3.5% rather than 4.5%).

Our poll aggregator currently shows first-round voting intentions of 42.5% for Lula and 36.0% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Given the historical polling error of approximately 3 percentage points, the candidates' confidence intervals overlap. Rejection rates are elevated for both candidates, while other contenders collectively attract 21.5% of voting intentions. If no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round, a runoff will be held on 25 October.

The second round appears even tighter. Lula currently polls at 49.6% of voting intentions versus 50.4% for Flávio. Compared with our poll update a week ago, the lead has effectively changed hands. Importantly, these surveys were conducted before the latest controversy involving a Supreme Court justice, who is alleged to have advised an individual under fraud investigation, a case that could potentially implicate key allies within Lula's inner circle.

Historically, incumbent presidents have generally secured re-election when their "good or great" approval rating exceeded 40%. Lula currently stands at 37% on this measure. Conversations with two political consultants also suggest that momentum may be shifting in Flávio's favor. Nevertheless, prediction markets continue to assign Lula a modest advantage. Polymarket implies odds of roughly 55%-43% in Lula's ffavor while Kalshi places the race at approximately 55%-44%.

Polymarket Odds:

Read:

• Brazil's Socialist President Sees Lead Disappear As Bolsonaro Heir Turns Presidential Election Into Coin Toss
• Brazil's Socialist President Sees Lead Evaporating, New Poll Shows

The election may determine whether Brazil moves further left or right politically. Across the continent, the latest country to shift right was Colombia. Many others have followed:

By mid-2026, South America had already flipped. Argentina (Milei), Chile (Kast), Colombia (de la Espriella), Peru (Keiko Fujimori), Ecuador (Noboa), Bolivia (Paz), and Paraguay (Peña) sit on the right.

The remaining large left-wing governments are Brazil and Uruguay. Brazil accounts for about half of South America's GDP and population. If Brazil goes right, the region would be entirely aligned with the Trump administration and would be on track to rid itself of nation-killing socialism and other failed progressive experiments.

In Germany on Sunday, right-wing Alternative für Deutschland delivered its strongest election result ever in Saxony-Anhalt, dealing a sharp blow to the political establishment. Nomura analysts indicate that Europe may be in the early stages of "lurching right" (read the report).

Putting this all together, Western voters are rejecting nation-killing left-wing regimes that have done nothing more than allow mass migration, pursue progressive experiments, and neuter the West's industrial and power grids with climate change policies, which has only given China a leg up in the AI and weapons race. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 07:50

Europe's Von der Leyen Wants To Put Private Bank Deposits Under State Direction

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

How will we deal with private property in Europe in the future?

A highly complex debate follows from this question, one that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen interpreted in her own very particular way on Friday. In a speech to French business leaders at the MEDEF’s La Rencontre des Entrepreneurs de France in Paris, the former defense minister talked about using EU citizens’ bank deposits to get the ailing eurozone, the European economy, back on its feet.

An unmistakable message: In the view of the EU’s chief Eurocrat, private property as a protective wall shielding citizens from an overreaching state has served its purpose as a pillar of civilization.

Central planning, subsidy madness – this is Brussels under the magnifying glass.

Certainly: In the face of towering government debt and capital flight from the old continent, in whose wake thousands of patents and tens of thousands of highly qualified professionals are being swept away, citizens’ wealth is bound to awaken political appetites. A ruthless expropriation or the decreed redirection of cash, as the finest bureaucratic German puts it, is supposed to solve the problems Brussels itself has caused through its stubborn climate policy, its overregulation and its continuing insanity of interventionism.

Von der Leyen was explicit before the business leaders: Europe has savings, she said, but unfortunately those savings are sitting on the sidelines. Ten trillion euros are sitting as cash savings in the hands of private households in bank accounts, lectures von der Leyen in the manner of a classic central planner who can no longer take her eyes off citizens’ wealth. The European economy must now put this capital to work for its companies, the chief bureaucrat decreed.

None of this merely sounds like Erich Honecker. Von der Leyen is increasingly turning into a socialist sister in spirit to this disastrous regime.

Von der Leyen is following the path of the German chancellor. Friedrich Merz, too, discovered the cash holdings of Germans as political capital for himself more than a year ago – thoroughly socialist, indeed almost dictatorial, the chancellor also pointed to the possibilities opened up by what he called an activation of this money.

Ursula von der Leyen and Friedrich Merz reveal not merely an ethical and ideological abyss; they are contemplating dictatorial control over the private wealth of citizens who are still sovereign.

Almost tragically comical is the economic ignorance of these two political protagonists of an EU that is now openly turning toward an illiberal ideology.

Bank deposits are by no means useless cash. From the perspective of the banking sector, customer deposits are a central source of refinancing and liquidity, embedded in the money and credit cycle and enabling the provision of loans. Bank credit in the modern monetary system does not simply arise from passing on existing deposits. Commercial banks create new bank money through lending, although this process cannot simply be understood as a mechanical “leveraging” of existing deposits. Customer deposits thus fulfill numerous functions, from private liquidity planning and cash holdings to the financing and management of banking processes.

Such a massive intervention in the highly complex and fragile liquidity and credit structure of the banking sector would not merely be a barbaric act of socialism – it would be a frontal assault on the functionality of the banking system as such.

Nevertheless, the EU will resort to massive interventions – financially, after all, they have run into a wall.

Starting in 2028, repayment of the €800 billion Eurobond “NextGenerationEU” will come due. Von der Leyen’s speech before business leaders was ostensibly directed at the private sector, but in reality it concerned the financing of the European debt club, which is now moving toward tapping every financial source that can help keep the Ponzi scheme of European credit alive – the activation of cash appears to be one of those sources.

France is caught in a debt spiral, with new borrowing amounting to 5.7% of GDP this year and a parliamentary deadlock that rules out any form of fiscal consolidation.

Germany, too, will post new borrowing of more than 5 percent next year if the municipal deficit, the special funds and the social insurance funds are included – making common financing through Eurobonds, the consolidation of the mountain of debt under the roof of the European Commission and under the active liquidity assistance of the ECB increasingly likely.

And here the circle closes.

While capital is leaving the old continent through every remaining, every still-open channel, the financial needs of the EU’s ideological grand experiment and its nation-states are growing beyond measure.

The green subsidy machine alone destroys billions year after year. The final push over the economic cliff, however, will come from Europe’s rediscovered appetite for militarism. Military Keynesianism is not, however, an economic alternative to the free market. It is merely another fiscal grave that the political leadership is digging in its panic in these months.

The following final chapter is essentially known: Brussels will opt for massive capital controls.

The framework for this is already taking shape: In two years, the digital euro is to be introduced, initially as a pilot phase and, almost certainly at a later stage, as a monetary standard that will allow Brussels to exercise complete control over transfers abroad.

A ban on foreign bank accounts for EU citizens is also on the table and is being introduced step by step, just like the digital ID and the harsh regulation of the crypto sector. Slowly but steadily, the gates are closing.

Basically, this is how it always works in socialism: One day, the central planners will run out of other people’s money. Only then does the grinding machinery of repression by the powerful central authority begin.

* * * 

About the author:  Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 07:20

Europe Finally Gets Its Own SpaceX Challenger As Isar Reaches Orbit

At 10:12pm local time on Saturday, a 92-foot rocket built by Munich startup Isar Aerospace lifted off from a windswept island above the Arctic Circle and reached orbit,  where it deployed five small satellites into a roughly 500-km orbit on what was only its second flight, making it the first commercial European company to deliver payloads to orbit and the first successful commercial orbital launch from continental Europe. 

Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum rocket takes off from the Andøya Spaceport in Norway on Sept. 5. Source: Isar Aerospace

Readers may recall how the first attempt went. As we noted in March 2025, Spectrum's maiden flight lasted about 30 seconds before the rocket flipped over and dropped into the sea in a fireball. The post-mortem, per NASASpaceflight: a vent valve popped open at T+25 seconds during the pitch-over maneuver, the vehicle lost attitude control, and the flight termination system cut all nine engines at T+30. Isar went back to the drawing board, rewrote the software, and widened the vehicle's margins.

🚀 LAUNCH!
Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum rocket has lifted off on its second flight from Andøya Spaceport in Norway.

Europe’s commercial space industry is moving fast.

Another rocket. Another step toward independent access to space. pic.twitter.com/uivGRp7Gsu

— Cosmos Europa (@CosmosEuropa) September 6, 2026

According o European Spaceflight, the 2026 campaign was not a smooth affair: January, scrubbed for a pressurization valve. March, delayed by weather, then scrubbed when an unauthorized boat wandered into the maritime exclusion zone. April, a leak in a composite pressure vessel. June, "off-nominal behaviour" in the fluid systems. September 4, called off hours after the road closures went into effect. September 5, orbit.

On Sunday their Spectrum rocket finally reached orbit. 

That was awesome to see live! pic.twitter.com/YT39A7rhfO

— fiveten (@fiveten_at) September 5, 2026

CEO Daniel Metzler said in a statement that Europe now has sovereign access to space, and that vehicle launches remain "the largest bottleneck for the global space industry."

