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How The Trump Admin Achieved Record Drug Seizures

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

SAN DIEGO - As the flood of illegal immigrants at the southern border slowed to a trickle, agents shifted gears. Now, they're focused on seizing drugs - in record amounts - as the border is more secure than ever, officials told The Epoch Times.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) took The Epoch Times behind the scenes at the border between San Diego and Mexico - home to the San Ysidro Port of Entry, the busiest land border crossing in the Western Hemisphere.

The San Diego sector, patrolled by thousands of federal officers, encompasses more than 56,000 square miles. That includes 60 linear miles of international boundary between the United States and Mexico, and an additional 931 miles of coastal border stretching from the California-Mexico line north to Oregon.

Officers said the success they're experiencing - not just in drug seizures, but also in fewer illegal immigrants entering the country - stems from the Trump administration's tough border policies.

"Without having four or five hundred people in detention making an asylum claim, I'm going to take those officers and say, 'I don't need you to process asylum claims, I need you out there looking for dope, looking for people smuggling, looking for those agriculture violations,'" Mariza Marin, port director at the San Ysidro Port of Entry, told The Epoch Times.

Marin said she was able to move about 180 officers from handling administrative work processing illegal immigrants to enforcement and inspection.

"That's huge; 180 individuals is huge," said Sidney Aki, San Diego director of field operations.

The Evidence

Under the Biden administration, total drug seizure amounts for fiscal years 2024 and 2023 were 573,000 and 549,000, respectively.

In 2025, the first year of the Trump administration, drug seizures were slightly more, at 583,000.

But border agents seized 516,000 pounds of drugs from October 2025 through April 2026 alone. That's the first seven months of the current fiscal year for CBP, meaning five months remain for the agency to extend those numbers. And historically, summer months tend to yield higher seizure amounts, according to Department of Homeland Security data.

In April, agents seized 185,000 pounds of illegal narcotics, the biggest monthly seizure since officials began to track totals.

U.S Customs and Border Protection agents monitor border traffic outside of San Diego on May 26, 2026. Agents who had previously been tied up processing a flood of illegal immigrants under the Biden administration are seizing significant amounts of illegal narcotics compared to years prior. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Last month, CBP announced its office of field operations had seized a historic amount of fentanyl: about 100 million lethal doses from October 2025 through May this year. According to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, a lethal dose of fentanyl is about two milligrams.

"When you look at the point of where we are now compared to the course we were on previously, we are increasing our numbers and seizures," Aki said.

Methamphetamine and cocaine seizures are also surpassing previous numbers.

This fiscal year, CBP officers have seized more than 152,000 pounds of methamphetamine, eclipsing seizures for all of fiscal year 2025. They've seized more than 28,000 pounds of cocaine, surpassing fiscal year 2025 to date by about 6,000 pounds.

Federal Backing

While policy changes on immigration and the border have led to the refocusing of personnel, a top-to-bottom support system from the Trump administration has also created high morale and motivation for federal officers, they said.

Border enforcement and security, which is "emphasized significantly with this administration," continues to increase, Aki said.

Since Trump returned to the White House, he has signed executive actions designating cartels as terrorist organizations and fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed nearly a year ago, allocated $170 billion for border security and immigration enforcement initiatives.

On June 10, Trump signed a roughly $70 billion bill to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol. The Secure America Act ended a 116-day dispute over immigration funding.

The measure will fund ICE and Border Patrol through Sept. 30, 2029, going beyond the end of Trump's term.

Enforcement At An Entry Point

The Epoch Times witnessed how agents at a port of entry carry out their tasks.

The massive San Ysidro Port of Entry has a total of 34 lanes, which are funneled into seven upon entry, and two separate pedestrian walkways that allow travelers to cross the international boundary by foot.

About 42,000 to 47,000 vehicles cross per day, Marin said.

Taking into account the number of passengers in each vehicle, commercial trucks, and pedestrians, the total number of individuals entering the United States through the crossing each day likely eclipses 100,000.

The vetting process to ensure each of these travelers is abiding by U.S. law starts with what federal agents call the "primary" or "technology zone," immediately adjacent to the international boundary.

But, with the help of Mexican authorities, intelligence gathering and enforcement can extend beyond that.

Coordination with Mexico is the best it's ever been, the officials said. Sometimes, their Mexican law enforcement counterparts intercept bad actors before they even reach the U.S. border, said Justin De La Torre, chief patrol agent for the San Diego Sector.

However, with so many thousands of vehicles and individuals seeking to enter the United States each day, things can slip by Mexican authorities.

That's when the primary or technology zone comes into play. The zone is where an intelligence package begins to be built on travelers.

Border patrol agents take pictures of each car, its driver, and any passengers. Radiation portal monitors scan vehicles to ensure there are no radiological threats. This technology, Marin said, has a very low alarm threshold - for good reason.

By the time a traveler reaches a primary officer for what the agents call an "interview" before entering the country, they already know who the traveler is, their crossing history, potential criminal history, vehicles they've driven across the border, people they've crossed with, and more.

"It could be a driver that nine times we saw him in a Versa, and then we see him in a Fiat," Marin said. "'Where'd you get this car?' So the officers are trying to build that picture, and that's part of the interview."

An officer's instinct plays a major role during the interview process in catching violators.

What might appear to be innocent questions or small talk, Aki said, is actually agents trying "to poke holes" into your story. "Why did you go to Mexico? Why are you coming to the United States? Whose car is this? Why are you bringing that?'"

Meanwhile, officers are looking for physical signs that could point to nefarious activity: indicators of nervousness such as fidgeting, white knuckling, and avoiding eye contact.

Intelligence packages are also used for commercial trucks entering the United States.

Intelligence plays a massive role in intercepting large drug smuggling attempts and preventing further ones, Aki said. It can point to previous loads a truck has carried, where it came from, who loaded it, who has operated it, and whether it has ever had any compliance violations.

Marin and Aki credited intelligence with a massive methamphetamine seizure from three separate trucks over the span of a week.

"It was basically in flower pots, cement, as well as flat-screen televisions," Aki said. The seizure was based on intelligence gathering that suggested a nefarious connection and prompted further inspection. Ultimately, officers intercepted nearly 9,000 pounds of methamphetamine, Aki said.

In an example at the Texas border, officers discovered 307 hidden packages in a tractor-trailer hauling lettuce from Mexico.

Sidney Aki, director of field operations for U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s San Diego Field Office, monitors border crossings at the San Ysidro Port of Entry on May 26, 2026. Aki and other officials told The Epoch Times the border is more secure now than at any point in their careers, and in U.S. history. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 21:30

"Only The Beginning": How To Profit From The Asymmetric Warfare Boom

Low-cost kamikaze drones are fundamentally reshaping the modern battlefield and forcing militaries to rethink procurement strategies built around expensive, high-end weapons systems.

In the Middle East, US Special Forces learned the hard way that cheap Iranian Shahed-style drones can eliminate multi-million-dollar (if not billion-dollar) communications, radar, and command-and-control nodes.

The result of this Iranian offensive with cheap drones, which exposed a missing air-defense layer over high-value U.S. military communications systems across the Gulf region, will trigger a defense procurement reset. The U.S. military is now racing to source, order, and stockpile low-cost one-way attack drones, interceptors, and counter-UAS systems before the next conflict erupts - or US-Iran ceasefire blows up.

Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries is now arriving at the same conclusion we have been highlighting:

We anticipate one of the biggest lessons of the 2020s will be how affordable drone technology fundamentally reshaped the modern combat environment and set the stage for a reevaluation of the procurement, organization and strategy of ~$3T in annual global military expenditures.

While drones have existed in the modern military apparatus for decades at this point, it was the Ukraine war (as one of the first near-peer conflicts in recent memory) which provided demonstrable evidence of how specifically lightweight and affordable systems could change the paradigm of combat.

Jeffries provided clients with a detailed overview of the nine public and nineteen private companies powering America's emerging drone industry. His takeaway: this is still the early chapters of a market set for massive growth, as the U.S. military and allied nations push the procurement cycle into higher gear next year and through the end of the decade.

He sees the first wave of the market centered on inexpensive UAS production, domestic supply chains, and rapid procurement, while the second wave will be driven by autonomy, swarming, mothership configurations, and deeper integration into command-and-control networks.

He pointed out that AI software will be as important as hardware, with platforms such as Palantir's Maven Smart System poised to turn massive drone sensor feeds into highly usable battlefield intelligence.

"With most nations averse to endure undue cost to the already punishing economics of pursuing a war, we see proliferation of Group 1-3 UAS as an inevitability and the next major technology inflection point for the aerospace and defense industry," the analyst said.

He continued: 

Democratizing asymmetric warfare; sUAS has redefined the rules of engagement. Much of modern military history has been the story of haves and have-nots, with 10 countries accounting for 72% of global military spend and dominating production of the most capable and exquisite systems. Drone technology however (and specifically small unmanned aircraft systems: sUAS) has vastly increased the accessibility and affordability of highly capable military equipment and subverted the advantage of using exquisite systems into a costly strategy. In Ukraine and Iran, drones of all sizes have become de facto standard for air campaigns launched as low-cost attritable munitions. These drones are regularly countered by more expensive defense methods: missiles, interceptors, rockets creating a challenging cost-exchange issue. Every drone launched is net dollar advantage to the belligerent firing them. With most nations averse to endure undue cost to the already punishing economics of pursuing a war, we see proliferation of Group 1-3 UAS as an inevitability and the next major technology inflection point for the aerospace and defense industry.

Jeffries lays out three key conclusions about the rapidly changing defense landscape:

Public companies flagged by Jeffries as benefiting include AeroVironment, Ondas, Red Cat, AEVEX, Redwire, Insitu and Teledyne FLIR, while private names include Anduril, Skydio, Shield AI, Quantum Systems, Performance Drone Works, DZYNE, Firestorm Labs and Neros.

An example of this technology. Meet DZYNE's BlitzBox system ... 

The American company Dzyne has introduced the BlitzBox system, a container for covertly launching a swarm of attack drones. On the outside, it looks like an ordinary cargo box, but inside, it can hold up to 100 Blitz drones, ready to launch in minutes.#DroneWars #UAS #UAV pic.twitter.com/w9aRaZYrCZ

— Drone Wars (@Drone_Wars_) May 27, 2026

He noted, "Today, most militaries are still in the earliest innings of their sUAS efforts: building defensible supply chains, refining specific designs, aligning the organizational and budgetary structure to successfully field these systems."

Follow the money...

Lessons from the Ukraine & Iranian Conflicts

Notable Drone Programs

Notable UAS Contracts

The UAS Blue List

Past, Present and Future of the Drone Operator

Swarming

Rise of Mothership Drones

In a separate note, Needham analyst Austin Bohlig noted that increasing congressional support for drones and counter-drone technologies has been reflected in the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act and related appropriations bills.

