Zero Rss

Another Ukrainian Drone Wave On Moscow Temporarily Shuts Down All Four Capital Airports

Yet another major Ukrainian drone attack wave on Moscow has shut down all regional airports, and sent parts of the capital city into temporary panic, and involved dozens of drones shot down overnight. Over 80 drones were intercepted in the past 24 hours, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced Monday on Telegram.

He didn't offer numbers in terms of casualties or damage, but emergency services were dispatched to several areas, given there was debris fallout and key neighborhoods impacted.

Image source: Astra

Across Russia more broadly, hundreds of drones were reportedly downed overnigh, but most of the attacks seemed concentrated on the Moscow area.

The Moscow Times reports of the Moscow region's four commercial flight hubs, "Civil aviation authorities said operations at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports were suspended during the multi-hour attack for safety reasons. The flight restrictions were lifted later in the morning."

Much of the information on strike targets in Russia have come through Telegram and social media channels, and have remained unconfirmed on an official level, but various videos suggest a very large-scale attack.

For example, Sky News reports that "Another post claimed a factory producing electronics for Russian missiles had been struck in Voronezh, more than 100 miles from Ukraine."

All Moscow airports have been closed down due to drone attacks.

There are huge crowds as over 150 flights have been delayed or canceled. pic.twitter.com/lbngWIsBbw

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 22, 2026

Meanwhile, Ukraine has also suffered significant damage and losses - including reports that a Russian drone killed three members of one family, among the victims ⁠a 13-year-old boy, in ⁠Ukraine’s northern ​Sumy ‌region, as cited in Reuters.

President Zelensky commented, "Yet today, Russia began this day not by honoring those who fell in World War II, and not with signals that could help bring the current war – Russia’s war against Ukraine – closer to an end. Instead, it began with more completely unjustifiable killings."

“This Russian war has no justifiable cause. Putin was driven by exactly the same motives as the aggressors who came before him. He shows the same contempt for human life. He is just as delusional about this absurd ‘empire’ of his that nobody needs. This war must be brought to an end.”

Ukraine has been escalating the aerial drone war - seeking to impose a high cost on Russia's industrial and military base - even as it continues to suffer serious manpower shortages along the front lines in the east...

What do you do when you are short of Patriots?
You do this to your enemy’s factory making electronics for ballistic missiles.
Hit the arrow-maker, not the arrow. Voronezh, Russia, today. pic.twitter.com/gqTp5QIMAd

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) June 22, 2026

Zelensky has also again vowed to bring the war to Russia - and in particular it has been rare massive attacks on Moscow which have been particularly devastating. Key energy sites have continued to be pummeled.

The end of last week saw one of the biggest single drone waves on Moscow, after which Russia has vowed to carry out frequent and "massive group strikes" against Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 14:25

Nursing School Owner Pleads Guilty After Issuing Nearly 3,000 Fake Diplomas

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Carleen Noreus, who owned two nursing schools in South Florida, has pleaded guilty to her role in a scheme that sold nearly 3,000 fraudulent nursing diplomas, the Department of Justice (DOJ) said in a June 18 statement.

A person receives a vaccine in Los Angeles, in this file photograph. Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

The defendant, 52, from Plantation, Florida, was president of the Carleen Home Health School Inc. in Plantation and vice president of Carleen Home Health School II Inc. in West Palm Beach.

"Noreus conspired with others to sell fraudulent nursing diplomas and educational transcripts to individuals who had not completed the required coursework or clinical training to earn Registered Nurse (RN), Licensed Practical Nurse/Vocational Nurse (LPN/VN), or Bachelor of Science in Nursing (BSN) credentials," the DOJ said.

"The fraudulent diplomas and transcripts falsely represented that purchasers had successfully completed the academic and clinical requirements of the schools when, in reality, they had not."

The documents allowed the buyers to take part in national nursing board examinations. Those who passed the exams obtained nursing licenses and employment in the healthcare sector.

In total, Noreus provided 2,956 fraudulent nursing diplomas through her two schools between April 17, 2018, and Oct. 8, 2025. Of the individuals who obtained fake credentials, roughly 2,274 passed the nursing exams, secured licenses, and gained employment in Florida and other parts of the United States. Both institutions have been shut down by state authorities.

The case is part of the second phase of Operation Nightingale, a multi-state law enforcement action launched in January 2023 to arrest individuals who sell fraudulent nursing degree diplomas and transcripts.

The operation led to 25 individuals being charged for the fraud scheme in January 2023. In a Jan. 25, 2023, statement, the DOJ said that more than 7,600 fake nursing diplomas were issued by three nursing schools in South Florida.

On Sept. 15, 2025, the DOJ said that 30 defendants were charged and convicted in 2023 as part of the operation. In addition, the department also announced charges against 12 people in phase two of Operation Nightingale.

Thirteen individuals have been charged in the second phase, including Noreus, the DOJ said in its latest statement. Noreus, who pleaded guilty to conspiracy to launder money and conspiracy to commit wire fraud, faces a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison for each count.

"Nursing licenses must be earned through education, training, and demonstrated competence, not purchased through fraud," said U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida Jason A. Reding Quiñones.

"By selling thousands of fraudulent diplomas and transcripts, the defendant undermined the integrity of the nursing profession and our healthcare system. The Southern District of Florida remains committed to holding accountable those who profit by corrupting professional licensing processes and placing the public at risk."

Earlier this year, a Maryland man was sentenced to 21 months in federal prison in another case of nursing credential fraud, according to a DOJ statement issued on April 24.

The person sold fake documents in the name of a Virginia nursing school, which falsely affirmed that buyers had completed the required courses and training at the institution to secure nursing degrees. The individual also sold fraudulent nursing degrees from a Florida-based nursing school.

Nursing Shortage

The country's nursing workforce is projected to face a shortage in the coming years, according to a December 2025 report from the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis.

"At the national level, there are shortages projected until 2038. Specifically, there is a projected 8 percent shortage of registered nurses (RNs) in 2028. By 2038, the shortage is 3 percent (a shortage of 108,960 full-time equivalent [FTE] RNs)," the report stated.

"Nonmetro areas are projected to have a higher shortage of RNs than metro areas in each of the three interval years: 11 percent vs 2 percent in 2038, 18 percent vs 4 percent in 2033, and 24 percent vs 5 percent in 2028."

However, National Nurses United (NNU), a professional association of registered nurses with over 225,000 members nationwide, dismissed claims of shortages in a May 26 statement.

An analysis conducted by the group found that almost 1.15 million registered nurses in the country with active licenses were not working as nurses, the statement said.

NNU president Jamie Brown said the U.S. nursing sector is facing a "retention crisis" rather than a shortage, blaming "unsafe and unsustainable" working conditions for driving many nurses away from their jobs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 14:05

Trump Renews Threat Of Legal Action To New York Times Over Iran Coverage

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times,

U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his threat of legal action against The New York Times on June 21, accusing the newspaper of publishing "treasonous" coverage that downplayed the impact of the nearly four-month war with Iran.

The New York Times Building in New York City on Feb. 5, 2024.Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

"I will be adding all of their false and ridiculous reporting to my multi Billion Dollar lawsuit against them. They are Criminals," Trump wrote in a June 21 post on Truth Social.

"The headline in the Corrupt and Failing New York Times: 'What Changed After Almost 4 Months of War? Analysts Say Not Much.' REALLY?" Trump wrote in a separate post.

"Their Military is DONE, their Navy is GONE, their Air Force is GONE, their Launching Pads, Missiles, Drones and Manufacturing of same, is almost GONE, their top two sets of Leaders are GONE, their Inflation is at 250%, their Economy is BROKEN, their Soldiers aren't being paid, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN, THE OIL IS GUSHING, and the U.S. Stock Market and Jobs are at record HIGHS," he added.

The Epoch Times contacted the NY Times for comment but did not hear back by publication time.

In another post, Trump included a screenshot of an X post from Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who also criticized the NY Times.

"To say nothing has changed after Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury is an insult to our men and women in uniform." Graham wrote in the post.

"To say nothing has changed denies the devastation to the Iranian economy created by the blockade and other economic pressures applied by President Trump.

"This analysis by the New York Times says more about their bias against President Trump than it does the undeniable facts about the state of play in Iran."

The NY Times piece published on June 21 said that "roughly 100 days later, as the United States and Iran have reached a somewhat vague memorandum of understanding to end the war, skeptics are expressing bafflement over what exactly has transformed."

"Neither the war nor the agreement ended what U.S. and Israeli officials regard as the main threats emanating from Iran. The country's nuclear program, while heavily damaged, was not eliminated - its fate punted to future negotiation," it added.

Prior Lawsuit

In September 2025, Trump filed the $15 billion lawsuit against the NY Times and its reporters, accusing the newspaper of defamation.

Trump filed the lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Florida over articles and a book written by two NY Times reporters and published during the height of the 2024 election, alleging that they were crafted with "actual malice, calculated to inflict maximum damage" on him.

"Defendants maliciously published the book and the articles knowing that these publications were filled with repugnant distortions and fabrications about President Trump," the lawsuit reads.

A spokesperson for the NY Times at the time said the lawsuit "has no merit," calling it an attempt by the president to "stifle and discourage independent reporting."

"The New York Times will not be deterred by intimidation tactics. We will continue to pursue the facts without fear or favor and stand up for journalists' First Amendment right to ask questions on behalf of the American people," the spokesperson told The Epoch Times via email at the time.

Trump announced the lawsuit in a Truth Social post, saying that the NY Times had become "a virtual mouthpiece for the radical left Democrat Party" and cited its endorsement of then-Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris.

"Their Endorsement of Kamala Harris was actually put dead center on the front page of The New York Times, something heretofore UNHEARD OF," he said.

Aldgra Fredly contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 13:25

Prime Minister Keir Starmer Resigns As UK Faces 7th Leader In A Decade

The Keir Starmer experiment is officially over, as was growing increasingly clear over the weekend, especially with an interestingly-timed Trump Truth Social statement. Just under two years after capturing the keys to Number 10, the British Prime Minister has thrown in the towel after succumbing to an internal party mutiny following days of intense, closed-door speculation regarding his political survival.

Stepping up to the lectern outside Downing Street on Monday morning, a visibly defeated Starmer delivered the inevitable verdict to the press. "I will resign as leader of the Labour Party," Starmer announced.

“Burnham’s succession is looking more assured as one of the top potential rivals for the job, Wes Streeting, has said he would back Burnham. This makes it less likely any candidate will have to offer some policy red meat to the leftist MPs in the Labour party to win. As far as the markets are concerned, that is a good thing.”
— Simon White, Macro Strategist.

via BBC News

The Prime Minister confirmed he has instructed Labour's National Executive Committee to draw up a swift succession timetable. Leadership nominations will officially open on July 9, with the entire process scheduled to wrap up before the summer recess.

British mediai says that the aggressive timeline ensures a new Prime Minister will be installed well before Parliament reconvenes in September.

Starmer's abrupt (but not entirely 'a surprise') exit comes after his center-left Labour Party made it clear they no longer believed he could deliver a future electoral victory. He practically admitted as much on the steps of Number 10.

"The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election," Starmer confessed. "I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question, and I accept that answer with good grace."

Defending his short and tumultuous tenure, Starmer attempted to frame his departure as an act of ultimate patriotism rather than a capitulation to party infighting.

"Every decision I’ve taken has been about putting the country I love first. That is why I will resign as leader of the Labour party," he said, adding: "I have spoken to his majesty the king this morning to inform him of my decision."

The Prime Minister's resignation was directly catalyzed by last week's by-election victory of Andy Burnham in Makerfield. Burnham, the fiercely popular former Greater Manchester Mayor, has long loomed as the "King in the North" and the ultimate threat to Starmer's sterile brand - according to many - of leadership. By securing a seat in the House of Commons, Burnham effectively checked Starmer into a corner.

"New leader will be in place before Parliament returns in September, I will remain in post until the contest is complete"

Keir Starmer announces he will resign as UK prime minister and leader of the Labour Party

Follow live updates and reaction: https://t.co/8HkQf7O9cD pic.twitter.com/oyZPA5C6Yc

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) June 22, 2026

With Burnham holding immense sway among rank-and-file MPs, the writing was on the wall. He now enters the upcoming leadership contest as the overwhelming frontrunner to be Britain's next Prime Minister.