Welcome To The Big Leagues

In response to the launch, Berlin, Brussels, Paris and Oslo all rushed out excited statements on Saturday night - which come after a series of dismal European 'failures to launch' (both literal and figurative).

Between 2022 and 2024, Europe lost access to Russian Soyuz after the Ukraine invasion, grounded the medium-lift capable Vega-C after a December 2022 failure, retired Ariane 5, and watched Ariane 6 slip four years past its planned 2020 debut. The upshot: Galileo, the navigation constellation Europe built specifically so it wouldn't have to depend on America's GPS, went up on a Falcon 9 in April 2024 under a €180 million contract with SpaceX, alongside ESA's Euclid telescope, the EarthCARE climate satellite and the Hera asteroid mission. European officials "studiously avoided" mentioning which rocket had carried them.

In 2025, Europe managed seven orbital launches: four Ariane 6 and three Vega-C, all from French Guiana. The United States did 193. China did 93. SpaceX alone flew 165 Falcon 9 missions, roughly one every 2.2 days, with individual boosters now on their 32nd flight.

My pictures of the launch taken from Grøtavær, 31 km from pad at Andøya! pic.twitter.com/4OajwBKTIM

— Knottjogg (@knottjogg) September 5, 2026

ESA's answer was the European Launcher Challenge: rather than build yet another agency rocket, pay commercial upstarts to prove they can reach orbit by the end of 2027, then buy launches from the survivors through 2030. Member states were so keen that at last November's ministerial in Bremen they more than doubled the €420 million ESA had asked for, subscribing €902 million inside a record €22.07 billion three-year budget. Isar signed its €197.8 million contract on August 27, nine days before clearing the first milestone more than a year ahead of the deadline. Rocket Factory Augsburg (€186.9 million) and Spain's PLD Space (€158.9 million) got the other two contracts; ArianeGroup's own MaiaSpace was conspicuously left waiting, and Britain's Orbex went into administration in February, leaving the UK's contribution unassigned.

Timing... 

The launch landed four days before Emmanuel Macron opens his international space summit in Paris on Wednesday, a two-day affair whose stated theme is European sovereignty in space, and which SpaceX, Blue Origin, Stoke Space and Starcloud pulled out of last Thursday after a White House Office of Science and Technology Policy official told U.S. companies on a private call, per Politico, that attending "could look like tacit support for EU policy positions."

The policies in question: the EU Space Act, which would require any operator serving EU users to obtain prior authorization and appoint an EU legal representative, and a Franco-German push to carve out more satellite spectrum for European operators, including the €10-billion-plus IRIS² constellation. That is to say, for someone other than Starlink.

The French research ministry said it was "difficult not to link" the cancellations to the reports of pressure; an Élysée official shrugged that it was the absentees' loss. Chinese delegations are expected to fill the empty chairs. And in a detail that undercuts the drama somewhat, the same American companies are due back in Paris a week later for World Space Business Week, where they will presumably be happy to sell to the Europeans they declined to meet.

So: Washington leans on its rocket companies to boycott a summit about Europe not depending on American rocket companies, and 96 hours before it opens, a German rocket reaches orbit from Norway. You could not script it.

Funding Fuels Flight

In the 17 months between fireball and orbit, Isar says its demand flipped from almost entirely civil to roughly 60% defense, with the manifest now booked through 2028. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius toured the Ottobrunn factory in July to reiterate the €35 billion Germany intends to pour into space over the coming years, calling it "an indispensable security domain that cannot be replaced." Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited the Andøya pad in March and on Saturday called the launch "the beginning of a new era." EU defense and space commissioner Andrius Kubilius chimed in from Brussels along the same lines. Norway's trade minister cast it as a matter of Norwegian and European security; Oslo has already contracted Spectrum to launch two Arctic Ocean surveillance satellites by 2028.

Isar’s Spectrum rocket rolls out to its launch pad in Norway. Credit: Isar Aerospace

The NATO Innovation Fund made Isar its first-ever investment in a launch provider in 2024. State-owned KfW Capital co-invested in June's €270 million Series D, which valued the company at roughly €2 billion and took total funding to about €870 million alongside Lakestar, HV Capital, UVC Partners, Molten Ventures, Island Green Capital, Airbus Ventures, Porsche SE and Eldridge. And on the day NATO leaders gathered in Ankara in July, Isar signed a 10-year, roughly $112 million deal for a dedicated pad at Spaceport Nova Scotia, pitched explicitly as sovereign access for Canada, with first launches targeted for 2028.

Chief commercial officer Stella Guillen told CNBC on Monday that the industry is "desperate" for launch capacity and that Isar's pipeline now exceeds €10 billion ($11.6 billion). CNBC noted the company did not immediately clarify how much of that is actually under contract. Metzler, for his part, told reporters an IPO is not being considered.

Spectrum lifts up to 1,000 kg to low Earth orbit (700 kg to sun-synchronous), roughly a twentieth of a Falcon 9, and it is fully expendable; Isar has signaled reusability only for later versions. Its long-advertised target of about €10,000 per kilogram sits above the $5,000 to $7,000 per kilogram SpaceX charges on Transporter rideshares, though those prices have been climbing and the slots are getting scarcer as Kuiper, Chinese constellations and military customers eat the manifest. Isar's pitch is that governments will pay a premium for a dedicated ride to a specific orbit on a rocket built and launched inside NATO territory. Saturday's payloads, for what it's worth, were DLR competition winners flying on ESA's dime, not paying customers.

Picture of your launch from Tromsø... pic.twitter.com/dEVymGWzYB

— Stefan Christensen (@stefanchrist) September 5, 2026

Right now, Spectrum vehicles 3 through 7 are in production, and the new 40,000 m² factory at Parsdorf is meant to eventually turn out 40 rockets a year, a figure that would put a company that has flown twice at roughly a quarter of SpaceX's 2025 cadence.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 06:55

The Bond Selloff Isn't Fiscal Armageddon, It's The End Of A Decade Of Financial Repression; Deutsche Bank

Authored by Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank global head of macro research,

The latest global bond sell-off has revived the idea that markets are fretting over unsustainable public finances. As concerned as I am by this issue in the longer term, the recent bond market weakness at the moment should be seen more as a continuation of the long normalisation from the historic anomaly of the 2010s.

That was a decade of financial repression with central banks buying trillions in government debt, benchmark policy rates sitting near zero, and sovereign borrowing costs held down for years. Had you been on a desert island for a couple of decades, the level of yields today would look perfectly normal at the end of your sabbatical from the world, not at crisis levels.

At Deutsche Bank, our house view has consistently been in recent years that yields would rise due to heavy government issuance, the retreat of quantitative easing programmes of bond buying by central banks and inflation levels that have been persistently higher and more volatile than the pre-pandemic period. In the US, inflation has now been above the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target for more than five years.

There is also some positive news that has supported higher yields. Global growth has held up better than most expected since the conflict with Iran began. US nominal GDP growth in the second quarter was 6.6 per cent year on year, which, outside the Covid-19 bounceback period, was the highest level since 2005. Clearly, part of this reflects higher energy prices and inflation, but there is no doubt that real growth is also holding up, partly thanks to the continuing AI boom. This has also increased corporate debt supply, which has competed with government bonds for investor demand in recent months. European growth, meanwhile, is also performing better than many thought possible in the face of an all-too-familiar energy shock for the continent.

And make no mistake, fiscal concerns are real and higher borrowing costs potentially worsen debt arithmetic, especially if growth fades.

The big shift, though, is that the equilibrium rate for bond yields is higher than markets became accustomed to in the ultra-loose era.

This has raised understandable concern, but one thing has been under-reported: returns for investors are starting to stabilise and, in many cases, have been positive over recent months and years.

This has been a welcome change from the early 2020s, when low starting yields offered no protection from the bear market. Rolling five- and 10-year total returns are still around their lowest on record across many government bond markets. However, the worst of the negative-return period is probably behind us.

Over the past year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return index delivered a positive return even as 10-year yields rose by about 0.60 percentage points. From current levels, the 10-year yield would need to rise to roughly 5.5 per cent over the next year, or 6.4 per cent over two years, before total returns turned negative. An investor who bought 10-year Treasuries at the October 2023 yield peak of 4.99 per cent would now have a total return of more than 16 per cent. It is a useful reminder of how much starting yield now matters.

The UK provides an even clearer example, given the constant negative headlines. Ten-year gilt yields are now about 0.65 percentage points above the peaks reached during the 2022 mini-Budget crisis. Yet the broad gilt index has returned roughly 12 per cent since those crisis highs. There hasn’t been any prolonged period of negative returns in gilts over those four years.

This does not mean the secular adjustment is complete. Outside of a material downgrade to growth expectations or an external shock, the forces encouraging yields to move upwards are unlikely to disappear, but at least we’re in the ballpark of normal again. Over the past 100 years, a period with regular and large swings in prices, inflation has averaged 3 per cent in the US and 4 per cent in the UK — a higher level than that seen since 1990 but lower than current long-dated yields.