Related:

• JPM Call With Axon Reveals Race To Fortify U.S. Data Centers Against Kamikaze Drone Swarms

• Goldman Sits Down With Anduril As 'War Unicorns' Reshape Defense Tech

• "Flying Beer Cooler": Pentagon's Next Kamikaze Drone Ushers In Era Of Cheap Mass-Produced Airpower

• Congress Moves To Boost Drone Funding As "War Unicorns" See Possible Procurement Supercycle

The safe conclusion is that the public and private drone companies mentioned above are positioned to reap major rewards as military procurement cycles shift toward these low-cost systems and annual global military spending surges in the coming years.

Professional subscribers can find more war tech notes at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 20:45

Elon Musk Vs The Democrats: Outcomes Vs Process

Authored by Stephen Soukup via American Greatness,

Years ago, when my oldest son was a Boy Scout, he was asked to write a report/make a presentation on a modern American “hero.” He chose Elon Musk, and I, of course, rolled my eyes so hard they nearly popped out of my head.

I knew Musk was a successful businessman, but I also knew that he was both an advocate for and a seasoned manipulator of Big Government. Tesla, for example, received a $465 million Department of Energy loan in 2010 under the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing program, a Big Government scheme to encourage private companies to advance Big Government priorities (namely, fighting Climate Change by reducing carbon emissions). Likewise, Tesla was, at least at the time, commercially viable only because of the more than $1 billion ($7,500/vehicle) in federal EV tax credits claimed by its buyers. Without government greasing the proverbial wheels a bit, Tesla would have struggled to get the literal wheels rolling out the sales floor doors.

Moreover, Musk publicly acknowledged that he voted for Obama and presented himself as part of the “green” business revolution, men and women who could and would “do well by doing good.”

My, how things change.

Just a short decade later, Elon Musk is, indeed, regarded as a genuine hero by most on the American political Right—and by anyone who favors free enterprise—while he is loathed and actively derided by his former friends and allies on the Left. Especially this past week, after the SpaceX IPO made him the world’s first trillionaire, the Democrats and other leftists who once loved him, partnered with him, and sang his praises loudly have shown nothing but contempt for him and hatred for his inarguable business success. As the controversial Democratic Senate nominee from Maine, Graham Platner, ominously put it, “Elon Musk just became the world’s first trillionaire. Let’s make sure he’s also the last.”

How, exactly, did we get here?

The biggest part of the story is Musk’s own political evolution, which proceeded slowly, in stages, but was accelerated at a handful of inflection points.

Of these inflection points, two stand out among the others.

The first of these took place during President Biden’s first year in office.

Biden and his administration were knee-deep in pushing a new, far more aggressive climate agenda. On his first day in office, Biden issued 17 executive orders, several of which addressed climate change and other environmental matters. Most notably, he signed an order to reinstate the nation’s participation in the Paris Accords, thereby placing a policy-making emphasis on electrification and decarbonization. A big part of that effort—as would be evinced in the “Inflation Reduction Act” passed the following year—was pushing the purchase of electric vehicles. To that end, on August 4, 2021, Biden hosted an EV “summit” at the White House. He invited three EV makers—General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis—to watch him sign another executive order, this one mandating that half of all new vehicles sold in the United States by 2030 be EVs. Of the three, GM had the largest percentage of its sales derived from fully electric vehicles—1.5 percent. Ford sat at 1.3 percent, and Stellantis didn’t even have an electric vehicle for sale in the American market. Meanwhile, Tesla was the nation’s largest EV auto seller at the time, and 100 percent of its vehicles were fully electric. Yet Musk and his company were left off the Biden team’s guest list.

What GM, Ford, and Stellantis did have, of course, was the support of the United Auto Workers Union. In fact, the three also just happened to be the largest UAW employers. Tesla, by contrast, had long fought the unionization of its factories and had been embroiled in a rather ugly dispute with the UAW. In response to the snub, Musk vented a bit, tweeting:

Biden held this EV summit. Didn’t invite Tesla.

Invited GM, Ford, Chrysler, and UAW. EV summit at the White House, didn’t mention Tesla once and praised GM and Ford for leading the EV revolution.

Doesn’t it sound a little bias? It’s not the friendliest of administrations.

Seems to be controlled by the unions.

Just under a year later, Musk reached the second inflection point, which also turned out to be his breaking point.

In May 2022, the S&P 500 ESG Index conducted its annual rebalancing. And when it did, it removed Tesla.

ESG stands for “environmental, social, and governance” investing, a strategy that purports to push corporations to address issues beyond traditional profits and losses, focusing on the broader societal impacts of their operations. I wrote a whole book about ESG (The Dictatorship of Woke Capital) in which I made the case that its flaws are numerous and disqualifying. One of the most significant of these is that ESG has no set definition. It means whatever its practitioners decide it means in the moment, based on little more than preference and convenience. And this is precisely where the S&P’s index ran into problems with Tesla.

By any objective measure, Tesla should have been a mainstay of any investment strategy focused on environmental benefits. It was and is a pioneer in carbon reduction strategies in the personal transportation market. What could be more environmentally friendly than that? The S&P, however, objected to Tesla’s procedural strategies, or lack thereof. It argued that Tesla didn’t have a published “low-carbon strategy,” or verifiable “codes of conduct.” It noted that the automaker had been accused of racial discrimination and didn’t do a great job of handling a National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) investigation. In short, the ESG index tossed the innovator in “E” technology off its list of acceptable companies because it valued the process of the ESG strategy more than it did the outcomes.

Needless to say, this incensed Musk. On May 18, he (once again) tweeted his frustration:

Exxon is rated top ten best in world for environment, social & governance (ESG) by S&P 500, while Tesla didn’t make the list! ESG is a scam. It has been weaponized by phony social justice warriors.

Not coincidentally, two and a half hours later, Musk returned to Twitter to make an announcement about his partisan political future:

In the past I voted Democrat, because they were (mostly) the kindness party. But they have become the party of division & hate, so I can no longer support them and will vote Republican. Now, watch their dirty tricks campaign against me unfold . . .

It is worth noting here that Musk didn’t just switch parties. He radicalized. His change in partisan affiliation and political involvement was night and day.

He went from a quiet, nominally aligned center-leftist to a full-blown, aggressive libertarian-conservative. Instead of giving $1,000 here and $1,000 there to Democratic candidates, he started throwing money into politics as if he’d never miss it (in part because he never would). He backed Donald Trump with millions of dollars and then joined his administration (for free) as the leader and organizer of DOGE. The combination of the union-driven and the ESG-driven snubs sent him over the edge. Not only would he no longer support Democrats, but he would support their opponents loudly and generously.

Although it would be easy (and not entirely wrong) to say that Elon Musk’s political evolution was a self-inflicted wound by the Democrats, who enthusiastically chased him out of their party, it’s more accurate to say that the break between the two was a structural inevitability. That inevitability was inarguably exacerbated and hastened by Democratic overconfidence and miscalculation, but that’s the difference between Musk simply leaving the party and becoming radicalized for the other side. Musk’s shift away from Democratic politics was likely always going to happen and is emblematic of the long-standing tension between so-called “progressives” and actual progress. The ideology that once sought explicitly to “better” the nation and its people has become little more than a machine for creating rules, often at the expense of that improvement. Musk’s fervent embrace of the Democrats’ opponents was driven by personalities—theirs, his, and probably Trump’s.

Think about it this way...

 The Progressive coalition traditionally has very much resembled the S&P ESG index noted above. It has always been carefully managed, regulated, labor-friendly, bureaucratic, and procedure-driven. It has always been more about process than outcome. Musk, for his part, is the opposite. He is disruptive, as capitalist entrepreneurs tend to be. He favors that which moves fast, eschews established rubrics, and achieves results. He is outcome-driven and cares very little (sometimes, maybe, too little) about process. The idea that he and today’s Democrats could have remained strongly aligned is, in retrospect, incongruous.

That’s not to say that he and the GOP are perfectly aligned, but certainly his ethos fits better there, at least for the moment.

The bottom line here is that while process values have their place, they can be self-defeating, particularly when they are allowed to serve as a substitute for experience and reality.

The Democrats don’t hate Elon Musk because he’s a trillionaire. They hate him because he became a trillionaire by breaking all their dearly held and largely outmoded rules.

There’s a profound lesson in that, if anyone is willing to learn it.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 20:00

Here's How 45 Countries View America

America remains one of the world’s most influential countries, but public opinion of the U.S. varies widely across the globe.

Some of its strongest support now comes from emerging economies such as Vietnam, India, and the Philippines, while favorability has weakened across several longtime Western allies.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, ranks how people in 45 countries view the U.S. using January 2026 survey data from Morning Consult’s America Reputation Tracker.

Where Positive Views Are the Highest

Israel and Nigeria rank first in the survey, with 83% of respondents holding favorable views of America.

Morocco, Vietnam, and Peru round out the top five, highlighting how some of the strongest support for the U.S. now comes from outside its traditional circle of Western allies.

India has the highest favorability rating of any major economy at 62%, ranking ahead of countries such as Canada, Germany, and France.

Argentina also places in the top 10, underscoring how perceptions of America are often strongest in countries that view the U.S. as an important economic, security, or strategic partner.

The Countries Souring on America

Trade disputes and rising political tensions have weighed heavily on America’s image among many of its traditional allies.

Tariffs on Canada and Europe, criticism of NATO, suggestions that Canada could become the 51st state, and President Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland have all strained relations across the Western alliance. As a result, nine of the 10 lowest favorability ratings in the survey come from Western countries, including Canada, France, Germany, and Sweden.

In response to growing uncertainty around U.S. policy, Canada has expanded economic cooperation with Europe and sought closer engagement with China.

One of the survey’s most surprising findings is that China ranks ahead of several longstanding U.S. allies. Despite ongoing geopolitical rivalry between Washington and Beijing, America’s favorability rating in China exceeds that of countries including Canada, Belgium, and Sweden.

In other words, countries that have been America’s closest partners for decades now view it less favorably than its chief geopolitical rival.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on how much U.S. states rely on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 19:15

STRC Is Junk Credit In A Bitcoin Costume, And Retail Is Holding $8.8 Billion Of It

Authored by Glenn Cameron via BitcoinMagazine.com,

There is now $15 billion sitting in three securities being marketed to bitcoin holders as the safer, smarter way to access bitcoin exposure: Strategy’s preferred stack, STRC, and SATA.

The pitch is identical across all three.

Tax-favored. 11.5% income. Backed by bitcoin. Money-market risk. 82.7% of the buyer base is retail.

Every word of that pitch is wrong, and the security those buyers actually own is built to fail in exactly the bitcoin environment it claims to harness.

The Pitch Is a Story. The Capital Structure Is the Truth

STRC is an unsecured, subordinated, perpetual preferred equity. No maturity date. No lien on a single satoshi of Strategy’s bitcoin treasury. The dividend is discretionary, which means the board can cut it at any monthly meeting with no notice, no remedy, and no vote. S&P rates the issuer B-, four notches into junk territory. None of that information appears in the marketing.

Stack those features against the words in the pitch. “Backed by bitcoin” describes a security with no claim on a single coin. “Money-market-like” describes an instrument rated four notches below investment grade with no maturity and a discretionary coupon. “Safe income” describes a payment the board controls and the funding source for which is the security itself. Each phrase in the marketing is contradicted by the indenture.