* * *

BREAKING: President Trump confirms Keir Starmer is resigning as Prime Minister… before Starmer has confirmed it himself. The final humiliation. pic.twitter.com/yz33xD4rPt

— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) June 21, 2026 Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 13:03

Rep. Hunt: Racial Argument Against Voter ID Is 'Insulting'

Authored by Catherine Salgado via PJMedia.com,

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) emphasized to Congress the importance of passing the election integrity SAVE America Act and rejected woke arguments against voter ID as racist and condescending.

Democrats’ idiotic arguments against requiring ID to vote include claiming that black Americans are somehow mysteriously unable to get IDs. Aside from the obvious elitism and racial prejudice of such a claim, it is practically impossible to live in America and not have identification. They are required at doctor’s offices, airports, bars, liquor stores, car rentals, welfare programs, and many more places. But somehow expecting IDs at polling places is unreasonable? 

Democrats claim requiring proof of citizenship to vote is racist and discriminatory.

I’ve been Black my entire life, and that’s one of the most insulting arguments I’ve ever heard.

✅ Black Americans can get IDs.
✅ Hispanic Americans can get IDs.
✅ Asian Americans can get… pic.twitter.com/x4HefeGKFE

— Wesley Hunt (@WesleyHuntTX) June 19, 2026

Hunt sarcastically said, “I've been black for my entire life. I had to bring up the most racist thing I've ever heard [which] is the insinuation by Democrats that black and brown Americans are too stupid to get an ID to vote, just like everybody else.”

The congressman continued, “I call this the soft bigotry of low expectations. Figuring out how to vote in this country is a very low bar, and we could all figure it out regard of your race, religion, color, or creed, and we should all want free and fair elections.” 

Except Democrats know they cannot win so many elections as they do without fraud, nor can they expand their control to new areas. They have no positive results to run on, no record of making any city or state more prosperous and more free. They need fraud to survive.

Hunt told Congress, “With me today — I'm not gonna pull mine out this time, but I have six forms of government-issued ID. How did I acquire that? Personal responsibility in this country. I've also heard a lot about Jim Crow here today. I'm here to tell you, Jim Crow is over, and I know it because my parents grew up in it.”

Democrats were the party of Jim Crow, ironically. But now they scream “racism” whenever anyone points out that they are pushing an awful policy.

Democrats cheapen and exploit the suffering their predecessors caused for political reasons.

As Hunt said, “And I think it's actually insulting to those that actually experienced the ills of Jim Crow” to compare getting an ID to that era.

“Having an ID to vote in our national election should be a requirement, which is why I stand [here] today, urging my colleagues on the left to support this bill. If you want secure elections, if you want your vote to count, vote for the Save Act.”

Unfortunately, that’s precisely what Democrats don’t want.

This debate was never about IDs, or about black Americans’ access to IDs, or about constitutionality.

It was always about one political party believing in our Republic’s system of elections, and the other party hating our Republic’s system of government and believing they should decide who our leaders are instead of We the People.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 12:45

Iran Tried To Bring IRGC-Linked Individuals Into US With World Cup Delegation: Homeland Security Chief

Via American Greatness,

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said Sunday that Iranian officials attempted to bring multiple individuals with alleged ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps into the United States as part of the country’s World Cup soccer delegation.

Mullin made the remarks during an interview with Fox News as U.S.-Iran negotiations were

U.S. officials subjected members of Iran’s traveling delegation to heightened scrutiny after President Donald Trump directed the Department of Homeland Security to conduct extensive vetting of individuals seeking entry into the country.

Mullin said more than half of the additional representatives Iran sought to bring into the United States had connections to the IRGC, which U.S. officials view as a hostile military organization.

“When we started doing the research on him, he had only been put in place since 2022, and we didn’t allow him to board the plane,” Mullin told Fox News host Maria Bartiromo on Sunday, referring to the individual who had ties with the IRGC.

“The guy that tried to get on the plane yesterday had direct ties to the IRGC,” Mullin .

“We accepted 53 individuals coming in and the rest of the individuals that Iran had tried to bring in all also had direct ties to the IRGC and aren’t their normal traveling group,” he said.

Mullin said that the Iranian official who attempted to enter the United States was, according to Tehran, the president of the country’s soccer federation, noting that the Iranian soccer team playing World Cup games is based in Tijuana, Mexico. The team flies from Mexico into the United States when they need to play games.

The secretary said the administration anticipated that Iran could attempt to use the World Cup delegation to gain access to the United States and took additional precautions as a result.

According to Mullin, Trump authorized what he described as extreme vetting measures to screen members of the Iranian contingent.

“These games that Iran plays makes them an adversary that you can’t trust,” Mullin said.

Mullin did not provide additional details about the individuals who were denied entry or the nature of their alleged ties to the IRGC.

The Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran called Mullin’s allegation “an outright lie.”

“The claim that an official representative of the Iranian football federation attempted to board a flight to enter the United States yesterday and was prevented from doing so is an outright and undeniable lie. This claim is so unfounded that those who made it are well aware that such an incident never occurred in the first place,” FFIRI said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 12:05

"DeepSeek Of The West" Reflection Inks Major Compute Deal With SpaceXAI

SpaceX shares tumbled for a third straight session, down around 9% late in the U.S. cash morning, after the Elon Musk-led company said it would sell investment-grade bonds for the first time.

However, a new headline crossed around 11:05 a.m. ET via Axios, reporting that Reflection, the Nvidia-backed open-source AI startup, had signed a major compute deal with SpaceXAI.

Under the deal, Reflection will pay SpaceXAI $150 million per month starting next Wednesday, July 1, through 2029, following an initial ramp period.

SpaceX $SPCX signed a compute deal with open-source AI startup Reflection AI for access to $NVDA GB300 chips at Colossus 2, per CNBC.

Reflection will pay SpaceX $150M per month starting July 1, 2026, totaling about $6.3B if the deal runs through 2029.

SpaceX has now signed… pic.twitter.com/CKOu4CUcjc

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) June 22, 2026

The deal gives the startup, founded by former Google DeepMind researchers Misha Laskin and Ioannis Antonoglou, access to Nvidia’s Grace Blackwell Ultra AI computing chip, also known as GB300, which is necessary to train its models.

Earlier this year, The Wall Street Journal described Reflection as the “DeepSeek of the West” because the AI lab aims to build open-weight, frontier-scale AI models as a direct alternative to China’s DeepSeek.

The deal highlights the circular flow of the AI boom, something we have noted countless times (see here and here). Nvidia invested $800 million in Reflection, which will now use Nvidia chips purchased by SpaceX. This allows the startup to avoid the multibillion-dollar burden of building out its own data centers and instead lease compute from hyperscalers.

With shares down 9% in late-morning trading, the Reflection-SpaceXAI deal was not enough to lift the stock, which is now down 25% from last Tuesday’s high of $225.

The Reflection-SpaceXAI deal also shows that SpaceX's massive compute buildout is not just for internal AI chatbots, but is also becoming a revenue-generating business, catering specifically to external AI frontier labs seeking high-end training capacity.

It may suggest that internal compute demand has been lackluster... 

Last week, Yann LeCun, founder of AMI Labs, called xAI a "failure," adding that he expects it won't be able to compete with OpenAI and Anthropic.

The deal follows a similar deal that Anthropic made with SpaceX to expand cloud computing capacity. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 11:45

Repairs To Reflecting Pool Will Begin Immediately, Trump Says, Citing Vandalism

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Sunday that work to repair the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington will begin immediately after it was damaged by vandalism.

The Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool is refilled after it was repaired and repainting as part of President Donald Trump's “Make the District of Columbia Safe and Beautiful” initiative ahead of America's 250th anniversary in Washington on June 4, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The reflecting pool had been renovated ahead of the 250th anniversary of the country's Independence Day on July 4 under Trump's order, which included repainting its surface blue. But problems have emerged in recent days with algae blooming in the pool and peeling paint.

Trump said in a Truth Social post on June 21 that he inspected the pool and found it had been "seriously vandalized." He said the pool's condition left him wondering "who would do such a thing," adding that the damage will be fixed.

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro told Fox News on Sunday that several citations have been issued to individuals accused of vandalizing the pool and warned that those responsible will be prosecuted to the fullest extent.

"Anyone who is in a position of vandalizing or attempting to vandalize ​the reflecting pool will face the criminal justice system in D.C.," she said. "The president has made it a priority to make D.C. not only safe, but beautiful."

Pirro also warned that anyone found to have poured products into the pool to generate algae could face more serious charges.

Trump said in a June 20 post that vandals destroyed the grass around the site and suggested some even poured "corrosive and destructive chemicals into the pool." He said the pool's water may need to be drained to allow repairs.

"They took some form of knife or blade, and put a 250 foot long gash into the beautiful facade of what took so much work, competence, and money to build and complete," he wrote.

Trump said authorities have made multiple arrests in connection with vandalism at the reflecting pool.

In a separate post on June 19, the president said that 75 percent of the algae in the reflecting pool had been removed and that the issue was expected to be fixed early the next week.

The reflecting pool stretches 2,030 feet long and 167 feet wide, with a depth of 30 inches at its center. Trump first announced in March that he was working with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to clean up the pool in front of the Lincoln Memorial on the National Mall, which he said was "absolutely filthy" and should have been cleaned during the prior administration.

Trump also announced earlier this month that he plans to build a promenade connecting the Lincoln Memorial and the Potomac River. The Lincoln Memorial honors Abraham Lincoln, the 16th U.S. president, who led the ​United States through the Civil War. It sits at the western end of ⁠the National Mall overlooking the Reflecting Pool.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 11:05

Chevron Lands 20-Year Deal To Power Microsoft's AI Expansion

Microsoft has signed a 20-year agreement with Chevron to power a massive new AI-focused data center campus in West Texas, underscoring the growing race among tech companies to secure reliable energy supplies, according to Bloomberg.

The project, known as Project Kilby, is expected to begin generating power in 2028 and eventually reach 2.67 gigawatts—enough electricity for more than 530,000 Texas homes.

Chevron is developing the project with Engine No. 1 and expects to make a final investment decision later this year. Despite the enormity of the deal and the inroads into powering AI directly, Chevron stock was little changed after the cash open:

Bloomberg writes that the site near Pecos, Texas, will use natural gas from the Permian Basin to fuel GE Vernova turbines and generate electricity directly for Microsoft's planned data center campus. Because the facility will produce its own power, it will not draw from the grid.

“Consumers are concerned about and are already feeling the effect of power-demand growth,” said Jeff Gustavson, Chevron’s president of New Energies. “We specifically designed this, in this part of the country, to avoid any of that.”

The agreement comes as Microsoft accelerates its AI infrastructure buildout to compete with Alphabet and Amazon. The company has said it plans to double its data center footprint over the next two years, driving demand for large-scale, dependable power sources.

Chevron argues the project also creates a productive use for abundant Permian natural gas that is often wasted because pipeline capacity is limited. “This is the most abundant gas basin in the country, maybe the world,” Gustavson said.

Chevron and Engine No. 1 have already secured orders for seven GE Vernova gas turbines. While Chevron has not disclosed the project's cost, people familiar with the matter previously estimated it at roughly $7 billion.

The deal reflects a broader trend across the U.S., where data center capacity is expected to double to 77 gigawatts by 2030. Texas alone has 33 gigawatts of planned data center power projects, the most of any state, highlighting how AI is reshaping energy demand and infrastructure investment.

At a higher level, the deal highlights a growing shift in how AI infrastructure is being financed and powered. Rather than relying solely on utilities and the existing grid, hyperscalers are increasingly partnering directly with energy producers to secure dedicated generation capacity. That model could accelerate data center development while reducing grid constraints, but it also raises questions about the long-term balance between AI-driven power demand, decarbonization goals, and energy affordability.

As we have constantly written about over the last 2 years, as AI becomes a larger share of electricity consumption, access to reliable power may emerge as a competitive advantage on par with access to chips and computing infrastructure.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 10:45

Diverging Markets And Converging Talks?

By Teeuwe Mevissen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

Financial markets continue to navigate an increasingly complex macro landscape, defined by the interaction of geopolitical shocks, resurgent inflation pressures, and diverging central bank responses. The key theme remains the tension between resilient risk assets—particularly equities—and a more cautious signal emanating from fixed income markets. This divergence reflects a broader uncertainty about the persistence of inflation and the implications for monetary policy and economic growth.