After years in which returns depended heavily on capital gains, more normal levels of yields are again providing income that can compound over time, which is helping to cushion volatility and steadily reward patience. The pressures will remain, and it’s hard to see spectacular returns, especially in real terms, but at least bonds have become bonds again, and investors should bear this in mind when the next inevitable bad headline comes through.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 06:30

AfD's Historic Win Shocks German Political Establishment: Here's What Happens Next

The pro-Germany, anti-globalist, anti-mass migration right-wing populist party known as Alternative für Deutschland delivered its strongest election result ever in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, dealing a sharp blow to Germany's political establishment. 

On Sunday, AfD secured 43.8% of the vote in Sunday's regional election, exceeding polling estimates. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats lost about 19 percentage points, while turnout surged to 77.8% from 60.3% in 2021.

According to Marion Mühlberger, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank, AfD's weekend win leaves the party holding 39 seats in the 83-member legislature, three short of an absolute majority. The CDU, Social Democrats, Greens and Left also have a combined 39 seats. 

German AfD Leader Alice Weidel:

Germany is de facto bankrupt. Germany is broke, and they are not telling you that.

At some point, you simply have to lay the cards on the table and put the numbers out there. The whole thing is no longer financially sustainable.

France is broke… pic.twitter.com/nJaYk9btDz

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 7, 2026

Mühlberger said there are two possible outcomes of what comes next: an AfD minority government tolerated by BSW, or a political stalemate that leads to a snap election, which would only give AfD a new opportunity to secure outright control.

 Mühlbergere explained:

At the time of writing, the two most likely options are i) an AfD minority government (supported by the BSW) or ii) a stalemate resulting in snap elections, with the AfD hoping to reach an absolute majority rather than attempting a minority government. AfD leadership for now appears undecided on their preference: while national co-leader Chrupalla last night indicated a willingness to try a minority government, AfD's lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund, already suggested a snap election as his preferred option, saying that "the AfD is not prepared to make far- reaching compromise to form a coalition."

We believe that even an AfD (minority) government supported by the BSW would have materially detrimental ramifications for the economic prospects of Saxony-Anhalt over the coming years. Direct investment in the state would likely decline amid significant policy uncertainty, and skilled worker shortages would likely become even more pronounced. However, Saxony-Anhalt contributes less than 2% of German GDP, and any structural damage done to the regional economy is unlikely to spill over to the rest of the German economy. While an AfD state government might test some of Germany's federal institutions, it will have no leverage over national economic or fiscal policy, not even via the constitutional court.

Over the course of today, we will see leaders of the coalition parties in Berlin officially react to their parties' weak electoral performance. Chancellor Merz is expected to give a press statement today at 13.30 CET. There will likely be considerable political noise over the couple of weeks ahead of the state elections on 20 September in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. There may be some criticism of party leadership and reform proposals. However, once these final state elections of the year are over, we believe that an AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt is likely to provide an additional impetus for the federal government coalition to double down on reforms

Mühlbergere said the five seats held by the populist BSW will be decisive: 

Thus, the populist BSW, with its 5 seats, has a key role to play in the upcoming coalition negotiations as potential kingmakers. While the AfD missed their 45+% / absolute majority election target, they missed it so narrowly that it seems difficult for them to not aim for governing Saxony-Anhalt

The BSW is the potential kingmaker

As no single party reached an absolute majority needed to govern alone, coalition negotiations for entering a formal coalition or receiving ad hoc support for a minority government will kick off today. 

The BSW has theoretically three options once the new parliament has convened and the next state premier is to be elected. First, they could elect the AfD lead candidate as state premier (without entering a formal coalition), second they could elect the CDU lead candidate or third they could abstain in the first two ballots for state premier. 

Judging from statements of BSW co-leaders (at the federal level) Wagenknecht and Ali yesterday night,1 we deem the first option the most likely.

What comes next? There are two options:

Option 1 - BSW abstains in third round facilitating an AfD minority government 

This morning, BSW leader Wagenknecht called for a "political reset" in Saxony- Anhalt, especially when it comes to energy policy, sanctions against Russia (which however are set at the EU level), education, and public broadcasting. Thus, there is a certain overlap of political priorities with the AfD. However, the BSW does not want to enter a formal coalition with the AfD. 

With the AfD rejecting the BSW's proposal for an independent state premier, an AfD minority government tolerated by the BSW seems to be a possible outcome. This means that the BSW would not enter a formal coalition with the AfD, but elect the AfD lead candidate as state premier in an informal cooperation.

Option 2 - The route to snap elections 

The newly elected parliament must convene for the first time by 6 October at the latest. But the regional constitution does not set a deadline for electing a state premier. Until a new government is elected, Sven Schulze will remain in office leading the caretaker government. 

As government formation could turn out to be complex, snap elections may be a possible way out. The AfD's lead candidate Siegmund already suggested this as a potential option, saying that the AfD is not prepared to make far-reaching compromise to form a coalition.

There are three routes to snap elections:

1. If the newly elected parliament does not elect a state premier with an absolute majority after two ballots, it can decide with an absolute majority to dissolve itself before a third ballot. 
2. Six months after the election, the new parliament can decide with a two- thirds majority to dissolve itself. 
3. A newly elected state premier could call a vote of confidence. This could be a viable option for an AfD minority government, confident of winning an absolute majority in snap elections.

It is highly uncertain that snap elections would generate clear majorities. What could help the AfD is the narrative that the other parties want to keep them out of power, and that they now need a clear mandate. Moreover, smaller parties would again be at risk of not making the 5% hurdle, which would help the AfD. On the other hand, the strong AfD performance could again mobilise the centrist forces to avoid the AfD winning an absolute majority.

Mühlberger's assessment was that an AfD majority in Saxony-Anhalt could weaken investment and aggravate skilled-worker shortages. She cited policy uncertainty, the party's anti-mass migration agenda, and potential conflict with the civil service.

For Merz, the most consequential challenge is containing AfD's momentum in the upcoming elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on Sept. 20.

German AfD Leader Alice Weidel:

No chancellor before him has been as unpopular as Friedrich Merz, who has become a major burden on Germany’s positive development. pic.twitter.com/2jnLjadz34

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 7, 2026

Polymarket's "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner" market puts AfD's odds of winning at 82%.

AfD's odds of winning the Berlin election are much lower, at around 18%.

While Deutsche Bank was considerably less favorable toward AfD, Nomura analyst Andrzej Szczepaniak's recent report said that markets are less concerned about right-wing populism and more concerned about "populist left-wing parties being elected due to their desire to increase spending."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 05:55

Ukraine's 'Mood Swing' Against Zelensky: Widespread Fraud, Wartime Protests, Unpopular Dismissals

The mainstream media is turning on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and more and more of his population may be doing the same, at a moment of multiple high level corruption cases running straight through the presidential office.

To review, this was the second straight summer that controversial decisions by Zelensky sparked rare war time protests in Ukraine. In summer of 2025, Zelensky moved to weaken and de-legitimize two key national anti-corruption bodies. After, he came under immense pressure, also from Europe, and was forced to reverse course.

AFP/Getty Images

Then in July of this year, he dismised his popular young defense minister amid a major military reshuffling, which appears to be ongoing. Mykhailo Fedorov had been just six months on the job, and Ukrainians were by and large pleased with his strategy and direction in the war.

A sort of internal civil war had been raging between top military command and defense ministry ranks. Zelensky's intervention and final reshuffle remains highly controversial and unpopular.

Days ago, the 'esteemed' and very establishment journal, Foreign Policy ran a surprise headline strongly suggesting a popular swing among the citizenry against his rule, which has been extended amid canceled elections and martial law: 

Ukraine’s Mood Swing: Public sentiment is turning against Zelensky amid corruption concerns and weariness with his rule.

"For most of his presidency and especially since Russia launched its full-scale war, Ukrainian voters have rallied around Volodymyr Zelensky as a pillar of national resilience and unity," the FP report introduces of the 'good ole days'. "That’s for good reason: He has been an effective wartime leader and helped mobilize the democratic world on Ukraine’s behalf.

"But now, after more than seven years in office, four and a half years of war with Russia, and a series of scandals involving his leadership team and close friends, Zelensky appears to have lost the nation’s political support," it then adds. "Indeed, polling published in early August points to a major mood swing among Ukrainians, suggesting that many of them have lost faith in Zelensky and would vote him out of office at the earliest opportunity."

Following on this, the NY Times on Sunday detailed how Ukraine lost around $1.2 billion to fraud, waste and mismanagement in military procurement activities. This was in 2024 alone, the paper found, based on confidential documents and audits.

The NYT characterized the waste and fraud as a "persistent phenomenon" led by seven large military contractors in Ukraine, all of which kept landing new large contracts despite ongoing fraud investigations into them.

One section of the Times report reads as follows:

But even as the officials noticed that weapons were arriving faulty, government audits obtained by The New York Times show, Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency continued to award Mr. Shyman’s factory new contracts.

The case reflects a persistent phenomenon of the war in Ukraine. Seven of Ukraine’s top 10 military contractors won new business despite open criminal investigations for fraud, failures to deliver on earlier deals or the arrest of chief executives for corruption, according to the government audits obtained by The Times, court records and Ukrainian news accounts.