That is not a money market fund. It is speculative-grade credit-like product dressed in safe-income marketing, and 82.7% of it sits on retail balance sheets. Of the $10.7 billion notional outstanding for STRC, roughly $8.8 billion belongs to retail bitcoin holders concentrated in a single junk credit. There is no polite phrase for that exposure. It is a bag, and retail is holding it.

The Funding Mechanism Eats Itself

The structural risk in STRC is not that the dividend is high. It is that the dividend cannot be funded out of the business. Strategy’s underlying software business produces roughly $477 million in annual revenue. Total preferred dividend obligations now exceed $1.2 billion, a ratio of 3.5 to 1. The gap is not closed by earnings. It is closed by issuing new STRC shares at or above par, or diluting common shareholders of MSTR, with the proceeds recycled to pay the existing holders.

That is a reflexive funding loop. It works when STRC trades above par and breaks the moment it doesn’t. Anything that pressures the price, a credit downgrade, a missed dividend, a bitcoin drawdown, a capital markets shutdown, removes the very mechanism the dividend depends on. There is no plan B in the indenture. There is no lien on bitcoin to seize. There is no operating cash flow to redirect. There is only the next share issuance, and the next, until either bitcoin compounds the company out of the problem or the structure jams.

Then there is the dividend ratchet. The coupon has moved monthly from 9% to 11.5%, embedding $268 million in permanent annual obligations into the structure. The rate has only ever moved in one direction. Each monthly increase makes the funding gap wider, the share issuance more dilutive, and the price floor harder to hold. The mechanism designed to keep STRC attractive to new buyers is the same mechanism that compounds the burden on the issuer and accelerates the run on the funding loop when stress arrives.

The Mythical Institutional Buyer and the Math That Buries Him

The standard defense of the Digital Credit category goes like this: surely informed institutional capital is on the other side. Insurance companies need yield. Pension funds need duration. Fixed-income desks need product. Digital Credit is the institutional bridge to bitcoin.

That defense collapses on its own logic. Any institution that allocates to an unsecured, subordinated, perpetual preferred layered on a bitcoin treasury must first underwrite the underlying asset. Any institution that does the work to underwrite bitcoin allocates directly to spot bitcoin, where the credit risk vanishes and the path-dependent fragility goes with it. The institutional buyer who is both informed and rational does not exist in this product. The buyer who does exist, at 82.7% concentration, is retail.

The path-dependency math finishes the argument. Across 5,000 simulated bitcoin paths at a 10% compounding rate, the credit model produces a 12.3% probability of formal default, a 21.9% probability of dividend deferral, and a 50.7% probability of at least one forced bitcoin sale by the issuer during the eight-year cycle. At a 15% compounding rate, STRC has a 44.6% probability of ending below $85 even on paths where bitcoin recovers to new highs.

A bitcoin holder’s terminal wealth depends only on where bitcoin ends. An STRC holder’s outcome depends on every drawdown in between, because the same mechanisms that pretend to protect the dividend in calm conditions become the mechanisms that consume the holder’s principal in stress. The product is most fragile in exactly the bitcoin scenarios the underlying asset absorbs without consequence.

Bitcoin Was Built to Kill This Exact Trade

Bitcoin’s entire reason for existing is the removal of counterparty risk, custody risk, and opacity from monetary holdings. STRC, Strategy’s preferred stack, and similar instruments reintroduce all three under a marketing layer the underlying instrument cannot support. The alternative does not require any of that machinery: bitcoin in self-custody alongside a U.S. Treasury income ladder produces the same cash profile, with more terminal wealth and no corporate issuer in between.

The market will eventually clear the difference between the security retail thinks it bought and the security it actually owns. Anyone reading the cap table and allocating anyway is willingly underwriting Saylor’s funding plan with capital that thinks it bought a money market fund.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 18:30

Is The Fed Finally Done Rescuing Markets?

 Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson is one of my favorite analysts on the street to read and gets a rare endorsement from me (I hate basically everyone selling sell-side style research) because, like my friend Mark Spiegel, he is one of the last few analysts out there that seems committed to the truth….no matter how ridiculous it makes him look in the short term while he’s waiting for his theses to play out.

Johnson came away from this week’s Fed meeting with a conclusion that would have sounded almost absurd just a few months ago: the Fed may finally be breaking with the post-2008 playbook. And the timing couldn’t be better for the Fed to do this to make a total fool out of me. After all, I literally just predicted a month ago there’s no way they would ever stop the neverending cycle of QE they started two decades ago. Days ago, I satirically wrote that the only bear case left for markets is total human extinction.

Enter Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed Chair with inflation running completely out of control. My friend GoJo makes the…err…bold claim that the Fed is not tweaking it’s post-2008 playbook…not adjusting it around the margins…breaking with it.

Johnson’s central argument is that Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair represented a repudiation of the Bernanke-Powell era and a return to a much older conception of central banking…one where the Fed’s primary job is delivering price stability, not reassuring investors, supporting asset prices, or providing a detailed roadmap for every future policy move.

The actual rate decision this past week was almost beside the point. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting. What mattered was everything around it. Warsh stripped forward guidance from the statement, calling it ill-suited to the current environment. He refused to submit his own dot-plot projection. The statement itself was shortened and reduced largely to facts. Nine of twelve participants now expect at least one hike by year-end.

Meanwhile, Warsh launched multiple task forces to reevaluate the Fed’s framework and openly emphasized the institution’s obligation to restore credibility on inflation.

Markets did not exactly celebrate at first (before, of course, turning higher on Thursday). On Wednesday, stocks sold off, gold weakened, two-year Treasury yields surged, and September hike odds nearly doubled. Investors who showed up hoping to hear some variation of “cuts are coming” instead got a lecture on inflation credibility and a reminder that the Fed’s mandate is not maximizing the S&P 500.

To Johnson, this wasn’t simply a hawkish meeting. It was the opening shot of a regime change. His view is that the modern Fed became two things after 2008. First, it became obsessed with transparency. Every possible future policy path was telegraphed through dots, forecasts, projections, speeches, press conferences, and carefully managed expectations.

Second, and more importantly what I argue all the time, is that it it became a de facto backstop for risk assets. Investors learned that serious market weakness would eventually trigger accommodation. Bad economic news became good market news because it increased the probability of Fed support.

Johnson believes Warsh is deliberately dismantling that framework. No dot. Less guidance. Fewer promises. More uncertainty. More emphasis on inflation. More willingness to surprise markets. In Gordon’s telling, the “Fed put” is not merely being questioned; it is being retired. That is a massive claim. It’s also why Johnson reaches for perhaps the biggest comparison available: Paul Volcker.

In a note out to clients this week, Johnson argues that Warsh’s intellectual instincts are fundamentally different from Bernanke’s. Bernanke’s worldview was shaped by the Great Depression and the dangers of deflation. Warsh’s appears much more shaped by the inflationary experience of the 1970s.

Johnson points to Warsh’s long-running criticism of quantitative easing, his concerns about balance-sheet expansion, and his warnings about inflation risk dating back more than a decade. He also highlights Warsh’s role during the QE2 debates, when Warsh publicly expressed skepticism about the very policies his institution was pursuing and eventually left the Board before his term expired.

In Johnson’s interpretation, today’s Warsh is the same man who spent years warning that emergency monetary policy was becoming permanent monetary policy. That’s why he sees continuity rather than reinvention. To Gordon, this isn’t a politician adopting hawkish language because it’s fashionable. It’s someone who has been making versions of the same argument for fifteen years and now finally has the votes.

This all sounds great. I hope Gordon is right. I have a sneaking suspicion that he isn’t. And before we start engraving “Volcker 2.0” onto commemorative plaques, it’s worth remembering a few things.

The first is that the easiest thing in the world for a central banker to do is talk tough. The hardest thing in the world for a central banker to do is stay tough.

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Volcker’s legacy wasn’t built on speeches, communications strategy, or symbolic changes to Fed procedures. It was built on tightening until inflation broke despite overwhelming political pressure, market turmoil, and public outrage. The real Volcker test begins when unemployment rises. The real Volcker test begins when stocks are down 25%. The real Volcker test begins when Congress starts screaming and the White House decides inflation is suddenly less important than growth.

And that has been the time where the chickenshit cowards who advocate for today’s monetary policy go into full panic mode and capitulate, sometimes on national television.

If we’re being honest, the Fed’s institutional history doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Every cycle begins with stern declarations about price stability. Every cycle begins with promises that inflation will be defeated and that credibility is paramount. Then something breaks…a bank, a market, a major employer, a politically important sector, or the broader economy itself, and suddenly the framework gets rewritten, CNBC anchors shit themselves and act like 2 year olds throwing temper tantrums, and the Fed and Treasury come to the rescue. Then, the Fed chair at the time is praised for having “courage” and wins the Nobel Prize.

The emergency becomes permanent. The temporary facility becomes structural. The exception becomes the rule. The Fed’s modern history is not one of relentless discipline. More often than not, it’s a story of capitulation followed by a very sophisticated explanation for why capitulation was actually prudent policy all along. As Peter Schiff often says, “there’s nothing more permanent than a temporary government program”.

And that’s the part of Gordon’s thesis I’m not yet willing to underwrite.

To be clear, I’m not dismissing it. In fact, I think Johnson is right to focus on the reaction function rather than the rate decision itself. A central bank’s communication framework often tells you more than a 25-basis-point move ever could. If Warsh is truly trying to reintroduce uncertainty into markets, force investors to price risk without a guaranteed backstop, and reorient the institution around inflation rather than asset prices, that would represent a profound shift.

The problem is that every Fed chair looks tough before something important breaks.

Personally, I’m not ready to declare that Warsh is picking up where Volcker left off. I am willing to wait and see. If he continues prioritizing inflation over asset prices, if he accepts market pain as a necessary consequence of restoring credibility, and if he proves willing to keep tightening in the face of inevitable pressure, then perhaps Gordon’s thesis will prove correct.

What I do think Gordon gets right is the underlying inflation question.

As I have written repeatedly, if inflation is genuinely persistent, rate hikes are ultimately necessary. There is no magic workaround. There is no AI-powered escape hatch. There is no press-conference solution. Inflation is not defeated through clever narratives or optimistic forecasts. It is defeated through tighter monetary conditions that reduce demand, re-anchor expectations, and restore confidence in the currency.

History is fairly clear on that point, which is why so many people celebrate Volcker today while simultaneously advocating policies that would make a genuine Volcker-style campaign impossible. Everyone loves inflation fighters in retrospect. Very few people are willing to tolerate the economic pain required to actually defeat inflation in real time.

That’s why I remain skeptical. Because the Fed has spent the better part of two decades teaching markets that pain will eventually be relieved. Breaking inflation is hard. Breaking expectations and psychology that has become laden with hubris and euphoria is harder, as I wrote back in early 2025. Breaking the institution’s own reflex to intervene may be hardest of all.

So yes, Gordon may be right that the Fed put is dying. He may even be right that Warsh intends to kill it. But intentions are cheap. Every Fed chair sounds independent until the pressure arrives. Every Fed chair talks about credibility until credibility becomes expensive. As Mike Tyson said famously, “everybody’s got a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

I love reading Gordon’s take and will continue to do so. But I’ll only believe the Fed put is dead when the next crisis arrives and the Fed refuses to revive it.