Meanwhile Iranian and U.S. negotiators have concluded an initial round of high-level talks in Switzerland, with both sides reporting progress. They agreed on a roadmap aiming for a final peace deal within 60 days. Key outcomes include plans to establish a mechanism to de-escalate the conflict in Lebanon and to ensure safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A joint statement confirmed that further technical negotiations will continue, with some delegations staying in Switzerland. A high-level committee will oversee the next phase of discussions. Although the talks were initially tense—partly due to a social media post by U.S. President Donald Trump threatening Iran—both sides ultimately described the discussions as constructive, noting advances on multiple fronts. But it remains to be seen to what extent Iran and the US are truly converging on the more thorny issues.  

Last week’s Federal Reserve meeting saw the dropping of the easing bias narrative. The Fed held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, citing solid economic activity and still-elevated inflation pressures. At the same time, updated projections suggest only a gradual decline in inflation towards the 2% target, with core PCE inflation expected to remain above target through 2026. Importantly, the Fed acknowledged that inflation remains influenced by supply-side shocks, particularly energy prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. We expect two rate cuts in April and June next year. For more information you van find the post Fed comment from Philip Marey here.

In contrast, the European Central Bank has already shifted back into tightening mode, raising policy rates by 25 basis points earlier in June. The ECB explicitly cited the inflationary effects of the energy shock and revised its inflation projections upward, now expecting headline inflation to average 3.0% in 2026. At the same time, growth forecasts were revised down—highlighting the stagflationary trade-off facing policymakers.

The global macro backdrop continues to be dominated by developments in energy markets, which remain tightly linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The disruption to shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year triggered a sharp spike in oil prices and significant supply dislocations, with global inventories declining at an accelerated pace. Although recent negotiations between the US and Iran have raised hopes of a partial normalization in energy flows, the adjustment process is expected to be gradual. Even under a favourable scenario, it could take months for oil production and shipping to return to pre-conflict levels.

This matters because the energy shock is transmitting broadly across the economy. Higher fuel costs are feeding into transportation, food, and industrial prices, raising headline inflation and increasing the risk of second-round effects. At the same time still elevated prices are starting to weigh on demand, with global oil consumption now projected to decline in 2026. In essence, the global economy is facing a classic adverse supply shock—one that pushes inflation higher while dampening real growth.

Despite the challenging macro backdrop, equity markets have shown remarkable resilience. US equities in particular continue to trade close to record highs, supported by strong corporate earnings and a powerful structural narrative around artificial intelligence. Earnings growth has been robust, with companies demonstrating greater pricing power than expected and benefiting from continued investment in AI-related capital expenditure. However, this strength comes with important caveats. Valuations seem elevated, and the market appears to be pricing a relatively benign macro outcome despite clear downside risks. The combination of high inflation, elevated bond yields, and geopolitical uncertainty suggests that equity markets may be underestimating the potential for volatility.

Government bond yields have risen materially. Recently long-end yields in advanced economies reached levels not seen in nearly two decades. Today rates stay close to levels seen last Friday with the10-year euro swap only 1 bp lower but still slightly above 3%. This reflects a combination of factors: Rising inflation expectations due to energy prices, increased term premia amid geopolitical uncertainty and a reassessment of central bank reaction functions The bond market’s message is clear: inflation risks remain skewed to the upside, and policy rates are likely to stay restrictive for longer than previously anticipated. This creates a challenging environment for duration assets and increases the risk of tighter financial conditions feeding back into the real economy.

In currency markets, divergence in monetary policy paths is becoming increasingly relevant. With the ECB tightening and the Fed on hold, relative rate dynamics could provide some support for the euro in the near term. However, this is counterbalanced by weaker growth prospects in the Eurozone and a higher vulnerability to energy shocks.

More broadly, cross-asset dynamics continue to be shaped by the interplay between inflation and growth expectations. The current environment is characterized by: Equity markets pricing resilience, Bond markets pricing persistent inflation and commodities reflecting geopolitical risk. This divergence suggests that markets have yet to converge on a coherent macro narrative.

Looking ahead, one of the key question for markets remains whether the current equilibrium—strong equities alongside high yields—can be sustained. Much will depend on three factors:

1. Energy market developments: Any sustained easing of supply constraints could alleviate inflation pressures, while renewed disruptions would exacerbate them.
2. Inflation dynamics: Evidence of second-round effects, particularly in wages and services, would likely force central banks into a more hawkish stance.
3. Growth resilience: Signs of a sharper slowdown could trigger a reassessment across asset classes.

Finally, news just came in that Keir Starmer has resigned as prime minister and leader of the labour party. What this will mean for the future political landscape in the UK remains to be seen but it surely illustrates the current and ongoing political instability in the UK.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 10:25

Key Events This Week: Core PCE, Global PMIs, Micron Earnings And Fed Talk

The main data highlights this week are the global flash PMIs tomorrow, and the US core PCE on Thursday. Elsewhere, other data of interest include the Ifo survey in Germany (Wednesday), Tokyo CPI in Japan (Friday), and CPI reports in Canada (today) and Australia (Wednesday). Also focus will be on the UK where Keir Starmer announced his resignation earlier today and attention will turn on succession planning. 

After a hawkish FOMC last week with a clear shift in style from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, DB economists now have two 25bps hikes in their Fed forecast while Bank of America raised their forecast and now expect 3 hikes in 2026, reversing its prior no-change forecast on strong data and a hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh. DB warns that the US economy needed tighter policy but were waiting for the meeting to confirm the tightening view. The central scenario sees two rate increases this year, likely in September and December, taking the fed funds rate to around 4.1%, followed by a prolonged pause through 2027. Easing is then expected to resume in the first half of 2028, with around 50 basis points of cuts, potentially delivered in March and June, bringing policy back towards a neutral range of roughly 3.5–3.75%. 

In terms of the US week ahead, DB economists expect appearances by Williams and Goolsbee on Thursday to be particularly informative. Williams, who also serves as Vice Chair of the FOMC, is seen as one of those not currently predicting a hike this year, while Goolsbee is viewed as leaning towards around 50 basis points of tightening.

Earlier that day, attention will center on the data flow. Economists expect May personal income to rise by around 0.4% (from flat previously) and consumption to increase by 0.6% (from 0.5%). The core PCE deflator is projected to rise by around 0.37% month-on-month, up from 0.24%. On this basis, the year-on-year rate would move higher to approximately 3.44%, marking the strongest reading since October 2023 and reinforcing the narrative of persistent underlying inflation. The Fed will also release its bank stress test results on Wednesday and there is other second tier data you can see in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual. 

Over in Europe, in addition to the PMIs, sentiment indicators in Germany will include the Ifo survey (Wednesday) and the July GfK consumer confidence print (Thursday). In France, there will be business confidence tomorrow and consumer confidence on Thursday. Finally, the ECB will release its May consumer expectations survey on Friday, with inflation expectations in focus. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde amongst others.

In Asia, inflation prints due include the Tokyo CPI for June on Friday in Japan and Australia’s May CPI due Wednesday. Other notable data features BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its June meeting (Wednesday), Australia’s labour force survey (Thursday) and the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates in China (Monday).

Finally, there will be a few notable earnings reports out next week, including FedEx, Cerebras and Carnival tomorrow as well as Micron and Jefferies on Wednesday. Micron is up around 830% over the last year and around 250% since the end of March with a market cap of nearly $1.3tn. So it’s becoming one to follow from the macro side.  

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 22

• Data: Eurozone June consumer confidence, Canada May CPI, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates
• Central banks: Fed's Waller speaks, ECB's Lagarde and Kocher speak

Tuesday June 23

• Data: US, UK, Japan, Eurozone, Germany and France June flash PMIs, US June Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, France June business confidence, May retail sales, EU27 May new car registrations
• Central banks: ECB's Lane and Vujcic speak, BoE’s Taylor and Dhingra speak
• Earnings: FedEx, Cerebras, Carnival
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)

Wednesday June 24

• Data: US May new home sales, Q1 current account balance, Japan May PPI services, Germany June Ifo survey, Australia May CPI
• Central banks: ECB's Nagel and Cipollone speak, BoJ's Himino speaks, BoJ summary of opinions (June MPM), BoE’s Breeden and Dhingra speak, BoC summary of deliberations
• Earnings: Micron, Jefferies
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)
• Other: Fed releases bank stress test results

Thursday June 25

• Data: US May PCE, personal income and spending, durable goods orders, Chicago Fed national activity index, June Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Germany July GfK consumer confidence, France June consumer confidence, Italy April industrial sales, Australia May labour force survey
• Central banks: Fed's Williams and Goolsbee speak, ECB's Moulin, Lane and Cipollone speak, BoJ's Tamura speaks, ECB Economic Bulletin
• Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Friday June 26

• Data: US May advance goods trade balance, retail inventories, wholesale inventories, June Kansas City Fed services activity, JapanJune Tokyo CPI, Italy June consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, ECB May consumer expectations survey
• Central banks: Fed's Kashkari speaks, ECB's Nagel and Vujcic speak

Turning just to the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the PCE inflation report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Waller and Presidents Williams, Goolsbee, and Kashkari.

Monday, June 22 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 
• 09:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver opening remarks at the fifth conference on the International Roles of the US Dollar in Washington, DC. Speech text is expected. On May 22, Waller said that he is “prepared to be patient in holding policy at its current restrictive setting as we watch how the conflict evolves and what impact there is on inflation and inflation expectations.” He also noted that “if inflation expectations become unanchored, [he] would not hesitate to support an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate, but at this point that action is premature.”

Tuesday, June 23 

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing index, June preliminary (consensus 54.6, last 55.1): S&P Global US services index, June preliminary (consensus 51.0, last 50.7) 

Wednesday, June 24 

• 10:00 AM New home sales, May (GS +3.6%, consensus +3.2%, last -6.2%) 

Thursday, June 25 

• 08:30 AM Personal income, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last flat); Personal spending, May (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Core PCE price index, May (GS +0.31%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Core PCE price index (YoY), May (GS +3.38%, consensus +3.4%, last +3.3%); PCE price index, May (GS +0.45%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.4%); PCE price index (YoY), May (GS +4.04%, consensus +4.1%, last +3.8%): We estimate that personal income and spending increased by 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, in May. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.31% in May, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.38%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.45% in May, or increased 4.04% from a year earlier. 
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 20 (GS 230k, consensus 225k, last 226k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 13 (consensus 1,805k, last 1,810k)
• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, May preliminary (GS -3.0%, consensus -5.0%, last +8.0%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, May preliminary (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.6%, last +1.1%); Core capital goods orders, May preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.6%, last -1.0%); Core capital goods shipments, May preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.4%): We estimate that durable goods orders declined 3% in the preliminary May report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) based on our tracking of commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.3% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting the increase in the new orders components in manufacturing surveys in May—and a 0.3% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months.
• 08:30 AM GDP, Q1 third release (GS +1.6%, consensus +1.6%, last +1.6%); Personal consumption, Q1 third release (GS +1.4%, consensus +1.4%, last +1.4%): We estimate no revision on net to Q1 GDP growth at +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). We expect unrevised consumer spending growth at +1.4%.
• 03:40 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at the Crane Money Fund Symposium in New York City, NY. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On June 3, Williams said, “Monetary policy is exactly in the right place.” He also noted that he does not see “any need to raise or lower interest rates right now.”
• 06:30 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will discuss the forces shaping monetary policy and what they mean for the American economy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Q&A is expected. On May 18, Goolsbee raised concerns about inflation and said, “We were making progress [on inflation], then we stalled, and now [the inflation problem] is getting worse.” On the labor market, he said, “The labor market might not be good, but it has been stable.”

Friday, June 26 

• 08:30 AM Advanced goods trade balance, May (GS -$84.0bn, consensus -$85.0bn, last -$83.0bn); We estimate that the goods trade deficit widened slightly from $83.0bn in April to $84.0bn, reflecting a $16bn decline in gold exports that was largely offset by an increase in exports of energy goods.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June final (GS 49.5, consensus 50.0, last 48.9); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, June final (GS 3.3%, last 3.4%)
• 11:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks; Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a panel at the Aspen Ideas Festival. On May 29, Kashkari said, “I think it is premature to conclude we need to be raising rates right away.” He also noted, “We need to keep watching the data and watching how the conflict in the Middle East unfolds before we want to make any adjustment.”