The devastating report concludes that in Ukraine, wrongdoing is continually 'rewarded' with new opportunities and contracts, at a moment hundreds of billions in European and US aid continues to get doled out.

You don't see THIS everyday...

Recent polling points to a major mood swing among Ukrainians, suggesting that many have lost faith in Zelensky and would vote him out of office at the earliest opportunity. https://t.co/vXbR8ysjxD

— Foreign Policy (@ForeignPolicy) September 6, 2026

President Trump has long criticized certain elements of Zelensky's extended rule, even calling him out for resisting calls to hold new national elections, but more recently began to hail 'results' against Russia on the military front, given the persisting long-range drone program which has wreaked havoc on Russian energy infrastructure. 

But as the mainstream continues to 'turn' on Zelensky (and possibly the military too), and given more and more instances of a population 'mood swing' - how long does he have? The clock is ticking.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 05:45

'Deeply Shocked': Merz Speaks Of 'Consequences' After Historic CDU Defeat

via Remix News,

Germany's political establishment is still absorbing the shock of Sunday's state election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to 43.8 percent and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Chancellor Friedrich Merz crashed to 17.2 percent.

Merz called the result the CDU's "heaviest defeat" in decades and said it could not simply be treated as business as usual.

"And I have to admit, this is the heaviest electoral defeat that the CDU has suffered in years, in decades," Merz told reporters in Berlin after CDU leadership meetings. "We are all deeply shocked...We did not expect it to be like this."

"That does something to us. Including me personally... All of this will, of course, have to have consequences," he continued.

🇩🇪🔴BREAKING: Merz just said he is "deeply shocked" by the AfD's landslide victory.

"And I have to admit, this is the heaviest electoral defeat that the CDU has suffered in years, in decades."

"That does something to us. Including me personally... All of this will, of course,... pic.twitter.com/L4cycKdH6h

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 7, 2026

It remains unclear what those "consequences" will be exactly, as Merz did not clarify. However, he did point to two upcoming elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, which will be held in the next two weeks. If the CDU faces further routs, there may be pressure for Merz to step down.

He accepted the democratic verdict but insisted the outcome had changed the political landscape "not only in Saxony-Anhalt, but throughout Germany." When nearly 60 percent of voters backed parties that question the country's democratic institutions, he said, "that is an election result with which we can not just treat as business as usual."

Merz said he was searching for explanations, including in his own record: "What fear is there in the population that we may have underestimated?"

Merz has plans to hold talks in the coming days with SPD leaders on how the coalition could continue on its present course. "Giving up is not an option," he added.

Meanwhile, the AfD federal co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla pledged support for an AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt. Weidel called it a "dream result" and argued Merz had become "a great burden." She predicted the CDU/CSU would never again win a federal election and said the AfD's goal was to widen the gap to at least 40 percent by the next national vote. Chrupalla called the outcome "absolutely historic."

Merz's coalition partner, Bärbel Bas of the far-left Social Democrats (SPD), used her own press conference to argue that the government's language on work and welfare had itself fueled public anxiety.

Outgoing Minister-President Sven Schulze was blunt: the CDU no longer held a government mandate and would sit in opposition. He ruled out CDU defectors joining any AfD-led arrangement and predicted the BSW would help put an AfD in power.

AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund described the result as "a very clear government mandate" and said he could be "perhaps the next minister-president."

As Remix News reported, the AfD has a real opportunity to lead Saxony-Anhalt, but a number of scenarios could play out, including a coalition with BSW or even a snap election.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 05:00

The Exodus Continues... Britain's 3rd Largest Taxpayer Escapes To Greece

Britain’s highest taxpayers have been drifting offshore since the non-dom regime was scrapped in April 2025 and inheritance tax was extended to worldwide assets.

This shift is already visible on the Sunday Times lists: six of the 2026 Tax List’s top 100 (including Revolut’s Nik Storonsky) had left in the previous year, the compiler noted that one in nine names on that list were no longer UK-resident, and the companion Rich List dropped dozens of foreign billionaires while recording a sharp rise in British nationals now based in Dubai, Switzerland and Monaco.

But, the latest news is likely the most disturbing to the increasingly socialist government as the UK's 3rd largest taxpayer - hedge fund founder Chris Rokos - is set to leave.

 The star trader paid a stunning £330 million ($447 million) in taxes last year...

That's one hell of a hole for Burnham and his buddies to fill.

As Bloomberg reports, Rokos is the latest in a string of high-profile financiers and business leaders that have opted to leave.

Since winning the general election in 2024, Labour has targeted wealth with taxes on non-domiciled residents, inheritance on family farms and businesses, private equity and private school fees.

At her last budget, former chancellor Rachel Reeves introduced a tax on homes worth more than £2 million.

With a net worth of about $4 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Rokos is among the UK’s most prominent figures in finance.

The Rokos Capital Management founder is switching his residency to Greece, people with knowledge of the arrangement said.

Rokos will also open an office in Athens as part of the move, one of the people said, asking not to be identified because the details are private.

Greece offers a 15-year high-net-worth investor regime.

Italy operates a similar 15-year system, but after recent increases, it has set the flat tax at €300,000 on foreign-sourced income.

Greece has also sought to lure fund managers and private equity executives, adopting new tax rules this summer designed to prevent double taxation.

If the highest taxpayers keep leaving - as Rokos’s reported move to Greece underlines - Labour’s bet that abolishing non-doms and tightening inheritance tax would raise more money starts to look fragile, because a thin slice of people already supplies a large share of income-tax receipts.

The government then faces an awkward choice: accept a smaller tax base and tighter budgets, or raise rates on the mobile and immobile alike and risk accelerating the outflow it is trying to tax.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 04:15

Iran To Draw New "Restricted Zone" In Hormuz As Saudi Aramco Facility Hit Again, Oil Climbs

At a moment US officials have been boasting of more and more oil tankers making it through the Strait of Hormuz under US naval protection and support, Iran has previewed a new 'restricted zone' in the Gulf, which it says will be announced in the coming days.

The announcement is expected to include maps of the new shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, likely to begin from where the US blockade of Iran starts and extending into areas of the Gulf, according to Iran's Supreme National Security Council on Sunday.

Jizan Industrial Gas Complex

"The maps of a new international corridor which lies in Iranian and Omani waters and in which Iran will have management have been agreed and should be signed in the coming days," national security council official Mohsen Rezaei said.

"We will only commit to the Strait of Hormuz being open when they (the Americans) stop the sabotage, threats and attacks on Iran," he added. Per a Monday Bloomberg note:

Oil advances, with Brent futures trading above $97 a barrel, after US attacks on Iranian tankers and Tehran’s threat of a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas prices surge. Meanwhile, Ukraine is resigned to Russia’s war dragging on through another tough winter.

Also, in a latest Monday warning, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has put US energy firms on notice, saying they could be targeted if Iranian tankers continue to be attacked (following precisely a rare US airstrike on an Iranian civilian tanker).

According to Ghalibaf's words on X: "It's simple: the oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies across these waters and facilities share that exposure. Strike our assets and you get struck. We’ve already proven it. Ask the bases that are no longer viable."

Brent reaches high since July 23

The top Iranian negotiator also said in a weekend speech, "The Americans must have understood that the era of proportionate responses has come to an end," adding that "any aggression against Iran's interests and security will receive a faster, more intense and more painful response.”

Across the Gulf, the UAE is voicing its frustration, vowing to establish alternative energy routes:

The United Arab ​Emirates is building alternative routes for its energy exports and trade to ensure they are not "held ‌hostage" by the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said on Monday.

"Our energy exports will not be held hostage, nor will our trade and economic activity," Gargash ​said before the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi.

Meanwhile, not helping rising energy prices is fresh reporting out of Saudi Arabia of key oil facilities hit, likely by more Houthi attacks from neighboring Yemen.

"Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in the Saudi Arabian city of Jizan have been attacked only a month after a separate strike temporarily knocked out some production at its refinery," Financial Times reports. "The company’s oil infrastructure was hit on Monday and the damage was being assessed, said two people with knowledge of the matter."

Tehran continues to see itself as having the ability to leverage economic blowback against Washington...

It’s simple: the oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies across these waters and facilities share that exposure. Strike our assets and you get struck. We’ve already proven it. Ask the bases that are no longer viable. https://t.co/XiHAf6KzqV pic.twitter.com/0wBf40K4D3

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) September 7, 2026

Jizan provides a convenient targeting opportunity for the Houthis given its closeness to the Yemeni border as a significant Saudi industrial city. The Iran-linked group has not immediately claimed responsibility for any fresh attacks on the kingdom, however.

Bloomberg reports Monday, "The latest attack didn’t cause major damage, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential matters. The 400,000 barrel-a-day refinery remains shut following a strike in July, one of them said."

The Houthis have sought to impose a blockade on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports since July - and this has been coupled by sporadic major drone and missile attacks on Saudi oil sites. Ansar Allah is no doubt working in tandem with Tehran keep up the pressure on global energy markets.