I’d love to hear your take on what you think Warsh’s tenure will look like in our ongoing discussion here. Who’s stance do you agree with more?

--

 

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

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As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

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Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 17:00

US Private Credit Default Rate Remains At Record High: Fitch

As we have detailed extensively, most recently here: "Blackrock's Private Credit Fund Gates Investors Again After Redemption Requests Surge ", private credit firms continue to face a flood of redemption requests...

And after this week's report from Fitch Ratings, it appears any light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train.

As Andrew Moran reports for The Epoch Times, the U.S. private credit default rate remained at a record high in May, according to the latest update from Fitch Ratings.

Private credit woes this year have taken a backseat to various headwinds and tailwinds, whether the war in Iran or SpaceX’s blockbuster debut on Wall Street.

But data suggest that pressures are still mounting for the industry.

Fitch Ratings said its Private Credit Default Rate remained at a record 6 percent in May, unchanged from the previous month.

Monitoring approximately 1,500 private credit issuers, Fitch logged 14 default events last month. Healthcare providers, business services, and industrial manufacturing each registered three events.

Six serial defaulters—issuers that have defaulted multiple times—were discovered by Fitch. Additionally, half of the default events consisted of maturity extensions under stress.

“This continued the prior month trend of maturity extensions under stress outpacing all other default scenarios,” Fitch reported.

“Five of the seven maturity extensions pushed loan maturities out by one to two years from their original maturity dates, while one extended the maturity by seven months and another extended it by one month.”

It is unclear whether the worst is over for the $2 trillion private credit sector, as more investment firms continue to see client exodus or impose capital redemption limits.

Turmoil Persists

In a recent letter to shareholders, BlackRock Private Credit Fund stated that shareholder repurchase requests reached more than 13 percent of outstanding shares in the second quarter, pushing past the investment vehicle’s 5 percent quarterly limit for the first time since it launched in June 2022.

Blackstone, the world’s largest alternative asset manager, said earlier this month that it is capping withdrawals at its flagship private credit fund as redemption requests surged in the April–June period. It reassured investors that limiting drawdowns would boost long-term gains.

Partners Group, the Swiss-listed fund manager, halted redemptions from its Global Value SICAV fund at 5 percent after withdrawal requests reached almost 10 percent.

David Layton, CEO of Partners Group, said the majority of withdrawals are coming from the retail side, which accounts for about 20 percent of overall investments.

“What you’re doing is you’re balancing the needs of certain investors—a small percentage of the fund that would like to get liquid—with the needs of the remaining segment of the investor population that would like to see that fund continue to invest and continue to compound,” Layton said in a June 3 interview with Bloomberg TV.

The Swiss private markets juggernaut later shot down reports that it would cap more fund withdrawals following a spike in drawdown requests.

“Partners Group has no intention of altering any documented liquidity mechanisms and has no plans to freeze any of its evergreen vehicles, given their portfolios are healthy and they have sufficient liquidity in line with the target allocations,” it said in a June 12 statement.

Systemic Risk ‘Less Pronounced’

Concerns that private credit could be the next subprime meltdown after 2008 and 2009 have been widespread, fueled by growing retail participation and the “SaaSpocalypse.”

Private credit is widely exposed to the software sector, accounting for up to 20 percent of its loans. When software stocks were hammered earlier in the year due to worries that artificial intelligence would upend business models, the private credit industry also took a beating.

But a chorus of market watchers argues that systemic risks are minuscule.

“Systemic risk appears far less pronounced than between sub-prime and the financial system in 2008,” LSEG analysts said in a June 15 analysis.

“We note that [private credit] largely withstood the Covid and Ukraine shocks in 2020-22 and that both lenders and borrowers are well aware of the risks involved in these loans, whence the covenant-protection is generally greater.”

Investors seem to agree, as private credit stocks joined the broader market rally over the last few days.

Still the bounce remains modest amid YTD declines...

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 16:15

AI Doomsday Warnings Distract From More Imminent AI Concerns

Authored by Daniel Nuccio via The Brownstone Institute,

AI is everywhere. It’s getting incorporated into everything. That’s simply progress, we’re told. And therefore we need to embrace it, lest we look like a Luddite and let China win (whatever that means).

Yet, simultaneously, a lot of people also are afraid because of AI. Very afraid. And sometimes, we’re told that we should be afraid too.

However, in public discourse surrounding AI, there often can be a lack of detail regarding what specifically we’re supposed to be afraid of. Sometimes it is not even clear what is meant by the term “AI.”

Technically speaking, as I have touched on previously, one could argue (as some older computer scientists do) that AI is an umbrella term for a family of algorithms based in math that sometimes dates back more than a half-century. 

Practically speaking, numerous programs we’ve been living with for years like Google Maps and Amazon’s recommender system can be thought of as AI despite their lack of novelty. Yet, in public discourse, the term AI tends to refer to generative AI (e.g, ChatGPT), as well as any number of hypothetical future programs that will do everything humans can do but better, will therefore both solve all our problems while also putting most of us out of work, and also eventually just might decide to go full Skynet on us unless they decide that we’re not worth the trouble.

(Sounds pretty sexy. Perhaps someone should make a series of movies about it. Perhaps people will even like two out of five of them.)

Unfortunately, though, these more hyperbolic, sci-fi depictions of the threat(s) posed by AI tend to get more attention than, and consequently distract from, more realistic and more imminent threats pertaining to privacy, freedom, autonomy, and even just a way of life many of us have come to enjoy. 

Automatic license plate readers, facial recognition, digital grandmothers, mandatory drunk and distracted driving detection programs, any of the technologies “grandson” was shouting about in “Autonomous Delivery Robot,” and wearable recording devices that transcribe and process in-person conversations for the anti-social and easily distracted are just of a few of the more realistic threats that come to mind. (And this by no means is a complete list).

Therefore, I tend to appreciate when members of our ruling class can take a morning to have a measured conversation about fairly well-defined threats posed by this technology (or suite of technologies), as was done at the US House of Representatives’ Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee’s June 4 meeting on the “AI Security Landscape.”  

Superficially, the meeting’s discussion could probably be framed in terms of “Is the greatest threat posed by AI an external one in the form of foreign hackers looking to exploit vulnerabilities in the software controlling the United States’ critical infrastructure or an internal one born from the lack of regulation and accountability for AI’s use at home?”

From watching the discussion, however, it seemed less like a matter of “either or” and more like an uncontested response of “Yes and…”

Sandra Joyce of Google, Frontier Model Forum executive director Chris Meserole, and Corridor Security Inc. CEO and co-founder Jack Cable provided testimony regarding how AI is transforming the cybersecurity landscape as digital weapons fall into the hands of the cyber-barbarians at the gates who will use those weapons to find vulnerabilities in our critical infrastructure and/or deploy ransomware attacks.

“This technology has impacted cybersecurity in profound ways for both the defender and the attacker,” stated Joyce.

“[H]ackers have more powerful tools than ever,” Cable noted, naming Mythos and GPT-5.5 specifically.

“These models aren’t just hype,” he warned.

“They are truly starting to rival or exceed humans on security tasks and do so at an unprecedented scale.”

Joyce suggested “threat actors” don’t even need something like Mythos and can be quite capable of doing a lot of damage with an older program.

Emphasizing the threats from within, Electronic Frontier Foundation senior policy analyst Matthew Guariglia stated, “The question is not how do we reign in AI, it’s how do we reign in the agencies that would unleash AI on the American public?”

In his testimony, Guariglia highlighted how the US national security state already uses a variety of tools that collect data on people without probable cause and that can make “inferences about a person’s politics, personal life, religion, and geolocation, sometimes inaccurately with major consequences.” 

Furthermore, Guariglia said, “AI also has a track record of getting things wrong, from false citations on legal briefs to a major AI mistake that sent DHS recruits to the field without proper training.” 

“There are likely more consequential examples that we don’t even know about because of classification that would prevent a more thorough accounting,” he added.

Similarly, Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-IL) observed, “We’re watching AI-powered monitoring systems spread to schools, to public housing, to hospitals with no transparency about how they work, no ability to challenge them, and no recourse when they’re wrong.”

In a later exchange concerning a possible scenario in which an AI program designates a city’s water supply as compromised when it is in fact fine and subsequently restricts the ability of the city’s residents to access water, Guariglia and Ramirez suggested that within the confines of current US law, transparency about how the problem occurred would likely be left up to the discretion of the city implementing the system while the question of who can be held accountable is a rather nebulous one.

Despite not quite being as sexy as battling T-800s in the streets for our lives and our livelihoods, more ransomware attacks, a further erosion of our privacy, and a lack of required transparency and accountability when HAL makes an oopsy and shuts off everyone’s water all sound pretty serious even if these things don’t quite warrant mass hysteria or a movie franchise. Perhaps they are even sufficient for reasonable concerns over the current zeitgeist to incorporate AI into everything. And maybe, just maybe, they provide reason to make us rethink our decision to connect everything in modern life to the internet.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 15:30

World Cup: Where's The Beer?

Authored by Noel Williams via AmericanThinker.com,

So far, the World Cup is living up to Gianni Infantino’s (FIFA President) clarion call to “unite the world” (or at least the participating nations therein).

Of course, that could quickly change when we get to the knockout stages of the tournament when they're more overwrought emotions and rivalries are more intense.

In the meantime, soccer fans from far-flung places are reveling in America’s beauty and bounty.

They appreciate America more than Dems, which is not surprising since most Dems are anti-American.

There are three glorious American attributes that are drawing particular praise from our World Cup visitors: the warmth and friendliness of the people (they must not be commingling with Dems), the natural beauty of the country, and the food.

But what about the beer?!

Scotland fans drank the pubs in Boston dry. At the Adams Taproom, they drank four times as much Boston Lager as the bar usually sells.

They better call for emergency deliveries because guess who’s in town next? England!

The English, like the Scots and other fans, are also loving America.

It must be a relief to breathe deep the fresh American air, and evade the P.C. Police in blighted Old Blighty.

The Three Lions (nickname for their teams) will play Ghana at Gillette Stadium (aka, Boston Stadium during the World Cup) next Tuesday — and they are not known to be teetotalers. 

This exuberant fan is not atypical as he endeavored to get drunk before, during, and after the game against Croatia in Dallas.

"We're going to get drunk before the game. We're going to get drunk during the game. And then we're going to get drunk after the game."

The match doesn't start for another few hours, but England fans have a plan. pic.twitter.com/RSBYt2oguh

— FOX 4 NEWS (@FOX4) June 17, 2026

To the birthplace of the American Revolution: The English are coming, the English are coming. Let’s have a proper Boston Beer Party. Should they turn into unruly hooligans, there’s always Boston Harbor to sober them up.

Even if the ale and lager procurers underestimate the fans’ drinking prowess, America’s munificence is unparalleled.

It’s so refreshing to hear the objective opinions of our gracious visitors (mostly unaffected and uninfected by TDS), contrasted to the damning Dems.

For example, imagine the leftist angst incurred when a fan admired a scantily-clad cheerleader; the Scot in this sincere scene was simply agog (I doubt the Scottish ladies tartan tans compare).