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 10:15

Scottish Court Rules Against Biological Males Being Held In Women's Prisons

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

There is a major ruling in Scotland where a court declared that it is generally unlawful to house a transgender biological male in a women’s prison. The decision follows the ruling of the top UK court that a woman is defined by her biological gender at birth. The timing is notable as we await a couple of transgender rulings from our own Supreme Court this week. The decisions also highlight the anomaly of police continuing to arrest people who object to transgender policies under the aggressive anti-free speech laws in the United Kingdom.

In her published opinion, Lady Ross declared that “in all the circumstances, the prison’s guidance is unlawful.” The decision came after a controversy involving convicted rapist Isla Bryson – formerly known as Adam Graham. Despite being convicted of raping two women in 2023, Bryson was initially sent to the Cornton Vale women’s prison.

Scotland continues to crack down on free speech through draconian laws.

The Hate Crime and Public Order (Scotland) Act 2021 illustrates how these laws create a slippery slope of speech criminalization as more and more speech is banned. We previously discussed the law when it was first introduced.

The new crime covers “stirring up hatred” relating to age, disability, religion, sexual orientation, transgender identity or being intersex. That crime covers insulting comments and anything “that a reasonable person would consider to be threatening or abusive.”

It is enough that a person is found to have likely understood that the comments would be abusive or insulting as opposed to intending to be abusive or insulting.

Figures such as J.K. Rowling have been threatened with arrest for her public position in opposition to transgender laws.

This creates a curious conflict, as courts support such views when enforcing biological limits on access to prisons and other areas.

In the United States, there is a division on the issue. Some states, like Maine, require correctional housing to match the gender identification of the inmate rather than the biological sex at birth. Faced with lawsuits and legislative inquiries, the Maine Correctional Department continues to defend its policy. Other states have barred such transgender placement.

This coming week, we are awaiting major rulings on transgender controversies in the United States.

In Little v. Hecox,  the Court is considering whether laws that categorically require sports participants to compete based on their biological sex violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.

In West Virginia v. B.P.J., the Court is considering two questions: (1) whether Title IX prevents a state from limiting sports teams to biological sex at birth, and (2) whether such a limitation violates the Equal Protection Clause.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 09:40

China Sanctions 10 US Defense, Rare Earth Firms, Restricts 46 From Govt Procurement Weeks After Pentagon Blacklist

China said on Monday that it will add 10 American firms to its export control list, including two rare earth firms MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, while also restricting 46 US firms from government procurement, signalling it would respond to Washington’s recent expansion of a military blacklist, even amid a broader stabilization of bilateral ties, the SCMP reported.

The Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Monday that the 10 American firms to be added to the export control list were

• AVEOX (Simi Valley, California)
• Red Cat Holdings and Teal Drones (South Salt Lake, Utah)
• IMSAR (Springville, Utah)
• Jaia Robotics (Bristol, Rhode Island)
• Ball Aerospace & Technologies (Broomfield, Colorado)
• Oshkosh Defense (Oshkosh, Wisconsin)
• L3Harris Maritime Services (Norfolk, Virginia)
• MP Materials (Las Vegas, Nevada)
• USA Rare Earth (Stillwater, Oklahoma)

It's notable that China's commerce ministry had already imposed curbs on a number of these listed firms and their subsidiaries, both in 2024 and 2025 over US arms sales to Taiwan. More notably, the inclusion of critical rare earth players like MP Materials and USA Rare Earth underscores Beijing's willingness to weaponize its monopoly over the global magnet and rare earths supply chains.

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce said the decisions were made in response to “malicious actions” by the US government, after the US Department of Defence expanded its list of “Chinese military companies”.

China’s Ministry of Commerce in Beijing. Photo: EPA-EFE/File photo

“China has decided, in accordance with the relevant laws and provisions… to include Aveox, Inc. and nine other US military-related entities on the export control list. The export of dual-use items to these entities is prohibited, and no export operators shall violate the above provisions,” said the commerce ministry spokesperson.

Analysts said that the measures from both sides so far were unlikely to significantly derail relations, though they also warned of the impact from any escalation.As we reported, on June 9, the Pentagon said it was adding dozens of Chinese companies - including tech giants Alibaba and Baidu - to a list of entities it says were linked to China’s military, widening a blacklist perceived as targeting sectors at the heart of US-China technological competition. The designation cut the firms off from US defense procurement; however, Baidu had quickly shot back, calling the suggestion that it is a military company "totally baseless". 

So the U.S. publishes a list of Chinese Military Companies—which imposes no sanctions or restrictions on those companies, it’s just a list—and China responds with actual export controls on multiple U.S. companies. Seems like a good time for Commerce to issue the Entity List… https://t.co/3JIAMuWVfK

— Chris McGuire (@ChrisRMcGuire) June 22, 2026

The commerce ministry cited provisions of China’s laws on export control of dual-use items - products with both civilian and military applications - as well as the need to safeguard national security and fulfill "international non-proliferation obligations."

Specifically, export operators are prohibited from shipping dual-use items to the 10 firms. Organizations and individuals from any country or region are also prohibited from transferring or providing any dual-use item that originated in China to these businesses.

The notice mandated that any export currently under way that falls under the law must be stopped immediately.

 

Taiwan remains a sticking point in this tense ongoing diplomatic and defense tug-of-war, but Rubio has still lately confirmed that a proposed $14 billion arms package to Taiwan remains "under review" - in the wake of fierce Beijing objections.

According to the Wall Street Journal, here what was likely behind Beijing's calculus:

China’s actions on Monday “likely serve to build leverage for China in the ongoing negotiations with the U.S.,” said Henry Gao, a trade expert and professor of law at Singapore Management University. “In terms of the trade truce, this development introduces additional friction, but it does not necessarily derail the process.”

MP Materials, which enjoys financial backing from the Pentagon, is a leading U.S. miner and processor of rare earths. Although USA Rare Earth is less established as a player in the emerging industry, both companies are aggressively ramping up capacity in an attempt to break China’s stranglehold over the global supply chain of the key materials. MP Materials and USA Rare Earth didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, the Chinese Ministry of Finance also released a statement saying it would restrict 46 US firms from government procurement, excluding those involved in China-based US-Sino joint ventures, effective immediately. The list of 46 US companies includes Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Missiles & Defence, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, BDS (Boeing Defence, Space & Security), General Dynamics Land Systems and Javelin Joint Venture, a 50-50 partnership between Lockheed Martin and Raytheon.

Cameron Johnson, a partner at Shanghai-based consultancy Tidalwave Solutions, said the move is Beijing’s “brushback pitch” – a warning against other possible sanctions on China or its firms.

“This is a reaction to the US’ recent blacklisting by the Pentagon,” he said. “This also serves as a warning against any possible sanctions, such as ones targeting China’s open-source AI tools that are currently being discussed in the US.”

Johnson said that more trade sanctions were likely from both the US and China, as both countries attempt to increase leverage before President Xi Jinping’s visit to the US in September.

“So when they meet, they can use these measures as chips at the bargaining table,” he said.

 

Earlier this month, the Pentagon added technology giant Alibaba Group Holding, electric vehicle makers BYD and Nio, search engine Baidu, robot maker Unitree Robotics, networking equipment maker TP-Link and other Chinese companies in artificial intelligence, biotechnology and the solar sector to a list of “Chinese military companies”.

The designation, under Section 1260H of the National Defence Authorisation Act, can complicate firms’ access to US capital markets and government business, although it does not automatically trigger sanctions. Observers also said “reputational stigma” could affect the Chinese firms involved, and that the move could pave the way for tougher sanctions by the US.

 

For China, Johnson said the top leadership was also continuing to expand its export controls to blunt the impact from the US, particularly in non-proliferation compliance or in relation to activities or commodity trading it sees as detrimental to China and its companies.
Xin Qiang, a professor and deputy director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University, said Beijing was making it clear it would fight back against trade sanctions or designations, but that the ball is now in the US’ court.

“Beijing is making it clear it’s not afraid of tactical confrontation” he said.

Xin, however, warned that any further escalation could cast a pall over Xi’s planned September trip to the US.

“I think the next step will likely depend on whether the US continues to introduce new sanctions or confrontational measures. If so, China will certainly retaliate. If this falls into a vicious cycle, the impact will be extremely negative.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 09:20

Colombian Bonds, Stocks Rise As Trump-Backed "El Tigre" Defeats Socialist Rival

Summary:

• Colombian Bonds, Stocks Rise as Right-Wing, Trump-Backed Espriella Wins Vote
• Trump-Backed "El Tigre" Wins Colombia Presidency As Socialist Era Ends

Colombian Assets Rise After Trump-Backed Candidate Wins Presidential Election 

Colombian-dollar bonds surged across the curve on Monday, led by notes due in 2054, as traders bet that right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella's presidential win will cut taxes, reduce spending, crack down on crime, and reopen the oil industry to unleash an energy revolution.

The streets of Bogotá have erupted in celebration after it was announced that El Tigre has won the presidential election. pic.twitter.com/hB9zqgjBZW

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 21, 2026

According to Bloomberg data, bonds due in 2054 led the advance, up 0.8 cent to 116.9 cents on the dollar.

Colombian 2036 dollar bonds are rising. Peso jumped 1.5%.  

Colombia's version of the S&P 500, COLCAP, jumped 4% on Monday, with energy stocks leading, up 7.2%. 

Credicorp said Colombian stocks could rise 5% following the election and as much as 20% over the longer term, while local yields could slide by 150-200 bps in the months ahead.

BTG Pactual analyst Munir Jalil penned a note earlier today that outlined De la Espriella's win as "directionally constructive given the market-friendly platform on security, taxes, investment, and hydrocarbons."

"However, the near-term asset rally may be more contained than after the first round, as part of the outcome was already priced and the external backdrop is less supportive," Jalil said, adding, "We expect the COP and TES to react positively at first. Still, the move's durability should depend on the cabinet, the transition, fiscal signals, and the ability to build a stable congressional majority."

De la Espriella's government plan

JPMorgan analyst Diego Pereira said, "A one-point win is still a win, but one this thin reshapes both the mandate and the politics of delivery across fronts."

Pereira's view on Colombian markets:

Local markets:

We remain OW TES and long Sep-2030 TES, expecting the next leg of the rally to be driven by greater clarity on governability and fiscal consolidation plans. We stay MW COP and close the outright short COP vs BRL and MXN we had as a hedge for our position in bonds as the market settles after the open

Sovereign credit:

We reduce our OW weighting from 1.0 to 0.5 given potential tensions during the transition period from the revealed stark polarization.

Corporate Credit:

In the corporate space, we have expressed our view on Colombia’s elections through OW recommendations on the belly of Ecopetrol’s curve — the '32s, '33s, and '36s — alongside an OW on Bancolombia’s 2034 notes

Equities:

With today’s official confirmation of Abelardo de la Espriella’s victory, we view the result as confirmation of a policy regime change, which should support a broader re-rating in Colombian equities. From an equity strategy perspective, Energy offers the clearest opportunity around this outcome, and Ecopetrol (Neutral, covered by Milene Carvalho) stands out as the most direct way to gain exposure.

De la Espriella's win on Sunday night is part of a once-in-a-generation political shift across Latin America, a region ruled for years by nation-killing socialist regimes that have been voted out of office due to failed progressive policies sparking violent crime waves and economic turmoil. The rise of market-friendly, right-wing leaders has sparked rallies across the continent.

Amazing what happens when USAID gets defunded. 

A right wing wave of governments in South America via @DatosAme24

June 2023:
🔴Left wing: 10
🔵Right wing: 3

June 2026:
🔵Right wing: 7 (+4)
🔴Left wing: 6 (-4) https://t.co/jMzPwokz4k pic.twitter.com/GHpFVVqKFx

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) June 21, 2026

Take Argentina, for instance, where assets have jumped under right-wing President Javier Milei as he pushes to reset the economy.

Trump-Backed "El Tigre" Wins Colombia Presidency As Socialist Era Ends

South America is undergoing a once-in-a-generation political realignment as voters turn against left-wing and unhinged socialist governments and embrace common-sense right-wing leaders who promise law and order, economic reform, and national renewal.

¡Gracias, Colombia!