Weekend & Overnight Developments

• US launched strikes against three Iranian crude oil tankers on Saturday, which destroyed one, in retaliation for the IRGC targeting US Navy warships with ballistic missiles.
• Iran’s navy said it targeted three oil tankers that were travelling through unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz and three additional US vessels in other areas.
• US President Trump said on Friday that they do intermittent strikes in Iran and that the Iran issue is a military conflict, while he added that they may hit Pickaxe Mountain very soon. Trump warned that if anything goes badly with Iran, they may hit them hard and have essentially taken over Iran. He also claimed there have been no shootings for days and there are no mines in the Strait.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said a nuclear deal with Iran may not be achievable in the near term and military action may be needed to address threats from Iran, according to ABC News.
• Iran's top security official Rezaei said Iran and Oman will sign agreed Strait of Hormuz passage maps in the coming days and that Iran will commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open when the US neither threatens Iran nor attacks it. Rezaei also stated that they will announce in the coming days and weeks a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz that starts from the US Navy's blockade line and extends through the strait into the Persian Gulf, and any ship identified entering this zone with the intention of passing through the strait will be added to the sanctions list. Furthermore, he said that Iran tested an Iranian anti-ship missile above a US warship for the first time and claimed the missile created 'hell' for the Americans 'and they fled'.
• Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf warned that Iran’s response to any attack against its interests and security would be faster, heavier and more painful.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry said the US-led war is disrupting global oil trade and costs, while it added that US aggression is causing instability in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Israeli military announced that it struck southern Lebanon after Hezbollah launched drones towards Israeli soldiers in the security zone. Israel's army also issued an evacuation warning to residents of a building in Deir Zahrani, southern Lebanon.
• Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich said PM Netanyahu ordered the evacuation of certain settlement outposts in the West Bank. It was separately reported that Israel conducted an airstrike on eastern Gaza City with four missiles.
• Joint statement by UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt Foreign Ministers strongly condemned statements made by Israel's National Security Minister Ben-Gvir and Defence Minister Katz regarding the displacement of Palestinians.
• Yemeni armed forces said they thwarted an attempt by Houthis to infiltrate the Dabab front, while they announced that warplanes struck Houthi positions in Balhaf and south of Hodeidah.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 04:00

Why Won't China Cut Ukraine Off From Drone-Related Sales?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Indefinitely perpetuating the Ukrainian Conflict through these means indefinitely delays the full implementation of the US' planned "Pivot (back) to (East) Asia", can lead to Russia selling its natural resource wealth to China at bargain-basement prices, and maintains China's "active neutrality".

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) referenced the EU's summertime disbursement of the first €1 billion to Ukraine for drone procurement out of the €6 billion promised for this program in an article late last month about how "Ukraine's Drone War Exposes An Uncomfortable Reliance On China". They drew attention to the carve-out allowing Ukraine to purchase Chinese parts with these funds, ergo the politically incorrect observation back then that "The EU Plans To Pay China To Help Ukraine Kill Russians".

RFE/RL reported that "While Kyiv has cut back on the purchase of ready-made drones from China, components such as motors, lithium batteries, and fiberoptics are still in high demand." Additionally, "In the first six months of 2026, imports of Chinese parts had already reached around 76 percent of the total recorded for the previous year." They also cited a Ukrainian report which claimed that "38 percent of the value of drone components imported by Ukraine in the first half of 2025 came from China."

The purpose of their piece appears to be to instill a sense of urgency in Ukraine and the West alike to radically ramp up domestic drone production in order to reduce what one of their cited experts described as Ukraine's "hostile interdependence" on China. They explained that "Beijing remains Kyiv's largest trading partner, while Ukraine is a key supplier of agricultural goods to China." That's true, and it's one of the reasons why China won't cut Ukraine off from drone-related sales, but there's more to it.

While Sino-Russo ties are better than at anytime in history, it was suspected as far back as early 2023 that "China Doesn't Want Anyone To Win In Ukraine", the reason being that a supposedly manageable forever war would indefinitely delay the full implementation of the US' planned "Pivot (back) to (East) Asia". Moreover, resource-rich Russia could become disproportionately dependent on China, thus leading to Moscow selling its natural wealth to Beijing at bargain-basement prices.

In pursuit of this cynical end, China has simultaneously played an irreplaceable role in providing Ukraine with drones, parts, and fiber optics (even if only indirectly through intermediaries like apologists have speculated) while serving as an irreplaceable valve from sanctions pressure for Russia. Ukraine is therefore able to keep pace with Russia's military-technical advancements, the Russian economy avoids the crisis that the West sought to catalyze through sanctions, and China maintains its "active neutrality".

The last point refers to China actively helping Ukraine and Russia, thus making it neutral in the sense of not taking either side. China financially profits from Ukraine's drone-related purchases, its economy continues growing due to the large-scale import of heavily discounted Russian energy, and it relatively reduces the overall Western pressure upon it by proving that it's not secretly "allied" with Russia. This policy, for whatever one might think about its merits, indisputably contributed to prolonging the conflict.

Had China cut Ukraine off from its drone-related sales in the spirit of its "no-limits" partnership with Russia that was declared several weeks before the start of special operation, then Russia might have attained more of its stated objectives in the conflict by now, if not outright achieved maximum victory. The US' military and intelligence support for Ukraine is more important than China's drone-related sales, but since there's no end to US support in sight, Russia should try to get China to finally cut Ukraine off.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 03:30

Europe's Auto Bloodbath Deepens: Jaguar Land Rover To Axe 4,000 Jobs After VW Targets 50,000 More Job Cuts

Europe's industrial base faces yet another setback, with Bloomberg reporting that Jaguar Land Rover plans to cut 4,000 jobs over the next two years. Britain's largest carmaker is confronting intensifying Chinese competition and adding to the broadening wave of planned and ongoing layoffs across European automakers.

The job cuts represent about 10% of Jaguar Land Rover's global workforce and is part of a $2.3 billion savings plan, Chief Executive Officer P B Balaji said Monday. The layoffs are not expected to begin immediately.

The workforce restructuring comes as the struggling automaker faces a sharp deterioration in earnings. Revenue fell 10% in the latest quarter, while pretax profit plunged 69% to 109 million pound sterling. 

On Monday, CEO P B Balaji said, "The automotive industry faces significant challenges, with technological change amidst intense competition and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty."

It's not just a BYD Motors invasion of Europe that is pressuring Jaguar Land Rover. As the Tata-owned automaker warned, pressures are developing from several directions. Higher tariffs have complicated business in the US, its largest market. A fire at a key parts supplier and disruption from the Middle East conflict have compounded the damage caused by the cyberattack.

In recent weeks, Europe's automotive industry has continued its death spiral, with news that Volkswagen pushed ahead with its plan to eliminate another 50,000 jobs, adding to soaring job losses across the industry.

A sustained downturn in Europe's automotive industry raises risks across the broader industrial base. Lower vehicle output would weaken demand for steel, aluminum, glass, chemicals, semiconductors, batteries, and other components, putting pressure on supplier margins and investment. If prolonged, that weakness could trigger additional production line closures and worker losses. That spiral appears to be already underway, eroding manufacturing capabilities that also support defense production.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 02:45

Greenland's Icecap Grew This Year

Authored by Paul Homewood via The Daily Sceptic,

Greenland's icecap is melting away thanks to global warming, at least that is what we are told. According to the EU's European State of the Climate 2025 Report, the ice sheet lost 139 Gt last year. They say that is equivalent to about 1.5 times the amount of ice stored in all the glaciers in the European Alps, and raised global mean sea level by 0.4 mm. (A gigatonne is one billion tonnes.) Since 1972, losses have amounted to 5,747 Gt. The rate of ice loss has increased by around five times since the 1980s and is expected to continue increasing beyond the end of the century.

These amounts sound terrifying, which is of course the object of the exercise - at least until you realise that at present rates it would take Greenland 27,000 years to melt away.

I am always suspicious when 'scientists' present trends since the 1970s, a time when the Earth had gone through three decades of cooling and there were genuine fears among both scientists and world leaders about the return of the Little Ice Age. I am even more suspicious when I discover that official data about the Greenland ice sheet is publicly available back to 1840.

In 2021, a peer-reviewed study calculated the annual changes in the ice sheet mass balance since 1840. (The heavy black line represents the net changes, which is of relevance to this discussion):

The graph confirms that the ice sheet has been losing mass since the 1980s. But crucially, we can see that the melting began around 1900. During the period 1920 to 1970, ice loss was running at similar levels to the last three decades - this is hardly surprising, as temperature records across Greenland show that it was just as 'warm' then as now. In between times, there was a sharp decline in temperatures in the 1970s and 80s.

In other words, this is not a new phenomenon, as we are expected to believe. It is part of a much longer process, which began long before so-called man-made global warming began.

Scientists have long established, with the help of ice cores and other evidence, that the 19th Century was probably the coldest era in Greenland since the Ice Age. During warm eras, such as the Middle Ages, Roman times and earlier millennia, the ice cap was smaller than it is now. Any reduction in the ice cap in the last century must be viewed as part of these longer-term cycles.

Ice mass data is still regularly published and provisional data is now available for the year ending August 2026 - Greenland ice data is normally presented by "hydro-year", September to August.