Tartan Army are not used to cheerleaders! 😂@WeAreSTVRadio pic.twitter.com/sY00udItqX

— Cat Harvey (@MissCatHarvey) June 14, 2026

No longer dependent on the leftist press, our World Cup visitors can believe their “lying eyes”: we are still the last great hope of Earth.

Therefore, when the U.N. or other pretentious “dumb-gentsia” group ranks the most “livable countries,” they should consider their ability to host such a spectacular spectacle.

Go USA!

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 14:20

FundStrat's Newton: Why Not Replace The FOMC With AI?

Short of abolishing the Fed (much preferred), would automating the Fed make more sense than the current system? Should we trust Kevin Warsh, Jerome Powell, and Lisa Cook to read the tea leaves each month and decree rate changes for us commoners? 

That was Fundstrat's Mark Newton’s suggestion during last night's ZeroHedge debate on his H2 market outlook. He pointed out the new chair’s plan to eliminate “forward guidance”, a term invented under the previous chair Powell in which the Fed strategically signals its plans on rate changes so that those signals themselves might change rates organically by market forces.

It’s all a big mess… but Newton and BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky also debated whether the AI trade is in a bubble and which sectors look like attractive investment opportunities. Here were Newton’s remarks on the Fed and other highlights, though we recommend watching the full debate at the end:

Automate The Fed

Fundstrat's Mark Newton believes incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could face a difficult balancing act from day one.

"I think he's got his work cut out for him," Newton said, noting that Warsh will be speaking for a Federal Reserve committee that has "turned clearly hawkish" while simultaneously facing pressure from an administration that "almost always wants to cut rates to juice the economy."

Rather than focusing on rate cuts themselves, Newton argued the biggest change under Warsh may be how the Fed communicates. "My take is that there's gonna be far less forward guidance or even a dot plot under Warsh, less communication," he said. Markets have become accustomed to a steady stream of comments from Fed officials, and Newton warned that the transition could create volatility as investors try to recalibrate.

WARSH: I THINK THAT MARKETS PERFORM BEST WHEN REACTING TO INCOMING DATA, THEY WORK LESS EFFICIENTLY WHEN THEY ASK HOW WILL THE FED REACT TO THAT INCOMING INFORMATION

Finally, the 4th wall falls

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

Newton also mused about automating the entire FOMC, questioning the dated practice of a council of economists working with clunky tools to periodically tinker with the entire nation's (and world’s) economy.

"If there's one area that's ripe for regime change by AI completely, it's the Federal Reserve," he said. "They're looking at data going back over the last few years to try to make decisions on whether to cut interest rates, which will take twelve to eighteen months to materialize in the economy. That does not make any sense in 2026."

pic.twitter.com/qLXBEgdTQs

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) June 19, 2026 "The AI trade will continue into 2028"

Where many see a bubble, Fundstrat's Mark Newton sees an opportunity.

"I do not see a bear market in technology," he said, arguing that the sector is likely headed for a period of consolidation rather than a major decline. Semiconductors may need to "back and fill" after their recent run, according to Newton.

He remains bullish on the longer-term AI story but did say there are signs that it’s overbought near-term. Newton highlighted the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the highly-watched Invesco Equal Weight Tech ETF.

"That's all a good thing for tech. It's just that when an RSI level of 78 on equal-weighted technology, it's not the best risk reward for me over the next three to six months."

On banks, REITs, travel, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors, Newton sees improving momentum, noting that "most European and also U.S. commercial banks have been showing very good strength" while REIT ETFs are "breaking out to multi-year highs."

"Consumers snapping back over the next couple months" following a ceasefire success, he said, would benefit airlines, hotels, and beaten-down discretionary names. Newton specifically likes Delta, Marriott, booking companies, and apparel Ralph Lauren. 

pic.twitter.com/pnOF5LInOu

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) June 19, 2026

Watch the full debate below, watch on Adam Taggart’s Thoughtful Money channel, or listen on Spotify.

https://t.co/jxITOFkt3p

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 18, 2026

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 13:45

Outrage As Suspect In UK Toddler Crocodile Attack Released On Bail; Identity Still Hidden

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

The insane attack at a family-run zoo in Cambridgeshire, UK has now produced a fresh outrage.

A three-year-old boy from the area remains in critical but stable condition at Addenbrooke's Hospital after being thrown into a crocodile enclosure.

Yet, the 30-year-old man from Norfolk arrested on suspicion of attempted murder has already been released on bail until 18 September. Police assessed him as "unfit for interview" and continue to withhold his identity from the public.

Man arrested after child, 3, 'thrown into crocodile enclosure' released as suspect 'unfit for interview' https://t.co/NRmW0yzmkL

- GB News (@GBNEWS) June 19, 2026

This follows the initial reporting of the incident at Johnson's of Old Hurst zoo near Huntingdon. As covered in our earlier piece on the initial incident and rampant online speculation about the identity of the man who was arrested.

The boy and the suspect were not known to each other, and detectives from the Major Crime Unit treated the case as a serious criminal investigation from the outset.

Cambridgeshire Police confirmed the release after the assessment. Detective Inspector Verity McCann stated: "Our enquiries are ongoing as we continue to understand the circumstances surrounding this distressing incident. Our thoughts remain with the boy and his family, and specialist officers continue to support them through this difficult time."

Witnesses described a heroic intervention that prevented an even worse outcome. The zoo owner's wife reportedly jumped 15 feet into the crocodile enclosure to pull the injured toddler to safety.

Staff administered immediate medical treatment at the scene before emergency services arrived. The boy suffered serious wounds from at least one crocodile attack inside the enclosure.

Reports indicate he suffered a broken arm, a broken pelvis, likely stemming from the impact after being thrown, as well as multiple crocodile bites during the incident on Thursday afternoon.

Public anger has erupted over the decision to release the suspect.

Many see the move as further evidence of a justice system that fails to prioritise the protection of children and the public when confronted with extreme violence.

? #BREAKING: It has been confirmed that the man who threw a 3-year-old toddler into a crocodile enclosure in the UK...

...HAS ALREADY BEEN LET OUT ON BOND!!!!

The man is being described as 'mentally disabled' and police are STILL refusing to name him.

Witnesses say the zoo... pic.twitter.com/uBhxXhJkWY

- Matt Van Swol (@mattvanswol) June 19, 2026

Imagine living in a country where you go straight to jail for a tweet, but get bail after being arrested for 'allegedly' throwing a 3 year old baby into a crocodile enclosure! The world is watching is disbelief! pic.twitter.com/Do1ljHSofF

- Liam Tuffs (@liamtuffs1) June 19, 2026

Lunatics who throw toddlers to crocodiles probably ought not to be on the streets. https://t.co/lIijFzPlIh

- Carl Benjamin ??????? (@Sargon_of_Akkad) June 19, 2026

The pattern of releasing individuals deemed too unwell for interview while leaving the public uninformed about their identity has fuelled widespread demands for transparency and stronger safeguards.

Critics argue that mental health assessments should not automatically translate into freedom to roam when the alleged act demonstrates clear and present danger to others.

Meanwhile, Sky News headlines have drawn sharp criticism for their choice of language. The outlet repeatedly described the boy as having "ended up in crocodile enclosure" rather than stating he was thrown there.

BREAKING: Man arrested after toddler ended up in crocodile enclosure 'not fit for interview' and released https://t.co/eBomHyjDvC

- Sky News (@SkyNews) June 19, 2026

One report opened with: "A three-year-old boy who was seriously injured after ending up in the crocodile enclosure at a Cambridgeshire zoo was attacked by at least one of the reptiles, Sky News understands."

An earlier Sky News post had used similar passive phrasing: "a boy has been taken to hospital with serious injuries and a man arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a toddler ended up in a crocodile enclosure in Huntingdonshire."

"Ended up". The toddler just ended up in the crocodile pit. Funny how all these kind of things end up isn't it. https://t.co/GeLLNAFhVX

- m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) June 19, 2026

This wording stands in contrast to more direct reporting elsewhere that used "thrown into" in the headline. Passive constructions like "ended up" minimise the deliberate nature of the assault and shift focus away from the perpetrator's actions toward vague circumstance.

In high-profile cases involving violence against children, precise language matters. Euphemisms erode public trust and fuel the very speculation authorities claim to want to avoid.

The decision to withhold the suspect's identity while confirming his release on bail until mid-September compounds the problem. A man arrested for allegedly hurling a defenceless three-year-old into a pit of crocodiles is back in the community.

Britain's justice system increasingly appears calibrated to protect processes and sensitivities over basic public safety. When posting opinions online can trigger swift arrest and denial of bail, yet an alleged attempt to feed a toddler to crocodiles results in prompt release, the imbalance is impossible to ignore.

The heroic actions of zoo staff saved a life that day. The authorities' response since has done little to reassure anyone that similar threats will be met with the seriousness they demand.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 13:10

US Probes Whether ASML's Advanced Chip Machine Ended Up In China

Not long after Shenzhen-based Huawei unveiled what it described as a breakthrough pathway for advanced semiconductor production at the recent IEEE ISCAS conference, the Trump administration raised concerns that one of Dutch chip-equipment giant ASML's extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, machines may have fallen into Chinese hands.

Bloomberg reports that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has raised concerns that one of ASML's EUV machines may have reached China despite US-led export controls.

ASML has pushed back on Lutnick's suggestion, explaining that none of its EUV machines, used to print the tiniest circuit patterns onto advanced computer chips, have ended up in the hands of the Chinese. This report is based on sources from the outlet who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.

ASML says all 314 of its operating EUV machines are accounted for globally.

More color from the outlet:

Multiple senior administration officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe a sensitive matter, said they have evidence indicating ASML is not acting in good faith — such as exports to China of gear specifically related to EUV tools, which ASML denied to Bloomberg. These US officials, who didn't comment on Lutnick's meetings with ASML, declined multiple requests from Bloomberg for proof of the shipments, citing the sensitivity of the information and sources. They also declined to say whether they have seen evidence of an actual EUV system in the Asian country.

The dispute adds pressure on ASML, with shares in Amsterdam trading down as much as 2% on Friday. Shares have advanced as much as 81% this year due to the AI and data center buildout narrative.

Here is Citi analyst Andrew Gardiner's first take on the US Government-ASML dispute:

According to Bloomberg (6/19), US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has told ASML of concerns that an EUV machine is in China, in contravention of regulations that prevent ASML from shipping EUV to China. No evidence for the claims was provided to journalists. ASML have reiterated publicly they have never shipped a machine or EUV parts to China. ASML can "see" each of the EUV tools running at customer fabs, as the machines send back data to ASML on their operations. ASML are now in the difficult position of trying to prove a negative, when no evidence is being furnished against their position. Given our time spent with ASML over the last two decades, including with current management in recent years, we find it very hard to believe that they would jeopardise their position in the industry, their reputation, or their technological leadership just to deliver an EUV tool to China.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Masahiro Wakasugi comments:

US concerns about Chinese chipmakers using advanced tools made by ASML might have little impact on its sales. Bloomberg News reports that in recent meetings, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed the concerns to ASML's leaders, saying one of its top machines might have made its way into China, violating US-led restrictions. But ASML says it has never shipped extreme ultraviolet lithography systems to China and has complied with tightening restrictions on deep ultraviolet tools. Also, using ASML machines to make advanced chips would probably require sophisticated tools from other foreign firms that also face restrictions. China is increasingly able to make more-advanced chips with legacy tools, so the US concerns may reflect Chinese engineering progress rather than any lapse in ASML's compliance with export controls.