Casi 13 millones de colombianos depositaron su confianza en José Manuel Restrepo, en el Tigre y en este gran sueño llamado Patria Milagro.

Este respaldo histórico nos llena de gratitud, pero también de una enorme responsabilidad. Hoy comienza una nueva etapa… pic.twitter.com/137k5Q6wzo

— Abelardo De La Espriella (@ABDELAESPRIELLA) June 21, 2026

The political shift across the Americas gained further momentum on Sunday evening after Abelardo de la Espriella, backed by President Trump, won Colombia's presidential runoff in a narrow victory over left-wing senator Iván Cepeda. This is a major blow to the socialists, coming after four years under the left-wing administration of Gustavo Petro.

🚨 BREAKING: Trump-endorsed right-wing Colombian presidential candidate Abelardo De La Espriella STUNS THE WORLD and WINS the presidential election

He plans to go FULL BUKELE MODE, locking up criminals en masse, destroying the cartels and cooperate with President Trump… pic.twitter.com/FwrAGyHnsc

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) June 21, 2026

With 99.65% of ballots counted in the preliminary tally, de la Espriella had 12.91 million votes, or 49.65%, compared with Cepeda's 12.67 million, or 48.7%. The margin was about 248,000 votes, narrower than de la Espriella's first-round advantage three weeks earlier.

🚨 ÚLTIMA HORA: Abelardo de la Espriella gana la segunda vuelta presidencial en Colombia, según el preconteo. Llega a 12.901.860 votos, frente a 12.646.859 alcanzados por Iván Cepeda, con el 99,45 % de las mesas informadas

Siga el cubrimiento especial 👉🏻 https://t.co/W9Dw3E7iPd pic.twitter.com/NN12XhyqQe

— Noticias Caracol (@NoticiasCaracol) June 21, 2026

Polymarket 

BREAKING: Polymarket projects Abelardo “El Tigre” de la Espriella has won the Colombian presidential election — 99% chance. pic.twitter.com/HwunMz0QRQ

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) June 21, 2026

De la Espriella, who has referred to himself as El Tigre (the Tiger), has now put Colombia back on track to shift right after four years of disastrous socialism. This follows recent right-wing victories in Honduras and Chile, with Peru also leaning right. The 2024 re-election of right-wing Nayib Bukele, who fundamentally transformed El Salvador into one of the region's safest countries, is another example.

In 2023, Javier Milei was sworn in as president of Argentina, aiming to reverse years of far-left control that had devastated the nation with inflation and debt. Earlier this year, U.S. Delta Force operators removed socialist Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela.

The shift across the Americas is part of a broader backlash against progressive policies that have sparked surging violent crime, economic stagnation, debt traps, currency declines, and collapsing public confidence.

Americas Political Map: Presidential Shift From Left To Right

Country-by-country presidential shift tracker

Back to De La Espriella, who ran on a simple platform popular among right-wing leaders in the Americas: restore law and order and rescue the country from the economic ruin progressives had created. He has also vowed to "disembowel" the left in Colombia.

Meanwhile, Petro, who was constitutionally barred from seeking re-election and backed Cepeda, alleged irregularities in the preliminary vote count and blamed Israel...

"This means that the software was compromised and others wrote data for polling stations and voting posts. The only entity in the world capable of doing that is the state of Israel," Petro wrote on X.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro declares the results of the ongoing Presidential Runoff Election to be invalid, following the loss of left-wing ruling party candidate Iván Cepeda and close win of Trump-backed far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella. Petro claims that… pic.twitter.com/92hiJ96eUD

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 21, 2026

The pattern is clear: the Western Hemisphere experimented with nation-killing progressive policies that have largely failed and have entered a rejection phase. This gives rise to right-wing governments that support Trump, coinciding with his mission to clean up the West, whether by dismantling narco-terrorist command-and-control structures, pushing Chinese influence out of the region, or simply stopping the rise of socialism and communism.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 09:15

Getty Images Soars After Securing "Display Agreement" With OpenAI

Getty Images shares jumped 141% in New York premarket trading after the company announced a "display agreement" with OpenAI.

The timing could not have been better for Getty, whose stock had been languishing this year, down roughly 55% before the announcement.

For a company in need of a sentiment boost, the new partnership with OpenAI, which allows Getty content to be displayed in ChatGPT visual responses and gives users richer, higher-quality, properly licensed imagery, is reviving investor sentiment.

About 17% of Getty's float is short, with days to cover at around 4.6.

"The agreement enables the use of Getty Images' content for display within ChatGPT, enhancing the richness of visual responses," Getty wrote in a press release.

CEO Craig Peters stated, "High-quality, licensed visual content makes AI-powered search and discovery more useful and more trustworthy. This partnership with OpenAI reflects a shared recognition of that, and together we will deliver richer visual experiences to ChatGPT users."

Bloomberg noted, "Initially, Getty resisted the technology. It tried developing its own AI image generator and had sued Stability AI, a developer of another popular tool."

Getty's earnings in the first quarter fell short of sales expectations. The media company is still awaiting approval to acquire rival Shutterstock for $3.7 billion.

OpenAI has built a growing list of media and content deals, mostly around licensed content appearing in ChatGPT answers:

The OpenAI-Getty deal likely suggests that Sam Altman's chatbot company is trying to replace scraping/legal fights with paid licensing, attribution, and direct publisher integration.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 08:40

Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

Futures are modestly lower coming off the US holiday weekend, after equities finished higher last week with both Dow and Russell clocking new ATHs and SPX finishing in the green for the 11th time in the last 12 weeks.  As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures edged down 0.1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts are higher by 0.1% with chips outperforming as usual while hyperscalers, aka "check payers" down as all Mag 7 are lower with TSLA (-1.4%) and GOOGL (-1.6%; Google’s DeepMind VP John Jumper is leaving the company to join Anthropic) being the biggest laggards. Overseas, Asian markets mostly higher overnight with China and Japan the big gainers, up over 1.5%. European markets higher, up ~0.3%. Big development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Donald Trump again threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel, & US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In the UK, PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. Bond yields are 2-4bp higher, while the USD is largely unchanged. WTI crude fell $-0.58 to $75.27 reversing all earlier gains while Brent traded around $79. Gold and silver are higher as is bitcoin. There is little on the corporate calendar and scant macro data, leaving traders with little direction until Micron’s earnings due Wednesday and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Thursday take center stage. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week

In premarket trading, SpaceX shares slid more than 5% in premarket trading, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. Meanwhile, the semi meltup continues: chipmakers including Intel rallied. Getty Images soared more than 300% after inking a display partnership with ChatGPT owner OpenAI. Here are the notable premarket movers: 

• Alphabet (GOOGL) -1.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -1.3%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.8%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.2%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.9%, Apple (AAPL) -0.8%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.4%
• Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) climbs 48% after AbbVie agreed to buy the company for $10.9 billion to bolster its anti-inflammatory portfolio amid growing competition for its best-selling drug.
• Arcosa (ACA) gains 7% after CRH said it has signed an agreement to acquire 100% of the provider of building materials in an all-cash transaction for $150 per share.
• Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) gains 32% after announcing positive topline results from a Phase 3 study evaluating a single dose of an orally disintegrating tablet in adults with major depressive disorder.
• Fervo Energy (FRVO) gains 8% after the geothermal-energy company agreed with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Nvidia to develop a digital twin platform for Enhanced Geothermal Systems technology.
• Getty Images (GETY) soars 156% after the company announced a display partnership With OpenAI.
• Regenxbio (RGNX) climbs 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the FDA has agreed to reverse the rejection of the firm’s rare-disease drug.
• SpaceX (SPCX) is down 5%, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss.

A peppering of M&A and ECM news is spicing up an otherwise quiet Monday morning. Budget airline EasyJet has rejected three offers by US private credit giant Castlelake. AbbVie is closing in on a nearly $11 billion deal to buy inflammatory disease drug developer Apogee Therapeutics, according to the FT, which also reports that building materials group Arcosa could be close to a takeout by larger rival CRH. SpaceX kicked off its debut US dollar high-grade bond offering expected to be at least $25 billion.

The big geopolitical development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Oil traders took comfort from evidence of progress in Middle East talks even as President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran if Hezbollah militants continue to attack Israel. Vance said the warring sides set up a mechanism to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, while Iran agreed to invite nuclear inspectors.

“Even during the midst of the conflict in the Middle East, equities still priced a positive outcome,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “It seems logical that markets don’t rally too hard on something which they had already priced to a fair degree.”

Traders also followed the latest developments in UK politics as Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. The departure of Starmer is putting Britain on course for its seventh premier in a decade and paving the way for Andy Burnham to replace him. The former mayor of Manchester announced his candidacy hours after Starmer’s resignation and received the backing of Wes Streeting, a potential rival. Starmer said nominations for a new Labour leader will open July 9 and that a contest will be finalized by Sept. 1. The question for investors is about the impact on the UK’s finances if Burnham were to become prime minister. A slew of all-but-forgotten niche option positions betting on an oil glut are coming back into play as crude cools.

“Markets would be watching for Burnham’s pick of Chancellor,” wrote Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “The fear is that Burnham’s policies are left-leaning and if the new chancellor is not credible, it would raise concerns over deficits and borrowing.”

The AI trade still works and investors should keep it, say Goldman Sachs traders in charge of thematic investing, baskets and equity structuring.

In geopolitics, China has imposed export controls against US rare earth firms, in response to the Pentagon’s accusations against some of China’s biggest companies supporting the Chinese military.

Meanwhile, Trump’s administration is rolling out new tools with the same protectionist goals after the Supreme Court ruled his sweeping global tariffs to be illegal. The rising cost of living, and corruption, are shaping up to be major campaign battlefronts in races that will determine control of the US Congress. 

Bond traders, recently forced to reposition for the possibility of higher interest rates ahead, are looking to Thursday’s US personal consumption expenditures price index for a read on whether the market’s hawkish stance is warranted. Forecasters expect the index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge, to show acceleration on both a monthly and year-over-year basis in May. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is due to speak later on Monday. Bloomberg Economics’ head Anna Wong expects a hot PCE reading will likely reinforce the hawkish tilt by the Fed at its June meeting. 

Ahead of Micron’s earnings, a leveraged ETF linked to rival SK Hynix is lifting an option cap. Rising leverage is also showing up in FINRA’s margin debt statistics, and the Roundhill DRAM ETF has recorded 19 straight days of inflows and AUM surpassed $20 billion. Micron’s fiscal 3Q revenue may exceed consensus by about 13% and guidance by 18%, notes BI. 

European stocks struggled to derive much benefit with the Stoxx 600 down 0.1%, with construction and media stocks leading declines, while technology and energy shares are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Infineon shares rise as much as 5.3%, after CFO Sven Schneider maintained his bullish stance on the chipmaker’s growth over the next few years, while Bernstein increased its price target for the stock
• EasyJet shares rise as much as 5.4% to the highest level in almost a year after the British budget carrier rejected a third takeover proposal from US investment firm Castlelake
• BioArctic jumps as much as 10%, the most in more than four months, after the Swedish biopharma company signed a research and collaboration agreement with Eli Lilly for its BrainTransporter technology
• LISI gains as much as 7.6%, reaching a record high, as Berenberg initiates on the component maker with a buy rating, citing entrenched positions in automotive and aerospace fasteners
• Sanofi shares slip as much as 2.1%, making them the biggest laggard by index points in the Stoxx 600’s healthcare subgroup on Monday morning
• Babcock shares fall as much as 5.7%, the most since February, as the defense contractor posts full-year results
• UBS shares are slide as much as 0.6%, falling for a second straight session after being downgraded at Zuercher Kantonalbank on valuation grounds, with the Swiss bank having hit a fresh 2008-high last Thursday

Asian stocks surged to a record as chipmakers and other artificial intelligence-linked firms rallied amid optimism surrounding US-Iran peace talks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, with information technology the top performing sector. Markets in Taiwan, mainland China and Japan led regional gains.  Continued interest in AI and semiconductor plays drove Taiwan’s benchmark to a record high. South Korea’s memory maker SK Hynix also rose to an all-time high on expectations over its planned ADR listing, helping to erase earlier losses in the Kospi gauge. Meanwhile, equities in Hong Kong underperformed, as weak consumption data weighed on sentiment and investors chased the AI rally elsewhere. A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in the city was headed for a bear market before trimming some losses. 