Since the 2021 study, ice loss has continued to slow down and is back to 1920s levels. The 2025/26 season actually saw a small increase of 6 Gt in ice mass. Greenland never really had a summer this year. Whereas the summer melt usually begins in early June, cold, snowy weather persisted well into July. As a result, summer melt was around 200 Gt less than normal.

It is worth noting that the poor summer in Greenland was part of the wider jet stream setup, which brought our hot summer. While we had a summer dominated by high-pressure systems, the rainy weather stayed out in the Atlantic, battering Greenland.

6 Gt is of course a tiny amount, given the massive uncertainty in how these things are calculated. There is no way to directly measure ice cap changes; instead, the numbers are calculated from computer models fed with data such as precipitation and temperature. The experts accept that they can often be wrong by as much as 100 Gt.

Nevertheless, it is abundantly clear that Greenland's icecap is doing just fine. It is still much larger than it has been for most of the last 10,000 years and, if it is shrinking at all, it is doing so no faster than a century ago.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 02:00

Asia Leads Global Value Rotation On Chip Woes

By Abishek Vishnoi, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

A rotation from growth to value stocks is more pronounced in Asia than anywhere else globally, as doubts grow over the chip rally’s staying power.

MSCI’s gauge for value stocks in Asia Pacific has risen about 6% this quarter, compared with a 2% drop in its growth counterpart, on track for its biggest outperformance since January-March 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gap is wider than the swings in the US and Europe over the period.

The divergence shows how Asia’s growth trade had come to rely on a handful of chip stocks, with their reversal now prompting investors to look for cheaper options. Asian value stocks remain inexpensive relative to both growth shares and global peers. A nearly 20% weighting of financials in the regional gauge offers another potential tailwind from higher yields.

“The value rotation in Asia is set to expand and extend as semiconductor’s downtrend is not yet finished,” said Hao Hong, chief investment officer at hedge fund Lotus Asset Management in Hong Kong. “The market has clearly entered a new phase as funds will favor those names with solid growth and track records.”

Value stocks in Asia are trading at 10.8 times their one-year forward earnings estimates, compared with 17.9 times for the US and 12.3 times for Europe, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The multiple for Asian growth stocks is 13.

A rise in bond yields across major markets can potentially support bank earnings by widening lending spreads. That gives the region’s value trade an additional earnings lever at a time when higher yields and Federal Reserve rate-hike bets are putting pressure on long-duration growth stocks.

MSCI’s financials gauge has climbed 12% in Asia this quarter, while information technology, which comprises about a third of the regional index, is down 5.6%. It was dragged by a recent selloff in some of the global best performers of the past year, including SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. Among value stocks, Genscript Biotech Corp. has surged more than 150% this quarter in Hong Kong.

More recently, value has been Asia’s best-performing investment style even on a long-short basis. The strategy buying cheap stocks and shorting expensive ones returned about 1% over one week ending Sept. 5, while growth was the worst performer with a negative return of -1.3%.

“The encouraging story is the valuation gap and regional stickiness as Asian value stocks remain cheap relative to global peers, giving investors both a defensive buffer today and a coiled spring for when risk appetite rebuilds,” said Hebe Chen, a senior market analyst at Vantage Global Prime in Sydney. “And in Asia, when the tide turns, it rarely walks — it runs.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 23:34

Prolific Recruiter Of Teenage Suicide Bombers Earns US Sanctions Relief, Days Before 9/11 Anniversary

Authored by Max Blumenthal via The GrayZone

As the US prepares to mark 25 years since Sept. 11, 2001, Donald Trump has removed top Al Qaeda figures from the US list of designated terrorists. Among those he delisted was Abdullah Muhaysini, a Saudi cleric who recruited child fighters and teen suicide bombers to wreak havoc across Syria.

The Trump administration has removed the names of some of the world’s most notorious commanders, recruiters and financiers for the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda from its list of specially designated terrorists. Among those relieved of US sanctions this August was Abdullah Muhaysini, a Salafi-jihadi cleric from Saudi Arabia who participated in videotaped massacres of captive soldiers and recruited droves of foreign youth to carry out suicide bombings throughout Syria over the past decade.

The delisting of the jihadist recruiters came as part of the Trump administration’s removal of the government of Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa as a State Sponsor of Terrorists. “These actions represent another historic step by President Trump to give the Syrian people a path to prosperity,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared on August 24, 2026.

Formerly known as Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, Al-Sharaa is the co-founder of ISIS and founder of Jabhat Al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda. Under the guidance of Western advisors, Al-Sharaa rebranded Al-Nusra as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, before he toppled the government of President Bashar Al-Assad in December 2024.

By the time he seized power, Al-Sharaa had been groomed by his NATO handlers as a reliable local enforcer. When Trump hosted Al-Sharaa in the Oval Office in November 2025, playfully misting him with Trump Cologne and asking how many wives he had, it was clear the US was ready to lift the sanctions that had devastated Syria’s economy. Two months later, Trump pitched a half-baked plan for the Syrian military to attack Iran. Washington had finally found its man in Damascus.

This August, the Trump administration went a step further, lifting sanctions on Al Qaeda propagandists, funders and fighters responsible for gruesome atrocities during the dirty war on Syria. These figures include Abu Sulayman al-Muhajir, a top Al Qaeda recruiter in Australia who fled to Syria; Shafi Sultan Mohammed al-Ajmi, a major Kuwaiti financier of Al-Nusra; and Abdul Samrez Jashari, an Albanian foreign fighter who has taken on a senior role in Syria’s military under Al-Sharaa.

Here's President Trump spraying Al-Sharaa with his cologne, asking him how many wives he has..at the Oval Office. pic.twitter.com/ojFHEIZmmT

— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress) November 12, 2025

Perhaps none of the Al Qaeda bandits who received sanctions relief from the Trump administration oversaw as many acts of sadistic violence as the Saudi-born, Turkish-backed cleric Abdullah Muhaysini.

Prolific recruiter of teenage suicide bombers earns sanctions relief from Trump

In 2015, Muhaysini was filmed in camouflaged battle dress uniform, glowering over a group of blindfolded, exhausted Syrian army regulars taken captive at an airbase in Syria’s Idlib province. In a videotaped message, he justified massacring them in cold blood because, despite being Sunni Muslims, they had fought for Syria’s secular government.

“I don’t like to call them Sunni,” Muhaysini declared. “They were once Sunni but became apostatized once they enlisted in the Alawites’ regime.” Moments later, the 56 men were lined up and riddled with bullets.

Office of Foreign Assets Control

Muhaysini studied under Sulayman Al-Alwan, the Wahhabi cleric who oversaw what his Muslim critics have called a “terrorist factory” in Saudi Arabia’s Al-Qassim Province. Al-Alwan also happened to be the instructor of the 9/11 hijacker Abdulaziz Alomari.

As The Grayzone reported, Muhaysini recruited thousands of young men as fighters and suicide bombers, promising them heavenly deliverance for sacrificing their lives in attacks on government targets. The foreign demagogue managed to find time for televised sermons counseling followers on when it was appropriate to beat their wives, while urging them to kill Shias and members of other minority groups wherever they found them across Syria.

Abdullah Muhaysini blessing the massacre of 56 captive Syrian soldiers at Abu-Dhuhur Air Base, 2015

After moving to Syria in 2014, Muhaysini embedded himself among the rebels’ most powerful factions and worked to unite them under a single banner. At first, he helped cobble together the coalition known as Jaish al-Fatah, or the Army of Conquest. (The Trump administration has lifted sanctions on a successor group to Jaish al-Fatah as part of its delisting of Al-Sharaa’s HTS).

Through his connections with wealthy Salafis in the Gulf states, Muhaysini organized the “wage jihad with your money” fundraising effort that raised some $5 million for the armed opposition’s push to take the northern Idlib governate from the Syrian army in 2015.

In an online interview, Muhaysini thanked “a group of brothers in Islam from Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), some from our brother Abu Ahmed from Kuwait, some from our brother Abu Joud from Qatar.”

Muhaysni congratulates mother of a boy he is about to send on a suicide mission in #Aleppo & assures her he will get his virgins 😂 #Syria pic.twitter.com/p4XQKsphSy

— Ibn Walid (@walid970721) October 29, 2016

In 2018, Muhaysini’s Jihad Caller’s Network recruited child fighters inside the Atmeh Refugee Camp on the Syrian-Turkish border, a squalid redoubt for some 30,000 war victims, handing the adolescent volunteers rifles before trucking them off to Idlib and elsewhere. (Video of the child soldier recruitment drive has been removed from the internet). Earlier programs on the cleric’s network featured small children training for combat.

On December 12, 2024, days after Al-Sharaa’s forces stormed into Damascus following the collapse of Assad’s government, Muhaysini materialized again in Damascus. From inside the Umayyad Mosque, the Al Qaeda propagandist proclaimed, “I truly believe that in Paradise there are entire villages for the people of the Levant.”

A young boy trains for combat on Muhaysini’s Jihad Caller's Center

Almost two years later, Muhaysini received another blessing. One day after Trump announced plans to skip the ceremony memorializing the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks at New York City’s Ground Zero, his administration lifted sanctions on Muhaysini and his closest partners in crime.