Related:

• Inside The Chip Chokepoint: Goldman's Five Key Takeaways From ASML Visit

US concerns may reflect China's progress in developing advanced chips, especially after Huawei's announcement last month of a potential breakthrough in semiconductor production.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 12:35

Federal Court Allows National Park Service To Replace Slavery Exhibit In Philadelphia

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal appeals court ruled on June 18 that the Trump administration can move forward with replacing a slavery-related exhibit at Independence National Historical Park in Philadelphia.

FILE - A person views posted signs on the locations of the now removed explanatory panels that were part of an exhibit on slavery at President's House Site in Philadelphia, Jan. 23, 2026. AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File

The decision from the Philadelphia-based Third U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals reversed a lower court ruling that had blocked the National Park Service from removing the exhibit. The city of Philadelphia had won that earlier ruling after an exhibit describing George Washington’s ownership of enslaved people was taken down.

The exhibit, located at the President’s House historic site, was removed following an executive order signed by President Donald Trump aimed at eliminating what he described as efforts to portray the United States as fundamentally racist or oppressive. The order directed the Interior Department to review and revise historical displays in national parks across the country.

As part of that effort, the National Park Service removed an exhibit in January that focused on nine enslaved individuals who lived and worked at Washington’s Philadelphia residence.

Philadelphia sued, arguing that agreements with the federal government required the city to be consulted before significant changes were made to the site. U.S. District Judge Cynthia Rufe agreed and issued an injunction requiring the exhibit to remain.

However, the appeals court found that removing the exhibit was not an official agency action that could be challenged under the Administrative Procedure Act. Writing for the three-judge panel, Judge Thomas Hardiman said the Park Service’s planned replacement displays still address the history of the nine enslaved people while also noting Washington’s stated opposition to slavery later in life.

According to Hardiman, the new exhibits recognize the injustices of slavery and preserve the stories and humanity of the enslaved individuals who lived at the President’s House.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Interior Department for comment on the decision but did not receive a response by publication time.

Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker criticized the ruling and pledged to continue fighting it in court.

“I will pursue every legal action possible to reverse this decision. We cannot and WILL not rest until the full story of American history – including the existence of Slavery at the President’s House here in Philadelphia – is told, for our Nation and the World to see,” she posted on X on Thursday.

Despite the appeals court decision, the original exhibit may still be restored. In a separate case, U.S. District Judge Angel Kelley in Boston recently ordered the reinstatement of all national park exhibits that had been removed under Trump’s directive. Shortly after the appeals court ruling, Kelley declined to suspend her order while the administration appeals.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 12:00

Israel-Hezbollah Agree To Ceasefire After Clashes Stall Opening Round Of US-Iran Nuclear Talks

Summary:

• Israel and Hezbollah Agree To Ceasefire 
• Opening Round Of US-Iran Nuclear Talks Postponed After Israel-Lebanon Clashes Erupt 

Israel and Hezbollah Agree To Ceasefire

Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire that will begin on Friday at 4 p.m. local time, Reuters reported.

• ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH AGREE TO CEASEFIRE STARTING ON FRI: RTRS
• ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH AGREE ON CEASEFIRE FROM 4PM LOCAL: REUTERS

WTI futures tumbled on the ceasefire headline, falling from about $76.40 a barrel to $75.56, as traders priced in reduced geopolitical risk.

The earlier escalation between Israel and Hezbollah increasingly looks as if both sides were squeezing in last-minute strikes ahead of the ceasefire set to take effect later today.

The ceasefire - if it holds - now sets up for nuclear talks between US and Iran. 

Opening Round Of US-Iran Nuclear Talks Postponed After Israel-Lebanon Clashes Erupt 

Talks between Iran and the US were postponed on Friday in Switzerland, delaying what was supposed to be the opening round of negotiations towards a permanent peace and nuclear deal.

The delay appears to center on a new escalation between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon, a troubling development that threatens the fresh interim deal signed by President Trump and Iran just days ago. Tehran has insisted that a ceasefire in Lebanon is part of the interim deal, meaning the Israel-Hezbollah front could derail the US-Iran diplomatic path to a sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Financial Times provided more details on the overnight development:

Talks between Iran and the US in Switzerland were postponed due to Israel launching a wave of deadly air strikes on southern Lebanon, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Iran did not send a delegation to Switzerland for the nuclear talks because of the attacks, the people said. The interim agreement signed by the US and Iran on Wednesday stipulates the "immediate and permanent termination" of fighting, including in Lebanon.

A diplomat familiar with the Switzerland talks told the outlet:

The Iranians have asked for guarantees that hostilities in Lebanon will end, as outlined in the signed agreement, and mediators are currently working to resolve the issue.

According to other FT sources, Iran's position is effectively "no Lebanon, no deal," arguing that it has restrained Hezbollah while Washington has failed to restrain Israel.

Israeli airstrikes across more than 10 villages in southern Lebanon killed 18 people and wounded 33, according to Lebanon's health ministry.

⭕️WATCH: A Hezbollah launcher firing rockets toward IDF soldiers

In response to Hezbollah’s repeated & blatant ceasefire violations, the IDF struck 2 Hezbollah command centers in the Beqaa Valley, 80+ terror targets in southern Lebanon and eliminated dozens of Hezbollah… pic.twitter.com/NntfHM87vd

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 19, 2026

Itamar Ben Gvir, Israel's national security minister, reacted on X to the latest fighting in Lebanon:

For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn! With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not forfeit. All of Lebanon must burn. Our supreme duty is to protect the citizens of Israel and the soldiers of the IDF, and this commitment takes precedence over every other consideration. I told the Prime Minister, even in our private meetings: For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. Enough with the ping-pong. In the Middle East, you don't win with measured responses and restraint—you need to go berserk. To obliterate. To crush the terror.

על כל דמעה של אמא ישראלית, אלף אמהות לבנוניות צריכות לבכות. לבנון כולה צריכה לבעור!

עם כל הכבוד לאמריקאים, ישראל חייבת להבהיר לעולם כולו שדם בנינו וביטחון אזרחנו איננו הפקר. לבנון כולה צריכה לבעור. חובתנו העליונה היא להגן על אזרחי ישראל ועל חיילי צה״ל, והמחויבות הזו קודמת לכל…

— איתמר בן גביר (@itamarbengvir) June 19, 2026

Drop Site provided more color on the canceled talks:

• Al Mayadeen report earlier today that Iran's delegation suspended its trip to Geneva due to ongoing Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon.
• A White House spokesperson later said Vice President JD Vance, head of the US delegation, also canceled his planned trip to meet Iranian negotiators and begin talks on negotiating and implementing the postwar framework
• Reuters reported the delegation had been preparing to launch the first round of the agreement's 60-day negotiations. Tehran had previously told Washington and mediators that developments in Lebanon would be a key factor in whether talks proceed.

Pakistani journalist Kamran Yousaf wrote on X, "Pakistan has called back its advance team from Switzerland, throwing the next round of Iran-US talks into uncertainty."

He added, "With Tehran seemingly reluctant to engage at a European venue, diplomatic sources say Islamabad or Doha is now the most likely destination for the next round of negotiations."

BREAKING

Pakistan has called back its advance team from Switzerland, throwing the next round of Iran-US talks into uncertainty.

With Tehran seemingly reluctant to engage at a European venue, diplomatic sources say Islamabad or Doha is now the most likely destination for the…

— Kamran Yousaf (@Kamran_Yousaf) June 19, 2026

Beyond the overnight fighting in southern Lebanon, the takeaway is that the interim deal still gives Washington and Tehran a 60-day ceasefire window, immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz and creating a framework for eventual talks on Iran's nuclear program.

The problem now is that both sides need to control their proxies and allied partners. Tehran must keep its Hezbollah fighters restrained, while the Trump administration must keep its Israeli ally from escalating in Lebanon. Without that dual restraint, the 60-day ceasefire window could collapse.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 12:00

Appeals Court Allows Ohio To Restrict Children's Use Of Social Media

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal appeals court on Thursday allowed Ohio to enforce a law requiring social media companies to obtain parental consent before permitting children under 16 to access their platforms.

Instagram, TikTok, Snapchat, YouTube, Facebook, Twitch, and Reddit applications are displayed on a mobile phone on Dec. 9, 2025. Hollie Adams/Reuters

The law, known as the Social Media Parental Notification Act, was passed by the state's legislature in 2023 and took effect in January 2024. NetChoice - a trade group representing TikTok, Meta, and other major tech companies - later filed a lawsuit, alleging that the law was unconstitutional.

In April, U.S. District Judge Algenon Marbley ruled in NetChoice's favor and permanently blocked Ohio from enforcing the law. The state subsequently appealed the ruling.

In a 2-1 decision on June 18, a panel of the Sixth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals reversed the lower court ruling, finding that Ohio's law does not violate the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

Writing for the majority, Circuit Judge Eric Clay said the state law imposes only "a marginal burden" by requiring parental consent for children to use social media platforms.

"That requirement constitutes a marginal burden that precisely targets the multi-faceted problem that Ohio has identified: Children's unsupervised assent to terms and conditions for use of platforms that take advantage of and harm them," Clay said.

"Parental consent will not always be narrowly tailored to the compelling interest in protecting minors' well-being. It works here because the nature of the harm itself is that children's unsupervised use of social media puts them at risk of the adverse effects of prolonged and unregulated exposure."

Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson praised the appeals court's decision, calling it "a win for Ohio families."

Wilson said in a statement that the ruling would allow parents to supervise their children's use of social media.

"The court agreed that parents - not social media companies - should get a say in what kids see online. We have an obligation to keep our children safe, and today, the most dangerous place for our kids is the internet," he stated. "This decision gives parents the tools to be involved and provide oversight."

NetChoice said the appeals court's decision will threaten the online privacy and constitutional rights of Ohioan residents. The group suggested that it intends to continue the legal challenge.

"By requiring parents to override the government's determination, Ohio has violated bedrock First Amendment principles," Paul Taske, director of the NetChoice Litigation Center, said in a statement. "We are currently reviewing our options on how best to move forward."

NetChoice last year won court rulings blocking a similar social media parental consent law in Arkansas and a children's digital privacy law in California.

Australia became the first country last December to impose a ban on social media for children under 16 amid concerns about the online safety risks to the nation's youth.

Several countries have since followed suit or are weighing similar social media restrictions over concerns about the platforms' impact on children's mental health. Among those countries are the UK, Austria, Denmark, France, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 11:10

Russia Vows "Massive Group Strikes" On Ukraine After Drone Swarm Attack On Refinery

Ukraine's massive drone swarm attack on the Russian capital, targeting critical energy infrastructure including a major refinery and storage tank farms, has sparked fuel-shortage fears in Moscow while prompting Russia to warn Kyiv of "massive group strikes" in retaliation.