“We continue seeing liquidities leaving ‘old Techs’ in Hong Kong including Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu to chase AI-related stocks in Japan, Korea and Taiwan,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian.

In FX, the pound is down a handful of pips near its year-to-date low. The yen is the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.3% against the greenback.

In rates, treasuries decline, pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.48% as trading resumes after Friday’s US cash-market holiday. US yields are 2bp-4bp higher on the day with losses led by front-end tenors, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s by 0.5bp and 1.5bp respectively. 10-year around 4.48% is cheaper by 3bp with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 5bp and 6.5bp. European bonds outperform led by gilts after Wes Streeting backed Andy Burnham to be new UK Prime Minister, removing a key uncertainty after Keir Starmer’s resignation. Oil trades lower on signs of diplomatic headway between the US and Iran. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few items so far. Dealers forecast about $50 billion of US investment-grade bond sales this week, likely to include a jumbo bond offering from SpaceX. Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with $69 billion 2-year notes, followed by 5- and 7-year note sales Wednesday and Thursday

In commodities, Brent crude futures fall 1.6% after Iran said there had been “major progress” in all-night discussions with the US. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% near session lows after US Vice President Vance says Hormuz is open and talks with Iran have made progress. Precious metals advance, with spot silver rising 2%.

US event calendar: US economic data calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The U.S. and Iran made progress during talks in Switzerland on Monday toward reaching a final deal within 60 days, including the agreement to establish a committee and a mechanism to end hostilities in Lebanon. CNBC
• The US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. BBG
• UK PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation and outlined plans for a successor to take office by September. The move clears the way for Andy Burnham to become Britain’s seventh PM in a decade. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting said he backed Burnham to become PM. The pound hovered near its weakest level of the year while gilts were little changed. BBG
• China announced on Monday that it will add 10 American firms to its export control list, including two rare earth firms, while also restricting 46 US firms from government procurement, signalling it would respond to Washington’s recent expansion of a military blacklist, even amid a broader stabilization of bilateral ties. SCMP
• South Korea’s exports jumped again in early June, thanks to AI fueling a sustained boom in the semiconductor sector. BBG
• Chevron signed a 20-year deal with Microsoft to supply natural-gas fired power to a planned West Texas data center that may become one of the largest in the US. BBG
• Semis are on pace to finish as the most net bought global subsector for a second straight year, with net allocations now at record highs. GS Prime Brokerage
• Major investors warned that Fed Chair Warsh’s push to axe the Fed’s guidance on the direction of monetary policy could increase volatility in the Treasury market and drive borrowing costs higher: FT.
• Hong Kong is in talks with Chinese authorities to expand cross-border investment channels and grant mainland buyers access to local IPOs. BBG
• Colombia elected Trump ally Abelardo de la Espriella president by a razor-thin margin. The preliminary result was immediately challenged by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, who backed rival candidate Senator Iván Cepeda. BBG
• US Secretary of State Rubio congratulates Colombia's presidential candidate De la Espriella who leads against leftist rival Cepeda following the Colombian election.
• Democrats are set to make corruption a major campaign battlefront in the midterms as polling suggests voters are eager to see lawmakers take on conflicts of interest and self-enrichment by leaders. BBG
• US Southern Command announces that Task Force Southern Spear has conducted a strike on a vessel operated by designated terrorist organisations in the Caribbean.
• US Secretary of State Rubio plans trip to the Middle East next week: Kuwait, UAE and Bahrain at the moment: Axios
• US President Trump told Axios that he doesn’t see Anthropic PBC as a national security threat, despite his administration recently taking steps to cut off foreign access to the tech company’s most advanced AI models. Furthermore, Trump said that it was seen as a threat last week, but relations have improved since with the AI giant.
• US Department of Agriculture announced three new cases of screwworm to take the total number of domestic detections to 15 cases.

Iran Headlines: Latest News

• US and Iran talks opened in Switzerland on Sunday after US VP Vance arrived in Switzerland and the Iranian delegation led by chief negotiator Ghalibaf, which included Foreign Minister Araghchi, arrived on Saturday, while Pakistan’s Premier Sharif and military chief Munir travelled to Switzerland to join the US-Iran talks.
• Iran's delegation reportedly left the negotiation site in protest against statements by US President Trump, while Fars also reported that Iran halted talks with the US after Trump threatened strikes over Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon. Iran said Trump’s threat is a blatant violation of the MoU and halted talks in Switzerland, while it is reviewing a response to Trump’s threats. However, sources cited by Al Hadath later stated that the Iranian delegation had not left the negotiation headquarters at the Burgenstock resort and the Iranian delegation head discussed a joint statement draft with mediators.
• US President Trump threatened to resume bombing and take over the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is not reached, while Trump said the US may take tolls if it has to and that he has a 60-day option, in which he can do whatever after it. Trump stated he spoke with Iranian officials and used expletive language in the call with Iranian officials on Hormuz, as well as threatened that they won’t have a country if Hormuz is closed, according to Fox.
• US President Trump posted that Iran must immediately stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble, or else the US would hit Iran very hard again, “just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Trump separately commented that there will be no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, unless they are imposed by the US.
• UKMTO reported an incident in which a cargo vessel was approached by a craft with six armed persons onboard 92 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s Mukalla in the Gulf of Aden.
• Israeli army chief said the Lebanon ceasefire is fragile and forces remain ready for combat.
• Israeli military convoy reportedly entered southern Syria’s Quneitra region, near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.
• Qatar and Pakistan issue joint statement on conclusion of US-Iran talks in Switzerland, while Qatar said first session of the US-Iran high level talks has concluded and that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere. said:. Technical talks are to continue for remainder of the week. US and Iran agreed to de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Encouraging progress has been made, including creation of a mechanism for further technical talks. Parties agree to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. High-level committee agrees on roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days.
• "The negotiations of the main Iranian delegation in Switzerland have ended, however, experts are still in Switzerland and are following up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding", Tasnim reported citing sources.
• Iranian negotiating team member said executive procedures about the release of Iranian frozen funds have taken place with the Qatari delegation and that a draft has been finalised regarding waivers of Iranian oil sanctions, which will be issued soon, although negotiations about other subjects will not take place if the war does not end in Lebanon.
• "No negotiations have taken place on the nuclear file so far", Tasnim reported citing a source.
• US diplomat said talks included robust discussions on a nuclear deal and enforcing the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, while talks also involved clarifying the messaging on the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, a US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, and that mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open.
• Pakistani Army Chief said negotiating parties reached success stage, according to Al Arabiya.
• US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, adds mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open.
• Sources cited by Al Arabiya said an anticipated statement will be issued by the Iranian and American negotiators and the mediators.
• Sources cited by Al Hadath stated that the Iranian delegation has not left the negotiation headquarters at the Bürgenstock resort and Iranian delegation head discusses joint statement draft with mediators. Tasnim reported Iranian delegation refused to return to negotiations but message exchanges continue through intermediaries.

Iranian Commentary:

• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi posted Pakistani and Qatari mediation delivered major progress to end Lebanon War, oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry said the technical team is to continue work, but negotiation delegation work has concluded, adds significant progress achieved in quadrilateral talks in Switzerland. Spokesman said groundwork for starting negotiations for the final agreement was discussed.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is working on safe passage mechanism for Hormuz and that Iran reported progress on oil sales and asset unfreezing, adds the war in all fronts, including Lebanon, must end.
• Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said the US is responsible for Israel's actions in Lebanon and Iran will hold the US accountable in the event of a threat against Iran.
• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi to lead the technical team in Switzerland, Sky News Arabia reported.
• Iran resumed oil loading from Kharg Island after about a six-week halt, following the lifting of the US blockade of its ports.

Lebanon/Israel:

• Al Jadeed News cites Haaretz source stating the Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the Blue Line in Lebanon.
• Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the yellow line (buffer zone), Al Jazeera reported, citing Israel's Haaretz sources.
• Israeli Foreign Minister Saar told his New Zealand counterpart, "Israel will respect the ceasefire in Lebanon as long as it won’t be breached by Hezbollah.".
• Israeli political and security cabinet will convene on Thursday amid US-Iran talks, N12 reported.
• Israeli officials are dismissing reported of an agreement to withdraw from certain points in southern Lebanon, amid a lack of US pressure to do, Maariv's Barsky reported. Officials add, "because in Washington they understand the Israeli position: no partial withdrawal, no point-specific withdrawal, and no diplomatic 'gesture'.". And, "as long as the Hezbollah threat persists, there is no change in the deployment of forces and no intention to relinquish the security positions in southern Lebanon.".
• Lebanese presidency discussed the issue of consolidating the ceasefire in Lebanon, in a call with Qatari PM and US's Vance.

Other:

• Two South Korean vessels were said to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after US and Iran signed a ceasefire MoU.
• Three India-linked supertankers re-emerged in the Gulf of Oman, which suggests an increase in traffic through the waterway.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with price action choppy following the recent conflicting headlines concerning US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland, as the Iranian delegation was said to have walked out of talks following Trump's renewed threats to resume bombing them if a deal is not reached and if they don't stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. However, the reports that gradually followed were more encouraging as mediators stated that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere and technical talks are to continue for the remainder of the week, with the US and Iran agreeing to a de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Furthermore, the parties agreed to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation and on a roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days, while Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed that mediation delivered major progress to end the Lebanon war, as well as stated that oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade is lifted, frozen assets released, and that a major reconstruction and development plan was launched for Iran. ASX 200 struggled for direction as strength in gold miners and financials was offset by weakness in tech, energy and defensives. Nikkei 225 extended on record highs and rallied firmly above the 72,000 level as exporters benefited from a weaker currency and a pullback in oil, although the index has pared some of the gains, but comfortably remained the outperformer. KOSPI swung between gains and losses amid a divergence between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, in which the latter took over the throne as South Korea’s largest Co. by market cap. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with sentiment not helped by trade frictions after China added 10 US firms to its export control list and announced to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities, while there was a lack of surprises from the announcement that the benchmark Loan Prime Rates were maintained for a 13th consecutive month.

Top Asian News

• The Japanese Government is reportedly planning to deploy JPY 68tln in public and private funding for the semiconductor sector by FY 2040, TV Asahi reported citing sources.
• Australia's Agricultural Minister said testing has confirmed H5 bird flu detected in a second bird found in Western Australia.
• China's Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said risk of fragmented supply chains is growing and that some countries abuse use of export controls, adds China is anchor of stability and propeller of the global economy. said: Can work with all sides to build inclusive supply chains.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary, but declines to comment on particular forex rates.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) began the session on a muted footing, as markets digest the volatile geopolitical situation (see above). European sectors began the session mixed. Tech tops the pile with ASML +1.5% after it denied shipping EUV lithography machines, or any related component, to China, following US Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s accusations. Citi this morning wrote “we find it very hard to believe that they would jeopardise their position in the industry”. The sectoral laggard is Construction, one of its largest constituents Holcim -1.0% (9% weighting), after RBC downgraded Holcim’s PT, citing the completion of the acquisition of Xella and an update to Q2 results model

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer announces he will step down; nominations for Labour leader will open on 9th July, conclude by end-summer; will act as caretaker until new leader elected. Will fully support whoever takes over.
• UK PM's Chief of Staff resigns, New Statesman reported.
• UK Minister Smith said "I would have been very happy for him to continue", in reference to PM Starmer.
• UK Foreign Minister Cooper urges UK PM Starmer to resign, according to Sky News.
• Ireland said EU capital markets deal is possible by year end, according to FT.
• Italian PM Meloni called out US President Trump for “senseless”, “constant, unprovoked attacks”, while she said that Trump’s statements are completely made up and she doesn’t know why he behaves like this towards allies, after Trump told an Italian TV channel that Meloni begged him to take a picture with her and that he wouldn’t have taken it, but he felt sorry for her. Furthermore, Trump criticised Italy and its PM for not becoming involved with Iran and its nuclear threat.