They might have once been designated terrorists who joined the organization credited with bringing down the Twin Towers. But now, they’re officially our terrorists.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 23:25

Rise Of The Machines: China's Military Prepares Humanoid Robots For Combat

At the start of the year, we warned about the prospect of humanoid robots moving beyond factory floors and into military operations.

China's World Humanoid Robot Games last month showcased advances in robotic speed and mobility, while reports of Beijing's expanding military research suggest preparations for eventual battlefield deployment are gathering pace. The prospect of humanoids operating alongside troops and one-way attack drones presents an unsettling new view of warfare's next phase: the rise of the machines.

China’s humanoid robots are crashing, falling—and pushing the future forward.

At this year’s robot games, some humanoids have slammed into walls or fallen halfway through races, leaving many asking: Are these robots disposable? And what’s the point of making them run so fast?…

— China pulse 🇨🇳 (@Eng_china5) August 23, 2026

Reuters published a new report on Monday that said:

China's defense establishment is accelerating research into humanoids' military uses and planning for their eventual wartime deployment, according to a Reuters review of more than 100 Chinese military procurement notices, academic studies, patents, official publications, government records and defense-company materials.

While the world marveled at China's World Humanoid Robot Games, which showcased robots sprinting, jumping, dancing, and participating in sporting events, the Chinese military urged researchers to accelerate the transfer of advanced technologies from laboratories to military training grounds for robotic "combatants."

China is testing humanoid robots for jobs far beyond factories.

At the World Robot Conference in Beijing China Ordnance is showing its Fuxi humanoid robotdesigned for security and emergency response tasks. https://t.co/8YptW2f50R pic.twitter.com/zv3PzBNtCa

— Techniahqrobot | humanoid robots (@techniahqrobot) August 18, 2026

China's largest robotics company, Unitree, published a video on X on Monday morning showcasing "Fully Autonomous Humanoid Robot Combat."

Unitree Breakthrough: The World’s First Real-Time World Model-Driven Fully Autonomous Humanoid Robot Combat🥊
UnifoLM-X2-1.0 breaks through world-action foundation models' bottlenecks in instant planning, decision-making, and dynamic interactive execution, achieve high dynamics,… pic.twitter.com/xqAodjuD1m

— Unitree (@UnitreeRobotics) September 7, 2026

We reported on February 2 that "humanoid warfare nears," and a TIME magazine article in early March later confirmed our report about the American humanoid robotics company Foundation testing its robots for war.

Then, in July, we reported:

• Ukraine Plans To Hyper-Innovate Humanoid Robot Soldiers

And in mid-August:

• Humanoid War Robots Could Soon Patrol US Southern Border To Combat Weaponized Migrant Flows

The prospect of "Skynet-like" warfare is becoming more real by the week as humanoid robotics advances alongside one-way attack drones, unmanned ground vehicles, and increasingly automated kill chains. If integrated at scale, these robots could further accelerate the shift to an automated modern battlefield.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 22:50

Central Asia Is Escaping The 'Backyard' Label

Authored by Ziaulhaq Tanin via RealClearWorld,

Three decades after their independence, Central Asia is still often viewed through outdated geopolitical lenses - a region once called "Russia's backyard" and more recently as an arena of competition among Russia, China, and the West. Yet this familiar narrative no longer captures the region's strategic reality. Central Asian states are increasingly using great-power rivalry not simply to navigate external pressure, but to expand their own choices and strategic room for maneuver.

This transformation is driven not by a single event but by the convergence of several trends: the war in Ukraine, new connectivity corridors, China's growing role, deeper engagement of Europe, Türkiye, and the Gulf states, and regional efforts to reduce dependence on a single power. Together, these developments are reshaping the traditional framework of regional politics and creating new space for Central Asia to redefine its position.

The central question is no longer who will dominate Central Asia, but whether its states can turn this changing geopolitical environment into greater strategic autonomy. This article argues that the region is moving from the logic of "backyard" toward that of a "crossroads" - a transition shaped not by the departure of major powers, but by the growing agency of Central Asia itself.

The Ukraine War and the End of Geopolitical Monopoly

For decades, Central Asia was viewed largely through the lens of Russian influence. The legacy of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union created deep security, economic, and cultural ties between Moscow and the region - ties that endured after independence through institutions such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Yet today's transformation does not reflect the collapse of these connections; it marks the end of an era in which a single power could define Central Asia's strategic trajectory.

The war in Ukraine did not initiate this shift, but it accelerated existing trends. Even before 2022, regional states were diversifying foreign relations, reducing traditional dependencies, and seeking alternative routes of connectivity. The war exposed more clearly the risks of relying on a single partner or corridor, prompting governments to reshape their security, trade, and connectivity policies around a wider range of options.

For years, Central Asia faced a geopolitical paradox: despite its central position in Eurasia, access to the global economy depended largely on Soviet-era networks. These historical, infrastructural, economic, and security links reinforced Russia's position as the region's dominant external actor.

The war did not dismantle this structure, but it revealed the costs of dependence on traditional routes. Western sanctions on Russia and disruptions to established trade corridors pushed regional governments to pursue alternatives. The central question became whether its geography would remain a historical constraint or become a source of strategic choice.

This shift is most visible in the growing importance of the Middle Corridor, linking China and Europe through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye. More than a trade route, it offers alternative to Soviet-era connectivity and allows Central Asian states to turn geography into a strategic asset. Kazakhstan, with its location and natural resources, stands at the center of this transformation, illustrating how the region is increasingly using great-power competition to expand its own choices.

At the same time, competition around Central Asia has broadened. China has expanded its presence through investment and infrastructure, Russia remains a security actor, while the West, Türkiye, and Gulf states have strengthened their roles in energy, trade, and strategic resources. The wider external engagement has increased regional room for maneuver, but it has also made balancing competing interests more demanding.

From Balance of Power to Balance of Options

In Central Asia, independence has never meant complete freedom from great-power influence. Geography, history, and economic ties have made such separation unrealistic. The challenge has therefore not been to sever these ties, but to prevent any single partnership from becoming source of decisive dependency. In this context, independence is increasingly defined not by distance from any power, but by the ability to preserve multiple options and manage competing relationships.

This shift is evident in the foreign policy of Central Asian states. Rather than choosing between major powers, they are using the simultaneous presence of different actors to expand their strategic room for maneuver. This is a form of practical autonomy: not on isolation from great powers, but the ability to engage with several partners at once.

The region's transformation also extends beyond the traditional Russia - China - West triangle. Gulf states have become increasingly active in Central Asia through investments in energy, infrastructure, transport, mining, and trade, with the United Arab Emirates emerging as an important partner in renewable energy, logistics, and infrastructure projects. For the Central Asian states, these ties offer opportunities to diversify economic partnerships and attract new investment; for Gulf countries, the region's strategic location and role in the emerging Eurasian connectivity routes have made it increasingly important.

Kazakhstan is a prominent example of this approach. Despite its long border with Russia and deep historical ties to Moscow, Astana has expanded its economic ties with China while strengthening cooperation with Europe and other partners. Its goal is not to replace one partner with another, but to maintain diversified relationships to increase strategic flexibility and reduces overdependence on any single power.

Uzbekistan has followed a similar path since 2016, gradually opening its economy and pursuing a more active regional diplomacy. Tashkent's has sought to broaden cooperation with multiple partners including Russia, China, Europe, and the United States while increasing its strategic flexibility.

The experience of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan shows that Central Asia's transformation is not only a result of changing great-power behavior. It also depends on whether regional states can turn this evolving geopolitical space into bargaining power.

Beyond Geopolitics: The Return of Identity

For decades, Central Asia was largely defined by narratives shaped outside the region itself - from the legacy of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union to contemporary perspectives based on great-power competition. Today, however, regional states are increasingly seeking to define their history and place in the world beyond the lens of external powers. This shift shows that the struggle over Central Asia's position is not taking place only through trade routes and security calculations; it is also unfolding at the level of the historical and political identity.

Central Asia's departure from the logic of "backyard" is visible not only in the change in its foreign ties, but also in efforts by regional states to redefine their historical standing. Since independence - and especially in recent years - the Central Asian states have gradually tried to adjust their national narratives beyond the frameworks left over from the Soviet era.

From Tajikistan's emphasis on its Persian heritage, to strengthening cultural ties among Turkic-speaking states, and Uzbekistan's renewed engagement with its historical past, this trend shows that the competition over the region's future is not limited to economics and security. It is also a competition over narratives, and identity. Ultimately, it shows that Central Asian states are trying to define their status based on historical experience and their own interests.

Central Asia's Future: Sphere of Influence or Hub of Connectivity?

For decades, Central Asia's geography was seen as a constraint - a region caught between great powers, whit its security, economic, and connectivity shaped largely by external interests. Today, that same geography is becoming a strategic asset, expanding the region's choices and influence.

Central Asian governments are no longer merely adapting to geopolitical changes; they are using it to widen their strategic options. More diverse partnerships and new connectivity corridors have expanded their diplomatic flexibility.