On Thursday, 200 Ukrainian suicide drones swarmed Gazprom's Moscow Refinery in what military observers are calling Kyiv's most brazen offensive of the four-year war to date.

Footage from the southeastern outskirts of the city showed the drone swarm attack and the resulting columns of black smoke billowing from the heavily damaged refinery and storage tank farms.

Additional footage of Russia’s Moscow oil refinery ablaze this morning after a successful Ukrainian drone attack. pic.twitter.com/34c27d565q

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 18, 2026

HOLY SMOKES! Moscow right now 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/Oxz4pLHIwQ

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) June 18, 2026

"It is no coincidence that the president announced some time ago, after yet another Kyiv terrorist attack, that we will now conduct massive group strikes on a regular basis against targets whose condition directly affects the combat readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters yesterday, according to Interfax.

Ukraine's drone attack appears to have targeted Russia's refining capacity, as concerns grow that fuel shortages could soon materialize in the capital area.

Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center in Berlin and a former Russian oil executive, told Bloomberg that a gas shortage in Moscow is now unavoidable.

"The authorities will do everything they can to bring fuel in from other regions," Vakulenko said. "However, rail capacity is not unlimited, and nearby refineries have also been damaged."

Kyiv has been pounding away at Russia's energy infrastructure with drones. The latest data from EA Analytics indicates that Russian crude-processing rates are set to drop to two-decade lows in June.

Here's TD Securities Roman Schweizer's first take on the attack:

The G7 confab happened without any major blowups. The formal declaration is here. Notably, the group promised support for UKR and tougher sanction on RUS. "We commit to increase the pressure on the Russian war economy. In this context, we will strengthen our sanctions, including those on the oil and gas sectors. We consider this the right moment to proceed with additional measures, as President Trump has delivered a deal that we support in reopening the Strait of Hormuz." UKR continues to make incredibly effective long-range strikes into Moscow, spectacularly hitting a storage tank at an oil refinery. There is stunning footage of black smoke billowing over Moscow (generating both real and psychological effects). The war isn't going well for Putin either tactically or strategically. UKR has seized the momentum - the big question is what comes next: a diplomatic off-ramp or military escalation? We struggle to see how RUS could do something to change the battlefield dynamics and worry that a desperate Putin might try something desperate.

What Russia's "massive group strikes" response will look like remains to be seen, but the threat of gray-zone sabotage across the West is rising. That could include a campaign of cyberattacks, arson, logistics disruption, rail and port interference, telecom or undersea-cable incidents, and attacks against defense supply-chain nodes supporting Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 10:45

The Crypto Risk No One Is Discussing

 Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

With bitcoin hovering near $65,000, down about 50% over the last year, the mood across crypto has become increasingly subdued lately.

For most of the 2020s, cryptocurrency transformed from a niche financial experiment into a major political issue. What began as a technology debate evolved into a cultural and ideological battleground, with Republicans increasingly positioning themselves as defenders of digital assets and free markets while Democrats often emphasized consumer protection, financial oversight, and regulatory scrutiny.

Aside from worrying about adoption, quantum computing and things like what would happen if Satoshi’s bitcoin ever moved, I see another major risk for bitcoin holders and crypto advocates that isn’t being talked about nearly as much as I think it should It’s not technological, macroeconomic or regulatory—at least not in the way most people think.

The real risk is political. And it starts with a simple question: What happens if Democrats come roaring back in 2026 and then win the White House in 2028?

For most of the decade, cryptocurrency has steadily moved from being a financial technology story to becoming a political identity. Republicans increasingly embraced crypto as a symbol of innovation, economic freedom, and resistance to government control. Democrats, meanwhile, have always positioned themselves as the party of oversight, consumer protection, and financial regulation. Elizabeth Warren is already foaming at the mouth over the SpaceX IPO.

Crypto bears nowadays argue that with the entire backing of the U.S. political apparatus, bitcoin has had trouble holding a price in the six figures. This must mean adoption has peaked. As Peter Schiff never misses an opportunity to remind bitcoin investors, if an asset can't stay above major price milestones after getting ETFs, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, half of X, and a crypto-friendly federal government cheering it on, maybe the problem isn't a lack of catalysts. Maybe the catalysts have already been spent.

In that case, most investors wouldn’t just be betting on bitcoin anymore. They’d be betting on a political environment that appears unusually favorable to crypto. The White House is openly supportive. Regulators have eased their tone. Congress is debating legislation that could provide long-awaited clarity for digital assets. Not surprisingly, capital flowed back into the sector in the first year of the Trump administration.

The entire crypto ecosystem has become increasingly intertwined with that political backdrop…and now our financial system.

Michael Saylor continues to use Strategy as a giant bitcoin acquisition vehicle despite growing questions about how some of the company’s securities are trading relative to their underlying economics.

Strategy is now trading at a discount to its estimated net asset value, while Saylor’s STRC preferred product recently closed around 91 cents on the dollar—nearly 10% below par. I wrote a warning about this product back in April while Michael Saylor was taking daily victory laps on X about how it kept closing at par. Those days are over.

As this is all occurring in the background, the broader message remains that crypto still has powerful political allies. And at a time where things already are looking shaky in crypto, that confidence may be setting up the industry’s next major vulnerability. Because if Democrats regain power, they are unlikely to view crypto through the same favorable lens.

So by 2028, cryptocurrency may no longer be viewed simply as an emerging technology sector or a new asset class. It could instead become one of the defining symbols of the Trump era itself. Trump family members, business entities, and individuals closely connected to the administration have reportedly generated more than $2 billion in crypto-related wealth “while more than a million investors lost the same amount on the other side of those trades”.

Chances are, Elizabeth Warren and her merry band of socialists aren’t going to be overjoyed about that. And political battles are often fought over narratives, symbols, and perceived abuses of power.

By the end of a second Trump term, many Democrats may see crypto not as a neutral technology but as a financial ecosystem deeply intertwined with the political movement they are trying to defeat.

That creates a potentially dangerous setup for investors. Democrats would not need to argue that bitcoin itself is inherently harmful or that blockchain technology lacks value. Instead, they could frame the industry as a vehicle for conflicts of interest, political favoritism, speculative excess, and extraordinary wealth creation among a relatively small group of well-connected insiders. That is a much easier argument to make, particularly to voters who do not own digital assets and are unlikely to lose sleep over the fortunes of stablecoin issuers, token promoters, crypto treasury companies, or billionaires who have amassed enormous wealth through the sector.

Every political era eventually produces a reaction, and the stronger the pendulum swings in one direction, the harder it often swings back. If Democrats conclude that the Trump years were characterized by excessive deregulation, blurred lines between public office and private business interests, and a speculative boom that disproportionately benefited insiders, financial markets could become a major target for reform. Crypto would almost certainly find itself near the top of that list.

The range of potential initiatives is broad. Lawmakers could pursue tougher disclosure requirements for elected officials and their families, expand insider trading enforcement, increase reporting obligations for large investors and corporate insiders, and devote greater resources to investigating market manipulation and politically connected investment vehicles. While those proposals might be presented as ethics reforms or good-governance measures, their practical impact could extend well beyond Washington and reshape how capital flows throughout financial markets.

Cryptocurrency would be exposed. A future Democratic administration could seek expanded SEC authority over digital assets, tougher anti-money-laundering standards, more aggressive know-your-customer requirements, stricter oversight of stablecoins, enhanced reporting obligations for exchanges and wallet providers, tighter rules governing token issuance, and new restrictions on decentralized finance platforms. Basically, the total opposite of what this administration is doing: pardoning various white collar criminals and exploiting the public markets for personal gain.

Congress could also revisit broader financial reforms that seem politically unrealistic today but could quickly gain momentum under a different political environment, including transaction taxes, stricter leverage limits, expanded beneficial ownership disclosures, enhanced monitoring of digital asset transactions, and greater scrutiny of corporate treasury strategies built around cryptocurrency holdings.

None of these measures would require banning bitcoin, and that is the point many investors miss. Governments do not need to prohibit an activity outright to change behavior. They simply need to increase compliance costs, reporting requirements, legal uncertainty, and regulatory complexity enough to make investors, institutions, and corporations think twice before committing capital. Markets are extraordinarily sensitive to incentives, and they are also forward-looking. By the time new rules are formally enacted, much of the repricing may have already occurred.

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If investors begin to believe that a decent Democratic performance in 2026 could happen, and a Democratic sweep is possible in 2028, they could think about how it may usher in a significantly tougher regulatory environment. And then, crypto prices may not wait for Election Day to react. Capital could begin adjusting months in advance. Investors would price in future restrictions, valuations would come under pressure, policymakers could point to declining prices as evidence that speculative excess is being wrung out of the system, and the resulting weakness could generate additional political support for further reforms. In that scenario, the expectation of regulation becomes nearly as powerful as regulation itself.

Supporters of such policies would insist that none of this constitutes a crackdown. They would argue that it represents a long-overdue return to accountability after years of meme speculation, regulatory arbitrage, and politically connected wealth creation. Critics would see something very different, calling it political retaliation disguised as financial reform. Both sides would undoubtedly believe they are acting in the public interest. Markets, however, tend to care less about motives than outcomes, and the outcome for crypto could be painful.

At the moment, most investors are focused elsewhere. They are watching bitcoin hover around $65,000. They are tracking ETF flows, following Michael Saylor’s latest purchases, and celebrating every headline that appears to confirm crypto’s growing acceptance within the American financial system. What they may not be watching closely enough is the possibility that the industry’s political victories are laying the groundwork for its future political vulnerability.

If Democrats retake Congress in 2026 and capture the White House in 2028, the debate surrounding cryptocurrency could change dramatically. The conversation may no longer revolve around adoption, innovation, or even bitcoin itself. Instead, it could become a broader referendum on the political and financial ecosystem that grew around crypto during the Trump years.

And if that happens, the next major crypto bear market lower from here may not begin with a recession, a bankruptcy, or a technological failure. It may begin with an election.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 10:20

"No Greater Threat To America's Way Of Life": Senate Unanimously Passes Resolution To Condemn CCP Leader Xi Jinping

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times,

U.S. senators have voiced support for ordinary Chinese people and denounced communist regime leader Xi Jinping for lying to Americans and committing human rights abuses.

The U.S. Senate unanimously approved on June 16 by voice vote a resolution (Senate Resolution 444) condemning Xi for “deceit, undermining prospects for peace and security, and orchestrating crimes against humanity.”

The resolution also encourages the U.S. government and its agencies to use all available tools—including the authorities under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, which allow sanctions against individuals responsible for serious human rights violations or corruption—to hold Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials accountable.

The vote came just a day after Xi’s 73rd birthday.

“There is no greater threat to America’s way of life, peace, and prosperity in the world than Xi Jinping and the CCP,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who introduced the resolution earlier this month, told the Senate before the vote.

“Xi Jinping hates us. Communist China wants to destroy us. He is not a partner. He is not a competitor. He is a brutal dictator leading a criminal organization that lies, cheats, steals, exploits slave labor, and commits genocide and crimes against humanity on an industrial scale.”