FX

• DXY is firmer against all peers as it stabilises towards recent highs above 100. JPY is the underperformer after unsuccessful jawboning attempts, NOK holds on to gains after crude gapped higher at the re-open.
• USD-specific drivers are light, focus overnight was on geopolitics with US-Iran talks over the weekend whipsawing crude benchmarks. The main data point this week is PCE on Thursday, the session today sees remarks from Fed's Waller, aside from this, the session is likely to be quiet and driven by geopolitical moves in oil/yields. DXY gapped higher at the APAC re-open and rose throughout the European morning to a peak of 101.01. Since this peak, the index has slipped and now more towards the unchanged mark.
• UK PM Starmer announces he will step down, remaining as a caretaker until a new leader is elected (Nominations begin on 9th July). Burnham is overwhelmingly considered as the front-runner, with GBP and Gilts seeing underperformance in recent weeks. There was no reaction to the announcement from Starmer himself, as it had been widely touted in recent days/weeks, especially following Burnham's convincing victory in the Makerfield by-election. Given Burnham is nearly certain to become the next PM, focus is on his cabinet appointments, specifically his Chancellor pick. Over the weekend, the FT and Times made it clear that Miliband would be the least market friendly, citing comments from FTSE 100 executives; retaining Reeves would be the most market-friendly option, though the same outlets noted Burnham would likely want to remove the current Chancellor in a shift away from the last administration. GBP/USD -0.1% and tracking the stronger Buck. EUR/GBP +0.1%, gapped higher at the APAC re-open, but reversed most gains.
• JPY continues to underperform and moves further into intervention territory as USD/JPY looks towards 161.81 highs made last week. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama was on the wires overnight, said they were “ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary”; not sparking a move in the Yen. USD/JPY marked a session high of 161.78, looking to the aforementioned levels to the upside; awaiting further comments from Japanese officials.
• South African Parliamentary Speaker Didiza plans to support President Ramaphosa’s bid to halt his impeachment proceedings.

Central Banks

• Japan's PM Takaichi said expect BoJ to closely coordinate with the government and conduct a monetary policy appropriately to achieve the 2% price goal.
• BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said takes some time for policy to have an impact on the economy. said:. Pass-through from oil prices to downstream goods has progressed somewhat rapidly. Recent easing of Middle East tensions doesn't deviate much from their April outlook. Accommodative conditions are expected to continue. Risks of price overshoot could materialise if there is a delay in the necessary adjustment in the degree of monetary easing. Will closely monitor impacts that raising policy interest rates may have on businesses and households.
• ECB's Escriva warns that rising oil and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict are feeding into consumer prices and could cause wage spillovers. said energy cost increases are already transmitting through areas such as transport services. ECB must monitor possible second-round wage effects depending on inflation persistence.
• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%).
• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%).
• SNB adjusts remuneration of sight deposits; lowering threshold factor from 15 to 13.5; effective August 1st 2026.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks are mixed. USTs in the red by around 10 ticks, but off a 109-07 trough by another five.
• USTs lower as a function of catch-up from the holiday session on Friday, and as the complex acknowledged the gap higher in energy at the resumption of trade after Iran seemingly shut Hormuz transit amid ongoing conflict in Lebanon. However, the updates from negotiators thereafter and as technical talks take place this week in Switzerland, points that allowed energy to retreat and gave relief to EGBs. USTs look ahead to remarks from Fed’s Waller.
• Bunds, as above, benefited from the energy retreat in the second half of the APAC session and are firmer by around 10 ticks, but a similar amount shy of the 126.34 high. Specifics light for the complex, no move to ECB commentary thus far, and we now await text from Lagarde at the ECON hearing.
• Additionally, Germany digests reports into another meeting of the pensions committee today. The main point from it being that the retirement age will increase, though not at the pace some have been seeking. More broadly, Politico reports budget progress, however, tax reform remains the major outstanding point.
• Last but not least Gilts, lower by 10 ticks and a similar amount of the low in 88.30-72 confines after gapping higher by 24 ticks, seemingly taking relief from numerous reports that the team around Burnham no longer saw Miliband as the favourite for Chancellor.
• Since, PM Starmer has resigned. He will serve as caretaker during the process which begins in three weeks and will last for no more than one week, 9th-16th July. Burnham is the clear favourite. However, the three weeks between now and the start of that process could potentially see the odds around Burnham and theoretical rivals, i.e. Streeting, change notably.

Geopolitics

• A very busy geopolitical weekend, which initially saw the Iranians shut the Strait of Hormuz, and it suggested that the US and Israel broke the interim ceasefire agreement amid the continued military strikes on southern Lebanon. This led Brent Aug’26 to gap higher by c. USD 2/bbl, to a session peak of USD 82.30/bbl. Attention then turned to US-Iran talks in Switzerland.
• The outcome of the initial talks were positive. A Qatari and Pakistani joint statement stated that US and Iran agreed to set up a de-confliction cell over Lebanon and agreed to establish a high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. The high-level committee also agreed to a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days.
• Following the positive mood music from the talks, Brent Aug’26 gradually moved off best levels and turned negative; currently lower by c. 1.1%, and at the bottom end of a USD 78.58-82.30/bbl range. Attention remains on further developments on the negotiation process, which is expected to continue throughout the week. For now, the heads of the delegation team have headed back to Iran, while technical teams will remain in Switzerland to follow up the implementation of the MoU.
• Spot gold (+0.8%) is in the green, benefiting from the disinflationary implications of the positive geopolitical mood music. XAU/USD is currently holding within a USD 4136-4221/oz range. On analyst commentary: Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40T a month in 2027.
• Base metals are broadly firmer this morning vs a mostly negative APAC session. Focus overnight remained on China adding US firms to its export control list and decided to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. 3M LME Copper currently resides within a USD 13,598.28-13,736.93/t range.
• "Confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone rose sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 total transits recorded", Kpler's Bakr reported.
• Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50 T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40 T a month in 2027.
• US Department of Agriculture announces three new cases of screwworm to take total number of domestic detections to 15 cases.
• Iraq asked operators of five major oil fields to boost output to pre-war levels, targeting output of more than 3mln bpd, while it was separately reported that Iraq intends to gradually increase oil production to between 4.2mln-4.3mln bpd, according to the deputy oil minister for upstream affairs.
• Qatar’s Interior Ministry reported an internal explosion at a factory in the Ras Laffan Industrial Area, although no injuries or leaks were reported.
• A fire occurred in Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay refinery (631k bpd) but was extinguished.
• Guinea’s President Doumbouya announced a ban on raw gold exports, in an effort to boost local processing of the metal and help the domestic economy.

Trade/Tariffs

• Iranian delegation is set to travel to Tehran after talks in Switzerland.
• India's Trade Minister said they intend to secure preferential market access via a trade agreement with the US. Signing of a US-India trade agreement will take longer than expected, because the US initially imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods.
• China's MOFCOM issues action plan on strengthening foreign Investment; to support qualified key foreign firms listing on domestic exchanges.
• China added 10 US firms to its export control list including USA Rare Earths, while the Finance Ministry announcing to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities.
• USTR Greer is to travel to India and Uzbekistan, while he will discuss the US-India joint statement as part of bilateral trade agreement talks.

US Event Calendar

• 9:00 am: Fed’s Waller Delivers Opening Remarks

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For those in Europe and parts of the US this week I hope you can cope with the expected extreme heat. The UK is certainly not ready for what's about to hit us. I'm looking to exploit this and set up my own AI company. Aircon Installations. Please enquire for the best prices and for the IPO launching soon!

Talking of extreme heat, the latest developments out of the Middle East have turned more constructive after a highly volatile start to the weekend. Encouraging progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, has seen both sides agree overnight to a roadmap towards a potential deal within 60 days, alongside the creation of technical working groups, a de conflict mechanism covering Lebanon, and a direct communication line aimed at avoiding incidents and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. This marks a notable shift from Saturday’s confusion, when Iran suggested the strait was now closed again after Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and briefly stepped back from talks following renewed threats from President Trump, who reiterated that the US would strike again if Iranian-backed proxies in Lebanon continue attacks on Israel. Despite that rhetoric, oil flows through Hormuz have continued and even picked up over the weekend, helping to calm markets, with Brent reversing earlier gains this morning before details of the talks came through. What the overall positive weekend has perhaps taught us is that the path to a durable resolution remains fragile.

However, for now Brent crude (-1.61%) is reversing its earlier gains, currently trading at $79.27 per barrel. Asian equities are not seeing a clear trend with the Nikkei (+1.56%) notably higher, but with the KOSPI fairly flat after being up +2% earlier in the session. The Shanghai Comp is +0.18%, while the Hang Seng is down -0.98%. China's central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rates for the 13th consecutive month overnight.

10-year USTs have increased by +3.2 bps, trading at 4.49% as cash trading has resumed following Friday's US holiday. 2yr yields are +4.7bps. US equity futures are down around half a percentage point but that's roughly where they were for a lot of Friday when the cash market was closed.

The main data highlights this week are the global flash PMIs tomorrow, and the US core PCE on Thursday. Elsewhere, other data of interest include the Ifo survey in Germany (Wednesday), Tokyo CPI in Japan (Friday), and CPI reports in Canada (today) and Australia (Wednesday). Note there is much speculation around whether UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will resign this week after leadership rival Andy Burnham’s by-election win last week. The Observer newspaper yesterday reported that Starmer was preparing to set out a timetable for his departure, with an announcement possible today. If true it’s notable it's happening on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote tomorrow, something the UK still hasn’t come to terms with. Since then, the UK has revolved through six Prime Ministers which alongside Brexit, underlines the immense difficulties many incumbents have in the Western World today. Everyone arrives in the post with great hopes but then the lack of growth and the financial realities hit. Until you have stronger economic growth and are less constrained by debt it’s highly likely the conveyor belt of PMs will continue.

On this, the Deutsche Bank Research Institute will be pleased to welcome you to our London offices on Thursday (11:30 refreshments for a 12-1 presentation) for a look at “Brexit 10 years on: Whats’s worked, what hasn’t, what’s next?”. I’ll be introducing Sanjay Raja and Shreyas Gopal in what looks set to be a fascinating week for the UK. 

Moving over to the other side of the Atlantic, after a hawkish FOMC last week with a clear shift in style from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, our economists now have two 25bps hikes in their Fed forecast. They have warned that the US economy needed tighter policy but were waiting for the meeting to confirm the tightening view. The central scenario sees two rate increases this year, likely in September and December, taking the fed funds rate to around 4.1%, followed by a prolonged pause through 2027. Easing is then expected to resume in the first half of 2028, with around 50 basis points of cuts, potentially delivered in March and June, bringing policy back towards a neutral range of roughly 3.5–3.75%. See their piece explaining their view here.

In terms of the US week ahead, our economists expect appearances by Williams and Goolsbee on Thursday to be particularly informative. Williams, who also serves as Vice Chair of the FOMC, is seen as one of those not currently predicting a hike this year, while Goolsbee is viewed as leaning towards around 50 basis points of tightening.

Earlier that day, attention will centre on the data flow. US economists expect May personal income to rise by around 0.4% (from flat previously) and consumption to increase by 0.6% (from 0.5%). The core PCE deflator is projected to rise by around 0.37% month-on-month, up from 0.24%. On this basis, the year-on-year rate would move higher to approximately 3.44%, marking the strongest reading since October 2023 and reinforcing the narrative of persistent underlying inflation. The Fed will also release its bank stress test results on Wednesday and there is other second tier data.

Over in Europe, in addition to the PMIs, sentiment indicators in Germany will include the Ifo survey (Wednesday) and the July GfK consumer confidence print (Thursday). In France, there will be business confidence tomorrow and consumer confidence on Thursday. Finally, the ECB will release its May consumer expectations survey on Friday, with inflation expectations in focus. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde amongst others.

In Asia, inflation prints due include the Tokyo CPI for June on Friday in Japan (see our Chief Japan’s economist week-ahead here) and Australia’s May CPI due Wednesday (DB forecast for headline CPI is -0.4% MoM / 4.3% YoY). Other notable data features BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its June meeting (Wednesday), Australia’s labour force survey (Thursday) and the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates in China (Monday).

Finally, there will be a few notable earnings reports out next week, including FedEx, Cerebras and Carnival tomorrow as well as Micron and Jefferies on Wednesday. Micron is up around 830% over the last year and around 250% since the end of March with a market cap of nearly $1.3tn. So it’s becoming one to follow from the macro side.  

Recapping last week, oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%.  

But even as inflation expectations fell, the Fed’s latest decision on Wednesday led to a clear hawkish repricing for markets. Notably, 9 of the 18 officials in the dot plot signalled there should be a rate hike this year, although new Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot himself. But Warsh did reiterate the Fed’s inflation target, pledging to return inflation to target after five years above. Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan delivered a 25bp rate hike, taking their policy rate to a post-1995 high of 1%.  