Great-power competition has not disappeared. Russia remains the principal security actor, China the leading economic partner, while west, Türkiye and the Gulf states continue expanding their presence. What has changed is that no single relationship can define the region's future. Geography alone is insufficient; without stronger institutions and independent decision-making, new routes of connectivity could simply produce new form of dependence.

Ultimately, Central Asia's transformation is not about replacing one dominant power with another, but about expanding regional agency. Russia, China, and other actors will remain influential, yet no single power is likely to define the region's future alone. The region's states are turning geography into leverage - not to escape power competition, but to shape the conditions in which they have more choices.

Ziaulhaq Tanin is a University lecturer, researcher, and analyst specializing in international security, regionalism, and foreign policy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 22:15

Japan's NEC Halts Quantum Computer Project After Decades Of Research

NEC has ended its effort to develop a working quantum computer, reportedly deciding that the project would take too long to deliver an acceptable return on investment, according to a new report by Nikkei.

The move represents a significant change in direction for a company that has been involved in quantum computing research for more than three decades.

NEC was among the earliest companies to pursue the technology, beginning its research in the 1990s and achieving a major breakthrough in 1999 with the first demonstration of superconducting qubits. Those qubits remain one of the principal approaches used in quantum computer development today. Despite that early lead, NEC discontinued work on its own physical quantum computer at the end of March.

Nikkei reported that the company will continue pursuing quantum-related technologies and services, including quantum annealing, which is used to find efficient solutions to complex optimization problems. NEC also plans to expand services that use conventional computers to simulate quantum computing.

The shift suggests that management sees a more immediate commercial opportunity in applying quantum-related techniques than in funding the lengthy and expensive development of its own hardware.

NEC’s retreat comes as other major players continue investing heavily in the field. IBM and Google remain prominent competitors in the United States, while China is advancing quantum computing through coordinated public- and private-sector efforts.

In Japan, Fujitsu is continuing its research and signed an agreement in August with an Australian university and government research institution to collaborate on quantum-related projects.

The industry has nevertheless made meaningful technical progress over the past two to three years. Google’s Willow processor, introduced in 2024, demonstrated that error rates could decline as additional qubits were added, an important step toward building larger and more reliable systems.

Microsoft and Quantinuum have also reported advances in error correction, while Amazon’s Ocelot prototype, unveiled in 2025, was designed to reduce the hardware required to produce reliable logical qubits. Increasingly, the challenge is not simply to build machines with more qubits, but to make those qubits stable enough to perform useful calculations.

That progress has yet to resolve the commercial question. IBM’s experimental Loon chip, unveiled in November 2025, forms part of its effort to develop a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, while Google reported another quantum-advantage demonstration in October.

Such milestones show that the technology is advancing, but they do not establish when quantum computers will become broadly useful or economically viable. NEC’s decision therefore illustrates the distinction between scientific progress and investment returns: the industry may be moving forward, but the timetable for turning those advances into a profitable business remains uncertain.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 21:40

China's Provinces Show Evidence Of Financial Pressure And The Economy's Imbalances

Authored by Milton Ezrati via The Epoch Times,

Some 28 provinces and separate jurisdictions increasingly have had to turn to Beijing for help closing budget gaps, according to China's Ministry of Finance.

People walk next to a screen with a stocks indicator in the Jing'an district in Shanghai, China, on April 7, 2025. Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images

It is not unusual for Beijing to have to chip in. It gets the lion's share of the country's tax revenues. But the growing need to turn to Beijing nonetheless points to the economy's imbalances and other problems.

Some transfers from Beijing have occurred since the country's tax-sharing reforms were implemented in the 1990s. Beijing gets all income tax revenues from both individuals and companies, all securities trading levies, and all customs duties.

Provinces and like entities must depend almost entirely on deed and land appreciation taxes. Even during the boom years of property development, some provinces needed help. Few had what the Chinese call budgetary "self-sufficiency ratios" at 100 percent.

Outlining the most recent data from this year's first quarter, the deputy director general of the finance ministry's budget department, Tang Zaifu, downplayed the troubling direction of provincial finances. The figures, however, make clear that self-sufficiency has deteriorated and dependency has grown.

Now, Beijing must cover half the budget needs of the 22 provinces under its control and an additional five separate jurisdictions. (Beijing claims 23 provinces, but one, Taiwan, manages its own budget and obviously is not subject to the People's Republic of China's governance.)

The needs of this large number of jurisdictions vary greatly. It is significant, however, that even Shanghai - one of the country's richest areas - failed to meet its own budget needs during this year's opening quarter - this for the first time since the pandemic.

Some areas have done comparatively well. Zhejiang, for instance, managed a self-sufficiency ratio of just over 96 percent. Other rich areas, such as Shandong and Guangdong provinces, showed self-sufficiency ratios exceeding 70 percent.

Other areas did less well, a lot less well. Filling all the budget gaps will cost Beijing some 10.5 trillion yuan, more than a third of the government's entire budget.

Though arcane in many respects, these budget needs and burdens offer yet other perspectives on the imbalances in China's economy and finances.

The first point that becomes clear is how much China's economic reality has changed since the still-prevailing budget reform rules of the 1990s. Those revenue-sharing arrangements, implicitly dependent on a booming property development sector, are simply no longer viable. The still-ongoing property crisis has thoroughly reordered the economy.

These budget figures also point, albeit obliquely, to how narrowly focused China's economy has become. The only reliable growth lies in the mostly high-technology sectors favored by Beijing's "Made in China 2025" program.

Broad-based development has received short shrift, including the Chinese consumer and investments in other, mostly privately owned sectors, making China's economy narrower and more export-dependent than ever.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 21:05

This Labor Day Take A Closer Look At America's Deadliest Jobs, Ranked

Labor Day is a time to recognize the contributions of American workers, but it also draws attention to the risks many face on the job.

Logging was the most dangerous occupation in America in 2024, with 110.4 fatal work injuries per 100,000 full time equivalent workers, more than 33 times the national rate of 3.3, according to a new study by Moneygeek.

Fishing and hunting workers ranked second at 88.8, followed by roofers at 48.7, structural iron and steel workers at 37.8, and refuse and recyclable collectors at 37.4. Each of the five occupations had a fatality rate at least 11 times the national average, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries.

The Labor Day reminder is especially stark when looking at the national toll. A total of 5,070 workers died from job related injuries in 2024, equivalent to one death every 104 minutes. That was a 4% decline from 5,283 deaths in 2023 and marked the second consecutive annual decrease. The national fatality rate also fell from 3.7 per 100,000 workers in 2022 to 3.5 in 2023 and 3.3 in 2024.

The occupations with the highest fatality rates are not necessarily those with the most deaths. Logging recorded 51 fatalities, while driver/sales workers and truck drivers accounted for 950, the largest total of any occupation, despite a substantially lower rate of 25.7 per 100,000.

Moneygeek wrote that construction laborers recorded 334 deaths at a rate of 15.8. The difference reflects workforce size, since a smaller occupation can carry a much greater risk per worker without producing the largest number of fatalities.

The dangers also vary considerably by occupation. Contact with objects and equipment accounted for 40 of the 51 logging deaths, while falls, slips and trips caused 83 of the 104 roofing fatalities.

Transportation incidents were the leading cause in several other high risk occupations, including truck driving, fishing, refuse collection and grounds maintenance. Nationwide, transportation incidents caused 1,937 fatal work injuries, representing 38.2% of all workplace deaths.

The data also highlights the growing toll among older workers. Workers age 65 and older recorded 824 fatal work injuries in 2024, a five year high and a 21.9% increase from 2020. Their share of all workplace deaths rose from 14.2% to 16.3% over that period.

The under 25 group also saw a 19.3% increase, while workers ages 55 to 64 were the only age group to record a decline.

Fatality risk and nonfatal injury rates tell different stories. Forestry and logging had a nonfatal injury rate of 1.3 per 100 workers, below the private industry average of 2.3, despite logging’s exceptionally high fatality rate.

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction showed a similar contrast, with a nonfatal rate of 1.2. Waste collection and transportation and warehousing, meanwhile, recorded higher nonfatal injury rates of 4.7 and 4.4, respectively. The figures show that the jobs with the greatest risk of death are not always those reporting the most nonfatal injuries.

Workplace risk also varies by state. Wyoming had the highest fatality rate in 2024 at 13.9 deaths per 100,000 workers, followed by Mississippi at 8.0, Alaska at 7.1 and North Dakota at 6.8. Rhode Island had the lowest rate at 1.1, while Texas stood above the national average at 3.9. These differences reflect where hazardous industries and work activities are concentrated rather than where workers permanently reside.

For workers in dangerous occupations, the risks highlighted by Labor Day can also raise questions about financial protection for their families. A hazardous job does not automatically prevent someone from obtaining life insurance.

According to Ethos Chief Underwriter Nichole Myers, underwriting focuses on the specific activities a worker performs, such as working at heights or operating heavy machinery, rather than relying solely on a job title. Ethos reports that approximately 86% of applicants in dangerous job categories are approved for coverage, close to its overall approval rate.

Occupational risk may affect how an application is evaluated, but it does not necessarily make coverage unavailable.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 20:30