Under Xi’s leadership, the CCP covered up the COVID-19 outbreak after it first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019, allowing it to develop into a global pandemic.

The resolution notes that the CCP lied to the world about where the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, originated and how easily it was transmitted, while using international organizations such as the World Health Organization to “peddle falsehoods.”

As a result of these deceptions, more than 1 million people died from COVID-19 in the United States alone, according to the resolution.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Grapevine, Texas, on March 28, 2026. Leandro Lozada/AFP via Getty Images

In addition to the global pandemic, the resolution also highlights the CCP’s role in the fentanyl crisis in the United States.

Xi pledged, in 2019 and again in 2023, to work more closely with the U.S. government to curb the flow of fentanyl precursors from the country. Despite these promises, more than 70,000 Americans died from fentanyl overdoses in recent years, with the 2025 National Drug Threat Assessment identifying fentanyl and other synthetic drugs as the “primary drivers of fatal drug overdose deaths nationwide,” the resolution stated.

On the trade front, Xi “doubled down” on the CCP’s decades-long “tradition of cheating,” the resolution stated.

When the Clinton administration sponsored China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the CCP promised to transition to a more market-oriented economy, including reducing state control of trade and protecting intellectual property.

However, after more than 25 years, the CCP still “fails to uphold many” of those promises and continues to violate WTO obligations, the resolution stated.

Espionage and cyberattacks have also surged, according to the resolution. In 2017, for instance, four Chinese military-backed hackers carried out a cyberattack against the U.S. credit company Equifax and stole the personal information of about 145 million Americans, according to the FBI.

More than 60 espionage cases linked to the CCP were documented in 20 U.S. states from February 2021 to December 2024, according to the resolution.

Among these was a naturalized U.S. citizen who, in December 2024, pleaded guilty to conspiring to act as an agent of the Chinese regime in relation to running a secret Chinese police station in New York City.

The resolution cites the CCP’s records of human rights violations, including the massacre of student-led protesters demanding political reform and greater freedom at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in June 1989.

Even 36 years later, the bloody repression continues to serve as a “stark reminder of the sheer evil and cowardice” of the CCP and its inability to quash the aspirations of the Chinese people, according to the resolution.

It also highlights the regime’s ongoing abuses, such as the state-sanctioned practice of killing prisoners of conscience—most notably Falun Gong practitioners—for organs.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said that he spoke directly with Xi about releasing Lai during his recent visit to Beijing, but that Xi called Lai’s case “a tougher one” for him.

Scott, in a June 16 statement, called for courage and action.

“The CCP, especially under Xi Jinping’s tyranny, has a particular brand of evil,” Scott said in a statement. “They seek to control the world, and in their mind, that means destroying anyone who stands in their way—whether it’s their own people or not.

“We cannot be afraid to stand up to our enemies and hold the line for the next generation of Americans.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 09:30

UK Gilt Yields Spike As Burnham Win Opens Door To Oust Starmer

The odds of embattled UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer being ousted by the end of July are soaring this morning...

...after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham won a decisive victory for the ruling Labour Party that delivers him a seat in Parliament and, with it, a pathway to challenge Starmer for his job.

Burnham was elected in a standalone contest for the constituency of Makerfield, in northwestern England, with a convincing 54.8% of the vote. He defeated Robert Kenyon from Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK, who secured 34.5%, while third-placed Restore Britain registered just under 7%.

In a post on X, Starmer congratulated his rival on his victory.

“Voters chose Labour’s campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate,” he wrote.

Farage said he was “disappointed,” in a video posted after the result.

Addressing voters who left his party for Restore he asked:

“What do you want? We are the challenger party to the left in this country, and I would urge you to think again.”

A defiant Starmer said in response that he would run against Burnham in any leadership contest.

“If there is one, I’ll stand,” he told broadcasters on Friday morning, hours after Burnham’s victory:

“I’m not going to walk away.”

As Bloomberg reports, the prime minister’s fortunes have faded after he led his party to a dismal showing in the May locals, where Reform gained ground. In the aftermath, almost a quarter of Labour’s more-than 400 MPs called on Starmer to go.

“Tonight could, just could, be the turning point,” Burnham said after the results were announced to loud cheers from his supporters.

“I do say to my own party, this is a final chance to change.”

“We must hear it, we must act upon it, and we must get it right,” he said.

“There will be no second chance.”

Despite, Burnham's ruling out changing the government’s limits on borrowing if he were to gain power, in a bid to reassure investors about his fiscal plans, his win pushed Cable slightly lower and gilt yields notably higher:

 “With Burnham having made a statement win, the next few months will likely see domestic political risks dominating headlines in the UK and as a result markets pricing in real political risk premium,” said Megum Muhic, a strategist at RBC.

Burnham has the best (least worst) ratings of any major UK politician...

“The prime minister is now in political quicksand,” James Lyons, Starmer’s former director of communications, told Sky News.

“There is now a very good chance that Andy Burnham will be installed as prime minister without a contest,” he said, adding that the size of the win makes that more likely.

If Starmer steps down or is voted out by the Labour Party membership, the UK would usher in its fifth prime minister in less than four years.

What happens next? Here is a concise breakdown of key events from The Times political editor Steven Swinford.

• Cabinet ministers will this afternoon tell Sir Keir Starmer to set out a timeline for his departure in the wake of Andy Burnham's by-election victory in Makerfield
• The prime minister is holding a series of meetings and calls with ministers and Labour MPs. The Times has been told that 'multiple' cabinet ministers will tell him that his "time is up". Senior figures in No 10 are also telling Starmer it is time to go
• Starmer insists he is going nowhere. He is planning to use the calls to make the case for his Premiership and try to shore up support
• His pitch is twofold: 1) A contest will tear the party apart and 2) We are delivering - NHS waiting lists are falling, the number of small boat crossings is down, legal migration if falling. 'The worst thing we can do is take our foot off the gas'
• Cabinet ministers say there is no route through this. It's about accepting political reality and leaving with dignity
• We're now locked in a debilitating stalemate. Neither Andy Burnham nor Keir Starmer wants a leadership contest, for very different reasons - Burnham because he favours a coronation, Starmer because he wants to stay in power and believes a challenge will rip the party apart
• Starmer is insisting he will fight any challenge. Allies say he has a £100,000 war-chest and all the infrastructure -including key staffers, campaign literature etc - in place. He is ready to go
• Burnham allies think Number 10 has lost contact with reality. They argue that on any measure it is over for Starmer and that he should accept reality and stand down. They accuse him on to power and say his position is untenable
• It looks increasingly like Burnham and Starmer may not talk until next week. As per @PronouncedAlva
• Burnham has his list of nominations ready to go - 200+ - and is prepared to hand them over to Starmer to pressure him into going
• The situation is clearly unsustainable. So how will the deadlock be broken? First, pressure from backbenchers - 100 Labour MPs have now called for him to go. That number will only rise this weekend
• Second, pressure from Cabinet ministers as above. But here's the rub - we have been here before and he has just ignored them. Shabana Mahmood, Ed Miliband, John Healey, Wes Streeting... the list is getting longer and longer. We are somewhere between a rock and a hard place.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 09:05

Futures Rebound, Oil Slides, After Israel And Hezbollah Agree To Ceasefire

Update: the Yo-Yo insanity that is the on again, off again Iran war. Moments after we reported that futures and global risk assets had sold off overnight on a delay to today's start of peace talks in Switzerland due to Iran's protest of ongoing violence in Lebanon, moments ago Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah have ​agreed to a ‌ceasefire set to begin at 4 ​p.m. local time ​on Friday, citing a senior US official ​

“Hezbollah and ​Israel have agreed to a ceasefire,” the official ​said on ​background, adding that negotiators for ‌the ⁠U.S. and Qataris worked out the deal with ​help from ​Iran. “We ⁠understand that after the ​exchange of fire ​earlier ⁠today, Israel and Hezbollah are ⁠now ​in a ​ceasefire.”

The report was confirmed by an Israeli official speaking to the Jerusalem Post: "We have entered a ceasefire. We will continue to act against threats and will remain in the Strip. If Hezbollah harms our soldiers or civilians, we will respond forcefully".

In kneejerk reaction, S&P futures which were down 0.4% erased half their losses...

... while oil dropped from session highs.

And now we wait the inevitable next reversal of this neverending newsflow yoyo.

* * * 

Earlier: 

With US markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, global stocks are ending a strong week on a cautious note as the recent relief over an interim peace deal between the US and Iran gave way to a focus on the challenges of securing a lasting agreement. As of 8:30am, S&P 500 futures slid 0.4% after the benchmark posted its best week since the end of May (despite the drop, the S&P is still up on the week, and up 11 of the past 12). Europe’s Stoxx 600 was little changed, while Asian stocks retreated 0.4% from an all-time high. Markets in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan were shut as well.

Brent crude rebounded from the lowest price since the start of the war, and fluctuated near $80 a barrel as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appeared to thin on Friday, just a day after a pledge by the US and Iran to lift a dual blockage prompted a burst in oil flows.

Precious metals, which had already dropped ahead of the overnight escalation, extended losses with gold dropping to the mid-$4100s.

Talks on a permanent deal between Washington and Tehran that were meant to be held in Switzerland on Friday have been delayed, after Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants clashed overnight in Lebanon, a development the Financial Times reported was behind the postponement. Iran has made a truce in Lebanon a condition of its preliminary deal with the US. At the same time, the White House announced late on Thursday that Vance would not be traveling to the talks and said the logistics had not been "simple or predictable".

The latest snafu comes a day after the US dropped its naval blockade of Iran after the two countries signed a deal aimed at ending the conflict.

“Of course, with Trump there can always be some derailment along the way, but we believe that we’re set into a new phase of de-escalation,” said Alexandre Drabowicz at Indosuez Wealth Management. “There are 60 planned days of negotiations,” he said, advising investors not to rush to conclusions about a permanent deal.

Meanwhile in the UK, gilts led a rise in European bond yields after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham won a seat in Parliament, handing him a pathway to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for his job. Investors are debating whether a Burnham premiership might shift to a looser fiscal policy (spoiler alert: yes).

In rates, the pound outperformed most major currencies, while the dollar held at its highest level since March. Bitcoin fell for a fourth consecutive day. 

Despite today's hiccup, global markets are wrapped in a debt-funded AI euphoria: stocks are closing a pivotal week marked by the US-Iran interim deal, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting and the early days of SpaceX as a public company. Stocks have shown unprecedented resilience, buoyed by the frenzy around artificial intelligence and the billions of debt dollars funding it on the assumption that cheaper Chinese alternatives will not be able to dethrone expensive, token-sucking US incumbents.

Strategists surveyed by Bloomberg have raised their S&P 500 year-end targets from a month ago as Iran war disruptions eased and the earnings outlook improved. The average target climbed to 7,716 from 7,612 in May. That’s almost 3% higher than the last close and implies a near 13% gain for the year. Earnings estimates also increased for this year and next.

“Markets seem to be entering a rare couple of weeks with no major catalysts ahead,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank. “Hopefully, this is a chance to take a breather after a hectic year, and possibly also a period of sector rotation.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 08:51