That backdrop meant markets brought forward their expectations for a Fed rate hike. So by the end of the week, 39bps of Fed hikes were priced in by December, up from 21bps at the start of the week. In turn, that led to a flattening in the Treasury yield curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +9.6bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) fell to 4.45%. A similar pattern was evident globally, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+2.7bps) up to 2.64%, whilst the 10yr yield (-1.0ps) fell to 2.98%.  

Whilst equities saw a pullback after the Fed decision, they still ended the week higher as concern about a stagflationary shock faded. So the S&P 500 was up +0.93%, Europe’s STOXX 600 was up +0.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei surged by +7.92%, marking its biggest weekly jump since August 2024. The moves were supported by the ongoing rebound in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.26% to a new record.

Recapping last week now and oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%.

But even as inflation expectations fell, the Fed’s latest decision on Wednesday led to a clear hawkish repricing for markets. Notably, 9 of the 18 officials in the dot plot signalled there should be a rate hike this year, although new Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot himself. But Warsh did reiterate the Fed’s inflation target, pledging to return inflation to target after five years above. Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan delivered a 25bp rate hike, taking their policy rate to a post-1995 high of 1%.  

That backdrop meant markets brought forward their expectations for a Fed rate hike. So by the end of the week, 39bps of Fed hikes were priced in by December, up from 21bps at the start of the week. In turn, that led to a flattening in the Treasury yield curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +9.6bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) fell to 4.45%. A similar pattern was evident globally, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+2.7bps) up to 2.64%, whilst the 10yr yield (-1.0ps) fell to 2.98%.

Whilst equities saw a pullback after the Fed decision, they still ended the week higher as concern about a stagflationary shock faded. So the S&P 500 was up +0.93%, Europe’s STOXX 600 was up +0.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei surged by +7.92%, marking its biggest weekly jump since August 2024. The moves were supported by the ongoing rebound in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.26% to a new record.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 08:26

Alan Greenspan, Longtime Fed Chair And "Maestro" Of Markets, Dies At 100

Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman who led the central bank from 1987 to 2006, under four presidents, died at 100 from complications of Parkinson's disease, NBC News reported.

Greenspan became known as the "maestro" of monetary policy, spanning one of the longest and strongest economic expansions in U.S. history, marked by booming stocks, rising home prices, low unemployment, and confidence that he could steer markets through financial crises.

"Alan passed away at our home this morning at the age of 100 from complications of Parkinson's disease," stated his wife of 29 years, Andrea Mitchell, who is the chief Washington correspondent and chief foreign affairs correspondent for NBC News.

Mitchell said, "He was a giant of a man who helped shape the U.S. economy for decades under presidents of both parties, but was always honest in acknowledging his mistakes."

"To me he was my husband, who shaped my life from our very first date in 1984. He had 'irrational exuberance' for baseball, the Washington Commanders, tennis, golf and music, especially jazz," Mitchell continued, adding, "He will be remembered for his brilliance and his kindness. Being his life partner was the joy of my life."

Greenspan's legacy came into question in the final years of his term. The maestro was reluctant to confront asset bubbles, and his hands-off approach to the mortgage and derivatives markets helped inflate the housing bubble leading up to the financial crisis of 2008.

Greenspan later acknowledged errors in his free-market assumptions...

"Those of us who have looked to the self- interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders' equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief," the maestro told lawmakers in 2008.

Greenspan also told lawmakers, "I was right 70% of the time, but I was wrong 30% of the time."

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission's final report stated:

"More than 30 years of deregulation and reliance on self-regulation by financial institutions, championed by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and others, supported by successive administrations and Congresses, and actively pushed by the powerful financial industry at every turn, had stripped away key safeguards, which could have helped avoid catastrophe."

Greenspan's tenure was the second-longest for a Fed chief, right behind that of William McChesney Martin Jr. He was succeeded by Ben Bernanke, who eventually kept rates at the uncharted "zero lower bound" territory for several years to stimulate the economy after the GFC.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 08:10

Ship Traffic Through Hormuz Chokepoint Continues As Normalization Efforts Remain "Fragile"

U.S. and Iranian negotiators concluded a lengthy initial round of technical talks, backed by Qatar and Pakistan, with early progress reported. Still, the diplomatic road to a permanent peace deal remains fragile. For now, despite Tehran declaring on Sunday that the Strait was "closed," millions of barrels of crude continue to exit the Persian Gulf through the critical maritime chokepoint. 

Bloomberg reports that five laden oil tankers carrying a combined 8 million barrels were seen entering or moving through the strait along the southern part of the Hormuz near Oman's coast before switching off their transponders. One tanker reappeared hours later in the Gulf of Oman, marking a safe passage.

The transits suggest CENTCOM's claim that U.S. forces can keep the Omani-side corridor of the maritime chokepoint open, despite Iran's assertion that only the northern, Tehran-approved route is permitted.

 Safe passage through the international waterway remained intact today as 55 merchant ships transited, moving large amounts of cargo and more than 17 million barrels of oil to global markets," CENTCOM wrote on X on Saturday morning.

Kpler: 

Hormuz uptick remains fragile

Strait of Hormuz crossings rebounded sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 confirmed transits and a weekend peak of 35 on 20 June, supported by the blockade lift and renewed free-passage signals. Commercial crossings recovered with AIS transponder ons,… pic.twitter.com/2YnT6kTnU3

— Kpler (@Kpler) June 22, 2026

Windward:

🚨 Strait of Hormuz Status Update | June 22

Windward tracked 25 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past 12 hours: 10 inbound and 15 outbound.

Notable traffic:
→ Multiple OFAC-sanctioned tankers linked to Iran's sanctions program transiting outbound,… pic.twitter.com/D4Czk5ygVl

— Windward (@WindwardAI) June 22, 2026

Several India-linked tankers carrying roughly 6 million barrels of Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude appeared to have used the Iran-approved northern route near Qeshm Island, possibly before Iran's latest closure announcement on Sunday.

A separate report from Bloomberg says four liquefied natural gas tankers - either owned or chartered by Qatar - transited the narrow waterway as the restart of Ras Laffan, the world's biggest LNG export plant, begins to ramp up.

Even Iran has ramped up oil exports, as three US-sanctioned supertankers (Elva, Virgo, and Vigor) entered the Hormuz chokepoint earlier this morning. Those tankers are destined for Singapore, with likely ship-to-ship transfers slated for the end delivery in China. This comes as the US lifts the blockade on the waterway against Iran.

Bloomberg data shows that total ship transits (using AIS data) in the maritime chokepoint, whether east-west or west-east, have steadily increased since an interim peace deal between the US and Iran was signed earlier last week.

Citi analyst Luis Costa told clients earlier that "the dominant global macro driver remains the US-Iran conflict and its partial resolution. Announcement of the interim Hormuz MOU last week set off a cascading repricing across oil, EM FX, inflation expectations, and rate paths."

Brent crude futures traded in the $79 a barrel range early Monday, while WTI futures were around $75.

Talk on Hormuz normalization this morning comes from Piper Sandler analyst Jan Stuart: "The 14-point 'peace-in-our-time MoU' unblocks some 150+ million barrels of stranded crude oil, now available for immediate sale."

Related:

• Asian Refiners Swamped, Brace For Over 60 Million Barrels Of Oil Ready To Exit Hormuz

On Friday, Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs' co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients, "We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre- war levels by the end of July."

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 07:45

Russian Drone Strike Sets Turkish Cargo Ship Ablaze In Black Sea, Killing One

An international cargo vessel traversing the Black Sea erupted in flames when it was struck by a Russian drone attack early Monday morning, killing one crew member.

The Turkish-owned bulk carrier VICTRESS, which sails under a Panamanian flag, suffered severe damage, the Ukrainian Navy and the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA) confirmed in the aftermath.

Ukrainian naval image of Turkish vessel up in flames.

A maritime rescue operation ensued fairly quickly, with most of the crew evacuated safely to a life raft; however, a 58-year old crew member perished.

“Sadly, a member of the crew died. We extend our sincere condolences to his family and loved ones. The remaining eight sailors were evacuated on a life raft,” the USPA said.

Such Black Sea deadly drone incidents against foreign vessels off Ukraine are on the uptick. For example just a couple days ago regional sources reported:

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drones targeted two civilian merchant vessels in the Black Sea, one flying Panama’s flag and the other St. Kitts and Nevis’. A sailor aboard the Panama-flagged ship was killed, two were injured—one critically—while three crew on the St. Kitts and Nevis vessel sustained minor injuries. Both ships resumed their voyages after receiving assistance, but the incident underscores the vulnerability of civilian shipping in contested waters.

 Black Sea transit continues to be a dangerous prospect, also with naval mines long being a feature of the 4+ year long war.

Because of this, international reports have frequently noted at various moments of the last couple years, "War insurance costs for ships sailing to the Black Sea have spiked again, with insurers reviewing policies daily as the conflict in Ukraine spills into sea lanes."

But the attacks have gone the other way too, with Ukraine's Navy at various times having intercepted or attacked vessels deemed part of Russia's sanctions-evading 'dark fleet'.

⚡️ Russian drones struck civilian vessels bound for Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea

According to Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba, a drone attack set a Panama-flagged cargo ship on fire. A 58-year-old Egyptian cook was killed, while eight crew members, including… pic.twitter.com/6Y0fy6M8rj

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) June 22, 2026

After some of these recent attacks on Russia-importing or exporting vessels, President Putin vowed to step up punishing aerial attacks on Ukraine. The two sides are still locked in a devastating tit-for-tat aerial war.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 06:55

Is The AI Spending Boom Creating A Depreciation Time Bomb?

Via City AM,

• Big Tech's AI spending has exploded, with Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta collectively investing hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure.

• Rapid technological change may shorten the economic life of AI servers and GPUs, increasing depreciation and replacement costs.

• The long-term profitability of AI will depend not only on demand growth but also on whether companies can justify the enormous ongoing capital requirements.

The eye-watering capital expenditure plans of Big Tech has been one of the year’s biggest stories. 

Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft have all splurged to secure a podium spot in the race to build out the infrastructure that will run the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.

Total capex by these four firms is expected to reach $750bn (£560bn) this year, around half the annual spending of the entire UK government. It is much higher than this high-tech quartet has budgeted for before. And it is expected to be even higher next year.

Shareholders are on board with the plan, up to a point.

Since 2023, the average share price across the four firms has doubled. But that hasn’t kept pace with the average quarterly capex budgets, which have roughly quadrupled over the same period.

These trillion-dollar businesses can’t be too far away from hitting a ceiling on growing their computing power. 

Firstly, because of physical constraints – things like the supply of chips and the availability of power and water infrastructure – with the latter beginning to come under genuine constraint in some parts of the developed world.

Secondly, because of the sheer build cost, given that most AI projects are far from hitting profitability, and there isn’t enough cash flow elsewhere to fill the hole.

Alphabet, Google’s parent company, has raised $85bn on its own in debt over the past year. It plans to raise another $80bn in equity over the coming months – an unprecedented fundraise and not something it can keep doing forever.

Getting older faster

Most of the focus has been on data centre build-out. But there is also another major factor, and one in danger of being overlooked: maintenance.

The cost of keeping AI running once the infrastructure is in place will be vital. 

Data centre servers tend to last in the region of three to six years before they have to be replaced.  Given the speed of innovation and intensity of compute needed for AI, you can expect that to skew towards the lower end of the range for the hyperscalers. 

The kit inside AI data centres accounts for as much as two-thirds of the build cost. Add replacement costs onto the capex projections over the next few years, and things start to look scarily expensive.

Annual depreciation of property and equipment across the four firms has almost doubled over the past two years to $116bn.  You can expect that to accelerate, given how much equipment has been added to their balance sheets over the past 18 months.

Last year, Amazon cut the expected useful life of its data centre assets from six years to five, a move which it said was “due to the increased pace of technology development, particularly in the area of artificial intelligence and machine learning.” 

So far, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet have yet to follow suit, sticking with six years, but it seems like only a matter of time before they capitulate and cut this back, pushing up depreciation costs even further.

Something has got to give – sooner or later. Or am I missing something?

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 06:30